## 1vutea2021001 - Section 1 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [1vutea2021001 - Section 1](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2021/english/1vutea2021001.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2021/english/1vutea2021001.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2021/english/1vutea2021001.pdf.json) --- ### Executive Summary - Vanuatu National Statistics Office (VNSO) requested a mission by IMF’s Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre (PFTAC) to conduct a feasibility study on implementing a quarterly national accounts (QNA) program. - The study outlines staff, organizational and data requirements for Vanuatu to implement a QNA program. - Users (MFEM and RBV) expressed demand for timelier, high-frequency publication of national accounts figures and targeted a publication date of "four months" after the end of a quarter for GDP by the production and expenditure approaches. - The report finds both production and expenditure approaches are feasible and could be produced on a seasonally adjusted basis; with limited staff it may be more practical to develop one approach initially and extend to the other later. ### Key Findings — Human Resources - "Vanuatu will require one full time equivalent employee trained in annual well as quarterly national accounts compilation to produce quarterly expenditure based and production-based GDP." - "According to the experience of other countries, the human resources permanently necessary for compiling QNA for the production and expenditure side of GDP require up to one person per year trained in the skills mentioned above." - Recommendation: "VNSO establish a quarterly national accounts teams so as to not concentrate the knowledge, skills and responsibility in one person." - If VNSO wants to move quickly, it is "advisable that VNSO re-assign individuals currently working on the Annual National Accounts Program to this work given they are already trained in national accounts." ### Key Findings — Organization - Current ANA work is split between the Principal Statistician for Economics and two related Senior Statisticians. - Staff numbers at VNSO "have been increased from 31 to 52 persons, in 2018, not including extra staff for the introduction of a QNA program." - A further position is necessary for compiling QNA; recommended that the same team compile both QNA and ANA to improve economic consistency and facilitate implementation. - Specialization is recommended by industries and/or institutions; "All statisticians should compile the number of employees and the wage bill of the industries assigned to them." ### Key Findings — Information Technology Infrastructure - Recommended tools: - Excel macro available from IMF Statistics Department (XLPBM). It "does not perform other functions such as seasonal adjustment" but can be used within existing spreadsheet systems. - EcoTrim (developed by EUROSTAT). Requires some data conversion and is not downloadable from the internet anymore, but "PFTAC can provide the files for installation." - Plug-in for temporal disaggregation and benchmarking for JDemetra+ (developed by EUROSTAT and the Bank of Belgium), which includes state-of-the-art seasonal adjustment methods; documentation and an online course are available. The plug-in "still has some bugs, so a combination of both software package is recommended." - Both software packages referenced are "available as freeware and can be installed on normal PCs or laptops." - QNA training course to use these software packages "takes one week." ### Key Findings — Data Requirements - QNA require high quality, high frequency and timely source data, primarily administrative records of government (taxation, employment records). - Some VNSO ANA source data are only available with a delay of "six months" after the end of a period; to reach the target of "four months" timeliness VNSO needs to work with data providers to improve receipt timeliness. - Priority data sources needing improved timeliness include: - BoP data - VAT data - Banking statistics - National Provident Fund data on the number of employees and the wage bill by ISIC Rev. 4 industries - Where quarterly indicators are missing for small components, recommended method: distribute annual figures over quarters without any indicator using a minimum growth rate restriction so resulting quarterly estimates sum to ANA totals; this method "does not provide any inherent extrapolation for periods beyond the last annual benchmark" and should be applied only for small components. - The annex contains indicator analyses; aggregates contributing more than "one percent" to GDP flagged as significant. ### Impact of Recent Events - "As a result of the recent and ongoing impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and Cyclone Harold on statistical compilation activities, the original actions and/or target dates may need to be revised." - IMF and PFTAC "stand ready to provide remote advice and assistance wherever possible to support statistical continuity." ### Near-term Priority Recommendations (Table 1) - April-June 2020: "Arrange supply of quarterly indicators on VAT, BoP data, banking statistics and National Provident Fund data." — Responsible: VNSO and other government agencies. - May-December 2020: "Assign staff to assemble data, set up compilation system, and assess reliability." — Responsible: VNSO. ### Additional Specifics from the Feasibility Study Sections - A. Introduction: - PFTAC met with MFEM and RBV to identify users’ needs; MFEM and RBV "expressed their interest in a target-date for publication of four-month following the end of a quarter." - Results were delegated to Vanuatu’s Macroeconomic Committee for feedback to PFTAC. - B. Human Resources Requirements: - QNA require staff trained in statistical econometric methods; methods include time series regression techniques and seasonal and working day adjustments. - "This training can be provided by PFTAC and are included in its QNA training courses." - C. Organization: - Current hierarchical administrative structure is given in Figure 1 (VNSO). - Proposed reorganization and relocation of tasks are given in Figure 2 (Economics Section). - D. Information Technology Infrastructure: - Emphasis on checking that quarterly sources/methods are compatible with annual trends; "Very different trends suggest that the indicator is unsuitable and should be replaced." - PFTAC offers to support VNSO by providing software, documentation, operational support. - E. Data Requirements: - Primary sources for QNA are administrative records; where unavailable, business surveys may be required. Annual surveys may be too detailed for quarterly use and should be adjusted to collect only information needed for QNA. - "The compilation of QNA estimates requires less information than an ANA program but the information needs to be available on a quarterly basis shortly after the end of the reference period." - "Priority should be given to the following data sources: The RBV stopped providing BoP data on a quarterly as well as on an annual basis in 2018. The last data published data cover the third quarter of 2018." *International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 21/37, Vanuatu — Technical Assistance Report: Feasibility Study on the Introduction of Quarterly National Accounts (Section 1).