## 1. Official Resolution of the Gold Mining Dispute

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [1. Official Resolution of the Gold Mining Dispute](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2026/english/1mliea2026001.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2026/english/1mliea2026001.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/cr/2026/english/1mliea2026001.pdf.json)

---

### Context and security dynamics
- Security status: improved since the second half of last year but "remains volatile"; sharp surge in terrorist attacks from mid-2025 disrupted transport, damaged infrastructure and industrial facilities, and weakened economic activity; conditions began improving in late November, particularly in the capital.
- Persistent issues: occasional fuel shortages, electricity outages, internal displacement, and elevated food insecurity.
- Key indicators cited:
  - Internal Displacements (thousands of people): time series shown through 2025 (source: IOM; latest data as of September 2025).
  - Food Insecurity, 2020–2026 (millions of people): IPC phases indicating Phase 3–5 severity.
  - As of end-October 2025, 2,300 schools were not functional, impacting 700,000 students (source: UNICEF and Mali Education Cluster).
  - Fatalities due to violence: ACLED and IMF Staff computations (time series through 2025).

### Resolution of the gold mining dispute — summary and immediate effects
- Timeline and main terms:
  - On November 24, 2025, the mine operator and government agreed to resolve all outstanding disputes.
  - Agreement actions: withdrew legal charges against the company and its staff; ended provisional administration of the mine; restored operational control to the operator; led to withdrawal of arbitration claims before ICSID.
  - Regulatory and fiscal outcomes: the mine was brought under the 2023 mining code; the company agreed to participate in the Mining Fund; the license was renewed for 10 years in February 2026.
  - Settlement payment: CFAF 244 billion (1.4 percent of 2025 GDP), including VAT offsets and an earlier advance payment.
  - Production expectations: gold production is expected to recover gradually in 2026 to at least 10 tons, up from less than 3 tons in 2025.
- Staff macro effects (2026):
  - Positive effect on growth: about 0.2 percentage points.
  - Additional fiscal revenues: about 0.6 percentage points of GDP.
  - Positive contribution to the balance of payments: about 4.6 percent of GDP (from export of additional gold produced at the mine).
  - Settlement added CFAF 144 billion to December 2025 revenues (noted in fiscal discussion).

### Recent economic developments and near-term outlook
- Real GDP and sectoral performance:
  - Growth in first three quarters of 2025: 5.7 percent, up from 4.3 percent in 2024.
  - Secondary sector: rebound from -2.4 to 3.4 percent (supported in part by lithium production).
  - Agriculture: expanded strongly by 8.3 percent (yoy).
  - Real GDP growth projected: 4.9 percent for 2025 (reflecting weaker Q4 amid heightened insecurity); rebound to around 5.5 percent in 2026, assuming gradual security improvements, higher gold output, a better business climate, and recovery in credit.
  - Medium-term growth: expected to stabilize around 5¼ percent, supported by higher public investment.
- Inflation:
  - Estimated at 2.9 percent in 2025, easing to 2.2 percent in 2026, and stabilizing around 2 percent in the medium term.
  - Drivers: moderated food price pressures after elevated early-2025 readings; second-half 2025 rises in durable goods and services; temporary impact of 2025 tax increases expected to dissipate.
- External sector and oil price assumption:
  - Current account deficit: narrowed to 0.9 percent of GDP in 2025 (from 4.3 percent in 2024); projected to remain stable at 1.0 percent of GDP in 2026.
  - 2025 improvement drivers: higher gold prices, one-off payments related to the gold mine settlement agreement, renewal of license of a large telecommunications operator; partly offset by somewhat higher fuel imports and weak gold production.
  - Assumption for oil: a 15 percent increase in the average price of oil for 2026 compared to 2025 is incorporated into projections.
  - Overall balance projections: 2.5 percent of GDP in 2025 and 2.8 percent in 2026.
  - Medium-term outlook: external position expected to strengthen as gold production normalizes and external financing gradually resumes from 2027.
- Risks:
  - Downside tilt: renewed insecurity, persistently high regional financing costs, return of fuel shortages, higher oil prices (linked to conflict in the Middle East), and volatility in gold markets.
  - Potential upside from gold: while resolution may boost output, gold remains vulnerable to insecurity.

### Fiscal outlook, public debt, and financing
- Fiscal deficits and revenue:
  - Fiscal deficit: expected to fall to 1.6 percent of GDP in 2025 (from 2.2 percent in 2024) due to mining revenues and new tax measures; 2025 projection revised downward from 2.7 percent at first SMP review to 1.6 percent currently.
  - For 2026: staff expect a fiscal deficit of 2.4 percent of GDP.
  - Government measures in 2025: new mobile money taxes, special mining levies, higher taxes on alcohol and certain foodstuffs; part of proceeds earmarked for dedicated funds supporting basic infrastructure and social development.
  - Medium-term fiscal path: under current policies and assuming elevated gold prices and full mine operations, deficits in 2027–31 expected to hover around 2½ percent of GDP.
- Debt issuance, maturities and arrears:
  - By end-2025, regional bond issuances totaled CFAF 1,035 billion and syndicated loans CFAF 100 billion (below issuance target of CFAF 1,255 billion).
  - About CFAF 1,285 billion in regional bonds and syndicated loans mature in 2026; government issuance target for 2026: CFAF 1,450 billion.
  - Public debt: expected to fall in 2026 and ease gradually over the medium term.
  - Arrears as of end-2025: domestic arrears CFAF 213 billion (1.2 percent of GDP); external arrears CFAF 102.8 billion (0.7 percent of GDP). External arrears increased slightly since end-2024, including an increase of over CFAF 6 billion since September 30. Domestic arrears declined substantially for the first time since 2022.
  - Debt sustainability: 2025 Article IV DSA assessed Mali at moderate risk of external and public debt distress; assessment remains valid under current macro framework.
- Fiscal and macro-fiscal table highlights (percent of GDP unless otherwise stated):
  - Real GDP growth (percent): 2024 = 5.0; 2025 (SMP Est.) = 4.1; 2025 (SMP Projections) = 4.9; 2026 = 5.5; medium-term series through 2031 shown (e.g., 2027 = 5.5; 2028 = 5.5; 2029 = 5.25; 2030 = 5.25; 2031 = 5.25).
  - Consumer price growth (average, percent): 2024 = 3.2; 2025 = 2.9; 2026 = 2.5; 2027 onward = 2.2–2.0 range.
  - Public debt (central government, percent of GDP): 2024 = 44.0; 2025 = 41.9; 2026 = 40.9; through 2031 declining gradually to 38.7.
  - Overall balance (central government, percent of GDP): 2024 = -2.2; 2025 = -1.6; 2026 = -2.6; 2027 onward around -2.4 to -2.5.
  - Total revenue: 2024 = 18.7; 2025 = 19.3; 2026 = 18.3; medium-term trend 19.9–20.6 then stabilizing.
  - Current account (percent of GDP): 2024 = -4.3; 2025 = -0.9; 2026 = -3.8; 2027 = -1.0; 2028 onward improving.

### Banking sector and financial conditions
- Banking sector status:
  - Banking performance improved in first half of 2025, but credit provision shrunk by 2 percent yoy; private sector credit growth picked up from mid-2025 following improved business climate and sharp easing of financing conditions.
  - Deposit growth maintained a brisk pace of 15 percent in the second half of 2025.
  - Banks’ sovereign claims increased, pointing to an increased sovereign-bank nexus.
- Indicators and risks:
  - Regional financing costs fell in 2025 but remain elevated, raising the debt service burden in years ahead.
  - Watch for sovereign-bank nexus risks as banks increase exposure to public sector claims; need to balance support for public financing with potential crowding out of private sector credit.

