## BURKINA FASO — THIRD REVIEW UNDER THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY ARRANGEMENT (content unit: 1bfaea2025002-source-pdf)

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### Executive summary and program status
- Executive Board completed the third review under the 48-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement approved on September 21, 2023.
- Completion enables immediate disbursement of SDR 24.08 million (about US$32.8 million), bringing total IMF financial support under the arrangement to SDR 96.32 million (about US$131.3 million).
- End-December 2024: end-December performance criteria (PCs) on the primary fiscal deficit and net domestic financing were missed by 0.6 percent of GDP each; all other PCs were met. Waivers of nonobservance of these PCs were approved.
- All continuous PCs were met. Seven out of eight structural benchmarks (SBs) were achieved; the remaining SB was implemented later as a prior action.
- Staff support: staff support the requests for waivers and the modification of the end-June 2025 quantitative PCs, and recommend completion of the third review to enable the disbursement of SDR 24.08 million (20 percent of quota, 0.1 percent of GDP).
- Authorities committed to clearing all remaining domestic arrears by end-2025.

### Recent economic developments and outlook
- Growth and inflation:
  - Real GDP growth: 2024 (Act.): 5.0 percent; 2025 (Proj.): 4.2 percent (text also shows 2025 (Proj.) 4.3 in one table—both figures are reported in source).
  - Consumer prices (annual average): 2023: 0.7; 2024 (Act.): 4.2; 2025 (Proj.): 3.0.
  - End-December 2024 year-on-year inflation: 4.9 percent (compared to 1.0 percent in December 2023).
- External sector:
  - Current account deficit: 2023: -5.0 percent of GDP; 2024 (Act.): -5.7 percent of GDP; 2025 (Proj.): -3.4 percent of GDP (table shows -3.5 for 2025 in one line; both figures reported in source).
  - Trade developments in 2024: cotton exports −15 percent; petroleum imports +15 percent; imports of intermediate and manufactured goods +10 percent; gold exports +3.3 percent (price +16 percent, volume −5 percent).
- Fiscal developments:
  - Overall fiscal deficit (including grants, commitments): 2023: -6.7 percent of GDP; 2024 (Act.): -5.8 percent of GDP.
  - 2024 outturn: revenues and grants totaled 21.9 percent of GDP; expenditure and net lending 27.7 percent of GDP.
  - Excess capital spending in late 2024 caused fiscal slippage and the missed end-2024 PCs by 0.6 percent of GDP.
  - 2025 fiscal deficit projected in range 3.3 to 4.0 percent of GDP depending on availability of external concessional financing; authorities committed to reduce overall fiscal deficit to 3 percent of GDP by the end of the ECF arrangement.
- Financing and debt:
  - 2024 domestic financing: 4.7 percent of GDP (commercial bank financing 3.7 percent of GDP; domestic non-bank financing 1.1 percent of GDP).
  - 2024 foreign financing: 1.3 percent of GDP.
  - Total public debt: 2023: 56.2 percent of GDP; 2024 (Act.): 56.9 percent of GDP.
- Staff macro view:
  - Staff support waivers and completion of the third review given the 2025 budget’s corrective measures, program track record, and strengthened fiscal governance agenda.

### Program performance, conditionality, and arrears
- Quantitative and indicative targets:
  - Three out of six indicative targets (ITs) were missed at end-December 2024 by small margins.
  - All three continuous PCs and five end-March 2025 ITs, including on the primary fiscal deficit and net domestic financing, were met; remaining four ITs missed by small margins.
- Structural benchmarks and prior actions:
  - Seven out of eight SBs met; missed SB on arrears clearance plan implemented as a prior action for the third review.
  - Other prior actions implemented: (i) sharing list of treasury deposit accounts; (ii) clearing all domestic arrears outstanding at end-2023 (CFAF 43.4 billion).
  - New SBs focus on procurement governance, revenue administration integrity, and wage bill control; GDA preliminary findings to inform an action plan to be adopted within four months from publication.
- Domestic arrears:
  - Domestic arrears (payments outstanding for more than 3 months) increased by 0.2 percent of GDP in 2024; stock increased to 0.5 percent of GDP.
  - VAT reimbursements and non-VAT arrears (reconciled): VAT reimbursements 8.1 billion FCFA (0.1 percent), Non-VAT 51.6 billion FCFA (0.4 percent); Total 59.7 billion FCFA (0.4 percent). Earlier unreconciled totals: VAT 49.0 billion FCFA (0.3 percent), Non-VAT 22.5 billion FCFA (0.2 percent); Total 71.5 billion FCFA (0.5 percent).

### Key fiscal and budget execution figures (selected exact values)
- Total Revenue and Grants (percent of GDP):
  - Initial Budget: 21.7; Revised Budget (as of Sep. 2024): 22.9; Proj. 2nd Review: 21.3; Outturn 2024: 21.9.
- Total revenue (percent of GDP): 2023: 20.4; Revised: 21.6; Proj. 2nd Review: 20.1; Outturn 2024: 20.6.
- Tax revenue (percent of GDP): 18.5; 19.3; 17.8; 18.3 (across columns as presented).
- Expenditure and Net Lending (percent of GDP): 27.2; 28.1; 26.3; 27.7.
- Investment expenditure (percent of GDP): 10.6; 11.3; 9.9; 11.4.
  - Domestically financed: 7.9; 8.1; 6.6; 8.0.
  - Externally financed: 2.7; 3.3; 3.3; 3.3.
- Primary fiscal balance (including grants, percent of GDP): 2023: -3.4; 2024 (Act.): -3.6.
- Net domestic financing (end-2024): CFAF 655.7 billion (target CFAF 572.5 billion) — Not met.
- Primary deficit including grants (end-2024): CFAF 506.1 billion (ceiling CFAF 418.9 billion) — Not met.

### Debt issuance, financing needs, and market conditions
- Treasury extended weighted average maturity of bonds from 2.7 to 3.5 years.
- Gross financing needs: 10.8 percent of GDP.
  - Rollover of short-term (< 1-year) debt maturing in 2025: 2.0 percent of GDP.
- WAEMU securities market issuances in 2024: CFAF 802 billion.
  - T-bills: 31 percent; auctioned T-Bonds: 46 percent; syndicated T-bonds: 23 percent.
- 2025 issuance plan: target gross issuance CFAF 1,185 billion with a net addition of CFAF 134 billion.
- Offers received Jan–Apr 2025 covered 116 percent of targeted amounts (compared to 107 percent in 2024).
- Yields averaging 8.7 percent in Jan–Apr 2025, higher than 8.3 percent in 2024.
- At end-2024, BFA’s securities represented 12.4 percent of the total stock of securities issued through auctions.

### Financial sector soundness (selected figures)
- Gross credit extension: increased by 15 percent in 2024 after a 23-percent drop in 2023.
- Outstanding credits decreased by 2.2 percent in 2024.
- Non-performing loans at end-June 2024: 8.4 percent of total loans.
- Capital adequacy ratio depressed to 9.4 percent (regulatory minimum 11.3 percent).
- Regional banking regulators collaborating on recapitalization plans.

### Key macroeconomic projections and indicators (selected exact values preserved)
- GDP at constant prices:
  - 2023: 3.0; 2024 (Prel. ECF 2nd Review): 4.2; 2024 (Act. ECF 2nd Review): 5.0; 2025 (Proj.): 4.3; 2026–2029: 4.2, 4.9, 4.7, 4.7, 4.7.
- Consumer prices (annual average):
  - 2023: 0.7; 2024 (Prel.): 3.6; 2024 (Act.): 4.2; 2025 (Proj.): 3.0; 2026–2029: 3.0, 2.5, 2.1, 2.0, 2.0.
- Exports (f.o.b.; valued in CFA francs):
  - 2024 (Act.): 2.0; 2025 (Proj.): 10.5; 2026–2029: 25.3, 7.8, 5.3, 4.2, 2.7.
- Imports (f.o.b.; valued in CFA francs):
  - 2024 (Act.): 4.8; 2025 (Proj.): 3.5; 2026–2029: 10.8, 6.3, 6.5, 6.4, 5.7.
- Current account (percent of GDP): 2023: -5.0; 2024 (Act.): -5.7; 2025 (Proj.): -3.5 (table) / -3.4 (text).
- Fiscal indicators (percent of GDP):
  - Current revenue: 2023: 20.6; 2024 (Act.): 20.6; 2025 (Proj.): 18.6; 2026–2029: 19.8, 20.1, 20.4, 20.8, 20.9.
  - Total expenditure and net lending: 2023: 29.0; 2024 (Act.): 27.7; 2025 (Proj.): 24.1; 2026–2029: 25.0, 24.7, 24.6, 24.9, 25.1.
  - Overall fiscal balance, incl. grants (commitments): 2023: -6.7; 2024 (Act.): -5.8; 2025 (Proj.): -4.3; 2026–2029: -4.0, -3.5, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0.
  - Total public debt: 2023: 56.2; 2024 (Act.): 56.9; 2025 (Proj.): 52.2; 2026–2029: 56.1, 55.0, 54.0, 53.0, 52.3.
  - Of which external debt: 2023: 25.9; 2024 (Act.): 25.4; 2025 (Proj.): 22.2.
  - Of which domestic debt: 2023: 30.3; 2024 (Act.): 31.6; 2025 (Proj.): 29.9.
- Memorandum items:
  - Population (2023): 23.3 million.
  - Gini Index (2021): 37.4.
  - Per capita GDP (2023): 910 USD.
  - Share of population below the poverty line (2022): 43.7%.
  - Literacy rate (2022): 34%.
  - Nominal GDP (CFAF billion): 2023: 12,328; 2024 (Act.): 14,098; 2025 (Proj.): 15,791; 2026–2029: 15,561, 16,973, 18,355, 19,755, 21,153.
  - Gold price (USD/troy ounce): 2023: 1,943; 2024 (Act.): 2,342; 2025 (Proj.): 2,387; 2026–2029: 2,608, 2,821, 2,963, 3,096, 3,198, 3,244 (table lists through 2029).

### Debt sustainability and DSA findings (selected exact values)
- Debt distress assessment: DSA indicates “low” mechanical risks for external public debt and overall public debt; staff judgement assesses risks as “moderate” due to insecurity, fiscal downside risks, and high gold-price exposure.
- Public debt (selected trajectories):
  - Total public debt (percent of GDP): 2023: 56.2; 2024 Prel. (ECF 2nd Review): 53.0; 2024 Prel. (other): 56.9; 2025: 52.2; 2026: 56.1; 2027: 55.0; 2028: 54.0; 2029: 53.0 / 52.3 (table entries vary).
- DSA assumptions (selected):
  - Gold price (USD/troy ounce): 2024: 2,387.2; 2025: 2,820.8; 2026: 2,963.0; 2027: 3,096.3.
  - Real GDP growth (percent): 2024: 5.0; 2025: 4.2; 2026: 4.9.
- Stress tests and scenarios:
  - Fiscal downside scenario and commodity shocks analyzed; staff note that primary balance shocks have largest negative impact on public debt trajectory among standardized tests.

### Policy discussions and staff recommendations
- Fiscal consolidation:
  - Authorities committed to reducing overall fiscal deficit to 3 percent of GDP by end of ECF arrangement while safeguarding poverty-reducing social spending; 2025 budget reflects corrective measures.
  - Staff support waivers and modifications and completion of third review given 2025 budget corrective measures and strengthened fiscal governance agenda.
  - Staff recommend calibrating pace of consolidation against priority spending needs and availability of concessional financing; program baseline assumes 2025 fiscal deficit objective relaxed to 4.0 percent of GDP with contingent 0.7 percent of GDP NEF adjustor.
  - Mitigating strategy: follow path consistent with an annual fiscal deficit target of 3.3 percent of GDP (Low-Case Scenario) pending external financing; identify budget contingencies; use adjustor to primary deficit ceiling linked to NEF in excess of the budgeted amount.
  - Specific measures: quarterly path for primary deficit constrained by maximum NDF capped at 3.0 percent of GDP in 2025; keep budget allocations within approved 2025 budget levels until additional concessional external financing is disbursed; save additional NEF in excess of 1.0 percent of GDP to reduce NDF further below 3.0 percent of GDP.
- Governance and transparency:
  - Strengthened fiscal governance agenda: publication of treasury deposit accounts, adoption and implementation of an arrears clearance plan, clearance of arrears outstanding at end-2023.
  - GDA findings to inform action plan to be adopted within four months of final report publication; staff proposed reformulation: publish report by end-June 2025 and adopt action plan by end-October 2025.
  - New SBs for fifth review: implement procurement audit action plan; strengthen wage bill control; strengthen governance in revenue services.
- Social protection and resilience:
  - Authorities to safeguard poverty-reducing social spending amid consolidation.
  - PAMPV expanded: five-year CFAF 112 billion plan pivoting to multifaceted support for 100,000 households, subsidized food for 200,000 poor households, broader assistance to 23,000 displaced households; CFAF 55 billion from PAMPV to expand the Unique Social Registry (RSU).
  - RSU expansion and RAMU (universal health insurance) rollout supported by partners (World Bank, WFP, UNICEF, ILO).
- Monetary and financial sector:
  - BCEAO key rates kept constant since beginning of year; regional supervisory actions to recapitalize banks with depressed capital adequacy ratio 9.4 percent (below 11.3 percent minimum).
- Energy and subsidies:
  - Energy sector reform actions and application of hydrocarbon pricing mechanism; pump prices frozen since February 2023; gains/losses and subsidies in 2024 reported (e.g., total hydrocarbons/gas/fuel subsidies: CFAF 155.29 billion).
- Treasury deposit transfers and TSA:
  - TDB created by decree March 13, 2023; transfer of public funds to TDB may affect banking sector liquidity; authorities propose phased transfers, TDB remunerates SOE term deposits at comparable rates; by March 2025 only 10 percent of SOEs’ term deposits had been transferred.

### Risks and contingency planning
- Risks tilted to the downside:
  - Domestic: security disruptions (likelihood: High; impact: High), spending pressures (High/High), rollover and interest rate risks (Medium/High), insufficient revenue collection (Medium/High), loss of public trust in reforms (Medium/High).
  - External: trade policy and investment shocks (High/Medium), sovereign debt distress (High/High), deepening geoeconomic fragmentation (High/High), extreme climate events (High/High).
- Program response and contingency:
  - Use budget contingencies, prioritize spending, seek concessional financing, and re-prioritize capital spending to protect social spending and prevent arrears.
  - Staff emphasize continued monitoring, stress testing, and reliance on donor financing (World Bank, AfDB, OPEC Fund) and WAEMU pooled reserves if needed.

### Financing assurances, burden sharing, and partner support (selected figures)
- Burden sharing (CFAF billions):
  - Total Projected Budget Support: 2024: 75.7; 2025: 103.4; 2026: 103.7; 2027: 113.9; Total: 396.6 (100.00 percent).
  - IMF ECF: 2024: 38.8; 2025: 39.9; 2026: 40.0; 2027: 50.1; Total: 168.9 (42.57 percent).
  - Other Donors (including IDA): 2024: 36.9; 2025: 63.5; 2026: 63.7; 2027: 63.7; Total: 227.8 (57.43 percent).
- Cumulative financing gap CFAF 321.0 billion during 2025–27:
  - CFAF 190.9 billion expected from other development partners.
  - IMF would finance remaining CFAF 130.1 billion (134.3 percent of quota), about 40.5 percent of the BOP need.
- World Bank disbursed about US$78 million so far under HCPP, with another US$22 million expected around June 2025; World Bank confirmed management-level financial assurances for US$100 million for the 12-month period after the ECF Third Review board meeting.
- OPEC Fund to disburse additional funds from its US$30 million envelope.

### Social spending and outcomes (selected exact values)
- Social spending comparators (percent of GDP):
  - Education spending: 5.4 percent (Burkina Faso) vs 4 percent (LIDCs) and 3.9 percent (WAEMU).
  - Health spending: 3 percent (Burkina Faso) vs 1.4 percent (WAEMU) and 2.2 percent (LIDCs).
  - Social assistance spending: 1.4 percent (Burkina Faso) vs 0.9 percent (LIDCs) and 0.5 percent (WAEMU).
- IT on social spending: indicative floor on current social spending of 1.9 percent of GDP (program includes an indicative floor).
- PAMPV:
  - Five-year CFAF 112 billion plan; CFAF 55 billion to expand RSU.
  - Target: support 100,000 households (multiple interventions), subsidized food to 200,000 poor households, assistance to 23,000 displaced households.
- RSU coverage as of February 1, 2025:
  - 75 municipalities covered (21 urban, 54 rural); 209,000 poor and vulnerable IDP households registered.
  - Poor and vulnerable households registered at end-June 2024: 277,220 households (1,742,463 individuals).

### Program monitoring, review schedule, and data obligations
- Completion of third review enables fourth disbursement under ECF: SDR 24.08 million, 0.1 percent of GDP.
- Future reviews: six-monthly QPCs and ITs; authorities requested approval of modified QPCs for end-June 2025.
- TMU date: June 4, 2025; defines QPCs, ITs, SBs, and reporting requirements.
- Key reporting deadlines and data submissions to IMF specified (e.g., TOFE monthly/quarterly within 4–7 weeks; exhaustive list of treasury deposit accounts quarterly within 7 weeks; other fiscal and monetary data with specified frequencies and deadlines).

### Annex highlights (risk matrix, external sector assessment, TSA, DSA)
- Risk Assessment Matrix (as of February 20, 2025): external and domestic risks classified with likelihoods and impacts; many shocks rated “High” likelihood with “High” expected impacts (selected items: Trade Policy and Investment Shocks; Sovereign Debt Distress; Extreme Climate Events; Security Disruptions; Spending Pressures).
- External Sector Assessment:
  - 2024 external position: moderately weaker than implied by fundamentals.
  - 2024 current account deficit widened to 5.7 percent of GDP despite higher gold export values.
  - REER overvaluation estimated at 5.8 percent at end-2024 (EBA-Lite) and 2.1 percent by REER model.
  - Capital and financial account net inflows: 6.2 percent of GDP in 2024.
- Annex on TSA and TDB:
  - TDB created March 13, 2023; aims to consolidate public funds and support TSA; transfers could affect bank liquidity; mitigating measures and phased transfers under discussion.
- DSA key findings:
  - Current judgement: risks of external and overall public debt distress are “moderate.”
  - CI = 2.86 (debt-carrying capacity = ‘Medium’).
  - Stress tests show sensitivity to primary balance and export shocks; staff judgment applies upward risk given security and gold dependence.

### Selected operational and sectoral implementation notes
- Energy sector: tripartite performance contracts with SONABHY and SONABEL; energy sector TA finalized April 2025; structural benchmarks on energy reform due end-June 2025.
- Public procurement audits: audit of five largest contracts underway; value-for-money report and action plan to feed SBs for fourth and fifth reviews.
- Anti-money laundering (AML): 35 out of 37 AML actions fully or largely implemented; remaining relate to targeted financial sanctions.
- Public investments and PPPs: Nominal value of PPPs contracted in 2024: CFAF 154.623 billion (50 MW biomass plant CFAF 120.030 billion; e-PASSPORT CFAF 19.725 billion; biometric consular cards CFAF 14.598 billion).
- Human capital and social measures (selected):
  - Recruitment of 203 researchers/teacher–researchers; scholarships/loans/aid to 93,831 students; subsidies for 9,250 computers; training of 12,352 apprentices.
  - Macroeconomic framework 2025 (authorities): growth projection 6.0 percent; nominal GDP CFAF 14,858.6 billion; inflation 2.7 percent; current account deficit as percentage of GDP 2.0 percent (authorities’ projection).

*Source: IMF staff report for the Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for Burkina Faso (June 5, 2025).*

### 0.6 percent of GDP, the 2025 budget includes adequate corrective measures. On this basis,

### BURKINA FASO — THIRD REVIEW UNDER THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY ARRANGEMENT

### Executive summary and program status
- The Executive Board completed the third review under the 48-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement approved on September 21, 2023.  
- The completion enables immediate disbursement of SDR 24.08 million (about US$32.8 million), bringing total IMF financial support under the arrangement to SDR 96.32 million (about US$131.3 million).  
- Due to fiscal pressures in late 2024, end-December performance criteria (PCs) on the primary fiscal deficit and net domestic financing were missed by 0.6 percent of GDP; all other PCs were met. Waivers of nonobservance of these performance criteria were approved.  
- All continuous performance criteria were met. Seven out of eight structural benchmarks (SBs) were achieved; the remaining SB was implemented later as a prior action.  
- Staff support: staff support the requests for waivers and the modification of the end-June 2025 quantitative PCs, and recommend completion of the third review to enable the disbursement of SDR 24.08 million (20 percent of quota, 0.1 percent of GDP).  
- Authorities committed to clearing all remaining domestic arrears by end-2025.

### Recent economic developments and outlook
- Growth and inflation:
  - Real GDP growth is estimated at 5.0 percent in 2024.
  - Real GDP growth is projected to average 4.2 percent in 2025.
  - Inflation (consumer prices, annual average) increased from 0.7 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in 2024 and is projected to ease to 3.0 percent in 2025 amid moderating food prices.
- External sector:
  - The current account deficit rose from 5.0 percent of GDP in 2023 to 5.7 percent in 2024 but is expected to narrow to 3.4 percent in 2025 due to record-high gold prices.
  - Trade developments: a 15-percent drop in cotton exports, a 15-percent rise in petroleum imports, and a 10-percent rise in imports of intermediate and manufactured goods affected the CA in 2024. A 3.3-percent rise in gold exports (higher prices, 5-percent drop in volume) mitigated pressures.
- Fiscal developments:
  - Overall fiscal deficit (including grants, commitments) narrowed from -6.7 percent of GDP in 2023 to -5.8 percent of GDP in 2024.
  - The 2024 fiscal outturn: revenues and grants totaled 21.9 percent of GDP (0.6 percent of GDP higher than expected); expenditure and net lending reached 27.7 percent of GDP (1.4 percent of GDP more than estimated).
  - Excess capital spending in late 2024 caused a fiscal slippage and missed end-2024 PCs on the primary fiscal deficit and net domestic financing by 0.6 percent of GDP.
  - Fiscal policy is expected to be tightened considerably in 2025; the overall fiscal deficit is projected in the 3.3 to 4.0 percent of GDP range in 2025 depending on availability of external concessional financing.
- Financing and debt:
  - Government financed the 2024 deficit mostly via the regional bond market and domestic financing: domestic financing amounted to 4.7 percent of GDP (commercial bank financing 3.7 percent of GDP; domestic non-bank financing 1.1 percent of GDP).
  - Foreign financing amounted to 1.3 percent of GDP in 2024.
  - Total public debt increased from 56.2 percent of GDP in 2023 to 56.9 percent of GDP in 2024.
- Risks:
  - Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside due to terrorist threats and security-related developments.
  - Trade policy turbulences (e.g., in the United States) are expected to have a marginal impact given the United States is not a major trading partner.

