## National Development Strategy 2025–2044 — Preface, Challenges, Lessons, Pillars, Scenarios, Targets and Implementation (content unit 1mozea2024004) ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [National Development Strategy 2025–2044 — Preface, Challenges, Lessons, Pillars, Scenarios, Targets and Implementation (content unit 1mozea2024004)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2024/english/1mozea2024004.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2024/english/1mozea2024004.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2024/english/1mozea2024004.pdf.json) --- ### Overview, vision and mission - Revised NDS period: 2025-2044; aims to guide a middle-income future emphasizing equity, security, well-being, sustainability and competitiveness. - Vision (paragraph 87): "To be a prosperous middle-income country, where equity, security and the well-being of the population are guaranteed, sustainability and competitiveness are priorities". - Mission: promote human, economic and environmental development through integrated and results-oriented policies and actions. - Legal requirement: NDS 2025-2044 must be assessed and approved by the Assembly of the Republic in compliance with SISTAFE Law article 14(3) of Law 14/2020 of 23 December. ### Strategic pillars (five) - Pillar I — Structural Transformation of the Economy. - Pillar II — Social and Demographic Transformation. - Pillar III — Infrastructure, Organization and Territorial Planning. - Pillar IV — Governance, Peace and Security. - Pillar V — Environmental Sustainability, Climate Change and Circular Economy. ### Major lessons learned (implementation to 2023) - Importance of macroeconomic stability, flexibility in policy, public-private partnerships, decentralization, civil society engagement, innovation, civil service capacity building, robust monitoring & evaluation, environmental sustainability, and regional/international collaboration. - NDS review process: 2021-2024 in six phases including public consultation and harmonization; resulting priorities include investment promotion, vocational education, STEM strengthening, health access, agricultural/ tourism potential, industrial revitalization, technological innovation, climate-resilient infrastructure, national security and formalizing the informal sector. ### Key achievements 2015–2023 (selected quantitative outcomes) - GDP growth: "around 4.1% in 2022 and 5.01% in 2023." - Unemployment: reduced from "20.7% to 18.4% by 2023." - Infant mortality: reduced from "64 to 48 per 1,000 live births by 2023." - Maternal mortality: reduced from "489 to 289 per 100,000 live births by 2023." - Antiretroviral treatment coverage: "70% of people living with HIV by 2023." - Life expectancy: increased from "53.8 to 56.1 years by 2023." - Access to energy: increased from "24% to 39% by 2023." - Access to safe water: increased from "50.3% to 53.3% by 2023." - Access to safe sanitation: increased from "27% to 31.7% by 2023." - Agricultural and industrial programs cited: PNISA, SUSTENTA, ProIRN, PRONAI (approved 2021). ### Major challenges identified (selected) - Macroeconomic instability, terrorism and military hostilities (north/center), withdrawal of General Budget Support (2015), cyclones (Kenneth, Idai, Freddie), COVID-19 impacts, rapid population growth, infrastructure deficits, dependence on low-productivity agriculture and extractive industries, limited electricity access, endemic corruption, climate change vulnerabilities. ### Causes of poverty (paragraph 73) - Rapid population growth; poor employment opportunities; inequality of income and access to resources; poor investment in essential infrastructure. ### SWOT summary (selected) - Strengths: geostrategic location; young economically active population; natural resource potential; tourism potential; multimodal transport infrastructure; biophysical diversity; domestic and foreign markets. - Weaknesses: macroeconomic instability and weak state financial capacity; low production and productivity; low quality human capital and technology; predominance of informal sector; poor basic service provision; infrastructure deficits; poor institutional performance; corruption. - Opportunities: favorable demographics (demographic dividend); end of armed conflict in centre and DDR outcomes; growing international commodity demand; international respect and trust; energy transition (renewables). - Threats: international economic/political shocks; climate change and natural disasters; violent extremism and insecurity; organized crime and terrorism; social inequalities; pandemics and health emergencies. ### Main objective and specific objectives (6.2) - Main objective: "Promote sustainable, inclusive, equitable and resilient development", driven by economic growth, improved quality of life and reduced inequalities. - Selected specific objectives include: - i. Boost sustainable and competitive economic growth by diversifying the production base and promoting industrialization. - ii. Stimulate sustainable, inclusive and equitable human development (STEM, demographic transition). - iii. Invest in modern, resilient infrastructure to integrate territories. - iv. Strengthen institutions, justice system, transparency and anti-corruption. - v. Promote peace and security. - vi. Promote the energy transition (natural gas as transition fuel; expand renewables). - vii. Strengthen national and international cooperation. - viii. Promote environmental sustainability and circular economy principles. ### Development model and key strategic sectors - Core aim: structural transformation, diversification, industrial base strengthening. - Main strategic sectors: Agriculture (corridor-based approach: Pemba-Lichinga; Nacala; Zambezi Valley; Beira; Limpopo; Maputo corridors), Energy (diversify matrix; hydro, solar, wind, biomass; natural gas as transition fuel), Tourism (designated destinations), Mining (local processing, value addition), Industry (industrial parks, agro-industry, renewable tech). - Strategic support sectors: Human and Social Capital Development (STEM, vocational training), Services (financial, trade, transport, communications, logistics), Infrastructure (transport, ports, energy, water, digital), Governance and Environment. ### Macroeconomic scenarios (base year 2023; two scenarios to 2044) - Scenarios: Reference scenario (Base Scenario) and Structural transformation ("NDS Scenario"). - Table (selected figures, Base = 2023): - Growth rate incl. LNG: Base 5.0; 2025-2029 9.0; 2030-2034 9.3; 2040-2044 9.2; 20-year average 8.8. - GDP per capita incl. LNG (USD): Base 605.9; 2025-2029 1,053.9; 2030-2034 1,676.1; 2040-2044 3,309.3; 20-year average 2,077.6. - Growth rate excl. LNG: Base 4.4; 2025-2029 5.7; 2030-2034 8.1; 2040-2044 10.5; 20-year average 8.4. - GDP per capita excl. LNG (USD): Base 605.9; 2025-2029 948.6; 2030-2034 1,324.8; 2040-2044 2,925.0; 20-year average 1,767.1. - Population (10^6): Base 31.6; 2025-2029 34.4; 2030-2034 38.8; 2040-2044 47.0; 20-year average 40.9. - Population growth rate: Base 2.5; 2025-2029 2.3; 2030-2034 2.1; 2040-2044 1.8; 20-year average 2.0. - Sectoral projected growth (selected, Table 3): - Primary including LNG: Base 6.0% → 2025-2029 19.4% → 2030-2034 10.4% → 2040-2044 6.1% → 20-year average 10.6%. - Primary without LNG: Base 6.0% → 2025-2029 7.3% → 2030-2034 8.4% → 2040-2044 8.1% → 20-year average 8.0%. - Secondary: Base 1.8% → 2025-2029 4.0% → 2030-2034 8.2% → 2040-2044 12.1% → 20-year average 8.8%. - Tertiary: Base 3.7% → 2025-2029 4.7% → 2030-2034 6.6% → 2040-2044 8.5% → 20-year average 6.9%. - Real GDP growth rate inc. LNG: Base 4.4% → 2025-2029 9.0% → 2030-2034 9.3% → 2040-2044 9.2% → 20-year average 8.8%. - Real GDP growth rate without LNG: Base 4.4% → 2025-2029 5.7% → 2030-2034 8.1% → 2040-2044 10.5% → 20-year average 8.4%. - Labor force composition projection (selected): - By 2044 more than 50% of the economically active population will be absorbed by non-agricultural sectors. - Secondary sector (industry) labor share could increase to "around 13.9%" (2040-2044 average). - Services sector expected to absorb "37.1%" (2040-2044). ### Pillar-specific high-level indicators and targets (selected extracts) - Pillar I — Structural Transformation (verbatim indicator targets): - Indicator 1: Average annual real GDP growth rate. - Target: "Increase the average annual growth rate of real GDP from 4.4 to 9.2 % incl. GNL, e 10.5 s/ GNL." - Indicator 2: Annual growth in real GDP per capita. - Target: "Increase the annual growth of real GDP per capita from USD 557.3 to USD 3,309.3 incl. GNL, e 2,925.0 s/ GNL." - Indicator 6: Expenditure on research and development as a % of GDP. - Target: "Increase spending on research and development as a % of GDP from 0.33 to 1.8." - Indicator 7: ease of doing business index (0–100). - Target: "Increase the ease of doing business index from 55 points to 66.9 points." - Pillar II — Social & Demographic (selected targets): - Population growth rate: reduce from "2.5% to 1.8%." - Average years of schooling: increase from "3.5 years to 5.4 years." - Illiteracy rate: reduce from "38.3% to 19.3%." - Life expectancy: increase from "55.7 to 76.0." - Infant mortality rate (per 1000 live births): reduce from "39% to 17.2%." - Prevalence of chronic malnutrition in children under 5: reduce from "37% to 18.7%." - Proportion below national poverty line: reduce from "68.2% to 27.7%." - Multidimensional poverty: reduce from "53% to 24.2%." - GINI coefficient: reduce from "0.5 to 0.3." - Female participation rate in the EAP: increase from "83.1% to 93.5%." - Seats held by women in National Assembly: increase from "42.2% to 54.2%." - Pillar III — Infrastructure & Territorial (selected targets) - Water storage capacity (billion m3): increase from "10,047,610" to "14,710,706." - Freight traffic in Tons per km: increase from "15.716" to "44.357" (noting the source formatting). - Port handling in metric tons: increase from "48,227" to "100,004." - Electricity production in GWh: increase from "19286 GWh to 73000 GWh." - Percentage consuming water from safe source: increase from "53.6% to 85%." - Percentage with access to safe sanitation: increase from "31.7% to 68%." - Percentage with access to public-grid energy: increase from "39% to 100%." - Net primary school enrollment rate: increase from "112.8% to 128.4%"; net secondary from "43.4% to 57.8%." - Number of tourist businesses opened: increase from "2,848 to 11,792." - Delimited territorial units: increase from "884 to 1695." - Pillar IV — Governance, Peace & Security (selected targets) - Political stability and absence of violence/terrorism (0–100): increase from "11.3 to 63.4." - Rule of Law (0–100): increase from "15.9 to 54.5." - Government Effectiveness (0–100): increase from "22.6 to 56.9." - Control of Corruption (0–100): increase from "15.9 to 42." - Resolution rate of court cases: increase from "62.0% to 100%." - Time to resolve disputes (months): reduce from "6 months to 3 months." - Degree of user satisfaction with public administration (0–10): increase from "2.9 to 5.3." - Pillar V — Environmental Sustainability (selected targets) - Urban Structure Plans: develop from "2 to 10." - Hectares reclaimed: increase from "181,213 Ha to 220,265.5 ha." - Area with updated topographic maps Km2: increase from "30,000.0 Km2 to 50,188.9 km2." - Environmental Performance Index (0–100): increase from "31.7 points to 59.9 points." - Capacity to forecast/respond to extreme events (days): reduce from "5 days to 2 days." - Participation of companies/institutions in circular economy programs (%): increase to "35%." ### Priority programs (selected by pillar) - Pillar I: Macroeconomic Stability; Production, Productivity, Diversification and Competitiveness; Business Environment; Employment, Entrepreneurship and Dignified Work; Scientific and Technological Research and Innovation. - Pillar II: Population and Human Capital; Protection, Assistance, Social Inclusion and Equity; Youth Program; Culture and Sport; Gender. - Pillar III: Economic Infrastructure; Social Infrastructure; Administration Infrastructure; Integrated Territorial Development and Sustainable Infrastructure. - Pillar IV: National Defense, Internal and State Security; Democracy and Participation; Reform and Modernization of Public Administration; Administrative and Financial Decentralization; Strengthening Prevention of and Fight Against Corruption; Cooperation. - Pillar V: Environmental Management; Climate Change and Disaster Management; Circular Economy. ### Financing, indicative cost estimates and modalities - Financing sources: government revenues (direct and indirect taxes, fees), improved tax administration, natural resource revenues (Sovereign Fund Law No. 1/2024 of January 09), loans and external financing (multilateral, bilateral, partners), Public-Private Partnerships (PPP), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), national and international funds, and expense management/efficiency gains. - Indicative 20-year cost estimates (2025-2044) — table values (Million MZN / Million USD): - Pillar I Structural Transformation of the Economy: 11,283,431,714 (Million MZN) | 176,579,526 (Million USD) - Pillar II Social and Demographic Transformation: 1,528,824,769 (Million MZN) | 23,925,270 (Million USD) - Pillar III Infrastructure, Organization and Territorial Planning: 1,580,288,585 (Million MZN) | 24,730,651 (Million USD) - Pillar IV Governance, Peace and Security: 1,364,647,435 (Million MZN) | 21,355,985 (Million USD) - Pillar V Environmental Sustainability, Climate Change and Circular Economy: 1,092,255,225 (Million MZN) | 17,061,897 (Million USD) - Grand Total: 16,849,447,728 (Million MZN) | 263,653,329 (Million USD) - Additional statement: "The indicative estimates for development funding over the 20 years could be 16.8 billion Meticais, corresponding to USD 263.7 billion." - Resource allocation mechanisms: public budget prioritization, specific development funds, tax incentives and subsidies; emphasis on efficiency and transparency (SISTAFE, monitoring tools). ### Implementation, governance, monitoring and evaluation - Operationalization instruments: national program portfolio, Sectoral/Territorial/Municipal Strategic Plans (10-year horizon), Five-Year Programs and Plans (5-year horizon), Medium-Term Fiscal Scenario (MTFS, 3-year), Economic and Social Plan and State Budget (PESOE, annual). - Institutional roles and oversight: - Council of Ministers (supervisory; meets quarterly), Office of the Prime Minister (implementation oversight), Ministry overseeing Planning and Finance (coordination, resource mobilization), central/provincial/municipal bodies (execution and reporting), National Development Observatories (participatory dialogue). - National Assembly, Provincial Assembly, Municipal Assembly, Administrative Court (oversight and legality). - Monitoring and evaluation cadence: - Annual reports via Balance of Execution and Implementation of PESOE. - Mid-term evaluation every five (5) years. - Final evaluation at end of strategy period. - Data and indicators: use SISTAFE monitoring & evaluation subsystem and INE reports; selection prioritizes availability and monitorability, with expectation of adding indicators over time. ### Risks and mitigation (selected) - Planning assumption: optimistic average growth "9.2% by 2044" with risks including security in the north and LNG project resumption. - i. Risk of weak consolidation of fiscal balance: - Drivers: macro shocks, climatic shocks, violent extremism, oil price volatility. - Mitigation: responsible fiscal policies, structural reforms (tax, social security, administrative), productivity stimulation. - ii. Risk of poor diversification: - Drivers: resource dependence, poor agricultural linkages, regulatory barriers, low workforce qualifications. - Mitigation: policies linking agriculture to industry, value chain development, workforce training, infrastructure investment. - iii. Risk of imbalance between economic, social and environmental progress: - Mitigation: equity- and sustainability-focused policies, social safety nets, environmental policies including gas emissions certification and green taxes. - iv. Risk of increased migratory flows: - Drivers: disasters, conflict, regional crises. - Mitigation: migration policy, integration into labor market, international cooperation. ### Key social and human development statistics (selected baseline/current) - Population: "approximately 32.42 million inhabitants"; population growth rate: "2.5% per year"; young (15–35) ≈ "34%"; under 15 ≈ "47%" (INE 2023). - Dependency ratios: country's dependency "103.2%"; young dependency "95.9%"; rural dependency "115.6%"; urban dependency "83.1%". - Workforce and employment: workforce = "49.2% of the total population"; EAP absorption by informal/casual/unpaid work "about 18.4%"; EAP in primary activities "74.7%"; secondary "4.4%"; tertiary "20.2%". - Health & nutrition: - "67% of the population have access to a health facility." - Population-to-doctor ratio: "5.9 doctors per 100,000 inhabitants." - Disease prevalence: HIV/AIDS "12.5%"; Malaria "392/1000hab."; Tuberculosis "350/100.000hab." - Hypertension "39.0%"; Diabetes "7.4%". - Chronic malnutrition in children under 5: "37%"; acute malnutrition "4.1%"; acute food insecurity "10%". - Infant mortality: "39%"; neonatal mortality "24%". - Average distance to Health Unit for remote inhabitants: "12 km in 2021/22" (WHO recommendation: 10km). - Education: - Illiteracy age 15+: "38.3% (2022)"; illiteracy by sex: women "49.2%", men "25.9%"; by area: rural "52.3%", urban "19.7%". - Primary level attendance: "52.4% of the population of all ages." - Population aged 15–19 attending secondary (first cycle): "32.4%." - Pupil-to-teacher ratio in basic education: "64.3 pupils to one teacher" (overall average); primary pupil-teacher ratio baseline "58.4" with target reduction to "38.7" by 2039-2043. - Poverty and social protection: - Consumption poverty: increased from "46.1% in 2014/15 to 68.2% in 2019/20, then slightly reduced to 65.0% from 2019/20 to 2022." - IOF 2022 poverty rates: rural "68.4%", urban "58.4%"; north "70.2%", center "65.6%", south "54.8%." - Multidimensional poverty: "55% in 2014/15 to 53.1% in 2022." - GINI coefficient: "0.51" (recent); earlier "0.47 in 2014/15." - Basic Social Security beneficiaries: increased from "254,000 to 384,000"; social transfers from "0.47% of GDP to 0.73% of GDP." - Coverage: only "6.8% of the Mozambican population is covered by the social protection system"; children coverage "0.1" (proportion); effective access to at least one social protection benefit in 2023: "5.4% of the total population." - Internally displaced people due to conflict in Cabo Delgado: "around one million people were displaced in December 2022." ### Selected infrastructure and service baseline figures - Access to energy (public grid lighting): increased from "30.1% in 2019/20 to 33% in 2022"; urban "75.3%"; rural "12.8%". - Access to safe water: increased from "49.6% in 2019/20 to 53.6% in 2022"; urban "78.2%"; rural "41.1%". - Access to safe sanitation: increased from "31% in 2019/20 to 31.7% in 2022"; urban "60.8%"; rural "16.9%". - Housing materials trends: dwellings with conventional roofing increased "39.4% to 47.5% (2014/19 to 2022)"; dwellings with conventional flooring increased "34% to 35.9% (2019/20 to 2022)". ### Implementation institutions and oversight - Implementation governance: Council of Ministers; Office of the Prime Minister; Ministry overseeing Planning and Finance (coordination and resource mobilization); central, provincial and municipal bodies for execution; National Development Observatories for public participation. - Oversight institutions: National Assembly; Provincial and Municipal Assemblies; Administrative Court. *Source: 1mozea2024004 — National Development Strategy 2025-2044 (Government of the Republic of Mozambique) — chapter extracts including Preface, Executive Summary, Challenges and Opportunities, Lessons Learned, Pillars, Macroeconomic Scenarios, Targets, Implementation and Financing.* ### Preface ............................................................................................................ 