## 1. Priority Recommendations

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**Canonical URL:** [1. Priority Recommendations](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2020/english/1ginea2020004.pdf)

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---

### Summary of mission outcomes
- Mission timing and host:
  - The fourth and last technical assistance (TA) mission for Guinea under the project on improving external sector statistics (ESS) in 17 Francophone countries of West and Central Africa took place in Conakry during August 26–30, 2019.
  - Host and lead institution: Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea (BCRG), Balance of Payments Unit (SBP) of the Statistics and Balance of Payments Directorate (DSBP).
- Main objectives:
  - Support participation in the Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS).
  - Detailed technical work to improve the current and financial accounts.
  - Implement recommendations from previous missions.
- Collaboration and outputs:
  - Key collaborating institutions: National Debt Directorate (DND), National Institute of Statistics (INS), Ministry of Mines and Geology, Guinean Chamber of Mines (CMG), External Debt Division of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), APIP, EITI-Guinea.
  - Mission output: Excel templates for CDIS data entry (equity and debt instruments) were developed and provided to the BCRG; a one-year action plan with priority recommendations was recommended.

### Implementation of previous recommendations (status and findings)
- Overall status:
  - The 20 recommendations from the July 9–20, 2018 mission were essentially implemented by the time of this mission.
- Implemented actions:
  - Corrected formula for net errors and omissions (NEO) and functional categories of the financial account based on BPM6; revised statistics sent to the IMF Statistics Department in June 2019. Result: greater consistency between financial account and current and capital accounts and a significant reduction in net errors and omissions.
  - Decision to launch a special direct investment survey each year rather than attaching CDIS template to the balance of payments questionnaire; mission provided two templates (equity and debt) and trained SBP officials.
  - Regular meetings of the Technical Committee for the Harmonization of Balance of Payments (CTHBP) led to harmonized methodology for foreign trade statistics between INS and BCRG; DSBP valuation approach for bauxite exports selected.
  - Balance of payments software under internal development since 2016 expected to become operational in late 2019.
  - 2018 surveys (with AfDB support) on informal trade and migrant transfers produced provisional results pending validation.
- Partially or not implemented / outstanding issues:
  - QEDS participation: DND to acquire DMFAS software from UNCTAD with AFD support; External Debt Division has CBDMS problems; SBP to provide private sector and deposit-taking corporations debt stats to External Debt Division.
  - Use of DOTS mirror data limited by SBP’s poor internet connection.
  - Corrections to SDR allocation transactions in the balance of payments were not made due to need for clarification; mission provided explanations and recommended SBP incorporate proposed corrections.
  - Use of source data from public entities: partially implemented (CNSS and SEG provided some data; EDG electricity data for diplomatic missions requested).
  - Completeness and accuracy of mining companies’ external operations and primary income data remain unresolved; Ministry of Mines reporting lacks required disaggregation.
  - Planned working session with APIP did not take place due to management changes; DSBP and APIP agreed to exchange data and establish annual consultations.
  - Publication of a detailed annual ESS report was not implemented; DSBP included it in the 2020 work program.

### Key statistics and precise figures
- Mission dates: August 26–30, 2019.
- CDIS processing target: CDIS for the year 2018; DSBP plans to collect CDIS 2018 data during the last quarter of 2019 through an annual survey of businesses.
- Provisional survey results on migrant transfers (2017):
  - Transfers received USD 108 million; outgoing transfers USD 17 million.
- Revised statistics sent to IMF Statistics Department: June 2019.
- Balance of payments software operational target: late 2019.

### Improvement of data sources (findings and recommended actions)
- Identified additional source data:
  - Detailed statistics on transfers carried out by the BCRG on behalf of the government (external debt service, purchases of equipment and energy, salaries and operating expenditures of embassies, scholarships, etc.); Director of Foreign Exchange indicated detailed data are available and invited DSBP to submit a form for collection.
  - Data on general government services abroad from the Treasury Central Accountant (ACCT): BCRG agreed to provide an outline for quarterly collection.
  - Regulatory channel: Chapter 12 of the Foreign Exchange Regulations requires borrowers to submit loan contracts to a local bank and for banks to provide copies to BCRG for registration; these provisions are not respected currently, but a review of the regulations is under way.
  - Use of EITI-Guinea reports: EITI-Guinea 2017 report (published May 2019) provides mining company-level information (quantities produced and exported, countries of destination, corporate profile, capital structure and beneficial ownership); recommended for use to improve mining sector data.
- Explicit recommended actions:
  - Request quarterly statistics on transfers from the BCRG Foreign Exchange Directorate using a special template.
  - Prepare a template for quarterly collection of general government services transactions and send it to the ACCT.
  - Use EITI-Guinea reports in the production of the ESS.

