## 1ngaea2020002

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---

### Preface and mission details
- Technical mission visited Abuja, Nigeria during January 29–February 11, 2020 to assess spending associated with making substantial progress along the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
- Mission team: Mauricio Soto (head), Mariano Moszoro, Julieth Pico (all FAD).
- Financing: European Union under the EU-IMF Public Financial Management Partnership Program (PFM-PP).
- Hosts and key government contacts: D.M. Dauda (Secretary of Programme, OSSAP-SDGs); Dr. Bala Yusuf Yunusa (Senior Technical Advisor, OSSAP-SDGs); meetings with Zainab Shamsuna Ahmed; Prince Clem Ikanade Agba; Suleiman H. Adamu; Didi Walson-Jack; Emmanuel Meribole; Babangida Hussaini; Adeoye E.O.
- Development partner engagements included staff from the European Union Delegation, UNDP, World Bank, WHO, African Development Bank.
- Coordination support and logistics acknowledged from Chukwuemeka Olanrewaju Ogbuehi; Ogunleye Femi; Zainab Mangga; Laraba Bonet.
- The mission occurred before COVID-19 became a global pandemic; the report does not reflect the impact from COVID-19 and focuses on medium-term challenges and additional spending needed to ensure substantial progress along the SDGs by 2030.

### Executive summary — high‑level findings
- Total estimated additional spending required for substantial SDG progress by 2030: 18 percentage points of GDP (reported as "18 percentage points of GDP by 2030").
- Sectoral additional annual spending estimates (percentage points of GDP by 2030):
  - Education: 7.7 percentage points of GDP
  - Health: 4 percentage points of GDP (text); figure elsewhere lists 4.3 percentage points of GDP
  - Electricity: 1 percent of GDP
  - Roads: 2 percent of GDP
  - Water and sanitation: 3.1 percentage points of GDP
  - Total: 18.1 percent of GDP (figure lists "18.1"; executive text states "18 percentage points of GDP")
- Comparison with peers: Nigeria additional spending needs higher in education and water and sanitation and lower in health, electricity, and roads relative to LIDC averages; figure reports Nigeria at "18.1" percent of GDP versus LIDC "15.4" percent of GDP.
- Governance and coordination emphasis:
  - Whole-of-government approach with strong coordination between federal, state, and local administrations; OSSAP-SDGs leading federal coordination.
  - Prioritize data collection and analysis to inform best practices and target scarce resources.

### Executive summary — selected key statistics
- "50 percent of the population in school-age"
- Healthy life expectancy: "49 years"
- Electricity connection: "54 percent of the population is connected to an electricity grid that collapses about once a month"
- Access to safely managed water: "less than 4 percent of the population"
- Population projection: population projected to grow by "30 percent—about 60 million people—between now and 2030"
- Current combined public and private education spending: "1.6 percent of GDP"
- Additional spending aggregate shown as "18.1" percent of GDP in figure (Nigeria total) and "15.4" for LIDC average in the figure comparisons.

### Methodological notes
- Additional spending for education and health reported as percentage points of GDP corresponds to the difference between the share of GDP consistent with high performance in 2030 and the current level of spending as a share of GDP.
- For physical capital, additional spending in percentage points of GDP corresponds to the annualized spending required to close infrastructure gaps between 2019 and 2030.
- Costing follows the methodology developed by Gaspar and others (2019), IMF Staff Discussion Note "Fiscal Policy and Development: Human, Social, and Physical Investment for the SDGs."

### I. Introduction — key diagnostics
- Major development gaps:
  - "Half of the student-age population is enrolled in schools."
  - Healthy life expectancy is "49 years."
  - "54 percent of the population is connected to an electricity grid that collapses about once a month."
  - Roads are in precarious condition.
  - "Less than 4 percent of the population have access to safely managed water."
- Nigeria has an SDG coordination office: OSSAP-SDGs; federal government includes SDG-supporting programs in the budget.

### II.A Human capital — Education: evidence and estimates
- Outcomes and context:
  - Adult literacy: "55 percent in 2003 to 62 percent in 2018."
  - Average years of schooling increased by "2 years" between 2005 and 2015.
  - Over half of population is school-age compared with "36 percent in emerging economies and 25 percent in the advanced economies."
  - "Half of the school-age population—nearly 50 million Nigerian children and youth—are not receiving any formal education."
  - Only "20 percent of pupils that complete primary school can read a three-sentence passage fluently or with little help," compared with "50 percent in Ghana and 80 percent [in] Rwanda and Tanzania."
  - Nigeria ranks "in 39th place" among 44 African economies in harmonized test scores.
  - Lower quality is equivalent to losing "about 4 years of schooling."
- Inputs and financing:
  - Combined public and private education spending: "1.6 percent of GDP."
  - Teacher performance: most math and language teachers fail to achieve "80 percent in tests aimed at ten-year-old pupils."
- Additional spending required for high performance in education:
  - Estimated increase in total spending needed: "7.7 percentage points of GDP by 2030."
  - Enrollment target: raise enrollment to "80 percent of the school-age population by 2030" (universal coverage for two years of pre-primary, full primary and secondary education, and two years of tertiary education).
  - Student–teacher ratio target: match "student per teacher ratio of 16.5 in good performing countries" from current public school average of "33 students per teacher."
  - Teacher wage policy: wages must increase at a pace faster than GDP to attract qualified teachers.
  - Lower‑cost phased option: expanding enrollment could be achieved at "some 1 percentage points of GDP" as a more modest approach.

