## 1uzbea2023002 - Section 1 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [1uzbea2023002 - Section 1](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2023/english/1uzbea2023002.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2023/english/1uzbea2023002.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2023/english/1uzbea2023002.pdf.json) --- ### Mission overview and context - TA mission on national accounts by CCAMTAC visited Tashkent during February 6–17, 2023. - Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF; completed in February 2023 and published December 2023. - Objectives: - Assist the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (SA) in developing annual supply and use tables (SUT). - Improve non-observed economy (NOE) estimates. - Discuss compilation of financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) in accordance with the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA). ### Major findings and assessments - Progress noted: - Implementation of 2008 SNA and compilation of discrete quarterly GDP. - Three main areas identified for further improvement: - Improvement of data sources for national accounts. - Further improvement of SUTs to compile GDP based on the SUT framework. - Improvement of the NOE estimates. - Data-source quality weaknesses identified: - Household survey weighting linked to lack of a recent population census. - Duplicated data collection across agencies. - Methodology for compiling the industrial production index (IPI). ### Priority recommendations (high level) - Conduct a general population census and adjust weighting methods in household surveys based on its results. - Improve survey planning and data sharing by government agencies to eliminate duplication in data collection. - Improve the methodology for compiling the industrial production index (IPI). - Prepare and conduct sector-specific NOE surveys, with emphasis on household expenditures in sectors where corporate underreporting is likely. ### Table of priority recommendations (as presented) - Target Date: December 2023 — Priority Recommendation: Balance The SUT at current prices of 2021 — Responsible: SA - Target Date: January 2024 — Priority Recommendation: Collect detailed price indices for the compilation of SUT at previous year’s prices. — Responsible: SA - Target Date: March 2024 — Priority Recommendation: Balance the SUT at constant prices of 2020. — Responsible: SA ### Outcome-oriented action plan (selection) - Prepare a press release detailing the new estimates of FISIM and changes compared to the previously published data — April 2023 — Status: Completed - Publish new time series of FISIM on the website — April 2023 — Status: Completed - Conduct logical and arithmetical control of each questionnaire of the survey on intermediate consumption — Target: July 2023 — Status as of June 2023: Ongoing - In consultation with accountants of an enterprise, adjust the questionnaires for logical or arithmetical errors — Target: September 2023 — Status: Ongoing - Prepare the final structure of intermediate consumption for 2020 — Target: October 2023 — Status: Ongoing - Balance the SUT at current prices of 2020 — Target: December 2023 — Status: Ongoing - Collect detailed price indices for the compilation of SUT at previous year’s prices — Target: January 2024 — Status: Ongoing - Balance the SUT at constant prices of 2020 — Target: March 2024 — Status: Ongoing - Conduct sector-specific NOE surveys for hotels, restaurants, transport, healthcare, education, and communication services — Target: 2023-2024 — Status: Ongoing ### A. Supply and Use Tables (SUT) — background and actions - Historical context: - February 2020 TA mission assisted SA in implementing the IMF Excel add-in balancing function “SUTB.” - 2017 SUT were balanced using SUTB during the February 2020 mission. - SUTB requirements: - Inputs: the unbalanced SUT, three sets of accounting constraints (two accounting-type constraints and user-defined explicit constraints), and a set of reliability coefficients. - Reliability coefficients scale: 0 to 100, where 100 represents fully reliable data not subject to adjustments. - Key methodological issue: - Established practice of compiling SUT after dissemination of GDP led to output and intermediate consumption being fixed (reliability coefficients set at 100), constraining balancing adjustments. - Recommended practice: compile and balance SUT before publication of GDP so output and intermediate consumption can be adjusted. - COVID-19 impact and SA actions: - Original actions and target dates from February 2020 mission were revised and extended by more than one year. - SA prioritized implementation of discrete quarterly GDP for 2021, delaying SUT activities. - SA carried out the 2020 survey on detailed structure of intermediate consumption via electronic questionnaires; participation was higher among large enterprises. - Some responding enterprises were not in the statistical business register; mission recommended updating