## boxfigure2-1-1

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [boxfigure2-1-1](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/boxfigure2-1-1.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/boxfigure2-1-1.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/boxfigure2-1-1.pdf.json)

---

### Effect of Household Debt on Long-Term per Capita GDP Growth
- Figure shows nonlinear effect of household debt on long-term per capita GDP growth at various levels of household debt, based on a long-term panel regression.
- Uses the Arellano-Bover general method of moments estimator of five-year average per capita GDP growth on:
  - household debt to GDP (HHD)
  - the squared ratio of household debt to GDP (HHD2)
  - initial per capita GDP
  - secondary education enrollment
  - dummies for banking crises (Crisis)
  - emerging market economies’ household debt-to-GDP ratio (EME × HHD)
- Annotation: 95 percent confidence bound around the turning point.

### Panel Regression Results (Per Capita GDP Growth, 1970–2010)
- Regression specification columns correspond to (1), (2), (3) for Per Capita GDP Growth.
- Coefficients and Z-statistics (in parentheses) as reported:
  - HHD
    - Column (1): 0.051* (1.726)
    - Column (2): 0.007 (0.346)
    - Column (3): 0.021 (0.762)
  - HHD2
    - Column (1): –0.048** (–1.980)
    - Column (2): –0.024 (–1.494)
    - Column (3): –0.051** (–2.057)
  - Crisis
    - Column (2): –0.017*** (–6.319)
    - Column (3): –0.015*** (–4.688)
  - EME × HHD
    - Column (3): –0.000 (–0.015)
  - Initial per capita GDP
    - Column (1): 0.028 (1.117)
    - Column (2): 0.018* (1.818)
    - Column (3): 0.017 (1.576)
  - Education
    - Column (1): –0.012** (–1.973)
    - Column (2): –0.004 (–1.227)
    - Column (3): –0.000 (–0.078)
  - Constant
    - Column (1): –0.035 (–0.353)
    - Column (2): –0.038 (–0.933)
    - Column (3): –0.066 (–1.507)

### Key Statistics and Diagnostics
- Observations: 278278278
- Number of countries: 737373
- AR 2: 0.01860.1370.185
- Hansen: 0.2530.7970.361
- Instruments: 557368

*Source: IMF staff calculations.*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/boxfigure2-1-1.pdf_