## fiscal-monitor-ch1-database (dataset overview)

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [fiscal-monitor-ch1-database (dataset overview)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2023/october/data/fiscal-monitor-ch1-database.xlsx)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2023/october/data/fiscal-monitor-ch1-database.xlsx.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2023/october/data/fiscal-monitor-ch1-database.xlsx.json)

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### Dataset scope and structure
- Workbook contains multiple worksheets with tables and figure data for Chapter 1: mitigation instruments, emissions series, policy simulations, debt dynamics, sectoral impacts, firm survey results, model calibration, and sensitivity analyses.
- Key worksheet names sampled: "Table 1.1", "Figure 1.1", "Figure 1.3", "Figure 1.5", "Figure 1.8", "Figure 1.9", "Figure 1.12", numerous "Online Annex" figures and tables, and calibration/sensitivity tables.

### Mitigation instruments (Table 1.1)
- Coverage and instrument list includes:
  - Economywide policies: "Carbon taxes" and "Emission trading systems" — Environmental effectiveness indicators show "✔✔✔" for Power, Industry, and Extractives (CH4) in the table sample.
  - Sectoral policies: "Feebates (fees/rebates for dirty/clean firms/ products/activities)", "Tradable performance standards", "Green subsidies", "Requirements for green technologies/ activities" with varied effectiveness marks (e.g., "✔✔", "✔✔✔").
- Table preserves sector tags including "Power", "Industry", "Transport", "Buildings", "Forestry/ Land use", "Extractives (CH4)", and "Livestock (CH4, NOx)".

### Historical and projected emissions (Figure 1.1)
- Emissions series (sample rows) for 1990–2050 by gas and aggregate:
  - CO2: 1990 = 21988.831704252945; 2020 = 34711.712588606846; 2021 = 36067.69036628762.
  - Methane: 1990 = 7357.550732660361; 2021 = 9374.647800588546.
  - Other GHGs: 1990 = 4718.399944346449; 2021 = 7111.74752978474.
  - Total: 1990 = 34064.782381259756; 2020 = 50578.295963320736; 2021 = 52554.085696660906.
- Baseline projected totals (sample): 2021 = 52554.085696660906; 2022 = 52489.65694679779; 2023 = 53642.72620658841; 2024 = 54219.854504325405; 2025 = 55174.99027424105; up to 2036 = 62026.86872020148 in the sample segment.

### Country-level policy impacts on CO2 in 2030 (Figure 1.3 sample)
- Sample percent reductions relative to no climate policies (selected entries):
  - Argentina: "Existing carbon pricing" = -0.5434418729216572; "Sectoral policies" = -18.97774680206944; "ICPF" = -28.87872393948262; "Emissions reductions" total entries: -19.5211886749911 and -28.87872393948262 appear in related columns.
  - Australia: "Renewables pledges" = -26.301378734851653; "Electric vehicle targets" = -1.3726444323214015; combined "Emissions reductions" sample = -27.674023167173054.
  - Canada: "Existing carbon pricing" = -17.10533959151427; "Higher expected prices by 2030" = -19.811823837628097; "Sectoral policies" entries combine to -48.46220608700562 in the sample.
  - China: "Existing carbon pricing" = -1.2175404057530703; "Higher expected prices by 2030" = -1.4817368939136988; aggregate sample sectoral impact = -3.3331941022767153.
- Columns include flags such as "Paris aligned?" with "Yes"/"No" in sample rows.

