## Republic of Equatorial Guinea — Third Review Under the Staff Monitored Program (Executive Summary)

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### Recent developments
- Hydrocarbon production and output
  - Hydrocarbon production in the first three quarters of 2025 fell by 14 percent year-on-year; third-quarter 2025 fell by 25 percent year-on-year due to temporary stoppages in maturing wells.
  - Despite production declines, available data suggest non-hydrocarbon activity has not weakened in 2025 to date.
- Inflation
  - Headline inflation decreased from a peak of 3.5 percent in March 2023 to 2.6 percent in October 2025.
  - Average food price inflation fell from 4.2 percent to 1.8 percent over the same period; average core inflation remained broadly stable at about 3 percent.
- Fiscal outcomes and public debt
  - Authorities maintained gains from the substantial 2024 fiscal adjustment; objective of a non-hydrocarbon primary balance (NHPB) of -17.8 percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP in 2025 as a whole.
  - The overall fiscal balance at end-June 2025 was 1.3 percent of GDP, up from 0.1 percent at end-June 2024.
  - Public debt increased from 36.4 percent of GDP in 2024 to 39.2 percent of GDP at the end of 2025.
  - Disbursements of new external financing in the first half of 2025 amounted to US$   6 million compared to budget expectations of US$ 116 million.
- External assets and reserves
  - Imputed net foreign assets (NFA) at the BEAC stood at 370 billion CFAF at end-August 2025, down from 474 billion CFAF at end-December 2024.
  - This fall in NFA relative to December 2024 is equivalent to US$180 million; full-year decline in 2024 was US$380 million.
- Program implementation and social measures
  - Authorities met all of the SMP’s end-June 2025 quantitative conditionality and two of four end-September 2025 structural benchmarks; they met an end-December 2025 structural benchmark by approving a 2026 budget consistent with program objectives.
  - Structural fiscal measures implemented to improve tax and customs administration; social spending prioritized, including elimination of fees for students to travel on public school buses.
  - Work began on a hydrocarbon sector transparency report as part of governance reforms needed to establish a track record for IMF financial assistance under the Upper Credit Tranche.

### Outlook and risks
- Growth and sectoral projections
  - Real GDP is likely to decline by 6.4 percent in 2025 as hydrocarbon output falls by 16.8 percent, while the nonhydrocarbon sector continues to expand by 2.3 percent in 2025.
  - Annual growth is projected at an average of - 0.8 percent during 2025–30 for the overall economy.
  - Projected non-hydrocarbon growth averages 2.9 percent per year during 2025–30.
  - Hydrocarbon production is projected to decline by an average of 6.5 percent per year during 2025–30.
- Fiscal adjustment and debt anchor
  - Baseline reflects the authorities’ plan for a gradual fiscal adjustment of 2.3 percentage points of NHGDP in 2026 and around 1.5 percentage points of NHGDP per year beginning in 2027.
  - The authorities plan to use some government deposits into the medium term to limit public debt from surpassing 50 percent of GDP by 2030.
  - These measures are intended to keep public debt below 50 percent of GDP and restore external balance in the medium term.
- External sector and reserves
  - The drain on BEAC foreign reserves is projected to continue in the near term given weaker financial account outcomes in 2025 and conservative assumptions on future external financing.
  - In the medium term, the authorities’ fiscal adjustment is expected to stabilize the current account deficit slightly above 3 percent of GDP, which under current financial account projections would eliminate the BEAC reserve drain.
- Risks to the outlook
  - Downside risks: additional hydrocarbon production issues or lower hydrocarbon prices; slower implementation of key reforms; persistent reserve drain if external financing does not materialize; intensification of regional conflicts causing food price surges.
  - Illustrative downside shock: a temporary decline of hydrocarbon production by a further 20 percent in 2026–28 would require additional fiscal adjustment of 0.5 percentage points of NHGDP in 2027 and 2028 and higher deposit use to meet the authorities’ medium-term objectives.
  - Upside risks: discovery or new exploitation of hydrocarbon resources, faster adoption of new technologies, and stronger implementation of structural reforms.

### Policy discussions and priorities
- Program focus and governance reforms
  - SMP objectives: stabilize macroeconomic conditions amid declining hydrocarbon production and establish a reform track record to support a potential IMF financing arrangement.
  - Continued implementation of governance reforms remains critical, particularly the publication of a hydrocarbon sector transparency report.
- Safeguarding fiscal sustainability
  - 2026 budget approved and consistent with program objectives; implies an NHPB adjustment of 2.3 percentage points of NHGDP delivered largely through rationalization of capital expenditure and lower fuel subsidies.
  - Despite lower tax rates in the new tax law effective January 2025, non-hydrocarbon revenues are expected to slightly increase due to recent tax administration reforms.
  - The 2026 adjustment is higher than foreseen at the time of the 1st and 2nd SMP reviews and, together with further adjustments, is consistent with achieving the public debt anchor of 50 percent of GDP and eliminating the foreign reserve drain in the medium term.
- Fiscal institutions and financial sector
  - Authorities worked to obtain regional regulatory approval for their domestic arrears clearance plan to strengthen financial sector health.
  - Continued emphasis on tax and customs administration reforms to boost non-hydrocarbon revenues and stabilize public debt dynamics.
- Social outcomes
  - Authorities continued to prioritize social spending, including eliminating fees for students to travel on public school buses.

### Program performance
- SMP implementation status
  - Fund Management approved a 12-month extension of the SMP in June 2024.
  - Authorities met all end-June 2025 quantitative and indicative targets; met two out of four structural benchmarks due end-September 2025 and one structural benchmark due end-December 2025.
  - One unmet end-September structural benchmark is expected to be completed in the coming months; another is proposed to be modified and is expected to be met by early 2026.
- Staff appraisal highlights
  - Recent hydrocarbon production volatility accentuates macroeconomic challenges and the urgency of transforming the economy.
  - Economy expected to remain in a mild recession over the coming years; need to boost non-hydrocarbon growth and diversify away from oil and gas.
  - Execution of the 2025 budget preserves front-loaded fiscal adjustment from 2024 and is an appropriate start to fiscal consolidation.
  - Reforms in tax and customs administrations are generating additional non-hydrocarbon revenues and improving quality of adjustment.
  - Social protection measures such as free school buses have yielded immediate impact.
  - Health of the financial sector is a much-diminished concern thanks to reforms.
  - Continued fiscal adjustment is required as hydrocarbon revenues diminish; beyond 2026, adjustment will likely require implementation of new tax policy measures in addition to continued strengthening of revenue administration.

### Fuel subsidy policy and adjustment
- Policy path and timing
  - Authorities plan to phase out fuel subsidies through gradual price adjustments while protecting the vulnerable through enhanced social protection measures, including those enabled by the upcoming passage of the social protection law.
  - Original plan: begin raising fuel prices with a CFA 150 per liter increase in 2025 (SB for end-September 2025, not met).
  - Revised plan: start lowering fuel subsidies by early 2026 through a smaller price increase of CFA 75 (proposed SB for end-February 2026).
  - Authorities understand the CFA 75 increase will not result in higher transport fares under the planned compensation for transport operators.
- Fiscal impact and containment measures
  - The first (CFA 75) price increase would deliver savings of 0.4 percentage points of NHGDP and close about a third of the expected end-2025 price gap between the pump and market cost prices.
  - The fiscal impact of the delay and smaller price increase is estimated at around CFA 20 billion (0.4 percentage points of NHGDP) in 2025 and in 2026.
  - To contain this fiscal impact in 2025, authorities are:
    - maintaining fiscal discipline for the remainder of 2025; and
    - limiting capital expenditure to about CFA 20 billion below budget (this adjustment will still allow for some acceleration of public investments in the second half of 2025 relative to the execution during the first half).
  - Footnote detail: Net savings in 2026 relative to 2025 are expected at 0.43 percent of NHGDP, resulting from:
    - gross savings due to the price increase of 0.28 percent of NHGDP,
    - savings due to lower projected market prices of 0.16 percent of NHGDP,
    - and the cost of compensatory measures (discounts on the annual vehicle registration fee and VAT on car insurance for taxis) of 0.01 percent of NHGDP.

### Fiscal path (selected figures from Text Table 1)
- Hydrocarbon revenue: 27.4, 21.0, 19.9, 19.2, 17.2, 14.8 (percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP, by column order shown).
- Non-hydrocarbon primary revenue: 4.1, 4.5, 4.7, 4.7, 4.8, 4.9.
- Non-hydrocarbon tax revenue (of which): 2.9, 2.9, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0.
- Hydrocarbon expenditure: 0.2, 3.6, 2.9, 3.0, 2.0, 2.3.
- Non-hydrocarbon primary expenditure: 26.4, 21.5, 22.1, 22.5, 21.1, 20.4.
- Non-hydrocarbon current primary expenditure: 16.8, 16.5, 15.5, 16.2, 15.2, 15.6.
- Compensation of employees (of which): 4.5, 4.5, 4.3, 4.4, 4.2, 4.2.
- Goods and services (of which): 7.8, 7.4, 7.2, 7.3, 7.0, 7.3.
- Fuel subsidies (of which): 1.7, 1.6, 0.7, 1.1, 0.2, 0.6.
- Non-hydrocarbon capital expenditure: 9.6, 5.0, 6.5, 6.3, 6.0, 4.7.
- Non-hydrocarbon primary balance: -22.3, -17.0, -17.4, -17.8, -16.4, -15.5.
- Adjustment in non-hydrocarbon primary balance: -1.4, 5.3, -0.4, -0.8, 1.1, 2.3.
- Overall fiscal balance (in percent of total GDP): 2.4, -0.6, -1.3, -2.2, -1.9, -3.5.
- Total public debt (in percent of total GDP): 39.1, 36.4, 37.0, 39.2, 38.4, 42.2.