### Program implementation under the SMP (end-December 2025 test date)
- Overall assessment: strong performance under the SMP’s second review; policies remain on track despite challenging macroeconomic and security environment in Q4 2025.
- Key quantitative and indicative targets met (end-December outturns):
  - Floor on priority social and development spending (IT): priority social spending estimated at CFAF 757 billion, exceeding the CFAF 671 billion floor (31 percent overperformance relative to first SMP review).
  - Floor on net tax revenues excluding exceptional mining payments (QT): collections estimated at CFAF 2,293 billion, exceeding the CFAF 2,077 billion floor.
  - Ceiling on the net primary deficit (QT): net primary deficit estimated at CFAF 6.4 billion, CFAF 293.6 billion below the CFAF 300 billion deficit ceiling.
  - External arrears (QT): external arrears amounted to CFAF 102.8 billion, slightly below the CFAF 103.5 billion benchmark for assessing performance.
  - Domestic arrears (IT): zero ceiling on net arrears accumulation met; legacy domestic payment arrears reduced from CFAF 282.8 billion to CFAF 158.3 billion by end-December 2025—following repayments in 2025Q4.

### Structural benchmarks, transparency, and RCF oversight
- Structural benchmarks (all five end-December 2025 SBs met):
  - Digitalization of tax payments: target 40 percent share via electronic payments by end-2025 reached 43.3 percent (Dec 2025 figures also cited as 43 percent in other sections).
  - Publication of the quarterly RCF usage report: second quarterly RCF spending report published; provisionally reported expenditures exceed available RCF resources at this stage.
  - Disclosure of public procurement contracts: detailed list related to RCF spending updated on DG Public Procurement portal, including contract holders, beneficial owners, and selection process.
  - Action plan from census of public sector bank accounts: draft updated and implementation begun; plan includes consolidated database and processing requests prior to account closure.
  - Instruction on data exchange between DGTCP, DGD, and DGI: issued by the Ministry at the end of December.
- Audits and timelines:
  - BVG (Auditor General) and authorities confirmed audit timeline of RCF expenditures to be finalized by June 2026.
  - Staff encourage provision of detailed documentation to substantiate consistency of expenditures with the RCF; BVG will ultimately audit all reported expenditures.
- TMU and reporting: program exchange rates based on official rates as of April 16, 2025; detailed reporting schedules and definitions for TOFE, monetary, and balance of payments data specified (multiple frequency and lag requirements).

### Arrears clearance and liquidity
- Legacy domestic payment arrears reduced from CFAF 282.8 billion to CFAF 158.3 billion by end-December 2025—following repayments in 2025Q4.
- Authorities used budgetary resources to clear legacy arrears to suppliers from 2023 and 2024, now fully repaid, aiming to restore liquidity to private and banking sectors.
- Authorities plan to substantially reduce, if not eliminate, the stock of domestic arrears in 2026.
- Quantitative target on non-accumulation of external arrears for end-December 2025 was modified to a non-continuous QT to allow flexibility on timing of arrears repayment.

### Mining revenues, scenarios, and policy guidance
- Commodity context: gold prices reached record highs and lithium recovered from multi-year bottoms so far in 2026.
  - Since the budget was drafted in September 2025, gold and lithium prices have risen by about 25 percent and 55 percent, respectively.
- Staff recommendations on managing mining windfalls:
  - Adopt a medium-term fiscal framework that clearly distinguishes mining and non-mining revenues.
  - Anchor policymaking with a credible fiscal rule to differentiate “normal” revenues from extraordinary mining-related revenues and to smooth spending over time.
  - Possible options tailored to Mali’s context include:
    - Strengthening stabilization or sovereign wealth mechanisms.
    - Building fiscal and reserve buffers.
    - Reducing debt and arrears.
    - Scaling up well-targeted investment and diversification.
    - Supporting social and environmental programs in mining-affected areas.
  - Staff urged a share of any windfall gains to be saved to bolster fiscal buffers against commodity price volatility and security risks.
- Use of mining revenue frameworks: staff encouraged careful prioritization of spending through funds established under the 2023 mining code, which earmark mining revenues for specific development objectives.

### 2026 budget, staff projections, and public spending guidance
- 2026 budget (approved December 2025) aims to balance fiscal support and sustainability; authorities’ budget foresees a 15 percent increase (yoy) in fiscal revenues for 2026.
- Staff vs authorities 2026 fiscal table (CFAF billions — exact text figures cited):
  - Revenue and grants: Staff 3,806 / Authorities 3,696.
  - Total revenue: Staff 3,739 / Authorities 3,619.
  - Tax revenue: Staff 2,827 / Authorities 2,602.
  - Total expenditure and net lending: Staff 4,261 / Authorities 4,119.
  - Overall balance (accrual basis): Staff -455 / Authorities -423 (equivalent to -2.4 percent and -2.3 percent of GDP respectively).
- Staff cautions:
  - Anchor the budget on conservative, updated mining revenue projections and save a share of windfalls to build buffers.
  - Avoid permanent increases in recurrent spending, particularly the wage bill; allow limited, well-targeted spending in priority areas (security, social programs, fuel constraints) if revenues remain on track.
- Nominal expenditures projected to grow at 9 percent (yoy), driven in part by capital expenditures, transfers, and subsidies.
- Budget targets: narrow overall deficit from 2¾ percent of GDP in 2025’s budget law to 2¼ percent in 2026; primary deficit targeted to narrow from 1.5 to 0.9 percent.

### Revenue mobilization and public spending efficiency
- Staff recommendations to broaden tax base and improve efficiency:
  - Advance digitalization.
  - Expand taxpayer base (including fast-growing sectors).
  - Rationalize VAT exemptions and excises.
  - Develop property taxation through a real-estate cadaster.
  - Avoid new taxes on basic food products due to regressive impact.
  - Caution on mobile money taxes given IMF research on inefficiency and adverse effects on financial inclusion.
- Public spending efficiency measures:
  - Program-based budgeting and regular expenditure reviews.
  - Continued use of biometric audits and regular verification to remove ghost workers.
  - Careful monitoring of recent wage bill changes to avoid renewed wage pressures.
  - Reform of loss-making SOEs as highlighted in the 2025 Article IV consultation.
  - Scale up public investment to offset under-execution, with follow-up on PIMA weaknesses and launching a new PEFA assessment (last in 2021).

### Governance, safeguards, and IMF capacity development priorities
- Governance progress:
  - Anti-corruption, judicial, and AML/CFT reforms noted since 2021 Diagnostic; Mali removed from FATF Grey List in June 2025.
  - Further progress needed on asset declarations and SOE oversight; project under preparation to strengthen governance including a law to make the Court of Auditors fully operational and a law to support online asset declarations.
- PFM and transparency priorities:
  - Continued reporting of expenditures consistent with program categories.
  - Cooperation with BVG audit of RCF use (scheduled completion June 2026).
  - Implement action plan following census of public accounts with strong monitoring and steps toward Treasury Single Account.
  - Provide further details on timeline for consolidating tax code in line with WAEMU and OHADA harmonization.
- Safeguards: Most recent BCEAO safeguards assessment completed in August 2023; progress on recommendations has been slow but BCEAO adopted a roadmap and four of eight member States have ratified the revised cooperation agreement with France.
- IMF capacity development support should continue focusing on domestic revenue mobilization, PFM, debt management, macroeconomic statistics and governance; targeted support for customs data management and risk management practices recommended.

### Risk Assessment Matrix — key risks and mitigation (selected)
- Geopolitical Tensions and Intensification of Conflicts
  - Relative Likelihood: High; Expected Impact: High.
  - Mitigations: regional cooperation, diversify partners, preserve fiscal buffers, prioritize social spending.
- Protectionism and Trade Disruptions
  - Relative Likelihood: High; Expected Impact: High.
  - Mitigations: strengthen domestic value chains, advance sectoral reforms, build fiscal buffers, diversify partners.
- Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Higher Interest Rates
  - Relative Likelihood: High; Expected Impact: High.
  - Mitigations: fiscal consolidation, financial sector reform, seek concessional financing, create fiscal buffers.
- Commodity price volatility
  - Relative Likelihood: High; Expected Impact: High.
  - Mitigations: create fiscal space for social spending, raise domestic food supply, update revenue projections in multi-year framework.
- Significant deterioration of security situation (domestic/regional)
  - Relative Likelihood: High; Expected Impact: High.
  - Mitigations: restore collaboration with international/regional security forces and aid organizations.
- Energy crisis and power outages
  - Relative Likelihood: Medium; Expected Impact: High.
  - Mitigations: invest in electricity grid, diversify energy sources, improve EDM management, regional cooperation.
- Cyberthreats and climate change also highlighted with mitigation recommendations (strengthen cybersecurity; build resilience in agriculture).

