## pt-productivity

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### Demographic decline: scope and implications
- Over half of the world’s economies, accounting for two-thirds of the global population, now have fertility rates below the replacement fertility level of 2.1 children per woman.
- Without action, these populations will age and decline over time.
- Lower birth rates result in a smaller working-age population, which in turn affects economic productivity and increases the burden on social support systems.
- The ratio of retirees to workers is rising, leading to higher costs for pensions and health care, and putting pressure on public finances.

### Regional contrasts and fertility patterns
- Countries already experiencing pronounced demographic transition: Italy, Japan, and Germany.
- High-fertility regions: sub-Saharan Africa has high fertility rates and a young, growing population that requires investment in education, healthcare, and job creation.
- In a few countries in Africa, such as Somalia, Chad, Niger, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and the Central African Republic, women are still having more than six children on average.
- The majority of other countries with high fertility rates are in Africa, with some also in the Middle East and Asia.

### Projections and key statistics
- By 2050, the number of people 65 and older will double to 1.6 billion.
- By 2050, nearly 20 economies, all located in Asia and Europe, are expected to have an old-age dependency ratio exceeding 50%.
- Japan’s old-age dependency ratio in 2023: meaning that for every two working-age adults (15–64), there is at least one person aged 65 or older.
- With high fertility rates and already large population bases, Nigeria and Pakistan are expected to become the world’s fourth and third most populous countries sometime after mid-century.
- For more than half of the world’s countries and areas, the fertility rate is now below the replacement level; without immigration, these populations will decline, with some already beginning to recede.

### Policy responses and adaptive strategies
- Pro-natalist policies observed:
  - Nordic countries offer generous parental leave and subsidized childcare to encourage higher birth rates.
  - Singapore provides financial incentives for families to have more children.
- Productivity-preserving strategies:
  - Investing in technology and automation, as seen in countries such as Japan, can help enhance productivity despite a shrinking workforce.
- Development priorities for high-fertility countries:
  - Invest in education and healthcare and create jobs to support a young and growing population, leveraging youthful demographics to support economic growth.

### Definitions and notes
- Replacement rate: the level at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration. This rate is generally considered to be 2.1 live births per woman.

*Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects (2024); Finance & Development (September 2024).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2024/09/pt-productivity.pdf_