## 1rwaea2025002-source-pdf

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [1rwaea2025002-source-pdf](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1rwaea2025002-source-pdf.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1rwaea2025002-source-pdf.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1rwaea2025002-source-pdf.pdf.json)

---

### Executive summary: context, program, and reform agenda
- Context and recent developments:
  - Growth has averaged 6–9 percent over two decades, supported by exports and infrastructure investment.
  - Close IMF engagement through the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), and Standby Credit Facility (SCF).
  - Focus shifting to financing priorities under the Second National Strategy for Transformation (NST-2, 2024–29), including New Kigali International Airport (NKIA) and RwandAir expansion (partner: Qatar Investment Authority).
  - Delivery of NST-2 requires substantial resources while safeguarding debt sustainability, strengthening domestic revenue mobilization, and advancing inclusive, climate-resilient growth.
  - External and climate shocks increased borrowing and pushed up the debt trajectory relative to expectations at the start of the PCI.
  - Buffers are expected to come under pressure from financing needs and imports caused by commitments to invest in strategic infrastructure and increased pension contributions until 2030.

- Program performance and Article IV:
  - All end-June 2025 quantitative targets were met.
  - NBR conducted competitive auctions to enhance price discovery (end-September reform target met).
  - Draft amendment to strengthen the NBR Law implemented with delay; important shortcomings with respect to NBR autonomy preserved in the revised draft and warrant further work.
  - PCI supported: anchoring the fiscal framework, implementing forward-looking monetary framework, mitigating pandemic scars, and building resilience.
  - RSF financing in 2022-23 supported climate PFM, public investment, and disaster risk management; SCF financing in 2023 provided a temporary cushion after natural disasters.
  - Article IV focus: (i) fiscal and external sustainability through stronger revenues, SOE oversight, and PFM reforms; (ii) monetary and exchange rate policies to maintain price stability and resilience; (iii) structural reforms on women’s economic participation, disaster resilience, export competitiveness, and climate-related financial risks.
  - Staff support completion of the sixth PCI review; authorities’ commitment to maintain fiscal and external sustainability while rebuilding buffers warrants continued Fund support.

- Policy recommendations (high level):
  - Fiscal: continue fiscal consolidation anchored in revenue mobilization, expenditure rationalization, better SOE risk management; strengthen domestic revenue mobilization; implement more effective controls over capital expenditures and fiscal risks; limit accumulation of foreign exchange reserves through concessional debt.
  - Monetary/exchange rate: adopt proactive, data-driven monetary policy and greater exchange rate flexibility.
  - PFM and SOE oversight: improve SOE oversight; conduct stress tests for high-risk SOEs; forward-looking financial assessments of five SOEs with mitigation measures; implement SOE governance code aligned with OECD 2024 standards; publish pipeline of appraised major projects (over RWF 15bn); implement spending rationalization strategy.
  - Financial sector: strengthen MPC communication; publish macro projections; expand monetary and financial statistics; finalize FX markets diagnostic study and revise exchange rate calculation methodology; approve/roll out GMRA roadmap and signatories; launch mobile platform for government securities issuance; conduct supplementary competitive FX auctions.
  - Social protection and resilience: finalize roll-out of dynamic social registry to cover all VUP beneficiaries and subsidized CBHI enrollees.

*Executive Summary, Rwanda: IMF Article IV Consultation and PCI review (mission meetings held in Kigali from September 29 thru October 10, 2025).*

### Recent economic outcomes and key statistics
- Growth and labor:
  - Real GDP grew by 7.2 percent in 2024 and the first half of 2025 (rebased GDP series).
  - Contributions: robust growth in services, construction, and coffee exports; consumption, public investment, and traditional exports positive; private investment contracted.
  - Unemployment rate: 13.4 percent in Q2 2025, a 3.4 percentage points improvement y/y.
  - Female unemployment: 15.3 percent in Q2 2025; youth unemployment: 15.4 percent in Q2 2025.

- Inflation:
  - NBR target range: 5±3 percent.
  - Headline inflation: 7.3 percent y/y in September 2025 (from 7.1 percent in August).
  - Core inflation: 8.9 percent y/y in September 2025 (from 7.8 percent in August).
  - Instantaneous headline inflation: 9.6 percent y/y in September (from 8.4 percent a year earlier).
  - Instantaneous core inflation: 12.6 percent y/y in September (from 4.3 percent a year earlier).
  - Quarterly headline inflation averaged 7.2 percent in 2025Q3.

- Fiscal outcomes FY24/25 (selected figures preserved verbatim):
  - FY24/25 fiscal deficit was RWF 84 billion higher than expected at the fifth review but unchanged in relative terms at 5.5 percent of GDP due to GDP rebasing.
  - Revenue: 4,285 RWF bn (21.4 percent of GDP) in the PCI 5th Rev. column; 4,174 RWF bn (19.4 percent of GDP) actual.
  - Taxes: 3,106 RWF bn (15.5 percent of GDP) vs. 3,065 RWF bn (14.2 percent of GDP).
  - Grants: 626 RWF bn (3.1 percent of GDP) vs. 1,152 RWF bn (2.9 percent of GDP).
  - Expense: 3,550 RWF bn (17.7 percent of GDP) vs. 3,417 RWF bn (15.9 percent of GDP).
  - Net acquisition of nonfinancial assets: 1,674 RWF bn (8.4 percent of GDP) vs. 1,772 RWF bn (8.2 percent of GDP).
  - Overall fiscal balance: -1,094 RWF bn (-5.5 percent of GDP) vs. -1,178 RWF bn (-5.5 percent of GDP).
  - Fiscal year GDP: 20,025 (PCI 5th Rev.) vs. 21,512 (Actual).

- Financial sector:
  - Banking sector loan growth: 15.4 percent as of 2025H1.
  - Microfinance loan growth: 20.8 percent in 2025H1 vs. 23.5 percent in 2024.
  - Bank NPL ratio: 2.6 percent in 2025H1 (from 3.1 percent at end-2024).
  - MFI NPL ratio: 3.4 percent in 2025H1.
  - Banking sector remained highly profitable with regulatory capital well above minimum requirements.

- External sector and reserves:
  - Current account deficit widened in 2025H1 due to robust import demand.
  - Rwandan franc depreciated about 3 percent against the US dollar through end-June 2025 (compared to 3.7 percent over same period in 2024).
  - International reserves rose to 4.8 months of prospective imports at end-June 2025, supported by private and public forex inflows (excluding RSF disbursements where noted).

### Debt dynamics, DSA results, and NKIA/RwandAir financing
- Public and PPG debt:
  - PPG external debt rose to 74.2 percent of GDP at end-2024 (after rebasing).
  - Rwanda’s public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio increased by 44.0 percentage points over the last decade.
  - Total debt stock in 2024: 10,687.8 (US$ mn); External: 8,564.9 (US$ mn); Domestic: 2,122.9 (US$ mn).
  - Nominal GDP (US$ million): 15,058 (2024); 16,080 (2025); 17,499 (2026).

- Debt-carrying capacity and risk classification:
  - Composite Index (CI) = 3.17 in the LIC-DSF; CI rating: Strong (cut-off 3.05).
  - Overall assessment: debt sustainable with moderate risk of external and public debt distress; limited space to absorb shocks.
  - Program debt anchor: target to converge to 65 percent of GDP by 2033 under the program’s consolidation path.

- NKIA and RwandAir financing and impacts:
  - Total expected NKIA costs: US$2.6 billion through 2029.
  - RwandAir expansion: US$550 million through 2029.
  - Government financing commitments: US$1.12 billion in equity contributions and US$80 million to clear existing RwandAir debts (around 8 percent of GDP in total).
  - Baseline staff assumption: nearly US$800 million in external commercial borrowing over 2026–30; around US$1.4 billion in FDI from QIA over same period.
  - Peak overall public debt projected at 79.1 percent of GDP by 2026 under current baseline.
  - Projected impact of rebasing: nominal GDP up 6.1 percent in 2024; real GDP growth for 2024 revised from 8.9 percent to 7.2 percent.

- DSA stress-test findings (selected highlights preserved):
  - Natural disaster tailored test (1-in-100 flood): assumed damages 11.2 percent of physical capital; required external financing to replace damages 17.9 percent of GDP; under the natural disaster shock PV of public debt-to-GDP breaches higher levels (e.g., peaks shown).
  - Baseline PV of public debt-to-GDP and PV of PPG external debt-to-GDP presented with breach risks under some stress tests.
  - Debt service-to-revenue and debt service-to-exports ratios increase under shocks; one-time breaches expected around major bullet maturities (e.g., 2031 Eurobond amortization).

### Fiscal policy, revenue measures, and public financial management
- Revenue mobilization and tax package:
  - Objective: tax-to-GDP ratio of 17.0 percent by FY29/30.
  - Compensatory tax package: 0.4 percent of GDP, gazetted May 29 with most measures effective July 2025; measures include VAT on mobile phones, increases in fuel levy and vehicle registration fees, excise increases, import duty on cosmetics, reinstatement of VAT on hybrid vehicles, gambling tax (implemented in September).
  - Comprehensive tax package: 0.5 percent of GDP over FY25/26–FY29/30 including VAT on fuels and transportation services, environmental levy, higher capital gains tax, tourism tax, motor vehicle user charge, VAT on select financial services, digital services tax, sunset clauses on VAT exemptions, repeal of corporate tax holidays.

- Pension reform and expenditure implications:
  - Pension contribution rates doubled to 12 percent effective January 1, 2025 (shared equally employer/employee); scheduled to increase by two percentage points each year from 2027, reaching 20 percent by 2030.
  - Base broadened from basic to gross salary; pension benefits raised.
  - Direct cost to budget: 0.2 percent of GDP in FY24/25 and 0.4 percent in FY25/26; rising to around 0.5 percent of GDP once contributions reach 20 percent.
  - Wage bill target: 2.8 percent of GDP over medium term.

- PFM and SOE reforms:
  - OPFM implementation proceeding; Ministerial Order for full implementation awaiting Cabinet approval (expected December).
  - IFMIS rollout nearly complete; primary schools remaining rescheduled to June 2027.
  - Published pipeline of appraised major projects (over RWF 15 billion) and annual project selection criteria.
  - Commitment to improve reporting of contingent liabilities, make project appraisal documents public, and publish multi-year project costs.
  - SOE governance: Presidential Order gazetted August 28, 2024; SOE corporate governance code approved in line with OECD 2024 Guidelines.
  - SOE privatizations: three fully privatized (Prime Cement, Bella Flowers, Cogebanque); Huye Animal Feeds pending Cabinet approval; 30 retained under state management.
  - Government subsidies in 2024 to REG, WASAC and RwandAir: 1.2 percent of GDP; guaranteed loans across several entities about 1.7 percent of GDP.
  - SOE stress tests and forward-looking assessments conducted with IMF TA for five SOEs; plan to scale up Portfolio Oversight Unit staffing.

### Financial sector resilience, macroprudential policy, and climate-related financial risks
- Macroprudential and supervisory stance:
  - Persistent rapid credit growth warrants close monitoring of household and small business credit.
  - NBR stepped up monitoring of borrower-level financial metrics; recommendation for borrower-level stress testing and additional capital buffers under Pillar 2.
  - Suggested macroprudential tools: tighten loan-to-value (LTV) limits and introduce debt-service-to-income (DSTI) limits.

- Market and operational developments:
  - Full GMRA implementation in June 2025 strengthened liquidity management and transmission.
  - Central Securities Depository law adopted May 26, 2025; GMRA rollout and signing by banks underway.
  - NBR revised official exchange rate calculation methodology; transition completed end-July 2025.
  - Supplementary competitive FX auctions conducted September 24–25, 2025 (US$1 million each).

- Climate-related financial risk assessment (flood scenario focus):
  - Flood data aggregated to 416 Sectors; bivariate buckets used to match loan exposures and flood risk.
  - Under 2050 RCP 4.5 scenario, average expected flood depth at banking system level increases by about 25 percent relative to baseline.
  - Conditional on a 1-in-100 riverine flood event: in historical baseline total expected damages at bank level range between 1   percent to 2   percent of total loan books (spaces preserved as in source); average system damage rate increases by close to 30 percent moving to RCP 4.5.
  - Conclusion: direct damages likely manageable for banks under baseline and RCP 4.5, but indirect effects (economic disruption, infrastructure damage) could amplify systemic risks.
  - Recommendations: comprehensive climate risk analysis across hazards; collect granular geographic exposure data; facilitate banks’ access to standardized climate hazard data; build forward-looking scenario analysis capabilities.

### Structural reforms, inclusion, and social protection
- NST-2 priorities:
  - Job creation, export growth, education quality, public service delivery, reduction of stunting and malnutrition.
  - Cabinet approved high-level objectives August 2024.

- Gender, climate nexus, and inclusion:
  - Women hold over two-thirds of parliamentary seats and half of cabinet positions.
  - Women concentrated in agriculture and informal low-productivity sectors exposed to climate risks; female economic vulnerabilities highlighted.
  - Model simulations suggest enhancing women’s participation in higher-productivity sectors mitigates output losses, accelerates recovery, and increases tax revenue.
  - Priorities: expand access to credit, land, and training for women; improve early warning systems linked to dynamic social registry; ensure gender-disaggregated analysis in major fiscal decisions; leverage Climate Budget Tagging (CBT) and Gender Budget Tagging (GBT).

- Social protection and digital inclusion:
  - Dynamic social registry Imibereho rolled out February 2024 with 3,465,792 households registered (96.6 percent of total as of 2022).
  - Imibereho produced provisional targeting lists for VUP and CBHI; further integration of SRIS and DMIS planned.
  - Shock-adaptability emphasis: climate-smart public works and expanded emergency cash transfers.

- Green finance and Ireme Invest:
  - Ireme Invest Credit Facility approved loans totaling over US$22 million (mid-2025) to facilitate about US$100 million of investments over time.
  - Government commitment: US$40 million (including US$20 million equity injection into Development Bank in FY26/27).
  - Near-term pipeline estimates: green projects pipeline ~US$110 million over 2024-25; total committed loans US$50 million; disbursements US$5 million until September 2025.
  - Bottlenecks: capacity constraints at BRD and businesses for green investment preparation; emphasis on project preparation facility and technical assistance.

### Program monitoring, data, and capacity to repay
- Capacity to repay and IMF-related metrics:
  - Outstanding credit peaked at 383.8 percent of quota as of December 31, 2024, after full disbursement of RSF and SCF arrangements.
  - Peak credit outstanding equals 33.6 percent of gross international reserves or 5.3 percent GDP; significant portion long-term due to RSF financing.
  - Debt service to the Fund projected at 3.0 percent of revenues excluding grants in 2029.
  - External and overall risk of debt distress assessed as moderate.

- Data and reporting:
  - NISR rebased GDP to 2024 prices in late September 2025 (first rebasing since 2017); production approach released, expenditure-based estimates anticipated early 2026.
  - New Producer Price Index compilation system introduced.
  - Priority: expand fiscal reporting under GFS 2014 and timely publication of quarterly budget execution reports within 60 days of quarter-end.
  - Annex VI data reporting highlights latest observation dates (e.g., Exchange Rate latest observation 10/15/25; CPI 09/30/25; Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing — General Government 6/30/25).

- Program financing and assurances:
  - Program remains fully financed with firm commitments.
  - Financing assurances primarily concessional grants and loans from World Bank, Global Fund, AfDB, and bilateral partners.
  - Some declines in grants noted (e.g., US$110 million of required grants not materializing in FY25/26; US$5 million Belgium bilateral support cancelled).

### Risks, implementation issues, and recommended sequencing
- Key risks:
  - External downside risks: global commodity price volatility, geopolitical fragmentation, decline in aid flows, extreme weather events, adverse global financial market developments.
  - Domestic risks: slower domestic revenue mobilization, delayed fiscal consolidation due to NKIA/RwandAir spending, prolonged external adjustment.
  - Debt and liquidity risks: elevated gross external financing needs; single large bullet amortizations (e.g., 2031 Eurobond) increase market-financing risk.
  - Implementation risks: shortcomings in revised NBR law preserving government influence; delays in reprioritizing foreign-financed capital spending risk clustered investment initiatives; limited success in correcting external imbalances or preserving buffers under PCI.

- Recommended sequencing and policy priorities:
  - Maintain sustained fiscal consolidation anchored in revenue mobilization and spending prioritization; target reduction of deficit from 5.8 percent of GDP in FY25/26 to 3.0 percent of GDP by FY29/30.
  - Strengthen SOE oversight and transparency; publish pipeline of appraised major projects (over RWF 15bn) and enforce selection criteria.
  - Prioritize concessional and climate-related financing; pursue de-risking instruments for NKIA/RwandAir external financing.
  - Enhance monetary policy communication and data-dependent approach; preserve exchange rate flexibility and strengthen FX price discovery.
  - Scale up climate adaptation investments and integrate CB T and GBT into major fiscal decisions.
  - Improve fiscal and debt reporting, continue IMF TA-supported GFS Action Plan and work towards SDDS transition.

*Source: IMF staff report content provided in the supplied PDF excerpt.*

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### Context and Recent Developments
- Rwanda’s transformation over the past two decades has been underpinned by sustained economic growth and improved living standards.
- Growth has averaged 6–9 percent, driven by exports and infrastructure investment, and supported by improvements in health and education outcomes.
- Close engagement with the IMF through the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), and Standby Credit Facility (SCF) has helped preserve macroeconomic stability and resilience amid natural disasters and global headwinds.
- As the PCI finalizes, focus shifts to financing priorities under the Second National Strategy for Transformation (NST-2, 2024–29), including large infrastructure projects such as the New Kigali International Airport (NKIA) and expansion of RwandAir in partnership with Qatar Investment Authority.
- Delivering on NST-2 priorities will require substantial resources while safeguarding debt sustainability, strengthening domestic revenue mobilization, and advancing inclusive, climate-resilient growth.
- External and climate-related shocks increased borrowing to finance reconstruction and pushed up the debt trajectory relative to expectations at the start of the PCI. The recent expansion in large priority projects has further elevated the debt burden.
- Buffers are expected to come under pressure from financing needs and imports caused by commitments to invest in strategic infrastructure and increased pension contributions until 2030.