* ### Section 2 ### Data gaps and implications for ANA and QNA - No published banking statistics data are available; the last published data cover the third quarter of 2018. - The absence of banking statistics impedes the compilation of ANA and a future introduction of a QNA program. - VNSO needs to work with RBV to access the data on a timelier basis. - Taxes less subsidies on production are derived from government budgets which are only available on an annual basis. As they account for more than 10% of Vanuatu’s GDP, quarterly data are indispensable. - Due to technical problems the National Provident Fund, Vanuatu stopped data production in 2016. - Currently, a new system is implemented to publish the number of employees and the wage bill by ISIC Rev. 4 industries. These data should be on a quarterly basis, accessible three months after the end of quarter. ### Sector-specific data issues and recommended indicators - Electricity and Water Supply: - NA use business reports of the single provider which are only available annually. - A quarterly available nominal indicator can be derived from the company’s VAT data records. - It is recommended to get real output indicators like GWh or millions of liters, additionally. - Wholesale trade of fuel: - NA currently use business reports of companies which are only available annually. - A quarterly available nominal indicator can be derived from the company’s VAT data records. - It is recommended to get real output indicators like sold liters, additionally. - Telecommunication: - NA use business reports of the companies which are only available for annuals. - Quarterly available nominal indicators can be derived from the companies’ VAT data records. - It is recommended to get real output indicators like telephone call minutes, number of SMS and Gigabyte traffic, additionally. ### GDP(E) components and external accounts - For GDP(E) components, no severe gaps of quarterly data were identified. - Government consumption as well as the final consumption of Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH) are derived from output measures of public administration, education and health service and the output of NPISH. While this is not exactly the approach recommended by the 2008 SNA, this method can be applied the same way on a quarterly basis. - Two important components of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (construction investment and equipment) are based on construction material imports and equipment imports from the BoP. These BoP data are currently not available which poses a problem for ANA and QNA. - This problem impedes the calculation of the external sector accounts as NA exports and imports share the same definitions as BoP. *Source: 1vutea2021001 - Section 2.* ### Section 1 ### 1vutea2021001 - Section 1 ### Executive Summary - The Vanuatu National Statistics Office (VNSO) requested a mission by the IMF’s Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre (PFTAC) to conduct a feasibility study on the implementation of a quarterly national accounts (QNA) program. - The study outlines staff, organizational and data requirements for Vanuatu to implement a QNA program. - Users (MFEM and RBV) expressed demand for timelier, high-frequency publication of national accounts figures and targeted a publication date of "four months" after the end of a quarter for GDP by the production and expenditure approaches. - The report finds both production and expenditure approaches are feasible and could be produced on a seasonally adjusted basis; with limited staff it may be more practical to develop one approach initially and extend to the other later. ### Key Findings — Human Resources - "Vanuatu will require one full time equivalent employee trained in annual well as quarterly national accounts compilation to produce quarterly expenditure based and production-based GDP." - "According to the experience of other countries, the human resources permanently necessary for compiling QNA for the production and expenditure side of GDP require up to one person per year trained in the skills mentioned above." - Recommendation: "VNSO establish a quarterly national accounts teams so as to not concentrate the knowledge, skills and responsibility in one person." - If VNSO wants to move quickly, it is "advisable that VNSO re-assign individuals currently working on the Annual National Accounts Program to this work given they are already trained in national accounts." ### Key Findings — Organization - Current ANA work is split between the Principal Statistician for Economics and two related Senior Statisticians. - Staff numbers at VNSO "have been increased from 31 to 52 persons, in 2018, not including extra staff for the introduction of a QNA program." - A further position is necessary for compiling QNA; recommended that the same team compile both QNA and ANA to improve economic consistency and facilitate implementation. - Specialization is recommended by industries and/or institutions; "All statisticians should compile the number of employees and the wage bill of the industries assigned to them." ### Key Findings — Information Technology Infrastructure - Recommended tools: - An Excel macro available from the IMF Statistics Department (XLPBM). It "does not perform other functions such as seasonal adjustment" but can be used within existing spreadsheet systems. - EcoTrim (developed by EUROSTAT) offers alternative approaches; requires some data conversion and is not downloadable from the internet anymore, but "PFTAC can provide the files for installation." - A plug-in for temporal disaggregation and benchmarking for JDemetra+ (developed by EUROSTAT and the Bank of Belgium), which includes state-of-the-art seasonal adjustment methods; documentation and an online course are available. The plug-in "still has some bugs, so a combination of both software package is recommended." - Both software packages referenced are "available as freeware and can be installed on normal PCs or laptops." - QNA training course to use these