## 1. Priority Recommendations

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### Summary of mission outcomes and priority recommendations
- Mission: IMF AFRITAC Central technical assistance in national accounting, Brazzaville, December 5–14, 2018.
- Focus: analysis of the 2016 and 2017 annual national accounts finalized in accordance with the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA).
- Key actions completed:
  - 2016 accounts completed and finalized, including summary tables – supply and use tables (SUT), branch accounts, and integrated economic accounts table (IEAT).
  - 2017 accounts being finalized.
  - Revision of consumption of fixed capital (CFC) and calculation of general government sector (GGS) production and value added for 2015–2017.
  - Corrections to extrapolations for branches using businesses’ combined statistical and tax returns (DSF) through balanced sampling.
  - Review and corrections of intermediate consumption matrices and technical coefficients (base year 2005).
  - One-day SNA training session for national accounting staff.
- Constraints noted:
  - National accounting staff largely hired in the last five years and had been without work for two years due to lack of office space and equipment.
  - Mission was unable to obtain business directory and VAT files from the Ministry of Finance; meeting with Director General of Taxes was not secured.
- Recommended immediate actions (summary Table 1):
  - March 2019: Adjust products modified by the mission's corrections and branch accounts; incorporate corrections in accounts at constant prices. (Agency: INS)
  - June 2019: Document the methodology applied in compiling the accounts. (Agency: INS)
  - June 2019: Make arrangements with the Ministry of Finance to obtain the corporate file annually and the VAT file quarterly. (Agency: INS)

### Analysis of the 2016 and 2017 national accounts — main findings
- Supply and use balances by product calculated for both years for 20 products, at current prices and constant prices.
- Branch production and operations accounts finalized through gross operating surplus for both 2016 and 2017; IEAT finalized for 2016 and being compiled for 2017.
- Use of base year and coefficients:
  - Accounts for 2016 and 2017 are based on coefficients from the intermediate uses table (IUT) and ratios from base year 2005; growth rates applied to the 2005 accounts through 2017.
  - Technical coefficients used for projection of intermediate consumption by product are those from base year 2005; for some branches the resulting product consumption figures are unrealistic (examples cited: fresh fish consumed by the trade branch, crude oil consumed by the food industries branch).
- Agricultural branches:
  - Conversion of current prices to constant prices for agricultural branches based on population growth rate as the volume index and household final consumption price index as the price index.
  - For agricultural branches other than forestry, national accounting officers used the population growth rate (three percent) as an alternative indicator of volume growth, and indices of household consumption prices relating to agricultural products as the price index.
  - Primary sector accounts (excluding forestry) projected each year from base year 2005 by applying an annual volume growth rate equal to the population growth rates (three percent) and an index of household consumption prices for agricultural products.
- Branches using DSF data:
  - Extrapolation method: growth in sales of businesses filing DSFs used to estimate production for year n+1 from year n; however, samples between successive years differed, producing biased growth rates.
  - Mission corrected growth rates by taking comparable/balanced samples between successive years and adding production of newly created businesses when applicable (no new businesses were created during the period in question).
  - Example correction: for “other manufacturing industries” sector, growth rate in value for 2015 is 5.9 percent rather than 66.2 percent. Using the same price index, the volume index would be 2.7 percent rather than 61.2 percent. Productions for 2016 and 2017 should be recalculated based on corrected 2015 production (growth rates for subsequent years were correct).
- Hydrocarbons and forestry:
  - Hydrocarbon extraction and petroleum refinery accounts estimated indirectly: exports data used for crude petroleum; refinery DSF used to determine portion sold to the local refinery; production converted annually to constant prices using known hydrocarbon and refined product prices.
  - Forest products branch accounts estimated based on data from the Congolese forest product export company (Société d’exportation des produits forestiers du Congo, SEPFC); local consumption estimated from Ministry of Forest Economy data.
- Quarrying:
  - Quarrying is entirely informal; estimates based on correlation with construction and public works (CPW) sector; mission recommended using the 2005 household consumption survey to capture informal sector.