### Program Performance and Article IV
- Program performance: All end-June 2025 quantitative targets were met.
- Reforms and implementation:
  - The National Bank of Rwanda (NBR) conducted competitive auctions to enhance price discovery, meeting the end-September reform target.
  - The draft amendment to strengthen the NBR Law was implemented with delay; important shortcomings with respect to NBR autonomy were preserved in the revised draft and warrant further work.
- The PCI supported:
  - Anchoring the fiscal framework through credible fiscal consolidation that preserves space for development priorities.
  - Progress in implementing the forward-looking monetary framework.
  - Mitigating pandemic scars and building resilience to shocks.
- Complementary financing:
  - RSF financing in 2022-23 supported reforms in climate PFM, public investment, and disaster risk management.
  - SCF financing in 2023 provided a temporary cushion following natural disasters.
- Article IV consultation focus areas:
  - (i) Safeguarding fiscal and external sustainability through stronger revenues, SOE oversight, and PFM reforms.
  - (ii) Monetary and exchange rate policies to maintain price stability and resilience.
  - (iii) Structural reforms to enhance women’s economic participation, strengthen resilience to natural disasters, promote export competitiveness, and address climate-related financial risks.
- Staff support the completion of the sixth PCI review. The authorities’ strong reform commitment—including maintaining fiscal and external sustainability while rebuilding policy buffers—warrants continued Fund support.

### Policy Recommendations
- Fiscal policy:
  - Continue fiscal consolidation anchored in revenue mobilization, expenditure rationalization, and better SOE risk management to maintain debt sustainability while financing priority investments.
  - Strengthen domestic revenue mobilization and implement more effective controls over capital expenditures and fiscal risks.
  - Limit the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves through concessional debt.
- Monetary and exchange rate policy:
  - Adopt a proactive, data-driven monetary policy and greater exchange rate flexibility to contain inflation and absorb external shocks.
- Public financial management and SOE oversight:
  - Improve SOE oversight, conduct stress tests for high-risk SOEs, undertake forward-looking financial assessments of five SOEs with mitigation measures, and implement an SOE governance code aligned with OECD 2024 standards.
  - Publish a pipeline of appraised major projects (over RWF 15bn) with clear selection criteria and implement a spending rationalization strategy.
- Financial sector and market development:
  - Strengthen MPC communication and publish macroeconomic projections; expand monetary and financial statistics; finalize a diagnostic study of FX markets and revise exchange rate calculation methodology to reflect actual market transactions.
  - Approve and roll out a GMRA roadmap, with full signing by all banks; launch a mobile platform for government securities issuance; conduct supplementary competitive FX auctions.
- Social protection and resilience:
  - Finalize the roll-out of a dynamic social registry to cover all VUP beneficiaries and subsidized CBHI enrollees.

### Recent Economic Outcomes and Key Statistics
- Growth and labor:
  - Real GDP grew by 7.2 percent in 2024 and the first half of 2025 (rebased GDP series).
  - Contributions to growth: robust growth in services, construction, and coffee exports; consumption, public investment, and traditional exports contributed positively; private investment contracted.
  - Unemployment rate declined to 13.4 percent in Q2 2025, a 3.4 percentage points improvement y/y.
  - Unemployment remains elevated among women and youth, at 15.3 percent and 15.4 percent, respectively.
- Inflation:
  - NBR target range: 5±3 percent.
  - Headline inflation: 7.3 percent y/y in September 2025 (from 7.1 percent in August).
  - Core inflation: 8.9 percent y/y in September 2025 (from 7.8 percent in August).
  - Instantaneous headline inflation: 9.6 percent y/y in September (from 8.4 percent a year earlier).
  - Instantaneous core inflation: 12.6 percent y/y in September (from 4.3 percent a year earlier).
  - Quarterly headline inflation averaged 7.2 percent in 2025Q3, lower than projected given earlier tax reforms.
- Fiscal outcomes FY24/25:
  - FY24/25 fiscal deficit was RWF 84 billion higher than expected at the fifth review, but GDP rebasing kept it unchanged in relative terms at 5.5 percent of GDP.
  - Revenue: 4,285 RWF bn (21.4 percent of GDP) in the PCI 5th Rev. column; 4,174 RWF bn (19.4 percent of GDP) actual.
  - Taxes: 3,106 RWF bn (15.5 percent of GDP) vs. 3,065 RWF bn (14.2 percent of GDP).
  - Grants: 626 RWF bn (3.1 percent of GDP) vs. 1,152 RWF bn (2.9 percent of GDP). [table excerpt preserved as presented]
  - Expense: 3,550 RWF bn (17.7 percent of GDP) vs. 3,417 RWF bn (15.9 percent of GDP).
  - Net acquisition of nonfinancial assets: 1,674 RWF bn (8.4 percent of GDP) vs. 1,772 RWF bn (8.2 percent of GDP).
  - Overall fiscal balance: -1,094 RWF bn (-5.5 percent of GDP) vs. -1,178 RWF bn (-5.5 percent of GDP).
  - Fiscal year GDP: 20,025 (PCI 5th Rev.) vs. 21,512 (Actual).
- Financial sector:
  - Private credit growth: As of 2025H1, banking sector loan growth was 15.4 percent.
  - Microfinance loan growth: 20.8 percent in 2025H1 vs. 23.5 percent in 2024.
  - Bank NPL ratio: 2.6 percent in 2025H1 (from 3.1 percent at end-2024).
  - MFI NPL ratio: 3.4 percent in 2025H1.
  - Banking sector remained highly profitable with regulatory capital well above minimum requirements.
- External sector and reserves:
  - Current account deficit widened in 2025H1 due to robust import demand.
  - The Rwandan franc depreciated by about 3 percent against the US dollar through end-June 2025 (compared to 3.7 percent over the same period in 2024).
  - International reserves rose to 4.8 months of prospective imports at end-June 2025, supported by private and public forex inflows.

### Risks and Implementation Issues Highlighted
- Shortcomings in the revised draft NBR law preserved important weaknesses in central bank autonomy and warrant further enhancements to align with leading practices.
- Delays in reprioritizing foreign-funded capital spending risk clustered investment initiatives as development needs remain high and funding is readily available.
- Limited success in correcting external imbalances or preserving buffers under the PCI: financing needs, imports, and large priority projects elevated the debt trajectory and pressured buffers.
- Implementation of recommendations from the 2023 Article IV consultation has been satisfactory, but continued focus is needed on revenue, SOE oversight, PFM reforms, monetary and exchange rate policy, and structural reforms.

_Executive Summary, Rwanda: IMF Article IV Consultation and PCI review (mission meetings held in Kigali from September 29 thru October 10, 2025)._

### Box 2. Rebasing of GDP to 2024 Prices

### Box 2. Rebasing of GDP to 2024 Prices

### Rebasing process and scope
- The National Institute of Statistics (NISR) rebased the GDP to 2024 prices in late September.
- This is the first GDP rebasing since 2017, following a disruption of the standard three-year cycle due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Supply and Use (SUT) tables for 2024 were prepared, and previously published series were brought in line with the revised estimates for that year, with revisions extending back to 2017 to ensure continuity.
- To date, only the production approach has been released; publication of the expenditure-based estimates is anticipated in early 2026.

### Statistical and methodological changes
- Improvements in the methodology and reporting of the National Production and Expenditure Accounts were introduced.
- The methodology for estimation of the quarterly series was strengthened; in particular, the approach for estimating agricultural crop output was enhanced to take account of seasonal patterns and retroactively applied backward to 2013.

### Impact on key aggregates and indicators
- Rebasing led to the upward revision of nominal GDP and deflators.
- Nominal GDP in 2024 was revised upward by 6.1 percent compared to the previously published estimates (which had been estimated by extrapolation of the 2017 base).
- Deflators were predominantly revised upward over 2017–2024.
  - The most pronounced adjustment occurred in 2024—rising from 3.7 percent under the previous base to 8.2 percent following the rebasing.
- Real GDP growth for 2024 was revised downward from 8.9 percent in the previous series to 7.2 percent in the new base.

### Implications for data continuity and policy analysis
- Revisions extend back to 2017 to ensure continuity across series.
- Only the production approach is currently available; full reconciliation with expenditure-based estimates awaits the anticipated early 2026 release.
- The enhanced quarterly agricultural output estimation (seasonal adjustment, applied back to 2013) will affect historical quarterly dynamics used in policy analysis and forecasting.

*Source: Box 2. Rebasing of GDP to 2024 Prices (from the provided IMF content).*

### 19. The 2024 safeguards assessment concluded that the NBR’s safeguards framework is

### 1rwaea2025002-source-pdf - 19. The 2024 safeguards assessment concluded that the NBR’s safeguards framework is

### Safeguards assessment and central bank autonomy
- The 2024 safeguards assessment concluded that the NBR’s safeguards framework is generally strong, and operational autonomy is maintained in practice.
- Gaps were identified in the legal framework relative to the leading practices.
- In response, and in consultation with IMF staff, the authorities drafted amendments to the NBR Law for Cabinet submission to strengthen provisions on the mandate, aspects of financial and personal autonomy, and transparency and accountability (end-September RT, implemented with delay).
- The draft amendments:
  - Strengthen the NBR’s mandate and emergency liquidity assistance provisions, financial autonomy, and accountability and transparency.
  - Preserve potential for government influence by retaining public officials’ participation (albeit more limited) and voting rights in the Board and membership in various committees, including the MPC and the audit committee.
- Recommendation:
  - Future reforms should seek to address these issues and minimize the scope for potential government influence over NBR policymaking.

### External position, exchange rate, and reserves
- Continued real effective exchange rate adjustment is needed to support external adjustment.
- The pace of real effective exchange rate depreciation in 2025 has been mitigated by a slower pace of nominal depreciation, in part due to global developments and a weaker US dollar, as well as higher inflation in Rwanda relative to trading partners.
- Going forward, external adjustment should continue to be facilitated by real effective exchange rate depreciation towards a level more consistent with economic fundamentals and policies.
- As of 2024, Rwanda’s external position is assessed as substantially weaker than the level implied by fundamentals and desirable policies (see Annex V), reflecting the notable increase in the current account deficit which was exacerbated by external shocks over 2023–24.
- The level of gross international reserves is assessed to be near the midpoint of the minimum adequacy range.
- The balance of risks warrants prudency with NBR’s foreign currency interventions to mitigate pressures from external shocks, including tighter financial conditions and costlier external financing flows.
- Policy guidance:
  - External adjustment should be facilitated by greater exchange rate flexibility and price discovery.

### Authorities’ views on monetary policy
- The authorities reaffirmed their commitment to taking necessary measures to maintain inflation within the NBR’s target range.
- They emphasized vigilance in monitoring price developments and continued support for a flexible exchange rate regime as a cornerstone of monetary policy and a mechanism for safeguarding external buffers.
- The authorities highlighted recent FX auctions, offering banks an additional mechanism for sourcing foreign exchange.

### Financial sector policies and macroprudential stance
- Persistent rapid credit growth warrants close monitoring of household and small business credit to detect potential future deterioration in lender asset quality.
- In recent years, the macroprudential policy stance has not kept pace with strong credit expansion, especially in retail credit.
- Recommendation:
  - Based on enhanced monitoring through granular data on underwriting standards, a more proactive use of macroprudential tools would be warranted.
  - Macroprudential tools to consider include tightening loan-to-value (LTV) limits and introducing debt-service-to-income (DSTI) limits.
- Continuous oversight and borrower-level stress testing of large exposures would be beneficial.
  - SOEs account for a significant share of banks’ largest exposures, establishing a considerable bank-sovereign nexus.
  - The NBR has stepped up monitoring of borrower-level financial metrics; stress testing these metrics would further strengthen monitoring.
  - Given such vulnerability, additional capital buffers, including those required under Pillar 2, would help bolster banking system resilience.

### Climate-related financial risks and banking sector resilience
- The NBR’s guidelines on management of climate-related and environmental financial risks went into effect in late November 2023, with a phased-in implementation timeline.
- The guidelines are broadly in line with the Basel Committee’s “Principles for the Effective Management & Supervision of Climate-related Financial Risks.”
- Financial institutions are at early stages of capacity building and data collection; the majority had not yet incorporated climate-related risks into governance, strategies, risk management, and internal control frameworks.
- As part of phased-in implementation, most banks have submitted initial self-assessments focusing on exposures to relevant risks, materiality assessment, mitigating controls, and identifying data needs for monitoring and managing risks (Annex VIII).
- A comprehensive climate risk analysis covering all major climate hazards is needed to assess and monitor the exposure of the banking sector.
  - Heavy rainfall, floods, and landslides have been the most damaging hazards, with droughts also having significant local effects.
  - An exposure analysis indicates that potential losses from a 1-in-100 return riverine flood event are likely to be manageable for banks (Annex VIII), although flood-prone exposures are likely to increase under future climate scenarios.
- Recommendation:
  - Build forward-looking methodologies and scenario analysis capabilities.
  - NBR should collaborate with climate authorities and facilitate banking sector access to standardized climate hazard data.
- Review of banks’ self-assessments indicates moderate progress; additional efforts are needed to formalize governance processes, strengthen data infrastructure, and advance forward-looking risk evaluation.

### Structural reforms, climate and gender nexus, and export competitiveness
- Progress under RSF-supported program:
  - Rwanda introduced Climate Budget Tagging (CBT), adopted a green taxonomy, and operationalized the green investment facility, Ireme Invest.
  - As of mid-2025, the Credit Facility arm of Ireme Invest has approved loans totaling over US$22 million, which will facilitate total investments of about US$100 million over time.
  - Government commitment: US$40 million, including a US$20 million equity injection into the Development Bank in FY26/27.
  - Disbursements remain modest relative to pledges; continued progress in building a pipeline of bankable projects and expanding adaptation investments is critical.
- Beneficial ownership, AML/CFT and related reforms:
  - Since April 2023, companies are required to submit accurate and up-to-date beneficial ownership (BO) information, with sanctions for non-compliance and ongoing verification efforts.
  - Authorities are encouraged to harmonize legal definitions of BO and improve timely access to BO data for competent authorities.
  - The updated National ML/TF Risk Assessment from November 2024 triggered a comprehensive review of the National AML/CFT Strategy, which is expected to be finalized in 2026.
- Trade and export dynamics:
  - Despite growing export dynamism, the trade deficit remains persistently high due to sticky imports and brittle services exports.
  - Goods export growth has been driven largely by gold and re-exports, which raised import demand; services exports have stagnated with losses in ICT and transport offsetting gains in travel.
  - Structural impediments: high transport costs, limited connectivity, skill gaps, and prominence of SOEs.
  - Policy priorities: support private sector development by reducing barriers to entry, strengthen regional trade integration, improve infrastructure and interconnectivity, and leverage services such as travel and ICT for export growth.

### Gender, climate shocks, and policy priorities
- Rwanda leads globally in women's political representation, with over two-thirds of parliamentary seats and half of cabinet positions held by women.
- In economic activity, women remain concentrated in agriculture, informal sectors, and generally low-productivity sectors that are more exposed to climate risks.
- Women have lower earnings and limited asset ownership, leaving them more exposed to climate shocks and less able to absorb impacts.
- Model simulations suggest policies enhancing women’s participation in higher-productivity sectors can mitigate output losses, accelerate recovery, and increase tax revenue.
- Key priorities:
  - Expand access to credit, land, and training for women.
  - Improve early warning systems linked to the dynamic social registry.
  - Ensure gender-disaggregated analysis in major fiscal decisions.
  - Leverage Climate Budget Tagging (CBT) and Gender Budget Tagging (GBT) to prioritize resilience-enhancing investment.

### Program modalities, data, and capacity to repay
- Capacity to repay:
  - Outstanding credit peaked at 383.8 percent of quota as of December 31, 2024, following full disbursement of the RSF and SCF arrangements (Table 7).
  - Although the peak for credit outstanding is high—33.6 percent of gross international reserves or 5.3 percent GDP—a significant portion is long-term due to RSF financing.
  - Debt service to the Fund is projected to remain modest at 3.0 percent of revenues excluding grants in 2029.
  - External and overall risk of debt distress remain assessed to be moderate (see DSA).
- Data and statistics:
  - National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, supported by IMF TA, rebased the GDP to 2024 (Box 2).
  - A new Producer Price Index compilation system has been introduced.
  - Fiscal reporting has been affected by staff turnover, slowing GFS improvements and timeliness.
  - Priority: Expand fiscal reporting under GFS 2014, including timely publication of quarterly budget execution reports within 60 days of quarter-end.
  - An IMF TA-supported GFS Action Plan has been developed to address data delays, update public debt statistics, and maintain e-GDDS updates.
- Financing assurances and risks:
  - The program remains fully financed, with firm commitments secured for its remainder.
  - Most financing assurances come from concessional grants by the World Bank, Global Fund, and bilateral development partners, and concessional loans from the World Bank, AfDB, and other partners.
  - Uncertainties and risks to program implementation persist but are mitigated by the authorities’ strong ownership of the program.

### Staff appraisal and program performance
- Staff appraisal:
  - Rwanda is moving forward with ambitious development plans, supported by a robust economy, despite constrained policy buffers and protracted external imbalances.
  - The economy has maintained strong performance and resilience despite multiple shocks.
  - Inflation remains within the NBR’s target band despite a temporary increase since April 2025.
  - Construction of the New Kigali International Airport and RwandAir expansion, combined with increased foreign-financed capital spending and higher pension contributions, will reduce fiscal policy buffers even with higher revenues from the new tax package.
  - The current account deficit is projected to increase due to higher imports associated with construction of NKIA.
  - Recent GDP rebasing has lessened the reported debt deterioration versus the fifth review.
- Program performance:
  - Program performance has been strong under the 2022-25 PCI.
  - Except for one reform target, all quantitative and reform targets under the sixth and final review were met.
  - Progress was made in critical fiscal reforms and in monetary and financial sectors, expected to strengthen the foundation of macroeconomic policy.
  - The PCI has facilitated greater access to financing, particularly as the program nears completion, with a rise in project loans that are increasingly offered on less concessional terms.

*Source: IMF staff report content provided in the supplied PDF excerpt.*

### 39. Fiscal pressures persist, indicating a need for increased revenue mobilization and

### 39. Fiscal pressures persist, indicating a need for increased revenue mobilization and

### Fiscal pressures, public investment, and debt outlook
- Fiscal pressures persist, indicating a need for increased revenue mobilization and stricter oversight of foreign-financed capital spending.
- The implementation of the new tax package will help sustain the tax-to-GDP ratio.
- Public sector efforts to improve investment management and public financial management reforms are underway to enhance spending efficiency and maximize returns on public investment.
- Borrowing for the NKIA project is expected to push public debt near 80 percent of GDP by 2027.
- Policy imperatives:
  - Sustained consolidation anchored in domestic revenue mobilization, including identifying new revenue measures under MTRS-2.
  - Careful expenditure prioritization of capital spending.
  - Expanded monitoring of fiscal risks to mitigate debt risks.

