## eimusgea

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---

### Executive Summary — Overview and current state of integration
- Individual countries of the Maghreb have achieved substantial progress on trade, but as a region they remain the least integrated in the world.
- The share of intraregional trade is less than 5 percent of Maghreb countries’ total trade.
- Geopolitical considerations and restrictive economic policies have stifled regional integration.
- Economic policies have been guided by country-level considerations, with little attention to the region, and are not coordinated.
- Restrictions on trade and capital flows remain substantial and constrain regional integration for the private sector.
- The Maghreb comprises five countries—Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia—covering almost 6 million square kilometers and about 100 million people.
- Country highlights:
  - Algeria: important gas- and oil-exporting upper-middle-income country; highly dependent on hydrocarbon; faced macroeconomic challenges after the fall in oil prices in 2014.
  - Libya: major oil and gas exporter and upper-middle-income country; in civil war since 2011 with serious economic and social consequences.
  - Mauritania: lower-middle-income country; important iron ore producer; growing relatively fast but faces volatile metal prices.
  - Morocco: second largest economy in the region; relatively well diversified middle-income country; important regional producer of agricultural products, cars, and fertilizers.
  - Tunisia: small middle-income country in transition; important regional producer of electrical components, light machinery and equipment parts, olive oil, and garments; seeking to resume broad-based growth and restore macroeconomic stability.
- Recent macroeconomic and social indicators:
  - Average growth rate in the past five years has been below 2.4 percent.
  - The region is projected to grow at only 2.7 percent in the medium term.
  - Average GDP per capita growth has been hovering around zero.
  - Population-weighted unemployment rate: 12 percent overall and 25 percent for youth (15–24 yo).
  - World Bank Doing Business environment and World Economic Forum quality of institutions index vary substantially across countries, with Morocco and Tunisia scoring relatively well.

### Executive Summary — Why greater integration makes economic sense
- Integration would create a regional market of almost 100 million people with:
  - an average income of about $4,000 per capita in nominal terms
  - about $12,000 in purchasing-power-parity terms
- Expected economic benefits of deeper integration:
  - Make the region more attractive for foreign direct investment.
  - Reduce the costs of intraregional trade, capital, and labor movement.
  - Increase efficiency of resource allocation.
  - Improve resilience to exogenous shocks and market volatility.
  - Increase access to goods and services at lower prices, spur competition, promote innovation and diversification, increase transparency, reduce rents, and ultimately increase productivity and growth.

### Executive Summary — Potential economic impact
- Regional integration could contribute to raising growth in each Maghreb country by 1 percentage point on average in the long term.
- Intraregional trade may double as a result of integration and would support growth, increasing employment.
- Greater integration may lead to winners and losers within each country; public policy would need to address potential dislocations.
- Integration should be complementary to strong domestic policies, which remain the main economic driver.

### Executive Summary — Required policy actions and priorities
- To integrate, Maghreb countries would need to:
  - Lower trade and investment barriers.
  - Connect their infrastructure networks.
  - Focus efforts on goods, services, and capital and labor market liberalization.
  - Gradually eliminate barriers to intraregional trade.
  - Build regional infrastructure.
  - Improve the business environment to boost trade within the Maghreb and help further integrate global value chains.
- Integration should be complementary to Maghreb countries’ global integration.

### Executive Summary — JOINT policy objectives to advance from cooperation to integration
- Maghreb governments need to set JOINT policy objectives:
  - Job creation through higher growth;
  - Openness of each country’s economic model;
  - Inclusiveness in the distribution of growth benefits;
  - Negotiation of a new regional integration agreement;
  - Trade regionally on a much larger scale as a means to achieve those objectives.

### 1. Trade Openness — Key metrics and measures
- Trade openness defined as: Sum of non-oil exports and non-oil imports as a percent of non-oil GDP.
- Export diversification measured by: Number of markets and industries reached (2004–16).
- Export quality measured on a 0 to 1.2 scale (higher is better).
- Export penetration indexed as: number of countries to which the reporter exports a product divided by the number of countries that report importing the product that year (2015).
- GVC integration:
  - Backward GVC integration = share of foreign value added in countries’ exports (2009–13, average).
  - Forward GVC integration = share of gross exports to be used in destination countries’ exports (2009–13, average).

### 1. Trade Openness — Export structure and concentration
- Algeria: fuels account for 90 percent of total exports.
- Libya: fuels account for 98 percent of total exports.
- Mauritania: exports dominated by primary commodities such as minerals, metals, and fisheries.
- Morocco and Tunisia: more diversified export base including manufacturing (chemicals, machinery, equipment parts), agriculture, and services (tourism, financial, medical).

### 1. Trade Openness — GVC integration
- Tunisia: backward GVC integration comparable to the average for emerging market and developing economies (EMDE).
- Mauritania and Morocco: backward GVC integration is still low but improving.
- Algeria and Libya: backward GVC integration very low and stagnating.
- Algeria and Libya: forward GVC integration very high, reflecting a supplier role in downstream oil product output.
- Other Maghreb countries: relatively well integrated in forward GVCs but almost exclusively with partners outside the region.
- Regional (intra-Maghreb) GVCs: remain weak; suggested goal: emergence of a regional “Factory Maghreb.”

### 1. Trade Openness — Trade in services and tourism (selected facts, 2017)
- Morocco:
  - Reported investment in travel and tourism: $4.6 billion.
  - Travel and tourism directly contributed 8.2 percent to GDP.
  - Foreign tourists: about 10 million.
- Tunisia:
  - Reported investment in travel and tourism: $0.8 billion.
  - Travel and tourism directly contributed 6.9 percent to GDP.
  - Foreign tourists: about 7 million.
- Algeria and Mauritania: little tourism; intraregion travel and tourism limited.

### 1. Trade Openness — Intra‑Maghreb trade and major flows
- Intra-Maghreb trade is less than 5 percent of the region’s total trade.
- Comparative intra‑regional trade shares: Africa about 16 percent; Latin America 19 percent; Asia 51 percent; North America 54 percent; Europe 70 percent.
- Tunisia and Algeria export within the Maghreb as a share of their total trade at about 10 percent and 4 percent, respectively.
- Dominant intraregional flows in 2016:
  - Gas and oil exports from Algeria to Morocco and Tunisia.
  - Iron, steel, and clothing from Morocco to Algeria.
  - Iron and steel from Tunisia to Algeria.
  - Animal and vegetable oil from Tunisia to Libya.
- Only about a quarter of 20 possible bilateral trade flows are meaningfully present in intraregional trade among Maghreb countries.
- Several important exportable commodities are not traded regionally at meaningful scale (examples: cars and parts from Morocco; fertilizers from Algeria; seafood from Mauritania; electric semiconductors from Tunisia).

