## 1kgzea2020002

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---

### Context and immediate response
- COVID-19 pandemic weakened the macroeconomic outlook.
- Authorities launched a health care contingency plan and an initial package of economic measures totaling $31 million (0.4 percent of GDP), and are preparing a second package of about $400 million (5.2 percent of GDP).
- To address an urgent balance of payments need estimated at about $500 million, the authorities request:
  - an additional purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) of 33.3 percent of quota (SDR 59.2 million), and
  - a disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) of 16.7 percent of quota (SDR 29.6 million) under the “exogenous shock” window of the RCF.
- This follows Board approval on March 26, 2020 of the authorities’ earlier request for the same amounts, and the doubling of the annual access on emergency financing under the “exogenous shock” window of the RCF to 100 percent of quota approved on April 6, 2020.
- The additional request will bring total purchases under the RFI and disbursements under the RCF to 100 percent of quota in 2020.

### Recent economic developments, outlook, and risks
- As of April 29, there were 729 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the country.
- Real GDP growth slowed to 1.5 percent during Q1 2020, owing to contraction of industry, transport, construction and retail trade.
- Inflation rose to 5.9 percent in March year-on-year (y-o-y) owing to food prices.
- Remittances decreased by 12 percent y-o-y in January-February.
- The exchange rate of the KGS vis-à-vis the US$ strengthened by 6 percent since March 24, reducing the depreciation to 14 percent so far this year.
- The central bank sold foreign exchange amounting to $217 million, or 50 percent more than during the whole of last year.
- Tax revenue declined by 11 percent during Q1 y-o-y owing to a drop of indirect taxes and customs duties.
- Under the assumption that the impact from COVID-19 will last for the first half of 2020:
  - Real GDP is now expected to contract by 4 percent in 2020 (+0.4 percent growth in previous staff report).
  - Average headline inflation is expected to reach 10.6 percent.
  - The budget deficit of the general government is expected to widen to 8.8 percent of GDP (7.8 percent in previous staff report).
  - Public debt is expected to increase to 69 percent of GDP (66 percent in previous staff report).
  - The current account deficit is expected to widen to 13.1 percent of GDP (14.5 percent of GDP in previous staff report) owing to a drop in remittances and tourism receipts.
- An urgent financing gap of about $500 million ($406 million in previous staff report) is expected to open up.
- With the financing gap filled by the Fund and development partners, official reserves could be maintained at about 4.5 months of prospective imports of goods and services and the exchange rate depreciation could be contained to a manageable level.
- The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Kyrgyz economy is subject to a considerable margin of uncertainty and could be worse than estimated.

### Policy discussions and recommendations (authorities' intentions in LOI)
- Temporarily loosen macroeconomic and financial policies to finance health and economic relief and support a recovery.
- Specific measures planned (as explained in LOI of March 24):
  - Allow flexibility of the exchange rate and keep monetary policy data dependent considering significant uncertainties.
  - Urgently seek donor financing to close the remaining balance of payments gap and help ease the adjustment burden.
  - Stand ready to provide liquidity to the financial system, while ensuring transparent information is available on eligible collateral.
  - Provide health and economic relief, accommodate a widening of the fiscal deficit provided enough financing is mobilized, and develop a plan to bring the deficit below 3 percent of GDP once the crisis abates.
  - Use banks’ capital and liquidity buffers to absorb credit losses and the liquidity squeeze and, once these buffers are exhausted, show some flexibility on the timing of bringing capital and liquidity above the minimum required.
- Strengthen procurement rules to enhance transparency and ensure efficient spending on the crisis response:
  - Subject all procurement of urgently needed supplies to an ex-post audit by the Audit Chamber, with results published on the Ministry of Finance website.
  - Publish bidding documents for competitive and single tender procurement, including those of state-owned enterprises and joint stock companies with state shares of more than 50 percent and their subsidiaries, on the Public Procurement portal.
  - Publish ex-post validation of delivery along with the name of awarded companies and their beneficial owner(s) for all public procurement contracts.
  - Ensure the Independent Complaints Review Commission on procurement can collect fees to adequately finance its operations.
- Intend to request debt service suspension from official bilateral creditors in line with the term sheet in the April 15, 2020 Communiqué of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors:
  - Use fiscal space released by debt service suspension to finance COVID-19 related health or economic relief and monitor and report such spending.
  - Disclose the debt of public sector borrowing entities to the IMF and the World Bank within 3 months.
  - Preliminary estimates indicate suspension of debt service to Paris Club and G20 creditors could fill about $54 million of the balance of payments financing gap in 2020.