8 ### Preface ### Overview - The Government of the Republic of Mozambique presents the National Development Strategy 2025-2044 as an essential guide to a prosperous, middle-income future emphasizing equity, security, well-being, sustainability, and competitiveness. - The Government invites all Mozambicans and stakeholders (Government, Private Sector, Civil Society, Academics, Religious, Cooperation Partners, Local Communities and others) to participate in the Strategy's implementation. - The Strategy aims to promote economic and social development that is sustainable, inclusive, equitable and fair, with a diversified and efficient economy driven by a strengthened private sector and a focus on well-being and improving quality of life. - The successful implementation of the Strategy depends on active participation and collaboration across society. ### Key messages from the Preface - National unity, courage, determination and hard work are highlighted as necessary to overcome development challenges. - The Government expresses deep gratitude to all segments of society (private sector, civil society, cooperation partners, academia, local communities, religious groups, political parties, young people, children and others) for collaboration in the Strategy's preparation and expects continued partnerships during implementation. - Rallying call: "United and determined, with a spirit of hard work and dedication, together we will rebuild a better Mozambique for everyone!" --- ### Executive Summary — Main Findings and Rationale ### Purpose and scope of the revision - The National Development Strategy (NDS) was revised for the 2025-2044 period to guide new priorities and respond to changes in the legal, conjunctural and structural context of the economy, planning and international commitments. ### Legal, structural, planning and international drivers for revision - Legal: Ensure adjustment of reforms to the legal framework on the functioning of the State Financial Administration System (SISTAFE), the Decentralization Package and the Sovereign Fund Law. - National economic situation and structure: Adjust policies and strategies in an integrated and participatory manner considering: - Demographic changes, such as population growth and the rural exodus to urban areas which puts pressure on the demand for basic services and infrastructures. - Climate change and vulnerabilities to natural disasters, such as floods and droughts, threatening infrastructure, environmental security and population welfare. - Terrorism in the North of the country as a threat to internal security, regional stability and national development. - Kidnappings and abductions as threats to personal security and public order. - Planning: Ensure Planning and Budgeting instruments are articulated and aligned with long-term objectives. - International commitments: Align national policies with international commitments (e.g.: ODS; Paris Agreement, among others). ### NDS review process - The review process took place over the 2021-2024 period and comprised six main phases: - Phase (i) Preparation of preliminary documents and official launch of the NDS review; - Phase (ii) Public consultation at national level; - Phase (iii) Harmonization and appraisal of the proposal by the various segments, and publication on the website of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (www.mef.gov.mz); - Phase (iv) Submission to government forums and the Portuguese Parliament; - Phase (vi) Publication and Dissemination. - Resulting priorities from consultations include: encouraging public and private investment; promoting vocational and professional education; strengthening STEM in the National Education System; improving access to and quality of health care; maximizing agricultural, tourist and human potential; promoting industries and revitalizing industrial parks; boosting technological innovation; improving public service provision; planning infrastructure with climate vulnerability in mind; strengthening national security and defense; integrating the informal sector into development policies with a focus on youth employment; enhancing resilience to climate change and natural disasters; and strengthening public institutions. ### Vision and mission adjustments - The 2025-2044 Vision is inspired by the 2025 Agenda vision (“by 2025, Mozambican men and women will use their capacity, energy and knowledge to build an entrepreneurial and continuously successful country") and the NDS 2015-2035 Vision ("Mozambique a prosperous, competitive, sustainable, secure and inclusive country."). - The vision remains centered on building a middle-income society where equity, security and well-being are guaranteed, with sustainability and competitiveness as priorities. - The mission was refined to promote human, economic and environmental development through integrated and results-oriented policies and actions. - The NDS 2025-2044 must be assessed and approved by the Assembly of the Republic in compliance with the legal command of the SISTAFE Law in article 14(3) of Law 14/2020 of 23 December. --- ### Strategic Pillars and Priorities ### Five Pillars (structure and emphases) - The revised Strategy is based on five main pillars: 1. Structural Transformation of the Economy 2. Social and Demographic Transformation 3. Infrastructure, Organization and Territorial Planning 4. Governance, Peace and Security 5. Environmental Sustainability, Climate Change and Circular Economy ### Pillar I — Structural Transformation of the Economy - Objective: Achieve sustainable, competitive and inclusive economic growth by stimulating diversification, increasing productivity and competitiveness. - Emphasis on industrialization and exploiting sectors with high potential for job creation, productivity and competitiveness based on development of agriculture, mining, tourism and energy. ### Pillar II — Social and Demographic Transformation - Objective: Promote sustainable, inclusive and equitable human development with focus on demographic transition, improving social indicators, reducing poverty and promoting social inclusion. - Emphasizes rapid population growth, food security, access to safe drinking water, energy and sanitation, housing and support for vulnerable groups. - Continues prioritization of inequality reduction and universal access to basic services with renewed focus on health, education, social protection and inclusion of vulnerable groups. ### Pillar III — Infrastructure, Organization and Territorial Planning - Objective: Promote sustainable and equitable territorial development integrating infrastructure, urban and rural planning and environmental management to guarantee fair access to public services and effective territorial organization. - Strengthened investment in infrastructure to promote regional development and territorial cohesion, and improved urban and rural planning for efficient and sustainable resource use. - Rationale for a dedicated infrastructure pillar: - Central role affecting all aspects of socio-economic development. - Explicit commitment to prioritize investments and actions in infrastructure. - Improves coordination and cohesion among sectors and actors. - Addresses specific infrastructure challenges (access in remote areas, deterioration of existing infrastructure). - Enhances responsibility, accountability and performance assessment in infrastructure policies. ### Pillar IV — Governance, Peace and Security - Objective: Strengthen and modernize government institutions, guarantee national and internal security, promote peace and justice, and create a safe and stable environment. - Focus areas: institutional integrity, security and stability; citizen participation; prevention and combat of crime and terrorism; national defense; social cohesion; access to justice; prevention of corruption. - Greater emphasis than previous strategy on institutional integrity, security and stability to address implementation challenges and promote sustainable, inclusive development. ### Pillar V — Environmental Sustainability, Climate Change and Circular Economy - Objective: Promote an integrated approach combining blue economy and green economy principles to protect ecosystems, use resources efficiently, reduce and recover waste, and design products for reuse, repair and recycling. - Aim to guarantee environmental protection, biodiversity, climate change mitigation and resilience to natural disasters while integrating environmental aspects into all development policies and projects. - Compared to the previous strategy, greater emphasis on climate change and natural disaster mitigation, natural resource management, circular economy and environmental integration across policies. --- *Preface — National Development Strategy 2025-2044 (Government of the Republic of Mozambique).* ### 6. Challenges and Opportunities: The challenges facing the country include the ### 6. Challenges and Opportunities: The challenges facing the country include the ### Major challenges and strategic opportunities - Challenges: - Need to diversify the economy. - Promote human development and strengthen human capital. - Develop modern and resilient infrastructure. - Ensure environmental protection and increase capacity to respond to damage and losses caused by disasters. - Increase resilience to disasters and climate change. - Implement effective measures to prevent and combat corruption. - Opportunities: - Potential for economic growth through innovation and industrialization. - Improvement of quality of life through education and empowerment. - Strengthening of environmental resilience and sustainability. - Promotion of a more efficient public administration. ### Targets and indicators (revised NDS focus areas) - Emphasis on the following targets: - (i) Increasing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) through economic diversification and promoting industrialization. - (ii) Improving education and health to ensure human development and strengthening human capital. - (iii) Developing modern and resilient infrastructure to promote connectivity and access to basic services. - (iv) Environmental protection to ensure long-term sustainability. - These targets are accompanied by key indicators to monitor progress and enable adjustments over time. ### Commitment, implementation framework, and operationalization - The revision of the National Development Strategy (NDS) is presented as a shared commitment to the country's future, aiming to strengthen capacity to address current challenges and build a prosperous and sustainable future. - The NDS is a strategic Planning and Budgeting instrument covering a 20-year horizon. - The NDS will be operationalized through the Planning and Budgeting Sub-system (SPO): Sectoral and Territorial Strategic Plans, the Five-Year Government Program (PGQ), the Five-Year Plan (PQ), the Five-Year Municipal Plan (PQM), the Medium-Term Fiscal Scenario, and the Economic and Social Plan and State Budget (PESOE). ### Context and rationale for the 2015-2035 NDS review - International context drivers: - Rapid technological advances and emerging geopolitical challenges affecting development prospects. - National context drivers: - Macroeconomic and political instability. - Rapid population growth and demographic changes. - Infrastructure deficits and precariousness. - Vulnerability to climate change and inequalities. - Lessons from the 2015-2035 period provided a basis for adjustment and strengthening of future efforts. ### Lessons learned and achievements (2015–2023) — key quantitative outcomes and programs - Economic scope - GDP: around 4.1% in 2022 and 5.01% in 2023. - Business environment reforms reduced number of procedures to start a business from 4 to 1, and reduced number of days for business licensing from 3 to 1. - Agricultural modernization and support programs: PNISA, SUSTENTA, ProIRN, Program to Support the Cashew Nut Value Chain, PROSUL. - PRONAI (National Program for Industrializing Mozambique) approved in 2021 to boost industrialization and economic diversification. - Unemployment rate reduced from 20.7% to 18.4% by 2023. - Social scope - Infant mortality rate reduced from 64 to 48 per 1,000 live births by 2023. - Maternal mortality rate reduced from 489 to 289 per 100,000 live births by 2023. - Antiretroviral treatment coverage reached 70% of people living with HIV by 2023. - Hiring of 9,787 new health professionals, doctors, health technicians and service agents. - Life expectancy increased from 53.8 to 56.1 years by 2023. - Introduction of free and compulsory education for children aged 6 to 12 increased primary enrollment. - Illiteracy rate fell from 49.9% to 39.9% in 2023. - Teenage pregnancy rates fell by 15%; significant increase in use of modern contraceptive methods among women of childbearing age. - Basic Social Subsidy Program (PSSB) expanded to reach more than 500,000 families living in poverty; assisted 1,746,079 households in situations of poverty and vulnerability between 2019-2023. - “Women Entrepreneurs” program reached more than 20,000 women; 25% increase in number of women starting small businesses. - Programs for students with disabilities increased enrollment of students with disabilities by 40% and improved completion rates among these students. - Governance scope - Peace and Reconciliation Agreement with Renamo led to Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR); 63% of former Renamo guerrillas demobilized and reintegrated, around 3,267 guerrillas. - 128 religious denominations and 37 religious associations registered. - 2018 constitutional revision introduced decentralization of executive power and mechanisms for transparency and accountability. - Decentralization transferred more powers and resources to provinces and municipalities with financial management autonomy. - Strengthened Central Anti-Corruption Office (GCCC) in 2015; high-profile investigations in 2017 resulting in convictions for corruption. - Creation of specialized courts and 2019 legal framework review to strengthen rule of law and judicial independence. - Infrastructure scope - N6 (Beira-Machipanda) road improvements facilitating trade and reducing travel time and logistic costs. - Maputo-Katembe Bridge inaugurated in 2018; project included 187 km of associated roads. - Nacala railway line improvements connecting port of Nacala to Malawi; rehabilitation and modernization of freight terminals. - Modernization of the Port of Beira: expanded quays, modernized cargo handling, improved rail and road access. - Expansion of Ressano Garcia Thermal Power Station to increase electricity generation capacity. - Investments in solar and wind energy; Mocuba Solar Power Plant added 40 MW to energy capacity. - Corumana Dam Water Supply Project to improve water supply in Maputo and Matola. - Access to energy increased from 24% to 39% by 2023. - Access to safe water increased from 50.3% to 53.3% by 2023. - Access to safe sanitation increased from 27% to 31.7% by 2023. - Environmental sustainability and climate change scope - National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (PNACC) implemented to increase resilience in agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and coastal ecosystem recovery programs. - Adoption of climate resilience programs, including Cabo Delgado Reconstruction Plan and the Integrated Resilience and Development Program for Northern Mozambique. - MozBio Program (started in 2015) strengthened network of conservation areas; creation and reinforcement of protected areas and sustainable management practices. - Quirimbas National Park conservation activities expanded, covering terrestrial and marine environments. - Collaborative conservation efforts in Niassa Special Reserve with Peace Parks Foundation strengthened law enforcement and reduced human-wildlife conflict. - Significant restoration of Zinave National Park from 2015 via a 20-year agreement between ANAC and Peace Parks Foundation. ### Key challenges identified from the 2015–2035 Strategy experience (detailed) - Macroeconomic instability from adverse shocks resulted in lower-than-expected growth, decreased investments, increased unemployment, and reduced government capacity to finance social programs and essential infrastructure. - Military hostilities in the center and north of the country, including terrorism in Cabo Delgado, generated population displacement, infrastructure destruction, increased security spending, reduced investment, interruption of development projects, and deterioration of the investment climate. - Abrupt withdrawal of international partners from General Budget Support in 2015 significantly affected financing and implementation of programs, reducing resources for development projects and increasing dependence on limited domestic resources. - Cyclones Kenneth, Idai and Freddie, and cyclical rains, floods and droughts required emergency assistance, reconstruction, and reallocation of resources, negatively impacting agriculture and food security. - COVID-19 pandemic caused severe consequences for public health, the economy and social structure, pressuring the health system, causing economic downturn, increasing unemployment and exacerbating social inequalities. - Rapid population growth and demographic changes increased pressure on public resources and services, necessitating expansion of health, education and infrastructure and presenting challenges in job creation. - Disparities in access to basic public services increased vulnerability and regional inequalities due to insufficient investment resources, extreme weather events, COVID-19 and rapid population growth. - Need to develop strategic infrastructure to support growth and modernization; delays cause logistical difficulties and limited market access. - Dependence on low-productivity agriculture and extractive industries has limited economic diversification and increased susceptibility to external shocks. - Limited access to electricity and modern energy, particularly in rural areas, restricted industrial development and living standards. - Natural disasters caused significant damage and losses, requiring continual emergency response and reconstruction and increasing community vulnerability. - Increasing vulnerabilities to climate change impacted agriculture, infrastructure and livelihoods, reducing productivity and increasing adaptation costs. - Endemic corruption undermined citizens' trust and governance effectiveness, diverting resources, causing inefficiency in public administration and reducing economic growth. *Source: 1mozea2024004 - 6. Challenges and Opportunities: The challenges facing the country include the* ### 18. Lessons learned: The main lessons learned during the implementation of the ### 18. Lessons learned: The main lessons learned during the implementation of the ### Main lessons learned - i. The importance of macroeconomic stability is crucial for sustainable economic growth, creating a favorable environment for investments and continued development. - ii. The need for flexible approaches is essential to face unforeseen challenges and changing circumstances, allowing for a more effective and agile response to crises. - iii. The relevance of public-private partnerships is fundamental to boosting development in strategic areas, harnessing the resources and expertise of the private sector to complement the government's efforts. - iv. The importance of the Decentralization Process is vital for efficient management adapted to local needs, promoting balanced regional development and reducing socio-economic inequalities. - v. The engagement of Civil Society is essential to ensure that policies and projects meet the needs and expectations of citizens, promoting transparency and accountability. - vi. The incorporation of innovative technologies and the promotion of innovation are crucial to improving efficiency, reducing costs and increasing the effectiveness of government initiatives. - vii. The continuous development of skills and the training of civil servants are essential to ensure that the public administration can respond effectively to emerging challenges. - viii. Robust monitoring and evaluation systems are key to tracking the progress of initiatives, allowing for timely adjustments and ensuring the effectiveness and efficiency of the