### Staff appraisal and program intent
- Staff appraisal:
  - Mali rebounding from late-2025 macroeconomic and humanitarian challenges; security tensions eased and gold output recovering.
  - Growth projected at 5.5 percent in 2026, supported by measures to restore fuel supply and security, significant repayment of domestic arrears, and resolution of the mining dispute; notes potential negative spillovers from the recent conflict in the Middle East.
  - Strong performance under the SMP: all quantitative and qualitative targets observed, with overperformance in some instances; all structural benchmarks met.
- Policy priorities and financing request (from Letter of Intent):
  - Maintain prudent macroeconomic policies and sustain reform momentum under the SMP.
  - Focus on sustainability, transparency, and efficiency of fiscal policy; strengthen domestic revenue mobilization; prudent management of gold revenue windfalls.
  - Prevent accumulation of new domestic and external arrears and continue clearance of arrears.
  - Government reiterates interest in pursuing an arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility to meet medium-term financing needs and catalyze concessional support.
  - Government authorizes IMF to publish the Letter of Intent and staff report for the second review of the SMP.

*Source: IMF staff report — "1. Official Resolution of the Gold Mining Dispute" (content unit 1mliea2026001).*

### 1. Official Resolution of the Gold Mining Dispute_____________________________________________7

### 1. Official Resolution of the Gold Mining Dispute

### Context and security dynamics
- The security situation improved since the second half of last year but "remains volatile." A sharp surge in terrorist attacks from mid-2025 disrupted fuel and goods transport, damaged infrastructure and industrial facilities, and weakened economic activity; conditions began improving in late November, particularly in the capital, as authorities’ countermeasures took effect.
- Persistent issues: occasional fuel shortages, electricity outages, internal displacement, and elevated food insecurity.
- Key indicators cited:
  - Internal Displacements (thousands of people): time series shown through 2025 (source: IOM; latest data as of September 2025).
  - Food Insecurity, 2020–2026 (millions of people): IPC phases indicating Phase 3–5 severity.
  - As of end-October 2025, 2,300 schools were not functional, impacting 700,000 students (source: UNICEF and Mali Education Cluster).
  - Fatalities due to violence: ACLED and IMF Staff computations (time series through 2025).

### Resolution of the gold mining dispute (summary and immediate effects)
- The protracted dispute with Mali’s largest gold producer was resolved in late 2025, paving the way for normalization in 2026.
- Box 1 — Main elements of the agreement (based on authorities’ details):
  - On November 24, 2025, the mine operator and government agreed to resolve all outstanding disputes.
  - The agreement: withdrew legal charges against the company and its staff; ended provisional administration of the mine; restored operational control to the operator; led to withdrawal of arbitration claims before ICSID.
  - The mine was brought under the 2023 mining code; the company agreed to participate in the Mining Fund; the license was renewed for 10 years in February 2026.
  - Settlement payment: CFAF 244 billion (1.4 percent of 2025 GDP), including VAT offsets and an earlier advance payment.
  - Production expectations: gold production is expected to recover gradually in 2026 to at least 10 tons, up from less than 3 tons in 2025.
- Staff estimates of macro effects from the agreement (2026):
  - Positive effect on growth: about 0.2 percentage points.
  - Additional fiscal revenues: about 0.6 percentage points of GDP.
  - Positive contribution to the balance of payments: about 4.6 percent of GDP (from export of additional gold produced at the mine).
  - The settlement added CFAF 144 billion to December 2025 revenues (noted in fiscal discussion).

### Recent economic developments and near-term outlook
- Real GDP:
  - Growth in first three quarters of 2025: 5.7 percent, up from 4.3 percent in 2024.
  - Sectoral shifts: rebound in secondary sector from -2.4 to 3.4 percent (supported in part by lithium production); agriculture expanded strongly by 8.3 percent (yoy).
  - Real GDP growth projected: 4.9 percent for 2025 (reflecting weaker Q4 amid heightened insecurity); rebound to around 5.5 percent in 2026, assuming gradual security improvements, higher gold output, a better business climate, and recovery in credit.
  - Medium-term growth expected to stabilize around 5¼ percent, supported by higher public investment.
- Risks:
  - Tilting to the downside: renewed insecurity, persistently high regional financing costs, return of fuel shortages, higher oil prices (linked to conflict in the Middle East), and volatility in gold markets.
  - Potential upside from gold: while resolution may boost output, gold remains vulnerable to insecurity.
- Inflation:
  - Estimated at 2.9 percent in 2025, easing to 2.2 percent in 2026, and stabilizing around 2 percent in the medium term.
  - Drivers: moderated food price pressures after elevated early-2025 readings; second-half 2025 rises in durable goods and services; temporary impact of 2025 tax increases expected to dissipate.
  - Risk: possibility of higher oil prices depending on developments in the Middle East conflict.
- External sector:
  - Current account deficit estimated to have narrowed to 0.9 percent of GDP in 2025 (from 4.3 percent in 2024); projected to remain stable at 1.0 percent of GDP in 2026.
  - 2025 improvement drivers: higher gold prices, one-off payments related to the gold mine settlement agreement, renewal of license of a large telecommunications operator; partly offset by somewhat higher fuel imports and weak gold production.
  - Assumption for oil: a 15 percent increase in the average price of oil for 2026 compared to 2025 is incorporated into projections.
  - Overall balance projections: 2.5 percent of GDP in 2025 and 2.8 percent in 2026.
  - Medium-term outlook: external position expected to strengthen as gold production normalizes and external financing gradually resumes from 2027.
- Public debt and financing:
  - Fiscal deficit: expected to fall to 1.6 percent of GDP in 2025 (from 2.2 percent in 2024) due to mining revenues and new tax measures; 2025 projection revised downward from 2.7 percent at first SMP review to 1.6 percent currently.
  - For 2026: staff expect a fiscal deficit of 2.4 percent of GDP.
  - Government measures in 2025: new mobile money taxes, special mining levies, higher taxes on alcohol and certain foodstuffs; part of proceeds earmarked for dedicated funds supporting basic infrastructure and social development.
  - Medium-term fiscal path: under current policies and assuming elevated gold prices and full mine operations, deficits in 2027–31 expected to hover around 2½ percent of GDP.
  - Regional financing: by end-2025, regional bond issuances totaled CFAF 1,035 billion and syndicated loans CFAF 100 billion (below issuance target of CFAF 1,255 billion); about CFAF 1,285 billion in regional bonds and syndicated loans mature in 2026; government issuance target for 2026: CFAF 1,450 billion.
  - Public debt: expected to fall in 2026 and ease gradually over the medium term.
  - Arrears as of end-2025: domestic arrears CFAF 213 billion (1.2 percent of GDP); external arrears CFAF 102.8 billion (0.7 percent of GDP). External arrears increased slightly since end-2024, including an increase of over CFAF 6 billion since September 30. Domestic arrears declined substantially for the first time since 2022.
  - Debt sustainability: 2025 Article IV DSA assessed Mali at moderate risk of external and public debt distress; assessment remains valid under current macro framework.
- Fiscal and macro-fiscal indicators (table highlights, percent of GDP unless otherwise stated):
  - Real GDP growth (percent): 2024 = 5.0; 2025 (SMP Est.) = 4.1; 2025 (SMP Projections) = 4.9; 2026 = 5.5; medium-term series through 2031 shown (e.g., 2027 = 5.5; 2028 = 5.5; 2029 = 5.25; 2030 = 5.25; 2031 = 5.25).
  - Consumer price growth (average, percent): 2024 = 3.2; 2025 = 2.9; 2026 = 2.5; 2027 onward = 2.2–2.0 range.
  - Public debt (central government, percent of GDP): 2024 = 44.0; 2025 = 41.9; 2026 = 40.9; through 2031 declining gradually to 38.7.
  - Overall balance (central government, percent of GDP): 2024 = -2.2; 2025 = -1.6; 2026 = -2.6; 2027 onward around -2.4 to -2.5.
  - Total revenue: 2024 = 18.7; 2025 = 19.3; 2026 = 18.3; medium-term trend 19.9–20.6 then stabilizing.
  - Current account (percent of GDP): 2024 = -4.3; 2025 = -0.9; 2026 = -3.8; 2027 = -1.0; 2028 onward improving.

