## 1. Understanding Inflation in Antigua and Barbuda

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### Context and historical vulnerability
- Antigua and Barbuda hit by five Category 4-5 hurricanes since 1990 and strongly affected by global shocks (e.g., 9/11, the global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic), producing sharp contractions and protracted recoveries over the past 30 years.
- Economy highly dependent on tourism and foreign direct investment inflows, limiting opportunities to diversify away from tourism and to smooth large shocks through countercyclical policies.
- Recovery from the global financial crisis was particularly weak; coupled with hurricanes and the COVID-19 pandemic, this resulted in almost no real GDP growth since 2007.

### Recent macroeconomic developments
- Growth and tourism:
  - Real GDP growth: 8.5 percent in 2022 and 5.7 percent in 2023.
  - Number of stayover tourists reached 97 percent of pre-pandemic levels for January–August 2023; arrivals from the U.S. surpassed previous levels.
  - Cruise ship visitor recovery slower; yacht visitors fully recovered.
  - Real GDP expected to reach its pre-pandemic level in 2023.
- Employment (social security contribution-based estimates, percent change 2019→2022):
  - Public sector: 14,141 → 14,237 (0.7)
  - Private sector: 30,809 → 30,436 (-1.2)
  - Self-employed: 2,367 → 1,867 (-21.1)
  - Male: 21,714 → 21,023 (-3.2)
  - Female: 25,603 → 25,517 (-0.3)
  - Age 16-19: 1,048 → 776 (-26.0)
  - Age 20-29: 11,092 → 11,319 (2.0)
  - Total employed: 47,317 → 46,540 (-1.6)
- Inflation:
  - Headline inflation: 9.2 percent at end-2022 → 6.6 percent by August 2023.
  - Core inflation has been steadily declining.
  - Global commodity price decline in 2023 contributed to the fall in headline inflation.

### Inflation decomposition and drivers (Box 1)
- Method:
  - Dynamic factor model estimated over December 2001–July 2023 for 49 EMDEs decomposes inflation into global, regional, and country-specific factors.
- Key findings:
  - Antigua and Barbuda’s recent inflation almost entirely accounted for by global factors.
  - An “EMDE” global factor remained elevated despite falling global food and energy prices.
  - Global factor accounts for 87 percent of Antigua and Barbuda’s inflation between January 2022 and June 2023.
  - Antigua and Barbuda’s loading on the global factor: 0.63.
  - Caribbean regional factor had modest rise during 2022–23 but Antigua and Barbuda’s loading on it is 0.02 (negligible impact).
  - Domestic factor had limited contribution during the pandemic but increased in recent months relative to the dissipating global factor.
- Interpretation:
  - Persistent inflationary forces synchronized across EMDEs via common global shocks; Antigua and Barbuda’s inflation closely traces the global factor.
- Additional insights:
  - Measures of core inflation and services inflation point to broad-based but moderating price pressures across the CPI basket.

### Fiscal and external context related to inflation
- Fiscal outcomes and debt:
  - Primary deficit: fell to 1.7 percent of GDP in 2022 (from 2.3 percent of GDP in 2021).
  - Public debt: rose nominally to 87 percent of GDP by end-2022 (from 95 percent at end-2021) due to rapid nominal GDP rise.
  - Gross financing needs around 14 percent of GDP in 2022.
  - Stock of outstanding arrears: 18 percent of GDP at end-2022.
- External sector:
  - Current account deficit widened to an estimated 16.2 percent of GDP in 2022.
  - EBA-Lite model: current account gap at -3.3 percent of GDP in 2022.
  - Real effective exchange rate overvalued by 7.4 percent in 2022.
  - Reserves: above 3 months of prospective imports.

### Financial sector and monetary context
- Banking sector indicators:
  - Non-performing loans (NPLs) of commercial banks: 6.9 percent as of 2023Q2 (prudential requirement: 5 percent).
  - Loan loss provisioning: 78 percent.
  - Credit unions: 13 percent of total credit; NPL ratio stable at 7 percent.
  - ECCB digital currency (DCash): awareness up but usage low.
- ECCB safeguards:
  - Progress toward addressing 2021 safeguards recommendations; outstanding items include legal reforms to strengthen operational autonomy, enhanced project governance for DCash, and strengthening risk management.

### Outlook and risks for inflation
- Macro projections:
  - Growth projected to converge to long-term average of around 3 percent.
  - Global food and fuel prices expected to keep inflation at around 4 percent in 2023, with inflation dissipating in 2024.
  - Public debt projected to fall to around 69 percent of GDP by 2028 under staff baseline.
  - Gross financing needs forecast to remain around 10 percent of GDP over the medium term.
- Risks affecting inflation and macro stability:
  - Upside inflation risk from higher global commodity prices eroding household incomes.
  - Slower-than-expected growth in trading partners could weaken tourism demand.
  - Tighter global financial conditions could restrict access to international capital markets.
  - Strengthening of the U.S. dollar could weaken competitiveness relative to European and Canadian tourists.
  - More restrictive fiscal financing could worsen debt dynamics and increase arrears.
  - Climate change risks: more frequent/severe droughts and hurricanes.
  - Upside scenario: stronger-than-expected FDI inflows or stronger U.S. demand could boost construction and tourism.

### Policy implications and inflation-sensitive priorities
- Fiscal measures and buffers:
  - Fiscal consolidation and stronger buffers needed to reduce vulnerability to shocks that can propagate into inflation.
  - Fiscal measures in staff baseline expected to generate a small primary surplus over the medium term and bring public debt down (to 69 percent of GDP by 2028 and to 61 percent by 2035 under baseline assumptions).
  - Additional fiscal measures of around 1 percent of GDP (beyond baseline) advised to bring debt safely below medium-term targets, reduce gross financing needs, and clear arrears.
- Monitoring and resilience-building:
  - Continued monitoring of global commodity price developments and pass-through to domestic prices.
  - Strengthen resilience to external shocks through fiscal buffers and improved access to diverse financing.
  - Enhance tax administration and revenue measures to reduce fiscal reliance on volatile sources.

### Revenue policy and ABST (relevant to inflation dynamics)
- ABST structure:
  - Value-added tax with standard rate of 15 percent and reduced rate of 14 percent for short-term accommodation; extensive zero-rated/exempt list.
  - Forgone revenues from zero-rated/exempt items estimated at 2.8 percent of GDP (largest items: foodstuffs 0.7 percent, real estate 0.4 percent, passenger transport 0.3 percent, fuels 0.3 percent, electricity 0.2 percent).
  - ABST compliance gap estimated at 3.8 percent of GDP.
- Revenue-raising options (implications for fiscal buffers and price pressures):
  - Broadening ABST base by reducing exemptions/zero-rating (while considering social objectives).
  - Apply standard rate of 15 percent to short-term accommodation (currently 14 percent) and extend ABST to online purchases.
  - Increase standard ABST rate (e.g., to 17 percent) if other measures underperform.
  - Introduce excise taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar.
  - Improve property tax collection and valuation updates.
  - Operational improvements: single window at customs, e-filing/e-payment/e-registration, strengthened auditing capacity.
- Quantified ABST effects:
  - Base broadening across fuels, electricity, first sale of newly constructed residential accommodation, and passenger air transport could provide around 1 percent of GDP in additional revenue.
  - Increasing ABST rate to 17 percent, including on short-term accommodation, would increase revenues by 0.7-0.8 percent of GDP.
  - Combining a 17 percent rate with base broadening would yield revenues close to 2 percent of GDP.
- Compliance scenarios modeled:
  - Estimated compliance scenario: for every percentage point increase in the standard rate, ABST compliance on those items affected weakens by 4.1 percent.
  - Current compliance scenario: compliance remains unchanged if the standard rate changes.
  - Improved compliance scenario: for every percentage point increase in the standard rate, compliance increases by 5 or 10 percent.

*Source: 1atgea2024001 - 1. Understanding Inflation in Antigua and Barbuda (IMF PDF chapter).*

### 1. Understanding Inflation in Antigua and Barbuda _______________________________________________ 5

### 1. Understanding Inflation in Antigua and Barbuda

### Context and historical vulnerability
- Antigua and Barbuda has been hit by five Category 4-5 hurricanes since 1990 and is strongly affected by global shocks (e.g., 9/11, the global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic), leading to sharp contractions and protracted recoveries over the past 30 years.
- The economy is highly dependent on tourism and foreign direct investment inflows, limiting opportunities to diversify away from tourism and to smooth large shocks through countercyclical policies.
- The recovery from the global financial crisis was particularly weak and, coupled with hurricanes and the COVID-19 pandemic, resulted in almost no real GDP growth since 2007.

### Recent macroeconomic developments
- Growth and tourism:
  - Real GDP growth: 8.5 percent in 2022 and 5.7 percent in 2023.
  - Number of stayover tourists reached 97 percent of pre-pandemic levels for January–August 2023; arrivals from the U.S. surpassed previous levels.
  - Cruise ship visitor recovery has been slower; yacht visitors have fully recovered.
  - Real GDP is expected to reach its pre-pandemic level in 2023.
- Employment (social security contribution-based estimates, percent change 2019→2022):
  - Public sector: 14,141 → 14,237 (0.7)
  - Private sector: 30,809 → 30,436 (-1.2)
  - Self-employed: 2,367 → 1,867 (-21.1)
  - Male: 21,714 → 21,023 (-3.2)
  - Female: 25,603 → 25,517 (-0.3)
  - Age 16-19: 1,048 → 776 (-26.0)
  - Age 20-29: 11,092 → 11,319 (2.0)
  - Total employed: 47,317 → 46,540 (-1.6)
- Inflation:
  - Headline inflation: 9.2 percent at end-2022 → 6.6 percent by August 2023.
  - Core inflation has been steadily declining.
  - Global commodity price decline in 2023 contributed to the fall in headline inflation.