### Program performance and structural reforms
- Performance criteria and targets:
  - Three out of six indicative targets (ITs) were missed at end-December 2024 by small margins.
  - All three continuous PCs and five end-March 2025 ITs, including on the primary fiscal deficit and net domestic financing, were met; the remaining four ITs were missed by small margins.
- Structural reforms and prior actions:
  - Authorities met seven out of eight SBs.
  - The missed SB on preparation of the clearance plan for domestic arrears was implemented as a prior action for the third review.
  - Two other prior actions implemented: (i) sharing a list of treasury deposit accounts; (ii) clearing all domestic arrears outstanding at end-2023.
  - Three new SBs under the program aim to:
    - strengthen governance in public procurement;
    - uphold integrity in revenue administration;
    - increase control over the public wage bill.
  - The IMF’s Governance Diagnostic Assessment (GDA) preliminary findings informed measures; the GDA report is being finalized and authorities intend to publish the final report in coming weeks and adopt, within four months from publication, an action plan reflecting its key recommendations.
  - Structural conditionality for the fifth review strengthened with benchmarks on implementing the procurement audit action plan, strengthening wage bill control, and governance in revenue services.

### Key quantitative projections and indicators (selected, exact values preserved)
- Growth and prices:
  - GDP at constant prices: 2023: 3.0; 2024 (Prel. ECF 2nd Review): 4.2; 2024 (Act. ECF 2nd Review): 5.0; 2025 (Proj.): 4.3; 2026–2029 (Projections): 4.2, 4.9, 4.7, 4.7, 4.7.
  - Consumer prices (annual average): 2023: 0.7; 2024 (Prel.): 3.6; 2024 (Act.): 4.2; 2025 (Proj.): 3.0; 2026–2029: 3.0, 2.5, 2.1, 2.0, 2.0.
- External sector:
  - Exports (f.o.b.; valued in CFA francs): 2024 (Act.): 2.0; 2025 (Proj.): 10.5; 2026–2029: 25.3, 7.8, 5.3, 4.2, 2.7.
  - Imports (f.o.b.; valued in CFA francs): 2024 (Act.): 4.8; 2025 (Proj.): 3.5; 2026–2029: 10.8, 6.3, 6.5, 6.4, 5.7.
  - Current account (percent of GDP): 2023: -5.0; 2024 (Act.): -5.7; 2025 (Proj.): -3.5 (Table shows -3.5 for 2025 in one line, -3.4 referenced elsewhere as expected to narrow to 3.4 percent in 2025).
- Fiscal indicators (percent of GDP):
  - Current revenue: 2023: 20.6; 2024 (Act.): 20.6; 2025 (Proj.): 18.6; 2026–2029: 19.8, 20.1, 20.4, 20.8, 20.9.
  - Total expenditure and net lending: 2023: 29.0; 2024 (Act.): 27.7; 2025 (Proj.): 24.1; 2026–2029: 25.0, 24.7, 24.6, 24.9, 25.1.
  - Overall fiscal balance, incl. grants (commitments): 2023: -6.7; 2024 (Act.): -5.8; 2025 (Proj.): -4.3; 2026–2029: -4.0, -3.5, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0.
  - Total public debt: 2023: 56.2; 2024 (Act.): 56.9; 2025 (Proj.): 52.2; 2026–2029: 56.1, 55.0, 54.0, 53.0, 52.3.
  - Of which external debt: 2023: 25.9; 2024 (Act.): 25.4; 2025 (Proj.): 22.2.
  - Of which domestic debt: 2023: 30.3; 2024 (Act.): 31.6; 2025 (Proj.): 29.9.
- Memorandum items:
  - Population (2023): 23.3 million.
  - Gini Index (2021): 37.4.
  - Per capita GDP (2023): 910 USD.
  - Share of population below the poverty line (2022): 43.7%.
  - Literacy rate (2022): 34%.
  - Nominal GDP (CFAF billion): 2023: 12,328; 2024 (Act.): 14,098; 2025 (Proj.): 15,791; 2026–2029: 15,561, 16,973, 18,355, 19,755, 21,153.
  - Gold price (USD/troy ounce): 2023: 1,943; 2024 (Act.): 2,342; 2025 (Proj.): 2,387; 2026–2029: 2,608, 2,821, 2,963, 3,096, 3,198, 3,244 (table lists through 2029).

### Policy discussions and recommendations (staff view)
- Fiscal consolidation:
  - Authorities committed to reducing the overall fiscal deficit to three percent of GDP by the end of the ECF arrangement while safeguarding fiscal space for poverty-reducing social spending; this commitment is reflected in the 2025 budget and end-March fiscal performance.
  - Staff view: given the 2025 budget's corrective measures, the broader reform track record, and strengthened fiscal governance agenda, staff support waivers and modifications and the third review completion.
- Governance and transparency:
  - Strengthened fiscal governance agenda: publication of treasury deposit accounts, adoption and implementation of an arrears clearance plan, clearance of arrears outstanding at end-2023.
  - GDA findings will inform an action plan to be adopted within four months of publication.
  - New structural benchmarks for the fifth review strengthen procurement governance, wage bill control, and revenue administration integrity.
- Social protection and resilience:
  - Authorities remain focused on safeguarding poverty-reducing social spending amid fiscal consolidation.
- Other program modalities:
  - Staff welcome the authorities’ decision to clear all remaining domestic arrears by end-2025.
  - Structural conditionality for the fifth review strengthened with added benchmarks linked to GDA and procurement audit action plans.

*Source: IMF staff report for the Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for Burkina Faso (June 5, 2025).*

### 7.5 percent in 2023 to 8.3 percent in 2024, compared with 6.1 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively,

### BURKINA FASO

### Fiscal outcomes and budget execution
- Total Revenue and Grants: Initial Budget 21.7; Revised Budget (as of Sep. 2024) 22.9; Proj. 2nd Review 21.3; Outturn 21.9 (percent of GDP).
- Total revenue: 20.4; 21.6; 20.1; 20.6 (percent of GDP).
- Tax revenue: 18.5; 19.3; 17.8; 18.3 (percent of GDP).
- Nontax revenue: 2.0; 2.3; 2.3; 2.3 (percent of GDP).
- Grants: 1.3; 1.3; 1.3; 1.3 (percent of GDP).
- Expenditure and Net Lending: 27.2; 28.1; 26.3; 27.7 (percent of GDP).
- Current expenditure: 16.6; 16.8; 16.5; 16.3 (percent of GDP).
- Wages and salaries: 8.5; 8.5; 8.4; 8.3 (percent of GDP).
- Goods and services: 2.3; 2.3; 2.3; 2.2 (percent of GDP).
- Interest payments: 2.1; 2.1; 2.0; 2.2 (percent of GDP).
- Current transfers: 3.8; 3.8; 3.8; 3.6 (percent of GDP).
- Investment expenditure: 10.6; 11.3; 9.9; 11.4 (percent of GDP).
  - Domestically financed: 7.9; 8.1; 6.6; 8.0 (percent of GDP).
  - Externally financed: 2.7; 3.3; 3.3; 3.3 (percent of GDP).
- Net lending: -0.1; -0.1; -0.1; 0.0 (percent of GDP).
- Overall Balance: -5.4; -5.2; -5.0; -5.8 (percent of GDP).
- Primary Fiscal balance (including grants): -3.4; -3.2; -2.9; -3.6 (percent of GDP).
- Assessment note: Authorities missed end-December 2024 quantitative PCs on the primary fiscal deficit and net domestic financing by 0.6 percent of GDP each.

### Debt issuance, financing needs, and market conditions
- Treasury extended weighted average maturity of bonds from 2.7 to 3.5 years.
- Gross financing needs: 10.8 percent of GDP.
  - Rollover of short-term (< 1-year) debt maturing in 2025: 2.0 percent of GDP.
- WAEMU securities market issuances in 2024: CFAF 802 billion.
  - T-bills: 31 percent; auctioned T-Bonds: 46 percent; syndicated T-bonds: 23 percent.
- 2025 issuance plan: target gross issuance CFAF 1,185 billion with a net addition of CFAF 134 billion.
- Offers received in January–April 2025 covered 116 percent of targeted amounts (compared to 107 percent in 2024).
- Yields: averaging 8.7 percent in January–April 2025, higher than 8.3 percent in 2024 as a whole.
- At end-2024, BFA’s securities represented 12.4 percent of the total stock of securities issued through auctions.

### Financial sector soundness
- Gross credit extension increased by 15 percent in 2024 after a 23-percent drop in 2023.
- Outstanding credits decreased by 2.2 percent in 2024.
- Non-performing loans at end-June 2024: 8.4 percent of total loans.
- Capital adequacy ratio depressed to 9.4 percent, below the regulatory minimum of 11.3 percent.
- Regional banking regulators collaborating with affected banks on recapitalization plans.
- Government arrears’ clearance expected to improve bank loan portfolio performance.

### Program performance and conditionality
- End-December 2024: authorities met the QPC on the amount of debt contracted and guaranteed and all three continuous PCs; missed PCs on the primary fiscal deficit and net domestic financing by 0.6 percent of GDP each.
- Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU) inconsistencies: TMU excluded foreign-financed capital spending from primary fiscal deficit while program table did not; clarification led to TMU amendment.
- The assessment of the net domestic financing QPC includes a 0.7-ppt of GDP draw on government cash accounts consolidated in the Treasury Deposit Bank; TMU amended accordingly.
- Structural benchmarks: authorities met seven out of eight SBs through end-2024; missed SB on adoption of arrears’ clearance strategy, which became a prior action for the third review and was subsequently implemented.
- At end-March 2025, authorities met five ITs including on the primary fiscal deficit and net domestic financing; remaining four ITs missed by small margins.
- Domestic arrears (payments outstanding for more than 3 months) increased by 0.2 percent of GDP in 2024; stock increased to 0.5 percent of GDP.
- VAT refunds outstanding and non-VAT arrears figures (Text Table reconciliation):
  - VAT reimbursements: 49.0 billion FCFA; 0.3 percent of 2024 GDP.
  - Non-VAT: 22.5 billion FCFA; 0.2 percent of 2024 GDP.
  - Total: 71.5 billion FCFA; 0.5 percent of 2024 GDP.
  - After reconciliation: VAT reimbursements 8.1 billion FCFA (0.1 percent) and Non-VAT 51.6 billion FCFA (0.4 percent); Total 59.7 billion FCFA (0.4 percent).

### Structural reforms, revenue mobilization, and arrears clearance
- Authorities developed a DRM strategy for 2024–27 and operationalized it (SB for the third review).
- DRM measures include digitalization, opening of new tax offices, and taxation of online commerce.
- Authorities contained wage bill growth in 2024 to 6.7 percent, below the IT of 9.6 percent.
- Staff project nominal wage bill growth at 8.9 percent in 2025 to address staffing gaps in critical areas.
- A proposed SB conditions future wage bill growth on tax revenue performance by capping the wage bill-to-tax revenue ratio at 49.5 percent.
- Authorities cleared all audited arrears outstanding at end-2023 as a prior action for the third review and prepared/adopted an arrears’ clearance strategy aiming to eliminate all outstanding arrears by end-2025 (reducing non-bank financing by CFAF 71.5 billion).

### Outlook and risks
- Real GDP growth projected at 4.2 percent y/y in 2025; projected to converge to 4.7 percent by 2028 assuming security improvements.
- Mining expected to rebound; agriculture expected to moderate after exceptional 2024 performance.
- Inflation projected to ease to 3 percent in 2025; the BCEAO target band is 1–3 percent.
- GDP deflator projected to increase by 5.9 percent in 2025 due to a projected 18-percent increase in gold prices.
- Staff revised 2025 fiscal deficit projection to 4.0 percent of GDP (down 0.3 ppt from second review’s 4.3 percent).
- Implied fiscal tightening of 1.8 ppt of GDP relative to the looser 2024 outcome, driven by a 2.4-ppt of GDP reduction in investment spending.
- Total revenues and grants expected to decline from 21.9 percent of GDP in 2024 to 21.0 percent in 2025 due to non-recurrence of large dividends and telecommunication licensing receipts (1.4 percent of GDP in 2024).
- Staff projections and scenarios (Text Table 3, percent of GDP) for 2025:
  - 2024 Outturn: Total Revenue and Grants 21.9; Expenditure and Net Lending 27.7; Overall Balance -5.8; Primary balance -3.6.
  - Prog. 2nd Review: Total Revenue and Grants 19.8; Expenditure and Net Lending 24.1; Overall Balance -4.3; Primary balance -2.3.
  - Initial Budget: Total Revenue and Grants 21.2; Expenditure and Net Lending 24.1; Overall Balance -3.0; Primary balance -0.8.
  - Low-Case Scenario: Total Revenue and Grants 21.0; Expenditure and Net Lending 24.3; Overall Balance -3.3; Primary balance -1.1.
  - Prog. 2: Total Revenue and Grants 21.0; Expenditure and Net Lending 25.0; Overall Balance -4.0; Primary balance -1.8.
- Financing assumptions: net external financing contribution of 1.3 percent of GDP in 2025; timing uncertain.
- Mitigating strategy: follow a path consistent with an annual fiscal deficit target of 3.3 percent of GDP (Low-Case Scenario) pending disbursement of external financing; identify budget contingencies; use adjustor to primary deficit ceiling linked to NEF in excess of the budgeted amount.
- Bank financing in 2025 projections set at a level comparable to the 2024 outturn; authorities’ initial 2025 budget allocated more than half of domestic financing needs to nonbank sources without identifying them.
- Current account (CA) deficit projected to decrease to 3.4 percent of GDP in 2025 and 3.1 percent of GDP in 2026.
- Risks: insecurity, weather shocks, lower than expected fiscal revenues, gold price correction, regional liquidity shocks.
- Debt distress assessment: DSA indicates “low” risks of distress for external public debt and overall public debt; staff judgement assesses risks as “moderate” due to insecurity, fiscal downside risks, and high gold price exposure.
- Longer-term risk: risk of debt distress could rise considerably if authorities proceed with construction of a nuclear power plant (not envisaged within current ECF horizon).

### Policy discussions and recommended actions
- Calibrate pace of fiscal consolidation against priority spending needs and availability of concessional financing.
- Program baseline assumes 2025 fiscal deficit objective relaxed to 4.0 percent of GDP, with 0.7 percent of GDP contingent on NEF in excess of 0.3 percent of GDP.
- Use contingency measures to curb domestic financing and prevent arrears:
  - Quarterly path for primary deficit constrained by maximum NDF capped at 3.0 percent of GDP in 2025.
  - Around one-third of NDF expected to be raised through government securities by auction; remainder via syndicated bonds, direct commercial bank loans, and drawdown of public entities’ deposits (nearly 9 percent of GDP at end-March 2025).
  - Keep budget allocations within approved 2025 budget levels until additional concessional external financing is disbursed.
  - Save additional NEF in excess of 1.0 percent of GDP to reduce NDF further below 3.0 percent of GDP.
- Continue controlling the government wage bill while allowing targeted increases to address critical staffing gaps.
- Prioritize domestic revenue mobilization through DRM strategy implementation (digitalization, new tax offices, taxation of online commerce).
- Continue clearing domestic arrears and implement arrears’ clearance strategy, with gradual repayment guided by intermediate non-zero ceilings at end-June 2025 and end-September 2025.

*Excerpt from IMF staff report chapter on Burkina Faso (source PDF).*

### 26. The authorities plan to expand and modify the Economic Empowerment Support

### 26. The authorities plan to expand and modify the Economic Empowerment Support Program for Poor and Vulnerable Households (PAMPV)

### Expanded PAMPV: design and coverage
- Five-year CFAF 112 billion plan focused on shock-responsiveness, supporting displaced households, and promoting economic inclusion.
- Pivot from a cash transfer program to one focused on 100,000 households providing multiple interventions, including:
  - subsidized agricultural inputs,
  - microcredits,
  - support for health and education.
- Aim to provide subsidized food to 200,000 poor households.
- Aim to provide broader assistance to 23,000 displaced households.
- Implementation support from World Bank, World Food Program, and UNICEF (MEF P ¶55).
- CFAF 55 billion from PAMPV will be used to expand the Unique Social Registry (RSU).

### Social protection systems: RSU and health insurance
- Expansion of the RSU to strengthen targeting of social policies; security considerations will shape scope and pace.
- Plan to introduce a universal health insurance scheme with support from the International Labor Organization (MEFP ¶54–56).

### Governance measures related to social spending monitoring
- PAMPV will reinforce performance with respect to the IMF program conditionality on social spending.

---

### C. Advancing the Governance Agenda

### Fiscal and procurement transparency actions
- Prior action for the third review: exhaustive list of treasury deposit accounts showing balances (as of end-March 2025).
- Ongoing audit of these accounts to continue through end-June 2025; upon completion an updated definitive list will be provided with auditor’s opinion.
- Audit of public procurement (five largest contracts) is underway; outcome will lead the Ministry of Finance to adopt a time-bound action plan to address identified issues (reflected in SBs for fourth and fifth reviews).
- Authorities committed to a new multi-pronged structural benchmark (SB) to strengthen integrity in tax and customs offices for the fifth review (Table 10b and MEFP ¶43).

### IMF Governance Diagnostic Assessment (GDA)
- GDA expected to provide basis for comprehensive governance action plan.
- Publication and action plan originally expected before end-June 2025; longer production cycle delayed adoption of the action plan.
- Staff proposed reformulation of SB into two SBs:
  - publication of the report by end-June 2025;
  - adoption of the action plan by end-October 2025 (Table 10b).

### Anti-money laundering (AML) and treasury deposit transfers
- Government has fully or largely implemented 35 out of 37 AML actions; remaining measures relate to applying targeted financial sanctions to combat terrorism financing and WMD proliferation (MEFP ¶51–53).
- Efforts ongoing to transfer public sector deposits to the Treasury Deposit Bank; government consulting local banks to stage transfers to manage liquidity impacts; BCEAO stands ready to provide mitigating liquidity support against acceptable collateral (MEFP ¶40).
- Note: Recently, four officials received prison sentences from 6 to 15 years for embezzlement at the Ministry of Humanitarian Action and fines totaling CFAF 6.1 billion (US$10.1 million).

---

### D. Making the Economy More Resilient

### Climate, resilience, and capacity development
- Weather shocks and desertification major drivers of food insecurity, social discord, and economic challenges.
- IMF support includes:
  - Extensive capacity development program: agenda on resilience and climate policies; IMF TA missions on Climate-Public Investment Management Assessment (C-PIMA) and Climate Policy Diagnostics (CPD) to help formulate reform agenda and lay groundwork for supporting a future RSF request (MEFP ¶57).
  - Continued collaboration with World Bank and other partners to identify policy measures supporting long-term balance of payment stability.
  - Energy sector TA: staff finalized a TA report in April 2025 to support development of concrete energy sector reform (fourth review SB); authorities exchanged on FAD’s comments.

---

### Program modalities, financing assurances, and other issues

### Program monitoring and reviews
- Completion of the third review enables the fourth disbursement under the ECF arrangement: SDR 24.08 million, 0.1 percent of GDP (Table 7).
- Future reviews: six-monthly QPCs and ITs.
- Authorities request approval of modified QPCs for end-June 2025 (fourth review) to align program with updated fiscal policy and domestic arrears clearance over remainder of 2025.
- Revised ITs for end-June 2025 and new QPCs and ITs through end-December 2025 proposed for the fifth review (Table 9b). Table 10b contains newly proposed SBs.

### Focus of reforms (program conditionality)
- Reforms focus on:
  - improving fiscal governance (four SBs for the fourth review and two SBs for the fifth review),
  - wage bill control (one SB for the fifth review),
  - domestic revenue mobilization (one SB for the fourth review),
  - enhancing governance and AML/CFT (one SB for the fourth review),
  - energy sector (one SB for the fourth review).

### Performance criteria and arrears
- Authorities complied with standard continuous PCs (footnote 2 in Table 9a).
- Pre-HIPC legacy external arrears: US$47.1 million due to Côte d’Ivoire, and US$6.9 million to Libya (0.2 and 0.03 percent of GDP in 2024, respectively). Cote d’Ivoire and Libya consented to IMF financing under the ECF.

### Modifications and technical adjustments
- Authorities requested to eliminate reference to Food Shock Window (FSW) in SB on budget execution; staff supports request as FSW funds were spent in 2023 and use audited and reported at second review.
- TMU modified and data requirements streamlined to reflect updated program and ensure coherence between English and French versions and Table 9b.

### Burden sharing and external financing
- World Bank disbursed about US$78 million so far under Human Capital Protection Project (HCPP), with another US$22 million expected around June 2025.
- World Bank confirmed management-level financial assurances for US$100 million for the 12-month period after ECF Third Review board meeting.
- OPEC Fund for International Development will disburse additional funds from its US$30 million concessional financing envelope.
- Bilateral partners engaged on development projects and humanitarian assistance but not providing budget support; emphasize social spending and fiscal transparency.
- Program includes an indicative floor on current social spending of 1.9 percent of GDP and strong emphasis on fiscal transparency.
- Cumulative financing gap CFAF 321.0 billion during 2025–27:
  - CFAF 190.9 billion would be covered by disbursements from other development partners.
  - IMF would finance remaining CFAF 130.1 billion (134.3 percent of quota), about 40.5 percent of the BOP need.

Text Table — Burden Sharing Under the Program (CFAF billions)
- Total Projected Budget Support:
  - 2024: 75.7
  - 2025: 103.4
  - 2026: 103.7
  - 2027: 113.9
  - Total: 396.6 (100.00 percent)
- IMF ECF:
  - 2024: 38.8
  - 2025: 39.9
  - 2026: 40.0
  - 2027: 50.1
  - Total: 168.9 (42.57 percent)
- Other Donors (including IDA):
  - 2024: 36.9
  - 2025: 63.5
  - 2026: 63.7
  - 2027: 63.7
  - Total: 227.8 (57.43 percent)

### Program financing adequacy and repayment capacity
- Fund-supported ECF program remains fully financed, with firm commitments in place over 12 months after completion of the review and good prospects for remainder of program.
- Discussions with World Bank, African Development Bank, and other partners advanced to fill financing gap and catalyze further support.
- Staff project total outstanding IMF credits to peak at 309.5 percent of quota by end-2027, about 1.7 percent of GDP (Table 8).
- Total obligations to the IMF peak at 43.5 percent of quota in 2029.
- If concessional and non-concessional borrowing become unavailable, WAEMU international reserves (a common pool with no formal restrictions) would help service IMF debt.
- Program policies and authorities’ record of servicing IMF debt mitigate risks.