### Strengthening fiscal institutions
- Operational and legal measures
  - Preparing a budget execution manual to guide expenditure procedures (SB for end-December 2025).
  - Integrated PFM system, CONTFIN, now operational in all ministerial offices on Bioko; plan to expand CONTFIN to continental government offices in 2026 and include all capital spending in CONTFIN.
  - New procurement law approved by Parliament (envisioning improvements in efficiency, impact, and transparency of public spending); World Bank provided support in drafting the bill.
  - Authorities have taken first steps toward setting up a macro-fiscal unit within the Ministry of Finance with IMF capacity development; agreed implementation plan expected to be completed over a two-year period to enable development of a medium-term expenditure framework.
  - Treasury single account (TSA) implementation continues: TSA law approved in 2023; account census provisionally identified fewer than 800 accounts (down from almost 1100 in 2022); target to reach fewer than 600 accounts by end-2026.

### Revenue mobilization and administration
- Near-term focus and implementation status
  - New organizational structure for customs administration approved (SB for end-September 2025, met).
  - Authorities cancelled all existing non-hydrocarbon sector customs exemptions and now grant new exemptions only for specific imports and defined periods upon case-by-case review.
  - Use of the ASYCUDA system in main customs entry points of Malabo, Luba and Bata has reached 90 percent of full implementation; installation at other main points of entry in the continental region planned by end-2026.
  - New tax law approved in 2024 is being applied; implementing regulations expected in early 2026.
  - 2026 focus: digitalization of tax administration, implementing an IT system developed by a consultant financed by AfDB.

### Improving social outcomes and social protection
- Progress and short-term plans
  - Authorities have met social protection commitments under the SMP to date; the indicative target on social spending was met in the first half of 2025.
  - Fees eliminated for all students traveling on public school buses as partial compensation and to encourage school attendance (SB for end-September 2025, met).
  - Social protection law approval delayed: SB for end-December 2025 proposed to be reset for end-April 2026 after the senate returned the law to the government for questions and revisions.
  - Short-term plan: identify easily implementable and impactful social protection measures to expand coverage beyond narrowly defined extreme poverty groups and compensate the most vulnerable for future fuel price increases.
  - Authorities have requested Fund TA to evaluate cost and impact of various social protection measures and will update the social registry (Registro Unico Social, RUS) based on a recently published household survey.

### Strengthening governance and transparency in hydrocarbons
- Transparency measures and reporting
  - Authorities working with a consulting firm to prepare and publish the first annual report detailing production information and audited payments between the government and extractive companies following standards related to EITI reporting requirements 3 and 4 and an independent reconciliation of flows (SB for end-April 2026).
  - ANIF (financial investigation unit) became a member of the Egmont Group in July; ANIF requested Fund TA to support implementation of the first stages of the new AML/CFT strategy.
  - Medium-term governance agenda focuses on transparency across the hydrocarbon financial flow cycle, including publication of contracts, publication of production and export data and reconciliation of audited payments, implementation plan for the TSA, periodic publication of budget and execution including flows from extractive sector payments (starting in 2026), development of a medium-term expenditure framework with Fund TA, expansion of CONTFIN coverage and inclusion of investment expenditures (by end-2026), and approval and implementation of the public procurement law (approved in November 2025).
  - Authorities continue operationalizing the anticorruption commission (ACC) and collecting asset declarations of public officials; authorities have reconfirmed decision not to publish declarations.

### Financial sector and external statistics
- Banking and statistics progress
  - Progress on arrears clearance strategy: authorities have begun to make payments under the strategy to strengthen undercapitalized privately-owned banks.
  - Approval from regional banking supervisor (COBAC) for the arrears’ clearance plan not yet obtained (SB for end-September 2025, not met) due to delays in COBAC’s internal statutory processes; submission to COBAC is complete and approval is expected in the coming months.
  - Authorities aim to identify a strategic private partner for the systemic public bank and contracted an audit firm to prepare the bank’s market valuation.
  - INEGE working toward compiling external sector statistics under BPM6 with Fund TA support (SB for end-April 2026); recent joint mission by STA and AFRITAC Central.
  - BEAC office in Equatorial Guinea updated historical balance of payments data with notably lower errors and omissions.
  - INEGE improving national accounts statistics and revising the base year, as well as improving computation of quarterly national accounts statistics.
  - Implementation of 2022–23 safeguards recommendations at the BEAC has been slow; recommendations include strengthening internal audit and risk management practices and governance arrangements. BEAC is making efforts and staff continue follow-up.

### Program endorsement and macro projections
- Program endorsement
  - Staff supports the completion of the third review under the SMP given Equatorial Guinea’s performance and commitments under the program.
- Key macroeconomic projections and selected series (series presented as in source)
  - Real GDP (series): 0.9, 0.9, -1.6, -6.4, 0.5, -2.7, 1.1, -1.3, 1.4, 1.1, 2.0, 2.1, 2.1, 2.4
  - Hydrocarbon GDP (series): 0.4, 0.4, -6.4, -16.8, -2.6, -9.5, -1.2, -7.6, -1.2, -2.4, -1.1, -1.2, -1.1, -1.2
  - Non-hydrocarbon GDP (series): 1.3, 1.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.8, 1.9, 2.7, 2.4, 3.1, 3.0, 4.1, 3.8, 4.1, 4.1
  - Consumer prices (annual average, series): 3.4, 3.4, 2.9, (blanks in source), 2.8, 2.9, 3.2, 2.9, 2.9, 2.6, 2.6, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5
  - Total public debt (percent of GDP, series): 36.4, 36.4, 37.0, 39.2, 38.4, 42.2, 40.6, 46.1, 42.9, 48.3, 44.8, 49.2, 46.0, 48.5
  - Current account balance (incl. official transfers; - = deficit, percent of GDP, series): -3.2, -0.7, -3.3, -1.9, -4.5, -2.8, -3.8, -3.2, -3.8, -3.3, -3.7, -3.1, -3.6, -3.1
  - Oil price (U.S. dollars a barrel, series): 79.9, 79.9, 67.7, 69.5, 63.3, 66.3, 63.7, 66.2, 64.7, 66.8, 65.6, 67.5, 66.4, 68.0
  - Total Hydrocarbon Volume (millions of BOE, series): 81.0, 81.0, 76.0, 67.2, 74.7, 60.7, 74.2, 56.2, 78.8, 55.4, 73.4, 55.0, 73.1, 54.7

### Risk Assessment Matrix — Selected risks and policy responses
- Conjunctural risks
  - Escalating Trade Measures and Prolonged Uncertainty — Relative Likelihood: High (↓); Expected Impact: High, ST.
    - Recommended responses: enhance competitiveness, promote diversification, improve business environment, monitor financial sector with CEMAC.
  - Geopolitical Tensions — Relative Likelihood: High (↑); Expected Impact: High, ST.
    - Recommended responses: save windfall hydrocarbon earnings, adopt temporary fiscal measures to protect food security, diversify non-traditional sectors, monitor financial sector with CEMAC.
  - Commodity Price Volatility — Relative Likelihood: High (↑); Expected Impact: High, ST.
    - Recommended responses: save windfall hydrocarbon earnings, provide temporary targeted transfers, allow gradual pass-through of international prices phasing out generalized subsidies.
- Domestic risks
  - Weak governance and capacity — Relative Likelihood: Medium (↓); Expected Impact: High, ST, MT.
    - Recommended response: press ahead with governance and PFM reforms; request TA and training to raise capacity.
  - Banking sector weaknesses — Relative Likelihood: Medium (↓); Expected Impact: Medium, ST.
    - Recommended response: expedite settlement of domestic arrears and continue actions to restore banking health.

### Financing requirements and sources (selected lines as reported)
- Key headline financing figures (as shown)
  - Current account deficit: 40385420246585363514413521437537436546461
  - Trade balance (series): 1,532 2,284 01,968 1,318 1,563 1,129 1,255 1,014 1,157 945 1,106 944 1,119
  - Exports (series): 2,934 3,581 2,982 3,242 2,723 2,717 2,510 2,339 2,384 2,198 2,323 2,123 2,337 2,119
  - Imports (series): -1,402 -1,298 -1,432 -1,273 -1,405 -1,154 -1,381 -1,084 -1,371 -1,041 -1,378 -1,018 -1,394 -1,000
  - Services (net) (series): -653 -753 -666 -735 -668 -700 -671 -684 -680 -684 -697 -697 -720 -717
  - Income (net) (series): -1,159 -1,445 -1,178 -1,315 -1,110 -1,068 -847 -829 -729 -752 -655 -681 -634 -691
  - Debt amortization (series): 169 169 159 160 152 154 171 132 207 142 264 166 319 193
  - Net change in external arrears (increase =-) : 44000000000000
  - Net change in government deposits abroad (inc.=+): 99000000000000
  - Net change in net reserves (increase=+): -411 -385 -56 -308 -159 -233 -95 -110 -50 -332 434 29
- Total financing sources (selected)
  - Foreign direct investment (net) (series): 1 -6 11 24 9 58 50 124 121 169 220 206 285 262
  - Portfolio investment (net) (series): 20 20 21 19 21 19 21 19 22 19 23 20 24 21
  - Debt financing (series): 153 -7750 1775 0720 6518 2925 3535 7561 3795 90400
  - Public sector (series): 773 600 363 129 370 213 380 275 397 292 419 308
  - Non-public sector (series): 146 -841 4177 1447 7148 7915 5831 6387 17192

