## 1civea2025001-print-pdf ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [1civea2025001-print-pdf](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1civea2025001-print-pdf.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1civea2025001-print-pdf.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1civea2025001-print-pdf.pdf.json) --- ### Executive summary and program status - EFF/ECF-supported program approved in May 2023 (400 percent of quota) and RSF arrangement (150 percent of quota) support macro stability and climate resilience. - Program implementation: - All end-June performance criteria and end-June, end-July and end-September structural benchmarks were met. - All reform measures under the RSF for this review (RM4, 8, 10 and 15) have been implemented. - Financing to be unlocked if reviews concluded: - 57.143 percent of quota (equivalent to SDR 371.657 million) under the EFF/ECF. - 37.5 percent of quota (equivalent to SDR 243.9 million) under the RSF. - Modification requested: exclude potential future debt management operations (DMOs) from the definition of external debt for the QPC on the ceiling on the present value of external debt. ### Macroeconomic outlook and growth - 2024 projections and near-term performance: - Real GDP growth: 6.1 percent in 2024 (slightly below 2023 outturn). - Cocoa production projected to increase by 12.5 percent as El Niño wanes. - Growth drivers include mining and energy production (Baleine field onstream August 2023), telecommunication, and transportation. - Medium-term projections: - Average growth of 6.7 percent over 2025–2029, then gradually converging to potential of around 6 percent. - Real GDP growth series (selected): 2021: 7.1; 2022: 6.2; 2023: 6.2; 2024: 6.1; 2025: 6.3; 2026: 6.3; 2027: 7.5; 2028: 7.0; 2029: 6.5. - Inflation: - Headline annual average CPI: 2022: 5.2 percent (yoy); 2023: 4.4 percent (yoy). - Expected to decline to 4 percent (yoy) by end-2024 and fall within BCEAO’s 1 to 3 percent target range by 2025. - CPI annual average projections: 2024: 4.0; 2025: 3.0; 2026: 2.2; 2027–2029: 2.0. ### Fiscal consolidation, revenue mobilization, and 2025 budget - Fiscal targets: - Fiscal deficit: 6.8 percent of GDP in 2022; 5.2 percent of GDP in 2023; targeted 4.0 percent of GDP in 2024; converge to 3 percent of GDP by 2025. - Tax revenue targets: increase to 15.4 percent of GDP in 2025 (from 14.4 percent of GDP in 2024). - 2024–2025 revenue measures and expected yields: - Commitment to implement tax policy and revenue administration measures amounting to an additional 0.5 percent of GDP of revenue in each of 2024 and 2025. - For 2024, an additional 0.2 percent of GDP in revenue administration measures identified due to implementation delays. - Text Table thematic breakdown (totals preserved): Tax Policy: 0.19; Tax Administration: 0.32; Continuing digitalization efforts: 0.19; Tobacco excise tax and traceability: 0.09; Rationalizing tax exemptions and increases in existing tax rates: 0.08; Property tax reforms: 0.06; Continuing compliance and declaration regime improvements: 0.05; Instituting mixed brigades and expanding border and port controls: 0.04; Total: 0.51. - Key 2025 tax policy measures (selected and preserved): - Introduce electronic invoicing and use artificial intelligence in risk analysis. - Increase excise taxes on tobacco from 41 to 70 percent and implement tobacco traceability. - Rationalize tax exemptions and increase existing tax rates on gold production by 2 percentage points. - Introduce tax on profits of online betting operations. - Apply market valuation for property taxes on both built and unbuilt land (end-May 2025 SB). - Improve estimates of tax expenditures from the Investment Code (end-September 2025 SB). - 2025 expenditure composition and efficiency: - Total expenditure in 2025 expected at 20.7 percent of GDP (a 0.1 percent reduction relative to 2024). - Capital expenditure: 6.7 percent of GDP in 2025 (down from 7.2 percent of GDP in 2024). - Wage bill curtailment target: reduce by 0.1 percent of GDP with a hiring rule of one new public servant for every two retirees (except health and education). - Election-related security spending: 0.3 percentage points increase in 2025. ### Medium-Term Revenue Strategy (MTRS) and tax reform agenda - MTRS approved May 2024; objectives: - Secure transformation towards upper-middle-income status. - Self-sustaining revenue mobilization and gradual move towards WAEMU tax revenue-to-GDP norm of 20 percent over medium to long term. - Planned tax policy enhancements: - Overhaul the General Tax Code and revise tax procedures. - Gradual convergence of excise taxes to the WAEMU excise tax standard. - Strengthen transfer pricing and documentation requirements. - Introduce taxation on e-commerce and consolidate the SME taxation regime. - Implementation priorities and technical assistance horizons: - Tax Policy Unit capacity building: FY 2024/25. - National minimum corporate income tax of 15 percent: FY2025/2026. - Property tax reforms and VAT exemption rationalization: FY2025/2026. - Continued digitalization and strengthening of tax/customs governance. ### Informality, inclusion, and gender dynamics - Scale and impact: - Informal employment: around 92 percent of total employment in 2022. - Informal production: roughly half of GDP (official estimates and studies). - Informality is significantly above the LMIC share of 35 percent. - Gender-specific indicators and impacts: - Only 37 percent of women have bank accounts (a 27-point gap relative to men). - 95 percent of women in the labor force are in informal jobs (a 6-point gap relative to men) as of 2022. - Closing gender gaps in labor market (earnings, employment, hours) could boost GDP by about 9.3 percent (IMF Equity Gains Toolkit, 2019 data). - Fully closing the gender gap in labor force participation alone could boost GDP by about 12 percent (IMF Output Gains Toolkit, Percent 2022). - Policy and reform measures to reduce informality: - Integrated National Strategy for the Transition to the Formal Economy (SNIT-EF) pilot (2020–2024). - Social Security Plan for Self-Employed Workers (RSTI) to extend mandatory coverage to self-employed. - Pilot entrepreneur registration (San Pedro) registered 25,720 entrepreneurs; expansion planned in 2025 to multiple cities. - Financial inclusion actions: Financial Services Interoperability Platform launched July 22, 2024 (pilot involving 90 financial institutions), continued implementation of National Financial Inclusion strategy (SNIF) with mid-term review (May 2024) and a new 2025–2029 SNIF planned. ### Climate resilience, RSF reforms, and green finance - RSF pillars and commitments: - Six pillars balancing mitigation and adaptation, including integrating climate into PFM, strengthening governance, agricultural safeguards, green finance, hazard resilience, and emissions control. - Côte d’Ivoire pledges to reduce emissions by 30 percent below a business-as-usual trajectory by 2030 and increase renewable energy share to 45 percent of electricity production. - Selected RM achievements and timelines (preserved): - RM4: Decree creating National Commission in charge of Climate Change (CNLCC) adopted June 2024; first annual progress report adopted October 30, 2024. - RM8: Decree operationalizing Green Finance Platform and MRV system (October 2024); training and pilot capacity building October 2024. - RM10: Road design manual completed February 2024; pilot implementation report October 2024. - RM11: First energy auditors approved August 2024; energy labelling mandatory since July 15, 2024. - RM12/RM14: IMF TA requested October 2024 to elaborate carbon taxation strategy; Strategy on carbon taxation to be adopted by Government by end-December 2025 (RM14 timing: End of December 2025; 6th EFF/ECF review). - RM15: Integration of UNFCCC windows and environmental taxes into 2025 budget (End October 2024; MET). - RM16: Competitive procurement for at least 100 MW of solar capacity to be completed by end-December 2025. - Climate finance pipeline and needs: - NDC financing needs: about $22 billion; 300 projects identified representing about $16 billion; 53 projects bankable. - Authorities identified national portfolio of 315 projects totalling about US$16 billion; 53 priority bankable projects amounting to about US$13 billion. - Climate finance roundtable (July 5, 2024) engaged over 40 multilateral and private sector entities. - RSF disbursements (as presented): 2024 = 244; 2025 = 342; 2026 = 195; 2024-26 Cumulative = 5782 (note: value preserved as presented in source). ### Debt outlook, financing, and external sector - Debt risk and DSA: - Risk of debt distress: moderate. - Central government debt, gross (percent of GDP) series: 2021: 50.2; 2022: 56.6; 2023: 58.1; 2024: 59.3; 2025: 56.1; 2026: 54.3; 2027: 51.7; 2028: 51.2; 2029: 50.6. - PV of external debt-to-GDP expected to decrease from around 33 percent in 2024 to about 21 percent in 2034. - Debt management and operations: - January 2024 Eurobond issuance and DMO improved liquidity ratios; one-off spikes in debt-service indicators in 2024 due to DMO. - Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy favors domestic debt over external debt; preference for concessional and semi-concessional borrowing in 2025 with cap on present value of new external loans at US$4,238.1 million (2025). - Planned Debt-for-Development (D4D) swap using World Bank PBG: expected NPV savings about EUR 60 million and cash-flow relief up to EUR 300 million in 2025–2028 (operation not yet executed). - External financing plan and gaps (Billions of CFA francs, preserved values): - A. External Financing Requirements (2024-26 Cumulative): 13,628 - B. External Financing Sources (2024-26 Cumulative): 11,047 - C. Financing Gap (2024-26 Cumulative): 2,581 - D. Prospective Financing (2024-26 Cumulative): 2,581 - Financing gap coverage 2024-26 cumulative: bilateral creditors about CFAF 483 billion; World Bank about CFAF 426 billion; AfDB CFAF 150 billion; other multilateral creditors unspecified. - External sector and reserves: - Current account deficit: 2023: -7.9 percent of GDP; expected to narrow to -5.1 percent of GDP in 2024 and to -1.7 percent in 2025. - External reserves: remained at 3.3 months of prospective imports through October 2024; adequacy range for WAEMU: 4.0 to 6.0 months. - NIIP: -50 percent of GDP in 2023 (from -46 percent in 2022). - Exports (billions of CFA) and key components (selected): Exports f.o.b. 2024: 12,886; 2025: 15,148; cocoa 2025: 6,201; crude oil and refined products 2025: 1,932. ### Financial sector, banking soundness, and inclusion - Banking sector indicators: - Tier 1 capital ratio: 13.2 percent in December 2023 (from 12.9 percent in June 2023). - Non-performing loans to total loans (net of provisions): 7.3 percent (gross) and 2.8 percent (net) in December 2023. - Average lending rate: 8.5 percent at end-2023 (from 6.7 percent at end-2022). - Credit growth: decelerated to 7.6 percent in June 2024 from 16.2 percent at end-December 2023. - Financial inclusion and reforms: - Interoperable Instant Payment System launched by the BCEAO in July 2024. - National Financial Inclusion strategy mid-term review completed May 2024; new SNIF 2025–2029 planned. - Financial Soundness Indicators (2015–2023 highlights): CAR 2023: 13.9; Non-performing loans to gross loans 2023: 7.3; ROA 2023: 2.5; Liquid assets to total assets 2023: 26.1; Total loans to deposits 2023: 79.3. ### Public financial management, transparency, and PPPs - PFM and procurement: - E-procurement (SIGOMAP) utilization: over 80 percent for ordinary operations in H1 2024; SIGOMAP utilization rate end-July 2024: 89.6 percent. - Operationalization of TSA: about 700 accounts at commercial banks closed; another 344 accounts being reviewed for closure (status evolving). - SIGOMAP version 2 to reduce procurement timelines and sustain e-procurement usage. - PPPs and fiscal risk disclosure: - Government commits to publish annual assessment of fiscal risks related to PPP contracts and annual reviews of PPP portfolio (SB end-February 2025). - PPP portfolio includes 107 projects at various stages (May 2024). - Data transparency and dissemination: - Publish general government finance statistics (end-March 2025 SB) to align with e-GDDS and pursue SDDS participation by end-2025. - Quarterly central government debt data published within one quarter (Met end-September 2024). ### Risks, stress tests, and recommendations - Main risks (preserved and highlighted): - Regional security challenges and political cycle spending pressures ahead of October 2025 presidential elections. - Oil price volatility affecting petroleum tax revenues. - Adverse weather and crop disease risks to cocoa production. - Slower recovery in pooled regional FX reserves. - FATF grey listing impacts on confidence (Côte d’Ivoire added to FATF grey list October 2024). - Stress-test findings and vulnerabilities: - Tailored natural disaster (flooding) test: one-off 9 percentage points decline in real GDP growth → debt service-to-revenue would surge to 67 percent in 2026; PV of debt-to-GDP would spike to 61 percent in 2025. - Export shock and market financing shocks can breach key debt thresholds in stress scenarios; space to absorb shocks is limited. - Key policy recommendations: - Intensify domestic revenue mobilization and accelerate MTRS reform implementation. - Resolve AML/CFT implementation deficiencies swiftly to exit FATF grey list (beneficial ownership registry operational by September 2025; resolve UN targeted sanctions implementation by end-December 2025 SB). - Revamp the General Tax Code and consolidate SME taxation regime; introduce corporate income taxation and a national minimum profit tax. - Maintain strict expenditure prioritization and reprioritize capital expenditure if unforeseen spending needs arise. - Advance RSF reforms: integrate climate into PFM, strengthen climate governance, develop carbon taxation, and improve green-financing architecture. - Strengthen SOE governance, monitor SOE fiscal risks, and integrate SOE debt in public debt monitoring. - Continue active debt management and limit non-concessional external borrowing outside TMU allowances. ### Key statistics and selected fiscal, external, and social indicators (preserved) - Population (2021): 29 million. - Per capita GDP (2021): 2,445 USD. - Share of population below the poverty line (2021): 37.5%. - Nominal GDP (CFAF billions): 2023: 47,843; 2024: 52,356; 2025: 57,068; 2026: 61,876; 2027: 67,848; 2028: 74,049; 2029: 80,439. - Central government total revenue and grants (billions of CFA): 2024: 8,777; 2025: 10,138. - Total expenditure (billions of CFA): 2024: 10,898; 2025: 11,875. - Pro-poor spending total (annual, Billions of CFA francs): 2024: 3 404.8; 2025: 3 845.1. - Informal employment: around 92 percent of total employment in 2022. - Women, Business and the Law Index (WBL) 2023: 95.00. - Female labor force participation rate (Modeled ILO Estimate, 15+ yrs) 2023: 56.47. - Female employment-to-population ratio (15+ yrs) 2023: 54.75. - Female adults who own a financial institution account (latest year 2021): 13.82. - Maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births (Modeled Estimate 2020): 480.00. - NDC financing needs: about $22 billion; 300 projects identified representing about $16 billion; 53 projects bankable. *Executive Summary and excerpts from IMF staff report and supporting matrices as provided in the IMF staff report dated November 21, 2024.* ### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ### Context and macroeconomic stance - Côte d’Ivoire has emerged as a regional anchor of growth and stability, with steady implementation of economic reforms. - The EFF/ECF-supported program approved in May 2023 (400 percent of quota) has helped to safeguard macroeconomic stability and sustain a moderate rating of debt distress. - Growing climate challenges are being addressed under the recently approved RSF arrangement (150 percent of quota). - The authorities’ ongoing commitment to reforms under both programs is expected to support Côte d’Ivoire’s transformation towards upper middle-income status over the medium-term and enhance resilience to climate change. - Structural impediments remain, notably: - High and persistent informality, with informal employment cited at around 90 percent of total employment in 2022. - Gaps in gender equality and weaknesses in education and health outcomes. - Ahead of presidential elections in late 2025, the medium-term outlook is described as favorable and risks broadly balanced, reflected in recent sovereign credit rating upgrades (Standard and Poor’s upgrade to BB). ### Program performance, modifications, new conditionality, and risks - Program implementation is strong: - All end-June performance criteria and end-June, end-July and end-September structural benchmarks were met. - All reform measures under the RSF for this review (RM4, 8, 10 and 15) have been implemented. - The authorities request a modification of the QPC on the ceiling on the present value of external debt to exclude potential future debt management operations from the definition of external debt under the program. - Structural conditionality has been augmented to include new structural benchmarks on: - Domestic revenue mobilization, - Governance, - Data dissemination. - Program implementation risks are viewed as mitigated by Côte d’Ivoire’s strong track record, ownership, and firm commitment to home-grown program objectives. ### Main policy commitments and fiscal framework - Fiscal consolidation in 2024 and 2025 is underpinned by a commitment to implement tax policy and revenue administration measures amounting to an additional 0.5 percent of GDP of revenue in each year. - For 2024, implementation delays required the authorities to identify an additional 0.2 percent of GDP in revenue administration measures to safeguard achieving full-year targets. - Convergence to the 3 percent of GDP WAEMU fiscal deficit target is expected in 2025. - Fiscal consolidation in 2025 will be underpinned by increasing tax revenue to GDP to 15.4 percent, driven by new, permanent, and high-quality tax policy and administration measures. - The revenue effort: - Generates fiscal space and helps sustain the country’s moderate debt distress rating. - Is supported by active debt management. - Authorities are continuing efforts to incorporate into the budget revenues being collected by line ministries but not recorded in fiscal accounts, including environmental taxes. ### Domestic revenue mobilization and tax reform - Authorities are committed to boosting tax revenue into the medium term via the Medium-term Revenue Strategy (MTRS) approved in May 2024. - MTRS implementation will require continued significant engagement with stakeholders and technical assistance to overhaul the tax system to finance critical investments and priority spending. - Near-term scope exists to accelerate important MTRS reforms in corporate and SME taxation. ### Structural reforms, inclusion, and climate resilience - 2024 Article IV consultation reviewed structural reforms aimed at improving the business climate and increasing private sector involvement. - Priority areas for reforms include: - Enhancing governance (including in the energy sector), - Increasing human development and financial inclusion, - Further strengthening the AML/CFT framework and its implementation, - Investing in human capital and broader financial inclusion, - Building climate resilience. - Policy focus on reducing informality, including addressing gender inequality, is seen as supportive of the National Development Plan (NDP) and the objectives of programs beyond the EFF/ECF and RSF arrangements’ period. ### Reviews, financing access, and staff endorsement - Staff supports the authorities’ request for: - Completion of the third review of the EFF/ECF arrangement, - The second review of the RSF, - Conclusion of the 2024 Article IV consultation. - Completing these actions will unlock access of 57.143 percent of quota (equivalent to SDR 371.657 million) under the EFF/ECF, and 37.5 percent of quota (equivalent to SDR 243.9 million) under the RSF. _Executive Summary as provided in the IMF staff report dated November 21, 2024._ ### 3. Côte d’Ivoire’s economy continues to display resilience while imbalances have been ### 3. Côte d’Ivoire’s economy continues to display resilience while imbalances have been receding. ### Economic activity and growth - Staff projects 2024 real GDP growth at 6.1 percent, slightly below the outturn for 2023, reflecting weaker agricultural production, and construction activity in the first half of the year. - Cocoa production projected to increase by 12.5 percent as agriculture recovers with the waning of El Niño weather conditions. - Growth further supported by stronger mining and energy production, including investment to upgrade equipment and the Baleine oil field coming onstream in August 2023. - Robust activity expected in telecommunication and transportation. ### Inflation - Headline annual average CPI inflation fell from 5.2 percent year on year (yoy) in 2022 to 4.4 percent (yoy) in 2023, partly reflecting softening commodity prices. - Recent upward pressures from higher seasonal demand, heat waves affecting crop production, and higher electricity tariffs have affected food and energy prices. - Inflation expected to decline further to 4 percent (yoy) by the end of the year as key food and commodity prices continue to ease. ### Fiscal consolidation and public debt - Fiscal deficit fell from 6.8 percent of GDP in 2022 to 5.2 percent of GDP in 2023, on the back of strong upfront revenue measures. - Further revenue measures in 2024 are expected to support additional fiscal consolidation to 4 percent of GDP. - At end June, tax revenue reached 6.8 percent of GDP, about 0.7 percentage points of GDP higher than the average for the same period between 2016 and 2023. - Spending control generally maintained, though security spending marginally exceeded budgeted amounts. - Following a debt management operation (DMO) financed by the January 2024 Eurobond issuance, the debt sustainability rating was confirmed at moderate risk of debt distress without the use of judgement and the debt outlook improved mainly due to improved liquidity ratios. ### External sector, current account, and reserves - The 2023 current account deficit rose to around 7.9 percent of GDP. - Goods surplus rose to 2.4 percent of GDP in 2023 despite lower cocoa export volumes, but was more than offset by large services and primary income deficits related in part to scaling up of multinationals’ oil extraction investments. - Record-high cocoa prices, along with increased production prospects, expected to support export revenue in the second half of 2024 and help narrow the current account deficit to about 5.1 percent of GDP. - External reserves remained at 3.3 months of prospective imports through October 2024, broadly unchanged from their end-2023 level. - A declining current account deficit and an improved outlook for financial inflows in the region are expected to support a gradual rebuilding of regional external reserves and improve the country’s external position. ### Financial sector and credit - Banks remained solvent with the Tier 1 capital ratio improving to 13.2 percent in December 2023—from 12.9 percent in June 2023. - Ratios of non-performing loans to total loans (net of provisions) slightly increased from 7.2 (2.3) in June 2023 to 7.3 (2.8) percent in December 2023. - Credit concentration has declined. - Average lending rate rose to 8.5 percent at end-2023, from 6.7 percent at end-2022. - Growth of credit to the economy decelerated to 7.6 percent in June 2024, from 16.2 percent at end December 2023. ### Program performance and reform implementation - Under the EFF/ECF: All quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) and indicative targets (ITs) for end-June 2024 have been met. - Structural benchmarks (SBs) achieved include: - E-procurement used at over 80 percent for all ordinary operations during the first half of 2024, above the 50 percent threshold (July 2024 SB). - Automated VAT management module strengthened by incorporating control of VAT deduction collected at customs in June 2024 (June 2024 SB). - Updated quarterly publication of central government debt data posted on Côte d’Ivoire National Summary Data Page (September 2024 SB). - Ordinance issued to streamline provisions relating to exemptions linked to the investment code (September 2024 SB). - Under the RSF arrangement: The four Reform Measures (RMs) scheduled for the second review of the RSF were implemented. Key RSF reform achievements (selected) - RM4: Decree creating the National Commission in charge of Climate Change issues (CNLCC) adopted in June 2024; order in October 2024 specifying procedural guidelines and inclusion of disaster risk management; first annual progress report on climate change action adopted by the Council of Ministers on October 30, 2024, and published on the Ministry of Environment website. - RM8: Decree in October 2024 to operationalize the green finance platform by setting up a website with strategic documents, quantified targets, roles for financial instruments, donor involvement; designed a training and capacity building plan with pilot training in October; designed and operationalized a finance Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system based on the UNDP open-source model. - RM10: Completed a road design manual in February 2024 to incorporate climate change; October 2024 report on the pilot implementation in Greater Abidjan with recommendations on ongoing training, research on road materials, information sharing, traffic monitoring, and continuous climate data updates. - RM15: Continued integration of all funding, including UNFCCC windows, into the budget; most relevant state environmental taxes and earmarked fees moved to the 2025 budget except the water tax (expected to be integrated in the 2026 budget). Staff considers RM15 to be met. - RM13 follow-up: Decree promoting e-mobility adopted in May 2024 targeting a 10 percent share for e-vehicles by 2030. As of September 2024, more than 200 electric vehicles on the road and 60 charging stations installed in Abidjan and Bouaké; a platform named NEO installed to manage charging stations. ### Box: First Annual National Report on the Evaluation of Climate Action in Côte d'Ivoire (high-level highlights) - National context: Area of 322,462 km² and population of about 29.4 million; climate ranges from humid equatorial to semi-arid tropical with significant rainfall variability. - Scenario projections indicate potential GDP losses of 13 percent by 2050 due to climate impacts. - From 1990 to 2020, greenhouse gas (GHG) quintupled due to deforestation, forest degradation, and increases in energy and agriculture sectors. - Five sectors most vulnerable to climate change: agriculture, water, forestry, coastal zones, and health. Agriculture accounts for 14.3 percent of GDP. - Financing needs per the NDCs: about $22 billion for climate initiatives; 300 projects identified representing about $16 billion, of which 53 projects have feasibility studies and are bankable. - National initiatives: about 90 initiatives focused on sustainable practices and 180 initiatives underway to mitigate GHG emissions. - Main challenge: mobilize 78 percent of unmet financial needs, integrate private sector contributions, and expand decentralized energy production. - Main recommendations: - Short-term (Government): Implement the National Adaptation Plan, operationalize climate funding, strengthen legal frameworks, enhance governance, and build capacity on climate issues. - Short-term (Partners): Increase support for project feasibility studies. - Medium-term (Government): Establish a green financing framework, manage climate risks, and improve data sharing systems. - Medium-term (Private Sector): Support state financing and assist in project implementation. - Medium-term (Partners): Provide technical assistance for financing mobilization. - Long-term (Government): Operationalize fiscal incentives for low-carbon technologies, strengthen international partnerships for project financing, and promote clean technologies. - Long-term (Partners): Assist in mobilizing financial resources for climate projects. ### Outlook and risks - Medium-term growth outlook: Average growth of 6.7 percent over 2025–2029, before gradually converging to potential of around 6 percent. - Inflation expected to fall within the BCEAO’s 1 to 3 percent target range by 2025. - Fiscal deficit expected to converge to the WAEMU norm of 3 percent of GDP by 2025. - Current account deficit expected to narrow to 1.7 percent of GDP in 2025 and remain around 2.5 percent over the medium-term, supported by sustained high cocoa prices and further declines in import prices. - Investment in new oil fields expected to further boost FDI in 2024 and 2025; in the medium term, the country’s oil exports are projected to grow. *Source: IMF staff report excerpt.