## 1rwaea2020004 - Section 1 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [1rwaea2020004 - Section 1](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2020/english/1rwaea2020004.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2020/english/1rwaea2020004.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2020/english/1rwaea2020004.pdf.json) --- ### Executive summary and context - COVID-19 has had a severe economic impact on Rwanda through strict domestic containment measures and global spillovers. - Authorities rolled out health and economic measures totaling USD 311 million (3.3 percent of GDP). - The Executive Board approved consecutive requests for emergency financing under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) on April 2 and June 11, 2020, totaling SDR 160.2 million, equivalent to 100 percent of quota. - Total IMF COVID-19 support to Rwanda reached 100 percent of quota, or USD 220.46 million. - All end-December 2019 quantitative targets for the second PCI review were met; performance on reform targets was broadly on track, with one reform delayed. - The fiscal quantitative targets for end-June 2020 became unattainable due to pandemic-related revenue losses and increased spending. - Authorities need to implement measures to ensure a growth-friendly fiscal consolidation to safeguard debt sustainability as soon as the crisis abates and continue ensuring transparency of COVID-19-related financing and spending. ### Recent economic developments - Health and mobility - Rwanda continued to record daily increases in COVID-19 infections; localized outbreaks prompted re-instituted targeted lockdowns in selected zones. - Since approval of the second emergency financing (RCF-2), restrictions on interprovincial travel were lifted and motorcycle taxis permitted to resume passenger transport under health guidelines. - Commercial flights resumed on August 1. - Testing capacity increased with additional laboratories and drive-through testing; recent rises in infections in Kigali led to temporary market closures and bans on public transport between the capital and other districts. - Macro and price developments - Fiscal and external positions deteriorated; economic activity contracted; demand for credit dropped. - Year-on-year headline inflation remained high, mainly driven by an upward revision of public transport fares in May. - The Rwandan franc depreciated against the dollar by 4.9 percent y/y at end-August. - Monetary and fiscal policy - National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) reinstated charges on electronic money transactions on June 22. - BNR kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.5 percent following the August Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. - Central bank issued guidelines on loan restructuring due to COVID-19 in June. - Support to vulnerable businesses under the Economic Recovery Fund started in June, with about 1/5 of COVID-19-related spending under the Economic Recovery Plan spent to date. ### Outlook and risks - Staff baseline projections (as of this update) - Real GDP growth projected at 2 percent in 2020 and 6.3 percent in 2021. - Inflation expected to drop in 2020H2. - Fiscal and external outlook - Fiscal deficit and current accounts projected to worsen but less than originally envisaged under RCF-2, reflecting better-than-anticipated fiscal performance in FY 19/20 and lower-than-anticipated decline in remittances. - Debt and financial sector vulnerabilities expected to remain elevated. - Better-than-anticipated FY 19/20 fiscal balance and significant mobilization of concessional financing from development partners helped close the FY 19/20 fiscal financing gap; external concessional resources expected to contribute to FY 20/21 financing. - Risks - Considerable margin of uncertainty remains around the size of the shock and the speed and shape of domestic and global recovery. - Downside risks remain substantial. ### Program performance under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) - Pre-pandemic performance - All quantitative targets (QTs) for end-December 2019 were met. - Continuous targets were observed. - Reform targets (RTs) were broadly