policies implemented. - ix. The inclusion of environmental sustainability practices in development policies is crucial to ensure that economic growth does not compromise natural resources and environmental health. - x. Collaboration with neighboring countries and participation in regional and international initiatives are important to address common challenges and promote shared development. ### Rationale for the revision of the National Development Strategy (NDS) - 19. The NDS review is essential to ensure that the country continues on a path of sustainable development and prosperity. The review is based on comprehensive analysis of legal, institutional, international and situational contexts to guide public policies, planning and budgeting instruments, and ensure continuity of national development processes. ### 3.1 Legal Framework - 20. The NDS review is legally supported by a legal framework that includes the Decentralization Package, the State Financial Administration System Act (SISTAFE) and the Sovereign Wealth Fund Act. - i. The SISTAFE Law, Law 14/2020 of 23 December and Decree no. 26/2021, of 03 May, which regulates the State's financial and asset management, guaranteeing transparency, efficiency and responsibility in the application of public resources. - ii. The Decentralization Package, Law 4/2019 of May 31, which establishes guidelines for the transfer of powers and resources to local governments, promoting community participation in decision-making and policy implementation. However, to avoid a proliferation of strategies that may indicate different paths, making strategic and resource planning difficult, the NDS aims to guide the national development process in a single direction, to be followed by all segments. - iii. The Sovereign Fund Law, Law No. 1/2024 of January 09, which establishes the rules for the management of resources from the exploitation of natural resources, with a view to ensuring their sustainable use for the benefit of present and future generations. - 21. These legal instruments provide the necessary framework for the NDS review, ensuring that it complies with constitutional principles and current legislation. ### 3.2 Framework for the country's economic and structural issues - 22–25. The NDS review considers both conjunctural and structural challenges: - Conjunctural aspects (23): - i. Fluctuations in commodity prices, volatility in global financial markets, and the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the national economy. - ii. Other conjunctural factors such as extreme weather events and humanitarian crises that can affect the country's economic and social stability. - Structural aspects (24): - i. Demographic changes with an exponential growth of the population and the rural exodus justified by the demand for public services and other opportunities. - ii. Structural issues such as income inequality, limited access to quality education, and inadequate infrastructure. Addressing these structural problems is essential to promote inclusive and sustainable economic growth. - 25. By considering both conjunctural and structural aspects, the NDS revision identifies policies and creates programs that respond to the country's immediate needs. ### 3.3 Framework Within the National Planning System - 26. The NDS review is based on comprehensive analysis of existing planning instruments and various information sources: - i. Evaluation of the results of previous five-year plans revealed successes and challenges, pointing to the need to adjust planning instruments to current challenges such as adaptation to climate change, innovation and digital inclusion. - ii. Stakeholder feedback obtained through public consultations highlights the need for a more participatory and inclusive approach in planning instruments. - iii. The review aims to ensure that planning instruments are aligned with long-term strategic objectives. ### 3.4 Framework for International Commitments - 27. Alignment with international commitments is essential; the review specifically sought: - i. Ensure that national policies are aligned with the international commitments ratified by the country, with emphasis on: Agenda 2030 (Sustainable Development Goals), African Union Agenda 2063, SADC Vision 2050, the Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan 2020-2030 (RISDP), the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the SENDAI Framework for Disaster Reduction (SFDRR) 2030, the main global legal instruments on human rights and humanitarian issues. - ii. Strengthen national action against climate change, in line with the commitments set out in the Paris Agreement. - iii. Ensure that national policies promote a favorable trading environment, respecting international trade agreements. - iv. Adjust national policies to recognized international norms and standards in areas such as human rights, health, and the environment. - v. Seize opportunities for international cooperation and technical support to address shared challenges and promote sustainable development. ### IV. Participatory strategy review process - 28–29. Participation was central to the NDS revision. Methodology included: - i. Face-to-face and virtual participation of various parties: government, private sector, civil society, cooperation partners, academics, local communities, religious groups, political parties, young people, adolescents, among others, ensuring voices were heard even during COVID-19 restrictions. - ii. Holding discussion forums and using collaboration platforms to promote broad and inclusive participation. - iii. Maintaining continuous dialogue with the various segments involved, offering opportunities for interaction and updates throughout the process. - 30. The NDS review process took place over the 2021-2024 period and comprised phases: - i. Phase (i) Preparation of preliminary documents: - a. The concept note presenting the country's current situation and proposed future guidelines in economic, social, governance and environmental dimensions. - b. The official launch of the NDS review by H.E. the President of the Republic in September 2021. - c. Work teams at central level - the coordinating team at the MEF and sectoral teams including the state secretariats; at provincial level, joint provincial services and decentralized governance bodies to be set up. - ii. Phase (ii) Public consultation: - a. Making the NDS review concept note available on the Ministry of Economy and Finance's website (www.mef.gov.mz), to encourage debate and allow broad participation. - b. Announcing the process through the media, radio and television and a national newspaper, giving information about the start and explanation of the review process and how Mozambicans could participate. - c. Public consultation sessions organized by groups, areas and pillars, opening face-to-face and virtual debate at central level, in the provinces and in the districts. - iii. Phase (iii) Harmonization of the proposal with various segments, to improve and publish it on the Ministry of Economy and Finance's website (www.mef.gov.mz). - iv. Phase (iv) Submission to government forums and the Assembly of the Republic, which consists of assessing and approving the NDS. - v. Phase (vi) Publication and dissemination, which consists of distributing the 2025-2044 NDS at national level. - 31. Outcomes and impact: - Stakeholder contributions were incorporated directly into the revised document, strengthening legitimacy and commitment to implementation. - 32. Challenges and lessons learned: - Ensuring equal representation of all interest groups and managing varying expectations was a major challenge. - Transparency, effective communication, and openness to feedback were key to overcoming obstacles. - 33. The participatory process demonstrated the government's commitment to inclusive governance and the continued prioritization of stakeholder involvement in future strategic reviews. ### V. Current situation and development challenges #### 5.1 Economic Situation - 34. Historical growth: - Mozambique has experienced robust economic growth with an average Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of approximately 7.0% per year for almost two decades. - Recent slowdowns due to adverse extreme weather events, terrorism and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. - Average current Gross Domestic Product rate of 5.01% in 2023. - 35. Sector roles and challenge: - The agricultural, extractive, manufacturing and service sectors (including tourism) are fundamental pillars. - Significant challenges remain, notably economic diversification for sustainable and inclusive long-term growth. - 36. Primary sector characteristics and constraints: - Low productivity driven by: - (i) low level of access to and use of improved inputs; - (ii) low adoption of technologies and their limited transfer; - (iii) limited availability of agricultural services; - (iv) a deficit in production and transportation infrastructure; - (v) high seasonality; - (vi) limited agro-processing capacity; - (vii) growing climate vulnerability, which affects agricultural yields and food security. - Extractive subsector reliance on mega-projects that are not labor-intensive, while most of the economically active population remains in the agrarian sector, representing 75.4% of the workforce. - 37. Secondary sector constraints: - Poor performance of the manufacturing industry due to: - (i) inadequate infrastructure; - (ii) unfavorable investment climate (business environment); - (iii) high investment costs; - (iv) lags in technological advancement; - (v) low level of qualification of the workforce. #### 5.1.1 Evolution of the Economic Structure, Employment and Average Labor Productivity by Sector (in USD) - 38–39. Productive structure: - Tertiary sector (services) dominates with an average of 54.7%. - Primary sector (agrarian and extractive) average: 30.8%. - Secondary sector (industry) average: 14.5%. - Table 1: Evolution of the Economic Structure and Employment Ratio by Sector (selected figures) - Sector's share of GDP: - Primary sector: 2000 19.3; 2003 23.2; 2009 29.2; 2014 28.7; 2019 35.9; 2022 37.1 - Secondary sector: 2000 19.3; 2003 18.4; 2009 15.6; 2014 13.4; 2019 12.8; 2022 12.4 - Tertiary sector: 2000 61.4; 2003 58.4; 2009 55.2; 2014 57.9; 2019 51.3; 2022 50.5 - Jobs by sector: - Primary sector: 2000 87.0; 2003 80.5; 2009 80.4; 2014 71.0; 2019 70.3; 2022 75.4 - Secondary sector: 2000 4.0; 2003 3.4; 2009 4.6; 2014 4.9; 2019 8.5; 2022 4.4 - Tertiary sector: 2000 9.0; 2003 16.1; 2009 15.0; 2014 24.1; 2019 21.2; 2022 20.2 - Total across years: 100.0 (for each listed year) - Source: INE (IAFs and IOFs) - 40. Labor productivity: - Labor productivity is relatively low overall, highest in the industrial sector, services have improved and stabilized, primary sector average productivity has fallen in recent years. #### 5.2 Social Situation ##### 5.2.1 Demographic Trends - 41. Population growth and age structure: - Population growth rate: 2.5% per year. - Around 34% of the population are young people (15 to 35 years old). - Around 47% under the age of 15 (INE 2023). - 42. Estimated population and density: - Estimated population: approximately 32.42 million inhabitants. - Population density: 38 inhabitants Km2 (INE 2023). - Rapid population growth between 2017 and 2023 resulted in an increase of around 4.6 million inhabitants. - Young age group (15 to 35) growth rate: 3.6%. - 43. Dependency ratio: - Country's dependency ratio: 103.2%. - Young dependency: 95.9%. - Rural dependency: 115.6%. - Urban dependency: 83.1%. - 44–45. Workforce and employment composition: - Workforce consists of 49.2% of the total population, of which 84.9% are considered Economically Active Population (EAP). - Among the EAP, about 18.4% are not absorbed by the formal labor market, engaged in casual work, self-employment or unpaid family work. - Of the EAP absorbed by the labor market: - 74.7% engaged in primary activities; - 4.4% in secondary activities (manufacturing, construction and energy); - 20.2% in tertiary activities (transport and communications, commerce and finance, administrative services and others), with majority concentrated in commerce and finance. - Primary activities are mainly carried out by individuals with no formal education and who have never been to school; secondary and tertiary sector workers have education levels varying between primary and higher education. ##### 5.2.2 Trend of Basic Social Services ###### 5.2.2.1 Health & Nutrition - 46. Access to health services: - Around 67% of the population have access to a health facility. - Population satisfaction with health services increased from 53% in 2014/15 to 59.5% in 2022 (INE data, IOF, 2022). - 47. Health workforce ratio: - Population-to-doctor ratio: 5.9 doctors per 100,000 inhabitants. - WHO recommended ratio referenced as one doctor per 10,000 inhabitants. - 48. Disease profile and health challenges: - Communicable and vaccine-preventable diseases have reduced significantly. - Persistent and serious conditions: - HIV/AIDS: 12.5% - Malaria: 392/1000hab. - Tuberculosis: 350/100.000hab. - Increasing non-communicable disease indicators: - Hypertension: 39.0% - Diabetes: 7.4% - Other rising concerns: breast, cervical and prostate cancer, trauma, excessive alcohol and tobacco consumption and drug abuse. *Source: 1mozea2024004 - 18. Lessons learned: The main lessons learned during the implementation of the* ### 49. Chronic malnutrition persists, in Mozambique approximately 37% of ### 1mozea2024004 - 49. Chronic malnutrition persists, in Mozambique approximately 37% of ### Health and nutrition - 37% of children under 5 suffer from chronic malnutrition. - 4.1% of children under 5 suffer from acute malnutrition. - 10% of the population is in a situation of acute food insecurity. - Despite progress in reducing mortality and increasing access to health care, persistent challenges include: - High infant mortality: 39%. - High neonatal mortality: 24%. - Chronic malnutrition rates for children remain above 35%. - Average distance to a Health Unit for inhabitants living farther away: 12 km in 2021/22 (WHO recommendation: 10km). - Waiting times, lack of essential medication and medical equipment contribute to population dissatisfaction with health services. ### Education - Education recognized as key for socio-economic development and productivity. - System failures and challenges: - The system fails to fully literate children and adolescents by age 15. - Major rural–urban inequalities in early primary learning despite improvements. - Overall average pupil-to-teacher ratio in basic education: 64.3 pupils to one teacher. - Need for significant investment in vocational and higher education training to match labor market demands. - Indicators and statistics: - Illiteracy rate for people aged 15 and over decreased from 39.9% in 2019/20 to 38.3% in 2022. - Illiteracy by sex: women 49.2%, men 25.9% (IOF, 2022). - Illiteracy by area: rural 52.3%, urban 19.7% (IOF, 2022). - Primary level attendance: 52.4% of the population of all ages. - Population aged 15–19 attending secondary level of the first cycle: 32.4%. - Most of the population has completed elementary school: 18.8%; 45.8% have not completed any level of schooling. - Infrastructure and quality challenges: - Pre-school and secondary school infrastructure insufficient for fair access, quality, and equity. - Free distribution of school books does not fully meet student needs. - Overcrowding, lack of classrooms, shortage of essential water and sanitation in many schools, and shortage of qualified teachers. - High levels of school wastage: high dropouts (especially girls), failure rates, and low completion rates. ### Income and employment - Youth unemployment and labor market: - Youth out of employment, education or training: 33.4%. - General unemployment rate in 2022: 18.4% (INE). - Urban unemployment: city 31%, province of Maputo 36.5%. - Rural unemployment: around 12%. - Unemployment among young people aged 15 to 24 until 2023: 7.74% (peak 8.67% in 2021). - Informal economy represents a significant portion of employment and presents precarious conditions and job insecurity. - Policy focus: strengthen connection between training offered and job market demands to maximize employment opportunities. ### Housing and infrastructure - Housing stock and materials: - Population in dwellings with conventional roofing increased from 39.4% in 2014/19 to 47.5% in 2022. - Population in dwellings with non-conventional roofing decreased from 60.7% in 2014/19 to 52.5% in 2022. - Dwellings with conventional flooring increased from 34% in 2019/20 to 35.9% in 2022. - Dwellings with non-conventional flooring decreased from 66% in 2019/20 to 64% in 2022 (INE, IOF 2022). - Around 52.4% of the population live in dwellings with grass, thatch or palm thatch roofs (rural 68.2%, urban 21.3%). - Approximately 33.9% live in dwellings with adobe (rammed earth) floors; 30% live in dwellings with bare floors (rural ~43% and 38.1%, respectively). #### Water - Access to water from a safe source increased from 49.6% in 2019/20 to 53.6% in 2022. - Urban safe water consumption: about 78.2%. - Rural safe water consumption: 41.1% (INE, IOF 2022). - Remaining challenges: - 46.4% of the population does not consume water from a safe source. - 28.7% rely on an unprotected well. - 12% rely on a river, lake or pond. #### Sanitation - Access to safe sanitation increased from 31% in 2019/20 to 31.7% in 2022. - Urban safe sanitation use: 60.8%. - Rural safe sanitation use: 16.9% (INE, IOF 2022). - Remaining challenges: - 42.2% of households use an unimproved latrine. - 26.1% have no latrine/toilet or practice open defecation. #### Energy - Use of electricity from the public grid for lighting increased from 30.1% in 2019/20 to 33% in 2022. - Urban public-grid lighting: about 75.3%. - Rural public-grid lighting: 12.8% (INE, IOF 2022). - Main national lighting sources: - Battery: around 38.3% overall (rural 50.2%, urban 14.9%). - Firewood for lighting: around 8.1% overall (rural 11.5%, urban 1.4%). ### Gender - UNDP gender inequality index (2022): Mozambique ranked 185th out of 191 countries, value 0.537. - Reproductive health: - Maternal mortality rate improved from 480 to 289. - Pregnancy rate among adolescents increased from 137.8 to 165.8. - Empowerment: - Percentage of parliamentary seats held by women improved from 39.6 to 42. - Percentage of the population with at least secondary education improved for both sexes (M from 1.4 to 10.8 and H from 6.2 to 20.2), but women remain disadvantaged relative to men. - Economic activity: - Labor market participation decreased for both sexes (W from 85.5 to 77.7 and M from 82.8 to 78.9). ### Social protection - Poverty and inequality: - 68.2% of Mozambicans living below the poverty line. - GINI coefficient: 0.51. - Basic Social Security (2010–2023) advances: - Number of beneficiaries increased from 254,000 to 384,000. - Value of social transfers increased from 0.47% of GDP to 0.73% of GDP. - Public spending on social action programs increased from 0.2% of GDP to 0.51% of GDP. - Remaining challenges and coverage gaps: - Only 6.8% of the Mozambican population is covered by the social protection system. - Proportion of children covered by social protection benefits: 0.1. - Effective access to at least one social protection benefit in 2023 covered only 5.4% of the total population. - Coverage for the elderly population: 21.7%. - Coverage for children: 4.2%. - Expenditure on social protection: 0.21% of GDP. - Public expenditure on the non-contributory system: 0.12% of GDP. - Internally displaced people increased due to conflict in Cabo Delgado; around one million people were displaced in December 2022. ### Trends in poverty - Consumption poverty estimates: - Increased from 46.1% in 2014/15 to 68.2% in 2019/20, then slightly reduced to 65.0% from 2019/20 to 2022. - IOF 2022 poverty rates: rural 68.4%, urban 58.4%; north 70.2%, center 65.6%, south 54.8% (MEF, Poverty Assessment, 2021). - Multidimensional poverty: - Rate changed from 55% in 2014/15 to 53.1% in 2022, indicating some improvements in access to education and safe drinking water. - Persistent challenges in adequate housing, access to safe water