## Executive Summary — Dominica Disaster Resilience Strategy (DRS)

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### Context and recent progress
- Dominica is among the countries most vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change; during 1997-2017 it had the highest GDP losses to climate-related natural disasters and ranked in the top 10 percent among 182 countries for climate-related fatalities.
- Hurricane Maria (2017) caused estimated damage of 226 percent of GDP.
- Back-to-back major storms in 2015 and 2017 prompted Dominica’s intention to become the first disaster resilient nation.
- Post-Maria public investment to rebuild resilient infrastructure increased markedly, financed mainly with Citizenship by Investment (CBI) revenues.
- Government developed the Climate Resilience and Recovery Plan (CRRP); the Disaster Resilience Strategy (DRS) draws on existing plans and integrates resilience priorities into a macro-fiscal framework.

### DRS purpose, organization, and total cost
- DRS is organized around three pillars:
  - Pillar I. Structural resilience.
  - Pillar II. Financial resilience.
  - Pillar III. Post-disaster resilience.
- Total estimated 20-year cost: US$2.8 billion (five times Dominica’s GDP).

### Pillar I — Structural resilience (high-level measures and sectoral progress)
- Hard measures: upgrade infrastructure, irrigation, roads, bridges, buildings, and public service infrastructure.
- Soft measures: early warning systems, customized building codes, zoning rules.
- Selected sectoral progress and figures:
  - Repaired 19 bridges and 15 sections of damaged roads.
  - Reconstruction/rehabilitation cost of Douglas Charles Airport after Erika: EC$48 million.
  - River dredging and flood mitigation (2015-2019): US$65 million (12 percent of GDP) allocated to dredge rivers in 11 locations.
  - Power distribution estimated damage after Maria: 75 percent of capacity; electricity available in over 95 percent of the island one year after the storm.
  - Public expenditure to support housing construction and repair through 2017-19: 15 percent of GDP.
  - Government rehabilitated 7,000 homes in the past 5 years (around a quarter of the housing stock).
  - Towns of Petite Savanne and Dubique relocated to non-vulnerable areas.
  - Geothermal project: new 7MW plant to replace most diesel generation needs.
  - S-REP targets (if met):
    - i) 90 percent of electricity generated by renewable energy sources by 2029;
    - ii) reduction in the annual cost of diesel fuel by 94%;
    - iii) a 44% reduction in the total cost of electricity generation between 2020 – 2038.
- Health project: new hospital revised for resiliency; estimated project cost: U$S300 million (financed as a grant by the government of China).
- Housing targets and financing:
  - Near 1,000 new homes constructed with CBI program revenues.
  - Government target: construction of 5,000 new homes resilient to natural disasters.
  - World Bank Housing Recovery Project: $40 million.

### Pillar II — Financial resilience (insurance, VRF, and fiscal institutions)
- Objective: comprehensive insurance strategy with a risk layering framework targeting coverage of 99 percent of estimated fiscal costs related to natural disasters.
- Layering approach:
  - Layer 1 — Small and medium disasters: saving fund for self-insurance. Simulation indicates a saving fund of 12 percent of GDP plus annual savings of 1.5 percent of GDP in years with no natural disaster would be sufficient to cover expected fiscal cost of rehabilitation and reconstruction.
  - Layer 2 — Large disasters: high access under CCRIF; increase coverage from 25 percent to maximum risk ceding; consider Aggregated Deductible Covers.
  - Layer 3 — Extreme disasters: consider CAT bonds in the medium term (regional issuance likely required).
- CCRIF participation and premiums:
  - Gross premium paid to CCRIF (per peril as presented):
    - Tropical Cyclone: $885,263
    - Earthquake: $100,000
    - Excess Rainfall: $531,690
  - CCRIF payouts to Dominica (Event / Payout (US$)):
    - Earthquake, 29 November 2007: 528,021
    - Tropical Storm Erika, 27 August 2015: 2,402,153
    - Tropical Cyclone Maria, September 2017: 20,303,822
    - Total: 23,233,996
  - Observation: CCRIF payouts disburse fast (two weeks) but have been vastly below post-disaster needs and not always aligned with extent of damage.
- Estimated costs and fiscal implications:
  - Targeted total coverage: up to 26 percent of GDP.
  - Estimated annual fiscal cost: 2.1 percent of GDP.
  - Potential disbursements in an extreme event: up to about US$150 million.
  - Gross annual premium for full strategy: US$12 million annually.
  - High CCRIF access after FY2020/21 would increase net fiscal cost of insurance by 0.5 percent of GDP per year but reduces debt issuance uncertainty after large disasters.
- Vulnerability and Resiliency Fund (VRF) and fiscal steps:
  - Amendment to the Public Financial Management Act prepared to formalize VRF.
  - Savings of over 1 percent of GDP set aside in 2019/20.
  - In 2020/21 additional 0.4 percent of GDP saved.
  - Operationalization options: automatic allocation of CBI revenue; maintain savings of at least 12 percent of GDP; enforce minimum saving contribution every budget cycle; allow any excess above 12 percent of GDP to finance resilient investment and meet public debt service.
  - VRF disbursements would be triggered by a government declaration of national emergency.
- Institutional fiscal reforms (World Bank budget support operation expected in early 2021) include:
  - Strengthening basic budget processes and emergency-related PFM procedures.
  - Adoption of a Fiscal Rules and Responsibility Framework.
  - Strengthen MTEFF and budget preparation; improve domestic revenue mobilization and debt reporting transparency.
  - Operationalization of the VRF.
  - New Public Procurement Bill to address procurement constraints.

### Pillar III — Post-disaster resilience and social protection
- Post-disaster resilience measures:
  - Detailed action plans, emergency protocols, community awareness and preparation.
  - Clarify institutional arrangements and responsibilities to mobilize resources and contain disruption of public services.
- Social and community resilience objectives:
  - Increase participation of marginalized groups; strengthen local authorities’ capacity; develop transparent, data-driven social welfare distribution; minimize mortality/morbidity through safe shelters; increase effectiveness of community health and education systems.
  - Estimated cost of strong communities’ initiatives over next 10 years: $87 million.
- Selected community initiatives and costs/timelines (as reported):
  - Each One Reach One (EORO)-Youth Resilience Initiative EC$11 M 2025
  - Responsible Land Stewardship Initiative EC$ 250.000 2021
  - Kalinago Territory Development Strategy EC$45 M 2030
  - Community Emergency Readiness Initiative EC$11 M 2020
  - Modern Village Council Initiative EC$100.000 2022
  - Enhanced Social Safety Net Initiative EC$20 M 2022
- Food security targets and measures:
  - Accumulation of 15 days of food self-sufficiency in each community before hurricane season every year.
  - Emergency shelters to be equipped with water and food storage facilities.
  - Target to reduce food import dependency ratio to below 40 percent by 2030 (currently above 60 percent).
- Social protection information systems and registries planned:
  - Social and beneficiary registry; electronic post-disaster household assessment system; modernized payment delivery; multi-purpose unique identification system.