on track; one RT (automation of risk-based verification for tax refund claims) was delayed due to inability to secure technical support ahead of the target date. - The monetary policy consultation clause (MPCC) was observed, with the 12-month average y/y headline inflation within the inner band at end-2019. - End-June 2020 assessment (preliminary) - 4 out of 5 end-June 2020 QTs and at least 1 out of 4 RTs linked to the third PCI review were met. - The debt-creating overall deficit (including grants) breached the program ceiling; domestic revenue mobilization fell short of the program target, with most COVID-19 impact felt through revenue losses. - Total priority spending and the stock of net foreign assets were above program floors. - The limit on the stock of new external debt contracted or guaranteed by nonfinancial public enterprises was respected. - Neither domestic nor external payment arrears were incurred. - Average y/y headline inflation remained within the MPCC band. - Progress on RTs was partly hampered by COVID-19 disruptions: - A comprehensive fiscal risk statement was published consistent with the program RT. - Diagnostic study on optimal RSSB asset allocation was not completed on time due to a change in RSSB management amid COVID-19. - BNR published a monetary policy report with macroeconomic projections after the end-April 2020 MPC meeting; adherence to best practices to be assessed in the upcoming PCI review. - Mobile-phone platform for issuing government securities was not completed due to technical delays and travel restrictions affecting consultants. - Standard continuous targets remained met. ### Program process and scheduling - Completion of the second PCI review was not feasible within the three-month grace period of the scheduled review date (June 15, 2020) because of: - Need to shift efforts to contain COVID-19. - Significant uncertainties about the near-term outlook and policy/financing needs. - More time and data required to recalibrate program targets and agree on policies, including contingency planning for significant downside risks. - Policy discussions to continue during the third review of the PCI expected to take place in October 2020, with a Board Meeting tentatively scheduled for December. ### Policy recommendations and near-term priorities - Implement measures to ensure a growth-friendly fiscal consolidation to safeguard debt sustainability as soon as the crisis abates, including: - Strong measures to bolster revenue mobilization. - Reprioritization of spending to bring public debt to prudent levels. - Revising the program fiscal rule to tighten its link with the East African Monetary Union convergence criteria for public debt while allowing flexibility for future exogenous shocks. - Revising the debt management strategy and steps to contain fiscal risks. - Protect priority spending and sustain efforts to secure concessional external financing to preserve debt sustainability and avoid crowding out credit to the private sector. - Prepare and discuss an adverse scenario and associated contingency measures with authorities for the third PCI review. - Continue ensuring transparency of COVID-19-related financing and spending: - A financing item “COVID-19 response” was created under the chart of accounts for tracking crisis-related spending. - A separate bank account under the treasury single account system was set up to receive all contributions related to the pandemic. - Information on awarded government contracts is publicly available from the government’s e-procurement website. ### 1rwaea2020004 - Section 2 ### Audit of pandemic-related expenditures - Pandemic-related expenditures will be audited by the Office of the Auditor General, and the outcome is expected to be published by May 2021. - Pandemic-related expenditures have been reported in the FY 19/20 budget. According to the Organic Budget Law, FY 19/20 consolidated financial statements (FY ends in June) are expected to be submitted to the Office of the Auditor General by September 2020. - Under Article 166 of the Constitution, the consolidated annual financial statements of the Government of Rwanda are required to be published together with the audit report shortly after it is tabled before Parliament prior to the commencement of the budget session in early May 2021. ### Key statistics and selected indicators (high-level highlights from Table 1 and Table 2) - Real GDP (series): 8.5 9.4 9.4 8.0 2.0 2.0 8.0 6.3 6.3 8.0 8.0 8.6 - CPI (period average): 2.3 2.4 2.4 5.4 6.9 6.9 5.