## Figure 1.15. Emerging Market Economy Capital Flows

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 1.15. Emerging Market Economy Capital Flows](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-15.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-15.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-15.pdf.json)

---

### Key findings
- A large portion of portfolio flows has been driven by US monetary policy accommodation.
- Estimates point to a substantial reduction in portfolio flows due to US monetary policy normalization.
- Some countries are likely to experience reduced inflows of "1–1.5 percent of annual GDP over the next two years."
- "This could prove challenging for those with large external financing needs."
- Data labels in the figure use International Organization for Standardization (ISO) country codes. EM = emerging market; Fed = Federal Reserve; QE = quantitative easing.

### 1. Model Estimates: Cumulative Contributions to Emerging Market Portfolio Flows (Billions of US dollars)
- Contributions decomposed by:
  - Portfolio balance (Fed QE)
  - Fed policy expectations
  - Flows impact of Fed balance sheet reduction
  - Flows impact of Fed policy expectations
  - Fed balance sheet reduction (right scale)
- Time labels shown: Oct. 2017; Apr. 18; Oct. 18; Apr. 19; Oct. 19
- Numeric axis markers visible in figure: –1.0; –0.5; 0.0; –10; 0; 10; 20; 30; 40; –100; 0; 100; 200; 300; 400; 2010 12 14 16; –80; –60; –40; –20; 0; –1,350; –1,200; –1,050; –900; –750; –600; –450; –300; –150; 0

### 2. Estimated Cumulative Monthly Contributions to Emerging Market Portfolio Flows, 2017–19 (Billions of US dollars)
- The figure indicates estimated cumulative monthly contributions across the 2017–19 period with visible time ticks: Oct. 2017; Apr. 18; Oct. 18; Apr. 19; Oct. 19.
- Series/components shown: Portfolio balance (Fed QE); Fed policy expectations; Global risk appetite; EM domestic factors.

### 3. Estimated Cumulative Impact of External Factors on Portfolio Flows (Percent of GDP)
- Estimates imply reduced inflows for some countries of "1–1.5 percent" of annual GDP over the next two years.

### 4. External Financing Requirements (Percent of GDP)
- Three measures shown (2018–20 average):
  - Short-term debt on remaining maturity basis (2018–20 average)
  - Current account deficit (2018–20 average)
  - External financing requirement (2018–20 average)
- A threshold highlighted: "15 percent external financing requirement threshold"

### Countries shown (ISO codes displayed in figure)
- MYS TUR POL ZAF CHL MEX IND COL BRA CHN IDN RUS

### Sources and notes
- Sources: Federal Reserve; and IMF staff estimates.
- Note: Data labels in the figure use International Organization for Standardization (ISO) country codes. EM = emerging market; Fed = Federal Reserve; QE = quantitative easing.

*Figure 1.15. Emerging Market Economy Capital Flows*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-15.pdf_