software packages "takes one week." ### Key Findings — Data Requirements - QNA require high quality, high frequency and timely source data, primarily administrative records of government (taxation, employment records). - Some VNSO ANA source data are only available with a delay of "six months" after the end of a period; to reach the target of "four months" timeliness VNSO needs to work with data providers to improve receipt timeliness. - Priority data sources needing improved timeliness include: - BoP data - VAT data - Banking statistics - National Provident Fund data on the number of employees and the wage bill by ISIC Rev. 4 industries - Where quarterly indicators are missing for small components, recommended method: distribute annual figures over quarters without any indicator using a minimum growth rate restriction so resulting quarterly estimates sum to ANA totals; this method "does not provide any inherent extrapolation for periods beyond the last annual benchmark" and should be applied only for small components. - The annex contains indicator analyses; aggregates contributing more than "one percent" to GDP flagged as significant. ### Impact of Recent Events - "As a result of the recent and ongoing impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and Cyclone Harold on statistical compilation activities, the original actions and/or target dates may need to be revised." - IMF and PFTAC "stand ready to provide remote advice and assistance wherever possible to support statistical continuity." ### Near-term Priority Recommendations (Table 1) - April-June 2020: "Arrange supply of quarterly indicators on VAT, BoP data, banking statistics and National Provident Fund data." — Responsible: VNSO and other government agencies. - May-December 2020: "Assign staff to assemble data, set up compilation system, and assess reliability." — Responsible: VNSO. ### Additional Specifics from the Feasibility Study Sections - A. Introduction: - PFTAC met with MFEM and RBV to identify users’ needs; MFEM and RBV "expressed their interest in a target-date for publication of four-month following the end of a quarter." - Results were delegated to Vanuatu’s Macroeconomic Committee for feedback to PFTAC. - B. Human Resources Requirements: - QNA require staff trained in statistical econometric methods; methods include time series regression techniques and seasonal and working day adjustments. - "This training can be provided by PFTAC and are included in its QNA training courses." - C. Organization: - Current hierarchical administrative structure is given in Figure 1 (VNSO). - Proposed reorganization and relocation of tasks are given in Figure 2 (Economics Section). - D. Information Technology Infrastructure: - Emphasis on checking that quarterly sources/methods are compatible with annual trends; "Very different trends suggest that the indicator is unsuitable and should be replaced." - PFTAC offers to support VNSO by providing software, documentation, operational support. - E. Data Requirements: - Primary sources for QNA are administrative records; where unavailable, business surveys may be required. Annual surveys may be too detailed for quarterly use and should be adjusted to collect only information needed for QNA. - "The compilation of QNA estimates requires less information than an ANA program but the information needs to be available on a quarterly basis shortly after the end of the reference period." - "Priority should be given to the following data sources: The RBV stopped providing BoP data on a quarterly as well as on an annual basis in 2018. The last data published data cover the third quarter of 2018." *International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 21/37, Vanuatu — Technical Assistance Report: Feasibility Study on the Introduction of Quarterly National Accounts (Section 1).* ### Section 2 ### Section 2 ### Data gaps and implications for ANA and QNA - No published banking statistics data are available; the last published data cover the third quarter of 2018. - The absence of banking statistics impedes the compilation of ANA and a future introduction of a QNA program. - VNSO needs to work with RBV to access the data on a timelier basis. - Taxes less subsidies on production are derived from government budgets which are only available on an annual basis. As they account for more than 10% of Vanuatu’s GDP, quarterly data are indispensable. - Due to technical problems the National Provident Fund, Vanuatu stopped data production in 2016. - Currently, a new system is implemented to publish the number of employees and the wage bill by ISIC Rev. 4 industries. These data should be on a quarterly basis, accessible three months after the end of quarter. ### Sector-specific data issues and recommended indicators - Electricity and Water Supply: - NA use business reports of the single provider which are only available annually. - A quarterly available nominal indicator can be derived from the company’s VAT data records. - It is recommended to get real output indicators like GWh or millions of liters, additionally. - Wholesale trade of fuel: - NA currently use business reports of companies which are only available annually. - A quarterly available nominal indicator can be derived from the company’s VAT data records. - It is recommended to get real output indicators like sold liters, additionally. - Telecommunication: - NA use business reports of the companies which are only available for annuals. - Quarterly available nominal indicators can be derived from the companies’ VAT data records. - It is recommended to get real output indicators like telephone call minutes, number of SMS and Gigabyte traffic, additionally. ### GDP(E) components and external accounts - For GDP(E) components, no severe gaps of quarterly data were identified. - Government consumption as well as the final consumption of Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH) are derived from output measures of public administration, education and health service and the output of NPISH. - While this is not exactly the approach recommended by the 2008 SNA, this method can be applied the same way on a quarterly basis. - Two important components of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (construction investment and equipment) are based on construction material imports and equipment imports from the BoP. - These BoP data are currently not available which poses a problem for ANA and QNA. - This problem impedes the calculation of the external sector accounts as NA exports and imports share the same definitions as BoP. *Source: 1vutea2021001 - Section 2.* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2021/english/1vutea2021001.pdf_