## Picture This

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**Canonical URL:** [Picture This](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2026/06/picture-this.pdf)

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### Energy system trends and buffers
- Global energy intensity has "roughly halved since 1980."
- "Each dollar of output now requires roughly half as much energy as it did in 1980."
- Oil’s share of the global energy mix "has fallen from about half in 1973 to less than a third today."
- Renewables in the charts include "hydropower, wind, solar, biofuels, geothermal, biomass, and waste energy."
- Total energy consumption is measured in British thermal units per unit of GDP in the figures.

### Recent shock: Strait of Hormuz disruption and oil prices
- "OIL PRICES have risen sharply with the latest war in the Middle East."
- The Strait of Hormuz is "a route for about a quarter of seaborne oil trade," and its effective closure represents "a major global supply shock."
- Short-term buffers that limited broader financial tightening:
  - Oil markets were "well supplied heading into the disruption."
  - "Strategic stock releases added barrels."
  - "Buoyant financial markets helped limit broader tightening in financial conditions."

### Structural cushions and limits
- Two structural factors cushioning the shock:
  - Greater energy efficiency compared with 50 years ago ("roughly half" the energy per dollar).
  - A more diversified energy system with a smaller oil share (from "about half in 1973 to less than a third today").
- These cushions are uneven across countries; severity depends on:
  - How much oil an economy imports.
  - How much policy space its government has to respond.

### Exposure and vulnerability across countries
- "More than 80 percent of countries are net oil importers."
- The most vulnerable countries entered the episode "with limited room in public budgets to shield households and businesses."
- Visual data notes from the figures:
  - Beeswarm plot separates net oil importers from net oil exporters; "over 80 percent of countries sitting on the import side."
  - Countries "directly hit by the war" are highlighted in red, showing damage "has fallen disproportionately on major oil exporters."
  - A scatterplot compares net oil exports (for 2024; includes crude and refined products) with average sovereign credit ratings (latest available), using ratings as a proxy for policy space.
  - The "bottom-left quadrant is where the vulnerable oil importers sit, largely filled by sub-Saharan African and small island developing economies."
- Regional callouts:
  - "Sub-Saharan Africa excludes small island developing economies, shown separately."
  - Small island developing economies and sub-Saharan Africa populate the more vulnerable area of the rating–import dependence space.

### Data and credit-source notes
- Net oil exports data point: "Net oil exports are for 2024 (includes crude and refined products)."
- Credit ratings are "latest available" and average ratings are "the mean of available agency ratings, rounded to the nearest notch."
- Agencies cited in the figures: Fitch; IMF; Moody’s; and S&P Global.

*Finance & Development, June 2026.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2026/06/picture-this.pdf_