### 1. Trade Openness — FDI and financial integration
- Bilateral FDIs within the region are limited; Morocco’s bilateral capital flows with the Maghreb are very low.
- About half of Morocco’s FDI inflows and outflows are with Europe and other parts of the world.
- Cross-border Moroccan banks have presence in some Maghreb countries; Attijariwafa Bank present in Tunisia and Mauritania, limited expansion to Algeria and Libya.
- Cross-border financial institutions in the Maghreb are almost nonexistent.
- Financial sector heterogeneity:
  - Morocco: most developed, dynamic private banks, presence in 22 African countries.
  - Tunisia: financial development comparable to EMDEs but has weak public banks and large NPL burden.
  - Algeria and Libya: financial systems dominated by state-owned banks.
- Access to financial services: relatively high in Morocco and Tunisia but below EMDE average; lower in other countries.
- Financial technology: fintech startups growing in Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria; regulatory frameworks for digital financial services and mobile money developed in Morocco and Tunisia.
- Maghreb Bank for Investment and Foreign Trade:
  - Established in 2017 with capital of $500 million equally shared among the five countries.
  - Aims to catalyze financial integration and promote trade and investment within the region.
- Revamping of the 1991 payment system agreement among the five central banks recommended to be operational in all countries to support financial integration.
- Note on risks: financial integration could increase growth but would require careful management of potentially higher financial volatility.

### 1. Trade Openness — Labor mobility and migration
- Intra‑Maghreb official migration is marginal:
  - Share of migrants in total population of the region in 2013: 1 percent.
  - Share of migrant workers among all workers in 2013: 0.5 percent.
- Maghreb is a source of emigration, with Morocco and Algeria among top emigration countries globally.
- Emigration mainly oriented toward European Union countries.
- Barriers to intraregional labor movement include limited job growth, preference for mature markets (Europe), increasing competition from non‑Maghreb nationals, difficulties obtaining residence cards and work permits, and visa requirements among Maghreb countries.

### 1. Trade Openness — Factors explaining shallow intra‑Maghreb integration
- Policy and institutional barriers:
  - Restrictive trade and investment policies, tariff and nontariff barriers, and capital flow restrictions.
  - Capital account openness: Morocco relatively open for inflows; Algeria significant restrictions (requires majority Algerian partner); Tunisia had closed capital account until 2015 and remains tightly controlled for capital transfers abroad in some respects.
  - Capital outflow and repatriation restrictions: examples include repatriation rules in Morocco and “plowing back of profits” requirement in Algeria.
- Trade policy and tariffs:
  - Simple average applied tariff duty in Maghreb countries in 2016: about 14 percent.
  - Comparative tariffs: European Union 5 percent; United States 4 percent; China 10 percent.
  - Algeria average tariff rate: 19 percent.
  - Other Maghreb countries’ average rates: about 12 percent.
  - Import duty on agricultural products: Morocco 28 percent; Tunisia 31 percent.
  - Algeria hardened tariff and nontariff barriers in early 2018: temporary ban on import of about 850 categories of goods, extension of list of goods subject to 30 percent excise tax, and increased customs duties up to 60 percent for some products.
- Non‑tariff impediments:
  - High and variable cost to export across the region; time to export broadly comparable to EMDEs but substantially higher than advanced economies.
  - Logistics and trading‑across‑borders indicators show significant hurdles for traders in the region.
  - Numerous roadblocks, delays at border crossings, and lengthy customs clearance procedures.
- Infrastructure constraints:
  - Weak regional land and air transportation networks.
  - Cairo–Dakar Highway incomplete and Morocco–Algeria border closure prevents continuous road transport across the Maghreb.
  - Rail networks stop at borders, lacking an east–west railroad network.
  - Pipelines to Spain and Italy bypass regional neighbors.
  - Maritime transport is the primary mode for intra‑Maghreb trade but serves mainly trade with Europe; few direct regional shipping lines.
  - Morocco’s Tangier port is the main regional hub; much trans‑Maghreb maritime traffic routed through third‑country ports such as Marseille, Almeria, and Rotterdam, adding costs.

### 1. Trade Openness — Trade facilitation and recommended enablers
- Remove tariff and nontariff barriers that favor trade with Europe over intraregional trade.
- Harmonize regulations and reduce non‑tariff impediments (customs procedures, border controls, roadblocks).
- Invest in and complete regional transport infrastructure (road, rail, air connectivity).
- Develop direct maritime shipping lines among Maghreb ports and strengthen regional port competitiveness.
- Advance regulatory frameworks to spread fintech adoption and deepen financial integration.
- Operationalize regional payment system agreement and leverage the Maghreb Bank for Investment and Foreign Trade to catalyze intra‑regional financing.
- Manage risks associated with deeper financial integration to mitigate potential financial volatility.

### 1. Inflow Restrictions — Why greater Integration would Make Sense
- Maghreb is a fragmented group of neighbors sharing geography, common borders, cultural and language proximity; greater integration could leverage economies of scale, attract foreign investment, create regional value chains, integrate into GVCs, and strengthen joint negotiating capacity.
- An integrated Maghreb market would comprise almost 100 million consumers.
- Joint Maghreb 2017 GDP would exceed $360 billion.
- Regional per capita GDP would be about $4,000 in nominal terms and about $12,000 per capita in purchasing-power-parity terms.
- Integration would facilitate the free movement of parts and components across regional partners, aiding insertion into global value chains and knowledge diffusion.
- Determinants of FDI identified: market size, accumulated stock of FDI, sound economic policies, strong growth, stable exchange rate, good human capital, good infrastructure, political stability, and regulatory quality.
- Current weaknesses: insufficient interregional infrastructure; most Maghreb countries (except Tunisia) ranked below the global average in the overall quality of domestic infrastructure (WEF 2017); underperformance on political stability and regulatory quality in much of the region.
- The Maghreb has emerging transnational companies (2010 BCG report): 10 of 40 African companies studied were from the Maghreb (six from Morocco, two from Algeria, two from Tunisia); Moroccan and Tunisian companies have been investing across the Maghreb.

### 1. Inflow Restrictions — Regional trade potential and diagnostics
- Market concentration index and trade intensity index point to substantial potential for diversification of trading partners and greater intra-Maghreb trade.
- At least half of potential bilateral trade flows among Maghreb countries are either very small or nonexistent.
- Trade intensity: all Maghreb countries, except Mauritania, are more important as trade destinations for each other than they are for the rest of the world.
- Product survival: a substantial share of new export products in all value categories becomes defunct and does not reach a sufficiently high number of external markets.
- Intra‑Maghreb trade is highly complementary: Maghreb export structure corresponds to the region’s import content and is similar to import composition of major external partners.
- Trade complementarity indices for Algeria and Mauritania with the Maghreb and the EU are virtually identical.
- Some bilateral complementarities exceed complementarities with main external partners (example: Algeria–Mauritania and Algeria–Morocco indices exceed Algeria–Italy).