* ### 4.5 percent of GDP. Improved current and financial account trends will buoy the country’s ### 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 4.5 percent of GDP. Improved current and financial account trends will buoy the country’s ### Risks and upside scenarios - Risks remain balanced: - Regional security challenges and the political cycle could generate spending pressures and weigh on confidence. - Renewed oil price volatility could put pressure on tax revenue from petroleum products. - Adverse weather conditions and crop disease could adversely affect cocoa production. - Weaker-than-anticipated recovery in pooled regional FX reserves could weigh on investor confidence. - Changes in perceptions from the recent Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey listing could affect confidence. - Uncertainty and social tensions in the run up to the October 2025 presidential elections should not be ruled out. - Mitigants and upside developments: - Authorities committed to reducing non-priority spending to meet unforeseen additional security spending needs. - Authorities committed to undertake further pump price increases to avoid revenue losses. - Sustained high cocoa prices could boost disposable income, cocoa-related export and fiscal revenue. - More favorable financing conditions could materialize (recent credit ratings upgrade and Eurobond issuance). - Growth prospects could improve from higher than anticipated oil and gas extraction (notably a substantial discovery in the Calao field) and recent discovery of potentially substantial gold deposits. ### Authorities’ views - The authorities broadly concurred with the growth outlook and risks. - Noted significant potential from a rapid expansion of the hydrocarbon sector and committed to appropriate management of the associated national wealth. - Emphasized efforts addressing social priorities: access to social services, electrification, informality, and gender gaps. - Broad agreement on assessment of external shocks and commitment to regional economic and political stability. ### Medium-term outlook and program context (2021–29) - GDP growth will be boosted by oil and gas extraction and return to potential in the medium-term. - Inflation will converge to the BCEAO target range. - The external balance will narrow on the back of terms of trade gains. - Revenue-based fiscal consolidation will continue and debt will fall, though debt servicing cost will remain elevated. - Programmatic framework: EFF/ECF and RSF supported programs focus on domestic revenue mobilization, fiscal consolidation, debt sustainability, long-term financing for inclusive growth, and enhancing resilience to climate change. - Article IV discussions emphasized reducing informality, addressing gender inequality, and improving the business environment to support the National Development Plan (NDP). ### Increasing fiscal space — key findings and targets - 2024 fiscal outturns and targets: - Tax revenue is expected to reach 14.4 percent of GDP in 2024, a 0.8 percentage point increase relative to 2023. - Total expenditure is expected to be at 20.8 percent of GDP, a 0.7 percentage point reduction relative to 2023. - Revenue measures introduced in the 2024 budget are now expected to yield 0.3 percent of GDP. - Shortfall of 0.2 percent of GDP relative to initial program targets due mainly to implementation delays in property taxation and tobacco traceability. - Domestic debt servicing costs increased by 0.1 percent of GDP. - Overall subsidies and transfers expected to remain around 1.1 percent of GDP for the whole year, a roughly 0.4 percentage points of GDP reduction relative to 2023. - 2025 budget objectives and measures: - 2025 budget will deliver further revenue-based fiscal consolidation to reach the WAEMU deficit target of 3 percent of GDP. - Increase tax revenue by 1 percentage point to 15.4 percent of GDP. - Implementation of high-quality and permanent tax policy and administration measures amounting to 0.5 percent of GDP. - Planned measures include: - Continuing digitalization efforts through introducing electronic invoicing and using artificial intelligence in risk analysis. - Increasing excise taxes on tobacco from 41 to 70 percent, along with implementation of tobacco traceability. - Further rationalizing tax exemptions, increasing existing tax rates on gold production by 2 percentage points, and introducing a tax on profits of online betting operations. - Introducing adjustments in the general tax code using market valuation for property taxes on both built and unbuilt land (end-May 2025 SB) and capital gains on real estate transactions. - Continuing to expand voluntary compliance and implementation of declaration regime on salaries and social security contributions. - Instituting mixed tax and customs brigades and expanding border and port controls and surveillance. - Expected increase in tax revenue from exports of about 0.5 percent of GDP (from improved terms of trade and recovery in cocoa production) will contribute to achieving 15.4 percent of GDP in 2025. - 2025 expenditure and efficiency measures: - Expenditure in the 2025 budget is expected to be 20.7 percent of GDP, a 0.1 percent reduction relative to 2024. - Continued curtailment of the wage bill by 0.1 percent of GDP, with hiring rule of one new public servant for every two retirees (except for health and education). - Reduction in capital expenditure to 6.7 percent of GDP from 7.2 percent of GDP in 2024 (end of 2021-2025 NDP). - Offset by a 0.3 percentage points increase in election related security spending, along with a marginal increase in interest cost and subsidies and transfers associated with higher consumer demand for electricity production. - Authorities exploring ways to ensure sustained viability of the electricity sector, including strengthening the framework for tariff adjustments. - Revenue measure breakdown (by thematic category) — totals preserved: - Tax Policy: 0.19 - Tax Administration: 0.32 - Continuing digitalization efforts: 0.19 - Tobacco excise tax and traceability: 0.09 - Rationalizing tax exemptions and increases in existing tax rates: 0.08 - Property tax reforms: 0.06 - Continuing compliance and declaration regime improvements: 0.05 - Instituting mixed brigades and expanding border and port controls: 0.04 - Total: 0.51 ### Medium-term Tax Reform Strategy (MTRS) and public financial management - MTRS objectives: - Secure economic transformation towards upper-middle-income status. - Ensure revenue mobilization is self-sustaining. - Timeline for reforms to help achieve WAEMU norm of a tax revenue to GDP ratio of 20 percent over the medium to long term. - Planned tax policy enhancements: - Overhaul the tax code and revise tax procedures. - Gradual convergence of excise taxes to the WAEMU excise tax standard. - Strengthen transfer pricing and documentation requirements. - Introduce taxation on e-commerce. - Revenue administration and governance: - Boost public confidence by improving governance, autonomy, and efficiency of tax and customs agencies. - Strengthen capacity and continue digitalization reforms. - Improve estimates of tax expenditure, especially in the investment code (end-September 2025 SB), to prepare for rationalization of tax exemptions. - PFM and SOE governance enhancements: - Streamline nonpriority spending, increase cost efficiency, and prioritize spending. - Enhance SOE governance and accountability through performance contracts. - Operationalization of the treasury single account (TSA): about 700 accounts at commercial banks closed, another 344 accounts being reviewed for closure. - Operationalization of version 2 of the Integrated Management System for Public Procurement Operations (SIGOMAP) to reduce procurement timelines and sustain electronic procurement usage. - Authorities exploring frameworks for managing potentially large proceeds from higher oil and gas production. ### PPPs and data transparency - Public-Private Partnerships: - Continued pursuit of PPPs to maintain public investments while reducing near-term budgetary risks. - Government commits to improve published annual assessment of fiscal risks related to PPP contracts and publish annual reviews of the PPP portfolio (SB end-February 2025). - Plans to strengthen coordination between central administration and local governments, PPP management, and coherence between current expenditure and investment. - Data transparency: - Strategy to include into the budget revenues collected by line ministries and agencies to increase tax and non-tax revenues and boost fiscal account transparency. - Gaps in data dissemination and lags remain; closing gaps by publishing general government finance statistics (end-March 2025 SB) to align with e-GDDS and prospects for SDDS participation. ### Debt outlook - Côte d’Ivoire’s risk of debt distress remains moderate. - Public and external debt at moderate risk of debt distress. - After a DMO finalized in the first semester of 2024, authorities continue to strengthen debt outlook and manage debt portfolio to improve debt liquidity ratios (e.g., World Bank Policy Based Guarantee (PBG)). - Medium term debt strategy favors domestic debt over external debt. - Côte d’Ivoire has no external or domestic arrears. ### Building resilience to climate change (RSF reforms and climate finance) - RSF reforms: six pillars balanced between mitigation and adaptation to integrate climate into PFM, strengthen governance of climate policies, reinforce agricultural safeguards, create framework for green and sustainable financing, build resilience to climate hazards, and control/reduce greenhouse gas emissions. - Fund TA and donor support planned for integrating climate into PFM, public investment management, and development of a carbon taxation. - Climate finance roundtable (July 5, 2024) outcomes and pipeline: - Over 40 multilateral organizations and private sector financial entities attended and expressed interest. - Consultation process on six workstreams agreed. - Authorities identified a national portfolio of projects comprising 315 projects for a total cost of about US$16 billion. - Of those, 53 priority and bankable projects amounting to about US$13 billion in forestry and agriculture, energy, governance framework, circular economy, blue economy, and electric mobility. - Workstreams include budget support, project preparation facility, establishing a green bank/fund/blended facility, issuance of guaranteed green bonds, issuance of sustainability-linked bond and debt-for-nature swap, and finalizing the climate change law and governance structures. - RSF role: - RSF support key in transition to a greener growth model. - Côte d’Ivoire pledges to reduce emissions by 30 percent below a business-as-usual trajectory by 2030 and increase renewable energy’s share to 45 percent of electricity production. - Climate-related reforms (agriculture, urban development, transportation) to be integrated in the next NDP (2026-30). - Progress on RMs under RSF-supported program: - Terms of reference for Fund TA on carbon taxation related to RM12 sent in October 2024. - On RM1, a ministerial arrêté establishing tagging system for climate-related capital expenditure to be adopted in October 2025. - Preliminary work shared on RM6 and RM7; further work to strengthen taxonomy framework with possible Fund TA. - Authorities indicated they would request Fund TAs to establish quantitative analysis of climate-related budgetary risks for the fiscal risk statement in the 2026 budget (RM2). - Regarding RM11, first energy auditors approved in August 2024; five first entities to be audited will be selected before year-end. *Source: Excerpt from the provided IMF PDF content.* ### 20. High informality across a range of economic sectors poses major challenges for ### 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 20. High informality across a range of economic sectors poses major challenges for ### Extent and immediate economic and social impacts of informality - Informal employment in Côte d’Ivoire represents around 92 percent of total employment in 2022. - Informal production represents roughly half of GDP according to official estimates and other studies. - The share of informal production is significantly above the share of 35 percent in lower-middle-income countries (LMICs). - Informality exacerbates gender inequality: - Only 37 percent of women have bank accounts (a 27-point gap relative to men). - As of 2022, 95 percent of women in the labor force are in informal jobs (a 6-point gap relative to men). - Informality induces financial exclusion: informal firms and workers cannot post collateral for loans, limiting firm growth and household investment in education and skills. - Informality lowers potential growth by sustaining a large number of smaller, less productive firms that compete with formal firms and impede SME growth. ### Fiscal policy, productivity, and modeled counterfactuals (Box 3) - Informality interacts with fiscal policy: a complex tax system with high compliance costs can increase informality, while higher informality reduces tax effectiveness and revenue mobilization. - Staff counterfactual simulation exercises and key quantitative inputs: - Improvement in tax administration: the implicit cost of forsaking the VAT refund is estimated at about 5 percent of the average firm’s profits. - Improvement in infrastructure: over 80 percent of firms claim to experience at least one electrical outage in the typical month, with an estimated 2 percent of yearly revenues lost. - Increased enforcement: raising the probability that informal firms are discovered by tax authorities. - Estimated impacts of the counterfactual exercises: - All counterfactual exercises lead to a reduction in the share of informal labor between 20-40 percentage points, placing this share at a level comparable to most LMICs. - Formalization increases tax revenues through a broader tax base and raises GDP because formal firms are more productive. - Wages increase under tax administration and infrastructure improvements; wages drop under increased enforcement due to reduced labor demand among remaining informal firms. ### Informality, inclusive growth, gender, and debt sustainability (Box 4) - Lower informality can improve growth and debt sustainability by: - Improving gender equality and financial inclusion through digitalization, better access to health and education. - Simplifying labor regulations and strengthening social protection to facilitate transitions to formal employment. - Simplifying the tax system with fewer exemptions to reduce incentives for informality and widen the tax base. - Quantitative projections and claims: - Lowering labor informality to the level of LMICs could reduce informal output, increase fiscal revenues to 16 percent of GDP, enhance debt sustainability, and strengthen the trade balance. - Closing gender gaps in the labor market—in earnings, employment, and hours worked—could boost GDP by about 9.3 percent. - Gender-specific dynamics: - Financial exclusion is more pronounced for women; the informal sector overrepresents women due to limited education, restricted healthcare access, early marriage, and caregiving responsibilities. - Informality perpetuates a vicious loop of gender inequality, economic vulnerability, and entrenched poverty. ### Authorities’ strategy and ongoing measures - Government strategy to incentivize formalization focuses on: - Identifying informal sector actors to create a database of entrepreneurs, including artisans and agricultural professionals. - Localizing these actors with a geographic directory and sectoral clusters to improve business competitiveness and formalization. - Identifying barriers to formalization, categorizing them, and providing targeted solutions. - Providing support through professional training, expanding social and health insurance coverage, accompanying firms in registration by lowering administrative burdens through digitalization. - Promoting tax civic responsibility to encourage tax compliance. - Specific governance and financial sector actions: - The rate of asset declaration by public officials reached 84.4 percent at end-June 2024, and the authorities expect it to reach 90 percent by end-year 2024. - Côte d’Ivoire was added to the FATF grey list in October 2024, in part reflecting an insufficient implementation track-record. - Authorities agreed on an action plan with the FATF to address remaining strategic deficiencies and establish an effective implementation track-record within the next two years. Key timelines/commitments include: - Resolving deficiencies in the implementation of UN targeted financial sanctions (end-December 2025 SB). - Beneficial ownership registry to be fully operational by September 2025. - Placing financial and non-financial institutions under a risk-based AML/CFT supervision regime. - Stepping up investigations and prosecutions of ML/TF and key predicate offenses and enhancing financial intelligence capabilities. - Financial inclusion and infrastructure initiatives: - The authorities continue implementing the 2019-24 National Financial Inclusion strategy (SNIF); a mid-term review completed in May 2024 identified progress and remaining challenges in targeting women, youth, and the rural population. - Recommendations from the mid-term review will be integrated into the new 2025-2029 SNIF, expected to be published by the end of 2025. - Interoperable Instant Payment System launched by the BCEAO in July 2024 is expected to lower transaction costs, secure clearing and settlement of inter-network transactions, and provide diversified financial services. - Continuing implementation of the Financial Sector Development Strategy (FSDS), including fully operationalizing the credit bureau, is expected to further deepen the financial sector. ### Business environment and diversification priorities - Continued focus on improving the business environment is key for private sector-led growth; EFF/ECF-supported program reforms have targeted governance, financial access, and economic diversification. - Financial integrity and governance measures include implementing a national anti-corruption strategy and strengthening the asset declarations regime to ensure publication of declarations of officials in positions of higher corruption risk. - Financial sector considerations: - Banking sector broadly sound; restructuring of two non-systemic banks is near completion. - Need for financial deepening to reduce crowding out of private sector credit given significant government financing needs. - WAEMU financial sector assessment highlighted credit concentration and contagion risks; Côte d’Ivoire’s financial system indicators are in better position than the WAEMU average. - Economic diversification efforts: - Focus on increasing the economy’s share in the agricultural value chain, promoting processing of raw products, streamlining trade processes (including modernizing customs procedures), and attracting foreign investment through special economic zones. - Recognized risks of special economic zones: fiscal costs, potential distortionary effects, and uncertain spillovers to the local economy; need for further broad-based trade and investment-related reforms. - Trade and investment facilitation reforms underway include introduction of a single window for trade and measures to support regional integration within the AfCFTA. - Electrification, education, and labor force skills programs are foundational for industrialization and services sector growth. *Source: CÔTE D’IVOIRE — INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (provided content).* ### 28. The authorities continue to prioritize efforts to further improve financial integrity, ### 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 28. The authorities continue to prioritize efforts to further improve financial integrity, ### Financial integrity, governance, and business environment - The government is firmly committed to the AML/CFT framework in line with FATF recommendations and to exit the grey list as soon as possible by implementing the agreed FATF action plan. - The authorities are actively promoting financial access for women, having disbursed significant funds through various programs that have successfully enhanced women's financial autonomy and access to credit. - A new three-year reform agenda 2025-2027, based on concerns of the Ivorian private sector and international indices including the Business Ready (B-Ready) index (to be adopted at the end of 2024), focuses on improving business competitiveness and establishing streamlined operations through digital solutions. ### Program modalities and financing - Program monitoring and conditionality: - Program performance under the EFF/ECF arrangements will continue to be monitored through semi-annual reviews based on QPCs, ITs, (Table 9), and SBs (Table 10). - The TMU contains summary projection assumptions and serves as a basis for assessment of some performance. - The fifth and sixth semi-annual reviews will take place on or after November 15, 2025 and May 15, 2026 and will be based respectively on end-June 2025 and end-December 2025 test dates for periodic performance criteria and indicative targets. - QPCs and ITs were added for end-June and end-December 2025, as well as ITs for end-September 2025. - Modification proposed: exclude potential future DMOs from the definition of external debt in the TMU for the QPC on the ceiling on the present value of new external debt. - Structural conditionality has been augmented to include new SBs on DRM, governance, and data dissemination (Table 10). - Financing outlook and gaps: - The program under the EFF/ECF arrangements remains fully financed with financing assurances from multilateral and bilateral partners for the next 12 months and good prospects for the remainder of the program. - The cumulative financing gap projected for 2024-26 of about CFAF 2,514 billion will be covered by: - bilateral creditors: about CFAF 483 billion - the World Bank: about CFAF 426 billion - AfDB: CFAF 150 billion - other multilateral creditors (unspecified amounts) - Gross financing under the ECF/EFF supported program would continue to cover about 60 percent of the gap over 2024-26. - RSF supported program prospects for a stronger catalytic role are promising. - External Financing Requirements and Sources (Billions of CFA francs; rows and columns as in source): - A. External Financing Requirements: 2023 = 4,158; 2024 = 5,359; 2025 = 3,859; 2026 = 4,410; 2024-26 Cumulative = 13,628 - Current account deficit excl. official transfers: 2023 = 4,098; 2024 = 2,950; 2025 = 1,217; 2026 = 1,579; 2024-26 Cumulative = 5,746 - Official sector amortization + net acquisition of fin assets: 2023 = 1,209; 2024 = 2,592; 2025 = 1,413; 2026 = 1,499; 2024-26 Cumulative = 5,504 - of which: Fund repayments: 2023 = 196; 2024 = 289; 2025 = 226; 2026 = 155; 2024-26 Cumulative = 670 - Change in official reserves (without RSF, + = increase): 2023 = -1,149; 2024 = -183; 2025 = 1,229; 2026 = 1,332; 2024-26 Cumulative = 2,378 - B. External Financing Sources: 2023 = 2,990; 2024 = 4,302; 2025 = 2,816; 2026 = 3,930; 2024-26 Cumulative = 11,047 - Capital flows to private sector, net: 2023 = 801; 2024 = 1,322; 2025 = 1,057; 2026 = 1,790; 2024-26 Cumulative = 4,169 - Project financing: 2023 = 1,737; 2024 = 954; 2025 = 1,307; 2026 = 1,407; 2024-26 Cumulative = 3,668 - Capital transfers: 2023 = 117; 2024 = 50; 2025 = 68; 2026 = 106; 2024-26 Cumulative = 224 - Government gross borrowing from private sector: 2023 = 217; 2024 = 1,926; 2025 = 315; 2026 = 521; 2024-26 Cumulative = 2,762 - of which: Eurobonds: 2023 = 0; 2024 = 1,577; 2025 = 0; 2026 = 350; 2024-26 Cumulative = 1,927 - of which: other commercial: 2023 = 217; 2024 = 350; 2025 = 315; 2026 = 171; 2024-26 Cumulative = 835 - Official transfers (project grants only): 2023 = 117; 2024 = 50; 2025 = 68; 2026 = 106; 2024-26 Cumulative = 224 - C. Financing Gap (= A - B): 2023 = 1,168; 2024 = 1,057; 2025 = 1,044; 2026 = 480; 2024-26 Cumulative = 2,581 - D. Prospective Financing: 2023 = 1,168; 2024 = 1,057; 2025 = 1,044; 2026 = 480; 2024-26 Cumulative = 2,581 - IMF ECF/EFF: 2023 = 601; 2024 = 596; 2025 = 596; 2026 = 298; 2024-26 Cumulative = 1,489 - World Bank: 2023 = 182; 2024 = 187; 2025 = 120; 2026 = 119; 2024-26 Cumulative = 426 - AfDB: 2023 = 28; 2024 = 20; 2025 = 80; 2026 = 49; 2024-26 Cumulative = 150 - Other multilateral creditors: 2023 = 35; 2024 = 14; 2025 = 14; 2026 = 33; 2024-26 Cumulative = 97 (as per table headings) - Bilateral creditors: 2023 = 35; 2024 = 52; 2025 = 49; 2026 = 234; 2024-26 Cumulative = 483 - E. Exceptional Financing/Residual Gap (C - D): 2023 = 0; 2024 = 0; 2025 = 0; 2026 = 0; 2024-26 Cumulative = 0 - RSF disbursements: 2023 = 0; 2024 = 244; 2025 = 342; 2026 = 195; 2024-26 Cumulative = 5782 (note: as presented in source) - F. Reserve accumulation (with RSF): 2023 = -1,149; 2024 = 621; 2025 = 1,571; 2026 = 1,527; 2024-26 Cumulative = 3,160 - Memorandum Items: - Change in official reserves excl. all IMF financing: 2023 = -1,750; 2024 = -778; 2025 = 633; 2026 = 1,034; 2024-26 Cumulative = 888 - Nominal GDP: 2023 = 47,843; 2024 = 52,356; 2025 = 57,068; 2026 = 61,876; 2024-26 Cumulative = ... ### Capacity to repay the Fund and safeguards - Capacity to repay: - Capacity to repay the Fund remains adequate but subject to risks. - Elevated Fund credit outstanding and debt service indicators for government revenue and exports are mitigated by Côte d’Ivoire’s moderate risk of debt distress rating, solid economic fundamentals, and one of the best credit ratings in sub-Saharan Africa. - Enterprise and program risks appear manageable given satisfactory performance and strong commitment to program objectives. - Potential implementation risks associated with an election year are mitigated by even phasing of disbursements. - Outstanding Fund credit is projected to peak at just over 5 percent of GDP in 2026. - The IMF’s charges and surcharges reform, which took effect in November 2024, has reduced the charges and interest on existing and prospective Fund credit by an average of 15 percent over the medium term. - Safeguards assessment: - The latest safeguards assessment of the BCEAO, completed in August 2023, found that the central bank continues to have well-established audit arrangements and a strong control environment. - The BCEAO is addressing the safeguards assessment's recommendations to align its statute with changes in the 2019 cooperation agreement with France. ### Data, capacity development (CD), and technical assistance (TA) - Data provision is broadly adequate for surveillance. - Ongoing efforts under the program aim to: - Align the methodology of quarterly and annual national accounts data. - Expand coverage of government finance statistics and improve the timeliness of their publication (MEFP ¶68). - Support adherence to SDDS by end-2025. - CD strategy focus: - Fiscal-side TA will focus on implementing domestic revenue mobilization in line with the adoption of the MTRS in May 2024, better monitor fiscal risks of SOEs, and assist with implementation of RSF RMs by integrating climate change in selection, budgeting, and implementing investment budgets, and developing carbon taxation. - Ongoing TA will continue to improve coverage of SOEs in GFS and BOP statistics, disseminate the CPI, improve quarterly national accounts, expand coverage of the PPI, enhance governance and transparency, and implement priority reforms identified in the AML/CFT assessment. ### Staff appraisal, reform priorities, and recommendations - Staff appraisal summary: - Côte d’Ivoire is an anchor of growth and stability for the region despite challenges to long-run economic transformation. - The economy has shown resilience amid global and regional uncertainty; economic stability is being entrenched by authorities’ strong commitment to reform objectives. - High and persistent informality remains an obstacle to deeper economic transformation, expanding the tax base, and achieving higher, more inclusive growth. - Program status and fiscal targets: - The authorities’ economic program remains on track and appropriately focused; they met all performance criteria and structural benchmarks for the third review under the EFF/ECF, along with RSF reforms. - New program measures for domestic revenue mobilization informed by the MTRS will help boost tax revenue. - New governance and data dissemination structural benchmarks will increase transparency and enhance the effectiveness of the AML/CFT framework to aid swift removal from the FATF grey list. - Achieving a 3 percent fiscal deficit target by 2025 is within reach, supported by decisive revenue-based fiscal consolidation in 2024 and 2025. - Authorities identified additional tax and customs administration measures after lower-than-expected revenue yield during 2024H1. - These measures will support a reduction of the fiscal deficit to 4 percent of GDP in 2024, and a further 0.5 percent of GDP in tax policy and administration measures introduced in the 2025 budget will underpin reaching the WAEMU deficit target norm of 3 percent of GDP in the third year of the program. - Given regional security context and upcoming political cycle, it is critical to offset unforeseen demands for higher spending by reprioritization of capital expenditure to safeguard the deficit target amid tight regional financing conditions. - Key reform priorities and recommendations: - Resolve implementation deficiencies in the AML/CFT framework swiftly to facilitate removal from the FATF grey list. - Revamp the General Tax Code as a key MTRS objective to simplify the tax system and procedures, boost transparency and fairness. - Accelerate implementation of key MTRS reforms, including: - introduce corporate income taxation, - introduce a national minimum profit tax, - consolidate the SME taxation regime, - align sectoral codes with the general tax code, - further streamline costly investment code incentives. - Continue monitoring and periodic reporting on MTRS implementation and maintain internal and public communication on reform merits. - Advance RSF reforms to balance mitigation and adaptation, integrate climate into PFM (including budget tagging), strengthen governance of climate policies, reinforce safeguards for the agricultural sector, create a framework for green and sustainable financing, build resilience to climate hazards, control and reduce greenhouse gas emissions (notably through introduction of carbon taxation), strengthen the taxonomy framework, improve green-financing architecture, and develop a national disaster risk management framework. - Redouble efforts to address informality, increase financial inclusion and deepening, and strengthen the