## msa - 2014. Most other countries follow the GFSM 2001,

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [msa - 2014. Most other countries follow the GFSM 2001,](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2020/october/english/msa.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2020/october/english/msa.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2020/october/english/msa.pdf.json)

---

### Methodological overview
- The overall fiscal balance refers to net lending (+) and borrowing (−) of the general government. In some cases, the overall balance refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.
- Fiscal gross and net debt data reported in the Fiscal Monitor are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates.
- Attempts are made to align gross and net debt data with the definitions in the GFSM, but data limitations or specific country circumstances can lead to deviations from formal definitions.
- Differences in both sectoral and instrument coverage mean that the debt data are not universally comparable.
- Changes in data sources or instrument coverage can give rise to data revisions that are sometimes substantial.
- As used in the Fiscal Monitor, the term “country” also covers some territorial entities that are not states but whose statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.

### Cross-country comparability adjustments
- For economies that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, United States), gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.
- Australia: adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.
- Canada: adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.
- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.
- United States: adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.

### Definitions and scope peculiarities
- China:
  - Public debt data include central government debt as reported by the Ministry of Finance, explicit local government debt, and shares—less than 25 percent, based on estimates from the National Audit Office estimate—of contingent liabilities the government may incur.
  - IMF staff estimates exclude central government debt issued for the China Railway Corporation.
  - Consolidated general government net borrowing includes (1) transfers to and from stabilization funds, (2) state-administered, state-owned enterprise funds and social security contributions and expenses, and (3) off-budget spending by local governments.
  - Deficit numbers do not include some expenditure items, mostly infrastructure investment financed off-budget through land sales and local government financing vehicles.
  - Fiscal balances are not consistent with reported debt, because no time series of data in line with the National Audit Office debt definition is published officially.
- Brazil:
  - General government data refer to the nonfinancial public sector (includes the federal, state, and local governments, as well as public enterprises (excluding Petrobras and Eletrobras)) and are consolidated with those for the sovereign wealth fund.
  - Revenue and expenditures of federal public enterprises are added in full to the respective aggregates.
  - Transfers and withdrawals from the sovereign wealth fund do not affect the primary balance.
  - Disaggregated data on gross interest payments and interest receipts are available only from 2003 onward. Before 2003, total revenue of the general government excludes interest receipts; total expenditure of the general government includes net interest payments.
  - Gross public debt includes the Treasury bills on the central bank’s balance sheet, including those not used under repurchase agreements.
  - Net public debt consolidates nonfinancial public sector and central bank debt.
  - The national definition of general government gross debt excludes government securities held by the central bank, except the stock of Treasury securities used for monetary policy purposes by the central bank (those pledged as security reverse repurchase agreement operations).
  - According to this national definition, gross debt amounted to 75.8 percent of GDP at the end of 2019.
- Japan: Gross debt is on an unconsolidated basis.
- Colombia: Gross public debt refers to the combined public sector, including Ecopetrol and excluding Banco de la República’s outstanding external debt.
- Dominican Republic: Public debt, debt service, and cyclically adjusted or structural balances are for the consolidated public sector (includes central government, rest of nonfinancial public sector, and central bank); remaining fiscal series are for the central government.
- Greece: General government gross debt includes short-term debt and loans of state-owned enterprises.
- Iceland: Gross debt excludes insurance technical reserves (including pension liabilities) and other accounts payable.
- Latvia: The fiscal deficit includes bank restructuring costs and thus is higher than the deficit in official statistics.
- Mexico: General government refers to the central government, social security funds, public enterprises, development banks, the national insurance corporation, and the National Infrastructure Fund, but excludes subnational governments.
- Norway: Cyclically adjusted balances correspond to the cyclically adjusted non-oil overall or primary balance; these variables are in percent of non-oil potential GDP.
- Spain: Overall and primary balances include financial sector support measures estimated to be:
  - 0.3 percent of GDP for 2011,
  - 3.7 percent of GDP for 2012,
  - 0.3 percent of GDP for 2013,
  - 0.1 percent of GDP for 2014,
  - 0.1 percent of GDP for 2015,
  - 0.2 percent of GDP for 2016.