### Box 1 — Inflation decomposition and drivers
- Approach:
  - A dynamic factor model estimated over December 2001–July 2023 for 49 EMDEs across Asia, Caribbean, Europe, and Latin America decomposes inflation into global, regional, and country-specific factors.
- Key findings:
  - Antigua and Barbuda’s recent inflation is almost entirely accounted for by global factors.
  - The analysis identifies an “EMDE” global factor that remained elevated despite falling global food and energy prices.
  - Antigua and Barbuda’s inflation is estimated to account for 87 percent of its inflation between January 2022 and June 2023 due to the global factor.
  - Antigua and Barbuda’s loading on the global factor is 0.63 (consistent with a high degree of trade openness).
  - The Caribbean regional factor had a modest rise during 2022–23 but Antigua and Barbuda’s loading on it is small (0.02), making its impact negligible.
  - The domestic factor had limited contribution during the pandemic but has increased in recent months relative to the dissipating global factor.
- Interpretation:
  - Persistent inflationary forces have been synchronized across EMDEs due to common global shocks, and Antigua and Barbuda’s inflation traces this global factor closely.
- Additional measure insights:
  - Measures of core inflation and services inflation point to broad-based but moderating price pressures across the CPI basket, observed across goods and services.

### Fiscal and external context related to inflation
- Fiscal outcomes and debt:
  - Primary deficit fell to 1.7 percent of GDP in 2022 (from 2.3 percent of GDP in 2021).
  - Rapid nominal GDP rise brought public debt to 87 percent of GDP by end-2022 (from 95 percent at end-2021).
  - Gross financing needs were around 14 percent of GDP in 2022.
  - Stock of outstanding arrears remained large (stock of arrears stood at 18 percent of GDP at end-2022).
- External sector:
  - Current account deficit widened to an estimated 16.2 percent of GDP in 2022.
  - EBA-Lite model: current account gap at -3.3 percent of GDP in 2022.
  - Real effective exchange rate was overvalued by 7.4 percent in 2022.
  - Reserves are above 3 months of prospective imports.

### Financial sector and monetary context
- Banking sector indicators (selected):
  - Non-performing loans (NPLs) of commercial banks: 6.9 percent as of 2023Q2 (prudential requirement: 5 percent).
  - Loan loss provisioning: 78 percent.
  - Credit unions: make up 13 percent of total credit; NPL ratio stable at 7 percent.
  - ECCB digital currency (DCash) awareness up but usage low.
- ECCB safeguards:
  - Progress toward addressing 2021 safeguards recommendations, outstanding items include legal reforms to strengthen operational autonomy, enhanced project governance for DCash, and strengthening risk management.

### Outlook and risks for inflation
- Macro projections:
  - Growth projected to converge to a long-term average of around 3 percent.
  - Global food and fuel prices expected to keep inflation at around 4 percent in 2023, with inflation dissipating in 2024.
  - Public debt projected to fall to around 69 percent of GDP by 2028 under staff baseline.
  - Gross financing needs forecast to remain around 10 percent of GDP over the medium term.
- Risks affecting inflation and macro stability (Annex II highlights):
  - Upside inflation risk from higher global commodity prices eroding household incomes.
  - Slower-than-expected growth in trading partners could weaken tourism demand.
  - Tighter global financial conditions could restrict access to international capital markets.
  - Strengthening of the U.S. dollar could weaken competitiveness relative to European and Canadian tourists.
  - More restrictive fiscal financing conditions could worsen debt dynamics and increase arrears.
  - Climate change risks: more frequent/severe droughts and hurricanes.
  - Upside: stronger-than-expected FDI inflows or stronger U.S. demand could boost construction and tourism.

### Implications for policy (inflation-sensitive priorities)
- Fiscal measures and buffers:
  - Fiscal consolidation and stronger buffers are needed to reduce vulnerability to shocks that can propagate into inflation.
  - Fiscal measures incorporated in the staff baseline are expected to generate a small primary surplus over the medium term and bring public debt down (to 69 percent of GDP by 2028 and to 61 percent by 2035 under baseline assumptions).
  - Additional fiscal measures of around 1 percent of GDP (beyond baseline) are advised to bring debt safely below medium-term targets, reduce gross financing needs, and clear arrears.
- Areas to monitor and strengthen to mitigate inflation persistence:
  - Continued monitoring of global commodity price developments and pass-through to domestic prices.
  - Strengthening resilience to external shocks through fiscal buffers and improved access to diverse financing.
  - Enhancing tax administration and revenue measures to reduce fiscal reliance on volatile sources.

### Related fiscal policy focus — ABST and revenue mobilization (relevant to inflation dynamics)
- ABST structure and weaknesses:
  - ABST is a value-added tax with a standard rate of 15 percent and a reduced rate of 14 percent for short-term accommodation; extensive zero-rated/exempt list.
  - Forgone revenues from zero-rated/exempt items estimated at 2.8 percent of GDP (largest: foodstuffs 0.7 percent, real estate 0.4 percent, passenger transport 0.3 percent, fuels 0.3 percent, electricity 0.2 percent).
  - ABST compliance gap estimated at 3.8 percent of GDP.
- Revenue-raising options (implications for fiscal buffers and pressure on prices):
  - Broadening the ABST base by reducing exemptions/zero-rating (while considering social objectives).
  - Applying the standard rate of 15 percent to short-term accommodation (currently 14 percent) and extending ABST to online purchases.
  - Increasing the standard ABST rate (e.g., to 17 percent) if other measures underperform.
  - Introducing excise taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar.
  - Improving property tax collection and valuation updates.
  - Operational and administrative improvements: single window at customs, e-filing/e-payment/e-registration, and strengthened auditing capacity.
- Quantified ABST effects:
  - Base broadening across fuels, electricity, first sale of newly constructed residential accommodation, and passenger air transport could provide around 1 percent of GDP in additional revenue.
  - Increasing the ABST rate to 17 percent, including on short-term accommodation, would increase revenues by 0.7-0.8 percent of GDP.
  - Combining a 17 percent rate with base broadening would yield revenues close to 2 percent of GDP.
- Compliance dynamics modeled:
  - Estimated compliance scenario: for every percentage point increase in the standard rate, ABST compliance on those items affected weakens by 4.1 percent.
  - Current compliance scenario: compliance remains unchanged if the standard rate changes.
  - Improved compliance scenario: for every percentage point increase in the standard rate, compliance increases by 5 or 10 percent.

*Source: 1atgea2024001 - 1. Understanding Inflation in Antigua and Barbuda (IMF PDF chapter).*

### 15. Better cash and debt management would be essential to lessen cashflow pressures and

### 15. Better cash and debt management would be essential to lessen cashflow pressures and

### Cash and debt management: findings and priorities
- Focus of a sound cash and debt management strategy:
  - Lengthening the maturity of debt to mitigate rollover risk.
  - Clearing outstanding debt arrears to external creditors and domestic suppliers, and avoiding new arrears.
  - Defining a strategy to increase access to climate financing and insurance against natural disasters.
- Technical assistance scheduled: recording and reconciliation of debt—expected to be valuable.
- Need for contingency planning for adverse scenarios where availability of financing falls short of budgetary needs.
- Authorities’ views: concurred that vulnerability from large gross financing needs and rollover risks should be reduced; noted decline in debt as a share of GDP but lack of access to international capital markets and concessional financing is creating cashflow pressures; agreed on need to extend maturity profile of debt but are concerned about higher interest rates with longer-term financing.

### Social safety net: findings and recommendations
- Landscape:
  - Numerous social assistance programs administered in an uncoordinated way by various public entities.
  - The Financial Assistance Program provides monthly stipends of EC$216.67 for adults, EC$162.50 for children and EC$238.33 for visually impaired persons.
  - Income per capita in Antigua and Barbuda stood at EC$4,078 per month in 2022.
  - World Bank upper-middle-income poverty line corresponds to around EC$555 per month.
  - Beneficiaries of the Financial Assistance Program are selected by the Social Protection Board with no established threshold on income.
- Key recommendations:
  - Consolidate programs to improve efficiency and reduce administrative costs.
  - Establish a centralized beneficiary database to track support, identify gaps, and avoid duplication.
    - Note: UNICEF is working with the authorities to establish a central beneficiary registry for all social programs, but progress has been slow.
  - Move from generalized subsidies (e.g., broad-based fuel price subsidies) toward targeted programs with benefits periodically recalibrated to reflect cost of living changes.
  - Digitalize systems to facilitate targeting and minimize fraud.
  - Consider coordination of social assistance with social insurance and active labor market policies; use social assistance to help during unemployment given absence of unemployment insurance.
- Authorities’ views: broadly agreed consolidation would reduce cost and improve efficiency; acknowledged slow progress on centralized beneficiary database; do not plan an automatic fuel pricing mechanism; agreed more efforts needed to enhance targeting.