### Costing of DRS pillars (exact figures preserved)
- DRS total: US$2.8 billion (five times GDP).
- Pillar 1. Structural Resilience:
  - Government CRRP preliminary estimate: US$2.1-2.6 billion over 20 years (DRS projections use upper bound).
  - DRS table: Pillar 1 Physical Resilience 2.54 US$ bn — Percent of GDP 50.
- Pillar 2. Financial Resilience:
  - Building additional financial resilience cost around US$65 million over 20 years (averaging around 1 percent of GDP per year).
  - Opportunity cost of government saving fund for self-insurance: US$2.5 million per year (0.4 percent of GDP).
  - High-CCRIF access estimated annual net cost: US$4 million per year (0.7 percent of GDP, net of expected disbursements).
  - DRS table: Pillar 2 Financial Resilience 0.11 US$ bn — Percent of GDP 2.
- Pillar 3. Post-Disaster and Social Resilience:
  - Additional cost around US$270 million over 20 years.
  - Includes policies with total cost of US$15-20 million annually (2 percent of GDP on average per year), gradually declining to about 1 percent of GDP.
  - DRS table: Pillar 3 Social and Post-disaster Resilience 0.34 US$ bn — Percent of GDP 9.
- DRS Total Cost table: DRS Total Cost 2.8 US$ bn — Percent of GDP 510.

### Macroeconomic framework, execution assumptions, and financing needs
- Macro framework internalizes DRS costs and returns; model-based estimates indicate returns outweigh costs long-term by supporting higher private investment and employment.
- DRS execution assumed spread until 2041.
- Projected execution (annual percent of GDP in table):
  - Total investment rates 2021–2025: 16.1 percent of GDP each year; 2026/41: 12.1 percent of GDP.
  - Pillar 1 annual percent of GDP: 13 13 13 13 13 10 (for 2021–2026/41).
  - Pillar 2 annual percent of GDP: 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1.
  - Pillar 3 annual percent of GDP: 2 2 2 2 2 1.
- Financing gap and donor dependence:
  - Integration of DRS costs and returns shows an annual financing gap of 8 percent of GDP after incorporating a phased fiscal consolidation of 5.7 percent of GDP anchored by identified measures.
  - Attaining resilience with fiscal and external sustainability depends on an increase in donor grants of about US$63 million per year (near 11 percent of GDP per year in one scenario), 3-4 times above recent levels and higher than average in the 2010s.
  - Committed external financing for post-Maria reconstruction: about US$200 million from the World Bank and the Caribbean Development Bank remain largely untapped.
  - Financing the front-loaded DRS path requires accelerating disbursement of committed loans and grants.
- VRF and CBI:
  - DRS fiscal plan assumes CBI-program revenue gradually declines, converging to 3 percent of GDP in the long term.
  - If CBI resources remain high, a share will be allocated to a Saving Fund for NDs to start layer 1 of the insurance framework and support annual saving contributions.

### Box 3 — Does it pay to invest in resiliency? (Model simulations)
- Model: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model calibrated to Dominica.
- Climate change and AAL:
  - Climate change expected to increase ND expected Average Annual Loss (AAL) by 8-18 percent by 2050 and by 25-49 percent by 2100 under RCP8.5 scenarios.
- Economic costs without resilient investment:
  - Output decline range of 1-2 percent by 2050 and 3-6 percent by 2100.
  - Tax revenues decline by about 0.5 percentage points of GDP by 2050 and 1 percentage point by 2100.
- Benefits of resilient investment:
  - Scenario with resilient investment of 80 percent of total investment yields net positive effect: supports private investment, employment, and output; reduces expected ND damages.
  - Fiscal impact: overall fiscal balance improves by over 3 percentage points of GDP in the long term.
  - Temporal pattern: initial phase—high resilient investment costs worsen fiscal balance and increase public debt; long term—benefits accrue and outweigh costs.
- Growth implications:
  - DRS investment and output returns imply long-term output growth “around 3-2.5 percent” (text phrasing preserved).
  - Using production function and CRRP public investment rates: output growth increases by about 3 percentage points in an initial phase, then gradually declines to an increase of 2 percent in the long term relative to baseline.
  - Long-term projected growth remains above historical potential output growth estimates of 1.5 percent.
- External financing and CBI:
  - DRS assumes CBI revenue declines to 3 percent of GDP in the long term and that a VRF will allocate unpredictable CBI revenue to resilience, insurance, and debt reduction.
  - Grants projected moderately at 3.5 percent (in line with the average during the 2010s); upscale in external grant financing is key for macroeconomic sustainability.

### Fiscal consolidation, debt outlook, and scenarios (selected figures)
- Fiscal consolidation targeting savings near 6 percent of GDP phased over 6 years.
- Even with full consolidation, public debt would increase, reaching 120 percent of GDP by 2030 when DRS costs and returns are included.
- With full implementation of fiscal consolidation, reaching regional debt target of 60 percent of GDP by 2030 with the DRS cost would still result in a fiscal gap close to 8 percent of GDP per year unless additional donor grants provided.
- Additional donor grants needed estimated at US$63 million per year in scenarios described.
- Selected DRS macro-fiscal projections and indicators (table sequence preserved):
  - Real GDP (market prices): 1/-0.5 7.6 -10.5 3.4 9.0 7.3 5.7 5.5 3.1
  - Overall fiscal balance (incl. ND cost buffers): 0.3 -19.9 -10.3 -4.3 -6.0 -5.5 -5.3 -2.0 -1.7 0.1
  - Overall fiscal balance, excl. CBI: -21.8 -33.7 -21.1 -10.8 -11.4 -8.6 -7.8 -4.5 -4.3 19.6
  - Public debt (percent of GDP): 83.8 79.1 90.2 95.5 94.4 91.1 89.2 84.3 80.0 60.0
  - Current account balance (percent of GDP): -8.8 -44.6 -26.0 -18.7 -28.5 -26.7 -25.9 -20.0 -19.5 -13.5

### Insurance for low-income households and private sector insurance reforms
- Coverage gaps: many households uninsured or underinsured; insurance costs nearly doubled after Maria making market insurance unaffordable for many.
- Government options for low-income households:
  - Purchase parametric insurance for most vulnerable sectors (example: COAST policy for fisheries).
  - Consider similar instruments for agriculture.
  - Introduce proxy means-tested post-disaster support to minimize moral hazard.
  - Develop fisheries’ community insurance model with World Bank financing under Emergency Agriculture Livelihoods and Climate Resilience Project.
- Regional insurance sector reforms:
  - ECCU plan to harmonize and consolidate regulation and supervision regionally with Dominica’s support to enable pooling, strengthen supervisors, enhance competition, and potentially reduce premium costs.

