## fmstatapp — Methodological and Statistical Appendix (extract)

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### Accounting adjustments and cross‑country comparability
- Expenditure and fiscal balances of the United States are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditure under the 2008 SNA adopted by the United States, but this is not true for countries that have not yet adopted the 2008 SNA.
- Data for the United States may thus differ from data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- Gross and net debt levels reported by the BEA and national statistical agencies for other countries that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined‑benefit pension plans.
- For countries that adopted the 2008 SNA, gross/net debt levels adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities for cross-country comparability (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong SAR, United States).

### Fiscal policy assumptions and projection methodology
- Historical data and projections of key fiscal aggregates are in line with those of the April 2018 WEO, unless noted otherwise.
- Short-term fiscal policy assumptions:
  - Based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns.
- Medium-term fiscal projections:
  - Incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented.
  - When IMF staff has insufficient information to assess authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless indicated otherwise.
- Fiscal projections are adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s forecasts for key macroeconomic and financial variables and different accounting treatment of financial sector support and defined‑benefit pension plans, and are converted to a general government basis.
- Data are compiled using SNA 2008, and when translated into government finance statistics, this is in accordance with GFSM 2014.
- Because of data limitations, most series begin in 2001.
- Nominal GDP is estimated assuming the GDP deflator rises in line with IMF staff’s projection of average inflation.
- Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using IMF staff’s estimate of the average exchange rate for the year.

### Country-by-country bases for projections (selected excerpts)
- Argentina: Based on available information regarding budget outturn and budget plans for the federal and provincial governments, fiscal measures announced by the authorities, and on IMF staff macroeconomic projections.
- Australia: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the fiscal year 2017/18 budgets of the Commonwealth and States and Territories; the Commonwealth’s 2017 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook and Updates by States and Territories; and IMF staff estimates.
- Belgium: Based on the 2017–20 Stability Programme and other available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for the IMF staff’s assumptions.
- Brazil: Projections for the end of 2018 take into account budget performance through January, 2018, and the deficit target approved in the budget law.
- Canada: Use baseline forecasts in the 2018 federal budget and the latest provincial budget updates as available; IMF staff adjustments include differences in macroeconomic projections and incorporation of Statistics Canada releases through the fourth quarter of 2017.
- China: Assume that the pace of fiscal consolidation is likely to be gradual, reflecting reforms to strengthen social safety nets and the social security system announced as part of the Third Plenum reform agenda.
- France: Projections for 2017 reflect the budget law and cancelation of spending taken in July 2017. For 2018–22, based on the multiyear budget and the 2018 budget adjusted for differences in assumptions on macro and financial variables, and revenue projections.
- Germany: Projections for 2017 and beyond based on the 2018 Draft Budgetary Plan, adjusted for differences in the IMF staff’s macroeconomic framework and assumptions concerning revenue elasticities. The estimate of gross debt includes portfolios of impaired assets and noncore business transferred to institutions that are winding up, as well as other financial sector and EU support operations.
- Greece: Primary balance estimates for 2016 based on preliminary EDP data on an accrual basis (ESA 2010) provided by ELSTAT as of October 23, 2017. Fiscal data since 2010 are adjusted in line with program definition.
- India: Historical data based on budgetary execution data. Projections based on available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for IMF staff assumptions. Subnational data are incorporated with a lag of up to two years; general government data are thus finalized well after central government data. IMF and Indian presentations differ on divestment and license auction proceeds, net versus gross recording of revenues in certain minor categories, and some public sector lending.
- Ireland: Projections based on the country’s Budget 2018.
- Israel: Historical data based on Government Finance Statistics data prepared by the Central Bureau of Statistics. The central government deficit is assumed to remain at the current ceiling level of 2.9 percent of GDP throughout the projection period, rather than declining in line with medium-term fiscal targets.
- Japan: Projections include fiscal measures already announced by the government, including the consumption tax hike in October 2019.
- Netherlands: Projections for 2017–23 based on the authorities’ Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis budget projections, after differences in macroeconomic assumptions are adjusted for. Historical data were revised after the Central Bureau of Statistics released revised macro data in June 2014 after adopting the ESA 2010 and revising data sources.
- Philippines: Projections assume that the authorities’ fiscal deficit target for the national government will be achieved in 2018 and beyond. Revenue projections reflect IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and incorporate anticipated revenue-enhancing tax reforms. Expenditure projections are based on budgeted figures, institutional arrangements, current data, and fiscal space in each year.
- Portugal: Projections for the current year are based on the authorities’ approved budget, adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s macroeconomic forecast. Projections thereafter are based on the assumption of unchanged policies.
- Romania: Projections for 2018 reflect the adopted budget measures as of February 2018 (including increases in wages and pensions, and changes to labor taxation). Projections for 2019 reflect the full effect of the 2018 budget measures and the impact of the unified wage law. Apart from the impact of the unified wage law which will be gradually implemented until 2022, no additional policy changes are assumed beyond 2019.
- Russia: Projections for 2018-2020 are IMF staff estimates based on the authorities’ budget. Projections for 2021–23 are based on the new oil-price rule, with adjustments by IMF staff.
- Saudi Arabia: Staff baseline projections of total government revenues reflect the impact of announced policies in the 2018 Budget. Oil revenues are based on WEO baseline oil prices and the assumption that Saudi Arabia continues to meet its commitments under the OPEC+ agreement. Expenditure projections take the 2018 budget as a starting point and reflect IMF staff estimates of the effects of the latest changes in policies and economic developments. Expenditures in 2018 include the allowances and other measures announced in the Royal Decree for one year in January 2018.
- Spain: For 2017, fiscal data are IMF staff projections, reflecting the cash outturn through November. For 2018 and beyond, fiscal projections are based on the information specified in the government’s 2018 Budgetary Plan, and on the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections.
- Sweden: Fiscal projections take into account the authorities’ projections based on the 2018 Budget. The effect of cyclical developments on the fiscal accounts is calculated using the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s 2005 elasticity to take into account output and employment gaps.
- Thailand: For the projection period, the IMF staff assumes a relatively modest and temporary increase in public infrastructure investment, partly reflecting 50 percent implementation of planned infrastructure by SOEs and low implementation rates by the general government.
- Turkey: Fiscal projections for 2018 based on the authorities’ Medium-Term Plan (MTP) 2018–20, with adjustments for additionally announced fiscal measures and staff’s higher inflation forecast. For the medium term, projections assume a more gradual fiscal consolidation than envisaged in the MTP.
- United Kingdom: Fiscal projections based on the country’s November 2017 Budget and the March 2018 update, with expenditure projections based on the budgeted nominal values and with revenue projections adjusted for differences between the IMF staff’s forecasts of macroeconomic variables and the authorities’ fiscal projections. IMF staff’s data exclude public sector banks and the effect of transferring assets from the Royal Mail Pension Plan to the public sector in April 2012.
- United States: Fiscal projections based on the June 2017 Congressional Budget Office baseline, adjusted for the IMF staff’s policy and macroeconomic assumptions. Projections incorporate the effects of tax reform (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed into law end of 2017) as well as the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 passed in February.