### Fiscal institutions and transparency
- Findings and recommendations:
  - Enshrine fiscal targets and policies from the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy (MTFS) and Fiscal Resilience Guidelines (FRG) in legislation to enhance discipline and enforceability and build political consensus.
  - Expedite establishment of the Fiscal Responsibility Oversight Committee and task it with assessing government fiscal strategy.
  - Amend the Finance Administration Act and the Customs Act to codify planned restraint on discretionary tax exemptions; align statutory exemptions with the Antigua and Barbuda Investment Authority Act with monitoring by the Antigua and Barbuda Investment Authority.
  - Address shortcomings identified in the Global Forum’s 2023 Peer Review on transparency and exchange of information for tax purposes, including:
    - Provide additional guidance to reporting entities on identifying beneficial owners of companies.
    - Extend beneficial ownership obligations to other legal persons and arrangements (such as partnerships and trusts).
    - Ensure a comprehensive supervisory program to monitor compliance with record-keeping obligations.
    - Fully use access powers to seek information, including from third parties, on legal ownership and banking information.
    - Monitor functioning of the rationalized Exchange of Information Unit and revise its Exchange of Information (EOI) manual to provide appropriate and comprehensive guidance.
  - These measures aim to enhance AML/CFT framework and tax transparency and assist exit from the EU’s listing of non-cooperative jurisdictions for tax purposes.
- Authorities’ views:
  - Broadly agreed with recommended fiscal measures; emphasized efforts to reduce discretionary tax exemptions and exploring limiting statutory exemptions to construction phase of projects.
  - Agreed ABST base should be broadened while minimizing adverse impacts on the vulnerable; depending on yields and HS 2022 implementation, may consider increasing the ABST standard rate.
  - No plans for a public sector employment census or skills database, but committed to containing the public sector wage bill.
  - Updating MTFS with Cabinet discussion planned for the Fall; operationalizing the Fiscal Resilience Oversight Committee is ongoing; Fiscal Resilience Guidelines approved by Cabinet but no intention to seek Parliamentary approval.

### Financial system: supervision, climate risk, and AML/CFT
- Credit unions and non-banks:
  - FSRC should strengthen oversight and regulation of credit unions.
  - On-site examinations: annually for two systematically important credit unions; less frequently for smaller ones.
  - Examinations should target risks from fast loan expansion and be guided by improved stress testing frameworks.
  - Strengthen standards for recognizing, provisioning for, and resolving NPLs.
  - Recent efforts: require internal auditing capacity, qualified board members, and dedicated risk managers for larger credit unions.
  - Harmonize regulation across ECCU and institute risk-based capital requirements to level with banks.
  - Credit unions do not have deposit insurance and hold credit lines in commercial banks to manage liquidity.
- Climate risk in financial oversight:
  - FSRC should accelerate incorporation of climate risks into supervisory and regulatory frameworks.
  - Need to revamp insurance stress testing framework due to adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards 17.
  - FSRC collecting information from non-banks and cooperating with ECCB; CARTAC technical support recommended.
- Financial intermediation constraints:
  - Upcoming regional credit bureau expected to streamline lending, reduce information asymmetries, facilitate prudent risk-taking, and improve credit quality.
  - SMEs face informality, lack of information recording and financial planning, and limited collateral.
  - Eastern Caribbean Partial Credit Guarantee Corporation helps SMEs meet documentation and collateral requirements; incentivizing SMEs to register businesses would boost access.
  - Regional modernization of national insolvency law will facilitate NPL resolution and provide lender clarity.
- AML/CFT and CIP:
  - Strengthen risk-based AML/CFT supervision of financial institutions and designated nonfinancial businesses and professions.
  - Ensure licensing requirements extend to beneficial owners of applicants for business licenses.
  - Deploy recently-expanded sanctioning powers where needed.
  - Office of National Drug and Money Laundering Control Policy should build capacity for supervisory functions under the Digital Assets Business Act for AML/CFT purposes.
  - Use Financial Intelligence Unit databases to assess applicants for CIP agents.
  - Consider regional approaches to standardize best practices and enhance information sharing to maintain integrity and long-term sustainability of the Citizenship-by-Investment Program.
- Authorities’ views:
  - Committed to strengthening supervision and regulation of non-banks and enhancing AML/CFT and CIP frameworks.
  - Two largest credit unions reported relatively low NPLs compared with regional peers.
  - Agreed stress testing framework could be improved and are scheduled to receive CARTAC technical assistance.
  - Interested in technical assistance for a comprehensive assessment of non-banks.
  - Addressing Caribbean Financial Action Task Force recommendations and engaging in outreach to diversify CIP applicants.

### Improving growth prospects and building resilience
- Tourism and connectivity:
  - Increase flight connectivity and expand cruise ship homeporting to sustain tourism growth.
  - Boost tourism during low season to smooth hotel occupancy; resume LIAT on profitable routes to improve intra-regional connectivity.
  - Several cruise lines plan to use Antigua and Barbuda as a homeport; expanded Antigua Cruise Port capacity and dedicated cruise terminal will facilitate larger cruise ship arrivals.
  - Authorities’ views: agreed with policies to boost tourism and up-skill labor force; prefer not to provide government guarantees to airlines; careful integration of cruise homeporting to avoid crowding out stayover tourism.
- Human capital and labor market:
  - Recent investment in vocational training and local university expected to enhance tertiary education quality and access.
  - Improve quality of vocational training to increase job placement rates.
  - New Work Experience Programme should evaluate outcomes and ensure participants' successful exits.
  - One Stop Employment Centre should enhance employer-employee matching.
- Climate resilience and climate finance:
  - Limited fiscal space requires further mobilization of donor support.
  - Authorities utilizing funding from Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund and Global Environment Facility; projects are grant-based or concessional.
  - Upgrading accreditation levels to increase access limits and shifting to larger projects to reduce reporting and implementation costs.
  - Climate Resilience and Development Fund operationalized to co-finance climate-related projects.
  - Updated National Adaptation Plan planned to be completed in February 2024.
  - Authorities exploring blue bonds or a debt-for-climate swap; progress limited to date.
  - Authorities’ views: making steady resilience progress; enforcing building codes for Category 4 and 5 hurricanes for new construction and improving resilience of existing buildings; expect access to larger climate projects after updating accreditations; stressed need to strengthen collection of the Tourism Guest Levy to fund the Climate Resilience and Development Fund.
- Renewable energy transition:
  - International Renewable Energy Agency estimate: successful energy transition could reduce the country’s energy costs by up to 40 percent and would require up-front capital costs of up to around 25 percent of GDP (to upgrade the electricity grid, expand electric vehicles, and invest in wind and solar generation).
  - Importance of mobilizing donor funding for the energy transition.
  - Regulatory barriers have slowed household and business utilization of solar power.
  - Antigua and Barbuda Institute of Continuing Education adjusting curriculum to train workers for the energy transition.
  - Authorities’ views: challenges include a long-term energy purchase contract with a traditional electricity producer, up-front costs for battery storage, and need to upgrade the grid to improve capacity.

*Source: IMF staff summary of Antigua and Barbuda policy and program discussion (excerpts).*

### 35. Progress is being made to improve data quality, but further efforts are needed. Data

### 35. Progress is being made to improve data quality, but further efforts are needed. Data

### Data quality and ongoing initiatives
- Data provision is broadly adequate for surveillance, but with important shortcomings.
- Ongoing data initiatives include:
  - the construction of a Producer Price Index for services,
  - completing the 2023 Labor Force Survey,
  - rebasing the national accounts data along with methodological improvements,
  - improving external statistics.
- Rental costs have been reintroduced in the Consumer Price Index using interpolation, and surveys will resume once the census is completed next year.
- Efforts are underway to produce poverty indices based on the results of the Labor Force Survey.
- Conducting a household expenditure survey would enable the analysis of the distributional impact of potential fiscal measures.
- Timely reporting on central government and state-owned enterprise operations would help inform policy decisions.

### Authorities’ views on data
- The authorities agreed that more efforts should be made to enhance data quality and availability.
- They highlighted the progress made to publish the results of the Labor Force Survey this year, improvements to the national accounts statistics, and improvements to the Consumer Price Index and FDI statistics.
- Challenges in obtaining granular information due to privacy issues have slowed progress in constructing the Producer Price Index for services.
- The authorities recognized the importance of providing timely statistics on central government and state-owned enterprise operations.

### Staff appraisal — macro outlook and risks
- The bounce back from the COVID-19 pandemic has been strong but fiscal and external imbalances remain and the economy is highly exposed to large, negative shocks.
- Economic activity, boosted by tourism and construction sectors, is expected to reach its pre-pandemic levels this year and gradually moderate to its long-run trend.
- Inflation remains elevated although underlying price pressures are gradually dissipating.
- The fiscal deficit and debt have been declining as a share of GDP but both the stock of outstanding arrears and gross financing needs are large.
- The external position in 2022 is assessed to be weaker than the level implied by medium term fundamentals and desirable policies.
- Downside risks emanate from:
  - the potential for slower growth in trading partners,
  - higher global commodity prices,
  - a stronger U.S. dollar,
  - weaker-than-expected fiscal outturns,
  - more restrictive fiscal financing,
  - and climate-related events.

### Fiscal policy: measures and recommendations
- Addressing fiscal imbalances will require both revenue measures and expenditure restraint.
- Authorities’ ongoing initiatives to improve the primary balance include:
  - imposing caps on discretionary tax exemptions,
  - transitioning to HS 2022 classification in customs,
  - reassessing property values,
  - raising the tax rate for high end properties,
  - and continuing expenditure restraint.
- Additional revenues should be mobilized by:
  - broadening the ABST base,
  - introducing excise taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar,
  - and improving the collection of property taxes.
- Increasing the standard ABST rate could be considered.
- Efforts to introduce a single window system at customs and to operationalize systems to allow e-filing, e-payment and e-registration of taxes should be accelerated.
- Tax administration should be further strengthened through additional auditing capacity.

