## 1civea2023004

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### Executive summary — context and program status
- Purpose: EFF/ECF-supported program to safeguard macroeconomic stability and support Côte d’Ivoire’s transformation towards upper middle-income status over the medium-term.
- Macroeconomic setting: Broadly unchanged from May 2023 program approval; growth resilient and inflationary pressures receding; external headwinds and pressure on regional reserves persist.
- Program implementation: All performance criteria and structural benchmarks met to date (end-June 2023 and end-September 2023 SBs met).
- Political and social context:
  - Local elections in September peaceful with highest voter participation in a decade; RHDP emerged with a strong lead.
  - Government Social Program (PSGouv2) prioritizes investment in vulnerable communities, including northern border regions.
  - Despite regional security deterioration and high refugee arrivals during 2023, security situation in Côte d’Ivoire remained stable.
- Date: November 14, 2023.

### Main policy commitments
- Fiscal and debt sustainability:
  - 2024 budget: fiscal consolidation anchored by commitment to increase tax revenue by an additional 0.5 percent of GDP.
  - Objective: convergence to the 3 percent of GDP WAEMU fiscal deficit target by 2025 and sustain a moderate debt distress rating.
  - Complementary measures: improve spending efficiency and unwind crisis-era blanket subsidies.
- Domestic revenue mobilization (MTRS):
  - Authorities committed to developing and implementing a medium-term revenue strategy (MTRS) to boost tax revenue into the medium term.
  - Implementation requires significant stakeholder engagement and buy-in for tax system overhaul.
- Structural reforms priorities:
  - Business climate improvements, increased private sector involvement.
  - Transparency and accountability of public enterprises, governance and financial integrity (AML/CFT), human capital investment, financial inclusion, and climate resilience.

### Recent economic developments and program performance (selected figures)
- Growth and activity:
  - Real GDP growth: 6.4 percent for 2023 (projected), down from 6.7 percent in 2022.
  - Economic activity robust in 2023H1; supply shocks to cocoa, coffee, and cotton noted.
- Inflation:
  - Food price inflation: 5.6 percent in August.
  - Consumer price inflation: averaged 4.8 percent in 2023H1; fell to 4.2 percent by September; expected to average 4.7 percent in 2023.
- Fiscal developments:
  - End-June 2023 tax revenues: 8 percent of GDP, a 0.7 percent increase over the 2016–22 average for the same period.
  - 2023 fiscal deficit expected to fall by 1.6 points to 5.2 percent of GDP.
  - October 2023 petrol and diesel pump prices increased by about 7 and 9 percent, respectively.
- Financial sector:
  - Average interbank interest rates rose ~300 basis points between early 2022 and mid-2023; eased ~100 basis points after BCEAO sovereign debt purchases in July and September 2023.
  - Credit to the private sector growth: from 7.9 percent y/y in 2022Q4 to 18.9 percent in 2023Q2.
  - Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets: 13.3 percent in June 2023 (from 13.1 percent at end-2022).
  - Non-performing loans: 7.2 percent in June 2023 (from 7.8 percent in December 2022).
- External sector:
  - Cocoa price: projected 30 percent jump boosting export earnings in 2023-24.
  - Current account deficit: estimated to have peaked at 6.9 percent of GDP in 2022 and on track to fall below 6 percent in 2023.
  - Capital inflows insufficient to fully finance current account deficit; continued pressure on official and regional FX reserves.
- Program performance (end-June 2023):
  - All QPCs and ITs met; two end-September SBs met.
  - Plan prepared and started to manage and collect outstanding tax arrears; draft law on national debt policy adopted September 28, 2023.

### Economic outlook and risks
- Staff projections (near-term 2024):
  - Output growth: 6.5 percent in 2024.
  - Inflation: annual average 3.8 percent in 2024; expected to fall within BCEAO 1–3 percent target range by end-2024.
  - Current account deficit: projected to narrow to 4.3 percent of GDP in 2024.
  - Overall fiscal deficit (including grants): projected to decline to 4 percent of GDP in 2024.
- Authorities’ forecasts (2024):
  - Growth: 7 percent.
  - Inflation: 4.1 percent.
  - Current account deficit: 5.3 percent of GDP.
- Medium-term (2025–26) staff projections:
  - Output growth: around 6.4 percent over 2025-26, converging to estimated long-term potential ~6 percent.
  - Inflation: about 2.5 percent in 2025-26.
  - Current account deficit: about 3 percent of GDP by 2026.
  - Fiscal stance: fiscal deficit projected to reach WAEMU target of 3 percent of GDP by 2025.
- Key risks:
  - External: high global interest rates, cautious investor behavior, continued pressure on pooled FX reserves.
  - Domestic: weather and sanitary shocks to agriculture, tighter financial conditions, and need for stakeholder buy-in for MTRS and structural reforms.
  - Annex I: risks tilted to the downside; intensification of regional conflicts and social discontent assessed as High likelihood / High impact.

### Fiscal policy framework and 2024 measures (exact targets and measures)
- 2024 budget aims:
  - Consolidate fiscal deficit to 4 percent of GDP (0.1 percentage point lower than initial program projections; 1.2 percentage point reduction relative to 2023 target).
  - Tax revenue projected to increase to 14.5 percent of GDP.
  - Tax revenue increase: 0.6 percent of GDP total; 0.5 percent from new high quality and permanent tax policy and administration measures; 0.1 percent from higher export tax revenue due to improved terms of trade.
- Key tax policy and administration measures (SB timing):
  - Eliminate tax exemptions (VAT on non-staple food items and investment code) — end-September 2024 SB.
  - Tax administration reforms for property taxes.
  - Increase cacao registration rate.
  - Tax administration enhancements: transfer pricing, tobacco traceability, automated VAT deduction management at customs — end-June 2024 SB.
- Expenditure adjustments:
  - 2024 expenditure: 1.1 percent of GDP lower than 2023; current expenditure down 1.4 percent of GDP; capital expenditure up 0.3 percent of GDP.
  - Wage bill curtailed by 0.2 percent of GDP; hiring policy: one new public servant for every two retirees (except health and education).
  - Capital spending targeted to infrastructure, education, health, security; northern border areas prioritized for refugees.
- Fuel pricing mechanism:
  - Minimum taxable base of 25 percent of international parity prices for fuel.
  - Nominal monthly cap and modalities if international fuel prices move by more than 2.5 percent over preceding 3 months.
  - October 2023 pump price increases reestablished taxable base above 25 percent minimum and returned petrol-related tax revenue close to historical average.
- Social protection:
  - World Bank supported project disbursed two quarterly payments to additional 100,000 beneficiary households in 2023 (about 2/3 rural); estimated to cover ~20 percent of vulnerable population.
  - Planned increases of 100,000 new beneficiary households in each of the next two years.
  - Contingency: offset higher security spending via capital expenditure cuts if needed.

### Revenue mobilization, PFM, and debt management
- Domestic revenue mobilization (DRM) and MTRS:
  - MTRS adoption and implementation essential to sustain higher DRM into medium term.
  - Authorities aim to increase tax revenue towards WAEMU tax revenue target of 20 percent of GDP (MEFP, ¶25).
  - Review of tax policy and customs administration enhancements underway with TA support.
- PFM improvements and commitments:
  - Expand SIGOBE to national representatives abroad and public establishments.
  - Independent evaluation of SOE boards; strengthen SOE debt monitoring.
  - Enhance PPP management framework based on PIMA and integrate C-PIMA and green PFM recommendations.
  - Structural benchmarks:
    - Enforce online public procurement for at least 10 percent of ordinary operations in 2023Q4 (end-December 2023 SB); increase to 50 percent over January–June 2024 (end-July 2024 SB).
    - Limit direct procurement to 20 percent of total contracts.
    - Develop timetable to close government accounts with commercial banks to enable full TSA implementation (December 2023 SB).
- Debt management:
  - New law on national debt policy adopted; reorganized Direction Générale des Financements (debt department) to be fully operational by end-2023.
  - Updated MTDS for 2023-2026 to optimize borrowing.

### Program financing, gaps, and IMF role (2023–26 financial schedule and exact figures)
- Program status: fully financed with assurances from multilateral and bilateral partners for next 12 months; continued reserve pressures greater than anticipated.
- Projected cumulative external financing requirements (Billions of CFA francs; projections and cumulative 2023-26):
  - A. External Financing Requirements:
    - 2023: 3,465
    - 2024: 3,981
    - 2025: 3,595
    - 2026: 3,759
    - 2023-26 Cumulative: 14,800
  - Current account deficit excl. official transfers:
    - 2023: 3,074
    - 2024: 2,497
    - 2025: 2,091
    - 2026: 1,973
    - Cumulative: 9,635
  - Official sector amortization + net acquisition of fin assets (Cumulative: 5,823; yearly broken down in source).
  - Change in official reserves (excl. IMF; + = increase):
    - 2023: -722
    - 2024: -132
    - 2025: -179
    - 2026: 376
    - Cumulative: -658
  - B. External Financing Sources:
    - 2023: 2,295
    - 2024: 2,961
    - 2025: 2,711
    - 2026: 3,204
    - Cumulative: 11,172
    - Project financing (cumulative 2023-26): 5,057 (annual breakdown in source).
    - Government gross borrowing from private sector cumulative: 1,429; of which Eurobonds cumulative: 1,225 (annual entries provided).
  - C. Financing Gap (= A - B):
    - 2023: 1,169
    - 2024: 1,020
    - 2025: 884
    - 2026: 556
    - Cumulative: 3,628
  - D. Expected Budget Financing from Official Sector (Cumulative: 1,526):
    - World Bank cumulative: 480
    - AfDB cumulative: 200
    - Bilateral creditors cumulative: 819
  - E. Residual Financing Gap:
    - 2023: 604
    - 2024: 601
    - 2025: 599
    - 2026: 299
    - Cumulative: 2,102
    - IMF ECF Financing (cumulative 2023-26): 701 (annual: 201; 200; 200; 100)
    - IMF EFF Financing (cumulative 2023-26): 1,401 (annual: 403; 400; 399; 199)
  - Memorandum:
    - Change in official reserves incl. IMF financing (Cumulative 2023-26): 538
    - Nominal GDP (Billions of CFA francs): 2023: 52,125; 2024: 56,570; 2025: 61,337; 2026: 66,380
- Summary: Projected cumulative financing gap of about CFAF 3.6 trillion (or 6.3 percent of GDP) to be covered by bilateral and multilateral budget support; Fund financing would cover over half of the gap over 2023-26.

### Program risks, debt sustainability, and safeguards
- Implementation risks:
  - Mitigated by satisfactory track record under previous Fund programs (2016-20 and 2012–15).
  - Risks increase if regional stability deteriorates or global financial conditions tighten; presidential election in 2025 a potential risk.
- Capacity to repay the Fund:
  - Fund credit outstanding projected to rise from 3.5 percent of GDP in 2023 to peak 4.1 percent of GDP in 2025.
  - Debt service indicators for government revenue and exports peak in 2024 and 2025 above the 75th percentile for PRGT comparators.
- Safeguards:
  - 2023 safeguards assessment update of the BCEAO found continued robust control environment; all recommendations from 2018 safeguards assessment implemented.
  - Financial reporting and external audit arrangements remain in line with international practices.
- Debt sustainability analysis (DSA) key findings:
  - Overall and external risk rating: Moderate.
  - Baseline: PV of public debt-to-GDP below 55 percent threshold; commodity price shock could breach threshold in 2024 and remain above.
  - EMBI spread: decreased from 756 to 674 bps as of November 3, 2023.
  - Debt coverage: public debt includes central government, central bank, guarantees; public debt stocks end-2022: 56.8 percent of GDP; external debt 34.5 percent of GDP.

### Policy priorities, conditionality, and technical assistance
- Monitoring and conditionality:
  - Program monitored through semi-annual reviews based on QPCs, ITs, PAs and SBs.
  - Modifications proposed to align March ITs with 2024 budget and clarify publication expectations for MTRS summary (end-May 2024 SB).
  - Structural conditionality augmented to include new SBs on DRM, PFM, and governance.
- Fiscal and reform priorities:
  - Meet 2024 budget consolidation target to reduce debt sustainability risks and converge to WAEMU fiscal deficit target by 2025.
  - Consolidation to 4 percent of GDP in 2024 should be underpinned by new, permanent, high-quality tax policy and administration measures.
  - Authorities adopted plan to reduce tax arrears; staff welcome commitment to avoid indirect fuel subsidies by adjusting domestic fuel prices per fuel pricing mechanism.
  - Reprioritize capital expenditure and curb current expenditure as needed.
- Revenue mobilization specifics and TA recommendations:
  - Accelerate MTRS agenda and secure broad-based buy-in via consultations and road map.
  - TA recommendations: corporate taxation reforms; elimination of wasteful tax exemptions; tighten framework for approving exemptions; eliminate cap on Impôt Minimum Forfaitaire; introduce standard CIT and national minimum tax for Pillar 2; consolidate SME tax regimes.
- Structural, governance, and financial sector reforms:
  - Sustain momentum on structural reforms, governance, and financial integrity to unlock private sector potential.
  - Prompt restructuring of undercapitalized banks; two banks in breach of capital requirements account for less than 1.2 percent of bank credit in June 2023.
  - Prioritize AML/CFT framework reforms to avoid grey listing by FATF (designate remaining supervisors and undertake risk-based supervision).

### Social, human capital, and climate priorities
- Human capital:
  - Health: 2023-27 Hospital Program; 2023–25 plan: build 12 new health centers and renovate 10; targets include more than 130 new operating rooms and more than 4,000 additional beds.
  - Education: infrastructure projects (e.g., 92 preschool classrooms; 243 primary-classrooms in specific regions); train 8,543 teachers under CLEF.
  - Universal Health Coverage (CMU): aim to enroll 60 percent of population by 2027 (20.7 million); collection rate targets for private sector and informal sector specified.
- Social programs:
  - PSGouv 2 budget: CFAF 735.9 billion in 2023; 61.2 percent funded by government budget.
  - PJGouv total cost estimated at CFAF 1,118 billion; 32.3 percent funded through 2023 budget.
- Climate vulnerability and commitments:
  - Average temperature increased between 0.5°C and 0.8°C between 1970 and 2021 (5-year moving average).
  - NDCs implementation estimated at $22 billion ($12 and $10 billion for adaptation and mitigation, respectively).
  - Authorities requested access to the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF); proposed reform pillars include climate smart agriculture, GHG control, increased climate-related financing, and disaster resilience.
  - C-PIMA and green PFM assessments completed with seven key recommendations (see source).
- IMF capacity development (TA) priorities:
  - Core TA focus: domestic revenue mobilization, strengthen statistics and governance.
  - Detailed TA horizons and objectives across Tax Policy, Revenue Administration, PFM, Fiscal Risks of SOEs, STA, and LEG provided (FY2024/2025 horizons noted).

### Program monitoring: quantitative performance criteria, indicative targets, and structural benchmarks (selected)
- Key PCs and ITs (cumulative from Jan 1, 2023 for 2023 targets):
  - Floor on overall fiscal balance (incl. grants, Billions of CFA):
    - March PC outturn: -1,338 (Met)
    - June PC: -2,007
    - September IT: -2,514
    - December PC: -2,110
  - Ceiling on net domestic financing (Billions of CFA):
    - March ceiling outturn: 777 (Outturn 749 Met)
    - June PC: 952
    - September IT: 1,160
    - December PC: 1,355
  - Floor on government tax revenue (Billions of CFA):
    - March floor outturn: 3,079 (Outturn 3,254 Met)
    - June PC: 4,620
    - September IT: 6,306
    - December PC: 7,156
  - Continuous ceilings on new external and domestic arrears: 0 (Met).
- Indicative targets:
  - Floor on targeted social spending (Billions of CFA): March IT 307 (Outturn 345 Met); June PC: 700; September IT: 949; December PC: 989.
  - Floor on basic primary balance (Billions of CFA): March IT -162 (Outturn 164 Met); June PC: -130; September IT: 187; December PC: -20.
- Prior actions and SBs:
  - Prior Action: Submit 2024 budget to parliament in line with program objectives.
  - Met end-September 2023 SBs: plan to manage and collect tax arrears; adopt draft law on national debt policy.
  - New SBs include e-procurement expansion, VAT automation at customs (end-June 2024), designation of AML/CFT supervisors (end-May 2024), and exemptions streamlining (end-September 2024).

### Staff appraisal and program endorsement
- Staff supports completion of first review of the EFF/ECF arrangement.
- Assessment: program on track; financing from the Fund catalytic; capacity to repay adequate; implementation risks manageable given government’s track record.
- Key macro indicators (selected):
  - Population (2021): 29 million.
  - Per capita GDP (2021): 2,445 USD.
  - Real GDP growth (selected): 2021: 7.4; 2022: 6.7; 2023: 6.4; 2024: 6.5; 2025: 6.4; 2026: 6.3.
  - Consumer price index (annual average): 2023: 4.7; 2024: 3.8; 2025: 3.0; 2026: 2.2.
  - Nominal GDP (CFAF billions, memorandum): 2024: 52,125; 2025: 56,570; 2026: 61,337.
- Program financing schedule under ECF/EFF (SDR millions):
  - Executive Board approval May 24, 2023: 371.657 (ECF: 123.886; EFF: 247.771).
  - Subsequent scheduled availability tied to reviews: Nov 15, 2023: 371.657; May 15, 2024: 371.657; Nov 15, 2024: 371.657; May 15, 2025: 371.657; Nov 15, 2025: 371.657; May 15, 2026: 371.658.
  - Total under ECF/EFF, 2023–26: 2,601.600 millions of SDRs (ECF: 867.200; EFF: 1,734.400).

### Selected public finance and financial soundness indicators (selected exact values)
- Fiscal (Billions of CFA):
  - Total revenue and grants: 2023 (first review): 7,872; 2024: 8,696; 2025: 9,727; 2026: 10,898.
  - Total expenditure: 2023 (first review): 10,382; 2024: 10,805; 2025: 11,442; 2026: 12,766.
  - Basic primary balance (Billions of CFA): 2023 (first review): 91; 2024: -844; 2025: 977; 2026: 569.
  - Overall balance, incl. grants (Billions of CFA): 2023 (first review): -2,510; 2024: -2,110; 2025: -1,715; 2026: -1,868.
- Financial soundness (selected):
  - CAR (Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets): 2023 (June): 13.3.
  - Non-performing loans to total gross loans: 2023 (June): 7.2.
  - General provisions to non-performing loans: 2023 (June): 70.0.
- Banking sector snapshot (end-June 2023):
  - Nonperforming loans ratio increased by 7.2 percent between December 2022 and June 2023; net ratio down from 2.5 percent to 2.3 percent.
  - Solvency ratio: 13.3 percent by end-June 2023 (13.11 percent end-December 2022); minimum norm 11.5 percent.
  - Two banks failed to comply with solvency standards; accounted for 1.06 percent of sector’s total balance sheet, 1.18 percent of outstanding loans, and 1.8 percent of deposits as of June 2023.
- Public debt (as of end-June 2023):
  - Central government debt (including on-lent and guaranteed): 55.4 percent of GDP (down from 58 percent end-December 2022).
  - External debt: 33.5 percent of GDP (versus 35.8 percent end-2022).
  - Domestic debt: 20.8 percent of GDP (versus 22.2 percent end-2022).
  - Stock of public enterprises debt: CFAF 1,025.8 billion, or 2.1 percent of GDP.

### Key program implementation results (end-June and end-September 2023)
- End-June 2023 status:
  - Tax revenue: CFAF 3,254.2 billion (floor CFAF 3,078.5 billion) — overperformance CFAF 175.6 billion.
  - Overall fiscal balance: CFAF -1,028.7 billion (target CFAF -1,338.2 billion) — margin CFAF 309.5 billion.
  - Net domestic financing: CFAF +748.5 billion (ceiling CFAF 777.0 billion) — margin CFAF 28.5 billion.
  - No domestic or external arrears accumulated.
- Structural benchmarks met by end-September 2023:
  - Four-year plan to manage and collect outstanding tax arrears prepared and implementation started.
  - Council of Ministers adopted draft law on National Public Debt Policy on September 28, 2023.