the register to include them. - Processing survey results and mission assistance: - SA initially compiled intermediate consumption structure without enterprise-size weights, biasing results toward large-enterprise cost patterns (example: high share of railway transportation). - Mission actions included adding new enterprises to the business register and assigning weights to large, medium, and small enterprises; similar process applied to NPISH. - These steps reduced supply-use discrepancies, though some discrepancies remained due to incorrect or incomplete questionnaires. - Recommended data-quality controls: - Apply sampling methods when planning surveys. - Conduct logical and arithmetical control of each questionnaire. - In case of discrepancies, consult enterprise accountants for clarification and correction. - Next mission in July 2023 to assist with balancing SUT at current prices and compiling SUT at previous year’s prices. Recommended Actions (SUT) - Conduct logical and arithmetical control of each questionnaire of the survey on intermediate consumption. - In consultation with accountants of an enterprise, adjust the questionnaires for logical or arithmetical errors. - Prepare the final structure of intermediate consumption for 2020. - Balance the SUT at current prices of 2020. - Balance the SUT at current prices of 2021. - Collect detailed price indices for the compilation of SUT at previous year’s prices. ### B. Non-Observed Economy (NOE) - Post-quarterly-GDP implementation, improving NOE estimates is a major SA priority. - Sectors identified as likely having significantly underestimated NOE: - Hotels and restaurants - Education - Health care - Other personal services - Trade, transport, administrative and professional services (identified earlier as sectors with underestimated NOE) - SA plans for NOE improvement: - Conduct sector-specific surveys focused on household expenditures and detailed GDP end-use categories for transportation, hotels and restaurants, health care, and other personal services. - Surveys to clarify household expenditure on these services and gross fixed capital formation involved in these activities. - Adjusted use (from surveys) compared to supply will determine adjusted NOE estimates; resulting NOE ratios may be used for several years but should be updated every few years, preferably conducting sector-specific surveys at least once every five years. - Survey quality requirements: - High-quality questionnaires. - Representative stratified sampling covering all geographical regions. - Next TA mission in July 2023 will assist SA with these tasks. Recommended Action (NOE) - Conduct sector-specific NOE surveys for hotels, restaurants, transport, healthcare, education, and communication services. ### C. Compilation of FISIM in accordance with the 2008 SNA - SA compiled new time series of FISIM in accordance with 2008 SNA standards covering 2017 to 2021. - Selection of SNA reference rate: - SA preferred the weighted average of the interest rates on deposits and loans because: - Government did not issue long-term bonds. - Frequency of interbank deposits was not sufficient. - Distribution methodology: - FISIM divided according to types of use and distributed for intermediate consumption by economic activities. - FISIM split into intermediate consumption and final consumption categories including imports and exports. - FISIM for household consumption compiled from data on household deposits and mortgage loans. - FISIM for non-financial corporations distributed by the structure of interest paid from the regular monthly survey on non-financial corporations. - For other institutional sectors, the structure of gross value added is used to distribute FISIM among economic activities. - Mission conclusion: compilation files reviewed and results are ready for publication. ### Additional recommended actions and officials met (Section 2) - Recommended Actions: - Prepare a press release detailing the new estimates of FISIM and changes compared to the previously published data. - Publish new time series of FISIM on the website. - Officials met during the mission (selection): - Mr. Bokhodir Begalov, Director, SA - Mr. Zokhidjan Ziyayev, Deputy Director of SA - Mr. Abrorali Mamadjanov, Head of Macroeconomic Indicators and National Accounts Department (NAD), SA - Mr. Sardor Juraev, Head of the Industrial Statistics Department, SA - Mr. Mukhtor Umarov, Head of the Price Statistics Department, SA - Mr. Muzaffar Jamolov, Head of the Construction and Investment Department, SA - Ms. Zukhra Mamadnova, Head of the Input-Output Statistics Division, NAD, SA - Mr. Umarjon Obidov, Head of the Current Accounts Division, NAD, SA - Mr. Rakhmatjon Urusbayev, Head of the Satellite Accounts Division, NAD, SA - Mr. Farkhod Ganiev, Deputy Head of the Satellite Accounts Division, NAD, SA - Ms. Tatyana Kuksina, Chief Specialist, NAD, SA - Ms. Zioda Kamilova, Chief Specialist, NAD, SA - Mr. Jakhongir Mekhmonov, Chief Specialist, NAD, SA *IMF Country Report No. 23/446 — Technical Assistance Report—National Accounts Statistics Mission (Republic of Uzbekistan), February 6–17, 2023; December 2023.