### Monetary policy, exchange rate, and financial sector risks
- Monetary policy should remain appropriately tight while the exchange rate should be used to absorb external shocks and facilitate necessary adjustments.
- Recent monetary policy tightening is appropriate, but further action may be needed if inflationary pressures intensify.
- The external adjustment should continue to be facilitated by greater exchange rate flexibility and price discovery given that Rwanda’s external position is substantially weaker than the level implied by fundamentals and desirable policies.
- Financial sector risks linked to strong credit growth require close monitoring.
- Potential asset quality issues and overleveraging should be managed through detailed risk assessments and targeted macroprudential measures.

### Central bank governance
- The authorities' initiative to align the NBR law with leading practices has been commendable though important shortcomings remain.
- The draft amendments submitted to Cabinet incorporate strong improvements in critical areas, including to strengthen provisions on the mandate, aspects of financial and personal autonomy, and transparency and accountability.
- Important remaining shortcomings with respect to central bank personal and institutional autonomy warrant further work and enhancements to better align with leading practices, including minimizing the scope for potential government influence over NBR policymaking.

### Structural reforms and inclusive growth priorities
- Structural reforms should continue to aim at unlocking inclusive and durable growth.
- Policy priorities include:
  - Supporting private sector development by reducing barriers to entry.
  - Strengthening regional trade integration to expand markets.
  - Improving infrastructure and interconnectivity to lower transport costs.
  - Leveraging services such as travel and ICT for more sustainable export growth.
  - Raising export competitiveness with stronger regional integration.
  - Continuing efforts to advance climate projects to attract further climate financing and strengthen resilience to climate shocks.
  - Expanding women’s access to education and skills training to broaden their participation in higher-productivity sectors and foster inclusive growth.

### Program engagement
- Staff support the completion of the sixth review of the PCI.
- The authorities have shown strong commitment to reforms, proven ability to implement difficult measures, and a solid track record of prudent policymaking.

*RWANDA INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 23*

### 44. Staff recommends the next Article IV consultation with Rwanda to be held on the 12-

### 1rwaea2025002-source-pdf - Article IV / Staff Report Extract (pages excerpt)

### Recommendations and Institutional Actions
- Staff recommends the next Article IV consultation with Rwanda to be held on the 12-month cycle.
- Given that outstanding credit to the Fund exceeds the 200 percent of quota threshold, staff recommend initiation of a Post Financing Assessment (PFA).

### Recent economic developments (high-level)
- Economic activity: "Economic activities continue to remain strong in 2025Q2" driven by "strong performance in services and agriculture."
- External demand and commodities: "High regional demand for manufactured exports and increased coffee prices led to an uptick in exports in 2025H1."
- Inflation: "Inflation started to pick up but remains within the NBR’s inflation target range."
- Monetary policy: "The NBR tightened its monetary stance in August 2025."
- Banking sector: "The banking sector continues to be profitable, and regulatory capital is well above minimum requirements."  
  - Ongoing demand for repos from NBR with ample liquidity in the interbank market.
  - "Loans under Watch category have plateaued in recent period."
  - "NPL levels remained broadly stable recently, following the COVID-related spike during 2020–21.... but large exposures of banks remain high."

### Fiscal developments and outlook
- Fiscal deficit: "The fiscal deficit is expected to widen in 2025/26..."
- Revenue: "tax revenues gradually starting to reflect the implementation of new tax package."
- Expenditures: "expenditures, especially capital spending, are expected to pick up... influenced by trends in foreign capital and current loans."
- Budget framing (selected descriptors from Table 1 / Table 2 series):
  - Net lending (NLB) trajectories reported in percent of GDP (multiple entries across projections).
  - "Overall fiscal balance (incl. grants, policy lending)" and "Debt-creating overall balance (excl. PKO)" are tracked consistently in the fiscal tables.

### External sector and reserves
- Trade balance: "The trade deficit widened, with a pickup in imports more than offsetting that of exports."
- Exchange rate and reserves:
  - "The REER depreciation slowed in recent months... driven by smaller nominal exchange rate depreciation..."
  - "International reserves increased following earlier disbursements in official financing support."
- Gross official reserves (selected presentation in Table 1):
  - Gross official reserves reported in millions of US$ (multiple period entries, e.g., "2,405", "2,578", "1,788", "2,599", "2,076", "2,649", "2,293", "2,658", "2,387", "2,549", "2,327", "2,561", "2,351").
  - Reserves in months of next year's imports reported with values such as "4", "5.2", "5.3", "3.6", "5.3", "4.2", "5.6", "4.7", "5.4", "4.8", "5.1", "4.6", "5.1".
  - In millions of US$ (excl RSF) reported including values "2,083", "2,256", "1,466", "2,277", "1,754", "2,327", "1,971", "2,336", "2,065", "2,227", "2,005", "2,239", "2,029".

### Monetary and financial indicators (selected)
- Broad money (M3) year-on-year growth entries in the monetary survey include values such as "18.8", "10.8", "18.3", "18.3", "7.6", "16.2", "16.2", "16.3", "16.3", "12.3", "13.8", "13.8", "11.7", "12.5", "12.5", "16.5", "12.0", "12.0".
- Reserve money year-on-year growth entries include values such as "11.0", "11.0", "0.4", "5.0", "20.5", "14.6", "14.6", "15.3", "14.6", "12.1", "10.5", "10.5", "-0.1", "13.2", "13.2", "14.0", "10.9", "10.9".
- Credit to non-government sector year-on-year growth entries include values such as "14.3", "14.3", "17.6", "15.3", "15.3", "10.8", "15.7", "15.7", "19.4", "19.4", "19.1", "19.1", "11.4", "14.4", "14.4", "18.7", "11.2", "12.6".

### Program monitoring and financing
- Selected program indicators: "Figure 5. Rwanda: Selected Program Indicators" (PCI 6th Review incorporates GDP rebasing).
- Gross external financing needs and sources (Table 6 summary):
  - Gross external financing needs (Millions of U.S. Dollars): "1,902", "1,991", "2,249", "2,588", "2,464", "2,104", "2,074", "1,892" (for 2023–2030 rows).
  - Current account deficit entries: "1,684", "1,828", "2,069", "2,320", "2,155", "1,673", "1,651", "1,528".
  - Public debt amortization (excl. IMF) entries: "175", "132", "142", "221", "254", "336", "317", "280".
  - Repayments to IMF entries: "433", "238", "475", "495", "106", "84".
  - External financing sources include capital transfers "398", "383", "337", "337", "294", "294", "294", "294"; direct investment "445", "560", "567", "1,071", "1,172", "923", "885", "810".
  - SCF and RSF financing and residuals are tracked (e.g., "SCF financing149-9000000", "RSF disbursements (not linked to RM costs) 149173000000").

### Debt and IMF-related metrics
- Outstanding IMF-related metrics and capacity to repay (Table 7 highlights):
  - IMF debt service based on existing credit (Principal and Charges) tracked annually with values such as Principal "24.0", "28.0", "34.0", "39.5", "69.1", "76.5", "60.5", "44.5", "22.3", "3.7", "14.0", "24.0", "24.0", ... (SDR millions)).
  - IMF debt service in millions of SDRs and U.S. dollars shown for multi-year horizon (examples: "In millions of SDRs31.9 38.5 45.1 50.5 80.2 87.6 ...", "In millions of U.S. dollars42.3 52.1 61.9 69.5 110.6 121.0 ...").
  - IMF credit outstanding (end-of-period) in millions of SDRs "614.8 586.7 552.7 513.2 444.1 367.6 307.1 262.6 240.3 236.6 222.6 198.6 174.6 150.5 126.5 102.5 78.5 54.4 30.4 10.1 0.0".
  - Net use of IMF credit (SDR millions) trajectories include "238.8 -28.0 -34.0 -39.5 -69.1 -76.5 -60.5 -44.5 -22.3 -3.7 -14.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 -20.3 -10.1".

### Program timelines and reviews
- PCI review schedule (Table 8):
  - Board discussion of a PCI request: "December 12, 2022"
  - First PCI Review: Test Date "December 31, 2022", Review Date "By May 15, 2023"
  - Second PCI Review / SCF Approval: Test Date "June 30, 2023", Review Date "By November 15, 2023"
  - Third PCI Review / First SCF Review: Test Date "December 31, 2023", Review Date "By May 15, 2024"
  - Fourth PCI Review / Second SCF Review: Test Date "June 30, 2024", Review Date "By November 15, 2024"
  - Fifth PCI Review: Test Date "December 31, 2024", Review Date "By May 15, 2025"
  - Sixth PCI Review: Test Date "June 30, 2025", Review Date "By November 15, 2025"

*Source: Excerpt from IMF staff report PDF (Rwanda).*

### Annex I. Implementation of Past IMF Policy Recommendations

### Annex I. Implementation of Past IMF Policy Recommendations

### Fiscal Policy — 2023 Article IV Recommendations and Policy Actions
- Recommendation: Take additional measures for credible fiscal consolidation:
  - Mobilize domestic revenues.
  - Monitor the impact of tax exemptions, consider accelerating their withdrawal.
  - Legislate and adopt revenue and spending efficiency measures beyond the annual budget process before the end of the program.
  - Rebuild policy buffers to reduce debt vulnerabilities and bring debt down timely to its anchor.
  - Secure concessional financing.
- Implementation and developments:
  - Rwanda continues to advance its fiscal consolidation at a measured pace, but additional progress remains necessary.
  - Domestic revenue mobilization:
    - In February 2025, authorities implemented a comprehensive tax revenue package designed to expand the tax base through the rationalization of tax holidays and expenditures.
    - This package will be gradually introduced between FY25/26 and FY29/30, with anticipated revenue gains amounting to approximately 1 percent of GDP by the end of FY29/30.
  - Tax exemptions:
    - As part of the tax package, most VAT exemptions will be repealed.
  - Revenue and spending efficiency measures:
    - Ongoing efforts to improve public financial management systems and rationalize spending reflect Rwanda's commitment to enhancing both revenue collection and expenditure efficiency.
  - Debt vulnerabilities:
    - Heightened financing requirements for a priority investment project have exacerbated debt vulnerabilities.
    - To address rising borrowing needs, authorities plan to reassess other development projects, continue bolstering revenue, and seek strategies to lower borrowing costs, leveraging a mix of domestic, external commercial, and semi-concessional funding sources.
  - Concessional financing:
    - The availability of concessional financing has declined, influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and prevailing global uncertainty.

- Recommendation: Monitor fiscal risks from SOEs and PPPs, implement mitigating measures.
  - Implementation and developments:
    - The authorities are implementing a new SOE legal framework, approved SOE governance code, and is enhancing board selection and performance monitoring.
    - The Portfolio Oversight Unit was strengthened and assessed five SOEs for fiscal risks.
    - A PFM digitalization and fiscal data strategy using AI was developed to improve fiscal management.
    - Fiscal Transparency Evaluation is scheduled for August 2025 to identify further reforms.

### Monetary, Exchange Rate, and Financial Sector Policies — 2023 Article IV Recommendations and Policy Actions
- Recommendation: Enhance monetary policy operations, deepen financial markets; maintain a data-dependent approach to monetary policy.
  - Implementation and developments:
    - The authorities are advancing the interest rate-based monetary policy framework.
    - Operations:
      - NBR’s forecasting and modelling capabilities have improved.
      - While short-term rates generally track the policy rate and the interest rate channel works, banking system frictions still limit passthrough to lending rates.
    - GMRA:
      - The full implementation of the Global Master Repurchase Agreement (GMRA) in June 2025 has strengthened liquidity management and monetary policy transmission.

- Recommendation: Improve exchange rate flexibility to strengthen external competitiveness and ensure sustainability.
  - Implementation and developments:
    - NBR has updated its official exchange rate calculation method to better capture market dynamics and enable more accurate price discovery.
    - Nevertheless, liquidity in the foreign exchange interbank market continues to be limited and shallow.

- Recommendation: Maintain supervisory oversight:
  - Ensure regulations on credit classification and provisioning are not misused by banks to mask asset quality issues, including the recognition of low performing/quality assets.
  - Deploy targeted, time-bound interventions to hard-hit sectors to contain credit risks.
  - Maintain regulatory limits, prudential standards, and supervisory and reporting efforts.
  - Implementation and developments:
    - NBR reinforced loan classification rules and reminded banks to accurately report non-performing loans.
    - Targeted liquidity support was extended to sectors still recovering from recent shocks.
    - Key prudential standards, including capital and liquidity ratios, were enforced.
    - The Supervisory Reporting System (SRS) was upgraded in 2024 for real-time risk tracking.
    - Mid-2024 stress tests ensured banks maintained adequate buffers in line with Basel III.

### Structural Policies — 2023 Article IV Recommendations and Policy Actions
- Recommendation: Align the legal framework with FATF standards, ensure effective implementation of targeted financial sanctions and AML/CFT measures by designated non-financial businesses and professions (DNFBPs), strengthen FIC’s capacities (including staffing and training).
  - Implementation and developments:
    - Authorities updated AML/CFT laws to clarify customer due diligence, beneficial ownership transparency, and mandatory reporting for DNFBPs.
    - The FIC has expanded staffing, improved analytics, and provided targeted training.
    - Enforcement of financial sanctions and oversight of high-risk sectors have also been strengthened.

- Recommendation: Enhance governance and institutional frameworks for inclusive and sustainable growth:
  - Accelerate human capital accumulation; boost female employment and entrepreneurship; narrow the digital gap; improve health, education, and early childhood development services.
  - Introduce structural reforms to improve the business climate and boost competitiveness; promote regional integration to attract private investment.
  - Advance climate risk management.
  - Implementation and developments:
    - Authorities have accelerated human capital development through expanded health and education services, supported female employment and entrepreneurship, and narrowed the digital gap with ICT initiatives.
    - Structural reforms have improved the business climate and regional integration, attracting private investment.
    - Climate risk management policies have been advanced thanks to the recently completed RSF program.

*Source: Annex I. Implementation of Past IMF Policy Recommendations (excerpts).*

### Annex VI  . Data Issues

### Annex VI  . Data Issues

### Data Adequacy Assessment (Tables referenced)
- The Annex lists Table 1. Rwanda: Data Adequacy Assessment for Surveillance and Table 2. Rwanda: Data Standard Initiatives (table contents not reproduced here).

### Common Indicators Required for Surveillance, October 22 – November 5, 2025
- Exchange Rate
  - Date of Latest Observation: 10/15/25
  - Date Received: 10/19/25
  - Frequency of Data: D, M
  - Frequency of Reporting: D, M
  - Frequency of Publication: D, M
- International Reserve Assets and Reserve Liabilities of the Monetary Authorities
  - Date of Latest Observation: 10/15/25
  - Date Received: 10/19/25
  - Frequency of Data: D, M
  - Frequency of Reporting: D, M
  - Frequency of Publication: M
- Reserve/Base Money
  - Date of Latest Observation: 10/15/25
  - Date Received: 10/19/25
  - Frequency of Data: D, M
  - Frequency of Reporting: D, M
  - Frequency of Publication: M
- Broad Money
  - Date of Latest Observation: 9/30/25
  - Date Received: 11/7/25
  - Frequency of Data: M
  - Frequency of Reporting: M
  - Frequency of Publication: M
- Central Bank Balance Sheet
  - Date of Latest Observation: 10/15/25
  - Date Received: 10/19/25
  - Frequency of Data: D
  - Frequency of Reporting: D
  - Frequency of Publication: D
- Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking System
  - Date of Latest Observation: 9/30/25
  - Date Received: 11/7/25
  - Frequency of Data: M
  - Frequency of Reporting: M
  - Frequency of Publication: M
- Interest Rates
  - Date of Latest Observation: 9/30/25
  - Date Received: 10/28/25
  - Frequency of Data: M
  - Frequency of Reporting: M
  - Frequency of Publication: M
- Consumer Price Index
  - Date of Latest Observation: 09/30/25
  - Date Received: 10/10/25
  - Frequency of Data: M
  - Frequency of Reporting: M
  - Frequency of Publication: M
- Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing — General Government
  - Date of Latest Observation: 6/30/25
  - Date Received: 10/06/25
  - Frequency of Data: Q
  - Frequency of Reporting: Q
  - Frequency of Publication: Q
- Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing — Central Government
  - Date of Latest Observation: 6/30/25
  - Date Received: 10/06/25
  - Frequency of Data: Q
  - Frequency of Reporting: Q
  - Frequency of Publication: Q
- Stocks of Central Government and Central Government–Guaranteed Debt
  - Date of Latest Observation: Q2-2025
  - Date Received: 10/10/25
  - Frequency of Data: Q
  - Frequency of Reporting: Q
  - Frequency of Publication: Q
- External Current Account Balance
  - Date of Latest Observation: Q2-2025
  - Date Received: 10/10/25
  - Frequency of Data: Q
  - Frequency of Reporting: Q
  - Frequency of Publication: Q
- Exports and Imports of Goods and Services
  - Date of Latest Observation: 8/31/25
  - Date Received: 10/20/25
  - Frequency of Data: M
  - Frequency of Reporting: M
  - Frequency of Publication: M

(Concluded)
- GDP/GNP
  - Date of Latest Observation: Q2-2025
  - Date Received: 9/17/25
  - Frequency of Data: Q, A
  - Frequency of Reporting: Q, A
  - Frequency of Publication: Q, A
- Gross External Debt
  - Date of Latest Observation: Q2-2025
  - Date Received: 10/10/25
  - Frequency of Data: Q
  - Frequency of Reporting: Q
  - Frequency of Publication: Q
- International Investment Position
  - Date of Latest Observation: Q2-2025
  - Date Received: 10/10/25
  - Frequency of Data: Q
  - Frequency of Reporting: Q
  - Frequency of Publication: Q

### Explanatory Notes and Definitions (as provided)
- 1/ Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.
- 2/ Both market-based and officially determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.
- 3/ Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
- 4/ The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.
- 5/ Including currency and maturity composition.
- 6/ Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.
- 7/ Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); and not available (NA).