### Debt dynamics and fiscal components (Figures 1.4, 1.5, 1.12, 1.13, 1.14)
- Illustrative debt and primary balance dynamics when climate policies are expanded (Figure 1.5 sample):
  - Time series points for "Pursuing moderate spending-based instruments (carbon prices capped)" and "Relying mostly on spending-based instruments (carbon prices capped) to reach net-zero goal" show small percentage-point deviations (sample: 2024 = 0.5329363354608763 and 0.4301561498143869 for the two series).
  - Debt dynamics presented in percent of GDP across quarterly time steps (e.g., 2023.25, 2023.5, …).
- Figure 1.12 sample (percent of GDP) decomposes net-zero policy impacts by fiscal component for Advanced economies and Emerging market economies:
  - Sample 2023 values (Advanced economies): Carbon revenue = 0; Other revenue = 0; Green subsidies = 0; Green investment = 0; Targeted transfers = 0; Real GDP growth = 0; Real interest rate = 0; Government-debt-to-GDP ratio = 0.
  - Sample quarterly deviations are provided (e.g., 2023.25 carbon revenue = -0.007694028912637096 for Advanced economies in one scenario; 2023.25 carbon revenue = -0.012157720078541281 for Emerging market economies in another panel).
- Scenario matrices and time paths for "Illustrative well-designed policy package", "Learning by doing", and "Green bottlenecks" across 2023–2025 are present (Figures 1.13, 1.14 samples).

### Carbon pricing initiatives and carbon taxes (Figure 1.8; Online Annex tables)
- Sample listing of national carbon taxes (Figure 1.8 sample rows):
  - Argentina carbon tax: "Price_rate_1_2021" = 3.339010944; "Share of Jurisdictions's GHG emissions covered 2021" = 20; "Value as % of GDP" = 0.026475214910137122.
  - Colombia carbon tax: "Price_rate_1_2021" = 5.055810445; share = 23; "Value as % of GDP" = 0.02663552425284716.
  - Chile carbon tax: "Price_rate_1_2021" = 5; share = 29.4; "Value as % of GDP" = 0.056861825763394956.
  - Singapore carbon tax: "Price_rate_1_2021" = 3.767897513; share = 80; "Value as % of GDP" = 0.03195103862773116.
  - South Africa carbon tax: "Price_rate_1_2021" = 8.925614268; share = 80; "Value as % of GDP" = 0.02337008432728214.
  - Uruguay CO2 tax: "Price_rate_1_2021" = 155.8683502; share = 11.2; "Value as % of GDP" = 0.37728259532321556.
- Fiscal revenue vulnerability for fossil-fuel exporting countries (Online Annex Figure 1.2.1 sample):
  - "Iraq" sample: All fuels revenue = 93.94347001824418; Revenue column sample value = 31.739157797581484.
  - "Kuwait" sample: All fuels revenue = 93.42846361376253; Revenue sample = 38.5041767069308.
  - "Brunei Darussalam" sample: All fuels revenue = 85.71588485259906; Revenue sample = 36.48378537508982.

### Feebates and vehicle/industry measures (Figure 1.9; Online Annex Table 1.4.1)
- Figure 1.9: "Effects of Feebates for New Vehicles, 2021" provides country-specific outcomes and discount factor sensitivity across grams CO2/km increments (sample rows show outputs for "UK", "France", "Germany", "Netherlands", "Portugal", "Norway", "Finland feebate" across discount factors and CO2/km values).
- Online Annex Table 1.4.1 sample feebate formulas:
  - Transport: "Vehicle sales subject to fee = CO2 price × (CO2/km of the vehicle - pivot point CO2/km) × average lifetime km driven."
  - Industry: "Firms subject to fee = CO2 price × (emission rate - pivot point rate for the industry) × production."
  - Power: "Generators subject to fee = CO2 price × (average CO2/kWh across their plants - pivot point CO2/kWh) × production."
  - Capacity notes: Transport feebates "Can be integrated into existing capacity for collecting vehicle registration taxes"; Industry/Power require "Monitoring of firm emission rates."