### Education — priorities, targets, and estimated fiscal costs (detailed)
- Target enrollment assumptions:
  - Full enrollment in 2030 for at least two years of preprimary and tertiary education and 12 years of primary and secondary education.
  - Target enrollment rates: 50 percent for preprimary and tertiary, and 100 percent for primary and secondary.
  - Overall targeted enrollment rate: 80 percent (16 years/20 years).
- Estimated additional spending (assuming current level of spending per student):
  - Higher enrollment: additional spending of 1 percentage points of GDP.
  - School infrastructure (capital): additional 0.7 percentage points of GDP.
  - Smaller class sizes: additional 2.3 percentage points of GDP.
  - Higher wages to attract qualified teachers: additional 3.9 percentage points of GDP.
- Assumed timeline: full enrollment by 2030.
- Selected table figures (as presented): Education spending (percent of GDP): 4.7, 5.4, 7.2, 1.6, 9.3; Spending per student (USD 2019): 203.1, 232.6, 674.2, 140.2, 520.1; GDP per capita (USD) for Nigeria: 4,140.7.
- Equity and information gaps:
  - Gender: increasing the share of women with secondary education by one percentage point will boost annual per capita growth by 0.3 percentage points.
  - Geographic disparities: example—78 percent of Southwest children can read part or whole sentences, only 17 percent of Northeast children can do so.
  - Data shortfalls: little is known about spending by government level or private expenditure at school level; priority to collect spending data linking it to outcomes.

### Health — outcomes, spending, efficiency, and resource needs
- Outcomes and current weaknesses:
  - Under-five mortality: dropped from 211 to 120 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990–2018, a 60 percent reduction.
  - Maternal mortality: declined by 24 percent from 1990 to 2018.
  - Infant mortality: described as the third highest in the world.
  - Healthy life expectancy: 49 years.
  - Out-of-pocket health expenditures: about 70 percent of health expenditures.
  - WHO health system ranking: 187 among 190 countries.
- Health spending and efficiency:
  - Total health spending: 4 percent of GDP.
  - Despite higher per capita PPP spending than other low-income economies, outcomes remain poor; addressing inefficiencies is a priority.
- Additional resources needed for high performance:
  - To replicate high-performer input/output mix, Nigeria would need to increase health expenditure by 4.3 percentage points of GDP between now and 2030.
- Specific inputs to raise:
  - Doctors per 1,000 population: from 0.2 to 0.4.
  - Other health personnel per 1,000 population: from 2 to 4.
  - Doctors’ wages noted relative level: "At 6 times GDP per capita, doctors’ wages are low in GDP per capita terms relative to strong performers."
- Governance and financing challenges:
  - Combined government health spending (federal, state, local): 0.6 percent of GDP.
  - Over 85 percent of total health expenditures come from the private sector; median private share for strong performers: 48 percent.
  - Catastrophic health events: an additional 3.5 percent of the population falls into poverty every year due to health shocks.
- Policy recommendations:
  - Address inefficiencies to deliver outcomes commensurate with current spending.
  - Increase resources in the medium term, raise the share of health care workers, rebalance financing toward government-funded primary care, strengthen primary health care network, expand universal health care insurance mechanisms (e.g., Basic Health Care Provision Fund), and improve governance and financial management across government layers.

### Electricity and physical capital — access, capacity, and investment needs
- Recent progress and capacity metrics:
  - Electricity access: increased from 40 percent in 2015 to 54 percent in 2020.
  - Installed available generation capacity connected to the grid: 4,000MW to 7,500MW.
  - Nominal transmission capacity: 5,000MW to 8,000MW.
  - Dispatch capacity: 3,500MW to 5,500MW.
  - REA connected about 100,000 households, impacting 500,000 people and providing more than 5,000 jobs.
  - Total system collapses in 2019: reduced to 10 (down from an average of 15 per year in 2010–18).
- Current supply chain challenges and metrics:
  - Only 7,500MW of the 13,500MW on-grid installed generation capacity is functional.
  - Transmission dispatching is 50 percent below nominal capacity — less than 4,000MW is end-to-end operational through the grid.
  - About 10 percent of on-grid electricity demand is unmet.
  - Off-grid alternatives account for 52 percent of electricity consumption.
  - Electricity consumption per capita in 2019: 348kWh (calculated as 151.9kWh on-grid consumption × 1.1 / 0.48).
- Projected needs and investment estimates (2018–2030):
  - Population projected to increase from 196 to 263 million between 2018 and 2030.
  - Electricity consumption per capita estimated to grow from 348 kWh in 2019 to 635 kWh by 2030.
  - Additional consumption (TWh): 137.
  - Unit cost including generation, transmission, and distribution: 2,184 (US$ per kW).
  - Total investment required (US$ billion): 49 (B x C).
  - Total annual investment plus depreciation (percent of annual GDP): 1.0.
- Short-term priorities and capacity targets:
  - Rehabilitating existing infrastructure can boost end-to-end capacity to 7,000 MW.
  - Solving network bottlenecks could bring systems operational capacity to 11,000 MW.
  - Plan includes upgrades and expansions to 25,000 MW.
  - Vision 30-30-30: boost capacity to over 30GW with a share from renewable sources of 30 percent by 2030.
- Energy matrix targets (2016 / 2030 MW and percent):
  - Total 2016: 4,376 MW (100 percent); Total 2030 target: 32,000 MW (100 percent).
  - Gas: 3,121 / 71 percent ; 13,000 / 41 percent
  - Coal: 0 / 0 percent ; 3,200 / 10 percent
  - Nuclear: 0 / 0 percent ; 2,000 / 6 percent
  - Sub-total conventional: 3,121 / 71 percent ; 18,200 / 57 percent
  - Large Hydro Plants: 1,200 / 27 percent ; 4,700 / 15 percent
  - Small Hydro Power: 451 / 1 percent ; 1,200 / 4 percent
  - Solar PV: 0 / 0 percent ; 5,000 / 16 percent
  - Solar Thermal: 0 / 0 percent ; 1,000 / 3 percent
  - Wind Power: 100 / 8 percent ; 800 / 3 percent
  - Biomass: 0 / 0 percent ; 1,100 / 3 percent
  - Sub-total w LHP: 1,255 / 29 percent ; 13,800 / 43 percent
  - Sub-total w/o LHP: 551 / 1 percent ; 9,100 / 28 percent
- Mini-grids and off-grid solutions:
  - Mini-grids are complementary and scalable for remote communities; REA defining terms and standards for 250 new mini-grids with World Bank and European Union financing.
- Equity and household energy costs:
  - Low-income households regularly dedicate 9 percent of their expenditures to energy (e.g., charging cell phones in kiosks with a kerosene generator).
  - Off-grid households spend a significant share of income on candles and fuel lamps.
- Aggregate investment plan: US$49 billion in 2020–30 to expand installed capacity by 22.4GW at stated unit cost.

