## 1civea2022001

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### Macroeconomic context and recent developments
- Growth and inflation:
  - GDP growth: rebounded from 2 percent in 2020 to 7 percent in 2021 (staff estimate).
  - Staff baseline growth forecast: 6.0 percent in 2022; 6.7 percent in 2023; averages close to 6½ percent over 2023-25; stabilizing around 6.0 percent in 2026–27.
  - Consumer price inflation: 5.6 percent in December 2021; declined to 4.6 percent in March (context implies 2022).
  - Annual inflation projections (annual average): 4.2 (2021 est.), 5.5 (2022), 2.3 (2023), 1.6 (2024), 1.6 (2025), 1.6 (2026), 1.9 (2027).
- External sector:
  - 2021 current account deficit: -3.8 percent of GDP (worsened from -3.2 percent in 2020).
  - Current account projected: -4.8 percent of GDP in 2022; -4.6 (2023); -4.1 (2024); -3.6 (2027).
  - Exports-to-GDP ratio declined from above 30 percent in 2010 to 21 percent in 2021.
- COVID-19 and health:
  - Total cases: 81,985; total deaths: 799 (official figures as of May 12, 2022).
  - Target population (12+): about 20 million (~70 percent of overall population).
  - At least one vaccine dose: 40 percent of target population.
  - Fully vaccinated: about 28 percent of target population.
  - Doses administered: around 12.6 million out of 21.4 million received; additional doses necessary: about 22 million; authorities expect 10 million doses by end of 2022.
  - New health threat: Dengue fever outbreak in greater Abidjan region.
- Political/security:
  - Socio-political environment improved in 2021 with peaceful return of some key opposition figures; risks remain from armed groups on the northern border.
- Recovery and fiscal response:
  - Fiscal package worth about 2.4 percent of GDP cumulatively for 2020 and 2021.
  - Growth remained positive at 2 percent in 2020 with recovery beginning 2020Q3.

### Fiscal position, revenues, and debt dynamics
- 2021 fiscal outturn and revenues:
  - Fiscal deficit: -5.1 percent of GDP in 2021 (0.5 percentage points better than authorities’ target of -5.6 percent).
  - Tax revenues: 13.1 percent of GDP in 2021 (up from an average of 11.7 percent over preceding 9 years; 12.3 percent in both 2019 and 2020).
  - Revenue gains reflected improvements in customs collection and tax administration.
- Sovereign financing and SDRs:
  - Fitch upgraded to BB- in July 2021 and reaffirmed BB- with stable outlook in late April 2022.
  - SDR allocation from the IMF in 2021 (about $884 million) used to substitute for a Eurobond planned for 2021H2.
- Debt dynamics and projections:
  - Overall debt increased by 4½ percent of GDP in 2021, mainly due to higher domestic debt (+3.4 percent of GDP).
  - Gross debt (percent of GDP): 52.1 (2021), 52.9 (2022), 52.3 (2023), 51.1 (2024), 50.4 (2025), 49.8 (2026), 49.3 (2027).
  - PV of public debt-to-GDP expected to decline from 49 (2021) to 45 percent in 2032 (DSA projection).
  - Public debt stood at 53.5 percent of GDP at end-2021 (compared with 33.3 percent in 2017).
- Debt service and risk indicators:
  - Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio projected to peak at 57.5 percent in 2024 and remain above 54 percent during the projection period.
  - PPG debt service-to-revenue (selected): 16.0 (2022), 16.7 (2023), 17.9 (2024), 17.8 (2025), 15.6 (2026), 14.3 (2027).
  - PV of PPG external debt-to-GDP: 27.2 (2022); 21.3 (2032).
  - Gross external financing need (Million US$): 5,102.4 (2022); 5,774.9 (2023); 6,113.1 (2024).
- Authorities’ targets and stance:
  - Staff baseline projects 2022 fiscal deficit about -5.3 percent of GDP; authorities project deficit could reach -5.7 percent of GDP in 2022 and converge to -3 percent by 2025 (authorities instead of 2024).
  - Reaching WAEMU deficit target of -3 percent by 2024 remains feasible under well-targeted, temporary measures (staff).

### Financial sector, credit, and SMEs access to finance (Bottlenecks)
- Aggregate credit and banking soundness:
  - Credit to private sector: around 20 percent of GDP (comparable to SSA peers); growth slowed to below 2 percent y/y in early 2020, recovered to 9.9 percent in 2021.
  - Average lending rate: 5.3 percent at end-2021 (down from 5.8 percent at end-2019).
  - NPLs: 9.7 percent in June 2021 (up 1.3 percentage points during pandemic), declined to 8.2 percent in January 2022.
  - Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets: improved from 9.7 percent at end-2019 to 11.2 percent in June 2021.
- SMEs access constraints (Box 1 findings):
  - Bank lending to SMEs accounts for less than 20 percent of total credit to businesses.
  - When SMEs borrow, interest rates around 15 percent compared with average 5.3 percent at end-2021.
  - Key bottlenecks:
    - Weak credit infrastructure and registries: land registry and RCCM digitalization not fully implemented; partial/delayed land updates and absence of formal ownership limit collateral use.
    - Credit bureau (BIC) weaknesses: incomplete and infrequently updated reporting; inconsistent client identification (homonyms, low share with national ID); borrower consent requirement limits coverage; narrow product supply (mainly solvency reports for individuals).
    - Judicial and insolvency constraints: judges often inadequately trained in business and insolvency law; legal deadlines postponed or ignored; trustees poorly trained and supervised; collective procedures ineffective.
    - Competition and fintech: non-bank entrants face limited equitable access to credit infrastructure (e.g., BIC); regulatory framework lags for fintech.
  - Proposed supply-side measures:
    - Enhance land registry and secure property rights to enlarge collateral pool.
    - Ensure comprehensive reporting of borrowers’ liabilities to BIC; address client identification problems; enforce compliance on submission of accounting records to RCCM.
    - Improve insolvency procedures: increase judges specialized in business law; strengthen trustees’ regulation and supervision.
    - Reassess guarantee fund (Fonds de Garantie des Crédits aux PME) parameters (eligibility, pricing) and provide firm-level support to overcome qualifying requirements.
- Public banks:
  - Three public banks accounted for 6.8 percent of assets, 0.7 percent of loans, and 8.2 percent of deposits of the banking system as of June 2021.
  - One undercapitalized public bank reached required solvency ratios by end-2021.
  - Remaining capitalization needs estimated at 0.3 percent of GDP; options include merging or privatizing these entities.

### Policy recommendations and structural priorities
- Fiscal and revenue policy:
  - Continue strengthening tax administration and advancing tax policy reforms.
  - Accelerate domestic revenue mobilization to rebuild buffers and finance priority spending.
  - Rationalize tax exemptions (VAT, business exemptions) and redesign PIT (simplified schedular system; eliminate specific exemptions and credits).
  - Preserve temporary, well-targeted nature of measures responding to the war in Ukraine; replace costly fuel subsidies with targeted cash transfers if further support needed.
- Public financial management and governance:
  - Strengthen PFM: advance budget reporting by line ministries, fully utilize dashboards, implement 2019 public procurement law, increase e-procurement use, address exceptional procurement procedures, and publish procurement contracts and beneficiaries.
  - Improve communication strategy to build support for fiscal reforms and regularly release domestic debt market information.
- Financial sector and inclusion:
  - Deepen financial inclusion and access to finance for SMEs.
  - Tackle deficiencies in insolvency procedures and credit infrastructure to reduce NPLs and incentivize bank lending to riskier borrowers.
  - Promptly restructure undercapitalized public banks.
  - Ensure non-bank fintech entrants have equitable access to credit infrastructure; update regulatory framework for fintech.
- Growth, diversification, and infrastructure:
  - Swift implementation of the 2021-25 NDP reforms with strong private-sector involvement; NDP aims to raise private investment by about 4 percentage points of GDP by 2025-26 (authorities’ expectation).
  - Promote agri-processing and value addition: in 2021, about one-fourth of cocoa-related exports were ground subproducts; 14 percent of cashew production processed in 2021.
  - Improve connectivity between industrial zones and ports; increase warehousing and transit capacity.
  - Electricity: authorities project consumption to increase by close to 50 percent between 2022 and 2027; about 15 percent of demand for exports to neighbor countries; recommendation to maintain electricity buffers.
- Governance and anti-corruption:
  - Strengthen asset declaration scheme (sanctions framework, verification, public access).
  - Finalize and adopt national anti-corruption strategy and enhance AML/CFT framework (including beneficial ownership requirements and terrorism financing investigations).
- Social and human capital:
  - Continue PSGouv2 social program to improve human capital, health, and female labor participation; align education and training to labor market needs; accelerate National Health Insurance Scheme enrollment.

### Risk assessment, stress tests, and debt sustainability
- Overall risk assessment:
  - Balance of risks tilted to the downside, especially near term.
  - Major external risks: escalation of war in Ukraine, rising commodity prices, tighter global financial conditions, new Covid-19 outbreaks, political instability in the Sahel, abrupt rise in BCEAO policy rates.
  - Major country-specific risks: deterioration of northern border security; financial difficulties for public enterprises and banks.
- Risk matrix highlights (selected entries):
  - Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Likelihood High; Impact High; Recommended response: increase domestic revenue mobilization and temporary targeted transfers.
  - Rising and volatile food and energy prices: Likelihood High; Impact Medium; Response: adjust retail fuel price mechanism; temporary targeted transfers; invest in diversified energy mix.
  - Natural disasters related to climate change: Likelihood Medium; Impact High; Response: targeted transfers; invest in climate-resilient agriculture; pre-arranged disaster financing.
- DSA and stress-test findings:
  - Overall risk of debt distress: Moderate, with limited space to absorb shocks.
  - Under standard DSA commodity prices stress test, PV of public debt-to-GDP would breach 55 percent threshold starting in 2025 and continue growing.
  - Tailored contingent liability shock (2% SOE + 2.3% PPP + 5% financial sector): would trigger a temporary breach of the PV of debt-to-GDP threshold for five years.
  - Most shocks would cause the debt-service-to-revenue indicator to breach thresholds starting in 2024.
  - Vulnerabilities: heavy reliance on cocoa (more than one third of exports), significant exposure to market-financing risks (EMBI spread increased to 365 bpm from 350 bpm).
- Policy implications from DSA:
  - Accelerate diversification and competitiveness-enhancing reforms.
  - Intensify revenue mobilization to build buffers for debt service.
  - Pursue prudent external borrowing; monitor concessionality and pace of disbursements; consider IFI-guaranteed commercial loans.
  - Fully integrate SOE debt in debt sustainability assessments and strengthen oversight of SOE borrowing.

### PSGouv2 social program and implementation priorities
- PSGouv2 (approved December 2021) objectives and planned investment:
  - Planned investment: about 2.3 percent of GDP across five strategic axes (2022-24).
  - Targets include: recruit more than 40,000 teachers; build nearly 7,000 classrooms; construct 12,000 social housing units in Abidjan; direct cash transfers (~54.8 euros per quarter) to 275,000 households; strengthen universal health coverage targeting enrollment of 8 million people (~28 percent of total population) by 2024.
  - Employment and youth programs: training for 250,000 youth, internships for 190,000 youth, public-sector internships targeting vulnerable groups.
- Monitoring and evaluation:
  - Establish technical coordination unit for monitoring, satisfaction surveys, impact analyses, and communication on PSGouv projects.
- Expected NDP outcomes (authorities’ expectations):
  - Boost real GDP growth from 6.5 percent in 2021 to 8.2 percent in 2025.
  - Per capita income to increase by about 30 percent over 2021-25 and double by 2030 (reach about US$3,500).
  - Create four million jobs over 2021-25; reduce poverty to 30 percent by 2025 and to less than 20 percent by 2030.

