## 1lcaea2022001 - Section 1

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---

### Summary of mission outcomes and priority recommendations
- Mission type and timing:
  - A remote technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted for the Central Statistical Office (CSO) of Saint Lucia during March 22–26, 2021 as part of the CARTAC work program on ESS.
- Main mission outcomes:
  - Assessed available source data and main changes in the collection system affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
  - Provided guidance to estimate nonresponse and missing data.
  - Assessed available monthly and quarterly data and their timeliness with support from the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB).
- COVID-19 impacts and operational observations:
  - COVID-19 partially affected administrative data sources (trade, number of tourism visitors, remittances, government transfers, financial statements) due to delays from work-from-home arrangements.
  - Tourism-related stayover expenditure surveys by the Tourism Board of Saint Lucia were not possible because of inability to conduct in-person interviews.
  - Response rate to balance of payments surveys was lower than 50 percent and around 30 percent for the hotels sector.
  - The CSO processes survey data received but does not make estimations for missing data or low response rates; the ECCB currently makes those estimations as part of their revision process.
  - The mission recommended designating officials for validation of balance of payments surveys and for follow-up of data to avoid delaying compilation.
- Validation and estimation guidance:
  - Mission provided CSO compilers guidance on validation procedures from the BPM6 Compilation Guide (BPM6CG).
  - Proposed estimation methods that consider relative importance of nonresponding enterprises, sector activity, and sample expansion (where possible).
  - Recommended establishing a permanent validation process to detect and correct inconsistencies promptly.
- Business registry and data consistency:
  - Business registry needs updating to improve grossing up ratios employed by the ECCB.
  - Recommended sources to update registry: current registers for National Accounts focusing on key respondents, taxation records, information from Invest Saint Lucia, and media reports.
- Trade statistics and dissemination:
  - CSO’s annual report continues to disseminate exports data inconsistent with ECCB balance of payments series (CSO provides trade statistics with adjustments to ECCB but publishes exports without those adjustments).
  - Previous TA (February 2018) identified: (a) re-exports of aviation fuel lacking corresponding precedent imports in CED records (artificially improving the trade balance); (b) export values of alcoholic beverages too high according to Trade Export Promotion Agency.
  - Mission recommended regular assessment of data sources for coverage or response errors and validation of CED data against enterprise information; disseminate export statistics consistent with those provided to ECCB for balance of payments purposes.
- High-frequency indicators:
  - Some variables are available for flash indicators (e.g., monthly trade balance, monthly number of tourism visitor arrivals), but ECCB will define dissemination commitments when establishing the new Balance of Payments Unit.
- Priority recommendations (from Table 1):
  - October 2021 — Assess source data regularly, particularly exports of goods provided by the CED, to comply with the guidelines for data accuracy. — Responsible: CSO
  - October 2021 — Update and extend the business registry in line with changes in the economy. — Responsible: CSO
  - December 2021 — A preliminary revised 2000-13 trade data, number of visitors, visitors’ expenditure, and other information for balance of payments purposes directly received by the CSO are prepared to be shared with the ECCB. — Responsible: CSO

### Detailed technical assessment and action plan
- Action plan structure:
  - Actions are categorized as high (H) and priority recommendations (PR).
  - Key milestones, target completion dates, and expected outcomes are specified.
- Selected priority actions and target completion dates:
  - PR: Assess source data regularly, particularly exports of goods provided by CED, to comply with the guidelines for data accuracy. — Target Completion Date: October 2021
  - PR: Update and extend the business registry in line with changes in the economy. — Target Completion Date: October 2021
  - H: Designate officials in charge of the validation process for balance of payments surveys. — Target Completion Date: December 2021
  - H: Disseminate exports data consistent with that provided to the ECCB to improve the serviceability of the data. — Target Completion Date: October 2021
  - H: Correct table 11.4 of the Annual Report which does not correspond to the balance of payments of Saint Lucia. — Target Completion Date: October 2021
  - H: Produce frequent indicators of balance of payments in advance of the preliminary annual estimation; coordinate with ECCB. — Target Completion Date: March 2022
  - PR: Prepare a preliminary revised 2000-13 trade data, number of visitors, visitors’ expenditure, and other information for balance of payments purposes directly received by the CSO to share with the ECCB. — Target Completion Date: December 2021

