## MIGRATION HAS PROPELLED HUMAN PROGRESS FOR HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF YEARS

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**Canonical URL:** [MIGRATION HAS PROPELLED HUMAN PROGRESS FOR HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF YEARS](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2025/06/goldin.pdf)

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### Human origins and long-run role of migration
- Migration is framed as central to human progress: a story of peaceful cooperation, exchange, and also violence.
- Key prehistoric milestones and time markers preserved in the source:
  - "at least 300,000 years ago" — early development of skills to migrate longer distances.
  - "About 65,000–70,000 years ago" — migration into the Middle East, then Asia and Europe.
  - "Before the end of the last ice age, over 25,000 years ago" — crossing from Siberia into the Americas.
  - "About 6,000 years ago, in Eurasia, horses were domesticated" followed by the wheel and cart facilitating longer journeys and movement of plants and animals.
- Migrants carried habits, technologies, and economic activities that facilitated exchange of knowledge and innovation across regions.
- Empirical illustrations of migrants’ contributions to destination countries:
  - Immigrants in the United States account for a disproportionately large share of intellectual leadership, including Nobel laureates, Oscar-winning directors, and founders of unicorn start-ups valued at more than $1 billion.
  - Immigrants to the United Kingdom make up a third of authors awarded the Booker Prize.
- Effects on origin countries:
  - Migrants send home over $1 trillion a year in remittances, exceeding aid and investment flows combined for many developing economies.

### Unequal encounters, colonization, and coerced migration
- Migration encounters have been productive but also a source of conflict when one group dominated another, leading to invasion and subjugation.
- Historical forced migration and unfree labor:
  - Slavery is identified as "the most extreme version of coerced labor that has forced people to migrate."
  - The line between free and unfree employment often blurred, with subtle differences among coercion types (indentured, bonded labor).
- European expansion and its consequences:
  - The arrival of Europeans in the Americas carried deadly pathogens; example with timing and demographic impact:
    - "In 1519, ships with little more than 600 Spaniards landed on the coast of Mexico. Within a century the 20 million inhabitants of the Aztec empire were reduced to just over a million, many through violence, but the majority from disease."
- Columbian Exchange (post-1492):
  - Irreversible cross-pollination of crops, animals, commodities, diseases, technologies, and ideas.
  - Examples of bi-directional transfers:
    - From the Americas to other continents: tobacco, cacao, maize, potatoes, rubber, tomatoes, vanilla.
    - From elsewhere to the Americas: sugar, rice, wheat, coffee, onions, mangoes, bananas, apples, citrus.
  - Domesticated animals introduced by Spaniards provided new food sources and transportation, including horseback riding.

### Age of mass migration (mid-19th century–1914)
- Characterized by unprecedented numbers and distances covered, driven by unrest, pogroms, famines, new opportunities, and transport technologies (steam and rail).
- Millions of European migrants crossed the Atlantic; comparable movements across southern and central Asia and the Pacific.
- Government encouragement of migration in this era:
  - Abolition of slavery in Britain and its colonies in 1836 and in the United States in 1865 led governments and employers to attract voluntary migrants and indentured laborers.
- Internal European migration paralleled emigration until the 1890s; industrialization shifted labor toward urban centers and new industries, while rural migration supplied mines and farms.
- Infrastructure demands accompanying economic growth included "the need to dig canals, lay roads and railways, and build new steamships and ports."

### Nationalism, protectionism, and the 20th century ruptures
- Late 19th–early 20th century shifts:
  - Rising nationalism and economic protectionism eroded the view that open borders encouraged prosperity.
  - New rules sought to control entry and exit; identity cards and passports allowed nation-states to choose who could move and regulate migrants’ access to jobs and government support.
- World War I and interwar period:
  - The war increased antipathy toward foreigners and abruptly ended the age of mass migration.
- World War II and its aftermath:
  - "The immense upheaval of World War II left millions of refugees stranded on foreign shores."
  - Casualties and displacement figures: "In addition to 40 million civilians killed, at least 11 million refugees found themselves outside their country of origin."
  - Decolonization and partition-driven movements:
    - 1947 partition of India and Pakistan: "About 18 million people were forced to move between the new territories."
    - 1948 Israel declaration: Jewish population had grown to "about 1.2 million" after migrations; majority of Palestinian-Arab residents were expelled or fled, creating a persistent refugee crisis.
- Cold War and Soviet collapse:
  - The Soviet Union spanned "roughly two and a half times the size of the US" and comprised 15 states.
  - In 1991 the USSR collapsed and the 15 former Soviet socialist republics reasserted independence; many ethnic Russians returned to Russia, and millions moved between former republics in Central Asia.

### Migration today — trends, scale, and demographics
- Global migrant stock and shares:
  - Migrants nearly doubled "from 153 million in 1990 to 281 million in 2020" (UN figure for 2020).
  - As a share of the total population, migrants are only modestly higher than in the past: "In 2020, about 3.6 percent of recorded citizens were born in a different country; 30 years earlier, it was 2.9 percent."
- Global population context and projection:
  - Historical population levels: "from 2.5 billion people in 1950 to 5.3 billion in 1990, to today’s 8 billion."
  - Projection: "The world’s population is expected to approach 9.5 billion in the middle of this century, then fall to below current levels by the end of it."
- Changing country definitions and measurement:
  - More than 50 new countries since World War II means people who previously moved within countries are now counted as international migrants.
- Return migration and incentives:
  - "Anywhere from a fifth to half of migrants return home or move to a third country within five years."
  - Motivations for return include savings accumulation, gained qualifications, settling to raise a family, or retirement.
- Enduring characteristics of migrants:
  - Migrants are characterized as prepared to take risks and make sacrifices—traits credited with preventing species extinction during early evolution and driving human progress.

### Analysis and implications (as presented in the source)
- Migration has been a persistent driver of innovation, knowledge diffusion, and economic development across human history.
- Encounters between distinct populations can yield high productivity through exchange but also create conflict when inequalities of power arise.
- Large-scale forced movements (slavery, partition, purges, refugee flows) have inflicted catastrophic demographic and humanitarian consequences, altering regional demographics and politics.
- Technological advances in transport and communication have reshaped migration patterns, as have political institutions and policies (passports, identity documents, immigration controls).
- Demographic changes (slowing global population growth and shifting age structures) and state formation since World War II have altered both the scale and the definition of international migration.
- Return migration is common and can be part of development dynamics when migrants save money or acquire skills abroad.

*Ian Goldin, "A Moving History" — Feature article in Finance & Development (June 2025), drawing on The Shortest History of Migration.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2025/06/goldin.pdf_