### Risks, safeguards, and capacity development
- GDA points to governance weaknesses; authorities agreed to address key issues and intend to finalize action plan within four months from receipt of final GDA report (SB).
- IMF safeguards assessment (2023) found BCEAO has well-established audit arrangements and strong control environment; BCEAO addressing recommendations to align its Statute with changes in the 2019 cooperation agreement with France.
- Authorities requested additional capacity development: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation and GDA follow-up activities, adding to C-PIMA and CPD.

---

### Staff appraisal and macroeconomic outlook

### Macroeconomic projections and vulnerabilities
- Staff expect real GDP growth to moderate from 5.0 percent in 2024 to 4.2 percent in 2025 as rainfall normalizes and fiscal policy tightens.
- Inflation expected to slow from 4.2 percent in 2024 to 3.0 percent in 2025.
- Current account deficit expected to narrow to 3.4 percent of GDP in 2025 due to higher gold prices.
- Risk of external and overall public debt distress remains moderate.

### Fiscal performance, corrective measures, and program support
- 2024 fiscal deficit widened to 5.8 percent of GDP, driven mainly by capital spending; 2025 budget adopted with fiscal deficit of 3.0 percent of GDP.
- Staff assessment supports a more gradual consolidation; limited relaxation of 2025 fiscal deficit goal up to 3.3 percent of GDP is supported by domestic financing conditions; further relaxation up to 4.0 percent of GDP should remain contingent on availability of projected additional concessional external financing.
- Program performance in late 2024: PCs on primary fiscal deficit and net domestic financing missed for the first time; all other PCs met. Three of six indicative targets missed by small margins; floor for social spending missed due to imprecisely defined perimeter of the IT.
- By end-March 2025: authorities met all three continuous PCs and five end-March 2025 ITs, including on primary fiscal deficit and net domestic financing; remaining four ITs missed by small margins.
- Staff supports waivers for non-observance of two PCs at end-December 2024; margin of nonobservance 0.6 percent of GDP. Authorities cleared all audited arrears outstanding at end-2023 as a prior action and committed to clear all remaining domestic arrears to zero by end-2025 under the arrears’ clearance plan.
- Authorities met seven out of eight structural benchmarks and shared an exhaustive list of treasury deposit accounts as prior action. New SBs for fifth review include:
  - implementation of action plan from procurement audit,
  - wage bill-to-tax revenue ratio reduction,
  - strengthened governance in revenue services.
- Staff supports authorities’ commitment to enhancing resilience and provided TA to craft potential reforms supporting long-term BOP-stability.
- Staff supports modification of QPCs on net domestic financing of government and the primary fiscal deficit for end-June 2025 to align QPCs with revised fiscal-deficit path.

*Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1bfaea2025002-source-pdf.pdf*

### 53.      Given the authorities’ commitment to reforms and continued satisfactory program

### Given the authorities’ commitment to reforms and continued satisfactory program performance, staff supports the completion of the Third Review under the ECF arrangement and the Financing Assurances Review.

### Macroeconomic outlook and projections
- Real GDP growth (GDP at constant prices):
  - 2023: 3.0
  - 2024 (ECF 2nd Review): 4.2
  - 2024 Prel.: 5.0
  - 2025 (Proj.): 4.3
  - 2026: 4.2
  - 2027: 4.9
  - 2028: 4.7
  - 2029: 4.7
- GDP deflator (annual change):
  - 2023: 2.0
  - 2024 (ECF 2nd Review): 7.2
  - 2024 Prel.: 8.9
  - 2025: 5.6
  - 2026: 5.9
  - 2027: 4.0
  - 2028: 3.3
  - 2029: 2.8
  - 2029 (table shows) 2.3
- Consumer prices (annual average / end of period):
  - Annual average: 2023: 0.7; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 3.6; 2024 Prel.: 4.2; 2025: 3.0; 2026: 3.0; 2027: 2.5; 2028: 2.1; 2029: 2.0
  - End of period: 2023: 1.0; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 3.4; 2024 Prel.: 4.9; 2025: 2.8; 2026: 3.0; 2027: 2.5; 2028: 2.1; 2029: 2.0
- Key cross-cutting indicators:
  - Population (2023): 23.3 million
  - Per capita GDP (2023): 910 USD
  - Share of population below the poverty line (2022): 43.7%
  - Life Expectancy (years): 60
  - Gini Index (2021): 37.4
  - Literacy rate (2022): 34%

### External sector and balance of payments
- Current account (percent of GDP):
  - 2023: -5.0
  - 2024 (ECF 2nd Review): -5.2
  - 2024 Prel.: -5.7
  - 2025: -3.5
  - 2026: -3.4
  - 2027: -3.1
  - 2028: -3.4
  - 2029: -3.7 (table 1 shows -4.4 for 2029 elsewhere)
- Balance of payments (CFAF billions, selected rows):
  - Current Account (CFAF bn): 2023 Act.: -617.0; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: -743.7; 2024 Prel.: -803.0; 2025: -528.6; 2026: -533.3; 2027: -616.1; 2028: -724.8; 2029: -925.5
  - Exports of goods (f.o.b.; CFAF bn): 2023: 3,209.1; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 3,328.7; 2024 Prel.: 3,274.0; 2025: 4,101.1; 2026: 4,419.9; 2027: 4,652.3; 2028: 4,849.5; 2029: 4,981.2
  - Imports of goods (f.o.b.; CFAF bn): 2023: -3,265.8; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: -3,312.7; 2024 Prel.: -3,423.9; 2025: -3,792.2; 2026: -4,031.2; 2027: -4,292.7; 2028: -4,567.2; 2029: -4,828.2
  - Gold exports (CFAF bn): 2023: 2,409.2; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 2,757.1; 2024 Prel.: 2,715.4; 2025: 3,506.1; 2026: 3,791.2; 2027: 4,004.6; 2028: 4,179.6; 2029: 4,282.2
- BCEAO reserves:
  - In billion USD: 2023: 15.6; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 17.8; 2024 Prel.: 22.3; 2025: 23.0; 2026: 25.0; 2027: 27.6; 2028: 30.6; 2029: 33.5
  - In months of next year's WAEMU imports: 2023: 3.5; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 3.6; 2024 Prel.: 4.6; 2025: 4.7; 2026: 4.8; 2027: 4.9; 2028: 5.1; 2029: 5.2

### Fiscal policy, revenues, expenditure, and public debt
- Central government fiscal aggregates (percent of GDP):
  - Current revenue:
    - 2023: 20.6
    - 2024 (ECF 2nd Review): 20.1
    - 2024 Prel.: 20.6
    - 2025: 18.6
    - 2026: 19.8
    - 2027: 20.1
    - 2028: 20.4
    - 2029: 20.8 / 20.9 (various table entries)
  - Tax revenue:
    - 2023: 18.2; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 17.8; 2024 Prel.: 18.3; 2025: 16.9; 2026: 18.1; 2027: 18.4; 2028: 18.8; 2029: 19.1 / 19.3
  - Total expenditure and net lending:
    - 2023: 29.0; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 26.3; 2024 Prel.: 27.7; 2025: 24.1; 2026: 25.0; 2027: 24.7; 2028: 24.6; 2029: 24.9 / 25.1
  - Overall fiscal balance, incl. grants (commitments):
    - 2023: -6.7; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: -5.0; 2024 Prel.: -5.8; 2025: -4.3; 2026: -4.0; 2027: -3.5; 2028: -3.0; 2029: -3.0
- Consolidated operations (CFAF billions, selected):
  - Nominal GDP (CFAF billion) 2024 Prel.: 14,098; 2025: 15,791; 2026: 15,561; 2027: 16,973; 2028: 18,355; 2029: 19,755; 2030 shown elsewhere.
  - Total revenue (CFAF bn): 2023: 2,543.4; 2024 Prel.: 2,877.1; 2025: 2,904.9; 2026 (Proj.): 3,104.0; 2027: 3,088.6; 2028: 3,412.0; 2029: 3,747.8
  - Total expenditure and net lending (CFAF bn): 2023: 3,578.6; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 3,768.3; 2024 Prel.: 3,899.9; 2025: 3,806.6; 2026: 3,754.3; 2027: 3,888.6; 2028: 4,199.8; 2029: 4,516.1
  - Overall balance (CFAF bn): 2023: -831.7; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: -711.6; 2024 Prel.: -816.5; 2025: -680.4; 2026: -462.5; 2027: -622.4; 2028: -594.0; 2029: -558.7
  - Primary fiscal balance (including grants, CFAF bn): 2023: -541.3; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: -418.8; 2024 Prel.: -506.1; 2025: -361.7; 2026: -118.5; 2027: -275.9; 2028: -212.9; 2029: -117.6
- Total public debt (percent of GDP):
  - 2023: 56.2
  - 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 53.0
  - 2024 Prel.: 56.9
  - 2025: 52.2
  - 2026: 56.1
  - 2027: 55.0
  - 2028: 54.0
  - 2029: 53.0 / 52.3 (table entries)
  - Notes: The 2nd review total public debt data has been retroactively adjusted to correct an exchange rate calculation error starting in 2023; the denominator (GDP) has been revised (see footnote 3).
- Debt composition (selected, 2024–26):
  - Total debt (CFAF bn, end-2024): 8,027.1 (100; 56.9 percent of GDP)
  - External debt (2024): 3,574.6 (44.5 percent of total; 25.4 percent of GDP)
  - Domestic debt (2024): 4,452.4 (55.5 percent of total; 31.6 percent of GDP)
  - Multilateral creditors (2024): 3,222.3 (40.1 percent of total; 22.9 percent of GDP)
  - IMF outstanding (2024): 339.5 (4.2 percent of total; 2.4 percent of GDP)

### External financing requirements and financing framework
- External Financing Requirements (CFAF billions, Table 6):
  - Financing Need (2023 Act.): -531.5; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: -506.9; 2024 Prel.: -559.0; 2025: -471.5; 2026: -707.3; 2027: -755.7; 2028: -812.4; 2029: -802.8; 2029 later row: -840.1
  - Financing (CFAF bn): 2023: 531.5; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 410.4; 2024 Prel.: 475.5; 2025: 403.6; 2026: 603.9; 2027: 652.0; 2028: 698.5; 2029: 739.0; 2029 later: 776.3
  - Financing Gap (before IMF and donors): 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 96.6; 2024 Prel.: 83.6; 2025: 75.7; 2026: 103.4; 2027: 103.7; 2028: 113.9; 2029: 63.7; 2029 later: 63.7
  - IMF Financing (prospective): 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 38.9; 2024 Prel.: 38.6; 2025: 38.8; 2026: 39.9; 2027: 40.0; 2028: 50.1; 2029: 0.0; 2029 later: 0.0
  - Other Donors (including IDA): 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 57.6; 2024 Prel.: 45.0; 2025: 36.9; 2026: 63.5; 2027: 63.7; 2028: 63.7; 2029: 63.7
  - Residual Financing Gap (after IMF and Donor Financing): 0.0 for all years shown
- Actual external borrowing, Jan–Dec 2024 (Table 12):
  - Volume of new debt in 2024 (USD million): 791.6 (PV of new debt in 2024 (program purposes): 478.7)
  - Concessional debt (USD mn): 491.5 (62.0 percent of new debt); PV: 190.6 (40.0 percent)
  - Non-concessional debt (USD mn): 300.0 (38.0 percent); PV: 288.1 (60.0 percent)
  - Uses of debt financing (USD mn): Infrastructure: 599.2 (76.0 percent); Other: 192.3 (24.3 percent)
  - Memorandum indicative projections: 2025: 196.6 / 148.8; 2026: 214.9 / 136.3

### Monetary and financial sector
- Monetary aggregates (CFAF billions, selected):
  - Net foreign assets: 2023: 1,627.7; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 1,779.9; 2024 Prel.: 2,073.5; 2025: 2,122.3; 2026: 2,175.3; 2027: 2,166.1
  - Net domestic assets: 2023: 4,087.0; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 5,069.9; 2024 Prel.: 4,106.9; 2025: 4,450.4; 2026: 4,976.2; 2027: 5,544.4
  - Credit to private sector (CFAF bn): 2023: 3,893.0; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 4,404.8; 2024 Prel.: 3,807.9; 2025: 3,906.8; 2026: 4,226.1; 2027: 4,575.5
  - Total Broad Money Liabilities (CFAF bn): 2023: 5,714.7; 2024 ECF 2nd Review: 6,849.8; 2024 Prel.: 6,180.4; 2025: 6,572.7; 2026: 7,151.5; 2027: 7,710.5
- Financial soundness indicators (selected, percent):
  - Reg. capital to risk-weighted assets: Dec-21: 13.7; Dec-22: 14.1; Jun-23: 14.7; Dec-23: 14.2; Jun-24: 9.4
  - Gross NPLs / Total loans: Dec-21: 7.4; Dec-22: 5.6; Jun-23: 6.3; Dec-23: 7.4; Jun-24: 8.4
  - Loans to deposits: Dec-21: 71.3; Dec-22: 81.9; Jun-23: 84.8; Dec-23: 85.3; Jun-24: 82.3
  - Liquid assets / total assets: Dec-21: 18.7; Dec-22: 21.2; Jun-23: 22.4; Dec-23: 22.9; Jun-24: 21.7

### Program implementation, conditionality, and structural benchmarks
- IMF program status:
  - Staff supports completion of the Third Review under the ECF arrangement and the Financing Assurances Review given authorities’ commitment to reforms and continued satisfactory program performance.
- ECF disbursement schedule (Table 7, SDR amounts and availability):
  - SDR 24.08 million (20.0 percent of quota) — 21-Sep-23 — Executive Board Approval of a new arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility
  - SDR 24.08 million (20.0) — 31-Mar-24 — Observance of continuous and end-December 2023 performance criteria, and completion of the first review
  - SDR 24.08 million (20.0) — 30-Sep-24 — Observance of continuous and end-June 2024 performance criteria, and completion of the second review
  - SDR 24.08 million (20.0) — 31-Mar-25 — Observance of continuous and end-December 2024 performance criteria, and completion of the third review
  - SDR 24.08 million (20.0) — 30-Sep-25 — Observance of continuous and end-June 2025 performance criteria, and completion of the fourth review
  - SDR 24.08 million (20.0) — 31-Mar-26 — Observance of continuous and end-December 2025 performance criteria, and completion of the fifth review
  - SDR 24.08 million (20.0) — 30-Sep-26 — Observance of continuous and end-June 2026 performance criteria, and completion of the sixth review
  - SDR 30.1 million (25.0) — 31-Mar-27 — Observance of continuous and end-December 2026 performance criteria, and completion of the seventh review
  - SDR 30.1 million (25.0) — 31-Aug-27 — Observance of continuous and end-June 2027 performance criteria, and completion of the eighth review
  - Total: SDR 228.76 million (190.0 percent of quota)
- Quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets (selected):
  - Ceiling on net domestic financing of the government (cumulative from beginning of year, CFAF bn): program and actual statuses reported across test dates; examples:
    - Program (Mar./Sept. indicative): 286.3 / 429.4; Prel. status: 219.9 / 359.4; 2024 Dec. program: 572.5 (Not met in some instances)
  - Ceiling on the amount of external debt contracted or guaranteed by the government (PV, CFAF bn): 410.0 (met at multiple test dates)
  - Ceiling on the primary fiscal deficit including grants (cumulative, CFAF bn): examples show program and actual such as 209.5 met; other dates Not met (see Table 9a)
  - Indicative target: Floor on total government revenue (cumulative, CFAF bn): e.g., 1,314.3 / 1,417.3 Met; 2,723.5 / 2,904.9 Met; some March/Sept instances Not met (see Table 9a)
- Structural benchmarks and prior actions (selected completion and status):
  - Third review prior actions (met):
    - Clear audited arrears amounting to CFAF 43.4 billion at end-December 2023 — Met on May 28, 2025.
    - Share exhaustive list of Treasury Deposit Accounts as of March 2025 — Met on May 22, 2025.
    - Prepare and adopt a strategy for clearing government’s arrears — Met on May 22, 2025.
  - Prior structural benchmarks met for transparency and revenue mobilization (timing and met dates shown for various items, e.g., adoption of strategic plan for revenue mobilization 2024–27 — End-December 2024 Met).
  - Continuous structural benchmarks met (examples):
    - Do not grant any new wage agreement (except security sector) that could push wage bill beyond 45 percent of tax revenues by 2027 — Met.
    - Publish information on beneficial owners of entities awarded public procurement contracts addressing food insecurity — Met (published weekly in the Revue des marchés publics).
    - Publish annual/quarterly budget execution reports on Ministry website — Met.
  - Planned structural benchmarks (forthcoming):
    - Put in place a beneficial ownership registry accessible to government authorities and financial institutions — End-June 2025.
    - Present concrete energy sector reform to rationalize energy subsidies and improve efficiency — End-June 2025.
    - Publish final IMF Governance Diagnostic Assessment (GDA) mission report — End-June 2025.
    - Adopt time-bound action plan to implement priority GDA recommendations — End-October 2025.
    - Share value-for-money audit report of five largest public procurement contracts — End-June 2025.
    - Adopt action plan to implement key procurement audit recommendations — End-October 2025.
    - Additional governance and wage-bill control benchmarks through End-December 2025.

### Key program-supporting facts and implementation notes
- Staff supports completion of the Third Review and Financing Assurances Review given authorities’ commitment to reforms and continued satisfactory program performance.
- Projected IMF-related debt service and outstanding credit trajectory (Table 8, selected):
  - Fund obligations (principal, millions of SDRs): 2024: 16.3; 2025: 32.5; 2026: 40.4; 2027: 41.2; 2028: 40.9; 2029: 52.4; thereafter declining to 0.0 by 2038.
  - Outstanding IMF credit (millions of SDRs): 2024: 330.2; 2025: 345.9; 2026: 353.7; 2027: 372.6; 2028: 331.7; 2029: 279.3; 2038: 0.0.
  - Net use of IMF credit (millions of SDRs): 2024: 31.9; 2025: 15.7; 2026: 7.8; 2027: 19.0; 2028: -40.9; 2029: -52.4.
- Memorandum macro items (Table 8):
  - Nominal GDP (CFAF billions): 2024 Prel.: 14,097.7; 2025: 15,560.8; 2026: 16,972.8; 2027: 18,355.4; 2028: 19,754.9; 2029: 21,152.5
  - Exports of goods and services (CFAF bn): 2024 Prel.: 3,704.9; 2025: 4,576.8; 2026: 4,938.7; 2027: 5,213.4; 2028: 5,453.4; 2029: 5,627.8
  - Government revenue (CFAF bn): 2024 Prel.: 2,904.9; 2025: 3,088.6; 2026: 3,412.0; 2027: 3,747.8; 2028: 4,100.3; 2029: 4,424.5

*Source: IMF staff estimates and projections; Burkinabé authorities (content unit: 1bfaea2025002-source-pdf).*

### Annex I. Risk Assessment Matrix

### Annex I. Risk Assessment Matrix

### External Risks: likelihood, impact, and policy responses
- Trade Policy and Investment Shocks
  - Likelihood: High
  - Expected Impact if Realized: Medium
  - Key channels: higher trade barriers or sanctions reduce external trade, disrupt FDI and supply chains, trigger further U.S. dollar appreciation, tighter financial conditions, and higher inflation.
  - Expected manifestations: Drop in export volume and investments from lower global demand and FDI; deterioration in fiscal balance from subsidies on energy and food prices.
  - Possible Policy Response: Sectoral reforms to stimulate investment; rationalize food and energy price subsidies; seek concessional financing.
- Sovereign Debt Distress
  - Likelihood: High
  - Expected Impact if Realized: High
  - Key channels: higher interest rates, stronger U.S. dollar, shrinking development aid, sovereign-bank feedback, capital outflows, rising risk premia, loss of market access, abrupt expenditure cuts, lower growth in highly indebted countries.
  - Expected manifestations: Lower public investments and social spendings, higher unemployment, lower production, fiscal balance deterioration.
  - Possible Policy Response: Fiscal consolidation to create fiscal space; reform financial sector; seek concessional emergency financing.
- Regional Conflicts
  - Likelihood: Medium
  - Expected Impact if Realized: High
  - Key channels: intensification of conflicts (e.g., Middle East, Ukraine, Sahel, East Africa) or terrorism disrupt trade in energy and food, tourism, supply chains, remittances, FDI and financial flows, payment systems, and increase refugee flows.
  - Expected manifestations: Higher food, fertilizer and energy prices; higher subsidy spending and deterioration of the fiscal balance.
  - Possible Policy Response: Create fiscal space; re-prioritize spending to address food insecurity; seek budget support and concessional financing.
- Commodity Price Volatility
  - Likelihood: Medium
  - Expected Impact if Realized: High
  - Key channels: supply and demand volatility (conflicts, trade restrictions, OPEC+ decisions, AE energy policies, green transition) increasing commodity price volatility, external and fiscal pressures, social discontent, economic instability.
  - Expected manifestations: Higher oil prices deteriorate the fiscal balance if fuel subsidies are maintained.
  - Possible Policy Response: Activate the fuel price mechanism to reduce subsidies to preserve fiscal space; pursue energy sector reforms.
- Deepening Geoeconomic Fragmentation
  - Likelihood: High
  - Expected Impact if Realized: High
  - Key channels: persistent conflicts, inward-oriented policies, protectionism, weaker international cooperation, labor mobility curbs, fracturing technological and payments systems.
  - Expected manifestations: Higher input costs, hindered green transition, lower trade and potential growth; challenges for export diversification and higher import prices if global supply is disrupted and lower FDI.
  - Possible Policy Response: Implement reforms to improve competitiveness; diversify exports; pursue efforts to promote regional trade.
- Extreme Climate Events
  - Likelihood: High
  - Expected Impact if Realized: High
  - Key channels: rising temperatures causing loss of lives, severe infrastructure damage, supply disruptions, lower growth, financial instability.
  - Expected manifestations: Lower agricultural output and exports; food insecurity and rising energy prices; rising poverty and internally displaced people.
  - Possible Policy Response: Re-prioritize spending to address food emergency; seek concessional financing to invest in infrastructure to enhance resilience to climate-related shocks.

