## 1gmbea2024003-print-pdf

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---

### Recent economic developments
- Growth and activity
  - Real GDP is estimated at 5.3 percent in 2023, supported by agriculture, services, telecommunication, and construction sectors.
  - Tourist arrivals in 2023 increased by 13.2 percent relative to 2022 but remained below pre-pandemic levels.
  - Remittance inflows increased from US$712.5 million in 2022 to US$746.8 million in 2023.
- Inflation and monetary conditions
  - Headline inflation: peaked at 18.5 percent (y-o-y) in September 2023; reported as 14.9 percent (y-o-y) in March 2024 and 11 percent in April 2024 in different passages. Headline inflation remains above the central bank’s target of 5 percent.
  - Central Bank policy rate: maintained at 17 percent since the September 2023 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, after a cumulative 700 basis points increase since March 2022.
  - With recent easing of inflation, the real interest rate is in slightly positive territory.
- Foreign exchange and reserves
  - New foreign exchange policy introduced December 2023 largely closed the wedge between official and parallel market exchange rates.
  - Exchange rate depreciated by about 5 percent until mid-February 2024 following the policy change.
  - Wedge with parallel market rate (about 10 percent in mid-2023) has broadly closed.
  - International reserves: above 4.5 months of imports; gross reserves declined from 5.4 months at end-2022 to 4.9 months at end-2023 but outperformed program targets.
- Financial sector and credit
  - Banks’ capital adequacy ratio: 28.3 percent at end-December 2023.
  - Banks’ liquidity ratio: 82.3 percent at end-December 2023.
  - Non-performing loans: 3.3 percent at end-December 2023.
  - Excess reserves: declined to 9.6 percent of reserve money at end-February 2024 from 16.3 percent in August 2023.
  - Credit to the private sector: expanded by 22.2 percent (y-o-y) in February 2024.
- Fiscal outturns and public debt
  - Domestic revenue collection in 2023 slightly overperformed target; budget support grants broadly in line with projections; project grants exceeded expectations.
  - Accelerated execution of donor-funded infrastructure projects frontloaded disbursements and caused the overall fiscal deficit to exceed projections by 1.2 percent of GDP.
  - Public debt: declined by 7.7 percentage points of GDP to 75.2 percent of GDP at end-2023.

### Program performance and IMF engagement
- Arrangement and access
  - On January 12, 2024, the IMF Executive Board approved a 36-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement with access of 120 percent of quota (SDR 74.64 million).
- Disbursements and review
  - Staff recommends completion of the first ECF review and the associated financing assurances review, which would make available SDR 8.29 million (13.33 percent of quota).
  - A disbursement of 8.29 million (about US$10.95 million) brought the total disbursement under the arrangement to about SDR16.6 million (US$21.9 million).
  - Disbursement allocation: SDR8.29 million following completion of the first ECF review; SDR3.32 million to be on-lent for budget support.
- Performance metrics
  - All 11 end-December 2023 quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) and indicative targets (ITs) were met.
  - Structural benchmarks: four out of five SBs were met; the fifth SB (governance diagnostic report) was missed and is proposed to be rephased to end-August 2024.
  - Obligations under Article VIII on exchange arrangements are met.

### Outlook and risks
- Macroeconomic outlook
  - Real GDP growth projections: 2024: 5.8 percent; medium term: stabilize around 5 percent.
  - Inflation (average, percent change): 2023: 17.0; 2024: 14.4; 2025: 9.8; 2026: 6.6; 2027–2029: 5.0 (each year).
  - Fiscal deficit projections: 2024: 2.7 percent of GDP; medium term: 0.5 percent of GDP.
  - Public debt (percent of GDP): 2023: 75.2; 2024: 67.0; 2025: 61.7; 2026: 58.1; 2027: 53.8; 2028: 50.3; 2029: 46.6.
  - Gross official reserves (months of prospective imports): 2023: 4.9; 2024: 4.7; 2025: 4.6; 2026: 4.4; 2027: 4.3; 2028: 4.3; 2029: 4.0.
- Key external balance projections (selected)
  - Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2023: -8.6; 2024: -4.4; 2025: -3.0; 2026: -2.3; 2027: -1.7; 2028: -1.4; 2029: -1.0.
- Risks (tilted to the downside)
  - External: escalation/spread of conflicts (Gaza and Israel; Russia–Ukraine), commodity price volatility, abrupt global slowdown reducing tourist arrivals and remittances.
  - Domestic: persistently high inflation causing socio-political tensions; more frequent and severe natural disasters.
  - Upside: expected benefits from a compact with the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC).

### Policy discussions and recommendations
- Monetary and exchange rate policy
  - CBG to maintain a tight monetary stance; stand ready to tighten further if inflation easing reverses.
  - Objective: anchor inflation expectations and ensure inflation steadily declines to the CBG’s medium-term target of 5 percent.
  - Policy instruments: monetary policy rate, issuance of CBG bills, deposit window, reserve requirement ratio changes.
  - Exchange rate: consolidate gains from the December 2023 forex policy; maintain a market-based exchange rate and smooth functioning of the forex market; finalize and approve a forex intervention policy and limit interventions to alleviating excess market volatility.
- Fiscal policy and debt management
  - 2024 fiscal framework anchored on the approved budget; 2024 overall fiscal deficit target: 2.7 percent of GDP.
  - Revenue mobilization: domestic revenue envisaged to increase by 1 ppt of GDP in 2024 (0.5 ppt tax revenue; 0.5 ppt non-tax revenue).
  - GRA performance: Q1-2024 GRA revenue up about 30 percent in nominal Dalasi terms relative to Q1-2023; monthly collection of GMD1 billion in March 2024.
  - Revenue measures: single window platform operational; e-tracking of transit trucks; Digital Tracing System (DTS) started; digital weigh bridge completed; rental tax compliance system commenced.
  - Expenditure control: reprioritizing goods and services and transfers to accommodate OIC summit spending; require MDAs to submit yearly cash needs projections through IFMIS by September 2024 (new SB for end-September 2024).
  - Debt vulnerability reduction priorities:
    - adhere to the agreed borrowing plan;
    - focus on grants and concessional loans;
    - limit fiscal risks from SOEs and PPPs;
    - implement a strong medium-term fiscal framework.
- Financial sector, inclusion, and safeguards
  - CBG to cease quasi-fiscal operations and limit lending to government entities and SOEs to cash-flow purposes and not beyond 10 percent of the previous year’s tax revenue; such lending at market terms.
  - Bank capitalization: require augmentation of banks’ minimum regulatory capital by GMD100 million by end-September 2025 (new SB for end-September 2025) and an additional GMD100 million each year thereafter to reach GMD500 million by end-2027.
  - Financial inclusion targets: provide access to the formal financial system for 70 percent of the adult population by 2025.
  - Continue quarterly stress tests and revamp the Credit Reference Bureau (select developer for replacement).
  - Safeguards assessment: shortfalls in CBG safeguards noted; recommend legal reforms to strengthen CBG mandate and autonomy and cease new quasi-fiscal operations.
- Structural reforms, governance, and climate resilience
  - Anti-corruption bill adopted; revised draft AML/CFT law completed and aligned with FATF standards.
  - Governance diagnostic report: missed SB for end-April; report discussed in Cabinet; action plan being prepared; missed SB proposed to be rephased to end-August 2024.
  - PFM reforms: roadmap for program-based budgeting for 2025 draft budget (SB end-December 2024); extend IFMIS to all new donor and government-funded projects (new SB end-June 2025).
  - SOE reforms: performance contracts signed with four additional SOEs; publish audited financial accounts up to 2023 for all SOEs; Cabinet authorized partial or full privatization of GAMCEL (target end-March 2025).
  - Climate: adopt climate mitigation and adaptation policies; Gambia’s Long-Term Climate-Neutral Development Strategy 2050; strengthen public finance and investment management to attract climate finance.

### Program monitoring, conditionality, and structural benchmarks (selected)
- Program monitoring: semi-annual program reviews based on QPCs, ITs, and SBs.
- Review schedule (selected):
  - Second program review based on end-June 2024 targets; expected on or after September 30, 2024.
  - Third program review based on end-December 2024 targets; expected on or after March 31, 2025.
  - Fourth program review based on end-March and end-June 2025 targets; expected on or after September 30, 2025.
- Selected structural benchmarks and timing (as reported):
  - Set up single window platform for customs administration — End-February 2024 — Met.
  - Sign performance contracts with four additional SOEs — End-February 2024 — Met.
  - Prepare revised draft AML/CFT law aligned with FATF standards — End-March 2024 — Met.
  - Transmit Ombudsman reports for 2021 and 2022 to National Assembly and publish — End-March 2024 — Met.
  - Publish governance diagnostic report and finalize implementation plan — End-April 2024 — Not Met (proposed rephased to End-August 2024).
  - Adopt revised GIEPA act with streamlined tax incentives — End-June 2024 (proposed to be postponed to End-September 2024).
  - Ensure all MDAs submit yearly cash plans through IFMIS module — New SB End-September 2024.
  - Adopt revised National Audit Office Act — New SB End-October 2024.
  - Complete partial or full privatization of GAMCEL — End-March 2025.
  - Require augmentation of banks’ capital by GMD100 million — New SB End-September 2025.

### External sector, balance of payments, and financing needs (selected figures)
- Goods and services (levels, US$ millions) series highlights: Goods and services: -561.7, -686.4, -739.8, -760.5, -722.2, -719.5, -750.6, -764.6, -795.2, -827.0.
- Exports, f.o.b. (US$ millions): 52.3, 98.7, 98.7, 119.3, 120.9, 138.1, 155.3, 173.8, 194.6, 217.1.
- Remittances (US$ millions): 462.0, 532.4, 488.0, 570.2, 570.2, 598.7, 646.6, 695.3, 735.8, 778.0.
- Capital and financial account (levels, US$ millions): Capital account: 82.7, 120.9, 159.9, 141.6, 139.3, 142.5, 144.6, 144.4, 145.1, 145.9. Financial account: -102.2, -58.2, 0.2, 13.6, -45.7, -58.1, -84.5, -46.1, -35.1, -79.9.
- Gross international reserves (US$ millions): 454.7, 412.3, 474.3, 437.5, 476.6, 498.6, 506.5, 527.0, 564.3, 566.3.
- External financing needs (Millions of U.S. dollars): Total financing requirement: -212.0 (2024), -227.6 (2025), -210.3 (2026), -205.6 (2027). Total financing sources: 128.6 (2024), 144.2 (2025), 126.7 (2026), 175.6 (2027).
- Identified financing after sources (Millions of U.S. dollars): 83.3 (2024), 83.4 (2025), 83.5 (2026), 30.0 (2027).
  - Budget support (grants): 50.0 (2024), 50.1 (2025), 50.2 (2026), 30.0 (2027).
  - IMF disbursements: 33.3 (2024), 33.3 (2025), 33.3 (2026), 0.0 (2027).

### Data provision, capacity development, and reporting
- Data commitments:
  - Weekly provision of key monetary sector indicators, international reserves, and government net domestic financing.
  - Monthly provision for Statement of Government Operations (SGO) and inflation data.
  - Quarterly GDP dissemination produced with IMF TA; GDP rebasing for 2019–22 estimated dissemination date Q1-2026.
- Reporting schedules (selected):
  - Daily data on reserve money transmitted weekly within five business days of the end of each week.
  - Monthly balance sheet of the CBG and consolidated bank balance sheet transmitted within four weeks of the end of each month.
  - Detailed reserve statement with end-month data transmitted within seven days after the end of each month; end-week reserve statements within five business days.
  - MoFEA to forward quarterly public enterprises cash flow data within eight weeks of the end of each quarter.
- Capacity development focus: revenue administration, public financial and debt management, forex policy, financial sector supervision, and statistics.