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 - CPI (end period): 5.7 6.7 6.7 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 - Broad money (M3) (series): 21.8 15.4 15.4 21.9 5.1 2.2 17.4 22.3 19.5 16.1 18.4 13.9 - Credit to non-government sector (series): 17.6 12.6 12.6 14.8 10.2 12.2 7.9 10.3 12.4 11.4 12.7 13.2 - M3/GDP (percent) (series): 27.9 26.3 26.3 29.8 25.4 24.7 30.9 28.9 27.5 29.6 28.7 28.7 - Total revenue and grants (percent of GDP, series): 23.6 23.6 23.8 23.1 20.1 21.2 22.9 20.7 20.7 20.6 20.7 20.7 - Tax revenue (series): 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.9 13.5 14.7 16.5 14.3 14.3 14.9 14.9 15.5 - Grants (series): 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.1 4.1 3.6 3.6 3.1 - Expenditure (percent of GDP, series): 31.9 31.8 31.8 29.0 31.7 29.6 29.2 30.1 30.1 27.2 27.0 26.3 - Current (series): 15.9 15.6 15.6 14.5 15.7 15.1 14.6 15.8 15.8 13.5 13.3 13.3 - Capital (series): 12.7 13.2 13.2 12.2 12.1 11.1 12.7 11.9 11.9 11.3 11.3 10.8 - Primary balance (series): -6.9 -6.8 -6.7 -4.2 -9.9 -6.8 -4.9 -7.7 -7.6 -4.9 -4.8 -4.3 - Overall balance (series): -8.2 -8.1 -8.0 -5.9 -11.6 -8.4 -6.3 -9.4 -9.4 -6.6 -6.3 -5.6 - Excluding grants (series): -12.7 -12.3 -12.2 -10.0 -16.2 -13.1 -10.6 -13.6 -13.5 -10.2 -9.9 -8.7 - Debt-creating overall balance (excl. PKO) (series): -6.7 -6.6 -6.5 -5.7 -11.3 -7.8 -6.4 -9.6 -9.5 -7.1 -6.8 -6.3 - Net domestic borrowing (series): 2.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 2.5 1.1 2.0 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 - Total public debt incl. guarantees (series): 59.0 58.5 58.5 58.9 68.1 64.9 59.8 75.7 72.5 76.3 73.3 72.4 - External public debt (series): 46.0 45.6 45.6 45.6 48.1 55.0 52.9 49.8 61.9 58.8 61.1 61.1 - PV of total public debt incl. guarantees (series): 44.5 42.8 42.8 43.1 48.2 46.1 42.9 52.5 50.4 52.5 50.3 49.9 - Investment (series): 28.4 26.2 26.2 28.2 20.9 19.9 28.8 22.2 22.2 24.7 24.7 26.1 - Government investment (series): 12.7 13.2 13.2 12.2 12.1 11.1 12.7 11.9 11.9 11.3 11.3 10.8 - Nongovernment investment (series): 15.7 13.0 13.0 16.1 8.8 8.8 16.1 10.3 10.3 13.3 13.3 15.4 - Savings (series): 14.6 14.5 14.5 15.5 2.4 3.2 16.6 9.5 9.4 12.4 13.4 15.8 - Exports (goods and services) (series): 21.5 21.3 21.3 21.8 13.1 13.1 22.6 21.2 21.2 22.6 24.0 25.8 - Imports (goods and services) (series): 34.9 33.1 33.1 34.1 29.3 28.7 34.3 34.3 33.8 33.8 35.2 34.8 - Current account balance (incl grants) (series): -10.6 -9.2 -9.2 -9.9 -16.7 -14.6 -9.1 -10.5 -10.6 -10.0 -9.0 -8.7 - Gross international reserves (In millions of US$ series): 1,367 1,440 1,440 1,553 1,207 1,212 1,654 1,461 1,462 1,598 1,720 1,913 - Gross international reserves (In months of next year's imports series): 4.4 5.7 5.7 5.8 4.6 4.0 4.0 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.9 ### Quantitative targets and program indicators (selected highlights from Table 2) - Ceiling on the debt-creating overall balance, including grants (Half-yearly, RWF billions): -276 -320 97 -417 -303 Met -589 -600 97 -697 -729 Not Met - Floor on stock of Net Foreign Assets (Half-yearly): 980 972 -93 879 1041 Met 858 910 -928 181,071 Met - Ceiling on net accumulation of domestic arrears: 0 0 0 Met 0 0 -1.4 Met - Continuous target — Ceiling on stock of external payment arrears (US$ millions): 0 0 ... 0 Met 0 0 ... 