## 1. Premature Deaths Due to Pollution Exposure, 2016

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### Key context and health impacts
- Premature mortality due to air pollution-related illnesses is affecting Hungary’s population and is cited among reasons for emigration.
- Health costs stemming just from coal-fired power plants are estimated around 0.3-0.5 percent of GDP in 2013 (Schaible et al, 2016).
- Some estimates suggest that, in the absence of mitigating policies, higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will reduce real GDP per capita level by 5 percent, on average, in the EU countries by the end of the 21st century (WEO, 2017).

### Energy supply and emissions profile
- More than two-third of Hungary’s total primary energy supply comes from fossil fuel.
- Hungary imports around 90 percent of its oil and natural gas and 30 percent of its electricity supply.
- Domestic electricity is mostly produced from nuclear power and coal; natural gas contributes to about a fifth of the total electricity generated in Hungary.
- The highest emitters among domestic sectors are industry, transport, residential housing, and agriculture.
- Hungary’s agriculture is the least methane and NO emitter among European countries.

### Emissions trends and targets
- Hungary reduced its GHG emission by 32 percent between 1990 and 2019.
- By 2020, emissions not covered by the EU Emissions Trading System (non-ETS) had decreased by an estimate 9 percent from 2005 levels, while they were allowed to increase by 10 percent under the Effort Sharing Decision.
- Hungary has committed to reducing emissions by 7 percent under the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) (target might be subject to revision based on the new, at least 55 percent target).
- EU’s current (2020) commitment under the Paris Agreement is to cut carbon emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030 relative to 1990 levels and achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
- Hungary’s national objectives include:
  - reduce GHG emissions by at least 40 percent by 2030 based on 1990 levels;
  - limit energy consumption in 2030 to the 2005 level (785 PJ), with any excess growth to be achieved only from carbon-neutral energy sources;
  - have renewables constitute at least 21 percent of gross final energy consumption by 2030;
  - have at least 90 percent of domestic power production to be CO2-free by 2030, once the Paks nuclear plant extension and upgrade is complete and solar energy production is further increased;
  - achieve net-zero emissions (climate neutrality) by 2050.

### Progress on renewables and efficiency
- Solar generation capacities more than tripled (to 1,825 MW) between 2016 and 2020Q3.
- Progress on energy efficiency target has been less than intended: both primary and final energy consumption increased over 2014–19.
- Household energy consumption per capita remains 12 percent higher than the EU average, even though income levels are considerably lower.
- Energy efficiency in the residential sector remains weak; Hungary might miss its 2020 energy saving target.

### Buildings, retrofitting, and electrification
- Existing building stock is largely energy inefficient; significant carbon-emission reduction could be achieved from retrofitting existing buildings, exceeding 60 percent.
- Estimated costs:
  - The estimated cost of Hungary’s plan is €150 billion, i.e., 2–2.5 percent of the annual GDP up to 2050 (Ministry for Innovation and Technology, 2019).
  - Total investment only in retrofitting and electrification could cost a cumulative 40 percent of 2019 GDP by 2050 to meet the targets.
- Under current technology standards and prices, energy cost savings are expected to eventually broadly offset the cost of investment for upgrading technologies and renovating buildings at the national level, although at very different horizons across countries.
- Modernization of the residential building stock can reduce natural gas imports by up to a quarter.
- Renovation of three percent of the floor area of central government buildings annually is an objective expected to bring efficiency savings.

### Policy framework and measures
- Hungary adopted the final National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) in January 2020, the Climate Protection Act (Act XLIV of 2020 on Climate Protection, CPA), the Climate and Environmental Protection Action Plan (CEPAP) in mid-2020, and the first Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) in 2020.
- Strategic measures include:
  - tightening the Emissions Trading System (ETS) covering large emitting sectors;
  - requirements for energy efficiency, vehicle CO2 emission standards, and renewables;
  - Energy Efficiency Obligation System (EOS) to implement cost-effective energy efficiency solutions and investments, primarily for households;
  - Green Bus Program to replace local public buses and reduce fleet emissions;
  - programs to support energy innovation and promote housing heating modernization.
- Government preconditions for the transition:
  - The costs of the transition should primarily be borne by the largest emitters;
  - The price of food and energy should remain affordable for final customers;
  - Nuclear energy will be essential for sector integration and to reach climate neutral economy.

