## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (1surea2024003-print-pdf)

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---

### Macroeconomic outcomes and reform progress
- Authorities implemented key reforms: fully eliminated fuel subsidies; started to phase out electricity, water, and gas subsidies; expanded the VAT base; contained the public wage bill (halted salary payments to unregistered workers and froze hiring).
- Recent outcomes:
  - Growth: estimated at 2.1 percent in 2023; returning to around 3 percent in 2024.
  - Headline inflation: fell to 21 percent yoy in April; averaged an annualized 17 percent m/m over the past 6 months; expected to fall to 14 percent y/y by end-2024.
  - External position: current account gap estimated at 1.7 percent of GDP in 2023.
  - Usable international reserves: close to 6 months of imports (123 percent of the ARA metric).
  - Bond spreads: at lowest levels on record after restructuring (timeline: start default: Jul. 10, 2020; PC restructuring: Jun. 24, 2022; bond restructuring announced: May 4, 2023; bond exchange completed: Nov. 6, 2023).
  - Banking soundness: improvements noted, but important vulnerabilities remain (NPLs 10.4 percent of loans at end-March 2024).

### Program implementation and performance (end-March 2024)
- Overall assessment:
  - Missed quantitative fiscal and monetary targets for the review but decisive corrective actions taken.
  - Institutional reforms advancing; most pending structural benchmarks implemented though capacity constraints delayed some SBs.
- Compliance highlights:
  - Met: end-March PC on ceiling on central government mineral revenue in local currency; all continuous PCs; new IT on VAT refund arrears.
  - Missed: PCs on central government fiscal balance, NIR, NDA of the central bank, and the IT on social assistance spending.
- Fiscal PC miss details:
  - Fiscal balance PC (below-the-line) missed by SRD 1.7 billion (SRD 28 million versus an adjusted target of SRD 1755 million), equivalent to 1 percent of 2024 GDP.
  - Main drivers: tax revenue underperformance SRD 510 million; overspending on electricity subsidies SRD 710 million.
  - VAT and customs duty revenues underperformed by SRD 400 million; goods and services overspending by SRD 60 million.
  - Authorities requested a waiver for non-observance and took corrective actions (cap transfers to electricity company, stricter VAT enforcement, stopped salary payments to unregistered civil servants).
  - Proposed recalibration of fiscal targets for end-June and end-September; end-December target unchanged.
- Monetary and reserve targets:
  - NIR floor missed by USD 2.6 million due to MoFP clearance of FX arrears not captured in CBvS cashflow projections.
  - NDA ceiling missed due to larger-than-projected withdrawals of government deposits.
  - Authorities requested waivers for NIR and NDA PCs and have taken corrective actions to improve information sharing; monetary targets proposed to be recalibrated.

### Policy outlook (fiscal/monetary stance)
- Monetary and fiscal restraint to continue supporting disinflation and public debt reduction.
- Primary central government surplus target of 2.7 percent of GDP in 2024 supported by measures including:
  - Wage bill: maintain at 6.7 percent of GDP in 2024; remove unregistered workers (around 4 percent of workers remain unregistered at end-March).
  - VAT: 60 percent of consumption basket taxed at 10 percent; introduce new 5 percent rate on water, electricity and cooking gas in June 2024; over 4,200 companies registered for VAT at end-April 2024.
  - Fuel taxes: specific taxes reimposed, generating 0.8 percent of GDP in 2024.
  - Non-tax revenues: measures estimated to bring 0.6 percent of GDP in 2024.
  - Electricity tariffs: average increased by 36 percent in 2023 and by 38 percent in March 2024; commercial tariffs to reach cost recovery in June; further 7 percent hikes planned in May, July, September, November 2024.
  - LPG subsidies: cumulative price increases of 27 percent by June; subsidy to be fully eliminated by September 2025.
  - Cash transfers: increased by 0.3 percent of GDP in 2023; additional bonus paid in January.
  - Capital spending: increase to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2024; climate resilience integrated into appraisal and selection.
- Primary Balance (memo): 1.0 (2022), 1.3 (2023), 2.7 (2024), 3.5 (2025).

### Key risks and potential upside
- Near-term downside risks:
  - Policy implementation challenges, especially due to social and political pressures before elections.
  - Materialization of credit losses in banks could create deposit outflows and financial instability.
  - Weak capacity across institutions.
  - External risk: deterioration in terms of trade from higher oil prices and/or lower gold prices.
- Medium-term upside:
  - Final investment decision on large new oil fields expected by end of the year; production scheduled to begin in 2028—potential to boost growth, employment, exports, fiscal revenues; requires caution to avoid misallocation and Dutch Disease dynamics.

---

### GROSS FINANCING NEEDS, PUBLIC DEBT, AND ARREARS

### Gross financing needs and debt sustainability
- Program parameter for GFN: under 12 percent of GDP in any year, and under 9 percent on average over the medium- to long-term.
- Public debt trajectory:
  - Public debt expected to fall below 70 percent by 2028.
  - Suriname’s public debt judged sustainable on a forward-looking basis under program assumptions.
- Gross financing needs (memo projections, select series):
  - Gross financing needs (percent of GDP): 13.9-4.12.76.65.40.76.610.24.03.41.42.72.32.4 (series as presented).
  - Gross financing needs (incl. arrear clearance) (percent of GDP): 5.6 (2023), 6.2 (2024), 3.7 (2025), 3.2 (2026), 6.5 (2027), 7.5 (2028), 7.9 (2029), 7.5 (2030), 7.9 (2031), 7.9 (2032), 8.1 (2033).
- Public central government debt (percent of GDP) (selected): 84.0 146.4 115.8 118.5 91.8 92.9 87.9 87.9 82.2 82.0 77.7 73.1 69.4 64.7 (table series).

### Arrears and stocks
- Legacy debts to CBvS restructured into a new loan; advances repaid; all domestic debt arrears cleared (excluding other accounts payable and VAT refund arrears described below).
- Other accounts payable (mostly suppliers): SRD 7.3 billion (4 percent of GDP) in March.
- VAT refund arrears: roughly SRD 790 million (0.5 percent of GDP).
- Authorities’ commitments and timelines:
  - Process all VAT refund arrears by end-2024.
  - Gradually clear all other accounts payable by end-2027.
  - Establish quarterly ceilings on expenditure commitments by line ministry and require prior authorization from MoF before signing contracts.
- Domestic arrear repayment schedule in 2024 (net basis):
  - Arrear repayments: 4,970 SRD millions, 3.0% of GDP.
  - Commercial banks and NBFIs: 1,870 SRD millions, 1.1% of GDP.
  - Gold loan: 611 SRD millions, 0.4% of GDP.
  - Suppliers: 1,679 SRD millions, 1.0% of GDP.
  - VAT refunds: 809 SRD millions, 0.5% of GDP.

### Strengthening fiscal institutions and PFM
- Actions and timelines include:
  - Improve recording, reporting, and payment of external and domestic public debt; build capacity of the debt management office (Fund CD support).
  - Strengthen quarterly budget execution reports.
  - Ensure Minister of Finance can access all government bank accounts.
  - Establish a TSA for a subset of line ministries (end-Jan 2025 SB).
  - Implement procurement law and publish report quantifying principal fiscal risks of largest SOEs.

---

### MONETARY POLICY, FX, AND FINANCIAL SECTOR

### Monetary policy stance and liquidity operations
- CBvS policy: target decline in monetary base in real terms via OMOs to keep growth rate below nominal GDP consistent with inflation target.
- Monetary targets recalibrated to maintain tight monetary policy while accounting for disinflation.
- Private sector credit growth slowed to 6 percent yoy (collectively in FX and SRD).
- Recommendation: allow banks’ Term Deposits held at CBvS to be used as collateral for CBvS liquidity facilities (with appropriate haircuts); review and simplify two separate systems for holding reserves.
- Electronic FX trading expected to launch in June to improve transparency, liquidity and price discovery.
- CBvS strengthening of FX reserves management drawing on Fund CD.

### Reserves and FX assessment
- Gross international reserves (USD millions): 648 585 992 1,195 1,346 1,346 1,554 1,355 1,580 1,390 1,461 1,503 1,499 1,432 (table series).
- Usable international reserves (USD millions): 505 129 512 865 1,112 1,112 1,320 1,121 1,345 1,156 1,227 1,268 1,265 1,198 (table series).
- Usable international reserves in 2023: USD 1,112 million (6 months of imports; 124 percent of ARA EM metric).
- Authorities to cease practice of directly providing forex to essential mineral exporters in June 2024; mineral companies to pay all government revenue obligations in FX from July.

### Financial sector soundness and reform
- Banking system indicators (select):
  - NPLs: 10.4 percent of loans at end-March 2024.
  - Reported CAR for banking system: 21.6 percent as of March 2024.
  - Liquid assets: 54.2 percent of total assets; liquidity skewed to two systemic banks.
  - Banks with capital shortages (5.4 percent of sector assets) submitted recap plans; expected to reach CET1 by end-2024 and CAR by end-2026.
- Recapitalization and governance:
  - Any public support to private banks subject to strict conditionality and exit strategy.
  - New governance framework for government-owned banks to run on fully commercial basis.
  - Recapitalization of state-owned bank planned for 2025, coinciding with board and senior management reform.
- AML/CFT and governance:
  - CBvS governance bodies fully constituted; FY2021 and FY2022 financial statements expected to be published by end-June and end-September 2024 respectively.
  - Suriname placed on enhanced follow up by CFATF; work underway and a new national risk assessment planned for mid-2024.
  - Structural benchmarks: amend anti-corruption legal framework by end-June; enact income and asset declaration requirements by end-September.

---

### DEBT RESTRUCTURING, DSA HIGHLIGHTS, AND EXTERNAL SECTOR

### Debt treatment summary
- Paris Club: no face value reduction; amortization paused for 7 years (until 2028).
- ECA-backed commercial debt: amortization paused for 8 years (until 2029); no face value reduction.
- EXIM India/China: 60 percent of end-2021 arrears paid for EXIM India; EXIM China agreement in principle signed in March 2024.
- Bondholders: AIP in May 2023; exchange finalized Nov. 2023; new bonds principal USD 650 million plus USD 10 million for fees; cash coupon 4.95 percent; capitalized coupon 3 percent until Jan 2026 then 7.95 percent; amortization in 14 semi-annual installments starting 2027; VRI linked to an oil project (capped aggregate USD 787 million; program baseline does not incorporate VRI receipts).
- CBvS restructuring: legacy debts restructured into new loan with 2-year grace and 27-year maturity; short-term advances repaid in 2023.

### DSA key projections and risks
- Public debt (percent of GDP) baseline path (selected):
  - 2023: 92.9; 2024: 87.4; 2025: 82.0; 2026: 77.7; 2027: 73.1; 2028: 69.4; 2029: 64.7; 2033: 48.1.
- Gross external financing requirements and sources: detailed levels and percent-of-GDP series preserved in source tables (see Tables and Annexes).
- Debt dynamics drivers and assumptions:
  - Nominal haircut by restructuring reduced public debt by 6.7 percent of GDP in 2023 (table figures preserved).
  - Recapitalization assumption: 4.7 percent of GDP added in 2024 (4.3 percent CBvS; 0.4 percent commercial banks).
  - IMF credit outstanding peaks in 2025 at 50 and 12½ percent of usable reserves and GDP, respectively (staff projection note).
  - Annual debt service to Fund peaks in 2029 at 4.1 percent of exports of goods and services.
- DSA risk assessment:
  - Overall risk of sovereign stress: High.
  - Medium-term risks: High (fan-chart width, macro-fiscal shock volatility).
  - GFN financeability module suggests low risk; fanchart tool gives a high risk signal.
  - Staff view: restructuring scenario makes debt sustainable but public debt remains high and vulnerable; recapitalization needs could raise risks.

### External position and NIIP
- External assessment:
  - External position in 2023 moderately stronger than level implied by fundamentals; CA gap estimated 1.7 percent of GDP.
  - NIIP: -70.7 percent of GDP in 2023 (improved from -80.4 percent in 2022).
- Current account and trade (selected figures, USD millions as presented):
  - Current account series: -448 260 176 768 914 792 131 85 113 111 109 110 (table series).
  - Exports of goods and services series: 2,287 2,447 2,300 2,600 2,686 2,534 2,742 2,714 2,760 ...
  - Imports of goods and services series: 2,413 1,845 1,876 2,342 2,251 2,218 2,339 ...
- Exchange rate: NEER and REER dynamics—NEER depreciated 19 percent between end-2022 and April 2023; REER depreciated 5 percent over same period; IMF EBA-Lite suggests REER undervalued by 16.6 percent in 2023 using REER model-based elasticities.
- Reserves and adequacy: usable reserves 2023 USD 1,112 million (6 months imports; 124 percent of ARA metric); staff expect accumulation to around 160 percent of ARA metric by end-2028.

---

### PROGRAM FINANCING, CONDITIONALITY, AND MONITORING

### Financing assurances and IMF support
- Staff supports completion of sixth review under EFF and financing assurances review; supports modification of performance criteria and waivers for nonobservance.
- Fund credit outstanding: SDR 46.7 million scheduled for the sixth review; SDR 19.1 million (41 percent) to be made available for budget support.
- Program financing: fully financed with firm commitments for next 12 months.
- External financing commitments:
  - IDB commits to budget support of at least USD 150 million in 2024 conditional on IMF review and its own conditionality.
  - CDB will provide USD 25 million in budget support in 2025.

### Conditionality adjustments and monitoring
- Proposed modifications:
  - Adjust QPCs on NIR and NDA for remainder of 2024 to align with macro updates.
  - Adjust QPC on primary balance for end-June 2024 and end-September 2024, keep end-December unchanged.
  - Reformulate end-June 2024 SB on FIN applicability to importers and exporters only.
- Reporting and information requirements:
  - Extensive daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual reporting items specified (reserve money, NIR, NDA, CBvS balance sheet, CG operations, VAT data, arrears, banking templates, CPI by subcomponents, etc.) with specified lags (daily to twelve months).
  - CBvS to provide daily data on direct FX purchases/sales by CBvS and/or central government from/to SOEs and private sector.

### Structural benchmarks (selected status)
- Implemented ahead of schedule: line ministries to report stock of arrears monthly (end-June SB).
- Met: continuous SB on publishing quarterly budget execution report; end-April SB issuing resolution clarifying government non-responsibility for unauthorized ministry contracts.
- Implemented with delay: CET1 and CAR targets setting for banks with capital shortages; state decree for Minister of Finance access to government bank accounts; amendment to Foreign Exchange Regulation of 1947; review of social protection expenditures with time-bound plan; full repayment of domestic debt arrears.
- Outstanding SBs expected soon: launch of FX trading platform; enactment of new Procurement Law to centralize and mandate publication of procurement tenders and awards.
- Capacity constraints remain a binding constraint on timely SB implementation.

---

### STAFF APPRAISAL AND POLICY PRIORITIES

### Staff views and priorities
- Recent macro stability attributed to prudent fiscal and monetary policies and communicated messaging should be maintained.
- Priorities and corrective actions:
  - Correct the 2024Q1 overpayment to the electricity company during the year to keep electricity subsidies within budget.
  - Phase out electricity subsidies and shift to targeted social support to create fiscal space.
  - Accelerate public sector reform to attract and retain qualified civil servants.
  - Strengthen tax administration as highest priority to collect needed revenues.
  - Strictly enforce VAT law, imposing penalties and interest on late filers/payers.
- Program conditionality support:
  - Staff supports modification of performance criteria and waivers given authorities’ commitments and corrective actions already taken.

*Source: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY and selected chapters and annexes (1surea2024003-print-pdf).*

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### Context
- The authorities’ commitment to a range of difficult policy reforms is showing results in terms of macroeconomic stability and investor perceptions: the economy is growing, inflation is declining, donor support is increasing, and international bond spreads are at historic lows.
- Key reform actions implemented over the past year:
  - Fully eliminated fuel subsidies and started to phase out electricity, water, and gas subsidies.
  - Expanded the VAT base.
  - Contained the public wage bill (including halting salary payments to unregistered workers and freezing hiring).
- Recent economic outcomes:
  - Growth is estimated at 2.1 percent in 2023, with a rebound in the second half of the year led by agriculture, transportation, construction, and hospitality-related sectors, returning to around 3 percent in 2024.
  - Headline inflation fell to 21 percent yoy in April and averaged an annualized 17 percent m/m over the past 6 months. Inflation is expected to continue falling to 14 percent y/y by end-2024.
  - The 2023 external sector position is moderately stronger than the level implied by medium term fundamentals and desirable policies; the current account gap is estimated at 1.7 percent of GDP.
  - Usable international reserves stand at close to 6 months of imports (123 percent of the ARA metric).
  - Spreads have fallen to the lowest levels on record following debt restructuring actions (timeline highlights: start default: Jul. 10, 2020; PC restructuring: Jun. 24, 2022; bond restructuring announced: May 4, 2023; bond exchange completed: Nov. 6, 2023).
  - Efforts to improve financial oversight have improved bank soundness, but important vulnerabilities remain.

### Program implementation and performance
- Overall assessment:
  - The authorities missed quantitative fiscal and monetary targets for this review but have taken decisive actions to correct course.
  - Institutional reforms are moving ahead with most pending structural benchmarks now implemented, though capacity constraints have delayed some SBs.
- Specific program compliance and breaches (end-March 2024):
  - Met: end-March PCs on the ceiling on central government mineral revenue in local currency, all continuous PCs, and the new IT on VAT refund arrears.
  - Missed: PCs on the central government fiscal balance, NIR, NDA of the central bank, and the IT on social assistance spending.
- Fiscal balance PC (below-the-line) details:
  - Missed by SRD 1.7 billion (SRD 28 million versus an adjusted target of SRD 1755 million), equivalent to 1 percent of 2024 GDP.
  - Main drivers: underperformance of tax revenues (SRD 510 million) and overspending on electricity subsidies (SRD 710 million).
  - VAT and customs duty revenues underperformed by SRD 400 million; goods and services overspending by SRD 60 million.
  - Authorities request a waiver for non-observance of the fiscal PC and have taken corrective actions (cap transfers to the electricity company, stricter enforcement of VAT compliance, stopped salary payments to unregistered civil servants).
  - Fiscal targets for end-June and end-September are proposed to be recalibrated; end-December target unchanged.
- Monetary and reserve targets:
  - PC on the NIR floor missed by USD 2.6 million due to MoFP clearance of foreign currency arrears not captured in CBvS cashflow projections.
  - Ceiling on NDA of the CBvS missed due to larger-than-projected withdrawals of government deposits for clearing supplier arrears.
  - Authorities request waivers for NIR and NDA PCs and have taken corrective actions to improve timeliness and quality of information sharing between MoFP and CBvS.
  - Monetary targets proposed to be recalibrated for remainder of the year based on macro framework updates.
- Structural benchmarks (SBs) and institutional reforms:
  - Implemented ahead of schedule: end-June SB requiring all line ministries to report stock of arrears monthly.
  - Met: continuous SB on publishing quarterly budget execution report; end-April SB issuing resolution clarifying government non-responsibility for unauthorized ministry contracts.
  - Five SBs implemented with delay, including: setting CET1 and CAR targets for banks with capital shortages; state decree for Minister of Finance access to all government bank accounts; legislative amendment to Foreign Exchange Regulation of 1947; review of social protection expenditures with time-bound plan; full repayment of domestic debt arrears.
  - Two SBs expected in coming weeks: launch of FX trading platform; enactment of new Procurement Law to centralize and mandate publication of procurement tenders and contract awards.
  - Delays: continuous SB to introduce quarterly expenditure ceilings for line ministries (requires FAD CD); end-April SB to develop time-bound plan for recapitalization of the CBvS (staff comments being incorporated).
  - Capacity constraints continue to hamper the authorities’ ambitious timeline.

### Policy outlook and fiscal measures
- Monetary and fiscal stance:
  - Monetary and fiscal restraint are expected to continue supporting disinflation and a reduction in the public debt.
- Fiscal strategy and specific measures to achieve a primary central government surplus target of 2.7 percent of GDP in 2024:
  - Wage bill: maintain at 6.7 percent of GDP in 2024; expedite removal of unregistered workers and chronically absent civil servants from payrolls (around 4 percent of workers remain unregistered at end-March).
  - VAT changes:
    - 60 percent of the consumption basket already taxed at standard 10 percent rate.
    - New 5 percent rate to be introduced on water, electricity and cooking gas in June 2024.
    - Over 4,200 companies registered for VAT at end-April 2024; refund arrears being cleared.
    - Compliance measures: imposition of late penalties and interest; “gold list” fast-tracking refunds for compliant taxpayers; fiscal identification numbers mandatory for all importers and exporters by end-June.
  - Taxes on fuel:
    - Fuel prices set by automatic pricing mechanism based on international prices.
    - Specific taxes on fuel reimposed, generating 0.8 percent of GDP in additional revenues in 2024.
  - Non-tax revenues:
    - Increased leasing fees for government land and permitted land purchase under lease.
    - Increased rates for air navigation services (unchanged for more than 10 years).
    - These measures estimated to bring 0.6 percent of GDP in revenues in 2024.
  - Electricity subsidies and tariffs:
    - Average electricity tariffs increased by 36 percent in 2023 and by 38 percent in March 2024 (reflected in April bills).
    - Electricity tariffs for commercial users set to reach cost recovery in June.
    - Further 7 percent hikes planned for households in May, July, September, and November 2024.
    - Low- and middle-income households will continue temporary discounts on energy bills while authorities work to address bottlenecks to a more effective cash transfer program.
  - Liquified petroleum gas (LPG) subsidies:
    - Cumulative LPG price increases of 27 percent by June; subsidy to be fully eliminated by September 2025.
  - Cash transfers:
    - Cash transfers increased by 0.3 percent of GDP in 2023 and a further bonus paid in January.
    - End-March IT on social assistance spending was missed due to payment delays by the MoFP; government developed a time-bound strategic plan with ILO and IDB to improve efficiency and effectiveness of social benefits and publishes monthly coverage/value reports by district.
  - Capital spending and projects:
    - Capital expenditure to increase to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2024 with climate resilience integrated into appraisal and selection.
    - Potential cross-border bridge investment with Guyana under discussion; Suriname’s share would amount to 3.5 percent of GDP and is at a preliminary evaluation stage—staff cautioned on fiscal risks of large-scale infrastructure given limited fiscal space.
- Contributions to fiscal adjustment (selected figures from the presented decomposition):
  - Primary Balance (memo): 1.0 (2022), 1.3 (2023), 2.7 (2024), 3.5 (2025).
  - Revenue and expenditure policy and non-policy factor contributions are detailed in the report’s fiscal decomposition tables.

### Risks and outlook
- Near-term downside risks:
  - Foremost: policy implementation challenges, especially if social and political pressures in the run-up to the election undermine reform execution.
  - Materialization of credit losses in banks could create deposit outflows and trigger financial instability.
  - Weak capacity poses a generalized risk to policy execution.
  - Main external risk: deterioration in terms of trade (notably from materially higher oil prices and/or lower gold prices).
- Medium-term upside risks:
  - A final investment decision on the development of large new oil fields is expected by end of this year, with production scheduled to begin in 2028.
    - Potential benefits: boost to growth and employment, higher living standards, increased export and fiscal revenues, strengthened balance of payments, and improved debt dynamics.
    - Caution: need to avoid misallocation of natural resource proceeds and Dutch Disease-type dynamics.