### Annex I — Risk Assessment Matrix (selected recommendations)
- Intensification of regional conflict(s): Likelihood: High; Impact: High. Recommended: advance DRM reforms; temporary targeted fiscal transfers to protect poor.
- Commodity price volatility: Likelihood: Medium; Impact: Medium. Recommended: adjust retail fuel price mechanism; temporary targeted fiscal transfers; invest in diversified energy.
- Social discontent: Likelihood: High; Impact: High. Recommended: policy reforms to alleviate poverty, create jobs, enhance public services.
- Monetary policy miscalibration and cyberthreats: Likelihood: Medium; Impact: Medium. Recommended: monitor and adjust policies; develop cyber response strategies.
- Extreme climate events: Likelihood: Medium; Impact: Medium. Recommended: targeted transfers; invest in climate-resilient agriculture and disaster financing.

### Closing staff view and requests
- Staff view: Authorities’ program on track and appropriately focused; advancing DRM, PFM, governance, and structural reforms essential to unlock financing, rebuild fiscal buffers, and enable deep economic transformation.
- Authorities’ request: completion of the first review of the EFF/ECF arrangement and disbursement under the ECF and EFF in the amount of SDR 371.657 million (per Letter of Intent).

*Source: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY and selected chapters (1civea2023004), Côte d’Ivoire, International Monetary Fund, November 14, 2023.*

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### Context
- Purpose: The EFF/ECF-supported program aims to safeguard macroeconomic stability and support Côte d’Ivoire’s transformation towards upper middle-income status over the medium-term.
- Macroeconomic setting: Broadly unchanged relative to projections at program approval in May 2023—growth remains resilient and inflationary pressures are receding; external headwinds and pressures on regional reserves continue to weigh on the outlook.
- Program implementation: Strong to date with all performance criteria and structural benchmarks met.
- Political and social context:
  - Local elections in September were peaceful with the highest voter participation in a decade; RHDP emerged with a strong lead.
  - Government Social Program (PSGouv2) continues to prioritize investment in vulnerable communities, including northern border regions.
  - Despite regional security deterioration and high refugee arrivals during 2023, Côte d’Ivoire’s security situation remained stable.
- Date: November 14, 2023.

### Main Policy Commitments
- Fiscal and debt sustainability:
  - 2024 budget includes further significant fiscal consolidation anchored by a commitment to increase tax revenue by an additional 0.5 percent of GDP.
  - Objective: convergence to the 3 percent of GDP WAEMU fiscal deficit target by 2025 and sustain a moderate debt distress rating.
  - Complementary measures: improving spending efficiency, including unwinding crisis-era blanket subsidies.
- Domestic revenue mobilization:
  - Authorities committed to boosting tax revenue into the medium term and to developing and implementing a medium-term revenue strategy (MTRS).
  - Implementation of the MTRS will require significant stakeholder engagement to secure buy-in for an overhaul of the tax system to finance critical investment and priority spending and support economic transformation.
- Structural reforms:
  - Ongoing reforms aimed at business climate improvements and increasing private sector involvement.
  - Priorities: enhancements in transparency and accountability of public enterprises; strengthening governance and financial integrity (particularly the AML/CFT framework); investment in human capital; broader financial inclusion; and climate resilience to support higher productivity growth.

### Recent Economic Developments and Program Performance
- Growth and activity:
  - Real GDP growth projected at about 6.4 percent for 2023, down from 6.7 percent in 2022.
  - Economic activity robust in 2023H1, led by stronger-than-expected domestic demand despite weather shocks to cocoa and coffee and disease outbreaks affecting cotton.
- Inflation:
  - Food price inflation reached 5.6 percent in August.
  - Overall consumer price inflation averaged 4.8 percent in 2023H1 and fell to 4.2 percent by September.
  - Inflation expected to average 4.7 percent in 2023.
- Fiscal developments:
  - At end-June 2023, tax revenues stood at 8 percent of GDP, a 0.7 percent increase over the 2016–22 average for the same period.
  - 2023 fiscal deficit expected to fall by 1.6 points to 5.2 percent of GDP.
  - Authorities increased petrol and diesel pump prices by about 7 and 9 percent, respectively, in October.
  - Expenditure consolidation aided by phasing out crisis-era food and fuel subsidies.
- Debt and financing:
  - Updated DSA: overall and external risk rating remains at moderate risk of debt distress.
  - Adverse market conditions resulted in higher interest cost and shorter amortization periods; authorities resorted to more external borrowing than originally planned in 2023.
  - Authorities confirmed no external arrears since program inception.
- Financial sector:
  - Average interbank interest rates increased by about 300 basis points between early 2022 and mid-2023; eased by about 100 basis points after BCEAO sovereign debt purchases in July and September 2023.
  - Growth of credit to the private sector rebounded from 7.9 percent year-on-year in 2022Q4 to 18.9 percent in 2023Q2.
  - Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets ratio increased to 13.3 percent in June 2023 (from 13.1 percent at end-2022).
  - Non-performing loans declined to 7.2 percent in June 2023 (from 7.8 percent in December 2022).
- External sector:
  - Cocoa price: 30 percent jump projected to boost export earnings in 2023-24.
  - Current account deficit estimated to have peaked at 6.9 of GDP percent last year and on track to fall below 6 percent in 2023.
  - Capital inflows insufficient to finance the still elevated current account deficit, contributing to continued pressure on official and regional FX reserves.
- Program performance:
  - All quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) and indicative targets (ITs) as of June 2023, and the two end-September structural benchmarks (SB) were met.
  - Authorities prepared and started implementing a plan to manage and collect outstanding tax arrears; council of ministers adopted the draft law on national debt policy on September 28, 2023.
  - Progress toward remaining end-December 2023 SBs: timetable for closing government accounts with commercial banks; progress on e-procurement; stakeholder engagement to prepare a comprehensive MTRS.

### Economic Outlook and Risks
- Near-term (2024):
  - Staff projections:
    - Output growth: 6.5 percent in 2024 driven by strong private consumption and investment as terms of trade improve offsetting scarcer and more expensive financing.
    - Inflation: annual average of 3.8 percent in 2024; expected to fall within the BCEAO’s 1–3 percent target range by end-2024.
    - Current account deficit: projected to narrow to 4.3 percent of GDP in 2024 reflecting significant terms of trade gains.
    - Overall fiscal deficit including grants: projected to decline to 4 percent of GDP in 2024 amid improved domestic revenue mobilization.
  - Authorities’ forecast:
    - Growth: unchanged at 7 percent for 2024.
    - Inflation: forecast to average 4.1 percent in 2024.
    - Current account deficit: forecast to decline to 5.3 percent of GDP in 2024.
- Medium-term (2025–26):
  - Staff projections:
    - Output growth: expected to remain around 6.4 percent over 2025-26, before converging to estimated long-term potential of around 6 percent.
    - Inflation: expected to average about 2.5 percent in 2025-26 and remain in BCEAO target range.
    - Current account deficit: projected to narrow to about 3 percent of GDP by 2026.
    - Fiscal stance: fiscal deficit projected to reach WAEMU target of 3 percent of GDP by 2025.
  - Authorities’ medium-term forecast:
    - Average GDP growth over 2025-26: 6.8 percent.
    - Consumer price inflation: 3.2 percent.
    - Current account deficit by 2026: 3.7 percent of GDP.
- Risks:
  - External risks include high global interest rates, cautious investor behavior toward emerging and frontier markets, and continued pressure on pooled FX reserves.
  - Domestic risks include weather and sanitary shocks to agriculture, tighter financial conditions, and the need for stakeholder buy-in to implement the MTRS and structural reforms.

*Source: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (1civea2023004), Côte d’Ivoire, International Monetary Fund, November 14, 2023.*

### 13.      Risks are tilted to the downside. Sustained adverse or worsening external financing

### 1civea2023004 - 13.      Risks are tilted to the downside. Sustained adverse or worsening external financing

### Downside and upside risk assessment
- Downside risks:
  - Sustained adverse or worsening external financing conditions could increase debt service costs over time, making it challenging to roll over maturing debt and finance still-elevated deficits (Annex I).
  - A continued decline in regional FX reserves, including from a potential reversal of cocoa prices, could weigh on investor confidence.
  - Further spikes in international oil prices could worsen terms-of-trade and put pressure on tax revenue from petroleum products.
  - Regional security challenges could generate spending pressures and weigh on confidence.
- Upside scenarios:
  - Global inflation pressures could subside faster than anticipated, leading to more favorable financing conditions and facilitating an earlier return to international markets.
  - Potentially higher oil and gas extraction could boost longer-term growth prospects.

### Recent economic and social trends (high-level indicators)
- Growth and inflation:
  - The post pandemic recovery has softened, but growth continues to outperform peers.
  - Inflation spiked in 2022, albeit less than for peers.
- External sector and public finances:
  - Sovereign spreads remain elevated while the current account widened in 2022.
  - Fiscal deficits and debt increased, with imbalances starting to reverse in 2023.
- High-frequency signals (2019–2023Q2):
  - Adverse weather and disease outbursts affected production of key export crops in 2023.
  - Industrial and service activity momentum softened in 2023Q2.
  - Domestic consumption and energy demand rebound in end-2022 and early 2023 softened somewhat thereafter.
  - Recovery of credit to the private sector strengthened recently.
  - Improved terms of trade helped contain trade balance deterioration in 2023H1.
  - Weaker food and core price inflation contributed to a gradual drop in headline CPI inflation in 2023H1.

### Medium-term outlook (2021–28) — program context
- Charts and program projections cover:
  - Gross Domestic Product (Percent change)
  - Consumer Price Index (Percent change)
  - Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP)
  - Overall fiscal balance, incl. grants; Primary basic balance (Percent of GDP)
  - Public Debt Stock: Gross public debt; External public debt, excl. C2D (Percent of GDP)
  - Total Public Debt Interest and Service: Interest payment; Total debt service (Percent of government revenue)
- Note: All program targets are based on staff projections.

### Fiscal policy framework and measures for 2024
- Fiscal consolidation targets and revenue:
  - 2024 budget submitted to parliament as a prior action aims to consolidate the fiscal deficit to 4 percent of GDP.
  - This 4 percent of GDP target is 0.1 percentage point lower than initial program projections.
  - It represents a 1.2 percentage point reduction in the deficit relative to the 2023 target.
  - Tax revenue is projected to increase to 14.5 percent of GDP.
  - Tax revenues are projected to increase by 0.6 percent of GDP, of which 0.5 percent are associated with new high quality and permanent tax policy and tax administration measures.
  - An additional 0.1 percent of GDP increase in tax revenue is expected due to higher export tax revenue from improved terms of trade.
- Key tax policy and administration measures (timing indicated by SB milestones):
  - (i) Eliminating tax exemptions, particularly relating to VAT on non-staple food items and the investment code (end-September 2024 SB).
  - (ii) Important tax administration reforms relating to property taxes.
  - (iii) Increasing the registration rate for cacao.
  - (iv) Tax administration enhancements related to transfer pricing, tobacco traceability, and automated management of VAT deduction collected at customs (end-June 2024 SB).
- Expenditure adjustments:
  - Expenditure in the 2024 budget is 1.1 percent of GDP lower than 2023.
  - This reflects a 1.4 percent of GDP fall in current expenditure offset by a 0.3 percent increase in capital expenditure.
  - The wage bill is being curtailed by 0.2 percent of GDP after increases in public workers’ benefits during the last two years.
  - Hiring policy: hiring one new public servant for every two retirees (except for health and education).
  - Capital spending increase targets critical investment needs in infrastructure, education, health, and security, including northern border areas receiving refugees.
- Fuel pricing mechanism and petroleum tax revenue:
  - Continued application of the fuel pricing mechanism will safeguard a floor on tax revenue from petroleum products.
  - The mechanism establishes a minimum taxable base of 25 percent of international parity prices for fuel.
  - The mechanism establishes modalities and a nominal monthly cap for increasing or decreasing pump prices if international fuel prices move by more than 2.5 percent at any point during the preceding 3 months.
  - Recent pump price increases in October (2023) reestablished the taxable base above the 25 percent minimum and returned petrol related tax revenue close to the historical average.
- Social protection and contingency:
  - Targeted protection of vulnerable households is being increased.
  - Under the single social registry-management information system, a World Bank supported project disbursed two quarterly payments to an additional 100,000 new beneficiary households in 2023, of which about 2/3 were in rural areas.
  - This is estimated to cover around 20 percent of the vulnerable population, with planned increases of 100,000 new beneficiary households in each of the next two years.
  - Further fiscal space would be needed to contend with unanticipated security spending needs; contingency plans include offsetting higher security spending by capital expenditure cuts in other areas.

### Revenue mobilization, PFM, and debt management
- Domestic revenue mobilization (DRM) and MTRS:
  - Sustaining higher DRM into the medium-term will hinge on adopting and implementing an ambitious MTRS (Annex II).
  - The authorities aim to increase tax revenue towards the 20 percent of GDP WAEMU tax revenue target (MEFP, ¶25).
  - A review of enhancements to tax policy, tax and customs administration is underway with technical assistance support.
- Public financial management (PFM) improvements:
  - Expanding the Integrated Government Budget Operations System (SIGOBE) to national representatives abroad and public establishments.
  - Independent evaluation of SOE boards and strengthened SOE debt monitoring.
  - Enhancing the PPP management framework based on PIMA recommendations and integrating forthcoming C-PIMA and green PFM recommendations into investment selection, budgeting, and implementation.
  - Commitments:
    - Enforce use of the new online platform for public procurement for at least 10 percent of all ordinary operations (i.e., larger than CFAF 100 million) in 2023Q4 (end-December 2023 SB).
    - Increase to 50 percent of all ordinary operations over January-June 2024 (end-July 2024 SB).
    - Limit the use of direct procurement to 20 percent of total contracts.
    - Develop timetable for closing accounts with commercial banks to enable full implementation of the TSA (December 2023 SB).
- Debt management:
  - Newly adopted law on national debt policy provides a comprehensive legislative and institutional framework for improved public debt management.
  - The reorganized Direction Générale des Financements (debt department) should be fully operational by the end-2023 and further optimize borrowing, consistent with the updated MTDS for 2023-2026.

### Inclusive growth, human capital, financial sector, and governance priorities
- Business environment and private sector development:
  - Operationalization of the system to uniquely identify firms, digitalization of public systems, enhancements to the Single Investor Services Portal and the one-stop shop for international trade to reduce administrative burden and accelerate investment and export diversification.
  - Launch of technical assistance and credit guarantee products for SMEs in 2023 to develop small businesses and reduce informality.
  - Improvements in industrial zones to provide connectivity to transport, electricity, and communication networks to facilitate industrialization.
- Human capital:
  - Authorities committed to strengthening healthcare infrastructure and human resources and promoting the universal health care system which is to reach 60 percent of the population by 2027.
  - Ongoing efforts on education infrastructure and PSGouv2 technical and vocational training programs to improve enrollment, retention, and youth employability.
- Financial stability and development:
  - Adoption of Basel III and more comprehensive reporting to the credit bureau have helped preserve banks’ asset quality.
  - Addressing deficiencies such as problems to uniquely identify clients would further enhance banks' risk management.
  - Plans to finalize restructuring of two public banks by 2024 to further strengthen the banking system; the two banks in breach of capital requirements account for less than 1.2 percent of bank credit in June 2023.
  - Financial inclusion initiatives under the 2019-24 National Financial Inclusion Strategy (SNIF) focused on vulnerable groups and measures to incentivize savings amongst women and broaden access to credit through microfinance institutions.
  - Mid-term review of the SNIF (May 2024 SB) to identify priorities to enhance financial access, including for women.
  - Recent regulation to integrate fintech providers into the payments system, including the revised WAEMU Uniform Law.
- SOE governance and anti-corruption:
  - Strengthening governance of SOEs through performance contracts, regular independent audits, and reinforced evaluation of fiscal risks from PPP projects reported in the budget law.
  - Operationalization of online public procurement and systematic publication of contracts to increase transparency, reduce corruption risks, and lower uncertainty and costs for private sector participants.
  - 2023-27 National Strategy for the Fight Against Corruption expected to be adopted by end 2023 and the System for the Detection and Prevention of Acts of Corruption and Related Offenses (SPACIA) is now fully operational.
  - The 2022-23 sensibilization campaign increased compliance with asset declaration requirements; authorities committed to reach 90 percent compliance by end 2024 through additional measures including sanctions.

### AML/CFT priorities
- An IMF-led assessment found low levels of effectiveness in achieving eight out of eleven predefined outcomes assessed and poor technical compliance with the FATF Standards, notably on supervision of financial institutions and high-risk non-financial businesses and professions (Annex III).
- A decree designating AML/CFT supervision authorities for non-financial businesses and professions is expected to be adopted in early 2024 (SB, May 2024).
- Authorities have set up a task force to tackle priority actions recommended in the report and seek to avoid grey listing by the FATF.

*Source: IMF staff compilation from the provided chapter content.*

### 28.      Côte d’Ivoire is highly vulnerable to climate change. The average temperature increased

### 1civea2023004 - 28.      Côte d’Ivoire is highly vulnerable to climate change. The average temperature increased

### Climate vulnerability and policy commitments
- Average temperature increased between 0.5°C and 0.8°C between 1970 and 2021 (5-year moving average).
- Rain patterns have shifted; studies project that by 2050 Côte d’Ivoire could face the combined effects of hotter average temperatures, greater variability in rainfall, and higher sea levels, with associated risks of flooding and coastal erosion.
- Agriculture sector context:
  - Employs about half of the workforce.
  - Contributes about 17 percent of GDP and 10 percent of tax revenues.
  - Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer and exporter of cocoa accounting for 40 percent of global cocoa exports.
- National planning and commitments:
  - The NDP lists environment, forest and wildlife resource management, and the fight against climate change as major challenges.
  - Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) implementation is estimated at $22 billion ($12 and $10 billion for adaption and mitigation policies, respectively).
- Authorities requested access to the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) and are developing a reform package informed by World Bank CCDR and C-PIMA diagnostics and Fund TA green PFM reports.
- Proposed reform pillars include:
  - Encouraging climate smart agriculture.
  - Controlling and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
  - Increasing climate-related financing and both public and private investment.
  - Strengthening resilience to climate-related disasters.