0 Met - Monetary Policy Consultation Band — CPI Inflation target: 5.0 5.0 2.4 Met 5.0 5.0 6.3 Met - Floor on domestic revenue collection (Memorandum): 823 779 812 Met 1,726 1,678 1,614 Not Met - Total priority spending (Memorandum): 411 411 471 Met 885 885 949 Met - Total budget support (US$ millions) (Memorandum): 439 477 383 617 742 845 - RWF/US$ program exchange rate (Memorandum): 879 923 923 879 923 923 ### Reform targets, December 2019–June 2020 (selected status items from Table 4) - Fiscal - Produce a report outlining detailed options for improving functioning of VAT, including measures that could be implemented in FY20/21. — end-Dec 2019 — Met - Automating the risk based verification process for refund claims. — end-Dec 2019 — Not Met - Begin producing quarterly budget execution reports in GFS 2014 format. — end-Dec 2019 — Met - Produce a comprehensive fiscal risk analysis statement. — end-Jun 2020 — Met - Contract a diagnostic study on optimal RSSB asset allocation. — end-Jun 2020 — Not Met - Monetary and Financial - Improve communication for monetary policy by organizing quarterly outreach after each MPC meeting, including roundtable discussions with CEOs of commercial banks and other financial institutions, as well as other interested stakeholders. — end-Dec 2019 — Met - Publish macro projections for MPC decision making in quarterly inflation reports, according to best practices established by other central banks. — end-Jun 2020 — TBD - Introduce a platform for issuing government securities using mobile phones. — end-Jun 2020 — Not Met *International Monetary Fund — Interim Performance Update Under the Policy Coordination Instrument for Rwanda (Staff Report, September 18, 2020).* ### Section 1 ### 1rwaea2020004 - Section 1 ### Executive summary and context - COVID-19 has had a severe economic impact on Rwanda through strict domestic containment measures and global spillovers. - Authorities rolled out health and economic measures totaling USD 311 million (3.3 percent of GDP). - The Executive Board approved consecutive requests for emergency financing under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) on April 2 and June 11, 2020, totaling SDR 160.2 million, equivalent to 100 percent of quota. - Total IMF COVID-19 support to Rwanda reached 100 percent of quota, or USD 220.46 million. - All end-December 2019 quantitative targets for the second PCI review were met; performance on reform targets was broadly on track, with one reform delayed. - The fiscal quantitative targets for end-June 2020 became unattainable due to pandemic-related revenue losses and increased spending. - Going forward, authorities need to implement measures to ensure a growth-friendly fiscal consolidation to safeguard debt sustainability as soon as the crisis abates and continue ensuring transparency of COVID-19-related financing and spending. ### Recent economic developments - Health and mobility: - Rwanda continued to record daily increases in COVID-19 infections; localized outbreaks prompted re-instituted targeted lockdowns in selected zones. - Since approval of the second emergency financing (RCF-2), restrictions on interprovincial travel were lifted and motorcycle taxis permitted to resume passenger transport under health guidelines. - Commercial flights resumed on August 1. - Testing capacity increased with additional laboratories and drive-through testing; recent rises in infections in Kigali led to temporary market closures and bans on public transport between the capital and other districts. - Macro and price developments: - Fiscal and external positions deteriorated; economic activity contracted; demand for credit dropped. - Year-on-year headline inflation remained high, mainly driven by an upward revision of public transport fares in May. - The Rwandan franc depreciated against the dollar by 4.9 percent y/y at end-August. - Monetary and fiscal policy: - National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) reinstated charges on electronic money transactions on June 22. - BNR kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.5 percent following the August Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. - Central bank issued guidelines on loan restructuring due to COVID-19 in June. - Support to vulnerable businesses under the Economic Recovery Fund started in June, with about 1/5 of COVID-19-related spending under the Economic Recovery Plan spent to date. ### Outlook and risks - Staff baseline projections (as of this update): - Real GDP growth projected at 2 percent in 2020 and 6.3 percent in 2021. - Inflation expected to drop in 2020H2. - Fiscal and external outlook: - Fiscal deficit and current accounts projected to worsen but less than originally envisaged under RCF-2, reflecting