## 1. Priority Recommendations ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [1. Priority Recommendations](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2022/english/1mdaea2022005.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2022/english/1mdaea2022005.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2022/english/1mdaea2022005.pdf.json) --- ### Summary of mission outcomes and priority recommendations - Mission: remote TA in national accounts (NA) to the National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova (NBS) during January 17–28, 2022. - Purpose: assist in improving annual GDP estimates for 2014–2020 due to recent changes in population data. - Progress: - Historical annual GDP time series available according to the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA). - Recent TA assisted NBS in: - implementing NACE rev.2; - improving quarterly compilation of GDP estimates by production and expenditure; - applying the commodity flow method; - applying the user cost approach to obtain output of dwelling services; - implementing chain linked volume measures. - Mission outputs: - GDP by production compiled and components of GDP by expenditure reviewed and improved for 2014–2020; - Production and expenditure GDP estimates balanced at current prices and in volume terms; - Estimates of GDP at prices of the previous year compiled by production and expenditure using existing methods and indicators. - New compilation system for GDP by production developed: includes output, intermediate consumption and value added by activity, presented separately for each component and data source; estimates compiled at the section level of NACE, rev.2 for seven years. - Methodological improvements in recording: - trade margin; - consumption of non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH); - current transfers to general government from abroad. - Non-observed economy (NOE): - New NOE estimates compiled using updated LFS data for construction activity (mainly major repairs); - Estimates of agricultural production for own consumption compiled and included. - Micro financial institutions (MFI) data from National Commission of Financial Markets (NCFM) assessed and used to improve financial intermediate services; supply and use framework used to allocate these services and derive household consumption estimates. - Structural business survey (SBS) crosschecked with financial statements at two-digit NACE; differences used to adjust production account aggregates for exhaustiveness. - Components of GDP by expenditure assessed; HBS estimates updated to account for population changes. - GFCF reviewed and separated by type: construction, machinery and equipment, software and databases, research and development, changes in stocks of livestock and trees. - Imports and exports of goods and services updated due to changes in Balance of Payments data. ### Priority Recommendations (from source) - Target Date: June 2022 — Priority Recommendation: Obtain benchmarked quarterly data for 2014-2021 in current value and in volume. Responsible Institution: NBS - Target Date: December 2023 — Priority Recommendation: Develop a compilation system for Supply and Use Tables (SUT). Responsible Institution: NBS ### Priority actions / milestones and target completion dates - Compile quarterly GDP for 2021 and 2022 using the new compilation system. Target Completion Date: June 2022 - Obtain benchmarked quarterly data for 2014–2021 in current value and in volume. Target Completion Date: June 2022 - Develop action plan for SUT implementation. Target Completion Date: December 2022 - Develop further data sources for SUT – Intermediate consumption at two digits of NACE. Target Completion Date: December 2022 - Develop a compilation system for SUT. Target Completion Date: December 2023 ### Major findings and methodological developments - New system/template established to compile production-account components at current prices for each NACE section with breakdowns by data source (SBS, NOE, FISIM, R&D, general government, corrections for exhaustiveness). - For production-account estimates of the non-financial sector three data sources are used: - “5C” sample survey covering 7,000 companies (used for quarterly GDP estimates); - SBS including 14,000 companies (used for annual GDP estimates); - Financial statements covering all companies. - Comparisons of “Sales” across 5C, SBS and financial statements showed differences typically in the interval of 0-10 percent. Correction coefficients calculated to adjust SBS exhaustiveness. - Quarterly estimates