### Program financing, gaps, and IMF role (2023–26)
- Program status:
  - Remains fully financed with financing assurances from multilateral and bilateral partners for the next 12 months and good prospects for the remainder of the program.
  - Continued pressures on reserves have been greater than anticipated and are expected to be more protracted.
  - Projected cumulative financing gap of about CFAF 3.6 trillion (or 6.3 percent of GDP) will be covered by budget support from bilateral creditors (about CFA 819 billion), the World Bank (about CFAF 480 billion), AfDB (CFAF 200 billion) and other multilateral creditors.
  - Gross financing from the Fund would cover over half of the gap over 2023-26 (about a quarter when including project financing).
- External Financing Requirements and Sources (Billions of CFA francs; projections and cumulative 2023-26):
  - A. External Financing Requirements:
    - 2023: 3,465
    - 2024: 3,981
    - 2025: 3,595
    - 2026: 3,759
    - 2023-26 Cumulative: 14,800
    - Current account deficit excl. official transfers:
      - 2023: 3,074
      - 2024: 2,497
      - 2025: 2,091
      - 2026: 1,973
      - Cumulative: 9,635
    - Official sector amortization + net acquisition of fin assets:
      - 2023: 1,113
      - 2024: 1,616
      - 2025: 1,684
      - 2026: 1,410
      - Cumulative: 5,823
      - of which: Fund repayments:
        - 2023: 196
        - 2024: 289
        - 2025: 227
        - 2026: 156
        - Cumulative: 868
    - Change in official reserves (excl. IMF; + = increase):
      - 2023: -722
      - 2024: -132
      - 2025: -179
      - 2026: 376
      - Cumulative: -658
  - B. External Financing Sources:
    - 2023: 2,295
    - 2024: 2,961
    - 2025: 2,711
    - 2026: 3,204
    - Cumulative: 11,172
    - Capital flows to private sector, net:
      - 2023: 141
      - 2024: 1,240
      - 2025: 1,260
      - 2026: 1,313
      - Cumulative: 3,954
    - Project financing:
      - 2023: 1,737
      - 2024: 1,033
      - 2025: 986
      - 2026: 1,301
      - Cumulative: 5,057
    - Capital transfers:
      - 2023: 119
      - 2024: 44
      - 2025: 83
      - 2026: 120
      - Cumulative: 366
    - Government gross borrowing from private sector:
      - 2023: 179
      - 2024: 601
      - 2025: 300
      - 2026: 350
      - Cumulative: 1,429
      - of which: Eurobonds:
        - 2023: 0
        - 2024: 575
        - 2025: 300
        - 2026: 350
        - Cumulative: 1,225
    - Official transfers (project grants only):
      - 2023: 119
      - 2024: 44
      - 2025: 83
      - 2026: 120
      - Cumulative: 366
  - C. Financing Gap (= A - B):
    - 2023: 1,169
    - 2024: 1,020
    - 2025: 884
    - 2026: 556
    - Cumulative: 3,628
  - D. Expected Budget Financing from Official Sector:
    - 2023: 566
    - 2024: 419
    - 2025: 285
    - 2026: 257
    - Cumulative: 1,526
    - World Bank:
      - 2023: 181
      - 2024: 120
      - 2025: 90
      - 2026: 89
      - Cumulative: 480
    - AfDB:
      - 2023: 28
      - 2024: 74
      - 2025: 49
      - 2026: 49
      - Cumulative: 200
    - Other multilateral creditors:
      - 2023: 3
      - 2024: 5
      - 2025: 10
      - 2026: 10
      - Cumulative: 28
    - Bilateral creditors:
      - 2023: 355
      - 2024: 219
      - 2025: 136
      - 2026: 108
      - Cumulative: 819
  - E. Residual Financing Gap:
    - 2023: 604
    - 2024: 601
    - 2025: 599
    - 2026: 299
    - Cumulative: 2,102
    - IMF ECF Financing:
      - 2023: 201
      - 2024: 200
      - 2025: 200
      - 2026: 100
      - Cumulative: 701
    - IMF EFF Financing:
      - 2023: 403
      - 2024: 400
      - 2025: 399
      - 2026: 199
      - Cumulative: 1,401
  - Memorandum items:
    - Change in official reserves incl. IMF financing:
      - 2023: -326
      - 2024: 162
      - 2025: 185
      - 2026: 517
      - Cumulative: 538
    - Nominal GDP:
      - 2023: 52,125
      - 2024: 56,570
      - 2025: 61,337
      - 2026: 66,380
- Projected cumulative financing gap of about CFAF 3.6 trillion (or 6.3 percent of GDP) to be covered by a mix of bilateral and multilateral budget support; Fund financing would cover over half of the gap over 2023-26.

### Program risks, debt sustainability, and safeguards
- Program implementation risks:
  - Mitigated by satisfactory track record under previous Fund-supported programs (2016-20 and 2012–15).
  - Risks could rise if regional stability deteriorates or global financial conditions tighten further.
  - The presidential election scheduled for 2025 could pose implementation risks.
- Capacity to repay the Fund:
  - Fund credit outstanding is projected to rise from 3.5 percent of GDP in 2023 to 4.1 percent of GDP at its peak in 2025, above the 75th percentile of PRGT comparator countries.
  - Debt service indicators for government revenue and exports would peak in 2024 and 2025, respectively, also at elevated levels above the 75th percentile for comparators.
- Safeguards:
  - 2023 safeguards assessment update of the BCEAO found continued robust control environment and strong governance arrangements; all recommendations from the 2018 safeguards assessment have been implemented.
  - Financial reporting and external audit arrangements remain in line with international practices.

### Policy priorities, conditionality, and technical assistance
- Program monitoring and conditionality:
  - Will be monitored through semi-annual program reviews based on QPCs, ITs, PA and SBs.
  - Modifications proposed to align March ITs with the 2024 budget and clarify publication expectations for the MTRS summary (end-May 2024 SB).
  - Structural conditionality augmented to include new SBs on DRM, PFM, and governance.
- Fiscal and reform priorities:
  - Meeting 2024 budget consolidation target is critical to reduce debt sustainability risks and secure convergence to the WAEMU fiscal deficit target by 2025.
  - Continued ambitious consolidation to 4 percent of GDP in 2024 should be underpinned by new, permanent, and high-quality tax policy and tax administration measures.
  - Authorities adopted a plan to reduce tax arrears; staff welcome the plan and authorities’ commitment to avoid budgetary risks from indirect fuel subsidies by adjusting domestic fuel prices per the fuel pricing mechanism.
  - Curbing expenditure in percent of GDP in all but capital expenditure is warranted; reprioritizing capital expenditure is essential to safeguard the deficit target.
- Revenue mobilization and tax reforms:
  - Authorities should accelerate the MTRS reform agenda and secure broad-based buy-in via consultations and a high-level road map.
  - Fund TA recommendations highlighted areas including corporate taxation reforms and elimination of wasteful tax exemptions; a tighter framework for approving exemptions is recommended.
  - Specific Fund TA recommended eliminating the cap on the Impôt Minimum Forfaitaire, introducing a standard CIT and a national minimum tax to address Pillar 2, and consolidating existing SME tax regimes.
- Structural, governance, and financial sector reforms:
  - Sustain momentum on structural reforms, governance, and financial integrity to unlock private sector potential.
  - Accelerate operationalization of business environment reforms and digitalization of public services.
  - Prompt restructuring of undercapitalized banks is important for financial stability.
  - Prioritize reforms to address deficiencies in the AML/CFT framework to avoid a grey listing by the FATF, starting by designating all remaining AML/CFT supervisors and undertaking risk-based supervision of all covered entities, with Fund TA support.
  - Adoption of sanctions and strengthening the asset declaration framework for public officials are welcome; publishing asset declarations would further improve effectiveness.
  - Authorities committed to subscribing to the Fund’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) by end-2025.

### Staff appraisal summary
- Economic resilience and risks:
  - After multiple shocks, the Ivorian economy continues to show resilience, but adverse external environment challenges highlight the importance of prudent macroeconomic policies and sustaining reforms.
  - COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine produced twin deficits; recent terms of trade improvements and fiscal consolidation are ameliorating these.
  - Tighter financing conditions increase borrowing costs and weigh on debt management; regional official reserves declined further in 2023.
- Staff view:
  - Authorities’ economic program is on track and appropriately focused; new revenue mobilization, PFM, and governance measures support program objectives.
  - Advancing DRM, governance, and other structural reforms is instrumental to unlock financing to rebuild fiscal buffers and enable deep economic transformation.

*IMF staff summary based on the provided country report excerpt.*

### 42.      Staff supports the authorities’ request for completion of the first review of the

### 42. Staff supports the authorities’ request for completion of the first review of the EFF/ECF arrangement

### Program endorsement
- Staff supports the authorities’ request for completion of the first review of the EFF/ECF arrangement.
- The Letter of Intent and the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies set out policies to pursue the program’s objectives.
- Financing from the Fund will have a strong catalytic role, the capacity to repay the Fund is adequate, and risks to program implementation are manageable given the government’s solid track record for policy implementation under previous Fund-supported programs.

### Key macroeconomic projections and indicators (selected)
- Population (2021): 29 million
- Per capita GDP (2021): 2,445 USD
- Gini Index (2018): 37.2
- Life Expectancy (2020): 59
- Share of population below the poverty line (2018): 39.5%
- Real GDP growth (GDP at constant prices, percent): 2021: 7.4; 2022: 6.7; 2023: 6.4; 2024: 6.5; 2025: 6.4; 2026: 6.3; 2027: 6.1; 2028: 6.0
- Consumer price index (annual average): 2021: 4.2; 2022: 5.2; 2023: 4.7; 2024: 3.8; 2025: 3.0; 2026: 2.2; 2027: 1.9; 2028: 2.0
- GDP deflator: 2021: 2.3; 2022: 2.8; 2023: 2.9; 2024: 2.3; 2025: 2.0; 2026: 2.0; 2027: 2.0; 2028: 2.0
- Nominal GDP (CFAF billions, memorandum): 2021: 39,821; 2022: 43,682; 2023: 47,825; 2024: 52,125; 2025: 56,570; 2026: 61,337; 2027: 66,380; 2028: 71,770
- Nominal GDP at market prices (US$ billions, memorandum): 2021: 72; 2022: 70; 2023: 79; 2024: 87; 2025: 95; 2026: 103; 2027: 110.8; 2028: 119.4

### External sector and balance of payments (selected)
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2021: -4.0; 2022: -6.9; 2023: -5.8; 2024: -4.3; 2025: -3.3; 2026: -2.9; 2027: -2.9; 2028: -2.8
- Current account (Billions of CFA): 2021: -1,593; 2022: -2,999; 2023: -2,753; 2024: -2,248; 2025: -1,881; 2026: -1,785; 2027: -1,892; 2028: -2,031
- Exports, f.o.b. (Billions of CFA): 2021: 8,491; 2022: 10,236; 2023: 10,852; 2024: 12,074; 2025: 13,131; 2026: 14,182; 2027: 15,228; 2028: 16,395
  - Of which: cocoa (Billions of CFA): 2021: 3,314; 2022: 3,121; 2023: 3,750; 2024: 4,617; 2025: 4,906; 2026: 4,987; 2027: 5,210; 2028: 5,429
  - Of which: crude oil and refined oil products (Billions of CFA): 2021: 957; 2022: 1,841; 2023: 1,914; 2024: 1,804; 2025: 2,020; 2026: 2,329; 2027: 2,533; 2028: 2,669
- Imports, f.o.b. (Billions of CFA): 2021: 6,799; 2022: 9,304; 2023: 9,444; 2024: 9,943; 2025: 10,374; 2026: 10,999; 2027: 11,743; 2028: 12,541
- Trade balance (percent of GDP): 2021: 4.2; 2022: 2.1; 2023: 2.9; 2024: 4.1; 2025: 4.9; 2026: 5.2; 2027: 5.2; 2028: 5.4
- Overall balance (Billions of CFA): 2021: 1,027; 2022: -587; 2023: -326; 2024: 162; 2025: 185; 2026: 517; 2027: 728; 2028: 1,027
- WAEMU gross official reserves (billions of US$ mem.): 2021: 24.2; 2022: 18.5

### Fiscal operations (central government, selected)
- Total revenue and grants (Billions of CFA): 2021: 6,295; 2022: 6,684; 2023 (program approval): 7,837; 2023 (first review): 7,872; 2024: 8,696; 2025: 9,727; 2026: 10,898; 2027: 11,999; 2028: 13,089
- Total revenue (Billions of CFA): 2021: 6,110; 2022: 6,451; 2023 (prog.): 7,515; 2023 (first review): 7,550; 2024: 8,447; 2025: 9,518; 2026: 10,710; 2027: 11,789; 2028: 12,874
  - Tax revenue (Billions of CFA): 2021: 5,251; 2022: 5,617; 2023 (prog.): 6,638; 2023 (first review): 6,638; 2024: 7,532; 2025: 8,519; 2026: 9,627; 2027: 10,615; 2028: 11,604
    - Non-earmarked taxes (Billions of CFA): 2021: 5,042; 2022: 5,304; 2023: 6,242; 2024: 6,243; 2025: 7,074; 2026: 8,078; 2027: 9,161; 2028: 10,085; 2029: 11,031 (table extends to 2028)
- Total expenditure (Billions of CFA): 2021: 8,257; 2022: 9,666; 2023 (prog.): 10,351; 2023 (first review): 10,382; 2024: 10,805; 2025: 11,442; 2026: 12,766; 2027: 13,971; 2028: 15,225
  - Current expenditure (Billions of CFA): 2021: 5,930; 2022: 6,526; 2023 prog.: 6,801; 2023 first review: 6,875; 2024: 6,798; 2025: 7,867; 2026: 8,584; 2027: 9,247; 2028: 10,019
  - Capital expenditure (Billions of CFA): 2021: 2,327; 2022: 3,141; 2023 prog.: 3,550; 2023 first review: 3,506; 2024: 4,007; 2025: 3,574; 2026: 4,182; 2027: 4,724; 2028: 5,206
- Basic primary balance (Billions of CFA): 2021: -429; 2022: -772; 2023 prog.: -691; 2023 first review: 91; 2024: -844; 2025: 977; 2026: 569; 2027: 661; 2028: 1,025
- Overall balance, including grants (Billions of CFA): 2021: -1,962; 2022: -2,982; 2023 prog.: -2,514; 2023 first review: -2,510; 2024: -2,110; 2025: -1,715; 2026: -1,868; 2027: -1,972; 2028: -2,136
- Financing (Billions of CFA): 2021: 1,973; 2022: 3,093; 2023 prog.: 1,588; 2023 first review: 1,568; 2024: 1,320; 2025: 957; 2026: 1,380; 2027: 1,972; 2028: 2,136
- Memorandum: Nominal GDP (Billions of CFA): 2023 (prog. column corrected) 47,642; program columns list other years as above.

### Monetary and financial sector (selected)
- Broad money (M2, Billions of CFA): 2021: 15,487; 2022: 16,879; 2023: 18,423; 2024: 20,274; 2025: 22,529; 2026: 24,974; 2027: 27,705; 2028: 30,724
- Net foreign assets (Billions of CFA): 2021: 4,206; 2022: 3,886; 2023: 3,440; 2024: 3,594; 2025: 3,767; 2026: 4,290; 2027: 5,037; 2028: 6,086
- Credit to the economy (Billions of CFA): 2021: 9,139; 2022: 9,807; 2023: 11,514; 2024: 12,558; 2025: 13,785; 2026: 15,140; 2027: 16,913; 2028: 18,531
- Velocity of circulation (memorandum): 2021: 2.6; 2022: 2.6; 2023: 2.6; 2024: 2.6; 2025: 2.5; 2026: 2.5; 2027: 2.4; 2028: 2.3

### Financial soundness indicators (selected, 2015–2023)
- Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets (CAR): 2015: 8.7; 2016: 7.9; 2017: 9.0; 2018: 9.5; 2019: 10.5; 2020: 11.6; 2021: 12.6; 2022: 13.1; 2023 (June): 13.3
- Non-performing loans to total gross loans: 2015: 10.4; 2016: 9.1; 2017: 9.8; 2018: 9.3; 2019: 8.4; 2020: 8.8; 2021: 8.9; 2022: 7.8; 2023 (June): 7.2
- General provisions to non-performing loans: 2015: 66.6; 2016: 70.5; 2017: 63.0; 2018: 64.9; 2019: 70.2; 2020: 68.8; 2021: 66.3; 2022: 69.5; 2023 (June): 70.0
- Return on assets (ROA) net of tax: 2015: 1.4; 2016: 1.6; 2017: 1.4; 2018: 1.3; 2019: 1.6; 2020: 1.4; 2021: 1.8; 2022: 1.7
- Return on average equity (ROE) net of tax: 2015: 24.5; 2016: 29.2; 2017: 21.5; 2018: 16.5; 2019: 19.0; 2020: 16.9; 2021: 20.7; 2022: 19.9

### Capacity to repay the Fund (2023–32, Table 5 selected)
- Fund obligations based on existing and prospective credit (Total obligations, millions of SDRs): 2023: 70.0; 2024: 456.9; 2025: 394.2; 2026: 330.9; 2027: 332.9; 2028: 386.3; 2029: 474.1; 2030: 539.3; 2031: 533.1; 2032: 530.3
- Total obligations in billions of CFA francs: 2023: 56.5; 2024: 367.2; 2025: 317.5; 2026: 267.1; 2027: 270.2; 2028: 315.9; 2029: 387.7; 2030: 441.1; 2031: 436.0; 2032: 433.7
- Total obligations as percent of government revenue: 2023: 0.7; 2024: 4.2; 2025: 3.3; 2026: 2.5; 2027: 2.3; 2028: 2.4; 2029: 2.7; 2030: 2.8; 2031: 2.6; 2032: 2.4
- Outstanding Fund credit (millions of SDRs): 2023: 2,048.8; 2024: 2,432.0; 2025: 2,893.4; 2026: 3,071.7; 2027: 2,878.6; 2028: 2,625.0; 2029: 2,273.7; 2030: 1,837.6; 2031: 1,387.5; 2032: 925.0
- Outstanding Fund credit as percent of government revenue: 2023: 21.0; 2024: 22.5; 2025: 24.0; 2026: 22.8; 2027: 19.5; 2028: 16.4; 2029: 12.9; 2030: 9.6; 2031: 6.7; 2032: 4.1
- Net use of Fund credit (millions of SDRs): 2023: 674.5; 2024: 383.2; 2025: 461.5; 2026: 178.3; 2027: -193.1; 2028: -253.6; 2029: -351.4; 2030: -436.0; 2031: -450.1; 2032: -462.5
- Disbursements (millions of SDRs): 2023: 743.3; 2024: 743.3; 2025: 743.3; 2026: 371.7; 2027–2032: 0.0
- Repayments and repurchases (millions of SDRs): 2023: 68.8; 2024: 360.2; 2025: 281.9; 2026: 193.4; 2027: 193.1; 2028: 253.6; 2029: 351.4; 2030: 436.0; 2031: 450.1; 2032: 462.5
- Memorandum: Exports of goods and services (Billions of CFA francs): 2023: 11,521.4; 2024: 12,960.0; 2025: 14,092.8; 2026: 15,225.1; 2027: 16,356.2; 2028: 17,615.3; 2029: 18,720.1; 2030: 19,879.3; 2031: 21,091.6; 2032: 22,298.9
- Memorandum: Government revenue and grants (Billions of CFA francs): 2023: 7,871.5; 2024: 8,695.6; 2025: 9,727.3; 2026: 10,898.2; 2027: 11,998.9; 2028: 13,088.9; 2029: 14,367.2; 2030: 15,714.2; 2031: 16,986.0; 2032: 18,409.0

### Program financing schedule under ECF/EFF (Table 9)
- Executive Board approval of the ECF/EFF arrangements: May 24, 2023 — Amount: 371.657 millions of SDRs (ECF: 123.886; EFF: 247.771) — Percent of quota: 57.143 (ECF: 19.048; EFF: 38.095)
- Subsequent scheduled availability tied to reviews and observance of PCs:
  - November 15, 2023: 371.657 millions of SDRs
  - May 15, 2024: 371.657 millions of SDRs
  - November 15, 2024: 371.657 millions of SDRs
  - May 15, 2025: 371.657 millions of SDRs
  - November 15, 2025: 371.657 millions of SDRs
  - May 15, 2026: 371.658 millions of SDRs
- Total under ECF/EFF, 2023–26: 2,601.600 millions of SDRs (ECF: 867.200; EFF: 1,734.400) — Total percent of quota: 400.000 (ECF: 133.333; EFF: 266.667)
- Note: Côte d’Ivoire's quota is SDR 650.40 million.