### Firm survey evidence on investment and incentives (Figures 1.15–1.18; Online Annex Figures)
- Likelihood of investing in mitigation/adaptation (Figure 1.15 sample and Online Annex Table 1.8.1):
  - Coefficient examples for "Green business model" and firm characteristics in sample tables.
  - "Age of firm > 20 years" coefficients (Online Annex Table 1.8.1): New Technology = "0.025***"; Energy Efficiency = "0.075***"; Renewables = "0.057***"; Any Adaptation = "0.019**"; Climate Target = "0.045***".
  - "Small/medium firm" coefficients: New Technology = "–0.053***"; Energy Efficiency = "–0.126***"; Renewables = "–0.072***"; Any Adaptation = "–0.072***"; Climate Target = "–0.278***".
- Firms’ responses to financial incentives (Figure 1.18 sample):
  - US, "Cost constraint" group: "Increase investment" = 21.142857142857142; "Decrease investment" = 14.857142857142858; "No change" = 24; "Unsure" = 13.142857142857142; "NA" = 26.85714285714286.
  - Germany, "Cost constraint" group: "Increase investment" = 54.30257042941561; "Decrease investment" = 3.369329693820147; "No change" = 10.136157140244785; "Unsure" = 13.267048509394805; "NA" = 18.92489422712464.
- Intent to use IRA/EU Green Deal incentives within three years (Figure 1.17 sample):
  - United States, "Investing in emission reduction within three years": Will use = 44.936708860759495; Will not use = 23.417721518987342; Unsure = 31.645569620253166; Proportion of sampled firms = 34.97757847533632.
  - Germany, "Investing in emission reduction within three years": Will use = 27.83415253248514; Will not use = 23.924047306686486; Unsure = 48.24180016082838; Proportion of sampled firms = 72.50470229007635.

### Sectoral cost and production effects (Figure 1.10 sample)
- Change in domestic production costs from baseline, 2030 (percent increase sample):
  - Argentina: Iron and steel = 3.49317876831865; Cement = 40.37968446310829.
  - Canada: Iron and steel = 4.564508661811462; Cement = 45.57794598432918.
  - China: Iron and steel = 5.953618163888308; Cement = 37.05295496291383.
  - Germany: Iron and steel = 4.042150684397838; Cement = 42.57667361042885.

### Model calibration and sensitivity (Online Annex Table 1.2.1 and 1.2.2)
- Selected calibrated parameters (Online Annex Table 1.2.1 sample):
  - "Elasticity of energy in final goods production" = 0.21.
  - "Elasticity between green and brown energy" = 3.5.
  - "Elasticity between private green capital and public green capital" = 0.9.
  - "Share of energy in final goods production" = 0.07.
  - "Share of brown source in energy production" = "0.8 advanced economies; \n0.9 emerging markets".
  - "Share of public green capital in the green capital" = 0.16.
  - "Discount factor" = 0.99.
- Sensitivity examples (Online Annex Table 1.2.2 sample):
  - Benchmark "Policy Package to Reach Net Zero Emission Goal (benchmark)" lists "Carbon price in 2050 (advanced economy)" = "$235 (advanced economy)"; "Change in Debt Ratio Relative to ‘Business as Usual’ Baseline by 2050 (advanced economy)" = "12.5 (advanced economy)".
  - "Lower elasticity of substitution between green and brown energy (η=2)" lists "Carbon price in 2050" = "$660" and "Change in Debt Ratio" = "–1.6".
  - "Lower elasticity ..., limiting carbon pricing at $350, but scaling up investments and subsidies" lists "Carbon price in 2050" = "$350" and "Change in Debt Ratio" = "29".

### Debt simulations and household impacts (Online Annex figures)
- Online Annex illustrative debt dynamics:
  - "Emerging market economy simulation: investment (0.8 percent of GDP) and transfers (30 percent of carbon revenue)" sample: cumulative rise in public debt by 2050 = 15.883920968975861; average primary deficits 2023-50 = 0.41 in the sample row.
  - Online Annex Figure 1.6.1 sample shows index dynamics for "Climate policy with debt reduction" and "Climate policy debt accumulation" with percentage-point paths from baseline = 100 across time steps (sample values for early years: 2015 = 100; 2024 = 89.4102822552413 for the "debt reduction" series sample).
- Household consumption deviations in carbon-pricing-only and mixed-package scenarios (Online Annex Figure 1.2.3 B sample):
  - "Consumption of liquidity constraint household (percent, deviation from BaU)" at 2023.25 = -0.12462306118744548 (one series) and -0.08013885257485143 (alternate series); at 25 = -0.6657228026066275 and -0.07412691381762926 for the two series in sample.

*Source: fiscal-monitor-ch1-database (worksheet samples extracted from the dataset)*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2023/october/data/fiscal-monitor-ch1-database.xlsx_