## Mid-Cycle Slowdown and Financial Stability Risks (Content unit: 0611a)

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**Canonical URL:** [Mid-Cycle Slowdown and Financial Stability Risks (Content unit: 0611a)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fmu/0611a.pdf)

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### Mid-cycle macroeconomic signals and market sentiment
- Figure 1: "Mid-Cycle Slowdown"
  - Time series axes include Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11.
  - Indicators shown include: 10-year TIPS, Equity Prices, G-10 Economic Surprise Index, Commodities.

### Contagion and sovereign stress in the Euro-area periphery
- Figure 2: "Contagion Risks Are Rising in the Euro Area Periphery"
  - Sovereign CDS Spreads (in basis points) and Financial and Sovereign CDS Spreads (in basis points) are plotted.
  - Countries identified (legend): Greece (RHS), Ireland, Italy, Belgium, Spain, Portugal.
  - Time window depicted includes Oct-10 through Jun-11.

### Ratings outlooks in advanced economies
- Figure 3: "The Ratings Outlooks in Some Advanced Economies Have Been Downgraded"
  - Sources: Fitch, Moody’s; and Standard & Poor’s.
  - Notes: When there were downgrades by both Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, the rating shown is S&P’s. Number of arrows correspond to the number of notches downgraded and, whenever there were downgrades from more than one agency, the biggest downgrade is shown.
  - Timeline markers: Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11.
  - Ratings mentioned in the legend include: AA+, Aa2, A3/BBB-, B1/BB-, AAA, Baa1/BBB-, Baa3/BBB+, A+, AA-, B, Caa1/CCC, BB+, AA-, A+, AA+, BEL PRT GRC JPN ESP USA ITA.

### Corporate credit markets: spreads, issuance, and leverage
- Figure 4: "High-Yield Debt Issuance Has Surged, Spreads Have Dropped and Leverage Has Increased"
  - Panels include:
    - US High-Yield / Leveraged Loans Yields (in percent) with time series Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11.
    - Yield and Yield Spread series.
    - Corporate High-Yield Bonds and Leveraged Loans issuance (in billions of US dollars, 12-month moving average).
  - Leveraged Buyout Earnings Multiples series (values preserved exactly): 6.0, 6.6, 7.1, 7.3, 8.4, 8.4, 9.7, 9.1, 7.7, 8.5.
  - Sources: Barclays Capital; Bloomberg, L.P.; Dealogic; S&P/LCD; and IMF staff estimates.

### Search for yield and spillovers to emerging markets
- Figure 5: "The Search for YieldHas Spilled Over into EM Corporate Debt"
  - Emerging Market External Bond Issuance (in billions of US dollars, 12-month moving average) by region: Latin America, EMEA, Asia.
  - Time series includes Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11.
  - Corporate and Sovereign Bond Spreads panel (in basis points) over Jul-10 through Jun-11 highlights:
    - A horizontal reference at 250 basis points and 150 basis points.
    - Series labeled "Corporate" and "Sovereign".

### Bank capitalization and resilience
- Figure 6: "BankCapitalization Is Improving, but Unevenly"
  - Selected Bank Core Tier 1 Capital Ratios (in percent) plotted for End 2009, End 2010, Q1 2011.
  - Vertical axis ticks shown: 4 6 8 10 12 14 16.
  - Sources: Bankscope; SNL Financial; and IMF staff estimates.

### Key observable numeric markers from figures and captions
- Time windows prominently shown: Oct-10 through Jun-11; Jul-10 through Jun-11; Jan-08 through May-11; End 2009, End 2010, Q1 2011.
- Reference spread thresholds in EM spreads panel: 250 basis points; 150 basis points.
- Leveraged buyout earnings multiples (series): 6.0; 6.6; 7.1; 7.3; 8.4; 8.4; 9.7; 9.1; 7.7; 8.5.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fmu/0611a.pdf_