for year T should be compiled using 5C financial statement and an average ratio from the previous two years, since financial statement annual data are available in year T+1. - Construction: business companies often sell unfinished dwellings; finished-work value for newly built flats averages around 20 percent of the price of the flat. Methodology developed to estimate finished work using supply of goods used for major repairs and cost of labor, with materials imported by CN codes used to derive supply. ### Compilation-system template (selected rows and values) - R old total Output: 1,853,523 2,119,691 2,240,034 2,195,180 2,319,968 2,761,671 2,481,980 - R old total Int. cons.: 1,018,146 1,155,344 1,202,719 1,163,364 1,221,986 1,305,270 1,147,999 - R old total Val. add.: 835,377 964,347 1,037,315 1,031,816 1,097,981 1,456,402 1,333,980 - R new total Output: 1,710,745 2,133,073 1,866,453 1,544,482 1,946,475 3,015,220 2,479,368 - R new total Int. cons.: 1,002,833 1,195,255 784,327 637,094 844,953 757,380 659,956 - R new total Val. add.: 707,912 937,819 1,082,126 907,389 1,101,522 2,257,840 1,819,412 - R new SBS Output: 857,357 940,265 828,707 326,744 605,024 1,423,899 1,084,967 - R new SBS Int. cons.: 696,827 710,116 450,524 162,160 317,774 326,166 342,572 - R new SBS Val. add.: 160,530 230,148 378,182 164,584 287,250 1,097,734 742,394 - R new NOE Output: 253,378 306,445 238,984 306,432 371,820 401,697 369,453 - R new NOE Int. cons.: 62,374 72,752 35,694 117,318 146,784 112,928 95,728 - R new NOE Val. add.: 191,004 233,693 203,290 189,114 225,036 288,770 273,726 - R new fisim Int. cons.: 2,202 1,254 2,200 2,425 5,115 1,324 2,076 - R new fisim Val. add.: -2,202 -1,254 -2,200 -2,425 -5,115 -1,324 -2,076 - R new budget Output: 594,086 655,310 665,130 726,295 780,596 1,022,318 1,041,689 - R new budget Int. cons.: 236,615 236,634 223,259 263,371 275,994 278,639 224,866 - R new budget Val. add.: 357,471 418,676 441,871 462,924 504,602 743,679 816,822 - R new exaust Output: 5,925 231,053 133,633 185,012 189,035 167,305 -16,741 - R new exaust Int. cons.: 4,815 174,498 72,649 91,820 99,286 38,324 -5,286 - R new exaust Val. add.: 1,109 56,555 60,984 93,192 89,749 128,981 -11,455 ### Estimation of finished works for new build flats (values) - Output / IC / VA by year: - 2020: 6,327,482 3,311,559 3,015,923 - 2019: 6,066,297 3,174,402 2,891,895 - 2018: 5,292,631 2,766,453 2,526,178 - 2017: 4,910,397 2,567,771 2,342,626 - 2016: 4,912,914 2,581,224 2,331,689 - 2015: 4,463,336 2,332,235 2,131,101 - 2014: 4,444,476 2,305,967 2,138,509 - These estimates incorporated within the NOE of construction activity. All calculations made by NA staff. ### Household own production of agriculture households — current prices (selected) - Total and by product: - Total: 3,782,194 3,495,403 3,683,599 3,366,626 2,929,153 2,675,986 2,537,840 - Bread products: 1,292,424 1,247,626 1,538,250 1,399,528 1,342,556 1,285,850 1,326,512 - Meat products: 641,197 617,135 444,652 338,462 52,240 167,469 228,644 - Milk products: 1,238,157 1,122,378 1,045,719 1,095,142 873,289 759,613 625,745 - Wine: 610,415 508,264 654,979 533,494 661,068 463,055 356,938 - Own production recorded as value added and output within agriculture activity. - Method: agriculture staff collect used arable land by product from municipalities and use productivity indicators per hectare; animal production survey data assessed and extrapolated. ### Financial intermediation services (FISIM) and micro financial institutions (MFI) - FISIM calculated in compliance with 2008 SNA, separately for national and foreign currency; allocated by institutional sectors and by final consumption and intermediate consumption; FISIM for intermediate consumption allocated by activity at two digits of NACE, rev.2. - Output and intermediate consumption of bank institutions reviewed; output of the central bank allocated to intermediate consumption of banks. - New data sources for non-bank financial intermediaries (MFI): included in the 5C sample and financial statement data; new data for 2020 obtained from NCFM. - Income approach used to derive output of MFI for 2020 using: profit before taxes from financial statements crosschecked with NCFM, compensation of employees and administrative expenses from NCFM, intermediate consumption, and consumption of fixed capital from 5C. These 2020 data used as benchmark to derive data for 2014–2020. - NA staff can calculate FISIM of MFI when detailed NCFM data for loans, interest rates, and institutional sectors are available. - Using supply-use framework, output of banking services less FISIM allocated