*International Monetary Fund, Côte d’Ivoire Country Report excerpt (chapter section: Bottlenecks for Access to Credit by Small and Medium Enterprises; related DSA and policy annexes).*

### 1. Bottlenecks for Access to Credit by Small and Medium Enterprises _____________________________ 28

### 1. Bottlenecks for Access to Credit by Small and Medium Enterprises _____________________________ 28

### Context and Recent Developments
- Côte d’Ivoire’s macroeconomic performance over the past decade:
  - GDP growth exceeded the average across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries by more than 4 percentage points (Fig. 1a).
  - Since 2012, inflation rates hovered nearly 8 percentage points below the average in SSA countries.
- Pre-pandemic policy and social outcomes:
  - Investment associated with the 2016-2020 National Development Plan (NDP) supported increased access to basic services and a decline in poverty rates and inequality.
  - Fiscal policy management kept debt reasonably low.
- Political and security environment:
  - Socio-political environment improved in 2021 with peaceful return of some key opposition figures.
  - Risks associated with armed groups on the northern border remain; authorities raised security spending and investment on social protection and infrastructure in underserved areas.
- COVID-19 health and vaccination status (official figures as of May 12, 2022 unless noted):
  - Total cases: 81,985; total deaths: 799.
  - Target population aged 12 years or older: about 20 million (about 70 percent of the overall population).
  - At least one vaccine dose: 40 percent of the target population.
  - Fully vaccinated: about 28 percent of the target population.
  - Doses administrated: around 12.6 million out of 21.4 million received.
  - Additional doses necessary to vaccinate target population: about 22 million; authorities expect 10 million doses by end of 2022.
  - New health threat: outbreak of Dengue fever in the greater Abidjan region.
- Authorities’ fiscal response to the pandemic:
  - Fiscal package worth about 2.4 percent of GDP cumulatively for 2020 and 2021 (tax, social security contribution, electricity bill deferrals, and spending measures).
  - Resulted in economic recovery beginning 2020Q3; growth remained positive at 2 percent in 2020.

### Economic Performance in 2021 and Price Developments
- Growth and inflation:
  - GDP growth: staff estimates rebounded from 2 percent in 2020 to 7 percent in 2021.
  - Consumer price inflation: rose above BCEAO’s target band of 1 to 3 percent since February 2021 and reached 5.6 percent in December 2021; declined to 4.6 percent in March (year not specified, context implies 2022).
- External sector and terms of trade:
  - 2021 current account deficit expected to worsen to 3.8 percent of GDP from 3.2 percent of GDP in 2020, mainly due to an increase in import prices.
  - Balance of goods expected to remain positive but less than in 2020 due to higher fuel and imports of vehicle and road transportation material.
  - Balance of services expected to deteriorate due to higher freight transportation costs linked to the global containers’ shortage.
  - Rise of commodity prices in 2022Q1, especially fuel prices, continues to affect the current account balance.

### Fiscal Position and Revenues
- Sovereign ratings and financing:
  - Fitch upgraded Côte d’Ivoire to BB- in July 2021 and reaffirmed BB- with a stable outlook in late April 2022.
  - Government issued international bonds in November 2020 and February 2021.
  - SDR allocation from the IMF in 2021 (about $884 million) used to substitute for a Eurobond issuance originally planned for 2021H2.
- Debt dynamics:
  - Overall debt increased by 4½ percent of GDP in 2021, mainly due to higher domestic debt which rose by 3.4 percent of GDP.
- Fiscal performance in 2021:
  - Fiscal deficit fell to 5.1 percent of GDP in 2021 (0.5 percentage points better than authorities’ target of 5.6 percent of GDP and the 2020 outturn of 5.6 percent of GDP).
  - Tax revenues reached 13.1 percent of GDP in 2021, up from an average of 11.7 percent over the preceding 9 years, and from 12.3 percent in both 2019 and 2020.
  - Revenue gains mainly reflect improvements in customs collection and tax administration; higher revenues more than offset higher-than-anticipated security spending and interest payments.

### Policy Measures to Contain Impact of War in Ukraine
- Fuel pricing and fiscal cost:
  - Import parity benchmark prices for gasoline and diesel increased by 53 and 68 percent respectively from January to April 2022.
  - Authorities adapted fuel pricing mechanism: gasoline prices allowed to increase by only 13 percent; diesel prices kept unchanged.
  - These fuel measures expected to carry a fiscal cost of slightly over 1 percent of GDP during 2022 (through lower tax revenues and new transfers to cover increased refinery costs).
- Food security measures (three-month measures):
  - Price caps and export permits for essential food staples.
  - Custom duty exemption on wheat.
  - Regulatory change to allow combination of wheat with other cereals for bread production.
  - Reinforcement of consumption protection practices (e.g., price posting in markets).

### Financial Sector, Credit, and Non-Performing Loans
- Credit and banking indicators:
  - Credit to the private sector slowed to below 2 percent year-on-year in early 2020 but recovered, growing by 9.9 percent in 2021.
  - Average lending rate fell to 5.3 percent at end-2021 from 5.8 percent at end-2019.
- Non-performing loans (NPLs) and solvency:
  - NPLs increased by 1.3 percentage points during the pandemic, reaching 9.7 percent in June 2021, then declined to 8.2 percent in January 2022.
  - Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets improved from 9.7 percent at end-2019 to 11.2 percent in June 2021.

### Outlook and Risks
- Near-term macro outlook (projections for 2022):
  - Growth forecast to moderate to 6 percent in 2022 due to subdued global demand, worsened terms of trade, and increased uncertainty.
  - Annual inflation expected to reach 5.5 percent in 2022 (some pass-through from global food and fuel prices).
  - Current account deficit projected to deteriorate further to 4.8 percent of GDP in 2022 (about 0.6 percentage points due to rising international oil and food prices).
- Medium-term projections (2023–27 and selected indicators from Text Table 1):
  - Growth expected to average close to 6½ percent over 2023-25, then stabilize around 6 percent over the medium term (2026–27).
  - Inflation projections (annual average): 4.2 (2021 est.), 5.5 (2022), 2.3 (2023), 1.6 (2024), 1.6 (2025), 1.6 (2026), 1.9 (2027).
  - Real GDP growth (Est./Proj.): 7.0 (2021), 6.0 (2022), 6.7 (2023), 6.4 (2024), 6.2 (2025), 6.0 (2026), 6.0 (2027).
  - Central government overall balance, incl. grants (percent of GDP): -5.1 (2021), -5.3 (2022), -4.0 (2023), -3.0 (2024), -3.0 (2025), -3.0 (2026), -3.0 (2027).
  - Primary basic balance (percent of GDP): -1.1 (2021), -2.1 (2022), -0.2 (2023), 0.9 (2024), 0.9 (2025), 0.9 (2026), 0.9 (2027).
  - Gross debt (percent of GDP): 52.1 (2021), 52.9 (2022), 52.3 (2023), 51.1 (2024), 50.4 (2025), 49.8 (2026), 49.3 (2027).
  - Current account balance (including official transfers, percent of GDP): -3.8 (2021), -4.8 (2022), -4.6 (2023), -4.1 (2024), -3.9 (2025), -3.7 (2026), -3.6 (2027).
  - Current account balance (excluding official transfers): -4.2 (2021), -5.3 (2022), -5.0 (2023), -4.5 (2024), -4.2 (2025), -4.0 (2026), -3.9 (2027).
  - Overall balance (percent of GDP): 3.3 (2021), 0.9 (2022), 0.6 (2023), 0.7 (2024), 0.6 (2025), 0.8 (2026), 0.8 (2027).
  - Projection assumptions: Only phase I of the recent oil and gas discovery is assumed.
- Risk assessment:
  - Balance of risks tilted to the downside, especially near term.
  - Near-term negative external risks: escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe, weaker external demand, higher and volatile commodity prices, volatility in financial markets, tighter global financial conditions, new Covid-19 outbreaks given low vaccination rates, worsening political situation in the Sahel region, persistent domestic inflation, abrupt rise in BCEAO policy rates.
  - Medium-term upside domestic risks: significant oil and gas reserves discovered in 2021 (ENI estimates possible additional reserves at 1.5 to 2.0 billion barrels of oil compared to 8.8 million barrels extracted in 2021); first phase of project should start in 2023, with significant production increase in a second phase that could start in 2026 but has not been confirmed; resolute implementation of the NDP reforms may attract more private investment and improve growth prospects.

*International Monetary Fund, Côte d’Ivoire Country Report content (chapter section: Bottlenecks for Access to Credit by Small and Medium Enterprises).*

### 13.      The authorities viewed staff growth projections as too conservative, but concurred

### 13.      The authorities viewed staff growth projections as too conservative, but concurred 

### Growth projections and risks
- Authorities’ growth projections:
  - 6.9 percent in 2022 (slightly down from their estimate of 7.4 percent in 2021).
  - An average of 7.2 percent over 2023-27.
- Staff baseline projections:
  - Only include phase I of new oil and gas developments; together with investment delays in other fields this “implies broadly unchanged extraction volumes over 2022-25 compared to the 2021 Article IV.”
- Differences between authorities and staff over 2023-27:
  - Mostly due to a larger contribution from investment (by more the 1 percentage point per year, on average).
- Risk assessment:
  - Authorities concurred with the presence of external downside risks, including potential near-term impacts on food security if external risks worsen.
  - Authorities also noted considerable medium-term upside risk from substantial new oil and gas discoveries not yet (apart from phase I) included in projections.

### Safeguarding fiscal sustainability
- Recommended principles for fiscal measures responding to the war in Ukraine:
  - Measures should be transparent, temporary, and well-targeted.
  - Costly fuel price measures are regressive and should be gradually scaled back; if further support is needed, replace fuel subsidies with temporary, well-targeted cash transfers to the most vulnerable.
- 2022 fiscal stance and staff baseline:
  - Staff baseline projects a 2022 fiscal deficit of about 5.3 percent of GDP, a ½ percent wider than in the 2022 budget.
  - Fall in petrol revenues collected and increase in petrol subsidies estimated to amount to slightly over 1 percent of GDP.
  - Other subsidies and transfers, and increased security spending, expected to amount to about ½ percent of GDP.
  - To contain the worsening of the deficit to ½ percent of GDP would require compressing capital expenditure by about ½ percent of GDP compared to the 2022 budget.
  - Staff consider financing the additional deficit feasible, notably via domestic financing.
- WAEMU target and authorities’ plans:
  - Reaching the WAEMU deficit target of 3 percent by 2024 remains feasible under well-targeted, temporary measures.
  - Authorities’ view: deficit could reach 5.7 percent of GDP in 2022 and might converge to 3 percent by 2025 (instead of 2024).
  - Authorities project higher capital spending than staff by about ¾ percent of GDP in 2022 and over 1 percent of GDP in 2023-24.
  - Authorities expect the deficit to be higher than staff by about ½ to 1 percent of GDP a year over 2022-24; their fiscal plan relies on higher revenues from higher growth and additional local market borrowing.
- Debt outlook:
  - Under staff projections, public debt increased from 47.6 to 52.1 percent of GDP over 2020-21.
  - Debt projected to be on a downward path over the medium term but remain higher than pre-crisis projections.
  - Exchange rate depreciation and reclassification of BOAD loans from domestic to external bring the external debt service-to-revenue ratio close to the threshold in 2024 and 2025.
  - Risk of debt distress expected to remain moderate but with limited space to absorb shocks.

### Building fiscal space, revenue mobilization, and PFM
- Fiscal priorities:
  - Build fiscal space to finance critical spending, support inclusive growth, and enhance macroeconomic resilience.
  - Prioritize resources to improve public service provisions to meet SDGs; NDP reforms and PSGouv2 require significant resources.
- Revenue performance and measures:
  - Property tax revenue rose by 12 percent in 2021 following an inventory of taxable land plots started in 2019.
  - Electronic land register increased revenue by about 0.1 percent of GDP over 2018-21.
  - Tax revenue increased to 13.1 percent of GDP in 2021 from about 11.7 percent of GDP in the preceding nine years.
- Proposed tax policy reforms and measures:
  - Eliminate VAT exemptions on sectors such as agribusiness, transportation, and construction; streamline reduced VAT rates while applying statutory VAT rates; where necessary replace with well-targeted cash transfers.
  - Accelerate elimination of discretionary business exemptions and exemptions arising from the investment code.
  - Redesign and simplify the PIT regime by adopting a simplified schedular system applied to wages, salaries, profits and income from mobile capital and real estate; eliminate exemptions and credits such as the general deductions (abattement forfaitaire) and family allowance (quotient familial).
  - Further modernize tax and customs administration: consolidate a binding VAT threshold, fully dematerialize customs clearance procedures, increase compliance with electronic tax payments, and fully implement a single taxpayer identification number.
- Public financial management and governance:
  - Continue strengthening PFM: advance budget reporting commitments by line ministries, fully utilize dashboards and monitoring tools, and implement the 2019 public procurement law to increase e-procurement utilization.
  - Address use of exceptional procurement procedures and pursue full transparency on procurement contracts, beneficiaries, and audits.
  - Improve communication strategy to build broad-based support for fiscal reforms and regularly release market information on domestic debt.
- Authorities’ stance:
  - Agree on continuing to increase domestic revenue mobilization via tax administration and digitalization.
  - Special task force at the Office of the Prime Minister to review options for increasing fiscal revenues; authorities welcome IMF technical assistance.
  - Measures to rationalize expenditure include reduction in the size of government that took office on April 20, 2022.
  - Authorities monitoring concessionality and sources of new borrowing, and expressed concern about reclassification of BOAD debt from domestic to external.