*Source: THE GAMBIA — FIRST REVIEW UNDER THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY ARRANGEMENT, REQUEST FOR MODIFICATION OF A PERFORMANCE CRITERION, AND FINANCING ASSURANCES REVIEW (June 6, 2024).  Excerpts from 1gmbea2024003-print-pdf.*

### 8.29 million (about US$10.95 million) bringing the total disbursement under the arrangement to

### 1gmbea2024003-print-pdf - 8.29 million (about US$10.95 million) bringing the total disbursement under the arrangement to

### Recent economic developments
- Economic growth
  - Real GDP is estimated at 5.3 percent in 2023, supported by agriculture, services, telecommunication, and construction sectors.
  - Tourist arrivals in 2023 increased by 13.2 percent relative to 2022 but remained below pre-pandemic levels.
  - Remittance inflows increased from US$712.5 million in 2022 to US$746.8 million in 2023.
- Inflation and monetary conditions
  - Headline inflation eased from a peak of 18.5 percent (year-on-year) in September 2023 to 11 percent in April 2024 in one passage; another passage reports headline inflation declined to 14.9 percent (y-o-y) in March 2024. Headline inflation remains well above the central bank’s target of 5 percent.
  - The Central Bank of The Gambia has maintained its policy rate at 17 percent since the September 2023 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, after a cumulative 700 basis points increase since March 2022.
  - With recent easing of inflation, the real interest rate is currently in slightly positive territory.
- Foreign exchange and reserves
  - A new foreign exchange policy introduced in December 2023 helped largely close the wedge between the official and parallel market exchange rates.
  - The exchange rate depreciated by about 5 percent until mid-February 2024 following the policy change.
  - The wedge with the parallel market rate, which stood at about 10 percent in mid-2023, has broadly closed.
  - International reserves remain at a comfortable level of above 4.5 months of imports; gross reserves declined from 5.4 months of prospective imports at end-2022 to 4.9 months at end-2023 but outperformed program targets.
- Financial sector and credit
  - Banks’ capital adequacy and liquidity ratios were 28.3 and 82.3 percent, respectively, at end-December 2023.
  - Non-performing loans were 3.3 percent at end-December 2023.
  - Excess reserves declined to 9.6 percent of reserve money at end-February 2024 from a recent peak of 16.3 percent in August 2023.
  - Credit to the private sector expanded by 22.2 percent (y-o-y) in February 2024, driven mainly by construction and trade sectors.
- Fiscal outturns and public debt
  - Domestic revenue collection in 2023 slightly overperformed the target, driven by higher tax revenue collection; budget support grants broadly in line with projections; project grants exceeded expectations.
  - Accelerated execution of donors-funded infrastructure projects led to frontloading of disbursements and caused the overall fiscal deficit to exceed projections by 1.2 percent of GDP.
  - Public debt declined by 7.7 percentage points of GDP to 75.2 percent of GDP at end-2023.

### Program performance and IMF engagement
- Program arrangement
  - On January 12, 2024, the IMF Executive Board approved a 36-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement with access of 120 percent of quota (SDR 74.64 million).
- Disbursements and review
  - Staff recommends completion of the first ECF review and the associated financing assurances review, which would make available to The Gambia the equivalent of SDR 8.29 million (13.33 percent of quota).
  - A disbursement of 8.29 million (about US$10.95 million) brought the total disbursement under the arrangement to about SDR16.6 million (US$21.9 million).
- Program performance metrics
  - All end-December 2023 quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) and indicative targets (ITs) were met.
  - Four out of five structural benchmarks (SBs) were met; the fifth SB was missed and is being followed up by the Cabinet.
  - The fiscal deficit and public debt exceeded projections due to accelerated execution of donors-funded infrastructure projects, especially for the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit held during May 4–5, 2024.

### Outlook and risks
- Near-term outlook
  - Economic recovery is strengthening while inflation is progressively decelerating albeit remaining high.
  - The fiscal policy in 2024 remains anchored on the approved budget.
- Downside risks
  - The outlook is subject to downside risks from the repercussions of global and regional conflicts, including international commodity price volatility, lower tourist arrivals, and weak remittance inflows.
  - Strong external buffers are needed to prepare for the upcoming expiration of debt service deferrals.

### Policy discussions and recommendations
- Monetary and exchange rate policy
  - The central bank has appropriately maintained a tight monetary policy stance to fight inflationary pressures.
  - The authorities are encouraged to make full use of the central bank’s policy toolkit to fight inflation, and continue to ensure a market-based exchange rate and smooth functioning of the foreign exchange market.
- Fiscal policy and debt management
  - Fiscal policy in 2024 will remain anchored on the approved budget despite unanticipated spending pressures from hosting the OIC summit.
  - Efforts to bolster domestic revenue mobilization and reprioritize spending should continue.
  - To reduce debt vulnerabilities, it will be critical to:
    - adhere to the agreed borrowing plan;
    - focus on grants and concessional loans;
    - limit fiscal risks from SOEs and PPPs;
    - implement a strong medium-term fiscal framework.
- Structural reforms, governance, and climate resilience
  - Authorities are encouraged to build on recent progress and pursue further structural reforms.
  - The adoption of the anti-corruption bill by the National Assembly was highlighted as an important milestone.
  - Further progress is needed on enhancing governance and improving the business environment to foster a strong recovery and inclusive growth.
  - Adopting strong climate-related policies would be essential to build The Gambia’s resilience to climate risks.
- Public financial management and SOEs
  - Reforms are advancing on revenue administration and public financial management, accompanied by coordinated capacity development support from development partners.
  - Performance contracts were recently signed with four additional SOEs; the Cabinet authorized the launch of a partial or full privatization of GAMCEL.

### Mission and staff
- Mission timing and composition
  - The mission took place in Banjul during April 23–May 5, 2024.
  - The mission comprised Messrs. Razafimahefa (head), Al-Sadiq, Mss. Aoyagi, Hesse-Triballi (all AFR), Mr. Garcia-Huitron (FAD), and Messrs. Tong (SPR), Gitton (resident representative), and Mendy (local economist). Mr. Cham (senior advisor, OEDAE) participated in the meetings.
- Principal interlocutors
  - Meetings included: Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs, Seedy Keita; Minister of Public Service, Administrative Reforms and Policy, Baboucarr Bouy; Minister of Environment, Climate Change and Natural Resources, Rohey John Manjang; Minister of Trade, Industry, Regional Integration and Employment, Baboucarr Ousmaila Joof; Governor of the Central Bank of The Gambia, Buah Saidy; Commissioner General of the Gambia Revenue Authority, Yankuba Darboe; National Auditor General, Modou Ceesay; other senior government and central bank officials; and representatives of the private sector and civil society organizations.

*Source: THE GAMBIA — FIRST REVIEW UNDER THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY ARRANGEMENT, REQUEST FOR MODIFICATION OF A PERFORMANCE CRITERION, AND FINANCING ASSURANCES REVIEW (June 6, 2024).*

### 10.      Program performance has been satisfactory (Tables 12, 13). All 11 end-December 2023

### 10.      Program performance has been satisfactory (Tables 12, 13)

### Program performance and structural benchmarks
- All 11 end-December 2023 quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) and indicative targets (ITs) were met.
- Overall fiscal deficit and public debt exceeded projections due to accelerated execution of donors-funded infrastructure projects, including for the OIC summit.
- Obligations under Article VIII on exchange arrangements are met.
- Four structural benchmarks (SBs) for end-February and end-March were met.
- The fifth SB at end-April, related to the governance diagnostic report, was missed. The report was discussed extensively at the Cabinet and the authorities are preparing an action plan for implementation of its recommendations.
- The missed SB is proposed to be rephased to end-August 2024 (Table 14).

### Outlook and risks
- Medium-term macroeconomic outlook remains broadly unchanged relative to that envisaged at the ECF program approval.
- Real GDP growth projections:
  - 2024: 5.8 percent
  - Medium term: stabilize around 5 percent
- Inflation is projected to decline gradually in 2024, reflecting tight domestic monetary policy and expected decline in some key global commodity prices.
- Forex reserves, in months of imports, are projected to remain at comfortable levels in the medium term, supported by disbursements from the IMF and other development partners.
- Fiscal deficit projections:
  - 2024: 2.7 percent of GDP
  - Medium term: 0.5 percent of GDP
- Public debt projected to decline steadily in the medium term.

- Downside risks (tilted to the downside) include:
  - Escalation or spread of the conflict in Gaza and Israel, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and other regional conflicts leading to global commodity price volatility and supply chain disruptions.
  - Abrupt global slowdown reducing tourist arrivals and remittance inflows, intensifying inflation and forex pressures.
  - Domestic risks: persistently high price levels causing socio-political tensions and fiscal pressures.
  - More frequent and severe natural disasters damaging infrastructure and livelihoods, adversely affecting inflation, growth, and fiscal and external accounts.
- Upside: expected benefits from a compact with the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), with a threshold program under implementation and a compact program in the medium term.

### Key macroeconomic projections and indicators (selected from Text Table 2)
- Real GDP growth (percent): 2023 Prel. 5.3; 2024 Baseline 5.8; 2025 5.8; 2026 5.0; 2027 5.0; 2028 5.0; 2029 5.0
- Consumer price inflation (average, percent change): 2023 17.0; 2024 14.4; 2025 9.8; 2026 6.6; 2027 5.0; 2028 5.0; 2029 5.0
- Tax revenue (percent of GDP): 2023 9.4; 2024 9.9; 2025 10.2; 2026 10.7; 2027 11.0; 2028 11.3; 2029 12.6
- Primary balance (percent of GDP): 2023 -1.6; 2024 0.2; 2025 2.2; 2026 2.1; 2027 1.5; 2028 1.2; 2029 1.0
- Domestic primary balance (percent of GDP): 2023 -0.2; 2024 0.6; 2025 1.7; 2026 1.7; 2027 2.1; 2028 2.3; 2029 2.3
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2023 -8.6; 2024 -4.4; 2025 -3.0; 2026 -2.3; 2027 -1.7; 2028 -1.4; 2029 -1.0
- Public debt (percent of GDP): 2023 75.2; 2024 67.0; 2025 61.7; 2026 58.1; 2027 53.8; 2028 50.3; 2029 46.6
- PV of public debt (percent of GDP): 2023 61.8; 2024 55.4; 2025 51.4; 2026 48.6; 2027 45.4; 2028 42.5; 2029 39.2
- Gross official reserves (months of prospective imports): 2023 4.9; 2024 4.7; 2025 4.6; 2026 4.4; 2027 4.3; 2028 4.3; 2029 4.0

A. Addressing inflationary and foreign exchange pressures

### Monetary policy stance and inflation targeting
- The Central Bank of The Gambia (CBG) intends to keep a tight monetary policy stance to ensure inflation declines (MEFP ¶9 and Text Figure 4).
- The CBG should stand ready to tighten further if inflation easing reverses; tightening would contain domestic aggregate demand and limit second-round effects from volatile global commodity prices.
- Objective: anchor inflation expectations and ensure inflation steadily declines to the CBG’s medium-term target of 5 percent.
- Essential to keep the real interest rate firmly in positive territory and to monitor and address any excess liquidity in the banking system.
- Policy instruments: monetary policy rate, issuance of CBG bills, deposit window, and reserve requirement ratio changes.

### Exchange rate policy and forex market
- The CBG committed to implementing the recently introduced forex policy to prevent reoccurrence of forex shortages (MEFP ¶10).
- Policy priorities:
  - Consolidate gains from the new policy.
  - Maintain an exchange rate that fully reflects market forces.
  - Ensure smooth functioning of the forex market.
- The wedge between official and parallel forex markets has broadly closed (Text Figure 5).
- With the high tourism season ending and expected decline in forex supply, the policy can incentivize holders of forex to support supply.
- Recommendation: finalize and approve a forex intervention policy and limit forex market interventions (forex sale) to alleviating excess market volatility to safeguard forex reserves.

### CBG financial position and banking sector resilience
- To prevent financial risks to the CBG, the central government provided guarantees for all existing loans extended by the CBG to general government entities outside the central government.
- CBG should cease quasi-fiscal operations, including with SOEs, and provide lending to government entities and SOEs only for cash flow purposes and not beyond 10 percent of the previous year’s tax revenue as per law; such lending will be at market terms.
- Regulatory capital augmentation for banks:
  - Require augmentation of banks’ minimum regulatory capital by GMD100 million by end-September 2025 (new SB for end-September 2025).
  - Require an additional GMD100 million each year thereafter to reach a total level of capital of GMD500 million by end-2027.

### Financial deepening and inclusion
- Implementing the National Financial Inclusion Strategy, leveraging:
  - Deployment of a new payment system by the CBG.
  - Recent launch of the capital market.
  - Expansion of mobile money and fintech.
  - Expansion of the women enterprise and youth development funds.
- Target: provide access to the formal financial system for 70 percent of the adult population by 2025, including vulnerable groups, women, and youth.
- CBG to continue quarterly stress tests following the 2022 exercise.
- Authorities intend to revamp the credit reference bureau (CRB) and select a developer for its replacement.

B. Building fiscal resilience and reducing debt vulnerabilities

### 2024 fiscal framework and revenue measures
- 2024 overall fiscal deficit target remains unchanged at 2.7 percent of GDP (aligned with the approved 2024 budget).
- Other fiscal parameters unchanged, including domestic primary balance and net domestic borrowing.
- Authorities taking measures to enhance revenue collection and restrain spending.