### Banking sector financial soundness indicators (selected 2018–23 figures)
- Capital adequacy and balance-sheet metrics
  - Total bank regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets (Basel I calculation): 29.5 -2.8 -1.6 -6.2 0.6 -39.8 -1.5
  - Total capital (net worth) to assets: 12.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.3 1.2 -15.6 0.0
  - Total assets (growth): 3.4 -10.3 -0.1 53.2 -30.2 -13.8 7.9
- Asset quality
  - Non-performing loans (gross) to total loans (gross): 36.9 49.1 52.2 55.1 55.4 56.3 56.0
  - Non-performing loans less provisions to regulatory capital: 135.2 -1659.1 -3238.4 -1007.8 10133.9 -60.5 -4275.9
- Liquidity and credit
  - Liquid assets to total assets: 30.3 20.2 19.9 12.7 21.9 26.3 32.1
  - Liquid assets to short-term liabilities: 170.1 120.7 131.5 130.3 152.1 159.9 204.0
  - Total deposits to total (noninterbank) loans: 98.1 104.0 98.5 102.6 115.9 116.5 136.3
  - Gross loan (banks' book) - bn FCFA: 1283 1021 1028 1059 988 898 4992

### Capacity development and technical assistance (selected)
- Fiscal and PFM support: Implementation of ASYCUDA in Bata (ongoing); DMFAS implementation (ongoing); SIGREF implementation (ongoing); Public Finance Review and BOOST Mission: Feb 11–16, 2025; Training in debt management fundamentals: Apr 21–25, 2025; Implementing accrual accounting: Sep 2025.
- Governance, statistics, and other support: AML/CFT strategy and action plan: Nov 2024–Apr 2025; Training – ISA and SUT compilation: Jun 2–13, 2025; Support for enhancing consistency between national accounts and BOP statistics: Dec 2025.

### Letter of Intent / MEFP — Key program commitments and reporting
- Recent macro developments and outlook (selected figures)
  - 2023: Growth contracted by 5.1 percent.
  - 2024: Annual growth of 0.9 percent; hydrocarbon growth 0.4 percent; non-hydrocarbon growth 1.3 percent.
  - End-2024: Debt stood at 36.4 percent of GDP; deposits at 17.7 percent of GDP.
  - 2025: Growth projected at -6.4 percent; hydrocarbons sector contraction of 16.8 percent; non-hydrocarbons sector expansion of 2.3 percent.
  - Medium term (2025–2030): Average growth projected at -0.8 percent; non-oil sector growth 2.9 percent annually; hydrocarbon production decline -6.5 percent annually.
- Structural benchmarks and monitoring
  - As of end-June 2025: Met five quantitative targets and three indicative targets.
  - Structural benchmarks met: eliminated fares of public-school buses (end-September 2025); approved new customs structure (end-September 2025); submitted and Parliament approved a 2026 budget consistent with program objectives (end-December 2025).
  - Structural benchmarks not met: COBAC approval of arrears clearance plan (end-September 2025); planned fuel price increase of 150 CFA francs per liter (end-September 2025) — replaced by 75 CFA francs per liter by end-February 2026.
- Reporting and TMU highlights
  - Program exchange rates as of March 28, 2024:
    - CFAF 606.75 to USD 1;
    - CFAF 655.96 to EUR 1;
    - CFAF 83.96 to CNY 1;
    - CFAF 481.07 to GBP 1;
    - CFAF 802.99 to SDR 1.
  - Data on variables subject to quantitative targets shall be transmitted per Annex 1 timetables; most data to be reported to the IMF no later than 75 days after the assessment date; selected items monthly within 45 days, quarterly within 75 days, or annually within three months as specified.

*Source: Republic of Equatorial Guinea — Third Review Under the Staff Monitored Program (Executive Summary), December 18, 2025.*

### 2024. The economy is expected to slightly shrink in the medium term as hydrocarbon

### Republic of Equatorial Guinea — Third Review Under the Staff Monitored Program (Executive Summary)

### Recent developments
- Hydrocarbon production and output
  - Hydrocarbon production in the first three quarters of 2025 fell by 14 percent year-on-year; third-quarter 2025 fell by 25 percent year-on-year due to temporary stoppages in maturing wells.
  - Despite production declines, available data suggest non-hydrocarbon activity has not weakened in 2025 to date.
- Inflation
  - Headline inflation decreased from a peak of 3.5 percent in March 2023 to 2.6 percent in October 2025.
  - Average food price inflation fell from 4.2 percent to 1.8 percent over the same period; average core inflation remained broadly stable at about 3 percent.
- Fiscal outcomes and public debt
  - The authorities maintained gains from the substantial 2024 fiscal adjustment; objective of a non-hydrocarbon primary balance (NHPB) of -17.8 percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP in 2025 as a whole.
  - The overall fiscal balance at end-June 2025 was 1.3 percent of GDP, up from 0.1 percent at end-June 2024.
  - Public debt increased from 36.4 percent of GDP in 2024 to 39.2 percent of GDP at the end of 2025.
  - Disbursements of new external financing in the first half of 2025 amounted to US$   6 million compared to budget expectations of US$ 116 million.
- External assets and reserves
  - Imputed net foreign assets (NFA) at the BEAC stood at 370 billion CFAF at end-August 2025, down from 474 billion CFAF at end-December 2024.
  - This fall in NFA relative to December 2024 is equivalent to US$180 million; full-year decline in 2024 was US$380 million.
- Program implementation and social measures
  - Authorities met all of the SMP’s end-June 2025 quantitative conditionality and two of four end-September 2025 structural benchmarks; they met an end-December 2025 structural benchmark by approving a 2026 budget consistent with program objectives.
  - Structural fiscal measures were implemented to improve tax and customs administration; social spending was prioritized, including elimination of fees for students to travel on public school buses.
  - Work began on a hydrocarbon sector transparency report as part of governance reforms needed to establish a track record for IMF financial assistance under the Upper Credit Tranche.

### Outlook and risks
- Growth and sectoral projections
  - Real GDP is likely to decline by 6.4 percent in 2025 as hydrocarbon output falls by 16.8 percent, while the nonhydrocarbon sector continues to expand by 2.3 percent in 2025.
  - Annual growth is projected at an average of - 0.8 percent during 2025–30 for the overall economy.
  - Projected non-hydrocarbon growth averages 2.9 percent per year during 2025–30.
  - Hydrocarbon production is projected to decline by an average of 6.5 percent per year during 2025–30.
- Fiscal adjustment and debt anchor
  - Baseline reflects the authorities’ plan for a gradual fiscal adjustment of 2.3 percentage points of NHGDP in 2026 and around 1.5 percentage points of NHGDP per year beginning in 2027.
  - The authorities plan to use some government deposits into the medium term to limit public debt from surpassing 50 percent of GDP by 2030.
  - These measures are intended to keep public debt below 50 percent of GDP and restore external balance in the medium term.
- External sector and reserves
  - The drain on BEAC foreign reserves is projected to continue in the near term given weaker financial account outcomes in 2025 and conservative assumptions on future external financing.
  - In the medium term, the authorities’ fiscal adjustment is expected to stabilize the current account deficit slightly above 3 percent of GDP, which under current financial account projections would eliminate the BEAC reserve drain.
- Risks to the outlook
  - Downside risks: additional hydrocarbon production issues or lower hydrocarbon prices; slower implementation of key reforms; persistent reserve drain if external financing does not materialize; intensification of regional conflicts causing food price surges.
  - Illustrative downside shock: a temporary decline of hydrocarbon production by a further 20 percent in 2026–28 would require additional fiscal adjustment of 0.5 percentage points of NHGDP in 2027 and 2028 and higher deposit use to meet the authorities’ medium-term objectives.
  - Upside risks: discovery or new exploitation of hydrocarbon resources, faster adoption of new technologies, and stronger implementation of structural reforms.

### Policy discussions and priorities
- Program focus and governing reforms
  - The SMP’s objectives are to stabilize macroeconomic conditions amid declining hydrocarbon production and to establish a reform track record to support a potential IMF financing arrangement.
  - Continued implementation of governance reforms remains critical, particularly the publication of a hydrocarbon sector transparency report.
- Safeguarding fiscal sustainability
  - 2026 budget approved and consistent with program objectives (end-December 2025 structural benchmark met); implies an NHPB adjustment of 2.3 percentage points of NHGDP delivered largely through rationalization of capital expenditure and lower fuel subsidies.
  - Despite lower tax rates in the new tax law effective January 2025, non-hydrocarbon revenues are expected to slightly increase due to recent tax administration reforms.
  - The 2026 adjustment is higher than foreseen at the time of the 1st and 2nd SMP reviews and, together with further adjustments, is consistent with achieving the public debt anchor of 50 percent of GDP and eliminating the foreign reserve drain in the medium term.
- Fiscal institutions and financial sector
  - Authorities worked to obtain regional regulatory approval for their domestic arrears clearance plan to strengthen financial sector health.
  - Continued emphasis on tax and customs administration reforms to boost non-hydrocarbon revenues and stabilize public debt dynamics.
- Social outcomes
  - Authorities continued to prioritize social spending, including eliminating fees for students to travel on public school buses.

### Program performance
- SMP implementation status
  - Fund Management approved a 12-month extension of the SMP in June 2024.
  - Authorities met all end-June 2025 quantitative and indicative targets; met two out of four structural benchmarks due end-September 2025 and one structural benchmark due end-December 2025.
  - One unmet end-September structural benchmark is expected to be completed in the coming months; another is proposed to be modified and is expected to be met by early 2026.