national anti-corruption strategy to solidify public trust. - Maintain focus on ensuring financial viability of the electricity sector to support development, industrialization, and economic diversification. - Financing approvals and access if reviews concluded: - Completion of the third review of the EFF/ECF arrangement, the second review of the RSF arrangement, and conclusion of the 2024 Article IV consultation will unlock: - 57.143 percent of quota (equivalent to SDR 371.657 million) under the EFF/ECF, - 37.5 percent of quota (equivalent to SDR 243.9 million) under the RSF. - Staff supports the authorities’ request for completion of these reviews. - Financing from the Fund will continue to have a strong catalytic role, and capacity to repay the Fund is adequate. - Risks to program implementation remain manageable given the authorities’ strong implementation track record under Fund supported programs. *Source: 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 28. The authorities continue to prioritize efforts to further improve financial integrity,* ### 42. Staff recommend that the next Article IV consultation be held on a 24-month cycle. ### 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 42. Staff recommend that the next Article IV consultation be held on a 24-month cycle. ### Article IV Consultation Recommendation - Staff recommend that the next Article IV consultation be held on a 24-month cycle. ### Selected Economic and Financial Indicators (highlights from Table 1) - Population (2021): 29 million - Per capita GDP (2021): 2,445 USD - Share of population below the poverty line (2021): 37.5% - Real GDP growth (GDP at constant prices, percent): 2021: 7.1; 2022: 6.2; 2023: 6.2; 2024: 6.1; 2025: 6.3; 2026: 6.3; 2027: 7.5; 2028: 7.0; 2029: 6.5 - Consumer price index (annual average): 2021: 4.2; 2022: 5.2; 2023: 4.4; 2024: 4.0; 2025: 3.0; 2026: 2.2; 2027: 2.0; 2028: 2.0; 2029: 2.0 - Current account balance (including official transfers, percent of GDP): 2021: -3.9; 2022: -7.7; 2023: -7.9; 2024: -5.1; 2025: -1.7; 2026: -2.4; 2027: -2.0; 2028: -2.6; 2029: -2.5 - Central government debt, gross (percent of GDP): 2021: 50.2; 2022: 56.6; 2023: 58.1; 2024: 59.3; 2025: 56.1; 2026: 54.3; 2027: 51.7; 2028: 51.2; 2029: 50.6 - Nominal GDP (CFAF billions): 2021: 40,367; 2022: 43,771; 2023: 47,843; 2024: 52,356; 2025: 57,068; 2026: 61,876; 2027: 67,848; 2028: 74,049; 2029: 80,439 - Nominal GDP per capita (US$): 2021: 2,478; 2022: 2,326; 2023: 2,537; 2024: 2,719; 2025: 2,902; 2026: 3,069; 2027: 3,266; 2028: 3,463; 2029: 3,657 ### Balance of Payments (Tables 2a & 2b — key figures) - Current account (billions of CFA): 2021: -1,593; 2022: -3,357; 2023: -3,781; 2024: -2,695; 2025: -987; 2026: -1,459; 2027: -1,377; 2028: -1,960; 2029: -1,990 - Exports, f.o.b. (billions of CFA): 2021: 8,491; 2022: 10,144; 2023: 10,577; 2024: 12,886; 2025: 15,148; 2026: 15,459; 2027: 17,322; 2028: 18,374; 2029: 19,656 - Of which cocoa (billions of CFA): 2021: 3,314; 2022: 3,087; 2023: 3,522; 2024: 4,729; 2025: 6,201; 2026: 5,534; 2027: 5,558; 2028: 5,607; 2029: 5,845 - Of which crude oil and refined oil products (billions of CFA): 2021: 954; 2022: 1,890; 2023: 1,755; 2024: 1,778; 2025: 1,932; 2026: 2,261; 2027: 3,243; 2028: 3,432; 2029: 3,618 - Imports, f.o.b. (billions of CFA): 2021: 6,799; 2022: 9,475; 2023: 9,382; 2024: 9,665; 2025: 10,028; 2026: 10,606; 2027: 11,439; 2028: 12,485; 2029: 13,132 - Services (net, billions of CFA): 2021: -1,670; 2022: -2,373; 2023: -2,727; 2024: -3,351; 2025: -3,367; 2026: -3,094; 2027: -3,325; 2028: -3,554; 2029: -3,861 - Capital and financial account (billions of CFA): 2021: 2,682; 2022: 2,601; 2023: 2,031; 2024: 1,916; 2025: 1,619; 2026: 2,493; 2027: 3,200; 2028: 3,681; 2029: 3,538 - Overall balance (billions of CFA): 2021: 1,011; 2022: -691; 2023: -1,750; 2024: -778; 2025: 633; 2026: 1,034; 2027: 1,823; 2028: 1,721; 2029: 1,548 - Memorandum (percent of GDP): Overall balance: 2021: 2.5; 2022: -1.6; 2023: -3.7; 2024: -1.5; 2025: 1.1; 2026: 1.7; 2027: 2.7; 2028: 2.3; 2029: 1.9 ### Fiscal Operations of the Central Government (Tables 3a & 3b — highlights) - Total revenue and grants (billions of CFA): 2021: 6,295; 2022: 6,684; 2023: 7,771; 2024: 8,777; 2025: 10,138; 2026: 11,217; 2027: 12,487; 2028: 13,801; 2029: 15,230 - Total revenue (billions of CFA): 2021: 6,110; 2022: 6,451; 2023: 7,454; 2024: 8,522; 2025: 9,870; 2026: 11,009; 2027: 12,338; 2028: 13,623; 2029: 15,053 - Tax revenue (billions of CFA): 2021: 5,251; 2022: 5,617; 2023: 6,508; 2024: 7,534; 2025: 8,804; 2026: 9,879; 2027: 11,097; 2028: 12,269; 2029: 13,582 - Total expenditure (billions of CFA): 2021: 8,257; 2022: 9,666; 2023: 10,279; 2024: 10,898; 2025: 11,875; 2026: 13,097; 2027: 14,514; 2028: 16,018; 2029: 17,639 - Current expenditure (billions of CFA): 2021: 5,930; 2022: 6,526; 2023: 7,022; 2024: 7,150; 2025: 8,037; 2026: 8,309; 2027: 9,124; 2028: 9,907; 2029: 10,951 - Capital expenditure (billions of CFA): 2021: 2,327; 2022: 3,141; 2023: 3,258; 2024: 3,747; 2025: 3,838; 2026: 4,788; 2027: 5,390; 2028: 6,111; 2029: 6,688 - Basic primary balance (billions of CFA): 2021: -429; 2022: -772; 2023: -47; 2024: -103; 2025: 880; 2026: 990; 2027: 963; 2028: 903; 2029: 1,023 - Overall balance, including grants (billions of CFA): 2021: -1,962; 2022: -2,982; 2023: -2,508; 2024: -2,120; 2025: -1,737; 2026: -1,880; 2027: -2,027; 2028: -2,217; 2029: -2,409 - Overall balance (percent of GDP): 2021: -4.9; 2022: -6.8; 2023: -5.2; 2024: -4.0; 2025: -3.0; 2026: -3.0; 2027: -3.0; 2028: -3.0; 2029: -3.0 - Financing (percent of GDP): 2021: 4.9; 2022: 7.1; 2023: 5.3; 2024: 0.7; 2025: 1.4; 2026: 2.3; 2027: 3.0; 2028: 3.0; 2029: 3.0 - Memorandum: Nominal GDP (billions of CFA): repeated as above. ### Monetary Developments (Table 4 highlights) - Broad money (billions of CFA): 2021: 15,487; 2022: 16,879; 2023: 17,440; 2024: 19,260; 2025: 21,468; 2026: 23,768; 2027: 26,677; 2028: 29,819; 2029: 33,194 - Net foreign assets (billions of CFA): 2021: 4,206; 2022: 3,886; 2023: 2,634; 2024: 2,679; 2025: 4,161; 2026: 5,615; 2027: 7,361; 2028: 9,077; 2029: 10,465 - Net domestic assets (billions of CFA): 2021: 11,281; 2022: 12,993; 2023: 14,806; 2024: 16,582; 2025: 17,307; 2026: 18,153; 2027: 19,316; 2028: 20,742; 2029: 22,729 - Credit to the economy (billions of CFA): 2021: 9,139; 2022: 9,807; 2023: 11,399; 2024: 12,766; 2025: 13,271; 2026: 13,819; 2027: 14,736; 2028: 15,703; 2029: 16,992 - Broad money growth (changes in percent of beginning-of-period broad money): 2021: 18.7; 2022: 9.0; 2023: 3.3; 2024: 10.4; 2025: 11.5; 2026: 10.7; 2027: 12.2; 2028: 11.8; 2029: 11.3 ### Financial Soundness Indicators (Table 5 — selected metrics, 2015–2023) - Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets (CAR): 2015: 8.7; 2016: 7.9; 2017: 9.0; 2018: 9.5; 2019: 10.5; 2020: 11.6; 2021: 12.6; 2022: 13.0; 2023: 13.9 - Non-performing loans to total gross loans: 2015: 10.4; 2016: 9.1; 2017: 9.8; 2018: 9.3; 2019: 8.4; 2020: 8.7; 2021: 8.7; 2022: 7.7; 2023: 7.3 - Return on assets (ROA) net of tax: 2015: 1.4; 2016: 1.6; 2017: 1.4; 2018: 1.3; 2019: 1.7; 2020: 1.5; 2021: 1.8; 2022: 1.7; 2023: 2.5 - Liquid assets to total assets: 2015: 35.5; 2016: 33.7; 2017: 32.0; 2018: 31.7; 2019: 29.6; 2020: 29.6; 2021: 28.7; 2022: 26.0; 2023: 26.1 - Total loans to total deposits: 2015: 84.1; 2016: 87.2; 2017: 89.5; 2018: 90.7; 2019: 87.2; 2020: 79.7; 2021: 73.8; 2022: 75.2; 2023: 79.3 ### Capacity to Repay the Fund (Table 6 — summary) - Fund obligations based on existing credit (Principal, millions of SDRs): 2024: 360.1; 2025: 281.8; 2026: 193.4; 2027: 193.1; 2028: 253.6; 2029: 289.4; continuing small scheduled principals through 2044. - Charges and interest (millions of SDRs): 2024: 77.4; 2025: 58.0; 2026: 52.8; 2027: 49.1; 2028: 44.5; 2029: 37.9; continues through 2044. - Total obligations based on existing and prospective credit (millions of SDRs): 2024: 440.4; 2025: 371.0; 2026: 314.9; 2027: 320.3; 2028: 376.3; 2029: 467.0; 2030: 542.1; 2031: 544.3; 2032: 545.1; 2033: 500.3; 2034: 361.1; 2035: 258.1; 2036: 166.3; 2037: 141.1; 2038: 137.0; 2039: 133.0; 2040: 128.9; 2041: 124.8; 2042: 120.8; 2043: 116.7; 2044: 109.5 - Total obligations (in billions of CFA francs): 2024: 352.9; 2025: 297.4; 2026: 252.4; 2027: 257.3; 2028: 303.1; 2029: 376.4; 2030: 437.0; 2031: 438.8; 2032: 439.4; 2033: 403.3; 2034: 291.1; 2035: 208.1; 2036: 134.0; 2037: 113.7; 2038: 110.5; 2039: 107.2; 2040: 103.9; 2041: 100.6; 2042: 97.3; 2043: 94.1; 2044: 88.3 - Total obligations as percent of government revenue: 2024: 4.0; 2025: 2.9; 2026: 2.2; 2027: 2.1; 2028: 2.2; 2029: 2.5; 2030: 2.7; 2031: 2.5; 2032: 2.3; 2033: 2.0; 2034: 1.3; 2035: 0.9; 2036: 0.5; 2037: 0.4; 2038: 0.4; 2039: 0.3; 2040: 0.3; 2041: 0.3; 2042: 0.2; 2043: 0.2; 2044: 0.2 - Outstanding Fund credit (millions of SDRs): 2024: 2,736.8; 2025: 3,625.1; 2026: 4,047.3; 2027: 3,854.2; 2028: 3,600.6; 2029: 3,249.2; 2030: 2,813.2; 2031: 2,363.1; 2032: 1,900.6; 2033: 1,471.1; 2034: 1,170.8; 2035: 966.0; 2036: 847.6; 2037: 750.0; 2038: 652.4; 2039: 554.9; 2040: 457.3; 2041: 359.8; 2042: 262.2; 2043: 164.6; 2044: 70.1 - Outstanding Fund credit (percent of government revenue): 2024: 25.0; 2025: 28.7; 2026: 28.9; 2027: 24.8; 2028: 21.0; 2029: 17.2; 2030: 14.0; 2031: 10.8; 2032: 8.0; 2033: 5.8; 2034: 4.2; 2035: 3.2; 2036: 2.6; 2037: 2.1; 2038: 1.7; 2039: 1.4; 2040: 1.0; 2041: 0.8; 2042: 0.5; 2043: 0.3; 2044: 0.1 - Outstanding Fund credit (percent of quota): 2024: 420.8; 2025: 557.4; 2026: 622.3; 2027: 592.6; 2028: 553.6; 2029: 499.6; 2030: 432.5; 2031: 363.3; 2032: 292.2; 2033: 226.2; 2034: 180.0; 2035: 148.5; 2036: 130.3; 2037: 115.3; 2038: 100.3; 2039: 85.3; 2040: 70.3; 2041: 55.3; 2042: 40.3; 2043: 25.3; 2044: 10.8 ### Projected External Borrowing and Debt Composition (Tables 7a–7c highlights) - Indicative 2024 volume of new external debt (USD million): three columns show totals 6,468.5; 6,063.1; 6,699.4 for different rows - Concessional debt share (percent): 2 (row 1); 1 (row 2); 1 (row 3) - Non-concessional debt (USD million): 6,346.4; 6,003.4; 6,639.7 - Semi-concessional (USD million): 2,658.2; 2,315.2; 2,315.2 - Commercial terms (USD million): 3,688.2; 3,688.2; 4,324.5 - Uses of debt financing (percent breakdown example): Infrastructure: 3; Social Spending: 24; Budget Financing: 41; Other: 32 (first row totals 100) - By currency: USD denominated loans: 3,300.0; Loans denominated in other currency: 3,168.5 - Fixed Interest Rate vs Variable Interest Rate (USD): Fixed Interest Rate 3,289.3; Variable Interest Rate 3,179.2 ### Fund Program Financing, Reviews, RSF Disbursements (Table 8a & 8b) - ECF/EFF arrangements: multiple scheduled disbursements of 371.657 (total) at each review; total amount: 2,601.6 (millions of SDRs), percent of quota: 400.0 - Note: Côte d’Ivoire's quota is SDR 650.40 million. - RSF disbursements (Table 8b): total 975.600 (millions of SDR); percent of quota: 150.00 ### Quantitative Performance Criteria and Indicative Targets (Table 9 — selected outcomes) - Floor on the overall fiscal balance (incl. grants) (billions of CFA): PC and outturn series show multiple values; examples: 2023 outturns: (2,514) met; 2024 outturn: (2,508) MET; 2025 targets and outturns listed in table. - Ceiling on net domestic financing (incl. issuance of securities in CFAF): targets and outturns across quarters show MET status for many observations (examples: 952; 1,160; 1,420; 1,364). - Ceiling on the present value of new external debt (millions of US$): target and outturn examples: 4,242; 2,451 MET; 4,650 ... 2,642 MET; noted NOT MET due to January 2024 Eurobond issuance. - Floor on government tax revenue (billions of CFA): examples: 4,620; outturns MET and listed by quarter in the table. - Indicative targets include floor on targeted social spending and other fiscal safeguards; program grants, program loans, project grants, and project loans are tracked in memorandum items. ### Prior Actions and Structural Benchmarks Under the ECF/EFF (Table 10 — selected reforms and statuses) - Prior Action: Submit to parliament 2025 budget in line with program objectives (revenue measures) — rationale: boost domestic revenue; due: End-May 2025. - Governance: Make legal framework compliant with FATF Recommendation 6 and pursue risk-based monitoring of non-profit organizations — rationale: facilitate exit from FATF grey list; due: End-December 2025. - Data dissemination: Disseminate historical annual general government operations data up to year 2023 by end-December 2024 through the National Summary Data Page — due: End-March 2025. - Multiple structural benchmarks (some met, some ongoing) include: - Establish clear criteria/procedures for reduced VAT rates (due end-June 2025). - Prepare and implement plan to manage and collect outstanding tax arrears (Met end-September 2023). - Cabinet approval of a Medium-Term Revenue Mobilization strategy (MTRS) with publication (Met end-May 2024). - Strengthen automated VAT management module (Met end-June 2024). - Issue ordinance streamlining investment code exemptions (Met end-September 2024). - Adopt draft law on national debt policy (Met End-September 2023). - Treasury Single Account timetable for closing commercial bank accounts (Met End-December 2023). - Publish quarterly central government debt data within one quarter (Met end-September 2024). - Financial inclusion mid-term review (Met end-May 2024). - Specific deadlines and statuses are listed for each benchmark in the table. ### RSF Reform Measure Matrix (Table 11 — climate, resilience, and green finance reforms) - Integration of climate into PFM (RM1–RM3): adopt ministerial arrêté to tag climate-related investment expenditure; prepare climate budget statement for 2026 budget law; integrate quantitative analysis of climate-related fiscal risks into fiscal risk statement (End of October 2025 target for several measures). - Strengthening governance of climate policies (RM4): set up national commission on climate change under Prime Minister's Office; produce and publish annual progress report (End of October 2024; MET for decree creating National Commission end June 2024). - Agriculture sector resilience (RM5): pilot insurance system for cotton sector; report and info notes on insurance product by end-December 2025. - Green finance architecture (RM6–RM8): develop transition taxonomy and inter-ministerial coordination (Decree on transition taxonomy by end of April 2025); adopt climate risk disclosure framework for SOEs and non-financial companies (end of April 2025); operationalize Green Finance Platform and MRV system (Decree end of October 2024; MET). - Multi-hazard early warning system and infrastructure resilience (RM9–RM10): deploy early warning system pilot in Adzopé with report summarizing first alerts by December 2024 (End of December 2024); adopt road maintenance methodologies accounting for climate by October 2024 (MET; road design manual end March 2024). - Energy and emissions measures (RM11–RM13): operationalize mandatory energy audit system with first 5 audits by end-September 2025; develop carbon taxation strategy and adjust fuel pricing mechanism by end-December 2025; adopt decree to promote electric mobility (timing continued in source). - Development partner roles listed for each RM where provided (examples include GCA/ IMF TA, AfDB, BOAD, AFD, WMO, KFW, World Bank, EU, ICAT). *Sources: Ivorian authorities, World Bank, BCEAO, and IMF staff estimates and projections.* ### 2024. The decree will address issues such as the installation of ### 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 2024. The decree will address issues such as the installation of ### Electric mobility and related regulatory measures - Decree to promote electric mobility in Côte d'Ivoire (end-April 2024). - Decree will address: - installation of electric charging stations, - technical inspections of electric vehicles, - insurance for electric vehicles, - compliance with standards for battery charging stations. - Development partner / role noted: GIZ; World Bank reports referenced for timing: End of April 2024, 2nd EFF/ECF review. - Industry energy benchmarks cited: 1500 ton of oil equivalent (toe) or 2000 MWh; Tertiary and Transportation: 500 toe or 1000 MWh. ### RSF Reform Measure Matrix — climate and energy reforms (selected measures) - RM14: - Objective: As part of the carbon taxation strategy, examine the existing environmental tax system on combustion engine vehicles and, if necessary, adopt reforms to the taxation of these vehicles in line with the objectives of the NDCs. - More specifically: Put in place a legal framework ensuring coherence between registration fees, import duties, taxes, and other regulations impacting promotion of cleaner, more efficient cars. - Timing: End of December 2025; 6th EFF/ECF review. - Expected outcome: Strategy on carbon taxation adopted by the Government (end December 2025); If necessary, issue regulations for environmental vehicle tax reforms. - IMF role: IMF TA to elaborate the strategy on carbon taxation. - RM15: - Objective: Continue to integrate funding from UNFCCC windows (GEF, GCF, AF), associated environmental taxes and earmarked fees listed in MEFP Annex I, into the State budget, and align them with NDCs where applicable. - Timing / review: End of October 2024, 3rd EFF/ECF review. - Expected product: Draft 2025 budget law (end October 2024). - Development partner: World Bank reports; MET indicated. - RM16: - Objective: Finalize tendering for development, construction and operation of solar power plants to help achieve NDC targets; complete competitive procurement by end of 2025 for solar power capacity to be installed equivalent to at least 100 MW. - Timing: End of December 2025; 6th EFF/ECF review. - Expected outcome: Two decrees approving agreements for construction, operation and transfer of two solar photovoltaic power plants (end December 2025). - Development partners: EU, World Bank. Reference: IFC report “Unlocking Private Investment: A Roadmap to achieve Côte d’Ivoire’s 42 percent renewable energy target by 2030”. ### Gender issues — overview and key findings (Annex I) - High-level summary: - Gender inequality in Côte d’Ivoire remains elevated relative to peers; overall composite indicators suggest marginal change over time and remain among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. - Improvements in female labor force participation, equal pay, and access to finance would help reduce gender inequality and significantly boost GDP. - Inequality of outcomes and representation: - Share of young women not in education, employment or training is about 25 percent, higher than that of men (about 13 percent) (as of 2022). - Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments has been increasing since 2000 but remains below the SSA average. - GDP gains from closing gender gaps: - IMF Equity Gains Toolkit (2019 data) suggests closing gender gaps in the labor market (earnings, employment and hours worked) could yield potential GDP gains of 9.3 percent. - IMF Output Gains Toolkit (based on Ostry and others (2018)) suggests fully closing the gender gap in labor force participation alone could boost GDP by about 12 percent (Percent 2022). - Legal and social progress: - World Bank Women Business and the Law Report (2024) overall legal score for Côte d’Ivoire: 77.5 (out of 100), higher than the global average (64.2) and higher than the Sub-Saharan Africa regional average (57.4). - Gaps persist in areas of safety and childcare services; legal gaps remain in marriage and family categories. - Education, health, and demographic indicators: - Enrollment rates of women at all levels of education are below SSA average. - Adolescent fertility has declined to a level comparable to regional peers. - More than one in four girls is married by the age of 18, almost one in fifteen by the age of 15. - Maternal mortality remains a concern; eradicating child marriage could yield a non-negligible increase in per capita growth (per IMF Child Marriage Toolkit). - Access to finance and digital financial services: - Côte d’Ivoire lags regional comparators in access to finance. - Women have lower rates of mobile money account ownership and are less likely to have made or received digital payments. - Infrastructure and services impact on women’s economic activity: - Access to electricity and safe drinking water has generally improved, but significant gaps remain with respect to drinking water in rural areas. - These gaps disproportionately burden women’s time through unpaid work (fetching water, cooking, laundry, cleaning). - Access to basic sanitation services is lower than in most middle-income countries but in line with the region. - Access to contraception has improved but unmet demand for contraception by women remains relatively elevated. - Data gaps and monitoring: - CIV lags regional comparators like Senegal and Togo in data availability on macrocritical gender gaps. - Recommendation: Improving data collection and dissemination on gender inequalities could help track progress. ### Key statistics and indicators (preserved exactly as reported) - Industry: 1500 ton of oil equivalent (toe) or 2000 MWh; Tertiary and Transportation: 500 toe or 1000 MWh. - RM14 timing: End of December 2025; 6th EFF/ECF review. - RM15 timing: End of October 2024, 3rd EFF/ECF review. - RM16 timing: End of December 2025; 6th EFF/ECF review. Solar capacity target: at least 100 MW. - Composite and sectoral indicators (selected values from Table 1): - Women, Business and the Law Index (WBL) 2023: 95.00. - Female Labor Force Participation Rate, Modeled ILO Estimate (15+ yrs) 2023: 56.47. - Female Employment-to-Population Ratio (15+ yrs) 2023: 54.75. - Female Unemployment Rate, Modeled ILO Estimate (15+ yrs) 2023: 3.02. - Proportion of Seats Held By Women in National Parliaments 2023: 13.73. - Share of Female Adults Who Own a Financial Institution Account (latest year 2021): 13.82 (reported in table under 2021). - Share of Female Adults with Mobile Money Account (latest year 2021): 29.84 (reported in table under 2021). - Share of Female Adults Who Made or Received Digital Payments in the Past Year (latest year 2021): 34.97 (reported in table under 2021). - Maternal Mortality Ratio per 100,000 Live Births, Modeled Estimate (2020): 480.00 (reported in table). - Total Fertility Rate (Births Per Woman) 2022: 4.34. - Female Adult Mortality Rate per 1,000 Adults 2022: 339.23. - Female Life Expectancy at Birth 2022: 60.28. - Female Primary Gross Enrollment Rate 2021: 91.70. - Female Secondary Gross Enrollment Rate (latest reported in table): 52.22. - Female Tertiary Gross Enrollment Rate 2018: 8.72. - IMF toolkit estimates: potential GDP gains of 9.3 percent (Equity Gains Toolkit, 2019 data); boost of about 12 percent from closing labor force participation gap (Output Gains Toolkit, Percent 2022). *Source: 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 2024. The decree will address issues such as the installation of* ### Annex II. External Sector Assessment ### Annex II. External Sector Assessment ### Overall assessment - Côte d’Ivoire’s external position in 2023 was weaker than the level implied by fundamentals and desirable policies. - The current account deficit is estimated to have edged up to 7.9 percent of GDP in 2023 from 7.7 percent of GDP in 2022. - Staff finds a cyclically adjusted CA of 7.9 percent of GDP, which is 3.1 percent of GDP lower than the adjusted norm (after rounding). ### Potential policy responses - Ongoing sustained fiscal consolidation driven by domestic revenue mobilization will be instrumental in bringing Côte d’Ivoire’s external balance in line with fundamentals and desirable policies and promoting external stability in the WAEMU currency union. - Sustaining revenue mobilization efforts would also help facilitate greater health spending, which accounts for the largest (gross) contribution to Côte d’Ivoire’s policy gap under the EBA lite model. - Continued execution of the structural reform agenda should deepen diversification and growth of the export sector, benefiting the external position in the medium term. ### Foreign assets and liabilities: position and trajectory - NIIP estimated to have deteriorated to -50 percent of GDP in 2023 from -46 percent of GDP in 2022, driven by the current account deficit. - Gross assets remained broadly unchanged while liabilities rose; debt liabilities have decreased by 1 percent. - Foreign direct investment accounts for nearly a quarter of gross external liabilities. - Assessment: NIIP is sustainable under the baseline; projected to improve over the medium term reflecting smaller projected current account deficits and strong nominal GDP growth. - Risks to external sustainability: slower than projected fiscal consolidation, deterioration in the terms of trade, and external geopolitical shocks. - 2023 (% GDP) key positions: - NIIP: -50 - Gross Assets: 26 - Debt Assets: 5 - Gross Liab.: 76 - Debt Liab.: 20 ### Current account - Background: - Current account deficit: 7.9 percent of GDP in 2023, from 7.7 percent in 2022 and an average of 3.1 percent of GDP in 2019-2021. - Merchandise trade surplus estimated to have risen to about 2.5 percent of GDP from 1.5 percent in 2022, mainly reflecting lower import prices. - Services trade deficit widened further to about 5.7 percent of GDP. - Assessment (EBA-lite CA model): - Cyclically adjusted CA: -7.9 percent of GDP (after accounting for cyclical factors, disasters, and external conflict shocks which at the end were cancelled out). - Cyclically adjusted CA norm: -4.9 percent of GDP. - CA gap: -3.1 percent of GDP (round up). - Estimated policy gap: 0.2 percent of GDP. - Large positive contribution of 1.4 percent of GDP from low public health expenditure (precautionary savings channel). - Offsetting negative contributions: loss of reserves (1.3 percent) and a less open financial account (private credit growth of -0.2 percent) than desirable. - REER approach: - Finds a distinctive CA gap of 0.6 percent of GDP, reflecting a REER undervaluation of 3.5 percent. - Fit of REER model not as good as CA model; bottom-line assessment based on CA model. ### Real exchange rate - Background: - Côte d’Ivoire is part of the WAEMU currency union, with the CFA franc pegged to the euro (1 euro = 655.957 CFAF). - The country’s real effective exchange rate appreciated by 4.4 percent in 2023, driven by the appreciation of the euro against third currencies. - Assessment: - Côte d’Ivoire maintains exchange-system obligations under Article VIII. - Based on the EBA-lite CA approach, the REER gap is estimated at 18.8 percent, using an elasticity of the REER with respect to the current account balance of -0.16 percent. - REER approach observes 3.5 percent of undervaluation which creates a CA gap of 0.6 percent. ### Model estimates for 2023 (EBA-lite results, in percent of GDP) - CA model / REER model summary: - CA-Actual: -7.9 - Cyclical contributions (from model): 0.1 (−) - Natural disasters and conflicts (−): -0.1 - Adjusted CA: -7.9 - CA Norm (from model): -4.9 - Adjusted CA Norm: -4.9 - CA Gap: -3.1 (CA model); 0.6 (REER model) - o/w Relative policy gap: 0.2 - Elasticity: -0.2 - REER Gap (in percent): 18.8 (CA model); -3.5 (REER undervaluation) ### Capital and financial accounts: flows and policy measures - Background: - Capital flows from private sector investors estimated to have slowed further in 2023 amid sharp tightening in global financial conditions and reduced capital flows to emerging and frontier markets. - Official financial account data for 2023 not yet available; alternative sources point to robust inflows of loans to the government from multilateral and bilateral creditors (including project loans) and non-resident purchases of local currency government debt. - In January 2024, Côte d’Ivoire issued $2.6 billion in a Eurobond transaction. - Assessment: - Recent decline in advanced economy market interest rates and improved investor risk appetite have led to a notably improved external financing environment. - Substantial external financing needs expected to be met through a combination of private sector credit, Fund credit and budget support from multilateral and bilateral creditors. - Fiscal consolidation will help reduce external borrowing needs over the medium term. ### FX intervention and reserves level - Background: - Regional WAEMU reserves declined to about 3.3 months of import cover by end-2023. - Reserve import coverage ratio projected to recover over the medium term. - Côte d’Ivoire’s contribution to the reserve pool declined substantially since August 2022, after substantial earlier reserve accumulation. - Assessment (ARA for credit-constrained economies): - Adequacy range for reserves: 4.0 to 6.0 months of prospective import coverage for the WAEMU (based on available data for 2022). - Lower end calibrated on fragile states; higher end calibrated on non-resource rich countries. - Level of reserves at end-2023 (3.3 months of imports) is below the level assessed as adequate. - Improving current account and enhanced prospects for financial inflows expected to contribute to gradual rebuilding of external reserves toward adequate levels. - Growth-friendly fiscal consolidation and structural reforms to diversify exports would help rebuild reserves and support external stability at the WAEMU level. *Source: Annex II. External Sector Assessment, 1civea2025001-print-pdf* ### 2. Continue efforts to extend the ### 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 2. Continue efforts to extend the ### Social protection and inclusion - Continue efforts to extend coverage of safety nets and develop a registry of beneficiaries to improve targeting of assistance. - Government actions and status: - A government campaign is underway to identify self-employed workers that could benefit from social protection. - Authorities are actively increasing the number of households covered by the universal healthcare scheme. - The registry of poor and