*Source: Annex VI . Data Issues (selected tables and notes) — Rwanda: Common Indicators Required for Surveillance, October 22 – November 5, 2025.*

### 16.      Under the 2050 RCP 4.5 scenario, flood depths in a 1-in-100 return period flood event

### 16.      Under the 2050 RCP 4.5 scenario, flood depths in a 1-in-100 return period flood event

### Key findings on flood depth changes
- Under the 2050 RCP 4.5 scenario, flood depths in a 1-in-100 return period flood event are generally expected to increase compared to a similar event under the baseline.
- Sectors already prone to higher flood depths in the baseline are expected to experience even higher flood depths in the RCP 4.5 scenario.
- Most of the rest of the country, which is expected to experience lower flood depths in the baseline scenario, does not experience significant increases in expected flood depths in the RCP 4.5 scenario; however, other related hazards, such as flash floods and landslides, might still become more severe in the mid-century RCP 4.5 scenario.
- Higher riverine flood risk areas are largely in the southern and eastern parts of Rwanda outside of Kigali City.
- By mid-century, under RCP 4.5, flood depths are expected to increase in already higher-risk areas.

### Methodology and data aggregation
- Raw flood depth data resolution: 30 arcseconds, which at the equator is around 1 kilometer by 1 kilometer.
- Flood depth data aggregated to Sector (Level 3) level and matched to loan exposures data for all 416 Sectors in Rwanda.
- Flood depth variable allocated to three risk buckets (low, medium, high) based on the quintiles of the depth distribution across the Sectors.
- Banks’ loan exposures allocated to three exposure buckets (low, medium, high) based on the exposure distribution across the Sectors.
- The 416 Sectors are allocated to nine bivariate buckets combining loan-amount buckets and flood-risk buckets to investigate concentration of loans in high flood-risk areas and changes under the RCP 4.5 scenario.

### Bivariate distribution and exposure concentration
- A small share of total loan exposures are located in high flood depth risk areas in the historical baseline.
- The increase in the share of loans that move to higher risk buckets under the RCP 4.5 scenario is minimal (limited movement along the extensive margin).
- Despite minimal movement across low/medium/high buckets, a large majority of loans experience increasing flood depths while remaining within their initial risk bucket (movement along the intensive margin).
- The flood depth distribution across a large majority of loans shifts to the right (higher depths), covering higher tail values when moving from the historical baseline to the RCP 4.5 scenario.

### Bank-level impacts and aggregate changes
- As flood depth distributions shift right, the average flood expected to be experienced for each bank increases.
- Range of bank-level average loan portfolio flood depth compresses as more banks move out of lower average depths to somewhat higher average depths.
- At the aggregate system level, the average expected flood depth increases by about 25 percent as we move to the RCP 4.5 scenario.
- Bank-level concentrations of loan exposures are high across all banks and are highly concentrated in Kigali City and a few Sectors outside of Kigali.

### Vulnerability and damage estimates
- Damage function: mission used damage functions from Huizinga et al (2017) calibrated to Africa due to absence of Rwanda-calibrated functions.
- Conditional on a 1-in-100 return riverine flood event:
  - In the historical baseline, total expected damages at the bank level range between 1   percent to 2   percent of total loan books.
  - Moving from the historical baseline to the 2050 RCP 4.5 scenario, the average total damage rate at the banking system level would increase by close to 30 percent.
- Conclusion: Conditional damages from a severe riverine flood event are likely to be manageable for banks both under the historical baseline and the RCP 4.5 climate scenario, but systemic risks could be amplified by indirect effects.

### Indirect risks and recent disaster evidence
- The assessment focused only on direct physical damages from a riverine flood event and ignored indirect effects from overall economic disruption.
- Evidence from the May 2023 disaster: floods and landslides led to widespread damage to infrastructure (roads, bridges, water supply systems, power infrastructure), crops and livestock—conditions likely to increase non-performing loans (NPLs) and further decline economic activity.
- Authorities could leverage the May 2023 event to obtain data on realized loss rates and riskiness measures (delinquency or NPL ratios) to develop a more comprehensive impact assessment of severe climate events on the banking system.

### Recommendations and policy implications
- Carry out a comprehensive climate risk analysis covering all major climate hazards (landslides, riverine and flash floods, droughts).
- Collect granular geographic exposure data:
  - Current practice of assigning full loan exposure to borrower headquarters can distort geographic footprint and underestimate loss exposure if headquarters are in less hazard-prone areas (e.g., Kigali City).
  - Banks could allocate total loan exposure across geographic units using share of sales or employment data to obtain more geographically representative exposures and refine impact assessments.
- Facilitate banks’ access to standardized public climate data and ensure data collection and analysis methodologies mature over time to incorporate climate-related financial risks into decision making and risk management.
- Investigate interlinkages between banks’ credit supply decisions and existence of insurance coverage in certain sectors (e.g., agriculture):
  - Increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events may induce insurers to pull out or raise premiums, creating protection gaps.
  - If banks rely on insurance availability for credit decisions, increased protection gaps could lead to a decline in credit supply to affected sectors.

*Sources: IMF Staff, World Resource Institute (WRI), Database of Global Administrative Areas (GADM).*

### 7.      Our external position remains under pressure. In 2024, the current account deficit

### 7.      Our external position remains under pressure. In 2024, the current account deficit

### External position and reserves
- In 2024, the current account deficit widened to 12.1 percent of GDP, led by continued momentum in food and consumer goods imports and elevated capital goods imports over the first three quarters, offsetting an improvement in coffee exports in the fourth quarter.
- Import pressures persisted through the first quarter of 2025 while an increase in coffee production as well as prices of coffee and minerals supported exports in the second quarter, on net driving a modest improvement in the trade balance in 2025H1 compared to 2024H1.
- The Rwandan franc depreciated by 3.0 percent through June-2025, compared to 3.7 percent over the same period in 2024.
- With continued support from development partners, international reserves stood at 4.8 months of prospective imports as of end-June 2025 (excluding RSF disbursements).

### III. PERFORMANCE UNDER THE POLICY COORDINATION INSTRUMENT
- Program implementation under the PCI is on track for successful completion.
- PCI Quantitative Targets (QTs):
  - All end-June 2025 quantitative targets, and both continuous and standard continuous targets were met.
  - Headline fiscal deficit for FY24/25 was met with an application of the adjustors on budgetary grants and the foreign-financed net acquisition of non-financial assets.
  - The 3-month average headline inflation of 6.7 percent came within the inner-bound values (5±3 percent) of the Monetary Policy Consultation Band for end-June 2025.
  - Net foreign assets of the NBR were boosted by frontloaded disbursements from development partners.
- PCI Reform Targets (RTs):
  - The NBR prepared and submitted to Cabinet draft amendments to the NBR Law to strengthen, in consultation with IMF staff, provisions for mandate, aspects of financial and personal autonomy, and transparency and accountability in line with safeguards assessment recommendations (end-September 2025 RT, implemented with delay on October 15, 2025).
  - On September 24 and 25, 2025, the NBR conducted supplementary, smaller-scale (US$ 1 million each) competitive auctions to offer banks an additional mechanism for sourcing foreign exchange (end-September 2025 RT, met).

### IV. OUTLOOK AND POLICIES — A. Outlook
- Growth projections:
  - Rwanda’s economy is projected to maintain strong performance throughout 2025 with a projected growth rate of 7.0 percent.
  - Growth is expected to accelerate to 7.2 and 7.6 percent in the following two years, owing to NKIA construction more than offsetting the slowdown in other public investments.
  - From 2028, GDP growth is expected to moderate to 6.8 percent in line with the economy’s growth potential.
- Inflation:
  - Average inflation is estimated to reach 7.1 percent in 2025 and is expected to remain within the NBR’s 5±3 percent target band.
  - Projections are conditional on the limited extent of exchange rate depreciation pass-through and the absence of heightened volatility in international commodity prices.
- Current account and trade balance:
  - The current account is projected to deteriorate in the medium term due to higher imports related to construction of the airport.
  - NKIA-related imports will temporarily widen the trade deficit and push the current account deficit up to 13.4 percent of GDP by 2026 as project implementation accelerates in 2026–27 financed by project-related FX inflows.
  - Higher interest payments from commercial borrowing will add to current account pressures, albeit lower than previously anticipated due to lower and less costly projected external borrowing.
  - In the medium-term, international reserves are projected to reach around 4.6 months of imports by 2030, supported by fiscal consolidation and increased FDI inflows.
- Risks:
  - Downside risks include global commodity price volatility, geopolitical fragmentation weakening external demand, broader aid flow decline, increasing global trade fragmentation, extreme weather events, and adverse global financial market developments.
  - Domestic risks include slower progress on domestic revenue mobilization, delayed fiscal consolidation due to increased development and NKIA and RwandAir spending, and prolonged external adjustment.
  - Upside risks include higher-than-expected stimulus from NKIA construction, success in attracting external concessional and semi-concessional financing, and better industrialization outcomes in line with NST-2.

### IV. OUTLOOK AND POLICIES — B. Fiscal Policies and Fiscal Structural Reforms
- Revenue mobilization targets and measures:
  - Objective of a tax-to -GDP ratio of 17.0 percent by FY29/30.
  - Compensatory tax package amounting to 0.4 percent of GDP; gazetted on May 29 with most measures effective from July 2025. Measures include:
    - VAT on mobile phones and selected telecommunication equipment;
    - Increases in the fuel levy and registration fees for imported vehicles (implemented in June);
    - Excise tax increases on beer, tobacco, and telecommunication services;
    - Import duty on cosmetics (implemented in June);
    - Reinstatement of the VAT on hybrid vehicles; and
    - The gambling tax (implemented in September).
  - Comprehensive tax revenue package amounting to 0.5 percent of GDP to broaden the tax base and streamline tax holidays and expenditures. Components include:
    - VAT on fuels and transportation services;
    - An environmental levy;
    - Higher capital gains tax;
    - A tourism tax on accommodations;
    - A motor vehicle user charge;
    - VAT on select financial services;
    - Digital services tax;
    - Sunset clauses on VAT exemptions for zero-emission vehicles and energy equipment;
    - Repeal of corporate income tax holidays and VAT exemptions on business inputs.
  - These measures will be implemented in stages over FY25/26 to FY29/30; implementation began in FY25/26 and is proceeding as planned.
  - The VAT on fossil fuels was temporarily adjusted by a four-month fuel subsidy introduced in July to cushion the mid-June international oil price surge. Without this intervention, pump prices would have increased by 7.7 percent for gasoline and 10.9 percent for diesel. The subsidy will result in an estimated foregone revenue of 0.1 percent of GDP.
- Revenue administration reforms:
  - Strengthening tax compliance, enforcement, and efficiency through:
    - Electronic Billing Machine reward system (10 percent VAT rebate per invoice);
    - Tighter customs valuation controls and deployment of scanners;
    - Integration of hospitality sector invoices with the Rwanda Revenue Authority (RRA) system;
    - New Operating Model launched in January 2023 and rollout of the MyRRA online platform in December 2023;
    - Publication of Compliance Improvement Plans and use of dynamic risk management tools;
    - RRA Ministerial Orders on voluntary disclosure and VAT rebates to support implementation of the new Tax Procedure and VAT laws.
  - MTRS-2 will be completed by end-2026 to accelerate successor reforms, aiming to raise the tax-to -GDP ratio by a further 0.6 percentage points. Possible areas include broadening the base for property taxation and expanding e-invoicing coverage beyond the hospitality sector.
- Fiscal pressures and major policy actions:
  - Pension reform effective January 1, 2025:
    - Contribution rates doubled to 12 percent, shared equally between employer and employee, and scheduled to increase by two percentage points each year from 2027, reaching 20 percent by 2030.
    - Base broadened from basic to gross salary; pension benefits raised for the first time since 2018.
    - Direct cost to the budget estimated at 0.2 percent of GDP in FY24/25 and 0.4 percent in FY25/26, rising to around 0.5 percent once contributions reach 20 percent.
    - The wage bill is kept at 2.8 percent of GDP over the medium term.
  - NKIA and RwandAir financing and execution:
    - Government of Rwanda will provide financing estimated at US$1.2 billion (around 8 percent of GDP) over five years, with US$1.12 billion in equity contributions and US$80 million to clear existing debts of RwandAir.
    - Another US$1.4 billion will be provided by Qatar Investment Authority in FDI.
    - Financing being structured with a mix of semi-concessional external resources, de-risking mechanisms, and domestic instruments to minimize pressure on the debt stock.
  - Overperformance in execution of foreign-financed investment projects is expected to continue in FY25/26 due to a shift from budget support toward project support, improvements in procurement, rollout of e-procurement, and enhanced coordination between MINECOFIN and line ministries.
- Fiscal balance and consolidation path:
  - FY25/26 fiscal deficit is projected at 5.8 percent of GDP, lower than expected at the time of the fifth review due to less front-loaded financing of the NKIA/RwandAir priority investment project 1.2 percent of GDP and revisions to GDP 0.4 percent of GDP.
  - The fiscal position remains under strain from higher pension spending, stronger foreign-financed capital spending, and a significant decline in grant inflows.
  - Pressures will be mostly offset by lower goods and services and domestic-financed capital spending, helping contain the overall deficit.
  - Commitments to preserve fiscal sustainability include:
    - Full implementation of the recently approved tax package and identifying additional revenue measures in MTRS-2.
    - Spending rationalization measures, including containing current expenditure on goods and services and domestic-financed investments, and reprioritization of foreign-financed investments.
    - Development of a project monitoring system and a loan and grant management cycle to enhance coordination and ensure disbursements remain within approved ceilings.
  - Target to reduce the deficit from 5.8 percent of GDP in FY25/26 to 3.0 in FY29/30.
- Debt strategy and contingency planning:
  - Fiscal consolidation path aims for convergence to a 65 percent of GDP debt anchor achieved by 2033, two years later than originally envisaged.
  - Rwanda will pursue additional highly concessional financing and climate-related financing, give precedence to concessionally financed projects, and pursue derisking instruments for the US$789.3 million external financing of the NKIA/RwandAir priority project in the FY25/26-FY30/31 period.
  - Strengthen debt management capacity, fiscal risk monitoring, debt reporting, and domestic capital markets development.
  - A contingency plan is identified: in case of unexpected shocks and policy implementation challenges, cut spending in both recurrent (goods and services and transfers to local governments) and capital spending while protecting vulnerable populations; seek residual financing needs through grants and concessional sources.

### Fiscal Structural Reforms and PFM
- Organic Law on Public Finance Management (OPFM):
  - Implementation proceeding as planned. The Ministerial Order required for full implementation is awaiting Cabinet approval—expected in December—following review by the Rwanda Law Reform Commission.
  - OPFM implementation enhances the budget and MTEF, institutionalizes fiscal risk management practices, and facilitates adoption of best practices in fiscal reporting.
  - Reporting periods for most public sector entities are now aligned to the fiscal year from the calendar year, though some delays in receiving data persist.
- Public Financial Management improvements:
  - Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF):
    - MTEF user manual developed and published to guide budget agencies.
    - Budget baseline costing strengthened; evaluating embedding into IFMIS.
    - Performance-Based Budgeting framework enhanced to align with NST-2, sector strategic plans, and the MTEF.
  - Accrual Accounting Migration:
    - Valuation and recognition of non-financial government assets and liabilities progressing; valuation of government-owned land, road infrastructure, transport equipment, and other machinery completed.
    - From June 2024, public debt is included in the government balance sheet.
    - Consolidated financial statements containing values of non-financial public assets and liabilities were published in May 2025.
    - Production of a consolidated annual financial statement for the public sector, including SOEs and contingent liabilities, was finalized by end-June 2025 and expected to be published after April 2026.
    - Financial information related to PPPs will be disclosed in the annual financial statements by end-June 2027.
  - IFMIS Rollout:
    - Continued rollout to primary and secondary schools; secondary schools now integrated via SDMS.
    - Full rollout completed except for remaining primary schools rescheduled to June 2027 due to limited IT infrastructure and shortage of qualified accountants; rollout progressing where requirements met.
  - Fiscal data digitalization:
    - A PFM digitalization strategy, developed and approved with IMF TA, aims to support data-driven PFM and adopt Artificial Intelligence to enhance data-driven decision-making.

*Italic: IMF staff summary of Rwanda — sections on external position, PCI performance, outlook, fiscal policies, and fiscal structural reforms.*

### 21.      We continue our efforts to strengthen the institutional framework and technical

### We continue our efforts to strengthen the institutional framework and technical capacity to oversee and manage fiscal risks from SOEs and strengthen SOE corporate governance.

### SOE governance legal framework and corporate governance
- Presidential Order (PO) defining prerequisites for establishing an SOE, its management rules, and key Board oversight functions was gazetted on August 28, 2024; operationalization is currently underway.
- MINECOFIN, with support from the IFC, approved the SOE corporate governance code and its implementation plan, consistent with the 2024 OECD Guidelines on Corporate Governance of SOEs to ensure operational independence, external audits, and management of environmental and social risks.

### SOE portfolio triage and privatization
- Triage exercise aims to scale down the SOE portfolio, particularly in more competitive sectors.
- Out of the 34 state-owned companies:
  - Three have been fully privatized: Prime Cement, Bella Flowers, and Cogebanque.
  - Huye Animal Feeds will be fully privatized, pending Cabinet approval.
  - Thirty others will be retained under state management.

### Managing and mitigating SOE fiscal risks
- In 2024:
  - Government subsidies to REG, WASAC and RwandAir amounted to 1.2 percent of GDP.
  - Guaranteed loans in RwandAir, NKIA Company, REG, WASAC, and ULC (Ultimate Concepts Ltd.) were about 1.7 percent of GDP.
- Commitment to conduct SOE health-checks for all SOEs and stress tests for at least two high-risk SOEs every quarter. Completed stress tests timeline:
  - Bella Flowers and King Faisal Hospital by end-2023.
  - REG and WASAC by end-March 2024.
  - Rwanda Medical Supply Ltd. (RMS) and AfriPrecast by end-June 2024.
  - Kivu Marina Bay and Horizon Construction by end-September 2024.
  - MMC and King Faisal by end-December 2024.
  - Horizon Sopirwa and Gasabo 3D by end-March 2025.
  - Horizon Logistics and Rwanda Medical Supply Ltd. (RMS) by end-June 2025.
- With IMF TA, in-depth forward-looking financial assessments of five SOEs were conducted, identifying credible mitigation measures for vulnerabilities and improving understanding of fiscal risks related to REG, WASAC, Muhabura Multichoice company, AfriPrecast, and King Faisal Hospital.
- Planned actions:
  - Explore strengthening institutional framework to enforce mitigation measures.
  - Conduct an analysis of fiscal risks related to RwandAir.
  - Scale up MINECOFIN’s Portfolio Oversight Unit by 4 technical staff (already scaled up) and hire 3 additional specialists to strengthen financial risk analysis capacity.