### Roads — current state, investment needs, and governance
- Road network: 195,000 km; large proportion in unsatisfactory condition due to insufficient maintenance.
- Road ownership: about 16 percent federal, 16 percent state, and 68 percent rural (World Bank estimate).
- Road density: 22 km per 100 square km (Nigeria) versus 208 km per 100 square km (India).
- Rural access: Only 26 percent of Nigeria’s rural population have access to all-weather roads within two kilometers.
- Investment to extend road network by nearly 179 thousand km:
  - Average cost per kilometer: US$550,000.
  - A*B = Total investment: US$99 billion over 2020–30.
  - Total annual investment plus depreciation (percent of GDP): 2.0.
  - Additional refurbishing and modernizing existing roads: at least up to 0.5 percent of GDP per year.
- Governance recommendations:
  - Private partnerships require strong institutional regulatory setup and scrutiny to ensure value for money; road-for-taxes programs could bypass budgetary scrutiny.
  - Federal government could lead national network planning, increase maintenance, and enhance monitoring and accountability of projects.
- Main road statistics excerpt:
  - 2019 additional roads (thousand km): 179
  - Unit cost (US$/km): 550,000
  - A*B = Total investment (US$ billion): 99
  - Total annual investment plus depreciation (percent of GDP): 2.0

### Water and sanitation — progress, gaps, targets, and costs
- Progress (2010–2018):
  - Access to basic sanitation: 32 to 42 percent.
  - Access to basic water: urban 79 to 87 percent; rural 46 to 60 percent.
- Remaining challenges:
  - 47 million people still practice open defecation.
  - One third of the population do not have access to basic water services.
  - Only 3.7 percent have access to safely managed water services.
  - Regional disparities: Anambra and Imo above 50 percent for basic water and sanitation; Borno and Ebonyi below 10 percent.
- Government targets and campaign:
  - Authorities committed to end open defecation by 2025.
  - “Clean Nigeria: Use the Toilet” campaign launched in 2019; campaign identifies resources needed (US$2.7 billion) and responsibility split: 75 percent households, 25 percent government and PPPs, for construction of 20 million toilets.
  - WHO‑recommended gradual approach: reduce distance to basic water and sanitation services from 30 to 15 minutes roundtrip.
- Cost estimates to achieve universal safely managed access (2020–30):
  - Meeting basic water and sanitation needs requires an aggregate of US$23 billion over 2020–30, i.e., 0.55 percent of annual GDP including depreciation.
  - Providing safely-managed water and sanitation will require an additional 2.5 percent of annual GDP, including depreciation.
- Economic and equity impacts:
  - Annual losses from poor sanitation (time, premature death, productivity losses, healthcare) equivalent to 1.3 percent of GDP per year.
  - Ending open defecation could cut time spent finding a private location to defecate (estimated at about 2.5 days a year).
- "Clean Nigeria: Use the Toilet" campaign budget excerpt:
  - Urban households: Number of toilets required (thousand) 7,500 ; Unit cost (US$) 150 ; Total cost (US$ million) 1,125
  - Rural households: Number of toilets required (thousand) 12,500 ; Unit cost (US$) 70 ; Total cost (US$ million) 875
  - Total (campaign): Total cost (US$ million) 20,043 ; Number of toilets required (thousand) 10,920
- Table 7 summary (selected lines):
  - Total population (2019): 196 (Rural) ; 97 (Urban)
  - Total target population (million): 255
  - Population unserved in 2019 (million): 188
  - Population growth 2019-2030 (million): 67
  - Cost (per capita, US$): Rural 15.379 ; Urban 79
  - Total cost (US$ million) for combined programs: 23,563 ; Annual cost (US$ million): 2,092 ; Total cost (percent of 2030 GDP): 3.98 ; Annual cost (percent of annual GDP): 0.53

### SDG costing methodology — education and health appendices (key parameters)
- Education (Appendix I) — identity used: E = w * STR * e * SAP / 100 * E_oth (as presented in source).
  - Key parameters (latest estimates for 2017–18):
    - STR (student–teacher ratio): 25.9
    - Number of students: 48,403,623
    - Number of teachers: 1,866,870
    - E_oth: 0.25
    - Personnel wage bill (Nairas): 1,482,412,193,703
    - Teachers wage bill (Nairas): 1,241,520,212,226
    - SAP [population aged 2–21] / [total population]: 0.51 (Population aged 2–21: 97,331,794; Total population: 190,873,244)
    - e [enrollment rate]: 0.50
    - E (education spending {public + private} / GDP): 1.6
    - Public spending (Nairas): 1,153,050,161,511
    - Private spending (Nairas): 691,830,096,907
    - Private education proportion of total expenditures: 0.375
    - w (level of teacher wages as ratio to GDP per capita used in calibration): 1.2
- Health (Appendix II) — identity: 퐸 ൌ10푤 퐷൅0.5푀 100െ퐸 ௢௧௛ (as presented in source).
  - Key computed values (Table AII.1 — selected values):
    - D (1000 * [number of doctors] / [population]): 0.21
    - Number of doctors: 39,388
    - Population (UN 2019): 186,725,399
    - M (1000 * [number of registered other medical staff] / [population]): 1.97
    - Number of registered other medical staff: 367,020
    - Eoth (share of spending besides health workers’ wage bill): 0.82
    - Personnel wage bill (Nairas): 819,857,526,048
    - Health care professionals wage bill (Nairas): 713,276,047,662
    - Total spending (Nairas): 3,935,300,000,000
    - E (In health: {total spending} / GDP): 3.84
    - W (calculated level of doctors’ wages as % of GDP per capita satisfying identity): 5.88
  - Implementation notes:
    - Latest baseline estimates from 2016–17.
    - Assumptions: personnel wage bill equals 0.22* [current health spending]; 87 percent of personnel wage bill goes to health care professionals’ wage bill.