vulnerable populations is being updated regularly to allow for better targeting of social assistance. - The authorities designed a new social program (PSGouv2) that has been implemented, starting in 2022. - PSGouv2 includes a program to enhance women autonomy and reduce gender inequality by: - providing food support to avoid school dropout of girls; and - subsidies to promote socio-economic and professional inclusion of young women, especially in rural areas. ### Revenue mobilization, tax policy, and tax administration - Policy recommendations: - Rationalize tax expenditures, broaden the tax base, and strengthen tax administration to finance productive and social spending and support macroeconomic resilience. - Actions and status: - An action plan to rationalize tax expenditures between 2020 and 2023 has been implemented. - Tax administration measures, including continued digitalization of tax filing and payment, have been introduced. - Authorities adopted a strategic reform plan based on recommendations from the 2021 TADAT. - A comprehensive MTRS has been adopted as part of the EFF/ECF supported program in May 2024. - Key capacity development priorities and horizons (as stated): - Tax Policy Unit capacity building: FY 2024/25. - Corporate income tax reforms: Assistance on the introduction of a national minimum tax of 15 percent — FY2025/2026. - Property Tax reforms: FY2025/2026. - VAT exemption rationalization: FY2025/2026. - Revenue Administration (tax and customs): FY2024/2025. ### Public financial management, procurement, and transparency - Policy recommendations: - Increase public spending efficiency and improve public financial management, notably through deployment of the e-procurement module. - Enhance fiscal transparency by systematically publishing procurement contracts, beneficial ownership, and related audits. - Actions and status: - Use of e-procurement has been increased to over 80 percent of regular transactions under the EFF/ECF-supported program, in the six months up to June 2024. - Data on procurement contracts are regularly published although information on beneficial ownership and on audits are not yet available. - PFM CD priorities: - Integrate climate into public financial management / public investment management; progress toward accrual accounting; and strengthen budget and accounting internal control — FY2024/2025. - Fiscal risks of SOEs: capacity building on quantification and monitoring of fiscal risks — FY 2024. ### Real sector reforms, business environment, and governance - Policy recommendations: - Improve the business environment and strengthen the fight against corruption to boost private participation, including digitalization, simplification of administrative processes, single-stop shop rollout, single tax identification number, land property rights protection, labor market efficiency, and financial inclusion. - Actions and status: - Government decree issued in January 2022 to operationalize the single-stop shop. - Ministry established to design, implement, and oversee the national anticorruption strategy. - Use of drones to enhance land property registration. - Support for SMEs strengthened in 2023 with the launching of the Single Window for the Development of SMEs (GUDE-PME). - SME Credit Guarantee Company (SGPME) issued its first portfolio guarantees. - Online search and consultation platform for business permits and licenses became operational in December 2023. - Côte d’Ivoire Export Agency created by Decree No. 2022-123 of February 23, 2022, made operational. - Council of Ministers adopted decrees in February and May 2024 to designate AML/CFT supervisory authorities for specified sectors and define their powers in line with FATF Recommendation 28. - Order No. 2023-875 of November 23, 2023, on combating money laundering, the financing of terrorism, and proliferation was adopted to bring the national system into line with FATF recommendations. ### Banking sector and public banks restructuring - Policy recommendations: - Complete restructuring of public banks and maintain strong supervision; diversify public banks’ deposit base to ease integration of government accounts into the single treasury account. - Actions and status: - Government expects full implementation of its restructuring strategy by the end of 2024. - Banque de l’Habitat de Côte d’Ivoire (BHCI): recapitalization completed and the bank’s equity is up to regulatory standards. - Banque Populaire de Côte d’Ivoire (BPCI): implementation of commitments arising from the sale to Africa Financial Group (AFG) Bank at the end of 2023 has been completed; process to be fully completed by end of 2024 with certification of 2023 accounts. ### Sustainable agriculture, climate, and social issues in agriculture - Policy recommendations: - Step up efforts to stop deforestation and child labor and implement measures to promote sustainable agriculture, help farmers diversify production and reduce intermediation costs. - Actions and status: - Abidjan Legacy Program launched in May 2022 to include sustainable land management and restoration of highly degraded forest ecosystems. - Government adopted a sustainable cocoa program to: - progressively restore forest cover from 11 percent in 2015 to 20 percent by the year 2030; and - eradicate the worst forms of child labor (WFCL) and work under the minimum age for admission to employment in cocoa cultivation by the year 2025. ### Statistics, data quality, and dissemination - Policy recommendations: - Sustain progress in improving the quality, timeliness, and dissemination of economic statistics. - Actions and status: - With Fund TA, authorities have rebased national accounts for 2015-19, produced new high frequency indicators (HFIs), and elaborated a National Statistics Development Strategy (SNDS). - Delays remain in aligning quarterly NA with rebased annual estimates and producing some HFIs (turnover index, import and export price indexes) due to the pandemic and staff constraints. - Implementation of the SNDS and publication of final 2022 and provisional 2023 national accounts estimates have been delayed. - STA priorities and horizons: - Improve GFS alignment with GFSM14 and expand institutional coverage of GFS and public sector debt — FY2024/2025. - Improve BOP statistics and timeliness — FY 2024. - Update and harmonize CPI and expand PPI coverage to include services; develop export-import price indexes — FY2024/2025. - Improve quarterly national accounts and high-frequency indicators for timely quarterly GDP estimates — FY2024/25. ### Capacity Development Strategy (IMF TA priorities and horizons) - Core TA focus: - Domestic revenue mobilization to safeguard fiscal and debt sustainability and create fiscal space; strengthen statistical system and governance; integrate climate into PFM and develop a national carbon taxation strategy on the RSF side. - Selected specific priorities and horizons (as listed): - TPU capacity building: FY 2024/25. - National minimum corporate income tax of 15 percent: FY2025/2026. - Property tax reforms and VAT exemption rationalization: FY2025/2026. - Tax administration and customs administration reforms: FY2024/2025. - Fiscal risks of SOEs monitoring tools and training: FY 2024. - Carbon taxation diagnostic/TA: FY2025. - STA assistance across GFS, BOP, price statistics, quarterly NA: FY2024–FY2025. - LEG assistance on AML/CFT recommendations and asset declarations regime reforms: FY 2024 (with HQ review). ### Main risks and mitigation - Main risks: - Weaknesses undermining the tax administration’s ability to conduct reforms and deliver better tax revenue outcomes, as stressed in the 2021 TADAT assessment. - Stakes are high because domestic tax revenue constitutes a performance criterion (PC) under the program. - Mitigating factors: - A great share of tax revenue measures are already in place before the start of the program. - The program establishes well-targeted and sequenced structural benchmarks, including a strategy to collect tax arrears and the development and implementation of an MTRS. - Provision of customized training courses to tax officials. - Efficiency from greater coordination with other TA providers. *Source: IMF country document excerpts from 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 2. Continue efforts to extend the* ### 3. Côte d'Ivoire: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance ### 3. Côte d'Ivoire: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance ### Data provision, participation, and coverage - Côte d'Ivoire participates in the Enhanced General Data Dissemination System (e-GDDS) and publishes the data on its National Summary Data Page since December 2017. - Data categories covered in the Table of Common Indicators include: Exchange Rates; International Reserve Assets and Reserve Liabilities of the Monetary Authorities; Reserve/Base Money; Broad Money; Central Bank Balance Sheet; Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking System; Interest Rates; Consumer Price Index; Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing (General Government and Central Government); International Investment Position; Stocks of Central Government and Central Government-Guaranteed Debt; External Current Account Balance; Exports and Imports of Goods and Services; GDP/GNP; Gross External Debt. - Frequency and timeliness codes used in the table: (“D”) daily; (“W”) weekly or with a lag of no more than one week after the reference date; (“M”) monthly or with lag of no more than one month after the reference date; (“Q”) quarterly or with lag of no more than one quarter after the reference date; (“A”) annual.; ("SA") semiannual; ("I") irregular; ("NA") not available or not applicable; and ("NLT") not later than. ### Data adequacy assessment and data quality summary - Overall statement: "The data provided to the Fund are adequate for surveillance." - Median ratings (heatmap-style summary) shown for key sectors: - National Accounts: B - Prices: B - Government Finance Statistics: A - External Sector Statistics: B - Monetary and Financial Statistics: B - Inter-sectoral Consistency: A - Coverage: mix of B and A ratings across sectors. - Consistency: instances of C and A ratings across sectors. - Frequency and Timeliness: instances of C, A, B, and D across sectors. - Data Adequacy Assessment Rating: B (overall). - Questionnaire Results / Assessment: Detailed questionnaire results referenced; top/bottom cell distinctions for granularity between government operations vs. public debt statistics, and between monetary and financial statistics vs. Financial Soundness indicators. - Note: "When the questionnaire does not include a question on a specific dimension of data quality for a sector, the corresponding cell is blank." ### Rationale for assessment, data gaps, and changes since last consultation - Rationale excerpt: "Data provision has some shortcomings but the authorities’ cooperative track record and provision of data under the Fund supported program mitigates such shortcomings and thus data provision is broadly adequate for surveillance." - Identified shortcomings: - Shortcomings in coverage and consistency of government finance statistics, including non-trivial stock-flow adjustments (though reduced in size in recent years). - Timeliness, coverage and granularity of national accounts statistics can be improved, especially gender and labor force statistics and alignment between annual and quarterly GDP. - Need for timelier production of balance of payments statistics and improved quality and granularity of monetary, financial, and external sector data. - Use of data in Article IV consultations: "Staff does not use any data and/or estimates in the staff report in lieu of official statistics." - Other data gaps: "CIV lags regional comparators on availability of macrocritical gender data." - Changes since last Article IV: authorities have embarked on new EFF/ECF and RSF programs and "have made significant efforts to increase data availability to the team, and the data provided has become more reliable and with increasing coverage and scope to ensure program success." - Example: "the recently passed debt law will help strengthen the framework for coordination and a centralized debt data and analysis, while the government continues to broaden the perimeter of the budget by including revenue collected by line ministries and agencies which were not previously part of the TOFE." ### Corrective actions and capacity development priorities - Ongoing EFF/ECF Fund supported program includes conditionality on data transparency, timeliness and frequency, and continuing technical assistance on national accounts, balance of payments, debt and fiscal statistics. - Capacity development priorities with the Fund: - (i) expanding the fiscal data coverage in line with GFSM 2014 and supporting the gradual broadening of the institutional coverage of public debt; - (ii) supporting the improvements to external sector statistics; - (iii) expanding producer price index coverage to include services and developing export-import price indices; - (iv) supporting the development of quarterly national accounts and high-frequency indicators of economic activity. ### Key macroeconomic findings, performance indicators, and program requests (from Letter of Intent excerpts) - Growth and inflation: - "economic growth is expected to reach 6.1 percent in 2024, after 6.5 percent in 2023." - "inflation is expected to fall to 4.0 percent in 2024, after 4.4 percent in 2023." - Fiscal and external balances: - "The budget deficit is expected to decline to 4.0 percent of GDP in 2024 after reaching 5.2 percent of GDP in 2023." - "The current account deficit is expected to narrow to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2024 after 8.1 percent of GDP in 2023." - Debt and banking sector: - "The risk of debt distress remains moderate." - "increase in banks' equity capital following the entry into force of a measure to increase minimum share capital from CFAF 10 billion to CFAF 20 billion." - Structural transformation and investment: - "Thanks to the successful implementation of the 2021-2025 National Development Plan (NDP), ... The 2021-2025 NDP ... provides for total investment over the period of about US$100 billion, 75 percent of which will be carried out by the private sector." - Expected average growth "6.7 percent on average over the period 2025-2029." - Private sector and governance indicators: - "a 9.3 percent increase in the number of companies created" in 2023 and "registered investments that exceeded the CFAF 1,000 billion mark." - "Côte d'Ivoire's CPIA score was raised to 3.8 in 2023, up 0.1 point from 2022." - Social programs and budgets: - Government Social Program (PSGouv): "financial execution ... in the amount of CFAF 602.1 billion shows a disbursement rate of 55.7 percent in the first half of 2024, with a budget of CFAF 1,081 billion in 2024." - Government Youth Program (PJGouv): "budget allocation for this program amounts to CFAF 265.5 billion in 2024." - Policy commitments and program implementation: - All performance criteria and indicative benchmarks of the 2023-2026 Economic and Financial Program (EFP) "have been met" as of end-June 2024; all structural benchmarks "have been achieved." - Government commitments include: (i) "maintain the sustainability of government finances and debt through an increase in the tax burden of 0.5 percentage point of GDP per year based on tax reforms in particular and convergence of the budget deficit to the WAEMU community norm of 3 percent of GDP in 2025"; (ii) "combat poverty and stimulate job creation"; (iii) shift growth model toward private-sector productivity and vertical diversification; (iv) develop the financial sector and strengthen financial inclusion; (v) improve resilience to climate change. - Resilience and climate actions: - RSF reforms: "the reform measures with a deadline of end-September 2024 have all been implemented." - Creation and operationalization of the National Commission to Combat Climate Change; adoption of the first annual report assessing climate transition progress in October 2024. - RSF reform pillars: (i) integrating climate into government finance and public investment management; (ii) strengthening governance and coordination of climate policies; (iii) enhancing climate resilience of agriculture; (iv) mobilizing green and sustainable financing for private and state-owned enterprises; (v) reducing vulnerability to flooding and coastal erosion; (vi) reducing greenhouse gas emissions. - Program financing requests to the IMF: - Government requests completion of the third review of the program supported by the ECF and the EFF, with the fourth disbursement under the ECF/EFF in the amount of SDR 371.657 million. - Government requests completion of the second review under the RSF, accompanied by a second disbursement of SDR 243.9 million. - Government requests that the IMF Executive Board conclude the 2024 Article IV Consultation. *Source: 3. Côte d'Ivoire: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance (as of October 31, 2024).* ### 10. The Ivoirian authorities agree to provide the IMF with information on the ### 10. The Ivoirian authorities agree to provide the IMF with information on the implementation of the agreed measures and the execution of the program, as provided for in the attached Technical Memorandum of Understanding, on dates agreed upon by both parties ### Background and strategic objectives - Economic growth expected to reach 6.1 percent in 2024, after 6.5 percent in 2023. - Inflation expected to fall to 4.0 percent in 2024, after 4.4 percent in 2023. - Budget deficit expected to narrow to 4.0 percent of GDP in 2024, after 5.2 percent of GDP in 2023. - Current account deficit expected to decline to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2024, after 8.1 percent of GDP in 2023. - Risk of debt distress: moderate; sovereign financial rating places Côte d’Ivoire among the three countries with the best credit quality in sub-Saharan Africa. - Banking sector capital requirement increased: minimum share capital raised from CFAF 10 billion to CFAF 20 billion. - 2021-2025 National Development Plan (NDP) aims to mobilize about US$100 billion in total investment over the period, with three-quarters carried out by the private sector. - 2026-2030 NDP expected to build on current NDP and target upper-middle-income status by 2030. - Government commitment highlights (2023-2026 Economic and Financial Program (EFP)): - increase tax burden by 0.5 percentage point of GDP per year based on tax reforms; - converge budget deficit to the WAEMU community standard of 3 percent of GDP in 2025; - combat poverty and stimulate job creation, especially for youth; - shift growth toward private-sector productivity and vertical diversification; - develop financial sector and deepen financial inclusion; - improve resilience to climate change. ### Social programs and governance - Government Social Program (PSGouv) 2024 budget: CFAF 1,081 billion; financial execution of CFAF 602.1 billion with a disbursement rate of 55.7 percent in the first half of 2024. PSGouv achievements: electrification in fragile areas, access to drinking water, rehabilitation and equipping of health and education infrastructure, quarterly allowance to most vulnerable populations, road resurfacing. - Government Youth Program (PJGouv) 2024 budget: CFAF 265.5 billion; activities include training, professional integration, youth entrepreneurship, civic engagement, and improving youth well-being. - National Policy on Equality, Equity, and Gender: focused on gender integration across sectors, empowerment of women, prevention of gender-based violence, boosting girls’ school enrollment, improving women’s access to rural land ownership, and promoting better representation of women in elected office. - Governance indicators: CPIA score 3.8 in 2023 (up 0.1 from 2022); above IDA borrower average of 3.1; among top five performers in Africa. Gain of three points in Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index and twelve (12) places in ranking. Upgrades to sovereign rating by Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s in 2024. ### Resilience and climate (RSF) - RSF approved in March 2024; reform measures with deadline end-September 2024 have all been implemented. - National Commission to Combat Climate Change created and operationalized. - First annual report assessing climate transition progress adopted by the Council of Ministers in October 2024. - RSF reform pillars (six (6) pillars): - integrate climate into government finance and public investment management; - strengthen governance and coordination of climate policies; - enhance climate resilience of agriculture; - mobilize green and sustainable financing for private and public enterprises; - reduce vulnerability to flooding and coastal erosion; - reduce greenhouse gas emissions. ### Recent macroeconomic developments (first half of 2024) - Supply-side and sectoral developments: strong growth in extractive industries, electricity, gas, water, telecommunications, and transport; downturn in construction and trade; mixed export agriculture with declines in cocoa bean and cashew nut production and increases in coffee, rubber, and cottonseed production. - Consumer price increase: fell from 4.4 percent at end-December 2023 to 3.8 percent at end-June 2024. - Real effective exchange rate: rose by an average of 5.9 percent compared with end-June 2023. - Trade coverage: rate of coverage of imports by exports rose to 111.6 percent; trade surplus more than doubled. - Banking system: remained sound despite BCEAO key rate tightening; adequate growth in aggregates consistent with financial deepening. ### Budget execution and financing (end-June 2024) - Budget deficit: CFAF 962.8 billion at end-June 2024. - Total revenue and grants: CFAF 4,213.7 billion (target: CFAF 4,342.3 billion) — shortfall of CFAF 128.6 billion. - Shortfall detail: CFAF 185 billion gap in tax revenues (income tax, VAT, taxes on general merchandise, export duties and taxes); offset by CFAF 57 billion gain in non-tax revenues. - Total expenditure and net loans: CFAF 5,176.5 billion (target: CFAF 5,322.1 billion); lower-than-expected investment expenditures (-CFAF 165.5 billion) and operating expenditures (-CFAF 22.1 billion). - Financing sources: sub-regional money and capital markets and external financing (including IMF financing and the Eurobond issued in February 2024). ### Public debt and contingent liabilities (end-June 2024) - Stock of central government debt (including on-lending and government-guaranteed debt): 56.1 percent of GDP (end-June 2024), compared with 59.1 percent at end-2023. - External debt: 35.2 percent of GDP at end-June 2024, compared to 35.9 percent at end-2023. - Guaranteed external debt: CFAF 365.0 billion, or 0.7 percent of GDP. - Domestic debt: 20.0 percent of GDP at end-June 2024, compared to 22.2 percent in 2023. - Guaranteed domestic debt: CFAF 83.5 billion, or 0.2 percent of GDP. - Stock of debt of state-owned enterprises (guaranteed and non-guaranteed): CFAF 919.7 billion, or 1.8 percent of GDP, of which 0.9 percent was guaranteed debt. - Debt sustainability analysis (DSA): Côte d’Ivoire remains among countries at moderate risk of debt distress. ### Financial sector and inclusion - Average risk-weighted capital ratio of banks: 13.9 percent at end-December 2023 (from 13.6 percent at end-June 2023). - Credit portfolio quality: net portfolio deterioration rate 2.4 percent at end-March 2024 (2.8 percent at end-2023); gross rate 7.2 percent at end-March 2024 (7.3 percent at end-December 2023). - Comparison with WAEMU averages (end-December 2024): WAEMU average gross rate 9.0 percent; average net rate 3.6 percent. Ivorian banks performing better on these metrics. - Financial inclusion and access: strict banking penetration 31.2 percent at end-2023 (29.5 percent at end-2022); expanded banking penetration 43.6 percent in 2023 (43.2 percent in 2022). Overall rate of use of financial services 84.7 percent, which is 1.13 percent above the WAEMU target of 75 percent. ### Outlook to end-2024 (selected projections and assumptions) - GDP growth: expected 6.1 percent in 2024 (after 6.5 percent in 2023). - Supply-side projections: primary sector +7.2 percent (export agriculture +10.7 percent; subsistence agriculture +3.1 percent); secondary sector +2.8 percent (mining +8.7 percent; petroleum products +5.8 percent; energy +2.6 percent; food processing +1.2 percent; other manufacturing +3.9 percent; construction -1.1 percent); tertiary sector +6.6 percent (transport +6.3 percent; telecommunications +6.8 percent; trade +5.9 percent; other services +7.5 percent). - Demand-side projections: final consumption +3.4 percent; investment +8.1 percent. Overall investment rate: 26.2 percent of GDP (2023: 25.6 percent). - Inflation: expected 4.0 percent at end-December 2024 (4.4 percent at end-December 2023); persistent pressures on energy and food prices. - Current account: expected deficit 4.7 percent of GDP in 2024 (8.1 percent in 2023); driven by higher export values (cocoa and crude oil) and lower import bills; overall balance expected in surplus with net capital inflows and increased FDI. - Fiscal projections for 2024: fiscal deficit targeted at 4.0 percent of GDP (reduction of 1.2 percentage points of GDP compared to 2023). - Total revenues and grants target: CFAF 8,775.9 billion (16.8 percent of GDP). - Tax burden expected to remain at 14.4 percent of GDP (13.6 percent in 2023). - Total expenditure and net loans expected: CFAF 10,896.5 billion (20.8 percent of GDP). - Government plans to mobilize CFAF 697.8 billion through the tax on petroleum products in 2024 and will adjust pump prices as necessary to meet revenue targets while protecting vulnerable populations. - Cap on new external loans: present value of US$6,063.0 million. ### Program implementation status (end-June 2024) - All performance criteria and indicative benchmarks of the program met as of end-June 2024. All structural benchmarks achieved. - Program monitoring highlights: - Tax revenues: CFAF 3,559.3 billion (target floor: CFAF 3,538 billion) — positive difference CFAF 21.3 billion. - Overall budget balance: -CFAF 962.8 billion, or CFAF 122 billion above target floor of -CFAF 1,085 billion. - Net present value of new external debt: US$3,895 million (target ceiling: US$4,422 million). - No external or domestic arrears accumulated. - Net domestic financing: -CFAF 61.1 billion (below anticipated ceiling of CFAF 594 billion). *Attachment: Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) and Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU) — Côte d’Ivoire: Supplement to the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies 2023–2026 under the Third Review of the ECF/EFF Arrangements and the Second Review of the RSF Arrangement.