### Strengthening transparency in fiscal reporting
- Follow-up assessment with IMF FAD in August 2025 showed significant improvements since the 2019 Fiscal Transparency Evaluation.
- Commitment to expand coverage of fiscal reports consistent with Government Finance Statistics (GFS) 2014.
- Since April 2023, quarterly budget execution reports under GFS 2014 for the general government are published 60 days after the end of each quarter.
- With IMF TA, developed a GFS Action Plan to:
  - (i) address delays in reporting annual general government data,
  - (ii) update and disseminate quarterly public sector debt statistics to the joint IMF/World Bank database,
  - (iii) regularly update government finance data on the national data page for e-GDDS purposes.
- Commitment to resume efforts to consider transitioning from the e-GDDS to the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS) and update the action plan in line with IMF TA discussions planned for November 2025.

### Public investment management improvements
- 2022 PIMA published in August 2023; continued implementation of recommendations.
- Published a pipeline of appraised major projects (over RWF 15 billion, as defined in Section 4.3 of the National Investment Policy) and annual project selection criteria alongside budget documentation.
- Commitments to further transparency and value for money in project selection, including:
  - (i) improving reporting of contingent liabilities from public corporations, PPPs, and districts;
  - (ii) making all project appraisal documents public;
  - (iii) publishing multi-year project costs using existing data stored in the IFMIS.
- IFMIS project module under development to link project selection, appraisal, budgeting, and execution; enable real-time tracking of disbursements (including externally-financed projects), support quarterly portfolio reviews, strengthen commitment and cash-planning controls, and facilitate timely in-year adjustments.

### Beneficial ownership transparency and AML/CFT reforms
- Beneficial ownership (BO):
  - Since April 2023, companies submit BO information to the Registrar General.
  - Registration of new companies requires BO disclosures; sanctions apply for non-compliance by existing companies.
  - Ongoing actions: ensure accurate, adequate, up-to-date BO information; apply proportionate dissuasive and deterrent sanctions; undertake awareness-raising; cross-check updates with tax and revenue authorities; remove dormant companies; conduct on-site inspections; amend the definition of BO in the Public Procurement law to harmonize with AML/CFT law so BO refers to natural persons.
  - Work towards ensuring competent authorities have direct and timely access to BO information in the central register in practice.
- Mutual Evaluation Report follow-up:
  - Implementing priority actions from the July 2024 Mutual Evaluation Report (second round).
  - ESAAMLG’s 2nd Enhanced Follow-up Report and the 1st Technical Compliance Re-rating—finalized in August 2025—acknowledged progress while noting areas for further improvement, including:
    - (i) improve understanding of ML/TF risks by supervisors, financial institutions, and DNFBPs,
    - (ii) conduct regular sectoral risk assessments for virtual assets/virtual asset service providers (VA/VASPs), legal persons and non-profit organizations,
    - (iii) improve application of AML/CFT risk-based supervision.
  - National ML/TF Risk Assessment (NRA) updated in November 2024; dissemination to all reporting institutions is ongoing.
  - NRA triggered review of the National AML/CFT Strategy, being implemented until 2029.

### Monetary, exchange rate, and financial sector policy strategy
- Strategy rests on two pillars:
  - (i) deepening use of data, analysis, and forecasts to inform monetary policy formulation and communication,
  - (ii) strengthening monetary policy and exchange rate operations while further developing money, domestic debt, and foreign exchange markets.

Monetary Policy
- Containing inflationary pressures is a key priority.
- The 3-month moving average of inflation reached 6.7 percent in June 2025, staying within the MPCC inner bound of 5±3 percent.
- At the monetary policy meeting on August 20, 2025, the NBR raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.75 percent; this was the first rate increase since August 2024.
- Commitment to monitor and adjust policy stance to steer inflation back to the mid-target range if core inflation rises or second-round effects appear.
- Recognized upward inflationary risks: global commodity price shocks and adverse weather conditions affecting food prices.

Monetary policy formulation and tools
- Continued strengthening of the Forecasting Policy and Analysis System (FPAS); enhanced economic analysis and forecasting capabilities at the NBR; FPAS remains key input for monetary policy.
- Nowcasting and near-term forecasting tools strengthened; weather risks incorporated.
- Upcoming rebasing of CPI will provide an opportunity to revisit the use of All Rwanda CPI as the principal measure of inflation.
- Consumer price expectations survey developed; first survey conducted in January 2025 and conducted monthly thereafter:
  - Covers around 2,600 households in the 5 provinces (urban and rural).
  - Average response rate is 99.3 percent.
  - Survey topics include perceptions and expectations about inflation, consumption, income, savings, and the labor market.

Monetary policy operations and market development
- With IFC assistance, legal gaps in insolvency, payment system and banking laws were analyzed and a GMRA roadmap was endorsed.
- Central Securities Depository law adopted by Parliament on May 26, 2025; followed by GMRA rollout and signing of the GMRA by all banks to enable repo transactions domestically and cross-border.
- Expectation that banks will start carrying out transactions leveraging the GMRA framework.
- FX policy:
  - Commitment to a flexible exchange rate and proactive liquidity management; limit FX market interventions to minimize excessive exchange rate volatility.
  - FX pressures stabilized in first half of 2025 and are expected to ease through the medium term as policy adjustment takes place.
  - Net FX inflows due to the NKIA project are no longer expected to be positive but will be neutral as domestic project costs are planned to be financed locally.
  - Reserve coverage by end-2025 is expected to temporarily fall below 4 months of prospective imports, before rebounding with development partner inflows in 2026Q1 and project financing inflows aligned with project schedule.
- FX market reforms and actions:
  - IMF TA-supported diagnostic study of foreign exchange markets finalized and adopted in November 2023.
  - NBR revised official exchange rate calculation methodology; gradual transition commenced in July 2024, with the aim to have the official selling rate fully reflect the simple average of buying and selling rates from the previous day’s market transactions; transition fully completed by end-July 2025, three months earlier than originally expected.
  - Two supplementary, smaller-scale competitive FX auctions conducted on September 24 and 25 (end-September 2025 RT) with fixed preannounced amounts (US$ 1 million each) and variable rates; bid caps in place to prevent market abuse.
  - Based on auction experience, plan to augment existing bilateral FXI framework with a competitive auction mechanism.
  - Commitment to strengthen liquidity management and continue regular, formal, and transparent consultation with FX market participants based on IMF TA recommendations.

NBR safeguards, statistics, and supervision
- Draft amendments to the NBR Law submitted to Cabinet to strengthen mandate, financial and personal autonomy, and transparency and accountability in line with safeguards assessment recommendations (end-September 2025 RT, implemented with delay on October 15, 2025).
- Expanded coverage of Monetary and Financial Statistics (MFS):
  - Publishing sectoral balance sheets for the Central Bank (1SR) and Other Depository Corporations (2SR).
  - Compiled sectoral balance sheet for Other Financial Corporations (4SR) and commit to publishing quarterly.
  - Starting in March 2025, expanded MFS coverage to include insurance companies, Rwanda Development Bank, and private pension institutions as part of Other Financial Corporations Survey; started publishing quarterly on the OpenData website.

Financial sector policies and stability
- Continued focus on safeguarding banking sector resilience:
  - Onsite examinations focus on credit risks, large exposures, adequate loan classification and provisioning, and borrowers’ creditworthiness.
  - Complemented by offsite surveillance and quarterly macro stress tests.
  - Banks submitted seventh annual ICAAP and ILAAP in March 2025 (ICAAP projects capital positions for 2025; ILAAP assesses liquidity risk and contingency plans).
  - NBR will ensure supervised institutions manage risks and comply with regulatory requirements, monitor global financial conditions, and implement macroprudential policies as needed.
- Financial sector conditions as of 2025Q2 and 2025H1:
  - Banking sector remains profitable; regulatory capital is above minimum requirements.
  - Microfinance sector credit growth moderated in 2025H1 after several years of fast growth.
  - NPL ratio in banking sector declined in 2025H1 due to loan growth and write-offs of NPLs (including some large exposures); NPL ratio of MFIs remained largely stable.
- Ongoing and planned supervisory actions:
  - Continue intensive supervision, monitoring granular risk metrics and quarterly stress tests; quarterly Financial Stability Committee meetings.
  - Enhance NBR’s risk monitoring and stress testing capacity through more granular data collection, analysis, and longer-horizon stress test models.
  - Monitor retail credit growth in household and SME loans for scope to use macroprudential policies.
  - Continue consolidation of smaller U-SACCOs into larger district SACCOs to enhance efficiency and supervision.
  - Intensify monitoring of large exposures following non-performance of a few large exposures in 2024; large exposures monitored under Pillar II and related capital add-ons required; enhanced stress testing of large exposures with borrower-level cash flow analysis; complemented by corporate indebtedness surveys, sectoral assessments, and credit surveys.
  - If associated risks increase, commit to tightening regulatory limits on large exposures.

*RWANDA INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND*

### 34.      Expanding access to digital financial services remains instrumental to implementing

### 34.      Expanding access to digital financial services remains instrumental to implementing

### Financial inclusion and social safety nets
- Financial inclusion is a main priority area in achieving Rwanda’s National Strategy for Transformation and is considered an integral enabler for development and poverty reduction objectives.
- The dynamic social registry—Imibereho—was rolled out in February 2024 and currently has 3,465,792 households registered (96.6 percent of total as of 2022).
- Imibereho produced provisional targeting lists for Vision Umurenge Programme (VUP) and Community Based Health Insurance (CBHI).
- Targeting approach and data:
  - Continue relying on proxy-means testing (PMT) using data from the Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey (EICV).
  - Undertake annual updates and recalibration of targeting.
  - Integrate social registry and delivery management information systems (SRIS, DMIS) to strengthen accuracy and efficiency.
- Shock-adaptability measures:
  - Increased focus on climate-smart public works in disaster-prone areas.
  - Increase coverage of emergency cash transfers to vulnerable and/or poor households affected by lifecycle and environmental shocks.

### Structural policies and economic resilience
- Social and human capital interventions:
  - Improved design and delivery of social safety nets, access and quality of health and education among vulnerable groups, and promotion of economic diversification.
- Regional integration and trade-logistics priorities:
  - Prioritizing flagship projects such as Kigali Logistic Platform (a large-scale inland container depot) and the NKIA to implement the trade-logistics strategy and attract private investments in trade logistics and export-oriented activities.
  - Working with the World Bank and other development partners to reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers and leverage AfCFTA preferential market access.
  - Emphasis on building a more skilled labor force to sustain competitiveness.

### Second National Strategy for Transformation (NST-2)
- Cabinet approved high-level objectives of NST-2 in August 2024.
- NST-2 is a five-year plan building on NST-1 and focuses on:
  - Job creation
  - Export growth
  - Education quality
  - Public service delivery
  - Reduction of stunting and malnutrition
- Objective: solidify foundation for sustained economic growth and higher living standards.

### Building resilience to climate change and green finance
- RSF commitments:
  - RSF commitments were completed ahead of the initial timeline; efforts continue to integrate RSF-related institutional improvements into decision making.
- Climate budget tagging and taxonomy:
  - Continue enhancing the climate budget tagging framework and harmonize with the Rwanda green taxonomy by May 2026.
  - Adopted the Rwanda green taxonomy (RGT) in April 2025 and announced a detailed implementation roadmap in September 2025 to be led by MINECOFIN with Rwanda Finance Limited (RFL) as co-lead.
- Disaster risk reduction and governance:
  - Continued implementation of the disaster risk reduction management action plan.
  - Final report on Disaster Risk Financing (DRF) diagnosis and strategy is publicly available and validated by stakeholders.
  - Draft Ministerial order on emergency procurement developed and with MINECOFIN for final approval.
  - Sector-based mitigation plans developed and submitted to MINECOFIN for approval by September 2025.
  - Guidelines for effective risk governance across sectors completed by June 2025.
- Bank-level climate risk work:
  - Most Tier 1 banks submitted risk self-assessments of climate-related financial risks to the NBR by end-2024, including gap analyses on governance, risk management frameworks, and strategies.
  - Banks are identifying data needs to incorporate climate-related risks into risk management frameworks and strategy.

### Scaling climate financing and Ireme Invest
- Scaling strategy:
  - Near-term focus on scaling up the Green Investment Facility (“Ireme Invest”) via blending non-concessional and concessional resources and de-risking.
  - Government committed to contribute US$40 million to support Ireme Invest; disbursements to be phased to align with BRD’s absorption capacity and project implementation progress.
- COP28 and complementary reforms:
  - Commitments at COP28 include investment in clean energy, climate-smart agriculture, smart mobility, and sustainable urbanization.
  - Complementary reforms: adoption of Rwanda’s green taxonomy and the Climate and Nature Finance Strategy (CNFS) launched in October 2024.
- Fiscal risk management:
  - Commitment to identify, transparently report, and mitigate fiscal risks from government financial exposure through equity contributions or guarantees.
- Bankable project development and pipeline status:
  - Ireme Invest Credit Facility started lending operations with green projects pipeline estimated at about US$ 110 million over the 2024-25 period.
  - Total committed loans amounting to $50 million while total disbursement remaining at US$ 5 million until September 2025.
  - Project Preparation Facility managed by the Rwanda Green Fund has US$ 5.8 million of approved investments so far; 50 businesses have begun receiving funding to develop green ventures.
  - Public sector facility (“Intego”) at the Rwanda Green Fund identified a first cohort of 10 bankable public investment projects at the total value of about US$ 34 million. Implementation started in 2025 and will continue over a 5-year period.
- Implementation challenges:
  - Scaling up the pipeline is constrained as BRD and businesses need time to deepen understanding of technical requirements for green investments.
  - Bottlenecks most pronounced in climate adaptation sectors such as climate-smart agriculture and the waste and circular economy.
  - Development partners are providing technical assistance to BRD to strengthen capacity to assess and manage the pipeline.

### Program monitoring under the PCI and quantitative targets
- Monitoring framework:
  - Progress monitored through quantitative targets, including a monetary policy consultation clause, continuous and standard continuous targets, and reform targets (detailed in Tables 1a–3 and defined in the Technical Memorandum of Understanding).
- Selected PCI Quantitative Targets and outcomes (Billions of Rwandan francs, unless otherwise indicated):
  - 1. Ceiling on the debt-creating overall deficit, including grants:
    - Prog. CR 24/141 Adjustors Adj. Prog. Actual. Status: 1,15981 1,241 1,228 Met
    - Prog. CR 24/341 Adjustors Adj. Prog. Actual. Status: 69821719578 Met
    - Prog. CR 25/127 Adjustors Adj. Prog. Actual. Preliminary Status: 1,098881,1861,178 Met
  - 2. Floor on stock of Net Foreign Assets:
    - Prog. CR 24/141 Adjustors Adj. Prog. Actual. Status: 9230 923 1,136 Met
    - Prog. CR 24/341 Adjustors Adj. Prog. Actual. Status: 9980 998 1,486 Met
    - Prog. CR 25/127 Adjustors Adj. Prog. Actual. Preliminary Status: 1,1630 1,163 1,213 Met
  - 3. Ceiling on net accumulation of domestic arrears: 0......0 Met across periods.
  - 4. Ceiling on present value (PV) of new public and publicly guaranteed external debt (US$ million):
    - Prog/Actual entries include: 537......521 Met; 1,163......988 Met; 917......70 Met.
- PCI Continuous Targets / SCF Arrangement Continuous Performance Criteria:
  - 5. Ceiling on stock of external payment arrears (US$ million): 0......0 Met across periods.
- Monetary Policy Consultation Band (inflation bounds, percent):
  - Inflation upper bound: 9.0......... (for periods listed)
  - Inflation upper inner-bound: 8.0......... 
  - CPI Inflation target: 5.0......5.1 Met; 5.0......5.2 Met; 5.0......6.7 Met
  - Inflation lower inner-bound: 2.0.........
  - Inflation lower bound: 1.0.........
- Memorandum items (selected):
  - Total priority spending: 1,700......1,710; 850......855; 1,750......1,754
  - Floor on domestic revenue collection: 2,855......2,844; 1,606......1,648; 3,363......3,423
  - Stock of new external debt contracted or guaranteed by nonfinancial public enterprises (US$ million): 23......2317......6713......52
  - Total budget support (US$ million): 747......821; 604......654; 786......818
  - Budget support grants (US$ million): 161......218; 67......103; 155......141
  - Budget support loans (US$ million): 586......603; 536......551; 631......677
  - RSF Disbursements (US$ million): 77......77; 96......96; 0
  - RWF/US$ program exchange rate: 1,165......1,165 across periods.

### Reform targets and external borrowing program (summary highlights)
- Reform targets under PCI are tracked (Tables 2 and 3 referenced for December 2024–June 2025 and external borrowing summary).
- Monetary and Financial Pillar actions (examples and status):
  - Submit to Cabinet draft amendments to the NBR Law to strengthen mandate, financial and personal autonomy, transparency and accountability: target end-September 2025; status: Not met, implemented on October 15, 2025; objective: Strengthen central bank independence.
  - Conduct a supplementary, smaller-scale competitive auction to offer banks an additional mechanism for sourcing foreign exchange: target end-September 2025; status: Met; objective: Improve functioning of the FX market.
- External borrowing program by source, creditor type, and uses (Nominal and PV, Millions of USD) — selected aggregated figures:
  - By sources of debt financing (Nominal): 1160 537 398 752 1165 11163 196 798 816 009 171 3970 (table presents detailed breakdowns across Program/Actual/Periods).
  - Concessional debt and Non-concessional debt breakdowns and multilateral/bilateral shares provided in table format.
  - Uses of debt financing include Infrastructure, Social Spending, Budget Financing, and Other with numeric allocations in table.

