## msa ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [msa](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2021/october/english/msa.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2021/october/english/msa.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2021/october/english/msa.pdf.json) --- ### Fiscal data frameworks and definitions - Most countries follow the GFSM 2001; some countries, including a significant proportion of low-income developing countries, have fiscal data based on the 1986 GFSM. - The overall fiscal balance refers to net lending and borrowing of the general government. In some cases, however, the overall balance refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending. - The fiscal gross and net debt data reported in the Fiscal Monitor are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates. - Attempts are made to align gross and net debt data with the definitions in the GFSM, but data limitations or specific country circumstances can cause deviations from the formal definitions. - Differences in both sectoral and instrument coverage mean that debt data are not universally comparable. - As more information becomes available, changes in either data sources or instrument coverage can give rise to data revisions that are sometimes substantial. ### Data update frequency and country coverage conventions - The data for the pension and health spending from Tables A23–A25 are updated once per year in the April edition of the Fiscal Monitor. - As used in the Fiscal Monitor, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice; it also covers some territorial entities that are not states but whose statistical data are maintained separately and independently. - For cross-economy comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for economies that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, United States) are adjusted to exclude the unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans. ### Country-specific methodological and coverage notes (selected) - Australia: Gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans. - Bangladesh: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Brazil: - General government data refer to the non-financial public sector—which includes the federal, state, and local governments, as well as public enterprises (excluding Petrobras and Eletrobras)—and are consolidated with those for the sovereign wealth fund. - Revenue and expenditures of federal public enterprises are added in full to the respective aggregates. - Transfers and withdrawals from the sovereign wealth fund do not affect the primary balance. - Disaggregated data on gross interest payments and interest receipts are available only from 2003 onward. Before 2003, total revenue of the general government excludes interest receipts; total expenditure of the general government includes net interest payments. - Gross public debt includes the Treasury bills on the central bank’s balance sheet, including those not used under repurchase agreements. - Net public debt consolidates nonfinancial public sector and central bank debt. - The national definition of general government gross debt excludes government securities held by the central bank, except the stock of Treasury securities used for monetary policy by the central bank (those pledged as security reverse repurchase agreement operations). - According to this national definition, gross debt amounted to 88.8 percent of GDP at the end of 2020. - Canada: For cross-economy comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans. - Chile: Cyclically adjusted balances refer to the structural balance, which includes adjustments for output and commodity price developments. - China: - Public debt data include central government debt as reported by the Ministry of Finance, explicit local government debt, and shares of contingent liabilities the government may incur, based on estimates from the National Audit Office estimate. - IMF staff estimates exclude central government debt issued for the China Railway Corporation. - Relative to the authorities’ definition, consolidated general government net borrowing excludes transfers to and from stabilization funds, but includes (1) state-administered funds, state-owned enterprise funds, and social security contributions and expenses; and (2) some off-budget spending by local governments. - Deficit numbers do not include some expenditure items, mostly infrastructure investment financed off budget through land sales and local government financing vehicles. - Fiscal balances are not consistent with reported debt, because no time series of data in line with the National Audit Office debt definition is published officially. - Colombia: Gross public debt refers to the combined public sector, including Ecopetrol and excluding Banco de la República’s outstanding external debt. - Dominican Republic: Public debt, debt service, and cyclically adjusted or structural balances are for the consolidated public sector (which includes the central government, the rest of the nonfinancial public sector, and the central bank); remaining fiscal series are for the central government. - Egypt: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Ethiopia: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Greece: General government gross debt follows the GFSM definition, and includes the stock of deferred interest. - Haiti: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: - Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for land revenue and investment income. - For cross-economy comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for countries that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, United States) are adjusted to exclude the unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans. - Iceland: Gross debt excludes insurance technical reserves (including pension liabilities) and other accounts payable. - India: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Iran, Islamic Republic of: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Ireland: - General government balances for 2012 reflect the impact of banking sector support. Fiscal balance estimates, excluding these measures, are −7.9 percent of GDP for 2012. - For 2015, if the conversion of the government’s remaining preference shares to ordinary shares in one bank is excluded, the fiscal balance is −1.1 percent of GDP. - Cyclically adjusted balances reported in Appendix Tables A3 and A4 exclude financial sector support measures. - Ireland’s 2015 national accounts were revised as a result of restructuring and relocation of multinational companies, which resulted in a level shift of nominal and real GDP. - Japan: Gross debt is on an unconsolidated basis. - Latvia: The fiscal deficit includes bank restructuring costs and thus is higher than the deficit in official statistics. - Mexico: General government refers to the central government, social security funds, public enterprises, development banks, the national insurance corporation, and the National Infrastructure Fund, but excludes subnational governments. - Myanmar: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Nepal: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Norway: Cyclically adjusted balances correspond to the cyclically adjusted non-oil overall or primary balance. These variables are in percent of non-oil potential GDP. - Pakistan: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Peru: Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for commodity price developments. - Singapore: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Spain: Overall and primary balances include financial sector support measures estimated to be 3.7 percent of GDP for 2012, 0.3 percent of GDP for 2013. ### Data and accounting conventions (selected) - Spain: The reclassification of Spain’s Asset Management Company SAREB into the general government increased the deficit by €9.9 billion in 2020. - Sweden: Cyclically adjusted balances account for output and employment gaps; the fiscal impact of cyclical developments is calculated using the 2014 OECD elasticity, which incorporates output and employment gaps. - Switzerland: Data submissions at the cantonal and commune levels are received with a long and variable lag and are subject to sizable revisions. Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for extraordinary operations related to the banking sector. - Thailand: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Turkey: Fiscal projections assume a more negative primary and overall balance than envisaged in the authorities’ New Economic Program 2021–23 (September 2020) partly from deterioration in the growth outlook related to the COVID-19 pandemic and partly from definitional differences. The basis for the projections in the World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor is the IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenue and expenditure items included in the authorities’ headline balance. - United States: - Cyclically adjusted balances exclude financial sector support estimated at 0.1 percent of potential GDP for 2012, and 0.0 percent of potential GDP for 2013. - For cross-economy comparability, expenditures and fiscal balances are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditures under the 2008 SNA adopted by the United States, but not for countries that have not yet adopted the 2008 SNA. - Data for the United States may thus differ from data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Gross and net debt levels reported by the BEA and national statistical agencies for other economies that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region) are adjusted to exclude the unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans. - Uruguay: Data are for the nonfinancial public sector (central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado). The coverage of fiscal data was changed from the consolidated public sector to the nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 submission; central bank balances are not included in the fiscal data because of this narrower coverage. - Venezuela: Fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government; social security funds, FOGADE (insurance deposit institution), and a sample of public enterprises, including Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA). Data for 2018–19 are IMF staff estimates. ### Fiscal policy assumptions and projection basis - Alignment: Historical data and projections of key fiscal aggregates are in line with those of the October 2021 World Economic Outlook unless noted otherwise. - Short-term assumptions: Based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between national authorities and IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. - Medium-term assumptions: Incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented. - When IMF staff lacks sufficient information to assess authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed unless indicated otherwise. - Country-specific adjustments and bases (selected examples): - Afghanistan: All projections for 2021–26 are omitted because of an unusually high degree of uncertainty. - Argentina: Fiscal variables are excluded from publication for 2021–26 as these are to a large extent linked to still-pending program negotiations. - Australia: Projections based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, fiscal year 2021/22 Commonwealth budget, subnational budgets (as of September 10), and IMF staff estimates and projections. - Austria: Projections based on the revised 2021 budget, the Austria Stability Programme, and the Austria National Reform Programme 2021; new EU recovery funds incorporated. - Belgium: Projections based on the 2021–22 Stability Programme, Draft Budgetary Plan 2020, the 2021 budget, and other available information, with IMF staff adjustments. - Brazil: Projections for 2021 reflect policy announcements as of May 31, 2021; medium-term projections reflect full compliance with Brazil’s constitutional expenditure ceiling. - Canada: Projections use baseline forecasts from the Federal Budget 2021 and the latest provincial budgets, with IMF staff adjustments and incorporation of recent Statistics Canada releases. - China: After a large fiscal expansion estimated for 2020, a significant tightening is projected for 2021 based on the 2021 government budget and fiscal outturn to date. - India: Historical data based on budgetary execution data; projections based on authorities’ fiscal plans with IMF staff adjustments and noted differences (disinvestment, license-auction proceeds, net vs. gross recording in minor categories). Starting fiscal year 2020/21, expenditure includes off-budget component of food subsidies; IMF staff adjusts expenditure to remove payments for previous years’ food subsidies included in budget estimates for fiscal years 2020/21 and 2021/22. - Spain: Fiscal projections for 2021 include COVID-19–related support measures, legislated increase in pensions, legislated revenue measures; from 2022 onward projections assume no policy changes. Disbursements under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility are reflected for 2021–24. - Sweden: Projections for 2020 are based on preliminary information on the Fall 2020 budget bill; fiscal impact of cyclical developments uses the 2014 OECD elasticity incorporating output and employment gaps. - Switzerland: Authorities’ announced discretionary stimulus is reflected for 2020 and 2021 and is permitted under the debt brake rule in the event of “exceptional circumstances.” - Turkey: The IMF-defined fiscal balance basis excludes some revenues and expenditure items included in the authorities’ headline balance. - United Kingdom: Projections based on GDP data published June 30, 2021, and OBR forecasts from March 3, 2021; revenue projections adjusted for differences in macro forecasts; assume COVID-19 measures expire as announced and additional fiscal consolidation begins in fiscal year 2023/24 to stabilize public debt within five years. - United States: Projections based on the July 2021 Congressional Budget Office baseline adjusted for IMF staff policy and macro assumptions; incorporate effects of proposed American Jobs, American Families, and Bipartisan Infrastructure Plans; legislated American Rescue Plan; and other pandemic-related legislation and programs. Data compiled using the 2008 SNA and converted to a general government basis; most series begin in 2001. ### Tables and key statistics (selected highlights preserved exactly as in source) - Advanced Economies: General Government Overall Balance, 2012–26 (Percent of GDP) — Average series start: –5.5–3.7–3.1–2.6–2.7–2.4–2.5–3.0–10.8–8.8–4.8–3.6–3.2–3.1–3.0. - Spain: General Government Overall Balance, 2012–26 (Percent of GDP) — –10.7–7.0–5.9–5.2–4.3–3.0–2.5–2.9–11.0–8.6–5.0–4.4–4.2–4.2–4.3. - United States: General Government Overall Balance, 2012–26 (Percent of GDP) — –8.0–4.5–4.0–3.5–4.3–4.6–5.4–5.7–14.9–10.8–6.9–5.7–5.2–5.3–5.3. - Advanced Economies: General Government Gross Debt, 2012–26 (Percent of GDP) — Average series start: 105.5 104.0 103.6 103.1 105.6 103.2 102.7 103.8 122.7 121.6 119.3 119.3 119.1 118.8 118.6. - United States: General Government Gross Debt, 2012–26 (Percent of GDP) — 103.0 104.5 104.5 104.9 106.9 106.0 107.1 108.5 133.9 133.3 130.7 131.1 131.7 132.5 133.5. - Advanced Economies: General Government Revenue, 