### Financing, access, and capacity to repay
- Staff estimates that an access level of 33.3 percent of quota (SDR 59.2 million) under the RFI and 16.7 percent of quota (SDR 29.6 million) under the RCF will be needed given the magnitude of the financing requirement.
- The request is made under the “exogenous shock” window of the RCF.
- Blended financial support under the RCF and RFI is needed because per-capita gross national income now exceeds the operational cut-off of the International Development Association and the risk of external debt distress remains moderate as in the previous request.
- The authorities have requested channeling the expected RFI purchase and RCF disbursement directly to the budget (LOI, ¶2).
- Capacity to repay the Fund under such access would remain adequate:
  - Fund credit outstanding would peak at 19 percent of gross international reserves and 16 percent of exports of goods and services.
- With the requested level of access of 50 percent of quota, the risk of debt distress remains moderate.

### Financing composition and donor support
- Fund emergency financing is catalyzing donor support:
  - Compared to the last staff report and including the current request of IMF emergency financing of 50 percent of quota under the RFI and RCF, unidentified budget support has been reduced from $277 million to $118 million.
  - This reduction reflects approval of a health sector project by the World Bank for $12 million, and the preparation of a health emergency operation and two budget support operations by the Asian Development Bank for a total of $120 million.
- Balance of Payments Financing (2020) key figures from staff text table:
  - Financing Gap: 405.6 (previous report) revised to 500.4 (2020).
  - Identified budget support: 128.6 (previous report) revised to 382.5 (2020).
  - World Bank: 5.0 (previous) revised to 17.2 (2020).
  - ADB: 120.0.
  - IMF RFI/RCF disbursement: 123.6 (previous) revised to 245.3 (2020).
  - Unidentified budget support: 277.0 (previous) revised to 117.9 (2020).

### Executive summary and staff view on RFI/RCF request
- Staff supports the Kyrgyz Republic’s request for purchase under the RFI and disbursement under the RCF.
- RFI/RCF blend financing is justified because the balance of payments need is urgent and there is insufficient time to design and finance a program requiring upper credit tranche conditionality.
- The Fund emergency support helps finance health and economic relief, shores up confidence, and is catalyzing donor support.
- The financing need is now estimated at US$ 500 million compared to around US$ 400 million previously.
- Authorities request that the full amount of the purchase and disbursement be made to the account of the Ministry of Finance at the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR) to provide immediate budget support.

### Fiscal and debt stance, capacity to repay (authorities' assertions)
- Authorities state the risk of debt distress remains moderate owing to their commitment to bring the fiscal deficit below 3 percent of GDP over the next two years.
- Authorities assert their capacity to repay the Fund remains adequate.
- NBKR and the Ministry of Finance have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to outline steps to ensure timely meeting of financial obligations to the IMF.
- Fund obligations based on existing and prospective credit: quota-related purchases noted in 2020 include two purchases under the RFI of 33.3 percent of quota each and two disbursements under the RCF of 16.7 percent of quota each in 2020.