### Fiscal year reporting and timing notes (countries reporting on a fiscal year basis)
- Bangladesh: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Egypt: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Ethiopia: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Haiti: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- India: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Iran, Islamic Republic of: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Myanmar: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Nepal: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Pakistan: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Singapore: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Thailand: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

### Cyclically adjusted / structural balance specifics
- Chile: Cyclically adjusted balances refer to the structural balance, which includes adjustments for output and commodity price developments.
- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for land revenue and investment income.
- Ireland:
  - General government balances between 2011 and 2012 reflect the impact of banking sector support.
  - Fiscal balance, estimates excluding these measures, are −8.6 percent of GDP for 2011, and −7.9 percent of GDP for 2012.
  - For 2015, if the conversion of the government’s remaining preference shares to ordinary shares in one bank is excluded, the fiscal balance is −1.1 percent of GDP.
  - Cyclically adjusted balances reported in Tables A3 and A4 exclude financial sector support measures.
  - Ireland’s 2015 national accounts were revised due to restructuring and relocation of multinational companies, resulting in a level shift of nominal and real GDP.
- Peru: Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for commodity price developments.
- Sweden: Cyclically adjusted balances take into account output and employment gaps.
- Switzerland:
  - Data submissions at the cantonal and commune levels are received with a long and variable lag and are subject to sizable revisions.
  - Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for extraordinary operations related to the banking sector.
- United States: Cyclically adjusted balances exclude financial sector support estimated at:
  - 0.2 percent of potential GDP for 2011,
  - 0.1 percent of potential GDP for 2012,
  - 0.0 percent of potential GDP for [text truncated in source].

### Projections and definitional differences
- Turkey: The fiscal projections assume a more negative primary and overall balance than envisaged in the authorities’ New Economic Program 2020–22 (October 2019), partly due to the deterioration in the growth outlook related to COVID-19, and partly due to definitional differences.
  - The basis for the projections in the World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor is the IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenue and expenditure items included in the authorities’ headline balance.

### msa - 2013. For cross-country comparability, expenditure

### Data adjustments and cross-country comparability
- For cross-country comparability, expenditure and fiscal balances of the United States are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditures under the 2008 SNA adopted by the United States, but not for countries that have not yet adopted the 2008 SNA. Data for the United States may thus differ from data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- Gross and net debt levels reported by the BEA and national statistical agencies for other economies that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.
- Note on sample coverage changes:
  - Uruguay: Data are for the nonfinancial public sector (NFPS), which includes the central government, the local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. The coverage of fiscal data was changed from the consolidated public sector to the NFPS with the October 2019 submission. Because of this narrower coverage, central bank balances are not included in the fiscal data.
  - Venezuela: Fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government; social security funds; FOGADE (insurance deposit institution); and a sample of public enterprises, including Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA). Data for 2018–19 are IMF staff estimates. The data for 2018–21 are IMF staff estimates; IMF staff note considerable uncertainty surrounds these projections (effects of hyperinflation and lack of reported data).

### Fiscal policy assumptions and projection conventions
- Historical data and projections of key fiscal aggregates are in line with those of the October 2020 World Economic Outlook, unless noted otherwise. For underlying assumptions other than on fiscal policy, see the October 2020 World Economic Outlook.
- Short-term fiscal policy assumptions:
  - Based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns.
- Medium-term fiscal projections:
  - Incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented.
  - When IMF staff have insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless indicated otherwise.
- United States: Fiscal projections are based on the January 2020 Congressional Budget Office baseline adjusted for IMF staff policy and macroeconomic assumptions. Projections incorporate the effects of the Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act; the Families First Coronavirus Response Act; and the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act. Finally, fiscal projections are adjusted to reflect IMF staff forecasts for key macroeconomic and financial variables and different accounting treatments of financial sector support and of defined-benefit pension plans and which are converted to a general government basis. Data are compiled using the 2008 System of National Accounts, and when translated into government financial statistics; this is in accordance with the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014. Because of data limitations, most series begin in 2001.
- Venezuela (projection caveat): Projecting the economic outlook in Venezuela is complicated by the lack of discussions with the authorities (the last Article IV consultation took place in 2004), incomplete understanding of the reported data, and difficulties in interpreting certain reported economic indicators given economic developments. The effects of hyperinflation and the lack of reported data mean that IMF staff-projected macroeconomic indicators should be interpreted with caution. For example, nominal GDP is estimated assuming that the GDP deflator rises in line with IMF staff projections of average inflation. Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using IMF staff estimates of the average exchange rate for the year.

