## ST. LUCIA — Report on Rebasing of GDP Mission (1lcaea2020003)

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**Canonical URL:** [ST. LUCIA — Report on Rebasing of GDP Mission (1lcaea2020003)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2020/english/1lcaea2020003.pdf)

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---

### Mission overview and objectives
- TA mission dates: January 27–February 7, 2020; report completed in February 2020.
- Purpose: Provide advice to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on compiling rebased GDP estimates and implementing relevant 2008 SNA recommendations.
- Outputs to produce:
  - annual and quarterly current and constant price GDP by economic activity (GDP-P);
  - annual current price GDP by expenditure;
  - updated Supply and Use Tables (SUT) benchmark estimates for 2016 (ISIC Revision 4).
- Publication metadata: IMF Country Report No. 20/164; price: $18.00 per printed copy.

### Summary of mission outcomes — key findings
- The 2006 base year for GDP estimates was outdated; rebasing to 2016 and implementing 2008 SNA changes warranted.
- Revised SUT benchmark estimates compiled and rebalanced; improved industry coding of NIC employment data enabled more robust production-per-worker estimates and identification of under/overestimation in some industries.
- Revised GDP level for 2016 is 9.3 percent higher than the latest published estimate.
- Main drivers of the 2016 GDP level increase:
  - Improved coverage contributed 137.2 percent of the total change.
  - Revised IC to output ratios contributed -38.0 percent of the total change.
  - Data revisions contributed 0.8 percent of the total change.
- Numeric summary of total change:
  - Total change to GDP Level: XCD Millions 430.5 (100.0% contributors)
  - Improved Coverage: XCD 590.5 (137.2%)
    - Corporations (mainly VAT turnover and credit union data): XCD 338.1 (57%)
    - Own produced household consumption: XCD 37.5 (6%)
    - Households (Informal Sector and Labor Force Surveys): XCD 165.0 (28%)
    - Government (Local Government/Statutory Bodies): XCD 72.0 (12%)
    - NPISHs: XCD 13.2 (2%)
    - FISIM (increase in FISIM IC from credit unions): XCD (26.2) (-4%)
    - Subsidies on products: XCD (9.1) (-2%)
  - Revised IC to Output Ratios: XCD (163.6) (-38.0%)
  - Data Revisions: XCD 3.6 (0.8%)

### Methodological and data improvements implemented
- SUT and compilation system:
  - SUT for 2016 compiled and rebalanced; benchmark estimates incorporated into redeveloped compilation workbooks.
  - Improved production estimates classified to ISIC Revision 4.
  - Incorporated relevant 2008 SNA changes: replaced imputed bank services charge method with FISIM method and allocated FISIM by industry and sector; compiled consumption of fixed capital (CFC) for Government and added it to GVA for public administration.
- Source data and reclassifications leading to adjustments:
  - Recalculation of production estimates for electricity, gas and water; retail and wholesale trade (reclassifying sale of gas in cylinders); domestic services and other administrative and support services (reclassifying gardening, house cleaning and security services); and air transport (treatment of branch operations of foreign airlines).
  - Incorporated older and recent data revisions for construction, accommodation, food and beverage services, taxis, and tour operators.
  - Incorporated revised travel services credits for 2000–2014 and updated tourist expenditure data for 2015 onwards, aligning GDP-P production estimates with balance of payments travel credits.
- Current price estimate improvements:
  - Recompiled current price estimates back to 2000 for most industries; some industries only back to 2006 due to data constraints.
  - Where 2006 IC-to-output ratios were robust, used a wedge to adjust IC-to-output ratios for 2007–2015 to reflect improved coverage without distorting value added.
  - For industries with weak 2006 ratios (e.g., fishing, business services), adjusted ratios upwards before applying wedges to keep value added realistic and consistent with improved coverage.
- Constant price estimate improvements:
  - Replaced weaker volume indicators with NIC employment data for several manufacturing and services industries (wearing apparel, rubber and plastics, fabricated metals, travel agents, professional services, other administrative and support services, other personal and social services).
  - Reweighted and replaced component price indices for composite IC price indices (examples: other crops, quarrying, sea transport).
  - Adjusted output price indices for education: replaced adjusted CPI for education with a weighted price index comprising price indices for three levels of education (using SUT data).
  - For arts, entertainment and recreation, and other services, replaced adjusted non-food CPI with adjusted services CPI.
- Linking and back-casting:
  - For years prior to 2016, constant price estimates linked and back-cast by reversing real growth rates from the previous 2006 base year series, maintaining prior real growth rates where possible.
  - 2006 workbooks for accommodation, food and beverage services, taxis and tour operators updated to include travel services revisions; growth rates from revised constant price estimates for 2006 onwards reversed and used to back-cast constant 2018 price series from the 2016 link year.