### Disaster Risk Reduction, preparedness, and community measures
- Disaster Risk Reduction National Action Plan target completion by 2022 with five components including institutional strengthening, risk assessment/early warning enhancement, knowledge and innovation, risk reduction in vulnerable sectors, and preparedness.
- GFDRR-supported activities include DomiNode risk data platform, shelter assessment revisions, transport Infrastructure Asset Management System, participation in Caribbean Risk Information Program, and training on reconstruction prioritization.
- CRRP and DRS community targets include reducing food import dependence to below 40 percent by 2030 (currently above 60 percent) and accumulating 15 days of food self-sufficiency in each community before hurricane season.

*Prepared by the Dominica Ministry of Finance, in consultation with the Climate Resilient Execution Agency of Dominica (CREAD), with support from the International Monetary Fund.*

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### Context
- Dominica is among the countries most vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change.
- During 1997-2017, it was the country with highest GDP losses to climate-related natural disasters and ranked in the top 10 percent among 182 countries for climate-related fatalities.
- Back-to-back major storms in 2015 and 2017 prompted Dominica to announce its intention to become the first disaster resilient nation.
- Hurricane Maria (2017) caused estimated damage of 226 percent of GDP.
- Dominica is also prone to earthquakes and volcanic hazards.

### Recent progress
- Following Hurricane Maria, there was a significant increase in public investment to rebuild public infrastructure resilient to natural disasters, financed mainly with Citizenship by Investment (CBI) revenues.
- The government developed a strategy for disaster preparedness and response with itemized investments, policies, and estimates of resource requirements (Climate Resilience and Recovery Plan, CRRP).
- The Covid-19 pandemic caused a sharp decline in tourism receipts and tax revenues, forced increases and reprioritization in public spending for health and transfers, and necessitated modifications to a draft DRS prepared just ahead of COVID-19.

### Disaster Resilience Strategy (DRS) — purpose and organization
- The DRS is an umbrella document that draws upon existing government plans and proposals to elaborate a strategy for Dominica to build resilience against natural disasters integrated into a credible macro-fiscal framework.
- The DRS is organized around three pillars:
  - Pillar I. Structural resilience.
  - Pillar II. Financial resilience.
  - Pillar III. Post-disaster resilience.
- The total cost of transforming Dominica into a disaster-resilient state over a twenty-year period is estimated at US$2.8 billion (five times Dominica’s GDP).
- Model-based estimates calibrated to the Dominica economy indicate that the return to resilient investment outweighs the cost in the long term by supporting higher private investment and employment.
- Debt would increase in the medium term as resilient investments and policies accrue up-front while returns materialize only in the medium to long-term (the DRS assumes a two-decade gradual increase in resiliency).

### Pillars (high-level)
- Pillar I. Structural resilience:
  - Hard measures: upgrading infrastructure, developing irrigation systems, ensuring resiliency of roads, bridges, buildings and public service infrastructure.
  - Soft measures: early warning systems, customizing building codes and zoning rules.
- Pillar II. Financial resilience:
  - Use of fiscal buffers and pre-arranged financial instruments to manage recovery and reconstruction costs.
  - A comprehensive insurance framework for rapid access to financing in the wake of disasters.
- Pillar III. Post-disaster resilience:
  - Detailed action plans, emergency protocols, community awareness and preparation.
  - Clarifies institutional arrangements and responsibilities to mobilize financial and physical resources and contain disruption of critical public services.

### Recent actions and sectoral progress (selected)
- Roads and bridges:
  - Repaired 19 bridges and 15 sections of damaged roads; several sections re-built with slope retention walls and expansion to facilitate movement of large construction machinery.
- Air and seaports:
  - Reconstruction and rehabilitation cost of Douglas Charles Airport after Erika was EC$48 million.
- River dredging and flood mitigation:
  - Between 2015-2019, the government allocated US$65 million (12 percent of GDP) to dredge rivers in 11 locations.
  - Future measures will conceptualize watershed management, watershed planning, and flood risk management to minimize recurrent dredging costs and environmental impacts.
- Energy sector:
  - The power distribution network suffered estimated damage of 75 percent of its capacity after Maria.
  - DOMLEC investments restored generation capacity and distribution network; electricity became available in over 95 percent of the island a year after the storm.
- Housing:
  - Public expenditure to support housing construction and repair totaled 15 percent of GDP through 2017-19.
  - The government rehabilitated 7,000 homes in the past 5 years, around a quarter of the housing stock.
  - Towns of Petite Savanne and Dubique were relocated to non-vulnerable areas.
- Agriculture and fisheries:
  - Projects to increase food production and security (banana, coffee, cocoa; modernization of cassava, touloma, bay leaf, herbs and spices).
  - Restoration of irrigation systems, land and soil management, diversification into root crops, and support to livestock (abattoir operationalization, small ruminant industry).
  - World Bank Emergency Agriculture Livelihoods and Climate Resilience Project: US$25 million to restore agricultural livelihoods and enhance climate resilience, including reconstruction and climate-proofing of key agriculture infrastructure and restoration of forests and vulnerable watersheds.
- Institutional capacity:
  - The Climate Resilience Execution Agency of Dominica (CREAD), created in 2018, is identifying, planning, costing, and managing execution of large resilience projects and policies across 10 priority areas.

### Costing and macro-fiscal implications
- Total estimated 20-year cost: US$2.8 billion (five times Dominica’s GDP).
- Integration of DRS costs and returns into the macro-fiscal framework indicates:
  - An annual financing gap of 8 percent of GDP after incorporating a phased fiscal consolidation of 5.7 percent of GDP anchored by measures fully identified.
  - Attaining resilience with fiscal and external sustainability crucially depends on an increase in donor grants of about US$63 million per year, 3-4 times above recent levels.
- The comprehensive macroeconomic framework internalizes all costs and returns to identify financing needs and public debt sustainability implications, to support planning, prioritization, and coordination of development partners’ assistance.