- Revenue targets and recent performance:
  - Domestic revenue envisaged to increase by 1 ppt of GDP in 2024: 0.5 ppt from tax revenue and 0.5 ppt from non-tax revenue.
  - GRA revenue collection in Q1-2024 increased by about 30 percent in nominal Dalasi terms relative to Q1-2023 and exceeded the target.
  - GRA reached monthly collection of GMD1 billion in March 2024.

- Revenue measures being implemented:
  - Single window platform operational; e-tracking of transit trucks started.
  - Digital Tracing System (DTS) started.
  - Digital weigh bridge completed at the seaport.
  - Implementation of the rental tax compliance system commenced.
  - All twelve commercial banks audited from Q4-2023 to Q1-2024; GRA plans to audit all GSM operators during 2024 (to fulfill SB for end-September 2024).
  - Domestic fuel prices for Diesel increased by 85 percent since mid-2020; authorities aim to continue reducing fuel revenue losses and commit to not reduce domestic fuel prices when global oil prices decrease to recover past subsidies in the future.
  - Non-tax revenue will be supported by a tranche from Africa50's asset recycling program; authorities will bolster collection of administrative fees that have not been adjusted for several years.

### Expenditure control and cash management
- Authorities are reprioritizing spending in goods and services and transfers to accommodate unanticipated spending pressures from hosting the OIC summit.
- Aim to align expenditure with available resources, strengthen expenditure control, and enforce cash management by requiring MDAs to submit yearly cash needs projections through the Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS) module by September 2024 (new SB for end-September 2024).

### Medium-term fiscal framework and debt path
- Medium-term fiscal framework aims to reduce debt vulnerabilities; frontloading of disbursements from donors’ infrastructure loans in 2023 will reduce future disbursements under existing contracts with unchanged future borrowing plans.
- Debt reduction path in the medium term remains in line with previous projections (Text Figure 7).
- External borrowing for major projects (Text Table 3) shows revised totals between ECF Approval and First ECF Review (project totals: ECF Approval Total 174.7; First ECF Review Total 175.8 in Millions of USD).

### Revenue mobilization agenda and tax policy reforms
- Authorities preparing to adopt a domestic revenue mobilization strategy (SB for end-September 2024).
- Procuring an Integrated Tax Administration System (ITAS) through World Bank funding.
- Preparing an IT system for excisable goods, fuel marking, and revenue assurance for mobile network operators.
- Plan to fully digitalize VAT collection with smart invoice technology.
- Enhancing rental property taxation and creating a rental property database (new SB for end-June 2025).
- Tax withholding of CIT to be applied on contractors for all donor-funded projects.
- GRA developing its Corporate Strategic Plan for 2025–2029 and completing automation of its internal audit.
- Cabinet will adopt a revised GIEPA act with streamlined tax incentives (SB proposed to be postponed to end-September 2024); revisions include restricting coverage to priority sectors, eliminating extensions of SICs based on expansion and re-investment, requiring SIC holders to be compliant with local tax obligations, strengthening monitoring, and cancelling non-performing SICs.

### Debt sustainability and recommended focus
- Public debt is deemed sustainable over the medium term, but risks of external and overall debt distress remain high.
- PV of total public debt projected to decline below its benchmark of 55 percent of GDP in 2025.
- Recommended priorities to reduce debt vulnerabilities:
  - Focus on grants and highly concessional loans.
  - Implement a strong medium-term fiscal framework.
  - Bolster domestic revenue mobilization.
  - Strictly adhere to the agreed external borrowing plan.
  - Ensure SOEs and PPPs do not give rise to fiscal risks and contingent liabilities.
  - Build strong external buffers in preparation for the upcoming expiration of debt service deferrals.

C. Advancing PFM, governance, and SOEs reforms

### Public financial management (PFM) and governance reforms
- Roadmap for program-based budgeting implementation and roll-out in pilot ministries for the 2025 draft budget to be approved by the Cabinet (SB for end-December 2024).
- Authorities intend to extend IFMIS use to all new donor and government-funded projects (new SB for end-June 2025).
- Prioritize investment decisions by developing a pipeline of appraised investment projects based on the Gambia Strategic Review Board (GSRB) prioritization tool.
- Collaborate with the National Assembly to accelerate adoption of the PFM Act and PPP bill.
- These reforms aim to strengthen budget processes, accountability, and efficiency of public spending, and reduce governance and corruption vulnerabilities.

### SOE sector reforms
- Steps to transform SOEs from fiscal burdens to providers of fiscal resources:
  - Performance contracts signed with four additional SOEs.
  - Aim to improve operational and financial situations of SOEs and reduce reliance on government subsidies.
  - Audited financial accounts up to 2023 of all SOEs will be published on their websites, including cost of services undertaken at the government’s request.
  - Authorities will finalize and enact regulations of the recently passed SOEs Act and regulations on the GPPA procurement act (new SB for end-December 2024).
  - Partial or full privatization of GAMCEL expected to be completed by end-March 2025 (SB for end-March 2025).

*Source: 1gmbea2024003-print-pdf - 10.      Program performance has been satisfactory (Tables 12, 13).*

### 23.      Further progress in governance and anti-corruption initiatives remains critical (MEFP

### 23.      Further progress in governance and anti-corruption initiatives remains critical (MEFP ¶17)

### Governance and anti-corruption — progress and planned measures
- Progress made:
  - The anti-corruption bill has been adopted.
  - A revised draft law on AML/CFT has been completed and aligned with the international AML/CFT standards as set up by the Financial Action Task Force.
  - The Ombudsman reports for 2021 and 2022 have been transmitted to the National Assembly and published on the website.
- Planned/legal/institutional actions:
  - A revised National Audit Office Act will be adopted by the Cabinet to strengthen its institutional independence, enhance the enforceability of its requests on auditees, and support the effective implementation of audit recommendations (new SB for end-October 2024).
  - A study will be prepared to rationalize and consolidate subvented agencies with MDAs (SB end-December 2024), with the aim of improving the efficiency of government institutions and reducing burdens on the budget.
  - Authorities committed to implementing further areas of reforms proposed in the governance diagnostic report.
  - The reform monitoring committee is following up regularly on the implementation of key policy measures.

### Key recommendations and emphasis
- Further progress remains critical, including on:
  - Effectiveness of the National Audit Office.
  - Adoption and implementation of the AML/CFT law.
  - Reforms of subvented agencies.
- Strengthening PFM, including cash management and investment prioritization, to reduce fiscal pressures while supporting long-term development.
- Transforming SOEs from fiscal burdens to providers of fiscal resources and carrying out this vision swiftly.

### Supporting inclusive growth and climate change (MEFP ¶18–19)
- Business environment and inclusion:
  - Authorities will set up a digital platform for business registration (SB for end-December 2024).
  - The Cabinet will adopt a land policy to facilitate and secure access to land and finance (new SB for end-September 2025).
  - Completion of the expansion of the social registry to the Banjul and Kombo areas to improve targeting of social programs (SB for end-December 2024).
- Climate resilience:
  - The Gambia’s Long-Term Climate-Neutral Development Strategy 2050 aims at realizing The Gambia’s commitment to meet commitments under the Paris Agreement.
  - The Gambia is highly vulnerable to coastal erosion, flooding, drought, and storms.
  - Recommendations include adopting climate mitigation and adaptation policies, reforms of fossil fuel subsidies, climate resilient infrastructure, and strengthening public finance and investment management to attract more climate finance funds.

### Data issues and capacity development (MEFP ¶20 and data section)
- Data provision and improvements:
  - Authorities committed to continuing weekly provision of key indicators related to the monetary sector, international reserves, and the government’s net domestic financing.
  - Monthly provision committed for the Statement of Government Operations (SGO) and inflation data.
  - With IMF TA support, authorities have produced and disseminated quarterly GDP, which is broadly adequate for surveillance.
  - The Gambia is an e-GDDS country; GBoS continues to work on the rebasing of GDP for 2019-22 with an estimated dissemination date in Q1-2026.
  - Authorities will endeavor to enhance compilation, reconciliation, coverage, and dissemination of SGOs, debt data, financial sector data (including non-bank), and external sector statistics.
  - Authorities agreed to compiling/reporting to STA additional indicators of financial inclusion under the financial access survey (FAS).
- Capacity development focus:
  - CD will continue to focus on strengthening revenue administration, public financial and debt management, forex policy, financial sector supervision, and statistics.
  - Authorities to make full use of extensive TA support and presence of resident advisors at the MoFEA, GRA, and CBG, and implement recommendations from recent CD missions.

### Program modalities, conditionality, financing, and safeguards
- Program monitoring and financing:
  - Program performance monitored through semi-annual program reviews based on quantitative performance criteria, indicative targets, and structural benchmarks.
  - Disbursement of SDR8.29 million following completion of the first ECF program review will help fill the BoP financing gap; SDR3.32 million will be on-lent for budget support.
- Updated conditionality and timelines:
  - Authorities requested postponing from end-June 2024 to end-September 2024 the SB on adoption by the Cabinet of a revised GIEPA act to allow incorporating inputs from key stakeholders.
  - End-June and end-December 2024 QPC floor on net international reserves (NIR) proposed to be adjusted upward to allow for higher reserves accumulation, such that gross reserves coverage remains at 4 months of imports over the medium term.
  - End-March and end-June 2025 QPCs and ITs set for the fourth ECF program review.
  - Seven new SBs proposed for end-September 2024, end-December 2024, end-June 2025, and end-September 2025 on revenue administration, PFM, governance, and the financial sector.
- Program risks and mitigation:
  - Risks: Protraction of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, potential global slowdown and trade disruption, regional political instability and insecurity.
  - Mitigation advice: Bolster domestic revenue mobilization, embrace spending restraint, and strengthen internal and external policy buffers.
- Capacity to repay and burden sharing:
  - The Gambia’s capacity to repay remains adequate despite high exposure (Table 10).
  - Repayments to the IMF will peak at 4.97 percent of government revenues and 27.52 percent of total debt services in 2030.
  - The program is fully financed with firm commitments in place for the remainder of the program period (Table 7).
  - Authorities engaged in discussions with Libya on a disputed loan; latest meeting held in October 2023.
  - Regarding arrears to Venezuela, virtual meetings held in early 2022 and a mission is expected in The Gambia.
- Safeguards assessment:
  - Update noted shortfalls in the CBG’s safeguards framework, including participation in quasi-fiscal operations, gaps in governance arrangements, and continued capacity challenges.
  - Assessment recommends legal reforms to further strengthen the CBG’s mandate and autonomy and ceasing financing new quasi-fiscal operations.

### Staff appraisal — macroeconomic assessment and policy advice
- Political and reform context:
  - The Gambia continues democratic and economic reforms; Truth, Reconciliation and Reparations Commission ongoing.
  - Security sector reform not completed and revision of the Constitution pending.
- Macroeconomic outlook and recent performance:
  - Recovery strengthening; supported by construction, tourism, and agriculture.
  - Inflation progressively decelerated but remains elevated.
  - 2023 fiscal outturns reflected good revenue performance; capital spending pressures weighed on the overall fiscal balance.
  - New forex policy in December 2023 helped largely close the wedge between official and parallel market exchange rates.
  - Gross reserves stood at 4.9 months at end-2023.
- Program performance:
  - Performance under the ECF-supported program was satisfactory; all 11 end-December 2023 QPCs and ITs were met.
  - Fiscal deficit and public debt exceeded projections due to accelerated execution of donors-funded infrastructure projects, especially for the OIC summit.
  - Four end-February 2024 and end-March SBs were completed; the end-April SB on the governance diagnostic report was missed.
  - Staff advises prompt finalization of an action plan to implement recommendations in the governance diagnostic report.
- Policy advice to the CBG and authorities:
  - CBG should be ready to tighten monetary policy if inflation deceleration reverses and pursue a market-determined exchange rate.
  - Consolidate gains from the new forex policy and ensure smooth functioning of the forex market to avoid wedges between official and parallel rates.
  - Intensify implementation of the National Financial Inclusion Strategy and strengthen the financial sector’s supervisory and regulatory framework.
  - Authorities to bolster revenue mobilization and reprioritize spending to address OIC summit logistical costs while keeping the overall fiscal deficit unchanged from the approved budget.
  - To reduce debt vulnerabilities: continue focusing on grants and highly concessional loans, limit fiscal risks from SOEs and PPPs, and implement a strong medium-term fiscal framework supported by strong domestic revenue mobilization and public financial management.
  - Promote business creation and formal sector employment by facilitating and securing access to land and finance, and complete expansion of the social registry to improve targeting of social programs.
  - Adopt climate mitigation and adaptation policies, including reforms of fossil fuel subsidies and climate resilient infrastructure, and strengthen public finance and investment management to attract climate finance.