*Source: Republic of Equatorial Guinea — Third Review Under the Staff Monitored Program (Executive Summary), December 18, 2025.*

### 12.      The planned fuel price increase has been postponed to contain its social impact.

### 12.      The planned fuel price increase has been postponed to contain its social impact.

### Fuel subsidy policy and adjustment
- Authorities plan to phase out fuel subsidies through gradual price adjustments while protecting the vulnerable through enhanced social protection measures, including those enabled by the upcoming passage of the social protection law.
- Original plan: begin raising fuel prices with a CFA 150 per liter increase in 2025 (SB for end-September 2025, not met).
- Revised plan: start lowering fuel subsidies by early 2026 through a smaller price increase of CFA 75 (proposed SB for end-February 2026).
- The CFA 75 increase is understood by the authorities to not result in higher transport fares under the planned compensation for transport operators.

### Fiscal impact and containment measures
- The first (CFA 75) price increase would deliver savings of 0.4 percentage points of NHGDP and close about a third of the expected end-2025 price gap between the pump and market cost prices.
- The fiscal impact of the delay and smaller price increase is estimated at around CFA 20 billion (0.4 percentage points of NHGDP) in 2025 and in 2026.
- To contain this fiscal impact in 2025, authorities are:
  - maintaining fiscal discipline for the remainder of 2025; and
  - limiting capital expenditure to about CFA 20 billion below budget (this adjustment will still allow for some acceleration of public investments in the second half of 2025 relative to the execution during the first half).
- The latest 2026 budget proposal is already consistent with a delay in fuel price increase to early 2026.
- Footnote detail: Net savings in 2026 relative to 2025 are expected at 0.43 percent of NHGDP, resulting from:
  - gross savings due to the price increase of 0.28 percent of NHGDP,
  - savings due to lower projected market prices of 0.16 percent of NHGDP,
  - and the cost of compensatory measures (discounts on the annual vehicle registration fee and VAT on car insurance for taxis) of 0.01 percent of NHGDP.

### Fiscal path (selected figures from Text Table 1)
- Hydrocarbon revenue: 27.4, 21.0, 19.9, 19.2, 17.2, 14.8 (percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP, by column order shown).
- Non-hydrocarbon primary revenue: 4.1, 4.5, 4.7, 4.7, 4.8, 4.9.
- Non-hydrocarbon tax revenue (of which): 2.9, 2.9, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0.
- Hydrocarbon expenditure: 0.2, 3.6, 2.9, 3.0, 2.0, 2.3.
- Non-hydrocarbon primary expenditure: 26.4, 21.5, 22.1, 22.5, 21.1, 20.4.
- Non-hydrocarbon current primary expenditure: 16.8, 16.5, 15.5, 16.2, 15.2, 15.6.
- Compensation of employees (of which): 4.5, 4.5, 4.3, 4.4, 4.2, 4.2.
- Goods and services (of which): 7.8, 7.4, 7.2, 7.3, 7.0, 7.3.
- Fuel subsidies (of which): 1.7, 1.6, 0.7, 1.1, 0.2, 0.6.
- Non-hydrocarbon capital expenditure: 9.6, 5.0, 6.5, 6.3, 6.0, 4.7.
- Non-hydrocarbon primary balance: -22.3, -17.0, -17.4, -17.8, -16.4, -15.5.
- Adjustment in non-hydrocarbon primary balance: -1.4, 5.3, -0.4, -0.8, 1.1, 2.3.
- Overall fiscal balance (in percent of total GDP): 2.4, -0.6, -1.3, -2.2, -1.9, -3.5.
- Total public debt (in percent of total GDP): 39.1, 36.4, 37.0, 39.2, 38.4, 42.2.

### Strengthening fiscal institutions
- Preparing a budget execution manual to guide expenditure procedures (SB for end-December 2025).
- Integrated PFM system, CONTFIN, now operational in all ministerial offices on Bioko; plan to expand CONTFIN to continental government offices in 2026 and include all capital spending in CONTFIN (MEFP paragraph 10).
- New procurement law approved by Parliament (envisioning improvements in efficiency, impact, and transparency of public spending); World Bank provided support in drafting the bill.
- Authorities have taken first steps toward setting up a macro-fiscal unit within the Ministry of Finance with IMF capacity development; agreed implementation plan expected to be completed over a two-year period to enable development of a medium-term expenditure framework.
- Treasury single account (TSA) implementation continues: TSA law approved in 2023; account census update provisionally identified fewer than 800 accounts (down from almost 1100 in 2022); target to reach fewer than 600 accounts by end-2026.

### Revenue mobilization and administration
- Near-term focus on customs, implementation of the new tax law, and improving revenue administration.
- New organizational structure for customs administration approved (SB for end-September 2025, met).
- Authorities cancelled all existing non-hydrocarbon sector customs exemptions and now grant new exemptions only for specific imports and defined periods upon case-by-case review.
- Use of the ASYCUDA system in main customs entry points of Malabo, Luba and Bata has reached 90 percent of full implementation; installation at other main points of entry in the continental region planned by end-2026 (MEFP paragraph 10).
- New tax law approved in 2024 is being applied; implementing regulations expected in early 2026 (MEFP paragraph 10).
- 2026 focus: digitalization of tax administration, implementing an IT system developed by a consultant financed by AfDB.

### Improving social outcomes and social protection
- Authorities have met social protection commitments under the SMP to date; the indicative target on social spending was met in the first half of 2025.
- Fees eliminated for all students traveling on public school buses as partial compensation and to encourage school attendance (SB for end-September 2025, met).
- Social protection law approval delayed: SB for end-December 2025 proposed to be reset for end-April 2026 after the senate returned the law to the government for questions and revisions.
- Short-term plan: identify easily implementable and impactful social protection measures to expand coverage beyond narrowly defined extreme poverty groups and compensate the most vulnerable for future fuel price increases.
- Authorities have requested Fund TA to evaluate cost and impact of various social protection measures and will update the social registry (Registro Unico Social, RUS) based on a recently published household survey (MEFP paragraph 10).

### Strengthening governance and transparency in hydrocarbons
- Authorities working with a consulting firm to prepare and publish the first annual report detailing production information and audited payments between the government and extractive companies following standards related to EITI reporting requirements 3 and 4 and an independent reconciliation of flows (SB for end-April 2026).
- ANIF (financial investigation unit) became a member of the Egmont Group in July; ANIF requested Fund TA to support implementation of the first stages of the new AML/CFT strategy (MEFP paragraph 12).
- Medium-term governance agenda focuses on transparency across the hydrocarbon financial flow cycle, including:
  - follow-up plan reflecting recommendations from audits of state-owned hydrocarbon sector companies;
  - publication of contracts in the hydrocarbon sector (met 2024 SB);
  - publication of production and export data and reconciliation of audited payments (end-April 2026 SB);
  - implementation plan for the TSA (ongoing) and periodic publication of budget and execution, including detail on flows in accounts receiving payments from extractive sector companies (starting in 2026);
  - development of a medium-term expenditure framework beginning with building up macro-fiscal capacity with Fund TA (ongoing);
  - expansion of CONTFIN coverage and inclusion of investment expenditures (by end-2026);
  - approval (done in November 2025) and implementation of the public procurement law.
- Authorities continue operationalizing the anticorruption commission (ACC) and collecting asset declarations of public officials; authorities have reconfirmed decision not to publish declarations.

### Financial sector and external statistics
- Progress on arrears clearance strategy: authorities have begun to make payments under the strategy to strengthen undercapitalized privately-owned banks.
- Approval from regional banking supervisor (COBAC) for the arrears’ clearance plan not yet obtained (SB for end-September 2025, not met) due to delays in COBAC’s internal statutory processes; submission to COBAC is complete and approval is expected in the coming months.
- Authorities aim to identify a strategic private partner for the systemic public bank and contracted an audit firm to prepare the bank’s market valuation.
- INEGE working toward compiling external sector statistics under BPM6 with Fund TA support (SB for end-April 2026); recent joint mission by STA and AFRITAC Central.
- BEAC office in Equatorial Guinea updated historical balance of payments data with notably lower errors and omissions.
- INEGE improving national accounts statistics and revising the base year, as well as improving computation of quarterly national accounts statistics.
- Implementation of 2022–23 safeguards recommendations at the BEAC has been slow; recommendations include strengthening internal audit and risk management practices and governance arrangements. BEAC is making efforts and staff continue follow-up.

### Program performance and staff appraisal
- Authorities met all end-June quantitative conditionality and two out of four structural benchmarks (SBs) for end-September 2025.
  - Met: end-September SBs on eliminating fees for travel on public school buses and approval of a new organizational structure for customs administration; end-December 2025 SB on submission of a budget consistent with program objectives to parliament.
  - Not met: end-September 2025 SB on approval of their arrears’ clearance plan by COBAC (due to COBAC delays); end-September 2025 SB on raising fuel prices by CFA 150 per liter (proposed to be replaced by new SB for end-February 2026 on raising fuel prices by CFA 75 per liter).
  - SB on promulgation of the social protection law (originally end-December 2025) proposed to be re-set for end-April 2026.
- Progress toward establishing a track record for a potential Use of Fund Resources (UFR) engagement hinges on implementation of governance reforms, in particular the end-April 2026 SB on publication of the hydrocarbon sector transparency report.
- Staff appraisal highlights:
  - Recent hydrocarbon production volatility accentuates macroeconomic challenges and the urgency of transforming the economy.
  - Economy expected to remain in a mild recession over the coming years; need to boost non-hydrocarbon growth and diversify away from oil and gas.
  - Execution of the 2025 budget preserves front-loaded fiscal adjustment from 2024 and is an appropriate start to fiscal consolidation.
  - Reforms in tax and customs administrations are generating additional non-hydrocarbon revenues and improving quality of adjustment.
  - Social protection measures such as free school buses have yielded immediate impact.
  - Health of the financial sector is a much-diminished concern thanks to reforms.
  - Continued fiscal adjustment is required as hydrocarbon revenues diminish; authorities developed a substantially tighter 2026 budget and plan additional fiscal effort over the medium term to deliver on objectives of a fiscal anchor of 50 percent of GDP and rebalancing the external sector. Beyond 2026, adjustment will likely require implementation of new tax policy measures in addition to continued strengthening of revenue administration.