### Implementation and the way forward
- The DRS can help coordinate development partners’ financial and technical assistance and catalyze donor support.
- International concessional financing and increased donor grants are imperative; Dominica would be unable to finance the cost of building resilience without such support.
- The report emphasizes the need for international cooperation to address climate change and support disproportionately affected small states such as Dominica.

*Prepared by the Dominica Ministry of Finance, in consultation with the Climate Resilient Execution Agency of Dominica (CREAD), with support from the International Monetary Fund.*

### 17.      Road network.  The road network plan includes: i) revision of road standards; ii) planning

### 17. Road network.

### Infrastructure resilience: roads, air, and sea
- Road network plan includes:
  - i) revision of road standards;
  - ii) planning and design of the road network considering mapping and vulnerability assessments;
  - iii) realignment of existing roads to minimize flooding and land slippage;
  - iv) improvement of slope stability, by adjusting side slopes, benching and retaining structures;
  - v) adequate drainage along and through the roads.
- Complementary action: regular road maintenance, proven to be an effective way to reduce the impact of natural disasters.
- Air transport and connectivity:
  - Need for alternative options and capacity to operate larger airplanes for deploying food, medicine, and relief structures.
  - Existing airport benefits from investment and dredging of adjacent rivers (proved key during hurricane Maria).
  - Government planning to build a new international airport in the north-eastern part of the island as an alternative connection point with capacity to operate larger airplanes; collateral benefits include support to tourism with enhanced connectivity at lower cost.
- Sea port:
  - Government planning construction of a new seaport with capability for transport and tourism services.
  - Rationale: existing port capacity was completely exceeded with large inflow of imports for reconstruction, food supplies, and restocking after hurricane Maria, causing logistical problems and delayed recovery.

### Flood prevention and water resources
- Flood prevention measures:
  - River dredging and reinforcement of riverbanks and hillsides to mitigate flooding risk; recurrent activity due to abundant and frequent rainfall with significant cost even outside disaster events.
- Water and sanitation:
  - Dominica Water and Sewerage Company Ltd. preparing a strategic development plan to address resiliency of water supply, including analysis of risks and hazard to infrastructure performance, and operational and maintenance practices.

### Energy sector resilience and targets
- DOMLEC plan to increase resilience:
  - Invest in underground transmission and distribution lines in urban centers;
  - Increase penetration of renewable energy;
  - Establish mini grids for isolated communities.
- Geothermal project:
  - Construction of a new 7MW geothermal electricity plant to replace most diesel generation needs, lowering electricity prices and reducing carbon emissions significantly; diesel generation to become a backup system during peak demand periods.
  - Implemented by the Dominica Geothermal Development Company Ltd, financed by the International Development Association (IDA), the Clean Technology Fund (CTF), and grants from the UK’s Department for International Development; technical assistance from the Government of New Zealand and the Agence Française de Dévelopement.
- Sustainable and Resilient Energy Plan (S-REP) — energy priorities:
  - 1) cost-efficient generation;
  - 2) increase target share of renewable sources (hydro and geothermal would cover the bulk of needs);
  - 3) improve the reliability of the electrical grid;
  - 4) significantly upgrade the resilience of homes and buildings in all towns and communities.
- S-REP targets (if met could yield significant dividends):
  - i) 90 percent of electricity generated by renewable energy sources by 2029;
  - ii) reduction in the annual cost of diesel fuel by 94% by taking advantage of geothermal resources and projects;
  - iii) a 44% reduction in the total cost of electricity generation between 2020 – 2038.

### Health and housing
- Health:
  - New hospital with significant upgrade of medical services to be constructed; revised for resiliency including structure, energy self-reliability, and disaster preparedness.
  - Estimated project cost: U$S300 million.
  - Financing and construction provided in the form of a grant by the government of China.
- Housing:
  - Ongoing resilient housing projects located in the East Coast (5), the West Coast (2) and Roseau City (2); designed to withstand hurricanes and seismic shocks with reinforced concrete walls and roofs, resistant glass windows, shelters with water and food supplies, and solar water heating structures.
  - Construction of near 1000 new homes has been possible with financing from the CBI program revenues.
  - Government target: construction of 5,000 new homes resilient to natural disasters, including shelter structures.
  - World Bank approved the Housing Recovery Project ($40 million) to contribute to recovery of housing for households affected by Hurricane Maria and improve resilient building practices.
  - Policy measures:
    - Ongoing revision of building codes with technical support from the OECS and strong enforcement commitment by the government.
    - New National Shelter Sector Strategy prepared.
    - Dominica National Bank, in coordination with government, to consider financing mechanisms to incentivize middle-income households to retrofit homes to be hurricane resistant.
    - Government transfers to support rehabilitation and reconstruction after disasters will include resiliency requirements (for example on roof construction and reestablishment of public services, particularly electricity).
    - Commitment to upgrade insurance sector regulation and supervision to ensure reliable coverage of homes and businesses in case of a natural disaster.

### Zoning, land use, and planning
- National Land Use policy (launched 2014) to be revised to incorporate zone plans identifying high-risk areas for housing development; remaining communities in vulnerable areas will be resettled.
- Government will finalize disaster risk maps indicating permitted areas for new construction and related infrastructure needs.
- Hazard, vulnerability and risk information to be required for land use decision-making; actions include development of roles, training and capacity building, and standards/guidelines for hazard, vulnerability and risk studies.
- Need to include hazard and risk information in urban plans, building standards, and permit issuance protocols—may require strengthening the Physical Planning Division and institutional coordination.
- Dominica has developed voluntary land use and development plans; development of normative frameworks to enforce plans, define roles and responsibilities, and establish controls is key.

### Financial resilience — recent progress and insurance approach
- CCRIF participation and premiums:
  - Government purchased coverage for Tropical Cyclone (TC), Earthquake (EQ) and Excess Rainfall (ER) in FY 2018/19.
  - Gross premium was paid to CCRIF by the Canadian government, including an increase in coverage with premium of $1.5 million, up from $1 million in the previous year.
  - Coverage for Tropical Cyclone: ceding percentage increased from 21 to 25 percent.
  - Earthquake risk premium and coverage more than doubled.
- CCRIF gross premiums by peril (as presented):
  - Tropical Cyclone: $885,263
  - Earthquake: $100,000
  - Excess Rainfall: $531,690
- CCRIF payouts to Dominica (Event / Payout (US$)):
  - Earthquake, 29 November 2007: 528,021
  - Tropical Storm Erika, 27 August 2015: 2,402,153
  - Tropical Cyclone Maria, September 2017: 20,303,822
  - Total: 23,233,996
- Observations: CCRIF payouts have been critical due to fast disbursement (two weeks after a disaster) but have been vastly below post-disaster needs and not always aligned with extent of damage given parametric triggers.