### Policy commitments and governance measures (from Letter of Intent)
- Procurement transparency and oversight commitments:
  - Subject all procurement of urgently needed supplies to an ex-post audit by the Audit Chamber; results to be published on the Ministry of Finance website.
  - Publish documentation on all direct procurement and bidding documents for competitive procurement, including those of state-owned enterprises and joint stock companies with state shares of more than 50 percent and their subsidiaries, on the Public Procurement portal.
  - Publish ex-post validation of delivery along with the name of awarded companies and their beneficial owner(s) for all public procurement contracts.
  - Ensure the Independent Complaints Review Commission on procurement has sufficient means to operate by including its fees on the list of government payable services.
- Debt suspension and use of fiscal space:
  - Intend to request debt service suspension from official bilateral creditors in line with the term sheet in the April 15, 2020 Communiqué of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors.
  - Commit to spend the fiscal space released by that debt service suspension on COVID-19 related health or economic relief and to monitor and report on this.
  - Commit to disclose the debt of public sector borrowing entities to the IMF and the World Bank within 3 months.
- Exchange and payments regime commitments:
  - Do not intend to introduce measures that would exacerbate balance of payments difficulties.
  - Do not intend to impose new or intensify existing restrictions on payments and transfers for current international transactions, trade restrictions for balance of payments purposes, multiple currency practices, or enter into bilateral payments agreements inconsistent with Article VIII of the Fund’s Articles of Agreement.
- IMF safeguards and transparency commitments:
  - NBKR committed to undergo a safeguards assessment before approval of any new subsequent arrangement by the IMF Executive Board.
  - NBKR will continue to provide IMF staff access to its most recently completed audit reports and authorize NBKR’s external auditors to hold discussions with IMF staff.
- Publication consent:
  - Authorities grant permission for publication of the Letter of Intent, the staff report and related documents for the request for purchase under the RFI and disbursement under the RCF.

### Key macroeconomic and external indicators (selected exact figures)
- Social and demographic:
  - Population (in millions, 2017): 6.3
  - GINI Index (2017): 27.3
  - Poverty rate (in percent, national definition, 2018): 22.4
  - Per capita GDP (2018, U.S. dollars): 1,322
- Nominal GDP (in millions of U.S. dollars):
  - 2017: 7,703
  - 2018: 8,271
  - 2019: 8,455
  - 2020: 8,052
  - 2021: 7,694
  - 2025 (Proj.): 10,849
- Current account balance (in millions of U.S. dollars):
  - 2019: -771
  - 2020 (Est.): -1,168
  - 2021 (Proj.): -1,012
  - 2022 (Proj.): -741
  - 2025 (Proj.): -829
- Gross international reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars):
  - 2017: 1,971
  - 2018: 1,919
  - 2019: 1,832
  - 2020 (Est.): 1,950
  - 2021 (Proj.): 2,117
  - 2022 (Proj.): 2,329
  - 2025 (Proj.): 2,918
- Gross reserves (months of next year imports, eop):
  - 2017: 4.0
  - 2018: 3.9
  - 2019: 4.5
  - 2025 (Proj.): 5.2
- External public debt (in percent of GDP):
  - 2017: 53.0
  - 2018: 47.0
  - 2019: 45.5
  - 2020 (Est.): 56.5
  - 2021 (Proj.): 59.1
  - 2022 (Proj.): 55.0
  - 2025 (Proj.): 47.3
- Exports and imports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars):
  - Exports, fob 2017: 1,814; 2025 (Proj.): 3,565
  - Imports, fob 2017: 4,197; 2025 (Proj.): 6,389
- Financial account (in millions of U.S. dollars):
  - 2017: 330
  - 2018: 196
  - 2019: 575
  - 2020 (Est.): 473
  - 2025 (Proj.): 1,108
- Medium- and long-term loans (net), disbursements and amortization (in millions of U.S. dollars):
  - Disbursement 2017: 668; 2018: 606; 2019: 663; 2025 (Proj.) disbursement: 1,246
  - Amortization 2017: -494; 2018: -673; 2019: -398; 2025 (Proj.) amortization: -832
- Exceptional financing (including arrears) reported in table footnote context:
  - 362 (2017) and 400 (2018).