by institutional sectors; households’ sector data derived as a residual (output plus import minus export minus intermediate consumption) and included in private household consumption. ### Imputed rent — methodology and results - Imputed rent calculated by NA staff in 2018 based on 2014 census results of occupied dwellings using user cost approach: output = net operating surplus + consumption of fixed capital + other taxes on production + intermediate consumption. - Compilation includes estimates of stock of dwellings by region, average age, service life by construction type, land under dwellings, new build dwellings, price for construction per square meter for individual and business construction. - Census results for population and dwellings and average square meters per person assessed; demographic data used to estimate migration and change in occupied dwellings per year; NA staff updated stock of occupied dwellings to obtain new estimates for imputed rent. - Table 5 values: - new: 11,295,300 12,209,937 12,607,806 12,895,660 13,169,118 13,413,236 13,850,957 - old: 11,295,300 12,296,898 12,749,065 13,097,131 13,753,189 14,018,336 13,786,177 ### Other methodological assistance and updates - Assistance provided for recording R&D, transfers to general government from the Balance of Payments, and trade margin compilation. - Updated data available for consumption of fixed capital for general government sector. ### GDP estimates for 2014–2020 — headline figures - GDP - new: - 2014 131,964,258 - 2015 146,740,205 - 2016 159,010,419 - 2017 176,007,293 - 2018 189,062,627 - 2019 206,256,239 - 2020 199,733,683 - Diff(new/old) - %: - -1.1 0.7 -1.1 -1.6 -1.8 -2.0 -2.8 - GDP - old: - 2014 133,481,634 - 2015 145,753,642 - 2016 160,814,564 - 2017 178,880,890 - 2018 192,508,553 - 2019 210,378,059 - 2020 205,432,298 - NA staff compiled GDP components by production at prices of the previous year using historic volume indices and deflators by activity. ### Annual GDP by expenditure — summary of improvements - Annual estimates of GDP by expenditure for 2014–2020 reviewed and improved. - HBS, personal services, and imputed rent updated due to population changes. - New data sources led to compilation of household consumption of other financial services. - Imports/exports of goods and services updated due to Balance of Payments changes. - HFCE compiled at four-digit COICOP according to domestic concept; national concept obtained by deducting non-residents consumption on national territory and adding consumption of residents abroad. ### HFCE, commodity flow, NPISH, GFCF, GFCE — key points and tables - HFCE recorded at purchasers’ prices, including trade and transport margins, non-deductible VAT, and import duties. - HFCE main compilation method: commodity flow approach (supply of goods and services including imports plus domestic production less exports). - Table 7: commodity flow aggregated table at two digits of COICOP (values shown as: HBS | HFCE | Imports | Exports | Domestic Production). - Total: 69,476 | 125,211 | 43,845 | 14,689 | 96,056 - 01. Food and non-alcoholic beverages — 28,851 | 40,050 | 10,581 | 7,738 | 37,208 - 02. Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics — 1,020 | 7,813 | 3,669 | 3,023 | 7,167 - 03. Clothing and footwear — 8,029 | 5,696 | 3,137 | 518 | 3,077 - 04. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels — 12,295 | 21,100 | 2,725 | 2 | 18,376 - 05. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance — 2,711 | 12,094 | 6,867 | 1,352 | 6,579 - 06. Health — 4,312 | 5,232 | 4,290 | 1,461 | 2,404 - 07. Transport — 3,298 | 11,084 | 7,952 | 138 | 3,270 - 08. Communication — 3,053 | 6,452 | 663 | 11 | 5,800 - 09. Recreation and culture — 968 | 3,819 | 2,315 | 82 | 1,587 - 10. Education — 495 | 1,398 | 0 | 0 | 1,398 - 11. Education — 1,282 | 3,769 | 0 | 0 | 3,769 - 12. Miscellaneous goods and services — 3,162 | 6,704 | 1,645 | 364 | 5,423 - Product balances applied for: white, flour, bread, meat and meat products, milk and milk products, and grape and wine; about half of these products produced within agricultural households; commodity flow method used to derive estimates of own consumption and overall household consumption. - Data sources: agriculture and industrial production, services, imports and exports of services, tax data, HBS data, and other administrative data. - Imputed rent estimates impacted by new census data for population and dwellings; demographic data used to assess number and square meters of occupied dwellings for 2014–2020. - New data sources available for financial and communication