### Detailed technical assessment and priority recommendations (targets and deadlines)
- Priority recommendations and target completion dates:
  - Finalize the processing of the results of the CDIS for the year 2018. — Target Completion Date: June 2020. — Responsible: BCRG (DSBP).
  - Validate the results of the surveys on migrants’ remittances and informal trade, incorporate them in the balance of payments statistics, then submit the revised data to the IMF. — Target Completion Date: December 2020. — Responsible: BCRG (DSBP).
  - Speed up the implementation of the balance of payments computer application. — Target Completion Date: September 2020. — Responsible: BCRG (DSBP).
- Additional priority and medium-priority items (Priority Scale H – High, M – Medium):
  - H Ensure data consistency between the monetary statistics and the ESS. — Target Completion Date: September 2020.
  - H Complete the processing of the results of the CDIS for 2018. — Target Completion Date: June 2020.
  - M Improve the dissemination of the external accounts by means of a detailed annual report on the balance of payments and IIP to analyze their trends. — Target Completion Date: December 2020.
  - M Produce and provide DND with the external debt statistics for the private sector and deposit-taking corporations. — Target Completion Date: December 2020.
  - M Continue awareness-raising activities with mining companies in partnership with the Ministry of Mines and Geology and the Guinean Chamber of Mines. — Target Completion Date: Continuous.
  - M Establish a framework for annual consultations with APIP. — Target Completion Date: December 2020.
  - M Request statistics on transfers from the BCRG Foreign Exchange Directorate using a special template on a quarterly basis. — Target Completion Date: December 2020.
  - M Prepare a form for the collection of quarterly data on general government services transactions and send it to the ACCT. — Target Completion Date: December 2020.
  - M Use the EITI-Guinea reports in the production of the ESS. — Target Completion Date: On a regular basis.

### Recommended operational next steps
- Validate and incorporate the results of the migrant transfers and informal trade surveys into the balance of payments and submit revised data to IMF.
- Produce and provide DND with statistics on external debt of the private sector and deposit-taking corporations (to support QEDS participation).
- Speed up implementation and deployment of the balance of payments software application.
- Establish a formal framework for annual consultations and data exchange with APIP.
- Improve ESS dissemination through a detailed annual report on the balance of payments and the international investment position (IIP).
- Use BCRG transfer records and EITI-Guinea reports as regular data sources; implement quarterly templates for transfers and general government services.

### Consistency between the IIP and monetary statistics (1SR)
- Findings:
  - The mission analyzed consistency between the IIP and the Central Bank’s monetary statistics (Standardized Report Form 1SR) and identified significant inconsistencies that the SBP should correct (Annex I).
  - Inconsistencies relate to sub-items on reserve assets, SDR allocations, and IMF credit and loans.
- Recommendation:
  - The SBP should use Form 1SR as a data source for the relevant items in the IIP to avoid such discrepancies.
- Suggested next steps for the next mission:
  - Review consistency between statistics in the other depository corporations survey and the IIP, and the estimate of insurance services.
- Recommended Actions:
  - Ensure data consistency between the monetary statistics and the ESS.
  - Continue awareness-raising activities with the mining companies in partnership with the Ministry of Mines and Geology and the Guinean Chamber of Mines.

### External accounts data comprehensiveness and mining sector data provision
- Core findings:
  - The problem of comprehensiveness and accuracy of external accounts data raised during the previous mission persists.
  - Mining companies are the source of 85 percent of Guinean exports on average.
  - Approximately 60 percent of these companies respond to the balance of payments questionnaire, but the quality of the data provided, particularly the financial data, do not reflect the economic reality.
- Solution elements:
  - Active participation of mining companies in collection of external sector data.
  - Close involvement of the Ministry of Mines and better cooperation from the Guinean Chamber of Mines to ensure mining companies provide timely and accurate data on operations with nonresidents.
  - The IMF African Department Guinea desk could emphasize this issue with the authorities.