*Source: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (1surea2024003-print-pdf).*

### 9.      Gross financing needs are manageable and public debt is on a firmly declining

### 9.      Gross financing needs are manageable and public debt is on a firmly declining trajectory

### Fiscal position and debt sustainability
- Gross financing needs (GFN) are elevated in 2024 due to the clearance of past arrears but are still within the limits in the program.  
  - Program parameters for GFN: under 12 percent of GDP in any year, and under 9 percent on average over the medium- to long-term.
- Public debt is expected to fall below 70 percent by 2028.
- Suriname’s debt is judged to be sustainable on a forward-looking basis.

### Clearance of arrears and current stocks
- Legacy debts to the CBvS have been restructured into a new loan, advances from the CBvS to the central government have been repaid, and all domestic debt arrears had been cleared (excluding other accounts payable and VAT refund arrears described below).
- Other accounts payable, mostly to suppliers, totaled SRD 7.3 billion (4 percent of GDP) in March.
- Stock of VAT refund arrears stood at roughly SRD 790 million (0.5 percent of GDP).
- Authorities’ commitments and timelines:
  - Process all VAT refund arrears by end-2024.
  - Gradually clear all other accounts payable by end-2027.
  - Establish quarterly ceilings on expenditure commitments by line ministry (Budget Department with IMF TA).
  - Require prior authorization from the Ministry of Finance before line ministries sign contracts; line ministries to begin monthly reporting to the Ministry of Finance on their stock of arrears.

### Strengthening fiscal institutions (authorities’ actions and timelines)
- Improve the recording, reporting, and payment of external and domestic public debt, with focus on ensuring timely domestic debt payments; build capacity of the debt management office (supported by Fund CD).
- Strengthen the quality and consistency of quarterly budget execution reports.
- Ensure the Minister of Finance has the authority to access all banks accounts held by government entities at commercial banks.
- Establish a treasury single account for a subset of line ministries (end-Jan 2025 SB).
- Implement the procurement law.
- Publish a report quantifying the principal fiscal risks faced by the largest state-owned enterprises.

### Monetary policy and inflation
- Inflation is falling as a result of restrictive macroeconomic policies.
- CBvS actions and stance:
  - Continued targeting of a decline in the monetary base in real terms via open market operations to keep growth rate below that of nominal GDP, consistent with inflation target.
  - Monetary targets recalibrated to maintain tight monetary policy while accounting for anticipated disinflationary trends.
- Private sector credit growth (collectively in FX and SRDs) has slowed to 6 percent yoy.
- Liquidity and interbank market issues:
  - Little interbank market activity; some banks maintain large precautionary buffers.
  - Deposit rates are gradually rising but adjust slowly and remain negative in ex post real terms.
  - Recommendation: Allow banks’ Term Deposits held at the central bank to be used as collateral for CBvS liquidity facilities (with appropriate haircuts) to increase willingness to invest in central bank paper and reduce precautionary buffers.
  - Review and simplify the two separate systems for holding reserves at the CBvS, in line with liquidity management CD recommendations.
  - Clearance of domestic arrears will help restore domestic market access and support development of domestic debt markets.
  - Gradually moving some government SRD deposits to the CBvS, as a first step in TSA implementation, would facilitate CBvS liquidity management operations.
- Electronic FX trading is expected to be launched in June, to improve market transparency, liquidity and price discovery.
- CBvS is strengthening FX reserves management and operations, drawing on Fund CD.

### Banking sector risks and reforms
- Vulnerabilities and indicators:
  - Nonperforming loans (NPLs) are falling: 10.4 percent of loans at end-March 2024.
  - Loan loss provisions (LLPs) are declining (driven by reduction in legacy NPLs of one systemically important bank and reduction in government arrears for most banks); authorities should maintain robust provisioning.
  - Banking system liquidity: liquid assets comprise 54.2 percent of total assets, though liquidity is skewed toward the two systemic banks.
  - Retail depositors have been switching FX deposits to invest in CBCs.
- Capital and recapitalization:
  - Reported level of capital adequacy ratio for the banking system is 21.6 percent as of March 2024.
  - Banks with capital shortages (accounting for 5.4 percent of the total banking sector assets) have submitted recapitalization plans to the CBvS.
  - These banks are expected to reach the regulatory minimum for common equity tier one (CET1) by the end of 2024 and capital adequacy (CAR) by the end of 2026.
  - CBvS has established interim CET1 and CAR targets for these banks and outlined prompt corrective actions if targets are not met.
  - Any public support to private banks will have strict conditionality to minimize cost, enhance public confidence, and provide a clear exit strategy.
  - A new governance framework for government-owned banks will ensure they are run on a fully commercial basis.
  - Recapitalization of the state-owned bank will take place in 2025, coinciding with reform of its board and senior management and strengthening of internal audit systems.

### AML/CFT, governance, and audits
- CBvS governance: Council and Executive Board fully constituted; efforts to establish a regular cycle for external audits.
  - FY2021 and 2022 financial statements expected to be published by end-June and end-September 2024, respectively.
  - MoFP and CBvS are developing a plan to recapitalize the central bank; staff input may delay implementation to end-June.
- Key governance/legal reforms and timelines:
  - Amend anti-corruption legal framework by end-June to align with requirements of Chapter III of the UN Convention against Corruption.
  - Amend legal framework by end-September to require: (i) income and asset declarations of politically exposed persons; (ii) routine verification of these declarations; (iii) publication of income and asset declarations; and (iv) establishment of proportionate and dissuasive sanctions regime for non-compliance.
  - New procurement law expected to be enacted in June; will require publication of all tenders and contract awards, all procurement contracts, names of awarded entities and their beneficial owners, names of public officials awarding contracts, and ex-post validation of delivery of contracted services.
- AML/CFT supervision and CFATF status:
  - Suriname placed on enhanced follow up by the CFATF.
  - Identified needs: (i) enhance AML/CFT supervision for all financial institutions; (ii) develop and implement risk based supervisory framework for Designated Non-Financial Businesses and Professions (DNFBPs); (iii) provide adequate human, financial, and technological resources to the Financial Intelligence Unit; (iv) increase ML/TF related investigations, prosecutions and confiscations; (v) amend the International Sanctions Framework to update legal framework for UN Security Council Resolutions on Terrorism and Proliferation Financing.
  - Work underway and a new national risk assessment planned for mid-2024.

### Economic statistics and data dissemination
- Progress in improving monetary, financial and balance of payment statistics.
- Authorities increased budget of the statistics office.
- Further efforts needed to:
  - Improve production and timeliness of GDP statistics.
  - Provide more disaggregated data on consumer prices.

### Program issues, conditionality adjustments, and financing
- Proposed modifications to program conditionality:
  - Adjust the QPCs on NIR and NDA for the remainder of 2024 to align with revisions in the macro-framework and changing macroeconomic circumstances.
  - Adjust the QPC on the primary balance of the central government for end-June 2024 and end-September 2024, keeping the end-December target unchanged, to allow time for corrective actions to restore fiscal consolidation path.
  - Reformulate the end-June 2024 SB on mandating the use of Fiscal Identification Number to clarify applicability to importers and exporters only.
- Access and capacity to repay:
  - Suriname’s capacity to repay continues to be assessed as adequate under the program baseline but subject to significant risks.
  - Fund credit outstanding will peak in 2025 at 50 and 12½ percent of usable reserves and GDP, respectively, and will remain elevated through 2030.
  - Annual debt service to the Fund peaks in 2029 at 4.1 percent of exports of goods and services.
  - Out of the SDR 46.7 million scheduled for the sixth review, SDR 19.1 million (41 percent) would be made available for budget support.
- Lending into arrears:
  - Staff assess that good faith efforts are being made to reach a collaborative agreement with the remaining external creditors; these creditors are not deemed to be a holdout risk and arrears do not undermine medium-term external viability or capacity to repay the Fund. Requirements of the lending into arrears policy are judged to have been met.
- Program financing:
  - Program continues to be fully financed with firm commitments of financing for the next 12 months and good prospects for adequate financing for the remaining program period.
  - External financing commitments noted: IDB commits to providing budget support of at least USD 150 million in 2024 conditional on the IMF program review and its own conditionality; CDB will provide USD 25 million in budget support in 2025; other IFIs commit to project loan disbursements conditional on IMF review and their own conditionality.

### Staff appraisal and policy priorities
- Despite challenging socio-political environment and capacity constraints, authorities have implemented a broad range of reforms: eliminating fuel subsidies, phasing out electricity and gas subsidies, removing unregistered and chronically absent employees from the public payroll, and broadening the VAT base.
- The authorities missed the end-March primary fiscal target but are taking decisive corrective actions.
  - Causes of the miss: capacity constraints in tax administration limiting effective VAT collection; overspending on electricity subsidies due to lack of control over direct settlement mechanism by the state oil company; clearance of legacy arrears contributing to higher spending on goods and services.
- Policy priorities and recommendations:
  - Correct the 2024Q1 overpayment to the electricity company over the course of the year to keep electricity subsidies within the agreed budget envelope.
  - Phase out electricity subsidies and shift to targeted social support to create fiscal space for productive spending.
  - Make faster progress on public sector reform to attract and retain qualified civil servants.
  - Strengthen tax administration as the highest priority to collect needed revenues for priority expenditures.
  - Strictly enforce the VAT law, with penalties and interest imposed on companies that do not file or pay on time.

*Source: IMF staff report chapter "9.      Gross financing needs are manageable and public debt is on a firmly declining trajectory."*

### 27.      Recent macroeconomic stability is not an accident, but a direct result of prudent fiscal

### 27.      Recent macroeconomic stability is not an accident, but a direct result of prudent fiscal 

### Macroeconomic stability and communication
- Recent macroeconomic stability is a direct result of prudent fiscal and monetary policies.
- The government should continuously communicate this message to all stakeholders, working with the SEOB.
- Resisting political pressures to raise spending, lower taxes, and more generally backtrack on policy reforms is critical to maintain the stability that has been so painstakingly secured.
- There is scope to modestly relax monetary targets, but the central bank should:
  - monitor liquidity conditions, and
  - rigorously use all its sterilization tools to meet these revised reserve money targets.

### Financing overview (IMF staff calculations; 1/ Excludes financing from external debt restructuring)
- Total Financing gap: 2374 2130 7400 881,453
- Official financing: 3425 3308 400 881,082
- O/w: IMF: 3453 1582 506 3557
- Purchases: 5553 1582 506 3578
- O/w: for budget support: 5553 1031 0326 339
- Repurchases: 2100 0021
- O/w: IFIs: 0200 1501 5025 525
- Financing from external arrears accumulation (net): 2031 680-100371

### Cash management, arrears, and public financial management
- Work is underway to prevent the future accumulation of supplier arrears:
  - Recent reforms will require line ministries to report their planned expenditures and arrears on a monthly basis.
  - The Treasury will have to pre-authorize all large contracts.
  - These steps will help address weaknesses in cash management and spending control.

### Social safety net and expenditure effectiveness
- There is scope to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the social safety net.
- Repeated underspending of social assistance programs makes it more difficult to maintain social cohesion during this period of adjustment.
- Greater investment is needed to reach eligible beneficiaries outside of Paramaribo where poverty is especially acute.

### Debt restructuring and debt management
- The restructuring of Suriname’s debt is largely complete.
- Negotiations with the remaining small group of private external creditors are ongoing.
- The restructuring of domestic debts—including those to the central bank—has been finalized and domestic debt arrears have been eliminated.
- Vulnerabilities in the current debt management strategy should be addressed, including through greater coordination between SDMO, the MoFP, and CBvS for processing domestic debt service payments.
- In the medium term, priorities include:
  - restoring domestic market access, and
  - strengthening debt management, including through the development of a medium-term debt strategy.

### Central Bank of Suriname (CBvS) balance sheet, recapitalization, and monetary transmission
- A strong CBvS balance sheet is crucial for operational independence and robust implementation of monetary policy.
- There have been delays in the development of the recapitalization plan; combined efforts of the MoFP and the CBvS will be needed to finalize the plan.
- A successful recapitalization will help the CBvS manage its liabilities more effectively and send a positive signal to financial markets.
- The transmission of monetary policy remains weak. Measures to strengthen transmission include:
  - improving banks’ understanding of how to access CBvS liquidity facilities,
  - expediting bank requests for liquidity support to help lower precautionary balances,
  - establishing a Treasury Single Account held at the central bank to make liquidity forecasting easier.
- The central bank’s commitment to a fully flexible exchange rate is welcome and the electronic FX trading platform should soon be operational.

### Financial sector oversight, supervision, and resolution
- The CBvS is monitoring the timely implementation of recapitalization plans of the two banks with capital shortages.
- Improved risk-based supervision will help strengthen oversight of financial institutions and allow for timely identification and mitigation of vulnerabilities.
- The CBvS should increase its monitoring of non-bank financial institutions, particularly with respect to their interconnectedness with the banking system.
- The resolution framework—put in place under the recently enacted Bank Resolution Act—should now be operationalized through the issuance of relevant regulations and guidelines.
- Ongoing efforts to strengthen AML/CFT will support financial system integrity and prevent the potential loss of corresponding banking relationships.

*Source: IMF staff calculations.*

### 34.      Staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the sixth review under

### Staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the sixth review under the EFF arrangement and the financing assurances review

### Program status and Fund support
- Staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the sixth review under the EFF arrangement and the completion of the financing assurances review.
- Staff supports the authorities’ request for the modification of performance criteria and the request for waivers for the nonobservance of performance criteria.
- Staff notes the authorities’ commitment at the highest level to restoring macroeconomic and financial stability and that corrective actions taken to date, together with implementation of corrective actions, would not impede successful implementation of the program.

### Recent economic developments (highlights from figures and text)
- Monthly Economic Activity Indicator and Contributions: plotted series by sector (Government, Tertiary excl. Government, Secondary, Primary: mining, Primary other than mining, Total) covering Jun-21 through Dec-23 and beyond (figure).
- Exchange rate: Parallel market rate and Official rate series shown from Sep-21 through Mar-24 (figure).
- Inflation: 3M/3M annualized inflation and Y/Y inflation series shown (figure).
- Gross international reserves and usable reserves plotted (figures); gross international reserves (USD millions) time series and months of imports shown in tables.

### Fiscal developments (figures and tables)
- Figures present fiscal outcomes 2015–23: Revenues (mineral and non-mineral), Expenditures (Wage Bill, Goods and Services, Subsidies and Transfers, Interest, Capital Expenditure), Primary balance, Non-mineral primary balance, Overall balance, Public Debt (External/Domestic).
- Table 1 (selected central values and projections presented in source):
  - Real GDP (series across years as presented): 1.2-16.0-2.4 2.4 2.1 2.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
  - Nominal GDP (series as presented): 6.4 22.0 56.9 47.3 54.6 54.6 21.4 21.4 16.7 16.7 12.1 10.6 8.1 8.2
  - Overall balance (net lending/borrowing): -20.2 -12.0 -5.7 -2.7 -1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.9 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0
  - Primary balance: -17.3 -8.3 -0.5 1.0 1.3 1.3 2.7 2.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
  - Non-resource primary balance: -23.5 -14.8 -12.7 -13.2 -9.3 -9.9 -6.7 -7.4 -6.3 -6.6 -6.6 -6.6 -6.6 -6.6
  - Central government debt (percent of GDP): 84.0 146.4 115.8 118.5 91.8 92.9 87.9 87.9 82.2 82.0 77.7 73.1 69.4 64.7
  - Domestic / External split (percent of GDP) shown in table: Domestic 30.9 53.6 40.4 30.7 20.3 21.3 17.2 17.2 12.9 13.6 12.1 12.8 14.1 15.6; External 53.2 92.8 75.4 87.8 71.5 71.6 70.7 70.2 69.3 68.4 65.5 60.3 55.3 49.1
  - Gross international reserves (USD millions): 648 585 992 1,195 1,346 1,346 1,554 1,355 1,580 1,390 1,461 1,503 1,499 1,432
  - Usable gross international reserves (USD millions): 505 129 512 865 1,112 1,112 1,320 1,121 1,345 1,156 1,227 1,268 1,265 1,198
  - Usable reserves (in months of imports): 3.3 0.8 2.6 4.7 5.9 6.0 6.8 5.8 6.6 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.1

### External sector and balance-of-payments (figures and tables)
- Table 5 (selected figures, in millions of USD unless otherwise indicated):
  - Current account (series as presented): -448 260 176 768 914 792 131 85 113 111 109 110
  - Exports of goods and services series: 2,287 2,447 2,300 2,600 2,686 2,534 2,742 2,714 2,760 2,734 2,763 2,855 2,930 3,031
  - Imports of goods and services series: 2,413 1,845 1,876 2,342 2,251 2,218 2,339 2,339 2,439 2,438 2,483 2,584 2,692 2,816
  - Trade balance, goods (USD millions): 532 1,061 865 755 895 775 829 803 742 717 687 672 629 577
  - Of which: gold, petroleum exports (USD millions): 1,903 2,114 1,996 2,218 2,282 2,089 2,263 2,236 2,234 2,208 2,203 2,221 2,243 2,267
  - Financial account, net (selected items): FDI 80 124 -369 653 956 724 386 154 6; Other investment and other components shown in table.
  - Overall balance and change in reserves are presented in the tables (series across years).

- Table 6 presents balance-of-payments items as percent of GDP (current account, exports, imports, financial account components, reserve adequacy metrics).

### Monetary developments (figure highlights)
- SRD monetary aggregates and central bank operations:
  - Currency in circulation and SRD required/excess reserves plotted in billions of SRD.
  - OMO auctions (7-day, 30-day, 90-day) allocated amounts, over/under subscription, and weighted average allotted rates shown in millions of SRD and percent.
  - CBC Auctions and Retail Issuances show tenors 90d and 180d with average interest rate (RHS).
  - OMO/CBC stock weighted average interest and tenor (percent, number of days) charted.

### Central government operations (selected figures from Tables 3–4)
- Table 3 (millions of SRD, selected series):
  - Revenues (series): 6,434 7,066 16,010 24,021 34,431 34,480 41,602 43,184 49,275 49,948 56,005 61,933 66,962 72,453
  - Taxes (series): 4,717 5,133 11,831 16,649 22,159 21,976 27,552 28,171 33,345 32,894 36,779 40,270 44,077 48,424
  - Non-tax revenues (series): 1,718 1,934 4,039 7,285 11,910 12,129 13,607 14,570 15,930 17,055 19,226 21,663 22,886 24,029
  - Expenditures (series): 12,852 11,695 19,465 26,427 36,549 36,578 43,293 44,754 49,699 50,018 56,340 62,659 67,456 72,479
  - Primary expenditures (series): 11,939 10,283 16,339 23,099 32,626 32,650 36,989 38,571 42,416 43,090 48,315 53,429 57,768 62,505
  - Interest (series): 913 1,411 3,126 3,329 3,923 3,928 6,304 6,183 7,283 6,928 8,025 9,230 9,688 9,975
  - Overall balance (net lending/borrowing, millions of SRD): -6,418 -4,629 -3,455 -2,406 -2,118 -2,098 -1,691 -1,570 -424 -70 -335 -726 -493 -26
  - Net incurrence of liabilities (series): 4,446 7,640 3,058 5,334 7,050 6,863 1,691 2,570 424 708 128 1 -649 -1,928
  - Net domestic financing and net external financing series are presented in the table.

- Table 4 (same items expressed as percent of GDP) includes:
  - Revenues: 20.3 18.2 26.4 26.8 24.9 24.9 24.8 25.7 25.1 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5
  - Expenditures: 40.5 30.2 32.1 29.5 26.4 26.4 25.8 26.7 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.8 25.7 25.5
  - Overall balance (net lending/borrowing): -20.2 -12.0 -5.7 -2.7 -1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.9 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0
  - Non-resource primary balance (percent of GDP): -23.5 -14.8 -12.7 -13.2 -9.3 -9.9 -6.7 -7.4 -6.3 -6.6 -6.6 -6.6 -6.6 -6.6
  - Public central government debt (percent of GDP): 84.0 146.4 115.8 118.5 91.8 92.9 87.9 87.9 82.2 82.0 77.7 73.1 69.4 64.7

### Key projections and medium-term outlook (select series)
- Real GDP growth profile (as presented across years): 2.4 2.1 2.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 (series provided in Tables 1 and 2).
- Inflation (CPI, period average and end of period series provided): CPI (period average series in Table 1) 4.4 34.9 59.1 52.4 1.6 1.6 20.7 20.7 14.8 14.8 9.7 7.6 5.0 5.0 (as presented); CPI (end of period series) 4.2 60.7 60.7 54.6 3.2 3.2 6.2 14.2 14.2 11.0 11.0 8.0 6.6 5.0 (as presented).
- Exchange rates (official and weighted average) series shown in tables; note: official and parallel market exchange rates converged in June 2021.

### Policy implications and corrective actions (from staff assessment)
- Staff supports the authorities’ modification of performance criteria and waivers, given:
  - Commitments by the Surinamese authorities and significant policy efforts made to date.
  - Corrective actions already taken and those to be implemented, which staff judges would not impede successful program implementation.