### Transforming the economy: industrialization, diversification, and infrastructure
- National Development Plan (NDP) and investment:
  - New NDP approved December 2021 covering 2021-25 to deliver higher inclusive growth via industrialization, human capital, productivity, and governance.
  - Authorities expect private investment will increase by about 4 percentage points of GDP by 2025-26.
- Export diversification and agri-processing:
  - Côte d’Ivoire’s goods export structure remains concentrated; scope to move up the value chain by processing cocoa, cashew nuts, natural rubber, and cotton.
  - In 2021, about one-fourth of cocoa-related exports were ground subproducts; 14 percent of cashew production was processed in 2021.
  - Agri-business industries hire a larger share of unskilled workers than other industries.
- Infrastructure and industrial zones:
  - Planned industrial zones to ease bottlenecks; private sector should play an important role subject to transparency and governance; fiscal incentives should be constrained to the tax code.
  - Need to improve connectivity between industrial zones and ports and availability of warehousing and transit to ease exporter bottlenecks.
- Electricity sector and industrialization:
  - Access to electricity is higher than peers; production cost among the lowest in West Africa.
  - Sector vulnerable to supply shocks (electricity rationing to industrial plants in H12021).
  - Authorities project electricity consumption will increase by close to 50 percent between 2022 and 2027; about 15 percent of demand expected to be for exports to neighbor countries.
  - Ongoing and planned projects imply a commensurate increase in installed production capacity, with about ¼ already expected in 2022.
  - Recommendation: continue to generate sufficient electricity buffers given rapidly rising demand.

*IMF Country Report excerpt.*

### 32.      Ongoing efforts to improve the business climate improvements should be further

### Ongoing efforts to improve the business climate improvements should be further strengthened

### Business climate, property rights, and public administration
- Weaknesses in the regulatory framework and property rights protection, as well as uncertainty on the timing of government contract payables, remain key obstacles for the private sector and increase the risk of corruption.
- Recent significant progress in the digitalization of public services, as well as upgrading procurement and administrative procedures, should help reduce government payment arrears.
- The new system to uniquely identify firms should reduce administrative burden but its implementation is still incomplete.
- Ongoing improvements in the cadaster will aid business creation and formalization, but more progress is needed to ensure clear property rights.
- Efforts to streamline bureaucracy are ongoing, including the establishment of a single-stop shop for international trade, which should facilitate export diversification and reduce the cost of border handling procedures (World Bank 2022).
- Strengthened communication is needed to inform the private sector of innovations and improvements affecting the business climate.

### Governance and anti-corruption
- The High Authority for Good Governance (HABG) has been strengthening its monitoring capacity of asset declarations from public officials, including through digitalization; asset declaration cases recorded by HABG tripled in 2021.
- Asset declaration compliance was 79 percent at end-2021, though a framework for sanctions is needed along with efforts to enhance verification and public access to information on asset declarations.
- Activities of Covid-support funds are regularly published and have been subject to internal audits.
- Audits of over 40 state-owned enterprises have resulted in leadership dismissals at some of those entities due to mismanagement.
- Staff encouraged the authorities to promptly finalize and adopt the national strategy to fight corruption while ensuring buy-in from key stakeholders.

### AML/CFT framework
- The national AML/CFT strategy for 2020-30 is being implemented, and preparations for the IMF-led AML/CFT assessment are underway.
- Staff advised the authorities to make significant progress on priority reforms including:
  - requirements to identify beneficial ownership of clients who are legal persons by financial institutions;
  - reinforcing efforts to investigate and prosecute terrorism financing offenses and activities;
  - implementing preventive measures in line with the country’s evolving terrorism financing risk profile.

### PSGouv2 social program: human capital, health, and female labor participation
- PSGouv2 should support higher and more inclusive growth through improvements in human capital, access to health services, and female labor participation.
- Education:
  - While education attainment has increased, completion rates and education outcomes have lagged SSA peers (World Bank, 2018; IMF Country Report No. 21/171).
  - Plans to recruit teachers and improve infrastructure in rural areas (Annex VI) should improve student-teacher ratios, broaden access, and promote inclusion.
  - Recommendations: anchor teachers’ appraisals to student performance, promote continuous teacher training, enhance access to technical and vocational training, internship programs, and adult digital literacy training, and consult regularly with businesses to align curricula with labor market demand.
- Health:
  - Ongoing efforts to enhance access to health care (additional construction of health centers and exploratory development of telemedicine) and broaden training of doctors and nurses are welcome.
  - Despite the introduction of a universal health care system in 2014, limited access and high out-of-pocket costs for the most vulnerable contribute to relatively poor health outcomes, as evidenced by the still-high infant mortality rate.
  - Authorities need to improve incentives and simplify requirements to boost enrollment in the National Health Insurance Scheme, in line with PSGouv2 targets.
- Female labor participation:
  - PSGouv2 initiatives to enhance women autonomy, reduce school dropout, and promote socioeconomic and professional inclusion of young women are welcome.
  - These initiatives should help increase female labor participation, which is still low compared to peers, and reduce gender inequality.

### Financial inclusion, SMEs, and credit constraints
- Credit to the private sector is still low, with SMEs particularly underserved, due to weak credit infrastructure and credit information systems, as well as regulatory and legal deficiencies.
- Recommendations to improve SME access to finance:
  - Continue to enhance the land registry and secure property rights to increase the pool of eligible collateral.
  - Ensure comprehensive reporting of borrowers’ liabilities to the credit information system (Bureau d’Information sur le Crédit, BIC), address problems to uniquely identify clients, and enforce compliance regarding submission of accounting records to the corporate registry.
  - Improve insolvency procedures to expedite recovery of claims by:
    - increasing the number of judges specialized on business law;
    - strengthening the regulation and supervision of trustees.
  - A recently created guarantee fund (Fonds de Garantie des Crédits aux PME) can help channel credit to SMEs, but firms need dedicated support to overcome qualifying requirements, and scheme parameters—including eligibility and pricing—may need reassessment to ensure appeal to banks.

### Public banks and banking sector resilience
- Finalizing the restructuring of undercapitalized public banks should improve the banking sector’s ability to support private sector development.
- One of the three public banks (altogether accounting for 6.8 percent of assets, 0.7 percent of loans, and 8.2 percent of deposits of the banking system) that were in breach of capital requirements as of June 2021 reached the required solvency ratios by end-2021.
- The authorities should step up efforts to finalize the restructuring of the other two public banks (with overall capitalization needs estimated at 0.3 percent of GDP) as soon as possible, including considering options for merging or privatizing these entities.
- Staff view: improving insolvency frameworks and reporting to BIC would help reduce NPLs and incentivize banks to lend to riskier borrowers, including SMEs.

### Agriculture productivity, diversification, and rural development
- Agriculture accounts for about 20 percent of the Ivorian economy and employs more than half of its workforce, yet productivity is relatively low compared to peers and has remained stagnant.
- Productivity dispersion across producers points to significant potential for improvement; the net value of production for farmers in the 75th percentile is three to four times higher than for those in the 25th percentile (World Bank, 2018).
- Constraints and gaps:
  - Consumption of fertilizers and use of mechanization are about half the SSA average.
  - Proportion of land under irrigation is about one-sixth of the share in peer countries.
  - About 40 percent of farmers only produce export-oriented cash crops.
  - Only ¼ of Ivorian rural households combine agriculture and non-agriculture activities, against 60 percent in countries like Thailand and Vietnam (World Bank, 2019).
  - About two-thirds of farmers do not have a land title and, among those who have, only one-third has an official document.
- Policy priorities:
  - Improve property and land tenure rights to boost investment incentives and access to finance.
  - Improve access to basic education and specialized training in rural areas.
  - Devote more resources to agricultural research and development, which is low compared to peers.
  - Increase productivity in export-oriented cash crops (e.g., cocoa and cotton) to enable diversification into higher-value products and raise resilience of rural incomes.

### Climate change, deforestation, and energy transition
- Durable resilience requires addressing deforestation and making policy room for investment in climate adaptation.
- Progress has been made in enhancing traceability of sustainable farming products (notably cocoa), but more efforts are needed in anticipation of import restrictions linked to forest degradation and child labor.
- Authorities’ objectives:
  - Shift the energy matrix from a 30 percent share for renewable energy in 2021 to 45 percent by 2030.
  - Reduce CO2 emissions from 0.49 metric tonnes per capita to 0.37 by 2025.
- Planned reforms and actions:
  - Update the environmental code, introduce an environmental tax mechanism, implement a carbon market, participate in international climate adaptation and resilience funds.
  - Host COP15 on desertification in Abidjan in May 2022 and utilize green-financing to combat deforestation.
- Staff view: these objectives are welcome and achievable given existing capacity and planned investment in hydro-electric power and other renewable sources.

### Authorities’ views
- Authorities emphasized sustaining efforts on structural reforms, governance, and fighting corruption to unlock private-sector led growth.
- Principal pillars of the 2030 strategy include increasing the role of the private sector in key infrastructure and providing a level-playing field.
- Authorities noted plans to increase value-added content of commodity exports (e.g., setting up a cashew-processing research and training center) and support commodity processing plants to obtain international certifications.
- On electricity, authorities stressed the importance of resilience to supply shocks and noted a new backup thermal plant and further reduction in distribution losses provide ample buffers.
- On finance and insolvency, authorities concurred that enhancing property rights and addressing credit information and insolvency deficiencies can help boost credit and reduce NPLs; they highlighted that adoption of Basel III regulation should allow resumption of the pre-pandemic downward NPL trend and that ongoing initiatives should improve BIC effectiveness.
- On agriculture and climate, authorities emphasized increasing agricultural productivity, recent decree securing forestry rights for farmers, hosting COP15, and launching the “Abidjan Legacy Program” to increase food production, create rural jobs for unemployed youth, and improve wellbeing of rural women.
- Authorities expressed confidence that PSGouv2 initiatives will improve basic education quality and employability of the most vulnerable, including youth and women.

### Post-financing assessment: liquidity, solvency, and debt dynamics
- Côte d'Ivoire’s capacity to repay the Fund remains adequate overall and external debt is projected to stay on a downward trajectory; the debt risk and gross financing needs remain moderate.
- Market access remains sound despite global financial tightening; regional market conditions remain liquid and sovereign yields have declined.
- The Fund’s exposure stands at 3 percent of GDP in 2022 and is projected to fall sharply below 1 percent by 2025.
- Total debt service to the Fund would reach 1 percent of total exports (around 0.3 percent of GDP) in 2022 and peak at 2.8 percent of exports (0.6 percent of GDP) in 2024 before declining consistently.
- Côte d’Ivoire is projected to stay current on Fund obligations under the baseline; traditional measures point to adequate WAEMU reserves.
- Risk of debt distress remains moderate, but capacity to absorb additional shocks is limited:
  - The PV of public debt-to-GDP is expected to decline gradually from 49 in 2021 to 45 percent in 2032.
  - The debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio is projected to peak at 57.5 percent in 2024 and remain above 54 percent during the projection period.
- Stress tests indicate vulnerability to a shock to commodity prices: under the standard DSA commodity prices stress test, the PV of public debt-to-GDP would breach its corresponding threshold of 55 percent starting in 2025 and continue growing afterwards, underlining the need to build resilience through greater competitiveness and economic diversification.

*International Monetary Fund — Côte d’Ivoire country report content excerpt*

### 47.      Risks to capacity to repay the Fund mainly stem from the fiscal sector, as well as

### 1civea2022001 - 47.      Risks to capacity to repay the Fund mainly stem from the fiscal sector, as well as

### Risks to capacity to repay the Fund
- Risks mainly stem from the fiscal sector and potential external shocks.
- Côte d'Ivoire’s relatively high debt service-to-revenue ratio poses some risks, and the space to absorb shocks is limited.21
- Debt dynamics are vulnerable to several potential shocks identified in the RAM, including:
  - economic and political disruptions;
  - higher volatility in commodity prices and financial markets;
  - adverse effects on external demand and access to international borrowing.
- Comparison with peers suggests higher-than-average repayment pressures, particularly in 2023/24.

### Authorities’ views
- The authorities concurred with staff on this assessment and indicated a strong commitment to honor the debt, which they say is backed by adequate capacity to repay the Fund.
- Authorities have fully discussed risks to public finance and the associated risk management strategy in their budget statement.
- Authorities highlighted policy priorities:
  - continuing domestic revenue mobilization;
  - seeking concessional financing;
  - control of exchange rate risk;
  - active debt management.