* ### Section 1 ### 1uzbea2023002 - Section 1 ### Mission overview and context - TA mission on national accounts by CCAMTAC visited Tashkent during February 6–17, 2023. - Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF; completed in February 2023 and published December 2023. - Objectives: - Assist the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (SA) in developing annual supply and use tables (SUT). - Improve non-observed economy (NOE) estimates. - Discuss compilation of financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) in accordance with the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA). ### Major findings and assessments - Progress noted: - Implementation of 2008 SNA and compilation of discrete quarterly GDP. - Three main areas identified for further improvement: - Improvement of data sources for national accounts. - Further improvement of SUTs to compile GDP based on the SUT framework. - Improvement of the NOE estimates. - Data-source quality is critical; specific weaknesses include household survey weighting (linked to lack of a recent population census), duplicated data collection across agencies, and the methodology for compiling the industrial production index (IPI). ### Priority recommendations (high level) - Conduct a general population census and adjust weighting methods in household surveys based on its results. - Improve survey planning and data sharing by government agencies to eliminate duplication in data collection. - Improve the methodology for compiling the industrial production index (IPI). - Prepare and conduct sector-specific NOE surveys, with emphasis on household expenditures in sectors where corporate underreporting is likely. ### Table of priority recommendations (as presented) - Target Date: December 2023 — Priority Recommendation: Balance The SUT at current prices of 2021 — Responsible: SA - Target Date: January 2024 — Priority Recommendation: Collect detailed price indices for the compilation of SUT at previous year’s prices. — Responsible: SA - Target Date: March 2024 — Priority Recommendation: Balance the SUT at constant prices of 2020. — Responsible: SA *Outcome-oriented action plan (selection from Detailed Technical Assessment and Recommendations)* - Prepare a press release detailing the new estimates of FISIM and changes compared to the previously published data — April 2023 — Status: Completed - Publish new time series of FISIM on the website — April 2023 — Status: Completed - Conduct logical and arithmetical control of each questionnaire of the survey on intermediate consumption — Target: July 2023 — Status as of June 2023: Ongoing - In consultation with accountants of an enterprise, adjust the questionnaires for logical or arithmetical errors — Target: September 2023 — Status: Ongoing - Prepare the final structure of intermediate consumption for 2020 — Target: October 2023 — Status: Ongoing - Balance the SUT at current prices of 2020 — Target: December 2023 — Status: Ongoing - Collect detailed price indices for the compilation of SUT at previous year’s prices — Target: January 2024 — Status: Ongoing - Balance the SUT at constant prices of 2020 — Target: March 2024 — Status: Ongoing - Conduct sector-specific NOE surveys for hotels, restaurants, transport, healthcare, education, and communication services — Target: 2023-2024 — Status: Ongoing ### A. Supply and Use Tables (SUT) — background and actions - Historical context: - February 2020 TA mission assisted SA in implementing the IMF Excel add-in balancing function “SUTB.” - 2017 SUT were balanced using SUTB during the February 2020 mission. - SUTB requirements: - Inputs: the unbalanced SUT, three sets of accounting constraints (two accounting-type constraints and user-defined explicit constraints), and a set of reliability coefficients. - Reliability coefficients scale: 0 to 100, where 100 represents fully reliable data not subject to adjustments. - Key methodological issue: - Established practice of compiling SUT after dissemination of GDP led to output and intermediate consumption being fixed (reliability coefficients set at 100), constraining balancing adjustments. - Recommended practice: compile and balance SUT before publication of GDP so output and intermediate consumption can be adjusted. - COVID-19 impact: - Original actions and target dates from February 2020 mission were revised and extended by more than one year. - SA prioritized implementation of discrete quarterly GDP for 2021, delaying SUT activities. - SA carried out the 2020 survey on detailed structure of intermediate consumption via electronic questionnaires; participation was higher among large enterprises. - Some responding enterprises were not in the statistical business register; mission recommended updating the register to include them. - Processing survey results: - SA initially compiled intermediate consumption structure