### Country-specific bases for projections (selected excerpts)
- Argentina: Fiscal projections are based on the available information regarding budget outturn and budget plans for the federal and provincial governments, fiscal measures announced by the authorities, and the IMF staff projections.
- Australia: Fiscal projections are based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the fiscal year 2019/20 mid-year reviews of the Commonwealth and States, the Economic and Fiscal Outlook in July 2020, and IMF staff estimates and projections.
- Brazil: Fiscal projections for 2020 take into account the deficit target proposed in the budget guidance law and reflect policy announcements as of July 31, 2020. Those for the medium term assume compliance with the constitutional spending ceiling.
- China: A large fiscal expansion is estimated for 2020 based on budgeted and announced tax and expenditures measures to offset the health and economic repercussions of the COVID pandemic. For 2021, a mild expansion is projected given that the output gap is expected to remain relatively large.
- India: Historical data are based on budgetary execution data. Projections are based on available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for IMF staff assumptions. Subnational data are incorporated with a lag of up to one year; general government data are thus finalized well after central government data.
- Indonesia: Fiscal projections are consistent with a gradual unwinding of the large fiscal stimulus in 2020, including returning the fiscal deficit to below 3 percent of GDP by 2023.
- Spain: The 2020 fiscal projections include the discretionary measures adopted in response to the COVID-19 crisis, the legislated pension and public wage, and the minimum vital income support. Fiscal projections from 2021 onward assume an expiration of the temporary COVID-19 measures and no further policy change. Disbursement under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility are reflected in the projections for 2021–24.
- United Kingdom: Fiscal projections are based on the Budget Statement 2020 and revised estimates by the Office for Budget Responsibility. Projections assume that the measures taken in response to COVID-19 expire as announced, but also that there is some additional fiscal loosening relative to the Budget Statement 2020 over the next two years to support the economic recovery, and gradual consolidation begins thereafter with the goal of stabilizing public debt within five years. IMF staff data exclude public sector banks and the effect of transferring assets from the Royal Mail Pension Plan to the public sector in April 2012.
- Turkey: The basis for the projections in the World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor is the IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenues and expenditure items that are included in the authorities’ headline balance.

### Definition, coverage, and accounting practice highlights
- Table A (Economy Groupings) defines groupings used in the Fiscal Monitor (Advanced Economies; Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies; Low-Income Developing Countries; G7; G20; Euro Area; and regional subgroups).
- Table B (Advanced Economies: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data) and Table C (Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data) specify, by economy:
  - Coverage of overall fiscal balance (e.g., GG = general government; CG = central government; NFPS = nonfinancial public sector).
  - Accounting practice (A = accrual; C = cash; Mixed).
  - Coverage and valuation conventions for gross debt (Nominal, Face, Current market).
- Table notes emphasize:
  - Coverage definitions: CG = central government; GG = general government; LG = local governments; SG = state governments; SS = social security funds; TG = territorial governments; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporations; NMPC = nonmonetary financial public corporations; PS = public sector; BCG = budgetary central government; etc.
  - Accounting standard definitions: A = accrual; C = cash; Mixed = combination of accrual and cash accounting.
  - Valuation definitions: “Nominal” (valued at nominal values), “Face” (undiscounted principal), “Current market” (valued at market prices; insurance, pension, standardized guarantee schemes valued equivalently).