### Quantitative performance criteria, indicative targets, and structural benchmarks (selected)
- Quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets (cumulative from Jan 1, 2023 for 2023 targets):
  - Floor on the overall fiscal balance (incl. grants, Billions of CFA): March PC outturn: -1,338 (Met); June PC: -2,007; September IT: -2,514; December PC: -2,110
  - Ceiling on net domestic financing (incl. issuance of securities in CFAF, Billions of CFA): March ceiling: 777 (Outturn 749 Met); June PC: 952; September IT: 1,160; December PC: 1,355
  - Floor on government tax revenue (Billions of CFA): March floor: 3,079 (Outturn 3,254 Met); June PC: 4,620; September IT: 6,306; December PC: 7,156
  - Ceiling on accumulation of new external arrears by the central government (continuous): 0 (Met)
  - Ceiling on accumulation of new domestic arrears by the central government (continuous): 0 (Met)
- Indicative targets:
  - Floor on targeted social spending (Billions of CFA): March IT: 307 (Outturn 345 Met); June PC: 700; September IT: 949; December PC: 989
  - Floor on basic primary balance (Billions of CFA): March IT: -162 (Outturn 164 Met); June PC: -130; September IT: 187; December PC: -20
- Prior actions and structural benchmarks (selected, 2023–24):
  - Prior Action: Submit to parliament 2024 budget in line with program objectives (status listed in table).
  - Proposed new structural benchmark (Revenue Mobilization): Issue an ordinance to streamline provisions relating to exemptions linked to the investment code — Due end-September 2024.
  - Proposed new structural benchmark: Strengthen automated VAT management module by incorporating control of VAT deduction collected at customs — Due end-June 2024.
  - PFM structural benchmark: Enforce e-procurement to be used by at least 50 percent of all ordinary operations (value > 100 million CFAF) between January 1, 2024, and June 30, 2024 — Due end-July 2024.
  - Governance structural benchmark: Approve a ministerial decree to designate AML/CFT supervisors for specified sectors and set out their powers in line with FATF Recommendation 28 — Due end-May 2024.
  - Current structural benchmark met: Prepare and implement a plan to manage and collect outstanding tax arrears — Met end-September 2023.
  - Current structural benchmark (PFM): Adopt draft law on national debt policy — Met end-September 2023.
  - Current structural benchmark (PFM): Treasury Single Account (TSA): adopt timetable for closing accounts with commercial banks — Due end-December 2023.
  - Current structural benchmark: Enforce e-procurement average use at least 10 percent for operations starting from October 2023 — Due end-December 2023.
  - Financial sector benchmark: Complete a mid-term review of the National Strategy for Financial Inclusion — Due end-May 2024.

*Sources: Ivorian authorities, World Bank, BCEAO, and IMF staff estimates and projections.*

### Annex I. Risk Assessment Matrix

### Annex I. Risk Assessment Matrix

### Overview of the Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM)
- The RAM shows events that could materially alter the baseline path.
- The relative likelihood is staff’s subjective assessment: "low" is meant to indicate a probability below 10 percent, "medium" a probability between 10 and 30 percent, and "high" a probability between 30 and 50 percent.
- The RAM reflects staff views on the source of risks and overall level of concern as of the time of discussions with the authorities.
- Non-mutually exclusive risks may interact and materialize jointly.
- The conjunctural shocks and scenarios highlight risks that may materialize over a shorter horizon (between 12 to 18 months) given the current baseline.
- Structural risks are those that are likely to remain salient over a longer horizon.

### External risks: likelihood, impact, and recommended policy responses
- Intensification of regional conflict(s)
  - Likelihood: High
  - Impact if Realized: High
  - Key concerns: Even higher commodity prices, refugee migration, tighter financial conditions, and other adverse spillovers could weigh on economic outlook, deplete fiscal resources, increase poverty and lead to social tensions.
  - Recommended Policy Response: Advance reforms to increase domestic revenue mobilization to create fiscal space for support measures. Mitigate the impact on the poor from volatile commodity prices through temporary targeted fiscal transfers.

- Commodity price volatility
  - Likelihood: Medium
  - Impact if Realized: Medium
  - Key concerns: Large increases in global energy prices could lower fiscal revenues if price changes are not passed through to consumers, while higher domestic energy prices would raise production costs and general prices. Higher commodity prices would reduce disposable income of households, exacerbating poverty.
  - Recommended Policy Response: Adjust the retail fuel price mechanism to reflect world energy prices and monitor inflation. Mitigate the impact on the poor through temporary targeted fiscal transfers. Invest in a more diversified and sustainable energy mix.

- Social discontent
  - Likelihood: High
  - Impact if Realized: High
  - Key concerns: Social discontent and political instability in other countries could increase inflows of migrants, lower trade flows, reduce exports and FDI, and negatively affect growth and tax revenue.
  - Recommended Policy Response: Continue policy reforms to alleviate poverty, create jobs, and generate more inclusive growth outcomes, while continuing to enhance the provision of public services.

- Abrupt global slowdown or recession
  - Likelihood: Medium
  - Impact if Realized: Medium
  - Key concerns: Could weaken global demand, negatively impact trade flows, especially exports, and could slow growth and decrease revenues.
  - Recommended Policy Response: Build resilience to shocks by creating fiscal space to increase buffers and pursuing reforms to transform the economy through diversification and industrialization policies.

### Monetary, financial, cyber, and climate risks
- Monetary policy miscalibration
  - Likelihood: Medium
  - Impact if Realized: Medium
  - Key concerns: Tightening global financial conditions and spiking risk premia would raise borrowing costs and increase debt vulnerabilities, with knock-on effects on growth. Financial difficulties for SMEs and state-owned enterprises; disruption to financial access and deepening; persistently high global inflation could affect food security, exacerbating poverty.
  - Recommended Policy Response: Advance reforms to increase domestic revenue mobilization to create room for targeted support to vulnerable population to ensure appropriate living standards. Monitor solvency of state-owned enterprises and government guaranteed debt (including for SME access to credit programs) and develop a bank resolution framework.

- Cyberthreats
  - Likelihood: Medium
  - Impact if Realized: Medium
  - Key concerns: Successful cyber-attacks on the financial system could disrupt delivery of critical services, increase the risk of disruption of payment systems, precipitate damaging disruptions to the economy, and cause loss of confidence and reputational damage.
  - Recommended Policy Response: Develop response and recovery strategies including “cyber mapping” to identify technologies, services and institutions that would be most affected. Incorporate cyber risks into financial stability analysis and stress tests.

- Extreme climate events
  - Likelihood: Medium
  - Impact if Realized: Medium
  - Key concerns: Adverse weather conditions would reduce agricultural output and exports, lower cocoa tax revenues, increase subsidy needs, and reduce the population’s living standards.
  - Recommended Policy Response: Mitigate the impact on the poor through temporary targeted fiscal transfers. Monitor second-round effects on inflation. Invest in education and training of farmers in sustainable and climate-resilient agricultural practices and examine scope for increasing pre-arranged disaster financing (climate risk insurance).

### Country-specific risks: likelihood, impact, and recommended policy responses
- Deterioration of security situation in region
  - Likelihood: High
  - Impact if Realized: High
  - Key concerns: Spillovers from tensions in the Sahel area, especially in Niger, put pressure on fiscal expenditure to increase security spending and provide for refugees, and could have adverse socio-economic effects.
  - Recommended Policy Response: Promote security, strengthen social safety nets, and facilitate job creation in the private sector. Create fiscal space by accelerating revenue mobilization reforms and reprioritizing non-priority spending.

- Financial difficulties for public enterprises and banks
  - Likelihood: Medium
  - Impact if Realized: Medium
  - Key concerns: Financial difficulties of public enterprises and/or banks could adversely impact the budget, the stock of public debt and the banking sector.
  - Recommended Policy Response: Restructure loss-making public companies; enhance monitoring of public enterprises; recapitalize and restructure ailing public banks. Develop bank resolution framework.

*Source: Annex I. Risk Assessment Matrix (CÔTE D’IVOIRE, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND).*

### 6.      Building on the experience with the previous plans, the authorities have strengthened

### 6.      Building on the experience with the previous plans, the authorities have strengthened

### Governance of the NDP 2021-25
- A dedicated unit, attached to the Prime Minister’s office, is responsible for monitoring implementation progress.
- Governance structure components:
  - A steering committee (chaired by the Prime Minister).
  - A technical committee (headed by the Minister in charge of Planning and Development).
  - A technical monitoring secretariat.
  - Local committees and sectoral and thematic working groups.
- A technical coordination unit has been set to monitor PSGouv2 projects, conducting satisfaction surveys and impact analyses, and strengthening overall communication on the program.

### Annex V. Capacity Development Strategy — IMF Technical Assistance (TA) focus
- Core TA focus: domestic revenue mobilization to help safeguard fiscal and debt sustainability and create fiscal space for priority spending.
- Additional TA areas: strengthen the statistical system and governance.

Key Overall CD Priorities Going Forward (Preserve original objectives and horizons)
- Tax Policy
  - Tax Policy Unit (TPU) capacity building. Equip counterparts with technical skills and tools for tax policy design and implementation.
    - Horizon: FY 2024/25
  - Property Tax reforms. Update property values as per market value.
    - Horizon: FY2024
- Revenue Administration
  - Tax administration: (1) strengthening the tax arrears management, (2) expanding the tax base, and (3) supporting the implementation of the MTRS.
    - Objective: Implementing comprehensive tax reforms, combating fraud and informal sector and mobilizing tax revenue.
    - Horizon: FY2024/2025
  - Customs administration: (1) improving the quality, governance and use of customs data, and (2) strengthen the administration and control of exemptions.
    - Objective: Improving risk management, combating fraud, strengthening the monitoring of exemptions and mobilizing tax revenue.
    - Horizon: FY2024/2025
- PFM
  - Conduct the C-PIMA and green PFM.
    - Objective: Take account of climate change in public financial management (PFM) institutions and processes, notably with respect to public investment management (climate-sensitive planning, budgeting, and implementation of investment projects).
    - Horizon: FY 2024
- Fiscal Risks of SOEs
  - Capacity building with the quantification and monitoring of fiscal risks. Mission to take stock of budgetary risks analysis and enable progress on intra-annual monitoring of risks, quantification of major risks, management and integration into the budgetary process.
  - Tools to be used by authorities:
    - (i) monitoring the financial health of public enterprises (SOE Health Check Tool);
    - (ii) stress-testing public enterprises (SOE Stress Test);
    - (iii) analyzing guarantees and on-lending to public enterprises (DGLAT).
  - Expected outcome: Better monitoring of fiscal risks.
  - Horizon: FY 2024
  - Climate policy TA/Diagnostic. Carbon taxation to be discussed during the mission.
    - Horizon: FY2024
- STA (Statistics)
  - National Accounts: Improve timeliness of National Accounts dissemination and consistency of annual and quarterly GDP data. Develop high frequency activity indicators.
    - Objective: Finalize dissemination of 2020 and 2021 annual national accounts and provisional 2022 national accounts; complete work to align quarterly national accounts to annual national accounts and produce quarterly GDP by expenditure.
    - Horizon: FY2024/2025
  - Government finance and public sector debt statistics:
    - Continue TA to improve timeliness, comprehensiveness, and accuracy of government finance statistics (GFS) and align methodologies to GFSM14 and WAEMU’s TOFE directives.
    - Priorities: progressive expansion of institutional coverage of GFS (local governments, extrabudgetary units, social security funds); broaden institutional coverage of public sector debt to include all market SOEs (public nonfinancial corporations).
    - Objective: Improve the coverage of SOES in GFS.
    - Horizon: FY2024/2025
  - BOP statistics:
    - Support improvements to external sector statistics, reconcile gross external debt liabilities with World Bank’s QEDS, compile the International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity Template, and improve timeliness of annual external sector data.
    - Objective: Improve BOP statistics, including producing higher frequency statistics, and the international investment position, which will support the external balance assessment.
    - Horizon: FY 2024
  - Price Statistics:
    - Assist WAEMU Commission, AFRISTAT, and WAEMU member countries to update and improve the harmonized consumer price index.
    - With D4D funding, assist National Institute of Statistics to expand PPI coverage to include services and develop export-import price indexes.
    - Objective: Disseminate an updated, harmonized CPI, expand coverage of PPI to include services, and dissemination of export-import indexes.
    - Horizon: FY2024/2025
- LEG (Legal)
  - Continue strengthening the AML/CFT framework.
    - Objective: Assist in implementing priority reforms recommended by the IMF-led AML/CFT assessment.
    - Horizon: FY 2024
  - Assess and reform the asset declarations regime to ensure publication of the asset declarations of officials in positions with higher risk of corruption and disclosure of interests and beneficial ownership.
    - Objective: Strengthen governance and transparency.
    - Horizon: FY 2024 (Review from HQ) subject to authorities request

### Main Risks and Mitigation
- Main risks:
  - Weaknesses undermining the tax administration’s ability to conduct reforms and deliver better tax revenue outcomes, as stressed in the 2021 TADAT assessment.
  - High stakes because domestic tax revenue constitutes a performance criterion (PC) under the program.
- Mitigating factors:
  - (i) Continued strong commitment of the highest authorities who consider domestic revenue mobilization as a national priority for the success of the 2021-2025 NDP.
  - (ii) A great share of tax revenue measures are already in place before the start of the program.
  - (iii) The program establishes well-targeted and sequenced structural benchmarks, including a strategy to collect tax arrears, and the development and implementation of an MTRS.
  - (iv) The provision of customized training courses to tax officials.
  - (iv) Efficiency from greater coordination with other TA providers.

### Authorities’ Views
- Authorities' commitments and assessments:
  - Stressed commitment to the program and track record under the previous Fund-supported program, where all reviews were easily completed.
  - Acknowledged Fund TAs were helpful to put in place key tax and administrative reforms and to prepare for access to RST resources.
  - Keen interest in:
    - (i) formulation of the MTRS and the tax arrears strategy;
    - (ii) capacity building with the quantification and monitoring of fiscal risks;
    - (iii) LEG’s assistance in implementing priority reforms recommended by the IMF-led AML/CFT assessment.

### Appendix I — Letter of Intent: Key macroeconomic figures and program stance
- Growth and inflation:
  - Côte d'Ivoire has maintained its economic dynamism with an average growth rate of around 7 percent since 2021.
  - Inflation should be contained at 4.8 percent in 2023, after an average acceleration in prices of 4.7 percent over the 2021-2022 period.
- Fiscal and external balances:
  - The budget deficit should fall from 6.8 percent of GDP in 2022 to 5.2 percent in 2023, with a view to fiscal consolidation in 2025.
  - The current account deficit should be contained at 5.8 percent of GDP in 2023, after 6.9 percent in 2022, thanks to an upturn in the trade surplus.
- Program financing request and modifications:
  - Côte d'Ivoire requests the IMF Board to complete the first review of the economic and financial program, as well as the second disbursement under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Fund Facility Arrangements (ECF and EFF) in the amount of SDR 371.657 million.
  - Authorities also request modifications of the indicative targets and the structural benchmark on the Cabinet approving and publishing a medium-term revenue mobilization strategy.
- RSF and climate resilience:
  - Authorities reaffirm interest in a Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) program; IMF negotiation mission to visit Abidjan as early as January 2024 to negotiate the RSF program.
  - RSF to help finance anticipated balance of payments needs arising from long-term structural challenges associated with climate change; reform measures linked to priority policy reforms and investment projects in Côte d'Ivoire's NDCs.

### Recent Macroeconomic Developments (as of end-June 2023)
- Highlights:
  - Economic growth supported by dynamic secondary sectors; primary sector hampered by adverse weather, stopping distribution of enhanced seeds, and persistent effects of the jasside crisis.
  - Average inflation rate over the preceding 12 months: 5.3 percent, mainly due to higher prices for food and transportation.
  - Trade surplus: CFAF +869.0 billion, driven by exports up 18.3 percent and imports up 6.4 percent.
  - WAEMU foreign exchange reserves: 4 months of imports as of end-June 2023, compared to 4.4 months as of end-December 2022.
  - Real effective exchange rate: declined by an average of 1.54 percent in the first half of 2023 year-on-year, reflecting an inflation differential of -5.1 percent and a 9.4 percent appreciation of the dollar vis-à-vis the euro.
  - Monetary position: broad money increased by 10.4 percent; lending remained healthy with credit to the economy increasing.
  - Banking sector: gross non-performing loans ratio declined from 7.8 percent to [figure cut off in source].

*Source: IMF country documents provided in the content unit.*

### 7.2 percent between December 2022 and June 2023. The net ratio was down from 2.5 percent to

### 1civea2023004 - 7.2 percent between December 2022 and June 2023. The net ratio was down from 2.5 percent to

### Banking sector indicators (end-December 2022 to end-June 2023)
- Nonperforming loans ratio increased by 7.2 percent between December 2022 and June 2023.
- The net ratio was down from 2.5 percent to 2.3 percent over the same period.
- The solvency ratio reached 13.3 percent by end-June 2023, compared to 13.11 percent as of end-December 2022 and above the minimum norm of 11.5 percent.
- Two banks failed to comply with solvency standards (versus three banks as of end-2022). Those institutions held:
  - 1.06 percent of the sector’s total balance sheet,
  - 1.18 percent of outstanding loans,
  - 1.8 percent of deposits as of June 2023.

### Budgetary execution as of June 2023
- Total revenue and grants: CFAF 3,856.3 billion (CFAF 74.1 billion higher than target CFAF 3,782.2 billion).
  - Tax revenue: CFAF +13.6 billion (relative contribution to outcome).
  - Nontax revenue: CFAF +67.7 billion.
  - Earmarked revenue and parafiscality: CFAF -5.2 billion (delayed mobilization).
  - Grants: CFAF -7.2 billion.
- Total spending and net loans executed: CFAF 4,885.0 billion (projection CFAF 5,120.3 billion).
- Overall deficit result: CFAF 1,028.7 billion (projected CFAF 1,338.2 billion).
- Financing: Government borrowed CFAF 1,612.9 billion from money and financial markets to finance the deficit and repay maturing public debt.

### Stock of public debt (as of end-June 2023)
- Central government debt (including on-lent and guaranteed): 55.4 percent of GDP (down from 58 percent as of end-December 2022).
- External debt: 33.5 percent of GDP (versus 35.8 percent of GDP as of end-2022).
- External guaranteed debt: CFAF 421.9 billion, or 0.9 percent of GDP.
- Domestic debt: 20.8 percent of GDP (versus 22.2 percent as of end-2022).
- Domestic guaranteed debt: CFAF 111.9 billion, or 0.2 percent of GDP.
- Stock of public enterprises debt: CFAF 1,025.8 billion, or 2.1 percent of GDP, out of which 1.1 percent of GDP constitutes guaranteed debt.

### Outlook for End-December 2023 — Real economy and prices
- Real GDP growth: 7.0 percent in 2023.
- Supply-side contributions:
  - Secondary sector: strong dynamism, notably construction (+20.9 percent) and energy (+23.9 percent).
  - Primary sector: decline by 4.4 percent due to contraction in agricultural export crops (-9.1 percent) despite expansion of food agriculture (+6.7 percent).
  - Services sector: growth of 8.6 percent in 2023.
- Demand-side contributions:
  - Investment growth: 12.1 percent; investment-to-GDP ratio: 27.2 percent in 2023 (versus 26.4 percent in 2022).
  - Exports growth: 4.1 percent in 2023.
  - Final consumption growth: 4.8 percent in 2023.
- Inflation: expected to reach 4.8 percent by end-December 2023 (versus 5.2 percent as of end-December 2022). Inflationary tensions persist, notably for energy and food prices.
- External sector:
  - Current account deficit: 5.8 percent of GDP in 2023 (versus 6.9 percent in 2022).
  - Capital account surplus: 0.2 percent of GDP.
  - Net capital flows: 4.5 percent of GDP (versus 6.1 percent in 2022).
- Monetary aggregates and credit:
  - Broad money growth: 8 percent in 2023 (after 9.0 percent in 2022).
  - Claims on the economy: increase by 13.5 percent; claims on the economy should reach 23.2 percent of GDP.

### Fiscal projections for 2023 (end-December 2023)
- Fiscal deficit: projected to reach 5.2 percent in 2023.
- Revised projections:
  - Total revenue and grants: CFAF 7,871.6 billion (initial projection CFAF 7,837.2 billion) — increase of CFAF 34.4 billion, mainly from service revenue (CFAF +34.4 billion).
  - Projected tax revenue: unchanged at 13.9 percent of GDP.
  - Total expenditures and net loans: CFAF 10,385.5 billion (upward revision CFAF +34.2 billion versus May 2023 projections).
    - Interest payments: CFAF +74.9 billion (revision).
    - Transfers and subsidies: CFAF +27.8 billion (revision).
    - Capital spending: CFAF -53.5 billion (downward revision).
  - Resulting budget deficit: CFAF 2,513.9 billion.