### Capacity strengthening and methodological issues
- Training and tools:
  - One-day SNA course covering transactions in goods and services and revenue distribution operations; conversion between economic aggregates explained (GDP, gross national product, gross disposable income, gross saving, net lending/net borrowing).
  - Cross-reference table prepared to convert business accounting (DSF balance sheets and income statements) to SNA operations; methods presented to calculate dividends and gross fixed capital formation from corporate balance sheets.
  - 2016 and 2017 accounts compiled in Excel pending validation; planned incorporation into automated system ERETES after validation.
- Recommended documentation:
  - Write up and publish the methodology adopted for compiling the accounts to facilitate staff turnover and user understanding.

### Detailed technical evaluation and prioritized action plan (selected items)
- A. Finalize the 2016 and 2017 national accounts
  - High priority: Re-balance products impacted by corrections and branch accounts; input corrections to accounts at constant prices. Target Completion Date: March 2019.
  - Medium priority: Calculate different economic aggregates as presented by the mission after finalization of the IEAT for 2016 and 2017. Target Completion Date: March 2019.
  - Low priority: Recalculate technical coefficients in input-output tables adapted to intermediate consumptions corrected by the mission, to be applied to definitive 2016 and 2017 accounts. Target Completion Date: June 2019.
  - High priority: Write up the methodology applied in compiling the accounts. Target Completion Date: June 2019.
  - Medium priority: Publish the methodological notes. Target Completion Date: June 2019.
- B. Improve production of the national accounts
  - High priority: Follow up with Ministry of Finance (tax directorate) to obtain master file of businesses and annual updates and establish a business directory at INS for sampling and extrapolation. Target Completion Date: March 2019.
  - Medium priority: Obtain quarterly VAT collected file with corresponding revenue for future compilation of quarterly accounts. Target Completion Date: December 2019.
  - Low priority: Establish contact with social security entities to obtain affiliated units, staff employed, and salaries distributed to improve business directory and provide statistics on unemployment and salaries. Target Completion Date: December 2019.
- Recommended corrective actions (mission recommendations)
  - Correct the 2016 and 2017 accounts prior to publication, incorporating the comments and correction methods initiated by the mission.
  - Establish contact with the Ministry of Finance to obtain listings of businesses and sales by business, subject to confidentiality mechanisms.
  - Write up the methodology adopted for compilation of the accounts and publish it with the accounts.

### Revisions to branch production estimates (findings and mission corrections)
- Electricity and water branches:
  - Accounts based on DSFs of the national electricity corporation (SNE) and the national water distribution corporation (SNDE).
  - Mission noted electricity production increased by 1 percent in 2016 relative to 2015 while total production of the productive sectors fell by 13 percent and household consumption declined by 4.5 percent; mission recommends accountants review the SNE’s DSF and recalculate production.
- Other Manufacturing Industries (Table 2 corrections at current prices):
  - 2015:
    - Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate 66.2%; Production value 369,975.
    - Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate 5.9%; Production value 235,730.
    - Impact on national production — -1.1%.
    - Impact on GDP — -1.0%.
  - 2016:
    - Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate -14.5%; Production value 316,467.
    - Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate -14.5%; Production value 201,660.
    - Impact on national production — -1.0%.
    - Impact on GDP — -1.0%.
  - 2017:
    - Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate -9.0%; Production value 288,107.
    - Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate -9.0%; Production value 183,591.
    - Impact on national production — -0.9%.
    - Impact on GDP — -0.9%.

### Construction sector (CPW) — estimation issues and corrections
- Finding: CPW sector estimated as a whole using DSFs by applying sales growth rates between successive years to 2005 production; samples differ across years causing incorrect growth rates.
- Mission recommendation: divide sector into (i) residential construction, (ii) nonresidential construction, and (iii) civil engineering; use balanced sampling (consistent samples) to recalculate growth rates and sector production at current prices.
- Construction (Table 3 corrections at current prices):
  - 2015:
    - Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate +11%; Amounts at current prices 2,713,472.
    - Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate -29%; Amounts at current prices 1,732,720.
    - Impact on national production — 9%.
    - Impact on GDP — 8%.
  - 2016:
    - Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate -39%; Amounts at current prices 1,574,847.
    - Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate -53%; Amounts at current prices 740,178.
    - Impact on national production — 8%.
    - Impact on GDP — 6.5%.
  - 2017:
    - Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate -23%; Amounts at current prices 1,210,894.
    - Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate -24%; Amounts at current prices 562,535.
    - Impact on national production — 6.5%.
    - Impact on GDP — 5.3%.