and sanitation, electricity, and possession of durable goods, particularly in rural areas where 66.6% of the population resides. - Inequality: - GINI coefficient increased from 0.47 in 2014/15 to 0.51 in 2019/20, more pronounced in rural areas and northern regions. - Emergence of pockets of food insecurity and hunger driven by rising food prices, climatic shocks affecting agricultural production and transport, and the terrorism situation in the north. *Source: 1mozea2024004 - 49. Chronic malnutrition persists, in Mozambique approximately 37% of* ### 73. The causes of poverty in the country are diverse and interconnected and ### The causes of poverty in the country are diverse and interconnected and ### Causes of poverty (paragraph 73) - Rapid population growth that puts pressure on basic services. - Poor employment opportunities. - Inequality of income and access to resources. - Poor investment in essential infrastructure. ### SWOT analysis (paragraphs i and following) - Strengths - Geostrategic Location: - i. Mozambique is in a favorable geostrategic position, facilitating international trade and access to neighboring markets. - ii. This privileged location allows Mozambique to become a regional logistics hub and attract foreign investment. - Young and Economically Active Age Population: - i. Most Mozambique's population is young and of economically active age, providing a large labor and consumption potential. - ii. These favorable demographic drives economic growth and fosters innovation in key sectors such as technology and entrepreneurship. - Natural Resource Potential: - i. The country has a potential in natural resources that can serve as a basis for economic diversification and the export of commodities. - ii. Resource wealth offers opportunities to develop sectors such as mining, agriculture and energy, boosting economic growth, contributing to revenue generation and job creation. - Remarkable Tourism Potential: - i. The country's remarkable tourism potential, with a variety of attractions that can draw visitors all year round. - ii. Investments in the tourism industry can generate jobs, stimulate economic growth and promote infrastructure development, generating revenue and creating jobs. - Multimodal Transport Infrastructure: - iii. The existence of a multimodal transport network interconnected with neighboring countries, facilitating regional trade and economic development. - iv. A well-developed multimodal transport network can promote regional and global trade, improve connectivity and attract investment in logistics and transport, contributing to economic growth and regional integration. - Biophysical Diversity and Biodiversity: - i. The country's biophysical diversity, including terrestrial, marine and aquatic biodiversity, offers opportunities for tourism and scientific research. - ii. These potentialities can create opportunities for tourism, scientific research and conservation, promoting sustainable development. Highlighting the importance of conservation and attracting tourists interested in the country's nature and wildlife. - Domestic and Foreign Market for National Products: - i. The presence of a domestic and foreign market for products produced in the country, boosting the production and marketing of national products. - ii. This advantage can stimulate the growth of the industrial sector and promote the competitiveness of national products in local and international markets. - Opportunities - Favorable Demographics: - i. The acceleration of the demographic transition as an opportunity to take advantage of the demographic dividend, as the young population enters the workforce, boosting economic growth and productivity. - ii. A favorable demographic transition can stimulate economic growth by increasing production and consumption, as well as promoting innovation and entrepreneurship among young people. - The end of the armed conflict in the center of the country and the agreement on Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR): - Reducing violence in the affected communities, enabling the reconstruction of infrastructure destroyed by the conflict, access to basic services and the dynamization of economic life. - i. Providing a safer environment for domestic and foreign investment, boosting economic and social development. - ii. The DDR agreement offers the opportunity to reintegrate the combatants of the National Resistance of Mozambique, which allows them to be trained and inserted into the job market, becoming productive members of society, contributing to the growth of the economy and reducing dependence on social assistance programs. - Growing International Demand for Commodities: - i. The growing international demand for commodities as an opportunity for export and economic growth, taking advantage of the country's natural resources. - ii. Growing demand offers the opportunity to diversify exports, increase foreign exchange earnings and boost the development of key sectors of the economy. - International Respect and Trust: - i. International respect and trust as an opportunity to attract foreign investment and establish solid business partnerships. - ii. Improving the country's international image can increase access to foreign funding, technology and expertise, boosting economic growth and competitiveness in the global market. - Energy Transition: - i. The energy transition as an opportunity to invest in renewable energy sources and promote sustainability. - ii. Investing in renewable energy sources can diversify the country's energy mix, reduce dependence on fossil fuels and mitigate the impacts of climate change, while creating new business opportunities and jobs in the renewable energy sector. - Weaknesses - Macroeconomic instability and the state's weak financial capacity: - i. Mozambique faces challenges of macroeconomic instability and a limited financial capacity of the government to invest in infrastructure and public services. - ii. These factors can undermine investor confidence, hinder access to external and internal financing, and compromise the government's ability to provide essential public services, thereby hindering the implementation of long-term development policies. - Low Levels of Production and Productivity: - i. The low level of production and productivity is a weakness that limits economic growth and competitiveness. - ii. This situation reduces the country's ability to generate wealth and jobs, negatively affecting the population's quality of life and ability to compete in global markets. - Low quality of human capital formation and technological development: - i. The low quality of human capital formation and technological development is a weakness that limits the workforce's potential. - o Weaknesses in human capital formation hinder the country's ability to innovate, adapt to technological changes and compete in high-skill sectors in the global market. - ii. Insufficient investment in professional education to promote know-how and a competitive workforce. - o Weak investment in vocational education limits the availability of professionals for the labor market. - o Existence of discontinued institutions, with poor development of requalification plans and the need to improve the quality assurance and certification process. - Predominance of the Informal Sector: - i. Informality reduces the tax base, limiting the government's ability to finance public services and infrastructure, as well as limiting access to credit. - Low Quality of Basic Service Provision: - i. The poor quality of provision of basic services, such as health, education and infrastructure, as a threat to the well-being of the population and to the social and economic development of the country. - ii. Weakness in the quality of public services undermines equitable access to essential services, increases social inequalities and limits development opportunities for the most vulnerable population. - Deficit in infrastructure and services to support production: - i. The deficit of infrastructure and production support services as a limitation to economic growth and competitiveness. - ii. This deficit hinders the diversification of the economy, access to internal and external markets and the creation of productive jobs for the population. - Poor Performance by Institutions: - i. The poor performance by institutions conditions the implementation of policies and strategies, which are also conditioned by poor institutional articulation and coordination. - ii. This weakness can result in duplicated efforts, wasted resources and a lack of coherence in the formulation and implementation of public policies, hindering progress towards the country's development goals. - Corruption: - i. Corruption is a persistent problem in Mozambique, undermining the effectiveness and integrity of public institutions, damaging the efficient allocation of resources, hindering the business environment by discouraging private investment and undermining public confidence in government. - ii. The prevention and control of corruption is essential to strengthen governance and attract foreign investment to the country. - Threats - Influence of International Economic and Political Shocks: - i. The influence of international economic and political shocks are a threat to the country's economic and political stability, due to their ability to negatively affect the economy and international relations. - ii. These events can cause instability in the financial markets, reduce foreign investment, affect exports and imports and destabilize the political environment, compromising the country's overall stability. - Negative effects of climate change and vulnerabilities to natural disasters: - i. Climate change and vulnerabilities to natural disasters, such as floods and droughts, pose a threat to infrastructure, environmental security and the well-being of the population. - ii. These events result in damage to vital infrastructure, loss of production, loss of life, population displacement, scarcity of natural resources and increased costs associated with adaptation and recovery, compromising the country's sustainable development. - Violent Extremism and Insecurity: - Violent extremism in the north of the country constitutes a threat to internal security, regional stability and national development, requiring efforts to contain violence and promote security. - i. Violent extremism can undermine trust in government institutions, damage tourism and foreign investment, destabilize local communities and create ethnic and religious tensions, negatively affecting social cohesion and economic progress. - Organized Crime and Terrorism: - ii. Organized and transnational crime has become a present threat to personal safety and public order. - iii. This event can create a climate of fear and insecurity among the population, damage confidence in security institutions, affect tourism and foreign investment and destabilize local communities, compromising the stability and development of the country. - Social Inequalities: - i. Social inequalities between rural and urban areas, as well as between regions of the country, as a source of tension and a limitation to equitable development. - ii. These inequalities can increase social exclusion, reduce social cohesion and limit the development potential of the most marginalized communities. - Pandemics and Health Emergencies: - i. Pandemic crises and health emergencies are a threat to social and economic stability, requiring improved public health measures and emergency preparedness. - ii. Epidemics, pandemics or health emergencies can overwhelm health systems, cause economic disruptions, increase unemployment, reduce productivity and create social instability, negatively impacting the country's human and economic development. ### Challenges and opportunities for development (paragraphs 74–79) - Paragraph 74: Identification and understanding of challenges is key to guiding effective strategies to promote economic growth, social stability and overall progress. - Paragraph 75: Diversification of the National Economy - Use geostrategic location and natural resource potential for structural transformation, focusing on industrialization and modernization of agriculture. - Diversification is crucial to reducing dependence on the primary sector and enabling sustained economic development based on manufacturing and high value-added sectors and services. - Paragraph 76: Human capital development - Strengthen education in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) in the National Education System. - Invest in professional education to qualify the workforce and capitalize on the demographic dividend. - Paragraph 77: Infrastructure development - Exploit the multimodal transportation network and logistical corridors to overcome infrastructure deficits, improve economic growth and quality of life, promote regional trade and attract investment. - Paragraph 78: Environmental protection and resilience to climate change - Develop capacities to prevent and mitigate negative effects of climate change; leverage opportunities in renewable energies, green technologies and sustainable practices. - Paragraph 79: Corruption - Implement coercive measures to prevent and combat corruption to strengthen governance, promote transparency and attract foreign investment. ### Critical success factors of the National Development Strategy (paragraphs 80–84) - 80. Political and Social Stability - Ensure a stable political and social environment to promote investor confidence and the functioning of democratic institutions. - 81. Economic Diversification and Innovation - Invest in diversification and innovation in high value-added sectors to reduce dependence on vulnerable sectors and increase international competitiveness. - 82. Sustainable Management of Natural Resources - Ensure responsible management to protect the environment, preserve biodiversity and guarantee sustainable use. - 83. Human Capital Development - Invest in education, technology, health and professional training to promote sustainable growth and equity. - 84. Transparency and Good Governance - Promote transparency, accountability and citizen participation to fight corruption, strengthen institutions, peace and security, and ensure efficient and equitable use of resources. ### National Development Strategy: strategic orientation, vision, values and principles (paragraphs 85–87 and 6.1 subsections) - 85–86. The National Development Strategy (NDS) has been updated considering current development levels, macroeconomic, sectoral and territorial policies and strategies, socio-economic reforms, domestic and international development experience, bilateral and multilateral commitments, and the country's potential, opportunities and future challenges. - 6.1.1 Vision (paragraph 87) - Mozambique will be recognized in the region and internationally as an example of equitable development, harmonizing economic and population growth with the preservation of the environment. - Stated vision: "To be a prosperous middle-income country, where equity, security and the well-being of the population are guaranteed, sustainability and competitiveness are priorities". - 6.1.3 Values - i. Equity and social justice – Ensure equal opportunities and access to basic services; reduce socio-economic disparities. - ii. Productivity, Entrepreneurship and Innovation – Promote productivity and entrepreneurship and stimulate innovation. - iii. Respect for cultural diversity and human rights - Value and respect all cultures; protect human rights and dignity. - iv. Responsibility and commitment – Demonstrate responsibility in government actions and accountability to the public. - v. Transparency and democratic participation - Ensure transparency of government decisions and broad participation of all sectors of society. - 6.1.4 Principles - i. Good Governance and Transparency – Prioritize strong, efficient, honest and ethical institutions. - ii. National and international cooperation – Seek collaboration domestically and internationally. - iii. Holistic and multidisciplinary development – Approach development comprehensively across human well-being dimensions. - iv. Social inclusion and reduction of inequalities – Promote policies that reduce economic and social inequalities. - v. Participation and social dialogue – Encourage active participation of civil society and stakeholders. - vi. Public-private partnerships – Encourage collaboration between public and private sectors. - vii. Resilience and adaptation to change and uncertainty – Build capacities to face challenges and uncertainties. - viii. Environmental and economic sustainability – Promote development that protects the environment and uses natural resources responsibly. *Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2024/english/1mozea2024004.pdf* ### 6.2 Main Objective ### 6.2 Main Objective ### Main objective - Promote sustainable, inclusive, equitable and resilient development in the country, driven by economic growth, improving the population's quality of life and reducing inequalities. ### Specific objectives - i. Boost sustainable and competitive economic growth by diversifying the production base, focusing on sectors with growth potential, added value (industrialization), innovation and technology. - ii. Stimulate sustainable, inclusive and equitable human development by strengthening the training and mastery of science and technology, encouraging demographic transition and reducing inequalities. - iii. Encourage investment in modern, resilient and quality infrastructure, integrating territories and connecting people and goods (markets) to boost inclusive, sustainable growth and improve people's quality of life. - iv. Strengthen institutions and the justice system, promoting modernization, transparency, accountability and the fight against corruption, to ensure efficient and effective governance, social equity and justice for all. - v. Promote peace and security, strengthening national unity, stability, reducing security threats, respecting human rights and seeking conflict resolution and well-being for all. - vi. Promote the energy transition by reducing dependence on coal and oil, promoting the use of hydrocarbons, natural gas as a transition fuel and expanding the share of renewable energies. - vii. Establish and strengthen national and international cooperation (regional, continental and global) to boost sustainable development. - viii. Promote environmental sustainability, adopting the circular economy in an integrated approach that includes the principles of the blue economy, the green economy and the protection of natural resources, paying special attention to maintaining a balance with the socio-economic development needs of the country and its communities. --- ### VII. THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT MODEL AND THE MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO ### Development Model: overview and fundamentals - The Development Model aims for structural transformation, diversification of productive sectors and strengthening of the national industrial base to create conditions for inclusive, equitable and environmentally responsible economic growth. - Key principles: valuing human capital; stimulating technology, innovation and entrepreneurship; strengthening public institutions; respecting environmental and social sustainability. - The model adopts an integrated approach recognizing interdependence between sectors and the importance of coordinated policies. Public-private partnerships, international cooperation and NGO participation are essential. - The model distinguishes between main strategic sectors (directly focused on economic growth and structural transformation) and supporting strategic sectors (which facilitate development of the main sectors). ### Key Strategic Sectors - Agricultural sector - Recognized as the essential basis for food security and the country's development. Significant investments to modernize production techniques, increase productivity and integrate small producers into wider value chains. - Geographic corridors and technological support: - Pemba-Lichinga corridor: North West HUMAN AND Research Center in Lichinga — focus on