### Financing and EU support
- NECP indicates at least 25 percent of €17 billion in Cohesion Funds (2021-27) slated for Hungary should be used for implementing climate change policies.
- Specific EU funds and amounts mentioned:
  - “Greener, carbon free Europe” objective: €362 million from Cohesion funds;
  - EU Modernization Fund (operating from 2021) will provide around €485 million;
  - Hungary’s share of the Just Transition Fund: €237 million (2018 prices);
  - €6,2 billion is available for climate change objectives from the Recovery and Resilience Fund (both grants and loans) and €5,9 billion from the Cohesion Fund and the European Regional Development Fund.
- Hungary issued two sovereign green bonds amounting €1.7 billion in 2020 (oversubscribed), with bulk earmarked for railway system upgrades; a third domestic green bond (HUF 30 billion) was issued on April 22, 2021.
- Hungary received the Sovereign Green Market Pioneer Award from the Climate Bond Initiative.

### Implementation challenges and fiscal instruments highlighted
- The note emphasizes the need for:
  - transparent, quantitative frameworks for projecting emissions commitments and assessing environmental, fiscal, and economic impacts of mitigation policies;
  - carbon pricing and other fiscal mitigation instruments to effectively support green investment;
  - prioritizing public investment and incentivizing private investment in green infrastructure and innovation;
  - reducing subsidies and tax exemptions for emissions-intensive activities and promoting green finance.
- Sector-specific policies (e.g., carbon-border adjustment) require EU-level agreements and are not discussed in detail.

### Hungary’s strategy for decarbonization — Strengthening Carbon Pricing
- NECP aim: “to strengthen energy sovereignty and energy security, and to achieve the decarbonization of energy production.” The NECP states this “is possible only through the combined use of nuclear energy and renewable energy.”
- Current energy taxation and effective tax rates on carbon emissions are low relative to other European countries:
  - Fuel excise tax is below the EU average, and there is no explicit carbon tax.
  - In the residential and commercial sector only 18 percent of emissions are taxed at €5 per ton of CO2.
  - The carbon pricing gap for Hungary stood at 66 (2015 comparison), indicating scope for larger energy taxation.
- Sectoral effective prices and coverage:
  - Residential effective price on covered emissions is low.
  - The transport sector is priced at above €60 per ton of CO2 (cumulative) in Hungary.
- Welfare and emissions impacts of an explicit carbon tax:
  - IMF mitigation tool projects domestic environmental benefits of a nationwide €50 carbon price per ton in 2030 would exceed domestic costs for Hungary.
  - Under business-as-usual with current zero pricing, Hungary’s emissions are projected to increase from 45 to 50 million tons (mts) by 2030.
  - Introducing a carbon tax and increasing it by $6 per ton annually over the next decade would reduce emissions to 43 mt by 2030.
  - A $9 per ton annual increase would allow Hungary to reach 39 mts by 2030.
- Policy design considerations:
  - Apply a domestic carbon surcharge to emissions covered by the ETS to meet an escalating target price and set the domestic carbon tax (for other emissions sources) equal to this price.
  - Phase-in of an explicit carbon tax is recommended, noting that “countries with lower income per capita bear higher costs from carbon tax increases (paragraph 15).”
  - If politically difficult to raise carbon prices, complementary tools such as feebates, subsidies, or regulations can be used, though they are less economically efficient and do not generate fiscal revenue.
  - Coordinate with European partners to limit competitiveness impacts.
  - Use revenues from carbon pricing to finance investment gaps, compensate vulnerable households, and/or offset distortionary taxes such as labor and other special (sectoral) taxes.

### Retail energy pricing and affordability
- Hungary’s retail electricity and gas prices at the household sector level are the lowest in EU comparison, largely owing to end-user price regulation that does not recognize some cost elements.
- Consequences of low retail prices:
  - Higher prices for non-household customers as utilities recover costs there.
  - Less energy conservation by households.
  - Hungary’s wholesale electricity market prices are higher compared to neighbors due to higher domestic electricity generation costs.
- Policy options to balance affordability and conservation:
  - Gradually raise household energy prices to incentivize energy saving while shielding the poorest by leaving prices broadly untouched for the lowest consumption tranches.
  - Scale electricity and domestic gas prices through tranches (prices increase with energy consumption) to protect vulnerable households and decrease wasteful consumption by higher-income groups.
  - Address concerns about purchasing power of lower income groups through other fiscal tools (e.g., strengthen safety nets, redistributive tax policies).

