## Figure 1.1.1. Financial and Economic Cycles

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 1.1.1. Financial and Economic Cycles](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/boxfigure1-1-1.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/boxfigure1-1-1.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/boxfigure1-1-1.pdf.json)

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### Overview
- US Cycles: Current versus Historical since 1970
- Asset and Credit Cycles and Output Gap
- United States, Euro area, Japan
- Maximum of past cycles; Minimum of past cycles; Current cycle
- Quarters from start of cycle

### Key observations and findings
- "The US financial expansion and output gap are noteworthy by historical standards ..."
- "... as a cumulative gap grows between financial and economic cycles across major advanced economies."

### Chart elements and numeric scales (as presented)
- Horizontal axis: Quarters from start of cycle (labels shown: 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40)
- Vertical axes (multiple panels):
  - Panels with scale: –8, –6, –4, –2, 0, 2, 4, 6
  - Panels with scale: –0.04, –0.03, –0.02, –0.01, 0.00, 0.01, 0.02, 0.03, 0.04
  - Panels with scale: –0.10, –0.08, –0.06, –0.04, –0.02, 0.00, 0.02, 0.04, 0.06, 0.08, 0.10
  - Panels with scale: –0.04, –0.02, 0.00, 0.02, 0.04, 0.06, 0.08, 0.10
- Time marker labeling example: 2009 11 13 15 17 :Q1 (presented as "200911131517:Q1" and variants)

### Panel descriptions (as labeled)
1. Asset Cycle (Quarterly index, deviation of filtered real growth from its historical average)
2. Credit Cycle (Quarterly index, deviation of filtered real growth from its historical average)
3. Output Gap (Percentage points)
4. Asset Cycle (Quarterly index, deviation of filtered real growth from its historical average)
5. Credit Cycle (Quarterly index, deviation of filtered real growth from its historical average)
6. Output Gap (Percentage points)

### Data and methodology notes
- Sources: Bank for International Settlements; IMF, World Economic Outlook database; national sources; and IMF staff estimates.
- Note: Cycles are dated using National Bureau of Economic Research recession dates. Cycles capture low-frequency movements around long-term rates. Real asset price cycles combine momentum common to equity, corporate bond, and house price indices—deflated using national consumer price indices. The credit cycle is real total nonfinancial sector credit.
- For more information on the underlying methodology, see Schüler, Hiebert, and Peltonen 2017.

*Figure 1.1.1. Financial and Economic Cycles — Sources: Bank for International Settlements; IMF, World Economic Outlook database; national sources; and IMF staff estimates.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/boxfigure1-1-1.pdf_