### Disaster Risk Financing Strategy (DRS) — risk layering framework
- Objective: Implement a comprehensive insurance strategy with a risk layering framework targeting coverage of 99 percent of estimated fiscal costs related to natural disasters.
- Layer 1 — Small and medium disasters:
  - Cover losses from small and medium but more frequent disasters through a savings fund for self-insurance, financed by CBI revenues for start-up cost plus annual budget contributions.
  - Simulation analysis indicates that a saving fund of 12 percent of GDP plus annual savings of 1.5 percent of GDP in years with no natural disaster would be sufficient to cover expected fiscal cost of rehabilitation and reconstruction.
- Layer 2 — Large disasters:
  - Covered with high access under CCRIF; recalibrate CCRIF parametric options to trigger under large disasters and consider CCRIF innovations such as Aggregated Deductible Covers.
  - Plan to increase coverage from 25 percent to maximum risk ceding.
  - Note: CCRIF insurance multiplier (ratio of annual premia / expected payout) is around 2, depending on parametric options; CCRIF cost is high and parametric correlation imperfect for small/medium disasters.
  - High coverage after FY2020/21 would increase net fiscal cost of insurance (premium cost minus expected payouts) by 0.5 percent of GDP per year, but reduces uncertainty about debt outcomes by lowering need for debt issuance after large disasters.
- Layer 3 — Extreme disasters:
  - Consider issuance of Catastrophe (CAT) bonds for extreme events in the medium term; would likely require regional issuance pooling due to high administration cost.

### Expected coverage, costs, and fiscal implications
- Targeted total coverage: up to 26 percent of GDP.
- Estimated annual fiscal cost: 2.1 percent of GDP.
- Potential disbursements in an extreme event: up to about US$150 million.
- Gross annual premium for full strategy: US$12 million annually.
- Strategy implies 7-8 times CCRIF coverage compared with when Dominica was hit by hurricane Maria, but still below government deposits from CBI revenue used so far for reconstruction.
- Simulations indicate a relatively small amount of CAT bond issuance would be needed to reach 99 percent coverage, though issuance is not considered near-term due to high cost and reconstruction/resilience investment priorities.

### Vulnerability and Resiliency Fund (VRF) and fiscal institutional reforms
- VRF steps and savings:
  - Amendment to the Public Financial Management Act prepared with IMF technical assistance to formalize creation of a Vulnerability and Resiliency Fund (VRF).
  - Savings of over 1 percent of GDP set aside in the 2019/20 fiscal year despite large fiscal need for reconstruction.
  - In 2020/21 additional 0.4 percent of GDP has been saved despite challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic.
  - Operationalization options under consideration: automatic allocation of CBI revenue, maintain savings of at least 12 percent of GDP, enforce minimum saving contribution every budget cycle, allow any excess above 12 percent of GDP to finance resilient investment and meet public debt service commitments.
  - VRF disbursements after natural disasters would be triggered by a government declaration of national emergency.
- Institutional fiscal reforms (part of a World Bank budget support operation expected in early 2021):
  - Address PFM weaknesses in basic budget processes, including budget preparation and execution, and develop/clarify emergency-related PFM procedures.
  - Adoption of a Fiscal Rules and Responsibility Framework to establish fiscal targets and reduce gaps between the budget, budget projections and actual execution.
  - Strengthen the annual Medium-Term Economic and Fiscal Framework (MTEFF) and budget preparation process through a revision of the Financial Administration Act.
  - Improve domestic revenue mobilization, including with better auditing and collection of tax arrears.
  - Strengthen transparency in debt reporting including annual publication and presentation of a Debt Portfolio Review.
  - Operationalization of the VRF.
  - Address constraints and delays in public procurement through a new Public Procurement Bill to enable a greener, more effective and efficient procurement system.

*Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2021/english/1dmaea2021001.pdf*

### 32.      Private sector insurance will be strengthened, including a government program to

### 32.      Private sector insurance will be strengthened, including a government program to cover low-income  households.

### Private-sector coverage gaps and vulnerabilities
- A significant share of the population remains uninsured or underinsured, especially the most vulnerable segment for which insurance is not affordable.
- Households with mortgages are insured as per legal mandate, and most large businesses insure buildings and other productive assets.
- The severity of hurricane Maria, with simultaneous and extensive damage across the entire country, revealed weaknesses that resulted in payment delays and liquidity shortages in the domestic insurance sector.
- The doubling of insurance cost after hurricane Maria makes market insurance unaffordable for vast segments of the population.

### Government approaches to insure low-income households
- Government is considering alternative ways to insure low income households to internalize in fiscal accounts expected government financial support to poor households after natural disasters, creating fiscal space and ensuring resources are available to support private recovery and reconstruction.
- Two policies under consideration:
  - Government purchase of parametric insurance for the most vulnerable sectors with instruments such as the Caribbean Oceans and Aquaculture Sustainability Facility (COAST) policy for the fisheries sector, which offers coverage for losses caused by adverse weather on fisheries and direct damages caused by tropical cyclones to fish vessels, fishing equipment and fishing infrastructure.
  - Similar instruments being considered for the agriculture sector.
- To maximize fiscal space and incentivize insurance coverage of the non-poor, the government is committed to introduce proxy means-tested post disaster support, minimizing moral hazard.
- The Government will develop a fisheries’ community insurance model to build resilience and reduce potential risks, with World Bank financing support under the Emergency Agriculture Livelihoods and Climate Resilience Project.

### Strengthening the insurance sector (regional approach)
- The Eastern Caribbean Currency Union is advancing a plan to harmonize and consolidate regulation and supervision at a regional level, with full support of the Dominica government.
- Regional harmonization objectives:
  - Enable efficiency gains and effectiveness by pooling financial resources and technical capacity.
  - Strengthen the independence of supervisors.
  - Enhance competition and potentially reduce the cost of insurance premia by favoring participation of strong market players who are appropriately capitalized, diversified, and re-insured.
- Observed outcome: insurance premia nearly doubled after hurricane Maria.