*Source: IMF staff calculations and the mission report "PREFACE", "EXECUTIVE SUMMARY", and sectoral sections from the provided content unit.*

### PREFACE _____________________________________________________________________________________ 6

### PREFACE _____________________________________________________________________________________ 6

### Preface and Mission Details
- A technical mission visited Abuja, Nigeria during January 29–February 11, 2020 to assess spending associated with making substantial progress along the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
- Mission team: Mauricio Soto (head), Mariano Moszoro, Julieth Pico (all FAD).
- Financing: European Union under the EU-IMF Public Financial Management Partnership Program (PFM-PP).
- Hosts and key government contacts:
  - D.M. Dauda (Secretary of Programme, OSSAP-SDGs)
  - Dr. Bala Yusuf Yunusa (Senior Technical Advisor, OSSAP-SDGs)
  - Meetings with: Zainab Shamsuna Ahmed (Minister of Finance, Budget, and National Planning); Prince Clem Ikanade Agba (Minister of State for Budget and National Planning); Suleiman H, Adamu (Minister of Water Resources); Didi Walson-Jack (Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Power); Emmanuel Meribole (Director, Health Planning, Research and Statistics, Ministry of Health); Babangida Hussaini (Director of Special Projects, Federal Ministry of Works and Housing); Adeoye E.O. (Acting Director, Department of Educational Planning, Research, and Development, Federal Ministry of Education).
- Development partner engagements included staff from the European Union Delegation, UNDP, World Bank, WHO, African Development Bank, and others.
- Coordination support acknowledged from Chukwuemeka Olanrewaju Ogbuehi (Ministry of Finance), Ogunleye Femi (OSSAP-SDG), Zainab Mangga (IMF Resident Representative Office); logistics support from Laraba Bonet (IMF Resident Representative Office).
- The mission occurred before COVID-19 became a global pandemic; the report does not reflect the impact from COVID-19 and focuses on medium-term challenges and additional spending needed to ensure substantial progress along the SDGs by 2030.

### Executive Summary — High-level Findings
- Total estimated additional spending required for substantial SDG progress by 2030: 18 percentage points of GDP (reported as "18 percentage points of GDP by 2030").
- Comparison with peers: This level is higher than the average low-income and developing countries; relative differences by sector noted.
- Sectoral additional annual spending estimates (percentage points of GDP by 2030):
  - Education: 7.7 percentage points of GDP
  - Health: 4 percentage points of GDP (reported as "4 percentage points of GDP" in text; the figure elsewhere lists 4.3)
  - Electricity: 1 percent of GDP
  - Roads: 2 percent of GDP
  - Water and sanitation: 3.1 percent of GDP (reported as "3.1" in the figure)
  - Total: 18.1 percent of GDP (figure lists "18.1"; executive text states "18 percentage points of GDP")
- Sector-level summaries and policy emphases:
  - Education: increase access and improve quality; pragmatic approaches to expansion; expanding enrollment could cost "some 1 percentage points of GDP" as a more modest option.
  - Health: tackle inefficiencies; rebalance toward primary care with public support; additional annual spending of "4 percentage points of GDP" to expand health workers, improve infrastructure, and improve outcomes.
  - Electricity: rehabilitate and expand power infrastructure; annual investments of "1 percent of GDP" needed; rehabilitating existing capacity and mini-grids recommended to reach remote communities.
  - Roads: expand road network; increasing rural access from "26 to 75 percent" of the rural population will cost "2 percent of annual GDP"; prioritize projects with high economic and social returns and involve private sector with strong oversight.
  - Water and sanitation: prioritize access for the most vulnerable; ending open defecation and expanding basic services achievable at "0.6 percent of GDP" annually; providing safely managed water and sanitation for all will cost an additional "2.5 percent of annual GDP" in the medium-term.
- Governance and coordination:
  - Progress requires a whole-of-government approach with strong coordination between federal, state, and local administrations; OSSAP-SDGs is leading federal coordination.
  - Emphasis on government leadership, supported by development partners and the private sector.
  - Priority to collect and analyze data to inform best practices and better target scarce resources.

### Executive Summary — Selected Key Statistics Cited
- "50 percent of the population in school-age" (education demographic)
- Healthy life expectancy: "49 years"
- Electricity connection: "54 percent of the population is connected to an electricity grid that collapses about once a month"
- Access to safely managed water: "less than 4 percent of the population"
- Population projection: population projected to grow by "30 percent—about 60 million people—between now and 2030"
- Current combined public and private education spending: "1.6 percent of GDP"
- Additional spending aggregate shown as "18.1" percent of GDP in figure (Nigeria total) and "15.4" for LIDC average in the figure comparisons.

### Comparison with Low-Income and Developing Countries (LIDC)
- The mission notes Nigeria's additional spending needs are higher in education and water and sanitation and lower in health, electricity, and roads relative to LIDC averages.
- Figure and chart annotations report Nigeria at "18.1" percent of GDP additional spending versus LIDC "15.4" percent of GDP in the figure provided.

