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### General methodological notes
- Accrual data for non-interest revenues are not available.
- Gross public debt includes the Treasury bills on the central bank’s balance sheet, including those not used under repurchase agreements.
- Net public debt consolidates nonfinancial public sector and central bank debt.
- The authorities’ definition of general government gross debt excludes government securities held by the central bank, except the stock of Treasury securities the central bank uses for monetary policy (those pledged as security reverse repurchase agreement operations).
- According to the authorities’ definition, gross debt amounted to 76.1 percent of GDP at the end of 2024.
- Fiscal balances may be inconsistent with reported debt where time series aligned with certain debt definitions are not published officially.

### Country-specific adjustments, coverage, and definitions (selected)
- Canada:
  - For cross-economy comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for economies that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees, defined-benefit pension plans.
  - Canada’s net debt corresponds to net financial liabilities as reported by Statistics Canada and includes equity and investment fund shares.
  - Statistics Canada recently changed methodology to value assets at market value instead of book value, which has decreased net debt.
- Chile:
  - Cyclically adjusted balances refer to the structural balance, which includes adjustments for output and commodity price developments.
- China:
  - Deficit and public debt numbers cover a narrower perimeter of the general government than IMF staff estimates in China Article IV reports.
  - Public debt data include central government debt as reported by the Ministry of Finance, explicit local government debt, and shares of contingent liabilities based on National Audit Office estimates.
  - IMF staff estimates exclude central government debt issued for China Railway.
  - Consolidated general government net borrowing excludes transfers to and from stabilization funds but includes state-administered funds, state-owned enterprise funds, social security contributions and expenses, and some off-budget local government spending.
  - Deficit numbers do not include some expenditure items, mostly infrastructure investment financed off budget through land sales and local government financing vehicles.
  - Fiscal balances are not consistent with reported debt because no time series aligned with the National Audit Office debt definition is published officially.
- Colombia:
  - Gross public debt refers to the combined public sector, including Ecopetrol and excluding Banco de la República’s outstanding external debt.
- Dominican Republic:
  - Public debt, debt service, and cyclically adjusted or structural balances are for the consolidated public sector (central government, rest of the nonfinancial public sector, and the central bank); remaining fiscal series are for the central government.
- Egypt, Ethiopia, Fiji, Hong Kong SAR, India, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Japan, Mexico, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Singapore, Thailand:
  - Data are on a fiscal year basis (country-specific notes indicate fiscal-year timing).
- Ethiopia:
  - Gross debt refers to the nonfinancial public sector, excluding Ethiopian Airlines.
- Greece:
  - General government gross debt follows the GFSM 2014 definition and includes the stock of deferred interest.
- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region:
  - Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for land revenue and investment income.
  - For cross-economy comparability, gross and net debt levels are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.
- Iceland:
  - Gross debt excludes insurance technical reserves (including pension liabilities) and other accounts payable.
- Ireland:
  - For 2015, if the conversion of the government’s remaining preference shares to ordinary shares in one bank is excluded, then the fiscal balance is −1.1 percent of GDP.
  - Cyclically adjusted balances reported in Tables A3 and A4 exclude financial sector support measures.
  - Ireland’s 2015 national accounts were revised due to restructuring and relocation of multinational companies, resulting in a level shift of nominal and real GDP.
- Mexico:
  - General government refers to the central government, social security funds, public enterprises, development banks, the national insurance corporation, and the National Infrastructure Fund, but excludes subnational governments.
- Norway:
  - Cyclically adjusted balances correspond to the cyclically adjusted non-oil overall or primary balance, expressed as a percentage of non-oil potential GDP.
- Peru:
  - Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for commodity price developments.
- Spain:
  - Overall and primary balances include financial sector support measures estimated to be 0.3 percent of GDP for 2013, 0.1 percent of GDP for 2014, 0.1 percent of GDP for 2015, and 0.2 percent of GDP for 2016.
- Sweden:
  - Cyclically adjusted balances account for output gap.
- Switzerland:
  - Data submissions at the cantonal and commune levels may be subject to sizable revisions.
  - Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for extraordinary operations related to the banking sector.
- Türkiye:
  - Projections in the Fiscal Monitor are based on the IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenue and expenditure items included in the authorities’ headline balance.
- Turkmenistan:
  - IMF staff estimates and projections of the fiscal balance exclude receipts from domestic bond issuances and privatization operations, in line with GFSM 2014; authorities’ official estimates include these proceeds.
- Uruguay:
  - Starting in October 2018, public pension system transfers under a new law are recorded as revenues consistent with IMF methodology; transfers amounted to 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018, 1.0 percent of GDP in 2019, 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.3 percent of GDP in 2021, 0.1 percent of GDP in 2022, and zero percent thereafter.
  - Coverage of fiscal data changed from consolidated public sector to nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 World Economic Outlook; historical data were revised accordingly.
  - Under the nonfinancial public sector perimeter (which excludes the central bank), assets and liabilities where the counterpart is the central bank are not netted out in debt figures; capitalization bonds issued to the central bank are now part of nonfinancial public sector debt.
- Venezuela:
  - Fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government, social security funds, FOGADE, and a sample of public enterprises including PDVSA.
  - Data for 2018–22 are IMF staff estimates.