2012–26 (Percent of GDP) — Average series: 35.3 36.5 36.5 36.1 36.0 35.9 35.9 35.7 35.9 36.0 36.5 36.6 36.5 36.4 36.4. - Advanced Economies: General Government Expenditure, 2012–26 (Percent of GDP) — Average series: 40.7 40.2 39.6 38.7 38.7 38.3 38.4 38.6 46.7 44.8 41.3 40.2 39.7 39.5 39.4. - Advanced Economies: General Government Net Debt, 2012–26 (Percent of GDP) — Average series: 76.1 75.0 75.2 75.2 76.9 75.1 74.8 75.1 88.1 89.8 88.7 89.2 89.5 90.3 91.0. ### Cyclically adjusted primary balance — Emerging Market and Middle‑Income Economies (Table A12) - Definition note: “Cyclically adjusted primary balance” is defined as the cyclically adjusted balance plus net interest payable/paid (interest expense minus interest revenue) following the World Economic Outlook convention. - Average (percent of potential GDP), 2012–26: - Average series: –0.1, –0.1, –0.1, –0.3, –0.3, –0.3, –0.3, –0.5, –1.1, –0.8, –0.8, –0.7, –0.6, –0.6, –0.5 (2012 through 2026). - Regional series (percent of potential GDP), 2012–26: - Asia: –0.4, –0.6, –0.6, –1.8, –2.4, –2.3, –3.0, –4.2, –7.2, –5.5, –4.9, –4.3, –3.9, –3.5, –3.0. - Europe: 0.2, –0.7, 0.1, –1.0, –1.1, –0.5, 1.0, 0.0, –3.8, –1.8, –1.1, –0.8, –0.8, –0.9, –0.9. - Latin America: 0.0, –0.5, –1.8, –2.0, –1.6, –1.0, –0.6, 0.1, –3.8, –2.1, –0.9, –0.3, 0.2, 0.6, 0.9. - MENA: 0.0 repeated for 2012–2026 in the table. - G20 Emerging: –0.2, –0.7, –0.8, –2.0, –2.4, –2.0, –2.2, –3.2, –6.7, –4.5, –4.1, –3.6, –3.2, –2.8, –2.4. - Selected country highlights (cyclically adjusted primary balance, percent of potential GDP, 2012…2026; series shown as in table): - Brazil: 0.9, 0.3, –2.1, –2.0, –1.4, –0.9, –1.1, –0.5, –8.0, –1.3, –0.5, –0.2, 0.3, 0.7, 1.2. - Chile: –0.3, –0.4, –0.4, 0.7, –0.7, –1.6, –1.1, –1.3, –2.0, –10.3, –3.4, –2.3, –1.2, –0.1, –0.1. - China: 0.1, –0.4, –0.4, –2.0, –2.7, –2.9, –3.7, –5.1, –8.6, –6.0, –5.5, –5.0, –4.6, –4.0, –3.5. - India: –3.0, –2.1, –2.3, –2.5, –2.7, –1.4, –2.0, –2.7, –4.0, –4.1, –3.7, –3.1, –2.7, –2.4, –2.2. - Egypt: –4.9, –6.1, –4.5, –4.6, –3.9, –2.7, –0.5, 1.6, 2.1, 1.1, 1.5, 1.9, 1.9, 1.9, 1.7. - Peru: 2.2, 1.1, 0.8, –0.6, –0.9, –1.1, –0.5, 0.6, –4.7, –3.8, –2.6, –2.7, –2.6, –2.8, –2.8. - Russia: 0.3, –1.2, 0.3, –2.8, –2.8, –0.5, 3.4, 2.3, –4.2, 0.0, 0.5, 0.7, 0.5, 0.1, –0.2. - Romania: 0.4, 0.0, 0.5, 0.7, –0.7, –2.3, –2.3, –4.4, –7.4, –4.9, –4.0, –3.9, –3.8, –3.5, –3.2. - Table source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies. ### General government revenue — Emerging Market and Middle‑Income Economies (Table A13) - Coverage: General government revenue (Percent of GDP), 2012–26. - Average (percent of GDP), 2012–26: - Average series: 29.4, 29.0, 28.4, 27.2, 26.6, 26.7, 27.5, 27.0, 25.1, 25.5, 25.6, 25.6, 25.9, 26.1, 26.3 (2012 through 2026). - Regional series (percent of GDP), 2012–26: - Asia: 25.3, 25.4, 25.6, 26.2, 25.6, 25.2, 25.8, 25.3, 23.4, 23.9, 24.0, 24.1, 24.5, 24.9, 25.3. - Europe: 35.1, 34.4, 34.4, 33.4, 33.8, 33.8, 35.2, 35.1, 34.6, 34.8, 34.9, 34.7, 34.6, 34.4, 34.1. - Latin America: 30.1, 29.8, 28.9, 26.3, 26.8, 27.2, 27.1, 27.2, 25.9, 26.6, 26.4, 26.5, 26.7, 26.8, 26.8. - MENA: 38.0, 36.9, 35.8, 28.5, 24.9, 27.0, 30.2, 28.7, 24.2, 24.4, 24.8, 24.5, 24.3, 24.2, 24.1. - G20 Emerging: 28.9, 28.6, 28.1, 27.4, 27.1, 26.9, 27.5, 27.1, 25.2, 25.6, 25.6, 25.7, 26.0, 26.3, 26.5. - Selected country revenue series (percent of GDP, 2012…2026; series shown as in table): - Argentina: 33.8, 34.3, 34.6, 35.4, 34.9, 34.4, 33.5, 33.3, 33.5, ... (data series ends with missing values in table for later years). - Brazil: 34.7, 34.5, 32.5, 28.2, 30.6, 30.4, 30.6, 31.4, 29.4, 30.2, 29.6, 29.5, 29.6, 29.5, 29.4. - China: 27.9, 27.7, 28.1, 28.8, 28.2, 27.8, 28.3, 27.8, 25.3, 25.8, 25.9, 26.0, 26.5, 26.9, 27.4. - India: 19.8, 19.6, 19.1, 19.9, 20.1, 20.0, 20.0, 19.7, 18.3, 19.2, 19.5, 19.6, 19.8, 20.0, 20.1. - Egypt: 20.8, 21.7, 24.4, 22.0, 20.3, 21.8, 20.7, 20.3, 19.2, 19.9, 21.0, 21.2, 21.4, 21.6, 21.6. - Peru: 22.4, 22.3, 22.4, 20.3, 18.8, 18.3, 19.4, 19.9, 17.9, 17.9, 18.3, 18.7, 18.8, 18.9, 19.1. - Russia: 34.4, 33.5, 33.9, 31.9, 32.2, 33.4, 35.5, 35.8, 35.4, 36.4, 36.3, 36.0, 35.8, 35.4, 34.9. - Uruguay (nonfinancial public sector coverage): 25.6, 27.2, 26.6, 26.6, 27.1, 27.5, 28.8, 28.3, 28.1, 27.5, 27.5, 27.8, 28.0, 28.1, 28.2. - Notes on country-specific conventions and data: - Ecuador: data reflect net lending/borrowing for the nonfinancial public sector; historical revisions for 2018–2019 implemented, earlier years to be revised in subsequent World Economic Outlook releases. - Iran: numbers are based on the nominal GDP series before the recent revision; not comparable to authorities’ numbers. - Uruguay: data are for the nonfinancial public sector; coverage changed with October 2019 submission. Transfers to public pension system recorded as revenues: 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018 and 1.1 percent of GDP in 2019, and projected to be 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2021, and zero thereafter (see IMF Country Report No. 19/64 for further details). - Table source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies. ### Emerging Market and Middle‑Income Economies — Expenditure and Debt (selected) - General Government Expenditure (2012–26): - Average general government expenditure: 30.4 percent of GDP (labelled "Average" row). - Regional averages (selected): Asia: 26.9 percent of GDP; Europe: 35.9 percent of GDP; Latin America: 32.9 percent of GDP; MENA: 32.2 percent of GDP; G20 Emerging: 30.2 percent of GDP. - Country examples (percent of GDP, 2012–26 series visible): - Brazil: 37.2, 37.4, 38.5, 38.5, 39.6, 38.3, 37.7, 37.3, 42.7, 36.3, 37.0, 35.9, 35.0, 34.4, 33.9. - China: 28.2, 28.6, 29.0, 31.6, 31.9, 31.6, 32.9, 34.1, 36.5, 33.3, 32.7, 32.1, 32.1, 31.9, 31.9. - General Government Gross Debt (2012–26): - Average general government gross debt: 37.1 percent of GDP (labelled "Average" row). - Regional averages (selected): Asia: 39.6 percent of GDP; Europe: 25.7 percent of GDP; Latin America: 46.8 percent of GDP; MENA: 23.8 percent of GDP; G20 Emerging: 37.3 percent of GDP. - Country examples (percent of GDP, 2012–26 series visible): - Brazil (gross debt, nonfinancial public sector): 62.2, 60.2, 62.3, 72.3, 78.4, 83.6, 85.6, 87.7, 98.9, 90.6, 90.2, 91.7, 92.4, 92.6, 92.4. - India: 68.0, 67.7, 67.1, 69.0, 68.9, 69.7, 70.4, 74.1, 89.6, 90.6, 88.8, 88.1, 87.3, 86.3, 85.2. - Russia: 11.2, 12.1, 12.3, 15.1, 15.3, 14.8, 14.3, 13.6, 13.8, 19.3, 17.9, 17.9, 17.7, 17.8, 17.5. - General Government Net Debt (2012–26): - Average general government net debt: 23.0 percent of GDP (labelled "Average" row). - Regional and subgroup patterns show substantial variation and in several cases negative net debt values for specific economies. ### Low‑Income Developing Countries — Key averages and country examples (2012–26) - Low‑Income Developing Countries — Overall balance (average): –2.2 percent of GDP. - Oil Producers (LICs) — Overall balance (average): –0.4 percent of GDP. - Low‑Income Developing Countries — Primary balance (average): –1.1 percent of GDP. - Low‑Income Developing Countries — Revenue (average): 17.2 percent of GDP. - Low‑Income Developing Countries — Expenditure (average): 19.3 percent of GDP. - Low‑Income Developing Countries — Gross debt (average): 30.1 percent of GDP. - Selected country examples (percent of GDP, 2012–26 series visible): - Ghana — Overall balance: –8.3, –9.1, –7.8, –4.0, –6.7, –4.0, –6.8, –7.2, –15.7, –14.5, –11.1, –10.3, –10.1, –9.0, –8.1. - Kenya — Overall balance: –4.5, –5.1, –6.7, –7.4, –7.8, –7.5, –7.0, –7.3, –8.1, –8.0, –6.7, –4.9, –4.0, –3.2, –2.5. - Nigeria — Revenue: 14.7, 11.5, 10.9, 7.2, 5.1, 6.6, 8.5, 7.8, 6.3, 7.2, 6.9, 6.6, 6.6, 6.5, 6.5; Gross debt: 17.6, 18.3, 17.5, 20.3, 23.4, 25.3, 27.7, 