### Caveat
- The report focuses on medium-term challenges and additional spending needed to ensure substantial progress along the SDGs by 2030 and does not incorporate the economic impact of COVID-19.

### Methodological notes referenced
- Additional spending for education and health reported as percentage points of GDP corresponds to the difference between the share of GDP consistent with high performance in 2030 and the current level of spending as a share of GDP.
- For physical capital, additional spending in percentage points of GDP corresponds to the annualized spending required to close infrastructure gaps between 2019 and 2030.
- Costing follows the methodology developed by Gaspar and others (2019), IMF Staff Discussion Note "Fiscal Policy and Development: Human, Social, and Physical Investment for the SDGs."

---

### I. INTRODUCTION — Key Diagnostic Points
- Nigeria faces serious development gaps:
  - "Half of the student-age population is enrolled in schools."
  - Healthy life expectancy is "49 years," placing Nigeria among the bottom six countries in the world.
  - "54 percent of the population is connected to an electricity grid that collapses about once a month."
  - Roads are in precarious condition.
  - "Less than 4 percent of the population have access to safely managed water."
- Human and physical capital indicators are worse than countries with lower GDP per capita.
- Nigeria has embraced the SDGs Agenda; the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan 2017–2020 gives prominence to economic, social and environmental issues.
- Nigeria established a special office within the presidency (OSSAP-SDGs) responsible for coordination, planning, communications, and advocacy around the SDGs.
- The federal government has included specific programs to support the SDGs in the budget and recognizes an all-government approach is required.

### II. HUMAN CAPITAL — Education (Section II.A) — Evidence and Estimates
- Progress and outcomes:
  - Adult literacy increased from "55 percent in 2003 to 62 percent in 2018."
  - Average years of schooling increased by "2 years" between 2005 and 2015 (Figure reference).
  - Over half of the population is school-age compared with "36 percent in emerging economies and 25 percent in the advanced economies."
  - "Half of the school-age population—nearly 50 million Nigerian children and youth—are not receiving any formal education."
  - Quality measures: only "20 percent of pupils that complete primary school can read a three-sentence passage fluently or with little help," compared with "50 percent in Ghana and 80 percent [in] Rwanda and Tanzania."
  - Among 44 economies in Africa, Nigeria is "in 39th place in harmonized tests scores."
  - Lower quality is equivalent to losing "about 4 years of schooling."
- Inputs and financing:
  - Combined public and private education spending: "1.6 percent of GDP."
  - School infrastructure is inadequate; teacher performance cited (most math and language teachers fail to achieve "80 percent in tests aimed at ten-year-old pupils").
  - Nigeria’s SDG4 index score falls far below the median for low-income and developing economies.
- Additional spending required for high performance in education SDG:
  - Estimated increase in total spending in education needed: "7.7 percentage points of GDP by 2030."
  - Drivers of additional spending: raise enrollment, increase the share of capital in spending, reduce class size, raise teacher wages.
  - Enrollment target: raise enrollment to "80 percent of the school-age population by 2030" (universal coverage for two years of pre-primary, full primary and secondary education, and two years of tertiary education).
  - Student-teacher ratio target: match "student per teacher ratio of 16.5 in good performing countries" from current public school average of "33 students per teacher."
  - Teacher compensation: must increase at a pace faster than GDP to attract qualified teachers.
  - A pragmatic, phased approach is recommended depending on resource availability; expanding enrollment could be achieved at "some 1 percentage points of GDP" as a lower-cost alternative.

*Source: IMF staff calculations and the mission report "PREFACE" and "EXECUTIVE SUMMARY" sections from the provided content unit.*

### 10.      A gradual and strategic approach should be considered given the relatively large

### 10.      A gradual and strategic approach should be considered given the relatively large additional spending

### Education: priorities, targets, and estimated fiscal costs
- Priority: increase enrollment rates.
- Target enrollment assumptions:
  - Full enrollment in 2030 for at least two years of preprimary and tertiary education and 12 years of primary and secondary education.
  - Target enrollment rates: 50 percent for preprimary and tertiary, and 100 percent for primary and secondary.
  - Overall targeted enrollment rate: 80 percent (16 years/20 years).
- Estimated additional spending (assuming the current level of spending per student):
  - Higher enrollment: additional spending of 1 percentage points of GDP.
  - Larger commitments to school infrastructure (capital): additional 0.7 percentage points of GDP.
  - Smaller class sizes: additional 2.3 percentage points of GDP.
  - Higher wages to attract qualified teachers: additional 3.9 percentage points of GDP.
- Assumed timeline: full enrollment by 2030.
- Current results and context (selected figures as presented):
  - Education spending (percent of GDP): 4.7, 5.4, 7.2, 1.6, 9.3 (as shown in source table).
  - Spending per student (USD 2019): 203.1, 232.6, 674.2, 140.2, 520.1 (as shown in source table).
  - GDP per capita (USD) for Nigeria: 4,140.7 (table header context).
- Policy implications and recommendations:
  - Consider a gradual and strategic approach given the relatively large additional spending requirements.
  - Increase enrollment while linking any expansion to spending per student and infrastructure commitments.
  - Prioritize measures that target inequities to improve medium-term growth and reduce private spending burdens.

### Education: equity and information gaps
- Key disparities and impacts:
  - Gender: disparities remain between education received by girls and boys; increasing the share of women with secondary education by one percentage point will boost annual per capita growth by 0.3 percentage points.
  - Geography: significant regional disparities driven by security, economic barriers, and low trust in formal education in some areas; example: 78 percent of Southwest children can read part or whole sentences, only 17 percent of Northeast children can do so.
  - Public vs private: documented differences in class size, teacher quality, adequacy of facilities, curriculum practices, and stability of academic activities.
- Implications:
  - Narrowing gaps, particularly in primary and secondary education, could improve opportunities for the most vulnerable and reduce relatively high private spending in education in the medium term.
- Information system shortcomings:
  - Detailed counts of students, teachers, and schools are available, but:
    - Little is known about spending on education by different government levels or private expenditure on education.
    - Much less is known at the school level.
  - Recommended priority: collect spending data linking it to provision of education services (for example, spending per capita and outcomes by region) to inform best practices and better target scarce resources.