### Cash and debt management
- Fiscal adjustment should be accompanied by a sound cash and debt management strategy.
- The strategy should focus on:
  - mitigating rollover risks by extending the debt maturity profile,
  - engaging with creditors,
  - clearing past arrears and avoiding the accumulation of new arrears,
  - exploring avenues for increasing climate financing and disaster insurance,
  - and undertaking contingency planning.

### Social safety net and targeting
- The social safety net should be strengthened to provide more targeted support to the vulnerable.
- Ongoing efforts to establish a centralized beneficiary database should be accelerated to avoid duplication and gaps in coverage.
- Consolidating the numerous programs would help ease their coordination and administration.
- There should be a shift from generalized subsidies and support to more targeted programs with benefits periodically adjusted to reflect cost of living changes.

### Fiscal institutions and transparency
- Fiscal institutions could be enhanced to buttress the credibility of the fiscal framework.
- To enhance fiscal discipline and oversight:
  - the MTFS and FRG should be endorsed by the parliament.
  - The establishment of the Fiscal Responsibility Oversight Committee should be accelerated.
  - The Finance Administration Act and the Customs Act should be amended to codify the planned restraint on discretionary tax exemptions.
  - Statutory exemptions should be consistent with the Antigua and Barbuda Investment Authority Act and the Antigua and Barbuda Investment Authority should monitor the approved projects.
- The shortcomings in the transparency and exchange of information frameworks for tax purposes as identified in the Global Forum’s 2023 Peer Review should be addressed, which would also help Antigua and Barbuda exit the EU’s listing of non-cooperative jurisdictions for tax purposes.

### Financial stability and intermediation
- There is scope to bolster financial stability through stronger frameworks and address constraints to intermediation.
- Recommendations include:
  - strengthening the oversight and regulation of credit unions,
  - further improving the stress testing framework by incorporating climate risks,
  - continuing to enhance the AML/CFT and CIP frameworks including by improving risk-based AML/CFT supervision and mitigating risks to the integrity and sustainability of CIP,
  - and continuing regional efforts to modernize the national insolvency law.

### Structural policies: tourism, human capital, and climate
- Continued efforts are needed to boost tourism, increase human capital, and undertake climate change-related investments.
- Specific actions include:
  - increasing flight connectivity and cruise ship homeporting,
  - strengthening active labor market policies,
  - enhancing opportunities for vocational education,
  - and mobilizing donor support to finance improvements in climate resilience and the transition to renewable energy.

*International Monetary Fund — Antigua and Barbuda chapter excerpt*

### 44. It is recommended that the next Article IV consultation with Antigua and Barbuda take

### It is recommended that the next Article IV consultation with Antigua and Barbuda take place on the standard 12-month cycle.

### Recommendation
- It is recommended that the next Article IV consultation with Antigua and Barbuda take place on the standard 12-month cycle.

### Economic Developments
- The economy is steadily recovering from the pandemic shock, supported by the return in tourist arrivals.
- The recovery is broad-based despite credit to the private sector (dominated by commercial banks) remaining weak.
- FDI inflows, mainly to the hospitality sector, have been strong post pandemic.
- Inflation was elevated in 2022 compared to ECCU peers but has since begun to recede.
- Sources: Country authorities, ECCB and IMF staff calculations.

### Fiscal Sector Developments
- The fiscal balance improved in 2022 mostly due to a decline in expenditures as a share of GDP.
- Revenues excluding grants grew largely in line with GDP in 2022.
- The backpay contributed to the increase in the wage bill in 2022.
- The fiscal deficit in 2022 was mainly financed by securities issuances and accumulation of arrears.
- The gross financing needs in 2022 were mainly met by external sources, domestic borrowing, and accumulation of arrears.
- Public debt has declined in 2022 owing to rising nominal GDP with the fiscal balance remaining in deficit.
- Sources: Country authorities, ECCB and IMF staff calculations.

### External Sector Developments
- Current account deficit in 2022 remained large due to strong imports.
- Tourism rebound in 2022 was led by those from the U.S. and U.K.
- Import growth in 2022 continued to be broad-based.
- Large current account deficit in 2022 continued to be mainly financed by FDI.
- Reserve coverage remained broadly stable. The real effective exchange rate moved with U.S. dollar.
- Sources: Country authorities, ECCB and IMF staff calculations.

### Banking System Developments
- Commercial banks saw stable NPLs, which at the sector level, were moderately elevated.
- They had adequate capital, albeit lower than pre-pandemic levels.
- Commercial bank credit to the private sector has resumed growing in 2023, amid a slower growth in deposits.
- Liquidity plateaued and was lower than pre-pandemic levels.
- The upward trend of net foreign assets flattened in 2022.
- Sources: Country authorities, ECCB and IMF staff calculations.

### Gross Financing Needs (Table highlights)
- Total Gross Financing Needs (Prel.): 705 729 644 579 523 599 574 682 842
- (in percent of GDP): 18.4 17.3 13.6 11.0 9.1 9.8 9.0 10.2 12.0
- Deficit Financing: 235 196 198 109 59 61 61 71
- Central Government External Amortization: 269 272 228 270 233 307 356 436 544
- Securities (central government): 245 231 171 182 75 95 75 85 79
- Central Government Domestic Amortization: 201 261 218 200 231 230 158 185 227
- Financing Sources (total): 500 786 501 353 214 225 179 143 153
  - External: 238 414 237 232 146 146 110 74 74
  - Domestic: 278 317 286 120 68 79 69 69 79
- Financing Discrepancy/Gaps: 205 -57 1422 2730 9374 3955 39689
- Valuation adjustment, write off, and debt relief: 550 0000000
- Financing gap (alternate): 150 -57 1422 2730 9374 3955 39689
- Footnotes: 1/ In 2021, reflects government's sale of 10 percent of WIOC. 2/ Financing gaps for 2023 and beyond. Discrepancy for 2022 and before. Financing gaps assumed filled by unidentified long-term financing sources.
- (Millions of Eastern Caribbean dollars)

### Central Government Operations (Table highlights)
- Total Revenue and Grants (Prel.): 859 849 7 558 169 181,064 1,177 1,258 1,320 1,391 1,463
- Current revenue: 756 704 651 694 825 915 1,029 1,109 1,175 1,245 1,310
- Tax Revenue: 680 672 610 667 752 840 950 1,025 1,086 1,151 1,213
  - o/w Income: 78 79 8 783 718 110 111 0115 121 127
  - o/w Domestic Production and Consumption: 330 306 2 643 3139 7455 0254 3576610641
  - o/w AB Sales Tax: 278 253 20 724 2305 33837 540 843 446 1485
  - o/w International Transactions: 251 259 2 412 2925 227030 1323344367389
- Total Expenditure: 966 1,031 990 1,012 1,116 1,172 1,236 1,319 1,381 1,452 1,534
- Total primary expenditure: 857 905 895 915 998 1,085 1,125 1,202 1,258 1,325 1,392
- Current expenditure: 883 943 883 391 297 211,011 1,059 1,129 1,184 1,241 1,309
- Wages and salaries: 389 400 389 394 430 461 462 493 518 543 570
- Interest payments (levels difficult to parse from source line but shown in table)
- Primary Balance (selected values): 2 -56 -140 -99 -80 -215 256 626 770
- Overall Balance (selected values): -107 -181 -235 -196 -198 -109 -59 -61 -61 -61 -71
- Financing (selected values): 107 181 235 196 198 109 59 61 61 71
- External (net) financing (selected values): 58 53 -3 114 29 -38 -87 -161 -246 -362 -470
- Disbursement: 224 254 23 84 142 372 321 461 461 107 474
- Amortization (central government external): -166 -201 -269 -272 -228 -270 -233 -307 -356 -436 -544
- Domestic (net) financing: 55 -67 1954 6 -80 -163 -152 -89 -116 -148
- Issuances (government securities): 191 165 141 227 205 108 68 79 69 69 79
- Changes in deposits (increase -): 2 -10 -1539 -22000000
- Asset sales/purchases (2021): 150000000
- Statistical discrepancy and financing discrepancy values appear in table.
- Memorandum items:
  - Central government debt stock (selected): 3,241 3,259 3,300 3,433 3,529 3,582 3,659 3,733 3,806 3,881 3,966
  - Central government debt (incl. guarantees): 3,783 3,803 3,829 4,021 4,134 4,255 4,388 4,511 4,623 4,738 4,865
  - GDP at market prices (selected): 4,333 4,524 3,824 4,213 4,746 5,268 5,720 6,103 6,403 6,717 7,047
- Footnotes:
  - 1/ For 2021, reflects EC$29 million in arrears write-off by RBTT.
  - 2/ Includes contributions to social security, medical benefits, and education.
  - 3/ Projection reflects amortization due (accrual basis).
  - 4/ In 2021, reflects the government's sale of 10 percent of its equity stake in WIOC.
  - 5/ Includes interest and amortization arrears, unpaid vouchers to domestic creditors, personnel payables, and unpaid contributions.