### 1. Inflow Restrictions — Trade diagnostics, RCA, and product-level potential
- Trade complementarity index: index on a 0 to 100 scale.
- Trade intensity index: index; above 1 indicates high trade intensity.
- Market concentration index: Index; 0 to 100, from well-diversified to highly concentrated.
- Product death and survival data indicate many export products of Maghreb countries do not survive long in foreign markets; Algeria and Mauritania export to fewer markets than other Maghreb countries.
- Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) findings, 2016 (selected examples):
  - Algeria: Natural calcium phosphates (68.9), Phosphatic fertilizers (59.6), Inorganic acids and compounds of nonmetals (21.5), Suits and costumes (20.1), Fertilizers (17.6)
  - Morocco: Gas, liquid, and electricity supply (176.1), Gypsum, plasters, limestone flux, and calcarous stone (134.0), Other outer garments (83.0), Olive oil (70.8), Phosphatic fertilizers (62.7)
  - Tunisia: Liquified petroleum gases (93.5), Petroleum gases in gaseous state (54.1), Crude petroleum (35.8), Mineral tars and products (26.8), Nitrogenous fertilizers (23.8)
- Product-level potential (two-digit HS 2012 basis): country examples where exports could expand regionally (Morocco, Tunisia, Mauritania, Algeria).

### 1. Inflow Restrictions — Potential impact on growth
- Trade integration has been found to raise growth and improve living standards (IMF, World Bank, and WTO 2017 literature review).
- Illustrative panel-based calculations (IMF 2017b): achieving greater trade openness, coupled with increased GVC participation, export diversification, or product quality, could raise the level of income by some 5 percent to 10 percent within five to 10 years in an average emerging market and developing economy.
- Greater integration within the Maghreb, along with broader structural reforms, could help achieve those objectives and increase medium-term growth rates.
- Projected average annual growth, 2018–23 (partial list shown in source): Algeria is projected at 1.6 percent; Libya at [value cut off in source].

### 3.9 percent, Tunisia at 3.4 percent, Morocco — Growth impacts of deeper Maghreb integration
- Baseline growth rates cited: 3.9 percent, Tunisia at 3.4 percent, Morocco at 4.1 percent, and Mauritania at 5.5 percent (IMF 2017b).
- Potential gains from improvements in trade measures:
  - 1 percentage point higher if Maghreb countries were to improve openness.
  - 0.7 percentage point higher if they enhanced their participation in GVCs.
  - 0.6 percentage point higher if they diversified their economies.
  - 0.2 percentage point higher if they improved their product quality.
- Growth benefits of integration are expected to increase further when Libyan reconstruction starts.

### Modelled and empirical evidence on trade integration
- AfCFTA-related CGE model (Global Trade Analysis Project) results under assumption of elimination of all tariffs on regional trade:
  - Long-term growth is expected to increase by almost 1 percent.
  - Employment is expected to increase by 1.2 percent.
  - Intraregional trade is expected to increase by 33 percent.
- MIRAGE computable general equilibrium model projections for implementing the AfCFTA:
  - 52 percent increase in trade in goods.
  - 32 percent increase in services.
- Chauvin, Ramos, and Porto (2016): short-term welfare impact of trade integration generally small but larger and more positive in the long term.
- Historical best period-over-period improvements in the Middle East and North Africa region (conditioning increases used for growth calculations):
  - Trade openness: 7.7 percentage points.
  - Global value chain: 4 percentage points.
  - Diversification: 2.4 percentage points.
  - Quality: 1.5 percentage points.

### Distributional, fiscal, and adjustment considerations
- Trade integration generally associated with poverty reduction: openness linked to accelerated growth in average incomes and poverty reduction (IMF–World Bank–WTO 2017).
- Tariff removal or reduction lowers consumer prices; a substantial part of intraregional trade in the Maghreb consists of staples consumed mainly by the poor, so tariff elimination should be largely positive for the poor’s well-being.
- Adjustment costs depend on the depth and pace of liberalization, labor market rigidities, and strength of institutions and social protection.
- Reduction or elimination of tariffs among Maghreb countries would likely not lead to substantial revenue losses because the share of intraregional trade is very low; part of revenue losses could be offset by trade creation.
- Any impact on customs revenue should ideally be addressed through a holistic tax reform.

### Policy priorities and Joint Policy Objectives
- Integration should be an instrument to achieve joint policy objectives:
  - Jobs: Foster job creation and livelihood improvement through regional value chains and private sector regional integration.
  - Openness: Adopt a new and more open economic model and greater regional labor and capital mobility.
  - Inclusiveness: Ensure additional growth creates opportunities for youth, women, rural populations, and migrants.
  - Negotiations: Negotiate a deep regional economic agreement, create a dispute resolution system and monitoring mechanisms, and resolve differences at a negotiating table.
  - Trade: Increase attention to intraregional trade; public sector coordinates policies while private sector explores new regional markets.
- Other recommended actions:
  - Target investment in tradables sectors with high employment multipliers.
  - Pursue additional trade and investment liberalization measures—unilateral, regional, and multilateral.
  - Use WTO trade policy review recommendations and accession negotiations guidance to inform reforms.
  - Strengthen data availability on intraregional investment, labor movements, and financial flows.
  - Improve governance and accountability via joint rules, credible monitoring mechanisms, and regular peer reviews.
  - Enhance financial access and regional financial integration, including joint regional financial institutions.
  - Step up and improve social safety nets and access to trade for SMEs and rural communities.

### Leveraging external opportunities and IMF support
- Use demand from Europe and global trends to generate revenue that can offset initial costs of intra-Maghreb integration.
- Greater capital account liberalization could promote FDI and build regional value-added chains and integration into GVCs.
- New investors, including through China’s Belt-Road Initiative, may bring additional investment; coordinated Maghreb engagement with BRI could direct part of investment to intraregional integration.
- Key external risks: rising protectionism globally, financial market volatility, and geopolitical instability in the region.
- Implementation steps with existing frameworks:
  - The 1989 Treaty Establishing the AMU calls on Maghreb governments to work gradually toward free movement of people and transfer of services, goods, and capital and pursue common policies—identified as specific first steps with existing buy-in.
- IMF engagement:
  - Policy advice through surveillance to preserve macroeconomic stability.
  - Financial arrangements: Mauritania (Extended Credit Facility), Tunisia (Extended Fund Facility), Morocco (Precautionary and Liquidity Line).
  - Technical assistance and training in macroeconomic areas.
  - Instruments to support regional integration efforts, including the Trade Integration Mechanism and technical assistance on tax and customs policy and administration.
- Note on the Trade Integration Mechanism:
  - Introduced in 2004 to assist member countries to meet balance of payments shortfalls that might result from trade liberalization measures implemented by other countries.
  - It is not a special lending facility, but a policy designed to make resources more predictably available under existing IMF lending facilities (IMF 2018b).