### Growth of the Guinean mining sector and implications for balance of payments
- Bauxite production:
  - Bauxite production tripled in three years: from 20.7 million metric tons in 2015 to 55.3 million in 2018.
  - Guinea became the third-largest global producer after Australia and China (Commodity Markets Outlook, World Bank, April 2019).
- New and expanded operations:
  - Exploitation of Boké Mining Company in 2016 and Alufer Mining in 2018.
  - Exploitation of the Santou and Houda deposits expected in 2022.
- Expected macroeconomic/BoP effects (not fully reflected in statistics):
  - High level of imports since 2016 should be reflected in significant inflow of financial assets, primarily direct investments (equity and debt instruments) or loans.
  - Significant export income should enable repayment of liabilities for mine construction, settlement of related interest, payment of dividends, and an increase in liquid assets of mining companies abroad or the reserve assets of the BCRG.
- Current statistical gap:
  - These effects are shown only incompletely in the financial accounts and the primary income account of the balance of payments (Annex II).

### Engagement with mining companies and data collection steps
- Meetings and assurances:
  - The mission and a DSBP team met with the Guinean Chamber of Mines and mining company officials, with the Deputy Director of the Mining Sector Investment and Cooperation Unit of the Ministry of Mines and Geology present.
  - The mission and the BCRG emphasized advantages of exhaustive, consistent, high-quality macroeconomic statistics and reminded mining companies of mandatory confidentiality rules the BCRG must follow.
  - Mining companies expressed need for data protection in a competitive environment and preferred BCRG coordinate data collection in cooperation with the Development and Strategy Office of the Ministry of Mines and Geology.
  - BCRG informed mining companies that a training and awareness session would be provided in the context of the annual survey on direct investment scheduled for the last quarter of 2019.

### Participation in the CDIS and QEDS
- CDIS templates and plans:
  - The mission developed two data entry and compilation templates for the CDIS in Excel (for own funds and debt instruments) in line with the CDIS questionnaire prepared by the DSBP and provided them to the BCRG.
    - These templates allow data entry on own funds and debt instruments and production of tables on distribution by industry and by country of direct investment in line with the IMF CDIS form.
    - The templates have been tested satisfactorily by the SBP and will be used for compilation of CDIS data.
  - DSBP plans:
    - Conduct a survey on direct investment in November 2019 to collect data for 2018. The 2019 data should be collected in the third quarter of 2020.
    - The CDIS mirror statistics will be used to make improvements.
    - Direct investment statistics to be compiled will be used to improve the IIP and the balance of payments financial account.
    - Past direct investment data collection by the BCRG, using a form attached to the balance of payments questionnaire, did not achieve an acceptable response rate or level of quality.
    - Lack of compilation software hampered efficient use of these data.
- QEDS participation:
  - The mission held discussions with the Chief of the External Debt Division of the DND.
  - The DND informed the mission that the AFD has indicated it will assist Guinea with purchase of the DMFAS software from UNCTAD.
  - An UNCTAD assessment mission is expected in Conakry in September 2019.
- Recommended Action:
  - Conduct the Coordinated Direct Investment Survey for 2018.

### Annex I — Consistency Between the IIP and 1SR (USD million)
- 1SR IMF reserve position: 0.115 (2012), 0.116 (2013), 0.109 (2014), 0.104 (2015), 36.095 (2016), 38.238 (2017), 37.343 (2018)
- IIP Reserve assets/IMF reserve position: -12.960 (2012), -38.960 (2013), -51.960 (2014), 6.345 (2015), 4.845 (2016), 4.845 (2017), 374.412 (2018)
- 1SR Holdings of Special Drawing Rights: 120.603 (2012), 149.099 (2013), 232.273 (2014), 201.591 (2015), 184.279 (2016), 220.071 (2017), 239.798 (2018)
- IIP Reserve assets/Special Drawing Rights: 32.040 (2012), 62.480 (2013), 118.324 (2014), 206.571 (2015), 186.462 (2016), 206.192 (2017), 206.192 (2018)
- 1SR IMF credit: 57.211 (2012), 85.600 (2013), 172.524 (2014), 197.875 (2015), 241.327 (2016), 280.162 (2017), 321.482 (2018)
- IIP IMF credit and loans: 0.000 (2012), 0.000 (2013), 18.829 (2014), 157.139 (2015), 152.739 (2016), 178.999 (2017), 224.532 (2018)
- 1SR SDR allocations: 157.482 (2012), 157.797 (2013), 148.453 (2014), 141.990 (2015), 137.748 (2016), 145.925 (2017), 142.508 (2018)
- IIP Special Drawing Rights (net accumulation of liabilities): 0.000 (2012), 0.000 (2013), 10.345 (2014), 145.498 (2015), 162.108 (2016), 166.978 (2017), 165.154 (2018)
- 1SR Monetary gold: 11.821 (2012), 8.536 (2013), 8.520 (2014), 81.711 (2015), 8.235 (2016), 9.212 (2017), 63.103 (2018)
- IIP Reserve assets/Monetary gold: 8.370 (2012), 4.450 (2013), 4.718 (2014), 83.661 (2015), 17.010 (2016), 19.840 (2017), 70.932 (2018)

