## 1nerea2025003 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [1nerea2025003](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1nerea2025003.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1nerea2025003.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1nerea2025003.pdf.json) --- ### Context - Niger faces fragility, conflict, and vulnerability to climate shocks. - Withdrawal of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) countries from ECOWAS became effective on January 29, 2025; ECOWAS maintained membership privileges for Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger until modalities of future engagement are determined. - National Assemblies concluded in March 2025 proposed a five-year transition to democratic governance and proposed to allow President Tiiani to stand as a candidate in forthcoming elections. - AES countries jointly decided on March 28, 2025 to impose a 0.5 percent tariff on imports from outside the bloc to finance AES institutions. - Authorities will adopt the Resilience Program for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (PRSP) built on four pillars: (i) strengthening security and social cohesion; (ii) promoting good governance; (iii) developing production structures for economic sovereignty; and (iv) accelerating social reforms. ### Recent economic developments and outlook - Growth and sectoral drivers: - Growth in 2024: 10.3 percent, driven by the start of crude oil exports and an exceptional agricultural harvest. - Primary sector growth in 2024: 15.2 percent. - Tertiary sector growth in 2024: 2.5 percent. - A total of 10.1 million barrels of crude oil were exported through end-2024. - External sector and inflation: - Current account deficit narrowed to 6 percent of GDP in 2024, down from 13.9 percent in 2023. - Average inflation in 2024: 9.1 percent. - Inflation expected to recede to 4.2 percent in 2025. - Outlook and medium term: - GDP growth expected at 6.6 percent in 2025. - Medium-term growth should average about 6.3 percent over 2026–2030. - Output gap projected to close by 2028. - Current account deficit projection over 2026–2030: average 4.0 percent of GDP. - Selected macro projections (selected values from Text Table 3): - GDP at constant prices (percent change): 2024: 10.3; 2025: 6.6; 2026: 6.7; 2027: 6.5; 2028: 6.0; 2029: 6.0; 2030: 6.0 - Consumer price index, average (percent change): 2024: 9.1; 2025: 4.2; 2026: 3.2; 2027: 2.0; 2028: 2.0; 2029: 2.0; 2030: 2.0 - Total revenue (percent of GDP): 2024: 7.7; 2025: 9.4; 2026: 9.9; 2027: 10.3; 2028: 10.8; 2029: 11.0; 2030: 11.2 - Overall fiscal balance (commitment basis, incl. grants) (percent of GDP): 2024: -4.3; 2025: -3.0; 2026: -3.0; 2027: -3.0; 2028: -3.0; 2029: -3.0; 2030: -3.0 - Total public and publicly-guaranteed debt (percent of GDP): 2024: 48.4; 2025: 44.0; 2026: 43.0; 2027: 42.6; 2028: 42.6; 2029: 42.6; 2030: 42.5 ### Fiscal outturn, financing needs, and consolidation - 2024 fiscal outturn: - Overall fiscal deficit in 2024: 4.3 percent of GDP (program target: 4.1 percent). - Non-tax revenues included one-off CoLDEFF proceeds of CFAF 25 billion (0.2 percent of GDP). - Basic budget balance (excluding grants) at end-December 2024: -3.4 percent of GDP (1.1 percent of GDP below the floor target). - Revenue outturns: CFAF 929.2 billion (program target CFAF 989.5 billion; gap CFAF 60.3 billion). - Total expenditures: CFAF 1,616.5 billion (projected CFAF 1,784 billion). - Government financing needs (Text Table 5, 2025): - Gross Financing Needs: 1756 Billion CFAF; 13.2% GDP - Central Government fiscal deficit (overall cash deficit + grants, excluding interest arrears): 400 Billion CFAF; 3.0% GDP - Amortization: 1209 Billion CFAF; 9.1% GDP - Domestic amortization: 1030 Billion CFAF; 7.7% GDP - External amortization: 179 Billion CFAF; 1.3% GDP - Arrears repayment (interest + principal): 147 Billion CFAF; 1.1% GDP - Domestic arrears repayment: 100 Billion CFAF; 0.7% GDP - External arrears repayment: 48 Billion CFAF; 0.4% GDP - Sources of consolidation (selected entries from Text Table 4): - Revenue, Natural Resources Sector: Aggregate ∆ 2023-25: 1.9 - Domestic expenditure and net lending: Aggregate ∆ 2023-25: -1.7 - Fiscal balance / total consolidation: Aggregate ∆ 2023-25: 2.4 - Memo: Compound average GDP growth rate: 18.1% (baseline), 10.6% (∆ 2023-24), 11.4% (∆ 2024-25) - Fiscal adjustor for 2025: - Basic budget balance indicative targets could be relaxed by 0.5 percent of GDP (expressed in CFAF) conditional on mobilization of additional concessional financing. ### Debt, arrears, and debt sustainability - Stock of arrears as of June 24, 2025: CFAF 84.5 billion (0.6 percent of GDP), down from CFAF 147.3 billion (1.1 percent of GDP) as of January 16, 2025. - Composition as of June 24, 2025: CFAF 15.1 billion (0.1 percent of GDP) external arrears; CFAF 69.5 billion (0.5 percent of GDP) domestic arrears. - Temporary new arrears to France: about CFAF 4.3 billion (0.03 percent of GDP); cleared as of June 25, 2025. - Pre-HIPC arrears to Libya: 15.2 million USD (approximately CFAF 9.3 billion) deemed away under policy on arrears to official bilateral creditors. - Debt sustainability: - Niger's risk of external and overall debt distress assessed as “high” in the most recent DSA, though debt is deemed sustainable over the medium term. - Projected public debt indicators (selected): - Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt (percent of GDP): 2024: 28.5; 2025: 24.9; 2026: 24.9 - Public domestic debt (percent of GDP): 2024: 19.9; 2025: 19.1; 2026: 18.1 ### Banking sector, liquidity, and sector support - Banking sector indicators and pressures: - Deposits fell by 3.4 percent in 2024. - Non-performing loans (NPLs) rose to 26.8 percent as of end-December 2024, up from 22.6 percent at end-December 2023 (WAEMU average: 8.7 percent). - As of end-February 2025, one bank was not meeting the capital adequacy requirement of 11.5 percent (five banks out of 14 were not meeting the requirement at end-2024). - Authorities estimate CFAF 116 billion (0.9 percent of GDP) needed to rebuild buffers and meet adequacy ratios for this bank. - Claims on the government as a share of commercial bank assets: 17.5 percent at end-2024. - BCEAO ended regulatory forbearance measures for Niger’s government securities as of April 15, 2025. - SONIBANK (selected facts): - Majority private-owned (Nigerien public entities equity stake: 31.5 percent); accounts for 21.5 percent of total banking sector assets. - SONIBANK’s non-performing loans increased from 0.7 percent of GDP at end-December 2023 to about 1.0 percent at end-December 2024. - Approximately 66 percent of SONIBANK’s non-performing loans estimated to be linked to government suppliers. - Authorities signed a CFAF 50 billion (0.4 percent of GDP) loan with BOAD to meet SONIBANK’s liquidity needs. - Supplier arrears and planned securitization: - At end-March 2025: total outstanding government liabilities to suppliers: CFAF 132.9 billion (1 percent of GDP), including CFAF 42.1 billion in arrears (0.3 percent of GDP). - World Bank-supported securitization operation prepared to clear supplier arrears and inject liquidity into the banking sector. ### Program implementation, performance, and requests - Program performance: - ECF program performance broadly satisfactory at end-December 2024 and end-March 2025. - All performance criteria (PCs) met except continuous PC on non-accumulation of new external arrears. - All Indicative targets (ITs) met at end-December 2024 and end-March 2025, except the ITs on the floor for the basic budget balance at end-December 2024. - Continuous Structural Benchmarks largely met; SB #1 and SB #2 not met on schedule (SB #1 implemented in June 2025; SB #2 expected adoption in June 2025). - Requests by authorities: - 12-month extension of the ECF arrangement until December 7, 2026 and rephasing of access. - Completion of the seventh review under the ECF and the third review under the RSF. - Waiver requested for non-observance of the continuous PC on non-accumulation of new external payment arrears. - Staff recommendation and proposed financing: - Staff supports conclusion of the seventh ECF review and third RSF review, with disbursements of SDR 13.16 million (ECF) and SDR 17.108 million (RSF). - Staff backs a waiver for the non-observance of the external arrears PC. - Staff supports extension of the ECF arrangement through December 7, 2026. - Rephasing of access: split original eighth review disbursement into three disbursements: - SDR 4.3428 million for the eighth review, - SDR 4.3428 million for the ninth review, - SDR 4.4744 million for the tenth review. - QPC of CFAF 550 billion ceiling on PV of newly contracted PPG external debt extended to June 2026. ### RSF reform measures, climate finance, and resilience - RSF reform measures implemented for the 3rd RSF review: RM1, RM2, RM4, RM5, RM7, RM8, RM9, RM10, RM11 (various statuses: Implemented; Implemented with a delay; Planned). - Climate finance and NDC: - Draft 2025 NDC investment need: US$9.9 billion over 10 years (US$990.7 million/year). - Climate finance mobilized during 2012–2021: US$360 million/year. - Nine concept notes prepared amount: US$2 billion. - BAGRI accreditation: Adaptation Fund (June 2025); Green Climate Fund (expected in July 2025). - Climate budgeting and PIM: - Climate budget tagging piloted with six sectoral ministries in the 2025 budget (RM2). - Climate risk assessment methodology for public investment validated in October 2024 (RM4). - Amended PIM legislation to integrate climate aspects published on the MEF website in June (RM5). - Selection of three projects for climate vulnerability analysis implemented with delay (RM6). ### Public financial management, governance, and revenue reforms - PFM and Treasury: - Move towards Treasury Single Account (TSA); inventory of government accounts launched March 2025. - Digitalization and decentralization of government payment orders; AE/CP budgeting extended to all ministries in 2025. - New SB#8: enhance presentation of the cash flow plan by integrating all cash resources and expenses. - Revenue mobilization and tax administration: - Estimated tax gap: around 3.4 percent of GDP. - Revision of the General Tax Code (SB#2): all seven books validated; adoption expected in June 2025. - SISIC deployment ongoing; e-SISIC portal recovery and DGI Mobile Payment project advancing. - Property taxation: real estate geo-tracking project (cadaster) in collaboration with the World Bank. - Oil revenue management: - Decree adopting Oil Revenue Management Strategy issued on January 21, 2025. - Decree determining formula for the reference price for the oil stabilization fund adopted in June 2025 (SB#1). - Authorities will publish contracts between government and oil companies (new SB#6). - Start tracking the non-oil primary balance in the 2026 budget exercise (new SB#7). ### Governance, anti‑corruption, and AML/CFT/CPF - Governance actions: - CoLDEFF recovered about CFAF 57 billion in its first year of operation. - Supreme Audit Institution (SAI-Cour des Comptes) reinstated in December 2024; members nominated in May 2025. - Authorities committed to amend legal framework to establish asset declaration obligations (new SB#4). - Publish Governance Diagnostic Assessment (GDA) report when completed in 2026 (SB#3). - AML/CFT/CPF: - Ordinance adopted to transpose WAEMU law on AML/CFT/CPF; six decrees pending signature. - Niger expressed interest to remain part of GIABA under Article 3 despite leaving ECOWAS. - CENTIF faces financial and capacity constraints. ### Social sectors, human capital, and social protection - Education and health initiatives: - CFAF 3.3 billion allocated in 2025 to reinstate the Primary School Completion Certificate (CFEPD). - Plan to recruit additional civil servants and integrate contractual teachers into the public payroll. - World Bank-supported training for at least 50,000 primary and secondary school teachers by 2028. - Health measures: lower out-of-pocket costs, free childbirth and dialysis services, recruitment of health professionals, construction of 135 modern health centers, provision of scanners and imaging equipment. - Unified Social Registry (USR): - USR expansion underway with 672,000 households already enrolled. - Government aims to register all poor and vulnerable households by 2030. ### Risks, vulnerabilities, and contingency responses - Elevated downside risks and key vulnerabilities: - Tight regional financing conditions and rollover risks. - Elevated stock of debt service arrears and temporary accumulation of new external arrears (since cleared). - High NPLs (26.8 percent) and liquidity pressures in the banking sector. - Sovereign-bank nexus: government claims 17.5 percent of commercial bank assets. - Potential adverse effects from ending regulatory forbearance on banks holding domestic securities in arrears. - Downside scenarios and impacts: - Fiscal shock from ODA reductions (preliminary staff estimates): withdrawal of about 1 percent of GDP in ODA could widen fiscal deficit by 0.6 percentage points of GDP, deteriorate the current account balance by 1 percentage point of GDP, and reduce output by 0.4 percentage points. - Recommended policy responses (selected, exact emphases): - Continue and accelerate implementation of structural reforms (including SB #1 and SB #2) and RSF reform measures. - Consolidate fiscal discipline while creating space for development spending. - Strengthen arrears clearance plan to settle all domestic and external arrears by end-2025. - Enhance measures to address banking sector liquidity and solvency, including discussions with the World Bank on modalities for financial support to securitize government supplier arrears. - Maintain reforms to bolster governance, particularly in the oil sector, and continue technical assistance to support reform implementation. - Mobilize domestic revenue through: revision of the general tax code, reductions in tax exemptions, and efforts to enhance property taxation. - Maintain a prudent debt policy; respect the zero ceiling on new non-concessional external debt. ### Program financing, Fund obligations, and capacity to repay - Disbursement and rephasing (exact): - Disbursements under the seventh review: SDR 13.16 million. - RSF third tranche: SDR 17.108 million. - Remaining access rephased: SDR 4.3428 million (eighth review), SDR 4.3428 million (ninth review), SDR 4.4744 million (tenth review). - IMF obligations and indicators (Table 11 highlights, selected): - Fund obligations (existing credit) principal and charges for years 2025–2045 tabulated in SDR millions (selected sequence: 41.5, 39.5, 50., 95.3, 56.8, 45.5, 34.2, 26.3, 10.5, 6.6, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 1.3). - Repayment obligations to the Fund peak at 1.7 percent of exports in 2029 and 2.9 percent of tax revenues in 2027. - Staff assessment: - Despite near-term challenges, medium-term outlook leaves Niger sufficient capacity to repay the Fund, contingent on swift implementation of reforms and mobilization of concessional financing. ### Monitoring, reporting, and technical assistance priorities - Data and reporting commitments (selected deadlines): - Monthly fiscal and debt reporting: within six weeks after end of each month. - Monthly consolidated balance sheet of monetary institutions: within eight weeks after end of each month. - Quarterly national accounts and quarterly banking supervision indicators: within specified program timelines. - IMF capacity development priorities (exact list): - i) enhancing governance and fiscal transparency, - ii) advancing climate reforms, - iii) improving treasury and debt management, - iv) strengthening both tax policy and revenue administration, - v) improving public investment management, - vi) enhancing macroeconomic and fiscal statistics. - Key administrative actions and timing (selected): - Revised General Tax Code adopted through ordinance number 2025-22 signed by President Tiani on July 10, 2025. - Supplementary budget adopted through ordinance number 2025-21 signed by President Tiani on July 10, 2025; aligns the 2025 fiscal deficit to the WAEMU convergence criteria of 3 percent of GDP. - Governance Diagnostic mission scheduled for September 2025; GDA publication reset to end-March 2026. *Source: IMF staff report excerpt (Niger).* ### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ### Context - Niger faces fragility, conflict, and vulnerability to climate shocks. - The withdrawal of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) countries from ECOWAS became effective on January 29, 2025; ECOWAS maintained membership privileges for Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger until modalities of future engagement are determined. - The National Assemblies concluded in March 2025 proposed a five-year transition to democratic governance and proposed to allow President Tiiani to stand as a candidate in forthcoming elections. - AES countries jointly decided on March 28, 2025 to impose a 0.5 percent tariff on imports from outside the bloc to finance AES institutions (replacement of the previous duty applied to non-ECOWAS members to finance ECOWAS institutions). - Authorities will adopt a new development strategy, the Resilience Program for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (PRSP), built on four pillars: (i) strengthening security and social cohesion; (ii) promoting good governance; (iii) developing production structures for economic sovereignty; and (iv) accelerating social reforms. ### Economic developments and outlook - Growth and sectoral drivers: - Growth in 2024 is estimated at 10.3 percent, driven by the start of crude oil exports and an exceptional agricultural harvest. - Primary sector growth in 2024: 15.2 percent. - Tertiary sector growth in 2024: 2.5 percent. - A total of 10.1 million barrels of crude oil were exported through end-2024. - External sector and inflation: - Current account deficit narrowed to 6 percent of GDP in 2024, down from 13.9 percent in 2023. - Average inflation in 2024: 9.1 percent. - Inflation expected to recede to 4.2 percent in 2025. - Outlook: - GDP growth is expected at 6.6 percent in 2025 despite headwinds. - Medium-term growth should average about 6.3 percent, supported by structural reforms, investments in extractive industries, expanded agricultural irrigation, and increased urbanization. - Significant uncertainty around the baseline; downside risks are elevated. - Fiscal outturn and corrective actions: - Overall fiscal deficit in 2024: 4.3 percent of GDP (program target: 4.1 percent). - Non-tax revenues included one-off CoLDEFF proceeds of CFAF 25 billion (0.2 percent of GDP). - Domestic loan-financed capital expenditure was lower than projected by 1 percentage point of GDP, partially offsetting fiscal slippages; excess deficit limited to 0.2 percentage points of GDP. - Corrective measures introduced in Q4 2024 included boosting tax compliance, increasing audits and controls, expanding the tax base, and enhancing tax filing procedures. - Financing conditions and debt markets: - Weighted average yield on Nigerien sovereign debt stock in the WAEMU market rose to 8.6 percent as of May 2025, an increase of 305 basis points compared to January 2023. - In May 2025, Nigerien securities' issuance interest rate was approximately 315 basis points higher than securities issued by Cote d’Ivoire. - Average maturity at issuance shortened from 60 to 18 months since January 2023. - Large debt repayment spike in April 2025: CFAF 326 billion in securities (1.8 percent of GDP) matured. - CFAF 410 billion in 3-, 6- and 12-month securities was issued in April 2025 to cover repayments. - Domestic investors purchased approximately one-third of the debt issued in the regional market in 2024. - Arrears and debt sustainability: - Stock of arrears as of June 24, 2025: CFAF 84.5 billion (0.6 percent of GDP), down from CFAF 147.3 billion (1.1 percent of GDP) as of January 16, 2025. - Composition as of June 24, 2025: CFAF 15.1 billion (0.1 percent of GDP) external arrears; CFAF 69.5 billion (0.5 percent of GDP) domestic arrears. - Niger temporarily accumulated new arrears to France amounting to about CFAF 4.3 billion (0.03 percent of GDP); these arrears were cleared as of June 25, 2025. - Pre-HIPC Initiative arrears to Libya amounting to 15.2 million USD (approximately CFAF 9.3 billion) are deemed away under the policy on arrears to official bilateral creditors. - Niger's risk of external and overall debt distress assessed as “high” in the most recent DSA, though debt is deemed sustainable over the medium term. - Banking sector and financial stability: - Deposits fell by 3.4 percent in 2024. - Non-performing loans (NPLs) rose to 26.8 percent as of end-December 2024, up from 22.6 percent at end-December 2023 (WAEMU average: 8.7 percent). - As of end-February 2025, one bank was not meeting the capital adequacy requirement of 11.5 percent (five banks out of 14 were not meeting the requirement at end-2024). - Authorities estimate CFAF 116 billion (0.9 percent of GDP) would be needed to rebuild buffers and meet adequacy ratios for this bank. - Claims on the government as a share of commercial bank assets: 17.5 percent at end-2024. - The BCEAO ended regulatory forbearance measures for Niger’s government securities as of April 15, 2025. ### Program performance and requests - Program performance: - ECF program performance was broadly satisfactory at end-December 2024 and end-March 2025. - All performance criteria (PCs) were met except for the continuous PC on the non-accumulation of new external arrears. - All Indicative targets (ITs) were met at end-December 2024 and end-March 2025, except for the ITs on the floor for the basic budget balance (including and excluding grants) at end-December 2024. - All continuous Structural Benchmarks (SBs) were met, but SB #1 (adoption of a decree determining the formula for the reference price for the oil stabilization fund) and SB #2 (adoption of the revised General Tax Code) were not met. - Delays have built up on the structural reforms front, though authorities are making steadfast efforts to implement reforms. - RSF and reform measures: - Authorities implemented the two reform measures (RMs) expected for the 3rd RSF review. - Staff is confident that the remaining RSF reform measures will be achieved over the program horizon given authorities’ strong commitment and delivered technical assistance. - Requests by authorities: - Authorities request a 12-month extension of the ECF arrangement until December 2026 and a rephasing of access. - Staff recommendation and proposed financing: - Staff supports conclusion of the seventh review under the ECF and the third review under the RSF arrangements, which will result in disbursements of SDR 13.16 million and SDR 17.108 million, respectively. - Staff backs a waiver for the non-observance of the performance criterion on the accumulation of external payment arrears. - Staff supports the extension of the ECF arrangement for 12 months through December 7, 2026. - Staff supports rephasing of access by splitting the disbursement associated with the original eighth review into three disbursements: - SDR 4.3428 million for the eighth review, - SDR 4.3428 million for the ninth review, - SDR 4.4744 million for the tenth review. - The extension of the ECF will support: (i) implementation of additional reforms to consolidate progress in governance, especially in the oil sector; (ii) entrenchment of sound fiscal policies; and (iii) addressing the protracted balance of payments needs induced by the tight financing environment. ### Risks, vulnerabilities, and policy priorities - Downside risks are elevated and uncertainty around the baseline is significant. - Key vulnerabilities: - Tight regional financing conditions and rollover risks. - Elevated stock of debt service arrears and temporary accumulation of new external arrears (since cleared). - High NPLs (26.8 percent) and liquidity pressures in the banking sector. - Sovereign-bank nexus with government claims representing 17.5 percent of commercial bank assets. - Potential adverse effects from ending regulatory forbearance on banks holding domestic securities in arrears. - Priority policy actions highlighted: - Continue and accelerate implementation of structural reforms (including SB #1 and SB #2) and RSF reform measures. - Consolidate fiscal discipline while creating space for development spending. - Strengthen arrears clearance plan to settle all domestic and external arrears by end-2025. - Enhance measures to address banking sector liquidity and solvency, including discussions with the World Bank on modalities for financial support to securitize government supplier arrears. - Maintain reforms to bolster governance, particularly in the oil sector, and continue technical assistance to support reform implementation. *IMF staff mission conducted in Niamey during May 5-16, 2025; mission head: Antonio David; mission included AFR, FAD, SPR staff, IMF Resident Representative, local economists, and advisor OED; mission met Prime Minister and Minister of the Economy and Finance Mr. Ali Mahamane Lamine Zeine and other senior officials and stakeholders.* ### 11. Program implementation was broadly on track against end-December 2024 and end- ### Program implementation was broadly on track against end-December 2024 and end-March 2025 targets ### Program implementation and fiscal outturns - All performance criteria (PCs) at end-December 2024 and the continuous PCs were met, except for the continuous PC on the non-accumulation of new external arrears. - Net domestic financing remained below its target. - Present value (PV) of new public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt was below its ceiling. - The zero ceiling on new non-concessional external debt was met. - All indicative targets (ITs) were met at end-December 2024 and end-March 2025, except the floors for the basic budget balance (including and excluding grants) at end-December 2024. - The floors on cash revenue and social spending were exceeded and the ratio of exceptional expenditure was below its ceiling at the target dates. - Basic budget balance (excluding grants) at end-December 2024: -3.4 percent of GDP (1.1 percent of GDP below the floor target). - Shortfall in revenues: 0.6 percentage points of GDP (driven by non-tax revenue). - Slippages on current spending and domestically-financed investment: 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points of GDP, respectively. - Causes: elevated security spending pressures and higher than programmed transfers and subsidies. - At end-March 2025, budget balance targets were met with a small basic balance surplus, driven by improved cash revenue performance and lower than projected spending, especially domestically-financed investment. ### Structural reforms and benchmarks - Continuous SBs under the ECF met: tax exemptions (continuous SB#1), public procurement (continuous SB#2 and continuous SB#4), public investment projects (continuous SB#3), and publication of budget execution reports (SB#5). - Decree determining the formula of the reference price for the oil stabilization fund (SB#1) was not met on schedule due to delays in required technical work; implemented in June 2025. - Adoption of the revised General Tax Code (SB#2) was not met at end-April 2025 due to extended consultations; expected to be adopted over the next weeks in line with a detailed roadmap (expected in June 2025). - Governance diagnostic assessment mission postponed to September 2025; publication of report reset to end-March 2026. - Reform measures (RMs) under the RSF implemented for the 3rd RSF review: - RM2: piloting of the climate budget tagging methodology by selected sector ministries in the 2025 budget. - RM5: adoption of a decree to integrate climate change aspects in the stages of public investment management. ### Foreign exchange regime - No changes in the foreign exchange system and foreign exchange restrictions since the last ECF review. - BCEAO is monitoring and enforcing existing foreign exchange regulations, including documentation and repatriation requirements of export proceeds, and has not introduced new foreign restrictions. ### Outlook and key macro projections - 2025 GDP growth projected at 6.6 percent, driven by oil production operating close to full capacity of about 110 thousand barrels per day. - Average inflation projected at 4.2 percent in 2025, supported by a favorable harvest. - Current account deficit expected to narrow by 2.9 percentage points of GDP due to increased oil exports and recovery in uranium production and exports. - Growth revised down relative to last review due to: - Persistence of the border closure with Benin, - Challenges in the banking sector, - Uncertain external environment. - Output gap projected to close by 2028; growth will average about 6.3 percent over 2026-2030. - Inflation expected to fall below the upper limit of the WAEMU regional target of 3 percent. - Current account deficit projection over 2026-2030: average 4.0 percent of GDP. ### Medium-term selected economic indicators (selected values from Text Table 3) - GDP at constant prices (percent change): 2024: 10.3; 2025: 6.6; 2026: 6.7; 2027: 6.5; 2028: 6.0; 2029: 6.0; 2030: 6.0 - Consumer price index, average (percent change): 2024: 9.1; 2025: 4.2; 2026: 3.2; 2027: 2.0; 2028: 2.0; 2029: 2.0; 2030: 2.0 - Consumer price index, end of period (percent change): 2024: 4.7; 2025: 3.6; 2026: 2.5; 2027: 2.0; 2028: 2.0; 2029: 2.0; 2030: 2.0 - Credit to the private sector (percent change): 2024: 9.7; 2025: 14.2; 2026: 13.9; 2027: 8.9; 2028: 8.7; 2029: 8.5; 2030: 8.4 - Total revenue (percent of GDP): 2024: 7.7; 2025: 9.4; 2026: 9.9; 2027: 10.3; 2028: 10.8; 2029: 11.0; 2030: 11.2 - Total expenditure and net lending (percent of GDP): 2024: 13.4; 2025: 14.2; 2026: 14.2; 2027: 14.6; 2028: 14.9; 2029: 15.0; 2030: 15.0 - Overall fiscal balance (commitment basis, incl. grants) (percent of GDP): 2024: -4.3; 2025: -3.0; 2026: -3.0; 2027: -3.0; 2028: -3.0; 2029: -3.0; 2030: -3.0 - External current account balance (excl. grants) (percent of GDP): 2024: -6.4; 2025: -3.4; 2026: -5.3; 2027: -4.3; 2028: -4.1; 2029: -4.3; 2030: -4.1 - Total public and publicly-guaranteed debt (percent of GDP): 2024: 48.4; 2025: 44.0; 2026: 43.0; 2027: 42.6; 2028: 42.6; 2029: 42.6; 2030: 42.5 - Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt (percent of GDP): 2024: 28.5; 2025: 24.9; 2026: 24.9; 2027: 24.6; 2028: 24.5; 2029: 24.5; 2030: 24.7 - Public domestic debt (percent of GDP): 2024: 19.9; 2025: 19.1; 2026: 18.1; 2027: 18.0; 2028: 18.0; 2029: 18.1; 2030: 17.8 ### Banking sector and arrears clearance - Clearance of debt service and supplier arrears expected to ease some liquidity pressures in the banking system and improve banks’ balance sheets. - At end-March 2025: total outstanding government liabilities to suppliers: CFAF 132.9 billion (1 percent of GDP), including CFAF 42.1 billion in arrears (0.3 percent of GDP). - Authorities signed, but not yet ratified, a non-concessional external loan with the West African Development Bank (BOAD) to support one systemically important bank address liquidity issues linked to arrears. - Loan meets IMF debt limits policy exception conditions: (i) no concessional financing available; (ii) no adverse impact on DSA debt burden indicators or breach of PV borrowing limit PC; (iii) integral to authorities’ development strategy. Box summary: Support to SONIBANK (selected facts) - SONIBANK: majority private-owned (Nigerien public entities equity stake: 31.5 percent); accounts for 21.5 percent of total banking sector assets. - SONIBANK’s non-performing loans increased from 0.7 percent of GDP at end-December 2023 to about 1.0 percent at end-December 2024. - Approximately 66 percent of SONIBANK’s non-performing loans estimated to be linked to government suppliers. - Authorities signed a CFAF 50 billion (0.4 percent of GDP) loan with BOAD to meet SONIBANK’s liquidity needs. ### Risks and downside scenarios - Elevated downside risks include: - Deterioration in the security situation affecting economic activity and causing additional spending pressures. - Implementation shortfalls in the authorities’ borrowing plan due to tight financing conditions and