better-than-anticipated fiscal performance in FY 19/20 and lower-than-anticipated decline in remittances. - Debt and financial sector vulnerabilities expected to remain elevated. - Better-than-anticipated FY 19/20 fiscal balance and significant mobilization of concessional financing from development partners helped close the FY 19/20 fiscal financing gap; external concessional resources expected to contribute to FY 20/21 financing. - Risks: - Considerable margin of uncertainty remains around the size of the shock and the speed and shape of domestic and global recovery. - Downside risks remain substantial. ### Program performance under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) - Pre-pandemic performance: - All quantitative targets (QTs) for end-December 2019 were met. - Continuous targets were observed. - Reform targets (RTs) were broadly on track; one RT (automation of risk-based verification for tax refund claims) was delayed due to inability to secure technical support ahead of the target date. - The monetary policy consultation clause (MPCC) was observed, with the 12-month average y/y headline inflation within the inner band at end-2019. - End-June 2020 assessment (preliminary): - 4 out of 5 end-June 2020 QTs and at least 1 out of 4 RTs linked to the third PCI review were met. - The debt-creating overall deficit (including grants) breached the program ceiling; domestic revenue mobilization fell short of the program target, with most COVID-19 impact felt through revenue losses. - Total priority spending and the stock of net foreign assets were above program floors. - The limit on the stock of new external debt contracted or guaranteed by nonfinancial public enterprises was respected. - Neither domestic nor external payment arrears were incurred. - Average y/y headline inflation remained within the MPCC band. - Progress on RTs was partly hampered by COVID-19 disruptions: - A comprehensive fiscal risk statement was published consistent with the program RT. - Diagnostic study on optimal RSSB asset allocation was not completed on time due to a change in RSSB management amid COVID-19. - BNR published a monetary policy report with macroeconomic projections after the end-April 2020 MPC meeting; adherence to best practices to be assessed in the upcoming PCI review. - Mobile-phone platform for issuing government securities was not completed due to technical delays and travel restrictions affecting consultants. - Standard continuous targets remained met. ### Program process and scheduling - Completion of the second PCI review was not feasible within the three-month grace period of the scheduled review date (June 15, 2020) because of: - Need to shift efforts to contain COVID-19. - Significant uncertainties about the near-term outlook and policy/financing needs. - More time and data required to recalibrate program targets and agree on policies, including contingency planning for significant downside risks. - Policy discussions to continue during the third review of the PCI expected to take place in October 2020, with a Board Meeting tentatively scheduled for December. ### Policy recommendations and near-term priorities - Implement measures to ensure a growth-friendly fiscal consolidation to safeguard debt sustainability as soon as the crisis abates, including: - Strong measures to bolster revenue mobilization. - Reprioritization of spending to bring public debt to prudent levels. - Revising the program fiscal rule to tighten its link with the East African Monetary Union convergence criteria for public debt while allowing flexibility for future exogenous shocks. - Revising the debt management strategy and steps to contain fiscal risks. - Protect priority spending and sustain efforts to secure concessional external financing to preserve debt sustainability and avoid crowding out credit to the private sector. - Prepare and discuss an adverse scenario and associated contingency measures with authorities for the third PCI review. - Continue ensuring transparency of COVID-19-related financing and spending: - A financing item “COVID-19 response” was created under the chart of accounts for tracking crisis-related spending. - A separate bank account under the treasury single account system was set up to receive all contributions related to the pandemic. - Information on awarded government contracts is publicly available from the government’s e-procurement website. *International Monetary Fund — Interim Performance Update Under the Policy Coordination Instrument for Rwanda (Staff Report, September 18, 2020).