### Data compilation, special cases, and country data challenges
- Tables specify coverage, accounting practice, and valuation for Overall Fiscal Balance, Cyclically Adjusted Balance, and Gross Debt; coverage codes include CG, GG, LG, NFPC, PS, SG, SS, TG, BCG, MPC, NMPC, NFPS, EA, FC, CPS.
- Definitions of debt valuation:
  - Nominal = debt securities are valued at their nominal values.
  - Face = undiscounted amount of principal to be repaid at (or before) maturity.
  - Current market = debt securities are valued at market prices; insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes are valued according to principles equivalent to market valuation; all other debt instruments are valued at nominal prices as proxies of market prices.
- Uruguay:
  - Data are for the consolidated public sector, which includes the nonfinancial public sector (as presented in the authorities’ budget documentation), local governments, Banco Central del Uruguay, and Banco de Seguros del Estado.
  - Uruguay is one of the few countries in the sample for which public debt includes the debt of the central bank, which increases recorded public sector gross debt.
- Venezuela: data challenges and treatment
  - Lack of discussions with the authorities (the last Article IV consultation took place in 2004).
  - Long intervals in receiving data with information gaps and incomplete provision of information.
  - Difficulties in interpreting certain reported economic indicators given economic developments, including hyperinflation.
  - The fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government and Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA).
  - Data for 2016–23 are IMF staff estimates.
  - Revenue includes the IMF staff’s estimate of foreign exchange profits transferred from the central bank to the government (buying US dollars at the most appreciated rate and selling at more depreciated rates in a multitier exchange rate system).
  - Revenue excludes the IMF staff’s estimate of revenue from PDVSA’s sale of PetroCaribe assets to the central bank.
  - The effects of hyperinflation and the noted data gaps mean that IMF staff’s projected macroeconomic indicators need to be interpreted with caution.
  - Example: nominal GDP is estimated assuming the GDP deflator rises in line with IMF staff’s projection of average inflation.
  - Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using IMF staff’s estimate of the average exchange rate for the year.
- Vietnam:
  - Fiscal data for 2015–17 are the authorities’ estimate.
  - From 2018 onward, fiscal data are based on IMF staff projections.
- Yemen:
  - Hydrocarbon revenue projections are based on World Economic Outlook assumptions for oil and gas prices (the authorities use $55 a barrel) and authorities’ projections of production of oil and gas.
  - Nonhydrocarbon revenues largely reflect authorities’ projections.
  - Most expenditure categories reflect authorities’ projections, except for fuel subsidies, which are projected based on the World Economic Outlook price consistent with revenues.
  - Monetary projections are based on key macroeconomic assumptions about the growth rate of broad money, credit to the private sector, and deposit growth.
- Other country-specific coverage notes:
  - Brazil: Gross debt refers to the nonfinancial public sector, excluding Eletrobras and Petrobras, and includes sovereign debt held on the balance sheet of the central bank.
  - South Africa: Coverage is a proxy for general government; includes national and provincial governments and certain public entities; local governments are only partly covered, through transfers to them.
  - Thailand: Data do not include the debt of specialized financial institutions (SFIs/NMPC) without government guarantee.
  - Several series are based on nominal GDP prior to revisions; consolidated definitions changed for some countries (e.g., Ecuador); net debt definitions vary by country (notes for Brazil, Norway, Ireland, Iceland, Portugal etc.).