### Coverage and contributor breakdown (high-level)
- Improved coverage accounted for the bulk of the upward revision to GDP in 2016:
  - Non-financial corporations and credit unions: 57% of coverage-driven increase.
  - Informal sector activities and production for own consumption: 34% of coverage-driven increase.
  - Extrabudgetary government units: 12% of coverage-driven increase.
  - NPISHs: 2% of coverage-driven increase.
- Offsetting factors:
  - Improved coverage of IC of FISIM for credit unions reduced the change by -4%.
  - Product subsidies reduced the change by -2%.

### Outputs produced and dissemination timetable
- Redeveloped compilation workbooks and revised current and constant 2018 price quarterly and annual GDP-P estimates compiled up to Q3 2019.
- Incorporation of Q3 2019 indicator data and price indices completed.
- Agreed action plan and release timetable with CSO Director:
  - Target Date February 2020: Compile GDP-P estimates for Q4 2019 and the initial 2019 estimates and share with key data users. Responsible institution: CSO.
  - Target Date April 2020: Disseminate revised current price and rebased constant price annual and quarterly GDP-P estimates. Responsible institution: CSO.
- CSO commitments and deadlines:
  - CSO to update annual and quarterly GDP-P estimates to Q4 2019 and share with key data users by February 21, 2020.
  - Estimates to be disseminated by April 3, 2020.

### Capacity building and stakeholder engagement
- Training provided to CSO national accounts staff on methodological changes and compiling revised GDP-P estimates, including use of more representative indicators and prices, wedging and linking techniques.
- Mission met with Minister and Permanent Secretary of Economic Development to explain changes to benchmark SUT estimates, quality of revised GDP-P estimates, and the release timetable.
- Mission advised CSO Director that national accountants should not be given other duties for the two weeks required to finalize estimates.

---

### Revised GDP-P estimates and scope (Section 2)
- Revised annual GDP-P current and constant 2006 price estimates compiled for 2006 to 2018 for the ECCB.
- Estimates of GDP and GVA by industry are classified according to ISIC Revision 3.1.
- Updated current price annual estimates for 2006 to 2018 were produced first; previously released constant price growth rates were applied to the revised 2006 base year estimates to derive updated constant 2006 price estimates for 2006 to 2016.
- From Q1 2017 onwards, the real growth rates from the 2018 GDP series are applied to the 2006 GDP series at the elementary and aggregated industry levels.
- Consequence: The sum of detailed industries’ constant 2006 price estimates will not equal the equivalent period’s aggregated industries or total GDP-P constant price estimates for Q1 2017 onwards, as they are not additive. This arrangement was agreed between the Director of the CSO and the Director of Statistics at the ECCB.

### Methodological changes, training, and technical work (Section 2)
- More detailed information on changes in the GDP-P methodology at the industry level provided in Appendix III; revised industry GVA and GDP-P estimates included in Appendix IV.
- Training provided on:
  - Use of the more representative employment indicators and various price indices discussed.
  - Back-casting and linking techniques for the current price estimates.
  - Linking the constant 2006 price series with the constant 2018 price series.
- Task undertaken during the mission to ensure ECCB had consistent estimates to add to other member states’ estimates to continue calculation of total GDP-P in current and constant 2006 prices for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union.

### Required updates, timeline, and data release (Section 2)
- National accounts compilers need to update annual and quarterly GDP-P estimates to Q4 2019 and produce initial GDP-P estimates for 2019 by February 21, 2020.
- These revised GDP-P estimates will then be shared with the Finance Department, Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, and the IMF mission team, and are expected to be released by April 3, 2020.