### Annex 1 — Intra‑Maghreb Trade: Revealed Comparative Advantages (selected)
- Morocco (selected RCA entries):
  - HS 2005: Vegetable preparations — RCA 35.7
  - HS 5808: Braids in the piece — RCA 34.9
  - HS 1212: Locust beans, seaweeds and algae — RCA 29.2
  - HS 6813: Friction material — RCA 29.0
  - HS 0813: Fruit, dried — RCA 27.7
  - HS 3209: Paints and varnishes — RCA 26.5
  - HS 3204: Synthetic organic colouring matter — RCA 25.2
  - HS 3105: Fertilizers; mineral or chemical — RCA 24.0
  - HS 2505: Sands — RCA 23.2
  - HS 2008: Fruit, nuts and edible parts of plants — RCA 18.1
  - HS 2104: Soups and broths — RCA 17.8
  - HS 5408: Woven fabrics — RCA 16.3
  - HS 6405: Footwear — RCA 15.8
  - HS 6805: Abrasive powder or grain — RCA 15.1
  - HS 1704: Sugar confectionery — RCA 14.6
  - HS 7209: Iron or non-alloy steel — RCA 14.4
  - HS 0904: Pepper of the genus piper — RCA 14.0
  - HS 1509: Olive oil and its fractions — RCA 12.3
  - HS 4911: Printed matter — RCA 11.4
  - HS 7208: Iron or non-alloy steel — RCA 10.8
  - HS 6910: Ceramic sinks and sanitary fixtures — RCA 10.8
  - HS 7614: Aluminium — RCA 10.8
  - HS 7010: Containers of glass — RCA 10.5
  - HS 6101: Coats — RCA 10.2
- Tunisia (selected RCA entries):
  - HS 6914: Ceramic articles — RCA 59.8
  - HS 2522: Quicklime and hydraulic lime — RCA 55.9
  - HS 2835: Phosphates and polyphosphates — RCA 44.8
  - HS 2809: Phosphoric and polyphosphoric acids — RCA 39.2
  - HS 2511: Natural barium sulphate and carbonate — RCA 34.8
  - HS 8716: Trailers and semi-trailers — RCA 32.4
  - HS 2828: Commercial calcium hypochlorite — RCA 30.6
  - HS 2836: Carbonates; peroxocarbonates — RCA 29.1
  - HS 3905: Polymers of vinyl acetate — RCA 27.5
  - HS 7309: Reservoirs, tanks, and containers; — RCA 26.0
  - HS 2001: Vegetables, fruit prepared by vinegar — RCA 23.4
  - HS 9028: Gas, liquid or electricity supply — RCA 22.7
  - HS 8548: Electrical parts; of machinery — RCA 22.2
  - HS 1207: Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits — RCA 19.6
  - HS 2523: Portland and other cement — RCA 18.0
  - HS 0910: Ginger, saffron, and other spices — RCA 17.3
  - HS 3812: Prepared rubber accelerators — RCA 15.2
  - HS 7010: Containers of glass — RCA 15.1
  - HS 8609: Containers — RCA 15.1
  - HS 4803: Tissue, towel, napkin stock or similar — RCA 13.9
  - HS 6807: Asphalt or similar material — RCA 13.2
  - HS 3212: Pigments — RCA 12.6
  - HS 8431: Machinery parts — RCA 12.6
  - HS 7310: Tanks, casks, and similar containers — RCA 12.4
  - HS 9015: Surveying instruments and appliances — RCA 11.4
  - HS 8903: Yachts and other vessels — RCA 10.6
  - HS 1517: Margarine — RCA 10.5
  - HS 3903: Polymers of styrene, in primary forms — RCA 10.1

*Source: Excerpt from the IMF PDF chapter "Economic Integration in the Maghreb—An Untapped Source of Growth."*

### Executive Summary ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

### Executive Summary

### Overview and current state of integration
- Individual countries of the Maghreb have achieved substantial progress on trade, but as a region they remain the least integrated in the world.
- The share of intraregional trade is less than 5 percent of Maghreb countries’ total trade.
- Geopolitical considerations and restrictive economic policies have stifled regional integration.
- Economic policies have been guided by country-level considerations, with little attention to the region, and are not coordinated.
- Restrictions on trade and capital flows remain substantial and constrain regional integration for the private sector.
- The Maghreb comprises five countries—Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia—covering almost 6 million square kilometers and about 100 million people.
- The region is geographically close but economically diverse (highlights):
  - Algeria: important gas- and oil-exporting upper-middle-income country; highly dependent on hydrocarbon; faced macroeconomic challenges after the fall in oil prices in 2014.
  - Libya: major oil and gas exporter and upper-middle-income country; in civil war since 2011 with serious economic and social consequences.
  - Mauritania: lower-middle-income country; important iron ore producer; growing relatively fast but faces volatile metal prices.
  - Morocco: second largest economy in the region; relatively well diversified middle-income country; important regional producer of agricultural products, cars, and fertilizers.
  - Tunisia: small middle-income country in transition; important regional producer of electrical components, light machinery and equipment parts, olive oil, and garments; seeking to resume broad-based growth and restore macroeconomic stability.
- Recent macroeconomic indicators and social conditions:
  - Average growth rate in the past five years has been below 2.4 percent.
  - The region is projected to grow at only 2.7 percent in the medium term.
  - Average GDP per capita growth has been hovering around zero.
  - Population-weighted unemployment rate: 12 percent overall and 25 percent for youth (15–24 yo).
  - The World Bank Doing Business environment and the World Economic Forum quality of institutions index vary substantially across countries, with Morocco and Tunisia scoring relatively well.

### Why greater integration makes economic sense
- Integration would create a regional market of almost 100 million people with:
  - an average income of about $4,000 per capita in nominal terms
  - about $12,000 in purchasing-power-parity terms
- Expected economic benefits of deeper integration:
  - Make the region more attractive for foreign direct investment.
  - Reduce the costs of intraregional trade, capital, and labor movement.
  - Increase efficiency of resource allocation.
  - Improve resilience to exogenous shocks and market volatility.
  - Increase access to goods and services at lower prices, spur competition, promote innovation and diversification, increase transparency, reduce rents, and ultimately increase productivity and growth.