### Fostering Green Finance
- Government role:
  - Promote green financing products such as green deposits and green-oriented pension funds to increase climate awareness and demand.
  - Provision of green grants and green loans has been rising in advanced economies via state development agencies.
  - Hungarian authorities and banks should adopt best practices, promoting green lending with transparent government programs through development banks and/or private banks, with program costs borne by the government.
- Recent Hungarian prudential initiatives:
  - In 2021, the National Bank introduced an initiative to improve financing conditions for domestic renewable energy production by introducing preferential capital requirements for green corporate financing (under pillar II capital charge). The program initially covers financing of renewable energy production (as defined by the EU taxonomy) and investment in green bonds; the list of eligible exposures will be gradually expanded in 2021.
  - A 2020 program provides banks with capital relief incentives for extending energy efficiency household loans till end-2024; the capital relief amounts to 5–7 percent of total green loan volume, conditional on loan interest rates being at least 0.3pps lower than on conventional mortgages.
- Risks and limitations of embedding incentives in financial regulation:
  - No final regulatory agreement yet on what qualifies as “green mortgages”; differing energy efficiency standards/certification processes complicate definition.
  - No global consensus on the appropriate size of any capital “green discount factor.”
  - Regulatory incentives apply only to credit-financed investment and exclude self (equity) financed investment.
  - Incentives through prudential regulation may not account for transition or damage risk affecting collateral.
- Recommendation: Prefer fiscal subsidies to incentives embedded in financial regulation at this stage:
  - Fiscal incentives have broader coverage, apply equally to self- or credit-financed investment, and are transparently accounted for in the budget, enabling ex-post cost-benefit analysis.
  - Examples of fiscal incentives for households include energy-dependent property taxes, other tax incentives, and subsidies for renovation loans or renewable energy-based appliances/heating/cooling systems.

### Improving energy efficiency regulation and information
- Suggested measures:
  - Run informational awareness campaigns and labeling initiatives; consider tradable energy efficiency saving certification (Energy Savings Certificates).
  - Harmonize definition and certification processes to reduce asymmetric information about ex ante energy savings and renovation costs.
  - Ensure strict enforcement of the requirement for energy performance certificates when a building is sold or rented and expand the obligation to any bank lending collateralized by real estate.
  - Establish incentives for inspection schemes for heating and air conditioning systems.
- Hungary introduced the Energy Efficiency Obligation scheme on January 1st, 2021, which encourages providers to make energy efficiency improvements or pay the energy efficiency contribution.

### Conclusion — Staff policy recommendations (summary)
- Raise carbon pricing, using approaches such as:
  - Applying a domestic carbon surcharge on ETS-covered emissions and setting a domestic carbon tax for other emissions equal to this price.
  - Phasing in an explicit carbon tax and considering sectoral approaches.
  - If politically constrained, use complementary tools (feebates, subsidies, regulations) while recognizing lower economic efficiency.
  - Consider increasing retail electricity and gas prices for households using consumption tranches to protect the poorest.
  - Coordinate efforts with European partners; use revenues for investment gaps, compensation, or tax offsets.
- Prioritize fiscal incentives for green investment over incentives embedded in financial prudential frameworks:
  - Fiscal incentives should be transparently budgeted, cover self-financed investment, and allow ex-post evaluation.
  - For households, consider energy-dependent property taxes, tax incentives, and subsidies for renovation loans or renewable energy systems.
- Improve energy efficiency regulation, standardization, certification, and enforcement to support these efforts.

*Source: International Monetary Fund — Hungary (content unit 1hunea2021002).*

### 1. Premature Deaths Due to Pollution Exposure, 2016 ________________________________________ 2

### 1. Premature Deaths Due to Pollution Exposure, 2016

### Key context and health impacts
- Premature mortality due to air pollution-related illnesses is affecting Hungary’s population and is cited among reasons for emigration.
- Health costs stemming just from coal-fired power plants are estimated around 0.3-0.5 percent of GDP in 2013 (Schaible et al, 2016).
- Some estimates suggest that, in the absence of mitigating policies, higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will reduce real GDP per capita level by 5 percent, on average, in the EU countries by the end of the 21st century (WEO, 2017).