### Summary of selected quantitative tables and methodological notes (high-level)
- Tables A1–A4 present Advanced Economies’ general government balances (overall balance, primary balance, cyclically adjusted balance, cyclically adjusted primary balance) for 2011–25, in percent of GDP. The tables include country rows (e.g., Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, … United States) and aggregates (Average, Euro Area, G7, G20 Advanced).
- Tables A5–A8 present Advanced Economies’ general government revenue, expenditure, gross debt, and net debt, 2011–25 (percent of GDP). Key methodological note: For cross-economy comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for economies that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong SAR, United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.
- Tables A9–A16 present analogous fiscal series and definitions for Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies, including country-specific coverage notes (e.g., Brazil: NFPS; Ecuador: NFPS corrections; Uruguay: NFPS coverage change).
- Tables A17–A22 present fiscal series and debt measures for Low-Income Developing Countries (overall balance, primary balance, revenue, expenditure, gross debt, net debt).
- Tables A23–A25 present structural fiscal indicators for Advanced, Emerging, and Low-Income groups, including:
  - Pension Spending Change, 2019–30; Net Present Value of Pension Spending Change, 2019–50;
  - Health Care Spending Change, 2019–30; Net Present Value of Health Care Spending Change, 2019–50;
  - Gross Financing Need, 2020; Average Term to Maturity, 2020 (years); Debt to Average Maturity, 2020;
  - Projected Interest Rate–Growth Differential, 2020–25 (percent);
  - Pre-Pandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–25; Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2019 (percent of total).
- Methodological specifics:
  - Pension projections rely on authorities’ estimates when available; EU countries use The 2018 Ageing Report; otherwise IMF staff methodology per Clements, Eich, and Gupta (IMF 2014).
  - For net present value calculations, a discount rate of 1 percent a year in excess of GDP growth is used for each economy.
  - “Gross financing need” is defined as the projected overall deficit and maturing government debt in 2020.
  - Average-term-to-maturity data generally refer to central government securities (source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.).
  - Nonresident holding of general government debt data are from the Joint External Debt Hub, Quarterly External Debt Statistics (latest available 2019).

*Italic: Source — International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Monitor: Policies for the Recovery, Methodological and Statistical Appendix (October 2020).*

### 2014. Most other countries follow the GFSM 2001,

### msa - 2014. Most other countries follow the GFSM 2001,

### Methodological overview
- The overall fiscal balance refers to net lending (+) and borrowing (−) of the general government. In some cases, the overall balance refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.
- Fiscal gross and net debt data reported in the Fiscal Monitor are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates.
- Attempts are made to align gross and net debt data with the definitions in the GFSM, but data limitations or specific country circumstances can lead to deviations from formal definitions.
- Differences in both sectoral and instrument coverage mean that the debt data are not universally comparable.
- Changes in data sources or instrument coverage can give rise to data revisions that are sometimes substantial.
- As used in the Fiscal Monitor, the term “country” also covers some territorial entities that are not states but whose statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.

### Cross-country comparability adjustments
- For economies that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, United States), gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.
- Australia: adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.
- Canada: adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.
- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.
- United States: adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.