### Domestic Risks: likelihood, impact, and policy responses
- Security Disruptions
  - Likelihood: High
  - Expected Impact if Realized: High
  - Key channels: intensification of terrorist attacks generating social discontent and political instability.
  - Expected manifestations: Adverse impact on activity, revenues and FDI; risk of higher fiscal deficits and financing needs.
  - Possible Policy Response: Re-prioritize spending to address social emergencies; implement social and financial inclusion; seek support from the international community.
- Spending Pressures
  - Likelihood: High
  - Expected Impact if Realized: High
  - Key channels: pressures for higher spending on wages, energy subsidies and security.
  - Expected manifestations: Crowding out of investment spending; pressures on fiscal deficit targets and prices.
  - Possible Policy Response: Contain the wage bill; reform energy subsidies; intensify efforts to mobilize revenues.
- Rollover and Interest Rate Risks
  - Likelihood: Medium
  - Expected Impact if Realized: High
  - Key channels: higher interest rates, lack of regional bond market access.
  - Expected manifestations: Pressures on fiscal deficit targets and prices; possible accumulation of domestic arrears.
  - Possible Policy Response: Accelerate fiscal adjustment; prioritize spending; seek concessional financial support from bilateral/multilateral partners.
- WAEMU Exit
  - Likelihood: Low
  - Expected Impact if Realized: High
  - Key channels: a deliberate exit could cause financing challenges and macroeconomic policy turmoil.
  - Expected manifestations: Adverse impact on activity, revenues and FDI; risk of higher fiscal deficits and financing needs; loss of access to regional bank financing.
  - Possible Policy Response: Clear communication of a continued commitment to WAEMU.
- Insufficient Revenue Collection
  - Likelihood: Medium
  - Expected Impact if Realized: High
  - Key channels: delays in revenue mobilization.
  - Expected manifestations: Reduced fiscal space and risk of higher fiscal deficits and financing needs.
  - Possible Policy Response: Pursue tax policy reforms, optimize current spending, re-prioritize public investment, identify contingencies to facilitate course correction.
- Loss of Public Trust in Reforms
  - Likelihood: Medium
  - Expected Impact if Realized: High
  - Key channels: reforms lead to social discontent and political instability.
  - Expected manifestations: Reduced fiscal space and risk of higher fiscal deficits and financing needs.
  - Possible Policy Response: Clear communication and early engagement in fostering public trust in reforms.

*As of February 20, 2025. The relative likelihood: “low” = probability below 10 percent, “medium” = between 10 and 30 percent, “high” = between 30 and 50 percent.*

---

### Annex II. External Sector Assessment

### Overall assessment and outlook
- Overall Assessment: The external position of Burkina Faso in 2024 is estimated to have been moderately weaker than the level implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.
- 2024 drivers:
  - The 2024 current account deficit widened relative to 2023 despite higher gold exports in value terms due to gold price increases.
  - Gold production and export volumes fell sharply in 2023, and further in 2024.
  - The current account deficit was exacerbated by a sharp increase in imports of petroleum products and intermediate goods, primarily driven by an increase in public investment spending.
- 2025–2026 outlook:
  - The current account deficit is expected to narrow below historically reported levels due to new mines starting operation and record-high global prices of gold.
  - Cotton output and exports are expected to rebound in 2025 and stabilize in 2026 despite expected decreases in cotton prices.
  - In the medium term, the current account is expected to gradually reach its medium-term fundamentals as gold and cotton production and exports increase in line with an expected stabilization in the security situation, and fiscal consolidation and structural reforms take place.
- Potential Policy Responses: Further fiscal consolidation; avoid excessive increases in the wage bill; strengthen fiscal discipline by reining in capital spending; provide space for priority spending on social security, defense, and poverty alleviation; governance reform and structural policies to support private sector growth, export growth, and import substitution; encourage foreign investment.

### Foreign assets and liabilities: position and trajectory
- Background: NIIP assessment is based on 2023 data.
- Data for 2023 (Percent of GDP)
  - NIIP: -42.39
  - Gross Assets: 65.9
  - Debt Assets: 24.99
  - Gross Liabilities: 107.97
  - Debt Liabilities: 31.6
- Drivers: Drop in NIIP reflected large current account deficits driven by rapid increase in imports from 22.4 percent of GDP in 2021 to 26.5 percent of GDP in 2023; growth of gross liabilities outpaced gross assets.
- Asset composition: Gross external assets mostly portfolio investments (27.7 percent of GDP) particularly debt instruments; other investments with Fund record for SDR allocations (32.6).
- 2024 projection: 27.5-percent increase in NFA projected for 2024 reflects an 18-point increase in claims (mainly from the CB’s Other foreign assets) and a 9-point decrease in liabilities (mainly ODC liabilities).
- Assessment: NIIP assessed as sustainable under the baseline though negative; external public debt around 24 percent of GDP in 2023; external debt financed entirely by official creditors.
- Risks: Slower than projected fiscal consolidation, reduced donor support, deterioration in the terms of trade, slowdown in real GDP growth.
- Debt risk: External debt assessed as sustainable, and at medium risk of debt distress as part of the 2025 DSA.

### Current account: 2023–2024 and projections
- Data and movements:
  - Current account deficit estimated to have widened from 5 percent of GDP in 2023 to 5.7 percent of GDP in 2024.
  - Value of gold exports rose by 3.3 percent in 2024 despite volume decreasing by 5 percent.
  - Cotton exports dropped by 15 percent due to delayed growing season.
  - Petroleum product imports rose by 15 percent.
  - Imports of intermediate and manufactured goods increased by 10 percent, primarily driven by significant public investment spending.
- 2025 and beyond:
  - Current account anticipated to narrow more rapidly than usual, driven by new mining operations such as the Kiaka mine, increased gold production and exports, and expected increases in international gold prices.
  - Full implementation of the IMF program expected to bring fiscal consolidation, governance, and structural reforms.
- Assessment:
  - Current account gap estimated at -1.2 percent of GDP (adjusted for business cycle and security situation).
  - External position in 2024 assessed as moderately weaker than level implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.

### Real Exchange Rate (REER)
- Background:
  - Burkina Faso is part of the WAEMU currency union; CFA franc pegged at 655.96 units to the euro.
  - REER appreciated slightly in 2024 due to strengthening of the Euro against third currencies.
  - REER started appreciating gradually and consistently from 2020; 2024 average REER 12 percent higher than 2019 level.
- Assessment:
  - EBA-Lite Current Account model suggests a REER overvaluation of 5.8 percent at end-2024.
  - The REER model suggests an overvaluation of 2.1 percent during the same period.
  - Staff assesses the overvaluation is largely a result of the rise in the price of gold, which accounts for about 3/4 of total exports.

### Capital and financial accounts: flows and policy measures
- Background:
  - Burkina Faso lacks access to external financial markets outside the WAEMU regional market; capital and financial account flows comprise funding from donors and official creditors, bond issuances on the regional market, and FDI.
- 2024 flows:
  - Capital and financial account featured net inflows of 6.2 percent of GDP in 2024.
  - Project grants and loans around 2.6 percent of GDP.
  - Portfolio investment inflows around 3.9 percent of GDP reflect sovereign bond issuances on the WAEMU regional financial market.
  - Private capital investments supported the financial account (mining such as Kiaka gold mine, manufacturing, services).
- Outlook and risks:
  - Outlook for 2025 remains uncertain; capital and financial net inflows expected to moderate.
  - Support from development partners and official financial flows uncertain.
  - Tightening global financial conditions and Burkina Faso’s volatile security situation make regional market financing conditions tight; ability to raise funds may be limited by liquidity constraints and uncertainty.
- Assessment:
  - High interest rates and rising risk premia on Burkinabe debt make for a challenging environment.
  - Fund credit and donor support are essential to meet financing needs.
  - Continuing fiscal consolidation efforts will help reduce borrowing needs over the medium term.

### FX intervention and reserves level
- Background:
  - WAEMU pooled reserves recovered from about 9.5 trillion CFAF (3.3 months of prospective imports) at end-2023 to about 13.5 trillion in 2024 (about 4.5 months of prospective imports).
  - Reserves projected to further recover to about 12 percent of union GDP (5.5 months of imports) by 2026.
  - Burkina Faso’s net foreign assets have remained negative since June 2022; staff estimates indicate foreign assets increased over 2023–2024 while foreign liabilities diminished.
- Assessment:
  - ARA metric for credit constrained economies based on 2023 data estimates an adequate range for reserves of 4.4 to 6.4 months of prospective imports for WAEMU (lower end calibrated on fragile states, higher end calibrated on non-resource rich countries).
  - Reserves in 2024 (4.5 months of imports) are slightly above the estimated lower bound.
  - Medium-term reserves projection (6.4 months of prospective imports by 2029) would reach the higher bound.
  - Growth-friendly fiscal consolidation, tighter monetary policy, and structural reforms are key to sustain reserve accumulation.

*Prepared by IMF staff. All 2024 figures are based on staff estimates; the latest available actual figures are for 2023.*

---

### Annex III. Social Spending and Outcomes

### Spending levels and program focus
- Context:
  - Spending levels on education, health and social assistance in Burkina Faso are above peers, while outcomes are mixed.
  - The ECF supported program aims to gain fiscal space for priority spending, including on social protection.
  - The IT on social spending focuses on domestically financed current spending (excluding the wage bill) that contribute to poverty reduction.
  - Current social spending has either increased or been maintained in recent years despite needs for additional military spending.
  - Capital spending in social areas declined in 2023 and 2024 but is expected to rebound in 2025.
  - Maintaining rising current social spending while focusing on key capital investments will be critical.
- Key fiscal comparators (percent of GDP):
  - Education spending: 5.4 percent of GDP (Burkina Faso) vs 4 percent (LIDCs) and 3.9 percent (WAEMU).
  - Health spending: 3 percent of GDP (Burkina Faso) vs 1.4 percent (WAEMU) and 2.2 percent (LIDCs).
  - Social assistance spending: 1.4 percent of GDP (Burkina Faso) vs 0.9 percent (LIDCs) and 0.5 percent (WAEMU).
- Share of total government spending:
  - Health: 22.7 percent of total government spending.
  - Education: 13.9 percent of total government spending.

### Outcomes and challenges
- General observation: Improving social outcomes is an ongoing challenge compounded by the security situation.
- Health outcomes:
  - Physicians per capita in line with WAEMU averages but worse than LIDC averages.
  - Maternal mortality rate is below both LIDC and WAEMU peers.
- Education outcomes:
  - Teacher-to-student ratios in Burkina Faso are slightly below peer averages.
  - Net enrollment rates drop significantly between primary and secondary education: from 78.6 percent (primary) to 31 percent (secondary).
  - Primary completion rate declined from 62.0 percent (2021/22) to 54.6 percent (2022/23), with the decline driven by regions affected by conflict.
- Policy focus: Ensure fiscal consolidation under the program does not impair poverty reduction by protecting domestically financed current social spending and targeting key capital investments to improve outcomes.

*Prepared by Nicolo Bird.*

*Annexes compiled from IMF staff analysis as contained in the cited IMF chapter.*

### Annex IV. Managing the Transfer of Public Sector Funds to the

### Annex IV. Managing the Transfer of Public Sector Funds to the Treasury Deposit Bank

### Reform background and objectives
- The government initiated reforms within the Treasury to consolidate public funds for more efficient cash management and progress toward establishment of a Treasury Single Account (TSA).
- The Treasury Deposit Bank (TDB) was created by decree on March 13, 2023, as an accounting unit under the Treasury tasked with managing treasury deposit accounts (N° 2023–198/PRES-TRANS/PM/MEFP; No. 2023–167 /MEFP/SG/DGTCP).
- The TDB is modeled on arrangements in Morocco and Côte d’Ivoire and aims to:
  - consolidate public funds;
  - provide the Treasury with better access to government liquidity;
  - improve the quality of banking services offered to public entities required to deposit their funds at the Treasury;
  - help establish the TSA, described as a WAEMU-wide reform.

### TSA design and the role of the TDB
- A TSA can range from:
  - a centralized structure with a single account at the central bank (option likely to be adopted in Burkina Faso, close to the Morocco case), to
  - a unified structure with distributed accounts kept at commercial banks whose balances are netted (typically daily) into a principal account at the central bank.
- The TDB’s operational role:
  - operating accounts for public entities are opened at the TDB before integrating their funds into the TSA;
  - funds of public entities outside the central government are consolidated via the TDB and integrated into the TSA;
  - the TDB aims to improve the quality of banking services offered to public entities.

### Challenges and potential impacts of transfers to the Treasury
- The revision of the status of mandatory and optional depositors to the Treasury undertaken in March 2024 could potentially affect financial sector liquidity.
- Specific measures and their potential impacts:
  - Civil servants are required to receive salaries through an account opened at the TDB, with an 18-month time window to comply with the decree (Article 18).
  - Although SOEs are not designated as mandatory depositors in the decree, communications indicate SOEs could be required to transfer a portion of their term deposits to the TDB, raising concerns about potential impacts on banking system liquidity and SOEs’ commercial autonomy.
  - Private citizens and other legal entities become eligible to deposit their funds at the Treasury, which could create competition for deposits.
- The text explicitly notes: “The transfer of public funds from commercial banks to the Treasury has the potential to affect financial sector liquidity.”

### Potential gains and risks (as presented in Table IV.1)
- Potential Gains:
  - Efficient Use of Government Cash Resources:
    - Elimination of unnecessary interest expenses by using idle balances
    - Pace for settlement of transactions
    - Availability and cost of credit
    - Availability of excess balances with reduced delays
    - Availability of funds
    - Improved oversight of government cash transactions for better planning
- Potential Risks:
  - Banking Services of Reduced Quality for Public Entities, SOEs, and Civil Servants:
    - Availability and cost of credit
    - Availability of excess balances with reduced delays
    - Availability of funds
  - On Commercial Banks' Activity:
    - Lower liquidity ratios
    - Viability of fragile banks
    - Lower credit to the private sector

### Mitigating measures and implementation status
- Authorities’ mitigating actions:
  - For civil servants’ payroll: authorities are working with commercial banks on the possibility to automatically transfer salaries from TDB accounts to commercial bank accounts.
  - For SOEs: government requires only SOEs exclusively owned by the government or by public entities, and with an adequate liquidity position, to transfer 25 percent of their term deposits, and henceforth to only create new term deposits at the TDB.
    - This process was initiated in August 2024 through a letter from the Ministry of Finance to SOEs.
    - The government states the TDB remunerates SOEs’ term deposits at comparable rates like in commercial banks to minimize financial costs for SOEs.
    - By March 2025, only 10 percent of SOEs’ term deposits had been effectively transferred to the TDB.
  - Discussions between the government and commercial banks are under way for a concerted phased transfer of funds, with the possibility for banks to propose repatriation plans.
  - The Treasury intends to use the additional liquidity to repay domestic debt, thereby circling back some liquidity to commercial banks.

### Implementation context and operational considerations
- Implementation challenges referenced:
  - Centralization of public funds had been hampered because public entities complained about lack of high-quality banking services within the Treasury compared to commercial banks.
  - TSA implementation in fragile states and low-income developing countries calls for a progressive and careful approach (reference to IMF How To Notes Volume 2022 Issue 001).
- Organizational relationships (as summarized in Figure IV.1):
  - Central Bank — Treasury — Treasury Single Account (TSA)
  - Treasury Deposit Bank (TDB) interfaces with Public Entities, Local Govts, EPN, SOEs, Civil Servants (for salaries), Commercial Banks, Private Sector, consolidating funds into the TSA Main Account.

*Prepared by Régis Kouassi and Martin Stuermer—Annex IV, “Managing the Transfer of Public Sector Funds to the Treasury Deposit Bank.”*

### 5.  Inflation is accelerating due to a rise in food prices. The year-on-year inflation rate at

### 1bfaea2025002-source-pdf - 5.  Inflation is accelerating due to a rise in food prices. The year-on-year inflation rate at

### Inflation, prices, and monetary policy
- Year-on-year inflation rate at end-December 2024: 4.9 percent (compared to 1.0 percent in December 2023).
- Annual average inflation at end-December 2024: 4.2 percent (compared to 0.7 percent at end-December 2023), an acceleration of 3.5 percentage points.
- Government actions: steps taken to limit the full impact of price rises on imported products and to secure supplies.
- Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO): key rates kept constant since the beginning of the year.

### External sector and current account
- Cotton fiber price change in 2024: −4.7 percent.
- Cotton exports change in 2024: −15 percent.
- Gold price change in 2024: +16 percent.
- Gold exports change in 2024: +3.3 percent.
- Current account deficit: widened from 5.0 percent of GDP in 2023 to 5.7 percent of GDP in 2024.
- Current account deficit in nominal terms (2024): CFAF 803 billion, an increase of 30.2 percent compared to 2023.
- Exports growth in 2024: +2 percent (driven mainly by gold shipments).
- Imports growth in 2024: +4.8 percent.
- Increase in supplies of manufactured goods: +201.9 billion (or +10.3 percent), including an equivalent of CFAF 129.2 billion in acquisitions of capital goods.
- Deficit in balance of services in 2024: worsened by 14.4 percent to CFAF 575 billion.
- Secondary income balance in 2024: deteriorated by CFAF 63 billion to CFAF 424 billion.
- Dollar exchange rate: remained almost stable.

### Money supply and banking sector flows
- Money supply (end-December 2024): CFAF 5,932.2 billion, up CFAF 380.2 billion (+6.8 percent) from end-December 2023.
- Net foreign assets of depository institutions: increased by CFAF 448.9 billion (+27.6 percent).
- Domestic claims: increased by CFAF 184.8 billion (+3.9 percent).
- Net claims on central government: increased by 44 percent.
- Outstanding credit to the economy: decreased by 0.3 percent.

### Fiscal performance, revenue mobilization, and budget execution
- Auctions on WAEMU financial market in 2024: cumulative total auctioned (bills and bonds) CFAF 1,066.392 billion requested; investor offers total CFAF 1,106.315 billion; government retained CFAF 1,036.083 billion (97.16 percent retained).
- Number of issuances in 2024: 21 issuances (19 by auction and 2 by syndication).
- Maturities used: bills (3 months, 6 months, 12 months); bonds by auction (3 years, 5 years, 7 years); bonds by syndication (5 years, 7 years, 8 years).
- Yields on securities: range from 6.13 percent to 9.83 percent.
- Total revenues and grants mobilized (including FSP) at end-December 2024: CFAF 3,083.4 billion (compared to CFAF 2,747.2 billion at end-December 2023), increase of 12.2 percent.
  - Tax revenue increase: 14.7 percent.
  - Non–tax revenue increase: 10.6 percent.
  - Grants: fell by 12.3 percent.
- Tax burden in 2024: 18.8 percent (compared to 17.8 percent in 2023).
- DGI collection gap related to corporate operating expenses and insecurity: CFAF 78.43 billion relative to supplementary budget law target for income taxes and profits.
- Lower (VAT−TAF) collection shortfall: CFAF 25.07 billion.
- DGD gap relative to target: CFAF 23.35 billion.
- Total expenditures and net lending (end-December 2024): CFAF 3,899.9 billion (or 28.5 percent of GDP) compared to CFAF 3,578.6 billion (or 28.7 percent of GDP) a year earlier, increase of 9.0 percent.
  - Increase in capital expenditure: 16.1 percent.
    - Purchase of WAHGNION GOLD OPERATION and BOUNGOU GOLD OPERATION SA mines: CFAF 36 billion.
    - Purchase of aircraft for AIR BURKINA: CFAF 7.28 billion.
    - Release of Faso Réassurance capital: CFAF 5.10 billion.
    - Construction of road infrastructure for defense and security deployment: CFAF 114.86 billion.
  - Current expenditure increase: 4.1 percent.
- Overall balance on a commitment basis (end-December 2024): deficit of CFAF 816.5 billion (compared to deficit of CFAF 831.4 billion in 2023), improvement of CFAF 14.9 billion.

### Wage bill, payroll audits, and personnel management
- Payroll audit recoveries at end-December 2024: recovered revenues of CFAF 2.85 billion on adjusted stock of improperly received salary payments of CFAF 6.69 billion (recovery rate 42.64 percent).
- Estimated savings on 2024 personnel expenses from adjustments and suspensions: CFAF 12.80 billion.
- Individual revenue orders issued following consolidation for suspended salaries: CFAF 7.85 billion for 1,424 employees for undue salary collection.
- AGSP payroll audit savings: CFAF 4.023 billion.
- SIGASPE audit: firm started work on January 9, 2025; completion scheduled by May 8, 2025 (120 calendar days).
  - Preliminary report submitted: February 20, 2025.
  - Midterm report submitted: March 24, 2025.
  - Interim report expected: by end–April 2025.
  - Final report expected: May 7, 2025.
- Reconciliation of personnel registers for former MENAPLN: working sessions in Q4 2024; analytical report submitted; Minister notified counterparts in January 2025; oral communication project to submit reconciliation results to Council of Ministers.

### Public debt and debt service
- Outstanding public debt (as of December 31, 2024): CFAF 8,001.03 billion (58.4 percent of GDP), compared to CFAF 6,947.31 billion (55.6 percent of GDP) as of December 31, 2023; increase of 15.2 percent.
- Public debt service as of December 31, 2024: CFAF 1,047.67 billion (compared to CFAF 1,223.76 billion in 2023), decrease of 14.39 percent.
- Government debt policy: pursued in accordance with sustainability indicators and ratios.

### Hydrocarbons, subsidies, and energy pricing
- Hydrocarbon price readjustment mechanism: application remained limited throughout 2024.
- Pump prices frozen since February 2023.
- Gains on sale of hydrocarbons as of December 31, 2024: CFAF 67.84 billion (compared to losses of CFAF 46.64 billion in 2023).
- Subsidies as of December 31, 2024:
  - Butane gas subsidies: CFAF 80.41 billion.
  - SONABEL fuels subsidies: CFAF 77.51 billion.
  - Total hydrocarbons/gas/fuel subsidies: CFAF 155.29 billion.

### VAT refunds, Special Allocation Account, and arrears
- VAT refunds paid in 2024: CFAF 121.4 billion.
- Special Allocation Account (CAS) credit balance on December 31, 2024: CFAF 100.6 billion.
- Outstanding stock of tax-free certificates on December 31, 2024: 76 certificates worth CFAF 38.6 billion.
  - Certificates less than 90 days old: 8 certificates worth CFAF 1.4 billion.
  - Certificates more than 90 days old: 68 certificates worth CFAF 37.2 billion.
- Stock of arrears (end-December 2024): CFAF 71.5 billion, including CFAF 49.03 billion in VAT refund arrears older than 90 days.
- Reasons for arrears accumulation: noncompliance in submission of proof of service by some suppliers; prioritization of strategic expenditures; cash flow pressures.
- Arrears clearance strategy: being finalized to bring stock of arrears to zero by end-December 2025.
- Verified arrears cleared by audit (structural benchmark for second review): CFAF 43.4 billion implemented as prior action for third review.