large roll-over risks in domestic debt markets. - Extended border closure with Benin, which could exacerbate trade disruptions, increase inflation, and decrease customs revenues, with potential for social unrest. - External financing challenges due to tensions with traditional development partners amid geopolitical fragmentation. - Policy options to respond to risks: - Accommodate increased security and targeted social safety net spending through spending reprioritization, efficiency gains, revenue mobilization, and engagement with the international community on security issues. - Consider a more gradual fiscal adjustment path if financing is available. - Accelerate efforts to promote regional economic integration and trade diversification. - Intensify efforts to improve the investment climate and strengthen fiscal buffers (including by broadening the tax base). ### Fiscal shock from ODA reductions (preliminary staff estimates based on 2024 data) - Withdrawal of about 1 percent of GDP in ODA funding could: - Widen the fiscal deficit by 0.6 percentage points of GDP if authorities cover humanitarian assistance shortfalls. - Deteriorate the current account balance by 1 percentage point of GDP. - Reduce output by 0.4 percentage points. - Exacerbate liquidity challenges in the banking system due to a decline in related deposits. - Reduce humanitarian assistance operations with adverse effects for health, nutrition, social cohesion, and security. ### Policy discussions — fiscal consolidation and development spending - Consolidation efforts in 2025: projected 1.3 percentage points of GDP fiscal adjustment to reach the 3 percent of GDP deficit target, driven by stronger revenue mobilization while domestic expenditure growth is projected to be contained. - Downward revision of customs revenue projections by 0.3 percentage points of GDP due to longer border closure with Benin; partially offset by measures expected to generate approximately CFAF 10 billion (0.1 percent of GDP). - Revenue outturns at end-March exceeded projections, prompting slight upward adjustments in tax and non-tax revenue forecasts for 2025. - Resource allocation priorities: security and social spending, including health, education, and food security. - Supplementary budget being elaborated to align with program targets: aim for deficit of 3 percent of GDP; contains more prudent revenue projections and substantially lower spending, particularly domestic and externally financed investment. - Authorities intend to maintain a prudent borrowing policy to limit risk of debt distress. - External budget financing expected to increase in 2025 to 1.3 percent of GDP (from largely lower post-July 2023 levels). - Estimated budget loans comprise financing from AfDB and the World Bank. - Total project financing unlikely to exceed 3.5 percent of GDP due to limited absorption capacity. - Total net domestic financing projected at 1.8 percent of GDP (CFAF 233 billion). - Gross financing needs projected to reach 13.2 percent of GDP (see Text Table 5). ### Sources of fiscal consolidation (Text Table 4 selected entries) - Revenue, Natural Resources Sector: 2023 ∆: 2.0; 2023-24 ∆: 0.3; 2024-25 ∆: 1.5; Aggregate ∆ 2023-25: 1.9 - Revenue, Other: 2023 value: 6.7; 2023-24 ∆: -1.3; 2024-25 ∆: 0.1; Aggregate ∆ 2023-25: -1.2 - Budget grants (Incl. CCRT): 2023 value: 0.5; 2023-24 ∆: -0.3; 2024-25 ∆: -0.1; Aggregate ∆ 2023-25: -0.4 - Domestic expenditure and net lending: 2023 value: 12.4; 2023-24 ∆: -1.3; 2024-25 ∆: -0.4; Aggregate ∆ 2023-25: -1.7 - Foreign loan-financed capex: 2023 value: 2.1; 2023-24 ∆: -1.2; 2024-25 ∆: 0.7; Aggregate ∆ 2023-25: -0.4 - Fiscal balance / total consolidation: -5.4; 2023-24 ∆: 1.1; 2024-25 ∆: 1.3; Aggregate ∆ 2023-25: 2.4 - Memo: Compound average GDP growth rate: 18.1% (baseline), 10.6% (∆ 2023-24), 11.4% (∆ 2024-25) ### Government financing needs (Text Table 5, 2025) - Gross Financing Needs: 1756 Billion CFAF; 13.2% GDP - Central Government fiscal deficit (overall cash deficit + grants, excluding interest arrears): 400 Billion CFAF; 3.0% GDP - Amortization: 1209 Billion CFAF; 9.1% GDP - Domestic amortization: 1030 Billion CFAF; 7.7% GDP - External amortization: 179 Billion CFAF; 1.3% GDP - Arrears repayment (interest + principal): 147 Billion CFAF; 1.1% GDP - Domestic arrears repayment: 100 Billion CFAF; 0.7% GDP - External arrears repayment: 48 Billion CFAF; 0.4% GDP ### Revenue mobilization reforms and measures - Estimated tax gap: around 3.4 percent of GDP (mainly gaps in tax revenue on goods and services, and international trade). - Key reform actions: - Revising the general tax code (SB#2): all seven books validated by Technical Committee and National Advisory Council on Tax Policy; expected adoption in June 2025. Aims: shift tax burden toward consumption, simplify system, improve compliance, broaden tax base, reduce exemptions, support private sector development. - Improving revenue administration: enhance collaboration between tax and customs administrations; refine risk analysis; promote digitalization; deploy integrated tax and taxpayer information system (SISIC); implement SCTVA for data cross-checks on certified invoices and taxpayer returns. - Advance property taxation: real estate geo-tracking project in collaboration with the World Bank to create a property cadaster and improve property value estimation. - Oil revenue management: - Decree determining formula for the reference price for the oil stabilization fund adopted in June 2025 (SB #1). - Authorities will publish contracts between government and oil companies (new SB #6). - Start tracking the non-oil primary balance in the 2026 budget exercise (new SB #7) with a view to integrate a non-oil balance target in the budget framework. *Source: IMF staff report.* ### 24. The authorities are implementing initiatives aimed at improving the quality of ### 1nerea2025003 - 24. The authorities are implementing initiatives aimed at improving the quality of ### Education and Health / Human Capital - Human capital development represents a critical challenge to enhance productivity and foster economic growth in Niger, but government expenditures on health and education are not efficiently translated into human capital (IMF Country Report 25/25). - Tackling poor governance and severe inequalities in access to health and education can contribute to enhancing spending efficiency in Niger. - Ongoing initiatives: - Allocation of CFAF 3.3 billion in 2025 to reinstate the Primary School Completion Certificate (CFEPD) which will boost the quality of basic education (MEFP ¶28). - Plan to recruit additional civil servants and integrate contractual teachers into the public sector payroll. - With support from the World Bank, training and coaching programs will benefit at least 50,000 primary and secondary school teachers by 2028. - Health sector measures: - Lowering out-of-pocket costs for patients. - Offering free childbirth and dialysis services. - Recruiting health professionals to reduce waiting times and improve healthcare service quality. - Construction of 135 modern health centers and provision of scanners and imaging equipment to selected hospitals (MEFP ¶29). ### Public Financial Management (PFM) and Treasury - Improving PFM is essential for promoting the efficient use of public resources. - Authorities' initiatives: - Move towards the Treasury Single Account (TSA) with gradual closure of bank accounts opened by public entities during the sanctions period. - Inventory of government accounts held in commercial banks launched on March 2025 (MEFP ¶23). - Initiatives to digitalize and decentralize government payment orders to improve efficiency and transparency (MEFP ¶24). - Reform of the expenditure execution process (commitment authorizations/payments credits) to be extended to all ministries in 2025, following the 2022 pilot and the first expansion in 2023 (MEFP ¶22). - Treasury management and arrears prevention: - Following IMF technical assistance recommendations, enhance presentation of the cash flow plan by integrating all cash resources and expenses (new SB#8, MEFP¶18). - Ongoing efforts to digitalize the public expenditure chain to improve expenditure controls (MEFP¶25). ### Private Sector Development and Financial Soundness - Underdevelopment of the private sector is an obstacle to growth due to high informality, low human capital, skill mismatches, lack of competitiveness, limited access to financing, and complex business regulations. - Authorities' measures: - Imminent adoption of the revised SME charter to enhance competitiveness and facilitate access to financing. - Revamping public-private dialogue framework. - One-stop foreign trade window (“Guichet Unique du Commerce Extérieur”) is operational and contributing to digitalization and easing administrative procedures. - Ongoing challenges: - Private operators still face difficulties securing bank credit. - Transportation costs increased due to security issues and the closure of the Benin border (including costs of military escorts). ### Financial Sector Vulnerabilities and Microfinance - Priorities and recommendations: - Prompt settlement of domestic debt service arrears is a priority for improving bank balance sheets and alleviating liquidity pressures. - Resolve payment delays to government suppliers, prevent future arrears, and implement measures to restore confidence in the banking sector. - The securitization operation supported by the World Bank could alleviate liquidity constraints and enhance banking sector resilience. - Ensure the bank failing to meet the capital adequacy ratio formulates and implements a time-bound recapitalization plan in coordination with the regional Banking Commission; the bank’s new administration has submitted a proposal under evaluation. - BCEAO monitoring of implementation progress of the new increased minimum capital requirements for banks to ensure compliance within the stipulated three-year transition period. - Microfinance sector status (end-December 2024): - 18 out of a total of 41 microfinance institutions were facing challenges, including breaching regulatory requirements, mismanagement, lack of profitability, and disruptions of activities due to security issues. - 11 institutions are currently subject to license withdraw procedures by the regulator. - TAANADI: license withdrawn and activities are being liquidated. - ASUSU: restructuring delayed to June 2025 and an agreement with its creditors is in progress. - MCPEC: serious deficiencies observed; placed under enhanced monitoring. ### Governance Reforms and Anti‑Corruption / AML-CFT-CPF - Supreme Audit Institution (SAI-Cour des Comptes): - Reinstated in December 2024; members nominated in May 2025 after extensive background checks. - Staff encouraged establishing a framework of collaboration between the SAI and the Financial and Tax Crime Fighting Commission (CoLDEFF), potentially via a memorandum of understanding. - Authorities committed to amend the legal framework by establishing asset declaration obligations by public officials in line with international best practices (new SB#4 and MEFP ¶31). - AML/CFT/CPF framework: - An ordinance adopted to transpose into national law the new WAEMU law on AML/CFT/CPF; the necessary 6 decrees for full implementation are in the process of being signed by the President. - Authorities working to address deficiencies identified by the most recent GIABA assessment (MEFP ¶33). - Despite leaving ECOWAS, Niger has expressed interest to remain part of the GIABA under Article 3 of the regional institution’s statutes. - CENTIF continues to face significant financial and capacity constraints. - Other governance actions: - Publish the Governance Diagnostic Assessment (GDA) report when completed in 2026 (SB#3) and use its recommendations to inform ECF-supported program reforms. - Reinstate the arbitration and regulation committees for public procurement (new SB#5). - Continue efforts to address deficiencies in powers to collect beneficial ownership information of public limited companies awarded procurement contracts. - Niger is a subscriber of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI); the most recent country report referring to the year 2022 was published in December 2024. Niger was recently placed under “targeted assessment” to evaluate stakeholder engagement in EITI implementation; an evaluation report is expected to be submitted to the EITI board in June. ### Climate Change Resilience and Climate Finance - Overall framework and RSF role: - Authorities updating NDCs and National Adaptation Plan and advancing other policy areas to foster transparency and accountability (MEFP ¶39). - RSF reform measures (RMs) are critical for creating and sustaining balance of payments and fiscal space to address future climate shocks by improving spending efficiency and reducing import demand for reconstruction. - Support to promoting renewable energy can enhance growth and net exports and build resilience against balance of payments shocks. - Planning and budgeting of climate-related spending: - A taskforce piloted the climate budget tagging (CBT) framework with six sectoral ministries for the 2025 budget—exceeding the four required by the RSF—and shared results with IMF staff (RM2). - The CBT methodology (RM1) will be updated and published alongside the 2025 climate budget note. - CBT taskforce will prepare the amendment of the 2026 budget circular mandating the six ministries to conduct CBT during the 2026 budget preparation (RM3). - Public Investment Management (PIM) and climate risk: - Amended PIM legislation to integrate climate aspects into analysis and selection of investment projects; text published on the MEF website in June (RM5). - PIM guide, developed with World Bank support, being finalized in line with revised legislation. - Climate risk assessment methodology for public investment projects and programs validated in October 2024 (RM4). - Progress in selecting three projects in agriculture, infrastructure, and energy sectors for climate vulnerability analysis as part of project appraisal (RM6). - Macroeconomic integration and data gaps: - Niger is a pilot case for integrating climate change in macroeconomic frameworks (MEFP ¶41). - IMF technical assistance used the Public Debt Dynamic Tool (DDT) to forecast and simulate baseline public debt trajectories and climate risk scenarios. - World Bank technical assistance to enhance medium-term macroeconomic climate modeling capacities. - Key challenge: data gaps, particularly concerning costs of damages and losses during flood and drought cycles. - Climate finance needs and mobilization: - Draft 2025 NDC estimates a total investment need of US$9.9 billion over the next 10 years (US$990.7 million/year). - Climate finance mobilized during the previous decade (2012-2021): US$360 million/year. - Progress in leveraging climate finance: - Accreditation of Niger’s Agriculture Bank (BAGRI) with the Adaptation Fund (June 2025) and the Green Climate Fund (expected in July 2025). - Finalization of nine concept notes to be submitted to the NDC committee for validation. - Targeted training on procedures and project formulation for the Green Climate Fund and the Adaptation Fund. - Identified capacity and coordination constraints: need for stronger leadership, improved planning and coordination to align with government priorities and efficient use of climate resources. - Development partners established a Climate Club post-COP 2026 to facilitate collaboration and knowledge sharing. - Social safety nets and Unified Social Registry (USR): - USR expansion underway with 672,000 households already enrolled. - Government aims to register all poor and vulnerable households by 2030. - Constraints to achieving the goal: (i) limited financial resources, (ii) lack of consensus on a unique identifier system for individuals and households in Niger, and (iii) insufficient capacity for regular data updates. - Once fully operational, the USR is expected to serve as a key tool for effectively targeting assistance during crises (MEFP ¶27). ### RSF Reform Measures Timetable and Implementation Status (selected) - Implemented reform