cotton, potatoes, beans, chickens, corn, soybeans, tobacco, wheat, fisheries and forestry products. - Nacala corridor: Northeast Research Center in Nampula — focus on cotton, peanuts, chickens, fruit, cassava, corn and fishery products. - Zambezi Valley corridor: Ulóngue experimental unit — focus on cotton, rice, potatoes, cattle, goats, chickens and maize. - Beira corridor: Sussundenga Research Center — focus on rice, cattle, chickens, fruit, vegetables, maize, soya and wheat. - Limpopo corridor: Southern Research Center in Chókwè — focus on rice, cattle, poultry and vegetables, fisheries and forestry products. - Maputo corridor: Umbeluzi Experimental Unit — focus on rice, cattle, poultry and vegetables. - Policies to increase agricultural productivity: access to agricultural inputs and technologies, rural infrastructure, market access, crop diversification and production of higher value-added products (processed foods and organic products). - Energy sector - Priority: diversification of the energy matrix, expanding renewable energies and energy efficiency. - Two main objectives: - Supply the domestic market to reduce production costs in strategic sectors, improve access to energy and make it affordable. - Exploit hydroelectric, solar, wind and biomass potential to increase renewable energy production capacity to meet domestic demand and increase exports to neighboring countries. - Emphasis on reducing energy losses, increasing supply security and ensuring a just transition. Consideration of hydrocarbons: natural gas as a transition fuel. - Tourism sector - Promote sustainable tourist destinations: Quirrimbas (Pemba Bay, Quissanga Districts, Macomia, Palma, Mocimboa da Praia, Ibo Island, Nacala and Mozambique Island); Niassa (Lichinga, Metangula and Niassa Park); Gorongosa (Gorongosa National Park, Chimanimani National Park, Cabeça do Velho and Savannah); Vilankulo (Vilankulo District headquarters, Bazaruto Archipelago and Inhassoro); Maputo (Maputo City, Maputo National Park and Ponta de Ouro). - Preserve cultural and natural heritage, diversify tourism offers, promote cross-sector coordination and self-employment through handicrafts, archaeology, sports, gastronomy and cultural development centers. - Encourage public-private partnerships to develop resilient tourism infrastructure and promote responsible tourism. - Mining sector - Strategic for economic development and a base for local manufacturing. Stimulate growth of mineral production units processed locally by small and medium industries (construction, lapidary and jewelry) to add value and transform raw resources into finished goods. - Promote public-private partnerships, investment in technology and innovation, and ensure environmental sustainability across the mining value chain. - Industry sector - Industrialization is a fundamental pillar with promotion of competitive and innovative manufacturing industries. - Revitalization of industrial parks and specific parks listed for agro-industry, seafood, petrochemical (fertilizers), cement, dyes, dry port, pencils, batteries and solar panels, metalwork and aluminium. - Industry to absorb raw materials from agriculture and mining, stimulating food/beverage/furniture/paper/glass and pharmaceutical industries, industrial fishing and cement industry. - Policies: investments in infrastructure, labor training, tax incentives, access to financing for manufacturing companies, promotion of foreign trade policies encouraging import substitution and export of manufactured products. ### Strategic Support Sectors - Human and Social Capital Development - Ensure a qualified and healthy workforce, implement a national population policy and social programs to contain population growth at sustainable levels, reduce inequalities and promote social inclusion. - Take advantage of favorable demographic dynamics (young population) to boost economic and social growth. - Demographic Dynamics of the Population: - i. Challenges: population growth can pressure basic social services; Opportunities: young population can boost economic and social growth. - ii. Necessity to include demographic considerations in policy and programs (reproductive health, family planning and women's empowerment). - iii. Turn demographic dynamics into an impetus for sustainable development. - iv. Develop human capital with educational quality standards, focus on Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM), and support training and retraining programs. - v. Develop a highly qualified workforce aligned with market needs to drive growth in strategic sectors. - Services sector - Key to supporting main strategic sectors via services infrastructure that promotes efficiency, innovation and competitiveness. - Promote: - Financial services: facilitate access to specialized financing and encourage public-private partnerships. - Trade: programs to facilitate exports, strengthen distribution networks and support trade digitalization. - Transport: integrated logistics systems combining road, rail and sea; optimize transport logistics to reduce costs and delivery times. - Communication: use information and communication technologies to increase operational efficiency. - Logistics: development and modernization of logistics parks to improve storage, processing and distribution. - Infrastructure sector - Modernization and expansion of infrastructure to guarantee regional connectivity, access to essential services and support efficient development of key sectors. - Priorities: regional connectivity, access to basic services, development of transportation and logistics corridors, investments in digital infrastructure, expansion of renewable energies, energy efficiency, and support infrastructure for clean energy technologies. - Aim: facilitate movement of people and goods, reduce logistics costs and create a favorable environment for economic growth. - Governance - Promote transparent, efficient and accountable governance to ensure effective implementation of public policies and proper management of resources. - Strengthen government institutions, fight corruption and promote civic participation. - Environment - Focus on preserving natural resources, mitigating negative environmental impacts and promoting sustainable practices. - Implement policies and regulations to address climate change, manage disaster risks and ensure economic growth does not compromise ecological balance. --- ### 7.2 Macroeconomic Scenarios ### Scenario framework - Two scenarios up to 2044 with 2023 as the base year: - Reference scenario (Base Scenario). - Structural transformation scenario ("NDS Scenario"). - Scenarios and assumptions provide the basis for the National Development Strategy and inform choices given international context influences. ### Economic growth (key projections) - COVID-19 exacerbated economic vulnerabilities and the need for measures to boost recovery. - The NDS scenario projects trajectories for economic growth, population and GDP per capita by NDS five-year period. Table 2 Macroeconomic assumptions (Base = 2023): - Growth Base 2025-2029 2030-2034 2040-2044 20-year average - Growth rate incl. LNG 5.0 9.0 9.3 9.2 8.8 - GDP per capita incl. LNG 605.9 1,053.9 1,676.1 3,309.3 2,077.6 - Growth rate excl. LNG 4.4 5.7 8.1 10.5 8.4 - GDP per capita excl. LNG 605.9 948.6 1,324.8 2,925.0 1,767.1 - Population 10^6 31.6 34.4 38.8 47.0 40.9 - Population growth rate 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.0 - Source: INE, MEF-QM - Short and medium term: oil and gas sector sustains growth until 2030. Long term: non-oil sectors (agriculture, manufacturing and services) expected to determine pace of growth and income generation. ### Structural change and sectoral growth - Primary and tertiary sectors expected to continue making the greatest contribution to GDP in the long term. - Strategic sectors with high value-added potential: high value-added agriculture, agro-industry, tourism, sustainable processing of natural resources, and production of manufactured goods could determine growth trends over the next 20 years. - Projected sectoral growth (Table 3: Sectoral growth): - Sector Base 2025-2029 2030-2034 2040-2044 20-year average - Primary including LNG 6.0% 19.4% 10.4% 6.1% 10.6% - Primary without LNG 6.0% 7.3% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0% - Secondary 1.8% 4.0% 8.2% 12.1% 8.8% - Tertiary 3.7% 4.7% 6.6% 8.5% 6.9% - Non-administrative services 4.8% 3.9% 6.3% 9.3% 6.9% - Administrative services 2.5% 5.4% 7.0% 7.8% 6.9% - Taxes on Products 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% - Real GDP growth rate inc. LNG 4.4% 9.0% 9.3% 9.2% 8.8% - Real GDP growth rate without LNG 4.4% 5.7% 8.1% 10.5% 8.4% - Source: INE, MEF-QM - Note: The primary sector includes agriculture and fishing, the secondary sector includes manufacturing, electricity and construction and the tertiary sector includes trade, transport and communications, financial services, hotels and restaurants, public administration and education and health services. ### Workforce participation - (Section begins but content beyond this point is not included in the supplied content.) *Source: INE, MEF-QM (as cited in the chapter).* ### 113. Considering the demographic assumptions combined with greater ### Considering the demographic assumptions combined with greater ### Labor Force and Sectoral Composition - According to Figure [2b], more than 50% of the economically active population's workforce will be absorbed by the non-agricultural sectors by 2044. - Labor force participation in the secondary sector (industry) could increase to around 13.9% of total participation, on average, per year between 2040-2044. - The services sector is expected to absorb 37.1% of the workforce over the same period. ### Macroeconomic Scenario Risks - Main risks and uncertainties that could affect the country's economy: - insecurity - natural disasters - volatile commodity prices - Proposals for risk mitigation strategies are discussed to promote economic resilience and minimize adverse impacts. *Source: INE, MEF* ### NDS Priorities (excerpt) - i. Implement policies and incentives to promote the diversification of the economy, industrialization and local transformation of raw materials, reducing dependence on primary sectors and developing high value-added sectors and services. - ii. Investing in education, health, professional education, science and technology, training the national workforce to improve skills and productivity, taking advantage of the potential of the demographic dividend and boosting human development. - iii. Overcoming the deficit in essential infrastructure, especially in the transport, energy, water and sanitation sectors, to boost economic growth, promote regional trade, and significantly improve the quality of life of the population. - iv. Implement effective anti-corruption measures to strengthen governance, promote transparency and attract foreign investment. - v. Developing capacities for prevention, adaptation to climate change and disaster risk management; promoting investments in renewable energies and sustainable practices. - vi. Implementing policies and incentives to promote the conservation of natural capital and environmental protection, integrating territorial planning and the blue and green economy as one of the arms for the development of the circular economy. ### Strategy Implementation Pillars - The 2025-2044 National Development Strategy (NDS) is composed of five fundamental pillars: - (i) Structural Transformation of the Economy - (ii) Social and Demographic Transformation - (iii) Infrastructures, Organization and Territorial Planning - (iv) Governance, Peace and Security - (v) Environmental Sustainability, Climate Change and Circular Economy - Each pillar presents main and strategic objectives, accompanied by results indicators and priority programs. ### PILLAR I. Structural Transformation of the Economy — Objectives (excerpt) - Macroeconomic stability: - Ensure implementation and continued adoption of responsible fiscal policies that promote predictability and transparency in public accounts, seek long-term budget balance and implement structural reforms to ensure the sustainability of public finances. - Ensure a stable, balanced and sustainable macroeconomic environment, promoting continuous improvement of investor confidence. - Promote and strengthen continued implementation of the monetary policy that guarantees the maintenance of low inflation rates. - Define policies and regulations that facilitate access to credit and guarantee favorable financing conditions. - Ensure regulation and supervision of the financial system. - Diversifying the economy: - Broaden the country's production base to reduce dependence on the primary sector. - Promote industrialization and prioritize sectors with high added value and growth potential, including local transformation of agricultural and extractive products. - Increase productivity and competitiveness of traditional agricultural and extractive sectors, modernizing them and adopting innovative technologies. - Promote integration of strategic production chains, especially between agricultural and industrial sectors. - Encourage research, innovation and technological development in strategic sectors. - Invest in essential areas such as transport, energy, telecommunications and logistics. - Improving the business environment: - Adopt policies and measures to stimulate competitiveness, innovation and productivity in local companies. - Strengthen foreign trade promotion policies and simplify processes to reduce bureaucracy. - Ensure legal certainty, flexibility and efficiency in conflict resolution, protect property rights and contracts. - Promote competition through a healthy competitive environment. - Employment, entrepreneurship, self-employment and dignified work: - Implement policies and programs that encourage formalization of informal work. - Encourage entrepreneurship and development of small and medium-sized enterprises. - Attract and facilitate investment in strategic sectors. - Promote professional education focused on STEM and vocational training aligned with industry needs. - Innovation, technology and digitalization: - Encourage partnerships between companies, educational institutions and research centers. - Establish regulatory policies and standards that encourage innovation and digitalization, protecting intellectual property and ensuring cyber security. - Implement public policies that encourage scientific production and technological development. - Adopt advanced and digital technologies to drive innovation, automate processes and create new business opportunities. ### PILLAR I — Expected Results - i. Sustainable economic growth, increased income, job creation and decent work. - ii. Diversification of the economy, transforming national manufacturing and reducing dependence on traditional sectors. - iii. Increased international competitiveness. - iv. Stimulation of innovation and technological development. - v. Improvement of business environment and increase investment. ### PILLAR I — Main Indicators and Targets (verbatim) 1. Indicator 1: Average annual real GDP growth rate. - Target: Increase the average annual growth rate of real GDP from 4.4 to 9.2 % incl. GNL, e 10.5 s/ GNL. 2. Indicator 2: Annual growth in real GDP per capita. - Target: Increase the annual growth of real GDP per capita from USD 557.3 to USD 3,309.3 incl. GNL, e 2,925.0 s/ GNL. 3. Indicator 3: Sectoral growth rate - Target: Increase the growth rate of the primary sector from 6.5% to 11.5% s/GNL. - Target: Increase the growth rate of the primary sector from 1.3% to 15.5% s/GNL. - Target: Increase the growth rate of the tertiary sector from 3.6% to 7.7%. 4. Indicator 4: Sectoral weight in the economy as a % of GDP - Target: Increase the weight of the primary sector from 36.8% to 53.7% s/GNL. - Target: Increase the weight of the secondary sector from 12.4% to 13.7%. - Target: Reduce the weight of the tertiary sector from 50.8% to 32.6%. 5. Indicator 5: Global Competitiveness (points 0 to 7). - Target: Increase the global competitiveness rating from 38.1 points to 53.1 points. 6. Indicator 6: Expenditure on research and development as a % of GDP. - Target: Increase spending on research and development as a % of GDP from 0.33 to 1.8. 7. Indicator 7: general index of ease of doing business (points from 0 to 100). - Target: Increase the ease of doing business index from 55 points to 66.9 points ### PILLAR I — Priority Programs (selected) - Program 1.4.1 - Macroeconomic Stability - Aim: Ensure a stable, balanced and sustainable macroeconomic environment, emphasizing financial inclusion, stimulating domestic savings and investment. - Priority actions: (i) implement and continue responsible fiscal policies striving for fiscal equilibrium and structural reforms; (ii) control monetary expansion to maintain price stability; (iii) strengthen the financial system through appropriate regulations and effective supervision; (iv) promote a favorable environment for investment through fiscal and regulatory incentives. - Program 1.4.2 - Production, Productivity, Diversification and Competitiveness - Aim: Stimulate an increase in production efficiency and effectiveness with a special focus on industrialization and strengthening the agricultural sector. - Priority actions include: (i) modernize production techniques including automation, artificial intelligence and precision farming; (ii) reduce dependence on specific sectors and integrate agrarian sector as supplier of raw materials for industry; (iii) invest in infrastructure to improve logistics and ensure reliable energy and water supplies; (v) promote sustainable agricultural practices; (vi) develop policies to support creation and expansion of industries including industrial parks and Special Economic Zones; (vii) implement technical and professional education programs; (viii) promote technological innovation through subsidies, tax incentives and partnerships; (ix) promote sustainable industrial and agricultural practices such as the circular economy. - Program 1.4.3 - Business Environment - Aim: Create a favorable environment for entrepreneurship and private sector development. - Priority actions include: (i) implement foreign trade promotion policies facilitated by trade agreements; (ii) simplify company registration, licensing and tax system; (iii) promote transparency and fiscal responsibility; (iv) facilitate access to financing for SMEs; (v) encourage innovation and entrepreneurship through support programs; (vi) foster public-private partnerships for investment in services supporting production; (vii) establish continuous dialogue between government, companies and other productive sector players. - Program 1.4.4 - Employment, Entrepreneurship, Self-employment and Dignified Work - Focus: Ensure absorption of the workforce, create job opportunities, encourage entrepreneurship, self-employment and decent work. - Priority actions include: (i) implement job creation programs in key sectors; (ii) provide professional education to improve workforce skills; (iii) encourage entrepreneurship and self-employment through financial support, training and technical support; (iv) establish partnerships between companies and educational institutions to facilitate youth labor market entry. - Program 1.4.5 - Scientific and Technological Research and Innovation - Aim: Promote technological development and innovation; encourage adoption of new technologies by national companies. - Priority actions include: (i) encourage scientific research and development of advanced technologies; (ii) create financial support programs for startups and innovative companies; (iii) establish partnerships between universities, companies and research centers; (iv) promote international cooperation in research and development. *Source: MEF, 2024; INE, MEF* ### 2.1 Pillar Objectives ### 2.1 Pillar Objectives ### Education sector - Strengthen the national curriculum by incorporating a STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) educational approach and include modules focused on digital skills and critical thinking throughout the National Education System. - Strengthen and expand technical and vocational programs