### Recommended actions and priority milestones (as listed)
- Complete checking the formulae in the compilation workbooks and switch to the XLPBM add-in in the shared drive. — 02/14/2020
- Incorporate updated indicator data and price indices for Q4 2019. — 02/17/2020
- Compile the GDP-P estimates for Q4 2019 and initial 2019 estimates. — 02/21/2020
- Share the updated estimates with the ECCB, MOF and IMF mission team. — 02/21/2020
- Release the revised current and rebased constant 2018 price annual and quarterly GDP-P estimates. — 04/03/2020

### Stakeholders and officials involved (Section 2)
- Director, Central Statistics Office (CSO) and Director of Statistics at the ECCB agreed on non-additivity from Q1 2017 onwards.
- Officials met during the mission included:
  - Honorable Guy Joseph (Minister of Economic Development, Housing, Urban Renewal, Transport and Civil Aviation)
  - Mr. Claudius Emmanuel (Permanent Secretary, MOED)
  - Mr. Tommy Descartes (Chief Economist, MOED)
  - Ms. Cointha Thomas (Permanent Secretary, MOF)
  - Ms. Gemma Lafeuillee (Director of Research and Policy, MOF)
  - Ms. Nadia Wells-Hyacinth (Director of Financial Administration, MOF)
  - Mr. Sean Mathurin (Director, CSO)
  - Mr. Richard Harris (Deputy Director, CSO)
  - Ms. Uranda Xavier (Statistician, CSO)
  - Mr. Arnold Lafeuillee (Statistician, CSO)
  - Ms. Stephanie Martial Constantin (Statistician, CSO)
  - Ms. Abigail Leo (Assistant Statistician, CSO)

*Source: Technical Assistance Report—Rebasing GDP Mission for St. Lucia (January 27–February 7, 2020), IMF Country Report No. 20/164; 1lcaea2020003.*

### Section 1

### ST. LUCIA — Report on Rebasing of GDP Mission (Section 1)

### Mission overview and objectives
- TA mission dates: January 27–February 7, 2020; report completed in February 2020.
- Purpose: Provide advice to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on compiling rebased GDP estimates and implementing relevant 2008 SNA recommendations.
- Outputs to produce: annual and quarterly current and constant price GDP by economic activity (GDP-P); annual current price GDP by expenditure; updated Supply and Use Tables (SUT) benchmark estimates for 2016 (ISIC Revision 4).
- Publication metadata: IMF Country Report No. 20/164; price: $18.00 per printed copy.

### Summary of mission outcomes — key findings
- The 2006 base year for GDP estimates was outdated; rebasing to 2016 and implementing 2008 SNA changes warranted.
- Revised SUT benchmark estimates compiled and rebalanced; improved industry coding of NIC employment data enabled more robust production-per-worker estimates and identification of under/overestimation in some industries.
- Revised GDP level for 2016 is 9.3 percent higher than the latest published estimate.
- Main drivers of the 2016 GDP level increase:
  - Improved coverage contributed 137.2 percent of the total change.
  - Revised IC to output ratios contributed -38.0 percent of the total change.
  - Data revisions contributed 0.8 percent of the total change.
- Numeric summary of total change:
  - Total change to GDP Level: XCD Millions 430.5 (100.0% contributors)
  - Improved Coverage: XCD 590.5 (137.2%)
    - Corporations (mainly VAT turnover and credit union data): XCD 338.1 (57%)
    - Own produced household consumption: XCD 37.5 (6%)
    - Households (Informal Sector and Labor Force Surveys): XCD 165.0 (28%)
    - Government (Local Government/Statutory Bodies): XCD 72.0 (12%)
    - NPISHs: XCD 13.2 (2%)
    - FISIM (increase in FISIM IC from credit unions): XCD (26.2) (-4%)
    - Subsidies on products: XCD (9.1) (-2%)
  - Revised IC to Output Ratios: XCD (163.6) (-38.0%)
  - Data Revisions: XCD 3.6 (0.8%)