### Status of Program Implementation (end-June 2023)
- All program performance criteria for end-June 2023: met.
  - Tax revenue: CFAF 3,254.2 billion (floor CFAF 3,078.5 billion) — overperformance CFAF 175.6 billion.
  - Overall fiscal balance: CFAF -1,028.7 billion (target CFAF -1,338.2 billion) — margin CFAF 309.5 billion.
  - Net present value of new external debt: $1.621.4 billion (ceiling $2.533 billion).
  - No domestic or external arrears accumulated.
  - Net domestic financing: CFAF +748.5 billion (ceiling CFAF 777.0 billion) — margin CFAF 28.5 billion.
- All indicative targets for June 2023: met.
  - Stock of amounts payable: reduced by CFAF 135.6 billion (floor CFAF 132.0 billion).
  - Expenditures executed by treasury advances: CFAF 164 billion (ceiling CFAF 167.4 billion).
  - Targeted social spending: CFAF 345.3 billion (floor CFAF 307.0 billion).
  - Basic primary balance: CFAF 163.6 billion (floor -CFAF 162.0 billion).
- All program structural benchmarks for end-September 2023: met.
  - A four-year plan to manage and collect outstanding tax arrears was prepared, with components to: (i) assess stock and distribution of outstanding amounts; (ii) actions to recover amounts; (iii) monthly monitoring of outstanding amounts; (iv) status of recovery efforts; and (v) measures to prevent increases in outstanding amounts.
  - Council of Ministers adopted a draft law on National Public Debt Policy on September 28, 2023, to upgrade and strengthen the institutional framework for managing public debt.

### Tax policy and revenue-enhancing reforms (first half of 2023)
- Telecommunication flows auditing mechanism: deployed in March 2023.
- Property tax base expansion:
  - Continuation of cadastral survey projects, work of CORIF, and strengthening of land surveys.
  - 21,587 new parcels taxed in the first half of 2023 (annual average 18,400 over 2020-22).
  - Revenue increased by 16.4 percent in the first half of 2023 (versus 11 percent previously).
- Simplified Tax System (RSI): introduced monthly tax return replacing quarterly returns for that segment.
  - Payments increased from 49 billion as of end-June 2022 to 81 billion as of end-June 2023.
- Registration duty on cacao: raised from 3 to 4 percent of the CIF price in May 2023.

### Public Financial Management, debt management, governance, and financial sector reforms
Public Financial Management (PFM)
- SIGOBE (Integrated Management System for Government Budget Operations): expanded to all National Public Establishments (EPN) and National Representative Offices Abroad (RNE) in Q1 2023.
- Procurement contracting process digitalized; version 2 of SIGOMAP implemented in Q1 2023 (pilot phase: five ministries, one government-owned company, one project management unit).
- Annual fiscal risks assessment conducted in 2023 and included in the 2024-26 Fiscal Risks Declaration document.
- Annual PPP portfolio reviews conducted in February 2023 with contracting authorities.
- PPP portfolio information continues to be published in accordance with article 24 of Decree No. 2018-358 at www.ppp.gouv.ci.
- PPP project review procedures to assess fiscal risks strengthened and included in the 2024-2026 Fiscal Risks Declaration document.
- Share of procurement contracts made through exceptional procedures: 15.3 percent as of end-June 2023 (below 20 percent ceiling).
- 2023 Draft Supplementary Budget includes butane Péréquation revenue collected by Société Ivoirienne de Raffinage (SIR) and taxes paid and collected for co-financed projects in the TOFE, in line with Decision No. 01/2022/CM/UEMOA and GFSM 2014.
- Climate assessments:
  - Climate-Public Investment Management Assessment (C-PIMA) and Green Fiscal Management Assessment conducted in September 2023 with seven key recommendations (see Box 1).

Debt Management
- Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (SDMT) updated in September 2023 for 2024-28 and annexed to the 2024 Budget Law.
- Key officials of the General Financing Directorate (DGF) appointed in January 2023 for operationalization.

Public Sector
- Electricity price adjustment effective July 1, 2023: affects low-voltage customers with hired consumption >= 15 amperes and all medium- and high-voltage customers (10 percent of consumers). Adjustment represented a 9.6 percent increase in the general average tariff.
- Stock of arrears owed to IPPs and fuel suppliers: reduced from 5.2 months of invoices as of end-February 2023 to 3.8 months as of end-June 2023.
- Performance contracts (COP): 37 signed out of target 47 as of end-August 2023 (79 percent completion). Seven second-generation COPs signed as of end-August 2023.
- Public enterprises audits: nine initiated in 2023 versus eight in 2022.

Governance and Business Environment
- Average time to establish a new company: declined from 3.4 days to 1 day as of end-June 2023 due to issuance of Unique Enterprises Identifier (IDU).
- Re-registration operation for existing enterprises: 30,262 IDUs issued as of end-June 2023 (compared to 24,500 by end-2022).
- Streamlining and dematerializing licenses and permits: 267 identified by end-June 2023 (73.75 percent of target).
- Asset declaration rate for subject persons: 82.12 percent as of end-June 2023 (from 78.85 as of end-2022) due to HABG communication measures.

### Social programs and public works (first half of 2023)
- PSGouv 2 and PJGouv implementation with emphasis on youth.
Box 2 — Key PJGouv and PSGouv 2 Achievements in the First Half of 2023 (selected)
PJGouv highlights:
- Law No. 2023-428 of May 22, 2023 and Law No. 2023-429 of May 22, 2023 enacted in 2023.
- National Assembly enacted Guidance Law regarding the youth and law on promotion of digital startups in May 2023.
- Decree on Occupational Qualification Certificate (CQP) enacted in July 2023.
- Decrees on Volunteering, National Youth Service (SNJ), and Civic Service of Actions for Development (SCAD) enacted in June 2023.
- Decree on creation of Socio-professional Integration Fund for Disabled Persons enacted in June 2023.
- 33,196 pupils and students awarded scholarships and financial assistance outside Côte d’Ivoire.
- 7 technical and vocational institutions built or renovated.
- 16,005 youths admitted to civic service and volunteering programs.
- 4 new Civic Service Centers built or under construction.
- 20 youth infrastructures built, under construction, or being renovated.

PSGouv highlights:
- Northern border areas:
  - 33 preschool and 51 primary school classrooms completed (execution rates 35.48 percent and 16.15 percent, respectively).
  - 56 localities electrified.
  - 111.14 km of roads rebuilt.
  - 481 individuals obtained grants for IGAs.
- Education:
  - 7 junior high schools built under C2D 2.
  - 166,666 bench desks distributed.
  - 40,000 textbooks distributed to 2,300 pupils.
- Households’ living conditions and health:
  - 300 villages sensitized on upgraded family latrines.
  - 1,955,734 households benefited from decline in social tariffs by end-May (versus 1,872,357 by end-February 2023).
  - 114,605 electricity connections added versus 39,015 in Q1 2023; total PEPT connections since January 2019: 1,026,345.
  - 3,836 Human Powered Pumps (PMH) maintained (925 in fragile zones) versus 1,326 as of end-March 2023.
  - 383,883 individuals vaccinated against tetanus (71 percent vaccine coverage).
  - 415,875 children vaccinated with Penta 3 (89 percent coverage) and 407,632 against measles/rubella (88 percent coverage).
- Women’s empowerment (SWEDD):
  - 95,527 schoolgirls obtained assistance in “safe spaces” in 212 junior high schools.
  - 3,000 vulnerable schoolgirls in 15 junior high schools received hot lunch since March.
  - 16,523 individuals sensitized in sexual and reproductive health.
- Professional insertion and civic service:
  - 1,700 youths trained as part of second-chance school.
  - 100 youths benefited from civic services, and 29,680 youths began insertion activities on July 7, 2023.

### Box 1 — Seven Key Recommendations of the Côte d’Ivoire C-PIMA and Green PFM Assessment
- Strengthen integration of the climate dimension into the PFM / PIM legal framework, especially through project appraisal and selection processes.
- Develop a standard methodology for environmental impact studies conducted as part of ex ante appraisal of projects, integrating a systematic assessment of impacts related to climate change.
- Integrate the impact of climate change in methodologies related to maintenance needs of public assets (notably roads and buildings), leveraging progress in stock and fixed asset accounting (comptabilité des matières) to map climate vulnerabilities of State assets.
- Reinforce quantification and modeling of climate change impacts and integrate these aspects in strategic documents, notably the Document de Programmation Budgétaire et Economique Pluriannuelle.
- Adopt a gradual approach to introduce climate sensitive budgeting, starting with a pilot on tagging public investment expenditure and building institutional framework (cooperation with line ministries, quality control) before extension to other expenditures.
- Finalize the framework for green sovereign bonds by installing the ESG committee and using it to identify State expenditures to underpin climate finance efforts and prerequisites/templates for reporting.
- Ensure adequate and sustained reinforcement of technical capacities on climate change and its inclusion in the PFM / PIM cycle.

*International Monetary Fund — content unit 1civea2023004 (excerpts as provided).*

### 19. The government is thus committed to pursue the implementation of the Economic and

### 1civea2023004 - 19. The government is thus committed to pursue the implementation of the Economic and

### Medium-term program objectives and priorities
- Program horizon: rest of 2023 and over 2024-26 to support the implementation of the 2021-25 NDP while preserving economic stability.
- Medium-term economic and structural reform aims:
  - preserve fiscal and debt sustainability;
  - boost domestic revenue mobilization (starting with measures in the Supplementary Budget for 2023) and strengthen PFM and debt management;
  - foster structural reforms for inclusive growth driven by productivity gains in the private sector and vertical diversification;
  - deepen financial inclusion;
  - invest in human capital;
  - strengthen resilience to climate change.

### Macroeconomic outlook and key targets
- Budget shortfall: 5.2 percent of GDP in 2023; decline gradually towards 3 percent of GDP by 2025.
- Inflation target: contained below the WAEMU community standard by 2026, at 2.9 percent.
- Current account deficit: decrease gradually and reach 3.7 percent of GDP by 2026.
- Growth projection: 6.9 percent average growth over 2024-26.
- Sectoral supply-side growth (averages):
  - secondary sector: 9.3 percent per year;
  - services sector: 7.1 percent per year;
  - primary sector: 5.3 percent per year.
- Demand-side drivers:
  - overall investment growth: 10.2 percent per year on average over the period;
  - private investment growth: 19.1 percent;
  - public investment growth: 9.9 percent.
- Inflation over 2024-26: average of 3.5 percent.
- External position:
  - current account deficit: 5.8 percent of GDP in 2023, declining to 3.7 percent of GDP in 2026;
  - overall balance: average deficit of 0.9 percent of GDP during 2024-26.
- Monetary/financial aggregates:
  - broad money: increase by an average of 11.2 percent per year over 2024-26;
  - claims on the economy: rise from 24.2 percent of GDP in 2024 to 26.3 percent of GDP in 2026.

### Fiscal policy stance and consolidation strategy
- Fiscal approach: revenue-based fiscal consolidation over the medium term to preserve macroeconomic stability, ensure debt sustainability, and secure fiscal space for critical expenditures (including targeted social and capital expenditures).
- Fiscal objectives:
  - achieve WAEMU fiscal deficit target of 3 percent of GDP by end-2025;
  - maintain Côte d’Ivoire’s moderate risk rating for debt distress.
- Fiscal policy instruments and characteristics:
  - increase domestic revenue mobilization over the near and medium term;
  - continued active debt management favoring concessional lending and best public investment practices (PIMA);
  - streamline current expenditures, including non-targeted subsidies, while maintaining capital expenditures;
  - budget regulation to align expenditures with available resources and protect priority expenditures;
  - prioritization of PFM reforms to improve management, transparency, and accountability.
- Budgetary policy main elements:
  - continuous improvement of tax policy and administration;
  - efficiently managing operation costs;
  - accelerating investments in growth-driving sectors;
  - strengthening expenditures to fight poverty;
  - ensuring public debt sustainability.

### Fiscal arithmetic and revenue targets
- 2023 specific targets and measures:
  - government intends to increase total tax revenue by 1 percent of GDP in 2023 to reduce the budget deficit to 5.2 percent of GDP in 2023 (a reduction of 1.6 percentage points of GDP compared to 2022).
  - government committed to raise CFAF 522 billion, or 1.2 percent of GDP, in petrol product taxes in 2023.
- Medium-term revenue target:
  - increase tax revenue by 2.5 percentage points of GDP, from 12.9 percent in 2022 to 15.4 percent of GDP in 2026.
- Overall fiscal adjustment ambition:
  - lower the budget deficit by 3.8 percentage points of GDP to 3 percent of GDP by 2025 (relying notably on the revenue gains above and prudent debt management).

### Medium-Term Revenue Mobilization Strategy (MTRS)
- MTRS status and publication:
  - currently being prepared, will be approved by the government next year, and a comprehensive summary will be published (SB for end-May 2024).
- MTRS objective: increase tax revenue to gradually converge toward the WAEMU tax revenue target of at least 20 percent of GDP.
- MTRS pillars and focus areas:
  - streamlining the tax system;
  - expanding the tax base (level taxation of undertaxed sectors; streamlining tax exemptions and other departures from the benchmark tax regime; taxing new taxable sectors, notably international digital services and new types of transportation using apps to connect users with drivers);
  - control fraud, smuggling, evasion, and tax optimization;
  - strengthen transfer pricing policy;
  - strengthen environmental taxation;
  - continue to upgrade tax administration;
  - implement necessary legal framework reforms and follow international and regional taxation guidelines.
- Governance and consultation:
  - a governance entity and a working group established to manage the MTRS program and collaborate with the IMF and other technical assistance providers;
  - consultations with key private sector and civil society stakeholders planned.

### Additional revenue and administration measures (selected)
- Specific administrative and tax measures to be implemented or continued:
  - improve modules for tax audits and managing automatic VAT deductions;
  - implement projects to survey and enhance security of parcels (financed by PAGEF and PIDUCAS);
  - continue Committee to Optimize the Real Estate Tax Yield (CORIF) work;
  - revise property taxation system in the second half of 2023;
  - digitalize registration, reporting, and payments via SIGEFIM;
  - strengthen property investigations and monitoring of special regimes and exemption measures;
  - strengthen risk-based tax auditing using a fraud-risk assessment model;
  - prepare and implement a plan to manage and collect outstanding tax arrears (SB for end-September 2023);
  - continue reducing exemptions as per the 2019 streamlining plan.

### 2024 budget and revenue/expenditure profile
- 2024 fiscal consolidation path:
  - government plans to lower the budget deficit by 1.1 percentage point of GDP from 5.2 percent of GDP in 2023 to 4.0 percent of GDP in 2024.
  - tax revenue increase targeted: 0.5 percentage points of GDP in 2024.
- 2024 revenue mobilization through petrol products:
  - government committed to mobilize CFAF 714.6 billion in 2024, or 1.4 percent of GDP, through petrol product taxes while respecting the automatic fuel price mechanism.
- Spending and social protection:
  - 2024 budget aims to contain total spending at 20.6 percent of GDP.
  - upgrades to the social register and expansion of the productive cash transfers program (PTMP): register 100,000 additional beneficiary households in the Single Social Register (RSU) per year over the next three years (with World Bank assistance).
  - targeted social spending in health, education, social protection, and youth employment: approximately 28.8 percent of pro-poor spending.
  - total capital expenditures projected to reach 7.4 percent of GDP on average during the program period (2.8 percentage points higher than 2019 pre-COVID-19 level).
- Budget coverage and transparency:
  - draft 2024 budget law expands coverage of fiscal accounts by including collected Péréquation Produit revenue and taxes paid for and collected by the state related to donor externally financed projects in the TOFE (per WAEMU directive and GFSM 2014).

### Box 3 — Tax Policy and Revenue Administration Measures in 2024 (Impact in billions of CFAF)
- Tax Policy Measures:
  - Raise the cacao registration duty (from 4 to 5 percent): 36
  - Improve the provisions of the general tax code for property taxation, in particular for the valuation of developed and undeveloped land: 60
  - Streamline tax exemptions: 51
  - Continue and strengthen the implementation of the exemption streamlining plan: 26
  - Redesign the provisions on exemptions linked to the investment code (end-September 2024 SB): 20
  - Expand the VAT to some food products that are not basic necessities: 5
  - End the preferential tax regime applicable to economic and subsidized housing: 2
  - Raise the fixed duty fee for the formalization of various civil acts (creating companies, shares transfers) from CFAF 18,000 to CFAF 25,000: 1
  - Establish a 4 percent registration fee for land transfers performed without a notary: 2
  - Establish a single tax return on wages and social contributions: 5
  - Require public transport and/or freight companies falling under an actual tax regime to pay value-added tax: 10
  - Establish a tax on online sports betting: 2
- Tax Administration Measures:
  - Issue an application decree to subject luxury rice imports to the reduced VAT rate: 4
  - Issue an application decree to subject imported offal to the reduced VAT rate: 4
  - Ensure better supervision of transfer pricing: 13
  - Establish a tobacco traceability mechanism to control smuggling: 20
  - Enlarge the tax base: 16
  - Improve the performance of tax agencies by strengthening risk analysis and putting in place eight new SIGICI modules (VAT deduction, Geographic Information System, auditing, exemptions and property taxation): 30
- TOTAL: 256

### Exemptions governance and monitoring
- Government actions:
  - set up a committee to monitor tax exemptions granted for co-financed projects;
  - elaborate a harmonized framework defining the tax regime applicable to government projects, including eligibility criteria and estimation of corresponding tax expenditures for inclusion in the annual budget (in line with WAEMU provisions);
  - limit exemptions exclusively to VAT and customs duties (no other taxes);
  - implement an exemptions surveillance system to prevent fraud.

### Debt policy and debt management
- Debt sustainability assessment:
  - latest DSA indicates Côte d’Ivoire has a “moderate overall and external debt risk” rating.
  - stock of external debt and total public debt remain vulnerable to negative shocks (GDP growth, total revenue, exports, euro-US dollar exchange rate, contingent liabilities).
- 2023-26 debt policy objectives:
  - contain increases in liquidity ratios (external debt service to exports; external debt service to fiscal revenue excluding grants) to maintain “moderate” risk rating and strengthen resistance to external shocks.
- 2023 borrowing and financing strategy:
  - government plans new loans within the limit of $4.650 billion in present value for 2023.
  - financing mix over 2023–26: on average, 44 percent external financing and 56 percent domestic financing.
  - average composition of external financing over 2023-26:
    - concessional financing (project or program loans): 21 percent;
    - semi-concessional loans: 43 percent;
    - commercial loans: 14 percent;
    - financing in international markets: 22 percent.
  - domestic financing composition over 2023-26:
    - short-term loans: 11 percent;
    - medium-term loans: 34 percent;
    - long-term loans: 55 percent.
  - continued preference for concessional loans and adherence to PIMA best public investment practices.
- Institutional and operational debt management reforms:
  - establishment of National Public Debt Committee (CNDP) assisted by Committee of Debt Experts (CED);
  - draft law on national public debt policy adopted by the Council of Ministers on September 28, 2023 (SB for end-September 2023);
  - creation and operationalization of the General Financing Directorate (DGF) by Decree No. 2021-454 of September 8, 2021, to replace the Public Debt and Grants Directorate (DDPD); DGF to be operationalized before end-2023 with appointment of managers and organization of units;
  - CED to prepare annually a medium-term debt strategy (MTDS) covering the subsequent five years (MTDS updated in 2023 to be annexed to the 2024 Budget Law);
  - quarterly Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) using the Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF);
  - continued IMF technical assistance for assessment, monitoring, and management of public debt risks, including fiscal risks related to public enterprises;
  - gradual expansion of debt coverage before end-2025 to include public enterprises (in line with the Public Sector Statistics Guide (2011 PSSG)).

*IMF staff summary of Côte d’Ivoire program content unit.*

### 36. The government realizes that strengthening human capital is essential to enhance

### 36. The government realizes that strengthening human capital is essential to enhance

### Health: investments and training
- 2023-27 Hospital Program to increase intake capacity in healthcare training centers and investment at various levels of the health pyramid.
- 2023–25 plan: build 12 new health centers and renovate 10 existing centers.
- Increase training cohorts in the National Healthcare Workers Training Center (INFAS), increase the number of medical students, and increase funding to train specialist physicians.
- Resulting capacity targets:
  - more than 130 new operating rooms; and
  - more than 4,000 additional beds.