29.2, 35.0, 36.7, 36.9, 37.7, 39.1, 40.6, 42.0. ### Structural fiscal indicators — Advanced, Emerging, and Low‑Income groups (selected) - Advanced Economies (table A23 summary row): - Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.8 (percent of GDP). - Net Present Value of Pension Spending Change, 2020–50: 25.0 (percent of GDP). - Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 2.6 (percent of GDP). - Net Present Value of Health Care Spending Change, 2020–50: 91.2 (percent of GDP). - Gross Financing Need, 2021: 32.8 (percent of GDP). - Projected Interest‑Rate Growth Differential, 2021–26: 7.0 (percent). - Country examples: - United States — Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 1.2; Net Present Value of Pension Spending Change, 2020–50: 30.3; Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 4.4; Net Present Value of Health Care Spending Change, 2020–50: 152.3; Gross Financing Need, 2021: 45.0; Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: 5.2; Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –3.7; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –5.0; Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 25.0 (percent of total). - Japan — Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: –1.2; Net Present Value of Pension Spending Change, 2020–50: –2.8; Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 1.7; Net Present Value of Health Care Spending Change, 2020–50: 56.5; Gross Financing Need, 2021: 61.3; Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: 7.7; Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –1.4; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –4.9; Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 13.5 (percent of total). - Germany — Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 1.1; Net Present Value of Pension Spending Change, 2020–50: 32.1; Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.7; Net Present Value of Health Care Spending Change, 2020–50: 35.3; Gross Financing Need, 2021: 14.4; Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: 6.6; Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –3.2; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: 0.9; Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 56.3 (percent of total). - Emerging Market and Middle‑Income Economies (table A24 summary row): - Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 1.8 (percent of GDP). - Net Present Value of Pension Spending Change, 2020–50: 74.6 (percent of GDP). - Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.5 (percent of GDP). - Net Present Value of Health Care Spending Change, 2020–50: 20.1 (percent of GDP). - Gross Financing Need, 2021: 13.6 (percent of GDP). - Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: 7.3 (percent). - Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –4.8 (percent of GDP). - Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –3.3 (percent of GDP). - Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 16.0 (percent of total). - Country examples: - Brazil — Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 3.8; Net Present Value of Pension Spending Change, 2020–50: 153.0; Gross Financing Need, 2021: 22.1; Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential: 5.5; Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: 0.0; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –6.4. - India — Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.7; Net Present Value, 2020–50: 30.3; Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.2; Gross Financing Need, 2021: 15.4; Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: 10.0; Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –4.5; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –7.0; Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 4.5 (percent). - China — Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 2.3; Net Present Value, 2020–50: 99.9; Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.6; Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: 6.8; Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –5.8; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –2.9; Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 3.8 (percent). - Low‑Income Developing Countries (table A25 summary row): - Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.6 (percent of GDP). - Net Present Value of Pension Spending Change, 2020–50: 22.6 (percent of GDP). - Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.1 (percent of GDP). - Net Present Value of Health Care Spending Change, 2020–50: 5.8 (percent of GDP). - Average Term to Maturity, 2021: 5.6 (years). - Debt to Average Maturity, 2021: 9.8. - Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: –6.6 (percent). - Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –3.5 (percent of GDP). - Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –4.6 (percent of GDP). - Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 54.7 (percent of total). - Country examples: - Bangladesh — Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.2; Net Present Value, 2020–50: 13.0; Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.1; Average Term to Maturity, 2021: 4.9; Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: 7.9; Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –5.2; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –3.8; Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 38.8 (percent). - Kenya — Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.4; Net Present Value, 2020–50: 22.6; Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.2; Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: 7.4; Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –3.7; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –6.7; Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 48.8 (percent). ### Specific data points referenced in country notes - Uruguay: Transfers to public pension system recorded as revenues: 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018 and 1.1 percent of GDP in 2019, and projected to be 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2021, and zero thereafter (see IMF Country Report No. 19/64 for further details). - Spain: The reclassification of SAREB increased the deficit by €9.9 billion in 2020. - Ireland: Fiscal balance estimates, excluding banking sector support measures, are −7.9 percent of GDP for 2012; fiscal balance for 2015 excluding conversion of preference shares is −1.1 percent of GDP. *International Monetary Fund | October 2021 — Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2021/october/english/msa.pdf* ### 2014. Most other countries follow the GFSM 2001, ### msa - 2014. Most other countries follow the GFSM 2001, ### Fiscal data frameworks and definitions - Most countries follow the GFSM 2001; some countries, including a significant proportion of low-income developing countries, have fiscal data based on the 1986 GFSM. - The overall fiscal balance refers to net lending and borrowing of the general government. In some cases, however, the overall balance refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending. - The fiscal gross and net debt data reported in the Fiscal Monitor are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates. - Attempts are made to align gross and net debt data with the definitions in the GFSM, but data limitations or specific country circumstances can cause deviations from the formal definitions. - Differences in both sectoral and instrument coverage mean that debt data are not universally comparable. - As more information becomes available, changes in either data sources or instrument coverage can give rise to data revisions that are sometimes substantial. ### Data update frequency and special