*Source: Republic of Equatorial Guinea — IMF staff report excerpt.*

### 29.      Successful fiscal adjustment needs to be underpinned by stronger fiscal institutions

### 29.      Successful fiscal adjustment needs to be underpinned by stronger fiscal institutions

### Strengthening fiscal institutions and fiscal management
- Authorities acknowledge challenges in revenue administration and public financial management and are focused on high-impact reforms in customs and tax administration.
- Early results are already being yielded from customs and tax administration reforms, while "much more work" remains.
- Authorities have embarked on efforts to improve budget management to develop the capacity to execute fiscal plans "without waste and leakages."
- Urgency to improve social outcomes is recognized; it is "key" to deliver on intentions to identify and implement impactful social measures in the short term, alongside elaborating ambitious medium-term plans to expand social protection.

### Governance, transparency, and program commitments
- Addressing the country's governance deficit is identified as a "top priority."
- Staff regret the authorities’ decision not to publish the asset declarations of public officials and reiterate the "meaningfulness of this reform measure."
- Authorities have anchored governance and transparency work in a medium-term agenda focused on financial flows in the hydrocarbon sector.
- Progress has been made on multiple elements of the agenda, including:
  - steps towards implementation of a "treasury single account";
  - approval of a "public procurement law";
  - implementation of the "AML/CFT strategy."
- The highest short-term priority remaining is the publication of the "hydrocarbon sector transparency report," noted as a key program commitment.

*Source: 1gnqea2026001-source-pdf*

### 31.      Given Equatorial Guinea’s performance and commitments under the program, staff

### 31. Given Equatorial Guinea’s performance and commitments under the program, staff supports the completion of the third review under the SMP.

### Program endorsement
- Staff supports the completion of the third review under the SMP given Equatorial Guinea’s performance and commitments under the program.

### Macroeconomic projections and key real economy indicators
- Real GDP (series): 0.9, 0.9, -1.6, -6.4, 0.5, -2.7, 1.1, -1.3, 1.4, 1.1, 2.0, 2.1, 2.1, 2.4
- Hydrocarbon GDP (series): 0.4, 0.4, -6.4, -16.8, -2.6, -9.5, -1.2, -7.6, -1.2, -2.4, -1.1, -1.2, -1.1, -1.2
- Non-hydrocarbon GDP (series): 1.3, 1.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.8, 1.9, 2.7, 2.4, 3.1, 3.0, 4.1, 3.8, 4.1, 4.1
- GDP deflator (series): 2.5, 2.5, 3.0, 2.9, 1.0, 1.5, 0.8, 1.3, 1.6, 1.6, 2.4, 2.4, 3.2, 3.2
- Consumer prices (annual average, series): 3.4, 3.4, 2.9, (blanks in source), 2.8, 2.9, 3.2, 2.9, 2.9, 2.6, 2.6, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5
- Consumer prices (end of period, series): 3.4, 3.4, 2.9, (blanks in source), 2.8, 3.5, 3.2, 2.5, 2.6, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3

### Fiscal outlook and key government finance metrics
- Revenue (percent of GDP, series): 17.9, 17.9, 17.8, 17.9, 16.7, 15.7, 15.8, 14.5, 15.3, 14.7, 14.9, 14.9, 14.7, 15.2
- Hydrocarbon revenue (percent of GDP, series): 14.5, 14.5, 14.3, 14.2, 13.0, 11.7, 11.7, 9.8, 10.8, 9.4, 9.9, 8.9, 9.3, 8.7
- Non-hydrocarbon revenue (percent of GDP, series): 3.4, 3.4, 3.5, 3.7, 3.7, 4.0, 4.1, 4.7, 4.5, 5.3, 5.0, 5.9, 5.4, 6.5
- Expenditure (percent of GDP, series): 18.5, 18.5, 19.1, 20.1, 18.6, 19.2, 18.7, 19.4, 18.8, 19.2, 18.7, 18.9, 18.1, 18.1
- Overall fiscal balance (Commitment basis, percent of GDP, series): -0.6, -0.6, -1.3, -2.2, -1.9, -3.5, -2.9, -4.9, -3.5, -4.5, -3.8, -4.0, -3.5, -2.9
- Overall fiscal balance (Cash basis, percent of GDP, series): -1.0, -1.0, -2.0, -3.0, -2.6, -4.3, -3.6, -5.6, -4.1, -5.2, -4.4, -4.7, -4.0, -3.5
- Non-hydrocarbon primary balance (percent of GDP, series): -11.7, -11.7, -12.6, -13.2, -12.3, -12.2, -11.9, -11.5, -11.4, -10.4, -10.7, -9.4, -9.9, -8.2
- Non-hydrocarbon primary balance (% of NHGDP, series): -17.0, -17.0, -17.4, -17.8, -16.4, -15.5, -15.3, -14.0, -14.2, -12.4, -13.1, -11.0, -12.0, -9.5
- Change in domestic arrears (series): -0.3, -0.3, -0.7, -0.8, -0.7, -0.8, -0.6, -0.7, -0.6, -0.7, -0.6, -0.7, -0.6, -0.6
- Summary central government: Net lending/borrowing (overall fiscal balance, in billions CFA francs, series): -43, -43, -104, -165, -153, -262, -237, -364, -290, -341, -328, -319, -319, -241

### Debt and balance-sheet indicators
- Total public debt (percent of GDP, series): 36.4, 36.4, 37.0, 39.2, 38.4, 42.2, 40.6, 46.1, 42.9, 48.3, 44.8, 49.2, 46.0, 48.5
- Domestic debt (percent of GDP, series): 28.7, 28.7, 28.0, 33.2, 27.9, 36.2, 28.8, 39.5, 30.2, 40.9, 31.7, 41.3, 32.9, 40.2
- External debt (percent of GDP, series): 7.8, 7.8, 9.0, 6.0, 10.5, 5.9, 11.8, 6.6, 12.7, 7.4, 13.1, 8.0, 13.1, 8.3
- External debt service-to-exports ratio (percent, series): 6.2, 5.0, 5.7, 5.3, 6.2, 6.0, 6.1, 6.1, 6.4, 7.0, 6.7, 8.5, 6.7, 9.9
- External debt service/government revenue (percent, series): 7.9, 7.9, 7.4, 7.4, 7.7, 7.9, 7.2, 7.5, 7.3, 7.8, 7.3, 8.7, 7.5, 9.4

### External sector and balance of payments
- Current account balance (incl. official transfers; - = deficit, percent of GDP, series): -3.2, -0.7, -3.3, -1.9, -4.5, -2.8, -3.8, -3.2, -3.8, -3.3, -3.7, -3.1, -3.6, -3.1
- Exports, f.o.b. (annual percent change, series): -7.1, 5.7, 1.6, -9.5, -8.7, -16.2, -7.8, -13.9, -5.0, -6.0, -2.6, -3.4, 0.6, -0.2
- Hydrocarbon exports (annual percent change, series): -8.4, 5.9, 1.7, -9.8, -10.2, -17.0, -9.5, -14.9, -6.5, -6.7, -4.0, -4.1, -0.7, -0.7
- Non-hydrocarbon exports (annual percent change, series): 2.6, 1.5, 1.8, -6.9, 1.0, -3.8, 2.1, 0.7, 3.1, 2.9, 4.5, 4.5, 5.2, 5.5
- Imports, f.o.b. (annual percent change, series): -8.9, -9.8, 2.2, -1.9, -1.9, -9.4, -1.7, -6.1, -0.8, -3.9, 0.5, -2.3, 1.1, -1.8
- Terms of trade (annual percent change, series): -9.0, 10.6, -0.9, 2.9, -1.7, -12.3, -1.4, -11.0, -1.0, -6.3, -0.8, -4.9, -0.7, -1.4
- Balance of Payments (current account, billions of CFA francs, series): -244, -52, -256, -143, -354, -204, -312, -233, -316, -246, -326, -246, -331, -261
- Trade balance (billions of CFA francs, series): 92, 91, 1,384, 944, 1,143, 799, 879, 684, 707, 615, 653, 574, 625, 573, 633

### Monetary and financial sector (selected)
- Broad money (annual percent change, series): 2.6, 3.2, 2.7, 2.7, 2.9, 2.9, 3.2, 3.2, 2.6, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.0, 2.6
- Net foreign assets (BEAC and commercial banks combined, end period, in billions CFA francs, series): 395, 710, 374, 539, 279, 413, 219, 347, 190, 330, 208, 345, 230, 368
- Broad money (end of period, billions CFA francs, series): 1,477, 1,486, 1,517, 1,526, 1,562, 1,570, 1,611, 1,620, 1,653, 1,664, 1,698, 1,709, 1,733, 1,743
- Credit to the private sector (in billions CFA francs, series): 675, 675, 715, 715, 757, 757, 800, 799, 845, 845, 901, 901, 962, 961