### Definitions and scope peculiarities
- China:
  - Public debt data include central government debt as reported by the Ministry of Finance, explicit local government debt, and shares—less than 25 percent, based on estimates from the National Audit Office estimate—of contingent liabilities the government may incur.
  - IMF staff estimates exclude central government debt issued for the China Railway Corporation.
  - Consolidated general government net borrowing includes (1) transfers to and from stabilization funds, (2) state-administered, state-owned enterprise funds and social security contributions and expenses, and (3) off-budget spending by local governments.
  - Deficit numbers do not include some expenditure items, mostly infrastructure investment financed off-budget through land sales and local government financing vehicles.
  - Fiscal balances are not consistent with reported debt, because no time series of data in line with the National Audit Office debt definition is published officially.
- Brazil:
  - General government data refer to the nonfinancial public sector (includes the federal, state, and local governments, as well as public enterprises (excluding Petrobras and Eletrobras)) and are consolidated with those for the sovereign wealth fund.
  - Revenue and expenditures of federal public enterprises are added in full to the respective aggregates.
  - Transfers and withdrawals from the sovereign wealth fund do not affect the primary balance.
  - Disaggregated data on gross interest payments and interest receipts are available only from 2003 onward. Before 2003, total revenue of the general government excludes interest receipts; total expenditure of the general government includes net interest payments.
  - Gross public debt includes the Treasury bills on the central bank’s balance sheet, including those not used under repurchase agreements.
  - Net public debt consolidates nonfinancial public sector and central bank debt.
  - The national definition of general government gross debt excludes government securities held by the central bank, except the stock of Treasury securities used for monetary policy purposes by the central bank (those pledged as security reverse repurchase agreement operations).
  - According to this national definition, gross debt amounted to 75.8 percent of GDP at the end of 2019.
- Japan: Gross debt is on an unconsolidated basis.
- Colombia: Gross public debt refers to the combined public sector, including Ecopetrol and excluding Banco de la República’s outstanding external debt.
- Dominican Republic: Public debt, debt service, and cyclically adjusted or structural balances are for the consolidated public sector (includes central government, rest of nonfinancial public sector, and central bank); remaining fiscal series are for the central government.
- Greece: General government gross debt includes short-term debt and loans of state-owned enterprises.
- Iceland: Gross debt excludes insurance technical reserves (including pension liabilities) and other accounts payable.
- Latvia: The fiscal deficit includes bank restructuring costs and thus is higher than the deficit in official statistics.
- Mexico: General government refers to the central government, social security funds, public enterprises, development banks, the national insurance corporation, and the National Infrastructure Fund, but excludes subnational governments.
- Norway: Cyclically adjusted balances correspond to the cyclically adjusted non-oil overall or primary balance; these variables are in percent of non-oil potential GDP.
- Spain: Overall and primary balances include financial sector support measures estimated to be:
  - 0.3 percent of GDP for 2011,
  - 3.7 percent of GDP for 2012,
  - 0.3 percent of GDP for 2013,
  - 0.1 percent of GDP for 2014,
  - 0.1 percent of GDP for 2015,
  - 0.2 percent of GDP for 2016.

### Fiscal year reporting and timing notes (countries reporting on a fiscal year basis)
- Bangladesh: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Egypt: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Ethiopia: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Haiti: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- India: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Iran, Islamic Republic of: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Myanmar: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Nepal: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Pakistan: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Singapore: Data are on a fiscal year basis.
- Thailand: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

### Cyclically adjusted / structural balance specifics
- Chile: Cyclically adjusted balances refer to the structural balance, which includes adjustments for output and commodity price developments.
- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for land revenue and investment income.
- Ireland:
  - General government balances between 2011 and 2012 reflect the impact of banking sector support.
  - Fiscal balance, estimates excluding these measures, are −8.6 percent of GDP for 2011, and −7.9 percent of GDP for 2012.
  - For 2015, if the conversion of the government’s remaining preference shares to ordinary shares in one bank is excluded, the fiscal balance is −1.1 percent of GDP.
  - Cyclically adjusted balances reported in Tables A3 and A4 exclude financial sector support measures.
  - Ireland’s 2015 national accounts were revised due to restructuring and relocation of multinational companies, resulting in a level shift of nominal and real GDP.
- Peru: Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for commodity price developments.
- Sweden: Cyclically adjusted balances take into account output and employment gaps.
- Switzerland:
  - Data submissions at the cantonal and commune levels are received with a long and variable lag and are subject to sizable revisions.
  - Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for extraordinary operations related to the banking sector.
- United States: Cyclically adjusted balances exclude financial sector support estimated at:
  - 0.2 percent of potential GDP for 2011,
  - 0.1 percent of potential GDP for 2012,
  - 0.0 percent of potential GDP for [text truncated in source].

### Projections and definitional differences
- Turkey: The fiscal projections assume a more negative primary and overall balance than envisaged in the authorities’ New Economic Program 2020–22 (October 2019), partly due to the deterioration in the growth outlook related to COVID-19, and partly due to definitional differences.
  - The basis for the projections in the World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor is the IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenue and expenditure items included in the authorities’ headline balance.

