## MYANMAR: Report on the External Sector Statistics Mission (June 3–5, 2019)

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**Canonical URL:** [MYANMAR: Report on the External Sector Statistics Mission (June 3–5, 2019)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2020/english/1mmrea2020001.pdf)

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### Summary of mission outcomes and priority recommendations
- A TA mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted for the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) in Nay Pyi Taw during June 3–5, 2019, as part of the Project on the Improvement of ESS in the Asia–Pacific region. The Project is funded by the Government of Japan; managed by the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA); and implemented by the IMF Capacity Development Office in Thailand (CDOT).
- Mirror-data analysis using Thailand and China bilateral trade data indicated potential under-reporting of Myanmar imports in 2018:
  - Under a conservative scenario (excluding trade through land border checkpoints that may be onward-transit), Myanmar’s 2018 imports are under-reported by approximately 1.9 billion USD for imports from Thailand (total discrepancies are 2.0 billion USD).
  - Myanmar’s 2018 imports are under-reported by approximately 1.9 billion USD for imports from China (total discrepancies are 4.3 billion USD).
- Travel credits are assessed as potentially understated:
  - Potential understatement of travel credits by almost 2.0 billion USD in 2018.
  - Potential understatement in the range of 0.9–2.7 billion USD for the years 2014–2017.
  - Inbound tourists grew from 2.0 million tourists in 2013 to 3.6 million tourists in 2018.
- The CBM Balance of Payments Section (BPS) compilation file was modified to accommodate suggested coverage adjustments for imports and a new estimation model for freight and insurance on imports proposed during March 2019 mission.
- Priority actions (selected from Table 1):
  - By March 2020: Check with Myanmar Customs whether imports for re-exports were included or excluded from imports. (Responsible: CSO)
  - By March 2020: Quantify imports coverage adjustment amount, using data from Thailand for 2014–2017, in line with the method demonstrated by the mission. (Responsible: BPS)
  - By March 2020: Request detailed data on average duration of stay and average daily travel expenses from the MOHT’s Travel Survey to further investigate under-recording of travel credits. (Responsible: BPS)

### Detailed technical assessment and recommendations

#### A. Updated Action Plan (selected items)
- High-priority compilation and methodological updates:
  - ESS Advisor to work with BPS in reviewing and modifying estimation models for main balance of payments and IIP components: Estimation models for travel (pending MOHT’s completing the compilation file for 2018 tourism survey responses) — Target Completion Date: July 2020.
  - Other estimation models for main balance of payments and IIP components — Target Completion Date: July 2020.
- Capacity building and data-sharing:
  - CBM to provide in-house training on basic ESS concepts and operational guidelines to new compilers — Continuous basis.
  - CBM to continue nominating ESS compilers to IMF’s ESS courses and regional courses — Continuous basis.
  - MOPF and CBM FEMD to provide EDS data to BPS on a quarterly and timely basis — Continuously.
  - BPS to follow-up with CSO on data requests and proposed survey modifications — Target Completion Date: June 2020.
  - BPS to seek approval from CBM management for disseminating EDS — Target Completion Date: June 2020.
  - CSO IMTS compilers to compare Myanmar data with counterpart data for HS Chapters relevant to military goods/large equipment imports — Target Completion Date: June 2020.
  - CSO IMTS compilers to seek CSO management approval to use supplementary data sources (such as counterparts’ data) to verify and supplement Customs data — Target Completion Date: June 2020.
  - BPS to communicate with MOLES regarding the data entry spreadsheet for ESS-related question added to the labor force survey — Target Completion Date: June 2020.
  - BPS to prepare an official letter to the Treasury Department to request detailed data on government EDS in soft copy format — Target Completion Date: December 2020.
- Priority scale used: H – High, M – Medium, L – Low.