### Oil and hydrocarbon-related memorandum items
- Oil price (U.S. dollars a barrel, series): 79.9, 79.9, 67.7, 69.5, 63.3, 66.3, 63.7, 66.2, 64.7, 66.8, 65.6, 67.5, 66.4, 68.0
- Oil volume (crude + condensado, millions of barrels, series): 29.1, 29.1, 26.8, 24.6, 25.1, 22.3, 24.4, 20.8, 23.6, 19.6, 22.9, 19.0, 22.2, 18.5
- Gas volume (millions of bbls of oil equivalent, series): 51.8, 51.8, 49.2, 42.6, 49.5, 38.4, 49.9, 35.3, 50.2, 35.7, 50.5, 36.0, 50.8, 36.2
- Total Hydrocarbon Volume (millions of BOE, series): 81.0, 81.0, 76.0, 67.2, 74.7, 60.7, 74.2, 56.2, 78.8, 55.4, 73.4, 55.0, 73.1, 54.7

*Sources: Data provided by the Equatoguinean authorities; and staff estimates and projections.*

### 1. Total financing requirements

### 1. Total financing requirements

### Key headline financing figures (from tables)
- Current account deficit: 40385420246585363514413521437537436546461
- Trade balance (series): 1,532 2,284 01,968 1,318 1,563 1,129 1,255 1,014 1,157 945 1,106 944 1,119
- Exports (series): 2,934 3,581 2,982 3,242 2,723 2,717 2,510 2,339 2,384 2,198 2,323 2,123 2,337 2,119
- Imports (series): -1,402 -1,298 -1,432 -1,273 -1,405 -1,154 -1,381 -1,084 -1,371 -1,041 -1,378 -1,018 -1,394 -1,000
- Services (net) (series): -653 -753 -666 -735 -668 -700 -671 -684 -680 -684 -697 -697 -720 -717
- Income (net) (series): -1,159 -1,445 -1,178 -1,315 -1,110 -1,068 -847 -829 -729 -752 -655 -681 -634 -691
- Transfers (net) (series): -124 -171 -126 -163 -124 -158 -124 -155 -126 -158 -130 -164 -136 -172
- Debt amortization (series): 169 169 159 160 152 154 171 132 207 142 264 166 319 193
- Net change in external arrears (increase =-) : 44000000000000
- Net change in government deposits abroad (inc.=+): 99000000000000
- Net change in net reserves (increase=+): -411 -385 -56 -308 -159 -233 -95 -110 -50 -332 434 29

### Contextual note on totals
- The top of the financing requirements section contains an extended numeric line: 175-11752398577283589435678546804605899684

---

### 2. Total financing sources

### Main source categories and series
- Capital transfers: 00000000000000
- Foreign direct investment (net) (series): 1 -6 11 24 9 58 50 124 121 169 220 206 285 262
- Portfolio investment (net) (series): 20 20 21 19 21 19 21 19 22 19 23 20 24 21
- Debt financing (series): 153 -7750 1775 0720 6518 2925 3535 7561 3795 90400
- Public sector (series): 773 600 363 129 370 213 380 275 397 292 419 308
- Non-public sector (series): 146 -841 4177 1447 7148 7915 5831 6387 17192
- Errors and omissions: 00000000000000

### Metadata and source
- Source: IMF staff estimates
- Projections horizon shown: 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
- The same extended numeric header appears: 175-11752398577283589435678546804605899684

---

### 3. Banking sector financial soundness indicators (2018–23)

### Capital adequacy and balance-sheet metrics
- Total bank regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets (Basel I calculation): 29.5 -2.8 -1.6 -6.2 0.6 -39.8 -1.5
- Total capital (net worth) to assets: 12.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.3 1.2 -15.6 0.0
- Total assets (growth): 3.4 -10.3 -0.1 53.2 -30.2 -13.8 7.9

### Asset quality
- Non-performing loans (gross) to total loans (gross): 36.9 49.1 52.2 55.1 55.4 56.3 56.0
- Non-performing loans less provisions to regulatory capital: 135.2 -1659.1 -3238.4 -1007.8 10133.9 -60.5 -4275.9

### Earnings, liquidity, credit, and other indicators
- Return on equity: 3.7 -0.6 -3.9 -3.9 -2.0 3.3
- Return on assets: 0.9 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.5
- Non interest expense to gross income: 67.8 81.7 115.1 106.3 97.2 91.9
- Liquid assets to total assets: 30.3 20.2 19.9 12.7 21.9 26.3 32.1
- Liquid assets to short-term liabilities: 170.1 120.7 131.5 130.3 152.1 159.9 204.0
- Total deposits to total (noninterbank) loans: 98.1 104.0 98.5 102.6 115.9 116.5 136.3
- Gross loan (banks' book) - bn FCFA: 1283 1021 1028 1059 988 898 4992
- Gross loan - annualized growth rate: 1.2 -20.5 0.7 3.0 -6.7 -0.1 2.2
- Foreign-currency-denominated loans to total loans: 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.1
- Foreign-currency-denominated liabilities to total liabilities: 1.5 1.4 1.7

### Data sources and notes
- Source: Banking Commission of Central Africa (COBAC)
- Calculated according to the Basel I guidance
- Return in ROE is calculated based on annualized net profit before tax

---

### 4. Risk Assessment Matrix — Selected risks, likelihoods, impacts, and recommended responses

### Conjunctural risks
- Escalating Trade Measures and Prolonged Uncertainty
  - Relative Likelihood: High (↓)
  - Expected Impact if realized: High, ST
  - Recommended Policy Responses:
    - Enhance competitiveness and promote diversification to support economic resilience to external shocks.
    - Improve the business environment to mitigate the effect of uncertainties on investors’ decisions.
    - Vigilantly monitor the financial sector development in coordination with CEMAC.

- Geopolitical Tensions
  - Relative Likelihood: High (↑)
  - Expected Impact if realized: High, ST
  - Recommended Policy Responses:
    - As an oil and gas exporter, save windfall hydrocarbon earnings to rebuild macroeconomic buffers.
    - Adopt temporary fiscal measures to protect food security for vulnerable population.
    - Diversify non-traditional sectors.
    - Vigilantly monitor financial sector developments in coordination with CEMAC.

- Commodity Price Volatility
  - Relative Likelihood: High (↑)
  - Expected Impact if realized: High, ST
  - Recommended Policy Responses:
    - As an oil and gas exporter, save windfall hydrocarbon earnings to rebuild macroeconomic buffers.
    - Provide temporary and targeted transfers to the vulnerable.
    - Allow a gradual pass-through of international prices phasing out generalized subsidies.

### Domestic risks
- Weak governance and capacity
  - Relative Likelihood: Medium (↓)
  - Expected Impact if realized: High, ST, MT
  - Recommended Policy Responses:
    - Press ahead with governance and PFM reforms; request technical assistance and training to raise capacity.

- Banking sector weaknesses
  - Relative Likelihood: Medium (↓)
  - Expected Impact if realized: Medium, ST
  - Recommended Policy Responses:
    - Expedite the settlement of domestic arrears and continue ongoing actions to restore the financial health of the banking industry.

---

### 5. Recent and upcoming capacity development (selected items and dates)

### Diversification and sectoral support
- Technology promotion training to private sector: Nov-24, Ministry of Transport, UNIDO
- ISPS ports certifications and capacity building, Port evaluation: 2024, Ministry of Transport, UNDP
- Cocoa Value chain study: 2024, Ministry of Environment, UNDP
- Digital Economy Assessment Follow-up: Jan – Feb 2025, MOF, World Bank
- National Digital Agenda: 2024 – 2025, Ministry of Transport, UNDP
- Wood value chain/ industrialization study: 2024 – 2025, Ministry of Environment, UNDP
- Nation branding for Equatorial Guinea: TBD 2025, Ministry of Tourism, UNDP

### Fiscal and public financial management
- Implementation of ASYCUDA in Bata: Ongoing, MOF (Customs), UNCTAD
- Implementation of Debt Management and Financial Analysis System (DMFAS): Ongoing, Treasury, UNCTAD
- Implementation of the Integrated Tax Revenue Management System (SIGREF): Ongoing, MOF, SIMAC
- Public Finance Review and BOOST Mission: Feb 11 – 16, 2025, MOF & Treasury
- Training in debt management fundamentals: Apr 21-25, 2025, Treasury, IMF AFRITAC CENTER
- Implementing accrual accounting: Sep 2025, MOF & Treasury, IMF AFRITAC CENTER
- Diagnosis and drafting of Manual for execution of public expenditure: Sep 9 –15, 2025; Oct 2025; Nov 4–11, 2025; Accounting centralization process Nov 1–22, 2025 — all MOF, IMF AFRITAC CENTER

### Governance, statistics, and other support (selected)
- AML/CFT strategy and action plan: Nov 2024–Apr 2025, ANIF, IMF LEG
- GFS broadens sectoral coverage: May 5–6, 2025, MOF and Treasury, IMF STA
- Training – ISA and SUT compilation: Jun 2 – 13, 2025, INEGE, IMF AFRITAC CENTER
- Support for enhancing consistency between national accounts and BOP statistics: Dec 2025, BEAC – INEGE, IMF AFRITAC CENTER
- Launch of Equatorial Guinea Country Economic Memorandum: Mar 3 – 6, 2025, MOF & Treasury & other key stakeholders, World Bank Economic Policy (MTI)

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### 6. Letter of Intent and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies — Key points

### Recent macroeconomic developments and outlook (selected figures)
- 2023: Growth contracted by 5.1 percent.
- 2024: Annual growth of 0.9 percent; hydrocarbon growth 0.4 percent; non-hydrocarbon growth 1.3 percent.
- 2024: Consumer price increase 3.4 percent.
- 2024: Primary deficit of 17 percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP (a 5.3 percent consolidation from 22.3 percent in 2023).
- End-2024: Debt stood at 36.4 percent of GDP; deposits at 17.7 percent of GDP.
- 2025: Growth projected at -6.4 percent; hydrocarbons sector contraction of 16.8 percent; non-hydrocarbons sector expansion of 2.3 percent.
- 2025: Average inflation rate fell from a peak of 3.5 percent in March to 2.8 percent in September.
- 2025 projection: Non-hydrocarbon primary deficit of 17.8 percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP.
- 2025 projection: Current account deficit estimated at 1.9 percent of GDP.
- Medium term (2025–2030): Average growth projected at -0.8 percent; non-oil sector growth 2.9 percent annually; hydrocarbon production decline -6.5 percent annually.