### Annex II — Consistency Between the Current Account and Financial Account (USD million)
- Current Account — Goods: -410.6 (2015), -2,015.1 (2016), 1,110.0 (2017), 592.4 (2018)
  - Goods Credit: 1,781.1 (2015), 2,414.4 (2016), 4,594.1 (2017), 3,978.1 (2018)
  - Goods Debit: 2,191.8 (2015), 4,429.4 (2016), 3,484.1 (2017), 3,385.6 (2018)
- Current Account — Services: -425.0 (2015), -655.9 (2016), -703.5 (2017), -697.0 (2018)
  - Services Credit: 78.3 (2015), 57.0 (2016), 52.4 (2017), 104.0 (2018)
  - Services Debit: 503.3 (2015), 712.8 (2016), 755.9 (2017), 801.0 (2018)
- Current Account — Primary income: -143.2 (2015), -154.8 (2016), -50.6 (2017), -181.8 (2018)
  - Investment income: -121.2 (2015), -142.1 (2016), -65.7 (2017), -186.4 (2018)
    - Investment income Credit: 8.0 (2015), 12.4 (2016), 4.8 (2017), 41.3 (2018)
    - Investment income Debit: 129.3 (2015), 154.6 (2016), 70.5 (2017), 227.7 (2018)
- Financial Account — Direct Investment: -48.2 (2015), -1,597.3 (2016), -576.5 (2017), -353.1 (2018)
  - Net acquisition of financial assets: 5.0 (2015), 2.0 (2016), 1.1 (2017), -0.3 (2018)
    - Equity securities other than reinvestment of earnings: 0.8 (2015), -0.8 (2016), -0.0 (2017), 0.3 (2018)
    - Debt instruments: 4.5 (2015), 2.8 (2016), 1.1 (2017), -0.7 (2018)
  - Net increase in liabilities: 53.2 (2015), 1,599.3 (2016), 577.6 (2017), 352.7 (2018)
    - Equity securities other than reinvestment of earnings: 9.3 (2015), 23.1 (2016), 40.2 (2017), -27.9 (2018)
    - Debt instruments: 43.9 (2015), 1,615.3 (2016), 537.4 (2017), 380.6 (2018)
- Financial Account — Currency and deposits: -462.0 (2015), 509.8 (2016), 1,421.9 (2017), 383.6 (2018)
  - Net acquisition of financial assets: -479.0 (2015), 521.5 (2016), 1,380.9 (2017), 427.6 (2018)
    - Other sectors: -198.0 (2015), 230.4 (2016), 1,204.8 (2017), 329.2 (2018)
  - Net increase in liabilities: -16.9 (2015), 11.7 (2016), -41.0 (2017), 44.0 (2018)
- Financial Account — Loans: -281.3 (2015), -193.9 (2016), -125.5 (2017), -320.6 (2018)
  - Net acquisition of financial assets: -12.9 (2015), 0.0 (2016), 0.0 (2017), 0.0 (2018)
  - Net increase in liabilities: 268.4 (2015), 193.9 (2016), 125.5 (2017), 320.6 (2018)
    - Other sectors: -0.4 (2015), 0.0 (2016), 0.0 (2017), 8.2 (2018)
      - Nonfinancial corporations, households and NPISH: -0.4 (2015), 0.0 (2016), 0.0 (2017), 8.2 (2018)