### Education: infrastructure, human resources, and digitalization
- Major infrastructure projects:
  - construct 92 preschool classrooms and 243 primary-school classrooms in Bagoué, Béré, Bounkani, Kabadougou, Poro and Tchologo.
  - build and equip 105 primary schools with four classrooms in Lôh-Djiboua, la Nawa, Haut-Sassandra and Guémon (Child Learning and Education Facility Project, CLEF).
  - build 47 local junior high schools.
  - build one secondary school of excellence for girls in Sinématiali.
  - build 13 secondary schools for young girls and one boarding junior high school for girls.
  - under the Debt Reduction and Development Contract (C2D): commission 19 local junior high schools and deliver 37 local junior high schools nationwide.
- Human resources:
  - train 8,543 teachers in Lôh-Djiboua, la Nawa, Haut-Sassandra and Guémon as part of CLEF.
- Systems and governance:
  - adopt and implement a national digitalization strategy for education.
  - establish target and performance contracts with regional directorates.

### Social policy and youth programs (PSGouv and PJGouv)
- Continue proactive social policy to alleviate poverty and social inequalities, focusing on youth in 2023.
- 2023-25 Government Youth Program (PJGouv):
  - set of priority actions: citizen engagement, technical training, social and occupational insertion, health, security, educational/athletic/cultural leisure activities.
  - total cost estimated at CFAF 1,118, 32.3 percent of which is funded through the 2023 budget.
  - include more than 700,000 youths through training, occupational integration, entrepreneurship, scholarships, and financial assistance programs.
- PSGouv 2:
  - the 2023 budget amounts to CFAF 735.9 billion, and 61.2 percent is funded by the government budget.

### Second Chance School (E2C) and Academy of Talents (ACT): targets and planned actions
- Objective: reduce unemployment or poor integration among youth; reach a professional insertion rate of about 80 percent for graduates and train and integrate 400,000 individuals by 2025 through E2C and ACT deployment.
- Box 4 — Key E2C and ACT Actions

  - Second Chance School (E2C)
    - Deploy Learning and the Validation of Experience Achievement Validation (VAE).
      - Train 4,000 youths through apprenticeships.
      - Certify 1,000 workers using the Experience Achievement Validation (VAE).
    - Build and equip educational infrastructure:
      - Build and equip two Apprentice Training Centers in Gagnoa and Yopougon.
      - Renovate and equip ten apprenticeship workshops in Abengourou, Abidjan, Botro, Bouaké, Daloa, Daoukro and Ferké.
      - Create five field schools and build and equip two garage schools.
      - Acquire two (2) Mobile Training Units in Tchologo and Bounkani.

  - Academy of Talents (ACT)
    - Build and equip Technical Education and Vocational Training (ETFP) centers:
      - Build 12 vocational training centers in Abidjan and Dabakala, Diabo, Gbéléban, Kong, Korhogo, Yamoussoukro, Daloa, Dimbokro, Dabou, Agboville and Botro.
      - Build and equip an agriculture department in the IPNETP (Abidjan).
      - Build and equip a Curricula Development and Management Center in Cocody.
      - Build and equip a Training Center for Renewable Energy Careers in Yopougon.
    - Renovate ETFP infrastructures:
      - Renovate and equip 8 establishments in Yamoussoukro, Alépé, Adzopé, Bouaké, and Abidjan.
      - Upgrade classrooms in ETFP establishments.
    - Acquire equipment:
      - Acquire individual protection kits for 2,000 youth apprentices.
      - Acquire equipment for the IT, Automation and Mechanics workshops in the IPNETP.
      - Acquire teaching materials for the ETFP centers.

### Universal Health Coverage (CMU) enrollment and collection targets
- Aim to enroll 60 percent of the population by 2027, i.e., 20.7 million individuals.
- Strengthen enrollment operations via the September 28, 2022 Decree on mandatory enrollment in the CMU, automatic enrollment, and reinforcement of enrollment capacities.
- Collection rate targets:
  - private sector employee contributions: raise from 42 percent in 2022 to 70 percent in 2023, and to 85 percent in 2027.
  - enrolled informal sector individuals: increase collection from 1 percent in 2022 to 37.3 percent in 2027 through contributions paid by agricultural management and regulation units (coffee-cacao, rubber-palm oil, cotton-cashew).

### Public Financial Management (PFM) reforms: current and capital expenditure
- Continue PFM reforms to maximize effectiveness of public resource use.
- Current expenditure measures:
  - continue to implement budget regulations.
  - continue to hold program performance conferences.
  - continue to implement measures included in the wage bill strategy.
  - continue work to classify enterprises and update the reference price database.
- Capital expenditure measures:
  - continue efforts to reduce public procurement contracting delays.
  - gradually digitalize public procurement procedures.
  - continue efforts to improve capital expenditure absorption capacity.
- Additional planned actions:
  - evaluate boards of public enterprises via an independent consultant to identify governance reforms.
  - strengthen mechanism for monitoring debt of public enterprises.

### Public-private partnerships (PPPs) and fiscal risk management
- PPP portfolio as of end-2022: 65 active PPP projects; 3 contracts included a government guarantee; only one called on the guarantee.
- Strengthen PPP management framework and limit contracting commitments to usual contracting authority commitments.
- National PPP Steering Committee (CNP-PPP) responsibilities:
  - ensure commitments do not expose the government to near-term fiscal risks.
  - conduct annual assessments of fiscal risks related to PPP contracts and annual portfolio reviews.
  - publish information on the PPP portfolio in accordance with article 24 of Decree No. 2018-358.

### Fiscal supervision and transparency of public enterprises
- From 2017 to end-2022: 37 performance contracts signed and regularly monitored.
- Continue actions in 2023 with the signature of five new contracts.
- Audits: 39 audits conducted in public enterprises from 2018 to 2022.
- Forward plans:
  - conduct audits at least once every three years for enterprises with majority government interest.
  - conduct audits systematically for enterprises that ran a deficit for the past two years or are in financial distress.
  - 2023 audits: two already started and seven in the process of selecting an auditor.

### Treasury Single Account (TSA) consolidation
- As of June 2023, pooling of public revenue improved cash flow management; all expenditure operations now made through the TSA.
- Security of the SyGACUT application substantially strengthened since 2020; further upgrades expected with SyGACUT version 3.
- Medium-term plans: channel public debt operations and transactions related to co-financed projects through the TSA; include “régies de recettes” and “régies d’avances” operations.
- Timetable: adopt by end-2023 for closing accounts with commercial banks (SB for end-December 2023).
- Specific mechanism to be established for closing relevant accounts in the BNI.

### Public procurement transparency and digital procurement targets
- Implement 2019 public procurement code to improve efficiency and transparency.
- Electronic procurement mandatory targets:
  - at least 10 percent of ordinary procurement operations beginning in October 2023 (SB for end-December 2023).
  - at least 50 percent from January to June 2024 (SB for end-July 2024).
- Cap exceptional public procurement procedures to 20 percent of all contracts.
- Continue publishing lists of approved contracts, contracting parties, and procurement audit reports.

### TOFE and GFSM 2014 transition
- Expand scope of the TOFE in line with GFSM 2014 to gradually achieve a flow of funds table (TOF) for the public sector.
- Central government TOFE for 2022 produced in June 2023.
- 2023 work (with IMF technical assistance) to include:
  - one public enterprise (SOTRA); and
  - three extrabudgetary units: the Cotton Cashew Council, the National Civil Registry and Identification Office, ONECI, and the Agency for the Development of the Rice Sector in Côte d’Ivoire, ADERIZ.
- Continue to produce quarterly central government TOFE in accordance with GFSM 2014 within 90 days of the end of the quarter.
- Plan to establish a methodology for valuing in-kind benefits related to official vehicles with AFRITAC West technical assistance.
- Complete gradual transition to GFSM 2014.

### Major structural reforms for inclusive, private-sector-driven growth
- Reforms aligned with the 2021-25 NDP to strengthen the business environment and governance, enhance financial sector development and inclusion, improve resilience to climate change, and strengthen the statistics system.

### Business environment reforms and trade facilitation
- Complete 12 projects already started and launch remaining five projects in the 2020-22 Reform Agenda; adopt new 2024-26 reform agenda in November 2023.
- Finalize projects to expand the Single Enterprise Identifier to the interior, streamline and dematerialize licensing and business permits, revamp the Single Investor Services Portal (PUSI), and interconnect IT systems of public and financial administrations.
- Single Foreign Trade Facility (GUCE) to implement six new modules over 2023-27:
  - E-visit to facilitate scheduling of single and combined inspections of merchandise in June 2024.
  - EXEMPTION for issuing exemptions certificates for custom duties and fees in June 2024.
  - E-COO for issuing Certificates of Origin in December 2024.
  - E-MOVEMENT to monitor movements of goods, notifications of loading/unloading, entries/exits, and monitoring containers within terminals in December 2024.
  - E-RELEASE for invoicing and merchandise exit permits in December 2024.
  - E-BOOKING for export procedures, booking and verification of vessels cargo hold in December 2024.

### Industrial policy: clusters, agri-poles, and industrial infrastructure
- Industrial clusters:
  - Bonoua industrial zone: food companies established; rehabilitation work begun and technical studies conducted.
  - PK 24 industrial zone (Akoupé-Zeudji): area dedicated to construction materials (cement); almost ¾ of cement production industrial units located in this zone.
  - Feasibility study to create a textile free zone in Bouaké begun.
  - Recommendations and strategies for “Textile (clothing and furniture) and accessories” and “manufacturing of spare parts and vehicle assembly” clusters submitted for adoption and implementation in 2024.
  - Complete formulation of strategies for five other clusters before end-2023: “Agroindustry;” “Chemistry and Plastics Processing;” “Construction Materials, Furniture and Equipment;” “Pharmaceutical Industry;” and “Packaging.”
- Agri-poles:
  - nine poles identified; deploy gradually after starting work on Agri-poles 1 and 2: 2PAI-Bélier in Yamoussoukro and 2PAI-Nord in Sinématiali.
- Industrial infrastructure ecosystem reforms:
  - draft law on creation and management of industrial zones to be adopted soon by the Council of Ministers.
  - establish a dedicated Industrial Development Fund for industry financing with donor support.

### Support for SMEs: GUDE-CI and PEPITE
- GUDE-PME (Order No. 2022-73 of January 26, 2022): support SME development and facilitate access to financing; holding company with two subsidiaries (support and financing).
  - Operationalization status:
    - support company (Côte d’Ivoire PME) and SME loan guarantee company (SGPME) set up.
    - SGPME obtained its banking license in May 2023.
  - Reinforcement actions following 2023 operationalization:
    - validate GUDE articles.
    - adopt GUDE’s economic module specifying financing sources no later than end-2023.
    - elaborate and validate GUDE products and services for technical support and SME access to financing before December 31, 2023.
- PEPITE (Economic Program for Innovation and Transformation of Enterprises) under 2030 Côte d’Ivoire Vision:
  - aim: support entrepreneurship and promote resilient, high-potential SMEs within strategic value chains.
  - first cohort target: select between 100 and 150 enterprises, with 5 to 15 enterprises per strategic sector.
  - Call for applicants concluded March 1, 2023; consulting firm set assessment criteria and reviewed applications.
  - Selection juries put in place mid-September 2023; juries work to be completed by end-October 2023 to establish first cohort.
  - Call for applicants for second cohort to be launched in early 2024 at the latest.

*Source: IMF chapter content (CÔTE D’IVOIRE).*

### 50. Strengthening of governance and the fight against corruption will continue.

### 50. Strengthening of governance and the fight against corruption will continue.

### Governance and anti-corruption measures
- Council of Ministers will soon adopt the 2023-27 National Strategy for the Fight Against Corruption.
- Operationalization and use of the System for the Detection and Prevention of Acts of Corruption and Related Offenses (SPACIA) established by Decree No. 2022-264 of April 13, 2022:
  - SPACIA’s mission: receive reports of acts of corruption and related offenses, process them, and refer them to competent authorities; provide a statistical database for government decision-making.
  - Reported cases in first half of 2023: 237 cases reported through SPACIA, 129 of which were presumed cases of corruption and related offenses.
  - Long-run objectives: increase citizen participation in combatting corruption and increase effectiveness of governance actions.
- Preparation of first progress report of the National Action Plan (PNA) linked to the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) in 2023 to assess governance progress and identify remaining challenges.
- High Authority for Good Governance (HABG) measures to improve asset declaration compliance:
  - (i) integrated IT system to consolidate data on subject individuals;
  - (ii) sensibilization campaign targeted to low-compliance subject groups.
  - Post-campaign enforcement: government will take necessary actions, including enforcement of current legislation on sanctions, to increase the asset declaration rate toward 90 percent by end-December 2024.

### Anti-Money Laundering / Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) and extractive sector transparency
- Priority actions:
  - Implement recommendations from the 2019 Côte d’Ivoire assessment by the International Secretariat of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI).
  - Implement the AML/CFT supervision, control, and administrative sanctions framework approved by decree on March 2022 for certain designated non-financial businesses and professions (DNFBP) — notably real estate agents and brokers, dealers in precious metals and stones, casinos and gaming establishments, business agents (agents d’affaires), trust and company service providers — in line with recommendations in IMF-led AML/CTF assessment (SB for end-May 2024).
  - Adopt other priority reforms identified in that assessment; government has elaborated a matrix of specific measures that would improve compliance with the 40 FATF recommendations and the effectiveness of the AML/CFT framework in Côte d’Ivoire.

### Financial development, public bank reforms, and financial inclusion
- Reform of public banks will continue with emphasis on BHCI and BPCI.
  - Banque de l’Habitat de Côte d’Ivoire (BHCI):
    - Government working to bring the bank into compliance with regulatory requirements through additional capital contributions from all shareholders, including the government.
    - Implementation of the new strategic plan over the next five years to strengthen the bank and make it the reference for real estate financing.
  - Banque Populaire de Côte d’Ivoire (BPCI):
    - Efforts over last five years strengthened the bank’s financial position.
    - Due diligence to open the bank’s capital to investors; process should be completed by end-2024 at the latest and bring the bank into compliance with regulation, notably on capital requirements.
- Financial market deepening and inclusion measures under Financial Sector Development Strategy (FSDS):
  - Implement the Factoring Law adopted in December 2022.
  - Promote leasing operations within the financial ecosystem.
  - Operationalize the Agricultural Commodities Exchange (BMPA) by adopting relevant legal framework and launching activities in 2023.
  - Increase mobilization of long-term resources by stepping up activities of the Caisse de Dépôt et de Consignation.
  - Continue implementing the National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS 2019-24), which seeks to raise the financial inclusion rate from 41 percent in 2017 to 60 percent in 2024.
  - Terms of reference prepared to conduct a mid-term review of the NFIS to incorporate government’s new priorities in line with NDP objectives, especially in terms of women access to financial services (SB for end-May 2024).
  - Key findings from this review will be adopted in the Council of Ministers by end-May 2024 at the latest.
  - Based on findings, a new 2025-29 NFIS will be prepared by the end of 2024.

### Climate change resilience and NDCs
- Revised Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted in May 2022:
  - Mitigation target: 30.41 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 (compared to 28.25 percent previously).
  - Adaptation focus: increased resilience in five key sectors: forestry, agriculture, water resources, coastal zones, and health.
- Mitigation strategies to deploy: REDD+ National Strategy; New Forestry Policy; National Strategy to Reduce SLCP (Short-Lived Climate Pollutants).
- Adaptation actions: continue implementation under National Gender and Climate Change Strategy (adopted 2019) and National Agriculture Investment Program 2 (2018-25 PNIA).
- Incorporate findings from technical assistance (C-PIMA and green fiscal management) and World Bank CCDR report when deploying climate policy.
- Five priority reform axes:
  - (i) encourage sustainable cacao production and development of “zero deforestation” sectors;
  - (ii) control and lower greenhouse gas emissions by developing low-carbon operations (transportation, electricity, etc.);
  - (iii) increase climate-related financing and investment, both public and private;
  - (iv) strengthen resiliency to disasters (control flooding and coastal erosion, build resilient infrastructures);
  - (v) strengthen legal, governance, and institutional framework.

### Strengthening the statistics system
- Adopt implementing regulations for Law No. 2020-950 of December 7, 2020, amending and supplementing Law No. 2013-537 of July 30, 2013 on organization of the National Statistics System, including decrees for:
  - organization and operation of the National Public Statistics Authority (ANSP);
  - creation, responsibilities, makeup, organization, and operation of the National Statistics Council (CNStat);
  - creation, responsibilities, organization, and operation of the National Statistics Agency (ANStat);
  - creation, responsibilities, organization, and operations of the National Statistics Development Fund (FNDS).
- Steps to step up production and dissemination of statistical data:
  - construct new indicators;
  - improve national accounts;
  - upgrade enterprises database;
  - subscribe to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) by end-2025.
- Specific statistical deliverables and timelines:
  - publish the final 2020 Annual National Accounts (ANA) in November 2023 and the final 2021 ANA and provisional 2022 ANA in December 2023;
  - complete alignment of Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) with rebased ANA by January 2024 and begin production of QNA from the expenditures approach;
  - continue development of high-frequency indicators: revamped Advanced Public Works and Construction Indicator (IA BTP), industry opinion balances, turnover index (ICA) for services, production price index for services (IPPS), and final household consumption index;
  - revamp harmonized consumer price index (IHPC) with new base year (2023); pursue regular production of industrial production price index (IPPI) and harmonized production price index (IHPI); develop unit value indices (IVUs) for exports and imports;
  - conduct the 2022-2023 Côte d’Ivoire General Census of Enterprises and Establishments (RGEE-CI) included in the Program for the Harmonization and Improvement of Statistics (PHAS) to obtain an up-to-date economic and financial database and establish a Geographic Information System (SIG);
  - revamp the INS website to make it more user-friendly and disseminate all available indicators;
  - continue efforts to subscribe to the SDDS in 2025 and become the sixth Sub-Saharan African country to do so.

### Program financing and monitoring
- Government estimates financing needs for 2024–26 program will be covered and financing sources identified for next 12 months.
  - Additional financing will be mobilized on the regional money market and with external partners.
  - Domestic financing: optimize recourse to fundraising on the regional market to preserve private sector access to credit.
  - External financing: resort to international markets depending on financial conditions; give preference to grants to help strengthen regional FX reserves.
- Program monitoring:
  - Monitored half-yearly by IMF Executive Board on basis of quantitative performance criteria, indicative targets, and structural benchmarks (Tables 1 and 2).
  - Third and fourth semi-annual reviews will take place on or after November 15, 2024 and May 15, 2025 respectively, and be based on end-June 2024 and end-December 2024 test dates for periodic performance criteria and indicative targets.
  - Proposed modifications: March 2024 indicative targets aligned with the 2024 Budget Law; proposed modification to May 2024 structural benchmark clarifies publication of the MTRS will be in line with international practice.
- Government commitments under program:
  - refrain from accumulating new domestic arrears and all types of advances on revenue and from contracting nonconcessional external loans other than those specified in the TMU;
  - issue public securities at auction through the BCEAO or other issuance in the WAEMU financial market, and consult with IMF staff for all new financing;
  - refrain from introducing or intensifying restrictions on payments and transfers for international current transactions, introduce multiple currency practices, enter into bilateral payments agreements inconsistent with Article VIII of the IMF Articles of Agreement, or impose or intensify import restrictions for balance of payments purposes;
  - adopt any new financial or structural measures necessary for success of policies, in consultation with the IMF.