### Central Government Operations (Percent of GDP highlights)
- Total Revenue and Grants (percent of GDP): 19.8 18.8 19.7 19.4 19.3 20.2 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.7 20.8
- Current revenue: 17.4 15.6 17.0 16.5 17.4 17.4 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.6
- Tax Revenue: 15.7 14.9 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.9 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2
- Total Expenditure: 22.3 22.8 25.9 24.0 23.5 22.3 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.8 22.3
- Primary Balance (percent of GDP): 0.0 -1.2 -3.7 -2.3 -1.7 -0.4 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
- Overall Balance (percent of GDP): -2.5 -4.0 -6.2 -4.6 -4.2 -2.1 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0
- Financing Gap (percent of GDP for projections): 4.3 5.4 6.1 6.2 8.0 9.8 (as shown in table)
- Memorandum Items:
  - Central government debt stock (percent of GDP): 74.8 72.1 86.3 81.5 74.4 68.0 64.0 61.2 59.4 57.8 56.3
  - Central government debt (incl. guarantees) (percent of GDP): 87.3 84.1 100.1 95.4 87.1 80.8 76.7 73.9 72.2 70.5 69.0
- Footnotes mirror Table 3a.

### Central Government Debt (Table highlights)
- Total Central Government Debt (2022 and 2021 breakdowns provided in table)
  - Total Central Government Debt (stock): 1,271.3 85.4 81.5 1,306.9 85.4 74.4 (table displays multiple columns; source values preserved)
- Central Government Domestic Debt (selected): 660.7 44.4 42.3 695.5 45.4 39.6
  - ECCB: 44.7 3.0 2.9 50.8 3.3 2.9
  - Bank loans: 143.6 9.6 9.2 145.9 9.5 8.3
  - Government securities: 253.1 17.0 16.2 272.5 17.8 15.5
- Central Government External Debt (selected): 610.6 41.0 39.1 611.3 39.9 34.8
  - Multilateral: 169.3 11.4 10.8 165.0 10.8 9.4
  - Caribbean Development Bank: 163.9 11.0 10.5 159.7 10.4 9.1
  - Bilateral: 368.9 24.8 23.6 357.9 23.4 20.4
  - Paris Club: 149.1 10.0 9.6 150.6 9.8 8.6
  - Non-Paris Club: 219.7 14.8 14.1 207.3 13.5 11.8
  - Government securities (external): 72.5 4.9 4.6 88.5 5.8 5.0
- Government Guaranteed Domestic Debt: 99.4 6.7 6.4 100.6 6.6 5.7
- Government Guaranteed External Debt: 118.5 8.0 7.6 123.7 8.1 7.0
- Total Public Sector Debt: 1,489.2 100.0 95.4 1,531.1 100.0 87.1
- Sources: Country authorities and IMF staff calculations.
- Footnote: 1/ Includes principal and interest arrears and reflects reconciliation of outstanding debt from statutory bodies.
- 2/ Includes vouchers for capital as well as for goods and services, and floating debt.

### Balance of Payments (Table highlights)
- Current Account (US$ million): -233.7 -119.9 -230.7 -243.7 -284.5 -242.8 -248.2 -252.1 -251.3 -255.2 -263.4
- Trade balance (US$ million): -579.8 -576.7 -405.9 -477.7 -662.8 -666.8 -715.2 -747.9 -774.3 -808.4 -846.6
  - Exports (f.o.b.): 43.0 50.1 34.5 47.6 51.0 57.9 63.0 67.2 70.5 73.9 77.6
  - Imports (f.o.b.): 622.7 626.8 440.3 525.2 713.8 724.7 778.1 815.0 844.8 882.3 924.2
- Non-factor services balance: 484.8 590.4 257.4 363.1 508.7 565.4 675.7 722.2 764.3 808.5 854.0
  - Gross tourist receipts: 776.0 903.6 412.9 538.9 773.2 903.6 1,041.8 1,113.6 1,179.3 1,248.0 1,318.7
- Income (net): -80.2 -80.3 -20.0 -63.2 -58.0 -67.2 -123.0 -135.0 -145.4 -154.7 -165.2
  - Of which: Interest on public sector debt: -10.6 -12.1 -10.5 -13.2 -11.4 -16.2 -21.6 -28.4 -34.7 -39.7 -45.7
- Current transfers (net): -58.5 -53.3 -62.2 -65.8 -72.4 -74.1 -85.7 -91.4 -95.9 -100.6 -105.6
- Capital and Financial Account (US$ million): 187.2 171.6 207.3 198.9 225.6 242.8 248.2 252.1 251.3 255.2 263.4
- Financial Account (US$ million): -163.9 -141.2 -167.0 -160.6 -199.2 -196.5 -202.7 -206.6 -207.2 -211.1 -217.6
  - a. Official flows: -23.7 -31.2 33.8 -56.0 -22.3 -13.5 -73.9 -67.1 -53.0 -50.6 -53.9
  - Public sector loans (net): -20.0 -12.4 24.0 -52.9 -17.4 -13.5 -73.9 -67.1 -53.0 -50.6 -53.9
    - Disbursements: 62.4 90.0 72.0 141.2 93.4 103.2 155.7 169.3 160.8 182.2 218.8
    - Amortization (-): 42.4 77.6 96.0 88.4 75.9 89.7 81.8 102.1 107.8 131.5 164.9
  - b. Non-official flows: -132.2 -40.8 -108.9 -163.4 -178.3 -190.4 -219.5 -218.8 -218.3 -217.7 -217.1
    - Foreign direct investment (net): -205.7 -139.4 -74.8 -248.2 -230.7 -190.4 -219.5 -218.8 -218.3 -217.7 -217.1
- c. Overall Balance (US$ million): -7.9 -69.1 -91.9 58.7 71.4 7.4 90.8 79.3 64.1 57.2 53.5
- Financing: 7.9 69.1 91.9 -58.7 -1.4 -7.4 -90.8 -79.3 -64.1 -57.2 -53.5
- Change in imputed international reserves (increase -): -15.0 49.6 57.2 -102.1 -22.3 -43.8 -72.1 -60.3 -44.0 -37.6 -36.1
- Net use of IMF resources: -8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
- Caribbean Development Bank financing (net): 11.4 -2.3 7.2 25.0 -4.2 36.4 -18.6 -18.9 -20.0 -19.5 -17.2
- External Financing Gap (US$ million, projections): 0.0 36.1 49.1 59.6 63.0 85.9 109.8
- Errors and Omissions: 46.5 -51.7 23.4 44.8 58.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
- Memorandum items:
  - Current account (percent of GDP): -14.6 -7.2 -16.3 -15.6 -16.2 -12.4 -11.7 -11.2 -10.6 -10.3 -10.1
  - Gross tourist receipts (percent of GDP): 48.4 53.9 29.2 34.5 44.0 46.3 49.2 49.3 49.7 50.2 50.5
  - Net imputed international reserves (US$ million): 328.5 278.9 221.7 323.8 346.1 389.9 462.0 522.3 566.3 603.9 639.9
  - Net imputed international reserves (months of prospective imports): 3.3 4.5 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4
  - GDP at market prices (US$ million): 1,605 1,675 1,416 1,561 1,758 1,951 2,118 2,260 2,372 2,488 2,610
- Sources: Country authorities, ECCB, and IMF staff estimates and projections.
- Footnotes clarify signs, instruments, and assumptions (external financing gap filled, synthetic instrument financing).

*Source: IMF staff compilation from the Antigua and Barbuda Article IV staff report tables and figures.*

### Annex I. Implementation of Fund’s Past Policy Advice

### Annex I. Implementation of Fund’s Past Policy Advice

### Fiscal sustainability
- Recommendation: Achieve the targets of the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy by limiting tax exemptions, introducing new tax measures, and containing the wage bill.
  - Authorities’ action: Ongoing. The authorities have decided to cap discretionary tax exemptions, increase property taxes for high end properties and are considering further tax measures to achieve medium-term targets.
- Recommendation: Conduct a public sector employment census and skills database as part of a longer-term strategy to address the wage bill.
  - Authorities’ action: Limited. To control the wage bill, the authorities have contained wage and employment growth. There are currently no plans to conduct a public sector employment census or set up a skills database.

### Fiscal structural reforms and public financial management
- Recommendation: Legislate the MTFS and Fiscal Resilience Guidelines by parliament.
  - Authorities’ action: No progress. There are currently no plans to legislate MTFS or the Fiscal Resilience Guidelines.
- Recommendation: Operationalize the Climate Resilience and Development Fund, Fiscal Resilience Oversight Committee, and single window system at customs.
  - Authorities’ action: Partial. The Climate Resilience and Development Fund has been made operational. The work on the establishment of the Fiscal Resilience Oversight Committee is ongoing where committee members need to be identified and appointed.
- Recommendation: Put in place e-filing and e-payment of taxes.
  - Authorities’ action: Partial. The e-filing, e-payment and e-registration system has been put in place, but its usage remains limited due to transaction fees.
- Recommendation: Operationalize the single window system at customs.
  - Authorities’ action: Partial. Operationalizing the single window system at customs has been facing funding constraints.
- Recommendation: Implement the amended Finance Administration Act and Procurement Administration Act.
  - Authorities’ action: Ongoing. Amended Finance Administration Act and Procurement Administration Act are under review.
- Recommendation: Introduce a performance report card system for SOEs.
  - Authorities’ action: Ongoing. Work on the performance card for SOEs is in progress.
- Recommendation: Develop a public financial management action plan based on results of the recent Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability self-assessment.
  - Authorities’ action: Partial. Public financial management action plan has been drafted and is under review.