*Source: 1ginea2020004 - 1. Priority Recommendations; Source: BCRG*

### 1. Priority Recommendations _____________________________________________________________________ 5

### 1. Priority Recommendations

### Summary of mission outcomes
- The fourth and last technical assistance (TA) mission for Guinea under the project on improving external sector statistics (ESS) in 17 Francophone countries of West and Central Africa took place in Conakry during August 26–30, 2019.
- Host and lead institution: Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea (BCRG), specifically the Balance of Payments Unit (SBP) of the Statistics and Balance of Payments Directorate (DSBP).
- Main objectives:
  - Support participation in the Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS).
  - Detailed technical work to improve the current and financial accounts.
  - Implement recommendations from previous missions.
- Key collaborating institutions: National Debt Directorate (DND), National Institute of Statistics (INS), Ministry of Mines and Geology, Guinean Chamber of Mines (CMG), External Debt Division of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), APIP, EITI-Guinea.
- Mission output: Excel templates for CDIS data entry (equity and debt instruments) were developed and provided to the BCRG; a one-year action plan with priority recommendations was recommended (see Table 1).

### Implementation of previous recommendations (status and findings)
- Overall status: The 20 recommendations from the July 9–20, 2018 mission were essentially implemented by the time of this mission.
- Specific implemented actions:
  - Corrected formula for net errors and omissions (NEO) and functional categories of the financial account based on BPM6; revised statistics sent to the IMF Statistics Department in June 2019. Result: greater consistency between financial account and current and capital accounts and a significant reduction in net errors and omissions.
  - Decision to launch a special direct investment survey each year rather than attaching CDIS template to the balance of payments questionnaire; mission provided two templates (equity and debt) and trained SBP officials.
  - Regular meetings of the Technical Committee for the Harmonization of Balance of Payments (CTHBP) led to harmonized methodology for foreign trade statistics between INS and BCRG; DSBP valuation approach for bauxite exports selected.
  - Balance of payments software under internal development since 2016 expected to become operational in late 2019.
  - 2018 surveys (with AfDB support) on informal trade and migrant transfers produced provisional results pending validation.
- Partially or not implemented items and outstanding issues:
  - QEDS participation: DND to acquire DMFAS software from UNCTAD with AFD support; External Debt Division has CBDMS problems; SBP to provide private sector and deposit-taking corporations debt stats to External Debt Division.
  - Use of DOTS mirror data limited by SBP’s poor internet connection.
  - Corrections to SDR allocation transactions in the balance of payments were not made due to need for clarification; mission provided explanations and recommended SBP incorporate proposed corrections.
  - Use of source data from public entities: partially implemented (CNSS and SEG provided some data; EDG electricity data for diplomatic missions requested).
  - Completeness and accuracy of mining companies’ external operations and primary income data remain unresolved; Ministry of Mines reporting lacks required disaggregation.
  - The planned working session with APIP did not take place due to management changes; DSBP and APIP agreed to exchange data and establish annual consultations.
  - Publication of a detailed annual ESS report was not implemented; DSBP included it in the 2020 work program.

### Key statistics and precise figures to preserve
- Mission dates: August 26–30, 2019.
- CDIS processing target: CDIS for the year 2018; DSBP plans to collect CDIS 2018 data during the last quarter of 2019 through an annual survey of businesses.
- Provisional survey results on migrant transfers (2017): transfers received USD 108 million; outgoing transfers USD 17 million.
- Revised statistics sent to IMF Statistics Department: June 2019.
- Balance of payments software operational target: late 2019 (implementation to make data more secure and speed up ESS compilation).

### Improvement of data sources (findings and recommended actions)
- Identified additional source data to improve ESS:
  - Detailed statistics on transfers carried out by the BCRG on behalf of the government (external debt service, purchases of equipment and energy, salaries and operating expenditures of embassies, scholarships, etc.); Director of Foreign Exchange indicated detailed data are available and invited DSBP to submit a form for collection.
  - Data on general government services abroad from the Treasury Central Accountant (ACCT): BCRG agreed to provide an outline for quarterly collection.
  - Regulatory channel: Chapter 12 of the Foreign Exchange Regulations requires borrowers to submit loan contracts to a local bank and for banks to provide copies to BCRG for registration; these provisions are not respected currently, but a review of the regulations is under way.
  - Use of EITI-Guinea reports: EITI-Guinea 2017 report (published May 2019) provides mining company-level information (quantities produced and exported, countries of destination, corporate profile, capital structure and beneficial ownership); recommended for use to improve mining sector data.
- Recommended actions (explicit):
  - Request quarterly statistics on transfers from the BCRG Foreign Exchange Directorate using a special template.
  - Prepare a template for quarterly collection of general government services transactions and send it to the ACCT.
  - Use EITI-Guinea reports in the production of the ESS.