*Source: IMF staff report excerpts, tables and figures as provided in the content unit.*

### 1. Gross external financing requirements 557-119822392012528744418415768135121132

### 1. Gross external financing requirements

### A. Gross external financing requirements (levels)
- 1. Gross external financing requirements (levels): 557-119822392012528744418415768135121132
- A. Current account deficit: 448-260-176-76-89-147-92-131-85-113-111-109-109-110
- B. Public sector debt amortization: 122146259308166166212208119141144245240271
  - (i) Central government: 974615920266661121089411694220239269
  - (ii) CBvS: 00000000000012
  - (iii) SOEs: 251001001071001001001002525502500
- C. Other outflows: -13-5-171245167366150129350-10-30

### B. Sources of financing (levels)
- 2. Sources of financing: 611-48197-77-65-19869-11112168125199172158
- A. Asset sales (net) (Other investment account): 244-168433606100000000
- B. Foreign direct investment (net): -80-1243-69-65-39-56-7-24-38-6-15-46
- C. Portfolio flows (net): 1173547-190-4600000000
  - (i) Central government: 1250000000000012
  - (ii) SOEs: 051000000000000
  - (iii) Other: -9-1647-190-46000000-1-2
- D. Public sector debt financing: 201985579114114108108103104113180186201
  - (i) Central government: 201985579114114108108103104113180186201
  - (ii) SOEs: 00000000000000
- E. Other inflows (net): 57-14176-176-111-2630-16325-11502512

### C. Balance (2-1) excluding expected accumulation of gross reserves; Gap (-) Surplus (+)
- Balance (2-1) excluding expected accumulation of gross reserves; Gap (-) Surplus (+): 5471115-315-267-223-217-555-63-8957645126

### D. Expected change in gross reserves of the CBvS; accumulation (-)
- 3. Expected change in gross reserves of the CBvS; accumulation (-): 25493-271-68-152-118-208-9-25-35-69-41466

### E. Errors and omissions
- 4. Errors and omissions: -289-123-81-390-7800000000

### F. Financing needs and allocation (levels)
- 5. Financing needs -(2-1+3+4): -20-402374234184184265638812412-22-55-92
- Allocation by:
  - (i) Official financing: -20-4034254308308426401888812-22-55-92
    - a. IMF: -20-4034541581582512516363-13-22-55-92
      - Purchases: 00555415815825125163630000
      - O/w: for budget support: 00565310310310310326260000
      - Repurchases: 204021000000013225592
    - b. IFIs: 000200150150175150252525000
  - (ii) External arrears (net): 203168-1-100000000
  - (iii) Financing from external debt restructuring 1/1: 111110163036

### G. Key ratios and percent-of-GDP series (selected)
- 1. Gross external financing requirements (percent of GDP): 13.9-4.12.76.65.40.76.610.24.03.41.42.72.32.4
- A. Current account deficit (percent of GDP): 11.2-8.9-5.7-2.1-2.4-3.9-2.1-3.0-1.8-2.5-2.3-2.2-2.1-2.0
- B. Public sector debt amortization (percent of GDP): 3.05.08.48.54.44.44.94.82.63.13.04.84.54.9
  - (i) Central government: 2.41.65.25.61.81.82.62.52.02.52.04.34.54.8
  - (ii) CBvS: 0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
  - (iii) SOEs: 0.63.43.22.92.72.72.32.30.50.51.00.50.00.0
- C. Other outflows (percent of GDP): -0.3-0.20.00.23.30.13.98.53.32.80.70.0-0.2-0.5
- 2. Sources of financing (percent of GDP): 15.2-1.66.4-2.1-1.7-5.31.6-2.62.61.52.63.93.32.8
  - A. Asset sales (net) (percent of GDP): 6.1-5.81.41.00.01.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
  - B. Foreign direct investment (net, percent of GDP): -0.20.0-4.00.1-1.8-1.7-0.9-1.3-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.1-0.3-0.8
  - C. Portfolio flows (net, percent of GDP): 2.91.21.5-0.50.0-1.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
  - D. Public sector debt financing (percent of GDP): 5.03.41.82.23.03.02.52.52.22.32.43.63.53.6
  - E. Other inflows (net, percent of GDP): 1.4-0.55.7-4.8-3.0-7.00.0-3.80.5-0.21.00.50.00.0
- Balance (2-1) excluding expected accumulation of gross reserves; Gap (-) Surplus (+) (percent of GDP): 1.32.43.7-8.7-7.1-5.9-5.0-12.8-1.4-1.91.21.31.00.5
- 3. Expected change in gross reserves of the CBvS; accumulation (-) (percent of GDP): 6.33.2-8.8-1.9-4.0-3.1-4.8-0.2-0.5-0.8-1.4-0.80.11.2
- 4. Errors and omissions (percent of GDP): -7.2-4.2-2.6-1.10.0-2.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
- 5. Financing needs -(2-1+3+4) (percent of GDP): -0.5-1.47.711.611.111.19.813.01.92.70.2-0.4-1.0-1.7
  - Allocation by:
    - (i) Official financing (percent of GDP): -0.5-1.41.17.08.28.29.89.21.91.90.2-0.4-1.0-1.7
      - a. IMF (percent of GDP): -0.5-1.41.11.54.24.25.85.81.41.4-0.3-0.4-1.0-1.7
        - Purchases (percent of GDP): 0.00.01.81.54.24.25.85.81.41.40.00.00.00.0
        - O/w: for budget support (percent of GDP): 0.00.01.81.52.72.72.42.40.60.60.00.00.00.0
        - Repurchases (percent of GDP): 0.51.40.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.30.41.01.7
      - b. IFIs (percent of GDP): 0.00.00.05.54.04.04.03.50.50.50.50.00.00.0
    - (ii) External arrears (net) (percent of GDP): 6.64.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
    - (iii) Financing from external debt restructuring (percent of GDP) 1/: 3.03.00.03.80.00.80.00.00.00.0

_Source: Fund staff estimates and projections._

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### Monetary and depositary statistics (selected levels and projections)
- Monetary survey - Net foreign assets: 6,3658,4305,86711,67423,82747,47370,05769,44977,09172,48189,10179,191
  - Net international reserves (Held by the CBvS): 2,5153,6854,3457,90520,72736,87646,90346,29651,63645,13558,00047,820
  - Net other foreign assets: 3,8504,7451,5223,7693,10010,59623,15423,15425,45527,34631,10131,371
- Net domestic assets: 10,6699,97613,43020,11922,35819,54410,04610,6549,51111,40112,11514,487
- Net claims on the public sector: 3,7263,4624,78711,31010,6824,684-4,661-4,661-5,976-5,060-3,454-3,237
  - Of which: on central government: 3,9123,6125,05511,36010,5015,301-3,973-3,973-5,241-4,292-2,619-2,391
- Credit to the private sector: 7,6187,2787,3109,29911,01918,25521,03421,64124,86525,91728,00430,466
- Broad money: 17,03018,40319,26931,79346,18567,01680,10380,10386,60283,882101,21693,678
  - Currency in circulation: 1,2881,5041,9733,4984,3975,5786,6546,6547,1136,5477,9667,595
  - Local currency deposits: 4,7835,7316,8428,47310,62313,32116,67616,67618,28616,83421,01919,531
  - Foreign currency deposits: 10,95911,16810,45419,82331,16548,11756,77456,77461,20360,50172,23166,551

### Central Bank (CBvS) selected items (levels and USD conversions)
- Net foreign assets (CBvS): 5121,9922,3944,03911,26628,02036,71936,11140,63833,83145,48935,342
  - (In USD millions): 692693242885398829999951,0368371,023795
- Net international reserves (CBvS): 2,5153,6854,3457,90520,72736,87646,90346,29651,63645,13558,00047,820
  - (In USD millions): 3404985875649921,1611,2771,2761,3171,1171,3051,076
- Gross International Reserves: 3,1404,2964,7908,19920,73037,93449,46048,85260,95954,78570,22460,088
  - (In USD millions): 4245816485859921,1941,3461,3461,5541,3561,5801,352
- Liabilities (CBvS): -625-611-445-294-3-1,058-2,557-2,557-9,324-9,649-12,224-12,268
  - (In USD millions): -84-82-60-210-33-70-70-238-239-275-276
- Net other foreign assets (CBvS): -398-1,694-1,951-3,866-9,461-8,856-10,184-10,184-10,997-11,304-12,511-12,478

### Reserve money and instruments (levels)
- Reserve money: 3,6744,9759,59312,81718,96727,47028,81628,81631,34831,06135,57535,115
  - Currency in circulation (component): 1,5501,7572,2633,8614,7926,0847,2157,2157,7147,1008,6398,237
  - Bankers deposits: 2,0073,1097,2118,86914,05421,22921,33121,33123,37123,67126,64826,565

### Memorandum and velocity indicators (selected)
- Velocity (GDP/broad money; end of period): 1.61.61.61.21.31.31.71.71.92.01.92.1
- Broad money (Percent of GDP): 63.361.760.782.176.074.957.957.951.650.051.647.8
- Credit to the private sector (Percent of GDP): 28.324.423.024.018.120.415.215.614.815.414.315.5

_Source: Central Bank of Suriname; and IMF staff calculations and projections._

---

### Financial soundness indicators (selected, in percent)
- Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets: 9.611.411.814.516.818.418.718.920.321.6
- Regulatory Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets: 9.010.810.513.115.517.316.716.918.419.9
- Tier 1 capital to total assets (leverage ratio): 4.94.94.35.76.17.47.17.27.78.3
- NPL to gross loans: 12.010.614.612.812.416.114.314.013.010.4
- Provisions to total NPLs: 61.660.546.0...39.935.7
- Return on assets (ROA, annualized): 0.11.02.01.82.71.22.02.22.70.7
- Return on equity (ROE, annualized): 1.916.734.829.644.816.027.429.936.59.3
- Liquid assets to total assets: 40.246.851.558.854.352.353.753.253.654.2
- Net open positions in foreign currency to capital 1/: 22.211.520.839.423.221.016.821.720.617.7
- Foreign currency liabilities to total liabilities: 66.560.969.271.674.175.075.374.673.371.8

_Source: Central Bank of Suriname; *IMF staff calculations where indicated.* 1/ The increase in net asset position in 2020 and 2021 includes a valuation effect attributable to significant depreciation._

---

### Program monitoring and Fund credit (selected projections and indicators)
- Table 10: Schedule of Reviews and Available Purchases (percent of quota and availability):
  - Board Approval of the Extended Arrangement: 12/22/2021 — 39.430.6
  - First review: 3/15/2022 — 39.430.6
  - Second review: 6/14/2023 — 39.430.6
  - Fifth review: 3/14/2024 — 46.736.3
  - Ninth and final review: 3/14/2025 — 46.836.3
  - Total: 430.7334.1
  - Memo: Quota: 128.9
- Table 11: Indicators of Fund Credit Under the EFF (In millions of SDR)
  - Prospective Drawings (2022–2034): 39.4118.2186.946.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
  - Percent of quota (prospective drawings): 30.691.7145.036.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
  - Repurchases (2022–2034): 0.00.00.00.09.816.440.667.971.871.861.955.431.2
  - Total Interest / Charges (2022–2034): 2.08.518.128.830.029.128.225.219.614.811.38.25.6
  - Outstanding Credit (eop) (2022–2034): 78.8197.0383.9430.7420.9404.4363.8295.9224.2152.490.435.13.9
  - Gross International Reserves (US$ million, 2022–2034): 1,1951,3461,3561,3521,4231,4641,4611,3941,3451,2041,088989964
  - Gross International Usable Reserves (US$ million, 2022–2034): 8651,1121,1211,1171,1881,2301,2271,1601,111970854755730
  - Nominal GDP (SRD million, 2022–2034): 89,472138,344167,930195,958219,719242,976262,706284,248307,355332,324359,415388,666420,321

_Source: IMF staff calculations and projections._

---

### Quantitative Performance Criteria and Indicative Targets under the EFF (selected)
- Fiscal/debt targets and monetary targets (selected entries, in millions of SRD or USD where indicated):
  - Primary fiscal balance (cash basis) of central government (floor) — sample entries: 2/-2,321-7193343,007Met110159135Not Met221-11014Met331-3161Met
  - Gross credit to the central government by the central bank (continuous ceiling) — sample entry: 3/10,22900Met00Met00Met00Met
  - Net international reserves of the central bank (floor) (millions of U.S. dollar) — sample entries: 2/4/-154348310319Met11-25Met103216Met1143019Not Met
  - Net domestic assets of the central bank (ceiling) — sample entries: 2/4/8,777-343161203Not Met-6180-6Met-1,134272113Met-1,13739-118Met
  - Memorandum items: Reserve money and components — Reserve money: 12,81718,29418,96718,62918,95019,06119,18019,59718,881; Reserve money (local currency portion only): 7,3429,1889,2719,3419,3389,4949,5709,6479,289
  - Program exchange rate: 14.018 (repeated entries)

Note: Quantitative Performance Criteria and Indicative Targets are reported across multiple reporting dates with met/not met designations and adjustments; selected numeric entries preserved exactly as presented.

_Source: IMF staff calculations and projections._

*Source: 1surea2024003-print-pdf - 1. Gross external financing requirements (IMF).*

### 1. Social spending of central government (floor) 2/1,1121,315Met

### 1. Social spending of central government (floor) 2/1,1121,315Met

### Quantitative fiscal targets and indicative outcomes
- Primary fiscal balance (cash basis) of central government (floor):
  - 1,1051,788657 Not Met
  - 1,2152,1111,174 Not Met
  - 1,3262,6251,150 Not Met
  - 1471,5712,013 Met
  - 1,3381,6932,181 Met
  - 1,5291,8261,856 Met
  - 1,7211,7901,773 Not Met
  - 1,9121,5502,088 Met
  - 2,1031,3062,133 Met
  - 2,2946372,029 Met
  - 384661-123 Not Met
  - 7691,618306 Not Met
  - 1,1531,75528 Not Met
  - 1,538TBDTBD
  - 1,9222,3076921,3461,9994,7052,6533,3063,9604,6134,613 (listed as PCProp PCITITPCProp PC in final section)

- Social spending of central government (floor) — Indicative targets and assessments:
  - 2/1,4831,717 Met
  - 1,9811,058 Not Met
  - 2,9711,915 Not Met
  - 3,9623,077 Not Met
  - 1,3081,3081,086 Not Met
  - 1,3081,086 Not Met (repeated across pages)
  - 2,6172,6173,7853,7855,1225,122 (final listed indicative targets)

- Stock of VAT refunds outstanding (ceiling) — Indicative targets (values listed but often not paired with Met/Not met in excerpt):
  - 909909748 Met
  - Other rows labeled "Stock of VAT refunds outstanding (ceiling)" appear across periods without explicit adjustments in the excerpt.

### Other fiscal and debt-related continuous ceilings
- New natural resource revenue-collateralized debt contracted by or on behalf of the central government and/or SOEs (continuous ceiling) (U.S. dollars):
  - 00 Met entries across multiple reporting dates
  - 0TBDTBD in later reporting rows

- New central government guaranteed debt (continuous ceiling):
  - 00 Met across multiple reporting dates
  - 0TBDTBD in later reporting rows

- Non-accumulation of central government external debt arrears (continuous ceiling) (millions of U.S. dollars):
  - 00 Met across many dates
  - 00.02 Not Met (one occurrence)
  - 04 Not Met (one occurrence)
  - 0TBDTBD in later reporting rows

### Monetary targets and central bank operations
- Gross credit to the central government by the central bank (continuous ceiling):
  - 00 Met across many dates
  - Instances showing negative values with "Met": 00 -1,042.3 Met; 00 -1,042 Met; 00 -1,661.8 Met
  - Final reporting shows 0000000000 for multiple periods

- Net international reserves of the central bank (floor) (millions of U.S. dollar):
  - 194169204 Met
  - 196150179 Met
  - 226313332 Met
  - 2/-57-38-3 1 Met
  - -55-32-26 Met
  - -54-28-28 Met
  - -53-39-21 Met
  - -57-395 Met
  - -73-61-7 Met
  - -622152 Met
  - -7-10-14 Not Met
  - -25-1-2 Not Met
  - -65-19-22 Not Met
  - -29-11-29 Not Met
  - 2/-14-62-96-122-160-21-171-196-232-43-258 (final series across months)

- Net domestic assets of the central bank (ceiling):
  - 2/-1,193-845-111 Not Met
  - -1,063-425435 Not Met
  - -1,332-2,548-1,080 Not Met
  - 2/3,6023,3342,376 Met
  - 4,0063,6833,843 Not Met
  - 4,3974,0302,776 Met
  - 2/3,8923,7032,448 Met
  - 4,2143,9672,995 Met
  - 4,7224,5543,743 Met
  - 4,1213,7331,986 Met
  - 2/454494378 Met
  - 1,041702855 Not Met
  - 1,4237731,346 Not Met
  - 1,0668041,209 Not Met
  - 2/9801,8542,2772,7813,4371,7113,7074,1784,7142,2325,183 (final series)

- Direct purchases/sales of FX by the central bank and/or central government from/to SOEs and private sector (millions USD) (continuous ceiling):
  - 00 Met across many reporting dates
  - 000 Met and 000000000 entries in later rows

- Central government mineral revenue in local currency (ceiling) (millions of U.S. dollar) 2/:
  - 57 Not Met
  - 1011 Not Met
  - 1514 Met
  - 2015 Met
  - 2518 Met
  - 3020 Met
  - 303023 Met
  - 30 30 25 Met
  - 30 30 27 Met
  - 30 30 TBD TBD (final entries)

### Memorandum items (reserve money, NFA, reserves, exchange rate)
- Reserve money (series across reported dates):
  - 22,91221,41323,44422,65423,85823,723
  - 24,27725,20524,66026,51425,04727,470
  - 33,96427,59035,10229,37836,14727,225
  - 29,44026,72030,04927,66030,67028,64731,37428,816
  - 28,86629,07429,30029,22629,69928,81029,52628,238
  - 28,86629,07429,30029,22629,69928,81029,52628,238 (repeated)
  - 29,44026,72030,04927,66030,67028,64731,37428,816 (additional occurrences)
  - 28,86629,07429,30029,22629,69928,81029,52628,238 (final memos)

- Reserve money (local currency portion only):
  - 10,26011,09810,41311,35910,56611,450
  - 10,71811,50710,87111,63211,02412,263
  - 14,24914,06414,64215,60214,99814,438
  - 15,32014,20815,57315,11115,83115,62116,16216,566
  - 15,97816,84116,29817,41616,58217,62717,20217,389

- Reserve money (constant exchange rates):
  - 16,76517,58716,91818,08417,07118,424
  - 17,22418,58317,37718,71017,52919,414
  - 21,46119,44821,89620,91422,29419,457
  - 20,58919,16720,85720,00021,13020,70821,47721,523
  - 20,76121,63921,08521,81721,37322,44222,11022,160

- NFA (constant exchange rates):
  - 8,7788,6988,8119,1829,2539,458
  - 9,2899,7149,3169,2969,47811,514
  - 9,9599,1729,9909,1709,9978,781
  - 8,7978,8198,7429,2128,5079,2239,45511,264
  - 9,11211,1018,84911,2708,68210,82610,65610,773

- Gross international reserves (millions of U.S. dollar):
  - 1,0979911,0991,0181,1871,029
  - 1,1901,0451,1921,0311,2601,194
  - 1,1531,0911,1551,0961,1561,062
  - 1,1321,1071,1281,1411,1121,1421,2341,346
  - 1,1881,3281,1691,3341,2251,3651,3651,364

- Usable international reserves (millions of U.S. dollar) 5/:
  - 5/771667773698862713
  - 5/864716866707934865
  - 5/835853837857838825
  - 5/8938738899088739089951,112
  - 5/9551,0939361,1009911,1311,1311,130

- Program exchange rate (series):
  - 14.01814.01814.01814.01814.01814.018 (repeated across pages)

*Source: Table 12. Suriname: Quantitative Performance Criteria and Indicative Targets Under the EFF (excerpt provided).*

### 2. Stock of VAT refunds outstanding (ceiling)722722443443163164

### 2. Stock of VAT refunds outstanding (ceiling)

### Memorandum items — liquidity and external reserves
- Reserve money: 28,004 30,067 30,127 30,312 30,490 30,824 30,660 30,821 30,909 31,348 31,061
- Reserve money (local currency portion only): 17,570 17,524 17,749 17,912 18,067 17,950 18,215 18,356 18,423 18,142 18,556
- Reserve money (constant exchange rates): 22,312 22,439 22,463 22,596 22,724 22,878 22,844 22,957 22,996 23,082 23,101
- NFA (constant exchange rates): 11,073 10,197 9,926 9,557 9,028 10,779 8,877 8,520 8,023 10,462 7,659
- Gross international reserves (millions of U.S. dollar): 1,396 1,400 1,382 1,356 1,318 1,509 1,375 1,349 1,314 1,554 1,356
- Usable international reserves (millions of U.S. dollar): 5/1,162 1,166 1,148 1,121 1,084 1,275 1,140 1,115 1,080 1,320 1,121
- Program exchange rate: 14.018 14.018 14.018 14.018 14.018 14.018 14.018 14.018 14.018 14.018 14.018
- Notes: 1/ Targets as defined in the Technical Memorandum of Understanding. 2/ Cumulative flows from begining of the year. 3/ The 2020 figure is a stock as of end-June 2021. 4/ The 2020 figure is a stock as of end-December 2020. 5/ Official reserve assets excluding the PBOC swap and ring-fenced reserves. 6/ Non-observance for the month February 2023. 7/ Table adjusted to incorporate cumulative flows from 2023.

### Structural benchmarks under the EFF — exchange rate, monetary, safeguards, and financial sector
- Key exchange rate/monetary/safeguards benchmarks (target date — status — objective):
  - Establish competitive FX auctions for the CBvS… December 2021 — Met — Ensure the CBvS has a mechanism to intervene in the FX market.
  - Establish an electronic trading platform for inter-bank/cambio FX trading. June 2022 — Not met — Create a consolidated FX market.
  - Publish FY 2020-2021 audited IFRS financial statements on CBvS external website. June 2022 — Not met — Strengthen accountability and transparency, and reduce risk of misreporting.
  - Develop time-bound recapitalization plan for CBvS agreed with government. September 2022 — Not met — Protect the CBvS’s financial autonomy.
  - Publish FY 2016 - 2018 audited financial statements on CBvS external website. December 2021 — Not met; implemented with a delay in February 2022 — Strengthen accountability and transparency, and reduce risk of misreporting.
  - National Assembly to pass amendments to strengthen CBvS mandate/autonomy (and related items). January 2022 — Not met; implemented with a delay in April 2023 — Strengthen CBvS’s mandate, autonomy, governance, and accountability and transparency.
  - Additional benchmarks with target dates through 17September 2024 include establishing expanded electronic FX trading, publishing FY 2020-2021 and FY 2022 audited IFRS statements, recapitalization plan (17April 2024 — Not met), and submitting Foreign Exchange Regulation 1947 amendment (14December 2023 — Not met; implemented with delay in May 2024).

- Financial sector/crisis preparedness benchmarks and status highlights:
  - Undertake full asset quality review (AQR) for two largest banks. September 2022 — Met — Diagnose the largest banks and potential recapitalization needs.
  - Submit Credit Institutions Resolution Act to State Council. January 2022 — Not met; implemented with delay in February 2023 — Strengthen CBvS's role in crisis management.
  - Submit revised Banking and Credit Supervision Act to State Council. January 2022 — Not met; implemented with delay in February 2023 — Solidify oversight.
  - Operationalize Financial Stability Committee. January 2022 — Not met; implemented with a delay in April 2022 — Improve coordination.
  - Operationalize a Bank Resolution Unit within CBvS. February 2022 — Not met; implemented with a delay in April 2022 — Strengthen crisis management.
  - Undertake full AQR for remaining banks. December 2022 — Not met; implemented with a delay in May 2023.
  - CBvS and MoF governance framework for state-owned banks. 16December 2023 — Not met; implemented with delay in February — Improve governance.
  - CBvS to set CET1 and CAR targets in consultation with IMF. 16March 2024 — Not met; implemented with delay in April 2024 — Improve strength of financial sector.

### Fiscal and debt structural benchmarks — implementation and objectives
- Governance, transparency and fiscal management benchmarks (selected):
  - Publish time-bound plan to implement TSA recommendations. January 2022 — Met — Improve governance and increase transparency.
  - Develop TORs for hiring specialists to audit outstanding supplier arrears. January 2022 — Met.
  - Publish financial assessment of EBS including legacy liabilities. May 2022 — Met.
  - Commence audit on outstanding supplier arrears. April 2022 — Met: audit completed in May 2023.
  - Passage of laws needed to implement the VAT by National Assembly. March 2022 — Not Met; implemented with a delay in August 2022 — Ensure fiscal adjustment in line with program parameters.
  - Publish plan to scale back tax exemptions to raise additional revenue of 0.4 percent of GDP. March 2022 — Not Met; Implemented in February 2023 budget.
  - Expand legal mandate of debt management office (SDMO) to include whole nonfinancial public sector. June 2022 — Not Met; implemented with delay in March 2023.
  - Create a large taxpayer unit. June 2022 — Not Met; implemented with a delay in July 2022.
  - Enact amended VAT Act converting zero-rated products to exempt and impose 10 percent VAT covering at least 60 percent of household consumption. July 2023 — Not Met; implemented with a delay in September 2023.
  - Publish quarterly updates on EBS tariff rationale and subsidy size. October 2023 — Met.
  - Operationalize amended Personnel Act via state decree to halt payments of salaries for unregistered workers. October 2023 — Not Met; implemented with delay in November 2023.
  - Issue State Decree to provide Minister of Finance authority to access all government bank accounts. 10March 2024 — Not Met; implemented with delay in April 2024.
  - Publish quarterly budget execution report starting with end June 2023 outturns. 10Continuous — Met.
  - MoFP, SDMO, and CBvS to sign MoU on external debt payments. January 2024 — Met.
  - Publish monthly social transfers coverage and values on Ministry website. 8January 2024 — Met.
  - Mandate all tax declarations and transactions use a Fiscal Identification Number. 8June 2024 — Proposed to be reformulated.
  - Mandate all importers/exporters use a Fiscal Identification Number. 8June 2024 — New proposed SB.
  - Implement a pilot TSA for a limited set of ministries. 10January 2025 — Strengthen PFM.
  - Budget Department to set commitment ceilings quarterly and enforce them, including through FreeBalance. 11Continuous — Not Met.
  - Fully repay domestic debt arrears. 11March 2024 — Not Met; implemented with delay in May 2024.
  - Issue resolution clarifying government non-responsibility for unauthorized contracts. 11April 2024 — Met.
  - Mandate all line ministries to report stock of arrears to the MoF. 11June 2024 — Met.

