## Figure 1-14. Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies

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**Canonical URL:** [Figure 1-14. Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/april/chapter-1/figure1-14.pdf)

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### 1. Nonresident Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies (Panel 1)
- Unit: (Billions of U.S. dollars).
- Key observation: "Capital flows to emerging market economies have been subdued in recent years."
- Time markers and axis ticks shown: –5, 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, –2–10 1 2 3 4 (visual axis labels present).

### 2. Emerging Market Quarterly Portfolio Flows by Investor Type, 2010–16 (Panel 2)
- Unit: (Billions of U.S. dollars).
- Key observation: "Retail investors represent a small source of financing but are a large source of volatility."
- Sample and calculation details:
  - Standard deviations are calculated as the average eight-quarter rolling standard deviation over the 2010–16 period.
  - Country sample for IIF data encompasses 25 emerging market economies (used in panels 1, 2, and 3).
  - Country sample for EPFR data encompasses about 85 emerging and developing economies (used in panels 2 and 3).
- Investor flow categories indicated: Total retail flows; Retail debt; Institutional debt; Retail equity; Institutional equity; Total institutional flows; Retail flows; Institutional flows.
- Visual markers include "Source of volatility" and "Source of financing" annotations.

### 3. Emerging Market Portfolio Flows by Investor Type (Panel 3)
- Unit: (Billions of U.S. dollars, three-month moving average).
- Key observation: "Most capital flow reversals are driven by retail investors."
- Comparative visual elements: Mean line; event annotations including "Global financial crisis", "Taper tantrum", "Renminbi shock", "U.S. election".
- Time series axis ranges include years and quarterly markers: 2012 13 14 15 16 and 2008 13 14 09 10 11 12 15 16 17 (visual axis labels present).

### 4. Concentration of Foreign Emerging Market Bond Holdings of Largest Fund Family Owner (Panel 4)
- Unit: (Percent of total bonds outstanding).
- Key observation: "Individual fund families often own large portions of emerging market bonds in selected markets."
- Visual scale markers include: –150, –100, –50, 0, 50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 350, 400, 450 (visual axis ticks present).

### 5. Emerging Market Equity Returns versus Gross Manufacturing Exports (Panel 5)
- Key observation: "Equities of manufacturing exporters with high U.S. trade exposure have not performed as well as other emerging market equities ..."
- Regression statistic shown: R 2 = 0.32
- Country examples labeled in figure (ISO codes visible): ARE, COL, ARG, SAU, PER, BRA, KAZ, RUS, IDN, IND, JOR, CHL, ZAF, TUR, CHN, UKR, BHR, MEX, BGR, POL, THA, MYS, HUN, VNM.
- Visual axis label: "Equity market return since Nov. 8, 2016 (percent)".

### 6. Emerging Market Exchange Rates (Panel 6)
- Unit and indexing: (Median and 25th–75th percentiles, Index 100 = Nov. 1, 2016).
- Key observation: "... while currencies of manufacturing exporters have underperformed those of commodity exporters."
- Commodity exporting countries listed: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Peru, Russia, and South Africa.
- Manufacturing exporting countries listed: Bulgaria, China, Hungary, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Taiwan Province of China, Thailand, and Vietnam.
- Visual axis markers include dates: Mar. 08 Mar. 01; Feb. 22 Feb. 15 Feb. 08 Feb. 01; Jan. 25 Jan. 18 Jan. 11 Jan. 04; Dec. 28 Dec. 21 Dec. 14 Dec. 07; Nov. 30 Nov. 23 Nov. 16 Nov. 09 Nov. 02 and values –40, –30, –20, –10, 0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50.

### Additional notes and data characteristics
- Panel notes: Panels 2 and 3 show proxies for portfolio flows by institutional and retail investors, estimated using IIF portfolio flows data and EPFR data on flows into investment funds dedicated to emerging markets.
  - IIF data capture flows by all types of investors, but fund flows are predominantly driven by retail investors.
  - Other differences between the two datasets are discussed in Koepke and Mohammed 2014 (reference in source).
- Panel 2 standard deviation methodology reiterated: average eight-quarter rolling standard deviation over the 2010–16 period.
- Labels in panel 5 use International Organization for Standardization (ISO) country codes.
- Acronyms: EM = emerging market; FDI = foreign direct investment.

*Sources: Bloomberg L.P.; EPFR Global; Institute of International Finance (IIF); UN Comtrade; and IMF staff calculations.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/april/chapter-1/figure1-14.pdf_