measures noted in the timetable include: - RM1 (Climate PFM). Government to validate a methodology for tagging climate-related expenditures (CBT). Implemented. - RM2 (Climate PFM). Government to apply the CBT framework for at least 4 sectoral ministries in their 2025 budget and share the results with IMF staff. Implemented. - RM3 (Climate PFM). Government to amend the budget circular for the preparation of the 2026 budget to include instructions on identifying climate-related allocations in the 2026 budget preparation. Planned (timetable). - RM4 (Climate PIM). Government to develop and publish a guide defining the methodology for climate vulnerability assessments of public investment projects and programs. Implemented. - RM5 (Climate PIM). Government to amend decree to require integration of climate change aspects in public investment management and to publish it. Implemented. - RM6 (Climate PIM). Government to publish feasibility studies, including climate vulnerability assessments, for at least three public investment projects. Implemented with delay. - RM7 (Climate PFM). Government to publish on the website of the Ministry of the Economy and Finance a guide for the analysis of budgetary risks related to natural disasters. Implemented. - RM8 (Climate PFM). Government to publish a fiscal risks statement, including an assessment of natural disasters related risks, on the Ministry of the Economy and Finance website. Implemented. - RM9 (DRM). Government to adopt an order to establish focal points in the relevant directorates of three selected ministries. Implemented. - RM10 (DRM). Government to publish flood and drought risk assessments in key exposed areas on the National DRM Data Platform: www.risques-niger.ne. Implemented. - RM11 (Green Energy). Government to create a new window (“Guichet”) within the FONAP to provide technical and financial assistance for improving bankability of SME projects in renewable energy. Implemented. ### Program Modalities and Waiver Request - Authorities requested a waiver for the non-observance of the performance criterion on the accumulation of new external payments arrears. - Context and corrective actions: - Inadequacies in treasury cash management led to temporary accumulation of new external arrears after the completion of the 6th ECF review. - Authorities have cleared the newly accumulated arrears and are committed to implementing IMF technical assistance recommendations on treasury management. - Staff assessment: Despite the non-observance, program objectives remain achievable given the temporary nature of the breach, the corrective measures, and the authorities’ commitments to: - (i) adhere to the fiscal adjustment path under the program; - (ii) follow prudent debt policies over the program horizon, including reliance on concessional financing; - (iii) strengthen treasury and debt management in line with IMF technical assistance recommendations. *Source: Extracted content from the provided IMF PDF chapter/section.* ### 40. The authorities also requested the completion of the seventh review and a twelve- ### The authorities also requested the completion of the seventh review and a twelve-month extension of the ECF arrangement to December 2026 ### Program extension, rephasing, and disbursements - Authorities requested: completion of the seventh review and a twelve-month extension of the ECF arrangement to December 2026, and a rephasing to allow additional time to implement key reforms and entrench sustainable policies. - Extension objectives: - (i) implementing additional reforms to further consolidate recent progress in governance, especially in the oil sector, - (ii) entrenching sound fiscal policies, - (iii) addressing the protracted balance of payments needs induced by the tight financing environment. - Disbursement schedule and amounts (exact): - Disbursements under the seventh review would be maintained at SDR 13.16 million. - Remaining access available at the time of the eighth (SDR 4.3428 million), nineth (SDR 4.3428 million) and tenth (SDR 4.4744 million) reviews. - Program finance and contingent elements: - The authorities also request the completion of the third RSF review. - Total disbursements under the ECF and RSF would remain unchanged. - In the context of the program extension, the QPC of CFAF 550 billion ceiling on the present value of newly contracted PPG external debt, originally set for the remaining program period in 2025, has been extended to cover the period until June 2026. - No new PPG external debt has been programmed into the current ECF due to this extension. ### Fiscal adjustor and priority spending - An adjustor to the program’s basic budget balance indicative targets for 2025: - The basic budget balance indicative targets could be relaxed by an amount equivalent to 0.5 percent of GDP, expressed in billion CFAF, to accommodate security and other priority social spending, - Condition: provided that the authorities secure additional concessional financing (beyond the currently envisaged amounts). ### Financing outlook, needs, and contingency measures - Program financing stance: - The program remains fully financed under the proposed extension and rephasing with firm commitments for the upcoming 12 months and strong prospects for the remainder of its duration. - Financing challenges and contingency: - Niger continues to face significant financing challenges; IMF engagement is essential to creating fiscal space and mobilizing support from other development partners. - Any shortfall in financing will need to be addressed by contingency measures, including reductions in spending, while preserving key areas like security, education, and health. - Table highlights (selected exact figures from Text Table 6): - Total Financing Requirement: 707 742 1,023 914 (years appear as headings in table: 2024 2025 2026 2027) - Current account deficit (excl. budget support grants): 73 64 22 73 9 65 4 (presented in table cells) - Government amortization: 100 179 146 160 - Changes in FA excl. RSF disbursements (+: increase) 1/: -129 142 137 100 - Total Financing Source: 663 547 821 805 - Foreign direct investment: 217 164 168 153 - Project-related financing: 275 461 513 545 - Other flows: 171 -78 14 11 08 (table formatting preserved as supplied) - Financing Need: 45 196 201 109 - Budget support: 30 17 21 94 109 (table cells as supplied) - ECF: 152 470 - RSF disbursement: 285 300 - Total changes in FA incl. RSF disbursements 1/: -101 195 137 100 - Residual Financing Gap: 0 0 0 0 ### Risks and capacity to repay the Fund - Program risks (exact list): - (i) political uncertainty; - (ii) a deterioration of the security situation; - (iii) the continued funding squeeze; - (iv) a large decline in overseas development assistance. - Additional risk note: Limited external financing increases the risk of overreliance on domestic debt instruments. - Capacity to repay: - Despite the challenging near-term context, the favorable medium-term outlook leaves Niger sufficient capacity to repay the Fund (Table 11). - Repayment obligations to the Fund peak at 1.7 percent of exports in 2029 and 2.9 percent of tax revenues in 2027. - The swift implementation of the authorities’ reform agenda mitigates downside risks to capacity to repay, which encompass fiscal slippages as well as climate related shocks. - Niger’s capacity to repay is further mitigated by its track record of timely repayments and access to the WAEMU pooled regional reserves. ### Safeguards and IMF technical assistance priorities - Safeguards: - The 2023 BCEAO safeguards assessment found that the central bank continues to have well-established audit arrangements and a strong control environment. - The BCEAO has still to align its statute with changes in the 2019 cooperation agreement with France. - IMF capacity development priorities going forward (exact list): - i) enhancing governance and fiscal transparency, - ii) advancing climate reforms, - iii) improving treasury and debt management, - iv) strengthening both tax policy and revenue administration, - v) improving public investment management, - vi) enhancing macroeconomic and fiscal statistics. - Statistical and administrative priorities: - Timely production of quarterly national accounts data and the move towards the 2014 Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM) presentation. - INS will soon move towards producing GDP estimates based on annual chaining rather than fixed base year prices. - Authorities requested assistance with tools to improve the fiscal management of natural resources, to measure and analyze tax revenue gaps, strengthen property taxation, and evaluate fiscal risks associated with public-private partnerships. - Treasury and debt management measures noted: - The QPC of CFAF 550 billion ceiling extended to June 2026 (see above). - No new PPG external debt programmed into the current ECF due to the extension. ### Staff appraisal, macroeconomic outlook, and policy recommendations - Program performance and structural reforms: - Program performance under the ECF was broadly satisfactory as of end-December 2024 and end-March 2025. - All performance criteria and indicative targets were met, except the continuous performance criterion on the non-accumulation of new external arrears and the ITs related to the floor for the basic budget balance at end-December 2024. - Progress on structural reforms faced some delays, notably the revision of the general tax code. - The two reform measures expected for the 3rd RSF review were implemented. - Growth and inflation projections (exact figures): - Projected 6.6 percent GDP growth in 2025, largely driven by oil production operating near its full capacity of approximately 110 thousand barrels per day. - Average inflation expected to decrease to 4.7 percent in 2025, aided by a positive harvest. - Growth should average about 6.3 percent over the medium term. - Policy recommendations (exact emphases): - Implement a revenue-based fiscal consolidation strategy given tight financing conditions and elevated uncertainty. - Fiscal deficit adjustment path targeting the WAEMU's 3 percent of GDP criterion in 2025. - Mobilize domestic revenue through: revision of the general tax code, reductions in tax exemptions, and efforts to enhance property taxation. - Maintain momentum for digitalization reforms in tax administration, including continuing the deployment of SISIC and facilitating e-payments for taxes. - Operationalize the newly adopted oil revenue management strategy to promote transparency, reduce fiscal procyclicality, and strengthen fiscal buffers. - Enhance the quality and efficiency of public spending in health and education, including recruiting additional civil servants and integrating contractual teachers into the public sector payroll. - Continue public financial management reforms: progress towards the Treasury Single Account, digitalizing and decentralizing government payment orders, and simplifying the expenditure execution process. - Maintain a prudent debt policy; implement the arrears clearance plan; respect the zero ceiling on new non-concessional external debt. - Strengthen treasury management, including enhancing the presentation of the cash flow plan and integrating all cash resources and expenses. - Address financial sector vulnerabilities: - Ensure the bank that is not meeting the capital adequacy ratio requirements develops and implements a time-bound recapitalization plan in consultation with the Banking Commission. - Clear domestic debt service arrears and address payment delays to public sector suppliers to strengthen banks’ balance sheets and alleviate liquidity constraints. - Advance restructuring of the microfinance sector; accelerate consolidation and liquidate/resolve non-compliant institutions. - Strengthen governance and anti-corruption frameworks: - Continue reinstatement and full resumption of the Supreme Audit Institution’s activities and establish a collaborative framework with the CoLDEFF. - Amend the legal framework to mandate asset declarations by public officials. - Promote transparency and accountability in public procurement, including reinstating arbitration and regulation committees. - Accelerate implementation of remaining recommendations of the GIABA report to address shortcomings in the anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing framework. *Source: IMF staff report excerpt (Niger).* ### 55. Based on performance and commitments under the program, staff supports the ### 1nerea2025003 - 55. Based on performance and commitments under the program, staff supports the ### Program decision and Fund support - Staff supports the completion of the seventh review under the ECF arrangement and the third review under the RSF arrangement. - Staff supports the request for a waiver for the non-observance of the performance criterion on the accumulation of external payments arrears due to its temporary nature, the fact that the nonobservance was minor, and the corrective measures adopted by the authorities. - Staff supports the request for the extension, and the rephasing of the ECF arrangement. - Staff supports the disbursement of: - SDR 13.16 million under the ECF arrangement (eighth tranche), and - SDR 17.108 million under the RSF arrangement (third tranche). - Policies outlined in the attached MEFP are assessed as adequate to achieve the program’s goals. - Staff judges RSF reform measures remain achievable given the authorities’ strong commitment and the expected technical support from development partners. ### Recent economic developments (high-level findings) - Economic activity in the commerce and services sectors has gradually recovered since the lifting of sanctions. - Inflationary pressures continued to ease throughout the first quarter of 2025. - Broad money and credit to the economy started to recover by end-2024, reflecting a revival in economic activity. - Fiscal revenues continue to recover since July 2023, having increased substantially in 2025 Q1 mainly due to oil exports. - Growth in 2024 was essentially driven by consumption and investment, with strong contributions from the agriculture and industry sectors. ### Medium-term outlook (2020–30 summary findings) - Growth should remain robust, propelled by agricultural production and the tertiary sector. - Inflation should converge to the upper-limit of the WAEMU target band by end-2026. - The current account deficit is projected to narrow over the near term with higher oil exports. - Medium-term fiscal policy will be anchored by the regional deficit target. - Public debt should remain relatively contained given financing constraints. - The external debt service burden is projected to gradually decline over the medium term. ### Selected key statistics and projections (extracts from tables and figures) - Disbursement amounts supported: SDR 13.16 million; SDR 17.108 million. - GDP at current market prices (levels shown in Table 1, Billions of CFA francs): 11,879; 12,043; 13,305; 13,319; 14,608; 14,62715,89717,18918,58620,099 - Current account balance (Table 5, Billions of CFA francs): -830; -722; -540; -416; -645; -728; -608; -620; -715; -736 - Current account balance (Table 6, percent of GDP): -7.0; -6.0; -4.1; -3.1; -4.4; -5.0; -3.8; -3.6; -3.8; -3.7 - Exports, f.o.b. (Table 5, Billions of CFA francs): 1,103; 872; 1,997; 1,903; 2,144; 1,890; 2,088; 2,122; 2,124; 2,183 - Oil exports component (Table 5, Billions of CFA francs): 599; 508; 1,347; 1,287; 1,310; 1,181; 1,177; 1,177; 1,211; 1,228 - Balance on goods (percent of GDP, Table 6): -3.0; -2.7; 1.5; 1.7; 1.4; 0.4; 1.4; 1.2; 0.7; 0.8 - Total revenue (percent of GDP, Table 3): 8.3; 7.7; 9.4; 9.4; 10.0; 9.9; 10.3; 10.8; 11.0; 11.2 - Total expenditure and net lending (percent of GDP, Table 3): 15.0; 13.4; 14.6; 14.2; 15.0; 14.2; 14.6; 14.9; 15.0; 15.0 - Overall balance (commitment, percent of GDP, Table 3): -6.7; -5.7; -5.2; -4.8; -5.0; -4.4; -4.3; -4.1; -4.0; -3.9 - Basic fiscal balance excl. budget grants (percent of GDP, Table 3): -2.3; -3.4; -1.1; -1.3; -0.8; -0.9; -0.8; -0.7; -0.6; -0.5 - Broad money (annual percent change, Table 4): 6.8; 6.9; 13.6; 14.4; 11.7; 13.4; 8.7; 8.2; 8.1; 8.3 - Credit to the private sector (percent of GDP, memorandum, Table 4): 10.0; 10.2; 9.8; 10.5; 9.8; 10.9; 11.0; 11.0; 11.1; 11.1 - External debt-service ratio as percent of exports of goods and services (Table 1): 12.3; 10.0; 7.6; 8.8; 6.5; 6.9; 6.9; 7.4; 7.2; 5.7 - Total public and publicly-guaranteed debt (percent of GDP, Table 1): 48.4; 47.2; 45.6; 44.0; 44.7; 43.0; 42.6; 42.6; 42.6; 42.5 - Total arrears (Table 1): 1.7; 1.2; 0.0; 0.0; 0.0; 0.0; 0.0; 0.0; 0.0; 0.0 ### Fiscal operations and financing highlights - Table 2 (Financial Operations of the Central Government, levels in Billions of CFA francs) shows: - Total revenue (selected row): 990; 929; 1,247; 1,247; 1,468; 1,4421,; 6441,8522,0472,244 - Total expenditure and net lending (selected row): 1,784; 1,617; 1,939; 1,887; 2,196; 2,0832,; 3212,5592,7833,020 - Overall balance (commitment, selected row): -795; -687; -693; -640; -728; -641; -678; -707; -737; -776 - Financing (selected row): 800; 648; 693; 640; 728; 641; 678; 707; 737; 776 - Table 8a (Proposed Rephased Schedule of Disbursements Under the ECF Arrangement, 2021–26) lists the original and rephased disbursements and conditions, including the sequence of SDR tranches culminating in SDR 197.4 (150 percent of quota) total. *Source: Nigerien authorities; and IMF staff calculations and projections.