### Banking sector and financial conditions
- Banking sector: appears stable; private sector credit growth resumed in the second half of 2025.
  - Banking performance improved in first half of 2025, but credit provision shrunk by 2 percent yoy; private sector credit growth picked up from mid-2025 following improved business climate and sharp easing of financing conditions.
  - Deposit growth maintained a brisk pace of 15 percent in the second half of 2025.
  - Banks’ sovereign claims increased, pointing to an increased sovereign-bank nexus.
- Indicators and risks:
  - Yields on domestic debt issuances: time series for Mali and WAEMU shown; regional financing costs fell in 2025 but remain elevated, raising the debt service burden in years ahead.
  - Banks’ exposure to public sector (percent of total assets) and claims on public sector / claims on private sector (percent) show increased sovereign-bank linkages.
  - Interest to revenue including grants ratio plotted for 2023–31 (projections and DSA shading indicated).

### Program implementation under the SMP (as of end-December 2025 test date)
- Program performance: strong under the SMP’s second review; policies remain on track despite challenging macroeconomic and security environment in Q4 2025.
- Key quantitative and indicative targets met:
  - Floor on priority social and development spending (IT): at end-December, priority social spending estimated at CFAF 757 billion, exceeding the CFAF 671 billion floor (31 percent overperformance relative to first SMP review).
  - Floor on net tax revenues excluding exceptional mining payments (QT): by end-December, collections estimated at CFAF 2,293 billion, exceeding the CFAF 2,077 billion floor.
  - Ceiling on the net primary deficit (QT): by end-December, the net primary deficit estimated at CFAF 6.4 billion, CFAF 293.6 billion below the CFAF 300 billion deficit ceiling.
  - External arrears (QT): external arrears amounted to CFAF 102.8 billion, slightly below the CFAF 103.5 billion benchmark for assessing performance. Authorities noted timing of repayments concentrated in the last quarter contributed to the increase in external arrears by CFAF 6.7 billion between September and December.
  - Domestic arrears (IT): the zero ceiling on net arrears accumulation was met, with a significant reduction in arrears to private suppliers from the end-December 2024 benchmark.

### Policy priorities and implications
- Fiscal policy:
  - Authorities are undertaking wage bill reforms, including revisions to the civil service framework, enhanced retirement/severance allowances, and adjustments to the salary scale; fiscal impact intended to be gradual and contained.
  - Part of 2025 revenue measures is earmarked for basic infrastructure and social development funds.
  - The added fiscal space from mining revenues would enable the government to resume capital spending and advance medium-term development goals under Vision 2063 (2025 Article IV report).
- External financing and debt management:
  - High maturing regional bonds and syndicated loans in 2026 require stepped-up issuance and debt-management planning (2026 issuance target CFAF 1,450 billion).
  - Continued monitoring of arrears reduction and commitment to clearing domestic arrears; authorities formulated a plan foreseeing the first reduction in net terms by 2026.
- Financial sector:
  - Watch for sovereign-bank nexus risks as banks increase exposure to public sector claims; need to balance support for public financing with the potential crowding out of private sector credit.
- Risk management:
  - Key macro risks include renewed insecurity, higher oil prices tied to Middle East conflict spillovers, weaker-than-expected gold production or prices, and volatility in global markets affecting gold and fuel.

*Source: IMF staff report — "1. Official Resolution of the Gold Mining Dispute" (extracted from the provided PDF content).*

### 282.8 billion to CFAF 158.3 billion by end-December 2025—following repayments in2025Q4.

### 1mliea2026001 - 282.8 billion to CFAF 158.3 billion by end-December 2025—following repayments in2025Q4.

### Arrears clearance and liquidity
- Stock of legacy domestic payment arrears reduced from CFAF 282.8 billion to CFAF 158.3 billion by end-December 2025—following repayments in 2025Q4.
- Authorities used budgetary resources to clear legacy arrears to suppliers from 2023 and 2024, which have now been fully repaid, aiming to restore liquidity to the private and banking sectors.
- Authorities plan to substantially reduce, if not eliminate, the stock of domestic arrears in 2026.
- Quantitative target for non-accumulation of external arrears for end-December 2025 was modified to a non-continuous QT to allow flexibility on timing of arrears repayment.

### Structural benchmarks and RCF transparency
- All five end-December 2025 structural benchmarks were met:
  - Digitalization of tax payments: target of 40 percent share of receipts via electronic payments by end-2025 reached 43.3 percent.
  - Publication of the quarterly RCF usage report: second quarterly RCF spending report published, indicating additional funds corresponding to RCF disbursements have been utilized; provisionally reported expenditures exceed available RCF resources at this stage.
  - Disclosure of public procurement contracts: detailed list of public procurement contracts related to RCF spending updated on the portal of the DG Public Procurement (DGMP-DSP), including contract holders, beneficial owners, and the selection process.
  - Action plan from census of public sector bank accounts: earlier draft updated and implementation begun; plan includes a consolidated database covering all bank accounts and processing requests for additional information from public entities prior to account closure.
  - Instruction on data exchange between DGTCP, DGD, and DGI: issued by the Ministry at the end of December.
- BVG (Auditor General) and authorities confirmed audit timeline of RCF expenditures to be finalized by June 2026.
- Staff encourage authorities to provide detailed documentation to substantiate consistency of expenditures with the RCF; BVG will ultimately audit all reported expenditures.

### Mining revenues, scenarios, and policy guidance
- Recent commodity context:
  - Gold prices reached record highs and lithium recovered from multi-year bottoms so far in 2026.
  - Since the budget was drafted in September 2025, gold and lithium prices have risen by about 25 percent and 55 percent, respectively (text note).
- Staff emphasized prudent management of upside from mining revenues given commodity volatility and uncertainties in production and sector costs.
- Staff recommended adopting a medium-term fiscal framework that:
  - Clearly distinguishes between mining and non-mining revenues.
  - Anchors policymaking with a credible fiscal rule to differentiate “normal” revenues from extraordinary mining-related revenues and to smooth spending over time.
- Possible options tailored to Mali’s context include:
  - Strengthening stabilization or sovereign wealth mechanisms.
  - Building fiscal and reserve buffers.
  - Reducing debt and arrears.
  - Scaling up well-targeted investment and diversification.
  - Supporting social and environmental programs in mining-affected areas.
- Staff encouraged careful prioritization of spending through funds established under the 2023 mining code, which earmark mining revenues for specific development objectives.
- In policy discussion, staff urged a share of any windfall gains to be saved to bolster fiscal buffers against commodity price volatility and security risks.

