## RESILIENCE AMID UNCERTAINTY

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**Canonical URL:** [RESILIENCE AMID UNCERTAINTY](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2025/12/pt.pdf)

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### Global context
- GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY has surged to new highs; world sentiment is holding up—described as a paradoxical mix of “anxiety and resilience” by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in a speech on October 17, 2025.
- IMF medium-term priorities highlighted:
  - repairing public finances
  - addressing internal and external imbalances
  - lifting trend growth
  - regional integration is identified as a key lever for resilience
- Policy prescription quoted: “Reduce your internal frictions and press forward with integration for resilience and growth,” Kristalina Georgieva.

### Trade openness vs. economic size (2024)
- Key pattern described:
  - Larger economies such as the United States and China dominate world trade but are relatively less open.
  - Many smaller economies are more open to trade (higher imports as a share of own GDP) yet carry less influence in shaping global trade.
  - The result: larger economies shape global trade; smaller, more open ones are more exposed to shifting conditions.
- Chart elements and numeric labels preserved from source:
  - 10%1
  - 10.10.010.001
  - 100%: Imports/own GDP
  - Imports/world imports, log scale
  - Imports/own GD P 50 0 100%
  - 2024
- Trading blocs highlighted and regrouped by combined GDP:
  - AFRICAN CONTINENTAL FREE TRADE AREA (AfCFTA)
  - MERCOSUR
  - PACIFIC ALLIANCE
  - EUROPEAN UNION (EU)
  - CHINA
  - UNITED STATES
  - OTHER COUNTRIES
  - GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL (GCC)
  - ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS (ASEAN)
- Observation: When viewed collectively, regional trading blocs move closer to the world’s largest economies on the trade map, illustrating how integration can magnify both economic heft and resilience.

### Strategic implications and recommendations
- Regional integration as a resilience strategy:
  - Joining forces in regional blocs creates scale and stability that no single economy can achieve alone.
  - Integration can help smaller, export-dependent economies gain negotiating power and reduce vulnerability to changing global conditions.
- Practical policy focus for governments:
  - Reduce internal frictions to facilitate deeper regional cooperation.
  - Pursue integration to build confidence and support sustained growth amid rising uncertainty.

*Source: IMF staff article (December 2025), drawing on an October 17, 2025 speech by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2025/12/pt.pdf_