### Potential economic impact
- Maghreb integration can play an important role in a strategy to promote higher growth in the region.
- Various estimates suggest that regional integration could contribute to raising growth in each Maghreb country by 1 percentage point on average in the long term.
- Intraregional trade may double as a result of integration and would support growth, increasing employment.
- Greater integration may lead to winners and losers within each country; public policy would need to address potential dislocations.
- Integration should be complementary to strong domestic policies, which remain the main economic driver.

### Required policy actions and priorities
- To integrate, Maghreb countries would need to:
  - Lower trade and investment barriers.
  - Connect their infrastructure networks.
  - Focus efforts on goods, services, and capital and labor market liberalization.
  - Gradually eliminate barriers to intraregional trade.
  - Build regional infrastructure.
  - Improve the business environment to boost trade within the Maghreb and help further integrate global value chains.
- Integration should be complementary to Maghreb countries’ global integration.

### JOINT policy objectives to advance from cooperation to integration
- Maghreb governments need to set JOINT policy objectives:
  - Job creation through higher growth;
  - Openness of each country’s economic model;
  - Inclusiveness in the distribution of growth benefits;
  - Negotiation of a new regional integration agreement;
  - Trade regionally on a much larger scale as a means to achieve those objectives.

*Source: Executive Summary, "Economic Integration in the Maghreb—An Untapped Source of Growth."*

### 1. Trade Openness

### 1. Trade Openness

### Key metrics and measures
- Trade openness defined as: Sum of non-oil exports and non-oil imports as a percent of non-oil GDP.
- Export diversification measured by: Number of markets and industries reached (2004–16).
- Export quality measured on a 0 to 1.2 scale (higher is better).
- Export penetration indexed as: number of countries to which the reporter exports a product divided by the number of countries that report importing the product that year (2015).
- GVC integration:
  - Backward GVC integration = share of foreign value added in countries’ exports (2009–13, average).
  - Forward GVC integration = share of gross exports to be used in destination countries’ exports (2009–13, average).

### Export structure and concentration
- Algeria: fuels account for 90 percent of total exports.
- Libya: fuels account for 98 percent of total exports.
- Mauritania: exports dominated by primary commodities such as minerals, metals, and fisheries.
- Morocco and Tunisia: more diversified export base including manufacturing (chemicals, machinery, equipment parts), agriculture, and services (tourism, financial, medical).

### Global value chain (GVC) integration
- Tunisia: backward GVC integration comparable to the average for emerging market and developing economies (EMDE).
- Mauritania and Morocco: backward GVC integration is still low but improving.
- Algeria and Libya: backward GVC integration very low and stagnating.
- Algeria and Libya: forward GVC integration very high, reflecting a supplier role in downstream oil product output.
- Other Maghreb countries: relatively well integrated in forward GVCs but almost exclusively with partners outside the region.
- Regional (intra-Maghreb) GVCs: remain weak; goal suggested is emergence of a regional “Factory Maghreb.”

### Trade in services and tourism (selected facts, 2017)
- Morocco:
  - Reported investment in travel and tourism: $4.6 billion.
  - Travel and tourism directly contributed 8.2 percent to GDP.
  - Foreign tourists: about 10 million.
- Tunisia:
  - Reported investment in travel and tourism: $0.8 billion.
  - Travel and tourism directly contributed 6.9 percent to GDP.
  - Foreign tourists: about 7 million.
- Algeria and Mauritania: little tourism; intraregion travel and tourism limited.

### Intra‑Maghreb trade and major flows
- Intra-Maghreb trade is less than 5 percent of the region’s total trade.
- Comparative intra‑regional trade shares: Africa about 16 percent; Latin America 19 percent; Asia 51 percent; North America 54 percent; Europe 70 percent.
- Tunisia and Algeria export within the Maghreb as a share of their total trade at about 10 percent and 4 percent, respectively.
- Dominant intraregional flows in 2016:
  - Gas and oil exports from Algeria to Morocco and Tunisia.
  - Iron, steel, and clothing from Morocco to Algeria.
  - Iron and steel from Tunisia to Algeria.
  - Animal and vegetable oil from Tunisia to Libya.
- Only about a quarter of 20 possible bilateral trade flows are meaningfully present in intraregional trade among Maghreb countries.
- Several important exportable commodities are not traded regionally at meaningful scale (examples: cars and parts from Morocco; fertilizers from Algeria; seafood from Mauritania; electric semiconductors from Tunisia).

### Foreign direct investment (FDI) and financial integration
- Bilateral FDIs within the region are limited; Morocco’s bilateral capital flows with the Maghreb are very low.
- About half of Morocco’s FDI inflows and outflows are with Europe and other parts of the world.
- Cross-border Moroccan banks have presence in some Maghreb countries; Attijariwafa Bank present in Tunisia and Mauritania, limited expansion to Algeria and Libya.
- Cross-border financial institutions in the Maghreb are almost nonexistent.
- Financial sector heterogeneity:
  - Morocco: most developed, dynamic private banks, presence in 22 African countries.
  - Tunisia: financial development comparable to EMDEs but has weak public banks and large NPL burden.
  - Algeria and Libya: financial systems dominated by state-owned banks.
- Access to financial services: relatively high in Morocco and Tunisia but below EMDE average; lower in other countries.
- Financial technology: fintech startups growing in Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria; regulatory frameworks for digital financial services and mobile money developed in Morocco and Tunisia.
- Maghreb Bank for Investment and Foreign Trade:
  - Established in 2017 with capital of $500 million equally shared among the five countries.
  - Aims to catalyze financial integration and promote trade and investment within the region.
- Revamping of the 1991 payment system agreement among the five central banks recommended to be operational in all countries to support financial integration.
- Note on risks: financial integration could increase growth but would require careful management of potentially higher financial volatility.

### Labor mobility and migration
- Intra‑Maghreb official migration is marginal:
  - Share of migrants in total population of the region in 2013: 1 percent.
  - Share of migrant workers among all workers in 2013: 0.5 percent.
- Maghreb is a source of emigration, with Morocco and Algeria among top emigration countries globally.
- Emigration mainly oriented toward European Union countries.
- Barriers to intraregional labor movement include limited job growth, preference for mature markets (Europe), increasing competition from non‑Maghreb nationals, difficulties obtaining residence cards and work permits, and visa requirements among Maghreb countries.