### Fiscal policy assumptions and projection practices
- Historical data and projections of key fiscal aggregates are in line with those of the April 2025 World Economic Outlook, unless noted otherwise.
- Short-term fiscal policy assumptions are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between national authorities and IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns.
- Medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented.
- When IMF staff has insufficient information to assess authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless indicated otherwise.
- Country-specific projection bases (selected):
  - Afghanistan: Data for 2021–23 reported for selected indicators; estimates and projections for 2024–30 are omitted due to unusually high uncertainty and paused IMF engagement.
  - Algeria: Projections for 2025–30 based on IMF staff estimates, 2024 intra-year budget outturns and the authorities’ 2025 budget law and medium-term budget plans.
  - Argentina: Projections based on budget outturn, budget plans, IMF-supported program targets for the federal government, announced fiscal measures, and IMF staff macroeconomic projections.
  - Australia: Projections based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, FY2025/26 Commonwealth budget and FY2024/25 state/territory budgets, and IMF staff estimates and projections.
  - Brazil: Fiscal projections reflect current and expected policies.
  - Canada: Projections use the Government of Canada’s 2024 Fall Economic Statement baseline forecasts and latest provincial budget updates, with IMF staff adjustments.
  - China: IMF staff fiscal projections incorporate the 2025 budget and estimates of off-budget financing.
  - Colombia: Projections based on the authorities’ 2025 Financing Plan and 2024–2035 Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, adjusted for IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions; the 2025 central government overall balance reflects the Financing Plan published in February.
  - Germany: Projections based on IMF staff macroeconomic framework and assume gradual increase in infrastructure and defense spending consistent with authorities’ intentions; assume additional fiscal room from reforms to Germany’s fiscal rule (the “debt brake”) in March 2025 is used.
  - Ghana: Government debt and interest rate projections based on a post-debt restructuring scenario.
  - Ireland: Fiscal projections based on Budget 2025.
  - Israel: Projections subject to significant risks due to unpredictability of the conflict; based on General Government and draft 2025 budget.
  - Italy: Projections informed by the government’s Medium-Term Fiscal–Structural Plan 2025–29 and updated national accounts; maturing postal bonds included in debt projections.
  - Japan: Projections reflect announced fiscal measures with adjustments for IMF staff assumptions.
  - Mexico: 2020 public sector borrowing requirements estimated by IMF staff adjust for statistical discrepancies between above-the-line and below-the-line numbers; 2025 projections informed by Pre-Criterios 2025 and assume continued compliance with the Federal Budget and Fiscal Responsibility Law.
  - New Zealand: Projections based on Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2024 and Budget Policy Statement 2025.
  - Uruguay: Coverage and historical data revised with October 2019 World Economic Outlook; see country-specific note above.
  - Numerous other countries’ projections are based on authorities’ budgets, medium-term plans, and IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions as specified in country notes.