services; supply/use framework used to compile household consumption of other financial and communication services. ### Price treatment and deflation - HFCE estimates compiled in the average prices of the previous year. - CPI at four digits level of COICOP used to deflate current annual data. - Volume measures of GFCF obtained using composite deflators of domestic PPI and EU PPI for non-domestic market at two and three digits of classification of products by activity for imported goods, adjusted for currency exchange rate. - Detailed import and export of services data used to compile composite deflators; NA staff calculates export unit value index (UVI) and hybrid import price index consisting of import UVI for homogenous goods and for capital goods EU PPI for non-domestic market. ### NPISH - NPISHs sector includes legal entities that provide goods and services to households not sold at market prices. - Special annual questionnaire used to derive production account and NPISH consumption estimates. - Mission assessed data and assisted staff to obtain NPISH estimates for 2014–2020. - Final consumption of NPISH obtained from production account component – output less the revenues obtained from production. ### GFCF - Produced fixed assets include machinery and equipment, buildings, R&D, software, and cultivated assets; major repairs to buildings included. - Mission reviewed GFCF using investment survey and commodity flow method. - Commodity flow method used to derive machinery and equipment estimates using list of capital goods by CN codes for imports and exports; trade and transport margins added to imports, exports, and domestic production at basic prices. - Same approach used for building assets and major repairs: list of construction materials for imports, exports, and local production; construction materials for current repairs subtracted to compile materials supply at basic prices; converted to purchasers’ prices by adding non-deductible VAT, trade, and transport margins. - Using ratio of materials to output of construction companies and private construction, estimate of output is obtained. - Investment survey used for compiling cultivated biological resources, mineral exploration and evaluation, and computer software and databases. - NA staff compile R&D estimates using import, export, general government data and Frascati survey data. ### GFCE and national accounts balancing - Government intermediate consumption and value added compiled using detailed government expenses by economic categories and functions; output split to collective and individual services using functions. - GFCE compiled by adding social transfers in kind to output and deducting sales. - New data for consumption of fixed capital integrated in production account and GFCE. - Import and export of services compiled by the Central bank; updated due to Balance of Payments changes. - Mission assisted NA staff in balancing GDP estimates by production and expenditure simultaneously for current value and in prices of the previous year. ### Officials met during the mission - Oleg Cara — Director General of NBS - Iurie Mocanu — Deputy Director General of NBS - Andrian Tataru — Head of General Division for Macroeconomic Statistics - Irina Cemirtan — Head of National Accounts Division *Source: 1mdaea2022005 - 1. Priority Recommendations (PDF chapter/section).* ### 1. Priority Recommendations_____________________________________________________________________________ 5 ### 1. Priority Recommendations ### Summary of mission outcomes and priority recommendations - A national accounts statistics mission provided remote technical assistance (TA) in national accounts (NA) to the National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova (NBS) during January 17–28, 2022. The mission assisted in improving the annual GDP estimates for the period 2014–2020, due to the recent changes in the population data. - The NBS has received extensive TA in recent years and has made good progress in improving the NA compilation. Historical annual GDP time series are available according to the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA) recommendations. - Recent TA missions assisted the NBS in: - implementing NACE rev.2; - improving quarterly compilation of GDP estimates by production and expenditure; - applying the commodity flow method; - applying the user cost approach to obtain output of dwelling services; - implementing chain linked volume measures. - The mission assisted the NBS in compiling GDP estimates for 2014–2020: - GDP by production was compiled and components of GDP by