*Source: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY and staff report excerpts (IMF staff report, Kyrgyz Republic), April 29, 2020.*

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### Context and immediate response
- The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has weakened the macroeconomic outlook.
- Authorities launched a health care contingency plan and an initial package of economic measures, together totaling $31 million (0.4 percent of GDP), and are preparing a second, larger package of economic measures of about $400 million (5.2 percent of GDP).
- To address an urgent balance of payments need estimated at about $500 million, the authorities request:
  - an additional purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) of 33.3 percent of quota (SDR 59.2 million), and
  - a disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) of 16.7 percent of quota (SDR 29.6 million) under the “exogenous shock” window of the RCF.
- This follows Board approval on March 26, 2020 of the authorities’ earlier request for the same amounts, and the doubling of the annual access on emergency financing under the “exogenous shock” window of the RCF to 100 percent of quota approved on April 6, 2020.
- The additional request will bring total purchases under the RFI and disbursements under the RCF to 100 percent of quota in 2020.

### Recent economic developments, outlook, and risks
- As of April 29, there were 729 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the country.
- Real GDP growth slowed to 1.5 percent during Q1 2020, owing to contraction of industry, transport, construction and retail trade.
- Inflation rose to 5.9 percent in March year-on-year (y-o-y) owing to food prices.
- Remittances decreased by 12 percent y-o-y in January-February.
- The exchange rate of the KGS vis-à-vis the US$ strengthened by 6 percent since March 24, reducing the depreciation to 14 percent so far this year.
- The central bank sold foreign exchange amounting to $217 million, or 50 percent more than during the whole of last year.
- Tax revenue declined by 11 percent during Q1 y-o-y owing to a drop of indirect taxes and customs duties.
- Under the assumption that the impact from COVID-19 will last for the first half of 2020:
  - Real GDP is now expected to contract by 4 percent in 2020 (+0.4 percent growth in previous staff report).
  - Average headline inflation is expected to reach 10.6 percent.
  - The budget deficit of the general government is expected to widen to 8.8 percent of GDP (7.8 percent in previous staff report).
  - Public debt is expected to increase to 69 percent of GDP (66 percent in previous staff report).
  - The current account deficit is expected to widen to 13.1 percent of GDP (14.5 percent of GDP in previous staff report) owing to a drop in remittances and tourism receipts.
- An urgent financing gap of about $500 million ($406 million in previous staff report) is expected to open up.
- With the financing gap filled by the Fund and development partners, official reserves could be maintained at about 4.5 months of prospective imports of goods and services and the exchange rate depreciation could be contained to a manageable level.
- The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Kyrgyz economy is subject to a considerable margin of uncertainty and could be worse than estimated.

### Policy discussions and recommendations (authorities' intentions in LOI)
- Temporarily loosen macroeconomic and financial policies to finance health and economic relief and support a recovery.
- Specific measures planned (as explained in LOI of March 24):
  - Allow flexibility of the exchange rate and keep monetary policy data dependent considering significant uncertainties.
  - Urgently seek donor financing to close the remaining balance of payments gap and help ease the adjustment burden.
  - Stand ready to provide liquidity to the financial system, while ensuring transparent information is available on eligible collateral.
  - Provide health and economic relief, accommodate a widening of the fiscal deficit provided enough financing is mobilized, and develop a plan to bring the deficit below 3 percent of GDP once the crisis abates.
  - Use banks’ capital and liquidity buffers to absorb credit losses and the liquidity squeeze and, once these buffers are exhausted, show some flexibility on the timing of bringing capital and liquidity above the minimum required.
- Strengthen procurement rules to enhance transparency and ensure efficient spending on the crisis response:
  - Subject all procurement of urgently needed supplies to an ex-post audit by the Audit Chamber, with results published on the Ministry of Finance website.
  - Publish bidding documents for competitive and single tender procurement, including those of state-owned enterprises and joint stock companies with state shares of more than 50 percent and their subsidiaries, on the Public Procurement portal.
  - Publish ex-post validation of delivery along with the name of awarded companies and their beneficial owner(s) for all public procurement contracts.
  - Ensure the Independent Complaints Review Commission on procurement can collect fees to adequately finance its operations.
- Intend to request debt service suspension from official bilateral creditors in line with the term sheet in the April 15, 2020 Communiqué of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors:
  - Use fiscal space released by debt service suspension to finance COVID-19 related health or economic relief and monitor and report such spending.
  - Disclose the debt of public sector borrowing entities to the IMF and the World Bank within 3 months.
  - Preliminary estimates indicate suspension of debt service to Paris Club and G20 creditors could fill about $54 million of the balance of payments financing gap in 2020.