### Fiscal outlook, 2026 budget and staff projections
- 2026 budget (approved in December 2025) aims to balance fiscal support and sustainability.
- Authorities’ budget foresees a 15 percent increase (yoy) in fiscal revenues for 2026.
- Staff’s projections differ from authorities’ forecast due to:
  - Higher tax revenues from higher mining receipts amid record gold prices and higher production forecasts.
  - Higher current expenditures, mostly goods and services, subsidies and interest payments.
- Staff expect mining revenues to exceed budget projections due to higher gold and lithium prices.
- Nominal expenditures projected to grow at 9 percent (yoy), driven in part by capital expenditures, transfers, and subsidies.
- Budget targets:
  - Narrowing overall deficit from 2¾ percent of GDP in 2025’s budget law to 2¼ percent in 2026.
  - Primary deficit targeted to narrow from 1.5 to 0.9 percent.
- Staff cautions budget should be anchored on conservative, updated mining revenue projections and recommend saving a share of windfalls to build buffers.
- Staff reiterated need to avoid permanent increases in recurrent spending, particularly the wage bill, and to allow limited, well-targeted spending in priority areas (security, social programs, fuel constraints) if revenues remain on track.

### Revenue mobilization and public spending efficiency
- Staff reiterated advice to broaden the tax base in line with past TADAT recommendations; non-mining revenues projected to remain well below WAEMU’s 20 percent-of-GDP target by 2031.
- Recommended revenue mobilization priorities:
  - Advance digitalization.
  - Expand taxpayer base (including fast-growing sectors).
  - Rationalize VAT exemptions and excises.
  - Develop property taxation through a real-estate cadaster.
  - Avoid new taxes on basic food products due to regressive impact.
  - Caution on mobile money taxes given IMF research on their inefficiency and adverse effects on financial inclusion.
- Public spending efficiency measures encouraged:
  - Program-based budgeting and regular expenditure reviews.
  - Continued use of biometric audits and regular verification to remove ghost workers.
  - Careful monitoring of recent wage bill changes to avoid renewed wage pressures.
  - Reform of loss-making SOEs as highlighted in the 2025 Article IV consultation.
  - Scale up public investment to offset under-execution, with follow-up on PIMA weaknesses and launching a new PEFA assessment (last in 2021).

### Governance, PFM, safeguards and IMF capacity development
- Governance progress noted since 2021 Diagnostic: anti-corruption, judicial, and AML/CFT reforms; Mali removed from FATF Grey List in June 2025.
- Further progress needed on asset declarations and SOE oversight; project under preparation to strengthen governance including a law to make the Court of Auditors fully operational and a law to support online asset declarations.
- Staff commended transparency improvements under the SMP and urged:
  - Continued reporting of expenditures consistent with program categories.
  - Cooperation with BVG audit of RCF use (scheduled completion June 2026).
  - Implementation of action plan following census of public accounts with strong monitoring and steps toward Treasury Single Account.
  - Further details on timeline for consolidating tax code in line with WAEMU and OHADA harmonization.
- Safeguards: Most recent BCEAO safeguards assessment completed in August 2023; progress on recommendations has been slow but BCEAO adopted a roadmap and four of eight member States have ratified the revised cooperation agreement with France.
- IMF capacity development support should continue focusing on domestic revenue mobilization, PFM, debt management, macroeconomic statistics and governance; targeted support for customs data management and risk management practices recommended.

### Staff appraisal, macro projections and risks
- Staff appraisal highlights:
  - Mali rebounding from late-2025 macroeconomic and humanitarian challenges; security tensions eased and gold output recovering.
  - Growth projected at 5.5 percent in 2026, supported by measures to restore fuel supply and security, significant repayment of domestic arrears, and resolution of the mining dispute; notes potential negative spillovers from the recent conflict in the Middle East.
  - Strong performance under the SMP: all quantitative and qualitative targets observed, with overperformance in some instances; all structural benchmarks met.
- Key macro projections and indicators cited exactly in the text:
  - Growth projected at 5.5 percent for 2026.
  - 2026 budget projections (staff vs authorities) include:
    - Revenue and grants: Staff 3,806 (CFAF billions) / Authorities 3,696 (CFAF billions).
    - Total revenue: Staff 3,739 / Authorities 3,619 (CFAF billions).
    - Tax revenue: Staff 2,827 / Authorities 2,602 (CFAF billions).
    - Total expenditure and net lending: Staff 4,261 / Authorities 4,119 (CFAF billions).
    - Overall balance (accrual basis): Staff -455 (CFAF billions) / Authorities -423 (CFAF billions), equivalent to -2.4 percent and -2.3 percent of GDP respectively (table context).
  - Fiscal stance: government commitment to maintain fiscal deficit below 3 percent of GDP while preserving priority social spending.
- Risks and priorities:
  - Manage rollover risks from higher volume of debt maturing from 2026 onward and rising interest payments by careful management of maturity profile of new borrowing.
  - Continue negotiations with external creditors to establish modalities for gradual settlement of outstanding arrears.
  - Use available fiscal space to substantially reduce legacy domestic payment arrears to restore liquidity to private sector and banking system.
  - Sustain reform momentum under the SMP and build toward a potential future UCT-quality arrangement.

*Source: 1mliea2026001.*

### 1. The committee overseeing the

### 1. The committee overseeing the

### Fiscal measures, structural benchmarks, and implementation status
- Target: increase the share of receipts via electronic payment to 40 percent by end-2025, compared with 30 percent in 2024.
- Status (Dec 2025): Met. Digital receipts reached 43 percent of total payments end-December 2025.
- Prepare and publish quarterly reports on usage of RCF disbursements in line with the authorities’ commitment that spending should be consistent with the plans set out in the LOI within two months after reporting period.
  - Objective: Enhance good governance and transparency.
  - Deadline: Dec 2025.
  - Status: Met. First and second report published on MEF website.
  - Note: The quarterly reports on Q2, Q3 and Q4 2025 usage of RCF disbursements will need to be published respectively by end-August 2025, end November-2025 and end February 2026.
- Publish procurement contracts, supplier selection processes and beneficial ownership for contracts to RCF spending (within two months of contracts being awarded).
  - Objective: Promote good fiscal governance.
  - Deadline: Dec 2025.
  - Status: Met. Specific report is available and updated in addition to the general publication of procurement procedures.
  - Note: The structural benchmark (SB) on publishing procurement contracts within two months of contracts being awarded is a continuous SB, meaning that it must be consistently implemented and monitored throughout the entire program.
- Share the Treasury’s action plan to implement the recommendations from the new census of public sector bank accounts with staff, including a focus on dormant and inactive accounts.
  - Objective: Promote good fiscal governance and enhance fiscal transparency.
  - Deadline: Dec 2025.
  - Status: Met. Action plan has been drafted and shared with IMF staff.
- Sign a directive (“instruction”) by the Minister of Economy and Finance to start the exchange of data between the General Directorate of the Treasury and Public Accounting (DGTCP), the General Directorate of Customs (DGD) and the General Directorate of Taxes (DGI), relating to liquidations, issuance and collection of tax liabilities.
  - Objective: Promote good fiscal governance and performance management.
  - Deadline: Dec 2025.
  - Status: Met. The instruction was communicated to all parties and has been shared with IMF staff.

### Timeline of key political developments (2025Q4 onward)
- 2025
  - December 23: The 2-day summit of the AES heads of state in Bamako discussed the strengthening of regional security cooperation, including the creation of a unified force of the AES to pool efforts in the fight against insecurity. During the summit, Télévision AES was inaugurated as an institutional communication channel to support the regional integration of the three AES states, and the Banque Confédérale d’Investissement et de Développement (BCID) was inaugurated as a new strategic instrument to finance growth and regional development projects, with a starting capital of CFAF 500 billion.
- 2026
  - 6 January: A final audit by the Supreme Court's Accounts Section was released, analyzing the public funding of Malian political parties over the period 2000–2024. The document details the legal regulations, the amounts disbursed, the concentration of resources, and the limitations encountered in controlling public funds.
  - 12 January: The President of the Transition, General Assimi Goïta, announced the launch of consultations on the draft bill that will determine the conditions for the formation and operation of political parties, as stipulated in Article 39 of the Constitution.
  - 28 January: The Court of Justice of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) issued a ruling on January 28, 2026, invalidating the sanctions imposed on Mali in early 2022—including border closures and the suspension of financial transactions—after the Malian transitional authorities proposed an extended electoral calendar. The Court determined that the restrictive measures adopted by the Conference of Heads of State and Government did not comply with the established procedures of community law.