datasets - The data for the pension and health spending from Tables A23–A25 are updated once per year in the April edition of the Fiscal Monitor. - As used in the Fiscal Monitor, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice; it also covers some territorial entities that are not states but whose statistical data are maintained separately and independently. ### Cross-economy adjustments and comparability notes - For cross-economy comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for economies that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, United States) are adjusted to exclude the unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans. ### Country-specific methodological and coverage notes - Australia: Gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans. - Bangladesh: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Brazil: - General government data refer to the non-financial public sector—which includes the federal, state, and local governments, as well as public enterprises (excluding Petrobras and Eletrobras)—and are consolidated with those for the sovereign wealth fund. - Revenue and expenditures of federal public enterprises are added in full to the respective aggregates. - Transfers and withdrawals from the sovereign wealth fund do not affect the primary balance. - Disaggregated data on gross interest payments and interest receipts are available only from 2003 onward. Before 2003, total revenue of the general government excludes interest receipts; total expenditure of the general government includes net interest payments. - Gross public debt includes the Treasury bills on the central bank’s balance sheet, including those not used under repurchase agreements. - Net public debt consolidates nonfinancial public sector and central bank debt. - The national definition of general government gross debt excludes government securities held by the central bank, except the stock of Treasury securities used for monetary policy by the central bank (those pledged as security reverse repurchase agreement operations). - According to this national definition, gross debt amounted to 88.8 percent of GDP at the end of 2020. - Canada: For cross-economy comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans. - Chile: Cyclically adjusted balances refer to the structural balance, which includes adjustments for output and commodity price developments. - China: - Public debt data include central government debt as reported by the Ministry of Finance, explicit local government debt, and shares of contingent liabilities the government may incur, based on estimates from the National Audit Office estimate. - IMF staff estimates exclude central government debt issued for the China Railway Corporation. - Relative to the authorities’ definition, consolidated general government net borrowing excludes transfers to and from stabilization funds, but includes (1) state-administered funds, state-owned enterprise funds, and social security contributions and expenses; and (2) some off-budget spending by local governments. - Deficit numbers do not include some expenditure items, mostly infrastructure investment financed off budget through land sales and local government financing vehicles. - Fiscal balances are not consistent with reported debt, because no time series of data in line with the National Audit Office debt definition is published officially. - Colombia: Gross public debt refers to the combined public sector, including Ecopetrol and excluding Banco de la República’s outstanding external debt. - Dominican Republic: Public debt, debt service, and cyclically adjusted or structural balances are for the consolidated public sector (which includes the central government, the rest of the nonfinancial public sector, and the central bank); remaining fiscal series are for the central government. - Egypt: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Ethiopia: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Greece: General government gross debt follows the GFSM definition, and includes the stock of deferred interest. - Haiti: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: - Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for land revenue and investment income. - For cross-economy comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for countries that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, United States) are adjusted to exclude the unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans. - Iceland: Gross debt excludes insurance technical reserves (including pension liabilities) and other accounts payable. - India: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Iran, Islamic Republic of: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Ireland: - General government balances for 2012 reflect the impact of banking sector support. Fiscal balance estimates, excluding these measures, are −7.9 percent of GDP for 2012. - For 2015, if the conversion of the government’s remaining preference shares to ordinary shares in one bank is excluded, the fiscal balance is −1.1 percent of GDP. - Cyclically adjusted balances reported in Appendix Tables A3 and A4 exclude financial sector support measures. - Ireland’s 2015 national accounts were revised as a result of restructuring and relocation of multinational companies, which resulted in a level shift of nominal and real GDP. - Japan: Gross debt is on an unconsolidated basis. - Latvia: The fiscal deficit includes bank restructuring costs and thus is higher than the deficit in official statistics. - Mexico: General government refers to the central government, social security funds, public enterprises, development banks, the national insurance corporation, and the National Infrastructure Fund, but excludes subnational governments. - Myanmar: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Nepal: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Norway: Cyclically adjusted balances correspond to the cyclically adjusted non-oil overall or primary balance. These variables are in percent of non-oil potential GDP. - Pakistan: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Peru: Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for commodity price developments. - Singapore: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Spain: Overall and primary balances include financial sector support measures estimated to be 3.7 percent of GDP for 2012, 0.3 percent of GDP for 2013. *International Monetary Fund | October 2021* ### 0.1 percent of GDP for 2014, 0.1 percent of GDP for ### msa - 0.1 percent of GDP for 2014, 0.1 percent of GDP for ### Data and Accounting Conventions - Spain: The reclassification of Spain’s Asset Management Company SAREB into the general government increased the deficit by €9.9 billion in 2020. - Sweden: Cyclically adjusted balances account for output and employment gaps; the fiscal impact of cyclical developments is calculated using the 2014 OECD elasticity, which incorporates output and employment gaps. - Switzerland: Data submissions at the cantonal and commune levels are received with a long and variable lag and are subject to sizable revisions. Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for extraordinary operations related to the banking sector. - Thailand: Data are on a fiscal year basis. - Turkey: Fiscal projections assume a more negative primary and overall balance than envisaged in the authorities’ New Economic Program 2021–23 (September 2020) partly from deterioration in the growth outlook related to the COVID-19 pandemic and partly from definitional differences. The basis for the projections in the World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor is the IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenue and expenditure items included in the authorities’ headline balance. - United States: Cyclically adjusted balances exclude financial sector support estimated at 0.1 percent of potential GDP for 2012, and 0.0 percent of potential GDP for 2013. For cross-economy comparability, expenditures and fiscal balances are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditures under the 2008 SNA adopted by the United States, but not for countries that have not yet adopted the 2008 SNA. Data for the United States may thus differ from data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Gross and net debt levels reported by the BEA and national statistical agencies for other economies that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region) are adjusted to exclude the unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans. - Uruguay: Data are for the nonfinancial public sector (central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado). The coverage of fiscal data was changed from the consolidated public sector to the nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 submission; central bank balances are not included in the fiscal data because of this narrower coverage. - Venezuela: Fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government; social security funds, FOGADE (insurance deposit institution), and a sample of public enterprises, including Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA). Data for 2018–19 are IMF staff estimates. ### Fiscal Policy Assumptions and Projection Basis - Alignment: Historical data and projections of key fiscal aggregates are in line with those of the October 2021 World Economic Outlook unless noted otherwise. - Short-term assumptions: Based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between national authorities and IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. - Medium-term assumptions: Incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented. - When IMF staff lacks sufficient information to assess authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed unless indicated otherwise. - Country-specific adjustments and bases (selected examples): - Afghanistan: All projections for 2021–26 are omitted because of an unusually high degree of uncertainty. - Argentina: Fiscal variables are excluded from publication for 2021–26 as these are to a large extent linked to still-pending program negotiations. - Australia: Projections based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, fiscal year 2021/22 Commonwealth budget, subnational budgets (as of September 10), and IMF staff estimates and projections. - Austria: Projections based on the revised 2021 budget, the Austria Stability Programme, and the Austria National Reform Programme 2021; new EU recovery funds incorporated. - Belgium: Projections based on the 2021–22 Stability Programme, Draft Budgetary Plan 2020, the 2021 budget, and other available information, with IMF staff adjustments. - Brazil: Projections for 2021 reflect policy announcements as of May 31, 2021; medium-term projections reflect full compliance with Brazil’s constitutional expenditure ceiling. - Canada: Projections use baseline forecasts from the Federal Budget 2021 and the latest provincial budgets, with IMF staff adjustments and incorporation of recent Statistics Canada releases. - China: After a large fiscal expansion estimated for 2020, a significant tightening is projected for 2021 based on the 2021 government budget and fiscal outturn to date. - India: Historical data based on budgetary execution data; projections based on authorities’ fiscal plans with IMF staff adjustments and noted differences (disinvestment, license-auction proceeds, net vs. gross recording in minor categories). Starting fiscal year 2020/21, expenditure includes off-budget component of food subsidies; IMF staff adjusts expenditure to remove payments for previous years’ food subsidies included in budget estimates for fiscal years 2020/21 and 2021/22. - Spain: Fiscal projections for 2021 include COVID-19–related support measures, legislated increase in pensions, legislated revenue measures; from 2022 onward projections assume no policy changes. Disbursements under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility are reflected for 2021–24. - Sweden: Projections for 2020 are based on preliminary information on the Fall 2020 budget bill; fiscal impact of cyclical developments uses the 2014 OECD elasticity incorporating output and employment gaps. - Switzerland: Authorities’ announced discretionary stimulus is reflected for 2020 and 2021 and is permitted under the debt brake rule in the event of “exceptional circumstances.” - Turkey: The IMF-defined fiscal balance basis excludes some revenues and expenditure items included in the authorities’ headline balance. - United Kingdom: Projections based on GDP data published June 30, 2021, and OBR forecasts from March 3, 2021; revenue projections adjusted for differences in macro forecasts; assume COVID-19 measures expire as announced and additional fiscal consolidation begins in fiscal year 2023/24 to stabilize public debt within five years. - United States: Projections based on the July 2021 Congressional Budget Office baseline adjusted for IMF staff policy and macro assumptions; incorporate effects of proposed American Jobs, American Families, and Bipartisan Infrastructure Plans; legislated American Rescue Plan; and other pandemic-related legislation and programs. Data compiled using the 2008 SNA and converted to a general government basis; most series begin in 2001. ### Tables and Key Statistics (selected highlights preserved exactly as in source) - Advanced Economies: General Government Overall Balance, 2012–26 (Percent of GDP) — Average series start: –5.5–3.7–3.1–2.6–2.7–2.4–2.5–3.0–10.8–8.8–4.8–3.6–3.2–3.1–3.0. - Spain: General Government Overall Balance, 2012–26 (Percent of GDP) — –10.7–7.0–5.9–5.2–4.3–3.0–2.5–2.9–11.0–8.6–5.0–4.4–4.2–4.2–4.3. - United States: General Government Overall Balance, 2012–26 (Percent of GDP) — –8.0–4.5–4.0–3.5–4.3–4.6–5.4–5.7–14.9–10.8–6.9–5.7–5.2–5.3–5.3. - Advanced Economies: General Government Gross Debt, 2012–26 (Percent of GDP) — Average series start: 105.5 104.0 103.6 103.1 105.6 103.2 102.7 103.8 122.7 121.6 119.3 119.3 119.1 118.8 118.6. - United States: General Government Gross Debt, 2012–26 (Percent of GDP) — 103.0 104.5 104.5 104.9 106.9 106.0 107.1 108.5 133.9 133.3 130.7 131.1 131.7 132.5 133.5. - Advanced Economies: General Government Revenue, 2012–26 (Percent of GDP) — Average series: 35.3 36.5 36.5 36.1 36.0 35.9 35.9 35.7 35.9 36.0 36.5 36.6 36.5 36.4 36.4. - Advanced Economies: General Government Expenditure, 2012–26 (Percent of GDP) — Average series: 40.7 40.2 39.6 38.7 38.7 38.3 38.4 38.6 46.7 44.8 41.3 40.2 39.7 39.5 39.4. - Advanced Economies: General Government Net Debt, 2012–26 (Percent of GDP) — Average series: 76.1 75.0 75.2 75.2 76.9 75.1 74.8 75.1 88.1 89.8 88.7 89.2 89.5 90.3 91.0. ### Methodological Notes and Coverage - Tables A–D and A1–A11 provide detailed country groupings, definitions, coverage, accounting practice, and time series (2012–26) for overall balances, primary balances, cyclically adjusted balances, cyclically adjusted primary balances, revenue, expenditure, gross debt, and net debt, with country-specific coverage notes (central government, general government, local governments, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, etc.) and accounting practice (A = accrual; C = cash; Mixed). - Valuation conventions for debt are specified: “Nominal,” “Face,” and “Current market” definitions are provided and applied across tables as indicated. - Several country footnotes identify