to provide viable alternatives to academic education, with technological support from specialized training centers in various regions guaranteeing quality certification. - Align vocational education programs with higher education, with the needs and trends of the job market, ensuring that students can meet the demands of the market. - Strengthen teachers' ongoing training and development in modern pedagogy and the use of technology to become facilitators of innovative, student-centered learning. - Encourage collaboration between the government, private sector and other stakeholders to enrich the SNE through Public-Private Partnerships in: - Provision of educational resources, curriculum development and technological support, creating synergies that promote quality education. - Corporate social responsibility initiatives to improve school infrastructure, offer scholarship programs and train teachers. - Integrate and invest in the use of educational technology to create digital, dynamic and accessible learning environments, with a focus on continuous and flexible education, especially in rural areas. ### Health sector - Improve the quality and efficiency of health services, ensuring that all Mozambicans receive patient-centered care. - Expand primary health services to include prevention and wellness promotion, focusing on nutrition, maternal and child health, and chronic disease prevention, especially in rural and peripheral areas. - Implement policies to guarantee the quality and safety of health services, with standards of care, clinical protocols and infection control measures that ensure the safety of patients and health workers. - Encourage and guarantee the involvement of communities in the management of the health system, promoting dialogue and transparency in decisions related to public health. ### Population dynamics and harnessing the demographic dividend - Encourage a favorable demographic transition through the implementation of population policy to achieve a balanced population profile favorable to development. - Promote the integration of family planning, sexual reproductive health and comprehensive education, guaranteeing equal access to all population groups, and fostering social and economic well-being. - Promote the use of demographic bonuses by capitalizing on the economic potential of the young population to boost the country's sustainable development. - Promote the revitalization of rural areas and reduce rural exodus by improving quality of life, strengthening the economy and providing equitable access to essential services. - Ensure that population growth is sustainable and compatible with the preservation of natural resources and the quality of the environment. ### Provision of other basic services; Youth sector - Improve the quality of basic services such as water, power, sanitation, housing and transport for all communities. - Youth-specific objectives: - Increase access to quality education and vocational training programs, preparing young people for the challenges of the job market and the digital economy. - Promote employment and entrepreneurship among young people by providing practical work opportunities and support for new business development. - Ensure young people have access to comprehensive health care, including mental, sexual and reproductive health. - Ensure all young people, especially those in vulnerable situations, have access to necessary support for development and social integration. - Actively involve young people in civic and political life, ensuring their voices are heard and needs addressed in public policies. - Promote socio-emotional skills such as resilience, empathy, teamwork and problem-solving. - Promote professional counseling and guidance to aid career choice and personal objective definition. ### Culture and sport sector - Promote natural, cultural and historical heritage to boost tourism and the local economy, preserving cultural diversity and promoting national pride. - Encourage participation in cultural, sporting and recreational activities to promote well-being and value cultural diversity. ### Gender and social protection - Promote gender equality in all spheres, including equal access to education, employment and participation in decision-making. - Ensure social inclusion and equal opportunities for all groups, especially the most vulnerable, through social protection and empowerment policies. - Ensure social protection systems are sustainable and operate efficiently, optimizing available resources. - Strengthen community resilience and adaptability of social protection systems to respond effectively to crises and social and economic changes. - Consolidate an integrated and comprehensive system of social protection and humanitarian support for internally displaced people. - Implement effective programs to fight poverty and hunger, including cash transfers and support for family farming, to ensure food security and reduce malnutrition. ### 2.2 Expected Outcomes - Improved quality of education, with an emphasis on developing skills for critical thinking, problem solving, collaboration and creativity. - Enhanced human capital and National Education System. - Increased academic performance, with a special focus on STEM and digital skills. - Continued teacher training and professional development. - Improved quality of life and health promotion. - Reduced poverty and inequality. - Promotion of social inclusion. - Stimulation of human capital development. ### 2.3 Main Indicators and Targets - Indicator 1: Population growth rate - Target: Reduce the population growth rate from 2.5% to 1.8%. - Indicator 2: Average years of schooling. - Target: Increase school years from 3.5 years to 5.4 years. - Indicator 3: Illiteracy rate. - Target: Reduce the illiteracy rate from 38.3% to 19.3%. - Indicator 4: Rate in Science Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM). - Target: Increase the STEM rate from 49% to 70%. - Indicator 4: Life expectancy of the population. - Target: Increase life expectancy from 55.7 to 76.0. - Indicator 5: Infant mortality rate (per 1000 live births). - Target: Reduce the infant mortality rate from 39% to 17.2%. - Indicator 6: Prevalence of chronic malnutrition in children under 5. - Target: Reduce the prevalence of chronic malnutrition in children under 5 from 37% to 18.7%. - Indicator 7: Proportion of the population living below the national poverty line. - Target: Reduce the proportion of the population living below the national poverty line from 68.2% to 27.7%. - Indicator 8: Multidimensional poverty index. - Target: Reduce the multidimensional poverty rate from 53% to 24.2%. - Indicator 9: Income inequalities (GINI coefficient). - Target: Reduce income inequality from 0.5 to 0.3. - Indicator 10: Employability rate of vocational education graduates. - Target: Increase the employability rate of vocational education graduates from 47% to 57.1%. - Indicator 11: Participation rate in education and training programs for young people. - Target: Increase the youth participation rate from 35.3% to 51.7% - Indicator 12: Female participation rate in the EAP. - Target: Increase the female participation rate in the EAP from 83.1% to 93.5%. - Indicator 13: Proportion of seats held by women in the National Assembly. - Target: Increasing the proportion of seats held by women in Parliament from 42.2% to 54.2%. - Indicator 14: Gender Inequality Index (GII). - Target: Increase the Gender Development Index from 0.523 to 0.660. ### 2.4 Priority Programs Program 2.4.1 - Population and Human Capital - Aim: Promote a balance between demographic growth and investment in human development to ensure sustainable population growth and improved living conditions. - Emphasis on investing in vocational education as a strategic area for socio-economic growth. - Priority actions: - In education: (i) Promote major investment in all education sub-systems, encourage and revitalize the SNE aimed at professional education with a focus on STEM; (ii) Establish partnerships with local companies and industries to align educational programs with sector practices, providing internships and practical learning; (iii) Strengthen policies supporting equitable access, educational development and incentives for innovation; (iv) Promote the Acquired Skills Recognition System. - In health: (i) Investment in health, water and basic sanitation; (ii) Promotion of family planning; (iii) Nutritional education to encourage favorable demographic transition and improve quality of life; (iv) Continuous implementation of disease prevention policies, health education programs and promotion of healthy habits. Program 2.4.2 - Protection, Assistance, Social Inclusion and Equity - Aim: Ensure equity and sustainability of social protection and assistance systems and inclusion of vulnerable groups. - Priority actions: - (i) Guarantee social protection and access to health, education, training, employment and income services for vulnerable groups. - (ii) Consolidate an integrated and comprehensive system of social protection and humanitarian support for internally displaced people. - (iii) Implement inclusive and equitable policies for disadvantaged groups such as people with disabilities, displaced people, street children and the elderly. - (iv) Combat and eradicate harmful socio-economic practices such as child labor and domestic violence. - (v) Strengthen food and nutrition security. - (vi) Expand access to housing to guarantee decent living conditions. Program 2.4.3 - Youth program - Aim: Promote empowerment and integral development of young people to provide tools and opportunities for learning, personal growth and active participation. - Priority actions: - (i) Access to quality education and professional education opportunities that prepare young people for the job market. - (ii) Develop actions to prevent social problems affecting young people, such as violence, drugs, inequalities and exclusion. - (iii) Stimulate young people's engagement in civic and political issues, promoting awareness of rights and duties. - (iv) Enable young people to exercise full citizenship, promoting social inclusion and respect for diversity. Program 2.4.4 - Culture and Sport - Aim: Promote peace, solidarity, social cohesion and cultural identity; encourage physical activity, sports and recreation. - Priority actions: - (i) Promote access to culture and the arts through educational events and programs and boost cultural and creative industries. - (ii) Promote youth associations and volunteering to encourage participation in cultural and sporting activities. - (iii) Provide training and capacity building programs in cultural and sporting areas to develop local talent and promote national pride. Program 2.4.5 - Gender - Aim: Ensure promotion of gender equity and opportunities in economic and social development, focusing on empowerment and inclusion of women. - Priority actions: - (i) Implement policies to guarantee equal opportunities in education, employment and political participation. - (ii) Combat discrimination and gender-based violence through legislation and awareness programs. - (iii) Promote girls in STEM areas. - (iv) Promote women's participation in leadership and decision-making positions considering technical and professional skills. - (iv) Develop specific programs for women's education and empowerment, such as access to credit and entrepreneurship training to promote women's economic autonomy. PILLAR III. Infrastructure, Organization and Territorial Planning (overview of objectives) - Aim: Develop essential infrastructure and promote sustainable and equitable territorial development, integrating infrastructure, urban and rural planning, and efficient environmental management to improve quality of life and boost inclusive and resilient economic growth. a) Economic Infrastructure (priority objectives) - Modernize and expand the transport network to facilitate movement of agricultural and industrial products. - Invest in modernization of seaports to increase cargo handling capacity. - Develop industrial parks and special economic zones to attract investment, create jobs and promote regional development. - Expand and improve connectivity infrastructure affordably, sustainably and resiliently. - Stimulate investment in clean and renewable energy. - Modernize and expand water storage capacity for agricultural and industrial development and human consumption needs. - Improve infrastructure and accessibility in main tourist, industrial and production areas. b) Social Infrastructure - Expand and improve infrastructure in the National Education System, invest in teacher training, the National Qualifications Catalog throughout the SNE, research and STEM. - Invest in improving and expanding health facilities and hospitals, promote primary health care and disease prevention. - Encourage investment in basic sanitation and water treatment. - Promote development of cultural and sports infrastructures. - Develop affordable and sustainable housing projects with attention to quality and location. - Improve the public transport network, prioritizing equitable access and reducing pollutant emissions. c) Administrative Infrastructure - Modernize government facilities and administrative processes for efficiency, transparency and accessibility. - Develop citizen service infrastructures prioritizing simplicity, speed and accessibility, using digital technologies and remote channels. - Implement integrated information and communication technology systems to optimize public management. - Strengthen public security and defense infrastructure with investment in equipment and training. d) Administrative - Territorial Organization - Implement measures to delimit territorial units. - Ensure actions are taken to address territorial units. - Ensure permanent updating of toponymy. e) Integrated Territorial Development and Sustainable Infrastructure - Implement land-use planning policies that promote sustainable management of natural resources and preservation of ecosystems. - Encourage planned occupation of the territory, integrating economic, social and environmental aspects. - Strengthen community participation in decision-making on land use and urban planning. - Develop territorial planning instruments tailored to regional needs to reduce inequalities. - Draft municipal master plans incorporating environmental sustainability principles. - Implement land use policies that encourage conservation and recovery of degraded areas. - Promote sustainable urbanization projects focusing on urban mobility, accessibility and quality public spaces. *Source: 1mozea2024004 - 2.1 Pillar Objectives* ### 3.2 Anticipated Outcomes ### 3.2 Anticipated Outcomes ### Anticipated outcomes (sectoral infrastructure and services) - Improved accessibility and connectivity. - Increased access to essential services such as energy and drinking water. - Improved provision of public services and quality of life. - Improved capacity to respond to the needs of the productive sector. - Reduced environmental risks and the impacts of natural disasters. - Balanced and sustainable development of urban and rural areas. - Reduced regional disparities in access to basic services. - Increased resilience of infrastructures to extreme weather events. - Balanced and sustainable development of urban and rural areas. - Appropriate management of territorial units of public administration. - Improved infrastructure for the provision of public services. - Updated toponymy in line with the country's social, cultural and political context. ### Key Indicators and Targets (3.3) - Water storage capacity (billion m3); Target1: Increase water storage capacity from 10,047,610 billion m3 to 14,710,706 billion m3; - Freight Traffic in Tons per km; Target2: Increase freight traffic from 15.716 tons per km to 44.357 tons per km; - Port handling in metric tons; Target3: Increase port handling from 48,227 metric tons to 100,004 metric tons; - Electricity production in GWh; Target4: Increase electricity production from 19286 GWh to 73000 GWh; - Net enrollment rate; Target5: Increase the net elementary school enrollment rate from 112.8% to 128.4% and the net secondary school enrollment rate from 43.4% to 57.8%; - Percentage of the population that has used health services; Target6: Increase access to basic healthcare from 67.1% to 78.5%; - Percentage of the population consuming water from a safe source in %; Target7: Increase access to safe water from 53.6% to 85%; - Percentage of the population with access to safe sanitation; Target8: Increase access to safe sanitation from 31.7% to 68%; - Percentage of the population with access to energy from the public grid in %; Target9: Increase access to public grid energy from 39% to 100%; - Passenger transportation in km/p; Target10: Increase passenger transport from 54402 km/p to 79650 km/p; - Number of tourist businesses opened; Target11: An increase in the number of tourist businesses opened from 2,848 to 11,792; - Reclaimed and restructured tourist destinations; Target12: (i) Develop plans to upgrade tourist destinations (ii) Create new tourist hubs; - Delimited territorial units; Target13: Increase the number of delimited territorial units from 884 to 1695. ### Priority Programs — Economic, Social, Administrative, and Territorial Infrastructure (3.4) - Program 3.4.1 - Economic Infrastructure - Aim: promote development of resilient and sustainable economic infrastructures to support production and access to markets and boost economic growth. - Priority actions include: (i) construction, maintenance and improvement of roads, railroads, ports, airports and electricity systems; (ii) improved connectivity between regions to increase competitiveness and productivity; (iii) incentives for companies to settle in remote regions and improvements to transportation and communication systems. - Program 3.4.2 - Social Infrastructure - Aim: increase provision of and access to basic services essential for human development and social well-being. - Priority actions include: (i) construction of new health units, schools and social service posts; (ii) improving quality and availability of basic services in all regions; (iii) incentive policies for provision of services in rural and remote areas; (iv) construction, expansion, extension and modernization of cultural and sports infrastructures. - Program 3.4.3 - Administration Infrastructure - Aim: ensure adequate infrastructure for management of public administration, defense, law, order, security and justice. - Priority actions include: (i) construction, maintenance and rehabilitation of buildings and equipment for public institutions; (ii) investments in technology and trained human resources; (iv) development of policies to promote gender equality and combat violence. - Program 3.4.4 – Integrated Territorial Development and Organization and Sustainable Infrastructure - Aim: promote integrated and sustainable territorial organization and planning considering environmental, social and economic aspects. - Priority actions include: (i) drafting and implementation of municipal and regional master plans; (ii) definition of land use regulations that promote environmental and social sustainability; (iii) promotion of participation of non-governmental actors in decision-making processes; (iv) implementation of a monitoring and evaluation system. ### Pillar IV. Governance, Peace and Security — Objectives and anticipated outcomes - Overarching aim: strengthen and modernize government institutions, guarantee national and internal security, promote peace and justice, and create a safe and stable environment. - Pillar objectives (selected): - Strengthen government institutions and public service delivery mechanisms to ensure greater efficiency, transparency, integrity and accountability. - Modernize and computerize public service systems and digitize administrative processes. - Promote decentralization and citizen participation in local decision-making. - Promote ethics, integrity and the fight against corruption. - Strengthen internal control bodies and monitoring and evaluation mechanisms for public policies. - Strengthen national defense and security; prevent and combat crime and terrorism; protect