### Risk Assessment Matrix — Global Risks / Conjunctural Shocks
- Geopolitical Tensions and Intensification of Conflicts
  - Relative Likelihood: High
  - Expected Impact if Realized / Time Horizon: High — Rising geopolitical tensions raise the risk of conflict escalation, disrupting infrastructure, and trade routes. If realized, weaker trade and investment would strain Mali’s external and fiscal positions, slow growth, and fuel inflation through higher food and energy prices, exacerbating social tensions and financing pressures.
  - Policies to Mitigate Risks:
    - Reaffirm commitment to multilateralism and regional cooperation.
    - Diversify trade and investment partners to reduce exposure to external shocks.
    - Advance sectoral reforms to stimulate investment and resilience.
    - Preserve fiscal buffers and prioritize social spending
    - Enhance macroeconomic stability and investor confidence
- Protectionism and Trade Disruptions
  - Relative Likelihood: High
  - Expected Impact if Realized / Time Horizon: High — Trade disruptions could weigh on Mali’s exports (gold, cotton, and lithium), reduce FDI, and slow growth over the short to medium term. Higher import costs could increase inflationary pressures and widen the current account deficit. Fiscal revenues could also decline if external demand weakens.
  - Policies to Mitigate Risks:
    - Strengthen domestic value chains to mitigate supply disruptions.
    - Advance sectoral reforms to enhance competitiveness and investment.
    - Build fiscal buffers to absorb external shocks and protect priority spending.
    - Diversify trade and investment partners to reduce exposure to protectionist shocks.
    - Strengthen regional trade integration with key partners
- Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Higher Interest Rates
  - Relative Likelihood: High
  - Expected Impact if Realized / Time Horizon: High — Lower public investments and social spendings, higher unemployment, lower production, fiscal balance deterioration.
  - Policies to Mitigate Risks:
    - Implement fiscal consolidation to create space and strengthen debt sustainability.
    - Reform the financial sector to enhance resilience and reduce sovereign–financial linkages.
    - Seek concessional and emergency financing to ease fiscal pressures and smooth adjustment.
    - Create fiscal buffers to absorb risk premia shocks
- Commodity price volatility
  - Relative Likelihood: High
  - Expected Impact if Realized / Time Horizon: High — The effect will depend on the size and direction of changes in commodity prices. Higher food and energy prices could cause social and economic tensions by raising Mali’s food and energy imports bill. Lower gold prices could negatively affect exports and fiscal revenues.
  - Policies to Mitigate Risks:
    - Create fiscal space to scale up social spending
    - Raise domestic food supply and request aid from international partners for food/energy needs
    - Enhance resilience against commodity price shocks by updating revenue projections in multi-year fiscal framework
- Social Discontent
  - Relative Likelihood: Medium
  - Expected Impact if Realized / Time Horizon: High — Social discontent may rise if the cost of living escalates further, in an environment of large food insecurity and heightened violence. The postponement of the presidential election, combined with broader political developments, may contribute to increased uncertainty, weigh on confidence, and delay the resumption of IFI budget support and broader engagement.
  - Policies to Mitigate Risks:
    - Address food insecurity and the cost-of-living crisis
    - Restore national unity to stem regional conflict
    - Collaborate with international and regional security partners
    - Agree on election timetable to see resumption of IFI budget support
    - Maintain constructive dialogue around the transition process and continue communicating reform priorities
- New Trade Agreements
  - Relative Likelihood: Low
  - Expected Impact if Realized / Time Horizon: High — Tangible progress in trade talks reduces uncertainty and trade barriers. Wider cooperation on services, FDI, and taxation boosts investment and bolsters public finances. Reduced uncertainty and improved global trade prospects strengthened investment and trade flows, but could also lower commodity prices (e.g., gold, lithium), reducing export revenues and fiscal space over the medium term.
  - Policies to Mitigate Risks:
    - Promote export diversification to reduce reliance on a few commodities.
    - Strengthen fiscal frameworks to manage revenue volatility.
    - Enhance investment in infrastructure and human capital to boost competitiveness and integration.

### Risk Assessment Matrix — Global Structural Risks
- Cyberthreats
  - Relative Likelihood: High
  - Expected Impact if Realized / Time Horizon: High — Cyberattacks could disrupt financial transactions, weaken public institutions, and reduce trust in digital infrastructure, affecting investment and economic stability.
  - Policies to Mitigate Risks:
    - Strengthen cybersecurity frameworks.
    - Improve digital resilience and risk monitoring.
    - Enhance public-private cooperation in cyber defense.
- Climate change
  - Relative Likelihood: Medium
  - Expected Impact if Realized / Time Horizon: Medium — Extreme drought or rainfall could adversely affect food production and livelihoods, particularly given that a large share of Mali’s agriculture is for self-sustenance.
  - Policies to Mitigate Risks:
    - Build resilience to climate change in agriculture
    - Longer term, broaden the economic base and expand non-agricultural activities
    - Enhance post-disaster response
- Labor Supply Gaps
  - Relative Likelihood: Medium
  - Expected Impact if Realized / Time Horizon: Low — Direct exposure to labor-supply shortages in advanced economies is limited, but tighter migration restrictions could reduce remittance inflows and constrain household incomes and external balances over the medium term.
  - Policies to Mitigate Risks:
    - Expand workforce participation and upskilling programs to support productivity and job creation
    - Promote private-sector development to broaden employment opportunities
    - Strengthen social-protection mechanisms to cushion households from potential remittance losses

### Risk Assessment Matrix — Domestic / Regional Risks
- Significant deterioration of security situation
  - Relative Likelihood: High
  - Expected Impact if Realized / Time Horizon: High — An increase in terrorist attacks across the country and a rise in the internally displaced population. A deterioration in the security situation could lead to political instability and social unrest, which in turn could result in higher military spending, crowding out other developmental priorities. Internal refugee flows would put emergency aid procedures under strain.
  - Policies to Mitigate Risks:
    - Restore collaboration with international and regional security forces and aid organizations.
- Energy crisis and power outages
  - Relative Likelihood: Medium
  - Expected Impact if Realized / Time Horizon: High — Persistent power outages and fuel shortages disrupt economic activities, hinder public services, and exacerbate social discontent. Businesses face operational challenges, leading to economic losses, while households endure reduced quality of life. The energy crisis also undermines investor confidence, potentially affecting future investments in the country.
  - Policies to Mitigate Risks:
    - Enhance energy infrastructure: invest in upgrading and expanding the electricity grid to improve reliability and meet growing demand.
    - Diversify energy sources: develop renewable energy projects, such as solar and hydroelectric power, to reduce dependence on imported fuels and increase energy security.
    - Improve EDM management: implement reforms to enhance the efficiency and financial stability of EDM, including addressing pricing discrepancies and reducing operational losses.
    - Regional cooperation: explore energy import agreements with neighboring countries to alleviate shortages.
- Regional financial sector spillovers
  - Relative Likelihood: Medium
  - Expected Impact if Realized / Time Horizon: Medium — Public debt pressures in Senegal and Niger could affect the regional debt market and exposed domestic banks. Reduced liquidity in public debt markets, tightening of financing conditions, and an increase in debt service. Profitability, liquidity, and solvency issues for fragile banks.
  - Policies to Mitigate Risks:
    - Strengthen banks’ capital and liquidity buffers to enhance resilience.
    - Maintain a proactive monetary policy stance to safeguard macro-financial stability.