* ### 18. All indicative targets at end-June 2024 were also met (see Table 1). The stock of amounts ### 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 18. All indicative targets at end-June 2024 were also met (see Table 1). The stock of amounts ### Fiscal indicators and indicative targets (end-June 2024) - Stock of amounts payable was reduced by CFAF 42.6 billion, with a floor of CFAF 41.0 billion. - Expenditures made by cash advance procedures amounted to CFAF 144.2 billion, with a ceiling of CFAF 192.0 billion. - Specific social expenditures amounted to CFAF 491.6 billion, compared with a floor of CFAF 463.0 billion. - Basic primary balance was CFAF 179.6 billion above the minimum target of CFAF 86.0 billion. - All indicative targets at end-June 2024 were met. ### Structural benchmarks (achievements at end-June, end-July, end-September 2024) - Automated VAT management: - Digital VAT administration module went live on June 28, 2024. - First VAT declarations received in July 2024 indicated an amount of VAT not allowed for deduction of 95.9 billion. - Net gain for July 2024 was 25 billion. - Module enhanced to include control of the VAT deduction at the customs border. - E-procurement (SIGOMAP): - Use made compulsory for at least 50 percent of conventional public procurement operations (amounts above 100 million) between January and June 2024. - For H1 2024, 1,059 contracts concluded: 948 handled electronically via SIGOMAP and 111 outside SIGOMAP. - SIGOMAP utilization rate at end-July 2024 was 89.6 percent, exceeding the 50 percent target. - All national budget procurement operations are conducted exclusively through SIGOMAP; most donor-financed operations remain outside SIGOMAP. - Investment Code and tax exemptions: - Ordinance revising scope and tax exemptions of the Investment Code adopted in September 2024. - Ordinance excludes a number of activities from tax benefits and establishes a 50 percent reduction for category 2 customs duty exemptions specified by Article 14 of Ordinance No. 2019-1088 of December 18, 2019. - Measures aim to significantly reduce tax costs of approvals in the investment and operating phase. - Transparency: - Central government debt data as at end-June 2024 published in September 2024 on the National Summary Data Page. ### Progress on RSF reform measures (selected RM milestones) - RM 3: Decree No. 2024-595 on environmental and social assessments adopted June 26, 2024 (amending Decree No. 96-894). - RM 4: Decree No. 2024-594 (June 26, 2024) creating the National Commission to Combat Climate Change; members appointed. - Procedural manual approved by Order 000599/MINEDDTE/CAB in October 2024 specifying disaster risk management roles. - First annual report assessing the climate transition produced and adopted by Council of Ministers on October 30th, 2024. - RM 8: Decree establishing the Green Finance Platform adopted in October 2024. - Training and capacity development plan for climate finance instruments adopted in October 2024; implementation began with training workshops. - MRV system operational through the https://finance.mnv-cotedivoire.ci/ website (based on UNDP open source model). - RM 9: Pilot phase of early warning system launched in Adzopé on June 13, 2024; first environmental component report produced in late July 2024. - RM 10: Methodological guide drawn up in February 2024; follow-up report on pavement design sizing requirements produced in October 2024. - RM 11: Energy labelling mandatory since July 15, 2024 via GUCE (www.guce.gouv.ci). - As at end-September 2024, 43 Prior Import Authorizations granted for 50,965 air conditioners and 36,753 refrigerators subject to labelling. - RM 15: Integration of UNFCCC window funding and associated environmental taxes/fees continued in the 2025 budget; water tax to be integrated into the 2026 budget. - RM 13 (electric mobility): Decree No. 2024-326 (May 22, 2024) promoting electric vehicles and charging infrastructure. - At end-September 2024: more than 200 electric vehicles in use; 60 charging stations installed in Abidjan with extension to Bouaké. - Digital platform NEO set up for geolocation and management of charging stations. - Pilot project “Integration of renewable energies in electric mobility in Côte d’Ivoire” to start late 2025 (financed by GEF and UNIDO). - Sector attracted partnerships and direct investment initiatives. ### Budget execution and revenue measures for remainder of 2024 - Revenue gains from tax policy and administration reforms amounted to about CFAF 66 billion by end-June 2024. - Main 2024 budget measures: gradual improvement of property tax regime, limits on reduced VAT rates, optimization of exemptions including VAT, reduction in tax expenditures under the Investment Code. - Table of expected/estimated impacts of existing measures (selected lines preserved verbatim): - Raise cocoa's registration fees from 4% to 5%: 3612.5 (initial estimated full-year impact in billions of CFAF). Status: Completed. - Adjust provisions concerning real estate taxation: 600 (initial estimated full-year impact). Status: Legal provision adopted in the 2024 Fiscal Annex. Operational implementation under way. - Rationalization of exemptions: 5115 (initial estimated full-year impact). Status: To monitor and strengthen implementation. - Reform exemptions under the investment code (SB end-September 2024): 5- (initial estimated full-year impact). Status: In progress. - Extend VAT to non-essential food products: 20.3 (initial estimated full-year impact). Status: Completed; 2024 Tax Annex, Article 1. DGD Circular No. 2285/MFB/DGD of February 20, 2024. - Eliminate tax benefits for economic and social housing: 11 (initial estimated full-year impact). Status: Completed; Article 7, 2024 Tax Annex. - Increase fixed registration fee from 18,000 to 25,000 CFA francs: 20 (initial estimated full-year impact). Status: Completed; Article 2, 2024 Tax Annex. - Introduce 4% registration fee on non-notarized land transfers: 50 (initial estimated full-year impact). Status: Completed; Article 2, 2024 Tax Annex. Implementation in the last quarter of 2024. - Establish unified declaration for salary taxes and social contributions: 101.1 (initial estimated full-year impact). Status: Completed; Article 5, Tax Annex 2024. Technical framework being finalized. - VAT for public transport companies: 21 (initial estimated full-year impact). Status: Completed; Article 3, Tax Annex 2024. - Issue decrees applying reduced VAT rates on imports of luxury rice: 40 (initial estimated full-year impact). Status: In progress. - Issue decrees applying reduced VAT rates on imported offal: 40 (initial estimated full-year impact). Status: In progress. - Improve transfer pricing monitoring: 137.5 (initial estimated full-year impact). Status: Actions underway to recover duties from cocoa sector audit. - Establish traceability mechanism for tobacco to combat smuggling: 200 (initial estimated full-year impact). Status: Article 6, 2024 Tax Annex. Operational mechanism being implemented. - Expand tax base: 168 (initial estimated full-year impact). Status: Use of cadastral projects underway; electronic census of plots and economic activities ongoing. - Improve management agencies via eight new SIGICI modules (VAT deduction, GIS, control, exemptions, real estate taxation): 3020 (initial estimated full-year impact). Status: VAT deduction module strengthened with methods accounting for VAT collected at customs. - Total (sum reported): 25666.4 (Total). - To compensate for tax revenue shortfall at end-June 2024, additional measures listed in Text Table 2 will be taken. - Spending target: 2024 budget aims to keep total spending to 20.8 percent of GDP while increasing enrollment in the Universal Health Coverage (UHC) program and continuing social programs for education and health. ### Public financial management, governance, and institutional reforms (selected outcomes H1–H2 2024) - Citizen Budget 2024 developed and publicized; digital version available at https://www.dgbf.ci. - Annual fiscal risks assessment (including climate) completed in 2024 and integrated into 2025-2027 Statement of Fiscal Risk annexed to the draft Budget Law for 2025. - Integrated Stock Accounting Management System "asset entry" module finalized in June 2024. - Private contracts approved represented 9.3 percent of total contract amounts at end-June 2024 (compared with 14.8 percent at end-December 2023), below the ceiling of 20 percent. - SIGOMAP use extended in 2024 to all structures subject to the Public Procurement Code. - Average time to award contracts at end-June 2024 was 99.1 days (regulatory deadline: 114 days). - Treasury Single Account (TSA) closing schedule implementation closed 694 accounts as at end-June 2024 (out of 1,071): 488 zero-balance accounts (out of 502), 204 accounts with credit balance (out of 559), and 2 accounts with a debit balance (out of 10). ### Business climate, governance, and financial sector developments - Office for the Marketing of Food Products strengthened (Decree No. 2023-771 of September 28, 2023). Of 155 local markets planned for 2022-2030, 15 completed in H1 2024 out of 18 ongoing projects. - Map of partners/resource providers for SME export support drawn up in H1 2024. - SME support: 5,562 companies benefited from technical/managerial support out of an annual target of 5,750; 388 support missions to upgrade SMEs in H1 2024. - Draft law on industrial zones/land for industrial activity adopted by government on June 12, 2024. - AfCFTA SME strategy developed and approved May 2024; AfCFTA Protocol on Women and Youth approved February 2024; Women’s Initiative Network - AfCFTA established July 2024. - WTO Joint Initiative on Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement signed February 2024. - Five bilateral trade cooperation agreements signed in H1 2024 with Congo, Liberia, Angola, the United States, and South Korea. ### Governance, anti-corruption, and AML/CFT measures - National Anti-Corruption Strategy adopted by Council of Ministers on June 12, 2024. - Asset declaration rate of taxable persons stood at 84.4 percent in H1 2024 (target: 90 percent by year-end). - SIGNALIS platform operations in H2 2024 opened fifteen (15) criminal investigations, leading to arrest and referral of thirty-two (32) public officials to the Economic and Financial Criminal Division. - Integrity prevention/combating tools developed and approved for five (5) target administrations. - AML/CFT legal framework strengthened with adoption of: - Interministerial Order No. 0448/MFB/MEPD of June 13, 2024; - Interministerial Order No. 0482/MFB/MAEIAIE of June 28, 2024; - Order No. 0415/MFB/CAB of May 2, 2024; - Order No. 487/MFB/CAB of June 7, 2024; - Order No. 0717/MFB/CAB of August 20, 2024. ### Financial sector, public sector governance, and statistics - BHCI recapitalization operation completed in June 2024, bringing the bank into compliance with capital and solvency ratio standards. - BMPA operationalization: Interministerial Order No. 0286/MEMINADERPV/MFB/MCI adopted April 18, 2024 for pilot phase institutional framework. - PPP portfolio review (May 2024): PPP portfolio includes 107 projects at various stages. - At end-July 2024: ten (10) addenda to expired Performance Contracts signed; ten (10) second-generation COPs signed (six (6) renewed). - Off-Grid Electrification Action Plan (PAEHR) developed to improve access to electricity via decentralized solutions. - National statistics: - Final 2022 and provisional 2023 Annual National Accounts produced in September 2024 and awaiting publication. - Institutional framework strengthened with creation of: - National Statistics Council (CNStat): Decree No. 2024-373 of June 12, 2024; - National Statistics Agency (ANStat): Decree No. 2024-371 (dissolving National Statistics Institute) and Decree No. 2024-370 of June 12, 2024; - National Fund for the Development of Statistics (FNDS): Decree No. 2024-372 of June 12, 2024. _Excerpt from the IMF content unit provided (1civea2025001-print-pdf)._ ### 25. The government will continue to focus on the implementation of its development ### 25. The government will continue to focus on the implementation of its development strategy built around the Côte d’Ivoire 2030 Strategic Plan with the vision of building a unified nation by 2030. ### Development strategy and climate commitments - Vision and targets: - Join the group of upper-middle-income countries by 2030. - Reduce extreme poverty by half (relative target as stated). - Increase life expectancy by 10 years compared to 2020. - Planning and structural transformation: - Develop the 2026-2030 NDP based on a comprehensive review of the 2021-2025 NDP to continue structural transformation and reduce inequalities. - Emphasis on deployment of industrial clusters and accelerating establishment of agricultural hubs spread throughout the country. - Climate and sustainability: - Step up actions to meet climate-related commitments in terms of mitigation and adaptation as contained in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). ### Macroeconomic outlook and key projections (2025–2028) - Growth and sectors: - Average growth of 6.8 percent over the 2025-2028 period. - Supply-side average growth rates: - Secondary sector: 8.8 percent (supported by construction and public works, energy, food processing, and other manufacturing). - Tertiary sector: 6.7 percent. - Primary sector: 3.1 percent. - Demand drivers: - Overall investment average growth: 10.2 percent. - Private investment average growth: 21.1 percent. - Public investment average growth: 7.1 percent. - Inflation and price trends: - Inflation expected to fall below 3 percent on average by 2025 (WAEMU community standard). - Inflation was 4.4 percent in 2023 (comparison point). - External sector: - Current account deficit trajectory: - 8.1 percent of GDP in 2023. - 4.7 percent of GDP in 2024. - 2.2 percent of GDP in 2028. - Overall balance: expected average surplus equal to 1.3 percent of GDP over the period. - Monetary and financial indicators: - Broad money supply expected to increase by an average of 12.1 percent. ### Economic and financial program (EFP 2023-2026) objectives - Over 2025-2026, implementation of EFP 2023-2026 aims to: - Consolidate internal and external balances without compromising growth momentum. - Maintain macroeconomic stability and strengthen long-term resilience to climatic phenomena via program implementation and RSF reforms. - Program policy pillars: - (i) Maintain sustainability of public finances and debt. - (ii) Boost domestic revenue mobilization and strengthen public financial management (PFM) and debt management. - (iii) Deepen structural reforms for inclusive growth driven by private sector productivity and vertical diversification. - (iv) Deepen financial inclusion. - (v) Invest in human capital. - (vi) Build resilience to climate change. ### Fiscal policy stance and targets (2025–2026) - Overall fiscal consolidation approach: - Pursue fiscal consolidation through increased revenue mobilization, control of operating expenditures, and efficient management of capital expenditures. - Keep risk of debt distress at a moderate level through increased tax revenues and active public debt management. - Use fiscal regulation to align spending with available resources while preserving priority spending. - Deficit and revenue targets: - Budget deficit expected to reach 3 percent of GDP from 2025. - Government determined to reduce fiscal deficit to 3 percent of GDP by 2025. - Increase in tax revenues targeted from 13.6 percent of GDP in 2023 to 15.9 percent of GDP in 2026. - Program emphasis: - Protect essential expenditures, including social spending. - Optimize current expenditures, including non-targeted subsidies. ### Medium-Term Revenue Mobilization Strategy (MTRS) and specific measures - MTRS objectives: - Raise the tax burden gradually towards the WAEMU tax burden target of at least 20 percent of GDP. - Simplify tax system and broaden tax base. - MTRS components: - (i) Simplification of the tax system. - (ii) Broadening the tax base by raising taxation in under-taxed sectors, reducing tax exemptions and other deviations, and taxing new taxable items (in particular international digital products and new types of transport using user-contact applications). - (iii) Combating tax fraud, smuggling, tax evasion, and tax avoidance. - (iv) Strengthening transfer pricing policy. - (v) Strengthening environmental taxation in line with the RSF-supported reform program. - (vi) Continued modernization of tax administration. - (vii) Reforms to legal framework and guidelines for international and regional taxation. - Governance and implementation: - Governance structure and working group established to manage MTRS and liaise with IMF and technical partners. - Consultation with private sector and civil society planned to secure broad support. - Structural benchmark: establish and publish criteria and procedures for granting and elimination of reduced VAT rates and exemptions (end-June 2025). - Tax policy and administration reforms to be implemented, including revision of the General Tax Code, the Investment Code, and VAT-related policies, plus digitization, governance, capacity development, public-private collaboration, and citizen education. ### 2025 Budget: targets, composition, and specific revenue measures - Fiscal targets and envelope: - Target to reduce the budget deficit by 1 percentage point of GDP: from 4.0 percent of GDP in 2024 to 3.0 percent of GDP in 2025. - Government intends to keep total spending at 20.7 percent of GDP. - Investment spending targeted at around 6.8 percent of GDP (2.2 percentage points higher than pre-Covid-19 levels). - Revenue targets and measures: - Increase tax revenues from 14.4 percent of GDP in 2024 to 15.4 percent of GDP in 2025. - Mobilize CFAF 704 billion, or 1.2 percent of GDP, through taxes on petroleum products. - Apply market valuation as the basis for property taxation to cover all types of real estate parcels (structural benchmark end May 2025). - Improve estimates of tax expenditures resulting from the Investment Code, including by improving primary data to include tax credits and tax holidays on all taxes covered by the Investment Code (structural benchmark end September 2025). - New tax policy measures focus on improving property taxes, optimizing exemptions including on VAT, and reducing tax expenditures from the Investment Code. - Tax administration measures: further digitization of the tax system, modernization of goods inspection facilities, closer cooperation between tax and customs authorities. - Social protection and targeting: - Improvements to the Single Social Registry and expansion of the productive cash transfer program to better target social protection. - With World Bank assistance, expand coverage of the cash transfer program by enrolling 100,000 additional households per year in the Single Social Registry over the next two years. - Pro-poor spending in health, education, social protection, and youth employment account for around 29.3 percent of pro-poor spending (monitoring reference to TMU). - Expected results and returns of 2025 revenue measures (Text Table 3 totals): - Total estimated annual impact: 295.3 (in billions of CFAF). - Selected line items (estimated annual impact in billions of CFAF): - Rationalization of tax exemptions: 3.3 - Adjustment of excise duties on tobacco (from 49 to 70 percent): 32 - Adjustment regarding property tax provisions: 21 - Adjustment to rates of certain schedular taxes: 12.6 - Increase in tax rate on gambling sector profits: 2 - Increase in ad valorem tax on gold exports from 5 to 7 percent: 41.4 - Implementation of electronic invoicing: 50 - Strengthening joint DGD-DGI controls: 10 - Strengthening border offices with non-intrusive control equipment, video surveillance and axle weighing: 15 - Strengthening the risk analysis system through artificial intelligence: 20 - Implementation of the single ITS declaration: 5 - Implementation of control of invoicing period and payment of VAT on behalf of third parties in the deduction: 38 - Implementation of judicial litigation on customs cases: 25 - Implementation of tobacco traceability: 20 ### 2025 budget priorities and strategic initiatives - Continuity of reforms and investments for sustainable and inclusive growth: - Improve private sector productivity, accelerate vertical diversification and industrialization, strengthen financial inclusion and governance. - Invest in human capital, accelerate major infrastructure projects, and improve living conditions. - Prioritize consolidation of the security framework, social cohesion, and peace, particularly in the context of the 2025 presidential election. - Social and development initiatives: - Strategic initiatives for food self-sufficiency (food security, livestock production autonomy, nutrition, efficiency of agricultural production, and marketing channels optimization). - Strengthening health infrastructure, expansion of Universal Health Coverage, and increased support for vulnerable populations. - Promotion of entrepreneurship, youth employment, women’s empowerment, digital innovation, and digitization of government. - Support for construction of social housing, development of private sector through new industrial zones, construction of local markets, and sanitation projects. - Climate finance and green financing mobilization: - 2025 budget includes funding through UNFCCC channels and environmental taxes and associated dedicated fees totaling CFAF 3.02 billion (in accordance with Reform Measure 15). - Government organized an international round table on July 5, 2024 to launch mobilization of green financing with a target of at least US$16 billion by 2030; expected to deliver conclusions at COP29 in November 2024. ### Debt policy, debt management, and fiscal buffers - Debt sustainability and risk classification: - Latest debt sustainability analysis classifies Côte d’Ivoire at “moderate risk of overall and external debt distress.” - External debt portfolio vulnerable to a negative shock to non-grant fiscal revenues. - Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) 2024-2028: - Use domestic borrowing more than external borrowing to meet financing needs. - Planned average financing instrument mix over 2024-2028: domestic/external proportions of 58 percent/42 percent. - Active debt management, including liability management operations such as the Debt for Development (D4D) swap currently under discussion with the World Bank. - External borrowing cap and preferences: - Limit use of external borrowing over 2025-2026 in accordance with MTDS. - For 2025, preference for concessional and semi-concessional borrowing and cap recourse to new external loans at a present value of US$4,238.1 million. - Sovereign credit ratings and financing instruments: - Upgrade by Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) in April 2024 from B+ to BB- cited as an opportunity to access NHFO, PRI, and trade finance products. - Government intends to pursue various green financing options. - Strengthening public debt management framework and institutional measures: - Adoption of Law No. 2020-350 of June 6, 2024 on national debt policy and public debt management; implement various decrees on public borrowing use, CNDP responsibilities/organization/operation, and conditions for issuing/managing public guarantees and on-lending procedures. - Produce quarterly debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using the Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) to monitor debt sustainability indicators. - Continue assessment, monitoring, and management of public debt risks, including fiscal risks related to state-owned enterprises, with IMF technical assistance. - Gradual extension of debt coverage to state-owned enterprises in accordance with the Public Sector Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users (PSDSG 2011). ### Social policy and human capital (introductory reference) - The document outlines that social policy and development of human capital are priorities, with emphasis on health, education, social protection, and youth employment as core areas for social spending and program monitoring. *Source: 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 25. The government will continue to focus on the implementation of its development strategy built around the Côte d’Ivoire 2030 Strategic Plan (extracted content).* ### 40. The government’s development strategy will rely more heavily on human capital ### 40. The government’s development strategy will rely more heavily on human capital ### Human capital development: health, education, and training - Health sector - 2023-2027 Hospital Program: increase capacity of health care worker training centers; investments across different levels of the health care pyramid; improved governance in the health care system. - Education system - Actions aimed at improving access, quality, and performance through major reforms and projects. - Continued implementation of Education Summit recommendations, including: - national strategy for the digitization of education; - introduction of a multi-criteria evaluation system for private schools; - updating of the Education Law. - Technical education and vocational training (TVET) - Target: increase job placement rate of graduates by around 80 percent. - Target: reach nearly 400,000 people trained and placed through the Second Chance School (E2C) and the Talent Academy by 2025. ### Social policy: poverty reduction and social protection programs - Objectives: reduce poverty and social inequality through the Government Social Program; reduce vulnerability via Universal Health Coverage (UHC) and Productive Social Safety Net (PSN). - Universal Health Coverage (UHC) - First half of 2024 enrollment added nearly 3,240,937 people, bringing total enrolled to 13,388,044. - Poor people enrolled: 595,533 out of a target of 1,662,594 → enrollment rate of 36 percent. - Second half of 2024: World Bank financial support through the HNECDP program to target poor households and systematically enroll PSN beneficiaries. - Recruitment objective: increase reception staff to 5,600 by end of 2025 compared to 1,500 in 2024. - Productive Social Safety Net (PSN) - As at end-2023: 327,000 households benefited from cash transfers covering 3,671 villages in 108 communes in the 31 regions. - 2024 priorities: register 75,000 new beneficiary households under cohort 6, and 30,000 under cohort 7 under the Productive Cash Transfer Program (financed from the national budget). - Launch modules of the Unified Social Registry Information Management System (SIG-RSU) to monitor poor and vulnerable households. ### Gender equality and the 2024-2030 PNEEG - Progress to date (selected indicators) - Proportion of women in government: increased from 7.69 percent in 2011 to 18.18 percent in 2024. - Office of the Constitutional Council: from 28.57 percent in 2014 to 42.86 percent in 2021. - National Assembly: from 9.02 percent in 2011 to 12.60 percent in 2024. - Chamber of Traditional Kings and Chiefs: from 6.82 percent in 2018 to 14.29 percent in 2022. - 88 platforms to combat gender-based violence set up. - 70 gender units established between 2007 and 2023 (64 in public sector, 6 in private sector). - Forward-looking aims - Step up actions to promote girls’ schooling and education, strengthen governance of girls’ education, combat violence against women, and empower women economically, socially, and politically. - Adopt the 2024-2030 National Policy on Equality, Equity, and Gender (PNEEG) before the end of 2024. - PNEEG strategic objectives (as stated) - promote gender mainstreaming in all areas, inclusive governance, leadership, and human rights; - promote inclusive economic and financial development, ensuring equitable access to means of production and infrastructure and economic empowerment; - promote equal rights to education, opportunity, social protection, and basic social services; - develop and promote mechanisms for sustainable management of natural resources and adaptation of men and women to the effects of climate change; - develop mechanisms to promote gender norms, information, and awareness-raising among all actors for a change in behavior in favor of equity and equality in relations between men and women; - develop capacity-building mechanisms and institutional mechanisms to promote gender equity and equality. ### Structural reforms: improvement of public financial management (PFM) - Current expenditure reforms: continue implementation of fiscal regulation; hold program performance conferences; implement payroll strategy actions; categorize companies and update the reference price database. - Investment expenditure reforms: reduce time to award public contracts; consolidate digitization gains in public procurement; improve absorption capacity of capital expenditure. - Additional PFM strengthening actions - Implement stock accounting modules: “asset monitoring” and “asset entry”; train involved personnel. - Continue management control implementation within ministries through a complete system review and deployment-strengthening plan. - Deploy Internal Budgetary Control (IBC) within other ministries in 2025. - Strengthen transparency: produce and publish budget execution reports; raise citizen awareness via the 2025 Citizen Budget document. - Develop a framework for monitoring climate-related budget spending and integrate it into budget documentation. - Strengthen analysis of climate-related fiscal risks in the Statement of Fiscal Risk. - Strengthen efficiency of public investment in line with recommendations of the 2017 and 2021 Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA), 2023 Climate PIMA (C-PIMA), and Green PFM to incorporate climate change in project selection, budgeting, and implementation. - Public procurement digitization and transparency - Introduce SIGOMAP version 2 incorporating economic operator actions to shorten procurement times and increase transparency. - Make e-procurement mandatory for at least 80 percent of transactions involving conventional procedures (amounts in excess of CFAF 100 million) between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025 (structural benchmark for end-July 2025). - Cap use of direct public procurement procedures at 20 percent of all contracts. - Publish a list of approved procurement contracts identifying their holders and publish procurement audit reports. - Public-private partnerships (PPPs) - National PPP Steering Committee (CNP-PPP) to ensure commitments do not expose government to near-term fiscal risks. - Publish annual assessment of fiscal risks associated with PPP contracts and annual reviews of the PPP portfolio in coordination with contracting authorities, including information on the PPP portfolio in accordance with Article 24 of Decree No. 2018-358 (structural benchmark for end-February 2025). - Improve coordination between central and local governments, PPP management, alignment of current and capital expenditures, and asset reporting. ### Energy sector: viability, access, supply balance, and PETROCI Holding - Objectives: consolidate the electricity sector and make Côte d’Ivoire a sub-regional energy hub; focus on universal access, supply-demand balance, and financial sustainability. - Electricity access programs (PRONER, PEPT, PRONEX) - National access and coverage rates: increase from 97.2 percent and 88.1 percent, respectively, in 2023 to 100 percent in 2025. - Service rate: reach 75 percent in 2025, compared to 64 percent in 2023. - 2025 actions: adopt remaining four (4) implementing texts of the Electricity Code; adopt and operationalize regulatory framework for off-grid electrification; finalize private sector model for off-grid electrification; set up coordination framework for grid and off-grid strategies. - Generation capacity and renewable targets - Implement Electric Power Generation and Transmission Master Plan to increase generation capacity from 2,907 MW at end-2023 to 5,128 MW in 2030. - Accelerate operationalization of the Sectoral Policy for the Development of Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency 2020-2030 (PSDEREE) to meet an energy mix commitment of 45 percent renewable energy by 2030. - Financial sustainability and recent challenges - First half of 2024: sector operating and cash balances showed a deficit due to use of HVO and HFO liquid fuels (more expensive than gas) to address damage to thermal production facilities, and accumulation of unpaid receivables from certain sub-region countries amounting to CFAF 143.482 billion. - Côte d’Ivoire continued to supply electricity to these countries despite unpaid receivables. - Government intends to adopt a comprehensive plan to reorganize the sector in the first half of 2025, including studies to optimize the pricing grid for electricity distribution. - Timetable for changes to be adopted