### Methodological and data improvements implemented
- SUT and compilation system:
  - SUT for 2016 compiled and rebalanced; benchmark estimates incorporated into redeveloped compilation workbooks.
  - Improved production estimates classified to ISIC Revision 4.
  - Incorporated relevant 2008 SNA changes: replaced imputed bank services charge method with FISIM method and allocated FISIM by industry and sector; compiled consumption of fixed capital (CFC) for Government and added it to GVA for public administration.
- Source data and reclassifications leading to adjustments:
  - Recalculation of production estimates for: electricity, gas and water; retail and wholesale trade (reclassifying sale of gas in cylinders); domestic services and other administrative and support services (reclassifying gardening, house cleaning and security services); and air transport (treatment of branch operations of foreign airlines).
  - Incorporated older and recent data revisions for construction, accommodation, food and beverage services, taxis, and tour operators.
  - Incorporated revised travel services credits for 2000–2014 and updated tourist expenditure data for 2015 onwards, aligning GDP-P production estimates with balance of payments travel credits.
- Current price estimate improvements:
  - Recompiled current price estimates back to 2000 for most industries; some industries only back to 2006 due to data constraints.
  - Where 2006 IC-to-output ratios were robust, used a wedge to adjust IC-to-output ratios for 2007–2015 to reflect improved coverage without distorting value added.
  - For industries with weak 2006 ratios (e.g., fishing, business services), adjusted ratios upwards before applying wedges to keep value added realistic and consistent with improved coverage.
- Constant price estimate improvements:
  - Replaced weaker volume indicators with NIC employment data for several manufacturing and services industries (wearing apparel, rubber and plastics, fabricated metals, travel agents, professional services, other administrative and support services, other personal and social services).
  - Reweighted and replaced component price indices for composite IC price indices (examples: other crops, quarrying, sea transport).
  - Adjusted output price indices for education: replaced adjusted CPI for education with a weighted price index comprising price indices for three levels of education (using SUT data).
  - For arts, entertainment and recreation, and other services, replaced adjusted non-food CPI with adjusted services CPI.
- Linking and back-casting:
  - For years prior to 2016, constant price estimates linked and back-cast by reversing real growth rates from the previous 2006 base year series, maintaining prior real growth rates where possible.
  - 2006 workbooks for accommodation, food and beverage services, taxis and tour operators updated to include travel services revisions; growth rates from revised constant price estimates for 2006 onwards reversed and used to back-cast constant 2018 price series from the 2016 link year.

### Coverage and contributor breakdown (high-level)
- Improved coverage accounted for the bulk of the upward revision to GDP in 2016:
  - Non-financial corporations and credit unions: 57% of coverage-driven increase.
  - Informal sector activities and production for own consumption: 34% of coverage-driven increase.
  - Extrabudgetary government units: 12% of coverage-driven increase.
  - NPISHs: 2% of coverage-driven increase.
- Offsetting factors:
  - Improved coverage of IC of FISIM for credit unions reduced the change by -4%.
  - Product subsidies reduced the change by -2%.

### Outputs produced and dissemination timetable
- Redeveloped compilation workbooks and revised current and constant 2018 price quarterly and annual GDP-P estimates compiled up to Q3 2019.
- Incorporation of Q3 2019 indicator data and price indices completed.
- Agreed action plan and release timetable with CSO Director:
  - Target Date February 2020: Compile GDP-P estimates for Q4 2019 and the initial 2019 estimates and share with key data users. Responsible institution: CSO.
  - Target Date April 2020: Disseminate revised current price and rebased constant price annual and quarterly GDP-P estimates. Responsible institution: CSO.
- CSO to update annual and quarterly GDP-P estimates to Q4 2019 and share with key data users by February 21, 2020; estimates to be disseminated by April 3, 2020.

### Capacity building and stakeholder engagement
- Training provided to CSO national accounts staff on methodological changes and compiling revised GDP-P estimates, including use of more representative indicators and prices, wedging and linking techniques.
- Mission met with Minister and Permanent Secretary of Economic Development to explain changes to benchmark SUT estimates, quality of revised GDP-P estimates, and the release timetable.
- Mission advised CSO Director that national accountants should not be given other duties for the two weeks required to finalize estimates.