### Staff appraisal — macroeconomic outlook and risks
- A swift and well-designed policy response, underpinned by strong macroeconomic policies over the past decade, helped contain the economic cost of the Covid-19 pandemic, but the war in Ukraine has clouded the outlook.
- Projections and near-term outlook:
  - Growth is expected to slow to 6 percent this year amid worsening terms of trade, weaker external demand, and heightened uncertainty.
  - Inflation is expected to increase further and reach 5.5 percent this year on the back of surging global food and oil prices.
  - The current account is projected to reach 4.8 percent of GDP.
- Near-term external risks are tilted to the downside, related to:
  - repercussions from the war in Ukraine;
  - tighter global financial conditions;
  - political instability in the region.
- Offsetting factors for medium-term prospects:
  - newly discovered oil and gas reserves;
  - swift implementation of the authorities’ reform agenda.

### Fiscal performance and debt outlook
- 2021 fiscal outturn:
  - Revenue increased significantly in 2021 due to tax administration reforms, including digitalization efforts.
  - The 2021 fiscal deficit outturn was 5.1 percent of GDP, better than anticipated by ½ percent of GDP, despite higher security spending.
- Recent measures in response to the war in Ukraine:
  - Should remain temporary and become increasingly targeted to the most vulnerable if the shock proves persistent.
  - Newly introduced measures should avoid creating market distortions.
- Fiscal targets and trade-offs:
  - While a moderately higher-than-budgeted deficit is warranted to accommodate emergency measures, reaching the WAEMU deficit target of 3 percent in 2024 remains feasible.
  - Authorities will need to balance urgent spending pressures and preserving fiscal space; they may need to contain the ambitious public investment agenda.
- Debt dynamics and risks:
  - Debt is expected to peak in 2022 on the back of three years of expansionary fiscal policy.
  - The debt-service to revenue ratio is close to the high-risk threshold in 2024 and 2025, underscoring the importance of accelerating domestic revenue mobilization.

### Policy recommendations and structural priorities
- Fiscal and revenue policy:
  - Continue strengthening tax administration and advancing tax policy reforms.
  - Accelerate domestic revenue mobilization to rebuild fiscal buffers and finance priority spending.
  - Rationalize tax exemptions in both the VAT and business taxation once global inflationary pressures dissipate.
  - Redesign and simplify the PIT regime to improve progressivity.
- Social and human capital policies:
  - Continue the new social program to improve human capital accumulation.
  - Improve the quality of basic education and professional training to ease skills mismatch.
  - Accelerate enrollment in the National Health Insurance Scheme to improve equitable access to health care.
- Growth and private sector development:
  - Sustain efforts to improve the business climate, tackle infrastructure bottlenecks, strengthen regulatory frameworks, enhance protection of land tenure and property rights, and streamline bureaucracy.
  - Swift implementation of the 2021-25 NDP reforms and strong private sector involvement to focus efforts and contain fiscal costs.
- Financial sector and inclusion:
  - Deepen financial inclusion and access to finance.
  - Tackle deficiencies in insolvency procedures and credit infrastructure to improve banks’ risk screening and access to credit for SMEs and reduce NPLs.
  - Promptly restructure undercapitalized public banks to improve banking sector capacity to support growth.
- Governance and anti-corruption:
  - Strengthen the asset declaration scheme for public officials by setting a sanctions framework and enhancing public access to information on asset declarations.
  - Finalize and adopt the national strategy to fight corruption and enhance the AML/CFT framework.
- Risk management and external financing:
  - Active risk control and debt management.
  - Seek durable access to international and regional bond markets and potential additional financing from IFIs and other donors.

### Data, surveillance, and administrative recommendations
- Data provision is broadly adequate for surveillance, but dissemination should be enhanced.
- Efforts should be stepped up to align methodology of quarterly and annual national accounts data and to improve the timeliness of their publication.
- Staff recommends that the next Article IV consultation for Cote d'Ivoire be held on the standard 12-month cycle.

*Source: IMF staff report (excerpts).*

### Box 1. Bottlenecks for Access to Credit by Small and Medium Enterprises

### Box 1. Bottlenecks for Access to Credit by Small and Medium Enterprises

### Overview
- Access to credit, especially by poor for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), remains a key obstacle to Côte d’Ivoire’ development.
- Domestic credit to the private sector, at around 20 percent of GDP, is comparable to levels prevailing in SSA peers, but much lower than in emerging market economies.
- Banks are particularly reluctant to lend to SMEs because obtaining effective guarantees and reliable information on their financial situation is perceived to be more difficult.
- Bank lending to SMEs accounts for less than 20 percent of total credit to businesses.
- When SMEs do borrow, they pay high interest rates (about 15 percent), compared to an average of 5.3 percent at end-2021.

### Credit infrastructure and registries
- Digitalization of the land and the corporate registry (Registre du Commerce et du Crédit Mobilier, RCCM) have not been fully implemented.
- Weaknesses in the land registry:
  - Partial or delayed updates.
  - Absence of formal ownership.
  - These weaknesses are particularly detrimental for SMEs’ ability to offer collateral for bank lending.
- SMEs in the formal sector do not always comply with obligations to submit accounting records to the RCCM on a regular basis, limiting RCCM’s relevance.

### Credit bureau (BIC) data quality and coverage
- The WAEMU’s credit bureau (Bureau d’Information sur le Crédit, BIC) has collected information on credit and payment history since 2016 from banks, public sources, and large billers (e.g., utility companies).
- Important weaknesses in data quality and coverage:
  - Data submitted by financial institutions is not comprehensive enough nor updated at a regular frequency, including on changes in loan conditions.
  - The system lacks consistent identification of clients due to:
    - Use of homonyms.
    - Small share of the population with national identification document.
    - Lack of access to the identification system by banks.
  - Financial institutions need prior consent of the borrower to submit their information to the BIC, often resulting in an incomplete record of borrowers’ outstanding debts.
  - The supply of products provided by the BIC is relatively narrow, mostly consisting of solvency report of individuals, due to limited reporting of corporate credit data by financial institutions.
- Authorities’ planned information campaign to ensure the public is conscious of the advantages of providing consent should help improve coverage.

### Regulatory environment and judicial system constraints
- Deficiencies in the regulatory environment and the judicial system affect the recovery of claims, dissuading banks from lending to riskier borrowers.
- Judicial shortcomings:
  - Judges are often inadequately trained in business and insolvency law, resulting in failure to appropriately apply legal rules.
  - Legal (and even mandatory) deadlines are postponed or ignored in practice, sometimes for dilatory purposes.
  - Implementation of collective procedures is deemed ineffective; banks rely more on individual negotiations, which can be less efficient.
- Statute of trustees:
  - Côte d’Ivoire has a specific national regulation regarding the statute of trustees, who are key to the proper operation of the insolvency system.
  - Trustees are poorly trained, regulated, and supervised, and their incentives are not necessarily aligned with a swift resolution of collective procedures.

### Competition, fintech, and access by non-traditional players
- Financial intermediation is affected by limitations to competition from non-traditional players.
- The banking sector concentration is not deemed excessive, but the financial sector remains dominated by banks.
- Digital technologies have encouraged financial innovation and the emergence of non-bank participants, widening access to financial services for traditionally underserved segments.
- Challenges for new entrants:
  - New entrants do not always have equitable access to the credit infrastructure (e.g., to the BIC).
  - The regulatory framework has yet to catch up (e.g., by developing regulations for financial technology—fintech—companies).

*Source: Box 1. Bottlenecks for Access to Credit by Small and Medium Enterprises (from the provided IMF content).*

### Annex I. Risk Assessment Matrix

### 1civea2022001 - Annex I. Risk Assessment Matrix

### Major external risks, likelihood, impact, and recommended policy responses
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine leads to escalation of sanctions and other disruptions  
  - Likelihood: High  
  - Impact if Realized: High — Even higher commodity prices, refugee migration, tighter financial conditions, and other adverse spillovers could weigh on economic outlook, deplete fiscal resources, increase poverty and lead to social tensions.  
  - Recommended Policy Response: Advance reforms to increase domestic revenue mobilization to create fiscal space for support measures. Mitigate the impact on the poor from volatile commodity prices through temporary targeted fiscal transfers.

- Rising and volatile food and energy prices  
  - Likelihood: High  
  - Impact if Realized: Medium — Large increases in global energy prices could lower fiscal revenues if price changes are not passed through to consumers, while higher domestic energy prices would raise production costs and general prices. Higher commodity prices would reduce disposable income of households, exacerbating poverty.  
  - Recommended Policy Response: Adjust the retail fuel price mechanism to reflect world energy prices and monitor inflation. Mitigate the impact on the poor through temporary targeted fiscal transfers. Invest in a more diversified and sustainable energy mix.

- Widespread social discontent and political instability  
  - Likelihood: High  
  - Impact if Realized: High — Social discontent and political instability could lower trade flows, reduce exports and FDI, and negatively affect growth and tax revenue.  
  - Recommended Policy Response: Continue policy reforms to alleviate poverty, create jobs, and generate more inclusive growth outcomes, while continuing to enhance the provision of public services.

- Outbreaks of lethal and highly contagious Covid-19 variants  
  - Likelihood: Medium  
  - Impact if Realized: High — Limited access to vaccines and a more protracted outbreaks could reduce growth, worsen the external and fiscal positions, increase debt vulnerabilities, and poverty.  
  - Recommended Policy Response: Reintroduce containment and mitigation measures; reintroduce support to affected firms and households; step-up efforts to vaccinate the population.

- De-anchoring of inflation expectations in the U.S. and/or advanced European economies  
  - Likelihood: Medium  
  - Impact if Realized: High — Tightening global financial conditions and spiking risk premia would raise borrowing costs and increase debt vulnerabilities, with knock-on effects on growth. Could result in financial difficulties for SMEs and state-owned enterprises, disrupt progress on increasing financial access and deepening, and affect food security.  
  - Recommended Policy Response: Advance reforms to increase domestic revenue mobilization to create room for a likely increase in food prices. Provide targeted support to vulnerable population. Monitor solvency of state-owned enterprises and government guaranteed debt (including for SME access to credit programs), and develop a bank resolution framework.

- Cyberthreats  
  - Likelihood: Medium  
  - Impact if Realized: Medium — Successful cyber-attacks on the financial system could disrupt delivery of critical services, payment systems, and precipitate damaging economic disruptions and reputational damage.  
  - Recommended Policy Response: Develop response and recovery strategies including “cyber mapping” to identify technologies, services and institutions that would be most affected. Incorporate cyber risks into financial stability analysis and stress tests.

- Natural disasters related to climate change  
  - Likelihood: Medium  
  - Impact if Realized: High — Adverse weather conditions would reduce agricultural output and exports, lower cocoa tax revenues, increase subsidy needs, and reduce living standards.  
  - Recommended Policy Response: Mitigate the impact on the poor through temporary targeted fiscal transfers. Monitor second-round effects on inflation. Invest in education and training of farmers in sustainable and climate-resilient agricultural practices and examine scope for increasing pre-arranged disaster financing (climate risk insurance).

### Major country-specific risks, likelihood, impact, and recommended policy responses
- Deterioration of security situation in northern border  
  - Likelihood: High  
  - Impact if Realized: Medium/High — Spillovers from tensions in the Sahel area put pressure on fiscal expenditure to increase security spending and could have adverse socio-economic effects.  
  - Recommended Policy Response: Promote security, strengthen social safety nets, and facilitate job creation in the private sector. Create fiscal space by accelerating revenue mobilization reforms.

- Financial difficulties for public enterprises and banks  
  - Likelihood: Medium  
  - Impact if Realized: Low/Medium — In the context of the COVID crisis, financial difficulties of public enterprises and/or banks could adversely impact the budget, the stock of public debt and the banking sector.  
  - Recommended Policy Response: Restructure loss-making public companies; enhance monitoring of public enterprises; recapitalize and restructure ailing public banks. Develop bank resolution framework.

---

### Status of 2021 Article IV Main Recommendations — summary of implementation (Annex II)
- Fiscal sector recommendations (1–6) — Status: Partially implemented (detailed points):  
  - 1. Contain the increase in the fiscal deficit in 2021 — Partially implemented. Revenue performance in 2021 was strong, but revenue windfall was not saved due to increased security-related spending.  
  - 2. Extend coverage of safety nets and develop a registry of beneficiaries — Partially implemented. Government campaign underway to identify self-employed workers; registry to leverage 2021 census.  
  - 3. Spell out measures underpinning the 2021-25 National Development Plan and budgetary implications — Partially implemented. Authorities elaborated new social program PSGouv2 to be implemented starting in 2022.  
  - 4. Rationalize tax expenditures, broaden tax base, strengthen tax administration — Partially implemented. Action plan 2020–2023 in place; digitalization of tax filing/payment introduced; strategic reform plan adopted based on 2021 TADAT.  
  - 5. Increase public spending efficiency and deploy e-procurement — Partially implemented. E-Procurement module deployed, utilization remains limited.  
  - 6. Enhance fiscal transparency (publish procurement contracts, beneficial ownership, audits) — Partially implemented. Procurement contracts published but beneficial ownership and audits not yet available.