national territory and critical infrastructure. - Promote peaceful resolution of conflicts, protect human rights and guarantee access to justice. - Anticipated Outcomes (4.2) - Improved national security and the fight against crime. - Increased citizen confidence in public institutions. - Greater government transparency and integrity. - Greater enjoyment of rights and legal protection. - Reduced corruption and impunity. - Improved efficiency and effectiveness of public administration. - Local development and reduction of regional inequalities. ### Main Indicators and Targets — Governance and justice (4.3) - Indicator1: Political stability and absence of violence / terrorism (points 0 to 100). Target: Increase the points for perception of political stability and absence of violence/terrorism from 11.3 to 63.4. - Indicator2: Voice and responsibility, (points 0 to 100). Target: Increase voice and responsibility perception from 31.4 points to 63.5 points. - Indicator3: Rule of Law, (points 0 to 100). Target: Increase perception of the rule of law from 15.9 points to 54.5 points. - Indicator4: Government Effectiveness, (points 0 to 100). Target: Increase perception of government effectiveness from 22.6 points to 56.9 points. - Indicator5: Regulatory Quality, (points 0 to 100). Target: Increase the perception of the quality of regulation from 24.5 points to 58.6 points. - Indicator6: Control of Corruption, (points 0 to 100). Target: Increase the perception of the control of corruption from 15.9 points to 42 points. - Indicator7: Resolution rate of court cases. Target: Increase the resolution rate of court cases from 62.0% to 100%. - Indicator8: Time taken to resolve the dispute (in months). Target: reduce the time taken to resolve cases from 6 months to 3 months. - Indicator9: Degree of user satisfaction with the quality of services provided by the public administration (scale from 0 to 10). Target: Increase the level of satisfaction from 2.9 to 5.3. - Indicator10: Population with media services (%). Target: Increase the percentage of the population with media services from 22% to 40.2%. ### Priority Programs under Pillar IV (selected) - Program 4.4.1 - National Defense, Internal and State Security - Aim: ensure national unity, defense and security; protect territorial integrity and natural resources. - Priority actions: (i) strengthening defense and security institutions; (ii) improving defense capacity and border protection; (iii) promoting national integration and social cohesion; (iv) education and awareness on national sovereignty; (v) preventing and combating internal and external threats including cyber security; (vi) preventing and combating violent extremism and transnational crime. - Program 4.4.2 - Democracy and Participation - Aim: strengthen democracy and promote active participation of the population in political decisions. - Priority actions: (i) improving democratic institutions; (ii) increasing participation of non-governmental actors in decision-making; (iii) respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms; (iv) transparency and accountability; (v) dialogue between government and civil society; (vi) training community leaders and raising citizens' awareness. - Program 4.4.3 - Reform and Modernization of Public Administration - Aim: promote significant changes in structure, functioning and culture of public administration to make it more efficient, transparent, responsive and results-oriented. - Priority actions: (i) simplification and rationalization of administrative procedures; (ii) development of integrated information systems; (iii) training and development of human resources and Public Administration training institutions; (iv) promoting transparency and accountability; (v) encouraging civic participation; (vi) innovation and adoption of good management practices. - Program 4.4.4 - Administrative and Financial Decentralization and De-concentration - Aim: strengthen administrative and financial decentralization for balanced regional development and more effective governance. - Priority actions: (i) strengthening institutional capacities of local authorities; (ii) promoting community participation in decision-making and local management; (iii) developing decentralized public service delivery policies; (iv) improving financial management and resource allocation; (v) improving efficiency and transparency in management of local public resources. - Program 4.4.5 - Strengthening the Prevention of and Fight Against Corruption, Economic and Financial Crime - Aim: strengthen efforts to combat illegal activities affecting the economy, financial system and public administration integrity. - Priority actions: (i) strengthening law enforcement and justice institutions; (ii) improving laws and regulations related to the fight against economic crime and corruption; (iii) strengthening institutional framework for management and transparency; (iv) raising public awareness; (v) developing prevention and early detection mechanisms; (vi) international cooperation. - Program 4.4.6 - Cooperation - Aim: strengthen partnerships between government and national and international partners to promote sustainable and inclusive socio-economic development. - Priority actions: (i) support for implementation of public policies and priority projects; (ii) establishing cooperation agreements in various areas; (iii) strengthening institutional and human capacities of cooperation partners; (iv) promoting transparency, accountability and efficiency in resource management; (v) jointly tackling global challenges and strengthening economic diplomacy. *Source: 1mozea2024004 - 3.2 Anticipated Outcomes* ### 165. The Environmental Sustainability, Climate Change and Circular Economy ### The Environmental Sustainability, Climate Change and Circular Economy ### Pillar overview - Focus: integrated approach combining blue economy and green economy principles to achieve sustainable development. - Goals: protect natural ecosystems, biodiversity, genetic diversity, and ecological processes; use resources efficiently; reduce and recover waste; design products to be reused, repaired and recycled. - Emphasis: strengthen adaptation and climate risk management (prepare for, respond to and recover from adverse events), mitigation and low-carbon development. ### Strategic objectives (5.1) - Promote sustainable management of natural resources and transition to a circular economy (reduction, reuse, recycling). - Promote a just transition grounded in equity, social justice, transparency and respect for rights of workers and affected communities. - Stimulate renewal of fishing and aquaculture patterns, ship recycling, decommissioning of offshore platforms, renewable energies at sea, blue tourism, maritime transport, blue biotechnology. - Encourage sustainable practices in industries (offshore, deep offshore and onshore) and productive sectors; promote energy efficiency, reduction of losses and responsible use of natural resources. - Promote integrated national development resilient to climate change and reduce vulnerability of people and communities to disease transmission vectors associated with climate change, natural and built capital. - Improve intersectoral coordination of major investments, particularly in mineral extraction, hydrocarbon production and renewable energies, coastal and land areas, maritime space and inland waters, especially where sensitive ecosystems may exist. - Strengthen technical and institutional capacities for environmental management and promotion of the circular economy and access additional sources of climate finance for sustainable development initiatives. - Promote climate resilience and adaptive practices in key sectors such as agrarian (agriculture, forestry, livestock and fisheries), energy (offshore and onshore) and transport. - Promote low-carbon development through investments in clean and sustainable technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. - Promote environmental education and public awareness, involving civil society, companies and institutions in adopting sustainable practices and enhancing the circular economy. - Foster partnerships and regional and international cooperation for sustainable management of natural resources, including conservation, sustainable forest management and carbon markets; exchange knowledge, technologies and good practices in the circular economy allied to blue and green. - Regularly monitor and evaluate progress and results of implemented actions to continuously improve sustainable development practices. - Strengthen the early warning system and institutional capacity to prepare for imminent extreme weather events and relief operations during and after shocks. ### Expected results (5.2) - Preservation of natural resources. - Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions including air pollution through sustainable management of habitats, urban and industrial waste. - Strengthening environmental resilience and adaptation, including reducing impacts of natural disasters and mitigating greenhouse gases. - Increasing efficiency in the energy matrix through a just energy transition. - Minimizing the production of waste. - Promoting sustainable use of ocean and coastal resources. - Promoting the circular economy (recycle and reuse) combined with the blue and green economy. - Reducing occurrence and mortality from water-borne diseases, especially cholera and malaria. - Reducing impact of loss and damage from tropical cyclones and other extreme events, rising sea levels, coastal erosion, particularly in coastal areas and on tourist infrastructures. ### Main indicators and targets (5.3) - Indicator 1: Urban Structure Plans drawn up. Target: develop urban structure plans from 2 to 10. - Indicator 2: Hectares of reclaimed land (ha). Target: to increase the hectares of reclaimed land from 181,213. Ha to 220,265.5 ha. - Indicator 3: Areas with updated topographic maps Km2. Target: to increase the areas with updated topographic maps from 30,000.0 Km2 to 50,188.9 km2. - Indicator 4: Environmental Performance Index, (points 0 to 100). Target: to increase the Environmental Performance Index score from 31.7 points to 59.9 points. - Indicator 5: Ecosystem vitality, (points from 0 to 100). Target: Increase the score on the vitality of the ecosystem from 44.5 points to 64.1 points. - Indicator 6: Climate change, (points from 0 to 100). Target: increase the climate change score from 19.3 points to 67.3 points. - Indicator 7: Environmental health, (points from 0 to 100). Target: Increase the environmental health score from 28.3 points to 48.4 points. - Indicator 8: Level of liquid fuel adulteration (%). Target: Reduce the level of fuel adulteration from 40% to 20.4%. - Indicator 9: Capacity to forecast and respond to extreme events, floods and droughts (number of days). Target: to reduce the number of days spent forecasting and responding to extreme events from 5 days to 2 days. - Indicator 10: Company and institution participation in circular economy and sustainability programs, (in %). Target: increase to 35%. ### Priority programs (5.4) - Program 5.4.1 - Environmental Management - Objective: promote efficient and sustainable management of conservation, biodiversity, natural resources and water recharge areas to minimize environmental impacts and encourage sustainable exploitation practices. - Focus areas: - Conservation and management of ecosystems, biodiversity and genetic diversity. - Management of water resources and protection of river basins to ensure quality water availability. - Sustainable forestry and marine management; responsible exploitation and reforestation programs. - Waste and pollution management: policies and strategies to promote waste reduction, reuse and recycling. - Expected benefits: conservation of biodiversity and natural ecosystems, sustainable management of water and forest resources, reduction of pollution. - Climate adaptation measures: protection of coastal ecosystems and reforestation of degraded areas to increase ecosystem resilience. - Strong environmental education and community engagement component to raise public awareness and promote local community participation in territorial planning and conservation projects. - Program 5.4.2 - Climate Change and Disaster Management - Objective: strengthen resilience to disasters and climate change; reduce vulnerability of communities and infrastructures; promote development of a green and low-carbon economy. - Delivery approach: multidisciplinary, collaborative participation from public sector, private sector, civil society and local communities. - Focus areas: - Climate Risk Assessment: comprehensive studies to map and assess risks and vulnerabilities (coastal flooding, drought, desertification, exposure to extreme weather events). - Developing integrated Adaptation Strategies: identify sector-specific measures for agriculture, water resources, public health, infrastructure and natural ecosystems; define adaptation priorities through stakeholder consultation. - Implementation of Adaptation Measures: construct infrastructure resistant to extreme weather; develop irrigation and water management systems; promote clean and sustainable technologies; integrate adaptation into development policies, programs and projects. - Monitoring and evaluation systems: track progress, assess effectiveness and impact, and periodically review adaptation strategies based on new scientific information and lessons learned. - Coordination and Partnerships: promote intersectoral coordination and collaboration; establish strategic partnerships with regional and international organizations for knowledge and resource sharing. - Program 5.4.3 - Circular Economy - Objective: promote a sustainable and inclusive economic model based on reduction, reuse and recycling to minimize environmental impact and maximize resource efficiency. - Focus areas: - Promoting sustainable production, consumption and disposal practices. - Encouraging reuse and recycling through policies and incentives. - Establishing a humane and dignified waste segregation and recovery process. - Development of sustainable value chains where by-products become inputs for other processes. - Education and awareness campaigns and programs on circular economy principles and benefits. - Innovation and research: invest in R&D of technologies facilitating the transition to a circular economy. - Collaboration and partnerships with private sector, civil society and other stakeholders to drive adoption of circular practices. ### Implementation mechanism (IX) - Operationalization (9.1) - The National Development Strategy (NDS) is a long-term planning and budgeting instrument to align national development with other planning instruments. - A national program portfolio was created to reflect priority programs and ensure articulation with sectoral and territorial strategies, the Five-Year Program and Plan, the Medium-Term Fiscal Scenario, the Economic and Social Plan and the State Budget. - Sectoral, Territorial and Municipal Strategic Plans: 10-year horizon; must align with NDS vision, mission, values, principles, objectives, pillars, result indicators and targets. - Program, Five-Year Plans and Five-Year Plans for Municipalities: 5-year horizon; must align with the national program portfolio. - Medium-Term Fiscal Scenario (MTFS): defines macroeconomic and fiscal framework for 3 years and establishes fiscal targets for implementation of Five-Year Program and Plans and Strategic Plans. - Economic and Social Plan and State Budget (PESOE) and municipal equivalents: define main objectives and financial policy for 1 year; must be based on the national program portfolio and identify resources needed. - Bodies and responsibilities (9.2) - Strengthen structures for implementation, coordination, supervision, management, accountability, monitoring and evaluation at central, provincial and district levels. - Institutional roles: - Council of Ministers (chaired by the President of the Republic): supervises and guides implementation of the NDS; approves short-, medium- and long-term instruments; meets every three months to assess progress via reports from the Prime Minister's Office. - Office of the Prime Minister: ensure implementation; receives reports from coordinating ministry. - Ministry that oversees Planning and Finance: coordinates and implements the NDS; mobilizes financial resources; draws up budgets; seeks external funding and public-private partnerships; reports to the Prime Minister's Office. - Central bodies (Ministerial areas and central State Secretariats), provincial bodies (Provincial State Representation Body (OREP) and Provincial Decentralized Governance Body (OGDP)) and municipal bodies: implement and technically execute strategies and programs; report on execution and targets regularly (quarterly, half-yearly, annually, five-yearly, mid-term review and final review); identify challenges and propose initiatives; participate in public-private partnerships and investments; monitor and evaluate progress and report to inter-ministerial or intersectoral coordinator of ENDE. - Additional mechanisms: National Development Observatories for public participation at central and regional level. *Source: The Environmental Sustainability, Climate Change and Circular Economy (chapter).