*Source: Content unit 1civea2023004.*

### 4. For program monitoring purposes, performance criteria (PCs) and indicative targets

### 4. For program monitoring purposes, performance criteria (PCs) and indicative targets

### Overview
- PCs and ITs are set for June 30, 2024, and December 31, 2024; the same variables are indicative targets for September 30, 2024.
- PCs, ITs and adjustors are calculated as the cumulative change from January 1, 2023 for the 2023 targets and from January 1, 2024 for the 2024 targets (Table 1 of the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, MEFP).

### Performance Criteria (PCs)
- The PCs include:
  - (a) a floor on the overall fiscal balance (including grants);
  - (b) a ceiling on net domestic financing (including the issuance of securities in francs of the Financial Community of Africa (CFA)—or Communauté Financière Africaine in French);
  - (c) a ceiling on the present value of new external debt (with a maturity of more than one year) contracted or guaranteed by the central government;
  - (d) a floor on government tax revenue;
  - (e) a zero ceiling on the accumulation of central government new external arrears;
  - (f) a zero ceiling on the accumulation of central government new domestic arrears.

### Indicative Targets (ITs)
- The ITs are:
  - a) a floor on targeted social spending;
  - b) a ceiling on expenditures by treasury advance;
  - c) a floor on the net reduction of central government amounts payable;
  - d) a floor on the basic primary balance.

### A. Overall Fiscal Balance Including Project Grants (PC)
- Definition: {Total government revenue (tax and nontax) + (Project grants)} – {Expenditure + Net lending (on a payment order basis)}.
- Project grants only are included in fiscal revenue.
- Government expenditures are defined as expenditures for which payment orders have been issued and taken over by the Treasury.

### B. Net Domestic Financing (PC)
- Net domestic financing (NDF) definition:
  - NDF = Variation of banking system’s net claims on the government (TOFE)
  - + Net non-bank domestic financing (excluding the net variation of amounts payable)
  - + Borrowing denominated and serviced in francs of the Financial Community of Africa (CFAF), excluding BOAD loans
  - + Financing margin of CFAF 15 billion.
- The ceiling includes a margin of CFAF 15 billion above the net cumulative flow projected for each quarter.
- For any new borrowing over and above a cumulative amount of CFAF 50 billion, the government undertakes to issue government securities only by auction through the BCEAO or through other form of government securities on the WAEMU financial market registered with the WAMU Financial Market Authority (AMF-UMOA), in consultation with Fund staff.
- Adjustor for NDF ceiling:
  - The NDF ceiling will be adjusted upward by the full amount of the difference between the effectively disbursed and the projected budget support (MEFP, Table 1).
  - Specifically, adjusted upwards by the amount of C2D grant expected for that quarter, but not yet deposited by AFD into the C2D account (Compte C2D) at the BCEAO, on the test date (MEFP, Table 1).

### C. External Debt (PC)
- General debt definition follows paragraph 8(a) of the Guidelines on Public Debt Conditionality in Fund Arrangements (Decision No. 16919-(20/103), October 28, 2020), including:
  - (i) loans (advances of money, deposits, bonds, debentures, commercial loans and buyers’ credits, repurchase agreements, official swap arrangements),
  - (ii) suppliers’ credits,
  - (iii) leases (debt equals present value at inception of all lease payments expected during agreement).
- Arrears, penalties, and judicially awarded damages arising from failure to make payment under a contractual obligation that constitutes debt are debt.
- External debt is defined as debt contracted or serviced in a currency other than the franc of the Financial Community of Africa (CFAF), except for CFAF-denominated debt owed to the BOAD which is also considered external debt.
- The PC on the present value (PV) of new external debt applies to all new external debt (whether or not concessional), including commitments contracted or guaranteed for which no value has been received.
- Exemptions to the PC on new external debt:
  - normal import-related commercial debts having a maturity of less than one year;
  - rescheduling agreements;
  - IMF disbursements.
- For program monitoring purposes, external debt is deemed contracted or guaranteed once all conditions for its entrance into effect have been met, including government approval if necessary.
- For eurobond issuance, amount deemed contracted is the amount subscribed/purchased at the end of the subscription/purchase period as specified in final clauses.
- For program purposes, the value in U.S. dollars of new external debt is calculated using the average exchange rate for December 2022 in the IMF’s IFS database:
  - 619.481 FCFA per U.S. dollar,
  - 1.059 U.S. dollar per euro,
  - 1.329 U.S. dollar per SDR.

### PV Calculation and Concessionality
- PV of new external debt calculation:
  - Discount all future debt service payments (principal and interest) using a program discount rate of 5 percent.
  - Take account of loan conditions: maturity, grace period, payment schedule, front-end fees, management fees.
  - Use the IMF model for this calculation based on loan amount.
- Concessionality:
  - A debt is concessional if on the date contracted the ratio of its present value to its face value is less than 65 percent (equivalent to a grant element of at least 35 percent).
  - For loans with grant element zero or less than zero, PV is set equal to face value.
- Variable interest rate debt (reference rate + fixed margin):
  - PV calculated on basis of program reference rate plus fixed margin specified in loan agreement.
  - Program reference rate for the euro six-month FIRF is 2.63 percent and will remain unchanged for the duration of the program.
  - The spread of the US$ six-month FIRF over the euro six-month FIRF is 50 basis points.

### Adjustors for PV of New External Debt
- The program ceiling on the PV of new external debt is adjusted upward up to a maximum of 5 percent of the ceiling on the PV of external debt when differences vis-à-vis the PC are caused by variations in financing conditions (interest, maturity, grace period, payment schedule, front-end fees, management fees).
- The adjustor may not be applied when differences result from an increase in the face value of the total debt contracted or guaranteed.
- The authorities will inform IMF staff of any planned external borrowing and the conditions before loans are contracted or guaranteed.

### D. Floor on Central Government Tax Revenue (PC)
- Total tax revenue definition: all fungible tax revenue collected by DGI, DGTCP and DGD, as well as earmarked tax revenue as defined in TOFE; excludes revenues from asset sales, grants, and non-tax revenues.
- The program will have a floor on central government tax revenues set at 95 percent of the projected tax revenue for the rest of the current year to account for fluctuations due to unforeseen factors beyond government control.
- The revenue target is calculated as the cumulative flow from the beginning of the calendar year.
- Note: "The margin of 95 percent does not apply to realized quarterly tax revenue."

### E. External Payments Arrears (PC)
- External arrears = nonpayment of any interest or principal amounts on their due dates (taking into account contractual grace periods).
- Applies to arrears on external debt contracted by the government and external debt guaranteed by the government for which guarantee has been called.
- This continuous PC will be monitored continuously by the authorities and any non-observance will be reported promptly to the Fund.

### F. Amounts Payable, Including Domestic Payment Arrears (IT and PC)
- “Amounts payable” (balances outstanding) include domestic arrears and floating debt and represent overdue government obligations; defined as expenditures assumed (prise en charge) by the public accountant but yet to be paid.
- For program purposes these include:
  - (i) bills due and not paid to nonfinancial public and private companies;
  - (ii) the domestic debt service.
- Domestic payment arrears definitions:
  - Arrears to suppliers = overdue obligations for which payment delay exceeds the regulatory delay of 90 days.
  - Arrears on domestic debt service = debt service obligations for which payment delay exceeds 30 days beyond contractually stipulated time, including grace periods.
- Floating debt = balances outstanding for which the payment delay does not exceed the regulatory delay (90 days for debt to nonfinancial companies and 30 days for debt service).
- Balances outstanding are broken down by payer and type, and by maturity and length of time overdue (< 90 days, 90–365 days, > 1 year for amounts owing to nonfinancial companies; <30 days, 30-365 days, > 1 year for amounts owing to financial institutions).
- For program purposes, the ceiling on the accumulation of new domestic payments arrears is zero. This continuous PC will be monitored continuously and any non-observance will be reported promptly to the Fund.

### G. Targeted Social Spending (IT)
- Targeted social spending derived from list of targeted programs in SIGOBE (see Table 3) covering:
  - Social protection: productive cash-transfer program and social registry budget.
  - Health: RAM-CMU, operating costs of primary health facilities, and Caisse Nationale d’Assurance Maladie (CNAM).
  - Education.
  - Youth employment.
- Table 3 totals for Targeted Social Spending (Billions of CFA):
  - TOTAL 2023: 700.0
  - TOTAL 2024: 949.2
  - Quarterly/cumulative entries in Table 3 include: Q3 2023 = 229.7; Q4 2023 = 462.1; January-September 2023 totals and January-December 2023 and 2024 breakdowns presented in Table 3 for Social Protection, Health, Education, Youth Employment with sectoral and program-level lines (e.g., Social Protection Q3 = 19.2, Q4 = 27.1; Health Q3 = 192.5, Q4 = 268.8; Education Q3 = 483.3, Q4 = 647.5; Youth Employment Q3 = 5.0, Q4 = 5.8).
- Specific program line items and quarterly flows are presented in Table 3 (e.g., National social safety net support program, Universal Health Insurance for the destitute support program, Primary and preschool education, etc.).

### H. Treasury Advances (IT)
- Definition: spending paid for by the Treasury outside normal and simplified execution and control procedures (Decree No. 1998-716) not subject to prior commitment and authorization.
- Exclusions: “régies d’avances” (ministerial decree n° 2013-762) and extraordinary procedures in decree n° 1998-716 for externally financed expenditures, wages, subsidies and transfers, and debt service.
- The cumulative amount of expenditures by treasury advance will not exceed cumulative quarterly ceilings representing 10 percent of quarterly budget allocations (excluding externally financed expenditures, wages, subsidies and transfers, and debt service).
- The nominative and restrictive list of expenditures eligible as treasury advances is defined by ministerial Decree No. 178/MEF/CAB-01/26 of March 13, 2009.

### I. Primary Basic Fiscal Balance (IT)
- The document continues with the section on the primary basic fiscal balance (IT) following the Treasury advances and targeted social spending discussions.

*Source: 1civea2023004 — 4. For program monitoring purposes, performance criteria (PCs) and indicative targets — https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2023/english/1civea2023004.pdf*

### 26. The primary basic balance is the difference between the government’s total revenue

### 26. The primary basic balance is the difference between the government’s total revenue

### Definition of the primary basic balance
- Formula: Fiscal revenue (tax and nontax revenue, excluding grants) – {Total expenditure + Net lending – Interest payments – Externally financed capital expenditure (on a payment order basis for all expenditure items)}.
- Components and scope:
  - Fiscal revenue excludes grants.
  - Total expenditure includes expenditure corresponding to earmarked revenues and expenditures for which payment orders have been issued and which have been assumed by the Treasury.
  - Exclusions: interest payments and externally financed capital expenditure.

### Memorandum items — Net Banking System Claims on the Government
- Net banking system claims on the government are defined as the difference between government debts and government claims vis-à-vis the central bank and commercial banks (including the C2D deposits).
- The scope follows that used by the BCEAO and is the same as that shown in the Net Government Position (NGP) (including the C2D deposits).

### Memorandum items — External financing definitions
- Within the program framework:
  - Project grants: non-repayable money or goods intended for the financing of a specific project.
  - Program grants: non-repayable money or goods not intended for the financing of a specific project.
  - Project loans: repayable money or goods on which interest is charged, received from a donor to finance a specific project.
  - Program loans: repayable money or goods on which interest is charged, received from a donor and not intended for financing a specific project.

### Program monitoring and data reporting requirements
- Quarterly assessment report: Authorities to provide a quarterly assessment report on monitoring of quantitative performance criteria, indicative targets, and structural benchmarks no later than 45 days following the end of each quarter.
- Reporting deadlines:
  - The government will report the information specified in Table 5 no later than 45 days following the month-end or quarter-end, except where Table 5 specifies longer delays.
  - Final data provided by the BCEAO to be reported within 45 days following the month-end; includes complete, itemized listing of public sector assets and liabilities vis-à-vis: (i) the BCEAO; (ii) the National Investment Bank (Banque Nationale d’Investissement, or BNI); and (iii) the banking system (including the BNI).
  - Authorities will consult IMF staff on any proposed new external debt and will inform IMF staff of the signature of any new external debt contracted or guaranteed by the government, including conditions. Data on new external debt, amount outstanding, and accumulation and repayment of external payment arrears will be reported monthly within six weeks of the end of each month.
  - More generally, the authorities will report to IMF staff any information needed for effective monitoring of economic policies.

### Pro-poor spending
- Definition: Pro-poor spending is the list of “pro-poor expenditures” in the SIGFIP system as detailed in Table 4.
- Table 4: Pro-Poor Spending (Including Social Spending), 2023‒24 (Billions of CFA Francs)
  - Selected line items and quarterly/annual figures (preserve exact values):
    - Agriculture and rural development: Q3 65.4; Q4 87.2; Q1 22.9; Q2 44.6; Q3 56.8; Q4 97.5
      - General administration: 11.4; 15.2; 4.0; 8.9; 11.7; 15.3
      - Agriculture promotion and development program: 16.4; 21.9; 5.7; 11.3; 16.9; 23.5
      - Training of supervisory staff: 26.0; 34.7; 9.1; 16.4; 16.8; 39.7
      - Water system works: 5.7; 7.6; 2.0; 3.9; 5.4; 8.7
      - Other investments in the rural area (FRAR, FIMR): 5.9; 7.8; 2.1; 4.0; 6.0; 10.4
    - Fishing and animal husbandry: 13.0; 17.4; 3.0; 9.0; 13.1; 16.2
      - General administration: 7.3; 9.7; 2.5; 5.0; 7.5; 10.1
      - Milk production and livestock farming: 1.9; 2.6; 0.2; 1.3; 2.0; 2.3
      - Fishing and aquaculture: 3.8; 5.1; 0.3; 2.6; 3.6; 3.8
    - Education: 1,261.2; 1,674.1; 395.2; 910.5; 1,294.3; 1,646.2
      - General administration: 78.6; 104.8; 25.3; 54.1; 80.6; 99.9
      - Pre-schooling and primary education: 504.4; 658.7; 139.5; 340.0; 517.6; 691.9
      - Literacy: 0.5; 0.7; 0.2; 0.3; 0.5; 0.7
      - Secondary education and vocational training: 475.7; 640.6; 154.7; 330.7; 488.2; 591.6
      - University and research: 202.1; 269.4; 75.6; 185.3; 207.4; 262.0
    - Health: 425.8; 640.3; 115.6; 253.1; 404.0; 627.0
      - General administration: 179.5; 287.0; 54.3; 134.9; 184.2; 299.9
      - Primary health system: 109.3; 167.5; 23.0; 44.4; 112.2; 190.1
      - Preventive healthcare (enlarged vaccination program): 1.6; 2.1; 0.6; 1.1; 1.6; 2.1
      - Disease and pandemic combat programs: 55.3; 73.7; 8.8; 38.0; 48.7; 49.1
      - Infant/mother health and nutrition: 9.7; 16.3; 4.3; 4.3; 10.0; 23.5
      - HIV/Aids: 30.6; 40.9; 10.7; 3.1; 6.5; 6.8
      - Health centers and specialized programs: 39.7; 52.9; 13.9; 27.3; 40.7; 55.4
    - Water and Sanitation: 111.0; 140.4; 31.6; 74.5; 113.9; 203.7
      - Access to drinking water and sanitation: 79.0; 97.7; 20.4; 52.5; 81.0; 106.9
      - Environmental protection and pollution combat: 32.0; 42.7; 11.2; 22.0; 32.9; 96.7
    - Energy (Access to electricity): 101.0; 154.7; 40.6; 82.9; 103.7; 121.9
    - Roads and Public Works: 258.4; 382.7; 94.4; 168.1; 299.2; 420.3
      - Rural road maintenance: 10.5; 14.0; 3.7; 7.2; 10.7; 22.0
      - Construction of public works: 54.4; 85.9; 12.0; 44.3; 85.8; 136.9
      - Other road projects: 193.6; 282.8; 78.7; 116.5; 202.6; 261.4
    - Social spending total: 59.1; 76.1; 20.0; 39.3; 60.6; 88.4
      - General administration: 13.0; 17.3; 4.6; 9.0; 13.4; 17.3
      - Women's vocational training: 2.5; 3.4; 0.9; 1.7; 2.6; 4.0
      - Orphanages, day nurseries, and social centers: 20.9; 27.8; 7.3; 14.4; 21.4; 27.2
      - Training of support staff: 1.3; 1.7; 0.4; 0.9; 1.3; 1.6
    - Decentralization (excl. education, health and agriculture): 82.7; 110.3; 23.7; 56.9; 99.9; 134.3
    - Reconstruction: 9.1; 12.2; 2.1; 4.3; 5.1; 5.5
      - Reconstruction and rehabilitation: 1.6; 2.1; 0.6; 1.1; 1.3; 1.4
      - Social housing: 7.5; 10.0; 1.6; 3.2; 3.7; 4.1
    - Other poverty-fighting spending total: 16.6; 22.2; 6.9; 11.4; 16.1; 43.9
      - Promotion and insertion of youth: 13.0; 17.3; 5.6; 8.9; 13.3; 40.9
      - Development of tourism and craftmanship: 3.7; 4.9; 1.3; 2.5; 2.8; 3.0
    - TOTAL: 2,403.4; 3,317.6; 756.0; 1,654.6; 2,466.6; 3,404.8
- Source for Table 4: Ivoirian authorities.

### Document transmittal requirements for program monitoring (Table 5 — selected deadlines)
- Real sector:
  - Cyclical indicators: Monthly, transmittal deadline End of month + 45 days.
  - Provisional national accounts: Annually, End of year + 9 months.
  - Final national accounts: Variable, 60 days after revision.
  - Disaggregated consumer price indices: Monthly, End of month + 45 days.
- Energy sector:
  - Crude oil: offtake report: Quarterly, End of quarter + 45 days.
  - Oil product price structure: Monthly, End of month + 45 days.
- Public finances (selected):
  - Fiscal reporting table (TOFE): Monthly, End of month + 45 days.
  - Budget execution report: Quarterly, End of quarter + 45 days.
  - Estimated tax revenue: Monthly, End of month + 45 days.
  - Pro-poor expenditures: Monthly, End of month + 45 days.
  - Consolidated Treasury balances outstanding: Monthly, End of month + 45 days.
  - Annual cash flow plan: Annually, End of year + 45 days.
  - Execution of cash flow plan: Quarterly, End of quarter + 45 days.
- Domestic debt:
  - Detailed domestic debt statement: Monthly, End of month + 45 days.
  - Breakdown of new domestic loans and guarantees: Monthly, End of month + 45 days.
  - Detailed projected domestic debt service: Quarterly, End of quarter + 45 days.
- External debt:
  - Detailed external debt statement: Monthly, End of month + 45 days.
  - Breakdown of new external loans and guarantees: Monthly, End of month + 45 days.
  - Table of disbursements on new loans: Monthly, End of month + 45 days.
  - Projected external debt service: Quarterly, End of quarter + 45 days.
- Public companies:
  - Debt statement of public companies: Quarterly, End of quarter + 90 days.
  - List of public companies: Quarterly, End of quarter + 45 days.
- Balance of payments:
  - Provisional balance of payments: Annually, End of year +9 months (provisional); end of year + 12 months (final).
- Monetary and financial sectors (selected):
  - Banking survey: Monthly, End of month + 45 days (provisional); end of month + 60 days (final).
  - Summary BCEAO position: Monthly, End of month + 45 days (provisional); end of month + 60 days (final).
  - Net government position: Monthly, End of month + 45 days.
  - Financial soundness indicators: Quarterly, End of month + 45 days.