*Source: Technical Assistance Report—Rebasing GDP Mission for St. Lucia (January 27–February 7, 2020), IMF Country Report No. 20/164.*

### Section 2

### 1lcaea2020003 - Section 2

### Revised GDP-P estimates and scope
- Revised annual GDP-P current and constant 2006 price estimates compiled for 2006 to 2018 for the ECCB.
- Estimates of GDP and GVA by industry are classified according to ISIC Revision 3.1.
- Updated current price annual estimates for 2006 to 2018 were produced first; previously released constant price growth rates were applied to the revised 2006 base year estimates to derive updated constant 2006 price estimates for 2006 to 2016.
- From Q1 2017 onwards, the real growth rates from the 2018 GDP series are applied to the 2006 GDP series at the elementary and aggregated industry levels.
- Consequence: The sum of detailed industries’ constant 2006 price estimates will not equal the equivalent period’s aggregated industries or total GDP-P constant price estimates for Q1 2017 onwards, as they are not additive. This arrangement was agreed between the Director of the CSO and the Director of Statistics at the ECCB.

### Methodological changes, training, and technical work
- More detailed information on changes in the GDP-P methodology at the industry level provided in Appendix III; revised industry GVA and GDP-P estimates included in Appendix IV.
- Training provided on:
  - Use of the more representative employment indicators and various price indices discussed.
  - Back-casting and linking techniques for the current price estimates.
  - Linking the constant 2006 price series with the constant 2018 price series.
- Task undertaken during the mission to ensure ECCB had consistent estimates to add to other member states’ estimates to continue calculation of total GDP-P in current and constant 2006 prices for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union.

### Required updates, timeline, and data release
- National accounts compilers need to update annual and quarterly GDP-P estimates to Q4 2019 and produce initial GDP-P estimates for 2019 by February 21, 2020.
- These revised GDP-P estimates will then be shared with the Finance Department, Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, and the IMF mission team, and are expected to be released by April 3, 2020.

### Recommended actions (as listed)
- Complete checking the formulae in the compilation workbooks and switch to the XLPBM add-in in the shared drive.
- Incorporate updated indicator data and price indices for Q4 2019.
- Compile the GDP-P estimates for Q4 2019 and initial 2019 estimates.
- Share the updated estimates with the ECCB, MOF and IMF mission team.
- Release the revised current and rebased constant 2018 price annual and quarterly GDP-P estimates.

### Priority actions / Milestones and target completion dates
- Complete checking the formulae in the compilation workbooks and switch to the XLPBM add-in in the shared drive. — 02/14/2020
- Incorporate updated indicator data and price indices for Q4 2019. — 02/17/2020
- Compile the GDP-P estimates for Q4 2019 and initial 2019 estimates. — 02/21/2020
- Share the updated estimates with the ECCB, MOF and IMF mission team. — 02/21/2020
- Release the revised current and rebased constant 2018 price annual and quarterly GDP-P estimates. — 04/03/2020

### Stakeholders and officials involved
- Director, Central Statistics Office (CSO) and Director of Statistics at the ECCB agreed on non-additivity from Q1 2017 onwards.
- Officials met during the mission included: Honorable Guy Joseph (Minister of Economic Development, Housing, Urban Renewal, Transport and Civil Aviation), Mr. Claudius Emmanuel (Permanent Secretary, MOED), Mr. Tommy Descartes (Chief Economist, MOED), Ms. Cointha Thomas (Permanent Secretary, MOF), Ms. Gemma Lafeuillee (Director of Research and Policy, MOF), Ms. Nadia Wells-Hyacinth (Director of Financial Administration, MOF), Mr. Sean Mathurin (Director, CSO), Mr. Richard Harris (Deputy Director, CSO), Ms. Uranda Xavier (Statistician, CSO), Mr. Arnold Lafeuillee (Statistician, CSO), Ms. Stephanie Martial Constantin (Statistician, CSO), and Ms. Abigail Leo (Assistant Statistician, CSO).

*Source: 1lcaea2020003 - Section 2*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2020/english/1lcaea2020003.pdf_