### Key numerical findings from Appendix tables (selected series and aggregates)
- Advanced Economies — General Government Overall Balance, sample average (2009→2023): –8.7, –7.7, –6.3, –5.5, –3.7, –3.1, –2.6, –2.6, –2.6, –2.7, –2.8, –2.4, –2.3, –2.3, –2.0 (Percent of GDP by year 2009→2023).
- Advanced Economies — Primary Balance, sample average (2009→2023): –7.1, –6.0, –4.5, –3.7, –2.1, –1.5, –1.1, –1.2, –1.1, –1.2, –1.2, –0.8, –0.6, –0.4, –0.1.
- Advanced Economies — Cyclically Adjusted Balance, sample average (2009→2023): –5.9, –6.7, –5.6, –4.5, –3.2, –2.7, –2.5, –2.6, –2.6, –2.9, –3.3, –3.0, –2.8, –2.7, –2.3.
- Advanced Economies — Revenue, sample average (2009→2023): 35.0, 34.9, 35.5, 35.7, 36.9, 36.9, 36.5, 36.4, 36.3, 36.3, 36.1, 36.4, 36.5, 36.6, 36.7.
- Advanced Economies — Expenditure, sample average (2009→2023): 43.8, 42.6, 41.8, 41.1, 40.6, 40.1, 39.1, 39.1, 38.9, 39.0, 38.9, 38.9, 38.8, 38.8, 38.7.
- Advanced Economies — Gross Debt, sample average (2009→2023): 91.9, 98.4, 102.5, 106.7, 105.4, 104.8, 104.4, 106.9, 105.4, 103.9, 103.1, 102.4, 101.7, 101.2, 100.4.
- Advanced Economies — Net Debt, sample average (2009→2023): 64.2, 69.6, 74.0, 76.0, 75.8, 75.6, 75.7, 77.3, 76.3, 75.0, 74.5, 74.1, 73.7, 73.5, 73.0.
- Selected country examples (Advanced):
  - Japan overall balance (2009→2023): –10.2, –9.5, –9.4, –8.6, –7.9, –5.6, –3.8, –3.7, –4.2, –3.4, –2.8, –2.2, –2.1, –2.0, –2.0.
  - United States overall balance (2009→2023): –13.1, –10.9, –9.6, –7.9, –4.4, –4.0, –3.5, –4.2, –4.6, –5.3, –5.9, –5.5, –5.5, –5.4, –5.0.
  - Germany overall balance (2009→2023): –3.2, –4.2, –1.0, 0.0, –0.1, 0.3, 0.6, 0.8, 1.1, 1.5, 1.7, 1.6, 1.5, 1.5, 1.4.
  - Japan gross debt (2009→2023): 201.0, 207.9, 222.1, 229.0, 232.5, 236.1, 231.3, 235.6, 236.4, 236.0, 234.2, 232.3, 231.4, 230.7, 229.6.
  - United States gross debt (2009→2023): 87.0, 95.7, 100.0, 103.5, 105.4, 105.1, 105.3, 107.2, 107.8, 108.0, 109.4, 111.3, 113.1, 115.2, 116.9.
  - Norway revenue (2009→2023): 55.3, 54.9, 56.1, 55.7, 53.8, 53.6, 53.9, 53.9, 54.1, 51.7, 52.2, 52.9, 53.2, 53.5, 53.9.
- Emerging Market and Middle‑Income Economies — Overall Balance, sample average (2009→2023): –3.7, –2.2, –1.0, –1.0, –1.5, –2.4, –4.4, –4.8, –4.4, –4.2, –4.1, –4.0, –3.9, –3.9, –3.8.
- Emerging Market and Middle‑Income Economies — Primary Balance, sample average (2009→2023): –2.0, –0.4, 0.7, 0.6, 0.1, –0.8, –2.7, –3.0, –2.5, –2.2, –2.0, –1.9, –1.8, –1.7, –1.7.
- Emerging Markets — Revenue average (A13 2009→2023): 26.9, 27.5, 28.5, 29.4, 29.4, 28.5, 27.2, 26.9, 26.6, 26.9, 26.7, 26.5, 26.4, 26.3, 26.2.
- Emerging Markets — Expenditure average (A14 2009→2023): 30.6, 29.7, 29.8, 30.4, 30.4, 30.9, 31.6, 31.7, 31.1, 31.0, 30.8, 30.5, 30.4, 30.2, 30.0.
- Emerging Markets — Gross debt average (A15 2009→2023): 39.0, 38.3, 37.5, 37.5, 38.6, 40.7, 44.7, 49.0, 51.2, 52.9, 54.3, 54.3, 55.6, 56.7, 57.6.
- Selected emerging market examples:
  - China overall balance (2009→2023): –1.7, –0.4, –0.1, –0.3, –0.8, –0.9, –2.8, –3.7, –4.0, –4.1, –4.3, –4.3, –4.3, –4.4, –4.3.
  - Brazil overall balance (2009→2023): –3.2, –2.7, –2.5, –2.5, –3.0, –5.4, –10.3, –9.0, –7.8, –8.3, –8.3, –7.9, –7.6, –7.0, –6.6.
  - Brazil gross debt (2009→2023): 65.0, 63.1, 61.2, 62.2, 60.2, 62.3, 72.6, 78.4, 84.0, 87.3, 90.2, 92.7, 94.6, 95.7, 96.3.
- Low‑Income Developing Countries — Overall Balance, sample average (2009→2023): –3.9, –2.8, –0.9, –1.7, –3.3, –3.2, –4.0, –4.2, –4.3, –4.2, –4.0, –3.7, –3.6, –3.5, –3.4.
- Low‑Income Developing Countries — Revenue average (A19 2009→2023): 16.1, 17.4, 19.3, 18.3, 17.1, 16.8, 15.5, 15.1, 15.2, 15.7, 15.6, 15.5, 15.3, 15.2, 15.2.
- Low‑Income Developing Countries — Expenditure average (A20 2009→2023): 20.1, 20.2, 20.2, 20.0, 20.5, 20.0, 19.6, 19.3, 19.6, 20.0, 19.7, 19.3, 19.0, 18.8, 18.6.
- Low‑Income Developing Countries — Gross debt average (A21 2009→2023): 31.8, 30.3, 30.2, 31.1, 31.5, 31.8, 38.0, 40.8, 44.3, 45.5, 44.9, 44.1, 43.5, 42.8, 41.9.

### Structural fiscal indicators and long‑term pressures (selected metrics)
- Advanced Economies (Table A23) — sample averages and indicators:
  - Average projected pension spending change, 2015–30: 0.8 (percent of GDP).
  - Average net present value of pension spending change, 2015–50: 18.5 (percent of GDP).
  - Average health care spending change, 2015–30: 2.4 (percent of GDP).
  - Average net present value of health care spending change, 2015–50: 83.7 (percent of GDP).
  - Average gross financing need, 2018: 18.8 (percent of GDP).
  - Average projected interest rate–growth differential, 2018–23 (percent): –0.9.
  - Nonresident holding of general government debt (2017): Average 36.0 (percent of total).
  - Country specifics: Germany projected pension change 1.4; Japan pension change –1.2; Switzerland health care NPV 116.1.
- Emerging Markets (Table A24) — sample averages:
  - Average projected pension spending change, 2015–30: 1.7.
  - Average net present value of pension spending change, 2015–50: 61.7.
  - Average health care spending change, 2015–30: 0.7.
  - Average net present value of health care spending change, 2015–50: 29.1.
  - Average projected interest rate–growth differential, 2018–23: –3.9 (percent).
  - Precrisis overall balance (2000–07) average: –1.1; projected overall balance (2018–23) average: –4.0.
  - Nonresident holding of general government debt, 2017 average: 25.6 (percent of total).
  - Country specifics: Brazil projected pension NPV 203.8; India pension change 0.0.
- Low‑Income Developing Countries (Table A25) — sample averages:
  - Average projected pension spending change, 2015–30: 0.6.
  - Average net present value of pension spending change, 2015–50: 21.7.
  - Average health care spending change, 2015–30: 0.3.
  - Average net present value of health care spending change, 2015–50: 10.5.
  - Average projected interest rate–growth differential, 2018–23: –6.9 (percent).
  - Representative country examples: Bangladesh pension change 0.3, NPV 13.1, projected interest–growth differential –6.2; Kyrgyz Republic pension NPV 148.3, pension change 5.2.
  - Nonresident holdings data for many LICs not provided or not available.