after studies, with implementation expected to start in 2026 at the earliest. - Adopt a text supplementing regulatory framework of Decree No. 2016-786 of October 16, 2016, in the first half of 2025 to make annual price adjustments systematic, with staggered implementation procedures. - PETROCI Holding 2024-2028 strategic plan (PS2428) - Structured around four (4) strategic directions: institutionalize governance; improve operational and technical performance; improve financial performance; ensure sustainability and responsibility. - Expected outcome: increase the company’s net income tenfold over the period 2024-2028 and promote development of an integrated and diversified oil economy. ### Improving the business climate, private sector development, and industrial policy - Reform agenda and private investment - New three-year Reform Agenda 2025-2027 based on World Bank’s Business Ready (B-Ready) index to be adopted in the last quarter of 2024. - Emphasis on: developing industrial clusters and agricultural hubs; making businesses more competitive; supporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs); promoting creation of formal businesses. - Digitalization and identifiers - Expand use of the unique business identifier (UBI) to the 10 competitive economic hubs in the interior by 2026 to facilitate operations between private sector and local governments and ensure traceability. - Digitize business permits and licenses: launch an e-license platform for application submission and renewal; streamline issuance processes. - Single Window for Foreign Trade (GUCE) - Strengthen GUCE with six (6) new modules by end-December 2024: - E-Visit; - EXEMPTION; - E-CO; - E-MOVEMENT; - E-RELEASE; - E-BOOKING. - Industrial clusters and agricultural hubs - Development strategies and action plans for clusters finalized and to be submitted to the Council of Ministers for adoption before end-2024. - Nine (9) agricultural hubs identified; gradual deployment following launch of Agricultural Hubs 1 and 2: 2PAI-Bélier at Yamoussoukro and 2PAI-Nord in Sinématiali. - Draft law on creation and management of industrial zones adopted by Council of Ministers in June 2024; to be presented to Parliament before end-December 2024. - DAICE program and Industrial Development Fund - Diversification, Industrial Acceleration, Competitiveness, and Jobs (DAICE) program launched August 2024 with funding from African Development Bank (AfDB) of €165 million, or CFAF 116.16 billion. - DAICE aims to support economic diversification, accelerate industrialization, and create jobs by improving: competitiveness of value chains; access to finance for SMEs; promotion of investments. - Government to conduct due diligence for creation and operationalization of the Industrial Development Fund to facilitate financing of the industrial sector. - Issue a decree setting conditions and procedures for affixing bar codes to products intended for consumption to ensure traceability and quality. - SME support measures - Operationalize Single Window for Business Development (GUDE-PME) to accelerate technical and managerial support, facilitate access to public contracts, and support SME expansion. - Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Credit Guarantee Company (SGPME) to offer partial portfolio and individual guarantee products to reduce credit risk and leverage SME access to financing. - Work with banks, microfinance institutions, and investment funds to jointly develop financing and investment products tailored to SMEs. *Source: 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 40. The government’s development strategy will rely more heavily on human capital* ### 58. The SME ecosystem should benefit from the reform of the SME Development Policy ### 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 58. The SME ecosystem should benefit from the reform of the SME Development Policy ### Reform of SME Development Policy Framework Law and SNDEI - Government intends to adopt a draft reform of the SME Development Policy Framework Law in the first half of 2025. - New principles introduced in the draft law: - (i) the international concept of “thinking small”; - (ii) the promotion of innovation, environmental protection, and the green economy; - (iii) the effectiveness and coherence of policy coordination in support of SMEs; - (iv) the protection of SME assets; - (v) the promotion of good governance; - (vi) the empowerment of SMEs in wealth creation; - (vii) the extension of local content to the SME sector. - Institutional and definitional changes: - Introduction of a new status of Intermediate-Sized Enterprise for companies with an annual turnover between CFAF 3 billion and CFAF 5 billion to support their evolution into “National Champions.” - Raising thresholds for the various categories of SMEs to reflect the dynamic growth of the Ivorian economy based on studies among government departments and the private sector. - National Strategy for the Development of Entrepreneurship and Innovation (2024-2028 SNDEI): - To be adopted before the end of the first quarter of 2025. - Objective: foster, over 2024-2028, a class of dynamic, innovative, and high-impact local entrepreneurs. - Five (5) strategic directions: - (i) developing a culture of innovation and entrepreneurial skills among the Ivorian population; - (ii) optimizing the dissemination of important information; - (iii) increasing the participation of local entrepreneurs in public and private procurement; - (iv) facilitating access to adequate financing for local entrepreneurs; - (v) strengthening the connection between the research community and the private sector. - Expected outcomes: a tenfold increase in the number of public contracts awarded to SMEs, and a tenfold increase in the number of SMEs and project developers benefiting from the Ivorian Innovation Fund and the Guarantee Fund. ### Formalization, SME registration, and informal sector reduction - Pilot entrepreneur registration project: - Launched on March 11, 2024, in the city of San Pedro. - Registered 25,720 entrepreneurs in the pilot. - Registration focused on craftspeople and small-scale traders who could be geolocated. - Expansion phase in 2025 planned to extend operation to Bouaké, Yamoussoukro, Man, Gagnoa, Daloa, Odienné, Korhogo, Abidjan, Dabou, and Abengourou. - Project aims: build a database, implement a digital solution, broaden the tax base, better target support initiatives, and facilitate movement of businesses into the formal economy. ### Initiatives to Address Informal Employment (Box 2) - Integrated National Strategy for the Transition to the Formal Economy (SNIT-EF): - Pilot phase over 2020-2024 to encourage actors in the informal economy to formalize via administrative registration and social protection. - Social Security Plan for Self-Employed Workers (RSTI): - Mandatory social coverage for all self-employed workers (illness, accident, maternity, retirement). - RSTI is supplementary to the National Social Security Fund (CNPS) basic plan. - Intended population: all workers not covered by the basic plan (around 7,000,000 people in 2019). - Promotion of digitization of social protection services (CNPS, UHC) to facilitate online business registration and social contributions. - Adoption of entrepreneur status and issuance of identification certificates to SMEs. - Operationalization of the Labor Market Information System, managed by the National Observatory of Employment and Training, to enable targeted actions to accelerate transition to the formal economy. ### Improving the Governance Framework and Anti-Corruption Measures - National Anti-Corruption Strategy (2024-2028 NACS): - Adopted in June 2024 and to be widely disseminated to the public before end-2024. - To be put into effect over 2025-2028 through a national program. - NACS provisions: increase financial autonomy of anti-corruption structures and align legal framework with international standards, notably the United Nations Convention. - Required legal and regulatory actions: - (i) amend Ordinance No. 2013-660 of September 20, 2013; - (ii) update the law on the handling of gifts; - (iii) strengthen the framework for the protection of whistleblowers; - (iv) adopt specific regulations for anti-corruption bodies. - Governance bodies and steering, monitoring, and evaluation tools to be put in place in the last half of 2024 as a prerequisite for implementation. - Asset declarations: - Application of sanctions since November 13, 2023, increased the declaration rate to 84.4 percent at end-June 2024. - Declaration rate expected to reach 90 percent at end-2024. - Future focus: strengthen processing and verification of asset declarations and evaluate the current system to define institutional, organizational, and information system requirements. ### AML/CFT and Beneficial Ownership Measures - Compliance with FATF’s 40 recommendations is the objective. - GIABA follow-up (May 2024) on mutual evaluation second cycle: - Out of 40 recommendations: largely compliant with fourteen (14), in compliance with four (4), partially in compliance with fifteen (15), and not in compliance with seven (7). - Country has 13 recommendations on the agenda for rating review at the next plenary session. - Beneficial ownership register management: - Deployment of an information system to interconnect all courts, the Directorate General of Taxes (DGI), and the Ivorian Centre for the Promotion of Investments in Côte d’Ivoire (CEPICI) by end-2025. - Legal framework adjustments: - Make legal framework compliant with FATF Recommendation #6 to implement targeted UN financial sanctions related to terrorism and its financing. - Pursue risk-based monitoring of non-profit organizations in accordance with FATF Recommendation #8 (SB end December 2025). ### Developing the Financial Sector and Financial Inclusion - Banking sector strengthening: - Restructuring of the portfolio of state-owned banks brought all state-owned banks up to standard in 2024. - Completion of commitments from the sale at end-2023 of Banque Populaire de Côte d’Ivoire (BPCI) to Africa Financial Group (AFG) Bank; process to be finalized at end-2024 via certification of 2023 accounts. - WAEMU Council of Ministers decision of December 21, 2023, raised minimum share capital of banks from CFAF 10 billion to CFAF 20 billion. - Banks licensed before January 1, 2024, have three years to comply with the new threshold. - Government and BCEAO will work to mitigate major risks to the Ivorian financial system, including climate change and cybercrime. - Financial Sector Development Strategy (FSDS) implementation measures: - (i) Continued promotion of factoring following enactment of Law No. 2023-423 of May 22, 2023, on factoring activity in Côte d’Ivoire; - (ii) Develop financial instruments and products adapted to SME financing (leasing and Islamic finance) in conjunction with the Single Window for the Development of SMEs (GUDE-PME); - (iii) Launch the Agricultural Commodity Exchange (BMPA); - (iv) Increase mobilization of long-term resources through intensification of Deposit and Consignment Fund activities; - (v) Increase insurance penetration rate through micro-insurance and agricultural or index insurance; - (vi) Promote financial technologies (Fintech). - National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS): - Review of 2019–2024 NFIS performed in May 2024; review highlighted gender, environment, digital finance, customer protection, and innovative agricultural financing. - New NFIS for 2025-2029 to be developed in 2025. - Introduction of a coffee-cocoa producer’s card with a bank chip to facilitate financial transactions and improve rural access to financial services. ### Financial Services Interoperability Platform (Box 3) - Platform characteristics: - Instant, interoperable payment system operating 24/7 enabling instant transactions across account types and institutions and payments to merchants with interoperable QR Codes or payment requests. - Pilot phase: - Launched on July 22, 2024. - Involves 90 financial institutions: 67 banks, 9 electronic money institutions, and 14 decentralized financial systems. - Expected impacts: - Reduction in transaction costs for customers through pooled processing costs; - Secure clearing and settlement mechanisms for inter-network transactions; - Diversification of service offerings by extending financial services to all account types and acceptance networks. ### Strengthening Resilience to Climate Change (RM actions and timelines) - RM 1: - 2024: document review and mapping of actors and partners with climate standards and green finance instruments completed. - Next steps: choose and define markers; issue an interministerial order instituting marking; incorporate markers into project preparation tools and the Public Investment Program (PIP); transpose marking grid into the PIP information system. - RM 2: - Three macroeconomic models integrating climate variables (IMF, World Bank, Millennium Institute) identified; require country adaptation and staff capacity development. - Technical assistance request submitted to the IMF in October 2024 for RM 2 implementation. - RM 3: - Interministerial order to be adopted in 2025 pursuant to Decree No. 2022-742 to make inclusion of climate considerations mandatory in assessment and selection of public investment projects. - RM 5: - Launch Project Management Unit in the first quarter of 2025 through recruitment of key positions. - Capacity development and awareness-raising activities planned for the second half of 2025 for stakeholders including SODEXAM, insurance sector actors, and cotton sector stakeholders. - RM 6 and RM 7: - Interministerial Order No. 000136/MINEDDTE/MFB of March 28, 2024 establishes ICAT project coordination for taxonomy design and climate financial reporting architecture. - Transition taxonomy to be developed based on the European green taxonomy and the WAEMU circular taxonomy. - Government will issue a decree to: (i) introduce a climate risk reporting framework for state-owned enterprises and private non-financial corporations; (ii) make climate risk-based financial reporting mandatory for those entities. - RM 11: - Authorizations and Approvals Commission met on August 22, 2024, to approve the first energy auditors. - Tenders for five energy audits of public sector buildings to be launched between October and November 2024, with audits to be carried out in 2025. - RM 12: - Technical assistance requested from the IMF in October 2024 to develop a carbon tax strategy in 2025. - Carbon tax strategy to be adopted by the Council of Ministers by end-December 2025 at the latest. - RM 16: - Finalization of decrees approving concession agreements for two solar power plants with a total capacity of more than 100 MWp underway and to be completed in the second half of 2025. ### Strengthening the National Statistical System and Data Dissemination - Institutional actions: - Following decrees implementing Law No. 2020-950 of December 7, 2020, ensure operationalization of the National Statistics Council (CNStat), the National Statistics Agency (ANStat), and the National Fund for the Development of Statistics (FNDS). - Adopt a decree on the organization and operation of the National Authority for Official Statistics (ANSP). - Production and dissemination priorities: - Introduce new indicators and strengthen national accounts. - Improve the company database. - Adhere to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) by end-2025 at the latest. - Specific statistical activities: - Conduct General Census of Companies and Businesses in Côte d’Ivoire (2022-2023 RGEE-CI) under the Program for the Harmonization and Improvement of Statistics (PHAS) to obtain an up-to-date economic and financial database covering formal and informal sectors and to establish a Geographic Information System (GIS). - Complete alignment of Quarterly National Accounts (QNAs) with the rebased Annual National Accounts (ANAs) and begin production of QNAs using the demand approach. - Continue production of high-frequency indicators: revamped Construction and Public Works Leading Indicator, balances of opinion in industry, Services Sales Index, Services Producer Price Index, and unit value indices for exports and imports. - Continue to publish quarterly data on central government debt in the quarter following the end of the reference quarter on Côte d’Ivoire’s National Summary Data Page (https://nso-cotedivoire.opendataforafrica.org/awirqrf/national-summary-data-page-nsdp). - Disseminate historical annual general government operations data up to year 2023 by end-December 2024 through the National Summary Data Page (SB end March 2025). - Continue efforts to adhere to the SDDS no later than end-2025 and become the sixth sub-Saharan African country to join the SDDS. *Source: 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 58. The SME ecosystem should benefit from the reform of the SME Development Policy* ### 69. The government estimates that the funding needs of the 2024–2026 program will be ### 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 69. The government estimates that the funding needs of the 2024–2026 program will be ### Funding plan and financing strategy - The government estimates that the funding needs of the 2024–2026 program will be met, and funding sources have been identified for the next 12 months. - Additional financing will be mobilized on the regional money market and with external partners. - Domestic strategy: - Optimize the use of fund-raising on the regional market to preserve private sector access to credit. - External strategy: - Recourse to the international market, depending on financial conditions. - Preference for donor community contributions to strengthen regional exchange reserves. ### Program monitoring, review timetable, and conditionality - The program will be subject to semi-annual monitoring by the IMF’s Executive Board based on quantitative indicators and criteria, structural benchmarks (SBs), and reform measures (RMs). - Fifth and sixth semi-annual reviews: - Will take place on or after November 15, 2025, and May 15, 2026. - Will be based respectively on end-June 2025 and end-December 2025 test dates for periodic performance criteria and indicative targets. - Additional timing and targets: - Quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) and indicative targets (ITs) were added for end-June and end-December 2025, as well as ITs for end-September 2025. - Technical adjustment: - Modification proposed to the QPC of the ceiling on the present value of new external debt to exclude potential future debt management operations (DMOs) from the definition of external debt for the QPC calculation. - Structural conditionality augmented to include new SBs on: - Domestic revenue mobilization (DRM), governance, and data dissemination. ### Government policy commitments and safeguards - The government plans to: - Refrain from accumulating new domestic arrears and all types of advances on revenue and from contracting non-concessional external loans other than those specified in the TMU. - Issue public securities through auctions held by the BCEAO or any other form of public securities issue on the WAEMU financial market, in consultation with IMF staff for any new financing. - Refrain from introducing or tightening restrictions on payments and transfers for current international transactions, introducing multiple currency practices, entering into bilateral payment arrangements that are inconsistent with Article VIII of the IMF Articles of Agreement, or introducing or tightening import restrictions for balance of payments purposes. - Adopt any new financial or structural measures that may be necessary for the success of its policies, in consultation with the IMF. ### Key quantitative indicators and sample figures (Table 1 highlights) - Ceiling on the present value of new external debt (with a maturity of more than one year) contracted or guaranteed by the central government (millions of US$): 4,242; 2,451; MET; 4,650; ...; 2,642; MET; 1,157; 3,286; NOT MET; 4,422; 3,895; MET; 5,505; 6,063. - Floor on government tax revenue: 4,620; 4,791; MET; 6,306; ...; 6,507; MET; 1,643; 1,646; MET; 3,538; 3,559; MET; 5,299; 7,156. - Ceiling on net domestic financing (incl. the issuance of securities in CFAF): 952; 952; MET; 1,160; 1,420; 1,364; MET; 14; (197); MET; 594; (61); MET; 1,036; 1,355. - Floor on the overall fiscal balance (incl. grants) (millions of CFAF or program currency as presented): (2,007); (1,507); MET; (2,514); ...; (2,508); MET; (507); (504); MET; (1,085); (963); MET; (1,505); (2,121); (637); (1,058); (1,459); (1,737). - Performance Criteria on Continuous Basis: - Ceiling on accumulation of new external arrears by the central government (continuous basis): 0; 0; MET; 0; ...; 0; MET; 0; 0; MET; 0; 0; MET; 0; 0; 0; 0; 0; 0. - Ceiling on accumulation of new domestic arrears by the central government (continuous basis): 0; 0; MET; 0; ...; 0; MET; 0; 0; MET; 0; 0; MET; 0; 0; 0; 0; 0; 0. - Indicative and program-related financial flows (Memorandum Items, millions of US$): - Program grants: 160; 97; ...; 324; ...; 322; ...; 0; 0; ...; 170; 161; ...; 170; ...; 331; 0; 141; 141; 262. - Program loans: 169; 439; ...; 930; ...; 608; ...; 957; -; ...; 3,110; 3,134; ...; 3,110; ...; 3,523; 541; 573; 606; 969. - Project grants: 126; 77; ...; 191; ...; 189; ...; 17; 8; ...; 29; 36; ...; 45; ...; 81; 43; 68; 102; 170. - Project loans: 1,860; 934; ...; 2,785; ...; 2,294; ...; 354; 221; ...; 925; 844; ...; 1,135; ...; 1,539; 384; 864; 1,512; 2,160. - Cumulative C2D: 100; ...; 200; ...; 141; ...; 20; 3; ...; 80; 100; ...; 140; ...; 200; 0; 88; 88; 149. - Total pro-poor spending: 2,403; ...; 3,318; ...; 3,497; ...; 748; 838; ...; 1,655; 1,661; ...; 2,467; ...; 3,405; 845; 1,869; 2,786; 3,845. ### Structural benchmarks, prior actions, and PFM/Governance/Data reforms (Table 2 highlights) - Prior Action (Revenue Mobilization): - Submit to parliament 2025 budget in line with program objectives, including new revenue measures. - New and proposed structural benchmarks and deadlines: - Apply market valuation as a basis for property taxation covering all real estate parcels irrespective of built or unbuilt classification. Due: End-May 2025. - Improve estimates of tax expenditures, particularly those resulting from the Investment Code, including by improving primary data to include tax credits and tax holidays on all taxes covered in the investment code. Due: End-September 2025. - Make the legal framework compliant with FATF Recommendation 6 and pursue risk-based monitoring per FATF Recommendation 8. Due: End-December 2025. - Disseminate historical annual general government operations data up to year 2023 by end-December 2024 through the National Summary Data Page. Due: End-March 2025. - Current Structural Benchmarks (selected, with status and due dates): - Establish and publish clear criteria and procedures for granting and eliminating reduced VAT rates and/or exemptions (end-June 2025). - Prepare and implement a plan to manage and collect outstanding tax arrears (Met end-September 2023). - Cabinet approval of a Medium-Term Revenue Mobilization strategy (MTRS) with revenue targets and timeline (Met end-May 2024). - Strengthen automated VAT management to incorporate control of VAT deduction collected at customs (Met end-June 2024). - Issue an ordinance to streamline provisions relating to exemptions linked to the investment code (Met end-September 2024). - Continue to enforce e-procurement use by at least 80 percent of all ordinary operations (those with larger than 100 million CFAF) between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025 (due end-July 2025). - Publish annual reviews of the PPP portfolio in accordance with article 24 of Decree No. 2018-358 (due end-February 2025). - Adopt by the council of ministers the draft law on national debt policy (Met End-September 2023). - Treasury Single Account (TSA): Adopt a timetable for closing accounts with commercial banks (Met End-December 2023). - Enforce e-procurement to be used by an average of at least 10 percent of operations starting from October 2023 (Met End-December 2023). - Enforce e-procurement to be used by at least 50 percent of all ordinary operations (value larger than 100 million CFAF) between January 1, 2024, and June 30, 2024 (Met End-July 2024). - Designate AML/CFT supervisors for specified sectors and set out their powers in line with FATF Recommendation 28 (Met End-May 2024). - Publish quarterly central government debt data within one quarter after the end of the reference quarter on Côte d’Ivoire’s National Summary Data Page (Met end-September 2024). - Complete a mid-term review of the National Strategy for Financial Inclusion to reflect government priorities (Met end-May 2024). ### RSF Reform Measures for climate, governance, and sectoral resilience (Table 3 highlights) - RM1 (Integration of climate into public financial management): - Adopt a ministerial arrêté establishing a system for tagging climate-related investment expenditure at the stage of public investment programming and integrate into the 2026 budget preparation process initially covering five (5) ministries. - Prepare and publish a first climate budget statement attached to the 2026 budget law. - Diagnostic reference: C-PIMA and green PFM TA report. - Proposed timing: End of October 2025 (5th EFF/ECF review). - Expected outcomes: Ministerial arrêté establishing tagging system (October 2024); Climate budget statement attached to the 2026 budget law. - Development partner / IMF CD: GCA/ IMF TA. - RM2: - Establish a modeling framework and integrate quantitative analysis of climate-related fiscal risks into the fiscal risk statement for end-October 2025. - Diagnostic reference: C-PIMA and green PFM TA report. - Proposed timing: End of October 2025 (5th EFF/ECF review). - Expected outcome: Annex to the 2026 budget law on the declaration of budgetary risks incorporating quantification of climate risks. - Development partner / IMF CD: IMF TA. - RM3: - Adopt an interministerial arrêté to make it mandatory to integrate climate considerations into appraisal and selection of public investment projects and modify decree 96-894 on environmental impact assessments to integrate climate considerations. - Diagnostic reference: C-PIMA and green PFM TA report. - Proposed timing: End of October 2025 (5th EFF/ECF review). - Expected outcomes: Interministerial arrêté implementing decree no. 2022-742 (end October 2025); Decree 96-894 modified to incorporate climate (end June 2024). - RM4 (Strengthening governance of climate policies): - Set up a national commission in charge of climate change issues under the Prime Minister's Office with a mandate to ensure compliance with international commitments and integration of climate issues into sectoral policies, planning, and disaster risk management. - Commission to produce and publish an annual progress report on the climate transition with presentation at the Council of Ministers. - Diagnostic reference: CCDR; AfDB report on mobilizing climate financing in the private sector. - Proposed timing: End of October 2024, 3rd EFF/ECF review. - Status: MET (Decree creating the National Commission end June 2024; Official communication and publication of the annual progress report end October 2024). - RM5 (Exposed and vulnerable agriculture sector): - Gradually implement an insurance system against climate hazards, starting with a pilot insurance system for the cotton sector (capacity-building for stakeholders and preparations). *Sources: Ivoirian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.