### Country-level fiscal projection assumptions and special cases (2023 note)
- Fiscal projections for many countries are based on authorities’ budgets (2024, 2025) adjusted for IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and staff judgment. Examples:
  - 2023: Fiscal sector projections are based on the 2024 and 2025 budget.
  - Nigeria: Projections are based on macro framework reflecting the authorities’ recent reforms, as well as the 2025 budget.
  - Norway: Projections are based on the 2025 budget and subsequent ad hoc updates.
  - Philippines: Revenue projections reflect IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions and incorporate the updated data; expenditure projections are based on budgeted figures, institutional arrangements, and current data in each year.
  - Portugal: Projections for the current year are based on the authorities’ approved budget, adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s macroeconomic forecast; projections thereafter assume unchanged policies; projections for 2025 reflect information available in the 2025 budget proposal.
  - Romania: Fiscal projections reflect legislated changes up to the end of 2024 and measures announced in 2025; medium-term projections include assumptions about gradual implementation of measures and disbursement in the framework of the European Union’s Recovery and Resilience Facility.
  - Russian Federation: Fiscal rule suspended in March 2022; 2023–25 budget based on modified rule with benchmark oil and gas revenues fixed in rubles at Rub 8 trillion; Ministry of Finance proposed reverting to earlier fiscal rule from 2024 onward setting benchmark oil price at $60 a barrel; new rule effective in the 2025 budget allows higher oil and gas revenues to be spent while targeting a smaller primary structural deficit.
  - Saudi Arabia: IMF staff reference fiscal projections based primarily on government policies outlined in the 2025 budget and recent official announcements; export oil revenues based on World Economic Outlook database reference oil price assumptions and IMF staff understanding of OPEC+ and unilateral production adjustments.
  - Singapore: FY2024 projections based on revised figures through end-2024; FY2025 projections based on the initial budget of February 18, 2025.
  - South Africa: Fiscal assumptions informed by the 2024 budget, 2024 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, and information from the 2025 budget proposal; nontax revenue excludes transactions in financial assets and liabilities; Eskom debt relief treated as a capital transfer above-the-line.
- Projections omit or are conditional in high-uncertainty cases:
  - Venezuela: Projections for 2025–30 are omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty.
  - Sudan: Projections assume the conflict will end by end 2025 and re-engagement and reconstruction commence shortly thereafter.
  - Zambia: Government net and gross debt projections for 2025–30 are omitted due to debt restructuring.

### Definitions, coverage, and accounting conventions
- Fiscal data coverage and accounting practice are provided by economy and by metric in tabulated form (Tables B–D and related tables):
  - Coverage codes: CG = central government; GG = general government; LG = local governments; SG = state governments; SS = social security funds; TG = territorial governments; BCG = budgetary central government; NFPS = nonfinancial public sector; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporations; NMPC = nonmonetary financial public corporations; PS = public sector; BC G variants as used in tables.
  - Accounting practice codes: A = accrual; C = cash; Mixed = combination of accrual and cash accounting; CB = commitments based.
  - Debt valuation conventions: “Nominal”, “Face”, and “Current market” definitions are provided; “Nominal” refers to nominal values; “Face” refers to undiscounted principal; “Current market” refers to market valuation for debt securities.
- Notes on special coverage and adjustments are included for specific economies (examples from tables):
  - Poland: Data are based on ESA95 2004 and prior; data are based on ESA 2010 beginning in 2005 (accrual basis); projections begin in 2025 based on the 2025 budgets and subsequently announced fiscal measures.
  - Spain: Figures for 2021–28 reflect disbursements of grants and loans under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility.
  - Türkiye: Projections use IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenue and expenditure items included in the authorities’ headline balance.
  - United Kingdom: Fiscal projections are based on the October 2024 OBR forecast and January 2025 ONS public sector finance release; IMF staff overlay adjustments for differences in assumptions; data presented on a calendar year basis.
  - United States: Fiscal projections are based on the January 2025 Congressional Budget Office baseline adjusted for IMF staff policy and macro assumptions and incorporate the effects of the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
  - Uruguay: Historical fiscal and monetary data from Uruguayan authorities; projections based on authorities’ policies adjusted for IMF staff macro assumptions.