### Key cross‑cutting findings from the appendix tables
- Across advanced economies, gross debt and net debt rose substantially after 2009 and remain elevated in projections through 2023 (Average gross debt ~100.4 percent of GDP in 2023; Table A7).
- Advanced‑economy average overall and primary balances show improvement from 2009 troughs but remain in modest deficit territory on average by 2023 (Average overall balance in 2023: –2.0 percent of GDP; Average primary balance in 2023: –0.1 percent of GDP).
- Emerging market and low‑income country groups show heterogeneous fiscal positions: many emerging markets run persistent deficits with rising gross debt trajectories in the 2010s; LICs show lower revenue and spending ratios and elevated volatility in balances and debt.
- Structural pressures from pension and health care spending are quantified via projected changes and net present values; these indicate long‑term fiscal burdens particularly on many advanced and emerging economies (see Tables A23–A25 for country‑level NPV and projected changes).

*International Monetary Fund | April 2018 — Methodological and Statistical Appendix (extract)*

### 0.0 percent of potential GDP for 2013. For cross-

### fmstatapp - 0.0 percent of potential GDP for 2013. For cross-

### Accounting adjustments and comparability
- Expenditure and fiscal balances of the United States are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditure under the 2008 SNA adopted by the United States, but this is not true for countries that have not yet adopted the 2008 SNA.
- Data for the United States may thus differ from data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- Gross and net debt levels reported by the BEA and national statistical agencies for other countries that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined‑benefit pension plans.

### Country-specific notes affecting fiscal aggregates
- Uruguay:
  - Data are for the consolidated public sector, which includes the nonfinancial public sector (as presented in the authorities’ budget documentation), local governments, Banco Central del Uruguay, and Banco de Seguros del Estado.
  - Uruguay is one of the few countries in the sample for which public debt includes the debt of the central bank, which increases recorded public sector gross debt.
- Venezuela:
  - Fiscal accounts for 2010–23 correspond to the budgetary central government and Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA).
  - Fiscal accounts before 2010 correspond to the budgetary central government, public enterprises (including PDVSA), Instituto Venezolano de los Seguros Sociales (IVSS—social security), and Fondo de Garantía de Depósitos y Protección Bancaria (FOGADE—deposit insurance).

### Fiscal policy assumptions and projection methodology
- Historical data and projections of key fiscal aggregates are in line with those of the April 2018 WEO, unless noted otherwise.
- Short-term fiscal policy assumptions:
  - Based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns.
- Medium-term fiscal projections:
  - Incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented.
  - When IMF staff has insufficient information to assess authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless indicated otherwise.

### Country-by-country bases for projections (selected excerpts)
- Argentina: Based on available information regarding budget outturn and budget plans for the federal and provincial governments, fiscal measures announced by the authorities, and on IMF staff macroeconomic projections.
- Australia: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the fiscal year 2017/18 budgets of the Commonwealth and States and Territories; the Commonwealth’s 2017 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook and Updates by States and Territories; and IMF staff estimates.
- Belgium: Based on the 2017–20 Stability Programme and other available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for the IMF staff’s assumptions.
- Brazil: Projections for the end of 2018 take into account budget performance through January, 2018, and the deficit target approved in the budget law.
- Canada: Use baseline forecasts in the 2018 federal budget and the latest provincial budget updates as available; IMF staff adjustments include differences in macroeconomic projections and incorporation of Statistics Canada releases through the fourth quarter of 2017.
- China: Assume that the pace of fiscal consolidation is likely to be gradual, reflecting reforms to strengthen social safety nets and the social security system announced as part of the Third Plenum reform agenda.
- France: Projections for 2017 reflect the budget law and cancelation of spending taken in July 2017. For 2018–22, based on the multiyear budget and the 2018 budget adjusted for differences in assumptions on macro and financial variables, and revenue projections.
- Germany: Projections for 2017 and beyond based on the 2018 Draft Budgetary Plan, adjusted for differences in the IMF staff’s macroeconomic framework and assumptions concerning revenue elasticities. The estimate of gross debt includes portfolios of impaired assets and noncore business transferred to institutions that are winding up, as well as other financial sector and EU support operations.
- Greece: Primary balance estimates for 2016 based on preliminary EDP data on an accrual basis (ESA 2010) provided by ELSTAT as of October 23, 2017. Fiscal data since 2010 are adjusted in line with program definition.
- India: Historical data based on budgetary execution data. Projections based on available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for IMF staff assumptions. Subnational data are incorporated with a lag of up to two years; general government data are thus finalized well after central government data. IMF and Indian presentations differ on divestment and license auction proceeds, net versus gross recording of revenues in certain minor categories, and some public sector lending.
- Ireland: Projections based on the country’s Budget 2018.
- Israel: Historical data based on Government Finance Statistics data prepared by the Central Bureau of Statistics. The central government deficit is assumed to remain at the current ceiling level of 2.9 percent of GDP throughout the projection period, rather than declining in line with medium-term fiscal targets.
- Japan: Projections include fiscal measures already announced by the government, including the consumption tax hike in October 2019.
- Netherlands: Projections for 2017–23 based on the authorities’ Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis budget projections, after differences in macroeconomic assumptions are adjusted for. Historical data were revised after the Central Bureau of Statistics released revised macro data in June 2014 after adopting the ESA 2010 and revising data sources.
- Philippines: Projections assume that the authorities’ fiscal deficit target for the national government will be achieved in 2018 and beyond. Revenue projections reflect IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and incorporate anticipated revenue-enhancing tax reforms. Expenditure projections are based on budgeted figures, institutional arrangements, current data, and fiscal space in each year.
- Portugal: Projections for the current year are based on the authorities’ approved budget, adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s macroeconomic forecast. Projections thereafter are based on the assumption of unchanged policies.
- Romania: Projections for 2018 reflect the adopted budget measures as of February 2018 (including increases in wages and pensions, and changes to labor taxation). Projections for 2019 reflect the full effect of the 2018 budget measures and the impact of the unified wage law. Apart from the impact of the unified wage law which will be gradually implemented until 2022, no additional policy changes are assumed beyond 2019.
- Russia: Projections for 2018-2020 are IMF staff estimates based on the authorities’ budget. Projections for 2021–23 are based on the new oil-price rule, with adjustments by IMF staff.
- Saudi Arabia: Staff baseline projections of total government revenues reflect the impact of announced policies in the 2018 Budget. Oil revenues are based on WEO baseline oil prices and the assumption that Saudi Arabia continues to meet its commitments under the OPEC+ agreement. Expenditure projections take the 2018 budget as a starting point and reflect IMF staff estimates of the effects of the latest changes in policies and economic developments. Expenditures in 2018 include the allowances and other measures announced in the Royal Decree for one year in January 2018.
- Spain: For 2017, fiscal data are IMF staff projections, reflecting the cash outturn through November. For 2018 and beyond, fiscal projections are based on the information specified in the government’s 2018 Budgetary Plan, and on the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections.
- Sweden: Fiscal projections take into account the authorities’ projections based on the 2018 Budget. The effect of cyclical developments on the fiscal accounts is calculated using the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s 2005 elasticity to take into account output and employment gaps.
- Thailand: For the projection period, the IMF staff assumes a relatively modest and temporary increase in public infrastructure investment, partly reflecting 50 percent implementation of planned infrastructure by SOEs and low implementation rates by the general government.
- Turkey: Fiscal projections for 2018 based on the authorities’ Medium-Term Plan (MTP) 2018–20, with adjustments for additionally announced fiscal measures and staff’s higher inflation forecast. For the medium term, projections assume a more gradual fiscal consolidation than envisaged in the MTP.
- United Kingdom: Fiscal projections based on the country’s November 2017 Budget and the March 2018 update, with expenditure projections based on the budgeted nominal values and with revenue projections adjusted for differences between the IMF staff’s forecasts of macroeconomic variables and the authorities’ fiscal projections. IMF staff’s data exclude public sector banks and the effect of transferring assets from the Royal Mail Pension Plan to the public sector in April 2012.
- United States: Fiscal projections based on the June 2017 Congressional Budget Office baseline, adjusted for the IMF staff’s policy and macroeconomic assumptions. Projections incorporate the effects of tax reform (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed into law end of 2017) as well as the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 passed in February.