* ### Section 2 ### 1rwaea2020004 - Section 2 ### Audit of pandemic-related expenditures - Pandemic-related expenditures will be audited by the Office of the Auditor General, and the outcome is expected to be published by May 2021. - Pandemic-related expenditures have been reported in the FY 19/20 budget. According to the Organic Budget Law, FY 19/20 consolidated financial statements (FY ends in June) are expected to be submitted to the Office of the Auditor General by September 2020. - Under Article 166 of the Constitution, the consolidated annual financial statements of the Government of Rwanda are required to be published together with the audit report shortly after it is tabled before Parliament prior to the commencement of the budget session in early May 2021. ### Table 1 — Selected economic indicators (high-level rows and values as presented) - Real GDP: 8.59.4 9.48.02.02.08.06.36.38.08.08.6 - GDP deflator: 1.80.40.45.66.56.55.01.01.05.05.05.0 - CPI (period average): 2.32.42.45.46.96.95.01.01.05.05.05.0 - CPI (end period): 5.76.76.75.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.0 - Terms of trade (deterioration, -): -1.8 -1.8-1.8-0.1-3.3-3.30.0-0.4-0.40.70.70.0 - Broad money (M3): 21.815.415.421.95.12.217.422.319.516.118.413.9 - Reserve money: 21.517.217.222.15.82.917.821.418.620.322.711.8 - Credit to non-government sector: 17.612.612.614.810.212.17.910.312.411.412.713.2 - M3/GDP (percent): 27.926.326.329.825.424.730.928.927.529.628.728.7 Budgetary central government (percent of GDP, series as presented) - Total revenue and grants: 23.623.623.823.120.121.222.920.720.720.620.720.7 - of which: tax revenue: 16.616.716.716.913.514.716.514.314.314.914.915.5 - of which: non-tax revenue: 2.62.72.82.12.01.92.12.32.32.12.22.1 - of which: grants: 4.54.24.24.14.64.74.34.14.13.63.63.1 - Expenditure: 31.9 31.831.829.031.729.629.230.130.127.227.026.3 - Current: 15.915.615.614.515.715.114.615.815.813.513.313.3 - Capital: 12.713.213.212.112.111.112.711.911.911.311.310.8 - Primary balance: -6.9-6.8-6.7-4.2-9.9-6.8-4.9-7.7-7.6-4.9-4.8-4.3 - Overall balance: -8.2-8.1-8.0-5.9-11.6-8.4-6.3-9.4-9.4-6.6-6.3-5.6 - excluding grants: -12.7 -12.3-12.2-10.0-16.2-13.1-10.6-13.6-13.5-10.2-9.9-8.7 - Debt-creating overall bal. (excl. PKO): -6.7-6.6-6.5-5.7-11.3-7.8-6.4-9.6-9.5-7.1-6.8-6.3 - Net domestic borrowing: 2.70.90.90.72.51.12.01.41.30.40.2-0.1 Public debt and related metrics (series as presented) - Total public debt incl. guarantees: 59.058.558.558.968.164.959.875.772.576.373.372.4 - of which: external public debt: 46.045.645.648.155.052.949.861.959.863.061.161.1 - PV of total public debt incl. guarantees: 44.542.8 42.843.148.246.142.952.550.452.550.349.9 Investment and savings (series as presented) - Investment: 28.426.226.228.220.919.928.822.222.224.724.726.1 - Government: 12.713.213.212.112.111.112.711.911.911.311.310.8 - Nongovernment: 15.713.013.016.18.88.816.110.310.313.313.315.4 - Savings: 14.614.514.515.52.43.216.69.59.412.413.415.8 External sector (series as presented) - Exports (goods and services): 21.521.321.321.813.113.122.621.221.222.624.025.8 - Imports (goods and services): 34.933.133.134.129.328.734.333.833.835.235.634.8 - Current account balance (incl grants): -10.6-9.2-9.2-9.9-16.7-14.6-9.1-10.5-10.6-10.0-9.0-8.7 - Current account balance (excl grants): -13.9-11.7-11.7-12.7-18.5-16.6-12.2-12.7-12.7-12.3-11.3-10.3 - Current account balance (excl. large proj.): -10.4-9.0-9.0-8.9-15.7-13.6-8.2-9.5-9.6-8.8-7.7-6.2 Gross international reserves (series as presented) - In millions of US$: 1,3671,4401,4401,5531,2071,2121,6541,4611,4621,5981,720 1,913 - In months of next year's imports: 4.45.75.84.64.04.04.64.34.34.44.74.9 Memorandum items (series as presented) - GDP at current market prices — Rwanda francs (billion): 9,0459,1059,10510,3139,8949,89411,68810,62910,62912,04312,04313,730 - Population (million): 12.412.412.412.712.712.713.013.013.013.313.313.6 ### Table 2 — Quantitative targets, December 2019–June 2020 (selected lines and figures) Half-yearly Quantitative Targets (Billions of Rwandan francs, unless otherwise indicated) - 1. Ceiling on the debt-creating overall balance, including grants: -276 -32097 -417 -303 Met -589 -60097 -697 -729 Not Met - 2. Floor on stock of Net Foreign Assets: 980972-93 8791041 Met 858910-928181,071 Met - 3. Ceiling on net accumulation of domestic arrears: 00 0 Met 00-1.4 Met Continuous Targets - 4. Ceiling on stock of external payment arrears (US$ millions): 00...0 Met 00...0 Met - Monetary Policy Consultation Band — CPI Inflation target: 5.05.02.4 Met5.0 5.0 6.3 Met - Inflation, upper inner-bound, percent: 8.08.08.08.0 - Inflation, lower inner-bound, percent: 2.02.02.0 2.0 - Inflation, upper bound, percent: 9.09.09.09.0 - Inflation, lower bound, percent: 1.01.01.01.0 Memorandum items (selected) - Total priority spending: 411411471 Met 885885949 Met - Floor on domestic revenue collection: 823779812 Met1,726 1,678 1614 Not Met - Total budget support (US$ millions): 439477 383 617742845 - Budget support grants (US$ millions): 196222101293339188 - Budget support loans (US$ millions): 243 255 282324 403657 - RWF/US$ program exchange rate: 879923923879923923 Notes (from table) - All items including adjusters are defined in the Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU). - Numbers are cumulative from June 30, 2019. - Continuous targets. - When the end-of period year-on-year average inflation is above/below the outer band of the upper/lower bound, a formal consultation with the Executive Board would be triggered. - Floor is adjusted to exclude UN peace keeping operations, in line with the TMU. - The adjuster target inadvertently and incorrectly included PKO reimbursements. Had the target excluded PKO reimbursements, in line with the TMU, it would amount to US$ 123 million (end-December 2019) and US$155 million (end-June 2020) and the adjusted program targets for the ceiling on the debt creating overall balance, including grants and the floor on the stock of net foreign assets would amount to RWF -340 billion and RWF 965 billion, respectively (end-December 2019) and to RWF -614 billion and RWF 934 billion, respectively (end-June 2020). The assessment of both QTs under the corrected adjusted targets would remain the same. - Stock of new external debt contracted or guaranteed by nonfinancial public enterprises (US$ millions): 700700440 Met700700 ### Table 3 — Standard continuous targets (policy commitments) - Not to impose or intensify restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions. - Not to introduce or modify multiple currency practices. - Not to conclude bilateral payments agreements which are inconsistent with Article VIII. - Not to impose or intensify import restrictions for balance of payments reasons. ### Table 4 — Reform targets, December 2019–June 2020 (actions, target dates, status) Fiscal - Produce a report outlining detailed options for improving functioning of VAT, including measures that could be implemented in FY20/21. — end-Dec 2019 — Met - Automating the risk based verification process for refund claims. — end-Dec 2019 — Not Met - Begin producing quarterly budget execution reports in GFS 2014 format. — end-Dec 2019 — Met - Produce a comprehensive fiscal risk analysis statement. — end-Jun 2020 — Met - Contract a diagnostic study on optimal RSSB asset allocation. — end-Jun 2020 — Not Met Monetary and Financial - Improve communication for monetary policy by organizing quarterly outreach after each MPC meeting, including roundtable discussions with CEOs of commercial banks and other financial institutions, as well as other interested stakeholders. — end-Dec 2019 — Met - Publish macro projections for MPC decision making in quarterly inflation reports, according to best practices established by other central banks. — end-Jun 2020 — TBD - Introduce a platform for issuing government securities using mobile phones. — end-Jun 2020 — Not Met *Sources: Rwandan authorities and IMF staff estimates.* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2020/english/1rwaea2020004.pdf_