### Trade, Transport, Hotel & Restaurant, and Other Market Services
- Trade sector:
  - Production estimated from DSFs and adjusted by sum of commercial margins on goods; margins have been constant since 2005 accounts.
  - Mission recommends recalculating margins for each year based on available DSFs.
- Transport sector:
  - Production estimated from DSFs and adjusted by commercial margins on transport of goods; activity estimated as a whole without breakdown by mode of transport; mission notes lack of disaggregation.
- Hotel, bar, and restaurant branch:
  - Finding: growth rates computed from DSFs use inconsistent samples across years leading to sampling differences in growth rates.
  - Mission action: recalculated growth rates using fixed samples and recalculated branch production.
  - Table 4 corrections at current prices:
    - 2015:
      - Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate 9%; Amounts at current prices 369,451.
      - Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate -18%; Amounts at current prices 277,967.
      - Impact on national production — 0.8%.
      - Impact on GDP — 1.8%.
    - 2016:
      - Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate 3%; Amounts at current prices 380,285.
      - Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate -11%; Amounts at current prices 247,391.
      - Impact on national production — 1.3%.
      - Impact on GDP — 2.0%.
    - 2017:
      - Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate -5%; Amounts at current prices 361,271.
      - Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate -13%; Amounts at current prices 215,230.
      - Impact on national production — 1.3%.
      - Impact on GDP — 1.9%.
- Other market services (Table 5 corrections at current prices):
  - 2016:
    - Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate 60%; Amounts at current prices 880,305.
    - Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate 49%; Amounts at current prices 819,973.
    - Impact on national production — 0.6 %.
    - Impact on GDP — 6.6 %.
  - 2017:
    - Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate 12%; Amounts at current prices 984,758.
    - Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate 12%; Amounts at current prices 918,369.
    - Impact on national production — 0.6 %.
    - Impact on GDP — 6.9 %.

### Rental, financial services, and telecommunications findings
- Rental of dwellings:
  - Estimated using 2005 household consumption survey and 2007 population census; volume growth uses population growth of 3 percent annually; household consumption prices index for rental used to estimate current prices.
  - Population survey provides stock of housing and distribution owners/renters used to estimate actual and imputed rent.
- Financial services (banks, insurance, auxiliary):
  - Currently estimated by projection using a 3 percent volume index (population growth) and a 3 percent price index.
  - DSFs available for all banks and insurance companies; mission recommends using these DSFs to estimate production and intermediate consumption.
  - Mission presented methodology for calculating FISIM based on receivables and debts to allow breakdown by institutional sector, aiding transition to SNA 2008.
- Telecommunications and postal services:
  - Directorate General of the Economy centrally manages data from four telecommunications operators; production and value added calculated from DSFs.
  - Postal services provided by two private companies; public postal service currently not included — mission recommends including it in definitive accounts.

### General Government Sector (GGS) CFC and production corrections
- GGS scope: central government, local authorities, social security agencies, administrative public entities other than healthcare and education. Intermediate consumption and salary payments for central government based on general government budget; social security amounts taken from agencies’ documents.
- CFC:
  - Originally calculated using a model based on 20 years of GGS gross fixed capital formation.
  - Mission recalculated CFC and its repercussions on public administration (GGF) production, value added, and final consumption.
- Table 6 correction of GGS CFC and production:
  - CFC in the current accounts:
    - 2015: 334,783
    - 2016: 331,979
    - 2017: 328,183
  - CFC corrected by the mission:
    - 2015: 135,000
    - 2016: 235,000
    - 2017: 218,000
  - Correction of production:
    - 2015: - 199 783
    - 2016: - 96 979
    - 2017: - 110 183
  - Correction of value added:
    - 2015: - 199 783
    - 2016: - 96 979
    - 2017: - 110 183
  - Impact on GDP:
    - 2015: -2.6%
    - 2016: -1.4%
    - 2017: -1.5%
- Finding: total GGF production currently broken down into market and nonmarket production using same proportions as in 2005; mission presented method to break down production and recommended using TOFE (government fiscal reporting table) to recalculate productions.
- Conversion to constant prices currently uses general household consumption price index; mission recommends using civil service salary increases as a price index or increase in total civil service employees as the volume index for future accounts.