*International Monetary Fund | April 2018 — Methodological and Statistical Appendix (extract)*

### 2018. Finally, fiscal projections are adjusted to reflect

### fmstatapp - 2018. Finally, fiscal projections are adjusted to reflect

### Data compilation, accounting standards, and projection adjustments
- Fiscal projections are adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s forecasts for key macroeconomic and financial variables and different accounting treatment of financial sector support and defined-benefit pension plans, and are converted to a general government basis.
- Data are compiled using SNA 2008, and when translated into government finance statistics, this is in accordance with GFSM 2014.
- Because of data limitations, most series begin in 2001.
- Nominal GDP is estimated assuming the GDP deflator rises in line with IMF staff’s projection of average inflation (statement repeated in the Venezuela note).
- Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using IMF staff’s estimate of the average exchange rate for the year (statement repeated in the Venezuela note).

### Venezuela: data challenges and treatment in fiscal accounts
- Data limitations and institutional constraints:
  - Lack of discussions with the authorities (the last Article IV consultation took place in 2004).
  - Long intervals in receiving data with information gaps and incomplete provision of information.
  - Difficulties in interpreting certain reported economic indicators given economic developments, including hyperinflation.
- Coverage and estimates:
  - The fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government and Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA).
  - Data for 2016–23 are IMF staff estimates.
- Revenue treatment:
  - Revenue includes the IMF staff’s estimate of foreign exchange profits transferred from the central bank to the government (buying US dollars at the most appreciated rate and selling at more depreciated rates in a multitier exchange rate system).
  - Revenue excludes the IMF staff’s estimate of revenue from PDVSA’s sale of PetroCaribe assets to the central bank.
- Caveats on projections:
  - The effects of hyperinflation and the noted data gaps mean that IMF staff’s projected macroeconomic indicators need to be interpreted with caution.
  - Example: nominal GDP is estimated assuming the GDP deflator rises in line with IMF staff’s projection of average inflation.
  - Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using IMF staff’s estimate of the average exchange rate for the year.

### Vietnam and Yemen: data sources and assumptions
- Vietnam:
  - Fiscal data for 2015–17 are the authorities’ estimate.
  - From 2018 onward, fiscal data are based on IMF staff projections.
- Yemen:
  - Hydrocarbon revenue projections are based on World Economic Outlook assumptions for oil and gas prices (the authorities use $55 a barrel) and authorities’ projections of production of oil and gas.
  - Nonhydrocarbon revenues largely reflect authorities’ projections.
  - Most expenditure categories reflect authorities’ projections, except for fuel subsidies, which are projected based on the World Economic Outlook price consistent with revenues.
  - Monetary projections are based on key macroeconomic assumptions about the growth rate of broad money, credit to the private sector, and deposit growth.