### Source data and COVID-19 collection system changes
- Trade in goods:
  - Exports include locally produced goods exports, exports from free zones, and re-exports from free zones and warehouses.
  - Total exports and imports are provided by the Customs and Excise Department (CED).
  - Frequency: monthly. Timeliness: 6-8 weeks after the end of the reference month. Some lags since March 2020, but data were received.
  - Recommended practices:
    - Regularly assess source data (coverage, response errors).
    - Validate significant products against direct enterprise information.
    - Produce a reconciliation table of differences between merchandise trade statistics and goods on the balance of payments (e.g., BPM6 Table 10.2 sample adjustments).
    - Ensure exports values disseminated in CSO Annual Report are consistent with information published by ECCB; correct or clarify Table 11.4 in the Annual Report (it currently corresponds to the consolidated balance of payments of the ECCU member countries).
- Tourism and visitor expenditure:
  - Tourism Board provides stayover and cruise ship passenger arrival numbers and average length of stay (from migration statistics); frequency: monthly; timeliness: about three months after the end of the reference month.
  - Stayover visitor expenditure surveys were not conducted in 2020 due to inability to do in-person interviews.
  - Recommended extrapolation method:
    - Extrapolate average daily expenditures (ADEs) using the consumer price index (CPI) related to each visitor expenditure category, weighted by weights from the nearest visitor expenditure surveys.
    - Use ADEs with arrival numbers and average length of stay to estimate stayover visitor expenditure.
    - Use stayover ADE (exclusive of accommodation expenditure) to extrapolate ADEs for cruise ship visitors and yacht visitors when their expenditure data are not available.
  - Note: CSO stated they do not make estimations and that ECCB conducts this process; ECCB confirmed the TA-suggested methodology is applied regularly.
- Travel services credit (education):
  - Expenditure of students enrolled in offshore universities (OU) is not significant relative to other ECCU member countries; only one university with participation of international students.
  - Tuition and other income information for the main university is taken from the Inland Revenue Department (IRD).
- Workers’ remittances:
  - CSO receives information from the financial regulator authority; frequency: quarterly; timeliness: two quarters after the end of the reference month.
  - Informal remittances are not estimated. Pandemic-related closure of informal channels (travelers) may have shifted remittances to banks or money transfer operators, possibly increasing formal remittances.
- Compensation of employees:
  - Source data are ESS surveys. Pandemic challenge: lower survey response rates.
  - Estimations should consider that some employees became unemployed (e.g., workers in hotels and restaurant activities, construction activities). ECCB commented that workers in these areas are usually residents.
- Recommended actions (extracted from mission recommendations):
  - Assess source data regularly, particularly exports of goods provided by the CED, to comply with the guidelines for data accuracy.
  - Disseminate exports data consistent with that provided to the ECCB to improve the serviceability of the data.
  - Correct Table 11.4 of the Annual Report which does not correspond to the balance of payments of Saint Lucia.

### Nonresponse, timeliness, and time-series completion
- Survey response rates and processing:
  - ESS surveys are carried out by the Survey Unit (SU) of the CSO, which also handles National Accounts and CPI surveys.
  - Response rate to balance of payments surveys is lower than 50 percent and around 30 percent for the hotels sector.
  - CSO processes received survey data but validation is insufficient; CSO does not make estimations for missing data or low response rates.
  - ECCB works directly with CSO officials to cross-check data and contact key respondents as needed; some missing data are completed mainly by ECCB using financial statements from the IRD.
- Administrative sources used:
  - Invest Saint Lucia, the Land Registry Department, the Airport Authority, the Financial Regulator Authority, and the Ministry of Finance are used to supplement survey data.

*Prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund based on information available at the time it was completed in March 2022.*

### Section 1

### 1lcaea2022001 - Section 1

### Summary of mission outcomes and priority recommendations
- A remote technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted for the Central Statistical Office (CSO) of Saint Lucia during March 22–26, 2021 as part of the CARTAC work program on ESS.
- Main mission outcomes:
  - Assessed available source data and main changes in the collection system affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
  - Provided guidance to estimate nonresponse and missing data.
  - Assessed available monthly and quarterly data and their timeliness with support from the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB).
- COVID-19 impacts and operational observations:
  - COVID-19 partially affected administrative data sources (trade, number of tourism visitors, remittances, government transfers, financial statements) due to delays from work-from-home arrangements.
  - Tourism-related stayover expenditure surveys by the Tourism Board of Saint Lucia were not possible because of inability to conduct in-person interviews.
  - Response rate to balance of payments surveys was lower than 50 percent and around 30 percent for the hotels sector.
  - The CSO processes survey data received but does not make estimations for missing data or low response rates; the ECCB currently makes those estimations as part of their revision process.
  - The mission recommended designating officials for validation of balance of payments surveys and for follow-up of data to avoid delaying compilation.
- Validation and estimation guidance:
  - Mission provided CSO compilers guidance on validation procedures from the BPM6 Compilation Guide (BPM6CG).
  - Proposed estimation methods that consider relative importance of nonresponding enterprises, sector activity, and sample expansion (where possible).
  - Recommended establishing a permanent validation process to detect and correct inconsistencies promptly.
- Business registry and data consistency:
  - Business registry needs updating to improve grossing up ratios employed by the ECCB.
  - Recommended sources to update registry: current registers for National Accounts focusing on key respondents, taxation records, information from Invest Saint Lucia, and media reports.
- Trade statistics and dissemination:
  - CSO’s annual report continues to disseminate exports data inconsistent with ECCB balance of payments series (CSO provides trade statistics with adjustments to ECCB but publishes exports without those adjustments).
  - Previous TA (February 2018) identified: (a) re-exports of aviation fuel lacking corresponding precedent imports in CED records (artificially improving the trade balance); (b) export values of alcoholic beverages too high according to Trade Export Promotion Agency.
  - Mission recommended regular assessment of data sources for coverage or response errors and validation of CED data against enterprise information; disseminate export statistics consistent with those provided to ECCB for balance of payments purposes.
- High-frequency indicators:
  - Some variables are available for flash indicators (e.g., monthly trade balance, monthly number of tourism visitor arrivals), but ECCB will define dissemination commitments when establishing the new Balance of Payments Unit.
- Priority recommendations (from Table 1):
  - October 2021 — Assess source data regularly, particularly exports of goods provided by the CED, to comply with the guidelines for data accuracy. — Responsible: CSO
  - October 2021 — Update and extend the business registry in line with changes in the economy. — Responsible: CSO
  - December 2021 — A preliminary revised 2000-13 trade data, number of visitors, visitors’ expenditure, and other information for balance of payments purposes directly received by the CSO are prepared to be shared with the ECCB. — Responsible: CSO

### Detailed technical assessment and recommendations — Action plan
- Action plan structure:
  - Actions are categorized as high (H) and priority recommendations (PR).
  - Key milestones, target completion dates, and expected outcomes are specified.
- Selected priority actions and target completion dates:
  - PR: Assess source data regularly, particularly exports of goods provided by CED, to comply with the guidelines for data accuracy. — Target Completion Date: October 2021
  - PR: Update and extend the business registry in line with changes in the economy. — Target Completion Date: October 2021
  - H: Designate officials in charge of the validation process for balance of payments surveys. — Target Completion Date: December 2021
  - H: Disseminate exports data consistent with that provided to the ECCB to improve the serviceability of the data. — Target Completion Date: October 2021
  - H: Correct table 11.4 of the Annual Report which does not correspond to the balance of payments of Saint Lucia. — Target Completion Date: October 2021
  - H: Produce frequent indicators of balance of payments in advance of the preliminary annual estimation; coordinate with ECCB. — Target Completion Date: March 2022
  - PR: Prepare a preliminary revised 2000-13 trade data, number of visitors, visitors’ expenditure, and other information for balance of payments purposes directly received by the CSO to share with the ECCB. — Target Completion Date: December 2021