### Social protection
- Recommendation: Implement a clear framework for coordination between different government entities responsible for social safety net programs.
  - Authorities’ action: Ongoing but with limited progress.
- Recommendation: Allocate sufficient resources towards the completion and maintenance of the centralized beneficiary registry.
  - Authorities’ action: Limited. The work with UNICEF support to develop a centralized beneficiary system is ongoing but progress has been slow.
- Recommendation: Put in place an automatic fuel pricing mechanism, with full pass-through of international prices in conjunction with targeted social protection programs.
  - Authorities’ action: No progress. The authorities do not have plans for introducing an automatic fuel pricing mechanism at the present.

### Debt and arrears
- Recommendation: Maintain efforts to extend the maturity profile of public debt in the domestic and external markets.
  - Authorities’ action: Ongoing. Efforts are ongoing to extend the maturity of public debt.
- Recommendation: Closely engage with creditors to put in place feasible strategies for clearing remaining arrears and to avoid new arrears.
  - Authorities’ action: Partial/Limited. A reengagement strategy is being developed to clear arrears and secure financing on favorable terms.

### Social security pension system
- Recommendation: Gradually increase the contribution rate and automatic adjustments to the retirement age in line with the increase in life expectancy at retirement.
  - Authorities’ action: Limited. The authorities continue to execute the planned increase in the retirement age, minimum number of work weeks, and contribution rates, as set by the 2016 parametric pension reform. However, no concrete plan has been made for 2026 and beyond.
- Recommendation: Develop a revamped investment strategy to help address liquidity constraints and increase longer-term returns.
  - Authorities’ action: Ongoing but with limited progress.

### Financial stability
- Recommendation: Closely monitor asset quality and provisioning buffers of financial institutions.
  - Authorities’ action: Ongoing. The FSRC has required credit unions to strengthen governance and risk controls by requiring all institutions to have internal auditing capacity and qualified board members, and for the large credit unions to have dedicated risk managers.
- Recommendation: Formulate a national crisis management plan in collaboration with the ECCB to address potential risks to the financial system.
  - Authorities’ action: Limited. The FSRC has identified systematically important financial institutions (SIFIs) for tighter regulations but there has been limited progress towards a crisis management plan.
- Recommendation: Strengthen the AML/CFT and CIP frameworks to help protect correspondent banking relationships and strengthen the integrity of the CIP.
  - Authorities’ action: Ongoing. Work is ongoing to implement the FATF 40 recommendations.

### Financial intermediation
- Recommendation: Increase the role of the regional credit bureau and partial credit guarantee scheme in enhancing credit quality, accelerating the lending process, and alleviating collateral constraints of borrowers.
  - Authorities’ action: Ongoing. The regional credit bureau is expected to be operational in 2024. Efforts are ongoing to further increase utilization of the partial credit guarantee scheme, including helping SMEs with documentation requirements.
- Recommendation: Modernize the insolvency law to help incentivize lending.
  - Authorities’ action: Partial. Efforts are being made on harmonizing the insolvency law across the CARICOM region.

### Structural policies, climate change and resilience building
- Recommendation: Emphasize training, vocational education, and skills certification, together with job search assistance to reintegrate workers into the labor force.
  - Authorities’ action: Ongoing. There has been investments in vocational training and local universities.
- Recommendation: Continue efforts to leverage donor resources and other international financing for climate resilience projects. Accelerate shift to renewables, supported by private sector financing.
  - Authorities’ action: Partial. The authorities are working on updating accreditation levels with the climate funds and shifting focus towards larger projects. The Climate Resilience and Development Fund is operational.

*Source: Annex I. Implementation of Fund’s Past Policy Advice (1atgea2024001).*

### 1.      Public debt has declined since 2020 but remains elevated. After peaking at 100 percent

### 1.      Public debt has declined since 2020 but remains elevated. After peaking at 100 percent

### Debt dynamics and key findings
- Public debt peaked at 100 percent of GDP in 2020 and has been declining since, helped by a strong recovery in tourism and construction activity.
- Debt-to-GDP is projected to gradually decline as post-pandemic recovery continues and deficit financing is further reduced in line with the staff’s baseline scenario.
- Authorities are likely to meet their target of 70 percent of GDP by 2030 but are expected to stay marginally above the regional debt target of 60 percent of GDP by 2035 in the baseline scenario.
- Gross financing needs (GFN) are expected to remain elevated with sizeable financing gaps over the medium term; amortization obligations keep GFN elevated.
- Public debt is assessed as unsustainable in the staff assessment due to the large outstanding stock of arrears and the infeasibility of paying down these arrears over the medium term without a broader debt restructuring.
- Limited access to financing is likely to lead to financing gaps causing arrears to rise to around 10 percent of GDP by 2028.
- Debt dynamics could deteriorate in case of a slowdown in economic growth, fiscal underperformance, high exposure to natural disasters, and contingent liabilities.

### Baseline scenario assumptions and arrears treatment
- Baseline assumes fiscal financing gaps are filled by a synthetic instrument with a 5.5 percent interest rate and 5-year maturity, half financed domestically and half externally.
  - Financing composition of the synthetic instrument (more specific): domestic banks 23.3 percent, other domestic investors 30.9 percent, external official creditors 35.0 percent, external private creditors 10.8 percent.
- Baseline assumes arrears to the Paris Club will not be cleared and will continue to accumulate; arrears to El Fondo De Desarrollo Nacional S.A. are assumed to grow in line with authorities’ projections; arrears to the Medical Benefits Scheme remain unchanged.
- All arrears to the Paris Club and other unresolved domestic and external arrears are included in the debt stock throughout the projection horizon.
- The stock of arrears to the Paris Club is assumed to grow 3 percent per year after 2024 (when restructured amounts fall due per the 2010 Paris Club agreement).

### Climate adaptation and long-term risk assessment
- Staff assesses climate adaptation risks to be high over the long term.
- Estimates inputted to the climate adaptation module add up to around 1.6 percent of GDP, which includes 1.5 percent of GDP of adaptation coastal protection costs (estimate based on 2019 SIP).
- Uncertainty around climate adaptation cost estimates is substantial; staff adjusted coastal protection costs upward relative to default estimates to better reflect resilience needs.
- Long-term standardized scenario with staff-adjusted adaptation coastal protection costs suggests significant impact on GFN and debt dynamics.
- Overall long-term risk: High, reflecting high exposure to natural disasters and contingent liabilities.

### Debt coverage, consolidation, and disclosures
- Debt coverage in the DSA includes the central government and central government guaranteed debt of state-owned enterprises and statutory bodies; gross financing needs only cover the central government due to lack of information on state-owned enterprise primary balances.
- Subsector inclusion in the baseline:
  - Budgetary central government: Yes
  - Extra budgetary funds (EBFs): No
  - Social security funds (SSFs): Yes
  - State governments: NO
  - Local governments: NO
  - Public nonfinancial corporations: Yes
  - Central bank: NO
  - Other public financial corporations: no

### Baseline scenario: key projected numbers (Percent of GDP unless otherwise indicated)
- Public debt (Actual/Projection):  
  - 2022: 87.1  
  - 2023: 80.9  
  - 2024: 76.9  
  - 2025: 74.0  
  - 2026: 72.3  
  - 2027: 70.6  
  - 2028: 68.8  
  - 2029: 67.1  
  - 2030: 65.8  
  - 2031: 64.5  
  - 2032: 63.4
- Change in public debt: -8.3; -6.2; -4.0; -6.9; -4.6; -1.7; -1.7; -1.7; -1.3; -1.3; -1.1 (corresponding years)
- Contribution of identified flows to change in public debt: -6.2; -4.2; -5.4; -4.0; -2.7; -2.7; -2.7; -2.3; -2.0; -2.0; -1.8
- Primary deficit (percent of GDP): 1.7 (2022); 0.4 (2023); -0.9 (2024); -0.9 (2025); -1.0 (2026); -1.0 (2027); -1.0 (2028); -1.0 (2029); -0.8 (2030); -0.8 (2031); -0.6 (2032)
- Noninterest revenues (percent of GDP): 19.3; 20.2; 20.6; 20.6; 20.6; 20.7; 20.8; 20.8; 20.6; 20.6; 20.5
- Noninterest expenditures (percent of GDP): 21.0; 20.6; 19.7; 19.7; 19.7; 19.7; 19.8; 19.8; 19.8; 19.9; 19.9
- Automatic debt dynamics (percent of GDP): -7.8; -6.6; -4.2; -2.8; -1.6; -1.5; -1.5; -1.3; -1.3; -1.2; -1.2
- Real growth rate (percent): 8.5; 5.7; 5.5; 4.2; 2.8; 2.8; 2.8; 2.9; 2.9; 2.9; 2.9 (memo Real GDP growth shows same series)
- Gross financing needs (GFN, percent of GDP): 14.4; 11.1; 9.3; 9.8; 9.0; 10.1; 11.7; 10.7; 11.7; 12.1; 12.3
  - of which: debt service: 12.7; 10.7; 10.2; 10.7; 9.9; 11.1; 12.7; 11.7; 12.5; 12.9; 12.9
  - Local currency GFN: 10.8; 8.6; 7.7; 8.6; 8.0; 9.4; 11.1; 9.9; 10.6; 11.4; 11.9
  - Foreign currency GFN: 1.9; 2.1; 2.4; 2.2; 2.0; 1.7; 1.7; 1.7; 1.9; 1.5; 1.1
- Memo indicators:
  - Inflation (GDP deflator; percent): 3.8; 5.0; 2.9; 2.4; 2.0; 2.0; 2.0; 2.0; 2.0; 2.0; 2.0
  - Nominal GDP growth (percent): 12.6; 11.0; 8.6; 6.7; 4.9; 4.9; 4.9; 4.9; 4.9; 4.9; 4.9
  - Effective interest rate (percent): 3.4; 2.1; 2.6; 2.6; 2.6; 2.7; 2.7; 2.9; 2.9; 2.9; 2.9
- Staff commentary: Debt stock is expected to decline as a share of GDP due to a favorable real interest-growth differential as well as fiscal effort. Gross financing needs are underestimated because they do not fully capture the potential financing implications associated with repayment of arrears.