- Real sector recommendations (7–8) — Status: Partially/Partly implemented:  
  - 7. Improve business environment and fight corruption (digitalization, single-stop shop, single tax ID, land rights, labor markets, financial inclusion) — Partially implemented. Decree in January 2022 to operationalize single-stop shop; ministry for national anticorruption strategy; use of drones for land registration.  
  - 8. Address gender inequality and violence against women — Partly implemented. PSGouv2 includes program to enhance women autonomy, food support to avoid girl school dropout, subsidies to promote socio-economic and professional inclusion of young women.

- Banking sector recommendation (9) — Status: Partially implemented. Restructuring plans for public banks ongoing but slowed by pandemic; strong supervision maintained.

- Sustainable agricultural development and climate policies (10) — Status: Partially implemented. Initiative to enhance traceability in coffee and cocoa supply chain being prepared; national census concluded to identify cocoa producers; ID cards being issued to farmers to track beans.

- Statistics (11) — Status: Partially implemented. National accounts rebased for 2015-19, new high frequency indicators (HFIs) produced, National Statistics Development Strategy (SNDS) elaborated. Backcasting before 2015, alignment of quarterly NA, production of some HFIs delayed; SNDS implementation and publication of 2020 national accounts estimates delayed.

---

### External Sector Assessment (Annex III) — key findings, projections, and policy implications
- Overall assessment: Côte d’Ivoire’s external position in 2021 was assessed to be broadly in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. The current account (CA) gap is estimated at 0.9 percent.

- Current account dynamics and projections:  
  - 2021 current account deficit: 3.8 percent (widened from 3.2 percent in 2020).  
  - Staff projects the current account deficit to hover around 4 percent of GDP over the medium term.  
  - Since mid-2010s, nominal GDP has been increasing more rapidly than exports and imports, implying an increasingly important contribution of domestic demand to growth.

- Model-based assessment (EBA-lite CA and REER models) — Côte d’Ivoire: Model Estimates for 2021 (percent of GDP and related parameters):  
  - CA-Actual: -3.8  
  - Cyclical contributions (from model): (-)-0.3  
  - COVID-19 adjustor (+) 1/: -0.1  
  - Additional temporary/statistical factors (+): 0.0  
  - Natural disasters and conflicts (-): -0.1  
  - Adjusted CA: -3.5  
  - CA Norm (from model) 2/: -4.5  
  - Adjusted CA Norm: -4.5  
  - CA Gap: 0.9 0.0  
  - o/w Relative policy gap: 2.6  
  - Elasticity: -0.17  
  - REER Gap (in percent): -5.7 0.0

- Real Exchange Rate (REER) observations:  
  - CFAF real terms change 2010-2019: depreciated by 11.6 percent (due to nominal depreciation of the Euro against the USD combined with low inflation in CIV compared to trading partners).  
  - Past two years (to 2021): CFAF appreciated by 7.1 percent reflecting nominal exchange rate movements of the Euro vis-à-vis the USD and inflation differences from trading partners.  
  - REER model suggests no exchange rate misalignment; combined CA and REER estimates indicate external sector broadly in line with fundamentals.

- Capital and financial account flows:  
  - Current account deficit largely financed by debt financing.  
  - Portfolio and other net investment net inflows: 5.6 percent of GDP (reflecting government borrowing including IFI loans and Euro-bond issuances).  
  - FDI net inflows: 1.1 percent of GDP.  
  - SDR allocation was used to substitute for a Eurobond issuance originally planned for 2021H2.

- Reserve adequacy:  
  - WAEMU pooled reserves reached an estimated level of $24 billion (5.8 months of imports) by end-2021.  
  - A metric-based approach (ARA) suggests end-2021 reserves and the medium-term projection are assessed to be adequate.  
  - Policy implication: Growth-friendly fiscal consolidation and implementation of structural reforms will be key to maintaining reserves within the estimated optimal range.

- Trade performance and competitiveness:  
  - Exports to GDP ratio: declined from above 30 percent in 2010 to 21 percent in 2021.  
  - Composition shift: exports of primary products increased from just below 60 percent of total exports to close to 70 percent over the last five years.  
  - Côte d’Ivoire is the largest cocoa producer in the world (accounting for more than 40 percent of world production).  
  - Côte d’Ivoire receives only 5-7 percent of the profit generated by the cocoa sector globally.  
  - Limited domestic value added in other crops; dominance of cocoa increases vulnerability to climate change, underscoring need for agricultural diversification.  
  - Growth potential: agriculture, agri-processing and related manufacturing could contribute importantly to higher growth potential if governance, financing and competition are strengthened; tourism and health sectors also have significant growth and job creation potential.

- Competitiveness metrics and structural constraints:  
  - Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) context: overall competitiveness generally at par with Sub-Saharan Africa and low-middle-income peers.  
  - Macro-economic stability sub-index: ranks 65th among the 141 countries covered by the 2019 Global Competitive Report, reflecting skillful and prudent economic management.  
  - Weaknesses: no significant comparative advantage in institutions, infrastructure, product market and labor market functioning, and innovation compared to peers; human capital index appears slightly weaker than peers.

*IMF Country Report content: Annex I Risk Assessment Matrix; Annex II Status of 2021 Article IV Main Recommendations; Annex III External Sector Assessment.*

### 10.      The logistics performance index (LPI) and worldwide governance indicator (WGI) also

### 10.      The logistics performance index (LPI) and worldwide governance indicator (WGI) also

### Logistics Performance Index (LPI) and Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)
- LPI ranks 160 countries on dimensions of trade including customs performance, infrastructure quality, and timeliness of shipments.
- The LPI ranking for Côte d’Ivoire improved between 2016 and 2018, while comparator countries in WAEMU and Sub-Saharan frontier markets have not made much progress.
- WGI measures show Côte d’Ivoire has made significant progress in:
  - government effectiveness,
  - regulatory quality, and
  - voice and accountability.
- Côte d’Ivoire’s government effectiveness, regulatory quality and rule of law outperform the average of other WAEMU members.
- Both LPI and WGI are compiled by the World Bank.

*Sources: World Bank; and IMF staff calculations.*

### Annex IV — IMF Capacity Development: Technical Assistance (TA) focus areas and findings
- Core TA focus: strengthening Côte d’Ivoire’s fiscal position and domestic revenue mobilization; additional TA delivered to strengthen the statistical system.
- Objectives included creating fiscal space for public investment (National Development Plan 2021-2025) by boosting tax revenue and mobilization, containing current spending, and improving the efficiency of outlays.

Tax Policy
- Recent TA focused on the VAT, the informal economy, property taxation and income taxation.
- Recommendations included:
  - developing a multi-year tax reform strategy;
  - strengthening the capacity of the tax policy unit;
  - expanding the VAT base, including through gradual taxation of the agricultural sector;
  - simplifying income taxation and rationalizing investment tax incentives through better targeting and clearer design.
- Policy changes influenced by TA:
  - From 2018 to 2021, tax rates on beverages and tobacco have been more closely aligned with regional directives.
  - March 2019 plan to rationalize exemptions built on TA recommendations.
  - 2021 budget removed some exemptions and widens the VAT base in the agricultural sector.
  - 2022 budget removed an additional set of exemptions on industrial and commercial profits for consumer cooperative companies; various profit tax exemptions of small and medium size enterprises (SMEs); and tax exemptions for mobile capital.
  - Budget law provisions replacement of exemptions in the mining code by those provided in Regulation No. 18/2003/CM/UEMOA and to limit VAT exemptions of the General Tax Code benefiting mining and oil companies to those exclusively provided by the codes applicable to those sectors.

Revenue Administration
- Previous TA under the Revenue Mobilization Thematic Fund (RMTF) and Japan Sub-Account (JSA) targeted:
  - modernizing tax and customs administration;
  - digitalizing tax administration and customs procedures;
  - modernizing human resources management.
- TADAT Assessment (November 2021) findings:
  - Progress since 2015: formulation of a tax compliance improvement plan with communication plan; deployment of a new integrated system for online declaration of taxes and electronic payment platforms; better control of tax arrears; use of tax withholding systems; modernization of dispute settlement procedures.
  - Significant weaknesses remain: lack of a medium- and long-term strategic reform plan; weak mechanisms of internal control and external audit; lack of transparency; insufficient external data sources and weakness of tax control systems; unreliable accounting of tax revenues in the absence of interconnection with the Treasury; and inappropriate organizational arrangements undermining effective delivery of a reform strategy.
  - Future TA will continue to address the identified weaknesses.
- Customs administration TA recommendations prioritized:
  1. strengthening core customs functions and controls in areas with high revenue potential;
  2. improving customs intelligence and supervision functions;
  3. refocusing digitalization activities on customs core functions (including automating control of the oil sector, management of customs bounded warehouses and customs clearance areas, and management of bonds);
  4. strengthening use of data for business needs;
  5. enhancing customs’ contribution to improving the business climate (supplement redress mechanisms, reinvigorate Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) program, introduce issuance of advance rulings on tariff classification);
  6. developing a compliance incentive strategy;
  7. managing human resources in a more modern and efficient way.

Public Financial Management (PFM)
- TA addressed Public Investment Management and Budget Preparation and Forecasting.
- Public Investment Management (PIMA 2017) conclusions and TA focus:
  - Institutional framework broadly appropriate but need to improve integration of planning and budgeting and budgeting for recurrent costs.
  - TA activities: strengthen ex-ante evaluation review and monitoring of project implementation; enhance interconnection of IT systems to follow public investment projects; foster competition for PPP contracts and balance gateway processes involving Budget and Finance General Directorate (DGBF) to monitor fiscal risks; manage recurring costs of capital projects to ensure viability.
  - Progress: better transparency in strategic and financial management of PPP projects; strengthened information on investments financed by donors or earmarked accounts; professionalization of the national PPP steering committee (CNP-PPP); improved articulation between public investment programming and budgeting through transition to program budgeting and integration of investment projects in new budget documents (multi-year expenditure programming documents annexed to the finance bill).
- Budget preparation and macro-fiscal capacity building focused on:
  - analysis of seasonality of economic data series;
  - identifying essential indicators for evaluating relevance of seasonal adjustments;
  - creation of quality reports and interpretation of seasonally adjusted data;
  - short-term forecasts and overall seasonal adjustment policy.

Statistics: Strengthening the statistical system
- National Accounts (NA):
  - TA contributed to improving quarterly NA and compiling new high-frequency indicators.
  - Assistance on quarterly NA according to SNA 2008 methodology and rebasing of annual NA over 1996-2015.
  - Recommendations: better coordination of production and sharing of statistics; INS to carefully document and make public the methodology underlying the recent rebasing of NA.
- Balance of Payments (BOP):
  - TA to improve BOP statistics, including trade in goods and services, higher frequency statistics, and the international investment position.
  - Recent virtual mission assisted authorities to improve consistency between gross external debt liabilities reported in the international investment position and the World Bank’s Quarterly External Debt Statistics database; compile the International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity Template; and improve timeliness of annual external sector data to support the external balance assessment.
- Fiscal Statistics:
  - Recent TA focused on integrating local governments and extrabudgetary units in fiscal accounts according to GFSM 2001/2014;
  - expanding coverage of debt statistics to include major state-owned enterprises for monitoring fiscal risks.

### Annex V — The 2021-25 National Development Plan (NDP)
- NDP approved in December 2021; builds on 2012-15 and 2016-20 programs.
- Historical performance cited:
  - output grew by 8.1 percent on average over 2012-19;
  - poverty rate declined from 51 percent in 2011 to 39.4 percent in 2018.
- Authorities’ expectations from NDP reforms (economic level):
  - boost real GDP growth from 6.5 percent in 2021 to 8.2 percent in 2025, driven mainly by the secondary and tertiary sectors;
  - per capita income to increase by about 30 percent over 2021-25 (and double by 2030, reaching about US$3,500);
  - four million jobs to be created over 2021-25;
  - poverty to reduce to 30 percent by 2025 (and to less than 20 percent by 2030).
- Fiscal framework expectations:
  - fiscal deficit expected to fall gradually toward the WAEMU convergence criterion of a 3 percent fiscal deficit amid efforts to broaden the tax base.
- Private sector and investment targets:
  - private investment to increase from an annual average of 15.4 percent of GDP over 2016-19 to 20.5 percent of GDP in 2025;
  - public investment to increase from an average of 5.2 percent of GDP over 2016-19 to 6.6 percent over 2021-25, of which grants should account for 2.4 percent of GDP.
- Governance of NDP strengthened:
  - dedicated unit attached to the Prime Minister’s office responsible for monitoring implementation progress;
  - governance structure includes a steering committee (chaired by the Prime Minister), a technical committee (headed by the Minister in charge of Planning and Development), a technical monitoring secretariat, and local committees and sectoral and thematic working groups.