### Table and grouping conventions (overview of Appendix tables)
- Country groupings used in the Fiscal Monitor include:
  - Advanced Economies; Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies; Low-Income Developing Countries; Euro Area; Emerging Market and Middle-Income Asia; Emerging Market and Middle-Income Europe; Emerging Market and Middle-Income Latin America; Emerging Market and Middle-Income Middle East and North Africa and Pakistan; Emerging Market and Middle-Income Africa; Low-Income Developing Asia; Low-Income Developing Latin America; Low-Income Developing Sub-Saharan Africa; Low-Income Developing Others; Low-Income Oil Producers; Oil Producers.
- Tables specify coverage, accounting practice, and valuation for:
  - Overall Fiscal Balance, Cyclically Adjusted Balance, and Gross Debt.
  - Coverage codes: CG = central government; GG = general government; LG = local governments; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporations; PS = public sector; SG = state governments; SS = social security funds; TG = territorial governments; BCG = budgetary central government; MPC = monetary public corporations; NMPC = nonmonetary financial public corporations; NFPS = nonfinancial public sector; PS = public sector; BCG = budgetary central government; EA = extrabudgetary units; FC = financial public corporations; CPS = combined public sector.
  - Accounting practice codes: C = cash; A = accrual; NC = noncash; CB = commitments basis accounting; Mixed = combination of accrual and cash accounting; Other; Nominal/Face/Current market valuation distinctions.
- Selected specific table notes and country peculiarities (as stated in the appendix):
  - In many countries, fiscal data follow the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001.
  - The concept of overall fiscal balance refers to net lending (+) and borrowing (–) of the general government; in some cases it refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.
  - Definitions of debt valuation:
    - Nominal = debt securities are valued at their nominal values.
    - Face = undiscounted amount of principal to be repaid at (or before) maturity.
    - Current market = debt securities are valued at market prices; insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes are valued according to principles equivalent to market valuation; all other debt instruments are valued at nominal prices as proxies of market prices.
  - Country-specific coverage notes include:
    - Brazil: Gross debt refers to the nonfinancial public sector, excluding Eletrobras and Petrobras, and includes sovereign debt held on the balance sheet of the central bank.
    - South Africa: Coverage is a proxy for general government; includes national and provincial governments and certain public entities; local governments are only partly covered, through transfers to them.
    - Thailand: Data do not include the debt of specialized financial institutions (SFIs/NMPC) without government guarantee.
    - Venezuela: The fiscal accounts for 2010–22 correspond to the budgetary central government and Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), whereas the fiscal accounts for years before 2010 correspond to the budgetary central government, public enterprises (including PDVSA), Instituto Venezolano de los Seguros Sociales (IVSS—social security), and Fondo de Garantía de Depósitos y Protección Bancaria (FOGADE—deposit insurance).

*International Monetary Fund | April 2018*

### 2001. The concept of overall fiscal balance refers to net lending (+) and borrowing (–) of the general government. In so

### fmstatapp - 2001. The concept of overall fiscal balance refers to net lending (+) and borrowing (–) of the general government. In so

### Definitions and Methodological Notes
- Overall fiscal balance: net lending (+) and borrowing (–) of the general government. In some cases, overall balance = total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.
- Nominal valuation: debt securities valued at nominal values. Face value defined as undiscounted principal at maturity. Face as proxy for nominal not recommended unless nominal and market values unavailable.
- Current market valuation: debt securities valued at market prices; insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes valued per market-equivalent principles; all other debt instruments valued at nominal prices as best proxies of market prices.
- Country-specific notes excerpted:
  - Lao P.D.R.: fiscal spending includes capital spending by local governments financed by central bank loans.
  - Overall and primary balances in 2012 for an unspecified country are based on monetary statistics and differ from balances calculated from expenditure and revenue data.
  - Uzbekistan’s listing includes the Fund for Reconstruction and Development.
  - Data include financial sector support for select countries; Cyprus 2014–2015 balances exclude financial sector support.
  - US series adjusted to exclude imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and imputed compensation of employees for cross-country comparability.

### Advanced Economies: Overall and Primary Balances (Tables A1–A2)
- Table A1 (General Government Overall Balance, 2009–23): sample average and group aggregates:
  - Average (2009–23 row): –8.7, –7.7, –6.3, –5.5, –3.7, –3.1, –2.6, –2.6, –2.6, –2.7, –2.8, –2.4, –2.3, –2.3, –2.0 (Percent of GDP by year 2009→2023).
  - Euro Area (2009–23 row): –6.3, –6.2, –4.2, –3.6, –3.0, –2.6, –2.1, –1.5, –0.9, –0.6, –0.5, –0.2, –0.1, 0.0, 0.1.
  - G7 (2009–23 row): –9.9, –8.8, –7.4, –6.4, –4.3, –3.6, –3.0, –3.3, –3.4, –3.5, –3.7, –3.3, –3.2, –3.0, –2.7.
  - G20 Advanced (2009–23 row): –9.5, –8.4, –7.0, –6.0, –4.1, –3.4, –2.9, –3.1, –3.1, –3.2, –3.3, –2.9, –2.8, –2.7, –2.4.
- Table A2 (Primary Balance, 2009–23): sample average and group aggregates:
  - Average (2009–23 row): –7.1, –6.0, –4.5, –3.7, –2.1, –1.5, –1.1, –1.2, –1.1, –1.2, –1.2, –0.8, –0.6, –0.4, –0.1.
  - Euro Area (2009–23 row): –3.8, –3.7, –1.6, –1.0, –0.6, –0.2, 0.0, 0.4, 0.9, 1.1, 1.1, 1.4, 1.6, 1.7, 1.8.
  - G7 (2009–23 row): –8.0, –6.8, –5.2, –4.3, –2.4, –1.8, –1.3, –1.5, –1.6, –1.7, –1.8, –1.3, –1.0, –0.8, –0.4.
- Notable country-level entries (selected examples from Table A1):
  - Japan overall balance series (2009→2023): –10.2, –9.5, –9.4, –8.6, –7.9, –5.6, –3.8, –3.7, –4.2, –3.4, –2.8, –2.2, –2.1, –2.0, –2.0.
  - United States overall balance (2009→2023): –13.1, –10.9, –9.6, –7.9, –4.4, –4.0, –3.5, –4.2, –4.6, –5.3, –5.9, –5.5, –5.5, –5.4, –5.0.
  - Germany overall balance (2009→2023): –3.2, –4.2, –1.0, 0.0, –0.1, 0.3, 0.6, 0.8, 1.1, 1.5, 1.7, 1.6, 1.5, 1.5, 1.4.