expenditure were reviewed and improved; - Both GDP estimates (production and expenditure) were balanced at current prices and in volume terms; - Estimates of GDP at prices of the previous year were compiled by production and expenditure components using existing methods and indicators. - A new compilation system for deriving GDP by production was developed. It includes all data sources used for compiling production account aggregates: output, intermediate consumption and value added by activity. Data are presented separately for each component and data source. Estimates were compiled at the section level of NACE, rev.2 for seven years. - Methodological improvements were made in recording: - the trade margin; - consumption of non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH); - current transfers to general government from abroad. - The mission reviewed new estimates for the non-observed economy (NOE) compiled using updated LFS data. New NOE estimates were compiled for construction activity, mainly major repairs. Estimates of agricultural production for own consumption were compiled and included. - The mission assessed new data on micro financial institutions (MFI) registered in the National Commission of Financial Markets (NCFM). The data were used to improve financial intermediate services. The supply and use framework was used to allocate these services among institutional sectors and to derive estimates for household consumption. - Structural business survey (SBS) data were crosschecked against financial statement data at the two-digit level of NACE. Differences were used to adjust production account aggregates for exhaustiveness. - Components of GDP by expenditure were assessed. HBS estimates were updated to account for population changes. - GFCF data were reviewed and separated by type: construction, machinery and equipment, software and databases, research and development, changes in stocks of livestock and trees. Imports and exports of goods and services were updated due to changes in Balance of Payments data. ### Table 1. Priority Recommendations (from source) - Target Date: June 2022 — Priority Recommendation: Obtain benchmarked quarterly data for 2014-2021 in current value and in volume. Responsible Institution: NBS - Target Date: December 2023 — Priority Recommendation: Develop a compilation system for Supply and Use Tables (SUT). Responsible Institution: NBS ### Detailed technical assessment — Priority actions / milestones and target completion dates - Compile quarterly GDP for 2021 and 2022 using the new compilation system. Target Completion Date: June 2022 - Obtain benchmarked quarterly data for 2014–2021 in current value and in volume. Target Completion Date: June 2022 - Develop action plan for SUT implementation. Target Completion Date: December 2022 - Develop further data sources for SUT – Intermediate consumption at two digits of NACE. Target Completion Date: December 2022 - Develop a compilation system for SUT. Target Completion Date: December 2023 ### Major findings and methodological developments - A new system/template (Table 2 example) was established to compile production-account components at current prices for each NACE section, including breakdowns by data source (SBS, NOE, FISIM, R&D, general government, corrections for exhaustiveness). - For production-account estimates of the non-financial sector three data sources are used: - “5C” sample survey covering 7,000 companies (used for quarterly GDP estimates); - SBS including 14,000 companies (used for annual GDP estimates); - Financial statements covering all companies. - Comparisons of “Sales” across 5C, SBS and financial statements showed differences typically in the interval of 0-10 percent. Correction coefficients were calculated to adjust SBS exhaustiveness. - Quarterly estimates for year T should be compiled using 5C financial statement and an average ratio from the previous two years, since financial statement annual data are available in year T+1. - Construction practice: business companies often sell unfinished dwellings; finished-work value for newly built flats averages around 20 percent of the price of the flat. The mission developed a methodology to estimate finished work using supply of goods used for major repairs and cost of labor, with materials imported by CN codes used to derive supply. ### Template example (selected rows and values from compilation system — Table 2) - R old total Output: 1,853,523 2,119,691 2,240,034 2,195,180 2,319,968 2,761,671 2,481,980 - R old total Int. cons.: 1,018,146 1,155,344 1,202,719 1,163,364 1,221,986 