### Datasets and time coverage (tables and series included)
- The methodological appendix contains extensive country-level time series and projections for 2016–30 covering:
  - Overall fiscal balance (general government), primary balance, cyclically adjusted balance, cyclically adjusted primary balance (Tables A1–A4).
  - General government revenue and expenditure (Tables A5–A6).
  - General government gross debt and net debt (Tables A7–A8).
  - Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies and Low-Income Developing Countries: comparable tables for overall balance, primary balance, cyclically adjusted balances, revenue, expenditure, gross debt, and net debt (Tables A9–A21).
  - Structural fiscal indicators by country (pension spending change 2024–30, net present value of pension spending change 2024–50, health care spending change 2024–30, net present value of health care spending change 2024–50, gross financing need 2025, average term to maturity 2025, debt to average maturity 2025, projected interest rate–growth differential 2025–30, prepandemic overall balance 2012–19, projected overall balance 2025–30, nonresident holdings 2024, net financial worth 2021) for Advanced Economies (Table A23), Emerging Market and Middle–Income Economies (Table A24), and Low–Income Developing Countries (Table A25).
- Selected aggregate-level numeric highlights (as reported in the appendix):
  - Advanced Economies: average general government revenue (Table A5) shows "Average35.9" (percent of GDP).
  - Advanced Economies: average gross debt (Table A7) shows "Average1 105.4" (percent of GDP) — (table label shows "Average1 105.4..." reflecting the series of annual values across 2016–30).
  - Emerging Market and Middle–Income Economies: structural averages (Table A24) report "Average 0.9 55.8 0.4 22.8 4.9 6.9 11.4 –2.2 –3.1 –5.6 12.9" (corresponding to the labeled indicators in that table).
  - Low-Income Developing Countries: structural averages (Table A25) report "Average 0.2 10.3 0.1 6.5 6.2 4.2 –6.4 –3.3 –3.2 24.8" (corresponding to the labeled indicators in that table).
- Footnotes and methodological clarifications accompany the tables, including:
  - Pension projections methodology and net present value discounting (discount rate = 1 percent a year in excess of GDP growth for NPV calculations).
  - Health care spending projection drivers and excess cost growth assumptions.
  - Definition of gross financing need as projected overall deficit plus maturing government debt.
  - Data sources include IMF staff estimates and projections, national authorities, Bloomberg Finance L.P., and Joint External Debt Hub where indicated.

### Policy-relevant implications and usage guidance
- Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies and incorporate specific assumptions (budgets, announced measures, IMF staff macro forecasts); users should refer to country-specific notes in the tables for exact coverage and accounting conventions.
- Structural indicators (pension and health spending projections, gross financing needs, maturity profiles, projected interest rate–growth differentials, and net financial worth) are presented to inform assessments of medium- and long-term fiscal sustainability and financing risks.
- Special treatments and exclusions (for example, treatment of financial asset transactions, inclusion/exclusion of specific subsectors, and debt valuation choices) are explicitly recorded at the country level to ensure interpretability of cross-country comparisons.