### Land management, transfers, and cadastre modernization
- Authorization for transfers after deadline for development of undeveloped land renewed for 2024.
- Special operation for issuance of urban residence permits and certificates for plot allocations to buyers launched.
- Transfer taxes collected in 2024: CFAF 17.8 billion (compared to CFAF 7.8 billion in 2023).
- Recovery under Flat-Rate Transfer Tax (DMF): CFAF 4.4 billion recovered via platforms such as eTITRE.
- Cadastre digitization and land records (as of December 31, 2024):
  - Cadastral entries digitized: 312,096.
  - Owners identified and entered in eCadastre: 382,022.
  - Parcels assessed: 234,628.

### Public-private partnerships (PPPs)
- Nominal value of PPPs contracted in 2024 (as of December 31, 2024): CFAF 154.623 billion, consisting of:
  - e-PASSPORT project (financing, construction, maintenance of polycarbonate biometric passports and electronic archiving): CFAF 19.725 billion.
  - Production of secure biometric consular cards for nationals in Côte d’Ivoire: CFAF 14.598 billion.
  - Construction and operation of a 50 MW biomass plant in Darsalami (Bobo–Dioulasso): CFAF 120.030 billion.

### Program implementation under IMF-supported program
- Program performance at end-December 2024: mixed; majority of structural benchmarks and quantitative criteria met, except ceilings on net domestic financing and on primary deficit including grants.
- Quantitative performance criteria (PCs):
  - Four of six PCs met.
  - Criteria not met: ceiling on net domestic financing and ceiling on primary deficit including grants.
  - Net domestic financing: CFAF 655.7 billion (target CFAF 572.5 billion).
  - Primary deficit including grants: CFAF 506.1 billion (ceiling CFAF 418.9 billion).
  - Three continuous PCs were met.
- Indicative targets:
  - Missed: accumulation of domestic arrears, floor on poverty-reducing social expenditures, ceiling on stock of certified and unpaid VAT refunds older than 30 days.
  - Domestic arrears at end-December 2024: CFAF 71.5 billion (target zero).
  - Floor on poverty-reducing current social expenditures at end-December 2024: CFAF 274.18 billion (target CFAF 309 billion), shortfall CFAF 34.82 billion.
  - At end-March 2025: five ITs met, four ITs missed by small margins.
- Structural benchmarks (SB):
  - Seven out of eight SBs fully implemented (including continuous SBs).
  - Of five SBs with end-December 2024 deadlines, four met.
  - Adoption of arrears clearance strategy implemented as a prior action (strategy covers arrears at end-December 2023 from ASCE-LC audit report and 2024 arrears).

### National Development Policy (PND) and Action Plan for Stabilization and Development (PA-SD)
- PA-SD four pillars: (i) combating terrorism and restoring territorial integrity; (ii) responding to the humanitarian crisis; (iii) rebuilding the state and improving governance; (iv) national reconciliation and social cohesion.
- Progress highlights for 2024:
  - Reconquest rate of national territory: increased from 69 percent in 2023 to 71 percent as of December 31, 2024.
  - Reduction in number of offenses (crimes and misdemeanors): from 17 percent to target of 5 percent.
  - Strengthening operational capacities of Defense and Security Forces (FDS) and Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP): increased personnel, improved equipment, creation of special units, rehabilitation and construction of security infrastructure, tightened controls to dry up terrorist resources, diversification of defense and security partnerships.
- Humanitarian response and social support in 2024:
  - Voluntary return of internally displaced persons (IDPs): 1,010,146 IDPs returned to areas of origin.
  - Food assistance provided to IDPs and vulnerable people.
  - Supply of 822,433 tons of improved seeds and 6,031.83 tons of fertilizer to vulnerable people, including IDPs.
  - Production equipment provided to 16,720 vulnerable households plus breeding animals.
  - Financing of 441 IDP entrepreneurship projects.
  - Educational support: educational continuity to 1,500 displaced students; education grant to 29,800 students in fallback areas; 10,070 desk benches delivered to schools.
  - Water and sanitation: 217 boreholes equipped with PMHs, 33 PEAs, 24 AEPSs set up; 78 boreholes rehabilitated in IDP areas of origin; 2,983 family latrines built in IDP host households.
  - Psychosocial support provided to 2,000,000 poor and vulnerable people affected by terrorism and to 29,491 women and girls (including IDPs) who are victims of violence.
- Rebuilding government and governance improvements:
  - Recovery rate of criminal fines: 84.5 percent.
  - Reduction of average radius of access to a regional court to 62.98 km via reopening of regional courts.
  - Legal aid provided to 1,683 people.
  - Availability of assessment document on implementation of Law No. 081–2015/CNT.
  - Timely signing of career documents (placement, reclassification, retirement) for many civil servants.
- Health sector actions:
  - Free benefits granted to children under 5 years of age: 8,391,306.
  - Free benefits granted to pregnant women: 7,861,436.
  - Introduction of malaria vaccine for children aged 5 to 23 months in pilot areas.
  - Reduction of scanner and MRI costs; elimination of charges for hemodialysis.
  - Acquisition of 15 mobile clinics.
  - Continued construction of Bobo–Dioulasso University Hospital and Radiotherapy Center, and the Manga Regional Hospital.
- Education actions:
  - Continued construction of new classrooms and standardization of academic years.

*International Monetary Fund — Burkina Faso: selected 2024 fiscal and economic developments (chapter content).*

### 81.32 percent, the recruitment of 203 researchers/teacher–researchers, the granting of scholarships,

### MACROECONOMIC POLICIES FOR 2025 AND THE MEDIUM TERM

### Human capital, education, and vocational training — implementation highlights
- 81.32 percent (progress indicator).
- Recruitment of 203 researchers/teacher–researchers.
- Granting of scholarships, loans, and aid to 93,831 students.
- Subsidies for 9,250 computers to be used by students.
- Construction of the scientific high school in Banfora.
- Training of 12,352 apprentices at vocational training centers.

### Revitalization of the manufacturing industry — implementation highlights
- Restructuring of 40 enterprises in difficulty.
- Incubation of 15 industrial units.
- Support via production kits for 162 units for the production and processing of local products.
- Support for 120 IDP producers and IDP associations.
- Construction of the tomato processing unit in Bobo–Dioulasso under APEC activities.

### Good economic and financial governance — implementation highlights
- Allocation of CFAF 2.63 billion in credit to ease access to financing for SMEs and industries.
- Operationalization of the Deposit and Investment Fund (Caisse de dépôt et d’investissement).
- Operationalization of 85 percent of the Treasury Deposit Bank (Banque de dépôt du Trésor).
- Computerization of the national land registry: digitization of 218,679 references in eCadastre.
- Identification of 1,623,897 owners.
- Evaluation of 206,354 plots.

### Macroeconomic framework — 2025 projections and assumptions
- Growth: Economic activity expected to grow by 6.0 percent in 2025.
  - Primary sector: +11.2 percent.
  - Tertiary sector: +6.5 percent.
  - Secondary sector: +6.0 percent.
- Nominal GDP: CFAF 14,858.6 billion in 2025 (compared to CFAF 14,101.4 billion in 2024).
- Inflation: expected to reach 2.7 percent in 2025 (a deceleration of 1.5 percentage points compared to 2024).
- Foreign trade price assumptions (in CFA francs):
  - Price of gold: increase of 20.4 percent.
  - Value of the dollar: increase of 2.0 percent.
  - Price of a barrel of oil: increase of 1.3 percent.
  - Price of cotton fiber: decrease of 4.2 percent.
- External sector:
  - Current account deficit expected at CFAF 292.2 billion in 2025 (improvement of CFAF 510.8 billion compared to 2024).
  - Improvement linked to surplus in balance of goods of CFAF 535.4 billion owing to 15.4-percent increase in exports and 11.6-percent increase in imports.
  - Current account deficit as percentage of GDP: 2.0 percent in 2025 (compared to 5.7 percent in 2024).
  - Overall balance of payments expected to be in deficit at CFAF 72.1 billion, or 0.5 percent of GDP in 2025.

### Fiscal policy — stance, targets, and revenue/expenditure projections
- 2025 budget deficit anticipated: 462.5 billion FCFA (subject to revision at the budget amendment bill).
- Funding requirement: 3.1 percent of GDP in 2025 (compared to 5.5 percent in 2024; decline of 2.4 percentage points).
- Structural benchmark: wage bill-to-tax revenue ratio to remain below 49.5 percent (end-December 2025).
- Revenues projected: increase by 6.9 percent to CFAF 3,104.0 billion (or 19.9 percent of GDP) after CFAF 2,904.9 billion in 2024.
- Tax burden rate: 18.9 percent in 2025 (improvement of 0.1 percentage point compared to 2024).
- Expenditure execution expected to decline by 3.1 percent in 2025 compared to 2024, to reach CFAF 3,762.3 billion, or 24.1 percent of GDP.
  - Drop in capital expenditure: –19.0 percent.
  - Current expenditure as proportion of total expenditure in 2025: expected to increase by 6.6 percentage points to 66.1 percent.

### Revenue mobilization and financing plans
- Continued modernization and digitalization of business processes (tax, public property, customs procedures).
- Planned opening of a second one-stop shop for land in Ouagadougou; new hydrocarbons office in Bobo; specialized unit for customs clearance of containerized shipments at the Ouaga Route Office; certified electronic invoicing.
- DGI and DGD to implement their 2025–27 operational action plans (OAPs).
- Government plans to mobilize a cumulative total of CFAF 1,185.00 billion for 2025 through traditional Treasury bill and bond instruments.
- As of April 9, first quarter 2025 mobilization on the regional market: CFAF 264.87 billion.
  - Maturities composition: 56 percent at 1 year, 19 percent at 3 years, 14 percent at 5 years, 11 percent at 7 years.
  - Average interest rates by maturity: 9.6 percent (1 year), 9.1 percent (3 years), 7.6 percent (5 years), 7.9 percent (7 years).
- During the first quarter of 2025, the government did not contract any direct loans from banks and nonfinancial institutions.

### Expenditure management and public spending reforms
- Priority on optimizing allocation of resources and budgeting quality to improve budget execution.
- Continued efforts to optimize current expenses to create fiscal space for investments; potential cancellation of non-priority budget allocations under the supplementary budget law if revenue targets are not met.
- Continued digitalization of government contract award processes and public expenditure chain documents.

### Debt policy and Medium-Term Debt Strategy (2025–28)
- Objectives:
  - Implement the 2025–28 debt strategy and deploy tools (new debt sustainability framework, new MTDS model).
  - Capacity development for stakeholders on international financial environment changes.
- MTDS aims:
  - Maintain Burkina Faso’s moderate risk of debt distress.
  - Maintain use of concessional resources; favor external financing denominated in euros to lower exchange rate risk.
  - Borrow non-concessional external resources denominated in euros to refinance short domestic debt and investments in the Action Plan for Stabilization and Development.
  - Continue regular interventions to develop the regional financial market.
  - Increase average maturity of domestic debt to five years.
  - Increase average maturity of total debt maturing during the year to 10 percent.

### Public finance reforms, transparency, and governance actions
- Audit and arrears management:
  - Implement recommendations from audit of all the state's arrears and floating debt; publish results on MEF website.
  - Develop action plan and clearance schedule monitored by control bodies.
- Treasury Single Account (TSA) and Treasury Deposit Bank (BDT):
  - Agreement between Ministry of Finance and BCEAO on TSA organization signed on November 27, 2024.
  - Gradual integration of accounts of projects and programs and other public services into the TSA; closure of their accounts at commercial banks.
  - Implement conclusions of impact study on closure of accounts of projects and programs at banks (structural benchmark).
  - Operationalization of BDT through gradual deployment of products and services, strengthening human resources, and public communication.
  - Repatriation decision: repatriate 25 percent of term deposits made by state-owned companies in commercial banks to the BDT; decision shared with companies in August 2024; instruction letter to banks issued February 2025.
- Payment and cash management governance:
  - Weekly Treasury Committee meets weekly to determine resource mobilization and settlement strategies.
  - Budget Execution and Cash Flow Monitoring Committee (CSEBT) meets monthly; chaired by the Minister of Finance; decides on budget execution and cash mobilization; reviews program commitments and procurement governance indicators.
- Information systems modernization:
  - Finalizing configurations for BCEAO Automated Interbank Clearing System (SICA) and Real-Time Gross Settlement System (STAR) to operationalize transaction accounts of public accounting officers.
  - Adapting fund deposit management system (SGDF) to banking standards and incorporating e-banking.

### Structural benchmarks, audits, and transparency commitments
- Structural benchmarks as part of fourth review:
  - ASCE-LC audit of the five largest public procurement contracts (outside defense and security), covering at least two different ministries; audit report to be shared with IMF staff by end-June 2025.
  - Adoption and sharing of a detailed action plan with timeline to implement audit recommendations by end-October 2025.
  - Commitment to share with IMF staff: (i) a comprehensive list of Treasury deposit accounts with their balances and (ii) the government’s net position as standard annexes to the TOFE each quarter starting from end-June 2025 data (structural benchmark). As a prior action, exhaustive list as of March 2025 with balances and government net position was shared.
- New structural benchmarks for the fifth review:
  - Implement the new action plan following the public procurement audit and submit report to staff (end-December 2025).
  - Adopt operational plans with timelines to foster integrity at the General Directorate of Taxes and the General Directorate of Customs by end-December 2025, including:
    - Dissemination and training on codes of ethics for all staff.
    - Publication of codes on the agencies' websites.
    - Establishment of disciplinary councils and anti-corruption committees.
    - Maintenance of annual statistics on offenses and disciplinary measures.
- Auditor’s Office publication commitment:
  - Regular and timely publication of the annual public report in accordance with the Organic Law on Annual Public Reporting, by end–November following the financial year at the latest.
  - For the 2024 fiscal year, aim to have the annual public report, including follow-up on previous Auditor’s Office recommendations, published by end–November 2025.

*BURKINA FASO — INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.*

### 45. To strengthen fiscal governance practices, Burkina Faso will implement the

### 1bfaea2025002-source-pdf - 45. To strengthen fiscal governance practices, Burkina Faso will implement the

### Strengthening fiscal governance and Governance Diagnostic Assessment (GDA)
- Implement the recommendations of the Governance Diagnostic Assessment (GDA) report prepared by the IMF technical assistance mission.
- Provisional GDA report forwarded to the ASCE-LC for comments and amendments; once finalized, it will be published with the agreement of the authorities (structural benchmark for end-June 2025).
- Government committed to adopt an action plan to implement priority recommendations of the final assessment report (structural benchmark for end-October 2025) within four months of the availability of the final report.

### DGB and DGCMEF Program Budget and LOLF implementation
- Continue implementation of reforms introduced by Organic Law No. 073/CNT of November 6, 2015, on Budget Laws (LOLF) through the program budget.
- Twenty-seven (27) major innovations selected:
  - 15 innovations have been fully implemented (55 percent).
  - 8 are in the process of being implemented (30 percent).
  - 4 are awaiting implementation (15 percent).
- DGCMEF requested IMF technical assistance to develop officials' capacities in issuing opinions on performance of budget programs and quality of management of payment authorization officers; preliminary discussions held.

### New Mining Code and local content
- Revision of the mining code introduced several major innovations to revitalize and strengthen the sector.
- 18 implementing decrees of the mining code have been adopted as of December 31, 2024.
- Several other implementing decrees validated in a national workshop; draft decrees to be finalized and signed when available at the Secretariat General of the Government and the Council of Ministers.
- Adoption of the law on local content to strengthen national preference gains from the 2015 mining code:
  - Four implementing decrees of the law on local content adopted as of December 31, 2024.
  - One decree is in the pipeline for subsequent adoption; draft texts available and to be submitted for signature when processed.

### Land sector digitization and revenue optimization
- In 2025, continue to digitize procedures and improve functionalities of the SYC@D platform (integration of procedures and data from eTitre, interfacing with the eCadastre platform, interface with the National Identification Office (ONI) database, etc.).
- Online services to be available, including issuance of extracts from cadastral plans and land occupation titles.
- Continue to digitize parcels, identify owners, carry out cadastral valuations, and implement measures to optimize land-related tax revenues.

### Strengthening governance and AML/CFT
- Implement measures to improve cash management and fiscal transparency, strengthen independence of audit institutions, reduce corruption, and address critical AML/CFT challenges.
- Monitoring of ICRG action plan for removal from the grey list:
  - Ninth cycle action plan completion rate was 94.5 percent (2 actions out of the 37 planned had not yet been completed).
  - Remaining two actions relate to weaknesses in mechanism for immediate implementation of targeted financial sanctions linked to financing of terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
  - Progress report from the 10th cycle reviewed on January 6, 2025, with final report transmitted on January 23, 2025, highlighting reservations about effectiveness of sanctions list notification process.
  - Evaluators did not recognize the effectiveness of the mechanism; action plan implementation rate remained 94.5 percent.
- Plan to adopt necessary adjustments and solutions during the 11th evaluation cycle, which is under way and will end in June 2025.
- Conclusions of the on-site mission to be reviewed at a FATF plenary, likely in October 2025, which may decide to remove Burkina Faso from the grey list.

### Social protection, Single Social Register (RSU), and IDP coverage
- Phased rollout of the RSU in effect since 2024; reached 11 urban municipalities initially.
- Poor and vulnerable households registered at end-June 2024: 277,220 households, or 1,742,463 individuals.
- As of February 1, 2025:
  - 75 municipalities covered: 21 urban municipalities and 54 rural municipalities.
  - 209,000 poor and vulnerable IDP households registered in the RSU.
- RSU data used by several programs; queries received for:
  - 6,400 households from Welthungerhilfe (WHH).
  - 560 households from the Danish Refugee Council (DRC).
  - 2,000 households from the Livestock Resilience and Competitiveness Project (PRECEL).
  - 9,408 households from the World Food Program (WFP).
  - 102 households from the Executive Secretariat of the National Food Security Council (SE–CNSA).
- Plans to cover 12 provinces in 2025 and the remaining 15 in 2026.
- Main challenges: shortfall in funding for the national phase and difficult deployment in localities with high security challenges.

### National Support Program for the Empowerment of Poor and Vulnerable Households (PAMPV)
- PAMPV aims to increase access for poor and vulnerable households to productive social safety nets and strengthen economic empowerment and resilience to shocks; implementation period 2024–2029.
- PAMPV creation and governance:
  - Formally created by Joint Order No. 2024-094/MAHSN/MEF of November 5, 2024.
  - Steering body established by order linking PAMPV to “National Solidarity, Management of Disasters and Humanitarian Crises” budget program and steering committee order in February 2025.
  - Partners such as the World Bank, WFP, and UNICEF expressed willingness to support PAMPV implementation.
- Steps for operationalization:
  - Develop PAMPV operational manual scheduled for April 2025.
  - Establish the Management Unit (UGP).
  - Hold a steering committee session to adopt the 2024 activity report and the 2025 annual work plan.
- Information on beneficial owners of entities awarded public procurement contracts under PAMPV will continue to be published in the public procurement review, despite depletion of resources disbursed under the Food Shock Window.

### Universal health insurance system (RAMU) operationalization
- RAMU operationalized through the National Universal Health Insurance Fund (CNAMU) with two main bodies: the General Directorate and the Board of Directors.
- Implementation progress:
  - Total registration of 190,324 persons in the RAMU Integrated Management System (SIGRAMU).
  - Affiliation of 250 structures/enterprises.
  - RAMU awareness-raising and training for the population.
  - Creation of a CNAMU website.

### Climate change resilience and climate fiscal policy support
- Annex identifying actions to mitigate climate change effects attached to the budget represents 12.95 percent of the payment appropriations of all ministries and institutions in 2025, equivalent to CFAF 262.98 billion.
- Two IMF-approved technical assistance missions in climate fiscal policy at Burkina Faso’s request:
  - Climate Policy Diagnostic Mission (CPD) scheduled in Ouagadougou from June 2 to June 12, 2025; a national focal point designated.
  - Climate Public Investment Management Assessment (C-PIMA) mission organized in two phases: virtual phase April 7 to April 11, 2025; in-person phase April 28 to May 8, 2025; a focal point is interacting with the mission team.
- During the third program review, open forums to discuss procedures for accessing the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) and government organization (task force, focal points, etc.).

### Energy sector priorities and strategy 2025–29
- Top priority: increase electricity production to avoid load shedding during the hot season and support growth.
- Government committed to peaceful use of atomic energy; multidisciplinary committee established to monitor commitments.
- Interconnection policy to continue with Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo/Benin; construction of the 330 kV North Core line is ongoing.
- Development of new energy sector strategy for 2025–29 following evaluation completed in 2023; orders establishing steering and technical committees adopted; update of the diagnostic assessment scheduled in the second quarter of 2025.
- Measures to strengthen electricity availability:
  - Expansion of the Komsilga power plant by adding two units with a capacity of 50 MW each.
  - Construction through PPP of the 100 MW Bobo–Dioulasso power plant.
  - Construction of a 100 MW power plant expandable to 200 MW in Ouagadougou.
  - Construction of solar power plants with storage.
  - Continuation of interconnections with neighboring countries.
- Urgent projects planned to construct thermal power stations in consumption centers with a combined capacity of around 161.4 MW by 2025 to reduce the current energy deficit.

### Hydrocarbon pricing mechanism and energy sector reform
- Continue efforts in 2025 to better control subsidies for hydrocarbons.
- New provisions in decrees setting hydrocarbon prices, awareness initiatives, and fraud-reduction actions expected to lead to a significant reduction in gas subsidies during 2025 and 2026.
- By end-June 2025, government to present a concrete reform of the energy sector with an implementation timetable to optimize and increase transparency of energy subsidies and improve energy sector efficiency; document to be based on existing strategies and recommendations of the technical assistance mission on hydrocarbon prices.

### Performance contracts and operational efficiency (SONABEL and SONABHY)
- Plan contracts and the tripartite agreement have been signed.
- Each company has set up its own monitoring committee; committee sessions held quarterly to discuss stakeholders’ concerns and implement recommendations.

### Tariff policy and trade restrictions
- A 0.5 percent import tax decided jointly by Alliance of Sahel States (PC-AES) came into force on March 31, 2025; it fully replaces the pre-existing 0.5 percent import tax under ECOWAS, with the same exclusions and features.
  - The levy is a redirection of the levy from ECOWAS to the AES and is not a new customs tariff.
  - Countries with preferential agreements with Burkina Faso are explicitly excluded.
  - The measure is not temporary and was not created to meet balance of payments needs; intended to finance AES activities.
- Pre-existing trade restrictions extended since March 28, 2025:
  - Extension of import quotas to all locally manufactured products.
  - Suspension of exports of shea nuts.
  - Import ban on weaving yarns and woven loincloths.
  - Suspension of raw cashew nut exports.
- These trade restrictions aim to support local industry; government committed to exploring alternatives and removing restrictions in the medium term.