### Program implementation and structural benchmarks (SBs)
- As of end-June 2025: Met five quantitative targets (QTs) and three indicative targets (ITs).
- Structural benchmarks status:
  - SB met (end-September 2025): Eliminated fares of public-school buses.
  - SB met (end-September 2025): Approved new organizational customs structure.
  - SB met (end-December 2025): Submitted to Parliament a 2026 budget consistent with program objectives; Parliament subsequently approved the budget.
  - SB not met (end-September 2025): Submitted required documentation to COBAC for approval of government arrears clearance plan; COBAC has not yet approved due to capacity limitations.
  - SB not met (end-September 2025): Planned increase in fuel prices of 150 CFA francs per liter was not implemented; government committed to a smaller increase of 75 CFA francs per liter by end-February 2026 to limit impact on vulnerable populations and public transport prices.
- Additional reforms launched: Single Office for Vehicle Document Processing (OFIVEGE); ENTAUT application to control expenditure of autonomous entities and companies with State participation.
- Government requests: Completion of third review of the Staff Monitored Program (SMP); reset of SB on promulgation of the social protection law to end-April 2026.

### Fiscal policy stance and actions
- Commitment to maintain fiscal discipline in 2025 following significant adjustment in 2024.
- Despite reduction in tax rates under new tax law (effective January 2025), a slight increase in non-hydrocarbon revenues is projected due to tax administration reforms.
- Expenditure aligned with approved 2025 budget except capital expenditure, which was limited by approximately 20 billion CFA francs below budget to compensate for delay in reducing fuel subsidies.

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*Source: IMF staff estimates and IMF report content as provided in the supplied PDF content.*

### 8.      The Parliament has approved a 2026 budget consistent with program objectives.

### 8.      The Parliament has approved a 2026 budget consistent with program objectives.

### Budget stance and macro anchors
- The budget entails an adjustment in the non-hydrocarbon primary balance of 2.3 percentage points of non-hydrocarbon GDP, achieved mostly through capital expenditure rationalization, and a small reduction in fuel subsidies.
- This adjustment is consistent with the public debt anchor of 50% of GDP and the re-establishment of external balance.

### Fuel subsidy reform and implementation plan
- Plan to start reducing fuel subsidies in early 2026 with a fuel price increase of 75 CFA francs per liter (SB proposed for end-February 2026).
- Intention to phase out costly and inefficient fuel subsidies while protecting vulnerable people through strengthened social protection measures, including provisions associated with the upcoming Social Protection Law.
- For the first price increase, authorities aim to avoid raising public transport costs because it will be implemented before effective social protection measures are available.
- A compensation plan is designed for taxi drivers and other public transport providers to ensure stable fares despite higher fuel costs.
- The originally planned 150 CFA francs price increase (SB for end-September 2025) would have resulted in higher fares and therefore was not pursued (SB for end-September 2025, not met). Instead, the increase will begin at 75 CFA francs.

### Structural fiscal reforms — expenditure, income, social
- Expenditure:
  - With IMF technical assistance, a budget execution manual for expenditure procedures is being prepared (SB for end-December 2025).
  - Approved a new procurement law to improve efficiency, impact, and transparency of public spending (developed with World Bank technical assistance).
  - Progress in incorporating more expenditures into the integrated public financial management system (CONTFIN), including public investment expenditures during 2026.
  - Concrete steps toward adoption of a single treasury account are being implemented.
- Income (revenue administration):
  - Approved a new organizational structure for customs administration (SB for end-September 2025, met) and working on prompt implementation.
  - Preparing implementing regulations for the new tax law, planned to be issued at the beginning of 2026.
  - ASYCUDA installed at main customs points in Bioko Island and Bata; expansion to other mainland customs points planned by end of 2026.
  - After positive impact from stricter application of customs exemptions, authorities will continue a thorough review of future exemption applications.
- Social expenditure and protection:
  - The indicative target on social expenditure was met in the first half of 2025 and is planned to be met during the rest of the SMP.
  - To partially offset anticipated fuel price increases and encourage school attendance, fares were eliminated for all students traveling on public school buses (SB for end-September 2025, met).
  - Working toward approval and enactment of the new Social Protection Law (SB for end-December 2025, proposed to be re-set for end-April 2026), currently under consideration by the senate.
  - Exploring ways to implement and finance new provisions under the Social Protection Law.
  - Plan to update the Single Social Registry based on results of the recently published household survey as a critical step toward a well-targeted cash transfer program.
  - Short-term identification of viable social protection measures to compensate the most vulnerable for future fuel price increases and to strengthen social safety nets; IMF technical assistance will be used to assess cost and impact.

### Addressing financial sector vulnerabilities
- Payments were made under the arrears’ clearance strategy according to the government-approved payment schedule to strengthen the financial position of undercapitalized private banks.
- Approval of the arrears clearance plan by the regional banking supervisor (COBAC) has not yet been obtained (SB for end-September 2025, not met) due to delays in COBAC's internal statutory processes; plan details were submitted and approval is expected in the coming months.
- Pending COBAC approval will allow banks to eliminate non-performing loan provisions related to arrears with construction companies.
- Seeking a strategic private partner for the systemically important public bank and obtaining a market valuation of the bank from an audit firm.

### Improving governance and transparency
- Commitment to publish an annual report on transparency in the hydrocarbon sector, detailing production, audited payments between the government and extractive hydrocarbon companies following standards of requisites 3 and 4 of the EITI, and an independent reconciliation of flows between the government and those companies (SB for end-April 2026).
  - An international consulting firm has been hired to conduct this reconciliation.
  - The report will follow EITI Requirement 3 and Requirement 4 standards and Requirement 4.9, including application of International Standards on Auditing and presentation of findings from an independent international consulting firm using ISRS 4400 methodology.
- Focus on strengthening the rule of law and implementation of an AML/CFT strategy; IMF technical assistance requested for AML/CFT.
- Medium-term governance strategy focused on hydrocarbon sector financial flows; measures considered or completed include:
  - Publication of the contracts in the hydrocarbon sector (SB met in 2024).
  - Publication of data on production and exports, and reconciliation of audited payments (SB for end-April 2026).
  - Development of a monitoring plan reflecting recommendations of audits of state-owned hydrocarbon companies.
  - Publication of an inventory report of published hydrocarbon contracts and related agreements.
  - Publication of a report analyzing hydrocarbon sector financial flows relative to contracts and legal framework.
  - Implementation of the single treasury account with steps including finalizing account inventory updates, further regulatory development, and establishing criteria for closing accounts.
  - Periodic publication of the budget and its execution, including flows in accounts receiving payments from extractive sector companies, starting in 2026.
  - Periodic publication of financial ratings in local currency after the first report by agency Bloomfield.
  - Approval of the public procurement law (done in November 2025) and subsequent implementation.
  - Development of a medium-term spending framework focused on public investment planning.
  - Expanding coverage of CONTFIN's expenditure monitoring system, starting with implementation of the new budget execution manual, expansion to government offices in the continental region, and inclusion of investment expenditures.

### Statistics and capacity development
- With IMF assistance, INEGE has begun collecting external trade statistics following BPM6 methodology (SB by end-April 2026) to facilitate comparison between INEGE and BEAC statistics.
- With IMF technical assistance, continued progress on statistical improvements in national accounts, including conversion of the base year and development of quarterly national accounts.
- Improving statistical collection of fiscal and debt data in coordination with the IMF's statistics department.
- Continued collaboration with the IMF and other international partners on capacity development (CD) to support the economic program and reinforce national institutions; ongoing discussions on CD needs to implement the reform program within the SMP framework.

### Program monitoring and reporting
- Government commits to frequent consultations with IMF technical staff on program implementation.
- Ministry of Finance will continue monthly monitoring of the SMP and inform the IMF of significant developments or economic policy decisions affecting the program.
- Government will provide detailed information and data as specified in the Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU), which includes agreed definitions and reporting procedures.

### Quantitative targets, program exchange rates, and TMU highlights
- The TMU describes reporting procedures; definitions and calculation methods; quantitative and indicative targets (QTs and ITs); adjustors for targets; structural benchmarks; and other MEFP commitments.
- All foreign exchange assets, liabilities, and flows will be valued on the basis of "program exchange rates" except items affecting government fiscal balances, which will be valued at the current exchange rate. Program exchange rates as of March 28, 2024, are:
  - CFAF 606.75 to USD 1;
  - CFAF 655.96 to EUR 1;
  - CFAF 83.96 to CNY 1;
  - CFAF 481.07 to GBP 1;
  - CFAF 802.99 to SDR 1.
- Program exchange rates for any currency not mentioned will be computed based on official IMF rates for March 28, 2024.
- Data on all variables subject to quantitative targets shall be transmitted periodically to the IMF per the timetable in Annex 1; any updates reported within one week. Authorities shall consult with IMF staff on new information relevant for monitoring performance against program objectives.
- Definition note: "Government" refers to the central government of the Republic of Equatorial Guinea as defined in GFSM 2001, paragraphs 2.48-2.50. Fiscal year runs January 1 to December 31. The cumulative floor for Central Government Non-Hydrocarbon Revenue and other quantitative objectives are measured cumulatively from the start of the calendar year to which they apply.