*Source: MEFP excerpts and staff appraisal as presented in the provided PDF content.*

### 42.      In view of The Gambian authorities’ satisfactory performance under the ECF-supported

### 1gmbea2024003-print-pdf - 42.      In view of The Gambian authorities’ satisfactory performance under the ECF-supported

### Program review recommendation
- In view of The Gambian authorities’ satisfactory performance under the ECF-supported program, and on the basis of the authorities’ policy commitments for the remainder of the arrangement, staff recommends the completion of the first review under the ECF arrangement and the associated financing assurances review.

### Recent economic developments (highlights from Figure 1 and narrative)
- Economic recovery strengthened, supported by tourism and other sectors.
- Private credit broadly stabilized around its post-pandemic high.
- Inflation is progressively easing but remains elevated, driven primarily by high global commodity prices.
- As the central bank tightened monetary policy, T-bill rates edged higher in 2023.
- Gross official reserves (in months of next year's imports) improved after declining in the first half of 2023.
- Public debt declined, as fiscal indicators improved despite pressures from global tensions.
- Annual data is updated until 2023, monthly data until February 2024.

### Fiscal sector developments (Figure 2 and related tables)
- Grants and domestic revenue increased in 2023.
- Current spending was reduced despite multiple pressures, but capital spending increased.
- The overall fiscal balance improved as a result of good revenue and domestic spending restraint.
- Total public debt-to-GDP ratio fell in 2023 due to a large drop in domestic financing.

Key fiscal figures (from Table 1 and Table 2a/2b):
- GDP at constant prices (2024 Proj.): 5.3 (Note: table lists series 2025–2029; earlier rows show full series 4.9 5.6 5.3 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.0 5.0 5.0)
- Consumer prices (average) series includes values: 11.5 17.2 17.0 15.9 14.4 9.8 6.6 5.0 5.0 5.0
- Domestic revenue (percent of GDP): 11.8 12.0 12.1 13.0 13.1 12.9 13.1 13.5 13.7 14.8
- Grants (percent of GDP): 5.5 7.8 7.9 7.0 7.0 6.4 6.0 5.1 4.8 4.5
- Total expenditures (percent of GDP): 22.3 22.0 23.6 22.7 22.8 19.6 19.5 19.1 19.0 19.8
- Net lending (+)/borrowing (–) (percent of GDP): -4.9 -2.5 -3.7 -2.7 -2.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5
- Total public debt (percent of GDP): 82.9 71.8 75.2 65.2 67.0 61.7 58.1 53.8 50.3 46.6
- External public debt (millions of US$): 1,029.3 1,032.0 1,120.1 1,084.2 1,150.9 1,172.6 1,185.5 1,147.0 1,128.6 1,149.1

Selected central government nominal flows (Table 2a, millions of local currency):
- Revenue (2023 Act.): 29,513; Revenue (2024 Proj.): 34,939
- Domestic revenue (2023 Act.): 17,842; Domestic revenue (2024 Proj.): 22,760
- Grants (2023 Act.): 11,671; Grants (2024 Proj.): 12,178
- Expenditures (2023 Act.): 34,925; Expenditures (2024 Proj.): 39,690
- Net acquisition of nonfinancial assets (2023 Act.): 16,405; (2024 Proj.): 17,436
- Net lending (+)/borrowing (–) (2023 Act.): -5,412; (2024 Proj.): -4,751

Fiscal financing and memorandum items:
- Financing (2023 Act.): 5,993; (2024 Proj.): 3,703
- Primary balance (percent of GDP) series includes: -2.8 -0.4 -1.6 0.2 0.2 2.2 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.0
- External current account balance (including official transfers, percent of GDP): -4.2 -4.4 -8.6 -5.8 -4.4 -3.0 -2.3 -1.7 -1.4 -1.0
- Gross official reserves (millions of US$): 454.7 412.3 474.3 437.5 476.6 498.6 506.5 527.0 564.3 566.3
- Reserves (months of next year's imports): 5.1 4.2 4.9 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.0

### Monetary developments (Figure 3 and Tables 4a/4b)
- The Central Bank of The Gambia (CBG) tightened monetary policy stance to tame inflationary pressures.
- Banks' excess reserves increased leading to an increase in reserve money.
- Broad money growth accelerated in 2023, driven by an increase in the NFA of the central bank.
- Stabilization in inflation toward year end coincided somewhat with the decline of credit to the private sector.

Monetary stock highlights (Table 4a, end of period, millions of local currency):
- Net foreign assets (2023 Act.): 29,116; (2024 Prog.): 20,964
- Broad money (2023 Act.): 72,836; (2024 Prog.): 74,988; Projections: 79,210 86,028 92,381 99,373 107,323 109,469
- Reserve money (2023 Act.): 23,887; (2024 Prog.): 22,603; Projections: 23,713 25,090 25,556 27,607 31,516 31,481
- Claims on private sector (2023 Act.): 13,142; (2024 Prog.): 15,063; Projections: 15,695 16,645 20,336 23,227 27,897 29,590

Monetary growth rates and contributions (Table 4b):
- Broad money percent changes series: 7.1 2.5 8.8 9.4 8.8 8.6 7.4 7.6 8.0 2.0
- Net foreign assets (percent change series): -4.5 -8.2 4.4 0.4 -1.2 0.8 0.3 2.2 2.3 0.0
- Net domestic assets (percent change series): 11.6 10.7 4.4 8.9 10.0 7.8 7.1 5.4 5.7 2.0
- Credit to the private sector (percent change, memorandum): 25.0 16.0 11.7 10.4 19.4 6.1 22.2 14.2 20.1 6.1

### Medium-term outlook (Figure 4 and Table 1 projections)
- Economic growth is expected to accelerate as the recovery takes hold.
- Inflation is projected to gradually converge toward the CBG medium-term target.
- Expenditure restraint and revenue effort will drive projected fiscal consolidation in the medium term.
- Borrowing needs are expected to gradually decline and the public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline steadily.
- The external current account deficit is expected to broadly narrow in the medium term.

Selected medium-term projections (Table 1):
- GDP at constant prices (2025–2029): 4.9 5.6 5.3 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.0 5.0 5.0
- Public debt (percent of GDP, 2025–2029): 61.7 58.1 53.8 50.3 46.6
- Gross official reserves (millions of US$ 2025–2029): 498.6 506.5 527.0 564.3 566.3
- External current account balance (including official transfers, percent of GDP, 2025–2029): -4.4 -3.0 -2.3 -1.7 -1.4 -1.0 (table shows longer series; preserve presented values)

### Balance of payments and external accounts (table headers and notes)
- Table 6a begins presenting Balance of Payments, 2022–29 (Millions of U.S. dollars), indicating continuation of external sector figures and projections (content truncated in provided excerpt).

### Central government quarterly flows (Table 3 highlights)
- 2023 Revenue (Act.): 29,513 (cumulative Q4)
- 2024 Projected Revenue (Q4): 34,939 (cumulative)
- Net lending (+)/borrowing (–) 2023 Act.: -5,412; 2024 projected Q4: -4,751
- Financing (2023 Act.): 5,455; (2024 projected Q4): 4,751
- RCF/ECF/SDR (onlent) flows in 2023 cumulative: 125 190 477 477 571 (quarterly entries shown)

*Source: The Gambian authorities; and IMF staff estimates, projections, and accompanying figures and tables in the provided content.*

### 1. Current account

### 1. Current account

### A. Goods and services — levels (US$ millions)
- Goods and services: -561.7, -686.4, -739.8, -760.5, -722.2, -719.5, -750.6, -764.6, -795.2, -827.0
- Goods (net): -641.7, -765.9, -816.3, -880.5, -863.9, -894.7, -960.0, -1014.0, -1074.4, -1138.2
  - Exports, f.o.b.: 52.3, 98.7, 98.7, 119.3, 120.9, 138.1, 155.3, 173.8, 194.6, 217.1
  - Imports, f.o.b.: -694.0, -864.6, -915.0, -999.8, -984.8, -1032.9, -1115.3, -1187.8, -1269.0, -1355.3
- Services (net): 80.0, 79.5, 76.4, 120.0, 141.7, 175.3, 209.3, 249.5, 279.2, 311.2
  - Services exports: 215.4, 239.8, 239.8, 294.5, 315.3, 358.1, 403.9, 455.5, 497.7, 543.0
    - Of which: Travel income: 154.0, 175.0, 175.0, 175.5, 212.7, 230.2, 259.8, 290.3, 324.5, 346.4, 369.8
  - Services imports: -135.5, -160.4, -163.4, -174.5, -173.6, -182.8, -194.5, -206.0, -218.5, -231.8

### B. Income (net) — levels (US$ millions)
- Income (net): -31.1, -31.2, -30.9, -32.4, -32.0, -33.1, -34.3, -35.5, -36.9, -38.2
  - Income credits: 13.5, 13.1, 13.4, 13.6, 13.8, 14.3, 14.8, 15.4, 15.9, 16.5
  - Income debits: -44.6, -44.4, -44.3, -46.0, -45.8, -47.4, -49.1, -50.9, -52.8, -54.8

### C. Current transfers — levels (US$ millions)
- Current transfers: 503.0, 611.4, 567.0, 634.8, 634.8, 663.8, 712.1, 741.0, 781.9, 824.5
  - Official transfers: 40.0, 64.8, 64.8, 50.0, 50.0, 50.1, 50.2, 30.0, 30.0, 30.0
  - Remittances: 462.0, 532.4, 488.0, 570.2, 570.2, 598.7, 646.6, 695.3, 735.8, 778.0
  - Other transfers: 1.0, 14.2, 14.2, 14.6, 14.6, 14.9, 15.3, 15.7, 16.1, 16.5

### Current account aggregates — levels (US$ millions)
- Current account (excl. official transfers): -129.9, -171.1, -268.5, -208.1, -169.4, -138.9, -123.0, -89.1, -80.1, -70.8
- Current account (incl. prospective official transfers): -89.9, -106.3, -203.7, -158.1, -119.4, -88.8, -72.8, -59.1, -50.1, -40.8

### A. Goods and services — percent of GDP
- Goods and services: -26.0, -28.7, -31.3, -27.7, -26.8, -23.9, -23.3, -22.4, -22.0, -21.3
- Goods (net): -29.7, -32.0, -34.6, -32.0, -32.1, -29.8, -29.8, -29.7, -29.7, -29.3
  - Exports, f.o.b.: 2.4, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.5, 4.6, 4.8, 5.1, 5.4, 5.6
  - Imports, f.o.b.: -32.1, -36.2, -38.8, -36.4, -36.6, -34.4, -34.6, -34.8, -35.1, -34.9
- Services (net): 3.7, 3.3, 3.2, 4.4, 5.3, 5.8, 6.5, 7.3, 7.7, 8.0
  - Services exports: 10.0, 10.0, 10.2, 10.7, 11.7, 11.9, 12.5, 13.4, 13.8, 14.0
    - Of which: Travel income: 7.1, 7.3, 7.4, 7.7, 8.6, 8.6, 9.0, 9.5, 9.6, 9.5
  - Services imports: -6.3, -6.7, -6.9, -6.3, -6.4, -6.1, -6.0, -6.0, -6.1, -6.0

### B. Income and C. Current transfers — percent of GDP
- Income (net): -1.4, -1.3, -1.3, -1.2, -1.2, -1.1, -1.1, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0
  - Income credits: 0.6, 0.5, 0.6, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.4, 0.4
  - Income debits: -2.1, -1.9, -1.9, -1.7, -1.7, -1.6, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.4
    - Of which: Interest on government debt: 0.5, 0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3
- Current transfers: 23.3, 25.6, 24.0, 23.1, 23.6, 22.1, 22.1, 21.7, 21.6, 21.2
  - Official transfers: 1.9, 2.7, 2.7, 1.8, 1.9, 1.7, 1.6, 0.9, 0.8, 0.8
  - Remittances: 21.4, 22.3, 20.7, 20.7, 21.2, 19.9, 20.0, 20.4, 20.4, 20.0
  - Other transfers: 0.0, 0.6, 0.6, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.4, 0.4

### Current account aggregates — percent of GDP
- Current account (excl. official transfers): -6.0, -7.2, -11.4, -7.6, -6.3, -4.6, -3.8, -2.6, -2.2, -1.8
- Current account (incl. prospective official transfers): -4.2, -4.4, -8.6, -5.8, -4.4, -3.0, -2.3, -1.7, -1.4, -1.0