### Selected economic indicators (Table 6) — key figures (annual percentage changes unless otherwise indicated; percent of GDP unless otherwise indicated)
- National income:
  - GDP at constant prices: 2021 7.4; 2022 6.7; 2023 6.4; 2024 6.5; 2025 6.4; 2026 6.3
  - Consumer price index (annual average): 2021 4.2; 2022 5.2; 2023 4.7; 2024 3.8; 2025 3.0; 2026 2.2
- External sector (on the basis of CFA francs):
  - Exports of goods, f.o.b., at current prices: 2021 18.2; 2022 20.5; 2023 6.0; 2024 11.3; 2025 8.8; 2026 8.0
  - Imports of goods, f.o.b., at current prices: 2021 24.3; 2022 36.8; 2023 1.5; 2024 5.3; 2025 4.3; 2026 6.0
  - Export volume: 2021 10.1; 2022 0.9; 2023 9.0; 2024 5.0; 2025 7.9; 2026 8.8
  - Import volume: 2021 1.1; 2022 5.0; 2023 9.4; 2024 5.5; 2025 4.8; 2026 6.2
- Central government operations (% of GDP):
  - Total revenue and grants: 2021 15.8; 2022 15.3; 2023 16.5; 2024 16.7; 2025 17.2; 2026 17.8
  - Total revenue: 2021 15.3; 2022 14.8; 2023 15.8; 2024 16.2; 2025 16.8; 2026 17.5
  - Tax revenue: 2021 13.2; 2022 12.9; 2023 13.9; 2024 14.5; 2025 15.1; 2026 15.7
  - Total expenditure: 2021 20.7; 2022 22.1; 2023 21.7; 2024 20.7; 2025 20.2; 2026 20.8
  - Current expenditure: 2021 14.9; 2022 14.9; 2023 14.4; 2024 13.0; 2025 13.9; 2026 14.0
  - Capital expenditure: 2021 5.8; 2022 7.2; 2023 7.3; 2024 7.7; 2025 6.3; 2026 6.8
  - Basic primary balance: 2021 -1.1; 2022 -1.8; 2023 0.4; 2024 -0.2; 2025 0.9; 2026 1.2
  - Overall balance, incl. grants, payment order basis: 2021 -4.9; 2022 -6.8; 2023 -5.2; 2024 -4.0; 2025 -3.0; 2026 -3.0
- External sector balances:
  - Current account balance: 2021 -4.0; 2022 -6.9; 2023 -5.8; 2024 -4.3; 2025 -3.3; 2026 -2.9
  - Non-interest current account balance: 2021 -2.9; 2022 -5.7; 2023 -4.4; 2024 -3.1; 2025 -2.1; 2026 -1.8
- Memorandum:
  - Nominal GDP (CFAF billions): 2021 39,821; 2022 43,682; 2023 47,825; 2024 52,125; 2025 56,570; 2026 61,337
- Sources: Ivorian authorities, and IMF staff estimates and projections. (Program; Prel. denotes preliminary where used.)

### Debt sustainability analysis — key findings and projections
- Overall risk ratings:
  - Risk of external debt distress: Moderate
  - Overall risk of debt distress: Moderate
  - Granularity in the risk rating: Limited space to absorb shocks
  - Application of judgement: Yes
  - Report date: November 14, 2023
- Summary findings:
  - Côte d’Ivoire’s overall and external public debt remain at moderate risk of debt distress, unchanged from the last DSA (May 2023 ECF and EFF arrangements request).
  - The baseline of the external debt service-to-revenue indicator breaches the threshold twice, in 2024 and 2025, and remains below the threshold during the remainder of the projection period.
  - All indicators except the PV of external debt-to-GDP are susceptible to a number of stress scenarios; the most extreme involves a shock to exports.
  - PV of overall debt-to-GDP ratio is below its threshold but exceeds it in a commodity price shock.
  - Mitigating factors: limited number of breaches in debt burden metrics; Côte d’Ivoire’s history of successful implementation of reforms under past Fund arrangements and a satisfactory start of the current arrangement; strong track record of market access; sustained active debt management; moderate risk signal from the market financing pressures tool.
  - The space to absorb shocks remains limited.
- Debt coverage and composition:
  - Public debt covers central government, central bank, guarantees provided by the central government (including guarantees related to state-owned enterprises' debt).
  - Public and external debt stocks as of end-2022: Public debt 56.8 percent of GDP; external debt 34.5 percent of GDP.
  - Projections for end-2023: public debt 57.8 percent of GDP; external debt 34.9 percent of GDP (vs. prior DSA projections of 58.1 and 35.6 percent of GDP respectively).
  - External debt composition remains dominated by commercial creditors followed by multilateral creditors.
- Recent developments and risks:
  - Latest macroeconomic developments show a softening of the rebound: Real output growth projected at 6.4 percent in 2023, compared to 6.7 percent in 2022.
  - Inflation expected to soften to 4.7 percent by end-2023 from 5.2 percent in 2022.
  - Current account balance improving due to terms of trade gains, notably rising cocoa prices.
  - Regional official reserves declined so far in 2023 with a sizable contribution from Côte d’Ivoire but expected to gradually recover over the medium-term.
  - Financing: debt financing shifted to shorter term domestic debt issuance in first half of 2023 at slightly higher interest rates; issuance of bonds at maturities of less than two years represented over 50 percent of total issuance from January to June 2023 (against 20 percent in the last DSA).
  - Projected interest rate impact: slightly higher interest characterized domestic debt issuance, on average about 0.2 ppt over the May 2023 DSA projections.
  - After projected increases in average interest rates in 2023 and 2024 reflecting market conditions, interest rates are projected to moderate and maturities are expected to lengthen over the medium-term, allowing authorities to favor domestic debt over external debt as part of their medium-term debt strategy.
- Debt-carrying capacity:
  - CI (Composite Indicator) is 2.9 based on April 2023 WEO and 2021 CPIA, corresponding to a final medium debt carrying capacity.
  - Authorities adopted the law on national debt policy in September 2023 and are revamping the debt department into Direction Générale des Financements to optimize mobilization and management of financing resources.
- Projections and scenario table highlights (comparison of previous vs. current DSA assumptions for select periods):
  - Nominal GDP (USD Billion), 2023-2028: Previous 93.9; Current 99.0
  - Real GDP (y/y % change), 2023-2028: Previous 6.4; Current 6.3
  - Revenue and grants (percent of GDP), 2023-2028: Previous 17.4; Current 17.4
  - Primary expenditure (percent of GDP), 2023-2028: 18.8 (corrected value noted)
  - Primary balance (percent of GDP), 2023-2028: Previous -1.4; Current -1.2
  - Non-interest current account balance (percent of GDP), 2023-2028: Previous -2.9; Current -2.5
  - Current account balance (percent of GDP), 2023-2028: Previous -4.0; Current -3.7
  - Foreign direct investment (net inflows), 2023-2028: 2.0
- Contingent liabilities and stress tests:
  - Public debt definition includes central government plus social security, central bank, government-guaranteed debt.
  - Default shock assumptions and other elements retained consistent with prior DSA; total additional items (other general government elements, SoE debt, PPP, financial market) sum to 9.3 percent of GDP in the sensitivity analysis.

*Source: Ivoirian authorities and IMF staff estimates, as presented in the provided document.*

### 7.      Côte d’Ivoire’s rating of external debt distress remains moderate when judgement is

### 7.      Côte d’Ivoire’s rating of external debt distress remains moderate when judgement is applied

### External debt distress rating — key findings
- Under the baseline scenario, the external debt service to revenue ratio still breaches the threshold twice in 2024 and 2025 before returning below the threshold for the rest of the projections period.
- Under the most extreme shock, the exports shock scenario:
  - the debt service-to-exports ratio breaches its threshold;
  - the PV of debt to export ratio breaches its threshold.
- A holistic approach based on judgement supports the continuation of a moderate risk of debt distress rating because of:
  - Côte d’Ivoire’s limited number of breaches;
  - its history of successful implementation of reforms under the past two Fund arrangements and a satisfactory start of the current arrangement;
  - its strong track record of market access;
  - sustained active debt management;
  - a moderate risk signal from the market financing pressures tool.
- The EMBI spread decreased from the last DSA from 756 to 674 bps as of November 3, 2023.
- The country maintains market access and debt service indicators are similar to the previous DSA.
- Policy implication highlighted: the criticality of improving domestic revenue mobilization to respond to the country’s development needs.

### Overall debt distress and vulnerability analysis
- Under the baseline, the PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio stays below the 55 percent threshold.
- Under the most extreme shock, the commodity price scenario:
  - the PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio breaches the 55 percent threshold in 2024 and stays above during the rest of the projections’ period.
- This result reflects the vulnerability of Côte d’Ivoire to price fluctuation, especially with the country’s dependance on cocoa exports representing more than one third of exports.
- The analysis stresses the importance of promoting further export diversification.
- Conclusion on resilience: The country has limited space to absorb shocks.

*Source: 1civea2023004 - 7.      Côte d’Ivoire’s rating of external debt distress remains moderate when judgement is applied.*

### 9.      The authorities agreed that Côte d’Ivoire remains at moderate risk of overall and

### 1civea2023004 - 9.      The authorities agreed that Côte d’Ivoire remains at moderate risk of overall and

### Debt-risk assessment and authorities' stance
- Côte d’Ivoire remains at moderate risk of overall and external debt distress.
- The authorities are strongly committed to keeping the country at moderate risk of debt distress.
- The authorities noted the fragility of the external debt service to revenue ratio as it "breaches twice the threshold in 2024 and 2025 leaving limited margin to absorb shocks."
- The authorities had a more favorable near-term outlook for reserves noting seasonal patterns.

### Policy commitments and ongoing actions
- The authorities are committed to:
  - continuing to manage actively their debt portfolio;
  - monitoring closely the concessionality of new contracts and the pace of disbursements to remain in the same debt distress category;
  - remaining strongly committed to the policies and targets under the ECF/EFF program, in particular for increasing domestic revenue mobilization.

### Stress tests, scenarios, and risk diagnostics
- Stress tests and tailored tests presented for 2023–33 include commodity price shocks, exports shocks, combined contingent liabilities, market financing shocks, and historical and natural disaster scenarios.
- Note on methodology: "The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in or before 2033. The stress test with a one-off breach is also presented (if any), while the one-off breach is deemed away for mechanical signals. When a stress test with a one-off breach happens to be the most exterme shock even after disregarding the one-off breach, only that stress test (with a one-off breach) would be presented."
- "All the additional financing needs generated by the shocks under the stress tests are assumed to be covered by PPG external MLT debt in the external DSA. Default terms of marginal debt are based on baseline 10-year projections."

### Key indicators and projections (selected, as reported)
- External debt (nominal) (percent of GDP):
  - 2020: 31.4
  - 2021: 32.2
  - 2022: 35.8
  - 2023: 36.2
  - 2024: 35.3
  - 2025: 33.6
  - 2026: 32.5
  - 2027: 31.8
  - 2028: 30.8
  - 2033: 24.0
  - 2043: 19.2
- Identified net debt-creating flows (percent of GDP, selected):
  - 2020: 3.1
  - 2021: 1.7
  - 2022: 9.0
  - 2023: 5.2
  - 2024: 4.2
  - 2025: 3.4
  - 2026: 3.1
  - 2027: 3.1
  - 2028: 3.2
  - 2033: 4.2
- PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (selected):
  - 2020: 8.4
  - 2021: 8.9
  - 2022: 9.0
  - 2023: 11.5
  - 2024: 14.2
  - 2025: 14.6
  - 2026: 12.5
  - 2027: 10.8
  - 2028: 11.4
  - 2033: 11.4
  - 2043: 8.7
- PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (selected):
  - 2020: 12.3
  - 2021: 13.1
  - 2022: 15.1
  - 2023: 17.5
  - 2024: 21.6
  - 2025: 21.4
  - 2026: 17.7
  - 2027: 14.9
  - 2028: 15.5
  - 2033: 13.6
  - 2043: 8.2
- Gross external financing need (Million of U.S. dollars) (selected):
  - 2020: 3121.8
  - 2021: 4604.8
  - 2022: 6646.2
  - 2023: 7060.7
  - 2024: 7609.0
  - 2025: 7396.0
  - 2026: 7230.0
  - 2027: 7293.3
  - 2028: 8080.3
  - 2033: 12850.2
  - 2043: 32164.5
- Key macroeconomic assumptions (Real GDP growth, percent):
  - 2020: 0.9
  - 2021: 7.4
  - 2022: 6.7
  - 2023: 6.4
  - 2024: 6.5
  - 2025: 6.4
  - 2026: 6.3
  - 2027: 6.1
  - 2028: 6.0
  - 2033: 5.8
  - 2043: 5.6
  - Average / projection entries also include: 6.8 and 6.1 in the table.

### Sensitivity analysis and benchmarks
- Sensitivity tables for 2023–33 report projections and multiple stress/bound/tailored tests for indicators including Debt service-to-exports ratio, Debt service-to-revenue ratio, PV of debt-to-exports ratio, PV of debt-to-GDP ratio, PV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio, and PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio for public debt.
- Thresholds and benchmark values are presented in the tables and figures; several bold values in the sensitivity tables indicate breaches of the threshold or benchmark in certain scenarios.

_Statement by Mr. Facinet Sylla, Executive Director for Côte d’Ivoire, Mr. Marcellin Koffi Alle, Senior Advisor and Mr. Abdoulaye Tall, Advisor to the Executive Director; Executive Board Meeting December 4, 2023_

### INTRODUCTION

### INTRODUCTION

### Overview
- Authorities express appreciation to IMF Management and Staff for constructive policy dialogue and productive discussions held in Abidjan and in Marrakesh on the sides of the 2023 Annual meetings.
- IMF chose Abidjan for the curtain raiser event of the 2023 Annual meetings; the Managing Director highlighted the Alassane Ouattara Bridge as symbolizing the transformation of Côte d’Ivoire.
- Political developments: peaceful city, regional, and senatorial elections in September 2023 with the highest participation rate ever recorded in Côte d’Ivoire’s history; observers viewed the elections as inclusive, fair, and free.
- Development strategy: third National Development Plan (NDP 2021-25) as an intermediate step toward Vision 2030; ambition to double per capita income by 2030, reduce extreme poverty by half, and raise life expectancy by 10 years.
- IMF-supported program: a blended Extended Credit Facility/Extended Fund Facility (ECF/EFF) arrangement to mobilize resources for strengthening fiscal and external positions and financing priority infrastructures and social spending.

### Recent developments, program performance, and outlook
- Real GDP growth:
  - Strong post-pandemic recovery continuing in 2023 with real GDP growth expected to remain strong at 7.0 percent, driven by the construction and energy sectors.
  - For the decade preceding the pandemic, policies under successive NDPs helped secure strong and sustained growth of 8 percent per annum on average over the 8 years preceding the pandemic.
  - Growth has been averaging 7 percent since 2021.
- Inflation and external:
  - Inflation projected to ease from 5.2 percent to 4.8 percent year-on-year in 2023, despite inflationary pressures from energy retail price increases and agricultural supply shocks.
  - Current account position anticipated to ameliorate.
- Fiscal and debt indicators:
  - Overall fiscal balance strengthening; fiscal deficit projected to decline to 5.2 percent in 2023.
  - Debt ratios are improving; Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) found Côte d’Ivoire remains at a moderate risk of debt distress.
- Program performance:
  - Authorities report that all program commitments have been met.
  - All end-June 2023 quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets have been observed, as have all end-September structural benchmarks.
  - Key reforms implemented include improvements in tax policy and administration (reducing exemptions and increasing VAT yield), better targeting of subsidies, and reallocating resources toward priority sectors.
- Medium-term outlook and risks:
  - Medium-term growth prospects promising, supported by productivity gains, structural transformation, and exploitation of new oil fields.
  - Inflation expected to return within the regional central bank BCEAO’s 3 percent target due to monetary and fiscal tightening and easing of imported inflation pressures.
  - Downside risks: global financial conditions, geo-political risks, climate events, and subregional political and security instability from the Sahel region.
  - Upside risks: development of the Baleine oil field, and the economic impact of the Africa Cup of Nations starting in January 2024.

### Fiscal policy and debt management (policies for remainder of 2023 and 2024)
- Fiscal consolidation path:
  - Authorities aim to converge towards the regional 3 per cent fiscal deficit target by 2025, representing a significant effort from the 5.2 percent deficit expected in 2023.
  - Measures: mobilize more revenue, improve allocation of spending toward highly valued sectors, and strengthen public financial management.
- Revenue mobilization:
  - Anchor: comprehensive medium-term revenue strategy (MTRS) developed with IMF technical assistance.
  - Objectives: streamline the tax system, broaden the tax base by tapping undertaxed sectors like real-estate, remove tax exemptions, and modernize tax and customs administration.
- Spending priorities and targeting:
  - Increase spending efficiency by targeting high impact capital infrastructure and social projects.
  - Prioritized initiatives: second-generation social program, PS Gouv 2; government program promoting vocational training and youth employment.
  - Reforms to better target subsidies, including increasing petrol product taxes and phasing out crisis-related exceptional policies; continued protection for vulnerable segments, including refugees.
- Public financial management reforms:
  - Consolidate the Treasury Single Account by closing remaining accounts with commercial banks.
  - Broaden and enhance e-procurement usage to enhance transparency and efficiency.
  - Implement reform priorities identified in the green PFM and C-PIMA reports.
- Debt management and sustainability:
  - Authorities noted DSA recommendations; commit to preserving debt sustainability by stepping up domestic revenue mobilization, adhering to prudent borrowing, and strengthening public debt management.
  - Resolve to reverse increases in liquidity pressure indicators such as external debt service ratios following global tightening.
  - Ongoing reforms of the debt management unit, including operationalization of a recent regulatory overhaul.

### Monetary and financial sector policies
- Regional monetary stance:
  - BCEAO gradually raised key policy rates for an overall 100 basis points increase since last year and indicated readiness to tighten further as needed.
- Banking sector soundness:
  - Banking system remains resilient and profitable with a reserves cushion coverage of 120 percent of mandatory reserves.
  - Capital adequacy ratios and other financial soundness indicators are strong.
  - Authorities monitoring the sector to safeguard financial stability amid tightening monetary policy.
- Financial development and public banks:
  - Intensify financial development and inclusion efforts, including reforms of public banks.
  - Implement strategic plans and raise capital to strengthen the balance sheets of Banque de l’Habitat (BHCI) and Banque Populaire (BPCI).
- AML/CFT:
  - Government has taken note of FATF recommendations and a detailed assessment report on AML/CFT.
  - Significant progress since the 2012 mutual evaluation; committed to follow-up actions including appointing supervisors for priority sectors to enhance monitoring.

### Structural reforms
- Accelerate NDP 2021-25 transformative reforms to reach upper-middle-income status by 2030.
- Priorities:
  - Ambitious industrialization policy, deployment of regional growth clusters, and development of value chains in key sectors including agrobusiness poles.
  - Modernize and streamline public administration procedures; prioritize growth-enhancing public infrastructure; foster a dynamic SME ecosystem.
  - Leverage digitalization to facilitate doing business.
- Governance and SOE reforms:
  - Adopt the 2023-2027 National Strategy to Fight Corruption and operationalize the System for the Detection and Prevention of Acts of Corruption and Related Offenses.
  - High Authority for Good Governance enforcing asset declaration obligations with deferrals and administrative sanctions for non-compliance.
  - Enhance SOE efficiency through enforcement of performance contracts and close monitoring of contingent liabilities.

### Climate change and RSF-related reforms
- Authorities committed to accelerating reforms to address climate change and improve resilience, aligned with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and pledges under the Abidjan Legacy Initiative and Paris Accords.
- Interest in an ambitious reform package supported by the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
- Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) finalized in June 2023 highlighted significant climate impacts on commodity markets including cocoa and cotton.
- Green public financial management and climate-related public investment management assessments completed with IMF technical assistance.
- Discussions on RSF-supported reform measures advanced; authorities look forward to the early January 2024 RSF program negotiation mission.

### Conclusion and requests to the Executive Board
- Côte d’Ivoire maintained strong growth and transformation momentum despite successive external shocks.
- High access under the ECF/EFF-supported program is helping the country withstand shocks while implementing reforms.
- First review showed strong performance: prior action met, all quantitative criteria, indicative targets, and structural benchmarks achieved.
- Authorities committed to maintaining program implementation and finalizing RSF discussions in early 2024 to integrate climate-related issues into policymaking and enhance resilience.
- Authorities request Executive Directors’ favorable conclusion of the first reviews of the arrangements under the Extended Fund Facility and the Extended Credit Facility.

*Source: 1civea2023004 - INTRODUCTION*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2023/english/1civea2023004.pdf_