### Source data and main changes in the collection system due to COVID-19
- Trade in goods:
  - Exports include locally produced goods exports, exports from free zones, and re-exports from free zones and warehouses.
  - Total exports and imports are provided by the Customs and Excise Department (CED).
  - Frequency: monthly. Timeliness: 6-8 weeks after the end of the reference month. Some lags since March 2020, but data were received.
  - Recommended practices:
    - Regularly assess source data (coverage, response errors).
    - Validate significant products against direct enterprise information.
    - Produce a reconciliation table of differences between merchandise trade statistics and goods on the balance of payments (e.g., BPM6 Table 10.2 sample adjustments).
    - Ensure exports values disseminated in CSO Annual Report are consistent with information published by ECCB; correct or clarify Table 11.4 in the Annual Report (it currently corresponds to the consolidated balance of payments of the ECCU member countries).
- Tourism and visitor expenditure:
  - Tourism Board provides stayover and cruise ship passenger arrival numbers and average length of stay (from migration statistics); frequency: monthly; timeliness: about three months after the end of the reference month.
  - Stayover visitor expenditure surveys were not conducted in 2020 due to inability to do in-person interviews.
  - Recommended extrapolation method:
    - Extrapolate average daily expenditures (ADEs) using the consumer price index (CPI) related to each visitor expenditure category, weighted by weights from the nearest visitor expenditure surveys.
    - Use ADEs with arrival numbers and average length of stay to estimate stayover visitor expenditure.
    - Use stayover ADE (exclusive of accommodation expenditure) to extrapolate ADEs for cruise ship visitors and yacht visitors when their expenditure data are not available.
  - Note: CSO stated they do not make estimations and that ECCB conducts this process; ECCB confirmed the TA-suggested methodology is applied regularly.
- Travel services credit (education):
  - Expenditure of students enrolled in offshore universities (OU) is not significant relative to other ECCU member countries; only one university with participation of international students.
  - Tuition and other income information for the main university is taken from the Inland Revenue Department (IRD).
- Workers’ remittances:
  - CSO receives information from the financial regulator authority; frequency: quarterly; timeliness: two quarters after the end of the reference month.
  - Informal remittances are not estimated. Pandemic-related closure of informal channels (travelers) may have shifted remittances to banks or money transfer operators, possibly increasing formal remittances.
- Compensation of employees:
  - Source data are ESS surveys. Pandemic challenge: lower survey response rates.
  - Estimations should consider that some employees became unemployed (e.g., workers in hotels and restaurant activities, construction activities). ECCB commented that workers in these areas are usually residents.
- Recommended actions (extracted from mission recommendations):
  - Assess source data regularly, particularly exports of goods provided by the CED, to comply with the guidelines for data accuracy.
  - Disseminate exports data consistent with that provided to the ECCB to improve the serviceability of the data.
  - Correct Table 11.4 of the Annual Report which does not correspond to the balance of payments of Saint Lucia.

### Nonresponse, timeliness of dissemination, and longer time series
- Survey response rates and processing:
  - ESS surveys are carried out by the Survey Unit (SU) of the CSO, which also handles National Accounts and CPI surveys.
  - Response rate to balance of payments surveys is lower than 50 percent and around 30 percent for the hotels sector.
  - CSO processes received survey data but validation is insufficient; CSO does not make estimations for missing data or low response rates.
  - ECCB works directly with CSO officials to cross-check data and contact key respondents as needed; some missing data are completed mainly by ECCB using financial statements from the IRD.
- Administrative sources used:
  - Invest Saint Lucia, the Land Registry Department, the Airport Authority, the Financial Regulator Authority, and the Ministry of Finance are used to supplement survey data.

*Prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund based on information available at the time it was completed in March 2022.*

### Section 2

### Section 2

### Validation guidance and survey estimation procedures
- The mission provided guidance to the CSO compilers on the validation procedures provided by the BPM6CG:
  - a. Saint Lucia may use a benchmark survey as a basis for the grossing up factors, considering the relative importance of the enterprises that did not respond, compared with those that responded. It is recommended to have an updated business register otherwise the weights could be misleading.
  - b. Consider the sector activity, and sample expansion (where possible).
  - c. A permanent validation process, since the sooner an inconsistency is detected the easier it would be to receive a clarification or correction from the respondent. Telephone contact may help to obtain information from the enterprises that are considered the largest nonrespondents to the survey.
  - d. It is important to follow a method of estimating the data of nonrespondents. Published information such as financial statements on the Internet may be useful to impute data for large nonrespondent companies. The ECCB confirmed that this is the practice they applied currently.
- BPM6CG references and compilation notes:
  - Paragraph 2.57 of the BPM6CG states that economies that have conducted surveys previously may use previous estimates as a starting point to estimate the universe. Estimations for the missing companies could employ the most recently reported data.
  - For the grossing up to the universe estimates, the grossing up factors (weights) of companies are important. As paragraph 2.23 indicates, we need the number of entities in the universe and the individual weight of each enterprise’s transactions/positions. That is why it is important to make an update of business registries with some frequency.
  - The ECCB provides periodical guidance on the validation of the data as well.