* ### introduction of insurance products for the sector's stakeholders ### introduction of insurance products for the sector's stakeholders ### Overview and Specific Commitment - Introduction of insurance products for the sector's stakeholders by the end of December 2025. - CCDR End of December 2025; 6th EFF/ECF review. - Expected deliverables: - Report on awareness-raising and capacity-building activities. - Information notes on the insurance product for the cotton sector available (end December 2025). - BOAD: Supervision of the implementation of activities in line with procedures; partial financial contribution to subsidize insurance premiums for the second stage of the project. ### Timeline and Deliverables (selected entries) - End of December 2025: Introduction of insurance products for sector stakeholders; information notes on the insurance product for the cotton sector available. - CCDR End of December 2025; 6th EFF/ECF review — report on awareness-raising and capacity-building activities. ### Development Partner Roles (directly referenced) - BOAD: supervise implementation of activities in line with procedures; provide partial financial contribution to subsidize insurance premiums for the second stage of the project. - CCDR: timing and review reference for deliverables related to the insurance product introduction. ### Related RSF Reform Measures (contextual measures extracted from the same matrix) - RM6 (End of April 2025; 4th EFF/ECF review): - Develop architecture for climate-related financial information and adopt a decree introducing two complementary frameworks and implementation timetable: (i) a transition taxonomy and (ii) an inter-ministerial coordination mechanism. - Expected outcomes: Interministerial arrêté on coordination mechanism (March 2024); Decree on transition taxonomy (end of April 2025). - IMF/ World Bank TA available. - RM7 (End of April 2025; 4th EFF/ECF review): - Adopt a decree to introduce a climate risk disclosure framework for state-owned enterprises and private non-financial companies, integrated into financial reporting. - Expected outcome: Decree introducing a climate risk disclosure framework and requirement (end April 2025). - IMF/ World Bank TA available. - RM8 (End of October 2024, 3rd EFF/ECF review): - Adopt a decree to make the green finance platform operational (website; training and capacity-building plan) and design/implement a Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system for monitoring and tracking climate finance. - Expected outcomes: Decree operationalizing Green Finance Platform; Website; Training and capacity-building plan; MRV framework. - ICAT support for MRV conceptualization, training, and roadmap development. - RM9 (End of December 2024; 4th EFF/ECF review): - Deploy multi-hazard early warning system pilot in Adzopé; produce report summarizing first alerts (December 2024). - Development partners: AFD, WMO, World Bank. - RM10 (End of October 2024, 3rd EFF/ECF review): - Design and adopt standardized maintenance methodologies for climate-resilient road infrastructure; pilot in Greater Abidjan. - Expected outputs: Road design manual (end March 2024); Stocktaking report (end October 2024). - RM11 (End of September 2025; 5th EFF/ECF review): - Operationalize mandatory energy audit system for entities above benchmarks; complete first 5 audits by end of September 2025; energy labeling system for new air conditioners, refrigerators and electric lamps by December 2024. - Expected outputs: First five audits completed (end September 2025); List of approved energy auditors (end March 2025); List of organizations subject to energy audits (end March 2025); Notice to importers on energy label procedures (end December 2024). - Partners: KFW, World Bank and EU. - RM12 (End of December 2025; 6th EFF/ECF review): - Continue fuel pricing mechanism with automatic adjustment; develop carbon taxation strategy and adjust fuel prices in line with strategy by end of December 2025. - Expected outputs: Request TA from IMF staff (October 2024); Strategy on carbon taxation adopted by the Government (end December 2025); If necessary, adopt legislative text to adjust fuel prices. - IMF TA to elaborate the strategy on carbon taxation. - RM13 (End of April 2024, 2nd EFF/ECF review): - Adopt decree to promote electric mobility by end of April 2024 to help achieve 10 percent target for electric vehicles in the fleet by 2030. - Decree to address installation of electric charging stations, technical inspections, insurance for electric vehicles, and standards for battery charging stations. - Partner: GIZ. - RM14 (End of December 2025; 6th EFF/ECF review): - Examine and, if necessary, reform environmental taxation on combustion engine vehicles as part of carbon taxation strategy; adopt regulations for environmental vehicle tax reforms if needed. - Expected output: Strategy on carbon taxation adopted by the Government (end December 2025); If necessary, issue regulations for environmental vehicle tax reforms. - IMF TA to elaborate the strategy on carbon taxation. - RM15 (End of October 2024, 3rd EFF/ECF review): - Integrate funding from UNFCCC windows (GEF, GCF, AF), associated environmental taxes and earmarked fees into the State budget and align with NDCs where applicable. - Expected output: Draft 2025 budget law (end October 2024). - RM16 (End of December 2025; 6th EFF/ECF review): - Finalize tendering for development, construction, and operation of solar power plants; competitive procurement to be completed by end of 2025 for at least 100 MW installed capacity. - Expected outputs: Two decrees approving agreements for construction, operation, and transfer of two solar photovoltaic power plants (end December 2025). - Partners: EU, World Bank. *Source: 1civea2025001-print-pdf - introduction of insurance products for the sector's stakeholders* ### 13. For program monitoring purposes, external debt is deemed to be contracted or ### 13. For program monitoring purposes, external debt is deemed to be contracted or ### External debt: conditions for contracting and valuation - External debt is deemed contracted or guaranteed once all conditions for its entrance into effect have been met, including approval of the relevant agreement by the government of Côte d’Ivoire (Council of Ministers) if necessary. - For issuance of eurobonds, the amount deemed contracted is the amount subscribed/purchased at the end of the subscription/purchase period as specified in the final clauses of the exchange. - For program purposes, the value in U.S. dollars of new external debt is calculated using the average exchange rate for December 2022 in the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS) database, which are: - 619.481 FCFA per U.S. dollar - 1.059 U.S. dollar per euro - 135.42 Japanese Yen per U.S. dollar - 1.329 U.S. dollar per SDR ### Present value (PV) calculation and concessionality - The PV of new external debt is calculated by discounting all future debt service payments (principal and interest) on the basis of a program discount rate of 5 percent and taking account of all loan conditions, including the maturity, grace period, payment schedule, front-end fees and management fees. - The PV is calculated using the IMF model for this type of calculation. - A debt is considered concessional if on the date on which it is contracted the ratio of its present value to its face value is less than 65 percent (equivalent to a grant element of at least 35 percent). - In the case of loans for which the grant element is zero or less than zero, the PV is set at an amount equal to the face value. ### Variable interest rate debt treatment - For variable interest rate debt structured as a reference interest rate plus a fixed margin, the PV is calculated on the basis of the program reference rate plus the fixed margin (in basis points) specified in the loan agreement. - The program reference rate for the euro six-month FIRF is 2.63 percent and will remain unchanged for the duration of the program. - The spread of the US$ six-month FIRF over the euro six-month FIRF is 50 basis points. ### Adjustors for the performance criterion on the PV of new external debt - The program ceiling applicable to the PV of new external debt is adjusted upward up to a maximum of 5 percent of the ceiling on the PV of external debt in cases in which differences vis-à-vis the PC on the PV of new debt are caused by a variation in financing conditions (interest, maturity, grace period, payment schedule, front-end fees, management fees) of the debt or debts. - The adjustor may not be applied when the differences are the result of an increase in the face value of the total debt contracted or guaranteed. ### Reporting and consultation obligations - The authorities will inform IMF staff of any planned external borrowing and the conditions on such borrowing before the loans are either contracted or guaranteed by the government. - The authorities will inform Fund staff of the signature of any new external debt contracted or guaranteed by the government, including the conditions on such debt. - Data on new external debt, the amount outstanding, and the accumulation and repayment of external payments arrears will be reported monthly within six weeks of the end of each month. ### Table 1. Côte d'Ivoire: External Borrowing Plan (2024–December 2025) — Key figures (PPG External Debt) - By Sources of Debt Financing (Volume of New Debt, US$ million 1/ ; PV of New Debt, US$ million 1/): - Total: 6468.5 ; 6063.1 - January-March 2025: 1925.0 ; 1780.9 - January-June 2025: 2945.2 ; 2667.1 - January-September 2025: 4015.4 ; 3625.7 - January-December 2025: 4729.3 ; 4238.1 - Concessional Debt: - Total: 122.1 ; 59.7 - January-March 2025: 0.0 ; 0.0 - January-June 2025: 13.3 ; 7.4 - January-September 2025: 94.6 ; 48.3 - January-December 2025: 103.9 ; 53.5 - Multilateral debt: - Total: 103.9 ; 53.5 - January-March 2025: 0.0 ; 0.0 - January-June 2025: 13.3 ; 7.4 - January-September 2025: 94.6 ; 48.3 - January-December 2025: 103.9 ; 53.5 - Other concessional: - Total: 18.1 ; 6.3 - January-March 2025: 0.0 ; 0.0 - January-June 2025: 0.0 ; 0.0 - January-September 2025: 0.0 ; 0.0 - January-December 2025: 0.0 ; 0.0 - Non-Concessional Debt 2/: - Total: 6346.4 ; 6003.4 - January-March 2025: 1925.0 ; 1780.9 - January-June 2025: 2931.9 ; 2659.7 - January-September 2025: 3920.8 ; 3577.4 - January-December 2025: 4625.3 ; 4184.7 - Semi-concessional debt 3/: - Total: 2658.2 ; 2315.2 - January-March 2025: 1100.6 ; 956.5 - January-June 2025: 1962.9 ; 1690.7 - January-September 2025: 2568.3 ; 2224.9 - January-December 2025: 3211.8 ; 2771.1 - Commercial terms 4/: - Total: 3688.2 ; 3688.2 - January-March 2025: 824.4 ; 824.4 - January-June 2025: 969.0 ; 969.0 - January-September 2025: 1352.5 ; 1352.5 - January-December 2025: 1413.6 ; 1413.6 - Uses of Debt Financing (Volume of New Debt, US$ million 1/ ; PV of New Debt, US$ million 1/): - Total: 6468.5 ; 6063.1 - January-March 2025: 1925.0 ; 1780.9 - January-June 2025: 2945.2 ; 2667.1 - January-September 2025: 4015.4 ; 3625.7 - January-December 2025: 4729.3 ; 4238.1 - Infrastructure: - Total: 191.3 ; 157.3 - January-March 2025: 1311.5 ; 1245.7 - January-June 2025: 1649.9 ; 1554.1 - January-September 2025: 2505.5 ; 2361.1 - January-December 2025: 2745.7 ; 2577.9 - Social expenditure: - Total: 1570.2 ; 1329.5 - January-March 2025: 393.7 ; 339.9 - January-June 2025: 796.6 ; 673.6 - January-September 2025: 996.6 ; 813.1 - January-December 2025: 1470.2 ; 1208.7 - Budget financing: - Total: 2639.9 ; 2634.0 - January-March 2025: 0.0 ; 0.0 - January-June 2025: 0.0 ; 0.0 - January-September 2025: 0.0 ; 0.0 - January-December 2025: 0.0 ; 0.0 - Other: - Total: 2067.2 ; 1942.3 - January-March 2025: 219.8 ; 195.3 - January-June 2025: 498.7 ; 439.4 - January-September 2025: 513.3 ; 451.5 - January-December 2025: 513.3 ; 451.5 - Notes from Table 1: - Source: Ivoirian authorities. - 2/ Concessional debt is defined as debt with a grant element that exceeds the minimum threshold of 35 percent. - 3/ Debt with a positive grant element which does not meet the minimum grant element. - 4/ Debt without a positive grant element. For commercial debt, the present value would be defined as the nominal/face value - 1/ Contracting and guaranteeing of new debt. The present value of debt is calculated using the terms of individual loans and ### Floor on Central Government Tax Revenue (PC) - Total tax revenue is defined as all fungible tax revenue collected by the General Directorate of Taxes (DGI), the General Directorate of the Treasury and Public Accounting (DGTCP) and the General Directorate of Customs (DGD), as well as earmarked tax revenue as defined in the fiscal reporting table (TOFE). - It excludes all revenues from asset sales, grants, and non-tax revenues. - The program will have a floor on central government tax revenues which will be set at 95 percent of the projected tax revenue for the rest of the current year to take into account fluctuations in revenue due to unforeseen factors beyond the government's control. - The revenue target is calculated as the cumulative flow from the beginning of the calendar year. - The margin of 95 percent does not apply to realized quarterly tax revenue. ### Inclusion and monitoring of off-budget revenue items - Starting with the 2024 budget, inclusion of previously off-budget revenue items as tax revenue in the budget, or reclassification of non-tax revenue to tax revenue, are subject to specific monitoring. - As of end-October 2024, off-budget items newly integrated into tax revenue, or reclassified as tax revenue include the listed items in Table 2 (examples and figures preserved as in the source): - 1 Peréquation produit et transport — SIR — Yes — No — 2023 — 180 — 150 — 162 - 2 Taxes d'inspection et de contrôle des établissements dangereux, insalubres ou incommodes — Ministry of Environment, Sustainable Development and Ecological Transition — Yes — Yes — 2024 — 0.06 — 1.42 — 1.44 - 3 Taxes d'environnement applicables aux navires de mer et pétroliers en escale en Côte d'Ivoire — Ministry of Environment, Sustainable Development and Ecological Transition — Yes — Yes — 2024 — 0.05 — 0.05 — 0.05 - 4 Taxe forestière, redevance au titre des travaux d’intérêt général — Ministry of Water and Forests — Yes — Yes — 2024 — 0.07 — 0.09 — 0.09 - 5 Taxe environnementale et redevance environnementale annuelle sur les établissements classés — Ministry of Environment, Sustainable Development and Ecological Transition — Yes — Yes — 2024 — 0.04 — 1.42 — 1.44 ### External payments arrears (PC) - External arrears correspond to the nonpayment of any interest or principal amounts on their due dates (taking into account any contractual grace periods). - This performance criterion applies to arrears accumulated on external debt contracted by the government and external debt guaranteed by the government for which the guarantee has been called by the creditors. - This continuous performance criterion will be monitored continuously by the authorities and any non-observance will be reported promptly to the Fund. ### Amounts payable, including domestic payment arrears (IT and PC) - “Amounts payable” (or “balances outstanding”) include domestic arrears and floating debt and represent the government’s overdue obligations. They are defined as expenditures assumed (prise en charge) by the public accountant, but yet to be paid. - For program purposes, domestic payment arrears are balances outstanding to suppliers and on domestic debt service. - Arrears to suppliers: overdue obligations of the government to nonfinancial and private companies for which the payment delay exceeds the regulatory delay of 90 days. - Arrears on the domestic debt service: debt service obligations for which the payment delay exceeds 30 days beyond the time stipulated in the contracts, including any applicable grace period. - Floating debt: balances outstanding for which the payment delay does not exceed the regulatory delay (90 days for debt to nonfinancial companies and 30 days for debt service). - Balances outstanding are broken down by payer and type, as well as by maturity and length of time overdue (< 90 days, 90–365 days, > 1 year for amounts owing to nonfinancial companies, and <30 days, 30-365 days, > 1 year for amounts owing to financial institutions). - For program purposes, the ceiling on the accumulation of new domestic payments arrears is zero. This continuous performance criterion will be monitored continuously by the authorities and any non-observance will be reported promptly to the Fund. ### Targeted social spending (IT) and Table 3 key totals (in billions of FCFA) - Targeted social spending is derived from the detailed list of targeted programs in the SIGOBE system and includes Social protection, Health (RAM-CMU, operating costs of primary health facilities, CNAM), Education, Youth employment. - Selected totals from Table 3 (Q3–Q4 2024; Q1–Q4 2025 shown quarter-by-quarter where provided): - Social Protection (quarters listed): 18.5 ; 29.4 ; 3.7 ; 9.5 ; 26.3 ; 40.9 - National social safety net support program: 4.8 ; 8.0 ; 0.8 ; 1.6 ; 10.0 ; 16.0 - Universal Health Insurance for the destitute support program: 7.9 ; 13.2 ; 2.9 ; 4.4 ; 7.9 ; 13.2 - Health (quarters listed): 211.9 ; 280.1 ; 76.7 ; 143.0 ; 250.2 ; 331.3 - Health administrators: 184.9 ; 237.4 ; 68.7 ; 128.7 ; 216.4 ; 277.8 - Free targeted care (malaria, childbirth, caesarean section, etc.) and sanitary evacuation: 6.3 ; 10.0 ; 0.9 ; 4.7 ; 9.3 ; 14.7 - Education (quarters listed): 532.1 ; 679.4 ; 162.3 ; 336.0 ; 577.8 ; 750.6 - Primary and preschool education: 490.5 ; 628.4 ; 159.2 ; 311.6 ; 529.1 ; 687.2 - Youth Employment (quarters listed): 4.3 ; 5.0 ; 1.3 ; 2.1 ; 4.1 ; 5.1 - TOTAL (quarters listed): 766.8 ; 993.9 ; 244.0 ; 490.6 ; 858.3 ; 1,127.9 ### Treasury advances (IT) - Treasury advances are defined as spending paid for by the Treasury outside normal and simplified execution and control procedures that have not been subject to prior commitment and authorization (see Decree No. 1998-716). - They exclude the “régies d’avances” (ministerial decree n° 2013-762) and extraordinary procedures for expenditures financed by external resources, wages, subsidies and transfers, and debt service. - The cumulative amount of expenditures by treasury advance will not exceed the cumulative quarterly ceilings representing 10 percent of quarterly budget allocations (excluding externally financed expenditures, wages, subsidies and transfers, and debt service). - The nominative and restrictive list of expenditures eligible as treasury advances is as defined by ministerial Decree No. 178/MEF/CAB-01/26 of March 13, 2009. ### Primary basic fiscal balance (IT) - The primary basic balance is defined as: - Fiscal revenue (tax and nontax revenue, excluding grants) – {Total expenditure + Net lending – Interest payments – Externally financed capital expenditure (on a payment order basis for all expenditure items)} ### Memorandum items — Net banking system claims and external financing definitions - Net banking system claims on the government are defined as the difference between government debts and government claims vis-à-vis the central bank and commercial banks (including the C2D deposits). The scope is that used by the BCEAO and is the same as that shown in the Net Government Position (NGP). - External financing definitions within the program: - Project grants: non-repayable money or goods intended for the financing of a specific project. - Program grants: non-repayable money or goods not intended for the financing of a specific project. - Project loans: repayable money or goods on which interest is charged, received from a donor to finance a specific project. - Program loans: repayable money or goods on which interest is charged, received from a donor and not intended for the financing a specific project. ### Program monitoring and data reporting - A quarterly assessment report on the monitoring of the quantitative performance criteria, indicative targets, and structural benchmarks will be provided by the authorities no later than 45 days following the end of each quarter. - The government will report the information specified in Table 5 no later than 45 days following the month-end or quarter-end, except where specified otherwise in Table 5. - The government will report final data provided by the BCEAO within 45 days following the month-end. The information will include a complete, itemized listing of public sector assets and liabilities vis-à-vis: - (i) the BCEAO; - (ii) the National Investment Bank (Banque Nationale d’Investissement, or BNI); - (iii) the banking system (including the BNI). - The authorities will consult with Fund staff on any proposed new external debt and report any information needed for effective monitoring of the implementation of economic policies. *Source: Excerpt from the provided IMF document.* ### 36. The pro-poor spending is defined as the list of “pro-poor expenditures” in the SIGFIP ### 36. The pro-poor spending is defined as the list of “pro-poor expenditures” in the SIGFIP system as detailed in Table 4. ### Pro-poor spending (Table 4: Pro-Poor Spending (incl. Social Spending) — Billions of CFA Francs) - Total (annual): - TOTAL: 3 404.8 (2024), 3 845.1 (2025) - Quarterly breakdown (selected sectors and items; values in Billions of CFA Francs): - Agriculture and rural development: Q4 97.5; Q1 24.3; Q2 47.2; Q3 60.2; Q4 103.4 - General administration: 15.3; 4.3; 9.6; 12.7; 16.6 - Agriculture promotion and development program: 23.5; 6.2; 12.3; 18.3; 25.5 - Training of supervisory staff: 39.7; 9.4; 17.0; 17.4; 41.0 - Water system works: 8.7; 2.2; 4.3; 5.8; 9.5 - Other investments in the rural area (FRAR, FIMR): 10.4; 2.1; 4.2; 6.3; 10.9 - Fishing and animal husbandry: 16.2; 3.2; 9.7; 14.2; 17.6 - General administration: 10.1; 2.8; 5.4; 8.1; 11.0 - Milk production and livestock farming: 2.3; 0.2; 1.5; 2.2; 2.5 - Fishing and aquaculture: 3.8; 0.3; 2.9; 3.9; 4.2 - Education: 1 646.2; 452.6; 1 042.7; 1 482.3; 1 885.2 - General administration: 99.9; 31.5; 67.3; 100.4; 124.4 - Pre-schooling and primary education: 691.9; 151.6; 369.6; 562.5; 752.0 - Literacy: 0.7; 0.2; 0.4; 0.6; 0.7 - Secondary education and vocational training: 591.6; 184.0; 393.4; 580.7; 703.8 - University and research: 262.0; 87.8; 215.3; 240.9; 304.4 - Health: 627.0; 131.8; 310.0; 494.7; 767.8 - General administration: 299.9; 66.6; 165.3; 225.8; 367.6 - Primary health system: 190.1; 21.9; 42.4; 107.1; 181.5 - Preventive healthcare (enlarged vaccination program): 2.1; 0.6; 1.1; 1.6; 2.1 - Disease and pandemic combat programs: 49.1; 22.3; 96.0; 122.9; 124.0 - Infant/mother health and nutrition: 23.5; 0.7; 0.7; 1.7; 4.1 - HIV/Aids: 6.8; 11.8; 13.4; 28.0; 29.4 - Health centers and specialized programs: 55.4; 14.8; 29.2; 43.5; 59.1 - Water and Sanitation: 203.7; 33.1; 78.0; 119.2; 213.1 - Access to drinking water and sanitation: 106.9; 21.2; 54.5; 84.2; 111.1 - Environmental protection and pollution combat: 96.7; 11.8; 23.2; 34.7; 102.0 - Energy (Access to electricity): 121.9; 42.4; 86.6; 108.3; 127.3 - Roads and Public Works: 420.3; 94.8; 168.7; 300.5; 422.0 - Rural road maintenance: 22.0; 1.4; 2.8; 4.2; 8.7 - Construction of public works: 136.9; 12.6; 46.5; 90.0; 143.6 - Other road projects: 261.4; 81.2; 120.2; 209.1; 269.8 - Social spending: 88.4; 20.7; 40.8; 63.0; 91.8 - General administration: 14.7; 5.5; 10.8; 16.2; 17.8 - Women's vocational training: 4.0; 1.0; 1.9; 2.8; 4.4 - Orphanages, day nurseries, and social centers: 27.2; 7.7; 15.1; 22.4; 28.5 - Training of support staff: 1.6; 0.4; 0.9; 1.3; 1.5 - Decentralization (excl. education, health and agriculture): 134.3; 29.2; 70.1; 122.9; 165.3 - Reconstruction: 5.5; 2.3; 4.6; 5.5; 6.0 - Reconstruction and rehabilitation: 1.4; 0.6; 1.2; 1.4; 1.5 - Social housing: 4.1; 1.7; 3.5; 4.0; 4.4 - Other poverty-fighting spending: 43.9; 7.1; 11.9; 16.7; 45.6 - Promotion and insertion of youth: 40.9; 5.8; 9.2; 13.8; 42.4 - Development of tourism and craftmanship: 3.0; 1.4; 2.7; 2.9; 3.2 - Source: Ivorian authorities. ### Document transmittal for program monitoring (Table 5: Document Transmittal for Program Monitoring) - Reporting requirements (selected items): - Real sector: - Cyclical indicators: Monthly — End of month + 45 days - Provisional national accounts: Annually — End of year + 9 months - Final national accounts: Variable — 60 days after revision - Disaggregated consumer price indices: Monthly — End of month + 45 days - Energy sector: - Crude oil: offtake report: Quarterly — End of quarter + 45 days - Oil product price structure: Monthly — End of month + 45 days - Public finances (selected): - Fiscal reporting table (TOFE): Monthly — End of month + 45 days - Budget execution report: Quarterly — End of quarter + 45 days - Pro-poor expenditures: Monthly — End of month + 45 days - Central government domestic arrears: Monthly — End of month + 45 days - Consolidated Treasury balances outstanding: Monthly — End of month + 45 days - Annual cash flow plan: Annually — End of year + 45 days - Domestic debt: - Detailed domestic debt statement: Monthly — End of month + 45 days - Detailed projected domestic debt service: Quarterly — End of quarter + 45 days - Statement of issuances and redemptions of securities: Monthly — End of month + 45 days - External debt: - Detailed external debt statement: Monthly — End of month + 45 days - Projected external debt service: Quarterly — End of quarter + 45 days - Public companies: - Debt statement of public companies: Quarterly — End of quarter + 90 days - List of public companies: Quarterly — End of quarter + 45 days - Monetary and financial sectors: - Banking survey: Monthly — End of month + 45 days (provisional); end of month + 60 days (final) - Summary BCEAO position: Monthly — End of month + 45 days (provisional); end of month + 60 days (final) - Financial soundness indicators: Quarterly — End of month + 45 days ### Selected economic indicators (Table 6: Selected Economic Indicators) - National income (annual percentage changes): - GDP at constant prices: 7.1 (2021); 6.2 (2022); 6.2 (2023); 6.1 (2024 Prel.); 6.3 (2025); 6.3 (2026) - Consumer price index (annual average): 4.2; 5.2; 4.4; 4.0; 3.0; 2.2 - External sector (on the basis of CFA francs): - Exports of goods, f.o.b., at current prices: 18.2; 19.5; 4.3; 21.8; 17.5; 2.1 - Imports of goods, f.o.b., at current prices: 24.3; 39.4; -1.0; 3.0; 3.8; 5.8 - Export volume: 8.3; 4.5; 4.7; 1.9; 6.9; 9.8 - Import volume: 12.4; 30.3; 6.7; 4.3; 6.3; 5.8 - Central government operations (percent of GDP): - Total revenue and grants: 15.6; 15.3; 16.2; 16.8; 17.8; 18.1 - Total revenue: 15.1; 14.7; 15.6; 16.3; 17.3; 17.8 - Tax revenue: 13.0; 12.8; 13.6; 14.4; 15.4; 16.0 - Total expenditure: 20.5; 22.1; 21.5; 20.8; 20.8; 21.2 - Current expenditure: 14.7; 14.9; 14.7; 13.7; 14.1; 13.4 - Capital expenditure: 5.8; 7.2; 6.8; 7.2; 6.7; 7.7 - Basic primary balance: -1.1; -1.8; -0.1; -0.2; 1.5; 1.6 - Overall balance, incl. grants, payment order basis: -4.9; -6.8; -5.2; -4.0; -3.0; -3.0 - External sector balances (percent of GDP): - Current account balance: -3.9; -7.7; -7.9; -5.1; -1.7; -2.4 - Non-interest current account balance: -2.8; -6.5; -6.4; -3.7; -0.3; -1.0 - Memorandum item: - Nominal GDP (CFAF billions): 40,367; 43,771; 47,843; 52,356; 57,068; 61,876 - Notes: Sources: Ivorian authorities, and IMF staff estimates and projections. (Percent of GDP unless otherwise indicated) ### Debt sustainability analysis — key points and assumptions - Overall risk assessments: - Risk of external debt distress: Moderate - Overall risk of debt distress: Moderate - Granularity in the risk rating: Limited space to absorb shocks - Application of judgement: No - Public debt coverage and classification: - Public debt covers central government debt and guarantees provided by the central government, including guarantees to SOE debt. - The DSA classifies external and domestic debt based on the currency criterion due to data constraints. - Local administrations were previously not authorized to borrow; the law on national debt policy passed in June 2024 grants capacity to borrow to local administrations, with an implementing decree being validated. - At end-2023, both SOE guaranteed and non-guaranteed commercial debt amounted to 1 percent of GDP. - Treatment of SOE debt and contingent liabilities: - All guaranteed SOE debt and on-lent debt is included in the debt stock in the baseline. - Non-guaranteed SOE debt is captured as a contingent liability shock set at 1 percent of GDP. - Total contingent liabilities for the CL test are estimated at 8.3 percent of GDP. - Other elements of the general government not captured in 1.0 percent of GDP: 0 - SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government): 1/1.0 percent of GDP - PPP: 35.0 percent of PPP stock (resulting contribution shown in table) - Financial market shock: 5 percent of GDP - Total (2+3+4+5) (in percent of GDP): 8.3 - Recent debt dynamics and financing: - Public debt stood at 59.1 percent of GDP at end-2023, compared with 36.8 percent in 2018. - External debt stood at 36.9 percent of GDP at end-2023, compared to 24.5 percent in 2018 — representing 62.4 percent of total debt at end-2023 (below the 2019 peak of 68.5 percent). - The eurobond issuance in January 2024 amounted to US$2.6 billion. - Composition notes: - Most domestic debt is CFAF-denominated securities with maturities between 3 months and 15 years. - BCEAO policy interest rate increased to 3.5 percent in December 2023. - Within external debt (excluding guarantees) commercial creditors hold about half of the external debt stock; close to 60 percent of commercial debt is in the form of eurobonds. - Multilateral creditors represented 32 percent of external debt in 2023; bilateral creditors about 17 percent; guaranteed debt 2.8 percent. - Projections and vulnerabilities: - Côte d’Ivoire’s overall and external public debt remain at moderate risk of debt distress and show significant improvements compared to the DSA prior to the debt management operation (DMO) completed in S1 2024. - Owing to the DMO, the external debt service-to-revenue indicator breaches the threshold in 2024 but remains below the threshold during the remainder of the projection period in the baseline. - All indicators are susceptible to breaches under stress scenarios, with the most extreme involving a shock to exports. - The PV of overall debt-to-GDP ratio is below its threshold in the baseline but exceeds it in most stress scenarios; the natural disaster shock is the most extreme shock to public debt in a customized stress test. - The space to absorb shocks remains limited. - Recent macro developments that affect projections: - Staff projects 2024 real GDP growth at 6.1 percent (slightly lower than 6.2 percent in 2023). - Cocoa production projected to increase by 12.5 percent as El Niño wanes. - Headline annual average CPI inflation fell from 5.2 percent (y/y) in 2022 to 4.4 percent (y/y) in 2023. *Source: Ivorian authorities; IMF staff estimates and projections.