### Post-Disaster and Social Resilience: key findings and policies (Pillars and initiatives)
- The enormity of challenges after hurricane Maria highlighted the need to upgrade post-disaster preparedness of government and communities; issues included food distribution, loss of agricultural output, destruction of secondary and feeder roads, limited population data for targeting, and shelter shortages.
- Agriculture sector support included promotion of root crops, farmer training, and provision of seeds and fertilizers; reforms are included in a World Bank loan approved in June 2020 and an IMF Rapid Credit Facility disbursement in April 2020 was referenced.
- Social unrest and looting after Maria underscored the need to strengthen civil security and property protection.

- GFDRR-supported activities (selected):
  - Development and strengthening of the risk data management platform DomiNode and expanded datasets in 2014.
  - Revision of shelter assessment approaches and knowledge exchange on shelter building standards.
  - Development of a risk-based transport Infrastructure Asset Management System since 2016.
  - Participation in the regional Caribbean Risk Information Program producing flood and landslide hazard maps and a handbook for hazard and risk analyses.
  - Training on prioritizing reconstruction investment decisions; facilitation of rapid damage and impact assessments following Tropical Storm Erika and Hurricane Maria.
  - Identification of vulnerable locations estimating upstream risks using aerial imagery and soil sample data.
  - A planned financial package of over $100 million informed by a rapid damage and loss assessment to provide immediate support to farmers, rebuild resilient public infrastructure, strengthen resilience, and help create financial buffers.

### CRRP and DRS Plan objectives and measures
- Food security targets and measures:
  - Accumulation of 15 days of food self-sufficiency in each community before hurricane season every year.
  - Emergency shelters built as part of the housing program to be equipped with water and food storage facilities.
  - Target to reduce the food import dependency ratio to below 40 percent by 2030 (currently above 60 percent).
  - Plans to transform agriculture and fisheries for resiliency (e.g., root crops, infrastructure for protection of fishing equipment).
  - Responsible Land Stewardship Initiative to improve access to land for agricultural use.
  - Global Centre for Agricultural Resilience to develop policy and legislation, increase agro-meteorology expertise, support resilient crops and livestock, develop Agriculture and Fisheries Disaster Risk Management Plans, explore hurricane insurance options for fishing/farming communities, and develop protocols for safe sheltering of fishing boats.

- Effective Disaster Response and Recovery measures (DRS best-practice model):
  - Efficient systems for search and rescue, relief coordination, restoration of roads and ports, clean up and sanitation, and preservation of law and order.
  - Development of networks to guarantee food, water supply, and medical services.
  - Cooperation among telecommunication service providers for dissemination of vital information.
  - Business continuity measures for the public sector and key private subsectors (food wholesale and retail, agriculture, fisheries).

- Community resilience goals:
  - Increase participation of marginalized individuals and groups.
  - Strengthen local authorities’ capacity to manage resources before, during and after an event.
  - Develop a transparent, data driven method for social welfare distribution.
  - Minimize mortality and morbidity through access to well-equipped, safe shelters.
  - Increase effectiveness of community health and education systems to build preparedness and respond to disasters.
  - Estimated cost of the strong communities’ initiatives, to be delivered within the next 10 years is $87 million.

- Selected community initiatives and estimated costs/timelines (as reported):
  - Each One Reach One (EORO)-Youth Resilience Initiative EC$11 M 2025
  - Responsible Land Stewardship Initiative EC$ 250.000 2021
  - Kalinago Territory Development Strategy EC$45 M 2030
  - Community Emergency Readiness Initiative EC$11 M 2020
  - Modern Village Council Initiative EC$100.000 2022
  - Enhanced Social Safety Net Initiative EC$20 M 2022

### Disaster Risk Reduction National Action Plan (target completion by 2022)
- Five components:
  - Strengthening disaster management institutions at national, sub-national, and local community levels.
  - Enhancement of disaster risk assessment and monitoring and improving early warning systems.
  - Developing knowledge and innovation on vulnerabilities and building a culture of safety and disaster resilience.
  - Reduce risk factors and strengthen recovery plans in vulnerable sectors and populations.
  - Strengthen preparedness for effective emergency response at national and local community levels.

### Social protection information systems and registries
- Planned modernization steps:
  - Establish a social and beneficiary registry and a management information system for social programs.
  - Design an electronic post-disaster household assessment system with tablet support.
  - Modernize payment delivery for social safety net programs to promote financial inclusion.
  - Introduce a multi-purpose unique identification system to facilitate better data management, post-disaster household identification, and further financial and economic inclusion of the poor and vulnerable.
- The Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Project (partially World Bank financed) includes a component to improve hazard data collection and monitoring systems.

### DRS cost estimates (exact figures preserved)
- The estimated total cost of transforming Dominica into a disaster-resilient state is US$2.8 billion, five times the size of its GDP.
- Costs of the three DRS pillars:
  - Pillar 1. Structural Resilience: government CRRP preliminary estimate indicates total investment need in the range of US$2.1-2.6 billion, spread over a 20-year period (averaging 13 percent of GDP per year); the DRS projections are based on the upper bound of this range. This would require investment rates above historical levels of 15 percent of GDP per year until 2041, of which resilient physical structures would reach at least 10 percent of GDP.
  - Pillar 2. Financial resilience: Building additional financial resilience would cost around US$ 65 million, spread over a 20-year period (averaging around 1 percent of GDP per year). Costs of a layered insurance framework include:
    - Opportunity cost of government saving fund for self-insurance of US$2.5 million per year (0.4 percent of GDP), part of which could be covered with access to World Bank CATDDO (insurance layer 1).
    - High-CCRIF access for medium and large disasters, at an estimated annual net cost of US$4 million per year (0.7 percent of GDP, net of expected disbursements).
    - The net present value of this insurance cost for the next 20 years, net of estimated expected payouts, is US$65 million, or 12 percent of GDP.
    - The cost of Layer 3 with market instruments such as CAT bonds is not included in the DRS framework due to its high cost.
  - Pillar 3. Post-Disaster Relief and Social Resilience: Building additional post-disaster and social resilience would cost around US$270 million, spread over a 20-year period. This includes policies with total cost of US$15-20 million annually (2 percent of GDP on average per year) for development of resilient agriculture and food security, integration of CREAD functions into the Ministry of Finance regular operations, promotion of renewable energy use, and development of sustainable ecosystems. This cost would gradually decline in the long term as initial programs have been established to about 1 percent of GDP.
- DRS summary table figures (as presented):
  - Pillar 1 Physical Resilience 2.54 US$ bn Percent of GDP 50
  - Pillar 2 Financial Resilience 0.11 US$ bn Percent of GDP 2
  - Pillar 3 Social and Post-disaster Resilience 0.34 US$ bn Percent of GDP 9
  - DRS Total Cost 2.8 US$ bn Percent of GDP 510