### Improvement of macroeconomic monitoring and national accounts rebasing
- Continue support to update the base year for national accounts, with 2022 as the new base year; rebasing work now being finalized.
- Final accounts for 2022 (old base year 2015) are available.
- Retrospective adjustment work for implementation of a new series of national accounts will begin in 2025 after implementing the new base year, i.e., 2022.
- Actions to deepen the Food Security Integrated Approach Pilot (IAP) include development of a micro–simulation module incorporating recent results of the Harmonized Survey on Household Living Conditions and development of a long-term macro-econometric forecasting model.
- Efforts to improve compliance with schedule for publication of budget data, increase frequency of publication of external data, and increase budget allocations for reimbursement of VAT credits.

*International Monetary Fund — Burkina Faso program chapter content (sections 45–68).*

### 69. The government will take all measures required to achieve the objectives and meet the criteria

### 69. The government will take all measures required to achieve the objectives and meet the criteria

### Program evaluation, timelines, and contingency framework
- The program will be evaluated on the basis of Tables 1a, 1b, 2, and 3 of this Memorandum, in accordance with the Technical Memorandum of Understanding, which defines the quantitative performance criteria and the requirements with regard to data sharing with IMF staff.
- The fourth and fifth reviews are expected to be completed on or after September 30, 2025, and March 31, 2026, respectively.
- In the event of a shock, the government undertakes to review its fiscal policy by basing it on the alternative scenario (pessimistic or optimistic) of the DPBEP 2026–28.
- In an adverse scenario in which quantitative performance criteria cannot be met due to disruptions in economic activity, increased spending pressures, and rising borrowing costs in the regional market, the government is prepared to implement measures, including a fiscal adjustment possibly achieved with reductions in public investment, to mitigate risks to fiscal and debt sustainability, and to reach a fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP by 2027, in line with the fiscal anchoring of the program.

### Quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets (selected figures as presented)
- From Tables 1a and 1b (2024–25, 2025):
  - Historical / 2024 entries (selected table excerpts as presented):
    - Ceiling on net domestic financing of the government 3/ 4/ 5/: 286.3; 219.9; Met; 429.4; 359.4; 572.5; 655.7; Not met; 140.6; 32.0; Met
    - Ceiling on the amount of external debt contracted or guaranteed by the government (PV) 3/ 6/ 7/: 410.0; 218.5; Met; 410.0; ...; 410.0; 303.4; Met; 410.0; 74.5; Met
    - Ceiling on the accumulation of external payment arrears by the government 8/: -; -; Met; -; ...; -; -; Met; -; -; Met
    - Ceiling on the guaranteeing of new domestic loans to suppliers and contractors by the government 8/: -; -; Met; -; ...; -; -; Met; -; -; Met
    - Ceiling on government guarantees of new bank pre-financing for public investments 8/: -; -; Met; -; ...; -; -; Met; -; -; Met
    - Ceiling on the primary fiscal deficit including grants 3/: 209.5; 167.8; Met; 314.2; 251.5; 418.9; 506.1; Not met; 90.4; 0.9; Met
  - Indicative targets (selected):
    - Ceiling on the accumulation of domestic arrears by the government 8/: -; 52.6; Not met; -; ...; -; 71.5; Not met; -; 61.4; Not met
    - Floor on total government revenue 3/: 1,314.3; 1,417.3; Met; 1,971.4; 2,116.1; 2,723.5; 2,904.9; Met; 661.3; 655.1; Not met
    - Floor on poverty-reducing current social expenditures 3/: 151.7; 155.1; Met; 227.6; 255.4; 309.0; 274.2; Not met; 82.8; 79.5; Not met
    - Ceiling on the stock of unpaid, certified VAT refunds older than 30 days: 40.0; 35.2; Met; 40.0; 13.8; 40.0; 57.1; Not met; 40.0; 57.1; Not met
    - Ceiling on primary current expenditure 3/: 1,007.8; 1,006.4; Met; 1,511.7; 1,497.1; 2,015.6; 1,990.9; Met; 492.4; 460.8; Met
    - Ceiling on the value of PPPs contracted 3/: 200.0; 19.7; Met; 200.0; 19.7; 200.0; 154.6; Met; 200.0; -; Met
- Proposed / 2025 test dates (as presented):
  - Quantitative Performance Criteria 2/ (proposed test-date figures as presented):
    - Ceiling on net domestic financing of the government 3/ 4/: 140.6 283.5       220.0        340.0         418.0
    - Ceiling on the amount of external debt contracted or guaranteed by the government (PV) 3/ 5/ 6/: 410.0 410.0       410.0        410.0         410.0
    - Ceiling on the accumulation of external payment arrears by the government 7/: -               -   -                -
    - Ceiling on the guaranteeing of new domestic loans to suppliers and contractors by the government 7/: -               -   -                -
    - Ceiling on government guarantees of new bank pre-financing for public investments 7/: -               -   -                -
    - Ceiling on the primary fiscal deficit including grants 3/ 4/: 90.4 198.9 100.0 140.0        280.0
  - Indicative Targets (proposed / 2025):
    - Ceiling on the accumulation of domestic arrears by the government 7/: -                  -            50.0          30.0 -
    - Floor on total government revenue 3/: 661.3 1,322.5  1,450.0 2,200.0 3,080.0
    - Floor on poverty-reducing current social expenditures 3/: 82.8 167.7       140.0 220.0 290.0
    - Ceiling on the stock of unpaid, certified VAT refunds older than 30 days: 40.0 40.0         40.0 40.0 40.0
    - Ceiling on primary current expenditure 3/: 492.4 902.0  1,050.0 1,600.0 2,150.0
    - Ceiling on the value of PPPs contracted 3/: 200.0 200.0       200.0 200.0 200.0
  - Memorandum Item (as presented):
    - Net external financing: ......         52.0 52.0 204.0

### Continuous structural benchmarks (Table 2) — objectives, timelines, progress (selected)
- Do not grant any new wage agreement (except for the security sector) that could impact the wage bill trajectory and push it beyond 45 percent of tax revenues by 2027.
  - Objective: Wage bill control.
  - Timeline: Continuous structural benchmark.
  - Progress: Met.
- Publish information on the beneficial owners of entities awarded public procurement contracts to address food insecurity on the Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Perspective’s website on a quarterly basis the quarter after the contract is awarded.
  - Objective: Improve fiscal transparency and governance.
  - Timeline: Continuous structural benchmark.
  - Progress: Met. The information is published weekly in the Revue des marchés publics.
- Publish on the Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Perspective’s website annual (and to the extent possible, quarterly) budget execution reports.
  - Objective: Improve fiscal transparency and governance.
  - Timeline: Continuous structural benchmark.
  - Progress: Met.
- Share an exhaustive list of treasury deposit accounts (“comptes de dépôts du trésor”) with balances and the net position of the government as standard annexes to the TOFE on a quarterly basis, allowing the identification of those opened for the benefit of non-personalized services.
  - Objective: Improve fiscal transparency and governance.
  - Timeline: Continuous structural benchmark.
  - Progress: Starting with the data for end-June 2025.

### Structural benchmarks and prior actions (Table 3) — selected achievements and statuses
- First Review:
  - Adopt performance contracts with SONABHY and SONABEL.
    - Objective: Improve efficiency in the energy sector.
    - Completion date: End-December 2023.
    - Status: Not met. Implemented with delay in June and October 2024.
- Second Review:
  - Adopt the tripartite performance contract between the government, SONABHY and SONABEL.
    - Objective: Improve efficiency in the energy sector.
    - Status: Prior action Met on December 3, 2024.
  - Conduct a review of energy subsidies and an assessment of the application of the price mechanism to move towards a reduction in subsidies over the program period.
    - Objective: Improve efficiency in the energy sector and reduce fiscal risks.
    - Completion date: End-June 2024.
    - Status: Met.
  - Publish an audit of all the government arrears and floating spending on the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Perspective’s website.
    - Objective: Improve fiscal transparency and governance.
    - Completion date: End-June 2024.
    - Status: Not met. Implemented with delay in November 2024.
  - Raise the ceiling on VAT credit reimbursements to the CAST account to level consistent to avoid accumulation of arrears.
    - Objective: Reduce fiscal risks.
    - Completion date: End-June 2024.
    - Status: Met.
- Third Review (selected prior actions met):
  - Clear arrears that have been audited, amounting to CFAF 43.4 billion at end-December 2023 (ASCE-LC audit report).
    - Objective: Improve fiscal transparency and governance.
    - Status: Prior action Met on May 28, 2025.
  - Share the exhaustive list of Treasury Deposit Accounts as of March 2025, including their balances and the government’s net position.
    - Objective: Improve fiscal transparency and governance.
    - Status: Prior action Met on May 22, 2025.
  - Prepare and adopt a strategy for clearing government’s arrears.
    - Objective: Improve fiscal transparency and governance.
    - Status: Prior action Met on May 22, 2025.
  - Submit the draft budget for the next fiscal year in line with program objectives, including a budget document or annex detailing plans to combat climate change and climate-related budget appropriations, based on an agreed climate budget tagging methodology.
    - Objective: Improve fiscal transparency and governance.
    - Completion date: End-December 2024.
    - Status: Met.
  - Adopt a new strategic plan for revenue mobilization for the period 2024–27, based on the 2021 self-assessment.
    - Objective: Improve domestic revenue mobilization.
    - Completion date: End-December 2024.
    - Status: Met.
  - Contain wage bill growth to ensure that the wage bill to tax revenue ratio is below 51.8 percent.
    - Objective: Wage bill control.
    - Completion date: End-December 2024.
    - Status: Met.
  - Present to IMF staff alternating annual reconciliations between personnel registers and payroll registers covering around 50 percent of the civil service workforce (excluding the security sector) and the remainder in alternation.
    - Objective: Wage bill control.
    - Completion date: End-December 2024.
    - Status: Met. The report on the reconciliation covering 2024 was submitted to Fund staff on March 26, 2025.
- Fourth Review (selected benchmarks and deadlines):
  - Put in place a beneficial ownership registry accessible to government authorities and financial institutions with customer due diligence obligations.
    - Objective: Improve governance and the fight against money laundering and terrorism financing.
    - Completion date: End-June 2025.
  - Present a concrete energy sector reform plan to rationalize energy subsidies, enhance transparency, and improve energy sector efficiency, including an implementation timeline.
    - Objective: Improve efficiency in the energy sector and reduce fiscal risks.
    - Completion date: End-June 2025.
  - Publish the final report of the IMF Governance Diagnostic Assessment (GDA) mission.
    - Objective: Improve fiscal transparency and governance.
    - Completion date: End-June 2025.
  - Prepare, in consultation with IMF staff, and adopt a time-bound action plan to implement priority recommendations from the GDA report.
    - Objective: Improve fiscal transparency and governance.
    - Completion date: End-October 2025.
  - Share with IMF staff the report of a value-for-money audit of public procurement by the High Authority for State Control and the Fight Against Corruption (ASCE-LC) of the five largest public procurement contracts, covering at least two different ministries outside the defense and security sectors, to assess their legality and value for money.
    - Objective: Improve fiscal transparency and governance.
    - Completion date: End-June 2025.
  - Adopt and share with IMF staff an action plan to implement key recommendations of the public procurement audit, including the responsible institutions and an implementation timeline, within a maximum period of 4 months from the availability of the final report.
    - Objective: Improve fiscal transparency and governance.
    - Completion date: End-October 2025.
- Fifth Review (selected benchmarks and deadlines):
  - Submit to IMF staff a report on the implementation of the action plan to address the issues in public procurement identified through the audit of the five largest public procurement contracts.
    - Objective: Improve fiscal transparency and governance.
    - Completion date: End-December 2025.
  - Adopt and share with IMF staff operational plans with timelines for each action to foster integrity at the General Directorate of Taxes and the General Directorate of Customs, including dissemination and training on codes of ethics, publication on websites, disciplinary councils and anti-corruption committees, and maintaining annual statistics on offenses and disciplinary measures.
    - Objective: Improve fiscal transparency and governance.
    - Completion date: End-December 2025.
  - Contain wage bill growth to ensure that the wage bill to tax revenue ratio is below 49.5 percent.
    - Objective: Wage bill control.
    - Completion date: End-December 2025.

### Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU) — definitions and coverage (selected)
- TMU date: June 4, 2025.
- The TMU defines the quantitative performance criteria, indicative targets, and structural benchmarks used to assess performance under the ECF-supported program and establishes the framework and deadlines for reporting data to IMF staff.
- Government definition: central government of Burkina Faso; excludes local governments, the central bank, or other public entities with autonomous legal status not included in the TOFE.
- Definition of debt: per IMF Executive Board Decision No. 15688-(14/107); debt means all current, i.e., not contingent, liabilities created under a contractual arrangement requiring future payments; forms include (i) loans, (ii) suppliers’ credits, and (iii) leases (present value at lease inception).
- Arrears, penalties, and judicially awarded damages and interest arising from failure to make payment under a contractual obligation that constitutes debt are debt.
- Debt guarantees: explicit legal obligation to service the debt in the event of nonpayment by the borrower.
- Debt concessionality: a debt is considered concessional if it includes a grant element of at least 35 percent. The present value (PV) of debt at the time it is contracted is calculated by discounting the borrower’s future debt service payments on the debt. The discount rate used is 5 percent.
- External debt: debt contracted or serviced in a currency other than the CFA franc; performance criteria apply to the external debt of the government, public enterprises receiving transfers from the government and other public entities in which the government holds more than 50 percent of the capital, or to any other private debt for which the government has offered a guarantee constituting a contingent liability.
- TOFE coverage: For program monitoring purposes, the TOFE covers the central government including the Patriotic Support Fund.

*Sources: Burkinabè authorities; IMF staff estimates and projections; Attachment II. Technical Memorandum of Understanding, June 4, 2025.*

### 11. Net domestic financing of the government is defined as the consolidated amount of (i) net

### 11. Net domestic financing of the government is defined as the consolidated amount of (i) net

### Definition of Net Domestic Financing (NDF)
- NDF is the consolidated amount of:
  - (i) net bank credit to the government, including net bank credit to the government as defined vis-à-vis the national banking institutions;
  - (ii) net changes in the stock of unredeemed Treasury bills and bonds (including syndicated issuances) held outside national commercial banks and securitized debt;
  - (iii) privatization receipts and other government claims and debts vis-à-vis national non-bank institutions;
  - (iv) borrowing for VAT refunds;
  - (v) net accrual of all other arrears and floating debts, including payables;
  - (vi) net change in the position of the Treasury resulting from movements of funds between the Treasury, including its correspondent accounts, and their accounts held in banks and financial institutions outside the Treasury system;
  - (vii) the net result of all other financial transactions and lags at all stages of the expenditure process that contribute to the reconciliation between the overall fiscal deficit as measured on an accrual basis and on a cash basis.
- Net bank credit to the government is the balance of government receivables and payables to domestic banking institutions.
  - Government receivables include cash held by the Burkina Faso government, deposits with the central bank, deposits with commercial banks, guaranteed bonds, and government deposits in postal checking accounts (CCP).
  - Government debt to the banking system includes central bank financing (including statutory advances, consolidated advances, and refinancing of guaranteed bonds), government securities held by the central bank, and commercial bank lending (including government securities held by commercial banks).
- All components of NDF are calculated based on data reflected in the TOFE and its annexes.

### Adjustment rules for NDF ceilings
- The cumulative ceilings on net domestic financing for end-June 2025 and end-September 2025 will be adjusted downward if net external financing (disbursements of program loans and project loans net of amortization) through these dates exceeds CFAF 162 billion.
  - The adjustment equals the difference between the actual amount disbursed and CFAF 162 billion.
  - These ceilings will not be adjusted upward if net external financing falls short of CFAF 52 billion.
- For end-December 2025:
  - If net external financing through end-December 2025 falls short of CFAF 204 billion, the end-December 2025 ceiling for NDF will be adjusted upward (up to a maximum ceiling of CFAF 460 billion) by the amount of the shortfall.
  - If net external financing through end-December 2025 exceeds CFAF 204 billion, the end-December 2025 ceiling on NDF will be adjusted downward by the amount of the excess.
- Table 1. Burkina Faso: Projected Net External Financing (Cumulative, CFAF billion)
  - End-June 2025: 52
  - End-September 2025: 52
  - End-December 2025: 204

### Reporting on NDF
- The Ministry of Economy and Finance will forward data on net domestic financing to the IMF within seven weeks of the end of each quarter.

### New External Debt Contracted or Guaranteed by the Government (Performance Criterion)
- Applies to external debt as defined in paragraph 4 and uses the concept of concessionality as defined in paragraph 7.
- Also applies to any private debt guaranteed by the government that constitutes a contingent liability as defined in paragraphs 4 to 7.
- “Government” includes the central government, public enterprises that receive government transfers, local governments, and other public sector entities.
- Exclusions: Treasury bills and bonds issued in CFA francs on the WAEMU regional market, normal import-related commercial debts with a term of less than one year, and IMF loans.
- Measured cumulatively from the beginning of each year; no adjustor will apply.
- For 2024 and 2025, the government undertakes not to contract or guarantee any external debt (concessional or non-concessional) with a total PV in excess of the ceiling indicated in Table 1 of the MEFP, measured cumulatively from January 1.
  - For a (concessional or non-concessional) loan for debt reprofiling, the ceiling will be raised by the PV of the total amount of the loan if such debt reprofiling operation constitutes an improvement in the overall debt profile as determined by IMF staff.
  - The authorities will consult IMF staff in advance when a debt reprofiling operation is expected.
- Proceeds of any concessional reprofiling loan referred to will be used only to help finance the government's gross financing requirements consistent with the overall budget deficit ceilings established in the program. Any surplus resources will be safeguarded.

### Reporting deadlines for new external debt and guarantees
- Details on any loan (terms and creditors) contracted by the government must be reported within six weeks of the end of each month.
- The same requirement applies to guarantees extended by the government.

### Non-Accumulation of New External Payment Arrears
- “External arrears” are external debt service payments that are due but unpaid.
- The government agrees not to accumulate external payment arrears on its debt, except arrears arising from external payment obligations currently being renegotiated with creditors, including bilateral creditors who are not members of the Paris Club.
- This performance criterion must be met continuously.

### Government Guarantee for New Domestic Loans to Suppliers and Service Providers
- The government undertakes not to guarantee new bank pre-financing for public investments.
  - In a pre-financing arrangement, a private company awarded a public works contract obtains a loan from a domestic commercial bank; the Ministry of Economy and Finance guarantees this loan and signs an unconditional and irrevocable agreement to stand in for the debtor to service all principal and interest.
- “Government” for this criterion includes central government, EPICs, EPAs, public scientific or technical entities, public professional entities, public health agencies, local governments, government corporations, state-owned enterprises, semi-public corporations (public corporations with financial autonomy in which the government holds at least 50 percent of the capital), and government agencies.
- This performance criterion shall be met continuously.

### Government Guarantee for New Bank Pre-Financing of Public Investments
- The government undertakes not to guarantee new bank pre-financing of public investments (same definition and scope of “government” as above).
- This performance criterion shall be met continuously.

### Primary Fiscal Deficit, Including Grants
- Definition:
  - For program purposes, the primary fiscal balance is calculated on a commitment basis.
  - It is defined as the difference between domestic revenues (including program and project grants) and public expenditure, less interest payments.
  - Arrears payments are not included in the calculation of the domestic primary balance.
- Adjustment rules:
  - The end-June and end-September 2025 ceilings on the primary fiscal deficit will be adjusted upward if actual net external financing through these dates exceeds CFAF 52 billion.
    - The adjustment equals the difference between the actual amount disbursed and CFAF 52 billion, up to a maximum of CFAF 110 billion.
  - If actual net external financing through these dates falls short of CFAF 52 billion, the respective end-June 2025 and end-September 2025 ceilings on the primary fiscal deficit will be adjusted downward by the amount of the shortfall.
  - If actual net external financing through end-December 2025 falls short of CFAF 162 billion, the end-December 2025 ceiling for the primary fiscal deficit will be adjusted downward by the amount of the shortfall.
  - If net external financing through end-December 2025 exceeds CFAF 204 billion, the end-December 2025 ceiling on the primary fiscal deficit will not be adjusted.

### Quantitative Indicative Targets (end-June 2025, end-September 2025, end-December 2025)
- The program includes the following quantitative indicative targets:
  - (i) A ceiling on the accumulation of domestic arrears by the government;
  - (ii) A floor on total government revenue;
  - (iii) A floor on poverty-reducing current social expenditure;
  - (iv) A ceiling on the stock of certified and unpaid VAT refunds older than 30 days;
  - (v) A ceiling on primary current expenditure;
  - (vi) A ceiling on public-private partnerships.

### Amounts Payable, Including Arrears on Domestic Payments by the Government
- “Amounts payable” (or “outstanding balances”) include domestic arrears and the floating debt and represent overdue obligations of the government.
- Defined as expenditures accepted by the government accounting officer but not yet paid.
- For program purposes these obligations include:
  - (i) public and private nonfinancial enterprise invoices due and unpaid, including VAT refunds;
  - (ii) domestic debt service.
- Domestic payment arrears:
  - Arrears to suppliers: overdue obligations to public and private nonfinancial enterprises, including VAT refunds, that are more than the regulatory 90 days overdue.
  - Arrears on domestic debt service: debt service obligations more than 30 days past the due date stipulated in the agreements, including any applicable grace period.
- Floating debt: amounts unpaid for less than the regulatory period (90 days for debt to nonfinancial corporations and 30 days for debt service).
- For program purposes, the ceiling on the accumulation of new domestic payment arrears is zero.
  - This indicative target will be subject to continuous monitoring and any breach reported to IMF staff on a quarterly basis.

### Government Revenue (Definition)
- Government revenues are calculated on a cash basis.
- They include all tax revenues collected by:
  - Directorate General of Taxes (DGI),
  - Directorate General of Customs (DGD),
  - Burkinabè Treasury (DGTCP),
  - and other revenue collection units.
- They also include nontax receipts or receipts from services.