### Energy supply and emissions profile
- More than two-third of Hungary’s total primary energy supply comes from fossil fuel (Figure 2).
- Hungary imports around 90 percent of its oil and natural gas and 30 percent of its electricity supply.
- Domestic electricity is mostly produced from nuclear power and coal; natural gas contributes to about a fifth of the total electricity generated in Hungary.
- The highest emitters among domestic sectors are industry, transport, residential housing, and agriculture.
- Hungary’s agriculture is the least methane and NO emitter among European countries (Figure 4).

### Emissions trends and targets
- Hungary reduced its GHG emission by 32 percent between 1990 and 2019.
- By 2020, emissions not covered by the EU Emissions Trading System (non-ETS) had decreased by an estimate 9 percent from 2005 levels, while they were allowed to increase by 10 percent under the Effort Sharing Decision (Figure 5).
- Hungary has committed to reducing emissions by 7 percent under the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) (target might be subject to revision based on the new, at least 55 percent target).
- EU’s current (2020) commitment under the Paris Agreement is to cut carbon emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030 relative to 1990 levels and achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
- Hungary’s national objectives include:
  - reduce GHG emissions by at least 40 percent by 2030 based on 1990 levels;
  - limit energy consumption in 2030 to the 2005 level (785 PJ), with any excess growth to be achieved only from carbon-neutral energy sources;
  - have renewables constitute at least 21 percent of gross final energy consumption by 2030;
  - have at least 90 percent of domestic power production to be CO2-free by 2030, once the Paks nuclear plant extension and upgrade is complete and solar energy production is further increased;
  - achieve net-zero emissions (climate neutrality) by 2050.

### Progress on renewables and efficiency
- Solar generation capacities more than tripled (to 1,825 MW) between 2016 and 2020Q3.
- Progress on energy efficiency target has been less than intended: both primary and final energy consumption increased over 2014–19.
- Household energy consumption per capita remains 12 percent higher than the EU average, even though income levels are considerably lower.
- Energy efficiency in the residential sector remains weak; Hungary might miss its 2020 energy saving target.

### Buildings, retrofitting, and electrification
- Existing building stock is largely energy inefficient (Figure 8); significant carbon-emission reduction could be achieved from retrofitting existing buildings, exceeding 60 percent (Figure 9).
- Estimated costs:
  - The estimated cost of Hungary’s plan is €150 billion, i.e., 2–2.5 percent of the annual GDP up to 2050 (Ministry for Innovation and Technology, 2019).
  - Total investment only in retrofitting and electrification could cost a cumulative 40 percent of 2019 GDP by 2050 to meet the targets (Figure 10).
- Under current technology standards and prices, energy cost savings are expected to eventually broadly offset the cost of investment for upgrading technologies and renovating buildings at the national level, although at very different horizons across countries.
- Modernization of the residential building stock can reduce natural gas imports by up to a quarter.
- Renovation of three percent of the floor area of central government buildings annually is an objective expected to bring efficiency savings.

### Policy framework and measures
- Hungary adopted the final National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) in January 2020, the Climate Protection Act (Act XLIV of 2020 on Climate Protection, CPA), the Climate and Environmental Protection Action Plan (CEPAP) in mid-2020, and the first Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) in 2020.
- Strategic measures include:
  - tightening the Emissions Trading System (ETS) covering large emitting sectors;
  - requirements for energy efficiency, vehicle CO2 emission standards, and renewables;
  - Energy Efficiency Obligation System (EOS) to implement cost-effective energy efficiency solutions and investments, primarily for households;
  - Green Bus Program to replace local public buses and reduce fleet emissions;
  - programs to support energy innovation and promote housing heating modernization.
- Government preconditions for the transition:
  - The costs of the transition should primarily be borne by the largest emitters;
  - The price of food and energy should remain affordable for final customers;
  - Nuclear energy will be essential for sector integration and to reach climate neutral economy.