### Medium-term risk analysis and signals
- Mechanical signals (Debt Fanchart and GFN financeability) suggest moderate risk, but final medium-term risk is assessed as high given the large stock of arrears and limited access to financing.
- Debt Fanchart module outputs (selected values):
  - Fanchart width: 63.6
  - Probability of debt non-stabilization (percent): 19.0
  - Terminal debt-to-GDP x: 45.7
  - Debt fanchart index (DFI): 2.1 (Risk signal: Moderate)
- GFN module outputs (selected values):
  - Average baseline GFN (percent of GDP): 10.2
  - Banks' claims on the general government (pct bank assets): 9.1
  - Change in banks' claims in stress (pct banks' assets): 4.4
  - GFN financeability index (GFI): 7.9 (Risk signal: Moderate)
- Medium-term index final assessment: Prob. of missed crisis, 2023-2028, if stress not predicted: 18.2 pct.; Prob. of false alarms, 2023-2028, if stress predicted: 26.1 pct.
- Staff commentary: Mechanical signals point to moderate levels of risk; final medium-term risk assessment is high considering large stock of arrears and limited access to financing.

### Long-term scenarios and amortization profile
- Long-term modules show large amortization triggers and that alternative baseline long-term scenarios (historical averages or debt-stabilizing primary balance) result in increasing GFN path and a stable debt-to-GDP ratio only with a debt-stabilizing primary balance.
- Climate adaptation standardized and customized scenarios increase both GFN-to-GDP ratio and total public debt-to-GDP ratio relative to the baseline due to the 1.6 percent of GDP adaptation cost input.

### Tourism recovery and macro relevance
- Tourism activity is close to recovering to pre-pandemic levels; higher vaccination rates and relaxation of health restrictions led to faster recovery relative to other ECCU countries, though differences have narrowed.
- Strong demand by U.S. visitors has outpaced those from other source countries.
- Ongoing initiatives (boosting homeporting of cruise ships, regional tourists), reopening of hotels, and new construction projects expected to sustain demand and avoid accommodation shortages.
- Flight connectivity improving, but airlift lost during the pandemic, including intra-regional, has not fully recovered.
- Tourism risks: economic slowdown in source countries, continued rise in airfare costs and limited airlift, and a further strengthening of the dollar that would impact non-U.S. visitors.

*Source: Fund staff.*

### 1.      Recovery of stayover arrivals post-pandemic has been robust. From the period of

### 1.      Recovery of stayover arrivals post-pandemic has been robust. From the period of

### Stayover arrivals: levels and source-country performance
- January to June 2023 stayover arrivals reached 95 percent of 2019 levels.
- U.S. arrivals equaled 111 percent of its pre-pandemic level.
- U.K. arrivals equaled 97 percent of 2019 levels.
- Canada arrivals equaled 79 percent of 2019 levels.
- Caribbean arrivals equaled 83 percent of 2019 levels.
- Possible drivers of lagging recovery from the U.K., Canada, and the Caribbean: appreciation of the dollar and slower recovery of airlift.

### Geographic and temporal patterns within the region
- In 2022, stayover arrivals in the ECCU reached 88 percent of 2019 levels.
- Antigua and Barbuda outperformed other ECCU countries in 2022.
- More recent data for 2023 indicate robust growth across the region, with other ECCU countries catching up and some surpassing Antigua and Barbuda.

### Vaccination and resilience
- Antigua and Barbuda’s vaccination rate equaled 66 percent by December 2021.
- The vaccination rate surpassed the world rate from February 2021 availability through end-2022.
- Higher vaccination uptake likely increased population resilience, visitor confidence, and reduced economic disruptions, supporting tourism recovery.

### Cruise, yacht passengers, and composition effects
- Cruise ship passengers in 2022 equaled 51 percent of 2019 levels.
- Cruise ship passengers January–June 2023 equaled 89 percent of 2019 levels.
- Yacht passengers January–June 2023 equaled 119 percent of 2019 levels.
- Share of pre-booked tours among cruise passengers has increased; cruise lines planning longer port stays may boost transportation and entertainment sector benefits.
- Average daily expenditure is higher for U.S. arrivals than for the U.K., Canada, and the Caribbean.
- U.S. visitors tend to stay for shorter durations but have slightly higher total trip expenditure per person than other regions.
- Compositional shifts in visitor origin did not have a material impact on overall travel receipts.

### Capacity, homeporting, and airlift
- Several cruise lines are interested in homeporting in Antigua and Barbuda next season.
- Emerald Cruises begins full turnaround calls in November 2023.
- Dredging work aimed for completion in October 2023 to enable reception of Oasis-class (largest) cruise ships.
- Average hotel occupancy rate was 69 percent in 2022, compared with 64 percent in 2019.
- Reopening of hotels and new construction/expansion projects expected to prevent binding accommodation supply constraints.
- Short stays (e.g., from homeporting) are less profitable than longer stays; potential crowding out between visitor types should be monitored.
- Flights January–September 2023 relative to pre-pandemic levels:
  - U.K.: 84 percent
  - Canada: 80 percent
  - Caribbean: 84 percent
  - U.S.: 129 percent
- Comparison for U.S.: flights at 129 percent versus stayover arrivals at 111 percent suggests capacity for further tourism growth from the U.S.

### Baseline outlook and downside risks
- Staff baseline projects continued recovery in tourism, consistent with projections of U.S. private services consumption demand.
- Downside risks include:
  - Slowdown in source country demand.
  - Further strengthening of the dollar (which could impact demand from source countries not recovered to pre-pandemic levels as of January–June 2023).
  - Rising airfare costs.
  - Ongoing limited airlift.

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### Annex VI — Impact of Tighter Global Financial Conditions on Antigua and Barbuda

#### Overview
- Tighter global financial conditions affect Antigua and Barbuda via financial channels (public debt financing, financial institutions’ balance sheets) and real channels (services exports and FDI).
- The recent tightening’s impact appears limited so far, but persistence of tight conditions and the country’s vulnerabilities (large financing needs, high dependence on tourism) warrant close monitoring.

#### Recent global tightening context and staff projection
- U.S. 6-month and 1-year T-Bill rates were both less than 25 bps in November 2021, rising to above 5 percent in September 2023.
- Staff projections (October) indicate the federal funds rate remaining at 5¼–5½ percent until late in 2024.

#### Public debt financing channel
- Higher borrowing costs and lower international investor risk appetite can limit public debt financing and complicate maturity extension.
- Government planned Eurobond in Fall 2022 to meet large gross financing needs (around 13 percent of GDP in 2022), but issuance did not materialize due to tightening global conditions.
- Government tapped the Regional Governments Securities Market (RGSM); auctions mostly on short-term treasury bills, with steeply higher costs for longer maturities.
- Yields in RGSM did not rise along with global interest rates; in June 2023, two issuances with maturities of 6-month and 1-year had yields falling to 2.5 percent, respectively.
- Private bond placements (around 30 percent of total securities issuances in 2021–22), mostly longer duration, saw modest yield increases and shortening of tenors in 2022 versus 2021.

#### Balance sheets of financial institutions
- As of June 2023, around 43 percent of commercial bank assets are liquid.
- Capital is close to 10 percent of total assets.
- Banks’ foreign assets account for about 6.8 percent of total assets, with about two-thirds exposed to non-Caribbean countries, implying non-Caribbean asset exposure is less than 5 percent of commercial banks’ total assets.
- Abundant liquidity and limited foreign exposure have left various lending rates mostly insensitive to global rate increases.
- Floor for banks’ prime loan rates increased in early 2023 by only 25 bps and has been stable since.
- Floors for various savings and time deposit rates, set by the ECCB, remain unchanged.
- Interest rate spreads between lending and deposit rates have not materially changed since late-2021.
- Credit unions and insurance companies have little exposure to overseas long-duration assets, partly due to regulatory constraints; impacts on them have been limited.

#### Services trade channel
- Higher interest rates can slow the global economy, negatively impacting tourism-dependent small open economies.
- Despite sharp tightening since end-2021, services demand from main tourism source country (U.S.) has been robust.
- Staff forecast for U.S. private services consumption made in July 2023 has not been materially different from two years earlier.
- The U.S. contributes about half of stayover tourist arrivals for Antigua and Barbuda, muting overall impact on services trade.

#### FDI channel
- Higher global interest rates can increase financing costs for FDI and make investors more reluctant to invest in emerging markets.
- FDI dominates private financial inflows to Antigua and Barbuda and is largely invested in the hospitality industry.
- FDI has remained strong since the beginning of the global tightening cycle.
- In 2021, a mega project in Barbuda contributed to a surge in FDI; as the project has a multi-year horizon and started prior to the rise in global interest rates, those investments are expected to continue.

