## ZIMBABWE — Report on the National Accounts Mission (October 10–20, 2023) ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [ZIMBABWE — Report on the National Accounts Mission (October 10–20, 2023)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2023/english/1zweea2023003.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2023/english/1zweea2023003.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2023/english/1zweea2023003.pdf.json) --- ### Summary of Mission Outcomes and Priority Recommendations - A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted during October 2023 by the IMF’s Regional Technical Assistance Center for Southern Africa (AFS) to support the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT) in the production of national accounts statistics for macroeconomic policy making. - The mission reviewed recently produced annual GDP by the production approach (GDP(P)) for the year 2022. ZIMSTAT mainly used value-added tax (VAT) data from the Zimbabwe Revenue Authority (ZIMRA), together with government accounts, finance data from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ), and various volume indicators. - ZIMSTAT made considerable progress cleaning VAT turnover data. Data issues identified during a March 2023 mission (extreme growths causing residual inflation once deflated) were addressed through close work with ZIMRA; the 2022 annual estimates were finalized during the mission with dissemination planned for November 2023. - Rebasing plans were revised: the new base year will be 2025 (replacing an earlier plan for 2023). The National Economic Census (NEC) will be implemented in three phases (mapping, listing, and data collection). The data collection phase will be a sample survey (the NEC name retained), with a census for large/medium businesses and a sample for small businesses subject to available resources. - Quarterly estimates covering 2019 quarter 1 to 2023 quarter 2 were reviewed. Remaining VAT data entry errors affecting quarterly manufacturing estimates were identified and to be corrected. A specific anomaly in 2021 quarter 2 (quarterly declines across multiple industries not part of seasonal patterns) requires investigation with ZIMRA. Discontinuities in labour market data between 2019 quarter 4 and 2020 quarter 1 were addressed via overlapping data and backcasting. - Priority recommendations and target dates (from mission): - November 2023: Disseminate estimates of annual GDP for 2022. (Responsible: ZIMSTAT) - December 2023: Complete redevelopment of plans and associated timeframes for the rebasing of the national accounts. (Responsible: ZIMSTAT) - December 2023: Resolve remaining issues in the VAT turnover data affecting the quarterly GDP estimates. (Responsible: ZIMSTAT) - December 2024: Complete phase 1 of the National Economic Census and begin phase 2. (Responsible: ZIMSTAT) ### Section I — Annual GDP Estimates (findings and recommendations) Findings - VAT turnover data from ZIMRA were used for current price (CP) output data in many industries, including the majority of manufacturing, wholesale and retail, much of transport, and the services industries. - Constant price (KP) series were calculated using a mixture of deflation (using components of the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) or the Producer Prices Index (PPI)) and volume indicators. - Initial inconsistencies arose from NADABAS backdata not matching published data; correcting this made growth rates plausible. - Significant cleaning of VAT turnover data resolved prior data entry issues and residual inflation, improving CP and KP estimates. - Methodological improvements included deflating manufacturing subsectors using relevant PPI components (rather than a broad PPI), producing conceptually appropriate results. - Where deflators are not available (mainly some services components), labour market data have been used more widely (still limited to a number of industries) to produce volume indicators. - Public administration and defense KP estimates switched from deflation to a volume indicator (numbers of employees) during the mission. - Implied deflators by industry reviewed: series deflated using CPI/PPI components show expected implied deflators; series using earnings as deflators show much lower growth, consistent with earnings growth lagging inflation. Recommendations - ZIMSTAT to disseminate the 2022 annual estimates. (Target: November 2023) ### Section II — Rebasing of GDP and Supply and Use Tables (findings and recommendations) Findings - The last full rebase used 2012 as the base year; limited in-house experience led to earlier overly optimistic plans for a rebase to 2023. - Rebase plans reworked: new base year is 2025. Detailed NEC plans were developed and appear realistic; other aspects of the rebase still require detailed plans (product and industry classifications, IT system specification). - NEC three-phase timetable: - Phase 1 (business mapping): November 2023 to April 2024. - Phase 2 (business listing to update business register and produce sampling frame): May to November 2024. - Phase 3 (data collection and processing): planned to be completed by November 2026 (noting work may take longer). - Data collection approach changed from a full census to a mixed approach: census for large/medium businesses and a sample for small businesses (subject to resources). ZIMSTAT to request TA for questionnaire design. - For small businesses, the data collection instrument will be a weekly diary planned for twelve months; mission recommended considering shortening to reduce cost and respondent fatigue. - ZIMSTAT has now published a revisions policy (requested in March 2023). Recommendations - ZIMSTAT to develop plans for other aspects of the rebase. (Target: December 2023) - ZIMSTAT to carry out the mapping process by April 2024. - ZIMSTAT to complete the listing by end 2024. - ZIMSTAT to request TA for questionnaire design. - ZIMSTAT to develop product and industry classifications to be used within the supply and use tables (SUT). - ZIMSTAT to develop and test the IT system for processing the economic census as a priority. ### Section III — Quarterly GDP Estimates (findings and recommendations) Findings - Quarterly CP and KP GDP estimates for 2019 quarter 1 to 2023 quarter 2 use data sources consistent with the annual estimates. - Some cleaned VAT data had not fed through, producing unusual movements in manufacturing; these are expected to be straightforward to resolve. - Noted issue: turnover declines in 2021 quarter 2 across numerous industries (several manufacturing subsectors, arts and entertainment, transport) that are not part of seasonal patterns and are often the only falls in the series; ZIMSTAT to investigate with ZIMRA. - Labour market indicator discontinuities between 2019 quarter 4 and 2020 quarter 1 were due to changes in data collection; these were addressed using overlapping data and backcasting. Recommendations - ZIMSTAT to correct the uncleaned turnover data. (Target: December 2023) - ZIMSTAT to investigate the 2021 quarter 2 data issue. ### Section IV — Detailed Technical Assessment and Results-Based Framework (selected milestones and status) Key target milestones and progress as of October 2023 - Resolve issues with VAT data in advance of 2022 annual publication. Target Completion Date: August 2023. Progress: Complete. - Estimate annual 2022 GDP and revise 2019–2021 estimates in light of updated VAT data. Target Completion Date: September 2023. Progress: Estimates completed; dissemination due in November 2023. - Develop plan for rebasing the national accounts. Target Completion Date: December 2023. Progress: NEC planned; remainder outstanding. - Undertake Household Budget Survey (HBS) for 2023/24. Target Completion Date: September 2024. Progress: Now scheduled for data collection to be completed by November 2024. - Carry out business mapping exercise. Target Completion Date: April 2024. Progress: Mappers to be trained. - Carry out business listing exercise. Target Completion Date: December 2024. - Carry out NEC. Target Completion Date: November 2026. - Carry out rebase of national accounts, with 2023 as new base year. Target Completion Date: December 2028. Progress: Outstanding. Decision made to change base year to 2025. - Produce supply and use tables alongside rebase. Target Completion Date: December 2028. Progress: Outstanding. ### Officials met - A list of ZIMSTAT officials and roles participated in the mission (names and affiliations recorded by the mission). *Source: IMF Country Report No. 23/427 — Technical Assistance Report: ZIMBABWE — Report on the National Accounts Mission (October 10–20, 2023).* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2023/english/1zweea2023003.pdf_