1,305,270 1,147,999 - R old total Val. add.: 835,377 964,347 1,037,315 1,031,816 1,097,981 1,456,402 1,333,980 - R new total Output: 1,710,745 2,133,073 1,866,453 1,544,482 1,946,475 3,015,220 2,479,368 - R new total Int. cons.: 1,002,833 1,195,255 784,327 637,094 844,953 757,380 659,956 - R new total Val. add.: 707,912 937,819 1,082,126 907,389 1,101,522 2,257,840 1,819,412 - R new SBS Output: 857,357 940,265 828,707 326,744 605,024 1,423,899 1,084,967 - R new SBS Int. cons.: 696,827 710,116 450,524 162,160 317,774 326,166 342,572 - R new SBS Val. add.: 160,530 230,148 378,182 164,584 287,250 1,097,734 742,394 - R new NOE Output: 253,378 306,445 238,984 306,432 371,820 401,697 369,453 - R new NOE Int. cons.: 62,374 72,752 35,694 117,318 146,784 112,928 95,728 - R new NOE Val. add.: 191,004 233,693 203,290 189,114 225,036 288,770 273,726 - R new fisim Int. cons.: 2,202 1,254 2,200 2,425 5,115 1,324 2,076 - R new fisim Val. add.: -2,202 -1,254 -2,200 -2,425 -5,115 -1,324 -2,076 - R new budget Output: 594,086 655,310 665,130 726,295 780,596 1,022,318 1,041,689 - R new budget Int. cons.: 236,615 236,634 223,259 263,371 275,994 278,639 224,866 - R new budget Val. add.: 357,471 418,676 441,871 462,924 504,602 743,679 816,822 - R new exaust Output: 5,925 231,053 133,633 185,012 189,035 167,305 -16,741 - R new exaust Int. cons.: 4,815 174,498 72,649 91,820 99,286 38,324 -5,286 - R new exaust Val. add.: 1,109 56,555 60,984 93,192 89,749 128,981 -11,455 ### Estimation of finished works for new build flats (Table 3) - Output / IC / VA by year (values in source, presented here): - 2020: 6,327,482 3,311,559 3,015,923 - 2019: 6,066,297 3,174,402 2,891,895 - 2018: 5,292,631 2,766,453 2,526,178 - 2017: 4,910,397 2,567,771 2,342,626 - 2016: 4,912,914 2,581,224 2,331,689 - 2015: 4,463,336 2,332,235 2,131,101 - 2014: 4,444,476 2,305,967 2,138,509 - These estimates were incorporated within the NOE of the construction activity. All calculations were made by the NA staff. ### Household own production of agriculture households — current prices (Table 4) - Total and by product (values in source): - Total: 3,782,194 3,495,403 3,683,599 3,366,626 2,929,153 2,675,986 2,537,840 - Bread products: 1,292,424 1,247,626 1,538,250 1,399,528 1,342,556 1,285,850 1,326,512 - Meat products: 641,197 617,135 444,652 338,462 52,240 167,469 228,644 - Milk products: 1,238,157 1,122,378 1,045,719 1,095,142 873,289 759,613 625,745 - Wine: 610,415 508,264 654,979 533,494 661,068 463,055 356,938 - Own production was recorded as value added and output within agriculture activity. - Agriculture staff collect used arable land by product from municipalities and use productivity indicators per hectare to derive output. For animal production, survey data are being assessed and extrapolated to the target population. ### Financial intermediation services (FISIM) and micro financial institutions (MFI) - FISIM is calculated in compliance with 2008 SNA, separately for national and foreign currency. It is allocated by institutional sectors and by final consumption and intermediate consumption. FISIM for intermediate consumption is allocated by activity at two digits of NACE, rev.2. - Output and intermediate consumption of bank institutions were reviewed. Output of the central bank is allocated to intermediate consumption of banks. - New data sources were available for non-bank financial intermediaries (MFI). MFI are included in the 5C sample and financial statement data; new data for 2020 were obtained from NCFM. - Income approach was used to derive output of MFI for 2020 using available sources: profit before taxes from financial statements crosschecked with NCFM, compensation of employees and administrative expenses from NCFM, intermediate consumption, and consumption of fixed capital from 5C. These 2020 data were used as benchmark to derive data for 2014–2020. - NA staff can calculate FISIM of MFI when detailed NCFM data for loans, interest rates, and institutional sectors are available. - Using supply-use framework, output of banking services less FISIM was allocated by institutional sectors. Bank expenses included in intermediate consumption for financial, non-financial sectors and general government were available. Households’ sector data were derived as a residual (output plus import minus export minus intermediate consumption) and included in private household consumption. ### Imputed rent — methodology and results (Table 5) - Imputed rent was calculated by NA staff in 2018 based on the 2014 census results of occupied dwellings. User cost approach applied: output equals net operating