#### B. Potential under-coverage of Myanmar imports
- Method and findings:
  - March 2019 pilot exercise used Thailand’s exports-to-Myanmar data cross-classified by border checkpoint and 2-digit HS code to identify potential under-coverage in Myanmar IMTS.
  - The mission trained BPS and CSO compilers on retrieving and using China Customs mirror data (China’s exports to Myanmar, by province and commodity) to quantify under-coverage, demonstrated using 2018 data (see Appendix I).
  - Under conservative scenario (excluding land-border checkpoint trade likely to be onward-transit), the 2018 under-reporting estimates were:
    - Approximately 1.9 billion USD under-reported for imports from Thailand (total discrepancies 2.0 billion USD).
    - Approximately 1.9 billion USD under-reported for imports from China (total discrepancies 4.3 billion USD).
- Implementation note:
  - BPS was advised to apply discrepancy-analysis outcomes as interim “coverage adjustments” for imports in the goods account of the balance of payments while Customs improves data collection and compilation.
  - BPS initially delayed revision pending adjustments to other ESS items (notably imports from China and travel credits) to avoid frequent revisions.
- Recommended action:
  - BPS and CSO compilers to repeat the mirror exercise to quantify coverage adjustments for 2014–2017. Consult CDOT ESS Advisor via e-mail, as necessary.

#### C. Travel credits
- Assessment and calculations:
  - The mission verified MOHT-published travel credits for 2013–2017 against MOHT variables: number of tourists, average duration of stay (days), and average travel expenditure per person per day (ATE).
  - Using published number of tourists, average duration of stay, and travel credits, the implied ATE was 55–69 percent lower than the published ATE.
  - Even accounting for (i) lower spending by one-day land-border visitors and (ii) continuous depreciation of the Kyat over the past five years, the growing number of inbound tourists (from 2.0 million in 2013 to 3.6 million in 2018) suggests published travel credits may be underestimated.
- Appendix II summary (selected figures from verification):
  - MOHT's published ATE: 2013: 145.00$, 2014: 170.00$, 2015: 171.00$, 2016: 154.00$, 2017: 153.00$, 2018: (published table shows blank under header but implied context).
  - Implied average expenditure (MOHT travel receipts ÷ no. of tourists ÷ avg. number of days) for 2013–2017: 64.51$, 53.20$, 68.71$, 63.54$, Much lower than published data.
  - Number of tourists: 2013: 2,044,307; 2014: 3,081,412; 2015: 4,432,301; 2016: 2,907,207; 2017: 3,443,133; 2018: 3,551,428.
  - Current travel receipts published by MOHT (used by CBM in the BOP): 2013: 962.81$ M; 2014: 1,613.31$ M; 2015: 2,122.48$ M; 2016: 2,197.15$ M; 2017: 1,968.87$ M; 2018: 1,651.49$ M.
  - Example test scenario (Test#1.1, deducting day-visit tourists from TH & CN by 30%): Estimated travel expenditure results (in M.$): 2013: 1,850.87$; 2014: 3,633.58$; 2015: 4,808.41$; 2016: 3,866.34$; 2017: 3,532.96$; 2018: 3,640.44$.
  - Differences between Test#1.1 and current MOHT travel receipts: 2013: 888.07$; 2014: 2,020.27$; 2015: 2,685.93$; 2016: 1,669.19$; 2017: 1,564.09$; 2018: 1,988.95$.
- Required further investigation:
  - Detailed data from immigration and MOHT tourism survey needed: (i) inbound tourists broken down by checkpoint, by type of travel document (passports versus border passes), and by country; (ii) individual survey responses on travel expenditure and duration of stay.
  - Granular data would allow removal of outliers and deriving realistic ATE for tourist categories, improving total travel credits estimates.
- Recommended action:
  - BPS to request detailed data from immigration and MOHT based on the listed variables.

#### D. Other matters
- External debt statistics (EDS):
  - The mission discussed concerns over private sector EDS produced during August 2018 training. Clarification: BPS compilers and Directorate of Investment and Company Administration (DICA) coordinated to avoid double-counting across sources.
  - The DG expressed intention to disseminate EDS (submission of the Quarterly EDS templates to the World Bank) after careful review of the private sector EDS, which CBM compiled for the first time.

#### E. Officials met during the mission
- Ms. Nwe Ni Win — Deputy Director, BPS, CBM
- Mr. Zaw Zaw Htun — Research Officer, BPS, CBM
- Mr. Nyan Myo Tun — Research Officer, BPS, CBM
- Ms. Lay Lay Aung — Research Officer, BPS, CBM
- Ms. Ei Ei Khin — Assistant Director, CSO
- Ms. Yin Min Tun — Officer, CSO
- Mr. Wai Lynn Oo — Officer, CSO

*Prepared by Angsupalee Wacharakiat; January 2020. International Monetary Fund.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2020/english/1mmrea2020001.pdf_