### Annex VI — The Social Program of the Government (PSGouv2, 2022-24)
- PSGouv2 approved December 2021 to accelerate reduction of poverty and inequality; builds on PSGouv1 (2019-20) achievements:
  - electricity coverage rate increased from 58 percent in 2018 to 79.6 percent in 2020 through electrification of 1,841 localities;
  - 121,410 job opportunities for young people created;
  - quarterly cash transfers (about 54.8 euros) granted to 227,000 poor and vulnerable households.
- PSGouv2 objectives: tackle Covid-19 consequences; address insecurity in northern border areas; improve education; support youth integration into labor market; improve living conditions of households; strengthen universal health coverage and social safety nets.
- Planned investment: about 2.3 percent of GDP (about three times the initial cost of PSGouv1) across five strategic axes:

1) Fight against fragility in the northern border areas (budget: 0.2 percent of GDP)
- Programs in the Bounkani, Tchologo, Bagoué, Folon and Kabadougou regions for construction of schools, health centers, roads, electrification and drinking water supply to foster job creation and deter armed groups.

2) Improving education and training (0.4 percent of GDP)
- Recruit more than 40,000 teachers and build nearly 7,000 classrooms from pre-school to secondary school.
- Implement a digital literacy program for 18,000 adults.

3) Improving living conditions of households (1.1 percent of GDP)
- Construct social housing (12,000 units in Abidjan).
- Support women’s empowerment by financing more than 150 projects and constructing 50 local markets and several health centers.
- Improve health care, access to drinking water, electricity, and roads.

4) Professional integration of young people and civic service (about ½ percent of GDP)
- Training programs on entrepreneurship and specific skills targeting 250,000 and 112,000 youth, respectively.
- Public-sector internship programs benefiting 190,000 youth.
- "Second Chance School" short-term training program for youth unable to transition to employment.
- Promote high-quality jobs for 15,000 people from vulnerable groups over 2022-24 via training and financing micro enterprises.
- Strengthen civic service programs targeted at youth.

5) Strengthening solidarity with vulnerable populations (0.2 percent of GDP)
- Direct cash transfers (about 54.8 euros per quarter) to 275,000 poor and vulnerable households.
- Strengthen universal health coverage targeting enrollment of 8 million people (about 28 percent of total population) by 2024.
- Construct or update community centers targeting 541 centers (compared to 113 currently in place).

*Source: International Monetary Fund, Côte d’Ivoire report excerpt.*

### 3.      Leveraging the experience with the PSGouv1, the government intends to strengthen

### 3.      Leveraging the experience with the PSGouv1, the government intends to strengthen

### Strengthening monitoring and evaluation of PSGouv projects
- Establishment of a technical coordination unit responsible for:
  - monitoring the projects,
  - conducting satisfaction surveys and impact analyses,
  - strengthening overall communication on the program.

### Relations with the Fund — membership and resources
- Membership: Joined March 11, 1963; Article VIII.
- Quota: 650.40 (SDR Million) — 100.00 percent of quota.
- Fund holdings of currency (Exchange Rate): 1,550.52 (SDR Million) 238.39
- Reserve tranche position: 83.41 (SDR Million) — 12.82 percent.
- SDR Department:
  - Net cumulative allocation: 934.28 (SDR Million) — 100.00 percent.
  - Holdings: 16,634.95 (SDR Million) — 174.99 percent.

### Outstanding purchases, loans, and recent arrangements
- Outstanding Purchases and Loans (SDR Million; % Quota):
  - RCF loans: 216.80 — 33.33 percent.
  - Emergency Assistance1/: 433.60 — 66.67 percent.
  - ECF Arrangements: 471.57 — 72.5 percent.
  - Extended Arrangements: 549.53 — 84.49 percent.
- Outright Loans — selected entries (SDR Million):
  - RCF Apr 17, 2020 (Commitment Apr 21, 2020): Amount Approved 216.80; Amount Drawn 216.80.
  - RFI Apr 17, 2020 (Commitment Apr 21, 2020): Amount Approved 433.60; Amount Drawn 433.60.
  - RCF Jul 08, 2011 (Commitment Jul 18, 2011): Amount Approved 81.30; Amount Drawn 81.30.
- Latest Financial Arrangements — dates and amounts (SDR Million):
  - EFF Dec 12, 2016 – Dec 11, 2020: Amount Approved 562.65; Amount Drawn 562.65.
  - ECF Dec 12, 2016 – Dec 11, 2020: Amount Approved 281.32; Amount Drawn 281.32.
  - ECF Nov 04, 2011 – Dec 17, 2015: Amount Approved 520.32; Amount Drawn 520.32.
- Note: Undrawn outright disbursements (RFI and RCF) expire automatically 60 days following the date of commitment (Board approval date).

### Overdue obligations and projected payments to Fund (SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs)
- Principal by year:
  - 2022: 123.8
  - 2023: 242.2
  - 2024: 360.2
  - 2025: 281.9
  - 2026: 193.4
  - 2027: 172.4
- Charges/interest by year:
  - 2022: 7.3
  - 2023: 13.9
  - 2024: 10.3
  - 2025: 6.2
  - 2026: 4.2
  - 2027: 2.8
- Total by year:
  - 2022: 131.1
  - 2023: 256.1
  - 2024: 370.5
  - 2025: 288.1
  - 2026: 197.6
  - 2027: 175.2

### HIPC and related assistance
- Implementation of HIPC Initiative — commitment and disbursements:
  - Assistance committed by all creditors (US$ Million):
    - Original Framework (Decision point date Mar 1998): 345.00 (US$ Million).
    - Enhanced Framework (April 2009): 3,109.58 (US$ Million).
  - IMF assistance (US$ Million):
    - Original Framework: 22.50
    - Enhanced Framework: 38.66
  - IMF assistance (SDR equivalent in millions at decision/completion): 16.70 and 25.85 respectively.
  - Completion point date: -- (Original); June 2012 (Enhanced).
- Disbursement of IMF assistance (SDR Million):
  - Assistance disbursed to the member: -- (Original); 25.85 (Enhanced); Total 25.85.
  - Interim assistance: -- ; 15.13; 15.13.
  - Completion point balance: -- ; 10.72; 10.72.
  - Additional disbursement of interest income: 0.57.
  - Total disbursements: -- ; 26.42; 26.42.

### Safeguards, exchange arrangements, and Article IV
- Safeguards Assessment:
  - BCEAO update safeguards assessment completed April 2018 found strong control environment since 2013 and governance arrangements broadly appropriate.
  - IFRS adopted beginning with the 2015 financial statements.
  - 2016 external quality review of internal audit found broad conformity with international standards.
  - Latest BCEAO safeguards assessment completed in 2018 and all recommendations have been implemented.
- Exchange Arrangements:
  - Côte d’Ivoire is a member of WAEMU; exchange rate arrangement of WAEMU is a conventional peg.
  - The CFA franc is pegged to the euro at the rate of €1 = CFAF 655.957.
  - Côte d’Ivoire has accepted obligations under Article VIII, Sections 2(a), 3, 4.
- Article IV Consultation:
  - Côte d’Ivoire is on the 12-month Article IV consultation cycle.
  - Executive Board concluded the last Article IV consultation on July 21, 2021.
- Resident Representative:
  - A Fund resident representative first posted in Abidjan in 1984.
  - Interruptions in 2005–06 and 2010–11; continuously assigned since May 2011.

### Relations with other international financial organizations
- As of May 3, 2022, Côte d’Ivoire collaborates with the World Bank Group and the African Development Bank.

### Statistical issues — assessment and data adequacy (As of May 25, 2022)
- General: Data provision is broadly adequate for surveillance; timeliness of some indicators could be improved.
- National Accounts:
  - NIS adopted the 2008 SNA and updated base year to 2015.
  - Annual national accounts for 2015-19 are available; preliminary national accounts for 2020 produced but not published.
  - NIS working on backcasting annual national accounts for 1996-2014.
  - Quarterly national accounts (QNA) still published under 1993 SNA with 1996 base year; alignment of QNA over rebased annual accounts progressing slowly.
  - Agenda plans to release aligned QNA in September 2023.
  - AFRITAC West supporting finalization of annual and quarterly national accounts, improvements of methodologies and source data, and development of financial accounts.
- Price Statistics:
  - Harmonized CPI compilation methods adopted by all WAEMU member countries, with 2014 as the weight reference year.
  - NIS working with WAEMU and AFRISTAT to update harmonized CPI.
  - STA and AFW, under the Data for Decisions Fund, will assist NIS to develop and disseminate a producer price index (PPI).
- Labor Market Statistics:
  - Data on employment in the formal sector is published monthly.
- Government Finance Statistics:
  - Authorities provide annual data on general government for publication in the Government Finance Statistics Yearbook for 2018-19, and will submit data for 2019 and 2020 in line with GFSM 2001/2014 after agreement with April-May 2022 GFS TA mission.
  - No monthly or quarterly fiscal data are provided for publication, but are made available to the IMF African Department.
  - Authorities committed to improve coverage of general government units and public enterprises.
  - Authorities seeking AFRITAC WEST assistance to improve compilation of government finance statistics and implement the 2009 WAEMU TOFE directive for transition to GFSM 2001.
- Monetary and Financial Statistics:
  - Monetary data prepared by national agency of the BCEAO and reported to STA by BCEAO Headquarters monthly with timeliness about two months after reference period.
  - In August 2016, BCEAO completed migration of Côte d’Ivoire’s Monetary and Financial Statistics to Standardized Report Forms for central bank and other depository corporations.
  - BCEAO reports some Financial Access Survey (FAS) series and indicators including commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults and ATMs per 100,000 adults (SDG Target 8.10 indicators).
- Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs):
  - BCEAO finalized FSIs for deposit takers for Côte d’Ivoire in 2018 with IMF Statistics Department TA.
  - BCEAO has used FSIs internally but has not granted approval to publish data on IMF’s FSI website.
- External Sector Statistics:
  - National agency of the BCEAO in Abidjan compiles and disseminates annual balance of payments (BOP) statistics and international investment position (IIP).
  - BOP and IIP data reported to STA in BPM6 format with timeliness about one year after reference period.
  - BCEAO headquarters determines methodology and calculates international reserves managed for WAEMU countries.
  - Four TA missions conducted in Côte d’Ivoire between 2016-20 under a four-year Japan Administered Account project to improve external sector statistics.
  - Ongoing effort to publish quarterly BOP and IIP data.
  - Virtual mission April 2021 examined consistency between gross external debt liabilities of IIP and data submitted to World Bank’s QEDS; discrepancies due to external debt coverage, currency classification and time of reporting.

### Data standards and dissemination
- Participation in GDDS since May 2000; posted National Summary Data Page (NSDP) in December 2017 to participate in enhanced GDDS.
- As of May 25, 2022, access to Central Bank Survey and Deposit Corporation Survey needs authorization by the BCEAO.
- No data ROSC available.
- Côte d’Ivoire reports data to STA for re-dissemination in IMF statistical publications.

### Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance (selected entries; As of May 3, 2022)
- Exchange Rates: Date of Latest Observation Current; Date Received Current; Frequency of Data M; Frequency of Reporting M; Frequency of Publication M.
- International Reserve Assets and Reserve Liabilities of the Monetary Authorities: Date of Latest Observation Current; Date Received Current; Frequency of Data M; Frequency of Reporting M; Frequency of Publication M.
- Reserve/Base Money: Date of Latest Observation 03/2022; Date Received 05/2022; Frequency M M M.
- Broad Money: Date of Latest Observation 03/2022; Date Received 05/2022; Frequency M M M.
- Central Bank Balance Sheet: Date of Latest Observation 03/2022; Date Received 05/2022; Frequency M M M.
- Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking System: Date of Latest Observation 03/2022; Date Received 05/2022; Frequency M M M.
- Interest Rates: Date of Latest Observation 12/20; Date Received 02/21; Frequency I M M.
- Consumer Price Index: Date of Latest Observation 03/22; Date Received 04/22; Frequency M M M.
- Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing – Central Government and National Social Security Funds: Date of Latest Observation 12/21; Date Received 03/22; Frequency M M M.
- Stocks of Central Government and Central Government-Guaranteed Debt: Date of Latest Observation 12/21; Date Received 03/22; Frequency A A A.
- External Current Account Balance: Date of Latest Observation 2020; Date Received 03/22; Frequency A A A.
- Exports and Imports of Goods and Services: Date of Latest Observation 12/21; Date Received 03/22; Frequency M M M.
- GDP/GNP: Date of Latest Observation 2019; Date Received 03/21; Frequency A A A.
- Gross External Debt: Date of Latest Observation 12/21; Date Received 03/22; Frequency A A A.