*Source: 1gnqea2026001-source-pdf - 8.      The Parliament has approved a 2026 budget consistent with program objectives.*

### 9. Hydrocarbon revenue is   defined  as    the  sum  of    hydrocarbon  tax  and  hydrocarbon nontax

### 9. Hydrocarbon revenue is defined as the sum of hydrocarbon tax and hydrocarbon nontax revenue

### Definitions and scope
- Hydrocarbon revenue = the sum of hydrocarbon tax and hydrocarbon nontax revenue.
- Hydrocarbon non-tax revenue is defined as the sum of:
  - royalties on gross production;
  - premiums or fees for surface rights;
  - transfer and sales taxes charged on capital gains not invested in Equatorial Guinea;
  - discovery, production, and marketing bonuses;
  - income from export duties;
  - net equity income from oil and gas;
  - income from shareholders' interests and other income flows paid by oil and gas companies;
  - excluding indirect and special taxes (for example, the gasoline tax).

### Reporting and notification requirements
- The authorities shall notify the IMF staff if changes in the fiscal regime for hydrocarbon production leads to fluctuations in revenue flows.
- Hydrocarbon revenues are recorded on a cash basis.
- Reporting: The data shall be reported to the IMF no later than 75 days after the assessment date.

### Non-hydrocarbon primary balance (Cumulative floor for Central Government Non-Hydrocarbon Primary Balance)
- Definition: non-hydrocarbon primary balance = non-hydrocarbon revenue (not including income from interest on government assets), less non-hydrocarbon primary government expenditure.
- Non-hydrocarbon revenue = total government revenue (as defined in GFSM 2001, Chapter 5, recorded on a cash basis), less revenue from hydrocarbons.
- Restatement: Hydrocarbon revenue = the sum of hydrocarbon tax and hydrocarbon nontax revenue (see definitions above).
- Non-hydrocarbon primary government expenditure = total expenditure of Central Government less interest payments (on domestic and foreign debt) and hydrocarbon-related expenditures made by GEPetrol on behalf of the Government.
- Total central government expenditure = sum of personnel expenses, current expenditures in goods and services of the government, transfers and subsidies, interest payment (national and foreign) and capital expense or investment. All these expenses are registered on an accrual basis, unless otherwise indicated. The definition of all the accounts is the observed in GFSM 2001 (paragraphs 6.1-6.88).
- Reporting: Data shall be sent to the IMF no later than 75 days after the assessment date.

### Ceilings, adjusters, and definitions for financing measures
- Net BEAC credit to the government:
  - Definition: BEAC's gross lending to central government, less central government deposits at the BEAC as at the end of the reporting period.
  - Reporting: Data shall be reported to the IMF no later than 75 days after the assessment date.
  - Adjuster: The ceiling on net BEAC credit to the government shall be adjusted relative to the program target as follows:
    - (a) Upwards by the shortfall, relative to adjusted program targets, in new external debt contracted or guaranteed by the central government.
    - (b) Upwards by the shortfall, relative to unadjusted program targets, in net commercial bank credit to the central government.
    - (c) Upwards by the excess in the payment of arrears relative to program projections (Table 1).
- New external debt contracted or guaranteed by the central government:
  - Definition: external debt = debt borrowed or serviced in a currency other than the CFA franc. The debt expressed in foreign exchange shall be converted to CFA francs at the program exchange rate. The target measures debt disbursements.
  - Debt is defined as a current liability created under a contractual arrangement requiring future payments in assets or services; primary forms include loans, suppliers' credits, leases (present value at inception), and penalties/judicially awarded damages that constitute debt.
  - Reporting: Data shall be reported to the IMF no later than 75 days after the assessment date.
  - Adjuster: The ceiling on new external debt contracted or guaranteed by the central government should be adjusted upward by the shortfall in hydrocarbon revenues relative to program projections (Table 2).

### Arrears and coverage
- External arrears:
  - Definition: any external debt obligation (as defined in paragraph 22) that is not paid on the terms specified in the contract or legal document establishing the debt. Arrears on external debt payments = difference between amount owed under the contract and amount actually paid after the due date.
  - Reporting: Authorities will report to IMF staff any external payment arrears immediately when they arise.
  - Coverage: This quantitative performance target covers external arrears resulting from debt contracted or guaranteed by the central government. The QT excludes arrears on external financial obligations of the government subject to debt rescheduling. Monitoring: applied on a continuous basis.

- Domestic arrears:
  - Definition: commitments owed to residents under contractual obligations, unpaid 90 days after the due date (considering contractual grace periods). Includes direct arrears on central government debt, suppliers, recurring payments, and capital expenditure. Excludes changes arising from ongoing audit review.
  - Reporting: Data shall be reported to the IMF no later than 75 days after the assessment date.
  - Cumulative flows from the beginning of the fiscal year (in CFAF billions):
    - End-June 2025562
    - End-December 20251,124

### Net commercial bank credit to the central government
- Definition: change in the government's net position vis-a-vis the subregional (CEMAC) banking system since the end of the previous year, plus net issuances of bonds (issuances minus amortizations) during the current year in the sub-regional market (CEMAC).
- The ceiling on net domestic financing is not applicable to new agreements on domestic debt restructuring and securitization of domestic arrears.
- Reporting: Data shall be reported to the IMF no later than 75 days after the assessment date.
- Adjuster: The ceiling shall be adjusted upward, relative to adjusted program targets, by the shortfall in net BEAC credit to the central government.

### Floor for social spending by the Central Government
- For SMP purposes, the floor for social spending includes current expenditures in education, health, social protection, and water and sanitation.
- Current expenditures include:
  - (i) funding, maintenance and rehabilitation in education, health, social protection, and water and sanitation;
  - (ii) technical assistance in education and sanitation;
  - (iii) wage bill for education and sanitation;
  - (iv) social sector institutional projects;
  - (v) goods and services purchases;
  - (vi) subsidies and transfers to social sectors;
  - (vii) other subsidies.
- The definition excludes scholarships and incentives for tertiary education.

### Information and reporting schedules (selected requirements)
- The government will prepare and send by email to the IMF data for the items shown in table 5 within 75 days after the end of the month.
- Selected reporting frequencies and target dates (as presented in Table 3):
  - Monetary survey. BEAC: Monthly, within 45 days from the end of the month.
  - BEAC loans to central government. BEAC: Monthly, within 45 days from the end of the month.
  - Government deposits at the BEAC. BEAC: Monthly, within 45 days from the end of the month.
  - Central government position with commercial banks (loans to central government and deposits by central government). BEAC: Monthly, within 45 days from the end of the month.
  - Other sources of financing not specified above (including INSESO, bonds, Treasury notes and bills issued in CFAF). Ministry of Finance and Budget (MFB): Monthly, within 75 days from the end of the month.
  - Foreign deposits by the central government, by type of foreign currency and bank. MFB: Monthly, within 75 days from the end of the month.
  - External financing: detailed information on disbursements, amortization, interest, exceptional financing, zero coupon bonds, and accumulation of arrears. MFB: Monthly, within 75 days from the end of the month.
  - Acquisition of financial interests in hydrocarbons sector projects. MFEP: Monthly, within 75 days from the end of the month.
  - Central government budget execution, broken down by category (revenues, current and capital expenditures). MFB: Quarterly, within 75 days from the end of the month.
  - Breakdown of tax revenue by type of tax. MFB: Quarterly, within 75 days from the end of the month.
  - Total income, broken down by category. MFB: Quarterly, within 75 days from the end of the month.
  - Income from hydrocarbons, broken down by type (tax or nontax). MFB: Quarterly, within 75 days from the end of the month.
  - Social spending (broken down by program, capital expenditure, and current expenditure). MFB: Quarterly, within 75 days from the end of the month.
  - Subsidies and transfers broken down by category. MFB: Quarterly, within 75 days from the end of the month.
  - Stock of domestic debt by category. MFB: Monthly, within 45 days from the end of the month.
  - Disbursements, bond issuances and services of domestic debt (interest and principal) by category. MFB: Monthly, within 45 days from the end of the month.
  - Stock of domestic arrears (including arrears on interest payments). MFB: Quarterly, within 75 days from the end of the quarter.
  - Stock of external debt. Include values for each type of foreign currency and the exchange rates used. MFB: Monthly, within 45 days from the end of the month.
  - Loan-by-loan accounting of all new loans contracted or guaranteed by the public sector, including detailed information on amounts, currency, and conditions, and the relevant supporting documents. MFB: Monthly, within 45 days from the end of the month.
  - Accounting of arrears on the external debt by creditor (if any), with detailed explanations. MFB: Monthly, within 45 days from the end of the month.
  - Provisional balance of payments statistics. BEAC: Annually, within three months from the end of the year.
  - Oil and gas exports (values, volumes, and prices) broken down by product and oilfield. MMH: Monthly, within 45 days from the end of the month.
  - Provisional national accounts (from the supply side and the expense side). INEGE: Annually, within three months from the end of the year.
  - Consumer price index. INEGE: Monthly, within 45 days from the end of the month.

*Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2026/english/1gnqea2026001-source-pdf.pdf*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2026/english/1gnqea2026001-source-pdf.pdf_