## Figure 1.31. Emerging Market Economy External Vulnerabilities and Corporate Leverage

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**Canonical URL:** [Figure 1.31. Emerging Market Economy External Vulnerabilities and Corporate Leverage](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-31.pdf)

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### 1. Estimated Cumulative Reduction in Emerging Market Portfolio Flows (Billions of US dollars)
- Scenario and baseline structure shown: "Baseline", "Scenario", "Additional impact under scenario", "Impact under baseline", "Net impact under scenario".
- Percentile markers indicated: "25th percentile", "50th percentile", "75th percentile", "Peak", "Current: below peak".
- Time labels present: "2013", "2017", "2019".
- Key caption: "US monetary normalization and a global asset market correction would increase capital outflow pressures."

### 2. Estimated Peak Reduction in Emerging Market Portfolio Flows (Percent of GDP, reduction over four quarters)
- Emphasized point: "Countries that previously received large inflows may see sizable outflows."
- Numeric values shown: "1.0", "1.5", "2.0", "2.5", "3.0", "3.5", "4.0", "4.5", "5.0", "5.5", "6.0".

### 3. Current Account Balances (Percent of GDP)
- Caption: "Outflows could be challenging for countries with large current account deficits ..."
- Country order in the visual: Turkey, South Africa, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, India, Poland, Russia, China, Malaysia.
- Horizontal axis values include negative and positive markers: "–7", "–6", "–5", "–4", "–3", "–2", "–1", "0", "1", "2", "3", "4".

### 4. Corporate Leverage (Total debt to EBITDA, multiple)
- Caption: "... and put pressure on those with high levels of corporate leverage."
- Country labels (ISO codes in figure data labels): ARG, IND, MEX, ZAF, TUR, ARG, BRA, CHN, IDN, RUS, BRA, CHN, IDN, RUS.
- Country list used in the plot: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey, Poland, Colombia, Malaysia, Chile, Mexico, South Africa.
- Vertical axis values and time series markers include: "–300", "–200", "–100", "0", "100", and a multi-year series labeled "20171819202122".
- Additional vertical scale shown: "–2.5", "–2.0", "–1.5", "–1.0", "–0.5", "0.0".
- Note in figure: "Data labels in the figure use International Organization for Standardization (ISO) country codes. EBITDA = earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization."
- Bottom time series span markers: "200304050607080910111213141516".

*Sources: Bank of America Merrill Lynch; Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Capital IQ; Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-31.pdf_