* ### 19.5 percent ### 19.5 percent ### Key fiscal and macroeconomic findings and projections - GDP growth is estimated at 10.3 percent in 2024, driven by agriculture and oil exports. - Oil exports started in the first half of 2024, with 10.1 million barrels of crude oil exported via the port of Sème (Benin) by the end of 2024. - The current account deficit narrowed to 6 percent of GDP in 2024 from 13.9 percent in 2023. - The 2024 budget deficit is estimated at 4.3 percent of GDP, which was 0.2 percent of GDP higher than programmed. - Growth for 2025 is projected to remain robust at around 6.6 percent, supported by oil exports at full capacity of around 110,000 barrels per day. - The government projected a deviation of about one percentage point from the agreed fiscal deficit target of 3 percent of GDP for 2025 and is committed to adopting a supplementary budget to meet the program deficit target for 2025. ### Summary of projected external borrowing program (Table 10 highlights) - Total new borrowing (by sources): USD 764.5 million (percent 100) and USD 1,003.8 million (percent 100) — two columns shown in table. - Concessional debt (of which) USD 673.5 million (percent 88) and USD 829.9 million (percent 77). - Multilateral debt USD 668.2 million (percent 87) and USD 729.6 million (percent 76). - Bilateral debt USD 5.3 million (percent 1) and USD 13.4 million (percent 1). - Other 0.00 (percent 0.00). - Non-concessional debt (of which) USD 91.0 million (percent 12) and USD 128.8 million (percent 23). - Semi-concessional USD 91.0 million (percent 12) and USD 128.8 million (percent 23). - Commercial terms 0.00 (percent 0.00). - By Creditor Type: Multilateral USD 754.9 million (percent 99) and USD 938.1 million (percent 98). - Bilateral - Paris Club USD 4.4 million (percent 1) and USD 13.2 million (percent 1). - Bilateral - Non-Paris Club USD 5.3 million (percent 1) and USD 13.4 million (percent 1). - Uses of debt financing: Infrastructure USD 136.5 million (percent 18) and USD 65.4 million (percent 17); Social Spending USD 215.1 million (percent 28) and USD 289.3 million (percent 24); Budget Financing USD 298.4 million (percent 39) and USD 391.3 million (percent 35); Other USD 114.6 million (percent 15) and USD 39.0 million (percent 9). ### IMF obligations and indicators of capacity to repay (Table 11 highlights) - Fund obligations (existing credit) principal and charges for years 2025–2045 are presented in SDR millions; principal entries include: 41.5, 39.5, 50., 95.3, 56.8, 45.5, 34.2, 26.3, 10.5, 6.6, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 1.3 (sequence as in table). - Charges and interest exhibit annual small amounts starting 1.2, 1.3, 1., 3, etc., as tabulated. - Total obligations based on existing and prospective credit (SDR millions) for selected years: 42.8, 41.7, 53., 155.3, 59.0, 47.7, 40.4, 33.8, 18.0, 14.1, 13.5, 13.2, 11.7, 11.4, 11.2, 11.0, 10.8, 10.5, 10.3, 10.1, 5.2. - Memo items (selected): - Exports of goods and services (CFAF billions) include: 2,520; 2,487; 2,707; 2,797; 2,863; 2,971; 3,554; 3,780; 4,027; 4,291; 4,519; 4,768; 5,041; 5,336; 5,667; 6,002; 6,348; 6,685; 7,047; 7,437; 7,858. - External debt service (CFAF billions) include: 462; 387; 390; 414; 440; 440; 401; 424; 439; 452; 462; 511; 562; 641; 709; 780; 856; 938; 1,023; 1,106; 1,192. - Nominal GDP (CFAF billions) include: 13,319; 14,627; 15,897; 17,189; 18,586; 20,099; 21,731; 23,495; 25,403; 27,466; 29,696; 32,107; 34,714; 37,533; 40,581; 43,876; 47,439; 51,291; 55,455; 59,958; 64,827. - Tax revenue (CFAF billions) include: 1,102; 1,287; 1,462; 1,639; 1,815; 1,993; 2,212; 2,404; 2,609; 2,885; 3,098; 3,370; 3,669; 3,998; 4,438; 4,854; 5,303; 5,735; 6,228; 6,807; 7,502. - Quota (SDR millions) constant at 131.6 across years. - Outstanding IMF credit (based on existing and prospective drawings) in SDR millions (selected years): 440.9; 410.2; 359.; 4306.3; 249.5; 204.0; 165.8; 134.2; 118.5; 106.6; 95.3; 84.1; 74.3; 64.4; 54.5; 44.6; 34.8; 24.9; 15.0; 5.2; 0.0. - Net use of IMF credit (SDR millions) across 2025–2045: 53.7; -30.7; -50.9; -53.1; -56.8; -45.5; -38.2; -31.6; -15.8; -11.8; -11.3; -11.2; -9.9; -9.9; -9.9; -9.9; -9.9; -9.9; -9.9; -9.9; -5.2. ### Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM) — major risks, likelihood, impact, and recommended policy responses (Table 12) - Trade policy and investment shocks - Relative Likelihood: High - Impact if realized: High - Recommended Policy Response: Broaden tax base, improve revenue mobilization capacity, and strengthen fiscal buffers. Improve investment climate to attract FDI. - Regional conflicts (e.g., Middle East, Ukraine, Sahel, East Africa) and terrorism - Relative Likelihood: Medium - Impact if realized: High - Recommended Policy Response: Implement domestic revenue mobilization reforms to create fiscal space. Advance structural reforms to enhance resilience to external shocks. Enhance the efficiency of social spending. - Commodity price volatility (supply/demand volatility, conflicts, OPEC+, AE energy policies, green transition) - Relative Likelihood: Medium - Impact if realized: High - Recommended Policy Response: Implement targeted social measures to protect the most vulnerable. Bolster domestic food production. Strengthen fiscal buffers. - Deepening geoeconomic fragmentation (protectionism, fragmentation of tech and payments systems) - Relative Likelihood: High - Impact if realized: High - Recommended Policy Response: Promote regional economic integration initiatives and technological diffusion. Accelerate market reforms to improve competitiveness and support trade diversification. - Deterioration of security situation in the Sahel and neighboring countries - Relative Likelihood: Medium - Impact if realized: High - Recommended Policy Response: Allow for a more gradual fiscal consolidation path to accommodate high priority security spending. Increase engagement with the international community on security issues. - Extreme climate events (floods, droughts, rising temperature) - Relative Likelihood: Medium - Impact if realized: High - Recommended Policy Response: Implement targeted social measures, improve management of water resources, and strengthen planning and budgeting of climate-related spending. - Constrained financing conditions due to high interest and rising risk premia - Relative Likelihood: Medium - Impact if realized: High - Recommended Policy Response: Create fiscal space by seeking concessional financing and enhancing domestic revenue mobilization. - Reduced donor support - Relative Likelihood: High - Impact if realized: High - Recommended Policy Response: Strengthen implementation capacity to ensure high returns from investment projects. Implement measures to enhance efficiency of spending. - Persistence of political instability and social discontent - Relative Likelihood: Medium - Impact if realized: High - Recommended Policy Response: Accelerate governance reforms and strengthen the social safety net. ### Reform Measures under the RSF (Table 13 highlights) - Reform Area 1: Strengthening planning and budgeting of climate-related spending - RM1: Government to validate a methodology for tagging climate-related expenditures (CBT). Type: PFM-Climate. Indicative deadline: ECF 6th review (End September 2024). Technical assistance: IMF. Status: Implemented. Link: Improved fiscal and external sustainability; reduces fiscal costs when climate risks materialize. - RM2: Government to apply the CBT framework for at least 4 sectoral ministries in their 2025 budget and share results with IMF staff. Type: PFM-Climate. Indicative deadline: ECF 7th review (End March 2025). Technical assistance: IMF. Status: Implemented. - RM3: Government to amend the budget circular for 2026 budget to include instructions on identifying climate-related allocations. Type: PFM-Climate. Indicative deadline: ECF 8th review (End August 2025). - Reform Area 2: Improve sensitivity of public investment management to climate issues - RM4: Government to develop and publish a guide defining methodology for climate vulnerability assessments of public investment projects and programs. Type: PFM-Climate. Indicative deadline: ECF 6th review (End September 2024). Technical assistance: IMF and WB. Status: Implemented. - RM5: Government to amend decree no. 0041 (November 03, 2021) to require integration of climate change aspects in public investment management and publish it. Type: PFM-Climate. Indicative deadline: ECF 7th review (End March 2025). Technical assistance: IMF. Status: Implemented. - RM6: Government to publish feasibility studies, including climate vulnerability assessments, for at least three public investment projects. Type: PFM-Climate. Indicative deadline: ECF 8th review (End September 2025). - Reform Area 3: Enhancing disaster-informed fiscal planning and management - RM7: Publish a guide for analysis of fiscal risks related to natural disasters on website of the Ministry of Economy and Finance. Type: PFM-Climate. Indicative deadline: ECF 4th review (End - September 2023). Technical assistance: IMF. Status: Implemented with a delay. - RM8: Publish a statement on fiscal risks, including natural disasters, on the Ministry website. Type: PFM-Climate. Indicative deadline: ECF 6th review (End December 2024). Status: Implemented. - RM9: Adopt order to establish focal points (at least two persons) in relevant directorates of three selected ministries to carry out DRM responsibilities. Type: DRM. Indicative deadline: ECF 4th review (End October 2023). Technical assistance: World Bank. Status: Implemented with a delay. - RM10: Publish flood and drought risk assessments in key exposed areas on the National DRM Data Platform: www.risques-niger.ne. Type: DRM. Indicative deadline: ECF 5th review (End April 2024). Technical assistance: World Bank (PIDUREM project). Status: Implemented. - Reform Area 4: Promoting renewable energy sources - RM11: Create a new window within the FONAP that provides technical and financial assistance to improve bankability and implementation of SME renewable energy projects. Type: Green energy. Indicative deadline: ECF 4th review (End October 2023). Status: Implemented with a delay. Expected impacts: Increased productivity, growth, investment, net exports; improved BOP resilience to shocks; reduced long-term reliance on expensive fossil fuel imports. ### Program implementation, commitments, and monitoring (from Letter of Intent, Niamey, June 25, 2025) - The government will adopt the Resilience Program for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (PRSP) covering 2024-2026 as the reference framework for socio-economic and governance policies, structured around four pillars: (i) strengthening security and social cohesion; (ii) promoting good governance; (iii) developing production bases for economic sovereignty; and (iv) accelerating social reforms. - Implementation of the two IMF arrangements (ECF and RSF) is described as broadly satisfactory; main performance criteria and indicative targets have been met, with the exception of the continuous performance criterion on the non-accumulation of new external arrears on external debt payments. Budget balance floor targets were not met at end-December 2024. All RSF-supported reform measures have been implemented and are already in effect. - The government commits to consult IMF staff in advance regarding proposed changes to the policies in the MEFP and to provide timely information as required in the Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU). *Source: International Monetary Fund.* ### 5. Given the generally satisfactory results achieved to date despite the challenges faced ### 5. Given the generally satisfactory results achieved to date despite the challenges faced ### IMF requests, disbursements, and waivers - Request the conclusion of the seventh review under the ECF and the disbursement of an amount equivalent to SDR 13.16 million. - Request the conclusion of the third review under the RSF arrangement and the disbursement of the third tranche of SDR 17.108 million (10 percent and 13 percent of our quota for the ECF and RSF arrangements, respectively). - Request a waiver for the non-observance of the continuous performance criterion of non-accumulation of new payment arrears on external debt; new arrears were temporarily accumulated after the completion of the 6th review of the ECF arrangement but have been fully cleared. - Requested extension and rephasing of the ECF arrangement: - A 12-month extension of the ECF arrangement until December 2026. - Rephasing of disbursements for reviews 8–10: SDR 4.3428 million for the 8th review, SDR 4.3428 million for the 9th review, and SDR 4.4744 million for the 10th review. - Purpose of the requested disbursements and extension: - Cover balance of payments financing needs. - Meet needs associated with adapting to the adverse effects of climate change. - Allow sufficient time to support: (i) additional reforms to further consolidate recent progress in governance, particularly in the oil sector; (ii) anchoring of sound fiscal policies; and (iii) management of persistent balance of payment pressures stemming from continued tight financing conditions. ### Transparency commitment - Agreement to the publication of the IMF staff report, this letter of intent, the MEFP, and the TMU on the IMF website. *Attachment I. Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies of Niger* --- ### Recent macroeconomic developments (2024–mid‑2025) - GDP growth in 2024: 10.3 percent (recovery driven by agriculture and crude oil exports). - Average annual inflation in 2024: 9.1 percent (above the WAEMU target of 3 percent). - BCEAO policy settings as of 2024: - Minimum bid rate for liquidity injection: 3.50 percent. - Marginal lending facility rate: 5.50 percent. - Reserve requirement ratio for banks: 3.0 percent. - Monetary aggregates and external assets: - Annual growth rate of money supply in Niger at end-December 2024: 6.9 percent. - Net foreign assets decline: -31 percent. - Domestic credit growth: 14 percent. - External sector (2024): - Current account deficit: CFAF 721.6 billion in 2024, down from CFAF 1,415.9 billion in 2023, or about 6 percent of GDP. - Capital and financial account: CFAF 600 billion in 2024, down from CFAF 1,116.7 billion in 2023, or 5 percent of GDP. - Decline in FDI attributed to completion of pipeline construction and deterioration of financing conditions. - Fiscal outturns (2024): - Revenue outturns: CFAF 929.2 billion (program target CFAF 989.5 billion; gap CFAF 60.3 billion). - Total expenditures: CFAF 1,616.5 billion (projected CFAF 1,784 billion). - Increase in domestically financed investments due to 2024 floods. - Arrears (as of June 24, 2025 and June 25, 2025): - Stock of arrears on external debt decreased from CFAF 47.6 billion to CFAF 15.1 billion. - Arrears on domestic debt service decreased from CFAF 99.7 billion to about CFAF 69.5 billion. - Temporary new arrears to France after 6th review: about CFAF 4.3 billion; these were cleared as of June 25, 2025. - Banking sector (end‑December 2024): - Solvency ratio of all banks: 7.8 percent (WAEMU standard: 11.5 percent). - Non-performing loans ratio: 28 percent (WAEMU average: 8.7 percent in 2023). - Five out of fourteen banks do not comply with the prudential liquidity requirement. ### Performance under the ECF and RSF programs - Quantitative criteria and continuous performance criteria at end‑December 2024: - All quantitative criteria and continuous performance criteria met except the continuous performance criterion on non-accumulation of new external debt service arrears. - Net domestic financing remained below its target. - Continuous performance criteria on the non-concessional debt ceiling and the net present value of external public debt met. - Indicative targets (end‑December 2024 and end‑March 2025): - Met: social spending, ratio of exceptional spending, cash revenue floor on all target dates. - Not met: budget balance floors at end‑December 2024, partly due to floods and strengthened security measures for pipeline protection. - Structural benchmarks and continuous structural benchmarks: - Continuous structural benchmarks implemented (list provided to IMF staff of newly granted/renewed exemptions since January 2025; publication of public procurement plans, tender notices, and final contract award results since September 2024; publication of feasibility studies for investment projects > CFAF 5 billion; publication of beneficial owners of companies awarded contracts by private treaty except defense/security; quarterly budget execution reports including oil revenue performance). - Structural benchmarks not met by end‑March 2025: adoption of a decree determining the formula for the reference price of the oil stabilization fund (committee created; World Bank TA provided); publication of IMF Diagnostic Governance Assessment mission report postponed (mission moved to September 2025; report publication postponed to end March 2026). - RSF reform measures for third review: all implemented, including: - Application of climate budget tagging methodology to at least four sector ministries in their 2025 budget and sharing results with IMF staff (RM #2). - Amendment of Order No. 041 of November 3, 2021, to require incorporation of climate change aspects in investment project analysis and publication on the Ministry website (RM #5). ### Macroeconomic framework: 2025 and medium term - 2025 projections: - GDP growth projected at 6.6 percent (driven by agriculture and oil). - Average inflation projected at 4.2 percent (down from 9.1 percent in 2024). - Medium-term outlook (2026–2030): - Growth rate expected to average 6.3 percent (drivers: expansion of agricultural irrigation infrastructure, increase in oil, uranium, and gold production, implementation of economic reform program). - Medium-term inflation expected to fall below the WAEMU 3 percent target. - Current account deficit expected to average 4 percent over the period. ### Fiscal policy and revenue measures for 2025 - Fiscal consolidation objective: bring the budget deficit down to 3 percent of GDP in 2025. - A supplementary budget will be adopted to align the 2025 budget with the WAEMU convergence criteria; a regulatory text-approved roadmap describes the timetable for adoption. - DGD measures: - Application of the statistical levy at the rate of 1 percent on all exempt and non-exempt products (except those imported by embassies and UN organizations). - Introduction of a new Tax on Temporary Admissions at the rate of 1 percent, including on extensions and transfers of temporary admissions. - Collection of the 3 percent statistical export levy on agricultural, forestry, and pastoral products. - DGI measures: - Increase minimum tax rate for certain activities from 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent. - Extension of VAT base to e-commerce. - Extension of excise duty to mineral water (15 percent), non-alcoholic energy drinks (20 percent), and plastic bags (10 percent). - Change in rates for certain tariff items. - Increase corporate income tax rate for non-residents from 16 percent to 20 percent. - Increase income tax rate on residential leases: from 10 percent to 12 percent for rented dwellings and from 5 percent to 6 percent for dwellings occupied free of charge and secondary dwellings. - Taxation of capital gains on the sale of mining permits at a rate of 20 percent. - Adoption of the new General Tax Code (CGI): - Commitment to adopt the CGI in the first semester of 2025. - All seven (7) books of the CGI reviewed and approved by the Technical Committee and the ad hoc National Advisory Council on Tax Policy. - A roadmap for adoption approved by regulatory text. - DGI IT and administrative reforms: - SISIC operationalized; deployment ongoing with 19 departmental entities not yet covered; SISIC connected to DGD and Directorate General of the Budget systems. - e-SISIC portal (active since 2019) in recovery phase; improved portal being developed via the DGI Mobile Payment project (mobile application and USSD system) to enable electronic tax compliance certificates, electronic NIF issuance, and online payments (mobile money, bank cards, transfer agencies). - VAT Control System (SCTVA): interface between SyGMEF and SISIC to cross-check certified invoice data; project initiated October 2020, ongoing with taxpayer register cleaning. - Fiscal marking of products subject to excise duties: regulatory texts and terms of reference for technical partner developed. - Online taxpayer registration and directory management project: expected fully operational in 2026 with AFTRITAC West support; aims to broaden tax base and clean taxpayer register through partnerships with telephone providers, banks, NIGELEC, NDE, and CNSS. - e-LIASSE electronic tax filing project: platform being created to allow online filing of financial statements and balance sheets, facilitating data sharing with the INS and BCEAO. *Attachment I. Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies of Niger* ### 16. The government plans to implement an ambitious project for the geolocation of real ### 16. The government plans to implement an ambitious project for the geolocation of real estate and land ### Geolocation and cadaster - Create a cadaster to improve the estimation of real estate values, and to accelerate the registration of properties and owners. ### Debt policy, SONIBANK, and debt-management capacity - Intend to maintain a prudent debt policy and prioritize concessional loans and grants to finance development. - In April 2025, the government consulted with the IMF on the continuous performance criterion for the non-concessional debt ceiling and requested an exception for the macrocritical SONIBANK liquidity support project. - Ongoing discussions with the West African Development Bank (BOAD) for a loan of approximately CFAF 50 billion to support SONIBANK (Société Nigérienne de Banque). - SONIBANK holds 21.5 percent of total banking sector assets; it is systemically important and facing asset-quality deterioration and liquidity pressures partly due to late payments and arrears associated with public procurement. - Initiative aims to support SONIBANK, alleviate broader liquidity pressures, revive the Nigerien economy, and support SMEs. - Efforts to strengthen capacities of the institutional framework for public debt management and monitoring will be stepped up to better manage associated risks and costs. ### Supplier arrears and cash management - At end-March 2025, total commitments to suppliers amounted to CFAF 132.9 billion, including CFAF 42.1 billion in arrears. - Since January 2025, CFAF 8.6 billion of arrears was cleared during the first quarter; efforts will continue throughout the year. - Actions supported by a securitization operation financed by the World Bank designed to clear all supplier arrears and inject liquidity into the banking sector. - Reform prepared under the ECF program to strengthen cash management within the public treasury; government committed to enhancing the presentation of the cash flow plan by reflecting all cash resources and cash outflows (new structural benchmark #8). ### Oil revenue management and fiscal insulation - Decree adopting the Oil Revenue Management Strategy issued on January 21, 2025, with objectives including: (i) establishment of a macroeconomic and fiscal framework tailored to oil revenue management; (ii) incorporation of oil revenue management in budget preparation and execution; (iii) establishment of a stabilization fund; (iv) budgeting and implementation of the stabilization fund in accordance with existing financial legislation; (v) strengthening transparency and fiscal accountability. - Government committed to adopting by decree the formula to calculate the reference price for the stabilization fund; formula developed with World Bank technical assistance and to be adopted by decree as soon as possible (structural benchmark #1). - Plan to set a target for the budget balance excluding oil revenues in the 2027 budget; TOFE will be amended to incorporate this indicator (new structural benchmark #7). - Will publish oil contracts signed with oil companies (new structural benchmark #6). ### Public administration recruitment and wage policy - Total workforce of 93,552 employees all categories combined at end-April 2025. - Recruitment plan to hire 7,654 additional civil servants, on average, per year over the period 2025–2026. - Commitment to keep the total wage bill to tax revenue ratio within the WAEMU convergence criteria of less than 35 percent. - Directorate General of Taxes to undertake a major recruitment drive; about 831 new civil servants expected to be recruited this year at the Ministry of the Economy and Finance. ### Budget execution reforms, AE/CP, and Treasury Single Account (TSA) - AE/CP (Commitment Authorizations / Payment Credits) budgeting extended to all Ministries in 2025; AE/CP dual accounting system piloted in 2022 and expanded in 2023. - Ongoing efforts to fully digitalize the public expenditure chain; digitalization of payment authorizations in effect since January 2025; completion of digitalization of commitments scheduled for 2026 enabling suppliers to generate and submit invoices electronically. - TSA implementation ongoing; gradual closure of bank accounts opened by public entities during sanctions period continuing; plans to extend TSA scope to local authorities by grouping them geographically. - Operation to identify accounts held by public entities at commercial banks launched on March 10, 2025; it will provide an overview of the accounts and their balances as of January 31, 2025. ### Digitalization of budget and payroll systems - Digitalization of tools to produce the Multi-Year Fiscal and Economic Programming Paper (MPEP), including CBMT and CDMT, expected to be finalized by end-December 2025. - solde2budget platform launched in 2021 links public payroll to the budget and records expenditure-chain data in the Treasury’s information system. - Development of an Integrated Human Resource and Payroll Management System (SIGRHEP) to extend the budgetary and accounting information system and connect government payroll and career management systems. ### Improving quality and effectiveness of public expenditure - Commitment to fully automate the public expenditure chain by end-2026. - Plans to extend the presence of public accountants to local authorities; letters sent to regional governors and training programs for DGTCP accountants initiated. ### Social protection: Unified Social Registry (RSU) - According to the EHCVM 2021-2022 published in 2023, the RSU covers approximately 672,000 poor and vulnerable households. - "This corresponds to about 6 million individuals out of over 10 million poor and vulnerable people in the country." - Main goal: register all poor and vulnerable households by 2030. - Challenges: (i) financial constraints and difficulties securing a dedicated budget line for the RSU; (ii) challenges to agree on a unique identifier for each individual and household; (iii) making the RSU a dynamic database connected with other data systems and updated regularly. ### Education sector measures - Ongoing replacement of straw hut classrooms with durable structures in 2025 to reduce training costs. - Of the 1,059 classrooms launched in September 2014, 112 had been completed by December 31, 2024. - Performance contracts signed with institutions including DREN/A/PLN, FAFPA, and ONEF to strengthen spending effectiveness. - Certificate of Primary School Completion (CFEPD) exam reinstated; budget of CFAF 3.3 billion allocated for implementation. ### Health sector measures - Reforms include: (i) a 50% reduction in out-of-pocket healthcare costs and provision of free childbirth and dialysis services; (ii) recruitment of 164 specialists to reduce waiting times and improve quality; (iii) modernizing infrastructure by building 135 Type II Integrated Health Centers (CSI) equipped with clean water and electricity and acquiring scanners and imaging equipment for select hospitals. ### Governance and anti-corruption - Establishment of the Commission for Combating Economic, Financial, and Tax Crime (CoLDEFF); CoLDEFF recovered about CFAF 57 billion related to illicitly obtained funds during its first year of operation. - Order 2024-60 adopted on December 31, 2024, reinstating the Supreme Audit Institution. - Plan to amend legal framework to establish asset declaration obligations in line with international principles (structural benchmark #4): (i) politically exposed persons submit asset declarations; (ii) declaration of assets held directly or indirectly by beneficiaries; (iii) online publication of declarations; (iv) proportionate penalties for non-compliance or misrepresentation. - Plan to re-establish arbitration and regulatory committees for public procurement (structural benchmark #5) and amend procurement legal framework to enable collection of beneficial ownership information. ### Anti-money laundering and transparency - Order adopted to transpose into national law the new WAEMU Community Law on AML/CFT/FP. - Six draft decrees to strengthen Niger's AML/CFT/FP system are in process of adoption. - Implementation of GIABA mutual evaluation recommendations ongoing; CENTIF initiated periodic consultations across sectors. - National terrorism financing risk assessment and sector-specific assessments undertaken (banking, real estate, non-profit, mining). - Further reforms needed to improve transparency on beneficial owners and ensure risk-based supervision of AML/CFT reporting entities. ### Financial sector development and inclusion - Continue reforms to improve public-private dialogue and digitalization of operations to strengthen private sector development. - Ongoing process to adopt a decree instituting a charter for SMEs to improve competitiveness and access to financing. - Assessment of the National Strategy for Inclusive Finance planned to align with BCEAO's updated regional strategy; commitment to promote mobile money and digital services. - Financial Inclusion Development Fund (FDIF) and National Support Fund for SMEs and SMIs (FONAP) remain operational with five windows each; 2024: FDIF established a fifth window for Islamic finance; FONAP set up a fifth window to support SMEs in renewable energy. - Framework for synergistic consultation being developed among FONAP, FDIF, and banks. ### Microfinance sector restructuring - ARSM and BCEAO revoked the license of TAANADI; it is being wound up. - ASUSU restructuring progressing with agreements after certification of financial statements for 2020-2022; 2023 and 2024 financial statements currently being certified. - Union des Caisses Mutuelles du Niger remains under provisional administration. - Transposition into national law of WAEMU Community Law on Regulation of Microfinance (adopted December 2023) underway. ### Climate change policies, NDC, and climate budgeting - Revising Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to be more ambitious on adaptation and mitigation, inspired by new estimates in agriculture, forestry, energy and other land-related sectors using new climate projections. - Roadmap for NDC update developed to enable Technical and Financial Partners to support via the NDC partnership platform; status report on implementation of the second-generation NDC prepared. - Progress in conceptualizing the National Adaptation Plan (PNA) with new elements on migration, security, and water; funding to update the PNA not yet secured. - Draft of Niger's first Biennial Transparency Report to be submitted to CNEDD and MHAE in March 2025. - Digital MRV platform being finalized with World Bank support. - Strengthening planning and budgeting for climate-related spending using the climate budgeting methodology (CBM) approved in September 2024. - CBM working group conducted a pilot application with six sector ministries for the 2025 budget law in April (RM2); methodology to be updated and published with tagging results. - Budget circular to obligate the six sector ministries to carry out CBM for the 2026 budget (RM4). - Ministry of the Economy and Finance drafted an order to establish a CBM working group led by the Director General of the Budget (to be published). - Climate-resilient infrastructure and Public Investment Management (PIM) - Revised PIM legislation (Order No. 0041 of 2021) to integrate climate aspects; to be published on the Ministry of the Economy and Finance website by end-June 2025 (RM5). - World Bank-supported PIM guide defining functions, responsibilities, expected results, and climate considerations will be published. - Climate vulnerability assessment methodology for public investment projects approved in October 2024 (RM4). - Selection of three projects in agriculture, infrastructure, and energy for climate vulnerability analysis as part of project assessment (RM6). *Source: Chapter text from content unit 1nerea2025003.