## The Middle Power Moment

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### Geopolitics and the global economy
- Geopolitical rivalry now shapes trade flows, capital flows, technology use, and the functioning of multilateral institutions.
- "The US withdrawal from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and other global platforms" is cited as evidence that old anchors of coordination cannot be taken for granted.
- Influence increasingly depends on the ability to convene, bridge divides, and shape agendas rather than solely on economic size or military might.

### Role and opportunities for middle powers (including India)
- Emerging plurilateralism: coalitions are smaller, issue-specific, and often transient; middle powers can convene and lead pragmatic cooperation.
- Existing multilateral development institutions with limited or indirect US influence are identified as venues for less polarized cooperation (examples listed in the source).
- India’s attributes cited as leverage:
  - Large, diverse democracy with diplomatic tradition of dialogue and consensus.
  - Economic scale and recent leadership experience (presidency of the Group of 20).
  - Continued political stability.

### Four common challenges facing middle powers
- Challenge 1 — Geopolitics in energy and climate transition:
  - India is the world’s fourth largest economy and the world’s third largest oil consumer.
  - India is committed to net zero emissions by 2070 and 500 gigawatts of non-fossil energy capacity by 2030.
  - Renewable energy already exceeds 50 percent of installed capacity.
  - Climate finance gap: developing economies require at least $310 billion annually for adaptation; current flows are only $26 billion.
  - Advanced-economy fiscal challenges and an average fiscal deficit of emerging market economies at about 5.5 percent of GDP complicate the transition.

- Challenge 2 — Excess capacity and industrial dynamics:
  - In 2023, China produced 1,019 million metric tons of crude steel.
  - Excess global steel is projected to be 644 million metric tons.
  - Solar photovoltaic manufacturing will soon be twice as high as global demand.
  - These dynamics reshape trade via tariffs, subsidies, and industrial policies; India aims for calibrated protection while staying integrated in global markets.

- Challenge 3 — Demographic divergence and migration:
  - Median age is less than 20 in Africa and below 30 in India.
  - Labor surpluses in Africa and India contrast with shrinking populations in parts of East Asia and Europe.
  - The United Nations Global Commission on International Migration sought rational discussion of inevitable migration; the author warns against framing migration as a crisis.
  - A younger demographic profile is beneficial only if matched by skills and employment opportunities.

- Challenge 4 — Technology, digital inequality, and skills gaps:
  - Only 1 percent of 14- to 18-year-olds in India have received formal skills training.
  - Businesses will need 1.25 million professionals in artificial intelligence by 2027.
  - Emerging markets must invest in human capital and R&D to attract a greater share of the $877 billion in global foreign direct investment and to ensure technological progress drives productivity while preserving macroeconomic sustainability and social equity.

### Policy implications and path forward
- Reforming multilateralism:
  - The old universal architecture is becoming less relevant; smaller, pragmatic coalitions should be strengthened.
  - Middle powers must be "at the table, not on the menu" and can catalyze new coalitions among emerging market and developing economies.
  - A revival of the spirit of nonalignment is advocated, adapted to overlapping economic interests rather than Cold War ideological blocs.

- Domestic and international priorities for India and similar middle powers:
  - Pursue sound economics and strategic clarity with political stability and orderly change.
  - Calibrate industrial policy to shield domestic industry from unfair competition while preserving global integration.
  - Invest massively and steadily in human capital and R&D to close skills gaps (especially for AI) and attract FDI.
  - Manage migration as an orderly response to labor imbalances, not as a crisis.
  - Use diplomatic leverage to build bridges across fragmented blocs and shift focus from confrontation to conscious cooperation.

- Strategic framing:
  - Fragmentation need not imply disorder; middle-income countries can play constructive roles bilaterally, multilaterally, and through individual initiatives.
  - India’s choices will shape both its trajectory and the contours of middle powers in the emerging global order.

*N. K. Singh, "The Middle Power Moment," June 2026.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2026/06/singh.pdf_