data caveats, revisions, changed coverage, and IMF staff estimate periods (for example, Ecuador, Egypt, Uruguay, Venezuela, Norway, Greece, Cyprus, United States, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong SAR). *Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2021/october/english/msa.pdf* ### 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2021, and zero thereafter. See IMF country report No. 19/64 for furthe ### msa - 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2021, and zero thereafter. See IMF country report No. 19/64 for furthe ### Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance: Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies (Table A12) - Definition note: “Cyclically adjusted primary balance” is defined as the cyclically adjusted balance plus net interest payable/paid (interest expense minus interest revenue) following the World Economic Outlook convention. - Average (percent of potential GDP), 2012–26: - Average series: –0.1, –0.1, –0.1, –0.3, –0.3, –0.3, –0.3, –0.5, –1.1, –0.8, –0.8, –0.7, –0.6, –0.6, –0.5 (2012 through 2026). - Regional series (percent of potential GDP), 2012–26: - Asia: –0.4, –0.6, –0.6, –1.8, –2.4, –2.3, –3.0, –4.2, –7.2, –5.5, –4.9, –4.3, –3.9, –3.5, –3.0. - Europe: 0.2, –0.7, 0.1, –1.0, –1.1, –0.5, 1.0, 0.0, –3.8, –1.8, –1.1, –0.8, –0.8, –0.9, –0.9. - Latin America: 0.0, –0.5, –1.8, –2.0, –1.6, –1.0, –0.6, 0.1, –3.8, –2.1, –0.9, –0.3, 0.2, 0.6, 0.9. - MENA: 0.0 repeated for 2012–2026 in the table. - G20 Emerging: –0.2, –0.7, –0.8, –2.0, –2.4, –2.0, –2.2, –3.2, –6.7, –4.5, –4.1, –3.6, –3.2, –2.8, –2.4. - Selected country highlights (cyclically adjusted primary balance, percent of potential GDP, 2012…2026; series shown as in table): - Brazil: 0.9, 0.3, –2.1, –2.0, –1.4, –0.9, –1.1, –0.5, –8.0, –1.3, –0.5, –0.2, 0.3, 0.7, 1.2. - Chile: –0.3, –0.4, –0.4, 0.7, –0.7, –1.6, –1.1, –1.3, –2.0, –10.3, –3.4, –2.3, –1.2, –0.1, –0.1. - China: 0.1, –0.4, –0.4, –2.0, –2.7, –2.9, –3.7, –5.1, –8.6, –6.0, –5.5, –5.0, –4.6, –4.0, –3.5. - India: –3.0, –2.1, –2.3, –2.5, –2.7, –1.4, –2.0, –2.7, –4.0, –4.1, –3.7, –3.1, –2.7, –2.4, –2.2. - Egypt: –4.9, –6.1, –4.5, –4.6, –3.9, –2.7, –0.5, 1.6, 2.1, 1.1, 1.5, 1.9, 1.9, 1.9, 1.7. - Peru: 2.2, 1.1, 0.8, –0.6, –0.9, –1.1, –0.5, 0.6, –4.7, –3.8, –2.6, –2.7, –2.6, –2.8, –2.8. - Russia: 0.3, –1.2, 0.3, –2.8, –2.8, –0.5, 3.4, 2.3, –4.2, 0.0, 0.5, 0.7, 0.5, 0.1, –0.2. - Romania: 0.4, 0.0, 0.5, 0.7, –0.7, –2.3, –2.3, –4.4, –7.4, –4.9, –4.0, –3.9, –3.8, –3.5, –3.2. - Table source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies. ### General Government Revenue: Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies (Table A13) - Coverage: General government revenue (Percent of GDP), 2012–26. - Average (percent of GDP), 2012–26: - Average series: 29.4, 29.0, 28.4, 27.2, 26.6, 26.7, 27.5, 27.0, 25.1, 25.5, 25.6, 25.6, 25.9, 26.1, 26.3 (2012 through 2026). - Regional series (percent of GDP), 2012–26: - Asia: 25.3, 25.4, 25.6, 26.2, 25.6, 25.2, 25.8, 25.3, 23.4, 23.9, 24.0, 24.1, 24.5, 24.9, 25.3. - Europe: 35.1, 34.4, 34.4, 33.4, 33.8, 33.8, 35.2, 35.1, 34.6, 34.8, 34.9, 34.7, 34.6, 34.4, 34.1. - Latin America: 30.1, 29.8, 28.9, 26.3, 26.8, 27.2, 27.1, 27.2, 25.9, 26.6, 26.4, 26.5, 26.7, 26.8, 26.8. - MENA: 38.0, 36.9, 35.8, 28.5, 24.9, 27.0, 30.2, 28.7, 24.2, 24.4, 24.8, 24.5, 24.3, 24.2, 24.1. - G20 Emerging: 28.9, 28.6, 28.1, 27.4, 27.1, 26.9, 27.5, 27.1, 25.2, 25.6, 25.6, 25.7, 26.0, 26.3, 26.5. - Selected country revenue series (percent of GDP, 2012…2026; series shown as in table): - Argentina: 33.8, 34.3, 34.6, 35.4, 34.9, 34.4, 33.5, 33.3, 33.5, ... (data series ends with missing values in table for later years). - Brazil: 34.7, 34.5, 32.5, 28.2, 30.6, 30.4, 30.6, 31.4, 29.4, 30.2, 29.6, 29.5, 29.6, 29.5, 29.4. - China: 27.9, 27.7, 28.1, 28.8, 28.2, 27.8, 28.3, 27.8, 25.3, 25.8, 25.9, 26.0, 26.5, 26.9, 27.4. - India: 19.8, 19.6, 19.1, 19.9, 20.1, 20.0, 20.0, 19.7, 18.3, 19.2, 19.5, 19.6, 19.8, 20.0, 20.1. - Egypt: 20.8, 21.7, 24.4, 22.0, 20.3, 21.8, 20.7, 20.3, 19.2, 19.9, 21.0, 21.2, 21.4, 21.6, 21.6. - Peru: 22.4, 22.3, 22.4, 20.3, 18.8, 18.3, 19.4, 19.9, 17.9, 17.9, 18.3, 18.7, 18.8, 18.9, 19.1. - Russia: 34.4, 33.5, 33.9, 31.9, 32.2, 33.4, 35.5, 35.8, 35.4, 36.4, 36.3, 36.0, 35.8, 35.4, 34.9. - Uruguay (nonfinancial public sector coverage): 25.6, 27.2, 26.6, 26.6, 27.1, 27.5, 28.8, 28.3, 28.1, 27.5, 27.5, 27.8, 28.0, 28.1, 28.2. - Notes on country-specific conventions and data: - Ecuador: data reflect net lending/borrowing for the nonfinancial public sector; historical revisions for 2018–2019 implemented, earlier years to be revised in subsequent World Economic Outlook releases. - Iran: numbers are based on the nominal GDP series before the recent revision; not comparable to authorities’ numbers. - Uruguay: data are for the nonfinancial public sector; coverage changed with October 2019 submission. Transfers to public pension system recorded as revenues: 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018 and 1.1 percent of GDP in 2019, and projected to be 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2021, and zero thereafter (see IMF Country Report No. 19/64 for further details). - Table source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies. *Source: IMF staff estimates and projections (Fiscal Monitor: Strengthening the Credibility of Public Finances, October 2021).* ### 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2021, and zero thereafter. See IMF Country Report No. 19/64 for furthe ### msa - 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2021, and zero thereafter. See IMF Country Report No. 19/64 for furthe ### Disclaimer and scope - The disclaimer about the public pension system applies only to the revenues and net lending/borrowing series. - Projections are based on IMF staff estimates and projections and on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). ### Emerging Market and Middle‑Income Economies — General Government Expenditure (2012–26) - Average general government expenditure: 30.4 percent of GDP (labelled "Average" row). - Regional averages (selected): - Asia: 26.9 percent of GDP (average across series shown). - Europe: 35.9 percent of GDP (average across series shown). - Latin America: 32.9 percent of GDP (average across series shown). - MENA: 32.2 percent of GDP (average across series shown). - G20 Emerging: 30.2 percent of GDP (average across series shown). - Country examples (percent of GDP, 2012–26 series visible): - Brazil: values range including 37.2, 37.4, 38.5, 38.5, 39.6, 38.3, 37.7, 37.3, 42.7, 36.3, 37.0, 35.9, 35.0, 34.4, 33.9. - China: values include 28.2, 28.6, 29.0, 31.6, 31.9, 31.6, 32.9, 34.1, 36.5, 33.3, 32.7, 32.1, 32.1, 31.9, 31.9. ### Emerging Market and Middle‑Income Economies — General Government Gross Debt (2012–26) - Average general government gross debt: 37.1 percent of GDP (labelled "Average" row). - Regional averages (selected): - Asia: 39.6 percent of GDP (average across series shown). - Europe: 25.7 percent of GDP (average across series shown). - Latin America: 46.8 percent of GDP (average across series shown). - MENA: 23.8 percent of GDP (average across series shown). - G20 Emerging: 37.3 percent of GDP (average across series shown). - Country examples (percent of GDP, 2012–26 series visible): - Brazil (gross debt, nonfinancial public sector): 62.2, 60.2, 62.3, 72.3, 78.4, 83.6, 85.6, 87.7, 98.9, 90.6, 90.2, 91.7, 92.4, 92.6, 92.4. - India: 68.0, 67.7, 67.1, 69.0, 68.9, 69.7, 70.4, 74.1, 89.6, 90.6, 88.8, 88.1, 87.3, 86.3, 85.2. - Russia: 11.2, 12.1, 12.3, 15.1, 15.3, 14.8, 14.3, 13.6, 13.8, 19.3, 17.9, 17.9, 17.7, 17.8, 17.5. ### Emerging Market and Middle‑Income Economies — General Government Net Debt (2012–26) - Average general