### Factors explaining shallow intra‑Maghreb integration
- Policy and institutional barriers:
  - Restrictive trade and investment policies, tariff and nontariff barriers, and capital flow restrictions.
  - Capital account openness: Morocco relatively open for inflows; Algeria significant restrictions (requires majority Algerian partner); Tunisia had closed capital account until 2015 and remains tightly controlled for capital transfers abroad in some respects.
  - Capital outflow and repatriation restrictions: examples include repatriation rules in Morocco and “plowing back of profits” requirement in Algeria.
- Trade policy and tariffs:
  - Simple average applied tariff duty in Maghreb countries in 2016: about 14 percent.
  - Comparative tariffs: European Union 5 percent; United States 4 percent; China 10 percent.
  - Algeria average tariff rate: 19 percent.
  - Other Maghreb countries’ average rates: about 12 percent.
  - Import duty on agricultural products: Morocco 28 percent; Tunisia 31 percent.
  - Algeria hardened tariff and nontariff barriers in early 2018: temporary ban on import of about 850 categories of goods, extension of list of goods subject to 30 percent excise tax, and increased customs duties up to 60 percent for some products.
- Non‑tariff impediments:
  - High and variable cost to export across the region; time to export broadly comparable to EMDEs but substantially higher than advanced economies.
  - Logistics and trading‑across‑borders indicators show significant hurdles for traders in the region.
  - Numerous roadblocks, delays at border crossings, and lengthy customs clearance procedures.
- Infrastructure constraints:
  - Weak regional land and air transportation networks.
  - Cairo–Dakar Highway incomplete and Morocco–Algeria border closure prevents continuous road transport across the Maghreb.
  - Rail networks stop at borders, lacking an east–west railroad network.
  - Pipelines to Spain and Italy bypass regional neighbors.
  - Maritime transport is the primary mode for intra‑Maghreb trade but serves mainly trade with Europe; few direct regional shipping lines.
  - Morocco’s Tangier port is the main regional hub; much trans‑Maghreb maritime traffic routed through third‑country ports such as Marseille, Almeria, and Rotterdam, adding costs.

### Trade facilitation and recommended enablers (implied from constraints)
- Remove tariff and nontariff barriers that favor trade with Europe over intraregional trade.
- Harmonize regulations and reduce non‑tariff impediments (customs procedures, border controls, roadblocks).
- Invest in and complete regional transport infrastructure (road, rail, air connectivity).
- Develop direct maritime shipping lines among Maghreb ports and strengthen regional port competitiveness.
- Advance regulatory frameworks to spread fintech adoption and deepen financial integration.
- Operationalize regional payment system agreement and leverage the Maghreb Bank for Investment and Foreign Trade to catalyze intra‑regional financing.
- Manage risks associated with deeper financial integration to mitigate potential financial volatility.

*Source: eimusgea - 1. Trade Openness (IMF staff compilation).*

### 1. Inflow Restrictions

### 1. Inflow Restrictions

### Why greater Integration would Make Sense
- Maghreb is a fragmented group of neighbors sharing geography, common borders, cultural and language proximity; greater integration could leverage economies of scale, attract foreign investment, create regional value chains, integrate into GVCs, and strengthen joint negotiating capacity.
- An integrated Maghreb market would comprise almost 100 million consumers.
- Joint Maghreb 2017 GDP would exceed $360 billion.
- Regional per capita GDP would be about $4,000 in nominal terms and about $12,000 per capita in purchasing-power-parity terms.
- Regional integration could make the Maghreb more resilient to escalating global trade conflicts.
- Determinants of FDI identified: market size, accumulated stock of FDI, sound economic policies, strong growth, stable exchange rate, good human capital, good infrastructure, political stability, and regulatory quality.
- Current weaknesses: insufficient interregional infrastructure; most Maghreb countries (except Tunisia) ranked below the global average in the overall quality of domestic infrastructure (WEF 2017); underperformance on political stability and regulatory quality in much of the region.
- Integration would facilitate the free movement of parts and components across regional partners, aiding insertion into global value chains and knowledge diffusion.
- The Maghreb has emerging transnational companies (2010 BCG report): 10 of 40 African companies studied were from the Maghreb (six from Morocco, two from Algeria, two from Tunisia); Moroccan and Tunisian companies have been investing across the Maghreb.

### Regional Trade Potential
- Market concentration index and trade intensity index point to substantial potential for diversification of trading partners and greater intra-Maghreb trade.
- At least half of potential bilateral trade flows among Maghreb countries are either very small or nonexistent.
- Trade intensity: all Maghreb countries, except Mauritania, are more important as trade destinations for each other than they are for the rest of the world.
- Product survival: a substantial share of new export products in all value categories becomes defunct and does not reach a sufficiently high number of external markets, indicating untapped potential for integration to create new external markets and improve survival rates.
- Intra-Maghreb trade is highly complementary: Maghreb export structure corresponds to the region’s import content and is similar to import composition of major external partners.
- Trade complementarity indices for Algeria and Mauritania with the Maghreb and the EU are virtually identical.
- Some Maghreb bilateral complementarities exceed complementarities with main external partners (example: Algeria–Mauritania and Algeria–Morocco indices exceed Algeria–Italy, despite larger export share going to Italy).

### Trade Diagnostics and Revealed Comparative Advantage
- Trade complementarity index: (index on a 0 to 100 scale) measures how the export profile of the reporting country matches the import profile of the partner country.
- Trade intensity index: (index; above 1 indicates high trade intensity) is calculated by dividing the share of country exports going to the partner by the share of world exports going to the partner.
- Market concentration index: (Index; 0 to 100, from well-diversified to highly concentrated) measures export dispersion across trading partners.
- Product death and survival data indicate many export products of Maghreb countries do not survive long in foreign markets; Algeria and Mauritania export to fewer markets than other Maghreb countries.
- Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) findings, 2016 (examples of top products and RCA values as presented):
  - Algeria: Natural calcium phosphates (68.9), Phosphatic fertilizers (59.6), Inorganic acids and compounds of nonmetals (21.5), Suits and costumes (20.1), Fertilizers (17.6)
  - Morocco: Gas, liquid, and electricity supply (176.1), Gypsum, plasters, limestone flux, and calcarous stone (134.0), Other outer garments (83.0), Olive oil (70.8), Phosphatic fertilizers (62.7)
  - Tunisia: Liquified petroleum gases (93.5), Petroleum gases in gaseous state (54.1), Crude petroleum (35.8), Mineral tars and products (26.8), Nitrogenous fertilizers (23.8)
- RCA interpretation: RCA indices substantially above one indicate export competitiveness; Morocco shown as most competitive in the region with substantial potential to increase exports to other Maghreb countries.
- Product-level potential (two-digit HS 2012 basis): examples of product groups where countries could expand intra-Maghreb exports:
  - Morocco: transportation services, food, metals, chemicals (relative advantage over Tunisia), minerals (over Algeria), metals (over Libya)
  - Tunisia: minerals to Algeria, vegetables to Morocco, wood to Mauritania
- Annex-level guidance (4-digit HS): Morocco can raise exports to Algeria in at least 36 products, to Tunisia in 22 products, to Mauritania in 10 products, and to Libya in eight products. Tunisia can raise regional exports in up to 30 products depending on the country. Mauritania has the least additional trade potential: increase regional exports to Morocco and Tunisia in four products, to Algeria in two products, and to Libya in one product. Algeria could increase exports in up to six products depending on the partner.