### Financing, access, and capacity to repay
- Staff estimates that an access level of 33.3 percent of quota (SDR 59.2 million) under the RFI and 16.7 percent of quota (SDR 29.6 million) under the RCF will be needed given the magnitude of the financing requirement.
- The request is made under the “exogenous shock” window of the RCF.
- Blended financial support under the RCF and RFI is needed because per-capita gross national income now exceeds the operational cut-off of the International Development Association and the risk of external debt distress remains moderate as in the previous request.
- The authorities have requested channeling the expected RFI purchase and RCF disbursement directly to the budget (LOI, ¶2).
- Capacity to repay the Fund under such access would remain adequate:
  - Fund credit outstanding would peak at 19 percent of gross international reserves and 16 percent of exports of goods and services.
- With the requested level of access of 50 percent of quota, the risk of debt distress remains moderate.

### Financing composition and donor support
- Fund emergency financing is catalyzing donor support:
  - Compared to the last staff report and including the current request of IMF emergency financing of 50 percent of quota under the RFI and RCF, unidentified budget support has been reduced from $277 million to $118 million.
  - This reduction reflects approval of a health sector project by the World Bank for $12 million, and the preparation of a health emergency operation and two budget support operations by the Asian Development Bank for a total of $120 million.
- Text Table 2 (Balance of Payments Financing, 2020) shows:
  - Financing Gap: 405.6 (previous report) revised to 500.4 (2020).
  - Identified budget support: 128.6 (previous report) revised to 382.5 (2020).
  - World Bank: 5.0 (previous) revised to 17.2 (2020).
  - ADB: 120.0.
  - IMF RFI/RCF disbursement: 123.6 (previous) revised to 245.3 (2020).
  - Unidentified budget support: 277.0 (previous) revised to 117.9 (2020).

*Source: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (IMF staff report, Kyrgyz Republic), April 29, 2020.*

### 9.      Staff supports the Kyrgyz Republic’s request for purchase under the RFI and

### 9. Staff supports the Kyrgyz Republic’s request for purchase under the RFI and disbursement under the RCF

### Executive summary and staff view
- Staff supports the Kyrgyz Republic’s request for purchase under the RFI and disbursement under the RCF.
- RFI/RCF blend financing is justified because the balance of payments need is urgent and there is insufficient time to design and finance a program requiring upper credit tranche conditionality.
- The Fund emergency support helps finance health and economic relief, shores up confidence, and is catalyzing donor support.

### Authorities’ request and financing amounts
- The financing need is now estimated at US$ 500 million compared to around US$ 400 million previously.
- The authorities request:
  - another purchase under the RFI of 33.3 percent of quota (SDR 59.2 million);
  - an additional disbursement under the RCF of 16.7 percent of quota (SDR 29.6 million).
- The authorities request that the full amount of the purchase and disbursement be made to the account of the Ministry of Finance at the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR) to provide immediate budget support.

### Fiscal and debt stance, capacity to repay
- The authorities state the risk of debt distress remains moderate owing to their commitment to bring the fiscal deficit below 3 percent of GDP over the next two years.
- The authorities assert their capacity to repay the Fund remains adequate.
- The NBKR and the Ministry of Finance have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to outline steps to ensure timely meeting of financial obligations to the IMF.
- Fund obligations based on existing and prospective credit: quota-related purchases noted in 2020 include two purchases under the RFI of 33.3 percent of quota each and two disbursements under the RCF of 16.7 percent of quota each in 2020.