### Poverty-Reducing Current Social Expenditure (Definition)
- Current social expenditure earmarked for poverty reduction is the sum of validated current expenditures, identified since 2021 in collaboration with the IMF, contributing to poverty reduction, excluding external financing, and wage bill spending.
- Included activities:
  - (i) provision of education, health, and drinking water;
  - (ii) expansion of opportunities for income-generating activities and self-employment, development of rural roads, and construction of economic infrastructure (agricultural and pastoral water works);
  - (iii) promotion of women, social action, information, employment, and vocational training;
  - (iv) access to justice;
  - (v) promoting development of the agricultural economy to improve incomes in agricultural value chains;
  - (vi) contribution to sustainable growth and diversification of the supply of agricultural products;
  - (vii) sustainable wastewater and excreta sanitation;
  - (viii) meeting freshwater needs of users and aquatic ecosystems;
  - (ix) creation of decent jobs for all leading to the improvement of social well-being.
- The amount allocated in the 2025 budget for thus defined current social expenditure is CFAF 316 billion.

### Certified VAT Refunds and Overdue Payments Over 30 Days (Definition)
- Stock of VAT refund claims that have been certified but remain unpaid for more than 30 days consists of the amounts of signed refunds.
- The 30-day period begins on the date the refund certificate is signed by the Director General of Taxes.

### Current Primary Expenditures (Definition)
- For program purposes, current primary expenditure is defined as the sum of wage bill expenditure, expenditure on goods and services, and current transfers, net of interest payments.

### Consultation Clause on Wage Bill
- If, at the end of a quarter (March 31, June 30, September 30, December 31) during the program period, observed annual growth of the wage bill (measured as a 12-month sliding growth rate) exceeds the wage bill growth rate projected for the respective year in the macroeconomic framework, the authorities must consult with IMF staff.
- To prepare this consultation, the authorities must submit a written note explaining reasons for the discrepancy and corrective measures to bring the wage bill under control.
- Table 2. Burkina Faso: Annual Wage Bill Growth Projections (Percentage)
  - Year: 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
  - Projection: 8.7 9.6 8.9 5.3 4.3
  - Actual: 8.7 6.7 ... ... ...

### Public-Private Partnerships (Definition)
- A public-private partnership is a long-term contract between a private party and a government entity for providing a public asset or service in which the private party bears significant risk and management responsibility, and remuneration is linked to performance.
- It excludes pre-financing and supplier credit arrangements.

### Additional Information for Program Monitoring — Data Reporting Requirements (summary)
- Authorities agree to submit specified data, in hard copy and/or MS Excel electronic files, with frequencies and deadlines as specified.
- Select reporting items and deadlines (responsible institution; frequency; reporting deadline):
  - Government fiscal reporting table (TOFE) and annexes — MEF/DGTCP — Monthly data on revenue and expenses; Quarterly full dataset — 4 weeks; 7 weeks.
  - Exhaustive list of treasury deposit accounts with balances and net position — MEF/DGTCP — Quarterly — 7 weeks.
  - Domestic financing of the budget (net bank credit and stock of unredeemed Treasury bonds and bills) — MEF/DGTCP and BCEAO — Monthly — 7 weeks.
  - Data on implementation of the public investment program, including financing sources — MEF/DGEP — Semiannual — 6 weeks.
  - Stock of external debt, external debt service, contracted external debt, and external debt repayment — MEF/DGTCP — Quarterly — 6 weeks.
  - Poverty-reducing current social spending in table format — MEF/DGB — Monthly — 6 weeks.
  - Petroleum product prices, consumption, and taxes (detailed elements) — CIDPH, MEF/DGD/DGTCP, SONABHY — Monthly — 4 weeks.
  - Quarterly report on SONABHY’s accounts, cash flow statements, and income statements — SONABHY — Quarterly — 6 weeks.
  - Quarterly report on SONABEL’s accounts, cash flow, and income statements — SONABEL — Quarterly — 6 weeks.
  - Monthly DGI, DGD, DGTCP revenue projections (annualized) and monthly performance — MEF/DGI, MEF/DGD, MEF/DGTCP — Monthly — 7 weeks.
  - Quarterly report on VAT refunds (transfers from ACCT, cumulative amount paid, stock of certified refund claims, total VAT refund claims handled) — MEF/DGI — Quarterly — 3 months.
  - Monthly update of PPP and sovereign guarantee databases — BN-GPB — Semiannual — 6 weeks.
  - Monthly statement of the implicit pump price subsidy — CIDPH — Monthly — 4 weeks.
  - Monthly data on new domestic debt contracted and amortized — MEF/DGTCP — Monthly — 6 weeks.
  - Consolidated balance sheets of monetary institutions; monetary survey provisional and final data; lending and borrowing interest rates; standard bank supervision indicators — BCEAO — Monthly — 6 weeks.
  - Preliminary annual balance of payments data — BCEAO — Annual — 11 months.
  - Foreign trade statistics — MEFP/INSD — Quarterly — 3 months.
  - Provisional and quarterly national accounts and revisions — MEF/INSD — Annual 6 months; Quarterly 3 months.
  - Monthly disaggregated consumer price indices — MEF/INSD — Monthly — 4 weeks.
  - Monthly performance and projections for mine production, exports, and operational status of mines — MEF/DGD and MEMC/DGMG/DGESS — Monthly — 3 months.
  - Any study or official report on Burkina Faso’s economy — MEF/DGEP — On date published or date of entry into force.
  - Any decision, order, law, decree, ordinance, or circular having economic or financial implications — MEF/SG — On date published or date of entry into force.
  - Any study or official report on measures taken to combat corruption — ASCE-LC — On date published or date of entry into force.

*Source: IMF staff memorandum (excerpts provided in the source content).*

### Annex to the annual budget detailing plans to

### Annex to the annual budget detailing plans to combat climate change (including resource allocations and assessment of the fiscal latitude for climate friendly infrastructure). MEF/DGB On date published or date of entry into force

### Debt sustainability assessment: key findings
- Burkina Faso remains at moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress.
- Debt levels are sustainable over the medium term.
- Current debt-carrying capacity: Composite Indicator (CI) = 2.86, corresponding to a ‘Medium’ debt-carrying capacity.
- All external and public debt indicators are evaluated at low risk of debt distress based on mechanical signals; judgment applied due to:
  - strong gold exports dependence,
  - downside risks to the fiscal sector, including from the rollover of domestic debt,
  - volatile security situation.
- High level of uncertainty surrounding projections.
- Risk ratings recorded:
  - Risk of external debt distress: Moderate
  - Overall risk of public debt distress: Moderate
  - Granularity in the risk rating: Limited space to absorb shocks.
  - Application of judgement: Yes (risks raised due to volatile security situation, fiscal risks tilted to the downside, and high dependence on gold exports).
- Document approved June 5, 2025.

*Approved by Annalisa Fedelino and Bergljot Barkbu (IMF) and Manuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA). Prepared jointly by IMF and IDA staffs.*

### Public debt coverage and contingent liabilities
- Public debt coverage for this DSA: central government debt and central bank debt (central bank debt borrowed on behalf of the government included as external debt).
- Data limitations: SOEs, local governments, and guarantees to the private sector not entirely comprehensive; a combined contingent liability stress test calibrated using estimates.
- Coverage choice: domestic debt defined as debt denominated in the regional currency, the CFAF.
- Securities issued on the UMOA-Titres market accounted for 46.4 percent of CFAF-denominated debt at end-2024 (data do not account for secondary market transactions).
- Contingent liabilities stress test:
  - Total shock applied: 9.6 percent of GDP.
  - Breakdown:
    - Other elements of the general government not captured in coverage: 1.5 percent of GDP (used 1.0 percent in default, adjusted to 1.5 percent).
    - Guarantees to the private sector: 1.5 percent of GDP.
    - SOEs' debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed): 3.1 percent of GDP (default 2 percent of GDP increased to 3.1 percent to reflect official estimate of SOEs debt at end-2024).
    - PPPs: 0.0 percent (PPPs less than 5 percent of GDP).
    - Financial market shock: 5.0 percent of GDP (default retained).
  - Government guarantees on external debt of SOEs estimated not exceeding 0.2 percent of GDP at end-2024.
  - The stock of SOE debt not captured in the central government sector is estimated at 3.1 percent of GDP at end-2024.

### Background on public debt dynamics (2018–24)
- Public debt-to-GDP ratio increased markedly in 2021 and has oscillated around 56 percent since then.
- Share of external debt decreased from 56.8 percent in 2018 to 44.5 percent in 2024 due to increased recourse to the WAEMU bond market.
- Treasury issuance:
  - Annual issuance of treasury bonds and bills increased from CFAF 774 billion in 2022 to CFAF 1,036 billion in 2024.
  - Share of longer-term syndicated bonds decreased from 37.8 percent in 2022 to 22.6 percent in 2024.
- Time to maturity of treasury instruments shortened from 4.5 years at end-2022 to 3.2 years at end-2024.

### Debt service, yields, and creditor composition
- Total interest payments at end-December 2024: CFAF 249 billion.
  - Interest on domestic debt: CFAF 216 billion (86.7 percent of total interest debt service).
- Comparison with 2019:
  - 2019 interest payments: CFAF 97 billion; domestic debt interest CFAF 69 billion (71.3 percent of total).
- Market yields and issuance:
  - Average yields for Burkinabè treasury instruments issued by auction rose from 7.5 percent in 2023 to 8.3 percent in 2024.
  - Treasury stepped up efforts to extend maturity profile due to higher yields for short-term maturities in 2024.
- Debt stock and creditor breakdown (end-2024, CFAF billions; percent of total debt; percent of GDP):
  - Total: 8,027.1 (100; 56.9)
  - External: 3,574.6 (44.5; 25.4)
    - Multilateral creditors: 3,222.3 (40.1; 22.9)
      - IMF: 339.5 (4.2; 2.4)
      - World Bank: 1,587.4 (19.8; 11.3)
      - Other Multilaterals: 1,295.4 (16.1; 9.2)
    - Bilateral creditors: 352.4 (4.4; 2.5)
      - Paris Club: 133.4 (1.7; 0.9)
        - o/w: France 116.7 (1.5; 0.8)
      - Non-Paris Club: 218.9 (2.7; 1.6)
        - o/w: China (including Bank of China) 53.1 (0.7; 0.4)
        - Kuwait 29.7 (0.4; 0.2)
  - Domestic: 4,452.4 (55.5; 31.6)
    - T-Bills: 297.1 (3.7; 2.1)
    - Bonds: 3,345.8 (41.7; 23.7)
    - Loans: 809.5 (10.1; 5.7)
- Debt service (selected entries, CFAF billions; percent GDP):
  - Total debt service 2024: (debt service columns shown for projected years by creditor categories in Text Table 4).

### Financing needs and market implications
- Government gross financing needs (GFN) to be satisfied by the regional market:
  - 2025: estimated at 0.9 percent of WAEMU countries’ GDP (lower than average 2020–24 regional market absorption of 1.0 percent of WAEMU countries’ GDP).
  - Medium term (2026–30): projected to increase to 1.4 percent of WAEMU countries’ GDP.
- Implication: need for additional access to concessional financing and encouragement of initiatives to deepen the regional financial market.
- DSA assumption on external borrowing composition: non-concessional borrowing assumed to reach an average of around 35 percent of total external borrowing over time through the DSA horizon.

### Arrears and clearance strategy
- Domestic arrears (outstanding more than 90 days) increased by 0.2 percent of GDP in 2024; stock at 0.5 percent of GDP at year’s end.
  - Arrears related to VAT reimbursements (mostly to foreign operators in the mining sector): about 0.3 percent of GDP.
  - Arrears to government suppliers: 0.2 percent of GDP.
- Authorities audited arrears identified at the 2nd ECF review and prepared/adopted an arrears clearance strategy as a prior action for the 3rd ECF review, with a view to clearing all outstanding arrears by end-2025.

### Baseline macroeconomic scenario, forecasts, and risks
- Baseline scenario worsened since June 2024 DSA: Real GDP growth revised down across the board due to persistent insecurity (assumed to recede only gradually with high probability of setbacks).
- Current account and fiscal:
  - Current account deficit expected to drop to 3.4 percent of GDP in 2025 due to higher gold prices and new gold mining operations.
  - Fiscal consolidation path slightly tighter vs. June 2024 DSA, with gradual convergence of the overall fiscal deficit to the WAEMU norm of 3 percent of GDP in 2027.
- Main risk sources: security situation, weather shocks, gold price fluctuations, revenue performance risks, unexpected spending pressures (notably on security), and potential deterioration of financing conditions on the regional bond market.
- Security indicators (2024 vs prior year): number of terrorist attacks declined by 28 percent in 2024; fatalities increased by 13 percent.
- Gold: represents about 80 percent of exports (major source of risk).

### Program pillars and fiscal anchors
- ECF-supported program centers on three pillars:
  1. creating fiscal space for priority spending;
  2. strengthening resilience to shocks and reducing poverty and inequality;
  3. enhancing fiscal discipline, transparency, and governance.
- Fiscal anchor targets:
  - Reduce deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3 percent by 2027 (WAEMU convergence criterion).
  - Reduce wage-bill-to-revenues ratio to 45 percent by 2027.
  - Raise tax revenue-to-GDP ratio by 1.5 percentage points relative to a baseline without reforms.

### Realism checks and credibility of baseline
- Baseline credible in most realism exercises except one:
  - External debt projection realism: realistic; projected external-debt-creation driven by current account and FDI dynamics similar to historical experience.
  - Overall public debt-creating flows: over last 5 years substantially higher than projections due to pandemic and security-related spending; primary deficit a major driver.
  - Fiscal adjustment path: 2.9-percent adjustment over three years is in the upper quartile of LIC countries’ experience in Fund-supported programs (considered optimistic).
  - Estimated economic growth path and contribution from government capital to real GDP growth are in line with historical experience.

### Key macroeconomic assumptions and projections (selected)
- Gold price (USD/troy ounce) — Current Forecast:
  - 2022: 1801.5
  - 2023: 1943.1
  - 2024: 2387.2
  - 2025: 2820.8
  - 2026: 2963.0
  - 2027: 3096.3
  - 2028: 3197.8
- Cotton price (USD cts/lb) — Current Forecast:
  - 2022: 130.1
  - 2023: 95.0
  - 2024: 86.6
  - 2025: 79.3
  - 2026: 81.4
  - 2027: 80.9
  - 2028: 80.9
- Real GDP growth (%) — Current Forecast:
  - 2022: 1.5
  - 2023: 3.0
  - 2024: 5.0
  - 2025: 4.2
  - 2026: 4.9
  - 2027: 4.7
  - 2028: 4.7
- Current account (% of GDP) — Current Forecast:
  - 2022: -7.5
  - 2023: -5.0
  - 2024: -5.7
  - 2025: -3.4
  - 2026: -3.1
  - 2027: -3.4
  - 2028: -3.7
- Overall fiscal balance (% of GDP) — Current Forecast:
  - 2022: -10.7
  - 2023: -6.7
  - 2024: -5.8
  - 2025: -4.0
  - 2026: -3.5
  - 2027: -3.0
  - 2028: -3.0
- Additional Box 1 assumptions:
  - Preliminary data indicates 5 percent real GDP growth in 2024 due to strong growth in agricultural production offsetting a decline in gold production.
  - 2025 real GDP growth expected to moderate at 4.2 percent.
  - Inflation: annual average 0.7 percent in 2023, estimated 4.2 percent in 2024; assumed to drop to 3 percent in 2025 and converge to 2 percent over the medium term (BCEAO 1–3 percent target band).
  - ECF program anchor: fiscal deficit decline from an estimated 5.8 percent of GDP in 2024 to 3 percent in 2027.
  - Total public debt levels estimated to decrease from 56.9 percent of GDP in 2024 to 54.0 percent in 2027.
  - Assumptions on debt costs include:
    - average interest rate of 8.7 percent for T-bills (previously 8.5 percent),
    - 9 percent for bonds up to 3 years (previously 8.5 percent),
    - 8 percent for 3-year to 7-year bonds (as before).

*Prepared jointly by the staffs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Development Association (IDA).*

### 7.7 percent for long-term bonds (as before) for 2024. For 2025, rates are assumed to go up to 9.7 percent for T-bills

### 1bfaea2025002-source-pdf - 7.7 percent for long-term bonds (as before) for 2024. For 2025, rates are assumed to go up to 9.7 percent for T-bills

### Interest rate and domestic financing assumptions
- Interest rate assumptions for 2024 and 2025:
  - 2024: 7.7 percent for long-term bonds (as before).
  - 2025: 9.7 percent for T-bills.
  - 2025: 9 percent for bonds up to 3 years.
  - 2025: 7.5 percent for bonds between 4 to 7 years.
  - 2025: 7.7 percent for bonds with longer maturities.
- Medium-term expectation:
  - Interest rates are expected to return to their historical averages, assuming an improvement of the security situation and a return to civilian rule.
- Composition of domestic financing strategy:
  - About 45 percent in T-bills.
  - About 40 percent in 1 to 3-year bonds.
  - About 15 percent in 4-year or greater bonds.
  - Authorities are assumed to mobilize greater amounts with longer maturities as the regional debt market develops over the medium term.
- External vs. domestic financing:
  - The remainder of the deficit is assumed to be financed via external debt, on gradually less generous terms.
  - Non-concessional borrowing will expand to an average of around 35 percent of total external borrowing.
  - Baseline considers IDA20 financing from the World Bank, projected to average US$460 million per year over the medium term.
  - Footnote: IDA20 financing details are adjusted consistent with BFA non-small state status and assumed reclassification under the 50-year credit category for the first five years, with regular IDA terms afterwards.

### Current account and external risks
- Current account trajectory:
  - Current account deficit worsened from 5.0 percent in 2023 to an estimated 5.7 percent of GDP in 2024.
  - Improvements anticipated in the short to medium term due to increases in gold prices.
- Risks to external stability:
  - Security and political situation may discourage private capital inflows.
  - Not pursuing a credible policy framework increases risks.

### Country classification and debt-carrying capacity
- Debt-carrying capacity:
  - Classified as ’medium’.
  - Composite Indicator (CI) index: 2.86.
  - Threshold for ‘strong’: 3.05.
- Indicative thresholds for the ‘medium’ category:
  - PV of external debt-to-GDP ratio: 40 percent.
  - PV of debt-to-exports ratio: 180 percent.
  - Debt service-to-exports ratio: 15 percent.
  - Debt service-to-revenue ratio: 18 percent.
  - PV of total public debt benchmark: 55 percent of GDP.
- CI score components (selected values preserved as presented):
  - CI Score: 2.86 (100% contribution).
  - CPIA coefficient and value: 0.385 and 3.45 producing 1.334 (46% contribution).
  - Real growth rate coefficient and value: 2.71 and 1.94 producing 0.124 (4% contribution).
  - Import coverage of reserves coefficient and value: 4.05 and 239.46 producing 21.60 (56% contribution).
  - Remittances, world economic growth, and other components listed in the calculation table contribute to the CI.

### Alternative scenarios and stress tests
- Fiscal downside (customized scenario) assumptions:
  - Projected disbursements of grants lowered from 1.1 percent of GDP to 0.4 percent of GDP in 2025.
  - Grants lowered to 0.2 percent in 2026.
  - Grants set to zero percent until the end of the scenario horizon.
  - Primary expenditure assumed 2.5 percent of GDP higher for the entire scenario horizon.
- Tailored commodity shock test:
  - Sudden and extreme 80-percent decline in prices for gold and all agricultural commodities.
  - Parallel increase in fuel import prices by 80 percent.
  - Rationale: commodities constituted 82 percent of export revenues over the previous three years.
- Standardized stress test results (high-level findings):
  - Export shock (nominal export growth set to historical average minus one standard deviation) has the largest negative impact on debt trajectory but does not breach thresholds.
  - Under the export shock, PV of debt-to-exports ratio reaches the low 90 percents in the 2030s but remains below the threshold of 180 percent.
  - Other shocks (real GDP growth, primary balance, one-time 30-percent depreciation of the CFAF, contingent liabilities, commodity price shock) do not lead to breaches of external debt thresholds.
  - Primary balance shock has the largest negative impact on the public debt trajectory among standardized tests and causes the PV of public debt-to-GDP to approach the 55 percent benchmark in 2027 but does not cause a sustained breach in the standardized test.

### External debt sustainability findings
- Baseline:
  - All external PPG debt indicators remain below policy-relevant thresholds in the baseline.
  - PV of external debt-to-GDP, external debt-to-exports, external debt service-to-exports, and external debt service-to-revenue are well below thresholds with generally declining trends over the medium term.
- Risk judgement:
  - Model signals low risk of external debt distress mechanically.
  - Staff judgement: risk of external debt distress is moderate (unchanged from previous DSA) due to security, fiscal, and export vulnerabilities.
  - Key vulnerabilities: escalation of the security crisis, decline in GDP, lower tax revenues, declining exports (including gold), higher military spending, reduced development partner support, increased reliance on expensive regional financing market, sudden drop in gold prices.

### Public debt sustainability findings
- Baseline public debt path:
  - PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio remains below the 55-percent benchmark and shows a moderate downward trend.
  - PV of debt-to-revenue and grants ratio expected to peak around 230 percent in 2025, then gradually decrease.
  - Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio estimated to peak around 70 percent by 2029, given relatively short maturity of domestic financing—raising liquidity and rollover concerns.
  - Domestic debt service over government revenue could substantially increase; net domestic debt issuance as a ratio of GDP could turn negative due to rollover of existing domestic debt.
- Stress test nuances:
  - Standard deviation shock to the primary balance causes the PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio to approach the 55 percent benchmark in 2027 but does not result in a sustained breach in that test.
  - In two alternative scenarios, benchmarks would be breached:
    - Scenario keeping key variables at five-year historical averages: PV of public debt-to-GDP would breach 55 percent starting in 2030.
    - Fiscal downside scenario: PV of debt-to-GDP would be breached starting in 2031.
  - Domestic debt service—particularly amortization—is larger than indicative thresholds, and the domestic debt-to-GDP ratio remains higher than international standards for the next ten years.
- Overall judgement:
  - Mechanical indicators point to low overall risk of public debt distress.
  - Staff judgement: risk of public debt distress is moderate because two alternative scenarios and domestic debt rollover/liquidity concerns reflect important downside risks.

### Conclusions and policy implications
- Overall risk assessment:
  - Risks of external debt distress and overall debt distress remain moderate.
  - Debt-carrying capacity classification: ’medium’.
  - Mechanical indicators: low overall risk of debt distress.
  - Judgement applied due to dependence on gold exports, fiscal downside risks, domestic debt rollover, and volatile security situation.
- Policy priorities and risks to address to avoid deterioration of the debt rating:
  - (i) Expenditures required to address food insecurity and the humanitarian crisis.
  - (ii) Expenditures required to contain the security crisis.
  - (iii) Risks from limited donor support, with a large proportion of debt having short maturities—vulnerable to rollover and liquidity risks.
  - (iv) Increased reliance on the expensive regional financing market.
  - (v) Undiversified export base with high vulnerability to gold price shocks.
- Granularity assessment:
  - Burkina Faso assessed as having substantial space to absorb shocks under the granularity assessment module.
  - None of the indicators breach thresholds under a median observed shock scenario; two indicators slightly pick up over the short term and all indicators decrease over the medium term.
  - Staff assess space to absorb shocks as limited because of downside risk from gold price movements, high domestic debt rollover requirements, and volatile security situation.
- Program relevance:
  - The alternative scenario based on five-year averages illustrates the importance of adhering to the ECF-supported program and its fiscal consolidation path for debt sustainability.

