## A broad-based economic recovery requires an end to the pandemic

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**Canonical URL:** [A broad-based economic recovery requires an end to the pandemic](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/gopinath.pdf)

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### Overview
- The IMF released a detailed road map to end the COVID-19 pandemic, save lives, and restore a broad-based economic recovery ("A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic," Agarwal and Gopinath, 2021).
- The road map premise: Ending the pandemic is a necessary prerequisite to restoring jobs, livelihoods, and economic well-being.

### Current state and divergence in recovery
- Officially recorded global COVID-19 death toll rose by about 50 percent in six months and is now over 5 million.
- The actual death toll is estimated to be several times higher.
- IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2021) projections:
  - Aggregate output for advanced economies would regain its pre-pandemic trend path in 2022 and exceed it by 0.9 percent in 2024.
  - Output for emerging market and developing economies, excluding China, is expected to remain 5.5 percent below the pre-pandemic forecast in 2024.
- The divergence is driven by disparities in vaccination rates and policy support ("the great vaccine divide"):
  - As of the end of October, about 65 percent of the population in advanced economies was fully vaccinated, and booster shots were available in many of them.
  - Vaccination rate was less than 2 percent among low-income countries.
- Prolonged pandemic impact scenario:
  - Global GDP losses could rise to $5.3 trillion over five years relative to current projection, with several million more lives lost.

### Road map targets and progress
- Three broad targets:
  - Vaccinating at least 40 percent of the population in all countries by the end of 2021.
  - Vaccinating at least 70 percent of the population in all countries by the first half of 2022.
  - Tracking and insuring against downside risks (new variants, supply-chain problems).
  - Ensuring widespread access to tests, treatments, personal protective equipment, and other critical health tools.
- Progress as of the end of October:
  - Some 75 to 80 nations, mostly in Africa, were not on track to meet the end-2021 40 percent vaccination target.
  - Of these, 55 countries will likely have problems primarily with supply.
  - 24 countries will have both supply and absorption-capacity issues.

### Near-term action plan (policy recommendations)
- Immediately close the 550 million dose gap to achieve 40 percent coverage by:
  - Accelerating existing dose donations to the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) facility and pledging new donations.
  - Executing dose swaps with COVAX and the African Union (deferring delivery of doses intended for Group of Twenty [G20] countries to allow developing economies to move up in the queue).
  - Eliminating restrictions on exports of vaccines and critical inputs.
- Commit to financing the new ACT-Accelerator budget of about $23 billion to ensure all countries can access necessary volumes of vaccines, tests, treatments, and personal protective equipment. (The ACT-Accelerator is a partnership of the world’s international health organizations to fight COVID-19.)
- Maintain collective accountability of progress through frequent engagement between Group of Seven advanced economies, the broader G20, and other key stakeholders.

### Longer-term measures and lessons learned
- Expand regional manufacturing capacity of vaccines in developing economies and monitor risks.
- Key lessons:
  - Pandemic policy is economic policy; there is no durable end to the economic crisis without an end to the health crisis.
  - Ending the pandemic is critical for global macroeconomic and financial stability and is central to IMF projections and policy recommendations.
  - Systemic risks posed by future pandemics and global health concerns should be more explicitly accounted for in economic analysis and surveillance.
  - The world needs better stewardship of global public goods, including preparedness to fight future pandemics, requiring greater coordination and collective action.
  - The G20 High Level Independent Panel’s report on pandemic preparedness provides several concrete steps in this regard.

*Content based on the Finance & Development article by Ruchir Agarwal and Gita Gopinath (December 2021).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2021/december/gopinath.pdf_