### Technical Memorandum of Understanding (Attachment I) — selected items
- Date and scope:
  - Kigali, Rwanda, November 14, 2025.
  - Defines quantitative targets under the PCI and data reporting requirements; applies until the end of the program.
- Program exchange rates (end-June 2023, IMF IFS database) — Attachment I, Table I:
  - Rwanda Franc (per US$): 1,164.6
  - Euro: 1.087
  - Japanese Yen (per US$): 144.9
  - SDR: 1.330
- Definitions and adjustors for key quantitative targets:
  - Ceiling on Debt-Creating Overall Fiscal Deficit:
    - Applies to budgetary central government, excluding Peace-Keeping Operations and including grants; ceiling for June 30, 2025 is cumulative from July 1, 2024.
    - Definition references GFSM 2014 and specifies exclusions and treatment of transactions.
    - Qualified MVD expenditures related to Marburg virus outbreak divided into current and capital; examples of current expenditures provided (leadership and coordination, epidemiology and surveillance, laboratory and diagnostic services, case management, infection control, risk communication and community engagement, psychosocial care, and operational support).
    - Adjustors include:
      - Upward adjustment by shortfall between actual and programmed budgetary grants (evaluated at program exchange rate).
      - Upward adjustment by unexpected budgetary central government expenditure on cereals imports in case of a food emergency and on fertilizer subsidy in case of significant increases in fertilizer import price.
      - Foreign financed capital expenditure adjustor: ceiling adjusted upward to a maximum of RWF 137 billion for foreign financed net acquisition of non-financial assets financed with a drawdown of accumulated government deposits from previously disbursed capital grants and loans.
      - Marburg Virus Disease (MVD) adjustor: ceiling adjusted downward/upward by difference between actual and programmed qualified spending directly related to MVD pandemic rapid response, not financed by earmarked grants/in-kind contributions; upward adjustment up to a maximum of RWF 39 billion.
  - Floor on Net Foreign Assets (NFA) of the National Bank of Rwanda (NBR):
    - Floor applies for June 30, 2025.
    - Definition: NFA in Rwandan francs consistent with e-GDDS template; excludes pledged/encumbered reserve assets, reserve assets corresponding to undisbursed project accounts, holdings of Government Eurobonds; conversion rules provided.
    - Adjustors include downward adjustments by shortfalls between actual and programmed budgetary loans (excluding RSF disbursements) and grants; and by unexpected public expenditures on cereal imports or fertilizer imports in specified emergencies.
  - Ceiling on the Stock of External Payment Arrears: defined and monitored (table entries indicate zero arrears across periods).

*Source: Rwandan authorities and IMF staff as presented in the provided PDF content.*

### 7.      A continuous ceiling applies to the non-accumulation of payment arrears on external

### 7.      A continuous ceiling applies to the non-accumulation of payment arrears on external

### Definition of External Payment Arrears
- External payment arrears are defined as the amount of overdue external debt service obligations (principal and interest) arising in respect of obligations incurred directly or guaranteed by the budgetary central government and entities that form part of the budgetary process.
- A payment is overdue when it has not been paid in accordance with the contractual date (considering any contractual grace periods).
- Arrears resulting from the nonpayment of debt service for which a clearance framework has been agreed or a rescheduling agreement is sought are excluded from this definition.

### Ceiling on Net Accumulation of Domestic Expenditure Arrears of the Budgetary Central Government
- A ceiling applies to the net accumulation of domestic expenditure arrears of the budgetary central government.
- Definition: Domestic expenditure arrears are defined as unpaid claims that are overdue by more than 90 days.
- Measurement: The accumulation of domestic expenditure arrears of more than 90 days is calculated as the cumulative change in the stock of expenditure arrears of more than 90 days at each test date from the stock at the end of the previous fiscal year (June 30).
- Exclusion: Arrears related to claims preceding 1994 will not be counted in the calculation.
- Note: A negative target thus represents a floor on net repayment.

### Ceiling on the Present Value of New External Debt Contracted or Guaranteed by the Government
- Definition: For program purposes, the definition of debt is set out in paragraph 8(a) of the Guidelines on Public Debt Conditionality in Fund Arrangements attached to Executive Board Decision No. 15688-(14/107), adopted December 5, 2014.
- Conceptual definition of “debt”:
  - Current (not contingent) liability created under a contractual arrangement through the provision of value in the form of assets (including currency) or services, requiring payments in the future that discharge principal and/or interest liabilities.
  - Primary forms:
    i. Loans (including deposits, bonds, debentures, commercial loans, buyers’ credits; repurchase agreements; official swap arrangements).
    ii. Suppliers’ credits (deferral of payments after delivery of goods or services).
    iii. Leases (debt is the present value at inception of all lease payments expected during the agreement, excluding payments covering operation, repair or maintenance).
- Under this definition, arrears, penalties, and judicially awarded damages arising from failure to make payment under a contractual obligation that constitutes debt are debt. Failure to make payment on an obligation not considered debt under this definition (e.g., payment on delivery) will not give rise to debt.

### External Debt Definition and Scope of Ceiling
- External debt is defined as debt contracted or serviced in a currency other than the Rwandan Franc.
- A ceiling is applied to the present value (PV) of all new external debt (concessional or non-concessional) contracted or guaranteed by the central government, including commitments contracted or guaranteed for which no value has been received.
- The ceiling for June 30, 2025, is cumulative from January 1, 2025.
- Exclusions from this quantitative target (QT):
  - Normal import-related commercial debts having a maturity of less than one year;
  - Rescheduling agreements;
  - External borrowing which is for the sole purpose of refinancing existing public-sector external debt and which helps to improve the profile of the repayment schedule; and
  - IMF disbursements.

### Contracting and Valuation Rules
- A debt is considered contracted when all conditions for its entrance into effect have been met, including approval by the Government of Rwanda.
- For program purposes, the value in U.S. dollars of new external debt is calculated using the program exchange rates.
- The PV of new external debt is calculated by discounting all future debt service payments (principal and interest) based on a program discount rate of 5 percent and taking account of all loan conditions, including the maturity, grace period, payment schedule, front-end fees and management fees.
- The PV is calculated using the IMF model for this type of calculation based on the amount of the loan.
- Concessionality rule: A debt is considered concessional if on the date on which it is contracted the ratio of its present value to its face value is less than 65 percent (equivalent to a grant element of at least 35 percent).
- For loans for which the grant element is zero or less than zero, the PV is set at an amount equal to the face value.

### Treatment of Variable-Rate Debts and Program Reference Rates
- For debts carrying a variable interest rate in the form of a benchmark interest rate plus a fixed spread, the PV of the debt is calculated using a program reference rate plus the fixed spread (in basis points) specified in the debt contract.
- Program reference and spreads:
  - Program reference rate for the six-month USD LIBOR is 3.34 percent.
  - The spread of six-month Euro LIBOR over six-month USD LIBOR is -150 basis points.
  - The spread of six-month JPY LIBOR over six-month USD LIBOR is -350 basis points.
  - The spread of six-month GBP LIBOR over six-month USD LIBOR is -250 basis points.
  - For interest rates on currencies other than Euro, JPY, and GBP, the spread over six-month USD LIBOR is -150 basis points.
- If the variable rate is linked to a benchmark other than the six-month USD LIBOR, a spread reflecting the difference between the benchmark rate and the six-month USD LIBOR (rounded to the nearest 50 bps) will be added.
- The program reference rate and spreads will remain fixed for the duration of the program.
- Transition note: Given the anticipated global transition away from LIBOR, the TMU can be updated to reflect relevant benchmark replacements (U.S. Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR); U.K. Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA); EURIBOR; and Tokyo Overnight Average Rate (TONAR)) prior to the complete phase out, once operationally feasible.

### Adjustor to the External Debt PV Ceiling
- An adjustor of up to 5 percent of the external debt ceiling set in PV terms applies to this ceiling, in case deviations from the QT on the PV of new external debt are prompted by a change in the financing terms (interest, maturity, grace period, payment schedule, upfront commissions, management fees) of a debt or debts.
- The adjustor cannot be applied when deviations are prompted by an increase in the nominal amount of total debt contracted or guaranteed.

### Reporting Requirement on External Borrowing
- The authorities will inform IMF staff of any planned external borrowing and the conditions on such borrowing before the loans are either contracted or guaranteed by the government.

### Monetary Policy Consultation Clause (MPCC)
- Definition: MPCC headline inflation is defined as the year-on-year rate of change in the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), averaged for the past 3-months, as measured by National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR).
- Consultation triggers:
  - If the observed headline inflation falls outside the ±3 percentage point range around the mid-point of the target band value for end-June 2025 as specified in Table 1a in the PS, the authorities will conduct discussions with the Fund staff.
  - If the observed headline inflation falls outside the ±4 percentage point range around mid-point of the target band value for end-June 2025 test dates as specified in Table 1a in the PS, the authorities will complete a consultation with the Executive Board which would focus on: (i) the stance of monetary policy and whether the Fund-supported program remains on track; (ii) the reasons for program deviation, taking into account compensating factors; and (iii) proposed remedial actions if deemed necessary.

### Memorandum Items and Data Reporting Requirements
- Reporting timelines: Unless specified otherwise, weekly data will be provided within seven days of the end of each week; monthly data within five weeks of the end of each month; quarterly data within eight weeks.
- Priority expenditure:
  - Data on priority expenditure will be transmitted on a quarterly basis.
  - Priority expenditure is defined as the sum of those recurrent expenditures, domestically financed capital expenditures, and policy lending that the government has identified as priority in line with Rwanda’s National Strategy for Transformation (NST-2).
  - Monitoring: Priority expenditure is monitored through the Integrated Financial Management System (IFMS) which tracks priority spending of the annual budget at the program level at the end of each quarter.
- Domestic revenues:
  - Detailed data on domestic revenues will be transmitted monthly.
  - Domestic revenue is defined according to GFSM 2014 taxes and other revenues, per the budgetary central government statement of operations table, but including: (a) local government taxes (comprised of business licenses, property tax, and rental income tax); and (b) local government fees; and excluding receipts from Peace Keeping Operations.
- New non-concessional external borrowing reporting:
  - Data on the contracting and guaranteeing of new non-concessional external borrowing with non-residents will be transmitted on test dates.
  - Exclusions: The data excludes external borrowing by two state-owned banks, the Bank of Kigali and Rwanda Development Bank (RDB), which are assumed not to seek or be granted a government guarantee.
  - The data also applies to private debt for which official guarantees have been extended, including future swaps involving foreign currency loans guaranteed by the public sector, and which constitute a contingent liability of the public sector.
  - The data will exclude external borrowing which is for the sole purpose of refinancing existing public-sector debt, and which helps to improve the profile of public sector debt.
  - The data will also exclude on-lending agreement between Government of Rwanda and public-sector enterprises.
- Policy change notifications:
  - The authorities will inform the IMF staff in writing prior to making any changes in economic and financial policies that could affect the outcome of the financial program (including, but not limited to, customs and tax laws, wage policy, and financial support to public and private enterprises).
  - The authorities will inform the IMF staff of changes affecting continuous QTs and will furnish a description of program performance for the QTs as well as reform targets within 8 weeks of a test date.
  - The authorities commit to submit information to IMF staff with the frequency and submission time lag indicated in Attachment I, Table 2 of the TMU. The information should be mailed electronically to the Fund (email to the Resident Representative and the Mission Chief).

*Source: RWANDA STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2025 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION AND SIXTH REVIEW UNDER THE POLICY COORDINATION INSTRUMENT—INFORMATIONAL ANNEX (Attachment I and related text).*

### 1. The DSA covers the central government, guarantees, and state-owned enterprises

### 1. The DSA covers the central government, guarantees, and state-owned enterprises

### Coverage of public and publicly-guaranteed debt
- The DSA covers the central government, guarantees, and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) as reported by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN).
- MINECOFIN publishes annual debt data in a semi-annual statistical bulletin covering domestic and external debt of the central government, broken down by multilateral, bilateral and commercial debt, and information on guaranteed and non-guaranteed debt held by all SOEs.
- Public guarantees are only extended to SOEs.
- No debt stems from extra budgetary funds, long term central bank financing of the government, nor the state-owned social security fund.
- Local government debt is covered but the existing stock to date is marginal; local government debt stood at RwF 29 billion or 0.18 percent GDP at end-2023.
- All SOE guaranteed and non-guaranteed debt is included in the baseline.
- The contingent liabilities shock equals 6.0 percent of GDP and accounts for potential fiscal costs associated with a theoretical banking crisis and fiscal risks of existing PPPs.
- Operational leases on RwandAir aircrafts and existing PPPs (power purchase agreements, water purchase agreements, etc.) are not part of PPG debt.

### Debt dynamics and main drivers
- Rwanda’s public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio increased by 44.0 percentage points over the last decade.
- Drivers:
  - Loans to meet the development needs envisaged in the National Strategy for Transformation (NST).
  - Borrowing to respond to the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.
  - Three large projects associated with trade and tourism supported through public-private partnerships and external guarantees outside the central government budget: construction of the Kigali Convention Center (completed in 2016), expansion of RwandAir, and ongoing construction of the New Kigali International Airport (NKIA).
- PPG external debt rose by 25.7 percentage points in the five years preceding the COVID-19 shock.
- The fiscal deficit increase in 2020 led to a sharp debt increase by an additional 14.4 percentage points in 2020.
- After recovery, inflationary pressures reduced the nominal PPG debt ratio in 2022.
- Weather-related shocks in 2023 and nominal exchange rate pressures from higher imports increased borrowing; PPG debt rose again in 2023 and 2024 to 74.2 percent of GDP.

### Creditor composition and concessionality
- About 80 percent of Rwanda’s total PPG debt is owed to external creditors.
- Three-quarters of external PPG debt is to multilateral creditors, with highly concessional World Bank financing accounting for the majority.
- Notable market transactions:
  - A US$620 million Eurobond issued in 2021 with a 10-year maturity.
  - A US$400 million 10-year bond issued in 2013 that matured in 2023.
  - Over 2021–22, the government facilitated SOE buyout of US$104 million in external debt with domestic debt financed by domestic bank loans.
- Text Table 2 (2024–26 snapshot) highlights:
  - Total debt stock in 2024: 10,687.8 (US$ mn), 100.0 percent total debt, 74.2 percent of GDP.
  - External: 8,564.9 (US$ mn), 80.1 percent total debt, 59.5 percent of GDP.
  - Multilateral creditors: 6,424.8 (US$ mn), 60.1 percent total debt, 44.6 percent of GDP.
  - IMF: 939.8 (US$ mn), 8.8 percent total debt, 6.5 percent of GDP.
  - World Bank: 3,739.2 (US$ mn), 35.0 percent total debt, 26.0 percent of GDP.
  - Bonds: 620.0 (US$ mn), 5.8 percent total debt, 4.3 percent of GDP.
  - Domestic: 2,122.9 (US$ mn), 19.9 percent total debt, 14.7 percent of GDP.
  - Nominal GDP (US$ million) reported: 15,058 (2024), 16,080 (2025), 17,499 (2026).

### Domestic market developments and debt instruments
- Domestic market depth and capacity have grown; domestic PPG debt jumped by over 6 percent of GDP between 2019 and 2022 in response to the pandemic shock and limited external financing, then declined as external financing recovered.
- Authorities’ financing strategy: maximize external concessional financing before turning to non-concessional or domestic financing.
- Main domestic creditors: banks and a pension fund providing financing through loans and Treasuries.
- Domestic bond market growth: from about RwF 60 billion to RwF 300 billion annually in recent years.
- Shift in issuance strategy:
  - Move from short-term T-bills towards T-bonds; success in extending maturities to 20-year bonds.
  - Bond “re-opening” strategy started in 2019 to identify benchmark market rates by re-issuing previously issued bonds.
- Sustainability Linked Bonds (SLBs) by BRD:
  - First SLB issued for RwF 30 billion (0.15 percent of GDP).
  - Second SLB in October 2024 for RwF 33.5 billion (0.17 percent of GDP).
  - Both SLBs have seven-year maturity with an annual coupon rate of around 12.9 percent.
- As of September 2025, market rates:
  - Average T-bill rates: about 6.72 percent.
  - 5-year T-bonds: 11.0 percent.
  - 20-year T-bonds: 13.0 percent.
- Increased bank holdings of T-bonds as collateral observed; gross issuances expected to remain slow over the medium-term, with some increase to finance part of NKIA construction.

### Macroeconomic assumptions and baseline projections
- GDP rebasing:
  - NISR rebased GDP to 2024 prices in late September 2025 (first rebasing since 2017).
  - Rebasing led to a 6.1 percent increase in the 2024 nominal GDP level.
  - Real GDP growth for 2024 revised from 8.9 percent to 7.2 percent in the new base.
  - Upward revision to nominal GDP lowered the overall PPG debt-to-GDP ratio by 4.5 percentage points to 74.2 percent at end-2024.
- Growth projections:
  - Growth expected to soften modestly to 7.0 percent in 2025 due to contractionary effects of projected fiscal consolidation.
  - Direct impact of changes to US tariffs on Rwanda's GDP growth estimated at -0.03 percent of GDP in 2025.
  - Increased NKIA construction activity will temporarily raise GDP growth to 7.6 percent in 2027.
  - Headline inflation: 5.0 percent in 2024; projected to rise to about 7 percent in 2025.
  - Long-term growth drivers: dynamic service sector, gradual industrialization, significant contributions from agriculture; upside risks from expanded capacity of NKIA.
- Fiscal projections and policy:
  - General government fiscal deficit for FY2024/25 estimated at 5.5 percent of GDP.
  - FY25/26 fiscal deficit projected at 5.8 percent of GDP.
  - FY2025 calendar year fiscal deficit projected at 5.9 percent of GDP (Text Table 3 note).
  - Medium-term budget framework envisages reduction of fiscal deficit from 5.8 to 3.0 percent of GDP over FY2025/26–FY2029/30.
  - Measures to achieve consolidation: broadening tax base (VAT on fuels and transportation services, environmental levy, higher capital gains tax, tourism tax on accommodations, VAT on select financial services, repeal of corporate income tax holidays), increased pension contributions reaching 20 percent by 2030, spending reprioritization and expenditure adjustments.
  - Medium-term contingency measures include curbing new hires, reducing non-essential recurrent spending, and halting underperforming domestically financed projects.
  - Projections assume convergence to a nominal debt anchor of 65 percent of GDP by 2033 under strong fiscal consolidation.
- External sector:
  - Current account deficit in 2024: 12.1 percent of GDP.
  - Revised timing of NKIA/RwandAir financing reduces front-loaded financing in 2025 and temporarily lowers reserve coverage of prospective imports before rising in 2026 as project-related inflows accumulate.
  - Current account expected to widen with NKIA construction and capital injection into RwandAir; higher FDI inflows and external borrowing will support reserves while increasing external debt service outflows.
  - Policy-mix assumes greater real effective exchange rate depreciation; medium-term current account and trade balance gradually improve with fiscal consolidation, higher domestic savings, and improving exports from higher FDI.