### 2. Capital and financial account

### Levels (US$ millions)
- Capital account: 82.7, 120.9, 159.9, 141.6, 139.3, 142.5, 144.6, 144.4, 145.1, 145.9
- Financial account: -102.2, -58.2, 0.2, 13.6, -45.7, -58.1, -84.5, -46.1, -35.1, -79.9
  - Foreign direct investment: 99.7, 102.4, 102.4, 106.5, 106.5, 110.5, 114.6, 119.0, 124.5, 130.2
  - Portfolio investment: 4.1, 4.5, 4.5, 5.2, 5.1, 5.7, 6.1, 6.5, 6.9, 7.4
  - Other investment: -206.0, -165.2, -106.7, -98.2, -157.3, -174.3, -205.3, -171.5, -166.5, -217.5
- Capital and financial account (overall): -19.5, 62.7, 160.1, 155.1, 93.5, 84.4, 60.1, 98.4, 110.0, 66.0

### Percent of GDP
- Capital account: 3.8, 5.1, 6.8, 5.2, 5.2, 4.7, 4.5, 4.2, 4.0, 3.8
- Financial account: -4.7, -2.4, 0.0, 0.5, -1.7, -1.9, -2.6, -1.4, -1.0, -2.1
  - Foreign direct investment: 4.6, 4.3, 4.3, 3.9, 4.0, 3.7, 3.6, 3.5, 3.4, 3.3
  - Portfolio investment: 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2
  - Other investment: -9.5, -6.9, -4.5, -3.6, -5.8, -5.8, -6.4, -5.0, -4.6, -5.6
- Capital and financial account (overall): -0.9, 2.6, 6.8, 5.6, 3.5, 2.8, 1.9, 2.9, 3.0, 1.7

### Errors, overall balance, and financing (levels, US$ millions)
- Errors and omissions: 0.0 for all periods shown
- Overall balance (does not include prospective budget support and project grants): -149.3, -108.4, -108.4, -52.9, -75.8, -54.5, -62.9, 9.3, 29.9, -4.8
- Financing: 149.3, 108.5, 108.5, 52.9, 75.8, 54.5, 62.9, -9.3, -29.9, 4.8
  - Net international reserves (increase -): 108.3, 43.7, 43.7, 2.9, 25.8, 4.4, 12.7, -39.3, -59.9, -25.2
  - Change in gross international reserves: 75.7, 42.4, 42.4, -25.1, -2.3, -22.0, -7.9, -20.5, -37.3, -2.0
  - Use of IMF resources (net): 32.6, 1.3, 1.3, 28.1, 28.1, 26.4, 20.6, -18.8, -22.6, -23.2
  - Exceptional financing: 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0
    - Of which: CCRT debt relief: 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0
    - Of which: DSSI: 0.00
  - Prospective donor financing / Budget support grants: 40.0, 64.8, 64.8, 50.0, 50.0, 50.1, 50.2, 30.0, 30.0, 30.0

### Memorandum items and indicators (levels)
- Gross international reserves (US$ millions): 454.7, 412.3, 474.3, 437.5, 476.6, 498.6, 506.5, 527.0, 564.3, 566.3
- Months of next year's imports of goods and services (using gross reserves): 5.1, 4.2, 4.9, 4.3, 4.7, 4.6, 4.4, 4.3, 4.3, 4.0
- Net international reserves (US$ millions): 325.9, 280.0, 344.9, 281.5, 309.1, 253.7, 241.0, 280.3, 329.2, 447.0
- Months of next year's imports of goods and services (using net reserves): 3.6, 2.9, 3.6, 2.8, 3.1, 2.3, 2.1, 2.3, 2.5, 3.2
- Net international reserves (w/o SDR allocation) (US$ millions): 240.9, 195.0, 259.9, 196.5, 224.1, 168.7, 156.0, 195.3, 244.2, 362.0
- Months of next year's imports of goods and services (w/o SDR allocation): 2.7, 2.0, 2.7, 1.9, 2.2, 1.5, 1.3, 1.6, 1.8, 2.6
- Exports of goods and services (US$ millions): 267.7, 338.5, 338.5, 413.8, 436.2, 496.3, 559.2, 629.3, 692.4, 760.1
- Imports of goods and services (US$ millions): -829.5, -1025.0, -1078.4, -1174.3, -1158.4, -1215.7, -1309.8, -1393.9, -1487.5, -1587.1
- GMD per U.S. dollar, period average: 56.7
- External Debt service: 76.6, 71.3, 71.3, 254.8, 56.4, 79.1, 91.5, 108.0, 110.4, 111.3
- NIR/External Debt Service (ratio): 4.2, 3.9, 4.8, 5.1, 5.6, 4.0, 3.3, 3.1, 3.6, 3.8

### 3. External financing needs and sources (Selected items)
- Total financing requirement (Millions of U.S. dollars): -212.0 (2024), -227.6 (2025), -210.3 (2026), -205.6 (2027)
  - Current account deficit (excl. official transfers): -169.4, -138.9, -123.0, -89.1
  - Public debt amortization: -35.1, -59.8, -66.6, -77.2
  - Repayment to the IMF: -5.2, -6.9, -12.7, -18.8
  - Change in official reserves: -2.3, -22.0, -7.9, -20.5
- Total financing sources (Millions of U.S. dollars): 128.6 (2024), 144.2 (2025), 126.7 (2026), 175.6 (2027)
  - Capital transfers: 139.3, 142.5, 144.6, 144.4
  - Foreign direct investment (net): 106.5, 110.5, 114.6, 119.0
  - Portfolio investment (net): 5.1, 5.7, 6.1, 6.5
  - Public sector debt financing: 25.3, 38.0, 43.1, 52.8
  - Other net capital inflows (footnote 1): -147.5, -152.4, -181.7, -147.1
- Total financing needs after identified sources (Millions of U.S. dollars): 83.3, 83.4, 83.5, 30.0
  - Budget support (grants): 50.0, 50.1, 50.2, 30.0
  - IMF disbursements: 33.3, 33.3, 33.3, 0.0
  - Exceptional financing (CCRT debt relief): 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.0

### 4. Selected policy and reform measures (structural benchmarks, 2024–25)
- Domestic revenue mobilization (GRA and MOFEA)
  - Set up a platform and command center for a single window of customs administration. Timing: End-February 2024. Status: Met.
  - Adopt by the Cabinet a revised GIEPA act with streamlined tax incentives. Timing: End-June 2024 (Proposed to be postponed to End-September 2024).
  - Adopt a domestic revenue mobilization strategy. Timing: End-September 2024.
  - Undertake 10 comprehensive audits of Large Taxpayers, including in the telecom sector. Timing: End-September 2024.
  - Create a database of rental property for taxation purposes. Timing: (New) End-June 2025.
- Governance, Financial Sector and SOE reforms (MOFEA and CBG)
  - Sign performance contracts with four additional SOEs. Timing: End-February 2024. Status: Met.
  - Prepare a revised draft law on AML/CFT aligned with FATF standards. Timing: End-March 2024. Status: Met.
  - Transmit the Ombudsman reports for 2021 and 2022 to the National Assembly and publish on the website. Timing: End-March 2024. Status: Met.
  - Publish the governance diagnostic report and finalize an implementation plan. Timing: End-April 2024. Status: Not Met (proposed to be rephased to end-August 2024).
  - Complete partial or full privatization of GAMCEL. Timing: End-March 2025.
  - Adopt by the Cabinet a draft land policy. Timing: (New) End-September 2025.
- Public financial management (MOFEA and Cabinet)
  - Ensure all MDAs submit yearly cash plans through the IFMIS module. Timing: (New) End-September 2024.
  - Ensure Cabinet approval of the roadmap for program-based budgeting and initiate roll-out for 2025 draft budget for pilot ministries. Timing: End-December 2024.
  - Prepare a study on rationalizing and consolidating subvented agencies with MDAs. Timing: End-December 2024.
  - Extend the use of IFMIS to all new donor- and government-funded projects. Timing: (New) End-June 2025.
- Governance and SOE reforms (MOFEA)
  - Adopt by the Cabinet a revised National Audit Office Act. Timing: (New) End-October 2024.
  - Finalize and enact regulations of the recently passed public procurement and SOEs Acts. Timing: (New) End-December 2024.
  - Complete the expansion of the social registry to Banjul and Kombo areas. Timing: End-December 2024.
  - Set up a digital platform for business registration. Timing: End-December 2024.
- Financial Sector (CBG and MOFEA)
  - Require the augmentation of banks’ capital by GMD100 million. Timing: (New) End-September 2025.

*Sources: The Gambian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.*

### Annex I. Risk Assessment Matrix

### Annex I. Risk Assessment Matrix

### External risks: sources, likelihood, impact, and policy responses
- Intensification of regional conflict(s)  
  - Relative Likelihood: High  
  - Impact if Realized: High  
  - Impact description: Escalation or spread of the conflict in Gaza and Israel, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and/or other regional conflicts or terrorism disrupt trade (e.g., energy, food, tourism, supply chains), remittances, FDI and financial flows, payment systems, and increase refugee flows. Income in destinations of exports and origins of tourists will be hindered. The Gambia’s exports would dwindle, and tourist arrivals and remittances would decline. Growth would slow down, and foreign exchange pressures would reemerge.  
  - Policy Response:
    - Diversify economic activities as well as exports destinations and tourists origins to reduce vulnerabilities to shocks in a few sectors and dependence on limited groups of countries.
    - Resolve regional trade disruptions to reduce dependence on global trade.

- Commodity price volatility  
  - Relative Likelihood: High  
  - Impact if Realized: High  
  - Impact description: A succession of supply disruptions (e.g., due to conflicts, export restrictions, and OPEC+ decisions) and demand fluctuations causes recurrent commodity price volatility, external and fiscal pressures in EMDEs, cross-border spillovers, and social and economic instability. Dependence on imported commodities leads to higher volatility in import bill and volume. Higher exchange rate and domestic price volatility will cause social and economic instability. Unpredictable trade values and production costs slow investment and growth.  
  - Policy Response:
    - Provide targeted support to vulnerable households using the expanded social registry.
    - Strengthen the fiscal oversight of NAWEC.
    - Accelerate implementation of national energy roadmap with World Bank support, including use of alternative energy production methods.

- Abrupt global slowdown or recession  
  - Relative Likelihood: Medium  
  - Impact if Realized: High  
  - Impact description: Global and idiosyncratic risk factors cause a synchronized sharp growth downturn, with recessions in some countries, adverse spillovers through trade and financial channels, and market fragmentation triggering sudden stops in EMDEs. Exports markets would shrink. Domestic economic activity would be severely impaired. The tax base would shrink, and spending may soar to support the economy and society, resulting into risk of debt distress and widening external imbalances.  
  - Policy Response:
    - Build adequate fiscal and foreign exchange buffers.
    - Roll-out targeted social programs to support the vulnerable population.
    - Develop the domestic market to reduce dependence on global demand.

- Note on RAM probability labels: The staff’s subjective assessment defines “low” as a probability below 10 percent, “medium” as a probability between 10 and 30 percent, and “high” as a probability between 30 and 50 percent.

### Domestic risks: sources, likelihood, impact, and policy responses
- Social discontent and instability  
  - Relative Likelihood: High  
  - Impact if Realized: High  
  - Impact description: Persistently high inflation is eroding households’ real income, increasing inequality and intensifying wage increase demands, with the potential for heightened social tensions. Socio-political uncertainty hurts market confidence and private investment, delays economic and policy reforms, and weakens institutions.  
  - Policy Response:
    - Involve CSOs and other stakeholders in the society in policy decisions.
    - Further strengthen governance and anti-corruption reforms, including through implementation of recommendations from the recent governance diagnostic.

- Higher frequency and severity of natural disasters  
  - Relative Likelihood: Medium  
  - Impact if Realized: Medium  
  - Impact description: More frequent cycles of erratic flooding, rainfall, windstorms, and droughts cause severe damage to infrastructure and loss of human lives and livelihoods, amplifying supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures, causing food shortages, and reducing growth. Stock of physical and human capital, and thereby, domestic production would be adversely impacted. The number of internally displaced individuals would increase, leading to increased recovery spending and worsened fiscal situation.  
  - Policy Response:
    - Strengthen food security and rural feeding programs.
    - Build up fiscal and reserve buffers.
    - Build resilience to natural disasters.

- New virus outbreaks  
  - Relative Likelihood: Medium  
  - Impact if Realized: High  
  - Impact description: Covid-19 or other infections resume. Economic activity would be locked down. Broad-based income support would be needed for the population.  
  - Policy Response:
    - Strengthen preventive health system.