*Source: IMF staff calculations and IMF country report excerpts.*

### Health: outcomes, spending, and resource needs
- Progress and current weaknesses:
  - Under-five mortality: dropped from 211 to 120 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990–2018, a 60 percent reduction.
  - Maternal mortality: declined by 24 percent from 1990 to 2018.
  - Infant mortality: described as the third highest in the world.
  - Healthy life expectancy: 49 years.
  - Out-of-pocket health expenditures: about 70 percent of health expenditures.
  - WHO health system ranking: 187 among 190 countries.
- Health spending and efficiency:
  - Total health spending: 4 percent of GDP (contextual comparison to peers).
  - Nigeria spends more on health per person in PPP dollars than other low-income economies, yet outcomes remain poor.
  - Conclusion: addressing inefficiencies should remain a priority given the current resource envelope.
- Estimated additional resources needed for high performance:
  - To replicate the input/output mix of good performers, Nigeria would need to increase health expenditure by 4.3 percentage points of GDP between now and 2030.
- Specific inputs to raise:
  - Doctors per 1,000 population: from 0.2 to 0.4.
  - Other health personnel per 1,000 population: from 2 to 4.
  - Wages: doctors’ wages are low in GDP per capita terms (noted as "At 6 times GDP per capita, doctors’ wages are low in GDP per capita terms relative to strong performers").
- Governance and financing challenges:
  - Combined government health spending (federal, state, local): 0.6 percent of GDP.
  - Over 85 percent of total health expenditures come from the private sector, majority being out-of-pocket payments.
  - Median private share for strong performers: 48 percent (contrast).
  - Catastrophic health events: an additional 3.5 percent of the population falls into poverty every year due to health shocks.
- Policy recommendations:
  - Address inefficiencies to deliver outcomes commensurate with current spending.
  - Increase resources in the medium term, including raising the share of health care workers in the population.
  - Rebalance financing with a larger government role in financing primary care and reducing reliance on out-of-pocket payments.
  - Strengthen the primary health care network to expand affordable access for the most vulnerable.
  - Increase political and budgetary commitments to universal health care insurance mechanisms (e.g., Basic Health Care Provision Fund) to expand coverage beyond formal workers.
  - Improve governance and financial management across layers of government and coordinate public and private efforts under the SDG framework.

*Source: IMF staff estimates and analysis presented in the IMF country report.*

### Electricity and physical capital: access, capacity, and investment needs
- Recent access and capacity improvements:
  - Share of population with electricity access increased from 40 percent in 2015 to 54 percent in 2020.
  - Installed available generation capacity connected to the grid increased from 4,000MW to 7,500MW.
  - Nominal transmission capacity increased from 5,000MW to 8,000MW.
  - Dispatch capacity increased from 3,500MW to 5,500MW.
  - REA connected about 100,000 households, impacting 500,000 people and providing more than 5,000 jobs.
  - Total system collapses in 2019: reduced to 10 (down from an average of 15 per year in 2010–18).
- Current supply chain challenges and consumption metrics:
  - Only 7,500MW of the 13,500MW on-grid installed generation capacity is functional.
  - Transmission dispatching is 50 percent below nominal capacity — less than 4,000MW is end-to-end operational through the grid.
  - About 10 percent of on-grid electricity demand is unmet.
  - Off-grid alternatives account for 52 percent of electricity consumption.
  - Electricity consumption per capita in 2019: 348kWh (calculated as 151.9kWh on-grid consumption × 1.1 / 0.48).
- Projected needs and investment estimates (2018–2030 context):
  - Population projected to increase from 196 to 263 million between 2018 and 2030.
  - Electricity consumption per capita estimated to grow from 348 kWh in 2019 to 635 kWh by 2030 driven by increased access.
  - Additional consumption (TWh): 137 (Table 3, panel A).
  - Additional capacity required (GW): calculation based on A ÷ (hours per year × 70 percent factor) (Table 3, panel B).
  - Unit cost including generation, transmission, and distribution: 2,184 (US$ per kW).
  - Total investment required (US$ billion): 49 (B x C).
  - Total annual investment plus depreciation (percent of annual GDP): 1.0.
- Policy implications:
  - Large investments are needed in the power sector to increase access and keep up with population growth.
  - Address transmission bottlenecks and invest across generation, transmission, and distribution to reduce reliance on costly off-grid alternatives and increase on-grid consumption per capita.
  - Plan for aggregate investment of US$49 billion in 2020–30 (equivalent to 1.0 percent of annual GDP including replacement costs) to expand installed capacity by 22.4GW at the stated unit cost.

*Source: IMF staff calculations and selected data from the IMF country report.*

### 22.      In the short term, efforts to rehabilitate and upgrade generation and transmission

### 1ngaea2020002 - 22.      In the short term, efforts to rehabilitate and upgrade generation and transmission

### Electricity: short-term priorities and capacity targets
- Priority: rehabilitate and upgrade generation and transmission capacity.
- Transmission Company of Nigeria aims to stabilize the grid, coordinate procurement and investment, and close the gap between demand and supply.
- Federal Government of Nigeria and Siemens signed an implementation agreement for the Nigeria Electrification Roadmap.
- Capacity targets and steps:
  - Rehabilitating existing infrastructure can boost end-to-end capacity to 7,000 MW.
  - Solving network bottlenecks will enable full use of existing generation and distribution capacities, bringing the systems operational capacity to 11,000 MW.
  - Plan includes upgrades and expansions in generation, transmission, and distribution to 25,000 MW.
- Assessment: Rehabilitating and upgrading existing capacity could be a cost-efficient way of meeting part of the required investment to meet electricity demand.