* ### 185. The National Development Observatory is a participatory mechanism for ### 185. The National Development Observatory is a participatory mechanism for ### Governance and oversight structure - The National Development Observatory: a participatory mechanism for dialogue and convergence of ideas between stakeholders in the national development process, including representatives of the government, the private sector, national and international partners, non-governmental organizations and civil society. The forum aims to identify challenges and opportunities in areas of action and propose initiatives in line with the objectives of the National Strategy. - The National Assembly: responsible for supervising and overseeing the implementation of the NDS, ensuring alignment with national interests and efficient and effective use of public resources, especially regarding the execution of the national budget and evaluation of public policies implemented by the government. - The Provincial Assembly: responsible for overseeing, monitoring and evaluating the implementation of the NDS at provincial level, ensuring goals and objectives are achieved and safeguarding provincial population interests, in support of the Assembly of the Republic, according to the principle of subsidiarity. - The Municipal Assembly: responsible for supervising, monitoring and evaluating the implementation of the NDS at municipal level, ensuring goals and objectives are achieved and safeguarding municipal population interests, in support of the Provincial Assembly, in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity. - The Administrative Court: controls the legality of administrative acts and application of regulations issued by the Public Administration; oversees the legality of public expenditure and enforcement of liability for financial infractions; controls implementation and execution of the NDS's short-, medium- and long-term operationalization instruments to ensure strategy goals are achieved; guarantees transparency and legality in execution of NDS actions. ### Financing approach and principles - Financing development is crucial to the successful implementation of the National Development Strategy (NDS). The NDS financing approach involves mobilizing financial resources from various sources, combining both conventional and innovative methods. - Emphasis on efficiency and sustainability in the use of resources; the Government will ensure resources are managed responsibly and transparently and applied effectively to promote sustainable and balanced development. ### Sources of funding for the NDS (enumerated) - i. Government revenues: collection of taxes and other fiscal revenues crucial to covering a significant part of the costs. - Direct and Indirect Taxes: expand public revenue base through direct taxes (such as income tax) and indirect taxes (such as VAT); strengthen tax system and implement tax reforms to increase efficiency and effectiveness in tax collection. - Fees and contributions: adjust to better reflect services provided by the government. - Improved Tax Administration: modernize tax administration systems and strengthen enforcement to combat tax evasion and increase revenue. - Management of Natural Resource Revenues: manage revenues from natural resources, such as oil and gas, in accordance with the Sovereign Fund Law. - ii. Loans and External Financing: international financial institutions and multilateral organizations (World Bank, IMF), African Development Bank (AfDB) and regional organizations, international cooperation agencies (USAID, JICA), lines of credit and long-term financing through partner countries and economic blocs such as the European Union. - iii. Public-Private Partnerships (PPP): share resources and risks in large-scale infrastructure (highways, ports, airports); accelerate infrastructure development; bring efficiency and innovation; use concessions and partnership contracts. - iv. Foreign Direct Investments (FDI): incentives for foreign investors; special economic zones; stability and legal security; transfer of technology and know-how. - v. National and International Funding: National Development Banks (e.g., BNDES), multilateral development banks (World Bank, AfDB), international cooperation funds (GGD, IFAD), microfinance and community financing. - vi. Expense Management as a Source of Funding: operational and allocative efficiency via review of processes and procedures, focus on priority areas, waste reduction, rationalization of expenses to free resources for reinvestment in NDS priorities. ### Resource allocation mechanisms - Resource allocation will use a combination of mechanisms including: - Public Budget: prioritizing investments aligned with NDS objectives. - Specific Development Funds: directing resources to priority areas. - Tax Incentives and Subsidies: stimulating investments in strategic sectors. ### Cost estimate by pillar and implementation phase (indicative estimates of 2025-2044 NDS funding) - Table of indicative estimates (Million MZN / Million USD) for 2025-2044: - Pillar I Structural Transformation of the Economy: 11,283,431,714 (Million MZN) | 176,579,526 (Million USD) - Pillar II Social and Demographic Transformation: 1,528,824,769 (Million MZN) | 23,925,270 (Million USD) - Pillar III Infrastructure, Organization and Territorial Planning: 1,580,288,585 (Million MZN) | 24,730,651 (Million USD) - Pillar IV Governance, Peace and Security: 1,364,647,435 (Million MZN) | 21,355,985 (Million USD) - Pillar V Environmental Sustainability, Climate Change and Circular Economy: 1,092,255,225 (Million MZN) | 17,061,897 (Million USD) - Grand Total: 16,849,447,728 (Million MZN) | 263,653,329 (Million USD) - Additional statement in source: "The indicative estimates for development funding over the 20 years could be 16.8 billion Meticais, corresponding to USD 263.7 billion." ### Monitoring and evaluation - Continuous monitoring and evaluation to track implementation progress and measure impact through indicators and result targets. - Use of SISTAFE Monitoring and Evaluation Subsystem instruments and reports of the National Statistics Institute. - Monitoring and evaluation to be carried out at national, provincial, district, municipal and lower levels using the matrix of national development indicators; achievements monitored in terms of results and impact in the short, medium and long term. - Reporting cadence: - Annually through the Balance of Execution and Implementation of the Economic and Social Plan and State Budget. - Mid-term evaluation every five (5) years to verify achievement of main objectives and targets and make adjustments. - Evaluation at the end of the strategy's implementation period to assess success of objectives and targets. - Indicators: selection prioritized availability and monitorability of information; some indicators may be insufficient for the strategy's ambitions due to limited statistical data; as a rolling document, the NDS expects new indicators to emerge over time for inclusion. ### Identified risks and mitigation measures - Planning assumption: optimistic average growth of 9.2% by 2044, with risks including security in the north and resumption of LNG projects. - Selected risks, their drivers, and mitigation measures: - i. Risk of weak consolidation of the fiscal balance: - Drivers: national and international economic dynamics, reduced performance of economic sectors, climatic shocks, violent extremism in the northern region, oil price volatility. - Consequences: increase in budget deficit, increase in public debt, increase in tax burden, potential insolvency. - Mitigation: implement and continue responsible fiscal policies promoting transparency, seek long-term budget balance, implement structural reforms (tax, social security and administrative), stimulate productivity, and promote public debate and greater stimulus to investment. - ii. Risk of poor diversification of the economy: - Drivers: dependence on natural resources, poor agricultural performance as raw material source, structural and regulatory barriers, insufficient investment in research, technology, innovation and entrepreneurship, unfavorable investment climate, low workforce qualifications. - Mitigation: targeted policies to improve agricultural development and its linkages to industry, identify opportunities for local value chains, restructure production processes, boost new industries (e.g., biotechnology and bioeconomy), implement trade-promoting policies and workforce training, and develop basic and support infrastructures. - iii. Risk of imbalance between economic, social and environmental progress: - Drivers: adverse shocks (Covid 19, cyclical climate events, violent extremism, market price volatility, geopolitical issues), jeopardizing sustainability and amplifying social tensions and marginalization. - Mitigation: policies promoting equity, sustainability and inclusion; increase quality and scope of health and education systems; improve public welfare, assistance and social security systems; improve tax system; proper management of water resources; implement environmental policies including gas emissions certification measures and green taxes. - iv. Risks of increased migratory flows: - Drivers: disasters and climate change effects, violent extremism in the north, regional wars and economic crises in neighboring countries. - Consequences: pressure on national public accounts and quality of life if state unprepared to receive migrants. - Mitigation: implementation of a migration policy to promote inclusive development, social cohesion and sustainable prosperity; integrate migrants into labor market and economy; optimize internalization processes and strengthen international cooperation. *Source: MEF, QM, 2024* ### 203. It should be noted that the risks selected are not specific to each sector ### 1mozea2024004 - 203. It should be noted that the risks selected are not specific to each sector ### Methodology for the NDS review - The methodology links MACRO SCENARIOS, NATIONAL ACCOUNTING, VISION 2025 & INTERNATIONAL ORIENTATION & FINANCING, where assessment of "WHERE WE ARE", CHALLENGES, SUCCESSES ACHIEVED, and RISKS feed into the NDS 2025-2044 framework. - Reference: MEF 2024. ### Pillar I — Structural transformation of the economy (selected baseline and five-year targets) - Baseline and five-year targets for growth and macro-fiscal aggregates: - Average real GDP growth rate (%), including LNG: Baseline 5.0; 2024-2028 9.0; 2029-2033 9.3; 2034-2038 9.3; 2039-2043 9.2. - Average real GDP growth rate (%), excluding LNG: Baseline 5.0; 2024-2028 5.7; 2029-2033 8.1; 2034-2038 9.2; 2039-2043 10.5. - Average annual growth in GDP per capita, including LNG (in USD): Baseline 605.9; 2024-2028 1,053.9; 2029-2033 1,676.1; 2034-2038 2,270.7; 2039-2043 3,309.3. - Average annual growth in GDP per capita, excluding LNG (in USD): Baseline 605.9; 2024-2028 948.6; 2029-2033 1324.8; 2034-2038 1,870.0; 2039-2043 2,925.0. - Unemployment rate (%): Baseline 18.4; 2024-2028 14.7; 2029-2033 11.8; 2034-2038 9.4; 2039-2043 7.5. - Average annual inflation rate (%): Baseline 7.1; 2024-2028 9.2; 2029-2033 6.4; 2034-2038 4.5; 2039-2043 3.1. - State revenue (in % of GDP): Baseline 24.9; 2024-2028 26.1; 2029-2033 27.5; 2034-2038 28.8; 2039-2043 30.3. - State expenditure (in % of GDP): Baseline 33.0; 2024-2028 38.0; 2029-2033 40.8; 2034-2038 42.8; 2039-2043 45.0. - Public Debt Stock (in % of GDP): Baseline 73.8; 2024-2028 77.5; 2029-2033 81.4; 2034-2038 57.0; 2039-2043 39.9. - Primary Balance (in % of GDP): Baseline 0.3; 2024-2028 0.8; 2029-2033 1.2; 2034-2038 3.7; 2039-2043 5.0. - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) (in % of GDP): Baseline 10.7; 2024-2028 20.3; 2029-2033 38.6; 2034-2038 42.1; 2039-2043 45.9. - Total Exports (in % of GDP): Baseline 33.6; 2024-2028 38.6; 2029-2033 44.4; 2034-2038 51.1; 2039-2043 58.7. - Exports excluding LNG (in % of GDP): Baseline 8.2; 2024-2028 10.7; 2029-2033 17.1; 2034-2038 27.4; 2039-2043 37.0. - Total Imports (in % of GDP): Baseline 60.1; 2024-2028 72.1; 2029-2033 86.5; 2034-2038 74.4; 2039-2043 55.8. - Trade balance (in % of GDP): Baseline (26.5); 2024-2028 (33.5); 2029-2033 (42.1); 2034-2038 (23.3); 2039-2043 2.9. - Trade balance excluding LNG (in % of GDP): Baseline (22.9); 2024-2028 (29.7); 2029-2033 (31.4); 2034-2038 (16.2); 2039-2043 2.1. - Sectoral contributions and weights: - Sectoral contribution to GDP growth rate — Primary: 2.3; Secondary: 0.2; Tertiary: 1.9 (baseline) with projected increases across five-year windows. - Sectoral weight in the economy as a % of GDP — Primary: 36.8; Secondary: 12.4; Tertiary: 50.8 (baseline) shifting towards Primary dominance by 2039-2043. - Productivity and competitiveness: - Average labor productivity by economic sector (USD) — Overall baseline 3,126.3; Primary 803.7; Secondary 4,586.5; Tertiary 3,275.9. - Global Competitiveness Index (points 0 to 100): Baseline 38.1; 2024-2028 40.0; 2029-2033 42.0; 2034-2038 46.2; 2039-2043 53.1. - Spending on innovation, research and development (in % of GDP): Baseline 0.3; 2024-2028 0.4; 2029-2033 0.6; 2034-2038 1.7; 2039-2043 1.8. ### Pillar II — Social and demographic transformation (selected baselines and targets) - Human development, poverty, health and education: - Human Development Index % (HDI): Baseline 0.446; 2024-2028 0.480; 2029-2033 0.554; 2034-2038 0.640; 2039-2043 0.738. - Population growth rate: Baseline 2.5; 2024-2028 2.3; 2029-2033 2.1; 2034-2038 1.9; 2039-2043 1.8. - Inequality Index (GINI): Baseline 0.5; 2024-2028 0.5; 2029-2033 0.4; 2034-2038 0.4; 2039-2043 0.3. - Proportion of the population living below the national poverty line (%): Baseline 68.2; 2024-2028 62.2; 2029-2033 51.3; 2034-2038 37.8; 2039-2043 27.9. - Incidence of Multidimensional Poverty %: Baseline 53.0; 2024-2028 43.6; 2029-2033 35.8; 2034-2038 29.5; 2039-2043 24.2. - Life expectancy at birth (years): Baseline 55.7; 2024-2028 58.5; 2029-2033 61.4; 2034-2038 64.5; 2039-2043 67.7. - Percentage of children under 5 with chronic malnutrition (%): Baseline 37.0; 2024-2028 35.5; 2029-2033 29.8; 2034-2038 20.3; 2039-2043 18.7. - Infant mortality rate (per thousand live births): Baseline 39.0; 2024-2028 34.9; 2029-2033 27.6; 2034-2038 21.8; 2039-2043 17.2. - Percentage use of modern methods among women aged 15-49: Baseline 25.4; 2024-2028 31.5; 2029-2033 39.0; 2034-2038 48.3; 2039-2043 59.8. - Illiteracy rate of 15 years and over: Baseline 38.3; 2024-2028 33.9; 2029-2033 28.1; 2034-2038 23.3; 2039-2043 19.3. - Average years of schooling: Baseline 3.6; 2024-2028 3.9; 2029-2033 4.4; 2034-2038 4.8; 2039-2043 5.4. - Percentage of households covered by basic social protection programs: Baseline 15.3; 2024-2028 19.0; 2029-2033 25.8; 2034-2038 33.5; 2039-2043 43.6. - Government spending on social protection programs: Baseline 61.6; 2024-2028 64.7; 2029-2033 67.9; 2034-2038 71.3; 2039-2043 74.9. - Gender and youth indicators: - Gender Development Index (GDI): Baseline 0.922; 2024-2028 0.931; 2029-2033 0.941; 2034-2038 0.950; 2039-2043 0.959. - Gender Inequality Index: Baseline 0.523; 2024-2028 0.554; 2029-2033 0.588; 2034-2038 0.623; 2039-2043 0.660. - Life expectancy at birth — Men: Baseline 52.90; 2024-2028 57.1; 2029-2033 61.7; 2034-2038 66.6; 2039-2043 72.0. - Life expectancy at birth — Women: Baseline 58.22; 2024-2028 63.5; 2029-2033 68.5; 2034-2038 74.0; 2039-2043 79.9. - Average Years of Schooling — Men: Baseline 4.50; 2024-2028 5.0; 2029-2033 5.4; 2034-2038 5.7; 2039-2043 6.0. - Average Years of Schooling — Women: Baseline 2.60; 2024-2028 2.81; 2029-2033 3.26; 2034-2038 3.91; 2039-2043 4.85. - Participation rate in the labor force (PEA) — Men: Baseline 87.1; 2024-2028 88.8; 2029-2033 90.6; 2034-2038 92.4; 2039-2043 94.3. - Participation rate in the labor force (PEA) — Women: Baseline 83.1; 2024-2028 85.6; 2029-2033 88.2; 2034-2038 90.8; 2039-2043 93.5. - Percentage of seats held by women in parliament: Baseline 42.20; 2024-2028 43.04; 2029-2033 46.49; 2034-2038 50.21; 2039-2043 54.22. ### Pillar III — Infrastructure and territorial development (selected baselines and targets) - Selected infrastructure, education and basic services indicators: - Water storage capacity (Billion m3): Baseline 10,047,610; 2024-2028 11,052,371; 2029-2033 12,157,608; 2034-2038 13,373,369; 2039-2043 14,710,706. - Goods traffic in tons per km: Baseline 15,716; 2024-2028 18,859; 2029-2033 22,631; 2034-2038 31,683; 2039-2043 44,357. - Port handling in tons per km: Baseline 48,227; 2024-2028 57,872; 2029-2033 69,447; 2034-2038 83,336; 2039-2043 100,004. - Installed capacity (GWh) for energy generation: Baseline 19,286; 2024-2028 27,000; 2029-2033 37,801; 2034-2038 52,921; 2039-2043 73,000. - Percentage of population using health services: Baseline 67.1; 2024-2028 69.8; 2029-2033 72.6; 2034-2038 75.5; 2039-2043 78.5. - Percentage of the population satisfied with the health care provided: Baseline 59.6; 2024-2028 63.2; 2029-2033 70.8; 2034-2038 79.2; 2039-2043 88.8. - Net primary school enrollment rate: Baseline 112.8; 2024-2028 115.5; 2029-2033 119.7; 2034-2038 124.0; 2039-2043 128.4. - Net secondary school enrollment rate: Baseline 43.4; 2024-2028 44.7; 2029-2033 47.4; 2034-2038 51.6; 2039-2043 57.8. - Gross enrollment rate in technical vocational education: Baseline 1.5; 2024-2028 1.9; 2029-2033 2.8; 2034-2038 4.2; 2039-2043 6.3. - Gross enrollment rate in higher education: Baseline 6.0; 2024-2028 7.5; 2029-2033 11.3; 2034-2038 16.9; 2039-2043 25.3. - Primary school pupil-teacher ratio: Baseline 58.4; 2024-2028 54.9; 2029-2033 50.0; 2034-2038 44.0; 2039-2043 38.7. - Percentage of the population consuming water from a safe source: Baseline 53.6; 2024-2028 57.4; 2029-2033 61.4; 2034-2038 65.7; 2039-2043 70.3. - Percentage of population using safe sanitation: Baseline 31.7; 2024-2028 37.1; 2029-2033 43.4; 2034-2038 50.8; 2039-2043 59.4. - Percentage of population with access to mains energy: Baseline 39.0; 2024-2028 50.7; 2029-2033 63.4; 2034-2038 79.2; 2039-2043 100. - Percentage of the population living in houses built with cement blocks: Baseline 37.3; 2024-2028 44.4; 2029-2033 52.8; 2034-2038 62.9; 2039-2043 74.8. - Percentage of the population using firewood as a source of energy or fuel for cooking: Baseline 71.9; 2024-2028 70.2; 2029-2033 63.7; 2034-2038 49.0; 2039-2043 42.2. - Birth registration coverage rate: Baseline 41.8; 2024-2028 46.0; 2029-2033 52.9; 2034-2038 60.8; 2039-2043 69.9. - Judge ratio per 100,000 inhabitants: Baseline 1.7; 2024-2028 1.9; 2029-2033 1.9; 2034-2038 2.2; 2039-2043 2.2. ### Pillar IV — Governance, peace and security (selected baselines and targets) - Governance and rule of law indicators: - Political stability and absence of violence/terrorism (points 0 to 100): Baseline 11.3; 2024-2028 24.2; 2029-2033 33.3; 2034-2038 46.0; 2039-2043 63.4. - Voice and accountability (points 0 to 100): Baseline 31.4; 2024-2028 41.2; 2029-2033 47.6; 2034-2038 55.0; 2039-2043 63.5. - Government effectiveness (points 0 to 100): Baseline 22.6; 2024-2028 31.2; 2029-2033 40.1; 2034-2038 47.8; 2039-2043 56.9. - Rule of law (points 0 to 100): Baseline 15.9; 2024-2028 21.6; 2029-2033 29.4; 2034-2038 40.0; 2039-2043 54.5. - Quality of regulation (points 0 to 100): Baseline 24.5; 2024-2028 32.5; 2029-2033 39.5; 2034-2038 48.1; 2039-2043 58.6. - Control of corruption: Baseline 15.9; 2024-2028 19.9; 2029-2033 24.8; 2034-2038 32.3; 2039-2043 42.0. - Overall Ease of Doing Business Index: Baseline 55.0; 2024-2028 57.8; 2029-2033 60.6; 2034-2038 63.7; 2039-2043 66.9. - Rate of resolution of legal cases: Baseline 60.4; 2024-2028 69.5; 2029-2033 79.9; 2034-2038 91.9; 2039-2043 100.0. - Average litigation resolution time (months): Baseline 8; 2024-2028 7; 2029-2033 5; 2034-2038 4; 2039-2043 3. - Percentage of corruption cases charged per total number of cases filed: Baseline 78.0; 2024-2028 79.6; 2029-2033 81.2; 2034-2038 82.8; 2039-2043 84.4. - Population covered by media services (%): Baseline 22.0; 2024-2028 26.4; 2029-2033 30.4; 2034-2038 34.9; 2039-2043 40.2. - Degree of user satisfaction with the quality of services provided by the Public Administration (scale 0 to 10): Baseline 2.9; 2024-2028 3.2; 2029-2033 3.7; 2034-2038 4.4; 2039-2043 5.3. ### Pillar V — Environmental sustainability, climate change and circular economy (selected baselines and targets) - Environmental metrics and resilience: - Urban Structure Plans drawn up: Baseline 2.0; 2024-2028 3.0; 2029-2033 6.0; 2034-2038 9.0; 2039-2043 11.0. - Hectares (ha) of recovered land: Baseline 181213; 2024-2028 190,273.7; 2029-2033 199,787.3; 2034-2038 209,776.7; 2039-2043 220,265.5. - Km2 of area with updated topographic maps: Baseline 30,000.0; 2024-2028 33,000.0; 2029-2033 37,950.0; 2034-2038 43,642.5; 2039-2043 50,188.9. - Environmental Performance Index (points from 0 to 100): Baseline 31.7; 2024-2028 36.1; 2029-2033 46.5; 2034-2038 53.6; 2039-2043 59.9. - Ecosystem Vitality: Baseline 44.5; 2024-2028 50.2; 2029-2033 56.6; 2034-2038 60.2; 2039-2043 64.1. - Climate Change: Baseline 19.3; 2024-2028 29.5; 2029-2033 45.2; 2034-2038 57.2; 2039-2043 67.3. - Environmental Health: Baseline 28.3; 2024-2028 28.7; 2029-2033 37.6; 2034-2038 43.3; 2039-2043 48.4. - Ow. Waste Management: Baseline 9.8; 2024-2028 24.2; 2029-2033 33.1; 2034-2038 45.3; 2039-2043 62.0. - Level of adulteration of liquid fuels (%): Baseline 40.0; 2024-2028 36.0; 2029-2033 32.4; 2034-2038 29.2; 2039-2043 20.4. - Infrastructure resilient to climate change: Baseline 7.0; 2024-2028 14.0. - Capacity to forecast and respond to extreme events, floods and droughts (number of days): Baseline 5.0; 2024-2028 5.0; 2029-2033 4.0; 2034-2038 3.0; 2039-2043 2.0. - Participation of companies and institutions in circular economy and sustainability programs (%): Baseline 0; 2024-2028 35.0. ### Vulnerability and planning note - "It should be noted that the risks selected are not specific to each sector and tend to affect all axes and challenges. The treatment of more specific risks should be addressed in sectoral and territorial plans and other short-term planning instruments." ### Glossary — key definitions (selected) - Self-employment: work without formal link to an organization. - GINI coefficient: indicator of inequality in the distribution of income; values range from 0 to 100. - Chronic malnutrition: long-term malnutrition that slows growth. - Demographic Dividend: economic benefit from increased ratio of working-age adults to dependents, contingent on sustained investment in education, skills, health, and job creation. - Human Development Index (HDI): simple average of longevity (life expectancy at birth), educational attainment, and standard of living (real GDP per capita); index calculated by dividing the sum of the three indicators by three. - Other definitions included for Employment, Life expectancy, Economically Active Population (EAP), Multidimensional Poverty, Fiscal policy, Labor productivity, Environmental performance index, Resilient infrastructures, Public-Private Partnerships. *Source: 1mozea2024004 - 203. It should be noted that the risks selected are not specific to each sector* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2024/english/1mozea2024004.pdf_