### Supply-Use Tables (SUT), intermediate consumption matrix, and base-year projection
- SUTs for 2015–2017 prepared by projecting technical coefficients of the IUT for base year 2005 applied to branches’ current-year productions. Branch accounts used to project productions and intermediate consumptions according to 2005 input-output coefficients to produce production and intermediate consumption matrices by product for 20 products in each of 20 branches; intended results will be used to produce supply-use balances by product.
- Mission analyzed and corrected inconsistencies in the intermediate consumption matrix for 2015 and recommended proportional corrections for 2016 and 2017.
- Table 7 corrections of Intermediate Consumption (selected items and impacts):
  - Selected recommended re-allocations shown in the matrix (examples):
    - Fishing products: 2,132 shifted (-2132)
    - Crude oil: -4,856 and 4,856 reallocations resulting in net 0
    - Chemical products: -10,000, -30,000 and 40,000 reallocations net 0
    - Electricity: -5,000 and 5,000 net 0
    - Construction: -5,000, -10,000, 15,000 net 0
    - Telecom: -30,000, -20,000, 50,000 net 0
    - Other market services: -300,000, 30,000, 50,000, 20,000, 100,000, 100,000 net 0
  - Total row (selected): -335000 2276 5000 4856 50000 20000 -35000 -2132 40000 50000 100000 100000 0
  - Value added in the current accounts (by branch, selected):
    - Hydrocarbon extraction 1,788683
    - Food industries 314433
    - Woodworking, fabric, wood or basketry items 15950
    - Chemical industries 20700
    - Other manufacturing industries 184780
    - Production and distribution of electricity and water 62696
    - Construction 1,593595
    - Trade 698358
    - Transportation 435258
    - Telecom 153429
    - Other market services 408690
    - General government sector 507230
    - Total 6,183802
  - Value added corrected by the mission (by branch, selected):
    - Hydrocarbon extraction 2,123683
    - Food industries 312157
    - Woodworking, fabric, wood or basketry items 10950
    - Chemical industries 15844
    - Other manufacturing industries 134780
    - Production and distribution of electricity and water 42696
    - Construction 1,628595
    - Trade 700490
    - Transportation 395258
    - Telecom 103429
    - Other market services 308690
    - General government sector 407230
    - Total 6,183802

### Identified inconsistencies and proposed methodological corrections (mission recommendations)
- Correct accounts for 2015, 2016, and 2017 prior to publication in March 2019, incorporating mission comments and correction methods.
- After correction, enter accounts into the ERETES system before preparing final third quarter 2019 accounts.
- Establish contact with the Ministry of Finance in 2019 to obtain lists of businesses and sales by business under confidentiality; contact social security agencies to obtain lists of member units, staffing, and salaries.
- Document and publish the methodology adopted for compiling the accounts with the accounts.
- Specific technical recommendations (selected):
  - Recalculate GGF CFC where calculation errors exist for 2014–2017; revise GGF production and value added and therefore GDP.
  - Use consistent (balanced) samples over two years when extrapolating branch production from DSFs; recalculate growth rates and productions.
  - Review volume/price relationships in postal and telecom branches.
  - For financial activities: select price and volume indices aligned with banks and insurance indicators (e.g., change in average monthly rate for banks; increase in number of insurance contracts for insurance) and adjust FISIM accordingly.
  - Recalculate trade branch volume index using increase in volume of the parcel of production and goods imports (excluding services).
  - Revise territorial correction index (example: use change in exchange rates as price index and deduce volume index).
  - Revise base-year (2005) technical coefficients used in projection; correct intermediate consumption matrix anomalies (e.g., excessive consumption allocations across branches such as petroleum extraction consuming telecom products).
  - Indicate fuel subsidy in the accounts (even if treated as a government transfer) to balance chemical products.

### Recommended next steps and operational guidance
- Implement prescribed corrections and incorporate mission’s recalculations into national accounts for publication.
- Use DSFs available for banks, insurance companies, construction firms, and other sectors to replace blanket projection indices (3 percent population growth) with institution- and sector-specific indices.
- Break down CPW into recommended sub-sectors and use balanced samples to derive growth rates.
- Include the public postal service in definitive accounts.
- Recalculate supply-use balances after correcting intermediate consumption matrix and revised branch productions; use corrected matrices to produce consistent supply-use tables and SUTs for 2015–2017.