### Advanced Economies: Cyclically Adjusted and Primary Cyclically Adjusted Balances (Tables A3–A4)
- Table A3 (Cyclically Adjusted Balance, percent of potential GDP) highlights:
  - Average (2009–23 row): –5.9, –6.7, –5.6, –4.5, –3.2, –2.7, –2.5, –2.6, –2.6, –2.9, –3.3, –3.0, –2.8, –2.7, –2.3.
  - United States (2009→2023): –7.7, –9.6, –8.2, –6.4, –4.4, –3.8, –3.6, –4.3, –4.6, –5.6, –6.8, –6.3, –6.2, –6.0, –5.3.
- Table A4 (Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance, percent of potential GDP) average (2009–23 row): –4.3, –5.1, –3.8, –2.7, –1.6, –1.2, –1.0, –1.1, –1.2, –1.5, –1.8, –1.3, –1.1, –0.8, –0.4.

### Advanced Economies: Revenue, Expenditure, Debt (Tables A5–A8)
- Table A5 (Revenue, percent of GDP): sample averages and country examples:
  - Average (2009–23 row): 35.0, 34.9, 35.5, 35.7, 36.9, 36.9, 36.5, 36.4, 36.3, 36.3, 36.1, 36.4, 36.5, 36.6, 36.7.
  - Norway revenue series includes high levels: 55.3, 54.9, 56.1, 55.7, 53.8, 53.6, 53.9, 53.9, 54.1, 51.7, 52.2, 52.9, 53.2, 53.5, 53.9.
  - United States revenue (2009→2023): 28.4, 29.1, 29.4, 29.4, 31.6, 31.5, 31.6, 31.2, 31.1, 30.7, 30.4, 30.8, 31.2, 31.6, 31.8.
- Table A6 (Expenditure, percent of GDP): sample averages:
  - Average (2009–23 row): 43.8, 42.6, 41.8, 41.1, 40.6, 40.1, 39.1, 39.1, 38.9, 39.0, 38.9, 38.9, 38.8, 38.8, 38.7.
  - United States expenditure (2009→2023): 41.6, 40.0, 38.9, 37.3, 36.0, 35.5, 35.2, 35.4, 35.7, 36.0, 36.3, 36.4, 36.7, 37.0, 36.8.
- Table A7 (Gross Debt, percent of GDP): notable aggregates and extremes:
  - Average (2009–23 row): 91.9, 98.4, 102.5, 106.7, 105.4, 104.8, 104.4, 106.9, 105.4, 103.9, 103.1, 102.4, 101.7, 101.2, 100.4.
  - Japan gross debt (2009→2023): 201.0, 207.9, 222.1, 229.0, 232.5, 236.1, 231.3, 235.6, 236.4, 236.0, 234.2, 232.3, 231.4, 230.7, 229.6.
  - United States gross debt (2009→2023): 87.0, 95.7, 100.0, 103.5, 105.4, 105.1, 105.3, 107.2, 107.8, 108.0, 109.4, 111.3, 113.1, 115.2, 116.9.
- Table A8 (Net Debt, percent of GDP): sample entries and notes:
  - Average (2009–23 row): 64.2, 69.6, 74.0, 76.0, 75.8, 75.6, 75.7, 77.3, 76.3, 75.0, 74.5, 74.1, 73.7, 73.5, 73.0.
  - Norway’s net debt series noted revisions and large negative net debt (i.e., large net assets): –43.8, –47.4, –48.3, –49.8, –61.2, –76.0, –86.7, –87.7, –90.5, –90.7, –92.1, –94.0, –96.3, –98.5, –101.0.
  - Notes: For countries that adopted the 2008 SNA, gross/net debt levels adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities for cross-country comparability (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong SAR, United States).

### Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies (Tables A9–A16)
- Table A9 (Overall Balance, 2009–23): aggregate averages and selected country trajectories:
  - Average (2009–23 row): –3.7, –2.2, –1.0, –1.0, –1.5, –2.4, –4.4, –4.8, –4.4, –4.2, –4.1, –4.0, –3.9, –3.9, –3.8.
  - China overall balance (2009→2023): –1.7, –0.4, –0.1, –0.3, –0.8, –0.9, –2.8, –3.7, –4.0, –4.1, –4.3, –4.3, –4.3, –4.4, –4.3.
  - Brazil overall balance (2009→2023): –3.2, –2.7, –2.5, –2.5, –3.0, –5.4, –10.3, –9.0, –7.8, –8.3, –8.3, –7.9, –7.6, –7.0, –6.6.
- Table A10 (Primary Balance, 2009–23): average and sample country values:
  - Average (2009–23 row): –2.0, –0.4, 0.7, 0.6, 0.1, –0.8, –2.7, –3.0, –2.5, –2.2, –2.0, –1.9, –1.8, –1.7, –1.7.
  - India primary balance (2009→2023): –5.0, –4.4, –4.0, –3.2, –2.4, –2.7, –2.5, –1.9, –2.1, –1.7, –1.8, –1.8, –1.7, –1.6, –1.6.
- Table A11 and A12 (Cyclically Adjusted balances): averages indicate persistent negative cyclically adjusted positions in many emerging markets; G20 Emerging (A12 average 2009–23 row) shows –1.5, –0.7, 0.1, –0.1, –0.5, –0.5, –1.9, –2.2, –2.1, –2.2, –2.2, –2.1, –2.1, –2.0, –1.9.
- Table A13–A14 (Revenue and Expenditure, 2009–23): aggregate averages:
  - Revenue average (A13 2009–23 row): 26.9, 27.5, 28.5, 29.4, 29.4, 28.5, 27.2, 26.9, 26.6, 26.9, 26.7, 26.5, 26.4, 26.3, 26.2.
  - Expenditure average (A14 2009–23 row): 30.6, 29.7, 29.8, 30.4, 30.4, 30.9, 31.6, 31.7, 31.1, 31.0, 30.8, 30.5, 30.4, 30.2, 30.0.
- Table A15–A16 (Gross and Net Debt, 2009–23): averages and notable entries:
  - Gross debt average (A15 2009–23 row): 39.0, 38.3, 37.5, 37.5, 38.6, 40.7, 44.7, 49.0, 51.2, 52.9, 54.3, 54.3, 55.6, 56.7, 57.6.
  - Selected country gross debt examples: Brazil (2009→2023 row in A15): 65.0, 63.1, 61.2, 62.2, 60.2, 62.3, 72.6, 78.4, 84.0, 87.3, 90.2, 92.7, 94.6, 95.7, 96.3.
  - Net debt averages (A16 2009–23 row): 26.0, 25.9, 23.9, 22.5, 21.6, 23.9, 28.4, 34.4, 35.9, 38.1, 39.5, 40.7, 41.7, 43.7, 43.0.
  - Data and notes: some series based on nominal GDP prior to revisions; consolidated definitions changed for some countries (e.g., Ecuador), and net debt definitions vary by country (notes for Brazil, Norway, Ireland, Iceland, Portugal etc.).