surplus + consumption of fixed capital + other taxes on production + intermediate consumption. - Compilation includes estimates of stock of dwellings by region, average age, service life by construction type, land under dwellings, new build dwellings, and price for construction per square meter for individual and business construction. - Census results for population and dwellings and average square meters per person were assessed; demographic data used to estimate migration and change in occupied dwellings per year. NA staff updated stock of occupied dwellings to obtain new estimates for imputed rent. - Table 5 values (labelled "new" and "old"): - new: 11,295,300 12,209,937 12,607,806 12,895,660 13,169,118 13,413,236 13,850,957 - old: 11,295,300 12,296,898 12,749,065 13,097,131 13,753,189 14,018,336 13,786,177 ### Other methodological assistance and updates - Methodological assistance provided for recording R&D, transfers to general government from the Balance of Payments, and trade margin compilation. - Updated data were available for consumption of fixed capital for general government sector. ### GDP estimates for 2014–2020 — headline figures (Table 6) - GDP - new: - 2014 131,964,258 - 2015 146,740,205 - 2016 159,010,419 - 2017 176,007,293 - 2018 189,062,627 - 2019 206,256,239 - 2020 199,733,683 - Diff(new/old) - %: - -1.1 0.7 -1.1 -1.6 -1.8 -2.0 -2.8 - GDP - old: - 2014 133,481,634 - 2015 145,753,642 - 2016 160,814,564 - 2017 178,880,890 - 2018 192,508,553 - 2019 210,378,059 - 2020 205,432,298 - NA staff, with the mission, compiled GDP components by production at prices of the previous year. Historic volume indices and deflators by activity were used to obtain output and value added in volume measures. ### Annual GDP by expenditure — summary of improvements - Annual estimates of GDP by expenditure components for 2014–2020 were reviewed and improved. - HBS, personal services, and imputed rent were updated due to population changes. - New data sources led to compilation of household consumption of other financial services. - Imports/exports of goods and services were updated due to changes in Balance of Payments data. - HFCE is compiled at four-digit COICOP according to the domestic concept; national concept obtained by deducting non-residents consumption on national territory and adding consumption of residents abroad. *Source: 1mdaea2022005 - 1. Priority Recommendations (PDF chapter/section).* ### 39. HFCE is recorded at purchasers’ prices, including trade and transport margins, non- ### 39. HFCE is recorded at purchasers’ prices, including trade and transport margins, non-deductible VAT, and import duties ### Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) compilation and commodity flow - HFCE main compilation method: commodity flow approach. - Estimates derived from supply of goods and services (including imports plus domestic production) less exports. - Table 7: commodity flow aggregated table at two digits of COICOP (values shown as: HBS | HFCE | Imports | Exports | Domestic Production). - Total: 69,476 | 125,211 | 43,845 | 14,689 | 96,056 - COICOP breakdown (Code. COICOP — HBS | HFCE | Imports | Exports | Domestic Production): - 01. Food and non-alcoholic beverages — 28,851 | 40,050 | 10,581 | 7,738 | 37,208 - 02. Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics — 1,020 | 7,813 | 3,669 | 3,023 | 7,167 - 03. Clothing and footwear — 8,029 | 5,696 | 3,137 | 518 | 3,077 - 04. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels — 12,295 | 21,100 | 2,725 | 2 | 18,376 - 05. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance — 2,711 | 12,094 | 6,867 | 1,352 | 6,579 - 06. Health — 4,312 | 5,232 | 4,290 | 1,461 | 2,404 - 07. Transport — 3,298 | 11,084 | 7,952 | 138 | 3,270 - 08. Communication — 3,053 | 6,452 | 663 | 11 | 5,800 - 09. Recreation and culture — 968 | 3,819 | 2,315 | 82 | 1,587 - 10. Education — 495 | 1,398 | 0 | 0 | 1,398 - 11. Education — 1,282 | 3,769 | 0 | 0 | 3,769 - 12. Miscellaneous goods and services — 3,162 | 6,704 | 1,645 | 364 | 5,423 ### Balances, own consumption, and product-specific adjustments - Product balances applied for: white, flour, bread, meat and meat products, milk and milk products, and grape and wine. - About half of these products are produced within agricultural households; commodity flow method used to derive estimates of produced goods for own consumption and overall household consumption. - Mission assessed and improved estimates of balances; estimate of bread and bread products updated for population changes. ### Data sources and demographic adjustments - Data sources