*International Monetary Fund | April 2025*

### 2014. Municipalities’ primary balances follow

### 2014. Municipalities’ primary balances follow

### General methodological notes
- Accrual data for non-interest revenues are not available.
- Gross public debt includes the Treasury bills on the central bank’s balance sheet, including those not used under repurchase agreements.
- Net public debt consolidates nonfinancial public sector and central bank debt.
- The authorities’ definition of general government gross debt excludes government securities held by the central bank, except the stock of Treasury securities the central bank uses for monetary policy (those pledged as security reverse repurchase agreement operations).
- According to the authorities’ definition, gross debt amounted to 76.1 percent of GDP at the end of 2024.
- Fiscal balances may be inconsistent with reported debt where time series aligned with certain debt definitions are not published officially.

### Country-specific adjustments, coverage, and definitions (selected)
- Canada:
  - For cross-economy comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for economies that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees, defined-benefit pension plans.
  - Canada’s net debt corresponds to net financial liabilities as reported by Statistics Canada and includes equity and investment fund shares.
  - Statistics Canada recently changed methodology to value assets at market value instead of book value, which has decreased net debt.
- Chile:
  - Cyclically adjusted balances refer to the structural balance, which includes adjustments for output and commodity price developments.
- China:
  - Deficit and public debt numbers cover a narrower perimeter of the general government than IMF staff estimates in China Article IV reports.
  - Public debt data include central government debt as reported by the Ministry of Finance, explicit local government debt, and shares of contingent liabilities based on National Audit Office estimates.
  - IMF staff estimates exclude central government debt issued for China Railway.
  - Consolidated general government net borrowing excludes transfers to and from stabilization funds but includes state-administered funds, state-owned enterprise funds, social security contributions and expenses, and some off-budget local government spending.
  - Deficit numbers do not include some expenditure items, mostly infrastructure investment financed off budget through land sales and local government financing vehicles.
  - Fiscal balances are not consistent with reported debt because no time series aligned with the National Audit Office debt definition is published officially.
- Colombia:
  - Gross public debt refers to the combined public sector, including Ecopetrol and excluding Banco de la República’s outstanding external debt.
- Dominican Republic:
  - Public debt, debt service, and cyclically adjusted or structural balances are for the consolidated public sector (central government, rest of the nonfinancial public sector, and the central bank); remaining fiscal series are for the central government.
- Egypt, Ethiopia, Fiji, Hong Kong SAR, India, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Japan, Mexico, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Singapore, Thailand:
  - Data are on a fiscal year basis (country-specific notes indicate fiscal-year timing).
- Ethiopia:
  - Gross debt refers to the nonfinancial public sector, excluding Ethiopian Airlines.
- Greece:
  - General government gross debt follows the GFSM 2014 definition and includes the stock of deferred interest.
- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region:
  - Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for land revenue and investment income.
  - For cross-economy comparability, gross and net debt levels are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.
- Iceland:
  - Gross debt excludes insurance technical reserves (including pension liabilities) and other accounts payable.
- Ireland:
  - For 2015, if the conversion of the government’s remaining preference shares to ordinary shares in one bank is excluded, then the fiscal balance is −1.1 percent of GDP.
  - Cyclically adjusted balances reported in Tables A3 and A4 exclude financial sector support measures.
  - Ireland’s 2015 national accounts were revised due to restructuring and relocation of multinational companies, resulting in a level shift of nominal and real GDP.
- Mexico:
  - General government refers to the central government, social security funds, public enterprises, development banks, the national insurance corporation, and the National Infrastructure Fund, but excludes subnational governments.
- Norway:
  - Cyclically adjusted balances correspond to the cyclically adjusted non-oil overall or primary balance, expressed as a percentage of non-oil potential GDP.
- Peru:
  - Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for commodity price developments.
- Spain:
  - Overall and primary balances include financial sector support measures estimated to be 0.3 percent of GDP for 2013, 0.1 percent of GDP for 2014, 0.1 percent of GDP for 2015, and 0.2 percent of GDP for 2016.
- Sweden:
  - Cyclically adjusted balances account for output gap.
- Switzerland:
  - Data submissions at the cantonal and commune levels may be subject to sizable revisions.
  - Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for extraordinary operations related to the banking sector.
- Türkiye:
  - Projections in the Fiscal Monitor are based on the IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenue and expenditure items included in the authorities’ headline balance.
- Turkmenistan:
  - IMF staff estimates and projections of the fiscal balance exclude receipts from domestic bond issuances and privatization operations, in line with GFSM 2014; authorities’ official estimates include these proceeds.
- Uruguay:
  - Starting in October 2018, public pension system transfers under a new law are recorded as revenues consistent with IMF methodology; transfers amounted to 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018, 1.0 percent of GDP in 2019, 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.3 percent of GDP in 2021, 0.1 percent of GDP in 2022, and zero percent thereafter.
  - Coverage of fiscal data changed from consolidated public sector to nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 World Economic Outlook; historical data were revised accordingly.
  - Under the nonfinancial public sector perimeter (which excludes the central bank), assets and liabilities where the counterpart is the central bank are not netted out in debt figures; capitalization bonds issued to the central bank are now part of nonfinancial public sector debt.
- Venezuela:
  - Fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government, social security funds, FOGADE, and a sample of public enterprises including PDVSA.
  - Data for 2018–22 are IMF staff estimates.