*Source: IMF technical assistance mission report — “Summary of Mission Outcomes and Priority Recommendations” (Republic of Congo, mission December 5–14, 2018).*

### 1. Priority Recommendations __________________________________________________________________ 6

### 1. Priority Recommendations

### Summary of mission outcomes and priority recommendations
- Mission: IMF AFRITAC Central technical assistance in national accounting, Brazzaville, December 5–14, 2018.
- Focus: analysis of the 2016 and 2017 annual national accounts finalized in accordance with the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA).
- Key actions completed:
  - 2016 accounts completed and finalized, including summary tables – supply and use tables (SUT), branch accounts, and integrated economic accounts table (IEAT).
  - 2017 accounts being finalized.
  - Revision of consumption of fixed capital (CFC) and calculation of general government sector (GGS) production and value added for 2015–2017.
  - Corrections to extrapolations for branches using businesses’ combined statistical and tax returns (DSF) through balanced sampling.
  - Review and corrections of intermediate consumption matrices and technical coefficients (base year 2005).
  - One-day SNA training session for national accounting staff.
- Constraints noted:
  - National accounting staff largely hired in the last five years and had been without work for two years due to lack of office space and equipment.
  - Mission was unable to obtain business directory and VAT files from the Ministry of Finance; meeting with Director General of Taxes was not secured.
- Recommended immediate actions (summary Table 1):
  - March 2019: Adjust products modified by the mission's corrections and branch accounts; incorporate corrections in accounts at constant prices. (Agency: INS)
  - June 2019: Document the methodology applied in compiling the accounts. (Agency: INS)
  - June 2019: Make arrangements with the Ministry of Finance to obtain the corporate file annually and the VAT file quarterly. (Agency: INS)

### Analysis of the 2016 and 2017 national accounts — main findings
- General
  - Supply and use balances by product calculated for both years for 20 products, at current prices and constant prices.
  - Branch production and operations accounts finalized through gross operating surplus for both 2016 and 2017; IEAT finalized for 2016 and being compiled for 2017.
- Use of base year and coefficients
  - Accounts for 2016 and 2017 are based on coefficients from the intermediate uses table (IUT) and ratios from base year 2005; growth rates applied to the 2005 accounts through 2017.
  - Technical coefficients used for projection of intermediate consumption by product are those from base year 2005; for some branches the resulting product consumption figures are unrealistic (examples cited: fresh fish consumed by the trade branch, crude oil consumed by the food industries branch).
- Agricultural branches
  - Conversion of current prices to constant prices for agricultural branches based on population growth rate as the volume index and household final consumption price index as the price index.
  - For agricultural branches other than forestry, national accounting officers used the population growth rate (three percent) as an alternative indicator of volume growth, and indices of household consumption prices relating to agricultural products as the price index.
  - Primary sector accounts (excluding forestry) projected each year from base year 2005 by applying an annual volume growth rate equal to the population growth rates (three percent) and an index of household consumption prices for agricultural products.
- Branches using DSF data
  - Extrapolation method: growth in sales of businesses filing DSFs used to estimate production for year n+1 from year n; however, samples between successive years differed, producing biased growth rates.
  - Mission corrected growth rates by taking comparable/balanced samples between successive years and adding production of newly created businesses when applicable (no new businesses were created during the period in question).
  - Example correction: for “other manufacturing industries” sector, growth rate in value for 2015 is 5.9 percent rather than 66.2 percent. Using the same price index, the volume index would be 2.7 percent rather than 61.2 percent. Productions for 2016 and 2017 should be recalculated based on corrected 2015 production (growth rates for subsequent years were correct).
- Hydrocarbons and forestry
  - Hydrocarbon extraction and petroleum refinery accounts estimated indirectly: exports data used for crude petroleum; refinery DSF used to determine portion sold to the local refinery; production converted annually to constant prices using known hydrocarbon and refined product prices.
  - Forest products branch accounts estimated based on data from the Congolese forest product export company (Société d’exportation des produits forestiers du Congo, SEPFC); local consumption estimated from Ministry of Forest Economy data.
- Quarrying
  - Quarrying is entirely informal; estimates based on correlation with construction and public works (CPW) sector; mission recommended using the 2005 household consumption survey to capture informal sector.