### Key numerical highlights and comparative projections (selected)
- Contingent liabilities shock: 6.0 percent of GDP.
- PPG debt-to-GDP ratio at end-2024: 74.2 percent of GDP (after a 4.5 percentage point decline from rebasing).
- Increase in PPG external debt-to-GDP over last decade: 44.0 percentage points.
- PPG external debt increase in five years preceding COVID-19: 25.7 percentage points.
- Additional PPG increase in 2020 due to COVID-19: 14.4 percentage points.
- Nominal GDP (US$ million): 15,058 (2024); 16,080 (2025); 17,499 (2026).
- Debt stock 2024 (US$ mn): Total 10,687.8; External 8,564.9; Domestic 2,122.9.
- Market rates as of September 2025: T-bills ~6.72 percent; 5-year T-bonds 11.0 percent; 20-year T-bonds 13.0 percent.
- BRD SLBs: RwF 30 billion (0.15 percent of GDP) and RwF 33.5 billion (0.17 percent of GDP); annual coupon ~12.9 percent; seven-year maturity.
- Fiscal deficit estimates: FY2024/25 = 5.5 percent of GDP; FY25/26 = 5.8 percent of GDP; medium-term target = 3.0 percent of GDP by FY2029/30.
- Pension contributions targeted to reach 20 percent by 2030.
- Projected GDP growth: 7.2 percent (2024, rebased); 7.0 percent (2025); 7.6 percent (2027 temporary boost from NKIA).

*Source: 1rwaea2025002-source-pdf - 1. The DSA covers the central government, guarantees, and state-owned enterprises*

### 6. Financing needs for the construction of New Kigali International Airport and the expansion

### 6. Financing needs for the construction of New Kigali International Airport and the expansion

### Projected costs and required financing
- Total expected costs related to the construction of New Kigali International Airport are estimated at US$2.6 billion through 2029.
- Planned expansion of RwandAir, the national airline, is estimated to cost an additional US$550 million over the same period.
- In partnership with the Qatari Investment Authority (QIA), the government of Rwanda holds a 40 percent share in the national airport and a 51 percent share in the national airline, requiring:
  - US$1.12 billion in equity contributions through 2029.
  - US$80 million to clear existing debts of RwandAir (around 8 percent of GDP in total).
- Baseline assumes external commercial borrowing to cover import-related content of NKIA construction (around 80 percent of expected costs) and capital injection to RwandAir; domestic financing covers locally sourced inputs.

### Baseline financing mix and timing
- Staff’s conservative baseline incorporates a financing mix that assumes:
  - nearly US$800 million in external commercial borrowing over the project period (over 2026–30).
  - around US$1.4 billion in FDI inflows fulfilling QIA’s commitments over the same period.
- The baseline was revised from a previously more front-loaded profile; the conservative assumption of large upfront financing in 2025 is no longer in the baseline.
- Prior baseline assumptions before cost increases had included US$400 million in external commercial loans over 2025–29.
- To meet obligations, authorities are pursuing a mix of commercial, semi-concessional, and IFI-supported financing, and advancing discussions with the World Bank on leveraging IDA allocations for scaled-up mobilization of external financing.

### Impact on public debt dynamics and fiscal mitigation
- The authorities plan mitigating measures to partially offset increased borrowing, including:
  - Reprioritization of other development projects.
  - Continued advancement on revenue measures (including under forthcoming MTRS-2).
  - Cost-mitigation options through IFI involvement.
- Key public debt outcomes under the current baseline:
  - Peak of overall public debt projected at 79.1 percent of GDP by 2026.
  - Program debt anchor of 65 percent of GDP still expected to be reached in 2033.
- Factors that lowered short-term debt accumulation relative to previous DSA:
  - Higher nominal GDP from the re-basing exercise.
  - Lower volume and smoother profile of external borrowing needs for the priority project.
  - Higher revenues from implementation of recent measures benefitting debt servicing needs.
- Offsets and neutralizing factors:
  - More gradual debt accumulation is largely offset over the medium-term by an increase in other capital spending.
  - Precise timing of reaching the debt anchor remains subject to risks: financing terms, actual project implementation costs, and fiscal reform momentum.

### Changes to external and domestic financing assumptions
- External official financing:
  - Baseline projections assume disbursements from the African Development Bank and several multilateral and official bilateral partners.
  - Under IDA20 and IDA21 terms, loans are projected to increase given the shift from 50-50 grant-loan financing under IDA19 to 100 percent loans; IDA20 loans have high concessionality and marginal impact on PV of debt.
  - IDA financing signed after 2024 is assumed to be in the form of 100 percent credit on regular IDA terms.
- Noted declines in external assistance:
  - In FY25/26, US$110 million of required grants will not materialize.
  - An additional US$5 million in bilateral support from Belgium was cancelled.
  - Total US support amounted to US$178 million in FY22/23, of which USAID accounts for US$127 million.
- External market financing:
  - Share of market-based external financing projected to increase starting 2030, although slowly under the baseline.
  - Staff assumes Rwanda’s existing US$620 million Eurobond is projected to roll-over in 2031.
  - To finance the US$1.2 billion required for increased NKIA costs and RwandAir capital increase, staff’s baseline assumes increased external commercial financing and nearly US$800 million in external commercial financing over 2026–30.
- Domestic financing:
  - Domestic financing is projected to decline through 2030 to pre-pandemic average and pick up thereafter.
  - Compared to previous DSA, domestic debt levels expected to be slightly higher over the medium-term due to reliance on domestic market to cover domestically sourced inputs to NKIA construction.
  - Domestic debt service is projected to fall in the near-term and remain stable over the medium-term at levels slightly higher than peer countries; gross issuances will continue to decline and net issuances are projected to be negative in the medium-term.

### Fiscal trade-offs and reprioritization
- To create fiscal space for airport and airline financing needs, the authorities earlier reduced expectations on previously planned external yet concessional borrowing for development projects by US$511 million over five years (FY25/26–FY29/30).
- However, faster than expected disbursements in foreign-financed projects have resulted in less near-term reprioritization on net, and increased new project capital spending over the medium-term has largely offset the reduction in external borrowing expectations for NKIA construction.

### Risks, realism checks, and macro assumptions
- Realism tools:
  - A 3-year fiscal consolidation in the primary balance is expected to peak at 4.0 percentage points of GDP from 2025 to 2028, just below the top quartile of past adjustments for a sample of low-income countries.
  - Excluding the NKIA project, pace of adjustment remains ambitious and depends on successful implementation of revenue measures and spending rationalization under the PCI and recent reforms.
- Historical context and fiscal risks:
  - Over the past five years, changes in total public debt were driven by higher-than-anticipated primary deficits and unanticipated developments of debt outside the central government, leading to higher-than-expected debt accumulation of over 20 percentage points of GDP.
  - Ongoing efforts to mitigate unanticipated fiscal developments outside the central government, supported by IMF TA, remain a key pillar of the PCI.
- Key downside risks:
  - Financing terms.
  - Actual project implementation costs and cost overruns related to NKIA.
  - Strength of overall fiscal reform momentum.
  - Concentrated banking sector exposures to rapidly growing mortgage- and construction-related activities.
- Long-term macro assumptions referenced in context (from World Bank analysis):
  - Long term TFP growth in the baseline assumed at 1.8 percent.
  - Investment assumed to continue at 28 percent of GDP for the whole projection period.
  - Population growth projected to slow from around 2.3 percent currently to about 1.4 percent over the next 30 years.
  - Exports have potential to increase substantially through AfCFTA, minerals and metals export growth, textiles and clothing, and services export gains.

*Source: IMF staff report chapter on financing needs for NKIA construction and RwandAir expansion.*

### 11. Rwanda’s debt-carrying capacity continues to be assessed as “strong”,  unchanged from the

### Rwanda’s debt-carrying capacity continues to be assessed as “strong”, unchanged from the previous DSA

### Debt-carrying capacity (Composite Index)
- The composite index (CI) for Rwanda in the new LIC-DSF stands at 3.17.
- CI data sources: April 2025 World Economic Outlook and 2023 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) of the World Bank.
- The CI score 3.17 is above the cut-off value of 3.05 for strong capacity countries.
- CI components and contributions (as presented):
  - CPIA: Coefficient 0.3854; 10-year average value 4.094; CI Score component 1.585; Contribution 50%
  - Real growth rate (in percent): Coefficient 2.719; 10-year average value 6.875; CI Score component 0.196; Contribution 2%
  - Import coverage of reserves (in percent): Coefficient 4.052; 10-year average value 35.132; CI Score component 1.424; Contribution 45%
  - Import coverage of reserves^2 (in percent): Coefficient -3.990; 10-year average value 12.343; CI Score component -0.49; Contribution -16%
  - Remittances (in percent): Coefficient 2.022; 10-year average value 3.411; CI Score component 0.072; Contribution 1%
  - World economic growth (in percent): Coefficient 13.520; 10-year average value 2.973; CI Score component 0.401; Contribution 3%
  - CI Score: 3.17 (100%); CI rating: Strong
  - Final classification based on current vintage: Strong
  - Classification based on the previous vintage: Strong
  - Classification based on the two previous vintages: Strong
  - Reported CI values across vintages: 3.17, 3.19, 3.17

### Stress tests and tailored scenarios
- Standard stress tests conducted: real GDP growth, primary balance, current transfers, foreign exchange depreciation, and combination — all at default settings.
- Contingent liability stress test: assumes materialization of liabilities in Text Table 1.
- Natural disaster stress test: informed by once-in-100-years flooding scenario in World Bank’s (2022) CCDR and by severe 2Q 2023 flooding events.
  - Assumed damages: 11.2 percent of physical capital.
  - Required external financing to replace damages: 17.9 percent of GDP.
  - Capital-to-GDP estimation: 1.6 (perpetual inventory method).
  - GDP and exports expected to decline by 4.4 percent under the scenario.
- Default market-financing stress test applied because of Rwanda’s outstanding Eurobond; indicates significant gross financing needs and risks from higher sovereign spreads compared to 2021 access.

### External debt: baseline and stress outcomes
- Baseline external debt indicators remain below some thresholds but breaches occur under stress scenarios.
- Improvements relative to previous DSA attributed to: higher re-based GDP, lower near-term external borrowing assumptions, stronger revenues, and improved near-term debt dynamics.
- PV of external debt-to-GDP:
  - Remains below threshold, rises through 2027, then declines as external borrowing slows and financing needs decline due to completion of airport and airline projects and fiscal consolidation.
  - Near- and medium-term breaches under the primary balance standard stress test.
  - Approaching threshold under the natural disaster stress scenario.
- PV of external debt-to-exports remains below indicative thresholds under baseline and shock scenarios.
- Liquidity indicators:
  - Baseline debt service-to-revenue rises in the medium-term.
  - One-time breaches of liquidity indicators in 2031 reflect repayment of the outstanding Eurobond at maturity.
- Market financing risk indicators: elevated gross financing needs heighten risks to market financing conditions.
- Customized alternative scenario (captures baseline risks not fully captured in standard tests):
  - Key baseline risks: decline in concessional financing availability, slow progress on domestic revenue mobilization, sustained exchange rate pressure and risks to the credibility of the nominal debt anchor of 65 percent of GDP.
  - Scenario assumptions: wider fiscal deficit financed with more expensive external borrowing and less grant support; higher imports, pressure on reserves, sustained exchange rate depreciation.
  - Outcome: external debt service-to-revenue reaches its threshold by 2029 and remains above it thereafter, with larger deviations at the 2031 bullet amortization.

### Historical scenario and implications
- Under the historical scenario, PV of external debt-to-GDP increases steadily due to assumed large external shocks and imbalances reflecting historical averages.
  - Drivers: large current account deficit and negative US$ GDP deflator calibrated using historical averages that include commodity price shocks and drought.
- Policy implication: policy adjustment to ensure steady narrowing of the current account deficit, as in the baseline, is key to strengthening debt dynamics.

### Public debt dynamics
- High financing needs persist despite fiscal consolidation and investment reprioritization efforts.
- Shift toward market-based sources largely due to airport and airline projects.
- Baseline projection:
  - Overall public debt level reaches 79.1 percent of GDP by 2027.
  - Program debt anchor under the PCI of 65 percent of GDP is reached in 2033, conditional on a large, growth-friendly fiscal consolidation and strong economic activity.
  - The PV of PPG debt is projected to remain above the East African Community debt convergence criterion of 50 percent until 2031.
- PV of PPG debt under scenarios:
  - Baseline: peaks at 56.1 percent in 2025; declines to 45.6 percent in 2035.
  - Natural disaster shock (most severe): breaches 70 percent benchmark over 2026-31, peaking at 77 percent before returning to a declining path under baseline dynamics.
- Authorities’ climate-related reform measures, including RSF implementation and climate-related investment priorities, should help reduce variability to climate shocks and strengthen resilience.

### Climate-related risks
- Channels of vulnerability: increased variability of crop yields, reduced labor productivity, tourism impacts from changing rainfall patterns, extreme heat, increased illness incidence, and more frequent/damaging flooding.
- Potential impacts: reduced long-term growth, higher risks to infrastructure and built capital, increased fiscal response needs, and adverse effects on long-run debt sustainability.
- Evidence and recommendations referenced: DSA attached to IMF Country Report No. 2024/341 — higher adaptation investment aligned with Rwanda’s NDCs, full RSF implementation, and policy adjustments could substantially improve resilience and safeguard debt sustainability.

### Assessment and policy implications
- Overall assessment: Rwanda’s debt is sustainable with a moderate risk of external and public debt distress, in line with the previous DSA.
- Mechanical indicators: suggest moderate risk of debt distress with limited space to absorb shocks.
- Liquidity and solvency:
  - Baseline indicators improved versus previous DSA but had deteriorated prior to inclusion of the large priority project in baseline.
  - Medium-term liquidity risks have risen; debt service-to-revenue is vulnerable to policy slippage and downside risks.
  - Even modest deviations from planned adjustment could push debt burden indicators closer to high-risk thresholds, with adverse implications for concessional financing and market financing costs.
- Recommended policy priorities:
  - Sustained, credible commitment to strong policies to safeguard debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability.
  - Fiscal consolidation, notably revenue mobilization efforts.
  - Reprioritization of planned investment projects.
  - Support external adjustment via real effective exchange rate adjustment.
  - Prudent debt management strategy to mitigate repayment risks, particularly for bullet amortizations in 2031.
  - Continued climate-related reforms and adaptation investment to reduce variability from climate shocks.

*IMF staff assessment as presented in the source content.*

### 20. The authorities broadly agree with the results of the DSA and the overall assessment of a

### 1rwaea2025002-source-pdf - 20. The authorities broadly agree with the results of the DSA and the overall assessment of a

### Authorities' assessment and commitments
- The authorities broadly agree with the results of the DSA and the overall assessment of a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress.
- The authorities are committed to preserving the moderate risk assessment and to fulfilling key mitigating measures to build fiscal and external buffers and policy space to absorb shocks and unforeseen developments.
- Ongoing implementation priorities:
  - Fiscal consolidation measures: "improve revenues mobilization, prudent spending rationalization, and fiscal risk mitigation."
  - Target to bring debt to the anchor of 65 percent of GDP by 2033.
  - Debt management strategy: "focus on maximizing opportunities for concessional financing in line with the medium-term debt strategy."
  - Financing for NKIA/RwandAir: "actively exploring different de-risking instruments and blend finance options to achieve a favorable mix of cost – risk tradeoff."
  - Commitment to "safeguarding debt sustainability and building their sustainability and climate resilience agenda in support of climate adaptation and mitigation measures."

### Fiscal space and climate-related fiscal risk measures
- The government has adopted measures to create fiscal space to address climate-related fiscal risks under:
  - IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) program; or
  - PPAs under the IDA Sustainable Development Finance Policy (SDFP).
- Notable adoptions: "Climate and Nature Finance Strategy (CNFS)" and the "Green Taxonomy."