* ### 8. The assumptions in the baseline scenario are consistent with the macroeconomic ### 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 8. The assumptions in the baseline scenario are consistent with the macroeconomic ### Baseline framework and program performance - Assumptions are consistent with the macroeconomic framework of the third review of the EFF/ECF arrangements and second review of the RSF. - Performance under the third review of the EFF/ECF arrangements and second review of the RSF is strong with: - all quantitative performance criteria as of June 2024 met; - all structural benchmarks (SB) as of September 2024 met; - reform measures (RM) under the RSF as of October 2024 met. - Authorities are making progress towards meeting the rest of the year SBs and RMs and beginning of 2025. - Baseline macro assumptions reflect climate change risks and mitigation, adaptation, and transition measures. ### Growth projections - GDP growth projections: - range between 6 and 6.5 percent through the medium term (similar to previous DSA). - Real GDP growth: 6.1 percent in 2024. - Real GDP growth: around 6.3 percent in 2025-26. - Growth expected to reach 7.5 percent in 2027 due to strong hydrocarbon production in phase 3 of the Baleine oilfield. - Growth then expected to gradually converge to potential of around 6 percent over the medium-term. - Growth drivers: - strong private consumption and investment in 2024 underpinned by capital deepening and gradually improving external conditions; - industry and services supported as reforms improve competition in digital, telecom, financial and transport sectors and by investments in infrastructure and human capital; - support in part by the World Bank Development Policy Financing series. ### Inflation and monetary environment - Annual average inflation (CPI) projections: - ease to 4 percent in 2024 (downward trend of global food and commodity prices and BCEAO monetary tightening); - reach BCEAO’s 1 to 3 percent target range by 2025; - remain low at around 2 percent in the medium term, benefiting from the exchange rate peg to the euro. ### Fiscal outlook and consolidation - Recent fiscal balances: - Primary deficit: 2.7 percent of GDP in 2023 (down from 4.6 percent of GDP in 2022). - Overall fiscal deficit: 5.2 percent of GDP in 2023 (down from 6.8 percent of GDP in 2022). - Tax revenue: 13.6 percent of GDP in 2023 (from 12.8 percent in 2022). - Targets and commitments: - Authorities committed to fiscal consolidation to the regional target of 3 percent of GDP for the overall fiscal deficit in 2025 through strong consolidation efforts, especially by raising domestic revenue, while preserving priority spending. - Revenue coverage: same as the three last DSAs consistent with GFSM 2014 and WAEMU directives; authorities are including services revenues previously accounted off budget into the revenue perimeter. ### Revenue mobilization and tax projections - Tax revenue path: - 12.8 percent of GDP in 2022; - expected to increase to 16 percent of GDP in 2026; - expected to reach close to 19 percent by the end of the projection period. - Measures to achieve higher revenue: strengthened digitalization and tax administration, tax policy changes, implementation of the medium-term revenue mobilization strategy (MTRS) adopted in May 2024, and Fund/World Bank/other donors technical assistance. - Specific MTRS actions: eliminating VAT tax exemptions, accelerating removal of business tax exemptions, streamlining personal income tax regime, improving property regime, fully rolling out a new IT system, and pursuing public financial management reforms. - A quantitative performance criterion monitors the tax revenue level through a floor. ### External sector, reserves, and current account - Current account: - estimated broadly stable at 7.9 percent of GDP deficit in 2023 (after 7.7 percent of GDP in 2022); - expected to narrow to about 2.6 percent of GDP by 2028. - External flows and drivers: - exports values boosted by sharply higher cocoa prices lifting the merchandise trade surplus; - export volumes expected to benefit from increased hydrocarbon output and implementation of NDP and Côte d’Ivoire 2030 policies, especially private sector development and export diversification. - Official reserves: remained under pressure in 2023 with Côte d’Ivoire contributing to the decline in FX reserves at the regional level; expected to recover in line with the sharp rebound in the current account deficit and improved access to external financing. ### Risks and upside scenarios - Downside risks: - regional security challenges generating spending pressures and weighing on confidence; - renewed oil price spikes putting pressure on tax revenue from petroleum products; - adverse weather conditions and crop disease delaying cocoa recovery; - weaker-than-anticipated recovery in pooled regional FX reserves; - FATF grey listing impacts; - election-related uncertainty and social tensions in run up to October 2025 presidential elections. - Upside possibilities: - sustained high cocoa prices boosting disposable income and cocoa-related export and fiscal revenue; - more favorable financing conditions (recent credit ratings upgrade and Eurobond issuance); - higher-than-anticipated oil and gas extraction (new substantial discovery in the Calao field); - discovery of new potentially substantial gold deposits. ### Debt management strategy and financing composition - Strategy aims to meet gross financing needs while ensuring debt sustainability using a mix of external and domestic financing instruments. - Authorities intend to rely more on domestic financing over time (2023-2026 medium-term debt strategy). - Financing composition and targets: - authorities borrowed externally around 70 percent of total financing in 2023; - aim to reduce external borrowing to 36 percent by 2026. - Multilateral and bilateral financing projected to decline from 4.6 percent of GDP in 2023 to 1.5 percent in 2044. - Short-term financing: expected reliance on both concessional and non-concessional borrowing. - Eurobond debt service: represents about 30 percent of external debt service over the next three years. - Active debt portfolio management: includes operations such as the debt for development swap being discussed with the World Bank to improve debt sustainability. ### Debt-for-Development (D4D) swap (Box 1) - Planned use of World Bank Group Policy-Based Guarantee (PBG) to implement a Debt-for-Development swap—the first application under the joint WB-IMF framework for debt for development swaps. - D4D design: - PBG expected to mobilize commercial financing at 60 percent guarantee coverage; - enable government to conduct a DMO to buy back around EUR 400 million of expensive commercial debt; - government intends to invest generated savings in debt service in scaling up education sector development outcomes; - second component: Program for Results (PforR) in the education sector to monitor achievement of education outcomes. - Expected outcomes and amounts: - DMO targets external commercial loans maturing between 2029 and 2033 with variable interest rates currently higher than 8 percent p.a.; - replacing these loans with a PBG-backed loan expected to generate savings in NPV terms of about EUR 60 million; - free up cash-flow in the short term of up to EUR 300 million in 2025-2028 given longer average maturity (8.5 vs. 2.3 years). - PBG envelope and planned operations: - DMO will utilize only a portion of a EUR 500 million PBG envelope approved by the World Bank, deployed over two sequential transactions; - a Sustainability Linked Loan (SLL) of about EUR 400 million is planned for CY2025 subject to market conditions and issuance of a second-party opinion. - Note: The described operation is not part of the baseline as it has not been executed yet. ### Debt sustainability assessment (DSA), scenario tests, and classification - Country classification: assessed to have medium debt-carrying capacity with a composite indicator of 2.94 (above lower cut-off 2.69, below strong capacity cut-off 3.05). - DSA outcome: country remains at moderate risk of debt distress (similar to June 2024 DSA). - Debt service-to-revenue ratio: - remains below the 18 percent threshold during projection period except for one breach at 32.8 percent in 2024 (mainly due to early repayments and debt service associated with the DMO). - projected to steadily decline well below threshold under Fund-supported program before returning closer to threshold around 2030 and then decrease steadily in the long run. - Debt service-to-export ratio: - projected breach to 20.5 percent in 2024 (threshold 15 percent) due to the DMO. - Stock-flow and residuals: - projected medium-term debt-creating flows are below those observed in past five years; a 2.3 percent of GDP residual calculated for 2023 mostly reflects different recording of project loan disbursements and non-integration in fiscal accounts of flows associated with new debt contracted by the government and on-lent to SOEs. - Stress tests applied: - tailored test for international market financing: assumes temporary increase in cost of new commercial external borrowing by 400 basis points, nominal depreciation of 15 percent of the CFAF vis-à-vis the US$, and shortening of maturities and grace periods. - standard stress tests on real GDP growth, primary balance, exports, current transfers, FX depreciation (nominal depreciation of 30 percent of the CFAF vis-à-vis the US$ in the first year), and a commodity price shock (one standard deviation decline in commodity prices). - Given reliance on global capital markets, tailored market financing test is applied to reflect issuance history (Eurobonds of about US$1.2 billion and US$1 billion in 2020 and early 2021; US$2.6 billion of Eurobonds in January 2024). *Source: IMF staff and Ivorian authorities as presented in the referenced chapter.* ### 22. All other PPG debt indicators are below their corresponding thresholds for the ### 22. All other PPG debt indicators are below their corresponding thresholds for the ### External debt indicators and baseline projections - PV of external debt-to-GDP: - Expected to decrease from around 33 percent in 2024 to about 21 percent in 2034. - Relevant threshold: 40. - PV of external debt-to-exports: - Peaks at around 127 percent at the beginning of the projection period before decreasing. - External debt service-to-exports: - Expected to drop to around 11 percent in 2025 and stay below the 15 percent threshold. - External debt service-to-revenue: - After the 2024 spike, expected to remain below the threshold throughout the following years. - Policy implication highlighted: - Criticality of improving domestic revenue mobilization to provide sustainable funding, buffers on debt service, and careful debt-portfolio management including debt conditionality and investment prioritization. ### Shock analyses: exports and stress tests - Exports shock: - Would cause the debt service-to-export ratio to breach the threshold from 2026 onward. - Most shocks would cause the debt-service-to-revenue indicator to breach the threshold starting in 2024. - Confirms dependence on exports concentrated in a few commodities; underscores importance of accelerating diversification policies. - Standard exports stress test (public debt focus): - PV of public debt-to-GDP would breach its threshold of 55 percent starting in 2025 and continue increasing until 2026. - Leads to explosive patterns in PV of public debt-to-GDP and PV of debt-to-revenue ratios if exports decrease further. ### Public debt sustainability (baseline and ratios) - PV of public debt-to-GDP: - Below threshold of 55 percent under baseline. - Expected to slightly decline to around 40 percent by 2034. - PV of debt-to-revenue and grants: - Expected to decline from around 323 percent in 2024 to 210 percent in 2034. - Debt service-to-revenue and grants: - Projected to soar to 61 percent in 2024 (mostly as a result of the DMO) and decline back to around 17 percent at the end of the projection period. - Footnote: The ratio would reach 19.3 percent without the DMO operation due to higher interest rates and shorter maturities contracted during the recent crisis. - Footnote: It would stay at 12.3 percent without the DMO. - Role of DMO: - By reducing debt service falling due, especially during the first years of projections, the DMO enhances debt sustainability and mitigates liquidity vulnerabilities. ### Domestic debt dynamics and consolidation - Recent trend: - Domestic debt increased over the past five years reflecting higher fiscal deficits from recent crisis episodes. - Net issuance increased in 2020-2021 but declined since as authorities began consolidation efforts and turned to more external financing due to tightening regional market conditions in 2023. - Market episode 2023: - Auctions in the regional market saw significantly reduced demand, much higher yields, and shorter maturities. - Authorities contracted external commercial debt on cheaper terms than the regional market to roll over maturing debt. - Projections and policy anchors: - Domestic debt-to-GDP stabilizes and should moderate further over the medium term as consolidation progresses. - Domestic debt service-to-revenue ratio expected to moderate steadily as domestic revenues rise, supported by the ambitious MTRS adopted in 2024 to support increasing fiscal revenue towards the WAEMU target of 20 percent of GDP. - Recommendation: - Pursuing consolidation is essential to moderate domestic debt level. ### Climate change risks and fiscal impacts - Exposure: - Côte d’Ivoire is highly exposed to rising temperatures, sea levels, and changing rain patterns; by 2050 could face hotter average temperatures, greater rainfall variability, higher sea levels, flooding, and coastal erosion. - Economic vulnerabilities: - Agriculture employs about half of the workforce, contributes about 17 percent of GDP and 10 percent of tax revenues; concentration of activity in coastal areas increases vulnerability. - Climate change affects debt sustainability via negative impacts on: - (i) output due to productivity decreases and loss of suitable land; - (ii) fiscal balance owing to weaker revenue mobilization and increased spending for disasters and resilient infrastructure; - (iii) balance of payments. - NDC and financing needs: - NDC implementation cost estimated at US$22 billion (US$12 billion in adaptation and US$10 billion in mitigation). - Private financing expected to play a major role (assumed to cover 74 percent of the National Development Plan), alongside international sources such as the Green Climate Fund and the Adaptation Fund. - Authorities held a climate finance roundtable on July 5, 2024; over 40 multilateral organizations and private sector financial entities attended; specific commitments expected by November 2024. - Financing strategy and recommendations: - Need to develop a full green finance strategy; consider all sources including international climate funds to unlock private financing and different financing types. - Use of blended financing (guarantees and ESG bonds) has already occurred. - A financing roundtable should take place in mid-year to catalyze donors and private sector financing efforts. ### Natural disaster (flooding) tailored stress test - Flooding exposure: - Fifty-six percent of population live in an urban coastal area. - World Bank estimated annual expected cost of fluvial and pluvial floods at about 3 percent of GDP (does not account for seawater due to lack of data). - Natural disaster stress test calibration: - Assumes one-off 9 percentage points decline in real GDP growth and an associated export growth shock of 3.5 percentage points. - Impact projections: - Debt service-to-revenue ratio would surge to 67 percent in 2026. - PV of debt-to-GDP ratio would spike to 61 percent in 2025. - Implication: - Natural disaster shock is the most extreme shock to public debt; highlights urgent need for resilient infrastructure investments and greater revenue mobilization to attenuate effects. ### Risk rating, vulnerabilities, and policy priorities - Overall risk assessment: - Côte d’Ivoire remains at moderate risk of external debt distress with limited capacity to absorb shocks. - Key observations: - Except for a temporary breach in 2024 due to the DMO, the debt service-to-revenue ratio remains below but close to its threshold under the baseline. - Debt service-to-export ratio breaches the 15 percent threshold only once due to the DMO in early 2024; other debt indicators stay below thresholds. - Standard stress tests show PV of external debt-to-exports, external debt service-to-export, and external debt service-to-revenue would cross thresholds in the most extreme shock scenarios. - The space to absorb shocks is limited; external debt-service-to-revenue ratio breaches and then remains below but close to the threshold during the projection period. - Policy priorities and program role: - Intensify revenue mobilization and promote private-sector-led economic transformation, including diversifying the export base. - Adopt a prudent external borrowing strategy balancing costs and risks of new loans to preserve borrowing space and medium-term debt sustainability. - EFF/ECF and RSF arrangements, along with the World Bank DPO, should catalyze other donors’ financing at concessional terms. - Monitor debt indicators, use prudent GDP growth assumptions, create fiscal space, implement judicious policies to preserve macroeconomic stability, and exercise full oversight of SOE debt contracting. - Authorities committed to fully integrating SOE debt in debt sustainability assessment and to balancing domestic and external debt through active debt management. - DSA conclusion: - Overall risk of debt distress remains moderate; stress tests highlight high vulnerabilities of external and total debt to shocks. - PV of public debt-to-GDP breaches its threshold of 55 percent starting in 2025 under the most extreme exports shock. - All four external debt indicators would breach their thresholds under the most extreme shocks (exports). - Granularity assessment: - Indicates limited space to absorb shocks, especially considering debt service ratios to exports and revenue; emphasizes liquidity vulnerability and the importance of strengthening DRM and diversifying exports. *International Monetary Fund — Côte d’Ivoire Debt Sustainability Analysis (excerpts)* ### 37. The authorities agreed that Côte d’Ivoire remains at moderate risk of debt distress. ### 37. The authorities agreed that Côte d’Ivoire remains at moderate risk of debt distress. ### Authorities' assessment and commitment - The authorities agree that Côte d’Ivoire remains at moderate risk of debt distress. - They are strongly committed to keeping the country’s debt at moderate risk. - The authorities continue to show strong commitment to active debt management, notably with the January Eurobond issuance. - The authorities are closely monitoring their debt portfolio, including: - the composition between external and domestic borrowing, - the concessionality of loans, - investment prioritization, and - the pace of disbursement. ### Temporary breaches and debt sustainability outlook - The external debt service to revenue ratio and the debt service to export ratio temporarily breach their respective thresholds in 2024 before remaining below them for the rest of the projection period. - The breaches are considered to be one-off and do not call into question the medium-term debt sustainability trajectory. ### Debt management actions and effects - The January Eurobond issuance and the Q1 2024 liabilities management exercise: - were intended to strengthen debt sustainability, - improved liquidity indicators, and - reduced debt vulnerabilities. - All additional financing needs generated by the shocks under the stress tests are assumed to be covered by PPG external MLT debt in the external DSA. - Default terms of marginal debt are based on baseline 10-year projections. ### Credit rating developments and investor confidence - Moody’s upgraded Côte d’Ivoire in March 2024 from "Ba3 with positive outlook" to "Ba2 with stable outlook". - S&P upgraded Côte d’Ivoire in October 2024 from "BB- with positive outlook" to "BB+ with stable outlook". - These rating upgrades attest to investors' growing confidence in the country's macroeconomic management and its ability to maintain a sustainable development path. ### Selected quantitative debt indicators (as presented in the source) - PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (selected series): 8.9; 9.1; 11.4; 20.5; 11.1; 11.7; 10.5; 11.4; 12.6; 8.5; 7.4. - PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (selected series): 13.1; 15.1; 17.1; 32.8; 17.9; 17.3; 15.5; 16.2; 17.4; 11.0; 8.1. - External debt (nominal) (selected years): 32.1; 35.8; 36.9; 36.9; 37.1; 36.7; 34.8; 33.2; 31.5; 24.7; 18.0; 25.4; 31.3. - Public sector debt (selected years): 51.8; 57.9; 59.1; 58.1; 56.8; 55.6; 53.4; 51.7; 50.2; 43.8; 35.4; 41.4; 50.6. - Gross external financing need (Million of U.S. dollars) (selected series): 4,604.8; 6,670.4; 8,870.0; 11,337.0; 6,886.1; 7,624.4; 6,849.3; 8,612.9; 9,641.5; 13,638.4; 27,146.5. - Real GDP growth (in percent) (selected series): 7.1; 6.2; 6.2; 6.1; 6.3; 6.3; 7.5; 7.0; 6.5; 5.8; 5.6; 4.6; 6.3. - Government revenues (excluding grants, in percent of GDP) (selected entries): 15.1; 14.7; 15.6; 16.4; 17.4; 17.9; 18.3; 18.5; 18.8; 18.8; 20.6; 14.1; 18.2. ### Stress tests, scenarios, and monitoring - Stress tests presented include commodity price shocks, natural disaster, market financing, historical scenarios, and tailored stress scenarios. - The most extreme stress test is defined as the test that yields the highest ratio in or before 2034; one-off breaches are separately identified and treated as mechanical signals where applicable. - Borrowing assumptions on additional financing needs resulting from the stress tests assume coverage by external PPG MLT debt in the external DSA and allow for domestic financing coverage in the public DSA. - The public DSA reports shares of marginal debt across: External PPG medium and long-term; Domestic medium and long-term; Domestic short-term; Domestic MLT debt. *Source: 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 37. The authorities agreed that Côte d’Ivoire remains at moderate risk of debt distress.* ### 4.0 percent in 2024 and to remain within the Central Bank’s target range going forward. The fiscal deficit ### 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 4.0 percent in 2024 and to remain within the Central Bank’s target range going forward. The fiscal deficit ### Economic outlook and risks - The fiscal deficit is anticipated to narrow to 4.0 percent of GDP in 2024, down from 5.2 percent in 2023. - The current account deficit is expected to improve to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2024 from 8.1 percent in 2023, driven by strong exports, particularly mining, cocoa and oil and gas. - Risks to the outlook are balanced: - Downside risks: impact of climate change, an escalation of geopolitical tensions, and a deterioration of the security situation in neighboring countries. - Upside risks: larger than anticipated export proceeds from mining, and the recently developed oil and gas fields. ### Program implementation - Authorities’ policies aim to consolidate macroeconomic stability, rebuild buffers, strengthen resilience to climate change, and achieve structural transformation goals as laid out in the National Development Plan 2021-2025 and the Vision 2030. - All the quantitative performance criteria, indicative targets, and structural benchmarks set for the third reviews of the ECF and EFF arrangements have been met. - All the RSF reform measures planned for September 2024 have been implemented. - A National Commission on Climate Change was established under the Office of the Prime Minister and delivered its first climate change report. - A Climate Change Law has been adopted by the Government creating a National Climate Agency. - Decrees have been adopted to operationalize the Green Finance Platform and the Carbon Market Bureau. - With IMF participation, authorities organized a roundtable on climate finance aimed at mobilizing financing for adaptation and mitigation reforms. ### Fiscal policy - Fiscal policy geared toward ensuring fiscal and debt sustainability through higher revenue mobilization, containing spending, and prudently managing debt. - Policies anchored by WAEMU regional convergence criterion of a fiscal deficit target of 3 per cent of GDP. - The fiscal deficit grew to 6.8 percent of GDP in 2020 due to recent external shocks such as the pandemic and global economic uncertainties. - Authorities’ actions brought the deficit to 4 percent of GDP in 2024; on track to reach the 3 percent convergence target in 2025. - Revenue mobilization: - Implement the Medium-Term Revenue Strategy (MTRS) to increase tax revenue by 0.5 percent of GDP per year. - Implement tax reforms to streamline tax processes and broaden the tax base, including reducing tax exemptions and curbing tax evasion. - Leverage digitalization, modernize customs and tax administrations, and improve enforcement mechanisms. - Spending priorities: - Continue prioritizing investments in transport, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure. - Continue investing in education and healthcare to build a skilled and healthy workforce. - Continue efforts to significantly raise living standards in the medium term through the Government’s Social Program (PSGouv) and Government’s Youth Program (PJGouv). - Public Financial Management (PFM): - Adopt e-procurement systems to reduce corruption and ensure value for money. - Implement strict expenditure controls to prevent budget overruns and align spending with fiscal targets. - Debt sustainability: - Maintain debt at sustainable levels and Côte d’Ivoire’s ranking of moderate risk of debt distress. - Pursue prudent debt policies, recourse to concessional financing to the extent possible, careful monitoring of debt indicators, and sound debt management practices. - Credit rating and outlook: - Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s recently upgraded Côte d’Ivoire’s sovereign debt rating to one of the best ratings in the region, with a stable outlook. ### Monetary and financial sector policies - Monetary policy is conducted regionally by the BCEAO, tasked to maintain price stability and to conduct foreign exchange and reserves policies on behalf of WAEMU member countries. - BCEAO made successive policy rate increases, helping to firmly anchor inflation within the 3 percent target range. - Region’s reserves coverage improved, supported by Côte d’Ivoire’s IMF-supported programs and Eurobond issuance. - Banking sector measures: - Banks’ regulatory capital requirements have been doubled. - Remaining publicly held banks have been strengthened. - Financial inclusion: - Progress made via the Financial Services Interoperability Platform and the implementation of the financial inclusion strategy. ### Structural reforms and private sector development - 2024 Article IV consultation discussed structural reforms key to transforming the Ivorian economy. - Authorities committed to continue advancing governance reforms, promoting gender inclusion and equality, and climate policies to strengthen resilience and leverage renewables. - A new three-year reform agenda was adopted to support businesses including SMEs. ### State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) governance - Authorities maintained actions to improve financial health and governance of SOEs. - Plan to implement recently adopted legal framework for SOE management reflecting IMF and World Bank best practices: - Enhanced oversight and accountability framework for Boards of Directors of SOEs. - Managerial independence. - Financial transparency with mandatory periodic external audits. - Close monitoring of SOEs’ financial performance. ### Climate policies and RSF implementation - World Bank diagnostic report notes Côte d’Ivoire is among the most vulnerable countries to climate change despite limited contribution to global warming. - Authorities active in international initiatives including the Paris Climate Agreement, Abidjan Legacy Initiative, and COP29. - RSF implementation: - Six-axis RSF built around a strategy informed by World Bank and IMF technical assistance diagnostic reports. - All reform measures planned for the second RSF review were implemented, including creation of the National Commission to Combat Climate Change and operationalization of the Green Finance Platform. - Authorities organized a roundtable on climate finance in Abidjan in July 2024 with development partners and the private sector. - Cost estimates and financing needs: - The cost of adaptation and mitigation efforts was estimated at 22 billion US dollars by 2030. - Authorities plan to cover part of the amount and seek to mobilize the remaining 16 billion US dollars. - Partners include the African Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the European Union, Germany/KfW Development Bank, and Agence Française de Développement. ### Addressing informality and gender policies - Authorities welcome 2024 Article IV discussions on informality covering gender policies, financial inclusion, SME promotion, and business competitiveness constraints. - Strategies to facilitate transition from informal to formal activities: - Implement Integrated National Strategy for Transition to the Formal Economy (SNIT-EF). - Regulatory reforms, incentives for formalization, and support for SMEs. - Simplify regulations, provide tax incentives, capacity building, support to SMEs, facilitate access to finance, and broaden social protection to include informal workers. - Gender policies: - Implement National Policy on Equality, Equity, and Gender. - Programs in PSGouv and PJGouv aim to: - i) improve women’s access to financial services and credit; - ii) support women entrepreneurs and promote female participation in the workforce; - iii) ensure equal access to education and provide vocational training. ### Conclusion and requests to Executive Directors - Authorities preserved a strong track record of program performance over past decades. - Period under review marked by implementation of all performance criteria and structural reforms under EFF/ECF arrangements and all reform measures under the RSF. - Authorities are determined to maintain macroeconomic stability and the reform momentum for economic transformation. - Request: appreciation for Executive Directors’ favorable conclusion of the third reviews of the arrangements under the Extended Fund Facility and the Extended Credit Facility, and of the second review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility arrangement. *Source: 1civea2025001-print-pdf - 4.0 percent in 2024 and to remain within the Central Bank’s target range going forward. The fiscal deficit* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1civea2025001-print-pdf.pdf_