### Governance, procurement, and AML/CFT benchmarks
- Governance (anti-corruption):
  - Ratify UNCAC. January 2022 — Met.
  - Issue Implementation Act to amend Anti-Corruption legal framework. June 2022 — Not Met.
  - Operationalize Anti-Corruption Commission. March 2022 — Not Met; implemented with a delay in May 2023.
  - Amend Anti-Corruption legal framework to criminalize acts of corruption. 19June 2024 — (status listed as target).
  - Amend Anti-Corruption framework to require income and asset declarations of PEPs and associated measures. 19September 2024 — (target).
- Governance (procurement):
  - Enact new procurement law to centralize and mandate publication of all public procurement tenders and awards, including beneficial ownership. 19September 2023 — Not Met.
- Governance (AML/CFT):
  - Amend AML/CFT law legislation to align with FATF standards. August 2022 — Not Met; implemented with a delay in November 2022.

### Decomposition of public debt and debt service by creditor (2023–26) — key figures
- Total debt (Debt Stock excl. arrears, end-2023): 3,497 (In USD) — 100 (Percent Total debt)
- External debt: 2,694 (In USD) — 77 (Percent Total debt) — 22,503 (Percent GDP) [table headings imply multiple columns; values listed as in source]
- Multilateral creditors: 1,319 (In USD) — 38 (Percent Total debt) — 4,71,3190117136143333 (as printed; preserved exactly)
- IMF: 265 89 2650 142331001
- World Bank: 191 1190122000
- IADB: 84724308470778785222
- Other multilateral and official creditors, bilateral creditors, China, India, ECA-backed loans, private creditors, Eurobonds, domestic holdings, and holdings by Central Bank/local banks/local non-banks: entries preserved as presented in the source table (including composite/concatenated numeric strings where present).

- Source note on assumptions:
  - For external debts whose bilateral restructuring agreements were not completed by end-2023, reported debt stocks and debt services are based on original contracts. For external debt whose bilateral restructuring agreements were completed by end-2023, reported debt stocks and debt services are based on these agreements; arrear repayments are included in projected debt services.
  - For domestic debts, the restructuring with CBvS is reflected to calculate domestic debt service.
  - Figures are based on existing debts as of end-2023; debt service from newly contracted debt in 2024 onward are not reflected.

### Debt Sustainability Analysis — summary assessment and risks
- Overall risk of sovereign stress: High
- Near term: 1/n.a.n.a.
- Medium term: High High
- Long term: Moderate
- Key observations:
  - The projected debt path is expected to stabilize and GFNs will remain at manageable levels.
  - The overall risk of sovereign stress is high.
  - Long-term public debt to GDP is expected to continue declining but GFN to GDP is gradually increasing until 2033, mainly due to repayments to IFIs including the Fund and restructured debts.
  - Medium-term risks are assessed as high: the GFN tool suggests low risk due to declining GFN path and contained bank exposure to the government, but the fanchart tool gives a high risk signal mainly driven by the width of the chart suggesting a high historical volatility of the macro-fiscal shocks.
  - The authorities' debt restructuring scenario suggests public debt and GFNs would be sustainable. However, even after restructuring, public debt would remain high (above 80 percent of GDP) until end-2024 and highly vulnerable to macro-fiscal shocks, including recapitalization needs of the Central Bank of Suriname (CBvS).
  - FX vulnerability is highlighted by the high risk signal of the fanchart driven by past fluctuations in real exchange rate and inflation. This FX vulnerability can be mitigated by the significant share of government revenues received in foreign currency and potential future oil revenues that are not incorporated in the DSA.

*Source: Authorities and IMF staff calculations and projections; IMF staff.*

### Annex I. Figure 2. Suriname: Debt Coverage and Disclosures

### Annex I. Figure 2. Suriname: Debt Coverage and Disclosures

### Debt coverage in the DSA and subsectors included
- Chosen coverage in the DSA: 1/CGGGNF (notation as in source).
- 1a. If central government, are non-central government entities insignificant? No.
- Subsectors captured in the baseline (Inclusion):
  - Budgetary central government: Yes
  - Extra budgetary funds (EBFs): No
  - Social security funds (SSFs): No
  - State governments: No
  - Local governments: No
  - Public nonfinancial corporations: No
  - Central bank: No
  - Other public financial corporations: No
- Commentary:
  - Suriname's public debt under the DSA refers to central government debt including loans to IMF and CBvS.
  - There is no estimate of local governments' and social security funds' debts but they should be considered minimal if any.
  - There is no estimate of SOE debts, but the government has passed a law to expand the legal mandate of SDMO to include the whole NFPC and tracks the financial positions of the 10 largest state-owned enterprises.

### Instrument coverage, accounting, consolidation, and reporting (summary points as presented)
- Reporting on intra-government debt holdings: table indicates zero consolidation across listed holders (Budget. central govt, Extra-budget. funds, Social security funds, State govt., Local govt., Nonfin pub. corp., Central bank, Oth. pub. fin. corp) with totals shown as 0 / 0 / 0.
- Basis of recording: Non-cash basis 4/ and Cash basis indicated in reporting matrix (notations preserved from source).
- Valuation of debt stock: Nominal value 5/ and Face value 6/ noted; Market value 7/ marked "Not applicable" for surveyed rows.
- Notes (as in source):
  - 2/ Stock of arrears could be used as a proxy in the absence of accrual data on other accounts payable.
  - 3/ Insurance, Pension, and Standardized Guarantee Schemes, typically including government employee pension liabilities.
  - 4/ Includes accrual recording, commitment basis, due for payment, etc.
  - 5/ The nominal value at any moment in time is the amount the debtor owes to the creditor...
  - 6/ The face value of a debt instrument is the undiscounted amount of principal to be paid at (or before) maturity.
  - 7/ Market value of debt instruments is the value as if they were acquired in market transactions on the balance sheet reporting date.

### Public debt structure indicators (end-2023 and composition)
- Staff commentary headline figures:
  - Public debt: 92.9 percent of GDP as of end-2023.
  - FX debt: 79 percent of GDP.
  - External public debt: 72 percent of GDP.
  - Multilateral debt: 35 percent of GDP in 2023 (about 2/3 owed to Inter-American Development Bank (IADB)).
  - Other official debt:
    - Bilateral debt: 11 percent of GDP.
    - ECA-backed debt: 5 percent of GDP.
  - Official creditors by country share:
    - China: 13 percent of GDP.
    - Paris Club: 2 percent of GDP.
    - India: 1 percent of GDP.
  - Private debt composition:
    - Restructured eurobonds: 18 percent of GDP.
    - Other private creditors: 3 percent of GDP.
  - External arrears: 5 percent of GDP.
  - Domestic debt: 21 percent of GDP as of end-2023, of which:
    - Debt owed to CBvS: 7 percent of GDP.
    - Debt to commercial banks: 2 percent of GDP.
    - Debt to non-banking institutions: 4 percent of GDP.
  - Domestic arrears, including supplier arrears, as of end-2023: 8 percent of GDP.

### Baseline Scenario (Selected projections and key statistics; percent of GDP unless indicated)
- Public debt path (Actual/Projection):
  - 2023: 92.9
  - 2024: 87.4
  - 2025: 82.0
  - 2026: 77.7
  - 2027: 73.1
  - 2028: 69.4
  - 2029: 64.7
  - 2030: 60.5
  - 2031: 56.1
  - 2032: 52.1
  - 2033: 48.1
- Change in public debt (year-on-year, percent of GDP):
  - 2023: -25.7
  - 2024: -5.5
  - 2025: -5.4
  - 2026: -4.3
  - 2027: -4.6
  - 2028: -3.7
  - 2029: -4.7
  - 2030: -4.2
  - 2031: -4.4
  - 2032: -4.0
  - 2033: -4.0
- Contribution of identified flows (percent of GDP):
  - 2023: -30.3
  - 2024: 1.4
  - 2025: -5.0
  - 2026: -3.8
  - 2027: -3.4
  - 2028: -3.2
  - 2029: -3.3
  - 2030: -3.3
  - 2031: -3.3
  - 2032: -3.3
  - 2033: -3.2
- Primary deficit (percent of GDP):
  - 2023: -1.3
  - 2024–2033: -2.7 (2024), then -3.5 repeated 2025–2033 (as shown)
- Noninterest revenues (percent of GDP): 2023: 24.9; 2024–2033: 25.7 (2024) then 25.5 repeated 2025–2033.
- Noninterest expenditures (percent of GDP): 2023: 23.6; 2024: 23.0; 2025–2033: 22.0 repeated.
- Automatic debt dynamics (percent of GDP):
  - 2023: -28.7
  - 2024: -2.8
  - 2025: -1.8
  - 2026: -0.9
  - 2027: -0.4
  - 2028: -0.1
  - 2029–2033: values between -0.2 and -0.1 as shown.
- Real interest rate and relative inflation (percent):
  - 2023: -6.7
  - 2024: -0.1
  - 2025: 0.7
  - 2026: 1.5
  - 2027: 1.9
  - 2028: 2.0
  - 2029: 1.9
  - 2030: 1.7
  - 2031: 1.6
  - 2032: 1.5
  - 2033: 1.4
- Real interest rate (percent):
  - 2023: -36.5
  - 2024: -10.1
  - 2025: -6.2
  - 2026: -2.7
  - 2027: -1.4
  - 2028: 0.3
  - 2029–2033: 0.3–0.5 as shown.
- Relative inflation (percent):
  - 2023: 29.8
  - 2024: 10.0
  - 2025: 6.9
  - 2026: 4.2
  - 2027: 3.3
  - 2028: 1.7
  - 2029: 1.6
  - 2030: 1.4
  - 2031: 1.2
  - 2032: 1.1
  - 2033: 0.9
- Real growth rate (percent):
  - 2023: -2.5
  - 2024: -2.7
  - 2025: -2.5
  - 2026: -2.4
  - 2027: -2.3
  - 2028: -2.1
  - 2029: -2.0
  - 2030: -1.9
  - 2031: -1.8
  - 2032: -1.6
  - 2033: -1.5
- Other identified flows (percent of GDP):
  - 2023: -0.2
  - 2024: 6.9
  - 2025: 0.3
  - 2026–2033: 0.5 to 0.4 repeated as shown (e.g., 2026: 0.5; 2027: 0.5; 2028: 0.4; 2029–2033: 0.4).
- Notable specific items:
  - Other accounts payable, incl. supplier arrears: 2023: 3.5; projected 2024–2033: 0.0.
  - Deposit increase: 2023: 2.6; 2024: -1.2; 2025: -1.7; 2026–2033: 0.0.
  - CBvS restructuring: 2023: -1.1; 2024–2033: 0.0.
  - Nominal haircut by restructuring: 2023: -6.7; 2024–2033: 0.0.
  - Recap assumption: 2023: 0.0; 2024: 4.7; 2025: 1.2; 2026–2033: 0.5 (2026), then 0.5/0.4/0.4 etc. as tabulated.
  - IMF finance: BOP: 2023: 1.5; 2024: 3.4; 2025: 0.8; 2026–2033: 0.0.
- Contribution of residual (percent of GDP): 2023: 4.6; 2024: -6.9; 2025: -0.4; 2026: -0.5; 2027: -1.2; 2028: -0.5; 2029: -1.4; 2030: -0.9; 2031: -1.1; 2032: -0.7; 2033: -0.8.
- Gross financing needs (incl. arrear clearance) (percent of GDP):
  - 2023: 5.6
  - 2024: 6.2
  - 2025: 3.7
  - 2026: 3.2
  - 2027: 6.5
  - 2028: 7.5
  - 2029: 7.9
  - 2030: 7.5
  - 2031: 7.9
  - 2032: 7.9
  - 2033: 8.1
- Of which: debt service (percent of GDP):
  - 2023: 7.0
  - 2024: 8.8
  - 2025: 6.9
  - 2026: 6.6
  - 2027: 9.7
  - 2028: 10.5
  - 2029: 10.9
  - 2030: 10.3
  - 2031: 10.8
  - 2032: 10.8
  - 2033: 11.1
- Debt service by currency (percent of GDP):
  - Local currency: 2023: 1.5; 2024: 1.3; 2025: 0.5; 2026: 0.9; 2027: 1.5; 2028: 2.3; 2029: 2.3; 2030: 2.5; 2031: 2.9; 2032: 3.4; 2033: 3.8
  - Foreign currency: 2023: 5.5; 2024: 7.5; 2025: 6.4; 2026: 5.7; 2027: 8.2; 2028: 8.2; 2029: 8.6; 2030: 7.9; 2031: 7.9; 2032: 7.4; 2033: 7.2
- Memo (select macro variables):
  - Real GDP growth (percent): 2023: 2.1; 2024–2033: 3.0 repeated in projections shown.
  - Inflation (GDP deflator; percent): 2023: 51.4; 2024: 17.9; 2025: 13.3; 2026: 8.9; 2027: 7.4; 2028–2033: 5.0 repeated.
  - Nominal GDP growth (percent): 2023: 54.6; 2024: 21.4; 2025: 16.7; 2026: 12.1; 2027: 10.6; 2028: 8.1; 2029–2033: 8.2/8.1 as shown.
  - Effective interest rate (percent): 2023: 3.7; 2024: 4.7; 2025: 4.5; 2026: 5.1; 2027: 5.4; 2028–2033: 5.4–5.9 as shown.
- Staff commentary highlights:
  - Public debt projected to decline below 90 percent of GDP by 2024 and below 70 percent in 2028, below 50 percent by 2033.
  - Gross financing needs (GFNs) peak in 2024 due to clearance of domestic debt arrears; trough in 2026; gradually increase towards 8 percent of GDP in 2033 as amortization of restructured external debts and IMF loans commence after grace periods.
  - Recapitalization assumption (not realized) adds 4.7 percent of GDP to public debt in 2024 (4.3 percent for CBvS and 0.4 percent for commercial banks).
  - Nominal haircut by bondholders reduced public debt by 7 percent in 2023.
  - IMF's BOP finance component is added to the debt stock.
  - The GFN path is anchored by sustained primary surpluses; maintaining liquidity buffers (including government deposits) is essential.

### Realism of Baseline Assumptions (tools and diagnostics)
- Tools indicate a rapid reduction in public debt and improvement in primary balance contingent on:
  - Authorities' strong commitments to fiscal adjustment.
  - Ongoing debt restructuring.
  - Recovery from COVID-19.
- Interest-growth gap appears optimistic partly because about half of total financing is expected from IFIs without external market access until 2026.
- Long-term assumption: real exchange rate converges to an appreciation of 0.6 percent per year due to Balassa-Samuelson effects.
- Diagnostic signals and comparator distributions are presented (percentile-based color coding preserved in source figures).

### Medium-Term Risk Analysis (selected indicators and stress diagnostics)
- Key indicators (values as presented):
  - Fanchart width: 162.5 2.4 (notation as in source).
  - Probability of debt not stabilizing (pct): 10.00 0.1 (notation as in source).
  - Terminal debt level x institutions index: 58.5 1.3.
  - Debt fanchart index: ...3.7 (notation preserved).
  - Average GFN in baseline: 5.5 1.9.
  - Bank claims on government (pct bank assets): 4.4 1.4.
  - Change in claims on government in stress (pct bank assets): 7.7 2.6.
  - GFN financeability index: ...5.9.
- Medium-term risk analysis commentary:
  - Debt Fanchart Module points to high risk of debt distress mainly driven by the wide width of the fanchart (large historical fluctuations in real exchange rate and inflation).
  - Flexible exchange rate regime and program adjustments expected to mitigate some risks.
  - Risk from debt non-stabilization relatively contained due to steady decline in public debt and fiscal adjustment, though terminal debt level in 2029 remains above 60 percent of GDP.
  - GFN financeability module suggests low risk, supported by declining GFN path.
  - Domestic banking sector fragility could increase liquidity risks; recapitalization needs for CBvS could enlarge GFN.
  - Recapitalization modalities matter: direct equity injections increase immediate GFN significantly; use of securities could reduce immediate GFN and spread financing over time.
  - Mitigants: significant share of government revenues received in foreign currency and potential future oil revenues.
  - DSA does not incorporate potential oil production impacts due to current lack of assurance on economic viability of oil reserves.
  - Overall medium-term and overall risk considered high even under the restructuring scenario given vulnerability to macro-fiscal shocks and potentially higher GFN needs from recapitalization.
- Probabilities (detection metrics):
  - Prob. of missed crisis, 2024-2029 (if stress not predicted): 54.5 pct.
  - Prob. of false alarm, 2024-2029 (if stress predicted): 3.4 pct.

### Long-Term Risk and Analysis (summarized)
- Long-term module signals:
  - GFN-to-GDP and public debt-to-GDP diverge quickly if government follows past 10-year path.
  - Historical 10-year average scenario includes 2020–22 crisis shocks; less informative but underscores need for sufficient primary balance (PB) surplus to achieve declining GFN and public debt.
  - Staff projection aligns with "Baseline with t+5" and suggests GFN to GDP returns to just below 10 percent from 2029 to 2033 due to repayments to restructured external debts and IFIs including the Fund.
  - Emphasis on continuing fiscal reforms and keeping sufficient liquidity buffer in medium term.
  - Staff projection deviates from mechanical long-term module baseline because staff projection reflects below-the-line transactions (e.g., arrear clearances, debt restructuring).
- Demographics and health costs:
  - Health cost based on demographic changes could add risks in the long term but not material given continued declining paths under current fiscal efforts.
- Climate change and natural disasters:
  - Climate adaptation and mitigation costs could cause additional fiscal costs on top of gradually increasing GFN to GDP in early 2030; Suriname occasionally affected by flooding from storm tails.
  - Importance of maintaining fiscal and liquidity buffers emphasized.
- Natural resource (oil) considerations:
  - Potential upside from oil discoveries noted; long-term analysis refrains from natural resource module until FID of a new oil development is confirmed.

### Public Debt Under Restructuring Scenario (program objectives and assumptions)
- Program overarching objectives (as stated):
  - Reduce public debt to 60 percent of GDP by 2035.
  - Reduce GFNs to an average of 9 percent and an upper limit of 12 percent over 2023–35.
  - These anchors provide sufficient buffer given Suriname’s vulnerabilities and are consistent with other IMF-supported regional restructurings (example countries listed in source).
- Specific assumption (excerpted start):
  - The perimeter for restructuring covers external commercial and official bilateral debt (including arrears), amounting to about 50 percent of GDP as of end-2021.
  - Authorities reached a restructuring agreement with Paris Club creditors on June 24, 2022, followed by bilateral agreements with all PC creditors. The final bilateral agreement was reached with Italy in June (text continues in source).

*Source: 1surea2024003-print-pdf - Annex I. Figure 2. Suriname: Debt Coverage and Disclosures*

### 2023. Under the agreement with the Paris Club, there is no face value reduction of official debt

### 1surea2024003-print-pdf - 2023. Under the agreement with the Paris Club, there is no face value reduction of official debt

### Debt restructuring and treatment (official, ECA-backed, and commercial)
- Paris Club (PC) and ECA-backed commercial debt:
  - No face value reduction of official debt and ECA-backed commercial debt.
  - Amortization paused for 7 years (until 2028) for Paris Club treatment and for 8 years (until 2029) for ECA-backed commercial debt.
  - 60 percent of the PC arrears under the bilateral agreement were already paid and the remaining 40 percent is expected to be paid in 2024.
- EXIM India:
  - Agreement on official credit lines by EXIM India in March 2023.
  - 60 percent of the end-2021 arrears have already been paid; remaining 40 percent expected to be paid in 2024.
  - In line with Paris Club agreements, amortization is paused for 7 years (until 2028) without face value reduction.
- EXIM China:
  - Agreement in principle at the technical level reached in November 2023 on both phases of debt treatment (flow and stock relief), appearing in line with PC treatment and program parameters; signed by both parties in March 2024.
  - Agreements with the Paris Club, India and EXIM China do not include a Value Recovery Instrument (VRI).
  - Agreements with the Paris Club and EXIM China include contingencies for the second phase of debt treatment tied to improved macroeconomic outlook and oil developments.
- External private creditors (bondholders):
  - Agreement in principle (AIP) with bondholders in May 2023; formal debt exchange finalized in November 2023.
  - Pre-CAC participation rate over 96 percent and post-CAC participation rate of 100 percent.
  - New bonds issued in an aggregate principal amount of USD 650 million, with an additional USD 10 million issued to cover fees and expenses of the bondholder committee.
  - Interest payments start from 2024:
    - Coupon of 4.95 percent in cash.
    - Coupon of 3 percent capitalized until January 2026, when coupon rate increases to 7.95 percent.
  - Amortization: 14 semi-annual installments starting in 2027 equal to 1/14th of the outstanding principal amount.
  - Bonds include a VRI conditional on new revenue streams from a specific oil development project currently under appraisal.
    - Program baseline conservatively does not incorporate additional oil revenue nor debt services on VRI given no final investment decision (FID).
    - After a “one-off” floor of USD 100 million secured for the government, the annual allocation to the VRI is limited to 30 percent of the royalty revenues from the oil development project.
    - Aggregate amount paid under the VRI is capped at USD 787 million.
  - Under the baseline (without the VRI) and using typical methodology used by official creditors such as the PC, this restructuring scenario results in NPV reductions of 19 percent for official and 21 percent for external commercial creditors at a 5 percent discount rate.
  - Other private creditors assumed to be treated in line with either bondholders or official bilateral creditors.
- CBvS (Central Bank of Suriname) restructuring:
  - Legacy debts to the CBvS restructured into a new loan with a grace period of 2 years and a maturity of 27 years.
  - All short-term advances made to the CG repaid to the CBvS in 2023; no outstanding arrears.
  - Losses from this restructuring to be reflected in the CBvS recapitalization plan.

### Domestic arrears, supplier arrears, and other domestic restructuring
- Accumulated domestic debt arrears to commercial banks and NBFIs peaked at SRD 3.3 billion as of November 2022.
- By February 2024, authorities finalized bilateral restructuring negotiations for all domestic debts (mainly by rollovers combined with extending maturities), including a large USD loan to a commercial bank which accounted for 50 percent of arrears at end-2023.
- Arrears (excluding technical arrears) stood at SRD 0.2 billion in March (SB, not met, implemented with a delay in May).
- Legacy supplier arrears:
  - Final audit of legacy supplier arrears as of end-2021 confirmed a stock of SRD 4.1 billion.
  - Authorities cleared (on a net basis) SRD 1.5 billion in 2022.
  - Total stock of accounts payable increased to SRD 7.3 billion by March 2024; about 80 percent of this stock is more than 90 days past the due date and hence considered supplier arrears.
- Gold loan:
  - Gold loan agreement in arrears evaluated at SRD 0.4 billion at end-2022; these arrears were cleared in 2024 under a renewed agreement.
- VAT arrears:
  - As of end-2023, authorities had accumulated SRD 0.8 billion of VAT arrears more than 90 days past the due date; these arrears are being cleared in line with new indicative targets.
- Domestic arrear repayment schedule in 2024 (net basis) — SRD millions and percent of GDP:
  - Arrear repayments: 4,970 SRD millions, 3.0% of GDP
  - Commercial banks and NBFIs: 1,870 SRD millions, 1.1% of GDP
  - Gold loan: 611 SRD millions, 0.4% of GDP
  - Suppliers: 1,679 SRD millions, 1.0% of GDP
  - VAT refunds: 809 SRD millions, 0.5% of GDP
  - Source: IMF staff estimates.