### Recent economic developments and key statistics
- Real GDP growth: estimated at 5.3 percent in 2023, supported by agriculture, services, telecom and construction sectors.  
- Tourist arrivals: recovering closer to the pre-pandemic peak level of 2019 (2023 and early 2024).  
- Remittance inflows: increased from US$712.5 million in 2022 to US$746.8 million in 2023 and continue to be robust in the beginning of 2024.  
- Inflation: peaked at 18.5 percent (y-o-y) in September 2023, and declined to 14.9 percent (y-o-y) in March 2024.  
- Gross reserves: 4.9 months of prospective import at end-2023 and outperformed targets.  
- Fiscal performance 2023: domestic revenue collection slightly exceeded projections; domestically financed spending was lower than anticipated; accelerated execution of donor-financed projects raised overall fiscal deficit and public debt relative to expectations. Projects related to the OIC summit, the completion of a university, and a solar energy project were cited.  
- Q1-2024: revenue collection outperformed targets and reached a major milestone; spending pressures—including from IPC payments—led to a small deviation from fiscal targets.

### Macroeconomic outlook (projections and risks)
- Real GDP growth: projected to increase to 5.8 percent in 2024, then stabilize around 5 percent in the medium term.  
- Inflation: expected to ease and converge to the CBG’s medium-term target of 5 percent by the end of 2026.  
- Forex reserves: projected to remain above 4 months of prospective imports in the medium term.  
- Fiscal deficit: expected to decline to 2.7 percent of GDP in 2024 and further decline to 0.5 percent of GDP in the medium term.  
- Public debt: projected to steadily decline as a share of GDP.  
- Noted downside risks: intensification of regional conflicts, global commodity price volatility, and an abrupt global slowdown could slow growth, increase inflationary and forex pressures, and resume large fuel revenue losses. Upside: expected benefits from a Compact with the Millennium Challenge Corporation in the medium term.

### Macroeconomic policies and structural reforms (highlights)
- Monetary and FX policy:
  - CBG committed to fighting inflation and maintaining a tight policy bias as needed; MPC will monitor and stand ready to further tighten policy stance.
  - CBG stands ready to deploy policy tools including issuance of CBG bills, use of the deposit window, and the reserve requirement ratio to reach the 5 percent target.
  - Foreign exchange policy: market-determined exchange rate; revised foreign exchange bureau guidelines published in December 2023; CBG will finalize and approve a forex intervention policy and limit interventions to alleviate excess market volatility.
  - CBG loans to public entities: all existing loans to general government entities outside the central government have been and will be guaranteed by the central government. Temporary advances to the Government capped at ten percent of the previous year’s tax revenue; advances to be repaid by end of the financial year and charged market interest.
  - Banking sector capitalization: CBG will require augmentation of commercial banks’ capital by GMD100 million by end-September 2025 (new structural benchmark for end-September 2025), and by another GMD100 million each year to reach GMD500 million by end-2027.

- Fiscal policy and social protection:
  - 2024 fiscal framework anchored on the approved 2024 budget; Q1-2024 revenue exceeded target by GMD400 million (or 0.2 percent of GDP).
  - Reprioritizing spending to accommodate OIC-related expenditures; aiming to continue reducing fuel subsidies and commit to not reduce domestic pump prices in case of global price declines to recover previous revenue losses.
  - Strengthening social safety nets: expand coverage and improve targeting; Family Strengthening Program (FSP) implemented as cash transfers of GMD 1,000 to 2,000 beneficiaries; ministry has given GMD 30 million so far.
  - Cash management: MDAs to submit yearly cash needs projections by September 2024 through IFMIS module (new structural benchmark for end-September 2024).
  - Fiscal anchor: keep 2024 fiscal deficit at 2.7 percent of GDP as approved by the National Assembly.

- Structural and governance reforms:
  - Anti-corruption bill passed by the National Assembly.
  - Progress on revenue administration, PFM, SOE reforms; performance contracts signed with four additional SOEs; Cabinet approved partial privatization of GAMCEL.
  - Governance diagnostic discussed in Cabinet; preparing action plan to implement recommendations with intent to finalize by end-August 2024 and request postponement of a related structural benchmark to that date.

*Annex I. Risk Assessment Matrix — 1gmbea2024003-print-pdf.*

### 13.      We are committed to maintaining our near-  and medium-term fiscal strategy as

### 13.      We are committed to maintaining our near-  and medium-term fiscal strategy as previously envisaged.

### Revenue-side measures and progress
- Single window platform: ready and operational; ship manifests, ship scheduling and delivery operations are being handled through the system.
- E-tracking measures implemented to prevent diversion:
  - Transit trucks from the borders.
  - Fuel trucks from fuel depots to the exit borders.
  - Goods for warehousing from the seaport to designated warehouses, and from the warehouses to the borders.
- Digital weigh bridge at the seaport: recently completed; assists in weighing bulk cargo that pays excise duties based on weight.
- Customs strengthening: post clearance section reinforced by hiring additional staff.
- Digital Tracing System (DTS): implementation commenced in early 2024; early indications show positive impact.
- Rental tax compliance:
  - Implementation of the rental tax compliance system has commenced.
  - Creation of a specialized rental income tax office in 2023 significantly improved collection.
- Audits:
  - All the 12 commercial banks have been audited from Q4-2023 to Q1-2024.
  - Plan to audit all the GSM operators during 2024 (which will allow fulfilling the structural benchmark for end-September 2024).
- Planned and ongoing projects:
  - Procurement process for an Integrated Tax Administration System (ITAS) through World Bank funding is on-going; discussions with the service provider to sign the contract and kickstart implementation.
  - PPP contract signed to implement an IT system for excisable goods, revenue assurance system for mobile network operators and fuel marking.
  - Development, approval, and implementation of standard procedural manual for in-land border posts to harmonize procedures.
  - Plan to create a database of rental property for taxation purposes (new structural benchmark for End-June 2025).
  - Work on full digitalization of VAT collection with smart invoice technology to connect all VAT registrants to GRA servers in real time when making sales.
- Tax exemptions and policy:
  - Cabinet to adopt a revised GIEPA act with more limited tax incentives (structural benchmark for End-September 2024).
  - Revisions to include: streamlining priority sectors, eliminating extension of SICs based on expansion and re-investment, cancelling underperforming SICs, excluding fuel from tax-exempted goods, requiring SIC holders to be compliant with local tax obligations.
  - Apply tax withholding on contractors for all donor-funded projects; consult with development partners.
  - Developed a tax expenditure policy for systematic administration, monitoring and transparent reporting across MDAs.
- GRA modernization and governance:
  - GRA started developing its next Corporate Strategic Plan covering 2025 – 2029.
  - Increased audit capacity and coverage; will complete automation of GRA’s internal audit to strengthen governance, internal control and support revenue collection.
  - Commit to bolstering collection of non-tax revenue, including administrative fees not adjusted for several years.

### Spending-side measures
- Impact of 2023 actions: acceleration of donor-funded projects and frontloading of external loan disbursements in 2023 will translate into lower disbursements and lower fiscal deficit in the medium term relative to previous fiscal plans.
- SOE contracts: signed and forthcoming contracts with key SOEs expected to improve operational and financial performance and allow rationalizing subsidies, including to NFSPMC (GGC), NAWEC and subvented agencies.
- Structural benchmark: prepare a study on rationalizing and consolidating subvented agencies with MDAs (structural benchmark for End-December 2024).
- Expenditure discipline: continue to tighten overseas travels and execute infrastructure projects within available resources.
- Information sharing: will continue to share with Fund staff information on external loan disbursement plans related to foreign-financed infrastructure projects.

### Medium-term fiscal framework and debt strategy
- Objective: firmly reduce public debt while addressing large development needs; public debt currently sustainable but risks of overall and external debt distress remain high.
- Target: improve the domestic primary fiscal balance by about 2 percentage points of GDP during the ECF program period.
- Composition of consolidation: planned to be broadly equally based on domestic revenue and domestically financed spending, with intent to intensify domestic resource mobilization.
- Structural benchmark: develop a domestic revenue mobilization strategy (structural benchmark for End-September 2024).
- Innovative financing: consider options (e.g., Asset Recycling Program promoted by Africa50) to finance infrastructure without worsening debt vulnerabilities, ensuring conformity with ECF fiscal and debt objectives and avoidance of additional fiscal risks.
- SOEs and PPPs: ensure they do not create fiscal risks and contingent liabilities.
- External buffers and borrowing: strengthen external buffers to prepare for expiration of debt deferrals; avoid contracting non-concessional borrowing and adhere to the agreed concessional borrowing plan under the ECF-supported program.

### Public Financial Management (PFM), Governance, and SOE sector
- Program-based budgeting: seek Cabinet approval of a roadmap for implementation and initiate roll-out in preparing the 2025 draft budget for pilot ministries (new structural benchmark for End-December 2024).
- IFMIS expansion:
  - Extend IFMIS to all new donor and government-funded projects (new structural benchmark for End-June 2025).
  - Ensure all MDAs submit yearly cash plans through the IFMIS module (New) End-September 2024.
- Investment prioritization: prioritize investment decisions by developing a pipeline of appraised projects based on the Gambia Strategic Review Board (GSRB) tool.
- Legal reforms: collaborate with the National Assembly to accelerate adoption of the PFM Act and PPP bill to strengthen budget processes, accountability and contain fiscal risks.
- Gender: pilot gender-based budgeting to ensure transparency, accountability, performance and results orientation.
- SOE reforms and transparency:
  - Aim to transform SOE sector from fiscal burdens to revenue sources by improving governance and operational and financial performance.
  - Publish audited financial accounts up to 2023 of all SOEs on their websites, including cost of services undertaken at government’s request.
  - Finalize and enact regulations of the recently passed SOEs Act, together with regulations on the GPPA procurement act (new structural benchmark for End-December 2024).
  - Complete partial or full privatization of GAMCEL (structural benchmark for End-March 2025).

### Governance, anti-corruption, and accountability
- Anticorruption bill: passed by the National Assembly; Cabinet preparing an action plan based on the governance diagnostic report.
- Implementation plan: finalized plan to implement recommendations addressing governance weaknesses and corruption vulnerabilities.
- AML/CFT: completed a revised draft law on AML/CFT aligned with Financial Action Task Force standards.
- Ombudsman reports: transmitted the Ombudsman reports for 2021 and 2022 to the National Assembly and published on the website.
- National Audit Office (NAO): Cabinet will adopt a revised National Audit Office Act (new structural benchmark for End-October 2024) to bind auditees to respond to NAO timely, provide requested information, and enhance enforcement of NAO’s audit recommendations.
- Further reforms: committed to digitalization and automation of administrative processes, contract enforcement, and limits on discretion in public decisions.

### Business environment, social protection, and financial inclusion
- Business registration: set up a digital platform for business registration (structural benchmark for End-December 2024).
- Land policy: Cabinet will adopt a land policy (new structural benchmark for End-September 2025).
- Social protection:
  - Complete expansion of the social registry to the Banjul and Kombo areas to improve targeting of social programs (structural benchmark for End-December 2024).
  - Map all social protection programs within the Budget and report on them quarterly.
- Credit information and payments infrastructure:
  - Select a developer for replacement of the Credit Reference Bureau.
  - Continue to widen coverage of the national switch (GamSwitch) to enhance resilience and revenue generation through implementation of robust software (Powercard) and interoperability.
  - GamSwitch’s role: facilitate connectivity to a central platform for retail payments to enhance financial inclusion via digital retail payments by banks and fintech firms.

### Climate change resilience and financing
- Risks and needs: vulnerability to floods, storms, drought, coastal erosion; large adaptation investment needs.
- Financing approach: given high risk of debt distress, financing resilient infrastructure will require external partner support; remaining financing gaps to be filled through DRM, spending rationalization, and enhancement of public investment efficiency.
- Private mobilization: continue structural reforms to improve business environment to mobilize private climate investment.
- IMF and World Bank support:
  - Requested IMF technical assistance on Climate Policy Diagnostics and Climate-PIMA; missions tentatively planned for Q2-Q3 2024.
  - Working with the World Bank to start CCDR preparation in summer of 2024.

### Capacity development and technical assistance
- IMF technical assistance and training prioritized to strengthen institutional capacity to implement ECF-supported program reforms.
- Areas for TA: revenue administration, public financial management, macroeconomic statistics production and dissemination, tax policy, fuel pricing, forex policy, SOEs, and governance diagnostic.
- Collaboration on GDP rebasing project with TA including resident experts, Afritac West 2, and IMF-HQ.

### Program monitoring and reviews
- Commitment to meet quantitative targets and observe structural benchmarks.
- Semiannual reviews based on performance criteria, indicative targets and structural benchmarks as set out in Tables 1 and 2 and the Technical Memorandum of Understanding.
- Review schedule:
  - Second program review based on end-June 2024 targets; expected to be completed on or after September 30, 2024.
  - Third program review based on end-December 2024 targets; expected to be completed on or after March 31, 2025.
  - Fourth program review based on end-June 2025 targets; expected to be completed on or after September 30, 2025.

