## picture-this-0923 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [picture-this-0923](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2023/september/picture-this-0923.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2023/september/picture-this-0923.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2023/september/picture-this-0923.pdf.json) --- ### Rapid historical growth - Global population milestone: "8 billion." - India overtook China as the world's most populous country in April. - Africa's population in 1900: "about 140 million" (accounted for "9 percent" of the world population). - Africa's total population has "increased tenfold" and "now stands at over 1.4 billion." - Africa "currently accounts for roughly half the global increase" in population and "every two years adds as many people as live in France." ### Medium- and long-term projections - UN projection for Africa by 2050: "close to 2.5 billion." - If reached, Africa would constitute "more than 25 percent" of the world's population by 2050. - Africa's share of the world’s population is "set to reach close to 40 percent by the end of the century." - By 2100 "two out of every five people on Earth are expected to be African." - Population trajectory and charting are based on the "UN medium-fertility scenario." ### Countries driving global population growth - The UN expects "just eight countries to account for more than half of the increase in global population over the next three decades." - Of those eight countries, "five of those countries are in Africa." - Countries highlighted in growth charts: "INDIA", "PHILIPPINES", "PAKISTAN", "DRC", "TANZANIA", "ETHIOPIA", "NIGERIA", "EGYPT", and "CHINA." - Nigeria is "forecast to become the world’s third-most-populous country." - Metric shown in source charts: annual population growth, millions (timeline markers: 1950, 2000, 2050, 2100). ### Age structure and demographic opportunity - Definition: "Median age divides the population into two equal parts, with half older and half younger than the median age." - Median age in Africa (2021): "18.6." - The working-age population in the fast-growing African countries "will grow faster than any other age group." - The projected "youthful shift" and rising median age "over time will shift upward, sparking economic opportunities and a potential demographic dividend." ### Economic and geopolitical implications - The projected population shift and potential demographic dividend "could have profound economic effects and even alter the world order." - Some African states may "possibly emerg[e] as new world powers" as a result of demographic change. ### Policy priorities and recommendations - Investment in human capital, including "education," is identified as "critical to ensure this potential is realized." - Emphasis on converting the youthful shift into economic opportunities through human-capital investment. ### Data sources and notes - SOURCES: United Nations, World Population Prospects (2022); and Our World in Data. - Figures and metrics shown in the source: annual population growth (millions), median age (2021), and population (billions). *Source: picture-this-0923 (PDF chapter/section).* ### Section 1 ### picture-this-0923 - Section 1 ### Rapid historical growth - Global population milestone: "8 billion." - India overtook China as the world's most populous country in April. - Africa's population in 1900: "about 140 million" (accounted for "9 percent" of the world population). - Africa's total population has "increased tenfold" and "now stands at over 1.4 billion." - Africa "currently accounts for roughly half the global increase" in population and "every two years adds as many people as live in France." ### Medium- and long-term projections - UN projection for Africa by 2050: "close to 2.5 billion." - If reached, Africa would constitute "more than 25 percent" of the world's population by 2050. - Africa's share of the world’s population is "set to reach close to 40 percent by the end of the century." - By 2100 "two out of every five people on Earth are expected to be African." - Population trajectory and charting are based on the "UN medium-fertility scenario." ### Countries driving global population growth - The UN expects "just eight countries to account for more than half of the increase in global population over the next three decades." - Of those eight countries, "five of those countries are in Africa." - Countries highlighted in growth charts include: "INDIA", "PHILIPPINES", "PAKISTAN", "DRC", "TANZANIA", "ETHIOPIA", "NIGERIA", "EGYPT", and "CHINA." - Nigeria is "forecast to become the world’s third-most-populous country." - Annual population growth and projections are shown in millions in the source charts. ### Age structure and demographic opportunity - Median age concept: "Median age divides the population into two equal parts, with half older and half younger than the median age." - Median age in Africa (2021): "18.6." - The working-age population in the fast-growing African countries "will grow faster than any other age group." - The projected "youthful shift" and rising median age "over time will shift upward, sparking economic opportunities and a potential demographic dividend." ### Economic and geopolitical implications - The projected population shift and potential demographic dividend "could have profound economic effects and even alter the world order." - Some African states may "possibly emerg[e] as new world powers" as a result of demographic change. ### Policy priorities and recommendations emphasized - Investment in human capital, including "education," is identified as "critical to ensure this potential is realized." - The source emphasizes converting the youthful shift into economic opportunities through human-capital investment. *Sources: United Nations, World Population Prospects (2022); and Our World in Data.* ### Section 2 ### picture-this-0923 - Section 2 ### Major finding: Rising giants - Five of eight countries expected to account for over half of global population growth to 2050 are in Africa. - Nigeria is forecast to become the world’s third-most-populous country. - Metric shown: annual population growth, millions (timeline markers: 1950, 2000, 2050, 2100). - Countries listed in the figure: INDIA; PHILIPPINES; PAKISTAN; DRC; TANZANIA; ETHIOPIA; NIGERIA; EGYPT; CHINA. ### Demographic measure highlighted - Median age divides the population into two equal parts, with half older and half younger than the median age. - Metric shown: median age, 2021. - Additional axis/scale notation: Population, billions. ### Data sources and notes - SOURCES: United Nations, World Population Prospects (2022); and Our World in Data. *picture-this-0923 - Section 2, source PDF: picture-this-0923 - Section 2* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2023/september/picture-this-0923.pdf_