### Renewable energy and SE4ALL / Vision 30-30-30
- SE4ALL program aims to increase renewable sources in the energy mix.
- Nigeria is among the top 50 CO2 emitters.
- Vision 30-30-30: boosting capacity to over 30GW with a share from renewable sources of 30 percent by 2030.
- Table 4 (energy matrix) figures (2016 and 2030):
  - Total 2016: 4,376 MW (100 percent).
  - Total 2030 target: 32,000 MW (100 percent).
  - Breakdown 2016 / 2030 (Source / MW / Percent):
    - Gas: 3,121 / 71 percent ; 13,000 / 41 percent
    - Coal: 0 / 0 percent ; 3,200 / 10 percent
    - Nuclear: 0 / 0 percent ; 2,000 / 6 percent
    - Sub-total conventional: 3,121 / 71 percent ; 18,200 / 57 percent
    - Large Hydro Plants: 1,200 / 27 percent ; 4,700 / 15 percent
    - Small Hydro Power: 451 / 1 percent ; 1,200 / 4 percent
    - Solar PV: 0 / 0 percent ; 5,000 / 16 percent
    - Solar Thermal: 0 / 0 percent ; 1,000 / 3 percent
    - Wind Power: 100 / 8 percent ; 800 / 3 percent
    - Biomass: 0 / 0 percent ; 1,100 / 3 percent
    - Sub-total w LHP: 1,255 / 29 percent ; 13,800 / 43 percent
    - Sub-total w/o LHP: 551 / 1 percent ; 9,100 / 28 percent

### Mini-grids and off-grid solutions
- Mini-grids can play an important complementary role given excellent conditions for sustainable solar energy generation.
- Mini-grids can quickly mobilize scalable capacity and provide electricity to remote and vulnerable communities.
- Rural Electrification Agency (REA) is defining terms and standards for 250 new mini-grids; World Bank and European Union provide financing.

### Equity implications and household energy costs
- Reforming the electricity sector can have a large impact on equitable access; increasing affordable electricity access benefits the most vulnerable.
- Off-grid electricity provision imposes direct costs on final consumers:
  - Low-income households regularly dedicate 9 percent of their expenditures to energy (e.g., charging cell phones in kiosks with a kerosene generator for a fee).
  - A significant share of income is spent by off-grid households on candles and fuel lamps.

### Roads: current state, investment needs, and governance
- Nigeria’s road network: 195,000 km; large proportion in unsatisfactory condition due to insufficient maintenance.
- World Bank estimates: about 16 percent of the roads are federal, 16 percent state, and 68 percent rural.
- Road density: 22 km per 100 square km (Nigeria) versus 208 km per 100 square km (India).
- Rural access: Only 26 percent of Nigeria’s rural population have access to all-weather roads within two kilometers.
- Example Rural Access Index (2014): Imo State 50 percent; Adamawa State 12.8 percent.
- Investment estimates to extend road network by nearly 180 thousand kilometers:
  - Average cost per kilometer: US$550,000.
  - A*B = Total investment: US$99 billion over 2020–30.
  - Total annual investment plus depreciation: 2.0 percent of GDP.
  - Additional refurbishing and modernizing existing roads: at least up to 0.5 percent of GDP per year.
- Governance and policy recommendations:
  - Partnerships with the private sector need scrutiny to ensure value for money; private participation can exacerbate governance problems without strong institutional regulatory setup (e.g., road-for-taxes programs could bypass budgetary scrutiny).
  - Scope for greater coordination: federal government could lead in outlining a national network, increase maintenance of existing road assets, and enhance monitoring and accountability of ongoing projects.
- Main Road Statistics (excerpt):
  - 2019 additional roads (thousand km): 179
  - Unit cost (US$/km): 550,000
  - A*B = Total investment (US$ billion): 99
  - Total annual investment plus depreciation (percent of GDP): 2.0

### Water and sanitation: progress, gaps, targets, and costs
- Progress (2010–2018):
  - Access to basic sanitation increased from 32 to 42 percent of the population.
  - Access to basic water increased from 79 to 87 percent of the urban population and from 46 to 60 percent of the rural population.
- Remaining challenges:
  - 47 million people still practice open defecation.
  - One third of the population do not have access to basic water services.
  - Only 3.7 percent have access to safely managed water services.
  - Access disparities across regions and wealth quintiles; examples: Anambra and Imo above 50 percent for basic water and sanitation; Borno and Ebonyi below 10 percent.
- Government targets and program:
  - Authorities committed to end open defecation by 2025.
  - “Clean Nigeria: Use the Toilet” campaign launched in 2019.
  - Campaign identifies location, resources needed (US$2.7 billion), and responsibility split: 75 percent households, 25 percent government and PPPs, for construction of 20 million toilets.
  - Gradual approach following WHO recommendations: reduce the distance to basic water and sanitation services from 30 to 15 minutes roundtrip.
- Cost estimates to achieve universal safely managed access (2020–30):
  - Meeting basic water and sanitation needs will require an aggregate of US$23 billion over 2020–30, i.e., 0.55 percent of annual GDP including depreciation.
  - Providing safely-managed water and sanitation will require an additional 2.5 percent of annual GDP, including depreciation.
- Economic benefits and equity:
  - Annual losses from poor sanitation (time, premature death, productivity losses, healthcare) are equivalent to 1.3 percent of GDP per year.
  - Ending open defecation could cut time spent finding a private location to defecate (estimated at about 2.5 days a year).
- Institutional and capacity constraints:
  - Large amounts of resources and skilled labor required; these needs are likely to create business and employment opportunities, particularly in rural areas.
- “Clean Nigeria: Use the Toilet” campaign budget table (excerpt):
  - Urban households: Number of toilets required (thousand) 7,500 ; Unit cost (US$) 150 ; Total cost (US$ million) 1,125
  - Rural households: Number of toilets required (thousand) 12,500 ; Unit cost (US$) 70 ; Total cost (US$ million) 875
  - Total (campaign): Total cost (US$ million) 20,043 ; Number of toilets required (thousand) 10,920 ; Responsibility split noted in table.
- Table 7 summary (additional investment in water and sanitation, selected lines):
  - Total population (2019): 196 (Rural) ; 97 (Urban)
  - Total target population (million): 255
  - Population unserved in 2019 (million): 188
  - Population growth 2019-2030 (million): 67
  - Cost (per capita, US$): Rural 15.379 ; Urban 79 ; Other cells populated in source table.
  - Total cost (US$ million) for combined programs: 23,563 ; Annual cost (US$ million): 2,092 ; Total cost (percent of 2030 GDP): 3.98 ; Annual cost (percent of annual GDP): 0.53
  - Note: methodology follows Hutton and Varughese (2016) and accounts for GDP growth and depreciation.