### Selected structural benchmarks and timing (as reported)
- Set up a platform and command center for a single window of customs administration — End-February 2024 — Met.
- Sign performance contracts with four additional SOEs — End-February 2024 — Met.
- Prepare a revised draft law on AML/CFT aligned with FATF standards — End-March 2024 — Met.
- Transmit Ombudsman reports for 2021 and 2022 to the National Assembly and publish — End-March 2024 — Met.
- Publish governance diagnostic report and finalize implementation plan — End-April 2024 — Not Met (proposed to be rephased to End-August 2024).
- Adopt by Cabinet a revised GIEPA act with streamlined tax incentives — End-June 2024 (Proposed to be postponed to End-September 2024).
- Adopt a domestic revenue mobilization strategy — End-September 2024.
- Undertake 10 comprehensive audits of Large Taxpayers, including telecom sector — End-September 2024.
- Create a database of rental property for taxation purposes — (New) End-June 2025.
- Ensure all MDAs submit yearly cash plans through IFMIS module — (New) End-September 2024.
- Ensure Cabinet approval of roadmap for program-based budgeting and initiate roll-out for 2025 draft budget for pilot ministries — End-December 2024.
- Prepare a study on rationalizing and consolidating subvented agencies with MDAs — End-December 2024.
- Extend use of IFMIS to all new donor- and government-funded projects — (New) End-June 2025.
- Adopt by Cabinet a revised National Audit Office Act — (New) End-October 2024.
- Finalize and enact regulations of public procurement and SOEs Acts — (New) End-December 2024.
- Complete expansion of the social registry to Banjul and Kombo areas — End-December 2024.
- Set up a digital platform for business registration — End-December 2024.
- Complete partial or full privatization of GAMCEL — End-March 2025.
- Adopt by Cabinet a draft land policy — (New) End-September 2025.
- Require augmentation of banks’ capital by GMD100 million — (New) End-September 2025.

### Technical Memorandum excerpt: quantitative targets (selected definitions)
- Central government composition: includes central administration, public institutions and other entities financed through the budget; includes Ministries, Departments, and Agencies and excludes local and regional governments and public enterprises.
- Domestic primary balance of the Central government:
  - Measured above-the-line and defined in accordance with the monthly consolidated Central Government budget report on budget execution (Statement of Government Operations) for the month and cumulatively from the beginning of the year.
  - Calculated by subtracting expenses (except interest payment) and domestically financed capital expenditures from domestic revenue.
  - Domestic revenue is recorded on a cash basis and includes tax revenues and non-tax revenues.
  - Revenues exclude any type of financial transfers from the Central Bank (except dividends payments), interest income from intra-public sector holding of securities and debt obligations, proceeds from the sale of financial assets, and special drawing rights (SDRs) allocated by the Fund or received bilaterally from other IMF members.

*Source: 1gmbea2024003-print-pdf - 13.      We are committed to maintaining our near-  and medium-term fiscal strategy as previously envisaged.*

### 3.      Adjuster: The cumulative floor on the central government domestic primary balance targets

### 3.      Adjuster: The cumulative floor on the central government domestic primary balance targets

### Adjuster for Domestic Primary Balance Targets
- The cumulative floor on the central government domestic primary balance targets will be adjusted upward/downward by the excess/shortfall of the dalasi equivalent of the total budget support grants received in that period relative to the program forecasts specified in the table below.
- Supporting material: Reporting on the domestic primary fiscal balance will form part of the consolidated budget report described in ¶37 below.

### B. Net Domestic Borrowing of the Central Government — Definition and Adjuster
- Definition: Net domestic borrowing (NDB) is defined as the change in net treasury position at the Central Bank of the Gambia, the government bond (30-year bonds) held by the CBG, and the stock of securities (T-bills, T-bonds, Sukuk, NAWEC Bond) held by banks and the non-monetary sector.
- Net treasury position covers the sum of:
  - balance of the treasury main account (TMA), the consolidated revenue account, the revenue accounts, the special deposit accounts (T-bills, T-bonds and Sukuk) accounts, and any other accounts that receive central government revenue or pay central government spending (currently the special deposit account, Gambia Africard revenue account, Senegambia bridge toll facility, and Covid 19 recovery project, with the list to be updated at every program review).
- Exclusions:
  - (i) on-lending of the IMF credit to the budget and lending to the Treasury of any portion of the SDR general allocation,
  - (ii) changes in the balances of other deposits accounts (including project accounts),
  - (iii) the face value of government securities issued to increase the CBG’s capital to the statutory level enshrined in the CBG Act.
- Adjuster: The NDB targets will be adjusted downward/upward by the excess/shortfall of the dalasi equivalent of the total budget support grants received in that period relative to the program forecasts specified in the table below.
- Constraint: The upward adjustment of the NDB targets to compensate for the shortfall in the disbursements of budget support may not exceed GMD 1 billion at each quarter of 2024.
- Additional adjuster provision: The NDB targets will also be adjusted to account for any potential delay in disbursements under the ECF-supported program.
- Supporting material: Reporting on net domestic borrowing will form part of the consolidated budget report described in ¶32 below and the IMF weekly data produced by the Central Bank.

### Program Forecasts of External Budget Support Grants in 2024-2025 (Cumulative flow in millions of US dollars)
- March 2024: 8.9
- June 2024: 8.7
- September 2024: 23.1
- December 2024: 50.0
- March 2025: 10.0
- June 2025: 20.0

### C. Net Domestic Assets of the Central Bank — Definition and Reporting
- Definition: Net domestic assets (NDA) of the CBG = reserve money − net foreign assets of the CBG.
- Reserve money = currency issued by the CBG (currency in circulation) + deposits of commercial banks at the CBG.
- Net foreign assets = foreign assets − foreign liabilities; foreign assets and foreign liabilities are claims on nonresidents and liabilities to nonresidents respectively.
- For program monitoring: foreign assets and liabilities will be converted at the prevailing exchange rates.
- Supporting material: Net domestic assets of the central bank will be transmitted as part of the balance sheet of the CBG on a monthly basis within four weeks of the end of each month.
- Additional: For analytical purposes, the balance sheet of the CBG compiled on a current-rate basis will also be submitted.

### D. Net Usable International Reserves (NIR) of the CBG — Definition and Adjusters
- Definition: NIR = usable reserve assets − reserve liabilities.
- Usable reserve assets include CBG holdings of SDRs, foreign currency cash, foreign currency securities, deposits abroad, and the country’s reserve position at the IMF.
- Exclusions from usable reserve assets: pledged/collateralized/encumbered assets, claims on residents, derivatives vis-à-vis domestic currency, precious metals, assets in nonconvertible currencies, and illiquid assets (including capital shares in international organizations).
- Reserve liabilities: all foreign exchange liabilities to residents and nonresidents, including commitments to sell foreign exchange from derivatives, and all credit outstanding from the IMF, but excluding liabilities to the IMF’s SDR Department.
- For program monitoring: foreign assets and liabilities will be converted at the prevailing exchange rates.
- Quarterly adjuster for NIR targets: Adjusted downward/upward by the US dollar equivalent of the shortfall/excess of total budget support grants received in that quarter relative to the program forecasts specified in the table above.
- Cap: The downward adjustment to the NIR targets to compensate for the shortfall in budget support will be capped at US$40 million.
- Additional adjuster: NIR targets will also be adjusted to account for any potential delay in disbursements under the ECF-supported program.
- SDR allocation provision: In case of an allocation of SDRs by the IMF, the net usable international reserves of the CBG will be adjusted upward by the amount of the SDR allocation.
- Supporting material: A detailed reserve statement with end-month data on net usable international reserves of the CBG will be transmitted within seven days of the end of each month.

### E. New External Debt Payment Arrears of the Central Government
- Definition: External debt = outstanding actual current (not contingent) liabilities requiring payment(s) of principal and/or interest denominated in any currency other than the Gambian dalasi.
- External debt payment arrears = external debt obligations of the central government not paid when due in accordance with contractual terms (considering contractual grace periods).
- Exclusions from external arrears for program purposes:
  - (i) financial obligations where the creditor has accepted in writing to negotiate alternative payment schedules before the relevant payment;
  - (ii) arrears on claims the government has represented as being disputed;
  - (iii) arrears on claims that cannot be settled due to international sanctions;
  - (iv) arrears on trade credits, except arrears on payments due to the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC).
- Non-accumulation of new external debt payment arrears by the central government is a target to be observed continuously.
- Supporting material: Accounting of non-reschedulable external arrears (if any) by creditor countries, with detailed explanations, transmitted monthly within four weeks of the end of each month; separate reporting for Central Government and other public sector entities to Paris Club, non-Paris-Club, private, plurilateral and multilateral creditors. Any non-observance must be reported immediately.

### F. New Non-Concessional External Debt Contracted or Guaranteed by the Central Government
- Definition: Refers to new non-concessional external debt contracted or guaranteed by the Central Government denominated in any currency other than the Gambian dalasi.
- Scope: Applies to debt as defined in ¶8(a) of the Guidelines on Public Debt Conditionality in Fund Arrangements (Executive Board Decision No. 15688-(14/107), adopted December 5, 2014), as amended, and includes commitments contracted or guaranteed for which value has not been received.
- Guarantees: Any explicit legal or contractual obligation of the central government to service a debt owed by a third-party debtor.
- A debt is considered contracted when conditions for its entrance into effect have been met, including approval by the National Assembly.
- Exclusions: Loans or purchases from the IMF and concessional debts as defined below, and any debt with maturity of one year or less.
- Assessment: This performance criterion will be assessed on a continuous basis.
- Concessionality definition is provided in ¶20 (below).
- Supporting material: Comprehensive record, loan-by-loan accounting of all new non-concessional debt contracted or guaranteed by the Central Government with detailed explanations, transmitted quarterly within four weeks of the end of each quarter. Any non-observance must be reported immediately.
- MoFEA reporting requirement: Within four weeks of contracting or guaranteeing any new external loan, MoFEA will forward the loan’s terms and conditions including interest rate, grace period, maturity, interest, fees, and principal payment schedule with all annexes.

### G. New Concessional External Debt Contracted or Guaranteed by the Central Government
- Definition: This target, a ceiling, refers to new concessional external debt contracted or guaranteed by the Central Government denominated in any currency other than the Gambian dalasi. Concessionality is as defined in ¶20.
- For borrowing packages with both loan and grant components to meet the concessionality requirement (grant element of 35 percent), only the loan components will count toward the borrowing limit.
- Supporting material and data provision: Comprehensive record, loan-by-loan accounting of all new concessional debt contracted or guaranteed by the Central Government with detailed explanations, transmitted quarterly within four weeks of the end of each quarter.

### H. Outstanding Stock of External Public Debt with Original Maturity of One Year or Less
- Definition: Stock of outstanding external public debt with original maturity of one year or less, owed or guaranteed by the public sector (public sector = Central Government and regional governments and other public agencies, including the central bank).
- Exclusion: Trade credits are excluded, including ITFC credits.
- Assessment: This performance criterion will be assessed on a continuous basis.
- Supporting material: Comprehensive record of all external debt with original maturity of less than one year owed or contracted by the public sector, with detailed explanations, transmitted quarterly within four weeks of the end of each quarter. Any nonobservance must be reported immediately.

### I. Tax Revenue — Definition and Reporting
- Definition: Indicative target refers to taxes and duties collected by the Domestic Taxes Department and Customs and Excises Department of the Gambia Revenue Authority (GRA).
- Tax revenue = sum of revenues collected against all the tax codes outlined in Text Table 1 (Customs and Excise; Domestic Taxes).
- Exclusions: Nontax revenue (licensing fees, fines, levies collected by the GRA) and levies collected by the GRA on behalf of other organizations (National Education & Technology Training Levy, AU Levy, ECOWAS Levy).
- Supporting material: A monthly report on revenue collected by the GRA will be transmitted within four weeks of the end of each month.

### J. Central Bank Credit to the Government at Non-Market Terms
- Definition: Refers to the consolidated balance on the Treasury Main Account, the Consolidated Revenue Fund, other revenue accounts, and the special security proceeds accounts; covers all gross claims on the Government on the central bank balance sheet with terms materially different from market terms for T-bills and bonds at acquisition time. Also covers overdue payments of principal and interest on Government securities held by the central bank.
- Exclusions: RCF on-lending and the 30-year bond held by CBG.
- Monitoring rule: The negative balance of the TMA should not exceed 10 percent of the previous year’s tax revenue.
- End-of-year requirement: Overdrafts on the TMA shall be fully repaid at the end of the year.
- Supporting material: Reporting on new central bank credit to the government at nonmarket terms will form part of the monetary sector data described in ¶39 and ¶40 below.