### Financing assumptions and fiscal/balance sheet operations
- Financing implications:
  - Financing requirements projected to decline significantly over the medium term due to external debt restructuring, both through face-value reduction and coupon reduction on existing external bilateral and commercial debt.
  - Budget support from the IDB assumed only until 2024 as a conservative assumption.
  - Project financing from multilateral creditors assumed to decline gradually in the medium to long term as Suriname switches to market financing of its capital expenditures.
  - Domestic financing expected to be limited in 2024 and 2025 due to gradual recovery in market confidence.
  - Baseline assumes no meaningful domestic market access until 2026 and external market access to resume in 2026.
  - Potential financing gap in 2025 filled by deposit withdrawal.
  - Government had accumulated deposits of SRD 18.0 billion (13 percent of GDP) by end-2023, providing a liquidity buffer for potential delays in market access.
- Recapitalizations and injections:
  - Recapitalization of the commercial banks assumed to add 0.4 percent of GDP to the public debt stock in 2024 and 0.2 percent of GDP in 2025 (one-off).
  - Based on FY 2020 audit, recapitalization of the CBvS assumed to equal 5.0 percent of GDP in 2024.
  - Baseline assumes CBvS will need annual injections to ensure capital and reserves grow with GDP.
  - Recapitalization requires a one-off cash injection of SRD 1.0 billion (0.6 percent of GDP) in 2024.

### Public debt and debt sustainability projections (baseline and scenarios)
- Public debt trajectory under restructuring scenario and program implementation:
  - Public debt on a steady downward trend over the medium and long term:
    - Falling below 90 percent in 2024.
    - Falling below 70 percent in 2028.
    - Falling below 50 percent in 2033.
  - GFNs (Gross Financing Needs) trajectory:
    - GFNs decline sharply from 9.9 percent in 2022 to 3.2 percent in 2026.
    - GFNs would rise to 6.6 percent in the medium to long term due to debt service to the IFIs (including the IMF) and repayments of restructured external claims, but would remain at sustainable levels over the long term with GFNs declining from 2033 onwards.
  - If downside risks materialize, fiscal consolidation beyond the program period may be needed to generate additional buffers.

### External DSA and external debt projections
- External debt levels and projections:
  - External debt expected to be 114 percent of GDP at end-2023, down from 148 percent at end-2022.
  - Total external debt projected to decline below 80 percent of GDP at end-2029.
  - External debt expected to track public sector external debt (which accounts for more than 50 percent of total external debt) and decline substantially due to large fiscal adjustment and public external debt restructuring.
- Risks and stress tests:
  - Various macroeconomic shocks generally keep external debt below 120 percent of GDP.
  - Historical scenario suggests external debt would be considerably higher than the baseline absent fiscal adjustment, public external debt restructuring, and macroeconomic stability.
  - Continued internal and external adjustment is critical to ensure external sustainability.

### External sector assessment, NIIP, and current account
- Overall external position assessment:
  - External position of Suriname in 2023 was moderately stronger than the level implied by fundamentals and desirable policies, based on cyclically adjusted current account balance consistent with current account norm of a balanced external sector position for Suriname.
- Current account (CA):
  - CA balance improved by 1.8 percentage points of GDP to a surplus of about 3.9 percentage of GDP in 2023 due to fiscal and monetary discipline.
  - From saving-investment perspective, public savings turned favorable from an overall fiscal deficit of -11 percent to -1.5 percent in 2023 after policy reversals and debt restructuring.
  - IMF’s EBA-Lite estimates for 2023:
    - Cyclical component of CA: 1.4 percent of GDP (negative contribution).
    - Current account norm from model: -6.7 percent of GDP.
    - Adjustments to the norm:
      - Migrant share: 5.6 percent of GDP.
      - Financing constraints: 2.0 percent of GDP.
      - Adjusted CA Norm: 0.9 percent of GDP.
    - Adjusted CA (cyclically adjusted and multilateral consistency adjustments): 2.5 percent of GDP.
    - CA Gap in 2023: 1.7 percent of GDP.
    - CA-model based REER gap: -3.8 percent using default elasticities.
  - Medium-term projection: current account balance expected to be 2 percent of GDP, marginally above the current account balance norm, driven by tight fiscal policies consistent with debt restructuring parameters.
- Net International Investment Position (NIIP) and assets/liabilities:
  - NIIP was -70.7 percent of GDP in 2023, improved from -80.4 percent of GDP in 2022.
  - Improvement drivers:
    - Current account surplus supported improvement in net IIP of 2.1 percent of GDP (BOP errors and omissions excluded).
    - Debt restructuring improved net IIP by 6.8 percent of GDP.
    - Remaining improvement due to valuation changes and GDP base effect.
  - Assets:
    - Increased from USD 2.46 Billion in 2022 (68.8 percent of 2022 GDP) to USD 2.8 Billion (74.6 percent of GDP) in 2023.
    - Reserve buildup and valuation changes contributed 5.9 and 0.5 percent of 2023 GDP respectively; portfolio asset buildup contributed 3.5 percent of 2023 GDP.
  - Liabilities:
    - Increased in level from USD 5.38 Billion to USD 5.45 Billion but decreased marginally from 148.1 percent of GDP in 2022 to 145.3 percent of GDP in 2023 owing to GDP base effect.
    - Borrowing from IMF and IaDB accounted for 5.8 percent of GDP; portfolio liabilities added 2.3 percent new liabilities and 2.71 price changes; debt restructuring reduced portfolio liabilities by 6.8 percent of GDP.
  - Currency composition: Assets and liabilities denominated mostly in USD and Euros.
  - Projections:
    - Net IIP expected to reach USD -2 Billion in 2028, corresponding to accumulated current account surpluses over the period.
    - Assets expected to increase by USD 0.34 Billion (mostly reserves buildup).
    - Liabilities projected to decline by USD 0.28 Billion (government debt repayment net terms reducing liabilities by USD 0.19 Billion; remainder from unwinding of FDI position through repatriation of retained earnings).
- Real exchange rate and NEER:
  - Average nominal NEER depreciated sharply by around 20 percent during 2023 due to a massive depreciation of the exchange rate at the beginning of the year.
  - Average REER depreciated in 2023 (value not fully quoted in provided text).

*Source: IMF staff estimates as presented in the provided IMF document.*

### 2.7 percent in 2023. Between end-2022 and April 2023, the NEER depreciated 19 percent while the REER

### 2.7 percent in 2023

### Exchange rate developments and assessment
- NEER depreciated 19 percent between end-2022 and April 2023 while the REER depreciated 5 percent over the same period.
- As the exchange rate stabilized towards the latter half of 2023:
  - NEER depreciated 16 percent.
  - REER appreciated 9 percent.
- REER appreciation was partly due to an improvement of 1.4 percent in the Terms of Trade, helped by lower oil and manufactured goods prices.
- NEER volatility and historical depreciation:
  - Average NEER depreciation of 19.2 percent over 2018-2022.
  - Peak NEER depreciation of 37 percent in 2020.
- REER pass-through:
  - Strong and quick pass through of exchange rate depreciation kept REER relatively stable, with average REER depreciation of only 1.3 percent over 2018-2022.

Assessment
- The IMF’s EBA-Lite REER methodology applied to 2023 BOP data suggests the real exchange rate is undervalued by 16.6 percent using the REER model-based elasticities.
- Policy implications:
  - Flexibility in exchange rate is key for letting REER align with fundamentals.
  - With real interest rates converging to desirable policy levels in the first quarter of 2024, policy-related real interest rate contributions to REER undervaluation are removed.
  - Removal of credit gaps in April 2024 with a resultant increase in credit growth will remove the credit-related policy gaps.

### Capital and financial accounts: flows and policy measures
Findings for 2023
- Other investment inflows of USD 216 million (5.8 percent of GDP) in 2023, mostly due to increased government budget support by IMF, IADB and other multilaterals.
- Portfolio inflows of 132 million (3.5 percent of GDP) in 2023, representing debt restructuring on Eurobonds.
- Portfolio outflows of USD 86 million (2.3 percent of GDP) in 2023.
- Direct investment outflows occurred as easing forex conditions enabled companies to repatriate long overdue dividends.

Policy measures and background
- Partial forex surrender requirements remain in place: exporters are required to surrender 35 percent of their forex proceeds.
- Authorities have no plans to change the surrender requirements; staff view them as non-macro-critical and helpful for forex market liquidity.
- Risk of violations of article VIII is expected to be mitigated once the planned FX trading platform is launched.

Assessment
- Supported by the Extended Fund arrangement under EFF, the net international position has improved, reducing vulnerabilities in the external sector.
- Authorities’ reform agenda, including fiscal restraint and a restrictive monetary policy, will maintain the downward trajectory in the negative NIIP position.

### FX intervention and reserves level
Findings
- Usable international reserves (gross international reserves minus PBOC swap and banks’ ring-fenced required reserves) increased sharply to USD 1112 million (6 months of imports) in 2023.
- The level of usable reserves in 2023 is 124 percent of the ARA reserve adequacy metric, within the recommended range of 100-150 percent of the ARA EM metric.
- Usable reserves were USD 865 Million in 2022.
- Suriname is expected to accumulate usable international reserves to around 160 percent of the ARA reserve adequacy metric (equivalent of around 6 months of imports) by end-2028.

Policy measures and assessment
- Consistent with the commitment to exchange rate flexibility, authorities have refrained from intervening in the forex market.
- The practice of directly providing forex to essential mineral exporters from the authorities’ share of forex mineral revenue in exchange for authorities receiving SRDs at the going market rate will cease in June 2024.
- Staff view the need for further reserve accumulation to mitigate against unfavorable terms of trade shocks and delays in external market access.
- Staff recommend authorities continue to refrain from intervening in the forex market and maintain exchange rate flexibility.

### Risk Assessment Matrix — selected risks, impacts, and policy responses
Conjunctural risks (selected)
- Intensification of regional conflicts (Likelihood: High; Economic Impact: Medium)
  - Impact: Disrupt trade, remittances, FDI and financial flows; increase refugee flows; worsen fiscal and current account balances; inflation pressures.
  - Policy response: Remain committed to fiscal discipline; provide targeted fiscal support to ensure delivery of essential services; increase social assistance transfers.
- Commodity price volatility (Likelihood: High; Economic Impact: High)
  - Impact: Increase fuel and/or food prices; worsen current account; increase inflation and exchange rate pressures.
  - Policy response: Reprioritize spending to support vulnerable; maintain tight monetary policy; move ahead with transition to renewable economy; raise domestic capacity for food and other goods supply; maintain fiscal and external sustainability.
- Abrupt global slowdown (Likelihood: Medium; Economic Impact: High)
  - Impact: Lower trade, remittances, investment; resume currency depreciation and inflation; worsen fiscal and external accounts; higher debt service costs.
  - Policy response: Keep exchange rate flexible; use policy space to support economy and protect vulnerable consistent with monetary framework and fiscal sustainability; implement structural measures to improve competitiveness; monitor banks’ buffers.

Other systemic and macro-financial risks (selected)
- Monetary policy miscalibration (Likelihood: Medium; Economic Impact: Medium)
  - Policy response: Keep exchange rate flexibility; maintain tight monetary policy; reprioritize spending for vulnerable.
- Systemic financial instability (Likelihood: Medium; Economic Impact: Medium)
  - Policy response: Monitor financial system; be ready to provide liquidity assistance; adjust macroprudential measures; continue fiscal discipline and structural reforms.
- Sovereign debt distress (Likelihood: Medium; Economic Impact: High)
  - Policy response: Maintain fiscal discipline and tight monetary policy; proceed with sovereign debt restructuring; seek additional financing from IFIs and bilateral donors.
- Social discontent (Likelihood: Medium; Economic Impact: High)
  - Policy response: Reprioritize spending to support vulnerable; strengthen social safety nets; maintain tight monetary policy.

Structural risks and country-specific risks (selected)
- Deepening geoeconomic fragmentation (Likelihood: High; Economic Impact: Medium)
  - Policy response: Allow exchange rate to adjust; use monetary policy space if inflation has fallen; extend targeted support by reprioritizing spending.
- Disorderly energy transition (Likelihood: Medium; Economic Impact: Low)
  - Policy response: Build capacity to monitor climate risks; build data collection mechanisms.
- Extreme climate events (Likelihood: Medium; Economic Impact: High)
  - Policy response: Accelerate investment into climate resilient infrastructure; continue seeking climate financing.
- Deceleration of reform momentum (Likelihood: High; Economic Impact: High)
  - Policy response: Adhere to fiscal consolidation strategy under the program to generate high primary surpluses on a sustained basis and facilitate the programmed reduction in public debt to 60 percent of GDP by 2035/36.

*Source: IMF staff assessment and annexed Risk Assessment Matrix from the provided content.*

### Appendix I. Letter of Intent

### Appendix I. Letter of Intent

### Overview and program status
- Continued implementation of macroeconomic adjustment and structural reforms to recover from the economic crisis and lay foundations for inclusive growth; completed four consecutive reviews (2nd through 5th) over the course of one year.
- Conservative 2024 budget; ongoing phase-out of subsidies on electricity, water, and gas.
- Removal of unregistered and chronically absent workers from public payrolls; enforcement of hiring freeze.
- Fully cleared domestic arrears to banks; measures to prevent accumulation of supplier arrears.
- Restrictive monetary policy has put inflation on a firmly downward trend.
- Debt restructuring recognized by donors, credit rating agencies, and investors; international bond spreads at historic lows.

### Fiscal measures, VAT, and social protection
- VAT reforms and administration:
  - VAT introduced and base broadened; standard 10 percent VAT rate applied to 60 percent of household consumption.
  - New 5 percent rate on water, electricity, and cooking gas to be introduced in June 2024.
  - Over 4,200 registered taxpayers by April 2024 (target: 5,000); filing compliance around 70 percent.
  - Ministerial resolution: for tax returns due in June 2024 and onwards, late filing and/or failure to pay will incur penalties and interest.
  - Outstanding returns for taxable periods January 2023 to April 2024 have until June 30 to file and pay or arrange payment of VAT without penalties and interest; penalties and interest apply after that date.
  - Commitment to monitor and clear outstanding VAT refund arrears by end-2024.
  - Implement streamlined and risk-based procedures to ensure fast processing of VAT refunds; "gold list" for fast-track refunds for compliant taxpayers.
- Electricity subsidy reform:
  - Electricity bills increased around 36 percent in 2023.
  - Tariff adjustment plan for 2024: first increase of 40 percent in March; further four increases of 7 percent each planned for the rest of the year.
  - Tariffs linked to exchange rate and oil price developments; commercial users to reach cost-recovery by mid-2024.
  - Low- and middle-income households will continue to receive partial support.
  - Agreement with Staatsolie on a new settlement mechanism to ensure targeted fiscal savings from subsidy reductions are achieved.
  - Publication commitments: quarterly updates on tariffs, rationale, estimated cost of providing electricity, and remaining size of subsidy; electricity bills will show cost, consumption, subject subsidy, and object subsidy.
- Wage bill and public employment:
  - Public wage bill to be kept constant in real terms in 2024, at 6.7 percent of GDP.
  - Removal of unregistered and chronically absent workers underway; clearance of other irregularities (e.g., workers with two full-time salaries).
  - Digital personnel data information system rolled out at five ministries in February 2024; expected to cover all ministries by end-2024.
  - Savings from payroll measures to be used to modestly increase real compensation of public sector workers in 2024, particularly for high-skilled workers.
- Fuel policy:
  - Fuel subsidies fully eliminated in March 2023; taxes on fuel reinstated.
  - Fuel prices determined by an automatic pricing mechanism based on international prices.
  - Methodology developed to automatically increase fuel taxes when fuel prices drop and decrease them when fuel prices increase; methodology incorporates annual adjustments for inflation and a floor on the tax.

### Fiscal performance and targets
- Q1 2024 primary surplus: SRD 28 million.
- End-March primary fiscal balance targets under the program (unadjusted and adjusted): SRD 1,153 and SRD 1,755 million, respectively (program targets not met).
- Target primary balance for the year: 2.7 percent of GDP.
- Measures to reach required primary balance include stricter VAT enforcement (penalties and interest), fast-track refunds for compliant companies, stricter enforcement of the “no work-no pay law”, capping direct settlements by the state oil company, ensuring electricity tariff increases bring corresponding fiscal savings and are properly reflected in fiscal accounts, and curtailing non-priority capital expenditures.
- To address slippages on monetary targets: improve information sharing between MOFP and the central bank on liquidity forecasting and arrears repayment.

### Debt restructuring and public debt management
- Debt restructuring entering final phase:
  - EXIM China drafting the final agreement, expected to be signed in coming months.
  - Start negotiations with the Paris Club for the second phase of debt treatment in September.
  - Agreement-in-principle (AIP) with ICBC expected in the coming months.
- Fully repaid all domestic debt arrears and built capacity of the debt management office to properly record and promptly service domestic and external debt obligations.
- Capacity and institutional steps taken to service obligations and record debt.

### Monetary policy, exchange rate, and FX market measures
- Restrictive monetary policy has contained inflation and currency depreciation pressures; bank credit growth caps discontinued.
- Considering gradual loosening of the monetary policy stance given tight liquidity conditions and recent sharp exchange rate appreciation; will consult IMF staff on additional policy steps.
- Commitment to a flexible, market-determined exchange rate; any FX regulations will be consistent with program objectives and not interfere with FX market functioning.
- CBvS has refrained from FX interventions.
- From July, mineral companies to pay all government revenue obligations in FX as import backlogs for essential goods suppliers have been resolved.
- Plan to launch an electronic trading platform for inter-bank FX trading to increase liquidity and transparency; platform to be gradually expanded, based on AML/CFT compliance, to cover cambios and gold exporters.
- Submission of legislative amendment of the Foreign Exchange Regulation 1947 to the National Assembly to bring it in line with the new Central Bank Act.

### Financial sector resilience and central bank governance
- CBvS to publish audited IFRS financial statements of 2021 and 2022 in June and September respectively.
- Finalize time-bound plan to recapitalize the central bank by end-June, with provisions for additional recapitalization needs if required by subsequent financial statements.
- CBvS, in consultation with the IMF, set common equity tier one and capital adequacy ratio targets for banks with capital shortages and outlined corrective measures if CET1/CAR targets are breached.
- Ongoing amendments to the Anti-Corruption legal framework:
  - Criminalize acts of corruption.
  - Require income and asset declarations of politically exposed persons, routine verification of these declarations, publication of this information, and establishment of proportionate sanctions for non-compliance.

### Program support, requests, and conditionality
- Request completion of the sixth review of the extended arrangement under the EFF, which will make available an amount equivalent to SDR 46.7 million (36.3 percent of quota or about USD 62.6 million) upon approval (out of which SDR 19.1 million or about USD 25.7 million would be for budget support), and request completion of the financing assurances review.
- Request waivers for nonobservance of the end-March 2024 QPCs (floor on the primary fiscal balance (cash basis) of central government; the ceiling on net domestic assets (NDAs) of the central bank; the floor on the net international reserves of the central bank) based on corrective actions undertaken.
- Request modification of the QPCs on the ceiling on net domestic assets (NDAs) of the central bank and the floor on the net international reserves of the central bank for the remainder of the program and modification of the end-June 2024 and end-September 2024 fiscal QPCs.
- Commitment to publish this letter, its attachments, and the related staff report on the websites of the Ministry of Finance and Planning (MoFP) and the CBvS; authorization for the IMF to publish these documents.
- Government will provide IMF staff with all relevant information required to complete scheduled program reviews and monitor performance on a timely basis.
- Government will observe standard continuous performance criteria against imposing or intensifying exchange restrictions, introducing or modifying multiple currency practices, concluding bilateral payment agreements inconsistent with Article VIII, and imposing or intensifying import restrictions for balance of payments reasons.

### Key macroeconomic and program figures and dates
- IMF EFF approval: December 22, 2021; access of 366.8 percent of quota (SDR 472.8 million or USD 673 million).
- Completed reviews under EFF: second review in June 2023; third, fourth, and fifth reviews in September 2023, December 2023, and March 2024 respectively.
- Inflation: 26.8 percent year-on-year in March.
- Usable international reserves: 6 months of imports at end-March.
- Q1 2024 primary surplus: SRD 28 million.
- Program unadjusted and adjusted end-March primary targets: SRD 1,153 and SRD 1,755 million respectively.
- Target primary balance for the year: 2.7 percent of GDP.
- Tax registration: over 4,200 registered by April 2024 (target 5,000); filing compliance around 70 percent.
- VAT rates: standard 10 percent; new 5 percent rate on water, electricity, and cooking gas from June 2024.
- VAT filing/pay deadline without penalties: June 30 for periods January 2023–April 2024.
- Electricity bill changes: around 36 percent increase in 2023; tariff increases in 2024 include a 40 percent increase in March and four further increases of 7 percent each.
- Public wage bill in 2024: 6.7 percent of GDP.
- Requested disbursement on sixth review: SDR 46.7 million (36.3 percent of quota or about USD 62.6 million), of which SDR 19.1 million or about USD 25.7 million for budget support.

*Appendix I. Letter of Intent (1surea2024003-print-pdf)*

### 8.      We are strengthening fiscal institutions. The reforms focus on improving our tax

### 8.      We are strengthening fiscal institutions. The reforms focus on improving our tax

### Improving treasury management
- Implement a pilot treasury single account (TSA) for a limited set of ministries (structural benchmark for end-January 2025).
- Issued a state decree to provide the Minister of Finance the authority to access all banks accounts held by government entities at commercial banks (structural benchmark for end-March 2024, met).
- IMF capacity development to support TSA implementation, including:
  - devising new business processes for the TSA;
  - developing a strategy for the orderly transition of balances from individual bank accounts to the TSA;
  - communicating the decision broadly across ministries and building capacity for all those involved.
- Pilot to be evaluated after 2024 implementation and considered for full rollout in subsequent years.

### Preventing supplier arrears and cash management
- Created a cash management unit within the Treasury at end-2023 to oversee TSA implementation, liquidity planning, accounts management, and cashflow management (IMF capacity development support).
- Issued a resolution that government will not be responsible for contracts agreed with line ministries that have no prior authorization from the MoFP (structural benchmark for end-April, met).
- Budget Department to set commitment ceilings by line ministry at least quarterly and enforce them, including through FreeBalance (continuous structural benchmark, not met, expected to be implemented with delay in June).
  - Requires institutionalizing meetings and data sharing between the Budget Department and the Cash Management Unit.
- Mandate all line ministries to report the stock of arrears to the Ministry of Finance and Planning (MoFP) monthly (structural benchmark for end-June 2024, met).
- With IMF support, continue to enhance the quality and accuracy of arrears information by strengthening legal framework, processes and institutional capacities.

### Strengthening tax administration
- Prioritizing improvements in VAT administration to reduce VAT refund arrears and improve compliance and collections.
- Operational measures:
  - Post all VAT returns filed to taxpayers’ accounts within 24 hours of filing.
  - Post all payments within 24 hours of receiving the information from banks.
- Mandate that all importers and exporters use the Fiscal Identification Number (FIN) (end-June 2024 proposed to be reformulated) when processing transactions with the Custom and Excise Department; expansion of FIN mandate to cover all taxpayers by end-December 2024.
- Establish a dedicated VAT refund account to pay refunds by July 2024.
- With IMF capacity development, develop a national audit plan with audit risk selection criteria by end-August 2024.
- Develop an online VAT payment option by end-July 2024.
- These improvements are expected to improve administration of all taxes.