### Fiscal policy assumptions and projection practices
- Historical data and projections of key fiscal aggregates are in line with those of the April 2025 World Economic Outlook, unless noted otherwise.
- Short-term fiscal policy assumptions are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between national authorities and IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns.
- Medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented.
- When IMF staff has insufficient information to assess authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless indicated otherwise.
- Country-specific projection bases (selected):
  - Afghanistan: Data for 2021–23 reported for selected indicators; estimates and projections for 2024–30 are omitted due to unusually high uncertainty and paused IMF engagement.
  - Algeria: Projections for 2025–30 based on IMF staff estimates, 2024 intra-year budget outturns and the authorities’ 2025 budget law and medium-term budget plans.
  - Argentina: Projections based on budget outturn, budget plans, IMF-supported program targets for the federal government, announced fiscal measures, and IMF staff macroeconomic projections.
  - Australia: Projections based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, FY2025/26 Commonwealth budget and FY2024/25 state/territory budgets, and IMF staff estimates and projections.
  - Brazil: Fiscal projections reflect current and expected policies.
  - Canada: Projections use the Government of Canada’s 2024 Fall Economic Statement baseline forecasts and latest provincial budget updates, with IMF staff adjustments.
  - China: IMF staff fiscal projections incorporate the 2025 budget and estimates of off-budget financing.
  - Colombia: Projections based on the authorities’ 2025 Financing Plan and 2024–2035 Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, adjusted for IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions; the 2025 central government overall balance reflects the Financing Plan published in February.
  - Germany: Projections based on IMF staff macroeconomic framework and assume gradual increase in infrastructure and defense spending consistent with authorities’ intentions; assume additional fiscal room from reforms to Germany’s fiscal rule (the “debt brake”) in March 2025 is used.
  - Ghana: Government debt and interest rate projections based on a post-debt restructuring scenario.
  - Ireland: Fiscal projections based on Budget 2025.
  - Israel: Projections subject to significant risks due to unpredictability of the conflict; based on General Government and draft 2025 budget.
  - Italy: Projections informed by the government’s Medium-Term Fiscal–Structural Plan 2025–29 and updated national accounts; maturing postal bonds included in debt projections.
  - Japan: Projections reflect announced fiscal measures with adjustments for IMF staff assumptions.
  - Mexico: 2020 public sector borrowing requirements estimated by IMF staff adjust for statistical discrepancies between above-the-line and below-the-line numbers; 2025 projections informed by Pre-Criterios 2025 and assume continued compliance with the Federal Budget and Fiscal Responsibility Law.
  - New Zealand: Projections based on Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2024 and Budget Policy Statement 2025.
  - Uruguay: Coverage and historical data revised with October 2019 World Economic Outlook; see country-specific note above.
  - Numerous other countries’ projections are based on authorities’ budgets, medium-term plans, and IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions as specified in country notes.