### Business register and source-data improvements
- The business registry needs to be updated to provide a better framework to improve the grossing up ratios employed by the ECCB.
- Recommendations to the CSO on useful source data for the registry:
  - Current registers for National Accounts focusing on key respondents.
  - Taxation records.
  - Information from Invest Saint Lucia.
  - Media reports.

### Data validation, institutional roles, and coordination with ECCB
- Actions required:
  - Establish permanent data validation and cooperation with the ECCB for compilation purposes.
  - Include quality control checks in questionnaires to facilitate validation.
  - Use alternative sources to cross-check (for example, information enterprises provide for National Accounts).
  - As information is processed, observe results and revise main enterprises’ data if results are not as expected.
- Institutional constraint noted:
  - The absence of a CSO statistician specifically in charge of the validation process affects the compilation process.

### 2020 data, alternative sources, and survey timing
- Data for 2020 would include alternative data sources to fill data gaps as well as statistical techniques to estimate visitors’ expenditure for the travel account.
- Mission timing and data provision:
  - During a recent mission to the ECCB on March 15–19, 2021, the preliminary 2019 balance of payments and IIP for the eight ECCU member countries were revised.
  - The CSO would provide 2020 balance of payments survey data to the ECCB around mid-year 2021.

### Timeliness and interim indicators
- Saint Lucia’s balance of payments and IIP is disseminated with delays.
- For surveillance purposes it is important to reduce the delays or to have some frequent indicators of the ESS.
- Available higher-frequency or proxy data that can be coordinated with the ECCB:
  - Monthly trade of goods (received by the CSO).
  - Remittances collected on a quarterly basis.
  - Information from the financial sector (banking sector collected directly by the ECCB).
  - Travel estimates using number of travelers provided by the Tourism Board of Saint Lucia and estimated expenditure of stayover, cruise, and yacht visitors.

### Backcasting and time-series completion for 2000–13
- On backcasting the balance of payments to complete time series for 2000–13:
  - The CSO mentioned they are not involved in this exercise and the ECCB would oversee it.
  - Recommendation: the CSO should contribute at least available information of trade and travel for the period 2000–13 for the ECCB.
- A draft revised 2000–13 trade data, number of visitors, visitors’ expenditure, and other information for balance of payments purposes directly received by the CSO is prepared to be shared with the ECCB.

### Recommended Actions
- Designate officials for the validation process of balance of payments surveys and for the follow up of the data.
- Update and extend the business registry in line with changes in the economy.
- Produce frequent indicators of balance of payments in advance of the preliminary annual estimation. This must be coordinated with the ECCB as they disseminate ESS for all the ECCU member countries.
- A draft revised 2000–13 trade data, number of visitors, visitors’ expenditure, and other information for balance of payments purposes directly received by the CSO is prepared to be shared with the ECCB.

### Officials met during the mission
- Maureen Joseph-Lubin, CSO
- Nola Anthony, CSO
- Alexius Eristhe, CSO
- Jeanine Hippolyte, CSO
- Marina Antoine, CSO

### Appendix I — Assessment of the Action Plan Established by the Previous Mission (selected entries)
- Priority Action / Milestone: Update of IMTS with revised data for 2011 onwards.
  - Target Completion Date: December 2020
  - Implementation Status: Rescheduled
- Priority Action / Milestone: Compile and present the revised 2000–13 financial account broken down by institutional sectors in the BPM6 format.
  - Target Completion Date: December 2020
  - Implementation Status: Rescheduled
- Priority Action / Milestone: Prepare revised balance of payments time series on a BPM6-basis for the tentative period 2000–2013 incorporating proposed revisions elaborated during the mission.
  - Target Completion Date: December 2020
  - Implementation Status: Rescheduled
- Priority Action / Milestone: Disseminate a longer balance of payments time series on a BPM6-basis.
  - Target Completion Date: April 2021
  - Implementation Status: Rescheduled

*Source: Section 2 of the provided IMF document.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2022/english/1lcaea2022001.pdf_