*International Monetary Fund — Mali (content unit 1. The committee overseeing the)*

### Appendix I. Letter of Intent

### Appendix I. Letter of Intent

### Recent economic developments and outlook
- Real GDP growth: 6.8 percent y-o-y in Q3 2025; revised growth rates of 2.9 percent in Q1 2025 and 6.4 percent in Q2 2025.
- Growth drivers: recovery of domestic demand, strong household consumption, expansion of public investment; positive ripple effects on primary and tertiary sectors.
- Constraints: energy supply disruptions, security challenges, lower-than-expected gold production.
- Outlook: economic activity projected to rebound in 2026, helped by an increase in mining sector production and improvement in the security situation.
- Inflation: reached 2.3 percent in 2025.

### Program performance and implementation under the SMP
- SMP approvals and support:
  - Staff Monitored Program (SMP) approved on March 30, 2025.
  - Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) (50 percent of quota) approved on April 16, 2025.
  - RCF and SMP provided timely support for urgent balance-of-payments needs from the 2024 severe flooding, accelerated structural reforms, and helped stabilize the macroeconomic situation.
- Targets and outcomes (end-December 2025):
  - All five structural benchmarks for December 2025 achieved.
  - Quantitative and indicative targets for end-December 2025 met; most targets overperformed.
  - Net primary fiscal deficit: outturn CFAF 6.4 billion versus ceiling CFAF 300 billion.
  - Net tax revenue excluding exceptional mining payments: CFAF 2,292.9 billion versus floor CFAF 2,077 billion.
  - External arrears: CFAF 102.8 billion versus target CFAF 103.5 billion.
  - Priority social spending: estimated CFAF 757 billion versus floor CFAF 671 billion.
  - Domestic arrears: reduced from CFAF 282.8 billion at end-December 2024 to CFAF 158.3 billion by end-December 2025; indicative target on net accumulation of domestic payments arrears met.
  - Quantitative target on net accumulation of government external payment arrears and the indicative target on social and priority spending met.
- Structural benchmark achievements and transparency measures:
  - Digitalization: target of 40 percent share of receipts via electronic payments by end-2025 met and exceeded (electronic payments reached 43 percent in 2025).
  - Publication: second quarterly RCF spending report published (RAPPORT_FCR_AU_31102025.pdf); comprehensive list of public procurement contracts related to RCF spending posted on DG Public Procurement portal, detailing contract holders and selection process.
  - Institutional data exchange: instruction formalizing exchange of data on liquidations, issuance and collection of tax liabilities among DGTCP, DGD and DGI issued end-December 2025.
  - Action plan adopted following census of all public banking accounts.

### Fiscal performance and projections
- 2025 fiscal outcome:
  - Primary fiscal balance: deficit CFAF 6.4 billion (well below ceiling CFAF 300 billion).
  - Strong revenue mobilization and enhanced control of current spending noted.
- 2026 fiscal framework and projection:
  - Fiscal deficit projected to decline to CFAF 423 billion, around 2¼ percent of GDP in 2026.
  - Fiscal policy priorities: domestic revenue mobilization, containment of current spending, strengthening defense and security, supporting social sectors, economic recovery via infrastructure investment.
- Key fiscal adjustment measures for 2026:
  - Strong mobilization of revenues:
    - Expected revenue increases from application of the new Mining Code, particularly Ad Valorem Tax, Contribution on the Provision of Services, and the Special Tax on Certain Products bearing gold.
  - Better control of current spending:
    - Wage bill projected at CFAF 1,134 billion in 2026, an increase of 7.4 percent (drivers: adjustment of index point value, regularization of new recruits within defense and security, statutory promotions).
    - Transfers and subsidies projected at CFAF 452 billion, an increase of 14.9 percent due to higher subsidies to the electricity company.
    - Spending on goods and services expected to fall by 3 percent in 2026.
  - Increasing capital spending:
    - Capital investment projected to reach CFAF 853 billion, about 16 percent increase, mainly due to resources from the fund for basic infrastructure projects and social development.

### Revenue mobilization and mining sector oversight
- Revenue strategy:
  - Continue broadening tax base, improve compliance, enhance efficiency and fairness of tax system.
  - Measures: reinforce risk-based audits, improve taxpayer segmentation, strengthen coordination between tax, customs and treasury departments.
  - Digitalization: expand electronic payments (43 percent in 2025) and extend digital collection to include small taxpayers.
- Mining sector measures:
  - Strengthen oversight and monitoring to ensure full compliance with the new mining and tax codes.
  - Ensure accurate reconciliation of production, export and revenue data to capture royalties, taxes and non-tax obligations.
  - Strengthen audit capacity and coordination between revenue authorities and sectoral ministries.

### Public financial management (PFM), arrears, and governance
- PFM improvements:
  - Enhance expenditure programming to ensure efficient budget execution, protect priority spending, and prevent accumulation of domestic payment arrears.
  - Strengthen coordination between expenditure commitments, government procurement plans, and cash flow management.
  - Reinforce public investment management for better appraisal, monitoring and execution; improve procurement and audit processes.
- Arrears strategy:
  - Committed to preventing new domestic and external arrears and progressively reducing existing stocks.
  - Actions: medium-term plan to reduce domestic and external arrears; constructive discussions with several external creditors to seek rescheduling of accumulated arrears.
- Governance and anti-corruption:
  - June 2025: removed from FATF list of jurisdictions under increased monitoring (“grey list”), reflecting substantial progress in anti-money laundering, counter-terrorist financing, and proliferation frameworks.
  - Establishment of a National economic and financial center to fight corruption.
  - Ongoing reforms: adoption of a national strategy against corruption; larger role for the Court des Comptes in the new constitution.
- Transparency and RCF accountability:
  - Escrow account created at the BCEAO for RCF resources.
  - Commitment to continue publishing quarterly reports on RCF use and all contracts awarded under the RCF.
  - An independent audit by the Auditor General (BVG) on use of RCF funds will be conducted and published upon completion of use of all RCF funds.
- Public banking accounts:
  - Treasury completed census of public bank accounts; action plan developed to implement measures addressing dormant and inactive accounts.
  - Commitment to implement measures in the action plan to strengthen management of public banking accounts and treasury.

### Policy intent and financing request
- The Government reiterates commitment to maintain prudent macroeconomic policies and sustain reform momentum established under the SMP, with focus on:
  - Sustainability, transparency, and efficiency of fiscal policy.
  - Strengthening domestic revenue mobilization and prudent management of gold revenue windfalls.
  - Improving quality and efficiency of public spending while safeguarding priority social expenditures and public investment.
  - Preventing accumulation of new domestic and external arrears and continuing clearance of arrears.
  - Advancing governance and transparency reforms (budget reporting, public procurement controls, oversight and reporting of public entities including state-owned enterprises, implementation of anti-corruption legal framework).
- Request: Given satisfactory SMP progress, the Government reiterates interest in pursuing an arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility to meet medium-term financing needs and catalyze concessional support.
- Transparency: the Government authorizes the IMF to publish this letter and the staff report for the second review of the SMP.

*Source: Letter of Intent and attached Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, Bamako, March 13, 2026.*

### 1. The committee overseeing the

### 1. The committee overseeing the

### Digitalization of tax payments
- Target: increase the share of receipts via electronic payment to 40 percent by end-2025, compared with 30 percent in 2024.
- Status: Dec 2025 — Met. Digital receipts reached 43 percent of total payments end-December 2025.

### Reporting and use of RCF disbursements
- Benchmark: Prepare and publish quarterly reports on usage of RCF disbursements in line with the authorities’ commitment that spending should be consistent with the plans set out in the LOI within two months after reporting period.
- Purpose: Enhance good governance and transparency.
- Deadline: Dec 2025.
- Status: Met. First and second report published on MEF website.
- Note on publication schedule: The quarterly reports on Q2, Q3 and Q4 2025 usage of RCF disbursements will need to be published respectively by end-August 2025, end November-2025 and end February 2026.