* ### 41. The reforms already carried out to promote disaster risk management and low-cost ### 1nerea2025003 - 41. The reforms already carried out to promote disaster risk management and low-cost energy transition under the RSF are beginning to bear fruit. ### Progress on climate-related fiscal risk analysis and tools - Deepened analysis of climate-related macroeconomic risks in the 2026-2028 Macroeconomic and Fiscal Framework Note, incorporating IMF observations and comments. - Analysis accounts for effects of natural disasters (floods and droughts) on the economy, the budget, and debt. - As a pilot country, simulated a baseline scenario and a climate risk scenario in the Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT) to: - assess effects of climate change on debt relative to the baseline scenario; and - estimate extent of adjustments needed to get back on track. - Continued improvement of medium-term macroeconomic climate modelling with World Bank support to integrate climate projections and transmission channels (human capital, investment, etc.). - Major remaining challenge: assessment of the financial costs related to damage and losses during flood and drought cycles. ### Disaster risk management institutional reforms and projects - Launched institutional reform merging the Ministry of Humanitarian Action with the Ministry of Public Health, Population, and Social Affairs; further strengthening of sectoral capacity for disaster risk management will continue in key ministries, in line with Order No. 013 of June 2024 (RM9). - Post-2024 floods focus on rebuilding climate-resilient infrastructure in fourteen municipalities under the World Bank-funded Integrated Urban Development and Multi-sectoral Resilience Project (PIDUREM). - PIDUREM resources include building institutional capacity for monitoring and evaluation of urban planning, including use of the website and information from the Flood and Drought Risk Assessment (RM10). ### Promotion of renewable energy and institutional arrangements - Adopted regulation to create a one-stop shop for promotion of renewable energy projects (RM11) in 2024. - Created a consultation platform to promote renewable energy in September 2024; Ministry of Energy nearly completed identification of focal points, including volunteers in some municipalities. - Established four thematic working groups: regulatory framework, capacity building, access to finance, and management of partnerships with TFPs. - Conducted two workshops on climate finance to carry out a needs assessment. - With World Bank support and in collaboration with BAGRI and the National Council of the Environment for Sustainable Development, development of Green Climate Fund concept notes is continuing. - Significant challenges remain: lack of technical expertise and insufficient financing for SME projects in the renewable energy sector. ### Climate finance mobilization and NDC investment needs - New NDC outlines an overall estimated investment of US$9.9 billion (US$990.7 million/year) over 10 years: - 63 percent of the investment is for adaptation. - 32 percent is for mitigation. - Persistent investment gap remains to meet mitigation and adaptation goals. - Progress on accreditation renewals: - BAGRI's accreditation with the Adaptation Fund and accreditation with the Green Climate Fund are expected to be achieved in June and July. - Prepared nine concept notes (with AfDB, ANABEL, and GIZ support) for an amount of US$2 billion; these will be submitted to the NDC Committee for approval. - Delivered training on procedures and project development for the Green Climate Fund and the Adaptation Fund, including a three-day workshop organized with multiple partners and attended by 100 participants. - Workshop emphasized: building on existing plans (National Adaptation Plan and Nationally Determined Contributions), understanding Global Climate Fund procedures, and strengthening institutional coordination and collaboration. ### ECF/RSF program monitoring framework and timelines - ECF program monitoring based on performance criteria (Table 1) and structural benchmarks (Tables 2 and 3) as defined in the Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU); authorities will submit data and statistics as set out in the TMU. - Joint semiannual reviews by the IMF Executive Board will monitor ECF- and RSF-supported programs: - Semi-annual reviews under the ECF based on performance criteria at end-June and end-December 2025 and end-June 2026, and on indicative targets at end-September 2025 and end-March and end-September 2026. - Reviews under the RSF based on assessment of implementation of reform measures set out in Table 4. ### Key quantitative program figures and notable statuses (as presented) - NDC investment estimate: US$9.9 billion (US$990.7 million/year) over 10 years; 63 percent adaptation; 32 percent mitigation. - Nine concept notes amount: US$2 billion. - Workshop attendance: 100 participants. - PIDUREM: rebuilding climate-resilient infrastructure in fourteen municipalities. - RM1–RM11 Reform measures: Several marked "Implemented", "Implemented with a delay", or pending per Table 4 (e.g., RM1 Implemented; RM2 Implemented; RM4 Implemented; RM5 Implemented; RM11 Implemented with a delay). - Structural benchmark examples and statuses (selected): - Publish procurement plans, tender notices and final contract award results on the Public Procurement Portal — Continuous, monitored on a bi-annual basis — Met in March 2025. - Provide Fund staff semi-annually with a tally of newly granted or renewed tax exemptions — Continuous, monitored on a bi-annual basis — Met in March 2025. - Adopt a decree determining the formula for calculating the reference price for the oil stabilization fund and create a committee of experts — End-March 2025 — Not met. - Adoption of the revised, simplified General Tax Code (CGI) by the Council of Ministers — End-April 2025 — Not met. - Publish the Governance Diagnostic Assessment (GDA) report — End-October 2025 — To be postponed to end-March 2026. *Source: IMF staff and Niger authorities, as presented in the chapter.* ### 1. This Technical Memorandum of Understanding defines the performance criteria and ### 1nerea2025003 - 1. This Technical Memorandum of Understanding defines the performance criteria and ### Overview - Defines the performance criteria and indicative targets of Niger's program under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for the period from Q4 2024 to Q3 2026. - Performance criteria and indicative targets for March 2024 through June 2026 are set out in Table 1 of the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) attached to the Letter of Intent of June 25, 2025. - Structural benchmarks are outlined in Tables 2 and 3. - Sets out data-reporting requirements for program monitoring. ### Definitions (key legal and operational terms) - Government: central government of the Republic of Niger; excludes political subdivisions, public entities, or central bank with separate legal personality. - Debt: a current (not contingent) liability created under a contractual arrangement requiring payments in assets or services; primary forms: (i) loans, (ii) suppliers’ credits, (iii) leases. For leases, debt equals the present value (at inception) of all lease payments expected during the agreement, excluding payments necessary for operation, repair, or maintenance. - Arrears, penalties, and judicially awarded damages arising from failure to pay contractual obligations that constitute debt are debt. Failure to make payment on an obligation not considered debt under this definition (e.g., payment on delivery) is not debt. - Present value (PV) of new public and publicly guaranteed external debt contracted: discounts at a five percent annual rate the future payment stream, except for loans with a negative grant element, in which case the PV is set equal to the value of the loan. PV is based on the loan amount contracted in a given year, independent of disbursement timing. - Domestic payment arrears: domestic payments owed by the government but not paid; include committed and authorized fiscal year expenditures not paid within 90 days. - External payment arrears: external payments due but not paid. - Government obligation: any financial obligation of the government accepted as such by the government (including any government debt). ### A. Quantitative Performance Criteria — Net Domestic Financing of the Government - Definition: - Net domestic financing of the government = (i) net bank credit to the government + (ii) net nonbank domestic financing of the government. - Net nonbank domestic financing includes: (i) change in stock of government securities (Treasury bills and bonds) issued in CFAF on the WAEMU regional financial market and not held by resident commercial banks; (ii) change in balance of Treasury correspondents’ deposit accounts; (iii) change in balance of various deposit accounts at the Treasury; (iv) change in stock of claims on the government forgiven by the private sector; (v) payments resulting from PPP contracts; (vi) net income from privatizations. - Net bank credit to the government equals balance of government claims and debts vis-à-vis national banking institutions. Government claims include cash holdings of the Nigerien Treasury, secured obligations, deposits with the central bank, and deposits of the Treasury (including regional offices) with commercial banks. Government deposits with commercial banks are excluded insofar as they are used solely to finance externally financed capital expenditure. - Government debt to the banking system includes assistance from the central bank (excluding net IMF financing), the CFAF counterpart of the 2009 General SDR Allocation and the 2021 General SDR Allocation, assistance from commercial banks (including government securities held by the central bank and commercial banks) and deposits with the CCP (postal checking system). - The BCEAO scope includes all government administrations; BCEAO calculates net bank credit to the government and the amount of Treasury bills and bonds issued in CFAF on the WAEMU regional financial market. - Net nonbank financing of the government is calculated by the Nigerien Treasury. - Quarterly targets: - The 2024 and 2025 quarterly targets concern cumulative amounts since the beginning of 2024 and 2025 respectively until the date selected for the performance criterion or indicative target. - Adjustments: - Ceiling on net domestic financing subject to adjustment if disbursements of external budgetary support net of external debt service, external arrears payments, and net financing from the IMF fall short of program projections. - If disbursements of external budgetary support fall short at end of each quarter, corresponding quarterly ceilings will be raised pro tanto, up to a maximum of CFAF 30 billion. - Ceiling also adjusted for payments of the float related to previous year's expenditure, capped at a maximum of CFAF 75 billion. - Reporting requirement: - Detailed data on domestic financing of the government will be provided monthly, within six weeks after the end of each month. ### New External Payment Arrears on Government Debt - Definition: - Government debt: outstanding debt contracted or guaranteed by the government. - External arrears: obligations not paid on due dates, considering contractual grace periods. - Program commitment: government undertakes not to accumulate new external payment arrears on its debt (including Treasury bills and bonds issued in CFAF on the WAEMU regional financial market), except arrears arising from debt being renegotiated with external creditors, including Paris Club and other bilateral official creditors. - Reporting requirement: - Data on the stock, accumulation, and repayment of external payment arrears will be provided monthly, within six weeks after the end of each month. ### Present Value of New Public and Publicly-Guaranteed External Debt Contracted from the Beginning of the Relevant Calendar Year - Contract and guarantee timing: - Debt is deemed contracted or guaranteed when signed by the government, adopted by the parliament by law and ratified by the President of the Republic. For monitoring, deemed contracted or guaranteed on date of ratification. - Guarantee arises from any explicit legal obligation of the government to service a debt in event of nonpayment by the debtor. - Definition of external debt: - Debt contracted or serviced in a currency other than the franc of the Financial Community of Africa (CFAF), except borrowing from BOAD (considered external debt despite local-currency denomination). - Scope of performance criterion (PC): - Ceiling applies to PV of all new external debt (concessional or non-concessional) contracted or guaranteed by the government, including commitments contracted or guaranteed for which no value has been received. - Exclusions: (a) short-term supplier or trade-related credit with maturity up to three months, (b) rescheduling agreements, (c) IMF disbursements. - Currency denomination for program purposes: - Value in CFAF of new external debt of 2024 and 2025 calculated using exchange rates for end October 2024 and end April 2025 in IMF’s IFS database. - Exchange Rates (end October 2024): - CFAF/SDR 802.6946 - U.S. Dollar/SDR 1.33163 - Euro/SDR 1.22489 - Japanese Yen/SDR 204.406 - U.K. Pound Sterling/SDR 1.02611 - U.A.E. Dirham/SDR 4.87684 - Exchange Rates (end April 2025): - CFAF/SDR 782.1631 - U.S. Dollar/SDR 1.35611 - Euro/SDR 1.1924 - Japanese Yen/SDR 193.273 - U.K. Pound Sterling/SDR 1.01528 - U.A.E. Dirham/SDR 4.98033 - PV Calculation: - PV of new external debt calculated by discounting all projected disbursements and debt service payments (principal and interest) using a program discount rate of 5 percent and accounting for loan conditions (projected disbursements, maturity, grace period, payment schedule, front-end fees and management fees). - PV is calculated using the IMF “DSA template,” based on loan amount and above parameters. - For loans with grant element zero or less, PV set equal to nominal value. - Reference rate rules: - For variable-rate debt of form benchmark + fixed spread, PV calculated using a program reference rate plus the fixed spread (in basis points) specified in the debt contract. - Program reference rate for the six-month USD Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is 0.04 percent and will remain fixed for the duration of the program. - Fixed spreads over six-month USD SOFR for interest rates in other currencies (fixed for program duration): 1. The spread of six-month Euro LIBOR over six-month USD SOFR is -56.4 basis points. 