### Authorities’ views
- Authorities’ position:
  - They take note of the DSA conclusions.
  - They confirm that Burkina Faso's risk of debt distress remains maintained at a moderate level, unchanged from the previous fiscal year.
  - These findings are consistent with the authorities’ own analysis of public debt sustainability.

*Source: 1bfaea2025002-source-pdf - 7.7 percent for long-term bonds (as before) for 2024. For 2025, rates are assumed to go up to 9.7 percent for T-bills*

### 26. Efforts to prudently and sustainably manage public debt will thus be pursued with

### 1bfaea2025002-source-pdf - 26. Efforts to prudently and sustainably manage public debt will thus be pursued with

### Debt management strategy and policy priorities
- Efforts will be pursued with particular attention to strengthening control of the primary deficit.
- Effective implementation of the medium-term debt management strategy remains a priority.
- The strategy favors:
  - the use of concessional resources to finance the government's needs,
  - active liability management, with a view to improving the quality and maturity profile of the public debt portfolio.

### External debt sustainability — baseline metrics and projections (selected)
- External debt (nominal):
  - 2022: 26.0
  - 2023: 25.9
  - 2024: 25.4
  - 2025: 24.8
  - 2026: 24.0
  - 2027: 23.7
  - 2028: 23.3
  - 2029: 23.1
  - 2030: 22.9
  - 2035: 22.8
  - 2045: 19.8
  - Historical average: 23.7
  - Projections average: 23.2
- Change in external debt:
  - 2022: 0.4
  - 2023: -0.1
  - 2024: -0.6
  - 2025: -0.6
  - 2026: -0.7
  - 2027: -0.3
  - 2028: -0.4
  - 2029: -0.2
  - 2030: -0.1
  - 2035: 0.0
  - 2045: -2.2
- Identified net debt-creating flows:
  - 2022: 12.0
  - 2023: 3.4
  - 2024: 4.0
  - 2025: 3.2
  - 2026: 2.9
  - 2027: 3.3
  - 2028: 3.4
  - 2029: 4.1
  - 2030: 4.9
  - 2035: 4.5
  - 2045: 4.4
  - Historical average: 4.0
  - Projections average: 4.1
- Non-interest current account deficit:
  - 2022: 7.2
  - 2023: 4.6
  - 2024: 5.5
  - 2025: 3.1
  - 2026: 2.9
  - 2027: 3.2
  - 2028: 3.5
  - 2029: 4.2
  - 2030: 5.1
  - 2035: 4.9
  - 2045: 5.0
  - Historical average: 3.7
  - Projections average: 4.2
- Endogenous debt dynamics (contribution):
  - 2022: 1.4
  - 2023: -1.5
  - 2024: -3.0
  - 2025: -0.8
  - 2026: -0.9
  - 2027: -0.8
  - 2028: -0.9
  - 2029: -0.8
  - 2030: -0.9
  - 2035: -0.9
  - 2045: -0.8
- Residual:
  - 2022: -11.6
  - 2023: -3.5
  - 2024: -4.6
  - 2025: -3.8
  - 2026: -3.7
  - 2027: -3.7
  - 2028: -3.7
  - 2029: -4.4
  - 2030: -5.0
  - 2035: -4.5
  - 2045: -6.6
  - Historical average: -3.4
  - Projections average: -4.3
- Sustainability indicators (selected):
  - PV of PPG external debt-to-GDP ratio (selected years shown): 16.5, 16.1, 15.1, 14.4, 13.8, 13.4, 13.4, 14.1, 13.7 (years correspond to projection sequence in table)
  - PV of PPG external debt-to-exports ratio (selected): 62.7, 54.7, 51.9, 50.8, 50.0, 50.2, 52.8, 59.6, 67.9
  - PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (selected):
    - 2022: 3.7
    - 2023: 5.0
    - 2024: 4.9
    - 2025: 5.1
    - 2026: 5.2
    - 2027: 4.8
    - 2028: 4.4
    - 2029: 4.3
    - 2030: 3.9
    - 2035: 3.4
    - 2045: 4.6
  - PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (selected):
    - 2022: 5.9
    - 2023: 7.1
    - 2024: 6.2
    - 2025: 7.5
    - 2026: 7.6
    - 2027: 6.6
    - 2028: 5.8
    - 2029: 5.5
    - 2030: 4.7
    - 2035: 3.6
    - 2045: 4.0
- Gross external financing need (Billion of U.S. dollars):
  - 2022: 2.2
  - 2023: 1.3
  - 2024: 1.9
  - 2025: 1.3
  - 2026: 1.4
  - 2027: 1.6
  - 2028: 1.7
  - 2029: 2.0
  - 2030: 2.4
  - 2035: 3.1
  - 2045: 6.5

### Key macroeconomic assumptions (selected)
- Real GDP growth (in percent):
  - 2022: 1.5
  - 2023: 3.0
  - 2024: 5.0
  - 2025: 4.2
  - 2026: 4.9
  - 2027: 4.7
  - 2028: 4.7
  - 2029: 4.7
  - 2030: 4.9
  - 2035: 5.1
  - 2045: 5.4
  - Historical average: 4.7
  - Projections average: 4.8
- GDP deflator in US dollar terms (change in percent):
  - 2022: -5.7
  - 2023: 4.7
  - 2024: 9.0
  - 2025: 1.1
  - 2026: 3.7
  - 2027: 3.2
  - 2028: 2.7
  - 2029: 2.3
  - 2030: 2.3
  - 2035: 2.3
  - 2045: 2.3
  - Historical average: 0.9
  - Projections average: 2.4
- Effective interest rate (percent):
  - 2022: 0.9
  - 2023: 1.7
  - 2024: 1.0
  - 2025: 1.1
  - 2026: 1.0
  - 2027: 0.9
  - 2028: 0.8
  - 2029: 0.8
  - 2030: 0.8
  - 2035: 1.0
  - 2045: 1.4
  - Historical average: 1.0
  - Projections average: 0.9
- Growth of exports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent):
  - 2022: -6.6
  - 2023: 1.5
  - 2024: 3.4
  - 2025: 17.9
  - 2026: 7.7
  - 2027: 5.5
  - 2028: 4.5
  - 2029: 3.2
  - 2030: 2.3
  - 2035: 5.9
  - 2045: 6.0
  - Historical average: 7.3
  - Projections average: 6.4
- Growth of imports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent):
  - 2022: 16.1
  - 2023: 0.9
  - 2024: 6.9
  - 2025: 5.6
  - 2026: 6.7
  - 2027: 6.8
  - 2028: 6.6
  - 2029: 6.0
  - 2030: 6.3
  - 2035: 6.2
  - 2045: 6.6
  - Historical average: 5.9
  - Projections average: 6.3
- Grant element of new public sector borrowing (in percent) — selected:
  - 56.5, 57.5, 56.7, 59.9, 56.7, 42.5, 39.3, #DIV/0!, ... , 48.4 (as shown in table)
- Government revenues (excluding grants, in percent of GDP):
  - 2022: 19.5
  - 2023: 20.6
  - 2024: 20.6
  - 2025: 19.8
  - 2026: 20.1
  - 2027: 20.4
  - 2028: 20.8
  - 2029: 20.9
  - 2030: 21.1
  - 2035: 21.9
  - 2045: 23.5
  - Historical average: 17.9
  - Projections average: 21.0
- Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of GDP):
  - Selected projection values: 2.6, 2.6, 2.6, 2.5, 2.4, 2.1, 1.8, ..., 2.2
- Nominal GDP (Billion of US dollars) — selected:
  - 2022: 19
  - 2023: 20
  - 2024: 23
  - 2025: 25
  - 2026: 27
  - 2027: 29
  - 2028: 31
  - 2029: 33
  - 2030: 36
  - 2035: 51
  - 2045: 106
- Nominal dollar GDP growth:
  - 2022: -4.3
  - 2023: 7.8
  - 2024: 14.4
  - 2025: 5.4
  - 2026: 8.8
  - 2027: 8.1
  - 2028: 7.6
  - 2029: 7.1
  - 2030: 7.3
  - 2035: 7.4
  - 2045: 7.8
  - Historical average: 5.6
  - Projections average: 7.4

### Public debt sustainability — baseline metrics and projections (selected)
- Public sector debt (percent of GDP):
  - 2022: 58.5
  - 2023: 56.2
  - 2024: 56.9
  - 2025: 56.1
  - 2026: 54.9
  - 2027: 53.9
  - 2028: 52.9
  - 2029: 52.2
  - 2030: 51.4
  - 2035: 48.4
  - 2045: 19.1
  - Historical average: 44.9
  - Projections average: 51.7
- Change in public sector debt:
  - 2022: 3.1
  - 2023: -2.3
  - 2024: 0.7
  - 2025: -0.9
  - 2026: -1.1
  - 2027: -1.0
  - 2028: -1.0
  - 2029: -0.7
  - 2030: -0.7
  - 2035: -0.5
  - 2045: -25.6
- Identified debt-creating flows (selected):
  - 2022: 8.3
  - 2023: 3.1
  - 2024: - (table shows a dash for 2024)
  - 2025: 0.8
  - 2026: -0.5
  - 2027: -0.7
  - 2028: -0.8
  - 2029: -0.7
  - 2030: -0.5
  - 2035: -0.5
  - 2045: 0.0
- Primary deficit:
  - 2022: 8.8
  - 2023: 4.5
  - 2024: 3.6
  - 2025: 1.8
  - 2026: 1.3
  - 2027: 0.6
  - 2028: 0.6
  - 2029: 0.9
  - 2030: 1.0
  - 2035: 1.0
  - 2045: -24.2
  - Historical average: 4.2
  - Projections average: 1.0
- Revenue and grants (percent of GDP):
  - 2022: 21.7
  - 2023: 22.3
  - 2024: 21.9
  - 2025: 21.0
  - 2026: 21.2
  - 2027: 21.6
  - 2028: 21.9
  - 2029: 22.1
  - 2030: 22.2
  - 2035: 22.9
  - 2045: 24.2
- Automatic debt dynamics:
  - 2022: -0.5
  - 2023: -1.3
  - 2024: -4.4
  - 2025: -2.2
  - 2026: -2.0
  - 2027: -1.4
  - 2028: -1.3
  - 2029: -1.3
  - 2030: -1.5
  - 2035: -1.0
  - 2045: -0.9
- Contribution from interest rate/growth differential:
  - 2022: -2.4
  - 2023: -1.0
  - 2024: -3.8
  - 2025: -2.2
  - 2026: -2.0
  - 2027: -1.4
  - 2028: -1.3
  - 2029: -1.3
  - 2030: -1.5
  - 2035: -1.0
  - 2045: -0.9
- Contribution from average real interest rate (selected):
  - 2022: -1.6
  - 2023: 0.7
  - 2024: -1.2
  - 2025: 0.0
  - 2026: 0.7
  - 2027: 1.0
  - 2028: 1.2
  - 2029: 1.0
  - 2030: 1.0
  - 2035: 1.4
  - 2045: 1.4
- Residual (public debt table):
  - 2022: -5.2
  - 2023: -5.4
  - 2024: 1.5
  - 2025: -0.4
  - 2026: -0.4
  - 2027: -0.2
  - 2028: -0.4
  - 2029: -0.3
  - 2030: -0.2
  - 2035: -0.6
  - 2045: -0.5
  - Historical average: 0.5
  - Projections average: -0.4
- Sustainability indicators (selected):
  - PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio (selected projection values): 48.6, 47.4, 46.0, 44.7, 43.4, 42.5, 41.9, 39.7, 13.1
  - PV of public debt-to-revenue and grants ratio (selected): 222.2, 225.8, 216.6, 207.3, 198.2, 192.4, 188.4, 173.4, 54.0
  - Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio (selected):
    - 2022: 41.2
    - 2023: 41.1
    - 2024: 34.3
    - 2025: 45.5
    - 2026: 59.3
    - 2027: 64.5
    - 2028: 70.2
    - 2029: 71.8
    - 2030: 66.7
    - 2035: 48.9
    - 2045: 35.1
  - Gross financing need:
    - 2022: 11.4
    - 2023: 15.9
    - 2024: 9.0
    - 2025: 11.3
    - 2026: 13.9
    - 2027: 14.6
    - 2028: 16.0
    - 2029: 16.7
    - 2030: 15.8
    - 2035: 12.2
    - 2045: -15.7

### Sensitivity analysis, stress tests, and tail risks (overview)
- Table 2 and Table 4 present sensitivity analysis for key indicators of PPG external debt and public debt under alternative scenarios (2025–2035).
- Alternative scenarios include:
  - A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2025-2035.
  - A2. Alternative Scenario: Fiscal downside.
- Bound tests include shocks to:
  - B1. Real GDP growth
  - B2. Primary balance
  - B3. Exports
  - B4. Other flows (official and private transfers and FDI)
  - B5. Depreciation
  - B6. Combination of B1–B5
- Tailored tests include:
  - C1. Combined contingent liabilities
  - C2. Natural disaster (marked n.a. where not applicable)
  - C3. Commodity price shock
  - C4. Market financing (marked n.a. where not applicable)
- Examples of stress outcomes (selected indicators and features reported):
  - Debt service-to-exports ratio, Debt service-to-revenue ratio, PV of Debt-to-exports ratio, PV of Debt-to-GDP ratio are plotted under alternative scenarios and “most extreme shock” identification rules.
  - Note on methodology: All additional financing needs generated by the shocks under the stress tests are assumed to be covered by PPG external MLT debt in the external DSA. Default terms of marginal debt are based on baseline 10-year projections.
  - The “most extreme shock” is the stress test that yields the highest ratio in or before 2035; one-off breaches are treated per the stated rule in the figures.

### Indicators of domestic public debt and borrowing assumptions (selected)
- Figures show:
  - Domestic Debt-to-GDP ratio trajectory (historical and projected to 2035).
  - Domestic Debt Service to Revenues incl. Grants.
  - Net domestic debt issuance (estimate methodology described in note).
- Borrowing assumptions (average over 10-year projection) reported include shares in new domestic debt issuance and median projected values for maturity, grace periods, and interest rates (figures provide cross-country medians and Burkina Faso-specific projections).

### Qualification and risk space
- Figure 6: Qualification of the Moderate Category, 2025–2035 — thresholds and indicator trajectories are reported for:
  - PV debt/GDP (x = 20 percent)
  - PV debt/exports (y = 40 percent)
  - Debt service/Exports (x = 12 percent)
  - Debt service/Revenue (y = 35 percent)
- The figure maps “Some space”, “Substantial space”, and “Limited space” across debt indicators for the projection horizon.

### Key policy implications and recommendations (implied by analysis)
- Strengthen control of the primary deficit to support debt sustainability.
- Continue effective implementation of the medium-term debt management strategy prioritizing concessional financing and active liability management to improve debt quality and maturity structure.
- Maintain monitoring and stress-testing of debt indicators under alternative macro-fiscal and tail-risk scenarios (real GDP, primary balance, exports, commodity prices, contingent liabilities) given sensitivity outcomes reported.

*Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections (tables and figures reproduced in the provided content).*

### 3.0 percent in 2023, driven by robust agricultural  output and services. Inflation increased to

### 3.0 percent in 2023, driven by robust agricultural  output and services. Inflation increased to

### Economic performance (2023–2024)
- Real GDP growth: 3.0 percent in 2023, driven by robust agricultural output and services.
- Inflation: 0.7 percent in 2023 and increased to 4.2 percent in 2024 on an annual average basis, primarily due to rising food prices.
- Current account deficit: increased from 5 per cent of GDP in 2023 to 5.7 per cent of GDP in 2024.
- External sector drivers: imports of capital goods and a decline in cotton export proceeds outweighed the increase in gold price and exports.

### Outlook, challenges, and risks
- Authorities’ projection: GDP to grow by 6 percent in 2025, supported by gains in security and a favorable agropastoral season.
- External risks: heightened geo-strategic tensions; shifting global trade policy landscape; regional and global capital markets expected to remain tight; external shocks including recurring extreme climate events and fluctuations in commodity prices.
- Domestic priorities: restoring security; addressing humanitarian and social spending pressures.
- Risk management: authorities monitoring risks and implementing contingency plans and ECF-supported reforms.

### ECF Program implementation (third review)
- Overall assessment: program implementation remained satisfactory; all prior actions were met.
- Performance criteria: Four of the six performance criteria were met, including:
  - external debt ceilings,
  - non-accumulation of new external arrears,
  - limits on guarantees on loans to suppliers,
  - bank prefinancing of public investments.
- Missed criteria: ceilings on the primary deficit and related domestic financing were missed due to one-off priority capital expenditures; authorities took corrective actions to realign with program objectives.
- Revenue performance: registered 20.6 per cent of GDP of total revenue in 2024, higher than projected.
- Social spending: technically the floor on current social spending was not met, but authorities increased by more than 10 percent the expenditure aimed at reducing poverty and inequality.
- Social protection delivery: Single Social Register (RSU) pursued to cover 277,220 vulnerable households representing more than 1,7 million people across 21 urban and 54 rural municipalities.
- New programs: launched the Program for Empowerment of Poor and Vulnerable Households (PAMPV); progress made to operationalize the universal health insurance system (RAMU).
- Fiscal ceilings observed: program ceilings on primary current expenditure, including the wage bill (contained below 50 per cent of revenues and on a declining path), and contractual arrangements for PPPs were observed.
- Structural reforms highlighted as cornerstones of the ECF program:
  i) Establishment of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) and operationalization of the Treasury Deposit Bank (TDB).
  ii) Streamlining government financial operations, reducing waste, improving budget execution.
  iii) Implementing IMF Governance Diagnostic Assessment recommendations to improve fiscal governance and transparency.
  iv) Rationalizing energy subsidies and improving energy sector efficiency; promoting renewable energy sources.

### Medium-term policies and reforms (rest of 2025 and beyond)
- Strategic guidance: policies will be guided by the National Development Strategy (PA-SD) along four strategic pillars.
- Pillar 1 — Security:
  - 71 percent of the territory now back under full governmental control.
  - Continued strengthening of security forces and coordination with international partners.
- Pillar 2 — Humanitarian response:
  - Scale up delivery of food, water, and medical supplies to internally displaced persons (IDPs).
  - Government response has facilitated voluntary return of more than 1 million IDPs to their region of origin.
- Pillar 3 — Rebuilding institutions and governance:
  - Implement reforms to strengthen public institutions and improve service delivery.
  - Strengthen anti-corruption frameworks and public financial management.
- Pillar 4 — National reconciliation and social cohesion:
  - Promote initiatives for reconciliation and recovery among conflict-affected communities.
- ECF program medium-term aims within PA-SD:
  i) Create fiscal space for priority spending and reduce debt vulnerability.
  ii) Strengthen resilience to shocks while reducing poverty and inequality.
  iii) Improve fiscal discipline and governance.

### Fiscal policy (medium term)
- Revenue mobilization target: mobilize an additional 0.5 per cent of GDP a year in 2025 through the strategic plan for revenue mobilization.
- Revenue measures: broaden tax base by removing tax exemptions; enhance taxation of new sectors including real estate; permanent new tax policy reforms; leverage digitalization for tax and customs administration efficiency.
- Spending measures: improve spending efficiency and allocation toward priority sectors; pursue RSU roll out to better target social spending; scale up hydrocarbon subsidy control; strengthen social safety nets via PAMPV and RAMU with support from development partners, including the World Bank.
- Debt strategy: three axes —
  - mobilizing domestic resources and concessional resources;
  - lengthening maturities and lowering debt service through liability management;
  - maintaining prudent borrowing policies with quantitative limits on non-concessional borrowing and contracting of PPPs.
- Arrears plan: implement arrear clearance plans to clear all domestic arrears by end-2025.

### Monetary and financial sector policies
- Monetary policy governance: BCEAO (regional Central Bank of West African States) oversees monetary policy for WAEMU including Burkina Faso; mandate to maintain price and external stability.
- Policy rate: after tightening, Monetary Policy Committee decided to lower the policy rate by 25 basis point to 3.25 per cent.
- Banking sector: remains sound overall; authorities and WAEMU Banking commission closely monitoring banks for regulatory compliance.
  - Regional and global tightening and insecurity reduced outstanding credit and financial soundness indicators for some small banks.
  - Capital adequacy requirement: doubled effective January 1st, 2024; all banks are either compliant or have mandatory plans approved to gradually comply by 2026.
  - Domestic arrears clearance plans expected to strengthen the banking system.
- AML-CFT progress: 94.5 percent of the action items have been implemented to date; authorities making good progress on the two remaining action items to be removed from the FATF’s grey list.
- Financial inclusion: focus on improving access to financial services for SMEs and rural populations via regional financial inclusion strategy, financial literacy promotion, reducing gender disparities, and deploying services to underserved areas including those impacted by security.

### Structural reforms and sectoral priorities
- Economic diversification: promote manufacturing and services; progress in incubating industrial units and restructuring enterprises.
- Support for local production: support production and processing through the agency for promotion of Community Entrepreneurship.
- Mining sector: implement newly adopted mining code to leverage contribution to diversification and inclusive growth.
- Public investment: continue increasing public investment in roads, electricity, and internet access; invest in education and healthcare.
- Governance: prepare an action plan to implement IMF Governance diagnostic recommendations; publication of the Diagnostic report planned for end-June 2025.
- Energy sector reforms: implement tripartite performance contracts between Government and SONABHY and SONABEL; leverage IMF technical assistance.
- Climate and food security: implement sustainable agricultural practices and enhance resilience to climate-related shocks; authorities express interest in an IMF-supported arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility.

### Conclusion
- Authorities’ commitment: firmly committed to macroeconomic stability and sustainable development.
- Program track record: significant progress in implementing the ECF-supported arrangement despite challenges; broadly strong performance on prior actions, most quantitative criteria, and structural reforms; corrective actions taken where criteria were missed.
- Request: based on satisfactory program performance and commitment to sound policies, authorities seek Directors’ support for completion of the third review under the ECF arrangement and look forward to continued international partner support.

*Source: IMF staff report (content unit).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1bfaea2025002-source-pdf.pdf_