### Procurement transparency
- Benchmark: Publish procurement contracts, supplier selection processes and beneficial ownership for contracts to RCF spending (within two months of contracts being awarded).
- Purpose: Promote good fiscal governance.
- Deadline: Dec 2025.
- Status: Met. Specific report is available and updated in addition to the general publication of procurement procedures.
- Structural benchmark note: The structural benchmark (SB) on publishing procurement contracts within two months of contracts being awarded is a continuous SB, meaning that it must be consistently implemented and monitored throughout the entire program.

### Treasury action on public sector bank accounts
- Action: Share the Treasury’s action plan to implement the recommendations from the new census of public sector bank accounts with staff, including a focus on dormant and inactive accounts.
- Purpose: Promote good fiscal governance and enhance fiscal transparency.
- Deadline: Dec 2025.
- Status: Met. Action plan has been drafted and shared with IMF staff.

### Instruction to start data exchange across tax, customs, and treasury
- Action: Sign a directive (“instruction”) by the Minister of Economy and Finance to start the exchange of data between the General Directorate of the Treasury and Public Accounting (DGTCP), the General Directorate of Customs (DGD) and the General Directorate of Taxes (DGI), relating to liquidations, issuance and collection of tax liabilities.
- Purpose: Promote good fiscal governance and performance management.
- Deadline: Dec 2025.
- Status: Met. The instruction was communicated to all parties and has been shared with IMF staff.

### Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU): scope and reporting
- Purpose: Defines concepts, definitions, and reporting procedures referred to in the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) for the period covered by the SMP arrangement; presents reporting procedures, definitions and calculation methods, indicative and quantitative targets, structural benchmarks and other commitments under the MEFP.
- Program exchange rates: will be determined based on the official rates used by the IMF as of April 16, 2025.
- Data reporting: Data on all variables subject to quantitative targets will be reported periodically to the IMF as outlined in the SMP timetable set out in the MEFP; any updates outside the specified schedule indicated in Table 1 should be reported promptly (within one week).
- Consultation: Authorities will consult IMF staff if any new information or data emerge, not specifically defined in this TMU, but relevant for monitoring or measuring performance against the program objectives.

### Definitions and debt treatment
- Government definition: central administration of the Republic of Mali; excludes local authorities, the central bank, or any public entity with autonomous legal status not included in the TOFE.
- Debt definition: As set out in IMF Executive Board Decision No. 15688-(14/107), Point 8 — all current, i.e., not contingent, liabilities created under a contractual arrangement requiring payment(s) in the form of assets or services according to a repayment schedule; includes loans, suppliers' credits, and leases (debt for leases equals the present value at inception of all lease payments expected).
- Arrears, penalties, and judicially awarded damages arising from failure to make payment under a contractual obligation that constitutes debt are debt.
- External debt definition: debt denominated, or requiring payment, in a currency other than the CFA franc (with the exception of the West African Development Bank (BOAD), which is considered external debt). This definition also applies to debt contracted among WAEMU member countries.

### Quantitative targets (end-December 2025 unless otherwise indicated)
- General: Targets serve as quantitative targets at end-December 2025 (MEFP Table 1) and are key components of the SMP, April 2025–March 2026.
- A. Ceiling on Net Primary Fiscal Deficit
  - Definition: Net primary fiscal balance (commitment basis) = difference between total budgetary revenue and total expenditure and net lending, as recorded in the TOFE, excluding interest payments.
  - Verification: at the September 2025 and December 2025 test dates.
- B. Floor on Net Tax Revenue, Excluding Mining-Related Exceptional Payments
  - Definition: Government net tax revenue = total tax revenue of the national budget as reported in the TOFE, after deduction of tax refunds generated during the year, in particular VAT credits; mining-related exceptional payments are also deducted.
- C. Ceiling on the Net Accumulation of Government Arrears on External Debt Obligations
  - Definition: External arrears = external debt obligations of the government that have not been paid when due in accordance with contractual terms (taking into account any contractual grace periods).
  - Program commitment: government agrees not to accumulate external payment arrears on its debt, except for arrears arising from external payment obligations being renegotiated with creditors, including bilateral non-Paris Club creditors.
  - Quantitative target: level of external arrears must not exceed the level recorded as of February 28, 2025.
  - Verification: at the December 2025 test date.

### Indicative targets (end-September 2025 unless otherwise indicated)
- D. Floor on Net Tax Revenue, Excluding Mining-Related Exceptional Payments
  - Definition: same as quantitative target B.
- E. Floor on Priority Social and Development Spending
  - Definition: Priority social spending for 2025 and beyond = sum of spending on basic education, secondary and tertiary education, scientific research, roads, and health and social development, excluding transfers to the Malian Social Security Fund (CMSS). Also excluded are capital expenditures associated with projects financed by foreign technical and financial partners.
  - Additions: In response to the catastrophic floods in 2024, priority social spending now includes investments in reconstruction and climate resilience, particularly WASH facilities and food security programs.
  - Application: indicative targets applied following the test dates at end-September 2025 and end-December 2025.
- F. Ceiling on the Government's Net Accumulation of Domestic Payment Arrears
  - Definition: Domestic government payment arrears arise when the date of payment is more than 90 days after the date of settlement of an undisputed debt to a third party (except where terms stipulate a longer period); for domestic bank or financial market debt service, arrears arise 30 days after the due date.
  - Commitment: government undertakes not to accumulate domestic payment arrears. "Domestic" defined as the residence of the creditor.
  - Application: indicative targets applied following the test dates of end-September 2025 and end-December 2025.

### Structural benchmarks and program monitoring
- Communication: Information concerning the implementation of measures constituting structural benchmarks will be communicated to IMF staff at the time of implementation.
- Additional monitoring: To facilitate program monitoring, a summary table will provide IMF staff (in Excel format for all quantitative data).

### Reporting requirements (summary of key frequencies and reporting lags)
- Real sector
  - National Accounts: Annual — Year-end + 19 months.
  - Revised National Accounts: Variable — 8 weeks after revision.
  - National Accounts: Quarterly — End of quarter + 12 weeks.
  - Disaggregated consumer price indexes: Monthly — End of month + 2 weeks.
- Public finance
  - TOFE for the central government: Quarterly — End-quarter + 6 weeks.
  - Table of Monthly Revenues: Monthly — End of month + 3 weeks.
  - Table of monthly expenditures: Monthly — End of month + 3 weeks.
  - Information on execution of priority social and development expenditure: Quarterly — End of quarter + 4 weeks.
  - Table of all payments made by mining companies to the government under tax protocols, by type of tax: Quarterly — End-quarter + 6 weeks.
- Monetary and financial data
  - Banks' survey, financial institutions survey: Monthly (provisional); End of month + 8 weeks (final).
  - Foreign assets and liabilities and details of net foreign assets (NFA) of the BCEAO and commercial banks: Monthly — End of month + 8 weeks.
  - Lending and deposit interest rates, BCEAO policy rate, BCEAO reserve requirement: Monthly — End of month + 4 weeks.
  - Banks' prudential ratios: Monthly — End of month + 6 weeks.
- Balance of Payments
  - Balance of payments outturn: Annual — End-year + 12 months.
  - Balance of payments estimates and revisions: Quarterly — 4 weeks after each.
- External debt
  - Debt service including breakdown of principal, interest and HIPC relief: Quarterly — End of month + 4 weeks.
  - Updated information on borrowing plans, including when all new external debt will be contracted: Quarterly — End of month+ 4 weeks.
- Domestic debt
  - Debt service with principal breakdown, interest: Monthly — End of month + 4 weeks.
  - Up-to-date information on regional debt issuances and syndicated loans, including interest rates, amounts, and maturities: Monthly — End of month + 4 weeks.
- EDM
  - Detailed financial statements showing EDM's total revenues, including subsidies received; total expenditure; the level of debt owed to suppliers: Quarterly — End of month+ 4 weeks.
- Note: Preliminary national accounts data will be shared with IMF staff at the time of reviews.

*1mliea2026001 - 1. The committee overseeing the*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2026/english/1mliea2026001.pdf_