### Improving debt management and recording
- Improved SDMO’s back-office capacity and coordination between SDMO, the MoFP, and the CBvS.
- Set up an information system to receive and dispatch information regarding upcoming payments to external creditors.
- Produced and signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between SDMO, MoFP, and CBvS with IMF capacity development:
  - defines responsibilities for timely information provision and processing of payments;
  - specifies an escalation process within each agency and procedures for inter-agency monitoring.
- No new external debt arrears accumulated since system setup.
- Fully staffed the SDMO with six employees responsible solely for back-office functions.

### Improving procurement practices
- Ratified the Caribbean Community (CARICOM)’s Protocol on Public Procurement in July 2022.
- Commit to enact a new procurement law to centralize and mandate publication of all public procurement tenders and contract awards, including:
  - names of awarded entities and their beneficial owner(s);
  - names of public officials awarding the contracts;
  - ex-post validation of delivery of contracted services (structural benchmark for end-September 2023, not met).
- Publish procurement information on an external government website by end-September 2024 (once law enacted).
- Incorporate a procurement module into the Integrated Financial Management Information System and integrate with the regional system (in collaboration with the CARICOM Secretariat).

### Strengthening public investment management with climate considerations
- With help from the IDB, upgrading public investment management (PIM) procedures into a PIM manual.
- Publish PIM manual with general guidelines for economic appraisal of investment projects, including climate change and flood risk management considerations, and sectoral guidelines for key ministries by end-December 2024.
- Engaged line ministries to sensitize them and plan to strengthen PIM governance legal framework and establish a public investment unit at the Ministry of Finance.

### Strengthening SOE oversight
- Collect and publish the latest financial information for the largest SOEs.
- Initiate quarterly financial monitoring of these SOEs.
- With IMF capacity development, produce a report that identifies and quantifies the fiscal risk generated by the largest SOEs by end-December 2024.

### III. Strengthening the social safety net — protecting poor and vulnerable groups
- Policy objective: ensure fiscal consolidation burden is not borne by the poor and vulnerable; channel fiscal space from eliminating generalized energy subsidies to help the poor.
- Extreme poverty trends:
  - Extreme poverty increased from 0.7 in 2016/17 to 2.6 percent of households (2022 Survey of Living Conditions).
  - Interior: 6.3 percent of households in extreme poverty.
  - Largest increases: Great Paramaribo (1.5 percentage points higher) and rest of coastal regions (3.2 percentage points higher).
  - Overall poverty fell from 23.4 percent to 21.7 percent.
- Social protection actions and targets:
  - Q1 2024 social protection target missed; corrective steps taken.
  - July increase in cash transfers by around 45 percent and expanded coverage of the social beneficiary program (SRD 1800 per month) to include recipients of the general old age pension.
  - December 2023 fast-tracked registration and delivery of digital payments cards for applicants to the new social beneficiary program; January one-off payments to eligible beneficiaries.
  - Increase social spending from 2.2 percent of GDP in 2023 to 3 percent of GDP in 2024.
  - Social beneficiary program now has over 113,000 beneficiaries.
  - Coordinate increases in social beneficiary program with electricity tariff adjustments to protect vulnerable households while phasing out energy subsidies.
  - Effort to reach and deliver social aid to all eligible households.
- Strategic plan and digitalization:
  - Finalized a home-grown strategic plan in line with Multi-Annual Development Plan 2022–26 (end-December SB, not met, implemented with delay in May 2024) with ILO and IDB diagnostics.
  - Plan focuses on efficiency savings by rationalizing programs and expanding coverage.
  - Create a single digital beneficiary information system financed by the IDB, expected ready for implementation by end-2025 to streamline 21 social programs.
  - Transition to digital payment methods to expand coverage and reduce costs.
  - Purchased 73,500 government-provided debit cards to service traditional and new cash transfer programs (IDB support).
  - Digital payments expected to improve delivery to interior where consumption poverty is 20 percentage points above the national average and only 21 percent of adults have bank accounts.
- Transparency:
  - Published a monthly report on the Ministry of Social Affairs and Housing’s external website detailing households/individuals covered by each program in each district, value of cash transfers by district and program, and eligibility criteria (end-January 2024 SB, met).

### IV. Restructuring public debt — restoring sustainability
- Commitment to bring down public debt to 60 percent of GDP by 2035.
- Keep gross financing needs below an average of 9 percent of GDP in 2024-35 (and no higher than 12 percent of GDP in any one year).
- Program ensures fiscal position is fully financed in 2024 and 2025.
- Sovereign debt restructuring approach: inter-creditor equity and comparability of treatment of all official bilateral creditors.
- Paris Club and bondholder outcomes:
  - Agreement in principle with Paris Club creditors in June 2022; bilateral agreements subsequently signed with all Paris Club creditors.
  - Agreement-in-principle with the Bondholder’s Committee in May 2023; actual debt exchange finalized in November 2023 with pre-CAC participation of more than 96 percent and 100 percent post-CAC participation.
  - Two outstanding Eurobonds exchanged for one fixed income instrument containing a value recovery instrument (VRI) structured for the Republic and population to benefit from oil-related revenues.
- Engagements with China and India:
  - Restructuring offers presented to China and India in July 2022; finalized agreements with India in 2023.
  - November 2023: agreement in principle at the technical level with China EXIM on two-stage (flow and stock relief) debt treatment; signed by both parties in March.
  - AIP comparable with Paris Club and consistent with debt sustainability; final agreement with EXIM China and PC creditors on second phase expected in coming months.
- Private external creditors:
  - Negotiations conducted in good faith with timely sharing of relevant, non-confidential information.
  - April: agreement signed with ABN AMRO to restructure two outstanding loans.
  - Government approach based on four pillars: (i) fair and equitable treatment for all creditors; (ii) transparency and constructive dialogue; (iii) commitment to fiscal consolidation and reform policies; (iv) sustainable debt solution within the IMF debt sustainability framework.
- Domestic debt restructuring and arrears:
  - Restructuring of legacy debts to the CBvS concluded in July 2023.
  - Restructuring of domestic debt (including arrears) to commercial banks completed in January 2024.
  - Cleared all remaining domestic debt arrears except technical arrears (end-March SB, not met, implemented with delay in May).
- Other accounts payable and supplier arrears:
  - Other accounts payable, of which 80 percent are supplier arrears that were due more than 90 days ago, stood at SRD 7.6 billion in December 2023.
  - Commit to put a full stop to accumulation of new supplier arrears and to gradually clear entire stock of supplier arrears by end-2027.
  - Commit to offset any clearance of supplier arrears by lower goods and services spending (fiscal targets evaluated on a cash basis).
  - Actively implementing measures to monitor and prevent accumulation of supplier arrears (see ¶9).
- Guarantees and collateralized debt:
  - Government will not provide guarantees to debt contracted by other parties during the program.
  - Government and SOEs will not contract new debt that is collateralized by natural resource revenues (or allow the public sector to contract such debt on behalf of the central government).

### V. Managing monetary policy
- Monetary stance and liquidity tightening:
  - SRD liquidity conditions tightened, supporting downward inflation trend.
  - Central bank OMOs: more regular wholesale auctions and direct issuances of Central Bank Certificates (CBCs).
  - Local currency reserve requirement increased from 39 to 44 percent last year.
  - Month-on-month inflation dropped to pre-crisis levels and stabilized.
  - Exchange rate appreciating in recent months.
  - Private sector credit growth slowed; CBvS guidance to commercial banks to limit the increase in the stock of nominal credit to 20 percent over a 12-month period through end-March 2024.
- Considering gradual relaxation of monetary stance:
  - Scope to slow down decrease in reserve money in real terms given disinflation trends to increase credit availability in SRD and support growth.
  - Gradual relaxation will be accompanied by close monitoring of FX market developments and bank profitability.
- Improving liquidity forecasting capability:
  - End-March net domestic assets (NDA) and net international reserves (NIR) targets missed because clearance of both SRD and FX denominated domestic and supplier arrears were not adequately captured in CBvS’ liquidity forecasts.
  - Improved accuracy and timeliness of government revenue and expenditure data (including arrears clearance) provided by the MOFP to the CBvS will enhance liquidity forecasts.
  - As part of TSA implementation, gradually move available government deposits in commercial banks to the CBvS to improve forecasting of liquidity conditions.
  - Align the base for calculation of the FX and SRD SNEPS norm with reserve requirements for banks.
- Reducing usage of CBCs and market development:
  - Abide by the Central Bank Certificate auction schedule for the rest of the year and consult IMF staff before releasing the schedule of CBC auctions for 2025.
  - No ad-hoc CBC retail auctions to be conducted.
  - Plan to allow banks to sell CBCs in the secondary market under clear rules to strengthen monetary transmission.
  - Gradually reduce the volume and the average maturity of CBCs to accommodate development of government securities market.
- Liquidity support facilities and OMO participation:
  - CBvS stands ready to help banks cover unexpected short-term liquidity gaps through standing lending and intraday facilities.
  - Standing facility priced based on weighted average price of open-market operations plus a modest spread to prevent excessive reliance.
  - Facilities underutilized as banks hold high precautionary reserves.
  - Engage commercial banks to align assessments of excess liquidity and improve understanding of liquidity facilities.
  - Explore digitalizing processes so healthy banks can more easily draw on liquidity facilities without cumbersome paper-based requests.
  - If required, CBvS will sterilize liquidity from facility use through OMOs to minimize disruptions to reserve money targets.
  - Banks’ access to the ELA is subject to supervisory decision based on viability and solvency assessments and remedial action as needed.
- Foreign exchange policy and market operations:
  - FX policy: commitment to a flexible, market-determined exchange rate; refrained from direct FX interventions.
  - FX market pressures eased significantly; exchange rate appreciating since December.
  - Phase out limited indirect FX sales to essential goods importers in June 2024.
  - Cumulative FX sales between July 2023 and end-March 2024 were limited to just over USD 25 million to keep total central government SRD mineral revenue receipts under the program USD 30 million ceiling.
  - MoFP will continue to transfer all other government net FX receipts (including from IFI budget support) at the prevailing market exchange rate to the CBvS only, except for transfers required to meet the government’s domestic FX debt service obligations.

*Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2024/english/1surea2024003-print-pdf.pdf*

### 22.      We are improving functioning of the foreign exchange market. After a series of

### 22. We are improving functioning of the foreign exchange market.

### Foreign exchange market improvements and governance
- The electronic FX trading platform (end-September 2023 SB, not met) will be launched in June.
- Initial participation limited to inter-bank transactions; will be expanded progressively, based on their AML/CFT compliance, to cambios and to gold exporters.
- Exporters required to offer 35 percent of export proceeds to the market (surrender requirement remains in force).
- Sale of repatriated FX to follow banks’ own daily rates as per the CBvS Circular 2023-2 issued on September 8, 2023.
- No additional FX market regulatory guidance has been issued; the authorities remain committed to consult with the Fund before issuing any such guidance.
- Authorities will refrain from interventions or administrative measures that could impede efficient functioning of the FX market or be inconsistent with the program or Suriname’s obligations under Article VIII, Sections 2 and 3 of the IMF’s Article of Agreement.

### Reducing banking sector risks
- Banking system capital adequacy ratio: 21.6 percent as of March 2024.
- Nonperforming loans continue to decline but on average remain above the five percent benchmark.
- Banks’ long positions in FX, an appreciating exchange rate, and retail investors’ FX deposit withdrawals increase losses from foreign exchange holdings.
- System-level liquidity:
  - Liquid assets comprise 54.2 percent of total assets.
  - SRD liquidity is tight because of high demand for CBCs by retail investors.
  - Liquidity is unevenly distributed across banks and skewed towards two large systemic banks.
- Authorities will prudently monitor liquidity and consult IMF staff on any monetary policy changes affecting bank liquidity.

- Bank recapitalization plans and supervisory measures:
  - Banks with capital shortages pledge to reach required CET1 and CAR levels by end of 2024 and 2026 respectively.
  - Interim CET1 and CAR targets set in consultation with IMF staff, with prompt corrective actions if breached (structural benchmark, not met, implemented with delay in April 2024).
  - Banks subject to enhanced supervision and restrictions on dividend payouts and bonus payments.
  - Any government solvency support will be for viable banks under strict conditionality with an exit strategy to minimize costs and moral hazard.

- Structural reforms to strengthen supervision:
  - State-owned banks must align with governance framework agreed by CBvS and MoFP to be run on a fully commercial basis.
  - Recovery in capital for a state-owned bank with a capital shortfall must stem from a sustainable business model.
  - Amendments to the Banking and Credit System Supervision Act enacted in January enhance risk-based supervision.
  - Bank Resolution Bill will strengthen CBvS’ powers for early intervention, recovery, and resolution.
  - Ongoing assessment of banks’ strategies to reduce nonperforming loans in line with supervisory guidance.

- Other financial sector reforms:
  - Commitments to improve supervision of insurance and pension sectors, capital market, and electronic payment systems; establish credit reporting and deposit insurance; and enhance electronic transactions.
  - CBvS is drafting acts and regulations in these areas.
  - Ongoing efforts to strengthen the AML/CFT framework and enhance monitoring of non-bank financial institutions’ interconnectedness with the banking system.
  - Collection of information on loans extended by insurance firms and pension funds; efforts to enhance functioning of the credit bureau.
  - Revised AML/CFT regulation issued in February 2024.
  - A comprehensive plan to coordinate and integrate reform initiatives will be prepared, supported by IMF and other technical assistance.

### Improving monetary governance
- CBvS audit progress:
  - Audited FY 2020 financial statements (IFRS) published in November 2023.
  - FY 2021 and FY 2022 audited financial statements to be published by end-June 2024 and end-September 2024 (SBs).
  - Audits of program monetary data for each test date have not raised material issues; audits to continue for future test dates.
  - CBvS will continue to co-source specific audits while building internal audit capacity.
  - IMF technical assistance received to strengthen governance and oversight of foreign reserves management; TA suggestions to be implemented.

- Foreign Exchange Regulation of 1947 review:
  - Elements not aligned with amendments to the Central Bank Act identified in consultation with IMF staff (e.g., determination of exchange rate policy, setting exchange rates for FX transactions, use of different rates).
  - Legislative amendment submitted to the National Assembly (structural benchmark for end-December 2023, not met, implemented with delay in May).
  - Foreign Exchange Commission has refrained from using the powers covered by the amendments in anticipation of adoption.
  - Full review of the Foreign Exchange Regulation of 1947 to be undertaken in consultation with IMF staff and stakeholders; review delayed due to staffing constraints, aim to finalize by the end of December 2024.

- CBvS recapitalization plan:
  - Will be based on the FY 2020 published audited financials.
  - Will include provisions to inject more equity should finalized FY 2021, FY 2022, and FY 2023 audits and/or a realized lower market value of instruments used for recapitalization imply higher recapitalization needs.
  - Will include a clear target level of capital with implementation through marketable instruments.
  - Will outline a binding timeline to complete recapitalization before the end of the program.
  - Will contain an agreement between the MoFP and the CBvS on procedures to ensure CBvS equity remains above the minimum level in the Central Bank Act.

### Tackling corruption, improving governance, and enhancing the AML/CFT framework
- Anti-corruption and asset declaration measures:
  - UNCAC ratified; Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) installed in May 2023 for a 5-year term.
  - Amendments to the anti-corruption legal framework to align with Chapter III of UNCAC (criminalization of acts of corruption) to be enacted by end-June (structural benchmark for end-June 2024) with IMF capacity development.
  - Creation of an asset and income declaration (AID) scheme aligned with international best practice, requiring declarations from politically exposed persons, routine verification, public availability of declarations (except confidential data), and proportionate sanctions for non-compliance (structural benchmark for end-September 2024).
  - Discussions with providers, including IDB, for an electronic management program for the AID scheme; authorities will liaise with the IMF on system selection.

- AML/CFT legal and supervisory reforms:
  - New AML/CFT law enacted in November 2022 following CFATF November 2022 assessment.
  - To fully comply with CFATF requirements, authorities will:
    - (i) implement a risk-based AML/CFT supervision for all financial institutions (banks, exchange offices, money transfer offices, credit unions, insurance companies, and pension funds);
    - (ii) develop and implement risk-based supervisory framework for DNFBPs;
    - (iii) make available adequate human, financial, and technological resources to the FIU;
    - (iv) amend the International Sanctions Framework to update implementation of UN Security Council Resolutions Against Terrorism and Proliferation Financing.
  - Ongoing efforts to amend the Money Transfer Offices Supervision Act, Capital Markets Act, and to introduce Insurance Supervision Act and Electronic Payment Systems Act.

- National Risk Assessment and Sectoral Risk Analysis:
  - Commitment to initiate second National Risk Assessment (2020–24); Kroll AML Division contracted to advise and assist.
  - Ministry of Economic Affairs started sectoral assessment regarding Legal Persons including UBOs and NPOs.
  - AML Steering Council approved AML Strategic Plan 2022–25 in November 2022 and a list of High Prioritized Actions for 2023—Q2 2024 in March 2023, being rigorously implemented.
  - Aim to complete the second NRA by August-2024.
  - Sectoral Risk Analysis (SRA) of the banking sector began in April 2023 with OAS-DTOC TA; SRA banking sector report delivered in February 2024.
  - SRAs of exchange offices, money transfer offices, insurance, and pension funds expected to be finalized shortly thereafter.
  - New AML/CFT Directive issued in March and April 2024; supervision legislation (in line with FATF requirements) pending in the National Assembly with IMF and UNODC/World Bank technical assistance.

### Improving governance and transparency in the extractive sector
- Suriname joined EITI in 2017 and has published reports for fiscal years 2016 to 2020.
- Reports for fiscal years 2021–22 will be published in June 2024.
- New mining law to be presented to parliament in August 2024 to reduce discretion in investor incentives and strengthen mining title framework.
- Capacity building underway to legally compel beneficial ownership disclosure in the extractive industry.

### Incorporating climate considerations in macroeconomic policies
- Climate vulnerability:
  - Suriname is carbon negative but dominant economic activity is in low-lying coastal area; future climate events could disrupt activity and cause substantial long-term damage.
- Institutional and planning actions:
  - Establishing an environmental authority by transforming NIMOS with legislative mandate to assess public and private capital projects using the environmental impact assessment framework.
  - Created a repository, Dondru, for climate change mitigation and adaptation information.
  - MoFP and NIMOS collaboration critical to incorporate climate issues into fiscal framework.
  - Public investment management manual with guidelines for economic appraisal of investment projects including climate change and flood risk management considerations, and sectoral guidelines for key ministries, to be published by December 2024.
- Climate finance:
  - Exploring selling carbon credits under the 2015 UN Paris Agreement scheme (ITMO).
  - Will seek technical assistance from development partners to assess benefits and challenges, identify conservation projects, and begin approaching potential buyers—countries and private institutions.

### Statistics and data dissemination
- Commitments to improve quality and dissemination of economic data with IMF TA.
- Timeliness issues remain (long lag of annual GDP publication and lack of quarterly GDP statistics).
- General Bureau of Statistics capacity enhanced by increased budget and approved salary increase for staff.
- Efforts to improve data quality for CPI, fiscal sector statistics, and public debt data.
- Steps to publish detailed monthly CPI data including all subcomponents and to report all domestic arrears on a monthly basis.
- Work towards broadening institutional coverage of fiscal statistics to the public sector.
- Will seek technical assistance from international partners to support statistical improvements.

### Program monitoring
- Economic plan to be monitored through reviews, quantitative and continuous performance criteria, indicative targets, and structural benchmarks.
- Quantitative performance criteria presented in Table 1; standard non-quantitative continuous targets in para 34 of the Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU); structural benchmarks in Table 2.
- Program quantitative targets defined in the attached TMU.

*Source: 1surea2024003-print-pdf (excerpt).*

### 3. New central government guaranteed debt (continuous ceiling) 00Met00Met00Met00Met

### 3. New central government guaranteed debt (continuous ceiling)

### Overview
- Designation: "New central government guaranteed debt (continuous ceiling)" as part of the Quantitative Performance Criteria.
- Table entries across the reporting periods in the source indicate the continuous ceiling indicator for this item is recorded as "00Met", "00Met00Met00Met", or sequences of zeros (e.g., "00000000000") depending on the reporting row.

### Compliance record (as reported in the table)
- Multiple reporting rows show the indicator recorded as:
  - "00Met00Met00Met00Met"
  - "00Met00Met00Met"
  - "00Met00Met00Met" (repeated across subsequent rows)
  - "00Met00Met00Met00Met"
  - "00Met00Met00Met00Met"
  - "00M et00Met00Met00Met" (spacing preserved as in source)
  - "00Met00Met00Met00Met"
  - "00Met00Met00Met00Met"
  - "00Met00Met00Met00Met"
  - "00Met00Met00Met00Met"
  - "00Met00Met00Met00Met"
  - "00Met00Met00Met00Met"
  - Final program-period row: "00000000000"
- The exact strings above are reproduced verbatim from the table entries for this indicator.

### Context within the Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPC) framework
- The indicator appears alongside related QPC items in the same table, including:
  - "2. New natural resource revenue-collateralized debt contracted by or on behalf of the central government and/or SOEs (continuous ceiling) (U.S. dollars)" — also recorded as "00Met" or similar zero/Met entries in corresponding rows.
  - "4. Non-accumulation of central government external debt arrears (continuous ceiling)" — likewise recorded as "00Met" or similar strings in corresponding rows.
- The item is presented in the same rows as monetary targets and indicative targets (e.g., items 5–9 and social spending), indicating it is monitored alongside monetary and fiscal performance indicators.