### Macroeconomic framework and execution assumptions
- The macroeconomic framework incorporates the DRS policies and investments’ cost and return, including estimated cost of the three DRS pillars and anticipated economic response of higher public investment with resilience (feedback effects on output and tax revenue from private investment and employment).
- Simulation analysis indicates economic returns of investment in resiliency outweigh the cost through reduced rehabilitation and reconstruction costs and reduced private sector expected losses that increase investment and employment.
- Given the high DRS cost, particularly of Pillar 1, the macroeconomic framework assumes DRS execution is spread until 2041.
- Projected execution (percent of GDP and US$ million) summary:
  - Total investment rates reported: 2021–2025 around 16.1 percent of GDP each year, 2026/41 at 12.1 percent of GDP (Total figures shown as 16.1,16.1,16.1,16.1,16.1,12.1).
  - Pillar 1 annual percent of GDP in table: 13 13 13 13 13 10 (for 2021–2026/41 respectively).
  - Pillar 2 annual percent of GDP in table: 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1.
  - Pillar 3 annual percent of GDP in table: 2 2 2 2 2 1.
- Cumulative Pillar NPV/projected totals (as reported):
  - Pillar 1 Cumulative (US$mn) 751 582 483 464 492 018 2467 2467 (presented as a contiguous series in source).
  - Pillar 2 Cumulative (US$mn) 613 212 938 220 258 65 (presented as a contiguous series in source).
  - Pillar 3 Cumulative (US$mn) 122 438 536 920 026 9269 (presented as a contiguous series in source).
  - Note in source: "1/ Net Present Value of the insurance cost, net of estimated expected payouts. Cost declines over times as the country builds resiliency."

*Source: 1dmaea2021001 - 32.      Private sector insurance will be strengthened, including a government program to cover low-income households.*

### Box 3. Does It Pay to Invest in Resiliency?

### Box 3. Does It Pay to Invest in Resiliency?

### Simulation results and key findings
- Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model calibrated to the Dominica economy indicates real and fiscal returns of resilient investment outweigh the cost.
- Resilient investment raises private investment and employment, strengthening fiscal performance.
- Results incorporate increased expected damages from disaster intensification under global warming.

### Climate change and expected Average Annual Loss (AAL)
- Climate change is expected to increase NDs’ expected Average Annual Loss (AAL) by 8-18 percent by 2050 and by 25-49 percent by 2100 under RCP8.5 global warming scenarios (increase in atmospheric temperatures of 1.2-2.2 degrees Celsius by year 2050 and 3.0-5.6 degrees Celsius by 2100).
- Calibration: CCRIF—estimated AAL augmented by percent increase in estimated annual damage based on Acevedo (2016).

### Economic costs without resilient investment
- Model simulations assuming higher AAL (to account for increased ND intensity) indicate an output decline in the range of 1-2 percent by 2050 and 3-6 percent by 2100.
- Absent resilient investment:
  - Private investment declines, reducing capital per worker.
  - Wages face downward pressure; labor out-migration and employment decline.
  - Tax revenues decline by about 0.5 percentage points of GDP by 2050 and 1 percentage point by 2100, worsening the fiscal balance.

### Benefits of investing in resilient infrastructure
- Simulations with climate-change increased loss and a shift to resilient investment of 80 percent of total investment show a net positive effect.
- Lower expected ND damages when infrastructure is resilient support private investment, employment, and output in the long term, offsetting negative effects of global warming.
- Fiscal impact:
  - Increase in tax revenues from higher output, labor, and consumption more than offsets higher fiscal cost in the long-term.
  - Overall fiscal balance improves by over 3 percentage points of GDP in the long term.
- Temporal pattern:
  - Benefits accrue in the long-term as resiliency is gradually built.
  - Initial phase: high cost of resilient investment worsens fiscal balance and increases public debt.

### DRS investment and growth implications
- High projected investment rates and estimated output return to resilience imply long-term output growth of around 3-2.5 percent (text states “around 3-2.5 percent”).
- Using a production function including public capital, private capital, employment, and TFP, and assuming public investment rates in the CRRP:
  - Output growth would increase by about 3 percentage points of GDP in an initial phase, then gradually decline to an increase of 2 percent in the long term relative to baseline with historical public investment.
  - Near-term growth rates are below potential owing to Covid-19 and somewhat negative impact of fiscal consolidation in the DRS plan.
  - Long-term projected growth gradually declines to near 2 percent but remains above historical potential output growth estimates of 1.5 percent.

### External financing and reconstruction commitments
- Committed external financing for post-Maria reconstruction: financing envelopes to Dominica of about US$200 million from the World Bank and the Caribbean Development Bank remain largely untapped.
- Commitments for reconstruction and development of resilience add up to near 40 percent of GDP when adding other sources.
- World Bank support includes resilient housing and geothermal energy generation and financing to support health spending during the Covid-19 pandemic with components of infrastructure resiliency and food security.
- CDB preparing a Policy-Based Loan anchored on structural fiscal reform and resilience; roads and bridges rehabilitation largely funded by the People’s Republic of China government and the World Bank.
- Financing the front-loaded path of capital expenditure of the DRS requires accelerating disbursement of committed loans and grants.

### CBI revenue, VRF, and grant projections
- DRS fiscal plan assumes CBI-program revenue gradually declines, converging to 3 percent of GDP in the long term.
- If CBI resources remain high, a share will be allocated to a Saving Fund for NDs to start up layer 1 of the insurance framework; additional revenue could support annual saving contributions for self-insurance and invest in resilient infrastructure after a disaster.
- Government will establish a VRF with strong governance and transparency standards to allocate unpredictable CBI revenue to resilience, insurance, and debt reduction.
- Grants are projected moderately at 3.5 percent (in line with the average during the 2010s), but at a much lower level than the previous decade.
- Upscale in external grant financing would be key to secure financing of the DRS consistent with macroeconomic sustainability.