### K. Poverty-Reducing Expenditures — Definition and Reporting
- Definition: Poverty-reducing expenditures consist of expenditures financed out of The Gambia Local Fund (GLF) on:
  - Agriculture and Natural Resources; Education; Health; Nutrition, Population and HIV-AIDS; Infrastructure Program; Social Fund for Poverty Reduction; Implementation and Monitoring of Poverty Reduction Programs; Support to Cross-Cutting Programs; ICT Research and Development; Decentralization and Local Government Capacity Building; Governance and Civil Service Reform Program.
- Supporting material: A monthly report on poverty-reducing expenditures will be transmitted within four weeks of the end of each month.

### Other Data Requirements and Reporting Standards
- Prices:
  - The monthly disaggregated consumer price index, including weights for each major category, with January 2020 = 100, will be transmitted within four weeks of the end of each month.
- Government Accounts Data:
  - Monthly consolidated Central Government budget report (Statement of Government Operations) on budget execution for the month and cumulatively from the beginning of the year, transmitted within four weeks of the end of each month. The report will cover:
    - (i) revenue data by major items (such as taxes on income, profits, and capital gains; domestic taxes on goods and services; taxes on international trade and transactions; other taxes; non-tax revenue);
    - (ii) external grants by type (e.g., budget support grants, project grants);
    - (iii) details of recurrent expenditure (including goods and services, interest payments, and subsidies and other current transfers);
    - (iv) details of capital expenditure and net lending (including data on externally financed capital expenditure, expenditure from the Gambia Local Fund, and net lending);
    - (v) the overall balance, the primary and the basic balance;
    - (vi) details of budget financing (including net domestic and net external borrowing and their components).
  - End-week data on net domestic borrowing will be transmitted weekly within five business days of the end of each week.
- Monetary Sector Data:
  - The balance sheet of the CBG, prepared on the basis of current and program exchange rates, will be transmitted monthly within four weeks of the end of each month. The balance sheet will explicitly identify all claims on, and liabilities to, the government and include individual balances on the government accounts listed in Table 1.
  - The consolidated balance sheet of the commercial banks and a monetary survey (consolidation of the accounts of the CBG and commercial banks), including foreign currency deposits held by residents of The Gambia with commercial banks, will be transmitted within four weeks of the end of each month.

*Source: 1gmbea2024003-print-pdf - 3.      Adjuster: The cumulative floor on the central government domestic primary balance targets*

### 41.      Daily data on reserve money will be transmitted weekly within five business days of

### 1gmbea2024003-print-pdf - 41.      Daily data on reserve money will be transmitted weekly within five business days of

### Data Reporting Schedules (paragraphs 41–51)
- Daily data on reserve money will be transmitted weekly within five business days of the end of each week.
- Treasury Bill Market and Interbank Money Market:
  - Weekly data on the amounts offered and issued, net issuance, over/under subscription, and yields (interest rates) of the various instruments will be transmitted on a weekly basis within five business days of the end of each week.
  - Data on treasury bills and CBG bills outstanding (both at face value and at discounted value and including information on the distribution by bank and non-bank holders) will be transmitted on a monthly basis within six weeks of the end of each month.
  - Daily data on the interbank money market (interest rates, maturities, and volumes of transactions) will be transmitted weekly within five business days of the end of each week.
- External Sector Data:
  - The CBG will forward within four weeks of the end of each month, data on transactions in official reserves.
  - Daily interbank market exchange rates, defined as the simple average of the daily weighted average buying and selling rates, will be transmitted on a weekly basis within five business days of the end of the week.
  - Weekly interbank market exchange rates, defined as the simple average of the weekly weighted average buying and selling rates, will be transmitted on a monthly basis within seven days of the end of the month.
  - The CBG’s monthly average and end-month exchange rates, including those for all currencies in which foreign assets and liabilities are denominated, will be transmitted within seven days after the end of each month.
  - Daily data on foreign exchange intervention by the central bank will be transmitted weekly within five business days of the end of each week.
  - A detailed reserve statement with end-week data on net usable international reserves of the CBG will be transmitted weekly within five business days of the end of each week.
  - The CBG will forward monthly data on the volume of transactions (purchases, sales, and total) in the foreign exchange market by each major group of participants (CBG, commercial banks, and foreign exchange bureaus) in dalasi within seven days of the end of each month.
  - The CBG will publish daily on its website the official exchange rates reflecting the market conditions prevailing on that same day.
- Public Enterprises’ Data:
  - MoFEA will forward within eight weeks of the end of each quarter, data on monthly cash flow of NAWEC, GNPC, GAMTEL, GAMCEL, GCAA, SSHFC, and NFSPMC.
  - MoFEA will forward within eight weeks of the end of each quarter, data on the stock of consolidated Central Government’s stock of payment arrears to NAWEC at the end of each month.

### Program Performance (paragraphs 3–4)
- All quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) for end-December 2023 were met, including:
  - net domestic borrowing (NDB) of the central government;
  - domestic primary balance;
  - floor on stock of net usable international reserves (NIR);
  - ceiling on new external payment arrears of the central government;
  - new non-concessional external debt contracted or guaranteed by central government;
  - ceiling on outstanding stock of external public debt with original maturity of one year or less;
  - ceiling on new concessional external debt contracted or guaranteed by central government.
- All indicative targets (ITs) were met, including:
  - floor on total tax revenue;
  - ceiling on stock of net domestic assets of the central bank;
  - monthly ceiling on central bank credit to the central government at non-market terms;
  - floor on poverty-reducing expenditure.
- Structural benchmarks (SBs):
  - Four out of five SBs were met: setting-up a platform and command center for a single window of customs administration; signing performance contracts with four additional SOEs; prepared a revised draft law on AML/CFT aligned with the international AML/CFT standards; transmitted the Ombudsman reports for 2021 and 2022 to the National Assembly and published on the website.
  - The SB on the publication of the governance diagnostic report and the plan to implement the recommendations was missed for the end April 2024 target and has been rephased to end-August 2024 after corrective actions and tabling before Cabinet.

### Recent Economic Developments and Outlook (paragraphs 5–6)
- Real GDP growth expectations:
  - real GDP growth is expected to increase from 5.3 percent in 2023 to 5.8 percent in 2024.
  - In the medium term, growth is expected to stabilize around 5    percent.
- Inflation:
  - peaked at 18.5 percent in September 2023;
  - decelerated to 11 percent at end-April 2024.
- External sector:
  - international reserves remained ample at 4.9 months of import cover in 2023.
  - current account deficit is expected to narrow in 2024 and in the medium term despite increased import absorption for construction projects.
- Risk factors:
  - regional conflicts, volatility in global commodity prices, sudden global slowdown, inflationary and forex supply pressures, and shocks from natural disasters.

### Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability (paragraphs 7–11)
- Fiscal framework and actions:
  - authorities committed to the 2024 fiscal framework and to remain within the approved 2024 budget.
  - revenue collection by the Gambia Revenue Authority (GRA) for the first quarter of 2024 exceeded the target by a large margin.
  - plan to adjust domestic fuel pump prices in the event of a decline in global prices to recover previous revenue losses.
  - 2024 fiscal deficit anchored at 2.7 percent of GDP as approved by the National Assembly.
- Expenditure management:
  - reprioritized spending to accommodate OIC Summit costs; will align expenditure with available resources; strengthen expenditure controls; enforce cash management through IFMIS; rationalize and consolidate subvented agencies with MDAs; tighten overseas travels; execute infrastructure projects within available resources.
  - continue to strengthen social safety net programs, expand coverage, and improve targeting.
- Revenue administration reforms and initiatives:
  - operationalizing the single window platform; commenced e-tracking of transit trucks; completed digital weigh bridge at the seaport.
  - signed PPP contract to implement an IT system for excisable goods, revenue assurance for mobile network operators and fuel marking; commenced Digital Tracking System (DTS) in early 2024.
  - developed standard procedural manual for in-land border posts; commenced rental tax compliance system and created specialized rental income tax office in 2023; plan to create a database of rental property for taxation.
  - procure an Integrated Tax Administration System (ITAS); fully digitalize VAT collection with smart invoice technology; boost audit capacity to audit all GSM operators during 2024.
  - plan to adopt revised Gambia Investment and Export Promotion Agency (GIEPA) act with more limited tax incentives and other tightening measures for SICs.
  - plan to apply tax withholding on contractors for all donor-funded projects; bolster non-tax revenue collection, including administrative fees.
- Debt strategy:
  - implementing medium-term fiscal framework to reduce public debt while addressing development needs.
  - utilize innovative financing (Asset Recycling Program) without worsening debt dynamics.
  - mitigate fiscal risks from contingent liabilities of SOEs and PPPs; strengthen external buffers; avoid contracting non-concessional borrowing and adhere to agreed concessional borrowing plan under the ECF-supported program.

### Monetary, Exchange Rate, and Financial Sector Policies (paragraphs 12–13)
- Monetary policy:
  - CBG committed to tight monetary policy to fight inflation.
  - Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will monitor inflation and stand ready to further tighten monetary conditions as warranted.
  - Policy tools include the monetary policy rate, issuance of CBG bills, use of the standing deposit facility window, and changes in the reserve requirement ratio.
  - target to steadily decline inflation to the CBG’s medium-term target of 5 percent.
- Exchange rate and FX management:
  - CBG published a new foreign exchange policy and revised FX bureau guidelines in December 2023.
  - committed to maintaining a market-determined exchange rate reflecting fundamentals; finalize and approve a forex intervention policy limiting interventions to alleviating excess market volatility and to build foreign exchange reserves.

### Financial Sector Measures and Safeguards (paragraph 14)
- Financial sector condition and safeguards:
  - sector remains sound with ample liquidity and low NPLs, but authorities remain vigilant to vulnerabilities.
  - CBG provided loans to two public entities due to socio-economic emergencies; all existing loans provided by the CBG to general government entities outside the central government will be guaranteed by the central government.
  - CBG will not provide lending to general government entities at non-market terms that exceeds 10 percent of the previous year’s tax revenues.
  - implementing National Financial Inclusion Strategy: new payment system and capital market, expansion of mobile money and fintech, expansion of women enterprise and youth development funds, strengthening supervisory and regulatory framework.
  - commercial banks required to augment paid-up capital with three tranches of GMD100 million each year from December 2024 to December 2026.

### Structural Reforms (paragraphs 15–19)
- Business environment and digitalization:
  - Recovery-Focused National Development Plan (RF-NDP) finalized to support recovery and private sector-led inclusive growth.
  - setting-up digital platform for business registration; expanding social registry; revamping Credit Reference Bureau; program for digital land registration.
- Public financial management (PFM) and governance:
  - roadmap for program-based budgeting and pilot roll-out for the 2025 draft budget; extend IFMIS to all new donor and government-funded projects.
  - pipeline of appraised investment projects based on GSRB prioritization tool; expedite adoption of PFM Act and PPP bill.
  - piloting gender-based budgeting to strengthen transparency, accountability, and results orientation.
- State-owned enterprises (SOEs) reforms:
  - signed performance contracts with four additional SOEs; plan to publish audited financial accounts up to 2023 for all SOEs on their websites.
  - finalizing and enacting regulations of the SOEs Act and GPPA procurement act; initiated privatization of GAMCEL; rationalizing subsidies to NFSPMC and NAWEC.
- Anti-corruption, AML/CFT, and audit reforms:
  - anti-corruption bill passed.
  - completed draft law on AML/CFT aligned with international standards; transmission of Ombudsman reports for 2021 and 2022 to the National Assembly and publication on the website.
  - Cabinet will adopt a revised National Audit Office (NAO) Act to strengthen NAO effectiveness and independence.
- Climate resilience:
  - building climate resilience to mitigate floods, storms, droughts, and coastal erosion; plan to close financing gap through domestic resource mobilization, rationalization of spending, and enhancing public investment efficiency.
  - engaging IMF technical assistance on Climate Policy Diagnostics and Climate-PIMA; working with World Bank to initiate Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) preparations in summer of 2024.

### Conclusion (paragraph 20)
- Authorities remain on track with reform implementation despite multiple shocks.
- Re-affirm commitment to the ECF arrangement and to consolidating gains made under the previous ECF program.
- Request Executive Directors’ support in completing the first ECF review and associated requests to catalyze additional donor support and address structural challenges.

*Source: 1gmbea2024003-print-pdf*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2024/english/1gmbea2024003-print-pdf.pdf_