*Prepared by Alexander Amundsen and Archit Singhal; Annex prepared by Weicheng Lian and Hou Wang.*

### 3. The impact of recent tighter global financial conditions appears to have been

### 3. The impact of recent tighter global financial conditions appears to have been

### Contained impact and risks to monitor
- Recent tightening in global financial conditions appears to have been contained so far, but continued monitoring is needed.
- Risks noted:
  - Inflation could remain high in advanced economies, potentially triggering more restrictive monetary policy.
  - Persistent interest rate differentials could lead to large capital outflows or a decline in deposits, which would adversely affect the government’s debt rollover ability.
  - A reduction in demand for tourism or foreign investment would have adverse consequences on real economic activity, spillovers to the financial system, and on public finances.
- Recommended monitoring actions:
  - Continue monitoring financial institutions’ balance sheets to detect capital outflows or deposit declines.
  - Monitor tourism demand and foreign investment trends for early signs of adverse spillovers to the real economy and public finances.

### Fund relations and IMF engagement (As of September 30, 2023)
- Membership Status: Joined February 25, 1982; Article VIII.
- General Resources Account (SDR Million; Percent of Quota):
  - Quota 20.00 100.00
  - IMF's Holdings of Currency (Holdings Rate) 19.96 99.79
  - Reserve Tranche Position 0.05 0.26
- SDR Department (SDR Million; Percent of Allocation):
  - Net cumulative allocation 31.67 100.00
  - Holdings 0.29 0.92
- Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None
- Latest Financial Arrangements:
  - Stand-By: Date of Arrangement June 7, 2010; Date of Expiration June 6, 2013; Amount Approved (SDR Million) 67.50; Amount Drawn (SDR Million) 67.50
- Overdue Obligations and Projected Payments to Fund (SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):
  - Charges/Interest: 2023 0.32; 2024 1.30; 2025 1.30; 2026 1.30; 2027 1.30
  - Total: 2023 0.32; 2024 1.30; 2025 1.30; 2026 1.30; 2027 1.30
- Article IV Consultation:
  - The 2022 Article IV Consultation was concluded by the IMF Executive Board on November 30, 2022. The staff report was published on May 30, 2023.

### Exchange arrangements and monetary framework
- Exchange rate arrangement: currency board.
- Participation: currency union with seven other members of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union; no separate legal tender.
- Monetary authority: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) manages monetary policy and the exchange system for its eight members.
- Peg: Eastern Caribbean dollar pegged to the U.S. dollar at the rate of EC$2.70 per U.S. dollar since July 1976.
- Article VIII obligations: Antigua and Barbuda has accepted the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2(a), 3 and 4; maintains an exchange system free of restrictions on payments and transfers for current international transactions and multiple currency practices.

### Safeguards, technical assistance, and FSAP participation
- Safeguards Assessment:
  - ECCB made progress addressing the 2021 safeguards recommendations.
  - Outstanding recommendations: legal reforms to strengthen operational autonomy of the ECCB and align its Agreement Act with leading practices; enhanced project governance framework for DCash; strengthening the risk management function.
- Technical Assistance (missions from FAD, MCM, and STA, supported by CARTAC) — selected entries, 2019–23:
  - February 2019: Tax Administration – TADAT Assessment
  - June 2019: Macroeconomic Program – Assisting with medium-term macroeconomic forecasting
  - July 2019: External Sector Statistics – Data sources and backcasting
  - July 2020: External Sector Statistics – Collection and compilation in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic
  - July 2021: Customs Administration – Strengthening performance management
  - August 2021: External Sector Statistics – Data sources and estimation techniques
  - September 2021: Tax Administration – Strengthening audit capacity
  - October 2021: Tax Administration – Enhancing compliance risk management for large and medium taxpayers
  - November 2021: Real Sector Statistics – Development of services producer price indices
  - July 2022: Real Sector Statistics – Review of rental component of the consumer price index
  - September 2022: External Sector Statistics – Provisional 2021 balance of payments
  - February 2023: Real Sector Statistics – Development of producer price indices for services
  - February 2023: Real Sector Statistics – Compiling supply and use tables, rebasing national accounts
  - February 2023: Tax Policy – Rationalization of VAT exemptions, zero-ratings and concessions plus property tax diagnostic
  - August 2023: External Sector Statistics – BOP/IIP – source data
- FSAP Participation:
  - Antigua and Barbuda participated in the regional Eastern Caribbean Currency Union FSAP conducted in September and October 2003. The Financial System Stability Assessment is IMF Country Report No. 04/293.

### Statistical issues and data adequacy (As of October 13, 2023)
- General assessment: Data provision broadly adequate for surveillance, but with important shortcomings—timely publication of central government and SOEs’ operations reports is a key area needing attention.
- Real Sector Statistics:
  - National accounts: being rebased to reference year 2018; methodological improvements and compilation of supply and use tables ongoing.
  - Work ongoing to construct a Producer Price Index for services and update the Labor Force Survey and the Skills Demand Survey.
  - Rental costs reintroduced in the Consumer Price Index using interpolation; surveys to resume once the census is completed next year.
  - Efforts underway to produce poverty indices based on Labor Force Survey results.
- Government Finance Statistics:
  - Annual and quarterly central government data published by the ECCB broadly follow the 1986 Government Financial Statistics Manual.
  - ECCB expressed interest in aligning ECCU fiscal statistics with GFSM 2014 and the Public Sector Debt Statistics Guide; limited progress to date.
  - Authorities working to address delays in submission of central government statistics due to information system upgrades.
  - Reports on SOEs’ financial operations are not available.
- Monetary and Financial Statistics:
  - Monthly monetary statistics compiled and reported to the Fund by the ECCB since July 2006, based on standardized report forms for the central bank and other depository corporations.
  - Main shortcomings: incomplete institutional coverage of other depository corporations (mortgage companies, finance companies, building societies, credit unions are not covered); accrued interest not incorporated in interest-bearing assets and liabilities; valuation adjustments included in other liabilities.
  - Close coordination between ECCB and the single regulatory unit is crucial to improve coverage.
  - ECCB implemented a new reporting system for commercial banks addressing 2014 MFS mission recommendations; data reported in new format since 2020.
  - Antigua and Barbuda reports several Financial Access Survey series and indicators, including commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults and ATMs per 100,000 adults.
- Financial Sector Surveillance:
  - ECCB reports quarterly data for Antigua and Barbuda’s eighteen core and seven additional FSIs for deposit takers, covering commercial banks only.
  - Two additional FSIs for real estate markets are reported.
  - Financial Services Regulatory Commission reports credit unions’ balance sheets quarterly upon request.
- External Sector Statistics:
  - ECCB implemented new BOP survey forms and released revised BOP statistics consistent with BPM6.
  - BOP and IIP statistics are timely and regularly disseminated on the ECCB website, although data are irregularly provided to the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA).
  - Data coverage needs improvement, particularly to include international banks and international business companies.
  - Response rate to surveys of the nonfinancial private sector could be strengthened with a stronger legal basis for compilation.
  - With STA support, Statistics Division backcast the balance of payments for 2000-13 under a discontinued methodology; current account deficits narrowed and better fit BPM6 estimates for 2014 onwards.
  - Compilation of FDI flow data can be strengthened, particularly given information gaps on project spending.
- Data Standards and Quality:
  - Antigua and Barbuda participates in the IMF’s Enhanced GDDS (successor to GDDS); metadata is posted on the Fund’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board but is outdated for most data categories.
  - Data are yet to be disseminated under the e-GDDS.
  - A data ROSC mission was conducted in April 2007; the report was not published.

### Key data dissemination and reporting frequencies (As of October 2, 2023)
- Exchange Rates: Fixed rate; NA for latest observation, date received, frequency of data, frequency of reporting, frequency of publication.
- International Reserve Assets and Reserve Liabilities of the Monetary Authorities: Latest observation 07/2023; Date received 10/2023; Frequency of Data M; Frequency of Reporting M; Frequency of Publication M.
- Reserve/Base Money: Latest observation 07/2023; Date received 10/2023; Frequency M/M/M.
- Broad Money: Latest observation 07/2023; Date received 10/2023; Frequency M/M/M.
- Central Bank Balance Sheet: Latest observation 07/2023; Date received 10/2023; Frequency M/M/M.
- Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking System: Latest observation 07/2023; Date received 10/2023; Frequency M/M/M.
- Interest Rates: Latest observation 06/2023; Date received 10/2023; Frequency M/M/M.
- Consumer Price Index: Latest observation 07/2023; Date received 09/2023; Frequency M/M/M.
- Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing—General Government: Latest observation 06/2023; Date received 09/2023; Frequency Q/Q/Q.
- Stock of Central Government and Central Government-Guaranteed Debt: Latest observation 06/2023; Date received 09/2023; Frequency Q/Q/A.
- External Current Account Balance: Latest observation 2022; Date received 05/2023; Frequency A/A/A.
- Exports and Imports of Goods and Services: Latest observation 2022; Date received 05/2023; Frequency A/A/A.
- International Investment Position: Latest observation 2022; Date received 03/2023; Frequency A/A/A.
- GDP/GNP: Latest observation 2021; Date received 06/2022; Frequency A/A/A.
- Gross External Debt: Latest observation 6/2023; Date received 09/2023; Frequency Q/Q/A.

*Source: Antigua and Barbuda — Staff Report for the 2023 Article IV Consultation (Informational Annex), prepared by the Western Hemisphere Department (as of dates cited).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2024/english/1atgea2024001.pdf_