### Capacity strengthening and methodological issues
- Training and tools:
  - One-day SNA course covering transactions in goods and services and revenue distribution operations; conversion between economic aggregates explained (GDP, gross national product, gross disposable income, gross saving, net lending/net borrowing).
  - Cross-reference table prepared to convert business accounting (DSF balance sheets and income statements) to SNA operations; methods presented to calculate dividends and gross fixed capital formation from corporate balance sheets.
  - 2016 and 2017 accounts compiled in Excel pending validation; planned incorporation into automated system ERETES after validation.
- Recommended documentation:
  - Write up and publish the methodology adopted for compiling the accounts to facilitate staff turnover and user understanding.

### Detailed technical evaluation and prioritized action plan (selected items)
- A. Finalize the 2016 and 2017 national accounts
  - High priority: Re-balance products impacted by corrections and branch accounts; input corrections to accounts at constant prices. Target Completion Date: March 2019.
  - Medium priority: Calculate different economic aggregates as presented by the mission after finalization of the IEAT for 2016 and 2017. Target Completion Date: March 2019.
  - Low priority: Recalculate technical coefficients in input-output tables adapted to intermediate consumptions corrected by the mission, to be applied to definitive 2016 and 2017 accounts. Target Completion Date: June 2019.
  - High priority: Write up the methodology applied in compiling the accounts. Target Completion Date: June 2019.
  - Medium priority: Publish the methodological notes. Target Completion Date: June 2019.
- B. Improve production of the national accounts
  - High priority: Follow up with Ministry of Finance (tax directorate) to obtain master file of businesses and annual updates and establish a business directory at INS for sampling and extrapolation. Target Completion Date: March 2019.
  - Medium priority: Obtain quarterly VAT collected file with corresponding revenue for future compilation of quarterly accounts. Target Completion Date: December 2019.
  - Low priority: Establish contact with social security entities to obtain affiliated units, staff employed, and salaries distributed to improve business directory and provide statistics on unemployment and salaries. Target Completion Date: December 2019.
- Recommended corrective actions (mission recommendations)
  - Correct the 2016 and 2017 accounts prior to publication, incorporating the comments and correction methods initiated by the mission.
  - Establish contact with the Ministry of Finance to obtain listings of businesses and sales by business, subject to confidentiality mechanisms.
  - Write up the methodology adopted for compilation of the accounts and publish it with the accounts.

*Source: IMF technical assistance mission report — “Summary of Mission Outcomes and Priority Recommendations” (Republic of Congo, mission December 5–14, 2018).*

### 23. The accounts for the electricity and water branches are based on the DSFs. The

### 1cogea2020003 - 23. The accounts for the electricity and water branches are based on the DSFs. The

### Revisions to branch production estimates (findings and mission corrections)
- Electricity and water branches: accounts based on DSFs of the national electricity corporation (SNE) and the national water distribution corporation (SNDE). Mission noted electricity production increased by 1 percent in 2016 relative to 2015 while total production of the productive sectors fell by 13 percent and household consumption declined by 4.5 percent; mission recommends accountants review the SNE’s DSF and recalculate production.
- Other Manufacturing Industries (Table 2 corrections at current prices):
  - 2015: Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate 66.2%; Production value 369,975. Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate 5.9%; Production value 235,730. Impact on national production — -1.1%. Impact on GDP — -1.0%.
  - 2016: Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate -14.5%; Production value 316,467. Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate -14.5%; Production value 201,660. Impact on national production — -1.0%. Impact on GDP — -1.0%.
  - 2017: Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate -9.0%; Production value 288,107. Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate -9.0%; Production value 183,591. Impact on national production — -0.9%. Impact on GDP — -0.9%.

### Construction sector (CPW) — estimation issues and corrections
- Finding: CPW sector estimated as a whole using DSFs by applying sales growth rates between successive years to 2005 production; samples differ across years causing incorrect growth rates.
- Mission recommendation: divide sector into (i) residential construction, (ii) nonresidential construction, and (iii) civil engineering; use balanced sampling (consistent samples) to recalculate growth rates and sector production at current prices.
- Construction (Table 3 corrections at current prices):
  - 2015: Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate +11%; Amounts at current prices 2,713,472. Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate -29%; Amounts at current prices 1,732,720. Impact on national production — 9%. Impact on GDP — 8%.
  - 2016: Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate -39%; Amounts at current prices 1,574,847. Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate -53%; Amounts at current prices 740,178. Impact on national production — 8%. Impact on GDP — 6.5%.
  - 2017: Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate -23%; Amounts at current prices 1,210,894. Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate -24%; Amounts at current prices 562,535. Impact on national production — 6.5%. Impact on GDP — 5.3%.