### Fiscal consolidation plan and measures
- Government will implement fiscal consolidation targeting savings of near 6 percent of GDP, phased over the next 6 years to smooth impact on domestic demand.
- Revenue-side measures (selected):
  - Restructuring of tax incentives with an annual cap on discretionary concessions to maximize returns while minimizing revenue loss.
  - Increase in tax auditing resources.
  - Acceleration of pension reform: (i) increase in contributions and retirement age; and (ii) increase in contribution years to qualify for pension.
  - Property tax reform; solid waste charge; review preferential rate of diesel consistent with carbon emissions reduction; targeted cost recovery fees on health care services; personal income tax reform including presumptive taxation; remove exemptions on water and sewage tariffs.
- Expenditure-side measures (selected):
  - Maintain public wage restraint so wage bill growth is below inflation in the long term; civil service reform including public employment reclassification and rationalization of allowances.
  - Identification and discontinuation of nonpriority public investment projects of about 5 percent of GDP post-Hurricane Maria.
  - Review pension calculation formula; rationalization of capital transfer programs.
  - Better targeting of social transfers via proxy means testing and improved household/social information systems.

### Fiscal sustainability, debt, and donor dependence
- Even with full implementation of the fiscal consolidation plan, public debt would take an increasing trajectory, reaching 120 percent of GDP by 2030 when DRS costs and returns are included.
- Attaining resilience with fiscal and external sustainability crucially depends on donor support.
- With full implementation of fiscal consolidation, reaching the regional debt target of 60 percent of GDP by 2030 with the DRS cost would still result in a fiscal gap of close to 8 percent of GDP per year.
- Additional donor grants needed would increase to near 11 percent of GDP per year (US$63 million).
  - This amount is higher than average in the 2010s (range US$5-15 million per year) but similar to grant support received in the 2000s.

### Implementation, donor coordination, and administrative issues
- The DRS will be updated periodically to reflect recent developments, resilience cost revisions, and additional infrastructure and insurance needs.
- Materialization of DRS requires cultural change in Dominica and strong international support; Dominica had negligible contribution to causes of global warming and cannot become resilient without substantial technical and financial support.
- Access to donor financing could be facilitated by streamlined requirements and application processes; current complicated and diverse administrative processes impose disproportionate burden on small states with limited capacity.
- Dominica supports regional initiatives to pool resources for grant financing and accreditation in regional institutions (CDB, OECS); streamlining qualification, application, and disbursement remains key and requires coordination among international donors.

### Selected DRS macro-fiscal projections and indicators (as presented)
- Real GDP (market prices): 1/-0.5 7.6 -10.5 3.4 9.0 7.3 5.7 5.5 3.1 (table formatting preserved as in source).
- Overall fiscal balance (incl. ND cost buffers): 0.3 -19.9 -10.3 -4.3 -6.0 -5.5 -5.3 -2.0 -1.7 0.1 (periods correspond to table rows).
- Overall fiscal balance, excl. CBI: -21.8 -33.7 -21.1 -10.8 -11.4 -8.6 -7.8 -4.5 -4.3 19.6.
- Public debt (percent of GDP): 83.8 79.1 90.2 95.5 94.4 91.1 89.2 84.3 80.0 60.0 (table period sequence).
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): -8.8 -44.6 -26.0 -18.7 -28.5 -26.7 -25.9 -20.0 -19.5 -13.5.
- Projections summary: With fiscal measures and grants, public sector debt trajectory improves relative to “without fiscal measures”; fiscal gap to reach regional debt target by 2030 remains around 7.8 percent of GDP in scenarios without additional grants.

*Source: IMF staff; Fund staff calculations and authorities data as presented in Box 3 of the provided content.*

### Annex I. Cost and Damage in Recent Tropical Storms

### Annex I. Cost and Damage in Recent Tropical Storms

### Tropical Storm Erika (August 2015) — summary and sectoral damages
- Event description:
  - Produced extraordinary rainfall causing intense and rapid flooding.
  - Severe infrastructural damage, primarily in the transportation, housing and agriculture sectors.
  - Population effects: 7,229 people affected (out of a 72,340 population); 713 evacuated; 574 homeless; 22 missing; 11 dead.
- Sectoral damages and losses (US$ millions):
  - Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry: Damage 42.46; Loss 4.87; Total 47.33
  - Tourism: Damage 19.48; Loss 11.70; Total 31.18
  - Industry and Commerce: Damage 9.13; Loss 0.56; Total 9.69
  - Water and Sanitation: Damage 17.14; Loss 2.38; Total 19.52
  - Air and Sea Ports: Damage 14.90; Loss 0.08; Total 14.98
  - Roads and Bridges: Damage 239.25; Loss 48.28; Total 287.53
  - Electricity: Damage 2.19; Loss 0.33; Total 2.52
  - Telecomm: Damage 10.0; Loss 0.00; Total 10.0
  - Housing: Damage 44.53; Loss 9.61; Total 54.14
  - Education: Damage 3.55; Loss 0.45; Total 4.00
  - Health: Damage 0.64; Loss 1.30; Total 1.94
  - Total: Damage 403.28; Loss 79.56; Total 482.84
- Source for summary table: Commonwealth of Dominica. Rapid Damage and Impact Assessment.

### Hurricane Maria (2017) — impact overview and sectoral burden
- Event context:
  - Struck while Dominica was still recovering from Tropical Storm Erika.
  - Described as Dominica’s worst natural disaster, affecting almost every household and economic sector.
- Distribution of losses and damages:
  - 58 percent of losses and damage fell on the private sector.
  - Private housing damage was equivalent to 61 percent of GDP.
  - Losses and damage in the tourism sector amounted to about 16 percent of GDP, concentrated heavily in hotels.
  - Labor-intensive sectors sustained substantial loss and damage, particularly agriculture, transport, and commerce.
  - The public sector bore the remaining damage, with infrastructure accounting for 43 percent of GDP.
- Tabulated categories presented in assessment (definitions provided in source):
  - Damage: Includes mainly replacement cost of structures.
  - Losses: Includes flow losses, typically in terms of output foregone.
  - Recovery Cost: Captures the costs of reconstruction of structures with resilience to natural disasters.
  - “Other” includes costs for disaster-risk reduction and other cross-cutting costs.
- Source for Maria assessment: Commonwealth of Dominica Post-Disaster Risk Assessment, November 2017.

*Source: Commonwealth of Dominica. Rapid Damage and Impact Assessment; Commonwealth of Dominica Post-Disaster Risk Assessment, November 2017.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2021/english/1dmaea2021001.pdf_