## BOTSWANA — Report on the National Accounts Mission (JUNE 2021)

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [BOTSWANA — Report on the National Accounts Mission (JUNE 2021)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2021/english/1bwaea2021002.pdf)

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### Summary of mission outcomes and priority recommendations
- A remote technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted by IMF’s Regional Technical Assistance Center for Southern Africa (AFS) during April 12–16, 2021 to assist Statistics Botswana (SB) in improving the quality of the national accounts statistics.
- SB is rebasing the national accounts to a base year of 2016.
- Progress made:
  - SUTs largely populated: margin matrix, taxes and subsidies on products, input matrix, government consumption and capital formation have been populated.
  - Backcasting from 2006 to 2016 has commenced.
  - Follow-up product-level surveys (trade services, transport, construction, manufacturing) completed and incorporated where appropriate.
  - SB implemented or is implementing recommendations from the October 2020 mission.
  - SB is receiving technical support from Mr. Jan Redeby, AfDB consultant, two days a week.
- Outstanding issues and areas needing completion prior to finalization:
  - Inclusion and allocation of FISIM in the SUTs.
  - Final informal sector estimates and inclusion in SUTs.
  - Validation and justification of revisions to rebased GVA estimates: current price levels, constant price growth rates, IPDs, and input-output ratios.
  - Validation and justification of revisions to the backcast series where methods changed (e.g., substitution of quantity indicators for deflation).
  - Analyze revisions to current GVA estimates and revised input-output ratios prior to balancing SUTs.
  - Documentation improvements: detailed data source description and justification for assumptions in product flow and industry worksheets.
  - Ensure products such as electricity, water and telecommunications are attributed across industries in input structures.
  - Review HFCE to IC ratios for each product to ensure plausibility.
  - Remove or justify VAT entries in input matrix where VAT should be allocated to HFCE.

- Priority recommendations (Target Date, Priority Recommendation, Responsible Institutions):
  - June 2021 — Finalize population and balancing of the SUTs — SB
  - June 2021 — Disseminate rebased annual GDP by production and expenditure — SB

### Annual national accounts rebase — findings and recommended actions
- Findings:
  - SB compiled rebased GVA estimates for all 59 industries except agriculture (as of prior mission); most industries' estimates completed for the 2016 base.
  - SB explored using BURS corporate income tax data for annual GVA but BURS currently captures taxable income only; BURS system update expected complete in May 2021 but not in time for this rebase.
  - SB changed the method for estimating one industry's constant price series (using a quantity indicator rather than deflation), resulting in significant revisions including growth direction changes; such changes require strong justification.
  - FISIM allocation and the informal sector worksheet remain incomplete and must be included before SUT finalization.
- Recommended Actions:
  - SB to evaluate BURS corporate income tax data when it becomes available.
  - SB to validate and justify revisions to the rebased GVA estimates, in particular current price levels, constant price growth rates, IPDs and input-output ratios.
  - SB to validate and justify revisions to the backcast series.
  - SB to finalize and include the allocation of FISIM to IC and informal sector estimates in the SUT.

### Supply and Use Tables (SUTs) — findings and recommended actions
- Findings:
  - SUT compilation is nearly complete; the balancing process has commenced but several tasks remain before finalization.
  - Population of SUTs now includes margins, taxes and subsidies on products, input matrix, capital formation and government consumption expenditure; outstanding items include FISIM and informal sector estimates.
  - SB used CEE totals allocated to product-level using follow-up survey ratios; methods reviewed and deemed sound.
  - Some product flows show implausible HFCE to IC ratios; HFCE is often considered more reliable than CEE data but ratios must be plausible per product.
  - Input matrices for several products include VAT; AfDB consultant included VAT because small-scale producers not registered for VAT cannot deduct VAT on inputs, and government pays VAT on purchases.
  - Documentation in worksheets is insufficient; data sources must be detailed beyond generic references (e.g., “Ministry of Finance”).
- Recommended Actions:
  - SB to review and validate the preliminary input structures for each industry prior to finalizing the SUT.
  - SB to review the HFCE to IC ratio for each product to ensure a plausible result.
  - SB to improve the documentation contained within the worksheets.

### Detailed technical assessment — Results Based Framework milestones and comments
- Objective: Strengthen compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic and financial statistics according to relevant internationally accepted statistical standards (including 2008 SNA).
- Key milestones, target completion dates, and status/comments:
  - Compilation of rebased GDP by production estimates — Target Completion Date: November 30, 2020 — Ongoing; analytical work including revisions analysis outstanding. Change date to May 31, 2021.
  - Compilation of rebased GDP by expenditure estimates — Target Completion Date: November 30, 2020 — Ongoing; analytical work including revisions analysis outstanding. Change date to May 31, 2021.
  - SUT populated and balanced — Target Completion Date: November 30, 2020 — Ongoing; population nearly complete, balancing outstanding. Change date to May 31, 2021.
  - Dissemination of rebased GDP estimates — Target Completion Date: January 31, 2021 — Change date to mid-June 2021.
  - Disseminate backcast series from 2006 to 2016 (the new base year) — Target Completion Date: March 31, 2021 — Change date to June 30, 2021.
  - Disseminate backcast series from 1994 to 2016 (the new base year) — Target Completion Date: June 30, 2021 — Change date to 31 December 2021.
  - Review quarterly GDP methodologies and data sources — Target Completion Date: December 31, 2020 — Ongoing; updates progressing. Change date to June 30, 2021.
  - Dissemination of revised quarterly GDP estimates based on the rebased annual national accounts — Target Completion Date: March 31, 2021 — Change date to June 30, 2021.

### Officials met during the mission
- Lekoko Simako — Statistics Botswana — lsimako@statsbots.org.bw
- Winsten Kabo — Statistics Botswana — wkabo@statsbots.org.bw
- Chandler Madisa — Statistics Botswana — chmadisa@statsbots.org.bw
- Boitumelo Kobua — Statistics Botswana — bkobua@statsbots.org.bw
- Godiraone Gaolaolwe — Statistics Botswana — ggaolaolwe@statsbots.gov.bw
- Michael Andina — Statistics Botswana — mandina@statbots.org.bw

*IMF Country Report No. 21/185 — BOTSWANA: TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REPORT—NATIONAL ACCOUNTS MISSION (completed April 2021, Publication August 2021)*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2021/english/1bwaea2021002.pdf_