## Figure 1.13. Central Bank Balance Sheets and the Sovereign Sector

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 1.13. Central Bank Balance Sheets and the Sovereign Sector](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-13.pdf)

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### Overview
- Central bank balance sheets have expanded because of large-scale asset purchases.
- These purchases have led domestic and foreign central banks to capture a sizable share of sovereign debt.
- Large official purchases have outstripped net issuance in the euro area and Japan.
- Going forward, the private sector will need to absorb additional supply.

### Panel 1 — Change in Central Bank Balance Sheet Assets
- Measurement: Billions of US dollars, 12-month rolling sum (left scale); percent of GDP (right scale).
- Time references visible: 2000–2017 series and monthly markers including Jan. 07, Jan. 09, Jan. 11, Jan. 13, Jan. 15, Jan. 17, and Jan. 2005.
- Aggregation label: FedECBBOJBOETotalStock.

### Panel 2 — Advanced Economy Sovereign Bond Holdings by Investor Type
- Measurement: Percent.
- Investor categories shown: Domestic central bank; Foreign official sector; Domestic bank; Domestic nonbank; Foreign bank; Foreign nonbank; Private investors.
- Country groups indicated: Euro area—private; Japan—private; United Kingdom—private; United States—private; G4—official.
- Note: Panels 2–4 exclude agency debt securities.

### Panel 3 — Government Bond Issuance and Official Demand
- Measurement: Billions of US dollars, 12-month moving sum.
- Finding: Large official purchases have outstripped net issuance in the euro area and Japan.
- Country series shown: United States; Euro Area; Japan.
- Forecast component: Net issuance and Sovereign bond purchases labeled; "Forecast" indicated.

### Panel 4 — Change in Stock of Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt, by Region of Issuance and Holder
- Measurement: Trillions of US dollars, cumulative change since beginning of 2010.
- Finding: Aggregate change highlights that, despite central bank purchases to date, additional absorption by the private sector will be necessary going forward.
- Conversion: Debt stocks are converted to US dollars using end of quarter exchange rates.

### Key assumptions and forecast rules (exact phrasing preserved)
- ECB net purchases are assumed to decline to a reduced pace and the asset purchase program extended to June 2018.
- Fed net purchases are assumed to follow the path outlined by the Fed starting in 2017:Q4.
- BOJ net purchases are assumed to equal forecast net supply.
- BOE net purchases are assumed to equal zero from 2017:Q1 onward.
- Forecasts use forecasted central government net lending/borrowing.
- In panel 4, ECB net purchases are assumed to decline to a reduced pace and the asset purchase program extended to June 2018; Fed net purchases are assumed to follow the path outlined by the Fed starting in 2017:Q4; BOJ net purchases are assumed to equal forecast net supply; BOE net purchases are assumed to equal zero from 2017:Q1 onward.

### Coverage notes
- The following member countries of the euro area are included: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain.
- Until end-2016, debt absorbed by central banks and foreign and supranational institutions; from 2017 onward, aggregated central bank purchases.
- Panels 2–4 exclude agency debt securities.

*Sources: Bank of England; Bank of Japan; European Central Bank; Federal Reserve; government sources; Morgan Stanley; World Bank; Arslanalp and Tsuda 2012, updated; and IMF staff estimates.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-13.pdf_