## We Must Place Our Hope in Multilateralism

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**Canonical URL:** [We Must Place Our Hope in Multilateralism](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2024/09/brown-pov.pdf)

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### Context and central argument
- Global shifts are exposing failures of the post–Cold War economic paradigm—unipolarity, hyperglobalization, and neoliberal economics—and creating a new wave of populist nationalism exemplified by “America First,” “Russia First,” “India First,” “China First,” and “my country first and only” movements.
- The author argues that only strengthened multilateralism can prevent fragmentation and deepening crises and advance prosperity, progress, and hope.

### Three structural shifts in the international order
- From unipolarity to multipolarity
  - Countries feel released from a “unipolar straitjacket,” enabling hedging, fence-sitting, and acting as “swing states.”
  - Only 45 countries are imposing sanctions against Russia.
  - BRICS membership has expanded from 5 to 10, with more members on the way.

- From neoliberal free-trade economics to mercantilism and protectionism
  - Policies include US “friend-shoring,” European “de-risking,” and Chinese “self-reliance.”
  - Last year saw nearly 3,000 trade restrictions implemented globally.
  - The IMF suggests that global losses from increased trade fragmentation could carry a long-term cost of up to 7 percent of global GDP.

- From hyperglobalization to constrained, security- and equity-aware globalization
  - More than 100 countries have adopted national industrial policies.
  - Over 2,500 protectionist measures recorded in the past year alone.
  - “Just in case” procurement has replaced “just in time.”
  - Firms adopt “China plus one, two, three, four, or even five” strategies.

### Economic outlook and poverty implications
- Global growth and historical context
  - Global growth estimated to be 2.8 percent by 2030, significantly below historical averages of 3.8 percent.
  - The IMF’s World Economic Outlook warns that the 2020s could be the worst decade for growth in recent times.

- Poverty and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
  - Extreme poverty now stands at about 700 million people.
  - At current rates of progress, poverty will still affect 600 million in 2030.
  - Emerging market and developing economies, excluding China, need $3 trillion a year by 2030 to fund climate action and the SDGs, of which $2 trillion should be raised domestically and $1 trillion will have to come from outside.

### Key institutional and governance statistics noted
- IMF capacity and governance
  - The IMF should mobilize its $1 trillion lending capacity for better insurance against economic shocks.
  - With 59.1 percent of voting shares in the IMF held by countries representing 13.7 percent of the world’s population, India’s and China’s combined share is only 9 percent—indicating a need to reform the IMF’s constitution.

- Multilateral development financing targets
  - The Summers-Singh Group of Twenty (G20) report has proposed that multilateral development banks provide an annual increase of $260 billion.

### Policy recommendations and institutional reforms
- World Trade Organization (WTO)
  - Use the director-general’s skills to solve trade disputes by conciliation, arbitration, and negotiation, moving away from an overly legalistic and broken judge-based appeal system.

- International Monetary Fund (IMF)
  - Enhance the IMF’s role in crisis prevention and crisis resolution.
  - Prioritize the IMF as an early-warning system for the world economy.
  - Mobilize the IMF’s $1 trillion lending capacity.
  - Negotiate a much-improved sovereign debt restructuring mechanism to create a more comprehensive global financial safety net.

- World Bank and multilateral development banks
  - The World Bank should become a global public goods bank focused on human capital and environmental stewardship, as proposed by its new president.
  - Multilateral development banks will need further funds from shareholders through a capital increase.
  - Innovative financial mechanisms, including guarantees to de-risk and scale up private sector investment, must be mobilized to complement public funding.

- G20 governance
  - The G20 should become the premier forum for global economic cooperation.
  - It needs to be more representative through a constituency system and assemble a professional secretariat to ensure continuity of policy from year to year.

### Scenarios and concluding choice
- Two possible paths:
  - One path leads toward global fragmentation and deepening crises driven by protectionism, power-based order, and fractured cooperation.
  - The other path, achievable through collective action and strengthened multilateral institutions, will bring prosperity, progress, and hope.
- The author chooses hope and calls for visionary leadership and willingness to work together, citing historical multinational successes (e.g., Kennedy’s nuclear test ban treaty, Reagan–Gorbachev arms reductions, ozone depletion prevention, 2009 G20 stabilization, Paris accord on climate) as evidence of what cooperation can achieve.

*Source: Gordon Brown, “We Must Place Our Hope in Multilateralism,” F&D, September 2024.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2024/09/brown-pov.pdf_