2. The spread of six-month JPY LIBOR over six-month USD SOFR is -9.0 basis points. 3. The spread of six month GBP Sterling Overnight Interbank Average (SONIA) over six-month USD SOFR is 2.5 basis point. 4. For interest rates on currencies other than Euro, JPY, and GBP, the spread over six-month USD SOFR is 15 basis points. 5. Where the variable rate is linked to a benchmark other than the six-month USD SOFR, a spread reflecting the difference between the benchmark rate and the six-month USD SOFR (rounded to the nearest 50 basis points) will be added. - Reporting requirement: - Authorities will inform IMF staff of any planned external borrowing and the conditions before loans are contracted or guaranteed and will consult with staff on potential debt management operations. ### New Non-Concessional External Debt Contracted or Guaranteed by the Central Government - Definition: - External debt contracted or guaranteed by the central government defined as above. - Concessionality: - Debt is concessional if grant element ≥ 35 percent. - Grant element = (nominal value - PV) / nominal value, expressed as percentage of nominal value. - PV at contracting calculated by discounting future stream of payments; for grant element ≤ 0, PV set equal to nominal value. - Discount rate: unified discount rate of 5 percent set forth in Executive Board Decision No. 15248-(13/97). - For variable-rate debts of benchmark + fixed spread, PV calculated using program reference rate plus fixed spread. Program reference rates: - Six-month USD SOFR: 2.73 percent - Six-month EURIBOR: 2.00 percent - These rates will remain fixed for program duration. - Where variable rate linked to benchmark other than six-month USD SOFR and six-month EURIBOR, a spread reflecting the difference between the benchmark rate and the six-month USD SOFR will be added. - Reporting requirement: - Government will report any new external borrowing and its terms to Fund staff before external debt is contracted or guaranteed by the government. ### B. Indicative Targets - Definitions: - Cash revenue: indicative target; includes tax, nontax, and special accounts revenue; excludes proceeds from settlement of reciprocal debts between government and enterprises and non-cash revenue. - Basic budget balance: total revenue (cash revenue + non-cash revenue) minus total fiscal expenditure excluding externally financed investment expenditure but including HIPC-financed expenditure. - Two indicative targets on basic budget balance: one including budget grants and one excluding budget grants. - Adjustments: - If disbursements of external budgetary grants are lower than projected at end of each quarter (as quantified in the performance criteria table), the quarterly floor of the basic budgetary balance including grants will be reduced pro rata, up to a maximum of CFAF 30 billion. - Basic budget balance target may be adjusted by an amount equivalent to 0.5% of GDP, expressed in billions of CFA francs, in 2025 to account for security and priority social spending needs. This adjustment is contingent on mobilization of additional concessional financing beyond the amount initially projected at conclusion of the 7th review under the ECF program. - Social spending: - Floor on social spending is an indicative target. - Social spending defined as expenditures from Government's own resources allocated to social sectors and those directly benefiting poor households, children, young people and women in vulnerable situations, the elderly, the disabled, victims of armed conflict and trafficking, refugees or displaced persons, and the unemployed. - These expenditures will be coded in the budget according to UNICEF recommendations for tracking. - Limit on expenditures paid through exceptional procedures (without prior commitment), excluding debt service payments and expenditures linked to tax exemptions: 5 percent of total authorized expenditures during the quarter for which the target is assessed. - Codification of Social Spending Activities (Budget Activities Codes): - Non-Social 00 - Social-Health 11 - Social-Education 12 - Social-Social Protection 13 - Social-Nutrition 14 - Social- Hydraulics/Sanitation 15 - Social-Others 19 - Reporting requirements: - Information on basic budget revenues and expenditures: monthly, within six weeks after the end of each month. - Information on social expenditures: quarterly, within six weeks after the end of each quarter. - Information on exceptional expenditure: quarterly, after six weeks after the end of the quarter. ### Additional Information for Program Monitoring — Government Finance (required data and frequency) - Authorities will provide to IMF staff: - Detailed monthly estimates of revenue and expenditure, including priority expenditure, payment of domestic and external arrears, and breakdown of customs, DGI, and Treasury revenue. - The Table of Government Financial Operations with comprehensive monthly data on domestic and external financing of the budget, and changes in arrears and Treasury balances outstanding; monthly, within six weeks after the end of each month. - Comprehensive monthly data on net nonbank domestic financing: (i) change in stock of government securities issued in CFAF on WAEMU regional financial market and not held by resident commercial banks; (ii) change in balance of various deposit accounts at the Treasury; (iii) change in stock of claims on the government forgiven by the private sector. - Quarterly data on social expenditure (statement of appropriations approved, disbursed, and used). - Quarterly reports on budget execution, including rate of execution of poverty-reducing expenditure and use of appropriations by line ministries (National Education, Public Health, Equipment, Agriculture, Livestock). - Monthly data on Treasury balances outstanding, by reference fiscal year, with breakdown of maturities of more than and less than 90 days. - Monthly data on effective debt service (principal and interest) compared with programmed maturities provided within four weeks after the end of each month. - List of external loans contracted in process of negotiation and projected borrowing in the next six months, including financial terms and conditions. ### D. Monetary Sector (reporting requirements) - Monthly information to be provided within eight weeks following the end of each month: - Consolidated balance sheet of monetary institutions and, where applicable, consolidated balance sheets of individual banks. - Monetary survey, within eight weeks following the end of each month, for provisional data. - Borrowing and lending interest rates. - Customary banking supervision indicators for banks and nonbank financial institutions (where applicable, same indicators for individual institutions may also be provided). *Source: Technical Memorandum of Understanding (IMF).* ### 37. The authorities will provide IMF staff with the following information: ### 37. The authorities will provide IMF staff with the following information: ### Balance of Payments Reporting - Any revision of balance of payments data (including services, private transfers, official transfers, and capital transactions) whenever they occur. - Preliminary annual balance of payments data, within six months after the end of the reference year. - Table entries for balance of payments: - Balance of payments: Annual — End-year + 6 months - Balance of payments revisions: Variable — At the time of the revision. ### Real Sector Reporting - Disaggregated monthly consumer price indexes, within two weeks following the end of each month. - The national accounts, within six months after the end of the year. - Any revision of the national accounts. - Table entries for real sector: - National accounts: Annual — End-year + 6 months - Revisions of the national accounts: Variable — 8 weeks after the revision - Disaggregated consumer price indexes: Monthly — End-month + 2 weeks ### Structural Reforms and Other Data to Be Shared - Any study or official report on Niger’s economy, within two weeks after its publication. - Any decision, order, law, decree, ordinance, or circular with economic or financial implications, upon its publication or, at the latest, when it enters into force. - Any draft contract in the mining and petroleum sectors, including production and sales volumes, prices, and foreign investment. - Any agreement with private sector stakeholders having economic or financial repercussions for the government, including in the natural resources sector. ### Government Finance, Monetary, and External Debt Reporting (selected items and deadlines) - Net government position vis-à-vis the banking system: Monthly — End-month + 6 weeks. - Complete monthly data on net nonbank domestic financing (including changes in stock of government securities issued in CFAF on the WAEMU regional financial market and not held by resident commercial banks; change in the balance of various deposit accounts at the Treasury; change in the stock of claims on the government forgiven by the private sector): Monthly — End-month + 6 weeks. - Provisional TOFE, including a breakdown of revenue (DGI, DGD and DGTCP) and expenditure, including the repayment of domestic wage and nonwage arrears, as at end-1999, and the change in Treasury balances outstanding: Monthly — End-month + 6 weeks. - Data on Treasury balances outstanding (RAP), by reference fiscal year (total and RAP at more than 90 days): Monthly — End-month + 6 weeks. - Monthly statement of Treasury correspondents’ deposit accounts: Monthly — End-month + 6 weeks. - Execution of the investment budget: Quarterly — End-quarter + 6 weeks. - Table of fiscal expenditure execution, unified list expenditure, and HIPC-financed expenditure; Treasury accounts trial balance: Monthly — End-month + 6 weeks. - Monthly statement of the balances of accounts of the Treasury and of other public accounts at the BCEAO: Monthly — End-month + 6 weeks (provisional); End-month + 10 weeks (final). - Petroleum products pricing formula, petroleum products tax receipts, and pricing differentials: Monthly — End-month + 6 weeks. - Consolidated balance sheet of monetary institutions and, where applicable, consolidated balance sheets of individual banks: Monthly — End-month + 8 weeks. - Borrowing and lending interest rates: Monthly — End-month + 8 weeks. - Banking supervision prudential indicators: Quarterly — End-quarter + 8 weeks. - Stock and repayment of external arrears: Monthly — End-month + 6 weeks. - Breakdown of all new external loans signed and projected borrowing, including the financial terms and conditions: End-month + 6 weeks. - Table on the monthly effective service of external debt (principal and interests), compared with the programmed maturities: Monthly — End-month + 4 weeks. ### Recent Economic Developments, Program Performance, and Outlook — Key Figures and Findings - GDP growth rate: 10.3 percent in 2024, driven by crude oil exports and an exceptional agricultural harvest. - Current account deficit: narrowed to 6 percent of GDP in 2024 from 13.9 percent in 2023. - Inflation: averaged 9.1 percent in 2024. - Performance under the ECF program: All performance criteria were met at end-December 2024 and end-March 2025, except for the continuous criterion on non-accumulation of new external arrears. - Fiscal measures taken: reduced non-priority spending; increased taxation and improved compliance; feasibility studies required for investment projects of more than CFA 5 billion. - Public financial management milestones: - Adoption and beginning implementation of a fiscal framework for the management of oil resources. - Publication of budget execution reports, including oil-related revenue use. - Increased transparency in public procurement. - Debt management: efforts to resolve legacy arrears and arrears accumulated following the 2023 events; committed to clearing external debt arrears in 2025. - Governance: Supreme Audit Institution now fully functional with all members sworn in. - Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF): all reform measures for the third review implemented to improve climate preparedness and leverage climate finance. ### Outlook and Risks — Quantified Projections - Growth projection: 6.6 percent in 2025; converging towards 6.3 percent growth rate for 2026-2030. - Inflation projection: recede to 4.2 percent in 2025 before converging towards the regional target. - Downside risks highlighted: security, geopolitical stability, extreme climate events, tight financing conditions, capacity constraints. ### Reforms Agenda and Policy Measures (rest of 2025 and medium-term) - Fiscal policy objectives: - Anchor consolidation by the region’s 3 percent GDP deficit target and debt limits. - Revenue mobilization reforms: revision of the general tax code; improvements in revenue administration; advancements in property taxation. - Introduce an electronic tax filing system. - Establish a dedicated unit for property tax collection. - Implement oil revenue management plan: set up an oil stabilization fund; target for non-oil revenue mobilization. - Keep the wage bill ratio below the regional norm of 35 percent of GDP. - Improve expenditure effectiveness, increase social and poverty-reduction spending, recruit teachers, build schools in rural areas, and implement a National Health Insurance Scheme. - Reinstate the treasury single account; implement program budgeting; leverage digitalization. - Debt sustainability measures: - Mobilize domestic revenues and adopt prudent debt policies. - Clear all external debt arrears in 2025 and address supplier debt per the arrears’ clearance plan. - Strengthen cash management, extend maturities, and closely monitor budget execution to reduce risk of debt distress from high to moderate. - Monetary and financial sector measures: - BCEAO reduced rates by 25 basis points to support economic activity. - Mobilize resources with World Bank and BOAD support to shore up liquidity and asset quality, including for SONIBANK. - Address supplier arrears to reduce non-performing loans and reverse deposit withdrawals. - Regional requirement to double minimal capital adequacy for banks by 2026 to strengthen balance sheets. - Implement regional financial inclusion strategy via FONAP and FDIF; enhance regulatory framework for non-bank financial institutions; promote mobile banking and financial literacy. - Structural and governance reforms: - Strengthen governance and anti-corruption frameworks; improve coordination between CoLDEFF and the Supreme Audit Institution. - Improve AML/CFT frameworks by transcribing recently adopted regional regulation into national law. - Implement climate commitments: update Nationally Determined Contributions and advance adaptation and mitigation strategy. - Seek to leverage climate finance; accreditation of Niger’s Agriculture Bank with the Adaptation Fund and the Green Climate Fund to support climate resilience projects. ### Administrative Actions and Timing (selected) - Revised General Tax Code adopted through ordinance number 2025-22 signed by President Tiani on July 10, 2025. - Supplementary budget adopted through ordinance number 2025-21 signed by President Tiani on July 10, 2025; aligns the 2025 fiscal deficit to the WAEMU convergence criteria of 3 percent of GDP. - Statements and internal dates referenced: - July 10, 2025 (ordinances adoption dates). - July 14, 2025 (statement by Mr. Ouattara Wautabouna and Mr. Abdoulaye Tall). - Scoping mission visited Niamey in June 2025; main IMF Governance Diagnostic mission scheduled for September. *Source: Excerpt from the IMF staff report and supplementary information provided by the authorities (Niger).* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1nerea2025003.pdf_