### Policy commitments and governance measures (from Letter of Intent)
- Procurement transparency and oversight:
  - Subject all procurement of urgently needed supplies to an ex-post audit by the Audit Chamber; results to be published on the Ministry of Finance website.
  - Publish documentation on all direct procurement and bidding documents for competitive procurement, including those of state-owned enterprises and joint stock companies with state shares of more than 50 percent and their subsidiaries, on the Public Procurement portal.
  - Publish ex-post validation of delivery along with the name of awarded companies and their beneficial owner(s) for all public procurement contracts.
  - Ensure the Independent Complaints Review Commission on procurement has sufficient means to operate by including its fees on the list of government payable services.
- Debt suspension and use of fiscal space:
  - Intend to request debt service suspension from official bilateral creditors in line with the term sheet in the April 15, 2020 Communiqué of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors.
  - Commit to spend the fiscal space released by that debt service suspension on COVID-19 related health or economic relief and to monitor and report on this.
  - Commit to disclose the debt of public sector borrowing entities to the IMF and the World Bank within 3 months.
- Exchange and payments regime:
  - Do not intend to introduce measures that would exacerbate balance of payments difficulties.
  - Do not intend to impose new or intensify existing restrictions on payments and transfers for current international transactions, trade restrictions for balance of payments purposes, multiple currency practices, or enter into bilateral payments agreements inconsistent with Article VIII of the Fund’s Articles of Agreement.
- IMF safeguards and transparency:
  - NBKR committed to undergo a safeguards assessment before approval of any new subsequent arrangement by the IMF Executive Board.
  - NBKR will continue to provide IMF staff access to its most recently completed audit reports and authorize NBKR’s external auditors to hold discussions with IMF staff.
- Publication consent:
  - Authorities grant permission for publication of the Letter of Intent, the staff report and related documents for the request for purchase under the RFI and disbursement under the RCF.

### Key macroeconomic and external indicators (selected exact figures from source tables)
- Social and demographic:
  - Population (in millions, 2017): 6.3
  - GINI Index (2017): 27.3
  - Poverty rate (in percent, national definition, 2018): 22.4
  - Per capita GDP (2018, U.S. dollars): 1,322
- Nominal GDP (in millions of U.S. dollars), selected years:
  - 2017: 7,703
  - 2018: 8,271
  - 2019: 8,455
  - 2020: 8,052
  - 2021: 7,694
  - 2025 (Proj.): 10,849
- Current account balance (in millions of U.S. dollars), selected years:
  - 2019: -771
  - 2020 (Est.): -1,168
  - 2021 (Proj.): -1,012
  - 2022 (Proj.): -741
  - 2025 (Proj.): -829
- Gross international reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars), selected years:
  - 2017: 1,971
  - 2018: 1,919
  - 2019: 1,832
  - 2020 (Est.): 1,950
  - 2021 (Proj.): 2,117
  - 2022 (Proj.): 2,329
  - 2025 (Proj.): 2,918
- Gross reserves (months of next year imports, eop), selected years:
  - 2017: 4.0
  - 2018: 3.9
  - 2019: 4.5
  - 2025 (Proj.): 5.2
- External public debt (in percent of GDP), selected years:
  - 2017: 53.0
  - 2018: 47.0
  - 2019: 45.5
  - 2020 (Est.): 56.5
  - 2021 (Proj.): 59.1
  - 2022 (Proj.): 55.0
  - 2025 (Proj.): 47.3
- Exports and imports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars), 2017 and projections:
  - Exports, fob 2017: 1,814; 2025 (Proj.): 3,565
  - Imports, fob 2017: 4,197; 2025 (Proj.): 6,389

### Financing and balance of payments specifics
- Financial account (in millions of U.S. dollars), selected years:
  - 2017: 330
  - 2018: 196
  - 2019: 575
  - 2020 (Est.): 473
  - 2025 (Proj.): 1,108
- Medium- and long-term loans (net), disbursements and amortization (in millions of U.S. dollars), selected flows:
  - Disbursement 2017: 668; 2018: 606; 2019: 663; 2025 (Proj.) disbursement: 1,246
  - Amortization 2017: -494; 2018: -673; 2019: -398; 2025 (Proj.) amortization: -832
- Exceptional financing (including arrears) reported: 362 (2017) and 400 (2018) in table footnote context.
- Financing gap entries and overall balance figures are provided in table detail for 2017–2025.

*Source: Kyrgyz Republic — Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (IMF Country Report No. 20/90 and associated Letter of Intent and staff tables).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2020/english/1kgzea2020002.pdf_