### Low-Income Developing Countries (Tables A17–A22)
- Table A17 (Overall Balance, 2009–23): averages and regional groupings:
  - Average (2009–23 row): –3.9, –2.8, –0.9, –1.7, –3.3, –3.2, –4.0, –4.2, –4.3, –4.2, –4.0, –3.7, –3.6, –3.5, –3.4.
  - Subgroups:
    - Oil Producers (A17): –4.5, –2.8, 0.7, 0.2, –2.5, –2.6, –4.2, –5.0, –5.5, –4.6, –4.3, –3.8, –3.9, –3.8, –3.8.
    - Sub-Saharan Africa (A17): –4.0, –3.6, –1.0, –1.3, –3.2, –3.4, –4.1, –4.5, –5.2, –4.3, –4.0, –3.7, –3.6, –3.4, –3.3.
- Table A18 (Primary Balance): average (2009–23 row) –3.0, –1.8, 0.1, –0.5, –2.0, –1.8, –2.5, –2.6, –2.7, –2.4, –2.2, –1.9, –1.8, –1.7, –1.6.
- Table A19–A20 (Revenue and Expenditure): averages:
  - Revenue average (A19 2009–23 row): 16.1, 17.4, 19.3, 18.3, 17.1, 16.8, 15.5, 15.1, 15.2, 15.7, 15.6, 15.5, 15.3, 15.2, 15.2.
  - Expenditure average (A20 2009–23 row): 20.1, 20.2, 20.2, 20.0, 20.5, 20.0, 19.6, 19.3, 19.6, 20.0, 19.7, 19.3, 19.0, 18.8, 18.6.
- Table A21–A22 (Gross and Net Debt for LICs): averages and notable country entries:
  - Gross debt average (A21 2009–23 row): 31.8, 30.3, 30.2, 31.1, 31.5, 31.8, 38.0, 40.8, 44.3, 45.5, 44.9, 44.1, 43.5, 42.8, 41.9.
  - Several LICs exhibit wide debt fluctuations and high levels in some years (e.g., Mozambique, Sudan, Timor-Leste). Net debt coverage incomplete for many LICs in the tables.

### Structural Fiscal Indicators and Long-Term Pressures (Tables A23–A25)
- Advanced Economies (Table A23) — selected indicators:
  - Average projected pension spending change, 2015–30: 0.8 (percent of GDP).
  - Average net present value of pension spending change, 2015–50: 18.5 (percent of GDP).
  - Average health care spending change, 2015–30: 2.4 (percent of GDP).
  - Average net present value of health care spending change, 2015–50: 83.7 (percent of GDP).
  - Average gross financing need, 2018: 18.8 (percent of GDP).
  - Average projected interest rate–growth differential, 2018–23 (percent): –0.9.
  - Notes: country-specific items such as large projected pension spending increases (e.g., Germany 1.4 pension change; Japan pension change –1.2) and large NPV health care figures (e.g., Switzerland 116.1).
  - Nonresident holding of general government debt (2017): Average 36.0 (percent of total).
- Emerging Markets (Table A24) — selected indicators and averages:
  - Average projected pension spending change, 2015–30: 1.7.
  - Average net present value of pension spending change, 2015–50: 61.7.
  - Average health care spending change, 2015–30: 0.7.
  - Average net present value of health care spending change, 2015–50: 29.1.
  - Average projected interest rate–growth differential, 2018–23: –3.9 (percent).
  - Precrisis overall balance (2000–07) average: –1.1; projected overall balance (2018–23) average: –4.0.
  - Nonresident holding of general government debt, 2017 average: 25.6 (percent of total).
  - Country examples: Brazil projected pension NPV 203.8; India pension change 0.0; Turkey average term to maturity note in footnote.
- Low-Income Developing Countries (Table A25) — selected indicators:
  - Average projected pension spending change, 2015–30: 0.6.
  - Average net present value of pension spending change, 2015–50: 21.7.
  - Average health care spending change, 2015–30: 0.3.
  - Average net present value of health care spending change, 2015–50: 10.5.
  - Average projected interest rate–growth differential, 2018–23: –6.9 (percent).
  - Representative country examples: Bangladesh pension change 0.3, NPV 13.1, projected interest–growth differential –6.2; Kyrgyz Republic pension NPV 148.3, pension change 5.2.
  - Nonresident holdings data for many LICs not provided or not available.

### Key Cross‑cutting Findings (from the tables)
- Across advanced economies, gross debt and net debt rose substantially after 2009 and remain elevated in projections through 2023 (Average gross debt ~100.4 percent of GDP in 2023; Table A7).
- Advanced-economy average overall and primary balances show improvement from 2009 troughs but remain in modest deficit territory on average by 2023 (Average overall balance in 2023: –2.0 percent of GDP; Average primary balance in 2023: –0.1 percent of GDP).
- Emerging market and low‑income country groups show heterogeneous fiscal positions: many emerging markets run persistent deficits with rising gross debt trajectories in the 2010s; LICs show lower revenue and spending ratios and elevated volatility in balances and debt.
- Structural pressures from pension and health care spending are quantified via projected changes and net present values; these place long-term fiscal burdens particularly on many advanced and emerging economies (see Tables A23–A25 for country-level NPV and projected changes).

*Source: IMF staff estimates and projections (methodological and statistical appendix tables A1–A25, Fiscal Monitor: Capitalizing on Good Times, April 2018).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2018/april/pdf/fmstatapp.pdf_