used: agriculture and industrial production, services, imports and exports of services, tax data, HBS data, and other administrative data. - Mission and NA staff improved estimates of imputed rent impacted by new census data for population and dwellings. - Current demographic data used to assess number and square meters of occupied dwellings for the period 2014–2020. ### Financial and communication services - New data sources available for financial services during the mission. - Based on supply/use framework, consumption of other financial services from households was compiled. - Same procedure established for household consumption of communication services. ### Price treatment and deflation - HFCF estimates compiled in the average prices of the previous year. - CPI at four digits level of COICOP used to deflate the current annual data. - Volume measures of GFCF obtained using composite deflators of domestic producer price index (PPI) and EU PPI for non-domestic market at two and three digits of classification of products by activity for imported goods, adjusted for currency exchange rate. - Detailed data for import and export of services used to compile composite deflators; NA staff calculates export unit value index (UVI) and hybrid import price index consisting of import UVI for homogenous goods and for capital goods EU PPI for non-domestic market. ### Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISHs) - NPISHs sector includes legal entities that provide goods and services to households that are not sold at market prices. - Special annual questionnaire used to derive estimates for production account and for NPISH consumption. - Mission assessed data and assisted staff to obtain estimates on NPISH for the period 2014–2020. - Final consumption of NPISH obtained from production account component – output less the revenues obtained from production. ### Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) - Produced fixed assets include machinery and equipment, buildings, R&D, software, and cultivated assets. Major repairs to buildings are included. - Mission reviewed compiled estimates of GFCF using data from the investment survey and estimates from the commodity flow method. - Commodity flow method used to derive estimates on machinery and equipments using list of capital goods by codes of combined nomenclature (CN) for imports and exports; trade and transport margins added to imports, exports, and domestic production at basic prices. - Same approach used for building assets and major repairs in construction: list of construction materials and other goods used in construction of dwellings/buildings collected for imports, exports, and local production; construction materials for current repairs subtracted to compile materials supply at basic prices; converted to purchasers’ prices by adding non-deductible VAT, trade, and transport margins. - Using ratio of materials to output of construction companies and private construction, estimate of output is obtained. - Investment survey data used for compiling estimates of cultivated biological resources, mineral exploration and evaluation, and computer software and databases. - NA staff compile estimates of R&D using data on import, export, general government data and data from Frascati survey. ### Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) and national accounts balancing - NA staff compile estimates of intermediate consumption and value added using detailed data for government expenses by economic categories and functions; output split to collective and individual services using functions. - GFCE compiled by adding to the output social transfers in kind and deducting sales. - Mission reviewed staff-compiled estimates; new data for consumption of fixed capital were integrated in the production account and GFCE. - Import and export of services compiled by the Central bank; data on import and export of goods and services updated due to changes of the Balance of payment data. - Mission assisted NA staff in balancing GDP estimates by production and expenditure approaches simultaneously for current value and in prices of the previous year. ### Officials met during the mission - Oleg Cara — Director General of NBS - Iurie Mocanu — Deputy Director General of NBS - Andrian Tataru — Head of General Division for Macroeconomic Statistics - Irina Cemirtan — Head of National Accounts Division *Source: IMF mission report text (chapter on HFCE, commodity flow, NPISH, GFCF, GFCE, and data improvements).* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2022/english/1mdaea2022005.pdf_