### Potential Impact of Greater Integration on Growth
- Trade integration has been found to raise growth and improve living standards (IMF, World Bank, and WTO 2017 literature review).
- Illustrative panel-based calculations (IMF 2017b) suggest that achieving greater trade openness, coupled with increased GVC participation, export diversification, or product quality, could raise the level of income by some 5 percent to 10 percent within five to 10 years in an average emerging market and developing economy.
- Greater integration within the Maghreb, along with broader structural reforms, could help achieve those objectives and increase medium-term growth rates.
- Projected average annual growth, 2018–23 (partial list shown in source): Algeria is projected at 1.6 percent; Libya at [value cut off in source].

### Key Statistics and Findings (selected)
- Integrated market size: almost 100 million consumers.
- Joint Maghreb 2017 GDP: exceed $360 billion.
- Regional per capita GDP: about $4,000 nominal; about $12,000 PPP.
- Potential income gain from greater trade openness and GVC participation: 5 percent to 10 percent within five to 10 years (average EMDE example).
- Infrastructure and competitiveness: most Maghreb countries except Tunisia rank below global average on overall quality of domestic infrastructure (WEF 2017).

*Source: Fernandez and others, 2016. Sources within text include World Integrated Trade Solutions database; UN Comtrade, 2018; WEF 2017; IMF 2013; IMF 2017b; BCG 2010.*

### 3.9 percent, Tunisia at 3.4 percent, Morocco

### eimusgea - 3.9 percent, Tunisia at 3.4 percent, Morocco

### Growth impacts of deeper Maghreb integration
- Baseline growth rates cited: 3.9 percent, Tunisia at 3.4 percent, Morocco at 4.1 percent, and Mauritania at 5.5 percent (IMF 2017b).
- Potential gains from improvements in trade measures (could raise growth by the stated amounts on average):
  - 1 percentage point higher if Maghreb countries were to improve openness.
  - 0.7 percentage point higher if they enhanced their participation in GVCs.
  - 0.6 percentage point higher if they diversified their economies.
  - 0.2 percentage point higher if they improved their product quality.
- Growth benefits of integration are expected to increase further when Libyan reconstruction starts.

### Modelled and empirical evidence on trade integration
- AfCFTA-related CGE model (Global Trade Analysis Project) results under assumption of elimination of all tariffs on regional trade:
  - Long-term growth is expected to increase by almost 1 percent.
  - Employment is expected to increase by 1.2 percent.
  - Intraregional trade is expected to increase by 33 percent.
- MIRAGE computable general equilibrium model projections for implementing the AfCFTA:
  - 52 percent increase in trade in goods.
  - 32 percent increase in services.
- Chauvin, Ramos, and Porto (2016): short-term welfare impact of trade integration generally small but larger and more positive in the long term.
- Historical best period-over-period improvements in the Middle East and North Africa region (used as conditioning increases for growth calculations):
  - Trade openness: 7.7 percentage points.
  - Global value chain: 4 percentage points.
  - Diversification: 2.4 percentage points.
  - Quality: 1.5 percentage points.

### Global Value Chain (GVC) participation and country trajectories
- Deeper participation in GVCs and development of regional value chains is a channel to strengthen growth.
- Past two decades' movements (1990–2013):
  - Morocco and Tunisia increased forward participation (contributors of intermediate inputs to other countries).
  - Algeria and Libya moved marginally backward (using more foreign inputs in their exports).
  - Mauritania’s position remained broadly unchanged.
- Becoming part of GVCs, especially middle segments, is associated with positive effects for growth (Didier and Pinat 2017).
- Experience from the EU and ASEAN suggests that greater regional integration could help Maghreb countries move up GVCs and toward central positions using both backward and forward participation advantages.

### Distributional and poverty implications
- Trade integration has been generally found to reduce poverty:
  - Joint IMF–World Bank–WTO study (2017) shows openness is associated with accelerated growth in average incomes and with poverty reduction.
  - Income growth of the poorest 20 percent increased almost in parallel with average income growth in developing countries in 1993–2008.
  - Change in real income of the lowest quintile in developing countries is strongly correlated with change in openness over the same period.
- Tariff removal or reduction lowers consumer prices; because a substantial part of intraregional trade in the Maghreb consists of staples consumed mainly by the poor, tariff elimination should be largely positive for the poor’s well-being.

### Adjustment costs, fiscal effects, and mitigation
- Potential dislocations from greater integration depend on:
  - Depth and pace of trade liberalization.
  - Health of the economy, labor market rigidities, impediments to resource reallocation, strength of institutions, adequacy of social protection policies.
- When dislocation is costly and not addressed promptly, adverse effects on individuals and communities can be large and long-lasting.
- The reduction or elimination of tariffs among Maghreb countries would likely not lead to substantial revenue losses because:
  - The share of intraregional trade is very low.
  - Revenue loss depends on share of trade taxes in fiscal revenue, tariff structure, agreed tariff reduction method, and value of trade subject to tariffs.
  - Part of possible revenue losses from lower tariffs would be offset by an increase in the taxable base due to trade creation among Maghreb countries.
- Any impact on customs revenue should ideally be addressed through a holistic tax reform.
- When dislocation costs are lower (strong growth and functioning labor markets), adverse effects are smaller; accompanying public policies designed and coordinated at the regional level can help ease adjustment costs.

### Policy priorities and Joint Policy Objectives
- Maghreb integration should be an instrument to achieve joint policy objectives rather than an end in itself.
- Boxed Joint Policy Objectives (summary of priorities):
  - Jobs: Foster job creation and livelihood improvement through regional value chains and private sector regional integration.
  - Openness: Adopt a new and more open economic model; open economies to each other via new trade and investment opportunities and greater regional labor and capital mobility.
  - Inclusiveness: Ensure additional growth from regional integration creates opportunities for youth, women, rural populations, and migrants.
  - Negotiations: Negotiate a deep regional economic agreement, create a dispute resolution system and policy monitoring mechanisms, and resolve differences at a negotiating table.
  - Trade: Increase attention to intraregional trade; while the public sector coordinates policies, the private sector should actively explore new regional markets.
- Other recommended policy actions:
  - Target investment in tradables sectors with high employment multipliers (a World Bank study suggests in MENA and Pakistan one job in infrastructure can generate of up to four additional jobs, directly and indirectly).
  - Pursue additional trade and investment liberalization measures—unilateral, regional, and multilateral.
  - Use WTO trade policy review recommendations (for Morocco, Tunisia, Mauritania) and accession negotiations guidance (for Algeria and Libya) to inform reforms.
  - Strengthen data availability and openness on intraregional investment, labor movements, and financial flows.
  - Improve governance and accountability via joint rules, credible monitoring mechanisms, and regular peer reviews.
  - Enhance financial access and regional financial integration, including joint regional financial institutions.
  - Step up and improve social safety nets and access to trade for small and medium-sized enterprises and rural communities.

