## figure3-4d — Probability Distributions of One-Year-Ahead GDP Growth (dataset overview)

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [figure3-4d — Probability Distributions of One-Year-Ahead GDP Growth (dataset overview)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/april/figure3-4d.csv)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/april/figure3-4d.csv.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/april/figure3-4d.csv.json)

---

### Dataset description
- Worksheet name: "csv"
- Row count: 19
- Column count: 129
- Series label present: "Figure 3.4. Probability Distributions of One-Year-Ahead GDP Growth"
- Period label present: "2006:Q2"
- Main series included: Unconditional historical distribution (grid of GDP growth points and their probabilities), Distribution conditional on GDP, Distribution conditional on GDP and FCI, Realized value.

### Unconditional historical distribution — GDP growth points and probabilities
- GDP growth points (percent): -3.00, -2.88, -2.75, -2.63, -2.50, -2.38, -2.25, -2.13, -2.00, -1.88, -1.75, -1.63, -1.50, -1.38, -1.25, -1.13, -1.00, -0.88, -0.75, -0.63, -0.50, -0.38, -0.25, -0.13, 0.00, 0.13, 0.25, 0.38, 0.50, 0.63, 0.75, 0.88, 1.00, 1.13, 1.25, 1.38, 1.50, 1.63, 1.75, 1.88, 2.00, 2.13, 2.25, 2.38, 2.50, 2.63, 2.75, 2.88, 3.00, 3.13, 3.25, 3.38, 3.50, 3.63, 3.75, 3.88, 4.00, 4.13, 4.25, 4.38, 4.50, 4.63, 4.75, 4.88, 5.00, 5.13, 5.25, 5.38, 5.50, 5.63, 5.75, 5.88, 6.00, 6.13, 6.25, 6.38, 6.50, 6.63, 6.75, 6.88, 7.00, 7.13, 7.25, 7.38, 7.50, 7.63, 7.75, 7.88
- Corresponding probabilities (unconditional historical distribution): 0.000004, 0.000006, 0.000009, 0.000013, 0.000019, 0.000028, 0.000041, 0.000059, 0.000085, 0.000121, 0.000170, 0.000239, 0.000332, 0.000458, 0.000626, 0.000851, 0.001148, 0.001537, 0.002041, 0.002691, 0.003520, 0.004569, 0.005886, 0.007523, 0.009542, 0.012009, 0.014996, 0.018581, 0.022843, 0.027862, 0.033717, 0.040482, 0.048221, 0.056983, 0.066803, 0.077692, 0.089634, 0.102583, 0.116460, 0.131149, 0.146497, 0.162316, 0.178382, 0.194442, 0.210217, 0.225411, 0.239719, 0.252836, 0.264472, 0.274355, 0.282248, 0.287954, 0.291329, 0.292283, 0.290786, 0.286871, 0.280631, 0.272215, 0.261823, 0.249699, 0.236120, 0.221384, 0.205803, 0.189689, 0.173345, 0.157056, 0.141079, 0.125641, 0.110931, 0.097102, 0.084264, 0.072493, 0.061827, 0.052275, 0.043816, 0.036407, 0.029988, 0.024487, 0.019820, 0.015903, 0.012649, 0.009973, 0.007794, 0.006038, 0.004637, 0.003530, 0.002663, 0.001992

### Distribution conditional on GDP — probabilities (aligned with same GDP growth points)
- Probabilities (distribution conditional on GDP): 0.000167, 0.000212, 0.000268, 0.000338, 0.000425, 0.000533, 0.000664, 0.000826, 0.001022, 0.001261, 0.001549, 0.001896, 0.002313, 0.002810, 0.003401, 0.004101, 0.004927, 0.005896, 0.007030, 0.008350, 0.009881, 0.011649, 0.013681, 0.016007, 0.018659, 0.021668, 0.025068, 0.028893, 0.033176, 0.037950, 0.043249, 0.049102, 0.055537, 0.062580, 0.070252, 0.078567, 0.087536, 0.097163, 0.107443, 0.118365, 0.129906, 0.142038, 0.154718, 0.167897, 0.181514, 0.195498, 0.209768, 0.224234, 0.238797, 0.253349, 0.267779, 0.281966, 0.295789, 0.309120, 0.321821, 0.333719, 0.344536, 0.353723, 0.360178, 0.361905, 0.355890, 0.338618, 0.307473, 0.262592, 0.208011, 0.150967, 0.099357, 0.058809, 0.031102, 0.014622, 0.006087, 0.002236, 0.000724, 0.000206, 0.000051, 0.000011, 0.000002, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000

### Distribution conditional on GDP and FCI — probabilities (aligned with same GDP growth points)
- Probabilities (distribution conditional on GDP and FCI): 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000001, 0.000001, 0.000002, 0.000004, 0.000007, 0.000012, 0.000021, 0.000037, 0.000063, 0.000106, 0.000177, 0.000289, 0.000466, 0.000740, 0.001159, 0.001786, 0.002713, 0.004061, 0.005987, 0.008697, 0.012447, 0.017550, 0.024379, 0.033365, 0.044989, 0.059765, 0.078220, 0.100860, 0.128131, 0.160370, 0.197752, 0.240243, 0.287550, 0.339084, 0.393942, 0.450909, 0.508485, 0.564935, 0.618359, 0.666586, 0.705337, 0.719394, 0.668946, 0.513966, 0.292488, 0.112975, 0.027951, 0.004274, 0.000395, 0.000022, 0.000001, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000

### Realized value
- Realized value (repeated across grid): 6.011888

*Dataset: figure3-4d (CSV worksheet "csv")*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/april/figure3-4d.csv_