### Financing and EU support
- NECP indicates at least 25 percent of €17 billion in Cohesion Funds (2021-27) slated for Hungary should be used for implementing climate change policies.
- Specific EU funds and amounts mentioned:
  - “Greener, carbon free Europe” objective: €362 million from Cohesion funds;
  - EU Modernization Fund (operating from 2021) will provide around €485 million;
  - Hungary’s share of the Just Transition Fund: €237 million (2018 prices);
  - €6,2 billion is available for climate change objectives from the Recovery and Resilience Fund (both grants and loans) and €5,9 billion from the Cohesion Fund and the European Regional Development Fund (as noted in footnote).
- Hungary issued two sovereign green bonds amounting €1.7 billion in 2020 (oversubscribed), with bulk earmarked for railway system upgrades; a third domestic green bond (HUF 30 billion) was issued on April 22, 2021.
- Hungary received the Sovereign Green Market Pioneer Award from the Climate Bond Initiative.

### Implementation challenges and fiscal instruments highlighted
- The note emphasizes the need for:
  - transparent, quantitative frameworks for projecting emissions commitments and assessing environmental, fiscal, and economic impacts of mitigation policies;
  - carbon pricing and other fiscal mitigation instruments to effectively support green investment;
  - prioritizing public investment and incentivizing private investment in green infrastructure and innovation;
  - reducing subsidies and tax exemptions for emissions-intensive activities and promoting green finance.
- Sector-specific policies (e.g., carbon-border adjustment) require EU-level agreements and are not discussed in detail.

*Source: IMF staff note “HUNGARY’S CLIMATE MITIGATION AGENDA: GOALS, PROGRESS AND CHALLENGES,” June 3, 2021.*

### 13.      Hungary’s strategy for decarbonization, which relies mostly on public investment and

### Hungary’s strategy for decarbonization, which relies mostly on public investment and subsidies, could be significantly buttressed by carbon pricing.

### Strengthening Carbon Pricing
- Hungary’s NECP aims “to strengthen energy sovereignty and energy security, and to achieve the decarbonization of energy production.” The NECP states this “is possible only through the combined use of nuclear energy and renewable energy.”
- Current energy taxation and effective tax rates on carbon emissions are low relative to other European countries:
  - Fuel excise tax is below the EU average, and there is no explicit carbon tax.
  - In the residential and commercial sector only 18 percent of emissions are taxed at €5 per ton of CO2.
  - The carbon pricing gap for Hungary stood at 66 (2015 comparison), indicating scope for larger energy taxation.
- Sectoral effective prices and coverage:
  - Residential effective price on covered emissions is low (Figure 12).
  - The transport sector is priced at above €60 per ton of CO2 (cumulative) in Hungary.
- Welfare and emissions impacts of an explicit carbon tax:
  - IMF mitigation tool projects domestic environmental benefits of a nationwide €50 carbon price per ton in 2030 would exceed domestic costs for Hungary.
  - Under business-as-usual with current zero pricing, Hungary’s emissions are projected to increase from 45 to 50 million tons (mts) by 2030.
  - Introducing a carbon tax and increasing it by $6 per ton annually over the next decade would reduce emissions to 43 mt by 2030.
  - A $9 per ton annual increase would allow Hungary to reach 39 mts by 2030.
- Policy design considerations:
  - Hungary could apply a domestic carbon surcharge to emissions covered by the ETS to meet an escalating target price and set the domestic carbon tax (for other emissions sources) equal to this price.
  - Phase-in of an explicit carbon tax is recommended, noting that “countries with lower income per capita bear higher costs from carbon tax increases (paragraph 15).”
  - If politically difficult to raise carbon prices, complementary tools such as feebates, subsidies, or regulations can be used, though they are less economically efficient and do not generate fiscal revenue.
  - Coordination with European partners is advised to limit competitiveness impacts.
  - Revenues from carbon pricing could be used to finance investment gaps, compensate vulnerable households, and/or offset distortionary taxes such as labor and other special (sectoral) taxes.