### External Debt Sustainability Framework — Baseline scenario (selected series and indicators as presented)
- External debt (nominal) 1/ series as presented:
  - 81.080.584.386.487.285.884.074.959.463.081.7
- of which: public and publicly guaranteed (PPG):
  - 59.558.162.063.864.462.359.544.424.645.256.6
- Change in external debt:
  - 7.1-0.53.82.10.8-1.4-1.9-1.3-2.0
- Identified net debt-creating flows:
  - 6.94.01.8-0.7-1.7-1.9-2.21.0-2.15.10.0
- Non-interest current account deficit:
  - 10.511.111.79.86.45.74.78.45.310.18.0
- Deficit in balance of goods and services:
  - 14.915.214.912.99.58.47.65.9-0.915.29.0
- Exports (percent of GDP):
  - 28.426.327.828.729.328.927.325.927.3
- Imports (percent of GDP):
  - 43.441.542.741.538.737.234.931.726.4
- Net current transfers (negative = inflow):
  - -5.2-4.6-4.0-4.1-4.1-3.9-3.5-2.8-1.9-6.2-3.7
  - of which: official: -4.3-3.2-2.9-2.7-2.7-2.4-2.2-0.9-0.1
- Net FDI (negative = inflow):
  - -3.7-3.5-6.2-6.4-4.7-4.2-3.6-4.3-4.9-2.6-4.5
- Endogenous debt dynamics:
  - 0.1-3.6-3.7-4.2-3.3-3.4-3.4-3.1-2.6
  - Contribution from nominal interest rate: 1.61.71.71.92.22.22.01.61.1
  - Contribution from real GDP growth: -5.2-5.3-5.4-6.0-5.5-5.5-5.4-4.7-3.7
- Residual:
  - 0.2-4.52.02.82.50.50.4-2.30.10.3-0.6
- Sustainability indicators:
  - PV of PPG external debt-to-GDP ratio: 38.738.340.642.042.140.738.829.416.1
  - PV of PPG external debt-to-exports ratio: 136.1145.6145.9146.4143.7141.2141.9113.859.1
  - PPG debt service-to-exports ratio: 5.78.68.89.59.910.210.09.35.2
  - PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio: 9.613.313.714.715.315.414.111.06.6
  - Gross external financing need (Billion of U.S. dollars): 1.72.01.81.61.41.41.43.34.4
- Key macroeconomic assumptions:
  - Real GDP growth (in percent): 7.27.07.27.66.86.86.86.76.56.86.9
  - GDP deflator in US dollar terms (change in percent): -4.8-0.50.4-1.2-0.70.21.42.02.0-0.20.9
  - Effective interest rate (percent) 4/: 2.12.32.32.42.62.72.52.32.02.72.4
  - Growth of exports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent): 22.0-1.614.09.48.25.62.78.310.013.37.0
  - Growth of imports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent): 13.11.811.03.3-1.12.81.78.3-3.49.84.9
  - Grant element of new public sector borrowing (in percent): ...46.234.333.938.938.543.537.532.5...36.9
  - Government revenues (excluding grants, in percent of GDP): 17.017.017.918.618.919.119.421.921.4 18.019.6
  - Aid flows (in Billion of US dollars) 5/: 0.61.01.20.90.90.80.80.71.2
  - Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of GDP) 6/: ...4.75.44.54.43.53.21.51.3...3.1
  - Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of external financing) 6/: ...66.048.550.157.060.161.951.450.5...52.3
- Memorandum items:
  - PV of external debt 7/: 60.260.762.964.564.964.363.359.950.9
  - In percent of exports: 211.7230.7225.8225.2221.9222.9231.5231.6186.7
  - Total external debt service-to-exports ratio: 14.719.318.318.418.218.219.120.918.8
  - PV of PPG external debt (in Billion of US dollars): 5.86.27.07.78.28.58.810.212.8
  - (PVt-PVt-1)/GDPt-1 (in percent): 2.15.44.02.61.61.30.70.7
  - Non-interest current account deficit that stabilizes debt ratio: 3.511.67.97.75.67.16.69.77.3

### Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework — Baseline scenario (selected series and indicators as presented)
- Public sector debt 1/ series as presented:
  - 74.275.077.779.178.877.073.860.145.458.971.4
- of which: external debt:
  - 59.558.162.063.864.462.359.544.424.645.256.6
- Change in public sector debt:
  - 4.20.72.71.4-0.3-1.7-3.2-2.1-0.9
- Identified debt-creating flows:
  - 0.7-0.91.1-0.7-1.8-2.1-2.7-1.9-0.92.7-1.7
- Primary deficit:
  - 4.83.55.03.51.71.40.80.90.55.41.9
- Revenue and grants:
  - 21.019.620.320.821.221.221.122.522.122.921.1
  - of which: grants: 3.92.62.42.22.32.01.70.70.7
- Primary (noninterest) expenditure:
  - 25.823.225.324.322.922.621.923.422.628.323.0
- Automatic debt dynamics:
  - -4.1-4.4-3.9-4.1-3.5-3.5-3.5-2.8-1.4
  - Contribution from interest rate/growth differential: -6.6-4.4-3.9-4.1-3.5-3.5-3.5-2.8-1.4
  - of which: contribution from average real interest rate: -1.80.41.21.41.61.51.41.11.4
  - of which: contribution from real GDP growth: -4.7-4.8-5.1-5.5-5.0-5.0-4.9-3.9-2.8
- Residual:
  - 3.51.61.62.01.50.3-0.5-0.10.01.70.4
- Sustainability indicators:
  - PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio 2/: 55.356.157.658.457.656.353.745.637.2
  - PV of public debt-to-revenue and grants ratio: 264.1285.6283.6280.7271.7265.6254.9202.5168.3
  - Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio 3/: 38.535.545.146.046.747.249.249.544.6
  - Gross financing need 4/: 12.910.514.113.011.511.411.212.010.4
- Key macro and fiscal assumptions:
  - Real GDP growth (in percent): 7.27.07.27.66.86.86.86.76.56.86.9
  - Average nominal interest rate on external debt (in percent): 2.12.32.32.42.82.92.72.31.52.22.4
  - Average real interest rate on domestic debt (in percent): -7.63.75.67.26.97.06.96.98.10.06.5
  - Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent): 8.27.16.35.05.05.05.05.05.06.65.3
  - Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent): 11.9-3.917.13.30.55.63.77.9-4.85.66.1
  - Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio 5/: 0.62.82.22.12.03.14.03.01.43.83.1

### Stress tests and sensitivity analysis (selected findings)
- Stress-test design notes:
  - The public and external DSAs present tailored stress tests; the most extreme shock is the shock that yields the highest ratio in or before 2035.
  - Additional financing needs generated by shocks are assumed to be covered by PPG external MLT debt in the external DSA; default terms of marginal debt are based on baseline 10-year projections.
- Selected stress-test and scenario outputs (as presented):
  - Figure/indicator notes reference most extreme shocks:
    - Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio: "Most extreme shock: Primary Balance"; "A one-off breach excluded: Market financing".
    - PV of Debt-to-Exports Ratio: "Most extreme shock: Exports".
    - PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio: "Most extreme shock: Primary Balance".
    - Debt Service-to-Exports Ratio: "Most extreme shock: Natural disaster"; "A one-off breach excluded: Exports".
  - Sensitivity analysis Table 3 — PV of debt-to-GDP (Baseline and scenario series as presented):
    - Baseline 2025–2035 PV series: 38 41 42 42 41 39 37 35 33 31 29
    - A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2025-2035 2/: 38 42 46 50 53 56 58 59 60 60 60 60
    - A1 alternative scenario series: 39 42 45 48 48 47 45 44 43 42
  - Sensitivity analysis — PV of debt-to-exports (indexed series as presented):
    - Baseline series: 146 146 146 146 144 141 142 139 133 127 121 114
    - A1 scenario: 146 152 162 172 184 205 217 223 229 233 233
    - B2. Primary balance scenario: 146 160 200 203 205 213 213 208 201 193 184
  - Tailored tests examples (selected entries as presented):
    - C2. Natural disaster 2025–2035 PV series shown as elevated relative to baseline (e.g., 146 169 176 176 179 185 185 181 177 171 164).
- Thresholds and benchmarks used in stress tables are consistently reported (e.g., Threshold values "55" for some indicators and "240" for others as shown).

*Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.*

### 2. Primary balance99111313132213121313

### 2. Primary balance99111313132213121313

### Table 4. Rwanda: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt, 2025–35 (In Percent)
- Baseline (2025–2035): 56 58 58 58 56 54 51 49 48 47 46
- A. Alternative Scenarios
  - A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2025-2035 2/: 56 58 60 61 61 60 61 61 62 64
  - Alternative scenario: 56 59 61 63 63 62 61 59 59 60 60
- B. Bound Tests
  - B1. Real GDP growth: 56 62 70 71 72 71 70 70 70 71 71
  - B2. Primary balance: 56 59 65 63 62 59 56 54 52 51 50
  - B3. Exports: 56 60 66 65 63 60 58 55 53 52 50
  - B4. Other flows 3/: 56 61 66 65 63 60 57 55 53 52 50
  - B5. Depreciation: 56 64 62 60 57 54 50 47 44 42 40
  - B6. Combination of B1-B5: 56 57 62 61 60 58 56 54 52 51 50
- C. Tailored Tests
  - C1. Combined contingent liabilities: 56 63 63 62 61 58 55 53 51 50 49
  - C2. Natural disaster: 56 77 77 76 75 72 69 67 66 65 64
  - C3. Commodity price: n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
  - C4. Market Financing: 56 58 59 58 57 54 51 49 47 46 45
- TOTAL public debt benchmark: 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
- Projections 1/ (PV of debt-to-GDP ratio, PV of debt-to-exports ratio, Debt service-to-revenue, Debt service-to-exports — selected series reported below)
  - Baseline PV of debt-to-GDP ratio (2025–2035): 286 284 281 272 266 255 247 232 219 211 203
  - A1. PV of debt-to-GDP ratio: 286 285 287 286 289 289 291 287 282 283 283
  - Alternative scenario PV of debt-to-GDP ratio: 290 293 308 322 314 304 291 284 281 282 281
  - B1. PV of debt-to-GDP ratio: 286 305 332 332 335 333 337 328 320 319 316
  - B2. PV of debt-to-GDP ratio: 286 293 310 299 292 280 271 255 240 231 221
  - B3. PV of debt-to-GDP ratio: 286 297 316 305 298 286 277 261 245 235 224
  - B4. PV of debt-to-GDP ratio: 286 301 315 305 297 285 276 260 245 235 224
  - B5. PV of debt-to-GDP ratio: 286 316 302 285 272 255 239 221 203 191 179
  - B6. PV of debt-to-GDP ratio: 286 283 297 289 284 275 268 254 240 232 224
  - C1. PV of debt-to-GDP ratio: 286 310 305 294 287 275 267 251 236 227 218
  - C2. PV of debt-to-GDP ratio (Natural disaster): 286 375 368 358 352 340 334 317 302 292 282
  - C4. PV of debt-to-GDP ratio (Market Financing): 286 284 282 273 268 256 246 230 216 209 200
- Baseline Debt service-to-revenue ratio (2025–2035): 36 45 46 47 47 49 61 48 46 47 49
- A1. Debt service-to-revenue ratio: 36 45 46 46 46 48 59 47 48 52 57
- Alternative scenario Debt service-to-revenue ratio: 36 46 49 53 54 57 70 58 58 61 64
- B1. Debt service-to-revenue ratio: 36 48 54 59 63 69 86 73 72 75 79
- B2. Debt service-to-revenue ratio: 36 45 51 57 55 57 68 53 50 51 53
- B3. Debt service-to-revenue ratio: 36 45 46 48 48 50 62 48 47 48 51
- B4. Debt service-to-revenue ratio: 36 45 47 48 48 50 62 48 47 48 51
- B5. Debt service-to-revenue ratio: 36 44 47 46 48 49 64 47 45 46 48
- B6. Debt service-to-revenue ratio: 36 44 48 49 50 53 66 52 50 52 55
- C1. Debt service-to-revenue ratio: 36 45 59 53 56 56 66 52 49 50 52
- C2. Debt service-to-revenue ratio (Natural disaster): 36 47 87 70 78 75 83 67 64 64 67
- C3. Debt service-to-revenue ratio: n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
- C4. Debt service-to-revenue ratio: 36 45 46 47 48 54 68 51 45 45 48

Notes:
- 1/ A bold value indicates a breach of the benchmark.
- 2/ Variables include real GDP growth, GDP deflator and primary deficit in percent of GDP (or as specified in table footnotes).
- 3/ Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
- Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.

### Figure 3. Rwanda: Drivers of Debt Dynamics––Baseline Scenario
- External Debt: Gross Nominal PPG External Debt (in percent of GDP; DSA vintages) plotted across vintages.
- Debt-Creating Flows (percent of GDP) presented.
- Unexpected Changes in Debt (past 5 years, percent of GDP) shown with categories including:
  - Residual
  - Price and exchange rate
  - Real GDP growth
  - Nominal interest rate
  - Current account + FDI
  - Change in PPG debt 3/
- Notes:
  - 1/ Difference between anticipated and actual contributions on debt ratios.
  - 2/ Distribution across LICs for which LIC DSAs were produced.
  - 3/ Given the relatively low private external debt for average low-income countries, a ppt change in PPG external debt should be largely explained by the drivers of the external debt dynamics equation.

### Figure 4. Rwanda: Realism Tools
- Fiscal Adjustment and Possible Growth Paths (percent of GDP; left and right scales)
  - Bars: annual projected fiscal adjustment (right-hand side scale).
  - Lines: possible real GDP growth paths under different fiscal multipliers (left-hand side scale).
  - Multipliers shown: Multiplier = 0.2; Multiplier = 0.4; Multiplier = 0.6; Multiplier = 0.8.
- Contribution to Real GDP Growth (percent, 5-year average)
- Public and Private Investment Rates
  - Gov. Invest. - Prev. DSA vs Gov. Invest. - Curr. DSA
  - Priv. Invest. - Prev. DSA vs Priv. Invest. - Curr. DSA
  - Contribution of other factors and contribution of government capital shown.
- Distribution 1/ (Projected 3-yr adjustment)
  - 3-Year Adjustment in Primary Balance (Percentage points of GDP)
  - Note: Data cover Fund-supported programs for LICs (excluding emergency financing) approved since 1990. The size of 3-year adjustment from program inception is found on the horizontal axis; the percent of sample is found on the vertical axis.
  - 3-year PB adjustment greater than 2.5 percentage points of GDP in approx. top quartile.

### Figure 5. Rwanda: Qualification of the Moderate Category, 2025-2035
- Threshold definitions:
  - For the PV debt/GDP and PV debt/exports thresholds, x is 20 percent and y is 40 percent.
  - For debt service/Exports and debt service/revenue thresholds, x is 12 percent and y is 35 percent.
- Visuals presented for:
  - Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio (2025–2035)
  - PV of Debt-to-Exports Ratio (2025–2035)
  - PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2025–2035)
  - Debt Service-to-Exports Ratio (2025–2035)
- Categories shown: Limited space; Some space; Substantial space; Threshold; Baseline.

### Figure 6. Rwanda: Market-Financing Risk Indicators
- Notes:
  - 1/ Maximum gross financing needs (GFN) over 3-year baseline projection horizon.
  - 2/ EMBI spreads correspond to the latest available data.
- Indicators and thresholds:
  - GFN Benchmarks: 14
  - EMBI value cited: 570
  - Benchmarks/assessments: Breach of benchmark: No
  - Values: 14400 (reported)
- Plots shown for:
  - Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio (2025–2035)
  - PV of Debt-to-Exports Ratio (2025–2035)
  - PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2025–2035)
  - Debt Service-to-Exports Ratio (2025–2035)
- Assessment label: Potential heightened liquidity needs; Moderate

### Table 5. Rwanda: Public Debt Decomposition, 2024–45 (US$ mn)
- Total public debt (US$ mn), 2024–2045:
  - 10,689; 11,566; 12,909; 14,072; 14,883; 15,682; 16,363; 16,973; 17,615; 18,381; 19,331; 20,322; 21,407; 22,564; 23,787; 25,048; 26,414; 27,817; 29,441; 31,220; 33,318; 35,138
- External, US$ mn, 2024–2045:
  - 8,567; 9,115; 10,410; 11,417; 12,227; 12,752; 13,257; 13,115; 13,515; 13,887; 14,190; 14,485; 14,779; 15,067; 15,340; 15,651; 16,006; 16,413; 16,907; 17,487; 18,136; 17,231
- Multilateral creditors, US$ mn (selected series):
  - 6,499; 6,862; 7,886; 8,573; 9,108; 9,443; 9,792; 10,061; 10,295; 10,496; 10,666; 10,852; 11,048; 11,240; 11,422; 11,603; 11,797; 12,013; 12,273; 12,569; 12,899; 12,083
- IMF (US$ mn): 807; 804; 760; 707; 613; 508; 424; 363; 332; 327; 308; 275; 241; 208; 175; 142; 108; 75; 42; 21; 4; 00
- World Bank (US$ mn): 3,739; 3,941; 4,575; 4,832; 5,014; 4,997; 4,997; 5,127; 5,225; 5,296; 5,346; 5,401; 5,470; 5,556; 5,649; 5,753; 5,868; 5,998; 6,163; 6,345; 6,542; 6,119
- AfDB (US$ mn): 1,237; 1,354; 1,542; 1,719; 1,945; 2,157; 2,451; 2,531; 2,610; 2,686; 2,754; 2,830; 2,902; 2,962; 3,016; 3,061; 3,110; 3,161; 3,219; 3,293; 3,380; 3,150
- Other Multilaterals (US$ mn): 717; 763; 1,009; 1,316; 1,536; 1,781; 1,919; 2,039; 2,128; 2,187; 2,258; 2,346; 2,434; 2,514; 2,582; 2,648; 2,711; 2,779; 2,849; 2,918; 2,976; 2,814
- Bilateral Creditors, US$ mn: 1,083; 1,261; 1,403; 1,524; 1,736; 1,913; 2,075; 2,173; 2,265; 2,354; 2,430; 2,505; 2,584; 2,671; 2,762; 2,865; 2,975; 3,100; 3,237; 3,388; 3,548; 3,276
  - Paris Club (US$ mn): 427; 587; 731; 867; 1,068; 1,252; 1,404; 1,466; 1,519; 1,564; 1,599; 1,627; 1,652; 1,682; 1,714; 1,749; 1,789; 1,840; 1,895; 1,955; 2,020; 1,885
  - Non-Paris Club (US$ mn): 655; 674; 672; 657; 668; 661; 671; 707; 746; 790; 831; 878; 932; 989; 1,048; 1,116; 1,186; 1,260; 1,342; 1,433; 1,528; 1,391
- Private Creditors (US$ mn): 984; 993; 1,121; 1,320; 1,384; 1,397; 1,389; 881; 954; 1,038; 1,094; 1,128; 1,147; 1,156; 1,156; 1,182; 1,233; 1,300; 1,396; 1,530; 1,689; 1,872
  - Bonds (US$ mn): 620; 620; 620; 620; 620; 620; 620; 000; 000; 000; 000; 000; 000; 000; 000; 000; 000; 000; 000; 000; 000; 000
  - Loans (US$ mn): 364; 373; 501; 700; 764; 777; 769; 881; 954; 1,038; 1,094; 1,128; 1,147; 1,156; 1,156; 1,182; 1,233; 1,300; 1,396; 1,530; 1,689; 1,872
- Domestic, US$ mn, 2024–2045:
  - 2,123; 2,451; 2,499; 2,655; 2,655; 2,930; 3,106; 3,859; 4,100; 4,494; 5,141; 5,837; 6,628; 7,497; 8,448; 9,397; 10,408; 11,404; 12,534; 13,733; 15,182; 17,907
- Memo items:
  - Collateralized debt (US$ million): 0.0 repeated across series.
  - Multilateral debt, US$ mn repeated line consistent with multilateral creditors above.
  - Percent of external debt and percent of GDP series presented in table (values included in original table).
- Note:
  - 1/ debt as percent of GDP is calculated by authorities based on debt and GDP values in RwF
- Projections: series extend to 2045 as listed above.

*Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1rwaea2025002-source-pdf.pdf_