*International Monetary Fund | April 2025*

### 2023. Fiscal sector projections are based on the

### msa - 2023. Fiscal sector projections are based on the

### Country-level fiscal projection assumptions and special cases
- Fiscal projections for many countries are based on authorities’ budgets (2024, 2025) adjusted for IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and staff judgment. Examples:
  - 2023: Fiscal sector projections are based on the 2024 and 2025 budget.
  - Nigeria: Projections are based on macro framework reflecting the authorities’ recent reforms, as well as the 2025 budget.
  - Norway: Projections are based on the 2025 budget and subsequent ad hoc updates.
  - Philippines: Revenue projections reflect IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions and incorporate the updated data; expenditure projections are based on budgeted figures, institutional arrangements, and current data in each year.
  - Portugal: Projections for the current year are based on the authorities’ approved budget, adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s macroeconomic forecast; projections thereafter assume unchanged policies; projections for 2025 reflect information available in the 2025 budget proposal.
  - Romania: Fiscal projections reflect legislated changes up to the end of 2024 and measures announced in 2025; medium-term projections include assumptions about gradual implementation of measures and disbursement in the framework of the European Union’s Recovery and Resilience Facility.
  - Russian Federation: Fiscal rule suspended in March 2022; 2023–25 budget based on modified rule with benchmark oil and gas revenues fixed in rubles at Rub 8 trillion; Ministry of Finance proposed reverting to earlier fiscal rule from 2024 onward setting benchmark oil price at $60 a barrel; new rule effective in the 2025 budget allows higher oil and gas revenues to be spent while targeting a smaller primary structural deficit.
  - Saudi Arabia: IMF staff reference fiscal projections based primarily on government policies outlined in the 2025 budget and recent official announcements; export oil revenues based on World Economic Outlook database reference oil price assumptions and IMF staff understanding of OPEC+ and unilateral production adjustments.
  - Singapore: FY2024 projections based on revised figures through end-2024; FY2025 projections based on the initial budget of February 18, 2025.
  - South Africa: Fiscal assumptions informed by the 2024 budget, 2024 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, and information from the 2025 budget proposal; nontax revenue excludes transactions in financial assets and liabilities; Eskom debt relief treated as a capital transfer above-the-line.
- Projections omit or are conditional in high-uncertainty cases:
  - Venezuela: Projections for 2025–30 are omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty.
  - Sudan: Projections assume the conflict will end by end 2025 and re-engagement and reconstruction commence shortly thereafter.
  - Zambia: Government net and gross debt projections for 2025–30 are omitted due to debt restructuring.

### Definitions, coverage, and accounting conventions
- Fiscal data coverage and accounting practice are provided by economy and by metric in tabulated form (Tables B–D and related tables):
  - Coverage codes: CG = central government; GG = general government; LG = local governments; SG = state governments; SS = social security funds; TG = territorial governments; BCG = budgetary central government; NFPS = nonfinancial public sector; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporations; NMPC = nonmonetary financial public corporations; PS = public sector; BC G variants as used in tables.
  - Accounting practice codes: A = accrual; C = cash; Mixed = combination of accrual and cash accounting; CB = commitments based.
  - Debt valuation conventions: “Nominal”, “Face”, and “Current market” definitions are provided; “Nominal” refers to nominal values; “Face” refers to undiscounted principal; “Current market” refers to market valuation for debt securities.
- Notes on special coverage and adjustments are included for specific economies (examples from tables):
  - Poland: Data are based on ESA95 2004 and prior; data are based on ESA 2010 beginning in 2005 (accrual basis); projections begin in 2025 based on the 2025 budgets and subsequently announced fiscal measures.
  - Spain: Figures for 2021–28 reflect disbursements of grants and loans under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility.
  - Türkiye: Projections use IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenue and expenditure items included in the authorities’ headline balance.
  - United Kingdom: Fiscal projections are based on the October 2024 OBR forecast and January 2025 ONS public sector finance release; IMF staff overlay adjustments for differences in assumptions; data presented on a calendar year basis.
  - United States: Fiscal projections are based on the January 2025 Congressional Budget Office baseline adjusted for IMF staff policy and macro assumptions and incorporate the effects of the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
  - Uruguay: Historical fiscal and monetary data from Uruguayan authorities; projections based on authorities’ policies adjusted for IMF staff macro assumptions.