### Retail energy pricing and affordability
- Hungary’s retail electricity and gas prices at the household sector level are the lowest in EU comparison (Figure 15), largely owing to end-user price regulation that does not recognize some cost elements.
- Consequences of low retail prices:
  - Higher prices for non-household customers as utilities recover costs there.
  - Less energy conservation by households.
  - Hungary’s wholesale electricity market prices are higher compared to neighbors due to higher domestic electricity generation costs.
- Policy options to balance affordability and conservation:
  - Gradually raise household energy prices to incentivize energy saving while shielding the poorest by leaving prices broadly untouched for the lowest consumption tranches.
  - Scale electricity and domestic gas prices through tranches (prices increase with energy consumption) to protect vulnerable households and decrease wasteful consumption by higher-income groups.
  - Address concerns about purchasing power of lower income groups through other fiscal tools (e.g., strengthen safety nets, redistributive tax policies).

### Fostering Green Finance
- Government role:
  - Promote green financing products such as green deposits and green-oriented pension funds to increase climate awareness and demand.
  - Provision of green grants and green loans has been rising in advanced economies via state development agencies.
  - Hungarian authorities and banks should adopt best practices, promoting green lending with transparent government programs through development banks and/or private banks, with program costs borne by the government.
- Recent Hungarian prudential initiatives:
  - In 2021, the National Bank introduced an initiative to improve financing conditions for domestic renewable energy production by introducing preferential capital requirements for green corporate financing (under pillar II capital charge). The program initially covers financing of renewable energy production (as defined by the EU taxonomy) and investment in green bonds; the list of eligible exposures will be gradually expanded in 2021.
  - A 2020 program provides banks with capital relief incentives for extending energy efficiency household loans till end-2024; the capital relief amounts to 5–7 percent of total green loan volume, conditional on loan interest rates being at least 0.3pps lower than on conventional mortgages.
- Risks and limitations of embedding incentives in financial regulation:
  - No final regulatory agreement yet on what qualifies as “green mortgages”; differing energy efficiency standards/certification processes complicate definition.
  - No global consensus on the appropriate size of any capital “green discount factor.”
  - Regulatory incentives apply only to credit-financed investment and exclude self (equity) financed investment.
  - Incentives through prudential regulation may not account for transition or damage risk affecting collateral.
- Recommendation: Prefer fiscal subsidies to incentives embedded in financial regulation at this stage:
  - Fiscal incentives have broader coverage, apply equally to self- or credit-financed investment, and are transparently accounted for in the budget, enabling ex-post cost-benefit analysis.
  - Examples of fiscal incentives for households include energy-dependent property taxes, other tax incentives, and subsidies for renovation loans or renewable energy-based appliances/heating/cooling systems.

### Improving energy efficiency regulation and information
- Suggested measures:
  - Run informational awareness campaigns and labeling initiatives; consider tradable energy efficiency saving certification (Energy Savings Certificates).
  - Harmonize definition and certification processes to reduce asymmetric information about ex ante energy savings and renovation costs.
  - Ensure strict enforcement of the requirement for energy performance certificates when a building is sold or rented and expand the obligation to any bank lending collateralized by real estate.
  - Establish incentives for inspection schemes for heating and air conditioning systems.
- Hungary introduced the Energy Efficiency Obligation scheme on January 1st, 2021, which encourages providers to make energy efficiency improvements or pay the energy efficiency contribution.

### Conclusion — Staff policy recommendations (summary)
- Raise carbon pricing, using approaches such as:
  - Applying a domestic carbon surcharge on ETS-covered emissions and setting a domestic carbon tax for other emissions equal to this price.
  - Phasing in an explicit carbon tax and considering sectoral approaches.
  - If politically constrained, use complementary tools (feebates, subsidies, regulations) while recognizing lower economic efficiency.
  - Consider increasing retail electricity and gas prices for households using consumption tranches to protect the poorest.
  - Coordinate efforts with European partners; use revenues for investment gaps, compensation, or tax offsets.
- Prioritize fiscal incentives for green investment over incentives embedded in financial prudential frameworks:
  - Fiscal incentives should be transparently budgeted, cover self-financed investment, and allow ex-post evaluation.
  - For households, consider energy-dependent property taxes, tax incentives, and subsidies for renovation loans or renewable energy systems.
- Improve energy efficiency regulation, standardization, certification, and enforcement to support these efforts.

*Source: International Monetary Fund — Hungary (content unit 1hunea2021002).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2021/english/1hunea2021002.pdf_