*International Monetary Fund | October 2020*

### 2013. For cross-country comparability, expenditure

### msa - 2013. For cross-country comparability, expenditure

### Data adjustments and cross-country comparability
- For cross-country comparability, expenditure and fiscal balances of the United States are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditures under the 2008 SNA adopted by the United States, but not for countries that have not yet adopted the 2008 SNA. Data for the United States may thus differ from data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- Gross and net debt levels reported by the BEA and national statistical agencies for other economies that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.
- Note on sample coverage changes:
  - Uruguay: Data are for the nonfinancial public sector (NFPS), which includes the central government, the local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. The coverage of fiscal data was changed from the consolidated public sector to the NFPS with the October 2019 submission. Because of this narrower coverage, central bank balances are not included in the fiscal data.
  - Venezuela: Fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government; social security funds; FOGADE (insurance deposit institution); and a sample of public enterprises, including Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA). Data for 2018–19 are IMF staff estimates. The data for 2018–21 are IMF staff estimates; IMF staff note considerable uncertainty surrounds these projections (effects of hyperinflation and lack of reported data).

### Fiscal policy assumptions and projection conventions
- Historical data and projections of key fiscal aggregates are in line with those of the October 2020 World Economic Outlook, unless noted otherwise. For underlying assumptions other than on fiscal policy, see the October 2020 World Economic Outlook.
- Short-term fiscal policy assumptions:
  - Based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns.
- Medium-term fiscal projections:
  - Incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented.
  - When IMF staff have insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless indicated otherwise.
- United States: Fiscal projections are based on the January 2020 Congressional Budget Office baseline adjusted for IMF staff policy and macroeconomic assumptions. Projections incorporate the effects of the Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act; the Families First Coronavirus Response Act; and the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act. Finally, fiscal projections are adjusted to reflect IMF staff forecasts for key macroeconomic and financial variables and different accounting treatments of financial sector support and of defined-benefit pension plans and which are converted to a general government basis. Data are compiled using the 2008 System of National Accounts, and when translated into government financial statistics; this is in accordance with the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014. Because of data limitations, most series begin in 2001.
- Venezuela (projection caveat): Projecting the economic outlook in Venezuela is complicated by the lack of discussions with the authorities (the last Article IV consultation took place in 2004), incomplete understanding of the reported data, and difficulties in interpreting certain reported economic indicators given economic developments. The effects of hyperinflation and the lack of reported data mean that IMF staff-projected macroeconomic indicators should be interpreted with caution. For example, nominal GDP is estimated assuming that the GDP deflator rises in line with IMF staff projections of average inflation. Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using IMF staff estimates of the average exchange rate for the year.

### Country-specific bases for projections (selected excerpts)
- Argentina: Fiscal projections are based on the available information regarding budget outturn and budget plans for the federal and provincial governments, fiscal measures announced by the authorities, and the IMF staff projections.
- Australia: Fiscal projections are based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the fiscal year 2019/20 mid-year reviews of the Commonwealth and States, the Economic and Fiscal Outlook in July 2020, and IMF staff estimates and projections.
- Brazil: Fiscal projections for 2020 take into account the deficit target proposed in the budget guidance law and reflect policy announcements as of July 31, 2020. Those for the medium term assume compliance with the constitutional spending ceiling.
- China: A large fiscal expansion is estimated for 2020 based on budgeted and announced tax and expenditures measures to offset the health and economic repercussions of the COVID pandemic. For 2021, a mild expansion is projected given that the output gap is expected to remain relatively large.
- India: Historical data are based on budgetary execution data. Projections are based on available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for IMF staff assumptions. Subnational data are incorporated with a lag of up to one year; general government data are thus finalized well after central government data.
- Indonesia: Fiscal projections are consistent with a gradual unwinding of the large fiscal stimulus in 2020, including returning the fiscal deficit to below 3 percent of GDP by 2023.
- Spain: The 2020 fiscal projections include the discretionary measures adopted in response to the COVID-19 crisis, the legislated pension and public wage, and the minimum vital income support. Fiscal projections from 2021 onward assume an expiration of the temporary COVID-19 measures and no further policy change. Disbursement under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility are reflected in the projections for 2021–24.
- United Kingdom: Fiscal projections are based on the Budget Statement 2020 and revised estimates by the Office for Budget Responsibility. Projections assume that the measures taken in response to COVID-19 expire as announced, but also that there is some additional fiscal loosening relative to the Budget Statement 2020 over the next two years to support the economic recovery, and gradual consolidation begins thereafter with the goal of stabilizing public debt within five years. IMF staff data exclude public sector banks and the effect of transferring assets from the Royal Mail Pension Plan to the public sector in April 2012.
- Turkey: The basis for the projections in the World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor is the IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenues and expenditure items that are included in the authorities’ headline balance.