### Leveraging external opportunities and risks
- Use momentum from global trends in trade and investment; demand from Europe can generate additional revenue to offset initial costs of intra-Maghreb integration.
- Greater capital account liberalization could promote FDI and build regional value-added chains and integration into GVCs.
- New investors, including through China’s Belt-Road Initiative, may bring additional investment; coordinated Maghreb engagement with BRI could direct part of investment to intraregional integration.
- Key external risks: rising protectionism globally, financial market volatility, and geopolitical instability in the region.
- Maghreb countries should collaborate on regional trade and rules-based multilateral engagement to reap benefits and reduce negative implications of global trade tensions.

### Implementation steps and IMF support
- The 1989 Treaty Establishing the AMU calls on Maghreb governments to work gradually toward free movement of people and transfer of services, goods, and capital and pursue common policies—identified as specific first steps with existing buy-in.
- The IMF is engaged with all countries in the region and provides:
  - Policy advice through surveillance to preserve macroeconomic stability.
  - Financial arrangements: Mauritania (Extended Credit Facility), Tunisia (Extended Fund Facility), Morocco (Precautionary and Liquidity Line).
  - Technical assistance and training in macroeconomic areas.
  - Instruments to support regional integration efforts, including the Trade Integration Mechanism and technical assistance on tax and customs policy and administration.
- Note on the Trade Integration Mechanism:
  - Introduced in 2004 to assist member countries to meet balance of payments shortfalls that might result from trade liberalization measures implemented by other countries.
  - It is not a special lending facility, but a policy designed to make resources more predictably available under existing IMF lending facilities (IMF 2018b).

*Source: Excerpt from the IMF PDF chapter "Economic Integration in the Maghreb—An Untapped Source of Growth."*

### Annex 1. Intra-Maghreb Trade: Revealed Comparative Advantages

### Annex 1. Intra-Maghreb Trade: Revealed Comparative Advantages

### Morocco (selected RCA entries)
- 13 — HS 2005: Vegetable preparations — RCA 35.7
- 14 — HS 5808: Braids in the piece — RCA 34.9
- 15 — HS 1212: Locust beans, seaweeds and algae — RCA 29.2
- 16 — HS 6813: Friction material — RCA 29.0
- 17 — HS 0813: Fruit, dried — RCA 27.7
- 18 — HS 3209: Paints and varnishes — RCA 26.5
- 19 — HS 3204: Synthetic organic colouring matter — RCA 25.2
- 20 — HS 3105: Fertilizers; mineral or chemical — RCA 24.0
- 21 — HS 2505: Sands — RCA 23.2
- 22 — HS 2008: Fruit, nuts and edible parts of plants — RCA 18.1
- 23 — HS 2104: Soups and broths — RCA 17.8
- 24 — HS 5408: Woven fabrics — RCA 16.3
- 25 — HS 6405: Footwear — RCA 15.8
- 26 — HS 6805: Abrasive powder or grain — RCA 15.1
- 27 — HS 1704: Sugar confectionery — RCA 14.6
- 28 — HS 7209: Iron or non-alloy steel — RCA 14.4
- 29 — HS 0904: Pepper of the genus piper — RCA 14.0
- 30 — HS 1509: Olive oil and its fractions — RCA 12.3
- 31 — HS 4911: Printed matter — RCA 11.4
- 32 — HS 7208: Iron or non-alloy steel — RCA 10.8
- 33 — HS 6910: Ceramic sinks and sanitary fixtures — RCA 10.8
- 34 — HS 7614: Aluminium — RCA 10.8
- 35 — HS 7010: Containers of glass — RCA 10.5
- 36 — HS 6101: Coats — RCA 10.2

### Tunisia (selected RCA entries)
- 1 — HS 6914: Ceramic articles — RCA 59.8
- 2 — HS 2522: Quicklime and hydraulic lime — RCA 55.9
- 3 — HS 2835: Phosphates and polyphosphates — RCA 44.8
- 4 — HS 2809: Phosphoric and polyphosphoric acids — RCA 39.2
- 5 — HS 2511: Natural barium sulphate and carbonate — RCA 34.8
- 6 — HS 8716: Trailers and semi-trailers — RCA 32.4
- 7 — HS 2828: Commercial calcium hypochlorite — RCA 30.6
- 8 — HS 2836: Carbonates; peroxocarbonates — RCA 29.1
- 9 — HS 3905: Polymers of vinyl acetate — RCA 27.5
- 10 — HS 7309: Reservoirs, tanks, and containers; — RCA 26.0
- 11 — HS 2001: Vegetables, fruit prepared by vinegar — RCA 23.4
- 12 — HS 9028: Gas, liquid or electricity supply — RCA 22.7
- 13 — HS 8548: Electrical parts; of machinery — RCA 22.2
- 14 — HS 1207: Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits — RCA 19.6
- 15 — HS 2523: Portland and other cement — RCA 18.0
- 16 — HS 0910: Ginger, saffron, and other spices — RCA 17.3
- 17 — HS 3812: Prepared rubber accelerators — RCA 15.2
- 18 — HS 7010: Containers of glass — RCA 15.1
- 19 — HS 8609: Containers — RCA 15.1
- 20 — HS 4803: Tissue, towel, napkin stock or similar — RCA 13.9
- 21 — HS 6807: Asphalt or similar material — RCA 13.2
- 22 — HS 3212: Pigments — RCA 12.6
- 23 — HS 8431: Machinery parts — RCA 12.6
- 24 — HS 7310: Tanks, casks, and similar containers — RCA 12.4
- 25 — HS 9015: Surveying instruments and appliances — RCA 11.4
- 26 — HS 8903: Yachts and other vessels — RCA 10.6
- 27 — HS 1517: Margarine — RCA 10.5
- 28 — HS 3903: Polymers of styrene, in primary forms — RCA 10.1

*Source: IMF staff calculations based on World Bank WITS (2018).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/dp/2019/english/eimusgea.pdf_