### Detailed technical assessment and priority recommendations (targets and deadlines)
- Priority recommendations and target completion dates (as in Table 1 and detailed action plan):
  - Finalize the processing of the results of the CDIS for the year 2018. — Target Completion Date: June 2020. — Responsible: BCRG (DSBP).
  - Validate the results of the surveys on migrants’ remittances and informal trade, incorporate them in the balance of payments statistics, then submit the revised data to the IMF. — Target Completion Date: December 2020. — Responsible: BCRG (DSBP).
  - Speed up the implementation of the balance of payments computer application. — Target Completion Date: September 2020. — Responsible: BCRG (DSBP).
- Additional priority and medium-priority items from the Detailed Technical Assessment table (with Priority Scale H – High, M – Medium):
  - H Ensure data consistency between the monetary statistics and the ESS. — Target Completion Date: September 2020.
  - H Complete the processing of the results of the CDIS for 2018. — Target Completion Date: June 2020.
  - M Improve the dissemination of the external accounts by means of a detailed annual report on the balance of payments and IIP to analyze their trends. — Target Completion Date: December 2020.
  - M Produce and provide DND with the external debt statistics for the private sector and deposit-taking corporations. — Target Completion Date: December 2020.
  - M Continue awareness-raising activities with mining companies in partnership with the Ministry of Mines and Geology and the Guinean Chamber of Mines. — Target Completion Date: Continuous.
  - M Establish a framework for annual consultations with APIP. — Target Completion Date: December 2020.
  - M Request statistics on transfers from the BCRG Foreign Exchange Directorate using a special template on a quarterly basis. — Target Completion Date: December 2020.
  - M Prepare a form for the collection of quarterly data on general government services transactions and send it to the ACCT. — Target Completion Date: December 2020.
  - M Use the EITI-Guinea reports in the production of the ESS. — Target Completion Date: On a regular basis.

### Recommended operational next steps (concise)
- Validate and incorporate the results of the migrant transfers and informal trade surveys into the balance of payments and submit revised data to IMF.
- Produce and provide DND with statistics on external debt of the private sector and deposit-taking corporations (to support QEDS participation).
- Speed up implementation and deployment of the balance of payments software application.
- Establish a formal framework for annual consultations and data exchange with APIP.
- Improve ESS dissemination through a detailed annual report on the balance of payments and the international investment position (IIP).
- Use BCRG transfer records and EITI-Guinea reports as regular data sources; implement quarterly templates for transfers and general government services.

*Source: 1ginea2020004 - 1. Priority Recommendations*

### 27.      The mission analyzed the consistency between the IIP and the Central Bank’s

### 1ginea2020004 - 27.      The mission analyzed the consistency between the IIP and the Central Bank’s

### Consistency between the IIP and monetary statistics (1SR)
- The mission analyzed consistency between the IIP and the Central Bank’s monetary statistics (Standardized Report Form 1SR) and identified significant inconsistencies that the SBP should correct (Annex I).
- Inconsistencies relate to sub-items on reserve assets, SDR allocations, and IMF credit and loans.
- Recommendation: The SBP should use Form 1SR as a data source for the relevant items in the IIP to avoid such discrepancies.
- Suggested next steps for the next mission: review consistency between statistics in the other depository corporations survey and the IIP, and the estimate of insurance services.
- Recommended Actions:
  - Ensure data consistency between the monetary statistics and the ESS;
  - Continue awareness-raising activities with the mining companies in partnership with the Ministry of Mines and Geology and the Guinean Chamber of Mines.

### External accounts data comprehensiveness and mining sector data provision
- The problem of comprehensiveness and accuracy of external accounts data raised during the previous mission persists.
- Mining companies are the source of 85 percent of Guinean exports on average.
- Approximately 60 percent of these companies respond to the balance of payments questionnaire, but the quality of the data provided, particularly the financial data, do not reflect the economic reality.
- Solution elements:
  - Active participation of mining companies in collection of external sector data;
  - Close involvement of the Ministry of Mines and better cooperation from the Guinean Chamber of Mines to ensure mining companies provide timely and accurate data on operations with nonresidents.
  - The IMF African Department Guinea desk could emphasize this issue with the authorities.