### Education (Appendix I): SDG costing methodology and key parameters
- SDG costing estimate for education: additional spending needed to perform well in the education SDG = difference between spending needed in 2030 and spending level today.
- Identity used: E = w * STR * e * SAP / 100 * E_oth  (as presented in source).
- Key parameters and values (latest estimates available for 2017–18):
  - STR (student–teacher ratio): 25.9
  - Number of students: 48,403,623
  - Number of teachers: 1,866,870
  - E_oth (education spending besides teacher wage bill as share of total spending): 0.25
  - Personnel wage bill (in Nairas): 1,482,412,193,703 (assumption that 90% of recurrent expenditures goes to personnel wage bill)
  - Teachers wage bill (in Nairas): 1,241,520,212,226
  - SAP [population aged 2–21] / [total population]: 0.51
    - Population aged 2–21 (UN 2019): 97,331,794
    - Total population (UN 2019): 190,873,244
  - e [enrollment rate]: 0.50
  - E (education spending {public + private} / GDP): 1.6
  - Public spending (In Nairas): 1,153,050,161,511 (Central Bank of Nigeria, 2017 Annual Report)
  - Private spending (In Nairas): 691,830,096,907
  - Private education proportion of total expenditures: 0.375
  - w (level of teacher wages as ratio to GDP per capita used in calibration): 1.2

*Source: IMF staff calculations; Federal Ministry of Water Resources; World Bank and other sources as cited in the document.*

### Appendix II. Health Care

### Appendix II. Health Care

### Purpose and definition of the SDG health costing
- The SDG costing estimate for health is expressed as the additional spending needed to perform well in the health SDG, i.e., the difference between the spending needed in 2030 and the spending level today.
- Both today’s health expenditures (as a percent of GDP), E2018, and the levels needed by 2030, E2030, are expressed by the identity reported in the source:
  - 퐸 ൌ10푤 퐷൅0.5푀 100െ퐸 ௢௧௛

### Method to estimate spending needed in 2030
- The spending needed in 2030 to perform well in the health SDG equals the level of expenditures Nigeria would incur by 2030 given:
  - projected demographics (projected population share of infants and the elderly),
  - matching, by 2030, today’s levels of the health cost-drivers of the high performers among Nigeria’s peers.
- Health cost-drivers include:
  - doctors’ wages,
  - number of doctors per 1,000 population,
  - number of other medical personnel per 1,000 population,
  - health spending besides the health workers’ wage bill.
- The approach matches Nigeria’s 2030 cost drivers to the current levels of high performers (as reflected in the corresponding columns of Table 2 in the source).

### Computation and data sources for variables used in Health SDG costing estimation (Table AII.1 — selected values)
- Identity and variable definitions use w (doctors’ annual wages as a ratio to GDP per capita), D and M (numbers of doctors and other medical personnel per 1,000 population), and Eoth (all spending besides health workers’ wage bill as a percent of total expenditures in health).
- Key computed values and data sources:
  - D (1000 * [number of doctors] / [population]): 0.21
  - Number of doctors (Received from authorities, Nigeria Health Workforce Country Profile 2018): 39,388
  - Population (UN (2019): “World Population Prospects”): 186,725,399
  - M (1000 * [number of registered other medical staff] / [population]): 1.97
  - Number of registered other medical staff (Received from authorities, Nigeria Health Workforce Country Profile 2018): 367,020
  - Eoth (In government health: 〈[total spending] – {[compensation of employees, non‐administrative]〉 / [total spending]): 0.82
  - Personnel wage bill (in Nairas): 0.22* [current health spending] (From National Health Accounts 2010–16) — reported amount: 819,857,526,048
  - Health care professionals wage bill (in Nairas): 0.87* [Personnel wage bill] (assumption that 87% of personnel wage bill goes to health care professionals wage bill): 713,276,047,662
  - Total spending (in Nairas) (Received from authorities, National Health Accounts 2010–16): 3,935,300,000,000
  - E (In health: {total spending} / GDP): 3.84
  - W (Level of doctors’ wages as % of GDP per capita that satisfies 퐸 ൌ10푤 퐷൅0.5푀 100െ퐸 ௢௧௛): 5.88

### Implementation notes and assumptions
- Latest estimates used for Nigeria’s baseline variables are from 2016–17 as reported in the source.
- Assumptions explicitly stated in the data table:
  - Personnel wage bill equals 0.22* [current health spending] based on National Health Accounts 2010–16 and an assumption that spending on non-specified factors follows the same distribution as tracked expenditures.
  - 87 percent of the personnel wage bill goes to health care professionals’ wage bill (assumption).

*Source: Appendix II. Health Care, (data and formulas as provided in the supplied content).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2020/english/1ngaea2020002.pdf_