government net debt: 23.0 percent of GDP (labelled "Average" row). - Regional and subgroup patterns show substantial variation and in several cases negative net debt values for specific economies (table contains many country‑level net debt series and gaps for some economies). ### Low‑Income Developing Countries — Overall and Primary Balances, Revenues, Expenditure, Debt (2012–26) - Low‑Income Developing Countries — Overall balance (average): –2.2 percent of GDP (2012–26 average row). - Oil Producers (LICs) — Overall balance (average): –0.4 percent of GDP. - Low‑Income Developing Countries — Primary balance (average): –1.1 percent of GDP (2012–26 average row). - Low‑Income Developing Countries — Revenue (average): 17.2 percent of GDP (2012–26 average row). - Low‑Income Developing Countries — Expenditure (average): 19.3 percent of GDP (2012–26 average row). - Low‑Income Developing Countries — Gross debt (average): 30.1 percent of GDP (2012–26 average row). - Selected country examples (percent of GDP, 2012–26 series visible): - Ghana — Overall balance: –8.3, –9.1, –7.8, –4.0, –6.7, –4.0, –6.8, –7.2, –15.7, –14.5, –11.1, –10.3, –10.1, –9.0, –8.1. - Kenya — Overall balance: –4.5, –5.1, –6.7, –7.4, –7.8, –7.5, –7.0, –7.3, –8.1, –8.0, –6.7, –4.9, –4.0, –3.2, –2.5. - Nigeria — Revenue: 14.7, 11.5, 10.9, 7.2, 5.1, 6.6, 8.5, 7.8, 6.3, 7.2, 6.9, 6.6, 6.6, 6.5, 6.5; Gross debt: 17.6, 18.3, 17.5, 20.3, 23.4, 25.3, 27.7, 29.2, 35.0, 36.7, 36.9, 37.7, 39.1, 40.6, 42.0. ### Structural Fiscal Indicators — Advanced Economies (selected highlights) - Average structural fiscal indicators (table A23 summary row): - Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.8 (percent of GDP). - Net Present Value of Pension Spending Change, 2020–50: 25.0 (percent of GDP). - Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 2.6 (percent of GDP). - Net Present Value of Health Care Spending Change, 2020–50: 91.2 (percent of GDP). - Gross Financing Need, 2021: 32.8 (percent of GDP). - Projected Interest‑Rate Growth Differential, 2021–26: 7.0 (percent) — note this column is labelled but values vary by economy. - Country examples (selected entries): - United States — Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 1.2; Net Present Value of Pension Spending Change, 2020–50: 30.3; Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 4.4; Net Present Value of Health Care Spending Change, 2020–50: 152.3; Gross Financing Need, 2021: 45.0; Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: 5.2; Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –3.7; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –5.0; Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 25.0 (percent of total). - Japan — Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: –1.2; Net Present Value of Pension Spending Change, 2020–50: –2.8; Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 1.7; Net Present Value of Health Care Spending Change, 2020–50: 56.5; Gross Financing Need, 2021: 61.3; Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: 7.7; Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –1.4; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –4.9; Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 13.5 (percent of total). - Germany — Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 1.1; Net Present Value of Pension Spending Change, 2020–50: 32.1; Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.7; Net Present Value of Health Care Spending Change, 2020–50: 35.3; Gross Financing Need, 2021: 14.4; Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: 6.6; Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –3.2; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: 0.9; Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 56.3 (percent of total). ### Structural Fiscal Indicators — Emerging Market and Middle‑Income Economies (selected highlights) - Average structural fiscal indicators (table A24 summary row): - Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 1.8 (percent of GDP). - Net Present Value of Pension Spending Change, 2020–50: 74.6 (percent of GDP). - Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.5 (percent of GDP). - Net Present Value of Health Care Spending Change, 2020–50: 20.1 (percent of GDP). - Gross Financing Need, 2021: 13.6 (percent of GDP). - Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: 7.3 (percent). - Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –4.8 (percent of GDP). - Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –3.3 (percent of GDP). - Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 16.0 (percent of total). - Country examples (selected entries, percent of GDP or percent as indicated): - Brazil — Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 3.8; Net Present Value of Pension Spending Change, 2020–50: 153.0; Gross Financing Need, 2021: 22.1; Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential: 5.5; Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: 0.0; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –6.4. - India — Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.7; Net Present Value, 2020–50: 30.3; Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.2; Gross Financing Need, 2021: 15.4; Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: 10.0; Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –4.5; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –7.0; Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 4.5 (percent). - China — Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 2.3; Net Present Value, 2020–50: 99.9; Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.6; Gross Financing Need, 2021: (not shown in that cell) ; Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: 6.8; Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –5.8; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –2.9; Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 3.8 (percent). ### Structural Fiscal Indicators — Low‑Income Developing Countries (selected highlights) - Average structural fiscal indicators (table A25 summary row): - Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.6 (percent of GDP). - Net Present Value of Pension Spending Change, 2020–50: 22.6 (percent of GDP). - Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.1 (percent of GDP). - Net Present Value of Health Care Spending Change, 2020–50: 5.8 (percent of GDP). - Average Term to Maturity, 2021: 5.6 (years). - Debt to Average Maturity, 2021: 9.8. - Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: –6.6 (percent). - Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –3.5 (percent of GDP). - Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –4.6 (percent of GDP). - Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 54.7 (percent of total). - Country examples: - Bangladesh — Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.2; Net Present Value, 2020–50: 13.0; Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.1; Average Term to Maturity, 2021: 4.9; Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: 7.9; Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –5.2; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –3.8; Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 38.8 (percent). - Kenya — Pension Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.4; Net Present Value, 2020–50: 22.6; Health Care Spending Change, 2020–30: 0.2; Projected Interest‑Rate–Growth Differential, 2021–26: 7.4; Prepandemic Overall Balance, 2012–19: –3.7; Projected Overall Balance, 2020–26: –6.7; Nonresident Holding of General Government Debt, 2020: 48.8 (percent). *Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text).* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2021/october/english/msa.pdf_