## Figure 3.4. Probability Distributions of One-Year-Ahead GDP Growth

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 3.4. Probability Distributions of One-Year-Ahead GDP Growth](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/april/figure3-4.pdf)

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- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/april/figure3-4.pdf.md)
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### Main finding
- Financial conditions improve the ability to predict future economic downturns.

### Data and methodology
- Panel of 43 countries.
- Conditional probability distributions of one-year-ahead real GDP growth estimated using quantile regressions.
- Distributions shown:
  - Unconditional historical distribution
  - Distribution conditional on GDP (forecasting model using growth)
  - Distribution conditional on GDP and FCI (forecasting model using growth and financial conditions)
- Realized value shown (average actual GDP growth).
- FCI = financial conditions index.

### Illustrated periods / realizations
- 1. 2006:Q2
- 2. 2008:Q3

### Axis and probability scale (as displayed)
- Probability scale markers: 0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8
- GDP growth (percent) axis markers shown as: –4–202468 and –8–327

*Source: IMF staff estimates.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/april/figure3-4.pdf_