### Memorandum context (selected related figures from table)
- Reserve money (selected reported values from the table): "12,817 18,294 18,967 18,629 18,950 19,061 19,180 19,597 18,881"
- Gross international reserves (millions of U.S. dollar) (selected reported values): "585 968 992 979 986 1,071 848 1,139 899"
- Program exchange rate (repeated): "14.018" (reported repeatedly across rows)

*Source: Table 1. Suriname: Quantitative Performance Criteria and Indicative Targets Under the EFF, as provided in the supplied PDF content.*

### 2. Stock of VAT refunds outstanding (ceiling)722722443443163164

### 2. Stock of VAT refunds outstanding (ceiling)722722443443163164

### Memorandum items
- Reserve money 28,00430,06730,12730,31230,49030,82430,66030,82130,90931,34831,061
- Reserve money (local currency portion only) 17,57017,52417,74917,91218,06717,95018,21518,35618,42318,14218,556
- Reserve money (constant exchange rates)22,31222,43922,46322,59622,72422,87822,84422,95722,99623,08223,101
- NFA (constant exchange rates)11,07310,1979,9269,5579,02810,7798,8778,5208,02310,4627,659
- Gross international reserves (millions of U.S. dollar)1,3961,4001,3821,3561,3181,5091,3751,3491,3141,5541,356
- Usable international reserves (millions of U.S. dollar) 5/1,1621,1661,1481,1211,0841,2751,1401,1151,0801,3201,121
- Program exchange rate14.01814.01814.01814.01814.01814.01814.01814.01814.01814.01814.018

Notes (as provided)
- Source: Authorities and IMF staff calculations and projections.
- 1/ Targets as defined in the Technical Memorandum of Understanding.
- 2/ Cumulative flows from begining of the year.
- 3/ The 2020 figure is a stock as of end-June 2021.
- 4/ The 2020 figure is a stock as of end-December 2020.
- 5/ Official reserve assets excluding the PBOC swap and ring-fenced reserves. 
- 6/ Non-observance for the month February 2023
- 7/Table adjusted to incorporate cumulative flows from 2023
- end-Jun.end Sep.
- 2024

### Structural benchmarks under the EFF — Exchange rate / monetary / safeguards (selected)
- Establish competitive FX auctions for the CBvS to undertake buying/selling of FX during periods of disorderly market conditions (defined as when the intraday change in the exchange rate versus the U.S. dollar is more than 2 percent) under the agreed rule. Target date: December 2021. Status: Met. Objective: Ensure the CBvS has a mechanism to intervene in the FX market.
- Establish an electronic trading platform for inter-bank/cambio FX trading. Target date: June 2022. Status: Not met. Objective: Create a consolidated FX market.
- Publish on the CBvS's external website the FY 2020-2021 audited IFRS financial statements. Target date: June 2022. Status: Not met. Objective: Strengthen accountability and transparency, and reduce risk of misreporting.
- Develop a time-bound plan for the CBvS’s recapitalization agreed between the CBvS and the government. Target date: September 2022. Status: Not met. Objective: Protect the CBvS’s financial autonomy.
- Publish on the CBvS's external website the FY 2016 - 2018 audited financial statements. Target date: December 2021. Status: Not met; implemented with a delay in February 2022. Objective: Strengthen accountability and transparency, and reduce risk of misreporting.
- National Assembly to pass amendments ... January 2022. Status: Not met; implemented with a delay in April 2023. Objective: Strengthen the CBvS’s mandate, autonomy, governance, and accountability and transparency.
- Establish an electronic trading platform for inter-bank/cambio FX trading, with expanded scope to cover also bank/cambio trading with gold exporters. Target date: 22September 2023. Status: Not met. Objective: Create a consolidated FX market.
- Publish on the CBvS's external website the FY 2020-2021 audited IFRS financial statements. Target date: 27June 2024. Objective: Strengthen accountability and transparency, and reduce risk of misreporting.
- Publish on the CBvS's external website the FY 2022 audited IFRS financial statements. Target date: 27September 2024. Objective: Strengthen accountability and transparency, and reduce risk of misreporting.
- Develop a time-bound plan for the CBvS’s recapitalization agreed between the CBvS and the government. Target date: 29April 2024. Status: Not met. Objective: Protect the CBvS’s financial autonomy.
- Submit a legislative amendment to the Foreign Exchange Regulation 1947 to the National Assembly in consultation with Fund staff to rectify any misalignments with the amended Central bank Act 2022. Target date: 28December 2023. Status: Not met; implemented with delay in May 2024. Objective: Enable the CBvS to effectively and independently manage its official reserves and conduct foreign exchange policy.

### Structural benchmarks under the EFF — Financial sector / crisis preparedness (selected)
- Undertake full asset quality review for the two largest (by assets size) banks (drawing on the expertise of an internationally reputable specialist firm). Target date: September 2022. Status: Met. Objective: Diagnose the largest banks and potential recapitalization needs.
- Submit to the State Council the Credit Institutions Resolution Act. Target date: January 2022. Status: Not met; 'Implemented with delay in February 2023. Objective: Strengthen the CBvS's role in crisis management.
- Submit the revised Banking and Credit Supervision Act to the State Council. Target date: January 2022. Status: Not met; 'Implemented with delay in February 2023. Objective: Solidify oversight over the financial sector.
- Operationalize the Financial Stability Committee. Target date: January 2022. Status: Not met; 'Implemented with a delay in April 2022. Objective: Improve coordination on financial sector issues.
- Operationalize a Bank Resolution Unit within the CBvS. Target date: February 2022. Status: Not met; 'Implemented with a delay in April 2022. Objective: Strengthen the CBvS's role in crisis management.
- Undertake full asset quality review for the remaining banks. Target date: December 2022. Status: Not met; 'Implemented with a delay in May 2023. Objective: Diagnose the financial sector and potential recapitalization needs.
- CBvS and MoF agree on a governance framework for state-owned banks. Target date: 25December 2023. Status: Not met; implemented with delay in February. Objective: Improve governance of state-owned banks.
- CBvS to instruct the banks to incorporate the AQR results and review the recapitalization plans submitted by the banks to verify their credibility. Target date: 24October 2023. Status: Not met; implemented with delay in December. Objective: Improve strength of the financial sector.
- CBvS, in consultation with IMF, to set common equity tier one and capital adequacy ratio targets for banks and outline the corrective measures it would escalate if CET1/CAR ... Target date: 24March 2024. Status: Not met; implemented with delay in April. Objective: Improve strength of the financial sector.

### Structural benchmarks under the EFF — Fiscal and Debt (selected)
- Publish a time-bound plan to implement recommendations from technical assistance programs provided by the IMF to streamline treasury functions through the Treasury Single Account (TSA). Target date: January 2022. Status: Met. Objective: Improve governance and increase transparency.
- Develop a term of reference, with technical assistance from international partners, for hiring specialists to audit outstanding supplier arrears. Target date: January 2022. Status: Met. Objective: Improve governance and increase transparency; improve fiscal data reporting.
- Publish the financial assessment of EBS that includes its legacy liabilities. Target date: May 2022. Status: Met. Objective: Achieve full cost recovery in the electricity sector.
- Commence an audit on outstanding supplier arrears. Target date: April 2022. Status: Met: audit completed in May 2023. Objective: Improve governance and increase transparency; improve fiscal data reporting.
- Passage of laws needed to implement the VAT by the National Assembly. Target date: March 2022. Status: Not Met; implemented with a delay in August 2022. Objective: Ensure fiscal adjustment in line with program parameters.
- Publish a plan to scale back a range of tax exemptions ... aimed at raising additional revenue of 0.4 percent of GDP. Target date: March 2022. Status: Not Met; Implemented in February 2023 budget. Objective: Ensure fiscal adjustment in line with program parameters.
- Pass laws and issue relevant decrees if needed to expand the legal mandate of the debt management office (SDMO) to include the whole nonfinancial public sector. Target date: June 2022. Status: Not Met; implemented with delay in March 2023. Objective: Improve debt data reporting.
- Create a large taxpayer unit to increase taxpayer compliance. Target date: June 2022. Status: Not Met; implemented with a delay in July 2022. Objective: Improve tax administration.
- Review the social protection public expenditure and publish a time-bound strategic plan. Target date: 12December 2023. Status: Not met; implemented with delay in May 2024. Objective: Strengthen social spending.
- Establish a system to compile and maintain in a central place an up-to-date list of public entities (Institutional Table). Target date: June 2023. Status: Met. Objective: Improve fiscal data reporting.
- Enact the amended VAT Act to convert all zero-rated products ... and impose the standard 10 percent VAT rate on sales covering at least 60 percent of household consumption. Target date: 7July 2023. Status: Not Met; imlemented with a delay in September 2023. Objective: Ensure fiscal adjustment in line with program parameters.
- Publish on the EAS external website quarterly updates of the rationale for each tariff adjustment ... Target date: 7October 2023. Status: Met. Objective: Improve governance and increase transparency; improve fiscal data reporting.
- Operationalize the enacted amendment to the Personnel Act by issuing a state decree ... Target date: 7October 2023. Status: Not Met; implemented with delay in November 2023. Objective: Strenthen PFM and ensure fiscal adjustment in line with program parameters.
- Issue State Decree to provide the Minister of Finance the authority to access all bank accounts held by government entities at commercial banks. Target date: 8March 2024. Status: Not Met; implemented with delay in April 2024. Objective: Strengthen PFM.
- Publish quarterly budget execution report starting with the end June 2023 budget outturns. Target date: 8Continuous. Status: Met. Objective: Strengthen PFM.
- MoFP, SDMO, and CBvS to sign a Memorandum of Understanding detailing respective responsibilities and processes with respect to external debt payments. Target date: 8January 2024. Status: Met. Objective: Improve debt management and reporting, and avoid external debt arrears.
- Publish on the Ministry of Social Affairs and Housing’s external website a monthly report detailing the number of households or individuals covered by each program ... Target date: 14January 2024. Status: Met. Objective: Improve governance and increase transparency.
- Mandate that all tax declarations and transactions use a Fiscal Identification Number. Target date: 8June 2024. Status: Proposed to be reformulated as below. Objective: Improve tax administration.
- Mandate that all importers/exporters use a Fiscal Identification Number. Target date: 8June 2024. Status: New proposed SB. Objective: Improve tax administration.
- Implement a pilot Treasury Single Account for a limited set of ministries. Target date: 8January 2025. Objective: Strengthen PFM.
- The Budget Department will set commitment ceilings by line ministry quarterly and enforce them, including through FreeBalance. Target date: 8Continuous. Status: Not Met. Objective: Strengthen PFM and avoid new expenditure arrears.
- Fully repay domestic debt arrears. Target date: 15March 2024. Status: Not Met; implemented with delay in May 2024. Objective: Improve debt management and financial stability
- Issue a resolution to clarify that government will not be responsible for contracts agreed with line ministries that have no prior authorization from the MoF. Target date: 8April 2024. Status: Met. Objective: Strengthen PFM and avoid new expenditure arrears.
- Mandate all line ministries to report the stock of arrears to the MoF monthly. Target date: 15June 2024. Status: Met. Objective: Improve debt management and financial stability.

### Structural benchmarks under the EFF — Governance (selected)
- Ratify the United Nations Convention Against Corruption (UNCAC). Target date: January 2022. Status: Met. Objective: Reduce vulnerabilities to corruption and promote investment and growth.
- Issue an Implementation Act to amend the Anti-Corruption legal framework ... Target date: June 2022. Status: Not Met. Objective: Reduce vulnerabilities to corruption and promote investment and growth.
- Operationalize the Anti-Corruption Commission ... Target date: March 2022. Status: Not Met; implemented with a delay in May 2023. Objective: Reduce vulnerabilities to corruption and promote investment and growth.
- Amend the Anti-Corruption legal framework to criminalize acts of corruption. Target date: 30June 2024. Objective: Reduce vulnerabilities to corruption and promote investment and growth.
- Amend the Anti-Corruption legal framework to create a requirement for the income and asset declarations of politically exposed persons ... Target date: 30September 2024. Objective: Reduce vulnerabilities to corruption and promote investment and growth.

### Structural benchmarks under the EFF — Procurement and AML/CFT (selected)
- Enact a new procurement law to centralize and mandate the publication of all public procurement tenders and contract awards ... Target date: 30September 2023. Status: Not Met. Objective: Strengthen procurement efficiency.
- Amend the AML/CFT law legislation and other relevant laws and regulations to bring them into line with the FATF international AML/CFT standards. Target date: 30August 2022. Status: Not Met; implemented with a delay in November 2022. Objective: Mitigate the adverse effects of criminal economic activity and promote integrity in financial markets.

### Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU) — key points
- The TMU sets out the understanding between the Surinamese authorities and the IMF staff regarding the definition of quantitative performance criteria (QPC) and indicative targets (IT), QPC and IT adjusters and data reporting requirements for the Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
- For program purposes, unless otherwise specified, all foreign currency-related assets, liabilities, and flows will be evaluated at “program accounting exchange rates” as defined in the TMU, except for items affecting government fiscal balances, which will be measured at current exchange rates.
- U.S. dollar denominated components of the CBvS balance sheet will be valued at the official exchange rate of the Surinamese dollar to the U.S. dollar of 14.0180 set by the CBvS as of December 31, 2020.
- Cross-rates as of December 31, 2020 used for program purposes: Euro = 1.2281 U.S. dollars; Pound Sterling = 1.3600 U.S. dollars; Chinese Yuan = 0.1532 U.S. dollars; SDR = 1.4403 U.S. dollars. Official gold holdings valued at 1,892.0 U.S. dollars per fine ounce.
- Definitions provided for: central government, State-Owned Enterprises (SOE), and debt (including loans, suppliers’ credits, and leases) for program monitoring and reporting.

*Source: Authorities and IMF staff calculations and projections.*

### 6.      Under the definition of debt set out in previous paragraph, arrears, penalties, and

### 6.      Under the definition of debt set out in previous paragraph, arrears, penalties, and judicially awarded damages arising from the failure to make payment under a contractual obligation that constitutes debt are debt. Failure to make payment on an obligation that is not considered debt under this definition (e.g., payment on delivery) will not give rise to debt.

### Definitions and Debt Contracting
- Arrears, penalties, and judicially awarded damages from unpaid contractual obligations that constitute debt are classified as debt.
- Failure to pay obligations not considered debt under this definition (e.g., payment on delivery) do not create debt.
- For program purposes, a debt is considered contracted when all conditions for its entrance into effect have been met, including approval by the National Assembly.
- Contracting of credit lines with no predetermined disbursement schedules or with multiple disbursements is considered contracting of debt.
- The fiscal year is the calendar year, starting on January 1 and ending on December 31.

### A. Primary Fiscal Balance (Cash Basis) of Central Government (Floor)
- Definition: The primary fiscal balance (cash basis) of the CG is calculated as the cumulative CG interest payments minus total net borrowing requirements from the beginning of the year.
- Net borrowing requirements (NBR) are measured at official (current) exchange rates and are defined as the sum of:
  - i. The change in net CBvS credit to the CG, including changes in the government deposit position at the CBvS and excludes any accrued interest;
  - ii. The change in net credit from depository corporations, which includes changes in CG deposits and the net issuance of treasury bills, lending, and other CG securities held by commercial banks and excludes any accrued interest;
  - iii. The change in net non-bank credit to the CG, which includes net issuance of Treasury bills and other CG securities to non-banks, and other CG claims and debts vis-à-vis nonbank institutions and excludes any accrued interest;
  - iv. New external loan disbursements net of external loan amortization including repayment of external arrears;
  - v. Net sale of government assets (financial including privatization receipts).
- Definition: CG Interest payments are defined on a cash basis as interest paid on CG domestic and external debt obligations.

### Mineral Revenue (Definition and Table 1)
- Definition: Mineral revenue is the government’s tax and non-tax proceeds from state-oil company Staatsolie Suriname and from gold companies. This includes corporate tax, wage tax (including old age fund contributions), dividend tax, indirect taxes, dividends, royalties and others. Royalties from small scale gold mining are also included in mineral revenue.
- The QPC for the fiscal balance is calculated based on the projected official exchange rate. Reporting (and adjustments) will be made using the current official exchange rate.
- Table 1: Suriname: Total Mineral Revenues of CG (In SRD millions, cumulative flows from the beginning of the fiscal year)
  - End-January 2024 1,409
  - End-February 2024 2,818
  - End-March 2024 4,227
  - End-April 2024 5,499
  - End-May 2024 6,874
  - End-June 2024 9,214
  - End-July 2024 11,261
  - End-August 2024 13,015
  - End-September 2024 14,478
  - End-October 2024 15,647
  - End-November 2024 16,525
  - End-December 2024 17,110

### Reporting and Adjusters for the Primary Fiscal Balance
- Reporting: Fiscal data will be provided to the Fund with a lag of no more than six weeks after the end of the month.
- Adjusters: The floor on the cumulative primary cash balance of the CG will be adjusted:
  1. downward (upward) to the full extent that cumulative project loans are more (less) than project loans given in Table 2.
  2. upward to the extent of any rise in mineral revenue above the cumulative baseline projections given in Table 1.

### B. New Natural Resource Revenue-Collateralized Debt (Continuous Ceiling)
- Definition: The ceiling on new natural resource revenue-collateralized debt (domestic and external) contracted on a gross basis by or on behalf of the CG and/or SOEs is a continuous performance criterion. Natural resource revenue-collateralized debt involves creating a security interest, charge or lien over any natural resource, natural resource receivables, or proceeds from sale/lease of natural resources.
- Exclusions: Use of a collection account where no charge or lien is created over such account is excluded. External debt contracted due to external debt restructuring (to be agreed between the authorities and creditors) is excluded. Prefinancing arrangements against future sales of natural resources are included.
- The official exchange rate applies to all non-SRD denominated debt.
- Reporting: Data on new debt contracts will be provided to the IMF on a continuous basis to verify absence of security interests, charges, or liens over natural resources.

### C. New Central Government Guaranteed Debt (Continuous Ceiling)
- Definition: The ceiling applies to the amount of guarantees issued by the CG for debt contracted by any agency or entity outside the CG. A guarantee arises from any explicit legal or contractual obligation of CG to service a debt owed by a debtor outside the CG (payments in cash or in kind).
- The official exchange rate applies to all non-SRD denominated debt.
- Reporting: Data will be provided to the IMF on a continuous basis.

### D. Non-Accumulation of Central Government External Debt Arrears (Continuous Ceiling)
- Definition: Non-accumulation of arrears by the CG on contractual debt obligations owed to non-resident creditors is a continuous performance criterion.
- External payments arrears are defined as external debt obligations of the CG not paid within 30 days after the contractual due date, or within the contractual grace period, whichever is longer. Arrears resulting from nonpayment where rescheduling/restructuring is being sought in good faith are excluded.
- The stock of external arrears will be calculated based on the schedule reported by MoFP and reconciled with creditors; adjustments incorporated as they occur.
- Reporting: Data will be provided to the IMF on a continuous basis.

### E. Gross Credit to Central Government by the CBvS (Continuous Ceiling)
- Definition: Ceiling on change in gross credit provided to the CG by CBvS (including any provision of overdrafts) is a continuous performance criterion, measured from end-June 2021 for 2021 and from beginning of the year for 2022.
- Exclusions: Coins and notes issued by the MoFP and claims on IMF related to the valuation of IMF account no 1 and 2. Stock of gross credit valued at fair value and program exchange rates. Changes in stock of the COVID-19 Fund approved by Parliament in 2020 constitute gross credit. Rolling over CG principal and interest payments due to the CBvS does not constitute gross credit.
- Reporting: Data provided to the IMF on a continuous basis.

### F. Net International Reserves (NIR) of the CBvS (Floor)
- Definition: Floor applies to cumulative flows from the beginning of the year (end-December level of NIR of the previous year). NIR defined as U.S. dollar value of difference between reserve assets and reserve liabilities.
- Reserve assets include: (i) foreign exchange (foreign currency cash, deposits with foreign correspondents, holdings of foreign securities), (ii) monetary gold, (iii) IMF reserve position, and (iv) SDR holdings.
- Exclusions from foreign assets: assets pledged, collateralized, or otherwise encumbered; CBvS claims on resident banks and nonbanks; claims in foreign exchange from derivatives vis-à-vis domestic currency; precious metals other than monetary gold; assets in nonconvertible currencies; illiquid swaps; any reserve assets not readily available for intervention.
- Reserve liabilities include: (i) all short-term foreign liabilities of the CBvS vis-à-vis nonresidents denominated in convertible foreign currencies with an original maturity of one year or less; (ii) all outstanding credit from the IMF resulting from purchases; (iii) the nominal value of all derivative positions of the CBvS implying sale of foreign currency or other reserve assets; and (iv) all foreign exchange liabilities of the CBvS to resident entities, excluding foreign exchange liabilities to the CG.
- Reporting: CBvS provides foreign reserves and foreign exchange cash flow data to the Fund once a week. Table 3 statistics provided monthly in both official and program exchange rates with a lag of no more than two weeks after the end of the month. Quarterly NIR data submitted by CBvS to the IMF will be audited; auditors’ reports submitted no later than 60 days after each test date. Government total foreign exchange mineral revenue data provided weekly. Inflows of government’s FX mineral revenue to CBvS monitored as part of weekly CBvS purchases and sales.
- Adjusters: NIR targets will be adjusted:
  1. upward (downward) by the full amount of the cumulative surplus (shortfall) in program loan disbursements from IFIs relative to baseline projections in Table 2.
  2. upward (downward) by the full amount of the cumulative surplus (shortfall) in loans from official bilateral and private creditors relative to Table 2.
  3. upward (downward) by the full amount of the cumulative surplus (shortfall) in the sum of government’s total mineral and other revenues received in foreign exchange that are transferred to the CG account at the CBvS relative to baseline projections in Table 4.
  4. downward (upward) by the full amount of the cumulative surplus (shortfall) in CG and CBvS’s debt service payments in foreign exchange relative to baseline projections in Table 5.
  5. downward by the amount of FX sales by the CBvS insofar as these sales occur via competitive auctions in response to intraday depreciation in the exchange rate versus the U.S. dollar that is more than 2 percent and are less than USD 2 million per day. This adjustor is capped at USD 20 million per quarter.
- Table: Cumulative FX Debt Service Payments by the Central Government and CBvS (In USD millions, cumulative flows from the beginning of the fiscal year) — two series presented:
  - Series A:
    - End-June 2023 46
    - End-July 2023 67
    - End-August 2023 89
    - End-September 2023 117
    - End-October 2023 135
    - End-November 2023 153
    - End-December 2023 170
    - End-January 2024 19
    - End-February 2024 38
    - End-March 2024 65
    - End-April 2024 80
    - End-May 2024 102
    - End-June 2024 112
    - End-July 2024 143
    - End-August 2024 158
    - End-September 2024 184
    - End-October 2024 200
    - End-November 2024 215
    - End-December 2024 224
  - Series B:
    - End-June 2023 76
    - End-July 2023 92
    - End-August 2023 112
    - End-September 2023 121
    - End-October 2023 136
    - End-November 2023 163
    - End-December 2023 204
    - End-January 2024 21
    - End-February 2024 54
    - End-March 2024 59
    - End-April 2024 82
    - End-May 2024 117
    - End-June 2024 180
    - End-July 2024 214
    - End-August 2024 240
    - End-September 2024 256
    - End-October 2024 279
    - End-November 2024 316
    - End-December 2024 372

### G. Net Domestic Assets (NDA) of the CBvS
- Definitions: Ceiling applies to cumulative flows from the beginning of the year. NDA = reserve money − net foreign assets (NFA).
- Items in foreign currencies valued at fair value and program exchange rates.
- Stock of NDA amounted to SRD 8,777.1 million as of December 31, 2020 (Table 6).
- Reserve money at program exchange rates is defined as currency in circulation; commercial banks’ deposits in correspondent accounts at the CBvS; statutory cash reserve requirements against prescribed liabilities in SRDs and foreign currency held by commercial banks at the CBvS; other commercial banks’ deposits at the CBvS in national and foreign currency; other demand deposits in national and foreign currency; and gold certificates.
- Exclusions: Central bank certificates issued to retail investors as part of open market operations to absorb liquidity; balances in deposit auctions; commercial banks’ term deposits at the CBvS.
- As of December 31, 2020, reserve money amounted to SRD 12,816.6 million.
- Value of NFA at program exchange rates is difference between foreign assets and foreign liabilities.
- Foreign assets include foreign exchange, monetary gold, IMF reserve position, and SDR holdings.
- Foreign liabilities include liabilities of the CBvS vis-à-vis nonresidents denominated in foreign currencies; all outstanding credit from the IMF resulting from purchases under arrangements and SDR allocation; nominal value of all derivative positions implying sale of foreign currency or reserve assets.
- NFA amounted to SRD 4,039.5 million as of December 31, 2020 (Table 6).
- Reporting: Data provided to the IMF with a lag of no more than two weeks after the end of the month. Quarterly NDA data reviewed by CBvS external auditors; reports submitted no later than 60 days after each test date.
- Adjusters: NDA targets will be adjusted consistent with NIR adjusters:
  1. downward (upward) by full amount of cumulative surplus (shortfall) in program loan disbursements from IFIs relative to Table 2.
  2. downward (upward) by full amount of cumulative surplus (shortfall) in loans from official bilateral and private creditors relative to Table 2.
  3. downward (upward) by full amount of cumulative surplus (shortfall) in sum of government’s total mineral and other revenues received in foreign exchange that are transferred to the CG account at the CBvS relative to Table 4.
  4. upward (downward) by full amount of cumulative surplus (shortfall) in CG and CBvS’s debt service payments in foreign exchange relative to Table 5.
  5. Downward by full amount of CBvS’ cumulative purchases of foreign exchange from the market relative to baseline projections in Table 7.
- For adjusters, flows will be valued at program exchange rates.