### Debt sustainability: summary and public debt coverage
- Risk assessments (May 31, 2022):
  - Risk of external debt distress: Moderate.
  - Overall risk of debt distress: Moderate.
  - Granularity in the risk rating: Limited space to absorb shocks.
  - Application of judgement: No.
- Summary findings:
  - External debt service to revenue indicator remains below but close to the threshold.
  - Other projected external debt burden indicators are below their thresholds under the baseline; the most extreme shock is related to exports.
  - Several indicators exceed thresholds under the most severe standard shocks.
  - Space to absorb shocks remains limited.
  - Public debt expected to remain generally stable over the projection horizon.
- Public debt coverage notes:
  - Public debt covers both debt of the central government and guarantees provided by the central government, including guarantees that pertain to SOE debt.
  - DSA classifies external and domestic debt based on the currency criterion due to data constraints.
  - Debt of local governments is excluded from DSA coverage; no available information on this debt.
  - At end-2021, SOE guaranteed commercial debt amounted to 1.3 percent of GDP and non-guaranteed commercial debt amounted to 0.8 percent of GDP.
  - Treatment in the DSA:
    - All guaranteed SOE debt and on-lent debt included in the debt stock in the baseline.
    - Non-guaranteed SOE debt captured as a contingent liability shock set at the default 2 percent of GDP.

*Prepared by the African Department (in consultation with other departments); material as of May 31, 2022.*

### 2. Efforts to increase the government’s capacity to record and monitor public debt and

### 2. Efforts to increase the government’s capacity to record and monitor public debt and contingent liabilities

### Data coverage and institutional efforts
- Further work is needed to enhance data coverage of SOEs in the DSA baseline, including consolidating the general government fiscal accounts with the financial statements of the SOEs (both on the revenue, expenditure, and financing sides) and corresponding 20-year projections.
- Authorities view consolidation of SOE accounts as a prerequisite for incorporating SOE debt into total debt (in the baseline) and have received technical assistance (TA) to advance this task.
- Ongoing work on data reconciliation with the World Bank Debt Reporting System is under way.
- As part of the IDA Sustainable Development Finance Policy (SDFP), authorities created a new portal providing updated information on public debt, including the quarterly debt bulletins, increasing transparency.
- The debt owed to the West-African Development Bank (BOAD) was reclassified from domestic to external debt to harmonize treatment in the WAEMU region.
- CFAF issuance in the regional market is still classified as domestic due to lack of data.
- This DSA continues to exclude external private debt from external debt due to limited information on the outstanding stock of external private debt and related payments.
- SDR use is recorded as domestic debt due to the lending arrangement between the government and the BECAO.
- Non-guaranteed SOE debt is not included in the baseline because of limited information.

### Coverage used for analysis (public sector subsectors noted in source)
- Central government: checked
- Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs): checked
- Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government): checked
- Non-guaranteed SOE debt: not included in baseline

*The authorities created a new portal providing updated information on public debt, including the quarterly debt bulletins, increasing transparency.*

### Contingent liability stress test (sensitivity analysis)
- LIC-DSF default settings applied for the contingent liabilities shock.
- Potential sources of contingent liabilities: SOE debt not captured in data coverage (especially non-guaranteed debt and domestic arrears), public-private partnership agreements, and the financial sector.
- Total contingent liabilities for the CL test are estimated at 9.3 percent of GDP.
- Stock of public-private partnerships represents about 6.6 percent of GDP at end-2021, with more than half of investment commitments in the energy sector.

Text Table (as provided in source):
- Other elements of the general government not captured in 1.: 0 percent of GDP
- SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government): 1/2 percent of GDP
- PPP: 35 percent of PPP stock 2.30
- Financial market (default value of 5 percent of GDP is the minimum value): 5 percent of GDP
- Total (2+3+4+5) (in percent of GDP): 9.3

### Stress-test default trigger note
- The default shock of 2% of GDP will be triggered for countries whose government-guaranteed debt is not fully captured under the country's public debt definition (1.). If it is already included in the government debt (1.) and risks associated with SoE's debt not guaranteed by the government is assessed to be negligible, a country team may reduce this to 0%.

---

### Debt background and composition

### Recent evolution (2017–2021)
- Public debt stood at 53.5 percent of GDP at end-2021, compared with 33.3 percent in 2017.
- External debt stood at 33 percent of GDP at end-2021, compared to 19 percent in 2017 — representing 62 percent of total debt in end-2021 as opposed to 57 percent in 2017.
- The increase in indebtedness over 2017-2021 was driven by higher recourse to external debt including to finance an increase in investment and social spending in the context of the National Development Plan 2015-2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.
- The medium-term debt strategy 2019-2023 (updated in the 2022 finance law) envisaged that 64 percent of new financing would come from external sources and favor borrowing in euros and CFA francs to limit exchange rate risk.

### Domestic debt composition
- Most domestic debt is in the form of CFAF-denominated securities with maturities between 3 months and 15 years, held by domestic and other WAEMU investors.
- Authorities are mindful of the risk that excessive recourse to the regional market could tighten financing constraints and crowd out private sector credit.

### External debt composition (excluding guarantees)
- Commercial creditors hold more than half of the external debt stock.
- Close to 90 percent of commercial debt is in the form of eurobonds.
- Multilateral creditors represented 29 percent of external debt in 2021.
- The IMF and the World Bank jointly satisfied more than a third of the country’s financing needs in 2021.
- Share of bilateral creditors decreased to less than 16 percent of external debt at end-2021 (compared to 21 percent in 2017).
- Remaining shares: commercial creditors 51 percent, guaranteed debt 4 percent.

### DSSI participation and impact
- Authorities joined the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) in 2020.
- Positive answers received from Paris Club creditors and Eximbank India for 2020 and 2021 and the Kuwait fund for 2020.
- Suspended payments amounted to around 5 percent of total debt service (including C2D) in 2020 and 0.4 percent in 2021.
- Benefit of DSSI is limited because a significant share of external debt falling due in 2020 and 2021 has been forgiven by bilateral creditors under the C2D.

---

### Recent developments and macroeconomic assumptions

### Macroeconomic performance and pandemic context
- Growth in 2021 is estimated at about 7 percent.
- Country experienced a short-lived spike of Omicron in 2021 and beginning 2022; fatalities modest with about 800 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic until beginning of May 2022.
- Vaccination began in March 2021; as of mid-May 2022, 12.6 million doses have been administered with about 40 percent of the targeted population (12 years-old and over) having received a first dose.
- Inflation reached 4.2 percent in 2021 reflecting mostly surge in global prices.

### Baseline scenario assumptions (text and Text Table 3 summary)
- Growth path converging to 6 percent over the medium term from 7 percent in 2021.
- Inflation returning to subdued level in the medium term due to exchange rate peg to the euro.
- Gradual improvement in external position.
- Gradual fiscal consolidation to reach the 3 percent of GDP regional fiscal deficit norm by 2024.
- Projections assume a balanced recourse to domestic and external debt.

Selected projections and assumptions (exact values from source):
- GDP growth trajectory: fluctuate between 6 and 6.7 percent through the medium term; staff projects output growth to slow to 6 percent in 2022, rebound to around 6½ in the following years, converge to 6 percent over the medium term.
- Annual average inflation: projected to reach 5.5 percent in 2022; expected to remain low at around 2 percent in the medium term.
- Primary and overall fiscal deficits widened to respectively 3 and 5.1 percent of GDP in 2021.
- Overall deficit in 2022 expected at 5.3 percent of GDP.
- Tax revenue assumed to increase from 12.3 percent of GDP in 2022 to above 13 percent of GDP from 2024 onwards and remain at that level.
- Current account deficit expected to moderately narrow from 4.8 percent of GDP in 2022 to 3.6 percent of GDP in 2027.

Text Table 3 (selected rows, exact source values):
- GDP at constant prices: 2019 6.2; 2020 2.0; 2021 7.0; 2022 6.0; 2023 6.7; 2024 6.4; 2025 6.2; 2026 6.0; 2027 6.0
- GDP deflator: 2019 0.2; 2020 1.0; 2021 2.8; 2022 3.8; 2023 1.8; 2024 1.4; 2025 1.3; 2026 1.2; 2027 1.5
- Total revenue and grants (percent of GDP): 2019 15.0; 2020 15.0; 2021 15.8; 2022 14.7; 2023 15.2; 2024 15.6; 2025 15.5; 2026 15.5; 2027 15.4
- Total expenditure (percent of GDP): 2019 17.3; 2020 20.5; 2021 20.9; 2022 20.0; 2023 19.2; 2024 18.6; 2025 18.6; 2026 18.5; 2027 18.4
- Primary balance (percent of GDP): 2019 -0.8; 2020 -3.7; 2021 -3.0; 2022 -3.3; 2023 -1.9; 2024 -0.9; 2025 -1.0; 2026 -1.0; 2027 -0.9
- Overall balance, incl. grants, payment order basis (percent of GDP): 2019 -2.3; 2020 -5.6; 2021 -5.1; 2022 -5.3; 2023 -4.0; 2024 -3.0; 2025 -3.0; 2026 -3.0; 2027 -3.0
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2019 -2.3; 2020 -3.2; 2021 -3.8; 2022 -4.8; 2023 -4.6; 2024 -4.1; 2025 -3.9; 2026 -3.7; 2027 -3.6
- Non-interest current account balance (percent of GDP): 2019 -1.4; 2020 -2.1; 2021 -2.6; 2022 -3.7; 2023 -3.6; 2024 -3.1; 2025 -2.9; 2026 -2.7; 2027 -2.6

### Risks and upside scenarios
- Downside risks: unfavorable terms-of-trade shocks, weaker-than-expected global growth (pandemic, war in Ukraine, rising protectionism), persistent insecurity in the north.
- Upside risks: confirmation of oil discovery potential, strict implementation of the National Development Plan (NDP).

---

### Debt management strategy and financing assumptions

### Strategy objectives and projected financing mix
- Aim to meet gross financing needs while ensuring debt sustainability through a balanced mix of external and domestic financing.
- Financing needs in 2022 expected to be met by both domestic and foreign currency sources.
- Authorities aim to borrow externally in line with medium-term debt strategy; level of external commercial borrowing set close to projected external commercial debt service.
- Multilateral and bilateral financing projected to gradually decline from 2 percent of GDP in 2022 to 1.5 percent in 2042.
- IDA disbursement projections: share of total multilateral financing projected to increase from 70 percent in 2022 to 79 percent in 2026, before declining to 23 percent in 2042.
- In the short term, government expected to rely on both concessional and non-concessional borrowing.

### Domestic issuance maturity structure (assumptions)
- Less than one-year: 12 percent of issuances
- One to three years: 8 percent
- Three to seven years: 46 percent
- More than seven years: 34 percent

### Interest rate assumptions
- Regional and eurobonds’ interest rates projected to average 5.4 and 5.5 percent respectively over the projections’ period.

### Domestic financing scale-up caveat
- Projected increase in domestic financing would require significant purchases of Ivoirian securities by WAEMU residents, potentially crowding out smaller borrowers.
- Côte d’Ivoire’s share in the regional market projected to increase from 36 in 2021 to 38 percent in 2026.
- If those purchases do not occur, external commercial financing would have to increase to fill the gap.
- Domestic borrowing assumptions hinge on Côte d’Ivoire’s capacity to increase by 35 percent the volume of domestic issuances within the next 4 years (from around FCFA billion 2,600 projected in 2022 to 3,500 in 2026) at the current yields.

---

### Country classification and tailored market financing stress test

### Debt-carrying capacity classification
- Côte d’Ivoire assessed to have medium debt-carrying capacity.
- Composite indicator: 2.96 (above lower cut-off 2.69 but below strong capacity cut-off 3.05).
- Classification consistent with previous DSA vintages.

### External debt burden thresholds (as applied)
- PV of debt in % of Exports: 55
- PV of total public debt in percent of GDP: 180
- Debt service in % of Exports: 40
- Debt service in % of Revenue: 15
- Total public debt benchmark in % of GDP: 18 (presented as thresholds in source)

### Tailored test for international market financing
- Rationale: Côte d’Ivoire’s reliance on global capital markets; sizeable eurobond issuances in 2020 (~US$1.2 billion) and early 2021 (~US$1 billion).
- Tailored test assumptions: temporary increase in the cost of new commercial external borrowing by 400 basis points combined with a nominal depreciation of 15 percent of the CFAF vis-à-vis the US$ and a shortening of maturities and of grace periods.