### Growth of the Guinean mining sector and implications for balance of payments
- Bauxite production tripled in three years: from 20.7 million metric tons in 2015 to 55.3 million in 2018.
- Guinea became the third-largest global producer after Australia and China (Commodity Markets Outlook, World Bank, April 2019).
- New and expanded operations:
  - Exploitation of Boké Mining Company in 2016 and Alufer Mining in 2018;
  - Exploitation of the Santou and Houda deposits expected in 2022.
- Expected macroeconomic/BoP effects (not fully reflected in statistics):
  - High level of imports since 2016 should be reflected in significant inflow of financial assets, primarily direct investments (equity and debt instruments) or loans.
  - Significant export income should enable repayment of liabilities for mine construction, settlement of related interest, payment of dividends, and an increase in liquid assets of mining companies abroad or the reserve assets of the BCRG.
- Current statistical gap: these effects are shown only incompletely in the financial accounts and the primary income account of the balance of payments (Annex II).

### Engagement with mining companies and data collection steps
- The mission and a DSBP team met with the Guinean Chamber of Mines and mining company officials, with the Deputy Director of the Mining Sector Investment and Cooperation Unit of the Ministry of Mines and Geology present.
- The mission and the BCRG emphasized advantages of exhaustive, consistent, high-quality macroeconomic statistics and reminded mining companies of mandatory confidentiality rules the BCRG must follow.
- Mining companies expressed need for data protection in a competitive environment and preferred BCRG coordinate data collection in cooperation with the Development and Strategy Office of the Ministry of Mines and Geology.
- BCRG informed mining companies that a training and awareness session would be provided in the context of the annual survey on direct investment scheduled for the last quarter of 2019.

### Participation in the CDIS and QEDS
- The mission developed two data entry and compilation templates for the CDIS in Excel (for own funds and debt instruments) in line with the CDIS questionnaire prepared by the DSBP and provided them to the BCRG.
  - These templates allow data entry on own funds and debt instruments and production of tables on distribution by industry and by country of direct investment in line with the IMF CDIS form.
  - The templates have been tested satisfactorily by the SBP and will be used for compilation of CDIS data.
- The DSBP plans to conduct a survey on direct investment in November 2019 to collect data for 2018. The 2019 data should be collected in the third quarter of 2020.
  - The CDIS mirror statistics will be used to make improvements.
  - Direct investment statistics to be compiled will be used to improve the IIP and the balance of payments financial account.
  - Past direct investment data collection by the BCRG, using a form attached to the balance of payments questionnaire, did not achieve an acceptable response rate or level of quality.
  - Lack of compilation software hampered efficient use of these data.
- In the context of Guinea’s participation in the QEDS:
  - The mission held discussions with the Chief of the External Debt Division of the DND.
  - The DND informed the mission that the AFD has indicated it will assist Guinea with purchase of the DMFAS software from UNCTAD.
  - An UNCTAD assessment mission is expected in Conakry in September 2019 in this connection.
- Recommended Action:
  - Conduct the Coordinated Direct Investment Survey for 2018.

### Annex I — Consistency Between the IIP and 1SR (USD million)
- 1SR IMF reserve position: 0.115 (2012), 0.116 (2013), 0.109 (2014), 0.104 (2015), 36.095 (2016), 38.238 (2017), 37.343 (2018)
- IIP Reserve assets/IMF reserve position: -12.960 (2012), -38.960 (2013), -51.960 (2014), 6.345 (2015), 4.845 (2016), 4.845 (2017), 374.412 (2018)
- 1SR Holdings of Special Drawing Rights: 120.603 (2012), 149.099 (2013), 232.273 (2014), 201.591 (2015), 184.279 (2016), 220.071 (2017), 239.798 (2018)
- IIP Reserve assets/Special Drawing Rights: 32.040 (2012), 62.480 (2013), 118.324 (2014), 206.571 (2015), 186.462 (2016), 206.192 (2017), 206.192 (2018)
- 1SR IMF credit: 57.211 (2012), 85.600 (2013), 172.524 (2014), 197.875 (2015), 241.327 (2016), 280.162 (2017), 321.482 (2018)
- IIP IMF credit and loans: 0.000 (2012), 0.000 (2013), 18.829 (2014), 157.139 (2015), 152.739 (2016), 178.999 (2017), 224.532 (2018)
- 1SR SDR allocations: 157.482 (2012), 157.797 (2013), 148.453 (2014), 141.990 (2015), 137.748 (2016), 145.925 (2017), 142.508 (2018)
- IIP Special Drawing Rights (net accumulation of liabilities): 0.000 (2012), 0.000 (2013), 10.345 (2014), 145.498 (2015), 162.108 (2016), 166.978 (2017), 165.154 (2018)
- 1SR Monetary gold: 11.821 (2012), 8.536 (2013), 8.520 (2014), 81.711 (2015), 8.235 (2016), 9.212 (2017), 63.103 (2018)
- IIP Reserve assets/Monetary gold: 8.370 (2012), 4.450 (2013), 4.718 (2014), 83.661 (2015), 17.010 (2016), 19.840 (2017), 70.932 (2018)