### Trade, Transport, Hotel & Restaurant, and Other Market Services
- Trade sector: production estimated from DSFs and adjusted by sum of commercial margins on goods; margins have been constant since 2005 accounts. Mission recommends recalculating margins for each year based on available DSFs.
- Transport sector: production estimated from DSFs and adjusted by commercial margins on transport of goods; activity estimated as a whole without breakdown by mode of transport; mission notes lack of disaggregation.
- Hotel, bar, and restaurant branch:
  - Finding: growth rates computed from DSFs use inconsistent samples across years leading to sampling differences in growth rates.
  - Mission action: recalculated growth rates using fixed samples and recalculated branch production.
  - Table 4 corrections at current prices:
    - 2015: Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate 9%; Amounts at current prices 369,451. Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate -18%; Amounts at current prices 277,967. Impact on national production — 0.8%. Impact on GDP — 1.8%.
    - 2016: Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate 3%; Amounts at current prices 380,285. Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate -11%; Amounts at current prices 247,391. Impact on national production — 1.3%. Impact on GDP — 2.0%.
    - 2017: Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate -5%; Amounts at current prices 361,271. Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate -13%; Amounts at current prices 215,230. Impact on national production — 1.3%. Impact on GDP — 1.9%.
- Other market services (Table 5 corrections at current prices):
  - 2016: Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate 60%; Amounts at current prices 880,305. Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate 49%; Amounts at current prices 819,973. Impact on national production — 0.6 %. Impact on GDP — 6.6 %.
  - 2017: Amounts in the current accounts — Growth rate 12%; Amounts at current prices 984,758. Amounts corrected by the mission — Growth rate 12%; Amounts at current prices 918,369. Impact on national production — 0.6 %. Impact on GDP — 6.9 %.

### Rental, financial services, and telecommunications findings
- Rental of dwellings: estimated using 2005 household consumption survey and 2007 population census; volume growth uses population growth of 3 percent annually; household consumption prices index for rental used to estimate current prices. Population survey provides stock of housing and distribution owners/renters used to estimate actual and imputed rent.
- Financial services (banks, insurance, auxiliary): currently estimated by projection using a 3 percent volume index (population growth) and a 3 percent price index. DSFs available for all banks and insurance companies; mission recommends using these DSFs to estimate production and intermediate consumption. Mission presented methodology for calculating FISIM based on receivables and debts to allow breakdown by institutional sector, aiding transition to SNA 2008.
- Telecommunications and postal services: Directorate General of the Economy centrally manages data from four telecommunications operators; production and value added calculated from DSFs. Postal services provided by two private companies; public postal service currently not included — mission recommends including it in definitive accounts.

### General Government Sector (GGS) CFC and production corrections
- GGS scope: central government, local authorities, social security agencies, administrative public entities other than healthcare and education. Intermediate consumption and salary payments for central government based on general government budget; social security amounts taken from agencies’ documents.
- CFC: originally calculated using a model based on 20 years of GGS gross fixed capital formation. Mission recalculated CFC and its repercussions on public administration (GGF) production, value added, and final consumption.
- Table 6 correction of GGS CFC and production:
  - CFC in the current accounts:
    - 2015: 334,783
    - 2016: 331,979
    - 2017: 328,183
  - CFC corrected by the mission:
    - 2015: 135,000
    - 2016: 235,000
    - 2017: 218,000
  - Correction of production:
    - 2015: - 199 783
    - 2016: - 96 979
    - 2017: - 110 183
  - Correction of value added:
    - 2015: - 199 783
    - 2016: - 96 979
    - 2017: - 110 183
  - Impact on GDP:
    - 2015: -2.6%
    - 2016: -1.4%
    - 2017: -1.5%
- Finding: total GGF production currently broken down into market and nonmarket production using same proportions as in 2005; mission presented method to break down production and recommended using TOFE (government fiscal reporting table) to recalculate productions. Conversion to constant prices currently uses general household consumption price index; mission recommends using civil service salary increases as a price index or increase in total civil service employees as the volume index for future accounts.