### Datasets and time coverage (tables and series included)
- The methodological appendix contains extensive country-level time series and projections for 2016–30 covering:
  - Overall fiscal balance (general government), primary balance, cyclically adjusted balance, cyclically adjusted primary balance (Tables A1–A4).
  - General government revenue and expenditure (Tables A5–A6).
  - General government gross debt and net debt (Tables A7–A8).
  - Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies and Low-Income Developing Countries: comparable tables for overall balance, primary balance, cyclically adjusted balances, revenue, expenditure, gross debt, and net debt (Tables A9–A21).
  - Structural fiscal indicators by country (pension spending change 2024–30, net present value of pension spending change 2024–50, health care spending change 2024–30, net present value of health care spending change 2024–50, gross financing need 2025, average term to maturity 2025, debt to average maturity 2025, projected interest rate–growth differential 2025–30, prepandemic overall balance 2012–19, projected overall balance 2025–30, nonresident holdings 2024, net financial worth 2021) for Advanced Economies (Table A23), Emerging Market and Middle–Income Economies (Table A24), and Low–Income Developing Countries (Table A25).
- Selected aggregate-level numeric highlights (as reported in the appendix):
  - Advanced Economies: average general government revenue (Table A5) shows "Average35.9" (percent of GDP).
  - Advanced Economies: average gross debt (Table A7) shows "Average1 105.4" (percent of GDP) — (table label shows "Average1 105.4..." reflecting the series of annual values across 2016–30).
  - Emerging Market and Middle–Income Economies: structural averages (Table A24) report "Average 0.9 55.8 0.4 22.8 4.9 6.9 11.4 –2.2 –3.1 –5.6 12.9" (corresponding to the labeled indicators in that table).
  - Low-Income Developing Countries: structural averages (Table A25) report "Average 0.2 10.3 0.1 6.5 6.2 4.2 –6.4 –3.3 –3.2 24.8" (corresponding to the labeled indicators in that table).
- Footnotes and methodological clarifications accompany the tables, including:
  - Pension projections methodology and net present value discounting (discount rate = 1 percent a year in excess of GDP growth for NPV calculations).
  - Health care spending projection drivers and excess cost growth assumptions.
  - Definition of gross financing need as projected overall deficit plus maturing government debt.
  - Data sources include IMF staff estimates and projections, national authorities, Bloomberg Finance L.P., and Joint External Debt Hub where indicated.

### Policy-relevant implications and usage guidance (from methodological notes)
- Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies and incorporate specific assumptions (budgets, announced measures, IMF staff macro forecasts); users should refer to country-specific notes in the tables for exact coverage and accounting conventions.
- Structural indicators (pension and health spending projections, gross financing needs, maturity profiles, projected interest rate–growth differentials, and net financial worth) are presented to inform assessments of medium- and long-term fiscal sustainability and financing risks.
- Special treatments and exclusions (for example, treatment of financial asset transactions, inclusion/exclusion of specific subsectors, and debt valuation choices) are explicitly recorded at the country level to ensure interpretability of cross-country comparisons.

*International Monetary Fund | April 2025*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/msa.pdf_