---

*Source: IMF staff DSA chapter text (Côte d’Ivoire).*

### 14. A contingent liability tailored shock was conducted to capture potential fiscal risks

### 14. A contingent liability tailored shock was conducted to capture potential fiscal risks

### Tailored contingent liability shock
- The tailored stress test includes:
  - a standardized 2 percent of GDP for risks related to SOEs;
  - a 2.3 percent of GDP shock to accommodate potential fiscal risks on 35 percent of the PPP capital stock;
  - a financial sector shock of 5 percent of GDP.
- A contingent liability shock would trigger a temporary breach of the PV of debt-to-GDP threshold for five years.

### Standard stress tests and other shocks applied
- Standard stress tests on: real GDP growth, primary balance, exports, current transfers, foreign exchange (FX) depreciation.
- Tailored test on commodity prices captures the impact of a sudden one standard deviation decline in commodity prices.
- Method for first four shocks: set each variable to the lower of its historical average minus one standard deviation, or its baseline projection minus one standard deviation.
- FX depreciation assumption: nominal depreciation of 30 percent of the CFAF vis-à-vis the US$ in the first year of the projection.

### External debt sustainability findings
- Risk rating: country remains at moderate risk of debt distress despite being very close to the threshold of debt service to revenue ratio.
- Debt service-to-revenue ratio path:
  - remains below the 18 percent threshold during the projection period;
  - peaks at 17.9 percent in 2024;
  - decreases to 14.3 percent in 2027.
- Drivers of deterioration versus prior AIV:
  - deterioration mainly from exchange rate depreciation and to a lesser extent from the BOAD reclassification from domestic to external creditor;
  - offsetting positive effect of inflation on revenues and an upward revision of revenue projections.
- PV of external debt-to-GDP:
  - expected to decrease from 28.3 percent in 2022 to 21.3 percent in 2032;
  - threshold: 40.
- PV of external debt-to-exports:
  - peaks at 127.1 percent at the beginning of the projection period before decreasing;
  - threshold: 180.
- Debt service-to-exports:
  - expected to reach 11.9 percent in 2032;
  - threshold: 15.
- Shocks:
  - An export shock would cause the PV of external debt-to-export ratio and debt service-to-export ratio to breach the threshold from 2024 onward.
  - Most shocks would cause the debt-service-to-revenue indicator to breach the threshold starting in 2024.
- Vulnerabilities:
  - Exports of cocoa products represent more than one third of total exports, increasing sensitivity to price fluctuations.
  - Market financing risk: EMBI spread increased to 365 bpm from 350 bpm in the last staff report; while GFN and EMBI spread remain below benchmarks, market-financing risk materialization could cause prolonged breaches of the debt service-to-revenue threshold.

### Public debt sustainability findings
- PV of public debt-to-GDP:
  - under the baseline, below its threshold of 55 percent;
  - expected to decline to around 45 percent by 2032.
- PV of debt-to-revenue and grants ratio:
  - would decline marginally from around 339 percent in 2022 to 285 percent in 2032.
- Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio:
  - projected to soar to 57.5 percent in 2024;
  - projected to remain above 54 percent for the projection period (from 34 percent in 2021).
- Stress-test outcomes:
  - Commodity price shock: PV of public debt-to-GDP would breach the 55 percent threshold starting in 2025 and continue growing afterwards, generating an explosive pattern of debt and debt-service indicators.
  - Contingent liability shock: temporary breach of PV of debt-to-GDP threshold for five years.

### Risk rating, vulnerabilities, and implications
- Overall DSA conclusion: overall risk of debt distress remains moderate, with limited capacity to absorb shocks.
- Under extreme shocks (exports and market financing), three out of four external debt indicators would breach their thresholds.
- Recent global shocks (COVID environment and the war in Ukraine) have exacerbated risks by weakening global growth recovery and Ivoirian exports.
- Critical policy imperatives highlighted:
  - accelerate policies aiming at diversification to strengthen resilience to shocks;
  - intensify revenue mobilization to provide sustainable funding and buffers on debt service;
  - prudent external borrowing strategy to balance costs and risks of new loans and preserve borrowing space;
  - carefully evaluate desirability and timing of tapping external markets, limit issuance amounts, and consider alternative sources such as IFIs guaranteed commercial loans;
  - fully integrate SOE debt in debt sustainability assessments and maintain full oversight of SOE debt contracting;
  - create fiscal space and contain medium-term public expenditure;
  - balance domestic and external debt equilibrium through careful debt management.

*Source: 1civea2022001 - 14. A contingent liability tailored shock was conducted to capture potential fiscal risks*

### 24. The authorities agreed that Côte d’Ivoire remains at moderate risk of debt distress.

### 1civea2022001 - 24. The authorities agreed that Côte d’Ivoire remains at moderate risk of debt distress.

### Authorities' assessment and commitment
- The authorities agreed that Côte d’Ivoire remains at moderate risk of debt distress.
- The authorities are strongly committed to keeping the country at moderate risk of debt distress.
- They are aware that the external debt service to revenue ratio is extremely close to the threshold.
- They are monitoring closely the concessionality of new contracts and the pace of disbursement to remain in the same debt distress category.
- The authorities expressed discontent regarding what they saw as a sudden reclassification of the BOAD debt (issued in CFAF) from domestic to external debt which could affect the capacity to borrow externally; they noted that this reclassification will be addressed by a forthcoming Council of Ministers of the WAEMU.
- Given increasing costs of borrowing in the markets, the authorities are looking for alternative sources of financing, including increasing fiscal revenue mobilization, to keep their debt sustainable.

### Debt indicators and current risk signals
- Debt distress classification: moderate risk of debt distress.
- External debt (nominal) and PPG external debt (percent of GDP), selected years:
  - 2019: 28.1
  - 2020: 32.3
  - 2021: 33.0
  - 2022: 32.6
  - 2023: 31.5
  - 2024: 30.4
  - 2025: 29.5
  - 2026: 29.1
  - 2027: 28.7
  - 2032: 25.1
  - 2042: 19.4
  - Average (actual/projections line): 28.6
- Change in external debt (percent of GDP), selected years:
  - 2019: 3.4
  - 2020: 4.2
  - 2021: 0.7
  - 2022: -0.4
  - 2023: -1.1
  - 2024: -1.1
  - 2025: -0.9
  - 2026: -0.4
  - 2027: -0.3
  - 2032: -0.7
  - 2042: -0.5
- Identified net debt-creating flows (percent of GDP), selected years:
  - 2019: 3.3
  - 2020: 3.0
  - 2021: 0.9
  - 2022: 3.9
  - 2023: 3.8
  - 2024: 3.4
  - 2025: 3.4
  - 2026: 3.3
  - 2027: 3.3
  - 2032: 4.4
  - 2042: 6.4
- Endogenous debt dynamics (percent of GDP), selected years:
  - 2019: 0.6
  - 2020: -0.2
  - 2021: -2.8
  - 2022: -0.9
  - 2023: -1.0
  - 2024: -0.8
  - 2025: -0.7
  - 2026: -0.7
  - 2027: -0.7
  - 2032: -0.6
  - 2042: -0.4
- Residual (percent of GDP), selected years:
  - 2019: 0.0
  - 2020: 1.1
  - 2021: -0.2
  - 2022: -4.3
  - 2023: -4.9
  - 2024: -4.5
  - 2025: -4.3
  - 2026: -3.7
  - 2027: -3.7
  - 2032: -5.1
  - 2042: -6.9
  - Average (actual/projections line): 1.0 / -4.5 (table shows both lines)
- Sustainability indicators (selected):
  - PV of PPG external debt-to-GDP ratio, selected years:
    - 2022: 27.2
    - 2023: 28.3
    - 2024: 27.4
    - 2025: 26.4
    - 2026: 25.5
    - 2027: 25.0
    - 2032: 21.3
    - 2042: 16.2
  - PV of PPG external debt-to-exports ratio, selected years:
    - 2022: 120.4
    - 2023: 126.0
    - 2024: 127.1
    - 2025: 121.3
    - 2026: 117.4
    - 2027: 115.0
    - 2032: 102.1
    - 2042: 82.7
  - PPG debt service-to-exports ratio, selected years:
    - 2019: 6.9
    - 2020: 8.2
    - 2021: 9.4
    - 2022: 10.1
    - 2023: 11.4
    - 2024: 12.5
    - 2025: 12.5
    - 2026: 10.8
    - 2027: 9.9
    - 2032: 11.9
    - 2042: 8.6
  - PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio, selected years:
    - 2019: 11.4
    - 2020: 12.3
    - 2021: 13.9
    - 2022: 16.0
    - 2023: 16.7
    - 2024: 17.9
    - 2025: 17.8
    - 2026: 15.6
    - 2027: 14.3
    - 2032: 16.1
    - 2042: 11.1
- Gross external financing need (Million of U.S. dollars), selected years:
  - 2019: 2528.7
  - 2020: 3093.0
  - 2021: 4083.8
  - 2022: 5102.4
  - 2023: 5774.9
  - 2024: 6113.1
  - 2025: 6471.7
  - 2026: 6500.7
  - 2027: 6788.3
  - 2032: 11749.0
  - 2042: 27124.8

### Key macroeconomic assumptions (selected exact values)
- Real GDP growth (in percent), selected:
  - 2019: 6.2
  - 2020: 2.0
  - 2021: 7.0
  - 2022: 6.0
  - 2023: 6.7
  - 2024: 6.4
  - 2025: 6.2
  - 2026: 6.0
  - 2027: 6.0
  - 2032: 5.8
  - 2042: 5.6
  - Average (projection line): 7.4 / 6.1 (table shows two average lines)
- GDP deflator in US dollar terms (change in percent), selected:
  - 2019: -5.0
  - 2020: 2.9
  - 2021: 6.6
  - 2022: -2.3
  - 2023: 3.2
  - 2024: 2.8
  - 2025: 2.2
  - 2026: 1.9
  - 2027: 1.5
  - 2032: 1.5
  - 2042: 1.5
  - Average: -0.2 / 1.5 (table shows both)
- Effective interest rate (percent), selected:
  - 2019: 3.6
  - 2020: 4.1
  - 2021: 4.1
  - 2022: 3.3
  - 2023: 3.4
  - 2024: 3.5
  - 2025: 3.5
  - 2026: 3.5
  - 2027: 3.5
  - 2032: 3.5
  - 2042: 3.3
  - Average (projection line): 4.0 / 3.5 (table shows both)

### Stress tests, scenarios, and risks
- Stress testing framework:
  - The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in or before 2032; the stress test with a one-off breach is also presented (if any). When a stress test with a one-off breach is the most extreme shock even after disregarding the one-off breach, only that stress test (with a one-off breach) is presented.
  - Notes in figures: "Yes" indicates any change to the size or interactions of the default settings for the stress tests. "n.a." indicates that the stress test does not apply.
- Tailored and standard stress tests reported include:
  - Market financing shock (identified as the most extreme shock in some indicators).
  - Exports shock (identified as the most extreme shock for PV of debt-to-exports, PV of debt-to-GDP, and debt service-to-exports in some figures).
  - Commodity price shock (identified as most extreme for certain public debt indicators).
  - Combined contingent liabilities and natural disaster (tailored tests; natural disaster appears as n.a. in some tables).
- Sensitivity analysis highlights (selected values from Tables 3 and 4):
  - PV of debt-to-GDP ratio (baseline and alternative paths), example projection: baseline 28.3 in 2022 declining to 21.3 in 2032.
  - PV of debt-to-exports ratio (baseline): 126 in 2023, 127 in 2024, 121 in 2025, 102.1 in 2032.
  - Debt service-to-revenue ratio (baseline): 16.0 in 2022; alternative scenarios and bound/tailored tests show values up to and above threshold levels in some scenarios (tables flag bold values as breaches of thresholds).
  - Total public debt benchmark indicated as 55 (TOTAL public debt benchmark row in Figure 2 / Table 4).

### Policy measures and recommendations (authorities' intended actions)
- Monitor concessionality of new borrowing contracts to preserve debt classification.
- Monitor pace of disbursements to manage debt-service ratios.
- Seek alternative financing sources amid rising market borrowing costs, including:
  - Increasing fiscal revenue mobilization.
- Address classification issue of BOAD debt at the WAEMU Council of Ministers to clarify external/domestic debt treatment and preserve external borrowing capacity.

*Source: 1civea2022001 - 24. The authorities agreed that Côte d’Ivoire remains at moderate risk of debt distress.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2022/english/1civea2022001.pdf_