### Annex II — Consistency Between the Current Account and Financial Account (USD million)
- Current Account — Goods: -410.6 (2015), -2,015.1 (2016), 1,110.0 (2017), 592.4 (2018)
  - Goods Credit: 1,781.1 (2015), 2,414.4 (2016), 4,594.1 (2017), 3,978.1 (2018)
  - Goods Debit: 2,191.8 (2015), 4,429.4 (2016), 3,484.1 (2017), 3,385.6 (2018)
- Current Account — Services: -425.0 (2015), -655.9 (2016), -703.5 (2017), -697.0 (2018)
  - Services Credit: 78.3 (2015), 57.0 (2016), 52.4 (2017), 104.0 (2018)
  - Services Debit: 503.3 (2015), 712.8 (2016), 755.9 (2017), 801.0 (2018)
- Current Account — Primary income: -143.2 (2015), -154.8 (2016), -50.6 (2017), -181.8 (2018)
  - Investment income: -121.2 (2015), -142.1 (2016), -65.7 (2017), -186.4 (2018)
    - Investment income Credit: 8.0 (2015), 12.4 (2016), 4.8 (2017), 41.3 (2018)
    - Investment income Debit: 129.3 (2015), 154.6 (2016), 70.5 (2017), 227.7 (2018)

- Financial Account — Direct Investment: -48.2 (2015), -1,597.3 (2016), -576.5 (2017), -353.1 (2018)
  - Net acquisition of financial assets: 5.0 (2015), 2.0 (2016), 1.1 (2017), -0.3 (2018)
    - Equity securities other than reinvestment of earnings: 0.8 (2015), -0.8 (2016), -0.0 (2017), 0.3 (2018)
    - Debt instruments: 4.5 (2015), 2.8 (2016), 1.1 (2017), -0.7 (2018)
  - Net increase in liabilities: 53.2 (2015), 1,599.3 (2016), 577.6 (2017), 352.7 (2018)
    - Equity securities other than reinvestment of earnings: 9.3 (2015), 23.1 (2016), 40.2 (2017), -27.9 (2018)
    - Debt instruments: 43.9 (2015), 1,615.3 (2016), 537.4 (2017), 380.6 (2018)

- Financial Account — Currency and deposits: -462.0 (2015), 509.8 (2016), 1,421.9 (2017), 383.6 (2018)
  - Net acquisition of financial assets: -479.0 (2015), 521.5 (2016), 1,380.9 (2017), 427.6 (2018)
    - Other sectors: -198.0 (2015), 230.4 (2016), 1,204.8 (2017), 329.2 (2018)
  - Net increase in liabilities: -16.9 (2015), 11.7 (2016), -41.0 (2017), 44.0 (2018)

- Financial Account — Loans: -281.3 (2015), -193.9 (2016), -125.5 (2017), -320.6 (2018)
  - Net acquisition of financial assets: -12.9 (2015), 0.0 (2016), 0.0 (2017), 0.0 (2018)
  - Net increase in liabilities: 268.4 (2015), 193.9 (2016), 125.5 (2017), 320.6 (2018)
    - Other sectors: -0.4 (2015), 0.0 (2016), 0.0 (2017), 8.2 (2018)
      - Nonfinancial corporations, households and NPISH: -0.4 (2015), 0.0 (2016), 0.0 (2017), 8.2 (2018)

*Source: BCRG*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2020/english/1ginea2020004.pdf_