### Definition, coverage, and accounting practice highlights
- Table A (Economy Groupings) defines groupings used in the Fiscal Monitor (Advanced Economies; Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies; Low-Income Developing Countries; G7; G20; Euro Area; and regional subgroups).
- Table B (Advanced Economies: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data) and Table C (Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data) specify, by economy:
  - Coverage of overall fiscal balance (e.g., GG = general government; CG = central government; NFPS = nonfinancial public sector).
  - Accounting practice (A = accrual; C = cash; Mixed).
  - Coverage and valuation conventions for gross debt (Nominal, Face, Current market).
- Table notes emphasize:
  - Coverage definitions: CG = central government; GG = general government; LG = local governments; SG = state governments; SS = social security funds; TG = territorial governments; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporations; NMPC = nonmonetary financial public corporations; PS = public sector; BCG = budgetary central government; etc.
  - Accounting standard definitions: A = accrual; C = cash; Mixed = combination of accrual and cash accounting.
  - Valuation definitions: “Nominal” (valued at nominal values), “Face” (undiscounted principal), “Current market” (valued at market prices; insurance, pension, standardized guarantee schemes valued equivalently).

### Summary of selected quantitative tables and methodological notes (high-level)
- Tables A1–A4 present Advanced Economies’ general government balances (overall balance, primary balance, cyclically adjusted balance, cyclically adjusted primary balance) for 2011–25, in percent of GDP. The tables include country rows (e.g., Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, … United States) and aggregates (Average, Euro Area, G7, G20 Advanced).
- Tables A5–A8 present Advanced Economies’ general government revenue, expenditure, gross debt, and net debt, 2011–25 (percent of GDP). Key methodological note: For cross-economy comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for economies that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong SAR, United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.
- Tables A9–A16 present analogous fiscal series and definitions for Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies, including country-specific coverage notes (e.g., Brazil: NFPS; Ecuador: NFPS corrections; Uruguay: NFPS coverage change).
- Tables A17–A22 present fiscal series and debt measures for Low-Income Developing Countries (overall balance, primary balance, revenue, expenditure, gross debt, net debt).
- Tables A23–A25 present structural fiscal indicators for Advanced, Emerging, and Low-Income groups, including:
  - Pension Spending Change, 2019–30; Net Present Value of Pension Spending Change, 2019–50;
  - Health Care Spending Change, 2019–30; Net Present Value of Health Care Spending Change, 2019–50;
  - Gross Financing Need, 2020; Average Term to Maturity, 2020 (years); Debt to Average Maturity, 2020;
  - Projected Interest Rate–Growth Differential, 2020–25 (percent);
  - Pre-Pandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–25; Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2019 (percent of total).
- Methodological specifics:
  - Pension projections rely on authorities’ estimates when available; EU countries use The 2018 Ageing Report; otherwise IMF staff methodology per Clements, Eich, and Gupta (IMF 2014).
  - For net present value calculations, a discount rate of 1 percent a year in excess of GDP growth is used for each economy.
  - “Gross financing need” is defined as the projected overall deficit and maturing government debt in 2020.
  - Average-term-to-maturity data generally refer to central government securities (source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.).
  - Nonresident holding of general government debt data are from the Joint External Debt Hub, Quarterly External Debt Statistics (latest available 2019).

*Italic: Source — International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Monitor: Policies for the Recovery, Methodological and Statistical Appendix (October 2020).*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2020/october/english/msa.pdf_