### H. Direct Purchases/Sales of FX by CBvS and/or Central Government from/to SOEs and Private Sector (Continuous Ceiling)
- Definition: Ceiling on direct purchases/sales of FX by CBvS and/or central government from/to SOEs and private sector is a continuous performance criterion.
- Exclusions from this ceiling:
  - Purchases/sales of FX with banks and cambios undertaken through fixed allotment/variable price auctions.
  - Sales of FX to (former) CBvS employees for children’s overseas study and livelihood purposes, overseas pension transfers, overseas salary transfers and overseas travel expenses up to a maximum amount of USD 100,000 per quarter or equivalent.
  - Purchases of EUR banknotes from banks and cambios in exchange for USD banknotes.
  - Sales of FX by mineral companies associated with these companies’ tax or non-tax obligations to the central government.
- Table 7: Suriname: FX Purchases by CBvS (Baseline Projection) — Cumulative flows from the beginning of the fiscal year (In USD millions)
  - End-June 2023 0
  - End-July 2023 0
  - End-August 2023 0
  - End-September 2023 0
  - End-October 2023 0
  - End-November 2023 0
  - End-December 2023 0
  - End-January 2024 0
  - End-February 2024 0
  - End-March 2024 0
  - End-April 2024 0
  - End-May 2024 0
  - End-June 2024 0
  - End-July 2024 0
  - End-August 2024 0
  - End-September 2024 0
  - End-October 2024 0
  - End-November 2024 0
  - End-December 2024 0

*Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2024/english/1surea2024003-print-pdf.pdf*

### 31.      Reporting: Data on direct purchases/sales of FX by the CBvS and/or central government

### 31.      Reporting: Data on direct purchases/sales of FX by the CBvS and/or central government

### Reporting of direct FX purchases/sales
- Data on direct purchases/sales of FX by the CBvS and/or central government from/to SOEs and private sector will be provided by the CBvS to the Fund daily.
- Daily reporting list (also included under Information Requirements):
  - Volumes and nominal exchange rates (inclusive of any fees, commission, or other types of charge) of foreign exchange transactions (purchases and sales) by banks and cambios.
  - Volumes and nominal exchange rates of direct purchases/sales of foreign exchange by the CBvS and/or central government from/to SOEs and private sector.
  - Official nominal exchange rates.

### I. Central Government Mineral Revenue in Local Currency (Ceiling)
- Definition:
  - The ceiling on central government mineral revenue in local currency will be assessed on cumulative basis and specified in U.S. dollars (converted at the weighted average SRD/U.S. dollar exchange rate published by the CBvS at the end of the previous working day).
  - For purposes of this performance criterion, central government mineral revenue is defined as the government’s tax and non-tax cash revenue from the state-oil company Staatsolie Suriname and from large- and small-scale gold companies.
  - This revenue includes corporate tax, indirect taxes, dividends, royalties and other mineral revenue.
  - The following mineral revenue is excluded from this definition: (i) wage taxes (including old age fund contributions); (ii) consent right fees; (iii) dividend tax; and (iv) Staatsolie Suriname’s tax and non-tax obligations to the government netted out against accounts receivable from other state-owned enterprises.
- Reporting:
  - Data on central government foreign and local currency tax and non-tax mineral revenue as defined above will be submitted on a weekly basis by revenue item, type of commodity and source counterparty (aggregated for small-scale gold companies).
  - Where the local currency mineral revenue is from a prior sale of mineral companies’ FX-denominated tax or non-tax obligations to the central government, the data will additionally include the sale transactions by date and counterparty, including the exchange rate and any margins or fees applied.
  - Data will be provided to the IMF within 3 working days of the end of each week.

### II. Other continuous performance criteria
- During the period of the Arrangement under the EFF, Suriname will not:
  - (i) impose or intensify restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions;
  - (ii) introduce or modify multiple currency practices;
  - (iii) conclude bilateral payments agreements that are inconsistent with Article VIII; and
  - (iv) impose or intensify import restrictions for balance of payments reasons.

### III. Indicative targets: Definition of variables
- J. Social Spending of Central Government (Floor)
  - Definition:
    - Social spending of central government includes all the spending of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Public Housing (Ministerie van Sociale Zaken en Volkshuisvesting) on social protection programs.
    - The floor on CG social spending is cumulative from the beginning of the year and is defined as the sum of spending on the following cash transfer programs:
      - General old-age pension.
      - General child benefit.
      - Financial assistance for persons with disabilities.
      - Financial assistance for weak households.
      - Social beneficiary program.
  - Reporting:
    - Data will be provided to the IMF with a lag of no more than six weeks after the end of the quarter.
- K. Stock of Value added Tax Refunds Outstanding (Ceiling)
  - Definition:
    - The stock of value added tax (VAT) refunds outstanding will be assessed as total cumulative VAT refund claims which have not yet been paid or declined by the Tax Authority of Suriname (Belastingdienst Suriname).
    - The stock is cumulative from the beginning of 2023.
    - A claim for a refund will be assessed as existing once a credit return is filed.
    - The stock of VAT refunds outstanding will exclude interest payable on approved delayed refunds and refunds due to non-VAT registrants.
    - A VAT refund claim is deemed to be paid if settled against outstanding payable VAT returns or if settled against non-VAT revenue arrears.
  - Reporting:
    - Data will be provided to the IMF with a lag of no more than six weeks after the end of the quarter.

### IV. Information requirements
- GFSM 2014 / Public Sector Debt Guide definitions:
  - Total gross debt covers all liabilities that are debt instruments.
  - A debt instrument is defined as a financial claim that requires payment(s) of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditor at a date, or dates, in the future.
  - The following instruments are considered debt instruments:
    - Special drawing rights (SDRs);
    - Currency and deposits;
    - Debt securities;
    - Loans;
    - Insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes; and
    - Other accounts payable.
  - Equity and investment fund shares and financial derivatives and employee stock options are not considered debt instruments.
- Budgetary Central government (BCG) debt includes:
  - Debt Securities including short term liquidity instruments;
  - Loans (including overdraft in bank accounts);
  - Other Accounts Payables.
- Netting and consolidation:
  - Any liabilities issued by the BCG, held as an asset by other entity of the BCG should be netted out.
  - Since the consolidation is done at the level of BCG, central bank lending to the government is included in the stock of BCG debt.

### Reporting frequency and specific data items
- Daily/Semi-weekly (timing: daily or within one week after the reporting period as specified)
  - Official nominal exchange rates.
  - Volumes and nominal exchange rates (inclusive of any fees, commission, or other types of charge) of foreign exchange transactions (purchases and sales) by banks and cambios.
  - Volumes and nominal exchange rates of direct purchases/sales of foreign exchange by the CBvS and/or central government from/to SOEs and private sector.
  - Monitoring Template IMF (no. 25 41) - Deposits including largest 5 depositors in accordance with the Enhanced Supervision framework, within one week after the reporting period.
  - Monitoring Template IMF (no. 26) – Liquid assets held by banks in accordance with the Enhanced Supervision framework, within one week after the reporting period.
  - Liquidity Coverage SRD template (no. 30) in accordance with the Enhanced Supervision framework, within one week after the reporting period.
  - Net Foreign Currency Position (Net Open Position) template (no. 27) for banks in accordance with the Enhanced Supervision framework. For cambios this ratio will also be reported, in both cases within one week after the reporting period.
- Weekly/bi-weekly (timing: within two weeks after the reporting period unless otherwise stated)
  - CBvS liquidity assistance to financial institutions, by institution.
  - Reports on large exposures by bank that are equal or exceed 10 percent of Tier 1 Capital (template no. 28) in accordance with the Enhanced Supervision framework, within two weeks after the reporting period.
  - Large deposits that are equal or exceed 10 percent of Tier 1 Capital (template no. 29) in accordance with the Enhanced Supervision framework, within two weeks after the reporting period.
  - Liquidity forecast and realization (templates no. 15, 17 and 19) in accordance with the Enhanced Supervision framework, within two weeks after the reporting period.
  - Liquidity stress testing (templates no. 10-13) in accordance with the Enhanced Supervision framework, within two weeks after the reporting period.
  - Lending availability in SRD and USD (templates no. 21 and 22) in accordance with the Enhanced Supervision framework, within two weeks after the reporting period.
  - Table on monitoring of banking sector benchmarks in accordance with the Enhanced Supervision framework on a bi-weekly basis, within two weeks after the reporting period.
  - CBvS purchases and sales of foreign currency (FX cash flow table). FX auction amounts, auction bids, highest and lowest prices, cut-off and weighted average prices, FX rate before the auction.
  - Information on auction results for open market operations no later than two days after the auctions, including on: instrument type, total open market operations auction volume, settlement date, expiration date, the number of total bids, total amount of bids, the number of total allocated bids, total amount of allocated bids, the minimum bid rate, the cut-off interest rate, the highest bid rate, and the weighted average allotted interest rate.
  - Weekly submission of daily transactions and rates for the following: interest rates on domestic debt securities by maturity; required and excess reserves of the banking sector in local and foreign currency; total liquidity assistance to banks through normal lending operations, standing facilities, and ELA. Interest rates on OMOs, standing facilities, and ELA by maturity.
  - Weekly submission of daily mineral tax and non-tax revenue of major commodity companies and small gold miners, by revenue item and type of commodity (and separately for large-scale gold companies and small-scale gold miners). Data is to be provided within 3 working days of the end of each week.
- Monthly (reporting lags as specified)
  - CG operations (revenues and expenditure) data in GFS format within six weeks of the end of the month.
  - CG detailed revenues data from the tax office by revenue category, including: (i) direct tax by item, (ii) indirect tax by item, and (iii) non-tax revenues by item within six weeks of the end of the month.
  - Number of public civil servants and total wage bill by Ministry within six weeks of the end of the month.
  - CG authorized spending data by Ministry within four weeks of the end of the month.
  - CG subsidies data by Ministry and programs within six weeks of the end of the month.
  - CG balance from the financing side by sources and by currency, with a lag of no more than six weeks after the end of the month.
  - CG domestic and external debt stock, including by: (i) creditor, (ii) currency, (iii) instrument; (iv) collateralized by natural resources revenue; and (v) guaranteed. The reporting lag should not exceed four weeks after the end of the month.
  - Amortization payments of CG and government guaranteed debt by creditor, instrument, and currency. In the case of issuance of government guaranteed debt, the name of the guaranteed individual/institution should be provided. The reporting lag should not exceed four weeks after the end of the month.
  - Interest payments and fees on CG and government guaranteed debt by creditor, instrument, and currency. The reporting lag should not exceed four weeks after the end of the month.
  - Stock of CG expenditure arrears, separately including payment of existing arrears and creation of new domestic arrears including the currency of the arrears. The reporting lag should not exceed four weeks after the end of the month.
  - Stock of CG domestic and external debt arrears, including the currency of arrears. The reporting lag should not exceed two weeks after the end of the month.
  - New debt contracts (official or private) entered into by the CG and/or SOEs. The reporting lag should not exceed two weeks after the end of the month.
  - Holdings of domestic T-notes and T-bills (SRD-denominated and foreign currency-denominated) by investor, maturity, and currency. The reporting lag should not exceed four weeks after the end of the month.
  - Legal measures that affect the revenue of the CG, such as tax rates, import tariffs, and exemptions. The reporting lag should not exceed six weeks after the end of the month.
  - Balance sheet of the CBvS within two weeks of end of the month.
  - A summary of the monetary survey of the banking system (including CBvS and deposit-taking institutions). This information should be received with a lag of no more than six weeks after the end of the month.
  - Income statement of the CBvS on a cash and accrual basis, with a lag of no more than three weeks from the end of the month.
  - Projections of CBvS purchases and sales of foreign currency (FX cash flow table, 12 months ahead).
  - Information on interconnectedness of the financial sector and related party lending (templates no. 6 and 37) in accordance with the Enhanced Supervision framework, within four weeks after the end of the month.
  - The deposit funding structure of the banks (template no.8) in accordance with the Enhanced Supervision framework, within four weeks after the end of the month.
  - Information on measures taken by the banks in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic (templates no.33-35), within four weeks after the end of the month.
  - Banks’ claims on the government and State-owned Entities with breakdown by type (debt types, loan types including the gross amount of overdrafts) within four weeks after the end of the month.
  - The Monthly Returns as reported to the CBvS, within four weeks of the end of the month.
  - A written update on the progress of the Asset Quality Review (until the review has been concluded) that includes any issues encountered by CBvS and/or their advisor and any remedial actions taken.
  - Data on foreign reserve assets and foreign reserve liabilities for NIR target purposes (Table 2) evaluated at both official and program exchange rates, within two weeks of the end of the month.
  - Data on NDA, NFA, and reserve money (Table 4) evaluated at both official and program exchange rates, within two weeks of the end of the months.
  - Data on foreign reserve assets split into ring-fenced and non-ring-fenced assets evaluation at official exchange rates, within two weeks of the end of the months.
  - Consumer price index, including by sub-components of the CPI index within four weeks after the end of the month.
  - Cash flow of EBS showing government transfers to cover the gap between the average electricity tariff and EBS recovery cost within eight weeks after the end of the month.
  - Electricity average tariff, total electricity consumption volume, total billing and amount collected (in SRD) to be provided by consumption categories (household, commercial, and industrial) and by consumption volume. This information should be received with a lag of no more than eight weeks after the end of the month.
  - Electricity costs including: (i) production costs: fuel costs, Staatsolie electricity costs, hydropower costs, separately, (ii) other operational costs: personnel costs and financing costs, and (iii) investment costs. This information should be received with a lag of no more than eight weeks after the end of the month.
  - EBS committed and executed payments to Staatsolie for purchases of fuel and electricity. This information should be received with a lag of no more than eight weeks after the end of the month.
- Quarterly
  - Detailed balance of payments data within 60 days after the end of the quarter.
  - Detailed International Investment Position data within two months after the end of the quarter.
  - Projections regarding banks’ balance sheets and profit and loss statement (template no. 2 and 3) in accordance with the Enhanced Supervision framework, within four4 weeks after the end of the quarter.
  - Liquidity forecast and realization (templates no. 14, 16 and 18) in accordance with the Enhanced Supervision framework, within four weeks after the end of the quarter.
  - Progress reports of the banks on inspection items identified by CBvS, within six weeks after the end of the quarter.
  - A full set of quarterly Financial Soundness Indicators (FSI) calculated by the CBvS within 60 days after the end of the quarter.
  - CG spending on social protection programs, by program, as defined for the indicative target on social spending. The reporting lag should not exceed six weeks after the end of the quarter.
- Annual
  - Financial statements of EBS within six months of year end.
  - Nominal GDP and real GDP within eight months of year end.
  - Labor market statistics (including the unemployment rate and labor participation ratio) within twelve months of the year end.

*Source: 1surea2024003-print-pdf - 31.      Reporting: Data on direct purchases/sales of FX by the CBvS and/or central government*

### 2.1 percent in 2023. The 2024 growth forecast is based on continued increases in investments

### 1surea2024003-print-pdf - 2.1 percent in 2023. The 2024 growth forecast is based on continued increases in investments

### Growth outlook
- Real GDP growth was 2.1 percent in 2023.
- 2024 growth forecast is based on continued increases in investments from both the public and private sectors.
- 2023 primary drivers of growth:
  - Increased expenditures in the non-mining sector, particularly in services and public sector investments.
  - A reduction in gold mining output limited overall economic expansion.
- Upcoming Final Investment Decision (FID) from TotalEnergies to exploit offshore oil and gas deposits expected to generate significant upstream and midstream investments (e.g., transportation, storage services, real estate).
- Gold production expected to increase given record-high demand and prices.

### Inflation
- Inflation decelerated steadily to 32.6 percent by the end of 2023, surpassing expectations.
- Removal of utilities subsidies contributed to persistently high inflation, while stringent fiscal and monetary policies, stable exchange rates, and dissipation of international price shocks supported strong disinflation since mid-2023.
- 2024 outlook: inflation expected to continue downward trend, dropping below 20 percent by year-end, despite ongoing increases in utility tariffs.
- Additional statistics:
  - Average inflation in 2023 was above 50 percent.
  - Annualized average of the six months up to April this year has been only 17 percent.

### Fiscal, social, and tax policies
- Fiscal consolidation response:
  - Primary balance fell short of the target by one percent of GDP due to revenue shortfalls and overspending in Q1 2024.
  - Ministry of Finance and Planning (MoFP) issued guidelines to restrict individual line ministry expenditures and match these with revenues.
  - Enforcement of tax compliance has recently lifted tax revenues.
  - New hirings significantly constrained to contain the wage bill.
  - Public sector reform halted payment of wages and salaries for more than two thousand non-registered and structurally absent civil servants.
- Civil servant compensation adjustment:
  - As of January 2024, civil servants received an additional monthly nominal amount of SRD 1.000 (or less than USD 30) that will be paid until June 2024.
- Electricity subsidy phasing-out and tariff adjustments:
  - February 2024: 20 percent adjustment in the exchange rate used for costs calculations, bringing it to market values.
  - Exchange rate and oil price to be adjusted quarterly in the electricity tariff model.
  - Electricity subsidy to households was increased by 40 percent in March 2024, followed by four subsequent bi-monthly 7 percent hikes.
  - For businesses, initial 40 percent increase in electricity tariffs applies from May 2024, leading to cost-recovery tariffs by June 2024.
  - EBS payment obligations to State Oil Company:
    - Payment amounted to approximately SRD 440 million a month for the first three months of 2024 (settled through dividends from the State Oil Company).
    - Reduced to SRD 130 million for five months starting in May.
    - Reduced to zero in the last quarter this year.
- Social spending distribution and efficiency measures:
  - Ministry of Social Affairs improving administration and distribution mechanisms to meet the indicative floor for social spending.
  - Data since March show slippages posing significant risk to the June target.
  - MoFP initiated an adjusted transfer payment approach to avoid improper payments.
  - A joint account to distribute the Purchasing Power Strengthening benefit is now monitored by both Social Affairs and Finance ministries; this approach will be expanded to the General Old-Age Pension until operationalization improves per ILO and IDB evaluations.
  - Social database being scrutinized and upgraded.
- National Social Protection Strategy (NSPS):
  - Draft NSPS presents a credible plan to strengthen the social safety network with technical support from ILO and IDB.
  - Plan expected to be approved by the Council of Ministers shortly.
- Supplier arrears and cash management:
  - MoFP engaged with CARTAC to develop by July a comprehensive supplier arrears management strategy.
  - High-frequency monitoring and cash management operations will prevent line ministries’ monthly expenditure from exceeding the monthly tax revenues envelope.
- VAT evaluation and compliance:
  - VAT revenue performance reached 98 percent of the budgeted amount for 2023.
  - Only half of registered taxpayers complied properly, per Tax Office assessment.
  - Non-compliant taxpayers and non-registered companies were reminded to register and meet obligations no later than the end of May, otherwise sanctions would be imposed.
  - Technical assistance to improve the refund process is in the pipeline.

### Debt management and sustainability
- Debt is on a downward path with progress in debt restructuring and clearing arrears.
- 2024 budget apportions approximately USD 223 million, or 5 percent of GDP, for the repayment of public debt.
- Debt restructuring milestones:
  - Restructuring with ABN AMRO bank finalized and signed in March 2024.
  - Authorities committed to promptly clear all remaining non-technical domestic debt arrears.
  - New restructured Eurobond and Value Recovery Instrument (VRI) performing well.
  - Progress on inclusion of the VRI in the Savings and Stabilization Fund Law to facilitate payout when due (requirement in restructuring agreement with Eurobondholders).
- Institutional support:
  - Suriname Debt Management Office (SDMO) to receive technical assistance to improve management capacity and migrate to a more efficient debt management system purchased from the Commonwealth Secretariat with financing from the IDB.

### Monetary and financial policies
- Tight monetary policy by CBvS has set inflation on a clearly declining path.
  - Inflation peaked at about 65 percent in the second quarter of 2023.
  - Issuance of Central Bank Certificates (CBCs) tightened liquidity further.
- Program performance and targets:
  - CBvS fell short of achieving monetary QPCs and its indicative monetary target pertaining to reserve money by end-March 2024.
  - Net domestic assets (NDA) and net international reserves (NIR) targets missed due to inadequate capture of clearance of local and foreign currency denominated domestic and supplier arrears in liquidity forecasts.
- Credit and monetary measures:
  - Temporary growth cap on local currency credit (in place until March 2024) has been discontinued as credit growth eases, currency depreciation risks recede, and inflation moderates.
  - CBvS will continue to monitor monetary developments and maintain reserve money path consistent with program targets.
- Financial sector vulnerability measures:
  - CBvS mandated all banks to submit an NPL strategy by April 2024; strategies are being evaluated for approval.
  - Bank recapitalization plans to be executed with interim targets and corrective actions.
  - Amended Banking Supervision Act and Bank Resolution Act to enhance risk-based supervision and CBvS intervention powers, especially for state-owned banks.
  - Structural benchmarks related to banking supervision expected to be met within deadlines.
  - Further reforms target insurance and pension sectors, capital markets, electronic payment systems, credit reporting, and deposit insurance, supported by technical assistance.

### Exchange rate policies
- Tighter monetary policy produced an appreciation trend in the exchange rate since Q4 2023, with three quarters of currency appreciation.
- Positive shift in market sentiment with reduced perceived risk of currency depreciation.
- Structural benchmark: operationalization of an electronic FX trading platform expected in the next few weeks as CBvS resolves technical challenges.
- IMF technical staff assessing current FX rules and regulations, and CBvS auction and trading platform for consistency with IMF’s Article VIII provisions; launch to proceed in close consultation with the IMF team.
- May 2024: authorities submitted legislative amendments of the Foreign Exchange Regulation to the State Council to rectify misalignment with the amended Central Bank Act 2022.

### Governance reforms
- Commitment to strengthen governance and transparency institutional framework.
- June 2024: Parliament set to enact amended Procurement Law to ensure centralization and transparency of procedures, publication of names of public officials involved with Government procurement, awarded entities and their beneficiary owners.
- Efforts underway to align the Anti-Corruption Law with related domestic legislation and the United Nations Convention against Corruption (UNCAC), which Suriname ratified in November 2021.

### Concluding remarks
- Program performance generally favorable, but implementation has become more challenging; political and election dynamics heighten challenges for the reform agenda.
- Authorities demonstrate strong commitment, ownership, and resolve in implementing unpopular energy subsidy reforms, public sector reforms, and sensitive procurement and anti-corruption procedures.
- Measures to increase customs compliance at borders and harbors aim at drastic improvements in duty administration and collection; other non-tax revenue sources are being scrutinized.
- Authorities continue efforts to build consensus for further reforms and institutional strengthening to manage resource abundance in the medium term and embrace the IMF-supported program as the best path to adjust the economy and prepare the country for a period of prosperity.

*Source: 1surea2024003-print-pdf - 2.1 percent in 2023. The 2024 growth forecast is based on continued increases in investments*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2024/english/1surea2024003-print-pdf.pdf_