without enterprise-size weights, biasing toward large-enterprise cost patterns (e.g., high share of railway transportation). - Mission actions: - Added new enterprises to the business register. - Assigned weights to large, medium, and small enterprises; applied similar process to NPISH. - Reduced supply-use discrepancies, though some remained due to incorrect or incomplete questionnaires. - Recommended data-quality controls: - Apply sampling methods when planning surveys. - Conduct logical and arithmetical control of each questionnaire. - In case of discrepancies, consult enterprise accountants for clarification and correction. - Next mission in July 2023 to assist with balancing SUT at current prices and compiling SUT at previous year’s prices. Recommended Actions (SUT): - Conduct logical and arithmetical control of each questionnaire of the survey on intermediate consumption. - In consultation with accountants of an enterprise, adjust the questionnaires for logical or arithmetical errors. - Prepare the final structure of intermediate consumption for 2020. - Balance the SUT at current prices of 2020. - Balance the SUT at current prices of 2021. - Collect detailed price indices for the compilation of SUT at previous year’s prices. ### B. Non-Observed Economy (NOE) - Post-quarterly-GDP implementation, improving NOE estimates is a major SA priority. - Sectors identified as likely having significantly underestimated NOE: - Hotels and restaurants - Education - Health care - Other personal services - Trade, transport, administrative and professional services (identified earlier as sectors with underestimated NOE) - SA plans: - Conduct sector-specific surveys focused on household expenditures and detailed GDP end-use categories for transportation, hotels and restaurants, health care, and other personal services. - Surveys to clarify household expenditure on these services and gross fixed capital formation involved in these activities. - Adjusted use (from surveys) compared to supply will determine adjusted NOE estimates; resulting NOE ratios may be used for several years but should be updated every few years, preferably conducting sector-specific surveys at least once every five years. - Survey quality requirements: - High-quality questionnaires. - Representative stratified sampling covering all geographical regions. - Next TA mission in July 2023 will assist SA with these tasks. Recommended Action (NOE): - Conduct sector-specific NOE surveys for hotels, restaurants, transport, healthcare, education, and communication services. ### C. Compilation of FISIM in accordance with the 2008 SNA - SA compiled new time series of FISIM in accordance with 2008 SNA standards covering 2017 to 2021. - Selection of SNA reference rate: - SA preferred the weighted average of the interest rates on deposits and loans because: - Government did not issue long-term bonds. - Frequency of interbank deposits was not sufficient. - Distribution methodology: - FISIM divided according to types of use and distributed for intermediate consumption by economic activities. - FISIM split into intermediate consumption and final consumption categories including imports and exports. - FISIM for household consumption compiled from data on household deposits and mortgage loans. - FISIM for non-financial corporations distributed by the structure of interest paid from the regular monthly survey on non-financial corporations. - For other institutional sectors, the structure of gross value added is used to distribute FISIM among economic activities. - Mission conclusion: compilation files reviewed and results are ready for publication. *IMF Country Report No. 23/446 — Technical Assistance Report—National Accounts Statistics Mission (Republic of Uzbekistan), February 6–17, 2023; December 2023.* ### Section 2 ### Section 2 ### Recommended Actions - Prepare a press release detailing the new estimates of FISIM and changes compared to the previously published data. - Publish new time series of FISIM on the website. ### Officials Met During the Mission - Mr. Bokhodir Begalov, Director, SA - Mr. Zokhidjan Ziyayev, Deputy Director of SA - Mr. Abrorali Mamadjanov, Head of Macroeconomic Indicators and National Accounts Department (NAD), SA - Mr. Sardor Juraev, Head of the Industrial Statistics Department, SA - Mr. Mukhtor Umarov, Head of the Price Statistics Department, SA - Mr. Muzaffar Jamolov, Head of the Construction and Investment Department, SA - Ms. Zukhra Mamadnova, Head of the Input-Output Statistics Division, NAD, SA - Mr. Umarjon Obidov, Head of the Current Accounts Division, NAD, SA - Mr. Rakhmatjon Urusbayev, Head of the Satellite Accounts Division, NAD, SA - Mr. Farkhod Ganiev, Deputy Head of the Satellite Accounts Division, NAD, SA - Ms. Tatyana Kuksina, Chief Specialist, NAD, SA - Ms. Zioda Kamilova, Chief Specialist, NAD, SA - Mr. Jakhongir Mekhmonov, Chief Specialist, NAD, SA *Source: 1uzbea2023002 - Section 2* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2023/english/1uzbea2023002.pdf_