### Supply-Use Tables (SUT), intermediate consumption matrix, and base-year projection
- SUTs for 2015–2017 prepared by projecting technical coefficients of the IUT for base year 2005 applied to branches’ current-year productions. Branch accounts used to project productions and intermediate consumptions according to 2005 input-output coefficients to produce production and intermediate consumption matrices by product for 20 products in each of 20 branches; intended results will be used to produce supply-use balances by product.
- Mission analyzed and corrected inconsistencies in the intermediate consumption matrix for 2015 and recommended proportional corrections for 2016 and 2017.
- Table 7 corrections of Intermediate Consumption (selected items and impacts):
  - Selected recommended re-allocations shown in the matrix (examples):
    - Fishing products: 2,132 shifted (-2132)
    - Crude oil: -4,856 and 4,856 reallocations resulting in net 0
    - Chemical products: -10,000, -30,000 and 40,000 reallocations net 0
    - Electricity: -5,000 and 5,000 net 0
    - Construction: -5,000, -10,000, 15,000 net 0
    - Telecom: -30,000, -20,000, 50,000 net 0
    - Other market services: -300,000, 30,000, 50,000, 20,000, 100,000, 100,000 net 0
  - Total row (selected): -335000 2276 5000 4856 50000 20000 -35000 -2132 40000 50000 100000 100000 0
  - Value added in the current accounts (by branch, selected):
    - Hydrocarbon extraction 1,788683
    - Food industries 314433
    - Woodworking, fabric, wood or basketry items 15950
    - Chemical industries 20700
    - Other manufacturing industries 184780
    - Production and distribution of electricity and water 62696
    - Construction 1,593595
    - Trade 698358
    - Transportation 435258
    - Telecom 153429
    - Other market services 408690
    - General government sector 507230
    - Total 6,183802
  - Value added corrected by the mission (by branch, selected):
    - Hydrocarbon extraction 2,123683
    - Food industries 312157
    - Woodworking, fabric, wood or basketry items 10950
    - Chemical industries 15844
    - Other manufacturing industries 134780
    - Production and distribution of electricity and water 42696
    - Construction 1,628595
    - Trade 700490
    - Transportation 395258
    - Telecom 103429
    - Other market services 308690
    - General government sector 407230
    - Total 6,183802

### Identified inconsistencies and proposed methodological corrections (mission recommendations)
- Correct accounts for 2015, 2016, and 2017 prior to publication in March 2019, incorporating mission comments and correction methods.
- After correction, enter accounts into the ERETES system before preparing final third quarter 2019 accounts.
- Establish contact with the Ministry of Finance in 2019 to obtain lists of businesses and sales by business under confidentiality; contact social security agencies to obtain lists of member units, staffing, and salaries.
- Document and publish the methodology adopted for compiling the accounts with the accounts.
- Specific technical recommendations from Annex (selected):
  - Recalculate GGF CFC where calculation errors exist for 2014–2017; revise GGF production and value added and therefore GDP.
  - Use consistent (balanced) samples over two years when extrapolating branch production from DSFs; recalculate growth rates and productions.
  - Review volume/price relationships in postal and telecom branches.
  - For financial activities: select price and volume indices aligned with banks and insurance indicators (e.g., change in average monthly rate for banks; increase in number of insurance contracts for insurance) and adjust FISIM accordingly.
  - Recalculate trade branch volume index using increase in volume of the parcel of production and goods imports (excluding services).
  - Revise territorial correction index (example: use change in exchange rates as price index and deduce volume index).
  - Revise base-year (2005) technical coefficients used in projection; correct intermediate consumption matrix anomalies (e.g., excessive consumption allocations across branches such as petroleum extraction consuming telecom products).
  - Indicate fuel subsidy in the accounts (even if treated as a government transfer) to balance chemical products.

### Recommended next steps and operational guidance
- Implement prescribed corrections and incorporate mission’s recalculations into national accounts for publication.
- Use DSFs available for banks, insurance companies, construction firms, and other sectors to replace blanket projection indices (3 percent population growth) with institution- and sector-specific indices.
- Break down CPW into recommended sub-sectors and use balanced samples to derive growth rates.
- Include the public postal service in definitive accounts.
- Recalculate supply-use balances after correcting intermediate consumption matrix and revised branch productions; use corrected matrices to produce consistent supply-use tables and SUTs for 2015–2017.

*Italic: Source — Chapter content from the mission report on the Republic of Congo national accounts (excerpts provided in the supplied content).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2020/english/1cogea2020003.pdf_